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Date:	Sat, 12 Oct 1996 19:17:36 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -121917 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 88659
WTPN21 PGTW 130000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 122351Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/120121Z OCT 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
120130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0N6
138.0E2 TO 17.9N7 131.6E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
122230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4N0 137.2E3.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
12/2230Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKLY
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFOW CONTINUES TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 140000Z5.//

NNNN

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