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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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655
WTPS31 PGTW 252100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- 13.2S6 139.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 139.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 13.4S8 138.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 13.5S9 137.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 13.8S2 137.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 13.9S3 136.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION 13.2S6  138.9E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WE BELIEVE TC 12P WILL NOT INTENSIFY FURTHER DUE
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRESENTLY ON THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 (DTG 260753Z3) AND
262100Z1 (DTG 261953Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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