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Date: 	Wed, 07 Aug 1996 21:08:56 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -072108 (AUTOMATIC)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
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ZCZC DD+ 60855
WTPN31 PGTW 080300
1. TROPICAL STORM KIRK (13W) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- 24.7N3 134.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N3 134.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 24.9N5 133.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 25.1N8 133.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 25.8N5 133.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 26.3N1 133.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 26.9N7 130.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION 24.7N3  134.0E8
TROPICAL STORM KIRK (13W) IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN EYE IS
PARTIALLY FORMED IN TS KIRK ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. THIS EYE IS NOT
FULLY WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM DUE PRIMARILY TO THE STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRESENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS WIND SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE, AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON THIS PARTIAL
EYE FORMATION COUPLED WITH OTHER SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSES
INDICATING 55 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T3.5). SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS TS KIRK RESPONDS TO THE
DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON
A COMBINATION OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY (SSM/I) AND
SCATTEROMETRY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1), 081500Z4
(DTG 081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4) AND 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6).
MAXIMUM SEAS AT 080000Z ARE 34 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//

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