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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 22:05:47 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 272205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 10N75W 
southwestward to 07N78W to 06N87W to 04N96W to 04N103W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that its transitions to the 
ITCZ to 04N114W to 05N126W to 06N131W and to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm
north of the trough between 86W-87W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 86W-91W, also within 
180 nm north of the ITCZ between 123W-127W, within 120 nm north 
of the ITCZ between 119W-123W and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ
between 116W-121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The latest ASCAT pass over the Gulf of Tehunatepec shows 
north to northeast winds of 20-25 kt there. This winds reach
southward to near 14N. The latest altimeter data pass over this 
same area shows that wave heights have subsided 5-7 ft in the 
Gulf, but higher wave heights of 8-10 ft were downwind of the 
Gulf from 13 to 14N between 95W-98W. Since the time the 
ASCAT was received, these wave heights have subsided slightly.

The pressure gradient over southern Mexico has continued to 
slacken as higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues to 
shift east-northeastward. Winds across Tehuantepec will diminish 
late tonight into early Mon, becoming light and variable on Mon 
afternoon. The wave heights downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
will subside to less than 8 ft late tonight.

Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by a 1015 mb high
center west of the area near 24N120W remains over the offshore 
waters. The associated weak pressure gradient is producing light 
to gentle northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of 
Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in northwest 
swell. Light southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, 
and increase to moderate across far north portions. Wave heights 
are generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in the southern 
section where they are slightly higher of 3-4 ft. Elsewhere 
offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds are 
present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in northwest swell 
mixing with small south swell.

Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across
the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun
afternoon, as weak high pressure dominates the region. Fresh 
southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of 
California early this evening, then become fresh to strong from 
the southwest tonight through Mon and increase further to near 
gale-force Mon night ahead of an approaching cold front. A 
vigorous deep-layered low pressure offshore of northern 
California along 134W will move into southern California late 
Mon, preceded by a cold front. The front will usher in large 
northwest swell across the waters west of Baja California 
beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-14 ft across the outer
waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja 
Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds across the 
northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to near 8 ft 
by Mon evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The earlier fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds across 
the Papagayo region have diminished to fresh speeds, however,
the latest ASCAT data passes show an area of fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds removed to the west of the Gulf of 
Papagayo from 09N to 11N between 91W-94W, with wave heights of
6-8 ft.

Winds in the Gulf of Panama have diminished slightly to moderate 
speeds.  Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with wave heights of 
4-6 ft in south swell. Winds across the Papagayo region will 
continue to pulse to fresh to strong at night through Tue 
morning. Fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will diminish slightly on Mon, then pulse back up to fresh 
speeds Mon night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or
weaker into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1015 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 24N120W. The 
weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge 
and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in
only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 16N 
and west of about 120W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 
ft range. A cold front extends from near 30N128W to 27N134W to 
25N140W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 120 nm east 
of the front north of 29N. A recent ship observation indicated
southwest winds of 25 Kt near 29N126W, with wave heights to 7 
ft.

Strong northwest to north winds are behind the front, with wave 
heights of 8-11 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds 
prevail elsewhere between 120W and the front, with seas of 5-6 
ft.

The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken 
today as it shifts east-southeastward in response to the cold 
front. This trend will maintain weak trade winds through Mon, 
except moderate to fresh winds developing late Sun west of 130W. 
Strong and active convection is currently occurring along and 
near the ITCZ from 02N to 08N between 118W-126W, and from 07N to 
10N between 131W-137W.

The cold front precedes a rather robust extratropical low of 991
mb north of the area near 36N133W producing storm force winds. 
The low is expected to weaken as it tracks east-southeastward 
toward southern California tonight through Mon. This low will 
drag the cold front to a position from near 30N113W to 24N1281W 
and dissipating to 22N140W by early Mon afternoon, and from 
northern Baja California to 24N120W and dissipating to 21N131W by
early Tue. Northwest to north swell from this system will 
propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 
ft wave heights reaching to a line from near Cabo San Lazaro, 
Baja California Sur to 12N119W to 14N129W and to 07N140W by Tue 
night.

$$
Aguirre


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