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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 09:34:02 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 290933
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0810 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N74W to 07.5N85W
to 04N105W. The ITCZ continues from 04N105W to 05.5N128W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 02.5S to 07N E of 82W to the coasts, and from 00N to 03.5N 
between 82W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 94W and 118W, and
from 06N to 09.5N between 127W and 134W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A cold front extends from NW Mexico and enters the far northern
Gulf of California along 114W, then crosses Baja Norte and exits
into the Pacific waters just south of Punta San Carlos then
continues SW across the offshore waters to beyond 24N120W.  
Scattered showers are seen up to 90 nm SE of the front to the
west of 117W. Strong SW winds to around 30 kt are present across
the northern Baja waters north of 30N. A 0230 UTC Jason-3
altimeter satellite pass measured seas to 8 ft across this area. 
Fresh W to NW winds prevail across the offshore waters W of Punta
Eugenia and increase to strong westerly winds to the north of
28N. Seas across this area are 6 ft near Punta Eugenia and
increase quickly farther offshore to the NW, to 15 ft in building
NW swell across the outer waters near 30N. To the south of the 
front, a weak surface ridge extends ESE to offshore of Cabo 
Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere 
across the offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia becoming N to NE 
offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Wave heights are 4 to 5 ft in NW 
swell S of Baja Norte. Gentle to moderate westerly gap winds 
have developed across the southern Gulf of California, with 
zones of strong gusty W winds. Further south across the Mexican 
waters, gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail and extend 
across the Gulf of Tehunatepec and southward to the offshore 
waters of Oaxaca. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this area. 

Fresh to strong SW to WSW winds across the far northern Gulf of 
California are presently peaking, and producing gale force wind
gusts, and very rough seas. AS the cold front moves SE tonight
through Tue morning, this area of strong WSW winds will shift
gradually southward across the Gulf and slowly diminish. Large 
NW to N swell associated with this cold front will continue to 
spread SE across the regional waters tonight through late Wed and
build seas to between 9 and 15 ft across all the waters of Baja 
Norte by early Tue, then reach the waters of Baja Sur Tue
afternoon and evening, peaking at 8 to 11 ft. Seas will begin to
subside Wed and fade to 7-8 ft on Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds prevail across the Papagayo 
region, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh N to NE winds in the 
Gulf of Panama prevail with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Winds across the 
Papagayo region will continue to pulse to between fresh and 
strong at night through Wed morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will continue through tonight. 
Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker the rest 
of this week. New SSW swell will move into the regional waters 
late Tue through Wed night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

This late-season cold front curves from from the offshore waters
of Baja Norte to 24N120W then weakens across the open waters to
20N140W. Scattered showers are found near and up to 90 nm SE of 
the front. Fresh to strong NW winds along with seas of 12 to 18 
ft are found W of the northern Baja waters, N of 27N between 120W
and 125W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail elsewhere W of
the front to about 135W. Some of the largest seas of this winter
season are moving through the waters W of 125W tonight, where
seas north of the front are 8 to 18 ft in NW swell.

A 1024 mb high pressure center has shifted SE into the region
behind the front tonight, located near 32W141W. The pressure 
gradient S of the high and between lower pressure along the ITCZ 
is producing moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds along and 
to the north of the front west of 130W, and south of the front to
near 06N between 118W and 140W. Wave heights south of the front 
in this area are 6 to 7 ft, except 8 to 9 ft near the front, and
9 to 15 ft in building N swell to the north of the front. Light 
and variable winds prevail elsewhere between 110W and 125W and 
the front, with seas of 5 to 6 ft.

A 1007 mb low center located NW of the aforementioned cold front
is gradually weakening while nearing the southern CA coast 
tonight, and will move ENE and inland and continue to weaken 
through late Tue. This low will drag the cold front SE across the
Baja Norte offshore waters tonight, and reach from NW Mexico to 
across Baja California Sur and to near 20N130W by early Tue 
afternoon. Large NW to N swell from this system will propagate 
southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft seas 
reaching 15N by sunrise and 11N Tue afternoon. Seas across the 
waters N of 20N are not expected to begin to diminish until Thu.
  
$$
Stripling


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