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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220329012958.763471C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 01:29:58 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 290030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/290030Z-290600ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
7.6N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 119NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES.  THERE IS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH SOME VISIBLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST
AS SEEN IN THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY.  ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITH BURGEONING RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH GFS
BEING THE BIGGEST PROPONENT FOR THE SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT WITH 93W
REACHING STRONG TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EAST OF THE VIETNAM
COASTLINE, WHILE ECMWF HARDLY RECOGNIZES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND DOES NOT DEVELOP THE SYSTEM. ENSEMBLES HOWEVER HAVE A TIGHT
GROUPING FOR BOTH ECENS AND GEFS, AND BOTH PROPAGATE 93W TO
VIETNAM WITH MOST GEFS AND ECENS MEMBERS RECOGNIZING AT LEAST
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH SYSTEM. OVERALL ASSESSMENT IS
THAT 93W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND INTENSIFY IN THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO LOW.//
NNNN


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