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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion...updated 
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Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2022 00:21:18 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 280021
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0021 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022

Updated Remainder of the Area

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 10N75W 
southwestward to 07N78W to 06N87W to 04N96W to 04N103W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that its transitions to the 
ITCZ to 04N114W to 05N126W to 06N131W and to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm
north of the trough between 86W-87W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 86W-91W, also within 
180 nm north of the ITCZ between 123W-127W, within 120 nm north 
of the ITCZ between 119W-123W and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ
between 116W-121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The latest ASCAT pass over the Gulf of Tehunatepec shows north 
to northeast winds of 20-25 kt there. These winds reach 
southward to near 14N. The latest altimeter data pass over this 
same area shows that wave heights have subsided 5-7 ft in the 
Gulf, but higher wave heights of 8-10 ft were downwind of the 
Gulf from 13 to 14N between 95W-98W. Since the time the ASCAT 
was received, these wave heights have subsided slightly.

The pressure gradient over southern Mexico has continued to 
slacken as higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues to 
shift east-northeastward. Winds across Tehuantepec will diminish 
late tonight into early Mon, becoming light and variable on Mon 
afternoon. The wave heights downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
will subside to less than 8 ft late tonight.

Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by a 1015 mb high
center west of the area near 24N120W remains over the offshore 
waters. The associated weak pressure gradient is producing light 
to gentle northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of 
Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in northwest 
swell. Light southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, 
and increase to moderate across far north portions. Wave heights 
are generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in the southern 
section where they are slightly higher of 3-4 ft. Elsewhere 
offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds are 
present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in northwest swell 
mixing with small south swell.

Fresh southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf 
of California early this evening, then become fresh to strong 
from the southwest tonight through Mon and increase further to 
near gale-force Mon night ahead of an approaching cold front. A 
strong cold front associated to a large extratropical storm 
system that will move toward southern California on Mon will 
usher in large northwest swell across the waters west of Baja 
California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-14 ft 
across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching 
the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest 
winds across the northern Gulf of California will build wave 
heights to near 8 ft by Mon evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The earlier fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds across 
the Papagayo region have diminished to fresh speeds, however,
the latest ASCAT data passes show an area of fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds removed to the west of the Gulf of 
Papagayo from 09N to 11N between 91W-94W, with wave heights of
6-8 ft.

Winds in the Gulf of Panama have diminished slightly to moderate 
speeds. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with wave heights of 4-6 
ft in south swell. Winds across the Papagayo region will 
continue to pulse to fresh to strong at night through Tue 
morning. Fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will diminish slightly on Mon, then pulse back up to fresh 
speeds Mon night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate 
or weaker into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Updated

A 1015 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 24N120W. The 
weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge 
and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in
only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 16N 
and west of about 120W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 
ft range. A cold front extends from near 30N128W to 27N134W to 
25N140W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 120 nm east 
of the front north of 29N. Strong northwest to north winds are 
west of the front, with wave heights of 8-12 ft. Higher wave 
heights of 11-14 ft are north of 28N. A recent ship observation 
indicated southwest winds of 25 kt near 29N126W along with wave 
heights to 7 ft.

Strong northwest to north winds are behind the front, with wave 
heights of 8-11 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds 
prevail elsewhere between 120W and the front, with seas of 5-6 
ft.

Weak high pressure over the area associated to the 1015 mb high 
center is maintaining weak trade winds, except for west of about 
122W where fresh northeast trades are present. These winds will 
change little into Mon. The area of fresh trade winds begins to 
expand in coverage late Mon afternoon or evening and through Tue.

Convection remains rather active along and near the ITCZ from 
02N to 08N between 118W-128W, and from 07N to 12N between 131W-
138W.

The aforementioned cold front precedes a rather robust 
extratropical low of 991 mb north of the area near 36N133W 
producing storm force winds. The low is expected to weaken as it 
tracks east-southeastward toward southern California Mon into 
Tue. This low will drag the cold front to a position from near 
30N121W to 24N128W and dissipating to 22N140W by early Mon 
afternoon, and from northwestern Mexico to across Baja 
California Sur and to near 22N128W by early Tue afternoon. 
Northwest to north swell from this storm system will propagate 
southward across the area while losing energy, with the leading 
edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to a line from near 20N109W 
to 12N116W to 09N123W to 06N140W by early on Wed. Maximum wave 
heights at that time are expected to be about 10 ft. Wave 
heights north and northeast of a line from 30N122W to 24N136W to 
30N138W are expected to be less than 8 ft also by early on Wed.
  
$$
Aguirre


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