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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220329193832.607971C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 19:38:32 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 292000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/292000Z-300600ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 114.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY
407NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. THE POSITION FOR 93W WAS
RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS
POSITION BASED ON ANALYSIS OF RECENTLY AVAILABLE DATA INCLUDING; A
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION AT SONG TU TAY, APPROXIMATELY 60NM EAST
OF THE NEW POSITION, REPORTING WINDS SE AT 12KTS INDICATING THE CUSP
OF THE WAVE OR AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MUST BE FURTHER
WEST, AND A 291800Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED WEAK AND
FRAGMENTED LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES AND NASCENT RETURN FLOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
LINES WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED NASCENT RETURN FLOW, SUGGESTING A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST VALUES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPING QUICKLY
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
VIETNAM. ECMWF AND NAVGEM SHOW A SIMILAR FORECAST TRACK BUT WEAKER
DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY CONSIDERING THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: RELOCATED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN


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