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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220328133400.6B9981C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2022 13:34:00 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 281229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 81.1 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/04/02 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED UPSHEAR
IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION, ENABLING THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BECOME A BIT MORE CENTERED BELOW THE SYSTEM'S
CONVECTION AREA. THE SYSTEM HAS THUS CHANGED FROM A SHEARED PATTERN
TO A PATTERN RESEMBLING A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND ABOUT 0.75 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL, BUT REMAINS MORE ACTIVE TO THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE
SHEAR, WHICH IS STILL VERY PRESENT. THE 1110Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
CONFIRMS THIS EVOLUTION. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO RESIST QUITE WELL TO THE
DEEP WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 TO 25
KT, AND THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASING, AS INDICATED
BY THE CIMSS ANALYSIS. HALIMA'S INTENSITY IS THUS MAINTAINED AT 50KT,
LIKE AT 06UTC, REMAINING HIGHER THAN BOTH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS
AND SATCON, BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS MORNING'S ASCAT DATA AND THE
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF STRUCTURE OBSERVED.

HALIMA REMAINS UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING ON AN EASTWARD TRACK BETWEEN A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID TO HIGH TROPOSPHERE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, HALIMA WILL SLOW DOWN ITS
COURSE AND MAKE A GENERAL NORTHWARD TURN IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND
POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS PART OF THE TRACK BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE FORECAST INTENSITY, WHICH IS ITSELF VERY
UNCERTAIN. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO BETWEEN
THE ENSEMBLE EPS AND DETERMINIST IFS EUROPEAN FORECASTS AND THE
ENGLISH UKMO MODEL, WHICH SEEM TO BETTER TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY AND TRACK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE WEAKENING THAT WAS EXPECTED THIS MONDAY,
LINKED TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS NOT HAPPENED, PROBABLY BECAUSE THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR VECTOR. AS
IT IS CURRENTLY DECREASING, NO PARTICULAR FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. FROM TUESDAY, INTENSITY GUIDANCE
DIVERGES STRONGLY, WITH TWO MAIN OPTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM : PROLONGED
WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OR TEMPORARY RE-INTENSIFICATION THANKS TO
WEAKER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL AROUND MID-WEEK. THE
RSMC'S FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SECOND OPTION, SUGGESTING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THURSDAY. WHILE THE PRESENT FORECAST CLIMBS UP
TO THE TOP OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS
NOT RULED OUT. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, A FINAL WEAKENING PHASE SHOULD
START DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR, BRINGING MASSIVE DRY AIR
INTRUSION OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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