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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220331005041.7BF501C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2022 00:50:41 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 310043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 83.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

24H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2022/04/02 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2022/04/02 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2022/04/03 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP WELL
INDICATING WEAKENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CAN BE
DEFINED AS SHEARED OR EVEN AS A CURVED BAND FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
SHEAR ANALYSES OF THE CIMSS CONTINUE TO NOTE A SHEAR OF AVERAGE
TROPOSPHERE BUT WEAKENING. THE MORE PRECISE LOCALIZATION POSSIBLE
THANKS TO THE MICROWAVE DATA OF THE NIGHT PLEADS FOR THIS LAST
CONFIGURATION. IT ALSO ALLOWS TO NOTE A MORE PRESENT EAST-NORTH-EAST
ORIENTATION IN THE TRAJECTORY. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.0 IS
MAINTAINED AND ALLOWS AN ESTIMATION OF THE WINDS AT 40KT.

SOME CHANGES IN HALIMA'S TRACK : IT PRESENTS AN EAST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION CERTAINLY PRECURSOR OF A TEMPORARY EASTWARD COMPONENT
DURING THE NEXT HOURS, UNDER THE TEMPORARY MORE PRONOUNCED INFLUENCE
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BUT THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SHOULD REMAIN SLOW OVERALL, POSSIBLY MOVING EAST THEN WEST UNTIL
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, HALIMA WEAKENING MORE FRANKLY, SHOULD UNDERGO A
MORE FRANK STEERING FLOW AT A LOWER LEVEL. THUS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
PICKED UP BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE'S STEERING FLOW AND TRANSIT
WESTWARD INTO THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WIND FLOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER MID-TROPOSPHERE
STRESS, BUT WEAKENING, FAVORING DRY AIR ADVECTION AND THUS LIMITING
CONVECTION. IN THIS CONTEXT, HALIMA SHOULD TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING MORE CLEARLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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