Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220329071950.F27AE1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 07:19:50 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-To: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Sender: wx-tropl-request@lists.illinois.edu
Archived-At: <https://lists.illinois.edu/lists/arcsearch_id/wx-tropl/2022-03/20220329071950.F27AE1C0EEF%40weather.cod.edu>
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1648538393-119452-1575"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1648538393-119452-1575
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 290628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 82.6 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 55

36H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

60H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/02 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/03 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM'S CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS
BECOME A BIT MORE COMPLETE THAN LAST NIGHT, WRAPPING MORE THAN HALF
WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN ALSO HINTS AT A SLIGHTLY
LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS LEADS TO A SLIGHT INCREASE OF
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS. A 0052Z SMOS PASS SHOWS WINDS REACHING UP
TO 49 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA BETWEEN 03
AND 04Z, WHICH ONLY SAMPLED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION, SHOW
WINDS UP TO 42 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS INDICATES THAT
SINCE LAST NIGHT AND UNTIL NOW, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN AT THE LIMIT
BETWEEN THE STAGES OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM. THE INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 45 KT, STILL ABOVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS AND SATCON. LOCAL WINDS UP TO 50 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.

HALIMA'S TRACK IS CURRENTLY MAKING A NORTHWARD TURN AND WILL REMAIN
ON THIS GENERAL DIRECTION UNTIL WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK AND CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. FROM FRIDAY, DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING, THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD IN
THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WINDS FLOW. THERE IS STILL QUITE A HIGH
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM DECREASE
WIND SHEAR (ONLY 10 TO 15 KT THIS TUESDAY) WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MIDDAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER A MID TO HIGH
TROPOSPHERE TROUGH IN A RATHER ATYPICAL ENVIRONMENT FOR A CYCLONIC
SYSTEM. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE IN THE SHORT TERM, ON THE
OTHER HAND SOME VERY DRY AIR REMAINS PRESENT IN THE IMMEDIATE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT AND
THE PERSISTENCE OF SLIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR, THE PROBABILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS QUITE LOW BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST EXPECTS A PLATEAU OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS BUT SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THIS PERIOD (THE
FORECAST'S UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY ABOVE NORMAL). FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD, EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR FROM THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE
SYSTEM'S FINAL WEAKENING BY THE WEEK-END.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

------------=_1648538393-119452-1575
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
MIME-Version: 1.0

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1648538393-119452-1575--