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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2022 03:21:45 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 300321 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from low pressure 1008 mb near 08.5N77W
to 06N80W to 08N87W to low pressure 1010 mb near 04N101.5W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N104W to 05.5N112W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted inland and
extends W over waters to 81W from 05S to Panama. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from the 00N to 07.5N 
between 82W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is found from 02.5N to 07.5N and between 102W and 126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The weak remnants of the frontal boundary that has moved through
the area in the past 24 hours can be seen in satellite imagery
extending from offshore of Baja California Sur near 22.5N111W to
beyond 20N120W. Fresh NNW to N winds prevail across the offshore
waters of Baja, with small areas of strong winds along a few
sections of the coast. Large NW swell continues to move across
the regional waters and is producing seas of 8 to 13 ft from Cabo
San Lazaro northward, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere to offshore of Cabo
Corrientes. The highest seas of 11-13 ft prevail offshore of 
Baja Norte and extend to the N of Isla Guadalupe. Gentle to 
moderate northerly winds prevail across most of the Gulf of 
California, with a few small areas of strong NW gap winds along 
the Baja coast. Seas inside the Gulf continue to subside this 
evening, and are generally 2-3 ft except for the gap wind areas, 
where seas are a few feet higher. Gentle to moderate NW to W 
winds prevail across most of the remaining offshore waters from
Cabo Corrientes to Tehuantepec, with highest winds along the
coast. Seas there are 4 to 5 ft. 

High pressure will continue to build modestly across the regional
waters tonight through Wed as the frontal remnants shift further
SSE and dissipate. Large NW swell associated with the cold front
will continue to spread SE across the offshore waters through 
late Wed and peak at 8 to 12 ft tonight across the waters of 
central and southern Baja. Seas will begin to subside Wed and 
fade to 7 to 8 ft on Thu. Primarily moderate to fresh NNW winds 
will persist across the Baja offshore waters through early Fri, 
then diminish through the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong easterly winds cover a small area of the
offshore waters across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore
only about 90 nm before diminishing significantly. Seas are 4-6 
ft in the region. Moderate N-NE winds are found across much of
the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere N of 02N, 
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. S of 02N, 
moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are 
present.

Winds across the Papagayo region are expected to pulse to 
between fresh and locally strong tonight through Wed morning,
then remain moderate to locally fresh for the next few days. 
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will 
continue through tonight, then become variable less than 15 kt
through Fri. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or 
weaker the rest of this week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The dissipating cold front extends from 22.5N111W to 20N120W to
near 19N137W. Scattered light to moderate convection is seen
within 60 nm S of the boundary to the W of 120W. Afternoon 
satellite-derived wind data showed that the winds behind the 
frontal boundary have becoming moderate N to NE. The NW to N 
swell behind the front is resulting in 8-12 ft seas. The rest of
the basin is dominated by a building high pressure ridge 
anchored on a 1031 mb high near 32N140W. The pressure gradient 
between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics allow for fresh trades W of 130W and from 06N to 21N. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft in NW 
swell prevails.

The frontal remnants will sink slowly southward overnight and 
dissipating on Wed. Large NW to N swell will continue to 
propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 
ft seas reaching 08N Wed morning. Seas across the waters N of 20N
are not expected to begin to diminish until Thu. The subtropical
ridge will dominate most of the basin through the weekend, 
allowing for a large region of fresh trades W of 130W. 
  
$$
Stripling


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