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Date:	Tue, 08 Oct 1996 15:26:29 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -081526 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 76258
ABPW10 PGTW 081900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/081900Z /090600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/080551Z OCT 96
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
NEAR 9.3N2 140.3E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 139.0E3 WITH
ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTER POSSIBLE NEAR 12.0N3 138.0E2.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT IS STILL THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD. REFER TO REF A (WTPN21 PGTW) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
(2) AN AREA OF STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS NEAR 5.0N5 171.0E9 AND THIS IS THE
REASON FOR RE-ISSUANCE OF THIS ADVISORY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. 08/12Z
AND 08/18Z SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE 24 HOUR SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 2 TO 3 MB ACROSS ALL OF THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON 08/18Z SYNOPTIC
DATA FROM KWAJALEIN (WMO 91366) AND MAJURO (WMO 91376).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR DUE TO THE
LOW-LATITUDE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
(3) THE AREA CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR
12.0N3 160.0E7 HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SPEED CONVERGENCE BENEATH A
REGION OF FAIR UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
NEAR 5N5 110E2 HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE JUST NORTHWEST OF BORNEO WITH GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
NEAR 8S8 154E0 HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS BASED ON 08/12Z SYNOPTIC DATA. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/DEOCARIZA/UROGI//

NNNN

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