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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2022 16:23:17 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 281622
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia across 05N84W to 
04N97W. An ITCZ continues from 04N97W across 06N120W to beyond 
06N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from EQ 
to 07N between the Colombian coast and 112W, and also from 02N 
to 12N between 112W and 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A surface ridge extends from a 1015 mb high near 21N115W to near
the Gulf of Techuantepec, Mexico. This feature is producing 
gentle to moderate W to NW winds across the waters offshore of 
Baja California, and light to gentle NW to N winds southward to 
17N, including waters near Cabo Corrientes. Sea heights are 4 to 5
ft in NW swell except to 6 ft W of Baja Norte. Gentle to moderate 
southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, and increase 
to moderate to fresh across far north portions. Wave heights are 
generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in northern portions 
where seas are 3-5 ft. 

Fresh N to NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehunatepec and 
extend offshore to 14.5N, with peak seas of 6 ft. Moderat to fresh
NE to E winds continue from there to the outer boundary of the 
offshore waters of Oaxaca, and are maintaining seas of 6-7 ft. 
The pressure gradient over southern Mexico has continued to 
slacken as higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues to 
shift east-northeastward. Winds across Tehuantepec should 
become light and variable later this afternoon.

Fresh to strong SW winds across the far northern Gulf of 
California will increase further to near gale-force by this 
evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas will build to 
near 8 ft early Tue morning. A strong cold front associated with 
a large extratropical storm system just W of southern California
will usher in large northwest swell across the waters W of Baja 
California beginning late this afternoon, building seas to 9-15 
ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte tonight, and reaching 
the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh easterly gap winds to around 20 kt continue across the 
Papagayo region, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh east winds prevail 
further offshore to the outer boundary of the El Salvador 
offshore waters, and are maintaining seas there of 6-8 ft. 
Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama are moderate to fresh with 
seas of 3-5 ft and increase to 6-7 ft to the S of 06N. Winds 
across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to 
strong at night through Wed morning. Fresh north to northeast 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly on Mon, then 
pulse back up to fresh speeds Mon night. Elsewhere, winds are 
forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1016 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 22N115W. The 
weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge 
and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in
only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 15N 
between 100W and 120W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 
ft range. A strong late season cold front extends from near 
30N123W to 23N133W to 22N140W. Fresh to strong southwest winds 
are within 90 nm east of the front north of 28N. Strong 
northwest to west winds are W of the front to the N of 28N.
Recent satellite altimeter data measured wave heights to 24 ft
along 30N immediately behind the front, which is several feet
higher that global wave models have predicted. The leading edge
of associated large N to NW swell is along and just ahead of the
front to the E of 130W. High pressure NW of the front is
producing an increased pressure gradient to the N of the ITCZ and 
west of 130W, where fresh trade winds are occurring. Light and 
variable winds prevail elsewhere between 110W and 130W and the 
front, with seas of 5-6 ft.

The aforementioned cold front precedes a rather robust 
extratropical low of 996 mb north of the area near 35N129W 
producing strong gale force winds. The low is expected to
gradually weaken as it tracks east-southeastward toward southern
California Mon into Tue. This low will drag the cold front into
the Baja Norte offshore waters Mon afternoon, and reach from 
northwestern Mexico to across Baja California Sur and to near 
20N130W by early Tue afternoon. Northwest to north swell from 
this system will propagate southward across the area, with the 
leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching 20N late Mon afternoon
and to 11N by Tue afternoon. Seas across the waters N of 20N are
not expected to begin to diminish until Thu.
  
$$

Chan


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