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Date: 	Sat, 17 Aug 1996 17:35:20 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -171735 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 79006
WTPN21 PGTW 172230
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 172221Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/170549Z AUG 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
170600)//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/172223Z AUG 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22
PGTW 172230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5N1
133.9E6 TO 19.9N9 130.7E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  METSAT IMAGERY
AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 172030Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N8 133.6E3.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD.  CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
DISORGANIZED BUT REMAINS PERSISTENT.  UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALSO REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.  MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1002 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 182230Z6.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT LOCATED NEAR 14.7N2 153.5E4.//

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