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Date: 	Sat, 03 Aug 1996 21:58:06 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -032158 (AUTOMATIC)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
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ZCZC DD+ 58591
WTPN31 PGTW 040300
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- 22.2N6 132.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N6 132.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 23.7N2 131.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 24.9N5 131.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 26.1N9 131.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 27.1N0 131.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 28.9N9 132.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION 22.6N0  132.4E0
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
IT APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO THE TAIL END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
IS HELPING TO FORM WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL MONSOON GYRE OVER THE
EAST CHINA SEA AND PHILIPPINE SEA. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING SCENARIOS SUCH AS THIS AND CONFIDENCE IN
NUMERICAL PREDICTIONS AT THIS TIME IS LOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED ON AN ASSUMED PATH AROUND THE FORMING GYRE AND BLENDED TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGY FOR SUCH SYSTEMS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 (DTG
040751Z7), 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4), 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0) AND
050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2). MAXIMUM SEAS AT 040000Z ARE 10 FEET. REFER
TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM JOY (12W) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

BT
#7849

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