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Date: 	Mon, 12 Aug 1996 16:45:25 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -121645 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 75478
ABPW10 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN/122100Z/130600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/122151Z AUG 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/122153Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 121800Z2 TYPHOON KIRK (13W) WAS LOCATED AT 27.2N1
127.5E5, MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (TYPHOON KIRK (13W) WARNING NR 37 (WTPN31 PGTW 120300))
AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 121800Z2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WAS LOCATED AT
33.2N8 159.4E9, MOVING EASTWARD AT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
SEE REF B (TYPHOON DEPRESSION 15W WARNING NR 2 (WTPN32 PGTW
122100)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10N1 141E6
REMAINS NEAR 10N1 141E6. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS INDICATED
BY
SYNOPTIC DATA. ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 1
0
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. T
HE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEX
T
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 29N1 169E6 I
S
NOW LOCATED NEAR 30N3 170E8. ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THA
T
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  SATELLITE-DERIVED
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED BENEATH AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WHICH FAVORS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 10N1 160E7. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS DISTURBANCE HAS PERSISTED FOR APPROXIMATE
LY
24 HOURS AND IS LOCATED BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFIC
ANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CARLE/HAM/UROGI//

BT
#7950

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