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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220330131953.B1D361C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2022 13:19:53 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 301239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 82.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/04/02 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 260 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/03 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2022/04/04 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND
EXTENDED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS SHOWN ON THE 1117Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. SHORTLY AFTER 12 UTC, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION, WHILE
SLOWLY PROGRESSING  NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A
STRONG MID-TROPICAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 30KT BY THE LAST
CIMSS DATA. THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY AND THE MIMIC-TPW STILL DEPICT THE
DRY AIR THAT IS GRADUALLY ENCLOSING THE WARM CORE OF HALIMA. THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS THUS GRADUALLY RELEASED SOUTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTRE. THE MET AND DT STILL ARGUE FOR A FT OF 3.0,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA.
HALIMA IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FOR 40KT.

HALIMA'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK UNTIL FRIDAY, UNDER THE DISTANT INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BEYOND THAT,
HALIMA SHOULD WEAKEN MORE MARKEDLY AND DURABLY, AND SHOULD UNDERGO A
STEERING FLOW AT A LOWER LEVEL, OF LOW AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE; THUS
THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION SHOULD BE RECOVERED AND EVACUATED QUICKLY BY
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, STRENGTHENING FURTHER
SOUTH. DESPITE THE WIDE DISPERSION OF THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS AT THESE PERRIODS, IT IS THEREFORE PRETTY SURE
THAT HALIMA SHOULD START A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION IN TRADE WINDS
FLOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED UNDER A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH, AND IS UNDERGOING WEAK DEEP VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, (DECREASING SINCE THE LAST 24 HOURS). HOWEVER, HALIMA HAS BEEN
UNDER STRONG MID-TROPO VWS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE IMMEDIATE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST OF IT, WILL END UP
ANNIHILATING DEFINITIVELY THE HALIMA'S POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION.
THUS, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST AT THE STAGE
OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM TODAY, OR EVEN TOMORROW THURSDAY. THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK, THE MID-TROPICAL TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD,
EXPOSING THE SYSTEM TO A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH
INCREASED VWS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE FINAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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