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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220329010750.4A19C1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 01:07:50 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 290038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 82.4 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/03 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0+

THE HALIMA CLOUD PATTERN HAS RATHER STABILIZED SINCE THE SIGNS OF
WEAKENING OBSERVED DURING YESTERDAY EVENING. A CURVED BAND IS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RECENT SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES SUPPORT THIS STABILIZATION OF THE INTENSITY WHICH IS
THEREFORE LEFT AT 45 KT.

AS ENVISAGED BEFORE, THE TRACK HAS BEEN ORIENTED TO THE EAST DURING
THE NIGHT AFTER THE NORTHEAST SHIFT OBSERVED DURING THE EVENING. THE
GENERAL TREND WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW TRACK IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
DIRECTION UNTIL WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND
POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS ON
THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE
LAST TWO RUNS OF THE AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONVERGE A LITTLE
MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY AND IT IS THEREFORE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION BY
THE CMRS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DEEP AND MEDIUM SHEARS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED LAST NIGHT FROM 25 KT TO NEARLY 15 KT FOR THE DEEP SHEAR.
THIS DECREASE OF SHEAR PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE OBSERVED MAINTENANCE OF
THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION. HALIMA IS NOW EVOLVING UNDER A MEDIUM TO
UPPER LEVELS TROUGH IN A RATHER ATYPICAL ENVIRONMENT FOR A TC. IF THE
SHEAR IS DECREASING, VERY DRY AIR REMAINS ON THE OTHER HAND PRESENT
IN THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOTION AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A WESTERLY SHEAR, THE
PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION ARE DECREASING... BUT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY EXCLUDED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
PLATEAU OF INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 36H BUT FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY
DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD, EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR
FROM THURSDAY. A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM THEN ON.

IN THIS ATYPICAL CONTEXT, THE FORECAST REMAINS GLOBALLY MORE
UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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