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Date: 	Fri, 01 Nov 1996 08:37:56 -0600
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -010837 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 82981
WTPN21 PGTW 011430
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 011421Z NOV 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N6
117.6E5 TO 11.3N5 110.7E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 011330Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N8 117.3E2.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA FOR APPROXIMATELY 18 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
APPROXIMATELY 1002 MB. THE SURFACE PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC HAS DROPPED APPROXIMATELY 3 MB OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 021430Z0.//

NNNN

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