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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220329060600.1E08C1C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 06:06:00 +0000
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ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.6N 118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 116.2E, APPROXIMATELY
593NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. THE POSITION FOR 93W WAS
RELOCATED BASED ON A 290211Z ASCAT-C IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A
DEVELOPING, ELONGATED CIRCULATION ADJACENT TO A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT
EASTERLIES OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS (5-15
KNOTS) ELSEWHERE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO
THE EASTERN QUADRANT SUGGESTING A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 282236Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC, HOWEVER, FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST
VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPING
QUICKLY WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD VIETNAM. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW A SIMILAR FORECAST TRACK BUT
WEAKER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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