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Date:	Thu, 19 Sep 1996 15:41:46 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -191541 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 62874
WTPN33 PGTW 192100
1. TYPHOON VIOLET (26W) WARNING NR 031
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- 24.7N3 132.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N3 132.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 26.1N9 132.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 27.6N5 133.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 29.1N2 134.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 31.1N5 136.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 34.7N4 140.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION 25.0N7  132.2E8
TYPHOON VIOLET (26W) IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS
AN EYE APPROXIMATELY 80 NM IN DIAMETER. IT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN
TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF OUR OBJECTIVE DYNAMICAL
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PATH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT
HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE TRACK.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PAST SYSTEMS IN THIS TYPE OF
SYNOPTIC SITUATION INDICATE THAT AN ALONG TRACK SPEED OF
12 KNOTS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE 48 AND 72 HOUR
TIME FRAMES. TY VIOLET IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN WEAKENING
BEYOND 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
BUT REMAIN AT TYPHOON INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200157Z5), 200900Z1 (DTG
200757Z1), 201500Z8 (DTG 201357Z8) AND 202100Z5 (DTG
201957Z4). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9
IS 34 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM TOM (25W)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TYPHOON WILLIE (27W) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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