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Date: 	Sun, 03 Nov 1996 12:17:24 -0600
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -031217 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 41849
WTPN21 PGTW 031800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 031753Z NOV 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 9.3N2 152.3E1 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031630Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N2 152.3E1.  THE
SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD AS SHOWN IN WATER VAPOR DERIVED
WINDS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH IN AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 041800Z3.//

NNNN

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