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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Ampn/ref A Is A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.// 
Message-ID: <20220330155849.9DE151C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2022 15:58:49 +0000
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WTPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292121ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z --- NEAR 11.8N 110.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 110.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z --- 12.3N 109.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z --- 12.9N 107.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 110.0E.
30MAR22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
220 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 301219Z
AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
FINALLY FORMED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A FORTUITOUS 301343Z
ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 20-
25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THIS ASCAT IMAGE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW RANGE
FROM T1.0 TO T1.5, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
25 KNOTS. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12 THEN TRACK INLAND WHILE
DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 7 FEET.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 292130).//
NNNN


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