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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220329095943.222011C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 09:59:43 +0000
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261 
AWIO20 FMEE 290956

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/29 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO20 and WTIO30 031/10 on the Moderate Tropical Storm HALIMA issued at 06UTC. Next warnings at 12 UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin is in a monsoon trough pattern (MT) between 55oE and 75oE. Convective activity is located mainly on the equatorial side of this MT east of 70oE and more modestly near HALIMA.

Moderate Tropical Storm HALIMA :

Position at 09UTC : 21.5oS / 82.6oE

Movement : North at 5 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 45 kt

Estimated minimum central pressure : 989 hPa
For more information on this system, please refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO31 issued at 06UTC and followings.

Elsewhere in the basin, there are no areas with cyclogenesis potential for the next 5 days.

There is no risk of another moderate tropical storm forming over the basin in the next 5 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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