Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220328071253.BEAA81C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2022 07:12:53 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-To: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Sender: wx-tropl-request@lists.illinois.edu
Archived-At: <https://lists.illinois.edu/lists/arcsearch_id/wx-tropl/2022-03/20220328071253.BEAA81C0EEF%40weather.cod.edu>
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1648451577-4378-1196"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1648451577-4378-1196
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 280632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 80.4 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110

24H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 110

36H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 110

48H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 405 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 110

60H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 415 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 110

72H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 445 SW: 305 NW: 175

120H: 2022/04/02 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER BECOMES PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO WIND SHEAR. THIS
MORNING'S SCATTEROMETRIC DATA SHOW THE PRESENCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT (48KT ON THE 0421Z ASCAT-C, TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THAT THERE IS AN UNDERESTIMATION IN THESE WIND RANGES). ON
THE OTHER HAND, THE WIND STRUCTURE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ASYMMETRICAL
AND SLIGHTLY ELONGATED UNDER THE EFFECT OF SHEAR. DESPITE A DVORAK
ANALYSIS GIVING A CI OF 3.0 PENALIZED BY THE SYSTEM'S SHEARED
PATTERN, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
DATA AND ESTIMATED AT 50KT AT 06UTC. IN ORDER TO KEEP GOOD
CONSISTENCY AND TEMPORAL CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ANALYSES, THE
INTENSITY OF THE 00UTC ANALYSIS, WHICH WAS ESTIMATED AT 45KT, HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50KT IN THE BEST-TRACK.

HALIMA IS CURRENTLY ON AN EASTWARD TRACK BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID TO HIGH TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, HALIMA WILL SLOW DOWN WHILE MAKING A
TURN IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND
POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS ON
THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE GIVING A
LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DEEP SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AT ITS MAXIMUM, BUT
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELATIVELY RESILIENT SO FAR BECAUSE OF ITS RAPID
MOVEMENT IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY WHILE THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
SHEAR-DRIVEN INTRUSIONS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY DIVERGENT FROM TUESDAY, WITH TWO MAIN OPTIONS :
A CONTINUATION OF THE WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OR A MORE OR LESS
TEMPORARY RE-INTENSIFICATION THANKS TO TEMPORARILY WEAKER SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THE RSMC OPTS FOR A COMPROMISE, KEEPING
THE SYSTEM AT TROPICAL STORM STAGE UNTIL MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

------------=_1648451577-4378-1196
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
MIME-Version: 1.0

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1648451577-4378-1196--