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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2022 22:45:12 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 282244
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the Panama-Colombia border to 
04N97W. An ITCZ continues from 04N97W across 07N130W to beyond 
06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from EQ to 07N 
between 83W and 100W, and also from 02N to 12N between 109W and 
120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A cold front extends from Long Beach, CA across the offshore
waters of northern Baja. Scattered showers are seen up to 80 nm E
of the front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are present off the
northern Baja waters. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends from a 
1017 mb high near 21N116W to near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
Mexico. This feature is producing gentle to moderate W to NW 
winds across the waters offshore of southern Baja CA, and light 
to gentle NW to N winds southward to 17N, including waters near 
Cabo Corrientes. Sea heights are 4 to 7 ft in NW swell W of Baja
Norte. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail in the southern
Gulf of California, and increase to fresh to strong across far 
north portions. Wave heights are generally low in the Gulf at 1
to 3 ft, except in northern portions where seas are 5 to 7 ft. 

Moderate NE to ENE winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehunatepec 
and southward to the offshore waters of Oaxaca, seas are 4 to 6 
ft. The pressure gradient over southern Mexico has decreased 
further as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico shifts toward 
Florida. As the high near 1017 mb high drifts eastward Tue, winds
offshore of Puerto Angel will become moderate to fresh by late 
Tue night and Wed morning with seas at 4 to 6 ft.

Fresh to strong SW to WSW winds across the far northern Gulf of 
California will peak at strong to near-gale force later this 
evening ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Seas will build 
to near 8 ft early Tue morning. Large NW to N swell related to
this cold front has arrived at the waters W of Baja, CA, 
expect seas to build to between 9 and 15 ft across the outer 
waters of Baja Norte later tonight, and reaching the waters of 
Baja Sur by Tue evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to occasionally strong easterly gap winds will continue 
across the Papagayo region, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Moderate 
to fresh east winds prevail further offshore to the outer 
boundary of the Nicaragua offshore waters, and are maintaining 
seas at 4 to 6 ft. NE winds in the Gulf of Panama are moderate 
to fresh with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Winds across the Papagayo region
will continue to pulse to between fresh and strong at night 
through Wed morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf 
of Panama will continue through tonight. Elsewhere, winds are 
forecast to be moderate or weaker the rest of this week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A late-season cold front curves from near Long Beach, CA across 
the offshore waters W of northern Baja and 24N125W to 21N140W. 
Scattered showers are found near and up to 100 nm SE of the 
front. Upper-level winds are streaming thick cirrus from 11N to 
20N between 116W and 140W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds along 
with seas at 17 to 21 ft are found W of the northern Baja waters,
N of 26N between 120W and 131W. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds 
and seas at 12 to 17 ft are evident near the front from 24N to 
26N between 121W and 132W.

Gentle to moderate trade winds associated with the 1017 mb high
are noted from 16N to 21N between 115W and 126W. Wave heights in
this area are 5 to 6 ft. A 1024 mb high pressure NW of the front
is causing an increased pressure gradient to the N of the ITCZ 
and W of 130W, where fresh trade winds are occurring. Light and 
variable winds prevail elsewhere between 110W and 130W and the 
front, with seas of 5 to 6 ft.

The low W of the aforementioned cold front is gradually weakening
while approaching the southern CA coast this evening, and this 
trend will continue through Tue. This low will drag the cold 
front deeper into the Baja Norte offshore waters later tonight, 
and reach from NW Mexico to across Baja California Sur and to 
near 20N130W by early Tue afternoon. NW to N swell from this 
system will propagate southward across the area, with the leading
edge of 8 ft seas reaching 17N late tonight and 13N Tue 
afternoon. Seas across the waters N of 20N are not expected to 
begin to diminish until Thu.
  
$$

Chan


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