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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220330002611.D2F7C1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2022 00:26:11 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 300025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 82.2 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95

24H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/03 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH CLOUD TOPS TEMPORARILY REACHING COLDER
TEMPERATURES (TOPS OF CB UP TO -75/-80C) ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPORARY
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY.
THE STRUCTURE EVOLVES RATHER TOWARDS A SHEARED CONFIGURATION,
PRESENTING AN ARC OF CIRRUS CLOUDS RATHER FAR IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO SUFFER FROM THE PRESENCE OF SURROUNDING DRY AIR,
EVEN IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FOR THE MOMENT RELATIVELY WEAK,
AND LIMITS THE INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR WITHIN THE SYSTEM.
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 45 KT, WHILE WAITING FOR MORE
OBJECTIVE DATA.

A SLOW AND HESITANT TRAJECTORY IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION IS
CONFIRMED UNTIL THURSDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK AND
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. FROM FRIDAY, DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM, THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM SHOULD BE RESUMED WESTWARD IN THE
LOW TROPOSPHERE ALIZE FLOW. THE DETAIL OF THE TRAJECTORY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN IN CONNECTION WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA IS BENEFITING FROM A WEAK TO MODERATE
SHEAR OF THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 KT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS CIRCULATING UNDER A MID TO HIGH TROPO TROUGH IN A RATHER ATYPICAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR A CYCLONIC PHENOMENON. THIS MODEST SHEAR AS WELL AS
THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY,
COULD FAVOUR THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE
IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM MAKES THIS EVOLUTION FRAGILE,
ESPECIALLY AS THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FROM THURSDAY. THUS,
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST AT THE STAGE OF
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARDS, EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-TROPOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.


HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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