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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220328190126.0505A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2022 19:01:25 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 281829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 81.9 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95

24H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95

36H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/01 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/04/02 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0+

THERE WAS GOOD ADDITIONAL DATA TO ASSESS THE POSITION, STRUCTURE AND
INTENSITY OF HALIMA TONIGHT: SMOS AND SMAP PASSES ACQUIRED SHORTLY
AFTER 12 UTC SHOWED MAX WINDS AT 47 KT AND 49 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE
ASCAT-B AND C OF 1556Z AND 1647Z INDICATE MAX WINDS OF 44 KT DOWN
FROM THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME AND AFTER THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED THIS EVENING WITH
THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN A LARGE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. A CURVED BAND HAS RECENTLY BEEN RECONSTITUTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE ANNEXED DATA AND ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SATCON OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATE (48 KT 1-MIN AT 1410Z).

THE RELIABLE FIXS OF THE EVENING SHOW THAT HALIMA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND
HAS STARTED TO BEND NORTHWARD. UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING, AN EASTWARD
TRACK IS STILL POSSIBLE BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND A MID TO UPPER LEVELS TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE GENERAL TREND WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN ON A SLOW TRACK IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION IN
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS PART OF THE TRACK BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST, WHICH IS ITSELF VERY UNCERTAIN. THE PRESENT FORECAST
REMAINS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO BETWEEN THE OVERALL AND
DETERMINIST FORECASTS OF THE EUROPEAN IFS MODEL AND THE ENGLISH UKMO
MODEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SLOWDOWN OBSERVED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
SEEMS TO ALLOW THE FAIRLY STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR TO IMPACT THE
SYSTEM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM TUESDAY, THE INTENSITY GUIDELINES
DIVERGE STRONGLY, WITH TWO OPTIONS EMERGING: WEAKENING UNTIL
DISSIPATION OR TEMPORARY RE-INTENSIFICATION THANKS TO WEAKER SHEAR
UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE RSMC REMAINS IN THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND FAVORS OPTION 2, BUT THE LAST IFS RUN, NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
FORECAST, SEEMS TO MAKE THIS OPTION LESS LIKELY. CHANGES ON THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE ON THE NEXT BULLETIN.
IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK AT THE LATEST, A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING
PHASE SHOULD START DUE TO A NEW INCREASE OF THE SHEAR ADVECTING
MASSIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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