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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2022 09:13:34 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 280913
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0810 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 09.5N75W 
to 06.5N81W to 07N85W to 04.5N97W. The ITCZ continues from 
04.5N97W to 08N132W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07.5N between 82W
and 95W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 00N to 08N between 107W and 133W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Weak high pressure ridging anchored by a 1016 mb high center 
near 22N115W remains across the offshore waters. The associated 
weak pressure gradient is producing light to gentle W to NW winds
across the waters offshore of Baja California, and NW to N winds  
southward to 17N. Moderate northerly winds prevail along and near
the coast of Cabo Corrientes, becoming light and variable further 
southeast to Salina Cruz. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in northwest 
swell except to 6 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Light
southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, and increase 
to moderate to fresh across far north portions. Wave heights are 
generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in northern portions 
where seas are 3-4 ft. 

Fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Tehunatepec and extend offshore to 14.5N, with peak seas of 6 
ft. Fresh NE to E winds continue from there to the outer boundary
of the offshore waters of Oaxaca, and are maintaining seas of 
6-7 ft. The pressure gradient over southern Mexico has continued
to slacken as higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues 
to shift east-northeastward. Winds across Tehuantepec have pulsed
briefly to strong tonight but will diminish by sunrise into 
early Mon, becoming light and variable on Mon afternoon. The wave
heights downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside to
around 6 ft by morning.

Freshening southerly winds across the far northern Gulf of 
California tonight will become fresh to strong from the 
southwest Mon morning and increase further to near gale-force 
Mon evening and night ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas 
will build to near 8 ft during this time. A strong cold front 
associated to a large extratropical storm system will move 
toward southern California on Mon and will usher in large 
northwest swell across the waters west of Baja California 
beginning late Mon afternoon, building seas to 9-15 ft across 
the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters
of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds across 
the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to near 8
ft by Mon evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh easterly gap winds to around 20 kt continue across the 
Papagayo region, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh east winds prevail 
further offshore to the outer boundary of the El Salvador 
offshore waters, and are maintaining seas there of 6-8 ft. 
Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama are moderate to fresh with 
seas of 3-5 ft and increase to 6-7 ft to the S of 06N. Winds 
across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to 
strong at night through Wed morning. Fresh north to northeast 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly on Mon, then 
pulse back up to fresh speeds Mon night. Elsewhere, winds are 
forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1016 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 22N115W. The 
weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge 
and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in
only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 15N 
between 100W and 120W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 
ft range. A strong late season cold front extends from near 
30N123W to 23N133W to 22N140W. Fresh to strong southwest winds 
are within 90 nm east of the front north of 28N. Strong 
northwest to west winds are W of the front to the N of 28N.
Recent satellite altimeter data measured wave heights to 24 ft
along 30N immediately behind the front, which is several feet
higher that global wave models have predicted. The leading edge
of associated large N to NW swell is along and just ahead of the
front to the E of 130W. High pressure NW of the front is
producing an increased pressure gradient to the N of the ITCZ and 
west of 130W, where fresh trade winds are occurring. Light and 
variable winds prevail elsewhere between 110W and 130W and the 
front, with seas of 5-6 ft.

The aforementioned cold front precedes a rather robust 
extratropical low of 996 mb north of the area near 35N129W 
producing strong gale force winds. The low is expected to
gradually weaken as it tracks east-southeastward toward southern
California Mon into Tue. This low will drag the cold front into
the Baja Norte offshore waters Mon afternoon, and reach from 
northwestern Mexico to across Baja California Sur and to near 
20N130W by early Tue afternoon. Northwest to north swell from 
this system will propagate southward across the area, with the 
leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching 20N late Mon afternoon
and to 11N by Tue afternoon. Seas across the waters N of 20N are
not expected to begin to diminish until Thu.
  
$$
Stripling


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