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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220331070327.661671C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 31 Mar 2022 07:03:27 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 310639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 83.7 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2022/04/01 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2022/04/02 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 0

60H: 2022/04/02 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2022/04/03 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HALIMA CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
DEEP CONVECTION OUTBREAKS CONFINED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE ASCAT PASSES OF 0318Z AND 0405Z HAVE ALLOWED TO CLARIFY THE
POSITION, INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF HALIMA. WITH WINDS AT 38-40 KT
READ ON BOTH PASSES, THE INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 40 KT IN
PHASE WITH THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 0404Z AT 45 KT (1-MIN WINDS).

THE SLOW EASTWARDS DRIFT, LINKED TO A STEERING FLOW INFLUENCED BY THE
700-500 HPA LEVELS, SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL NEXT NIGHT BEFORE THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BRINGS BACK THE STEERING FLOW LOWER WITH
FIRST A SITUATION OF BAROMETRIC COL AROUND 850-700 HPA ON FRIDAY
BEFORE A RESUMPTION OF THE STEERING FLOW BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH A TRACK ORIENTED TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM A WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR (LESS THAN 10 KT FROM THE NORTH-WEST
ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS AT 03 UTC) PARTIALLY PRESERVING THE SYSTEM
FROM THE VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. IN THIS
CONTEXT, HALIMA SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY UNTIL TONIGHT BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE OF THE SHEAR
DURING THE NIGHT REINFORCES THE IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR OF THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE ON THE CIRCULATION. HALIMA SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A REMNANT
LOW (DEEP CONVECTION REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE LOW) AND THEN GRADUALLY
FILL IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS TO LOCALLY AND
TEMPORARILY GALE FORCE WINDS, SHOULD MAINTAIN IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, ESSENTIALLY BY GRADIENT EFFECT.

HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO THE LAND AREA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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