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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220328004224.0FFBE1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2022 00:42:24 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 280037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9 S / 79.8 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

36H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

48H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

60H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

120H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CLEARLY WEAKENED. IT
STILL PERSISTS IN THE SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED UP SINCE 18Z. THE 2238Z AND 2311Z SSMIS PASS SHOW NEVERTHELESS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN 37COLOR IS STILL QUITE MARKED. IN
VIEW OF THE LAST SATCON ANALYSIS AND OF THESE ELEMENTS, THE INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 45KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA REMAINS ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID TO HIGH LEVELS
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. TODAY AND TOMORROW, HALIMA WILL PROGRESSIVELY
SLOW DOWN, ROUNDING A LARGE RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE POSITIONED
BETWEEN 10S-20S AND 60S-80S. BEYOND THAT, HALIMA SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AGAIN BY DRIFTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK AND POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (RIDGE PRESENT IN
THE NORTHEAST DRIVING A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW).
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THIS PART OF THE TRACK AND THE TRAJECTORY
WILL DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS EXCLUDING SOME MODELS LIKE GFS. THE LATEST GFS RUNS,
DIVERGING FROM MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS, DID NOT SEEM CONSISTENT WITH
THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF HALIMA, MAKING IT LESS BELIEVABLE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY
FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION ANYMORE. THE DEEP SHEAR IS
INCREASING BUT THE SYSTEM IS RESISTING QUITE WELL PROBABLY BECAUSE OF
ITS MOTION IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IMPACTED BY DRY
AIR INTRUSIONS IN THE MID LEVELS, DUE TO THE SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
GUIDELINES DIVERGE FROM TUESDAY. TWO OPTIONS ARE EMERGING: THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OR A MORE OR LESS
TEMPORARY RE-INTESIFICATION WITH A SYSTEM BENEFITING FROM LOWER SHEAR
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE RSMC FAVORS A COMPROMISE WITH THE
MAINTENANCE AT THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE UP TO WEDNESDAY IN RELATION
WITH THE DECREASE OF SHEAR (AND STILL QUITE WARM WATERS), FOLLOWED BY
A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING LATER THIS WEEK.

TROPICAL STORM HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO POPULATED AREAS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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