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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220329131920.5D62F1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 13:19:20 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 291228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 82.6 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75

24H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95

48H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 185

72H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 185

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/02 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/03 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING CB TOPS (-75/-80C). THE CURVED
BAND PATTERN HAS SHOWN FLUCTUATIONS, BECOMING MORE ASSERTIVE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY ON THE LAST IMAGES, BUT WITHOUT ANY PARTICULARLY
LONG-LASTING STRUCTURE. IN SPITE OF SLIGHTLY DECREASING SATCON AND
DVORAK ESTIMATES, THE RECENT STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS AND IMPROVEMENT
OF SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 12UTC LEAD US TO KEEP THE INTENSITY AT
45 KT, WHILE WAITING FOR FURTHER OBJECTIVE DATA.

A SLOW AND HESITANT NORTHWARD TRACK IS CONFIRMED UNTIL THURSDAY,
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK AND CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. FROM
FRIDAY, DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING, THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TRACK
WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WINDS FLOW. THE DETAIL OF
THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN CONNECTION WITH UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA BENEFITS FROM WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER A
MID TO HIGH TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN A RATHER ATYPICAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
A CYCLONIC SYSTEM. THIS REDUCED SHEAR AS WELL AS THE IMPROVEMENT OF
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY COULD FAVOUR SLIGHT
TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION AROUND WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, THE
PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE SYSTEM'S IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY MAKES
THIS EVOLUTION SOMEHOW FRAGILE, ESPECIALLY AS WIND SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY. THUS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST AT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A POSSIBLE PEAK AT SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE
ON WEDNESDAY, AS SUGGESTED BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL IFS. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD, EXPOSING THE
SYSTEM TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED
WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE FINAL
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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