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Date:	Sat, 31 Aug 1996 21:09:03 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -312109 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 46328
WTPN32 PGTW 010300
1. TYPHOON ORSON (19W) WARNING NR 042
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- 30.9N2 143.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 30.9N2 143.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 31.9N3 143.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 33.6N2 143.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 35.8N6 145.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 38.4N5 148.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 42.3N9 156.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION 31.2N6  143.4E2
TYPHOON ORSON (19W) IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS. IT
HAS BEGUN ITS FORECASTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT STILL HAS A VERY LARGE RAGGED
EYE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR SYNOPTIC AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA, AND THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE EYEWALL. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF OUR OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING DYNAMICAL, STATISTICAL, AND CLIMATOLOGICAL
METHODS, ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST
TRACK. TY ORSON IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY
WITHIN TWELVE HOURS AS IT CROSSES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. TY
ORSON IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY OUR
72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 (DTG
010751Z4), 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1), 012100Z4 (DTG
011951Z7) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 28 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (RICK) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31
PGTW 311500) FOR DETAILS ON THE OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE BASIN.//

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