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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 03:52:56 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 290352
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 09.5N74.5W to
07N80W to 03N103W. The ITCZ continues from 03N103W to 06.5N111W
to 07.5N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 01.5S to 09N E of 82W to the coasts,
and from 00N to 07.5N between 82W and 104W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of
the ITCZ W of 112W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A cold front extends across Baja Norte along 116W S-SW and exits
the coast near Ejido Erendira, across the offshore waters of 
northern Baja well offshore to beyond 24N123W. Scattered showers
are seen up to 90 nm E of the front. Moderate to fresh SW winds 
are present across the northern Baja waters. Otherwise, a weak
surface ridge extends nearly E to W along 21N to the south of the
front and to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW 
to W winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters S of
Punta Eugenia becoming N to NE offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Wave 
heights are 3 to 5 ft in NW swell S of Baja Norte. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevail in the southern Punta Eugenia.
However large and powerful NW swell generated behind the cold
front has begun to enter the offshore waters of Baja Norte, where
seas are 5 to 9 ft and quickly building. Inside the Gulf of 
California, S to SW winds have increased to strong across far 
north portions, where seas have built to 5-7 ft. Light to gentle
southerly winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf were 
seas are generally low at 1 to 3 ft.

Further south across the Mexican waters, gentle to moderate NW to
W winds prevail and extend across the Gulf of Tehunatepec and 
southward to the offshore waters of Oaxaca. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
across this area. 

Fresh to strong SW to WSW winds across the far northern Gulf of 
California will peak at strong to near-gale force later tonight
ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Seas will build to 8 ft
in the next few hours and continue through early Tue morning. 
Large NW to N swell related to this cold front will continue to
spread SE across the regional waters tonight through late Wed and 
build seas to between 9 and 15 ft across the outer waters of 
Baja Norte later tonight, and reach the waters of Baja Sur by 
Tue evening, peaking at 8 to 11 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh easterly gap winds will continue across the Papagayo 
region, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh east winds 
prevail further offshore to the outer boundary of the Nicaragua 
offshore waters, and are maintaining seas at 5 to 6 ft. Fresh N
to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama prevail with seas of 4 to 6 
ft. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to 
between fresh and strong at night through Wed morning. Moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will continue 
through tonight. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or 
weaker the rest of this week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

This late-season cold front curves from from the offshore waters
of Baja Norte to across the offshore waters W of northern Baja 
and 24N123W to beyond 21N140W. Scattered showers are found near 
and up to 60 nm SE of the front. Fresh to strong W to NW winds 
along with seas at 167 to 21 ft are found W of the northern Baja
waters, N of 27N between 120W and 131W. Moderate to fresh W to 
NW winds and seas at 12 to 20 ft are evident near the front from
22N to 26N between 121W and 138W.

A 1023 mb high pressure center has shifted SE into the region
tonight, located near 32W142W. The pressure gradient S of the
high and between lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing gentle
to moderate N to NE winds along and to the north of the front
west of 130W, and gentle to moderate trade winds from 06N to 17N
between 110W and 140W. Wave heights south of the front in this 
area are 5 to 6 ft, and 8 to 15 ft in building N swell to the
north of the front. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere 
between 110W and 130W and the front, with seas of 5 to 6 ft.

A 1004 mb low center located W of the aforementioned cold front 
is gradually weakening while approaching the southern CA coast 
tonight, and will move ENE and inland and continue to weaken 
through late Tue. This low will drag the cold front SE across the
Baja Norte offshore waters later tonight, and reach from NW 
Mexico to across Baja California Sur and to near 20N130W by early
Tue afternoon. NW to N swell from this system will propagate 
southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft seas 
reaching 17N late tonight and 13N Tue afternoon. Seas across the 
waters N of 20N are not expected to begin to diminish until Thu.
  
$$
Stripling


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