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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2022 21:47:51 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 292147
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Mar 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to
09N87W to a low pressure of 1011 mb near 04N101W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 04N104W to 04N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is present E of 81W and N of 05N.
Similar convection is noted from the 02N to 08N and between 85W
and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 03N to 07N
and between 119W and 125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The frontal boundary that extends from a strong low pressure 
system over the SW United States continues to lose definition. It
is now analyzed as a dissipating cold front that is draped 
across Sonora, central Gulf of California and Baja California to 
the offshore Baja waters. No deep convection is noted near the
boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict moderate
to fresh NW winds north of Punta Eugenia and similar W winds in 
the northern Gulf of California waters. Fresh to strong NW winds
are noted north of 30N and E of 120W. NW swell behind the 
weakening frontal boundary results in 8-13 ft seas W of Baja
California Norte and N of 23N, with the highest seas occurring 
near 30N119W. Seas in the northern Gulf of California are in the
4-6 ft range. 

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are found S of Punta Eugenia 
in the Baja offshore waters, along with 5-8 ft seas. In the rest
of the Gulf of California and the remainder of the offshore 
Mexican waters, moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail.
An altimeter satellite pass from earlier this morning depicted seas
up to 6 ft south of the Los Cabos area.

For the forecast, the weakening cold front is expected to
dissipate on Wed as it moves SE across Baja California. Large NW
to N swell associated with the cold front will continue to 
spread SE across the offshore waters through late Wed and peaking
at 8 to 11 ft. Seas will begin to subside Wed and fade to 7-8 ft
on Thu. Primarily moderate to fresh NW winds will persist across
the Baja offshore waters through Fri, then diminish this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the easterly
winds in the Papagayo region have diminished to moderate to
locally strong this afternoon. Seas are 4-6 ft in the region.
Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are found in the Gulf of
Panama, with seas of 3-5 ft, as confirmed by an altimeter pass a
few of hours ago. Elsewhere N of 02N, moderate or weaker winds 
and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. S of 02N, moderate to locally fresh S
to SE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present.

For the forecast, winds across the Papagayo region are expected 
to pulse to between fresh and locally strong tonight through Wed
morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will continue through tonight. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to 
be moderate or weaker the rest of this week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The dissipating cold front extends from central Baja California
to 21N120W. No deep convection is associated with this boundary.
Recent satellite-derived wind data show that the NW winds behind
the frontal boundary have decreased to mainly moderate. The NW-N
swell behind the front results in 8-13 ft wave heights. The 
rest of the basin is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure system 
positioned near 32N142W. The pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics allow 
for fresh trades W of 130W and from 06N and 22N. This was 
confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. An altimeter
satellite pass from a few hours ago detected 10+ ft seas N of 
16N and W of 130W, with the highest seas of 14 ft near 19N134W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft 
prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned dissipating cold front is
forecast to dissipate on Wed. Large NW to N swell will continue
to propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of
8 ft seas reaching 08N Wed morning. Seas across the waters N of 
20N are not expected to begin to diminish until Thu. The 
subtropical ridge will dominate most of the basin through the 
weekend, allowing for a large region of fresh trades W of 130W. 
  
$$
DELGADO


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