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Date: 	Thu, 07 Nov 1996 02:17:21 -0600
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -070217 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 63900
WTPN32 PGTW 070900
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNIE (37W) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- 12.2N5 120.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N5 120.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.0N4 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH QUADRANT
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.9N3 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH QUADRANT
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 14.7N2 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH QUADRANT
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 15.5N1 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 17.2N0 111.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION 12.4N7  119.5E6
TROPICAL STORM ERNIE (37W) IS LOCATED BETWEEN PALAWAN AND
MINDORO MOVING WEST AT 14 KNOTS. THE STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN ERNIE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS
DRIVING THE CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. INTENSIFICATION IS AT A SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, DUE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON, AND THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9), 072100Z0 (DTG
071953Z5), 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7) AND 080900Z7 (DTG
080753Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS
14 FEET. REFER TO WWPW(IO)30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO TYPHOON DALE (36W) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION  38W WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

RECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.0N4 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KW,+J?C,,M:D;;IS;;L>G PV-J,^G^G^G^G^G
=

:RY0ROMAN 10CPITROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

NNNN

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