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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2022 03:25:42 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 280325
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 11N74W 
to 06.5N80W to 06.5N85W to 03.5N100W. The ITCZ continues from
03.5N100W to 06N133W and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 0.5N to 08N between 84W
and 97W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 0.5N to 08N between 111W and 128W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 131W and 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Weak high pressure ridging anchored by a 1015 mb high center 
near 25N117W remains over the offshore waters. The associated 
weak pressure gradient is producing light to gentle winds across
the waters offshore of Baja south and southeastward to Salina
Cruz. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in northwest swell except to 6 ft
across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Light southerly winds 
prevail in the Gulf of California, and increase to moderate to
fresh across far north portions. Wave heights are generally low 
in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in the southern section where they 
are slightly higher of 3-4 ft. 

Fresh N to NE winds continue across the Gulf of Tehunatepec and
extend offshore to 15N, with seas of 5-6 ft. Fresh NE to E winds
continue from there to the outer boundary of the offshore waters
of Oaxaca, and are maintaining seas of 6-8 ft. The pressure 
gradient over southern Mexico has continued to slacken as higher 
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues to shift east-
northeastward. Winds across Tehuantepec will pulse briefly to
strong during the next several hours and then diminish late 
tonight into early Mon, becoming light and variable on Mon 
afternoon. The wave heights downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
will subside to less than 8 ft late tonight.

Fresh southerly winds across the far northern Gulf of California
early this evening will become fresh to strong from the 
southwest tonight through Mon and increase further to near gale- 
force Mon night ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas will
build to near 8 ft during this time. A strong cold front 
associated to a large extratropical storm system that will move 
toward southern California on Mon will usher in large northwest 
swell across the waters west of Baja California beginning Mon 
evening, building seas to 9-15 ft across the outer waters of 
Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja Sur by Tue 
evening. The strong southwest winds across the northern Gulf of 
California will build wave heights to near 8 ft by Mon evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh easterly gap winds to near 20 kt continue across the 
Papagayo region, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh east winds prevail
further offshore to the outer boundary of the El Salvador
offshore waters, and are maintaining seas there of 6-8 ft. 
Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama are moderate to fresh with 
seas of 3-5 ft and increase to 6-7 ft to the S of 06N. 

Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh
to strong at night through Tue morning. Fresh north to northeast
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly on Mon, then 
pulse back up to fresh speeds Mon night. Elsewhere, winds are 
forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1015 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 25N117W. The 
weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge 
and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in
only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 15N 
and west of about 115W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7
ft range, except 7 to 8 ft to W of 137W. A strong late season cold
front extends from near 30N125W to 26N131W to 23N140W. Fresh to 
strong southwest winds are within 120 nm east of the front north 
of 27N. Strong northwest to west winds are W of the front, with 
wave heights of 8-17 ft in NW to N swell. Light and variable 
winds prevail elsewhere between 120W and the front, with seas of 
5-6 ft.

The aforementioned cold front precedes a rather robust 
extratropical low of 993 mb north of the area near 35N131W 
producing strong gale force winds. The low is expected to weaken
as it tracks east-southeastward toward southern California Mon 
into Tue. This low will drag the cold front to a position from 
near 30N121W to 24N128W tonight, and to 22N140W by early Mon 
afternoon, and from northwestern Mexico to across Baja California
Sur and to near 22N128W by early Tue afternoon. Northwest to 
north swell from this system will propagate southward across the
area, with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to a 
line from near 20N109W to 12N116W to 09N123W to 06N140W by early 
on Wed. Maximum wave heights at that time are expected to be 
about 10 ft. Wave heights north and northeast of a line from 
30N122W to 24N136W to 30N138W are expected to subside less than 
8 ft by early on Wed.
  
$$
Stripling


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