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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220330184929.8177B1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 30 Mar 2022 18:49:29 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 301846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 82.7 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 140

36H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2022/04/01 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2022/04/02 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2022/04/02 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/04/03 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH,
REMAINING SHEARED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OF HALIMA. IN THE ABSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVES AND EXPLOITABLE ASCAT
SWATH, THE LOCALIZATION REMAINS DELICATE, ESPECIALLY IN PERIODS OF
SLOW MOVEMENT AS IT IS CURRENTLY THE CASE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
THIS CONFIGURATION ALLOWS AN ESTIMATION OF THE AVERAGE WINDS OVER 10
MINUTES AT 40KT, I.E. HALIMA KEEPS ITS INTENSITY OF MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM.

LITTLE CHANGE IN HALIMA'S TRACK: IT SHOULD REMAIN SLOW AND
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FRIDAY, UNDER THE DISTANT INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE LOCATED NORTH-NORTHEAST. ON
FRIDAY, HALIMA WEAKENING MORE FRANKLY, SHOULD UNDERGO A STEERING FLOW
AT A LOWER LEVEL, OF LOW AND MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE. THUS THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE RECOVERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING FLOW AND
TRANSIT WESTWARD IN THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WIND FLOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER STRONG
MID-TROPOSPHERE STRESS FAVORING THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR IN THE
IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF IT.
IN THIS CONTEXT, HALIMA SHOULD TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE WEAKENING MORE CLEARLY ON FRIDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THE
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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