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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N: Bay Of 
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Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 21:16:00 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 210730
       SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF
       BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT
0600 UTC OF
       21.03.2022 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 21.03.2022.
       SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY
       OF BENGAL
       THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST
       BAY OF BENGAL, MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS W ITH A SPEED OF 20
KMPH
       DURING LAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY,
21ST MARCH,
       OVER THE SAME REGION, NEAR LATITUDE 12.3ON AND LONGITUDE
93.8OE, ABOUT
       140 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR (43333), 120 KM SOUTHEAST
OF
       MAYABUNDAR (43309) AND 560 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON
(48097).
                IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT
       12 HRS. IT W OULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS ALONG &
OFF
       ANDAMAN ISLANDS TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS AND
CROSS
       MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN LATITUDE 180N & 190N AROUND THANDWE
(MYANMAR)
       DURING AROUND 0000 UTC OF 23RD MARCH.
       FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
          DATE/TIME(UTC)                 POSITION       MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF
                                      (LAT. 0N/ LONG.           WIND
SPEED (KMPH)                             CYCLONIC
                                             0
                                              E)
DISTURBANCE
            21.03.22/0300                 12.3/93.8
55-65 GUSTING TO 75                  DEEP DEPRESSION
            21.03.22/1200                 13.7/93.9
65-75 GUSTING TO 85                  CYCLONIC STORM
            22.03.22/0000                 15.1/93.8
65-75 GUSTING TO 85                  CYCLONIC STORM
            22.03.22/1200                 16.9/93.9
55-65 GUSTING TO 75                  DEEP DEPRESSION
            23.03.22/0000                 18.5/94.3
45-55 GUSTING TO 65                     DEPRESSION
       AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS
CHARACTERISED AS T 2.0.
       ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
TO VERY
       INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY OF
       BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.0N & 15.5N AND LONGITUDE 91.0E &
97.0E AND ANDAMAN
       & NICOBAR ISLANDS. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS AROUND
MINUS 93 DEG C.
       THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS FURTHER ORGANISED DURING PAST 6
HOURS .
       MULTISATELLITE BASED WINDS INDICATE INCREASE IN AREAL
EXTENSION UPTO
       NORTHWEST SECTOR.

       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING
       SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002 HPA.
       REMARKS:
       SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 29-300C OVER ANDAMAN SEA,
SOUTHEAST AND
       ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB). TROPICAL CYCLONE
HEAT POTENTIAL IS
       AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION BECOMING LESS THAN 50
KJ/CM2 OVER
       NORTH BOB. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX CURRENTLY
LIES IN PHASE 3
       WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR
NEXT 2 DAYS AND
       MOVE TO PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING MORE THAN 1. THE
PHASE AND
       AMPLITUDE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION AND
HENCE
       CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE BOB DURING NEXT 2 DAYS.
       LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 NEAR SYSTEM CENTRE
WITH VERTICAL
       EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
INCREASED DURING
       PAST 3 HOURS AND IS 30X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. UPPER
       LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 20 X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
       VERTICAL W IND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE WITH
       DECREASING TREND (BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS) ALONG THE EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE
       SYSTEM. CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS LYING
IN FAVOURABLE
       ENVIRONMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SEEN IN UPPER LEVELS. THE
SYSTEM IS
       TRACKING NORTHW ARDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE LYING
TO ITS
       NORTHEAST OVER MYANMAR & ADJOINING THAILAND. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS
       SEEN NEAR 170N.
       NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM DURING
       NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS
REGARDING
       NORTHWARDS MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST. HOW
EVER,
       THERE IS DIVERGENCE W RT LANDFALL POINT.
       IN VIEW OF ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A
       CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HRS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY
       NORTHWARDS ALONG & OFF ANDAMAN ISLANDS TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST
       DURING NEXT 48 HRS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST AROUND 0000 UTC OF
23RD
       MARCH.

THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,.
PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECIFIC
BULLETINS=

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