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Date:	Wed, 09 Oct 1996 01:26:46 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -090126 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 35130
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/090600Z /100600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/090551Z OCT 96
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 9.0N9 139.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11N2 135E9. THIS
SYSTEM WAS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT. REFER TO REF A (WTPN21 PGTW) FOR FURTHER DETAILS
ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS DISPLAYING CHARACTERISTICS OF A BROAD
MONSOON DEPRESSION. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY ACCURATELY WHERE THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION CENTER IS. ALSO EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY IS THAT THIS CIRCULATION HAS VERY LIMITED
CLOUDINESS AND NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER; A FEW
WEAK CUMULUS CELLS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER ARE ALL
THAT IS PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER. ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM THERE ARE CURRENTLY THREE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
AREAS, EACH LYING BEYOND 250 NM FROM THE CENTER. SYNOPTIC
DATA FROM NEARBY ISLANDS AND SHIPS INDICATES THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION
ARE ALONG THE PERIPHERY, BUT ARE VERY WEAK AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS. NEAR THE CENTER WINDS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND
GRADIENT LEVEL ARE ON THE ORDER OF 02 TO 05 KNOTS. DUE TO
THE VERY WEAK CIRCULATION AND WEAKENING NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM THE FORMATION ALERT WAS CANCELLED, BUT THIS SYSTEM
MAY BE ABLE TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 5.0N5 171.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6N6 165E2. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WITH EXCELLENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. TURNING OF THE
CIRRUS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE
MAY BE FORMING OVER THIS SYSTEM. 09/00Z SYNOPTIC DATA
FROM EBON (WMO 91442; SOUTHERLY AT 10 KT), SHIP C6KP2
(BETWEEN EBON AND KOSRAE; NORTHERLY AT 10 KT), AND KOSRAE
(WMO 91356; NORTHERLY AT 10 KT) INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION EXISTS NEAR 4.8N2 162.5E4. PRESSURE FALLS OF
2 MB ACROSS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL PACIFIC HAVE BEEN NOTED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WINDS APPROACHING 25
KNOTS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN A REGION OF ENHANCED TRADE
WIND FLOW. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) THE AREA CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR
12.0N3 160.0E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14N5 156E2. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AS SUPPORTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT NOT INDICATED BY SYNOPTIC DATA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) TYPE FEATURE MAY BE TRYING TO FORM TO THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA, ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT BEEN A
PERSISTENT FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE IS FAIR TO THE
EAST BUT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 5N5 110E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6N6 108E9. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE JUST NORTHWEST OF BORNEO WITH GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 8S8 154E0 HAS LOST ORGANIZATION AND IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: KUBAT/HAM/BOYD/FITZPATRICK//

NNNN

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