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Date:	Sun, 13 Oct 1996 01:19:26 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -130119 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 90676
ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/130600Z /140600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/130151Z OCT 96//
REF/B/RMG/NACPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/122321Z OCT 96//
REF/C/RMG/NACPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/130321Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 130000Z4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W WAS LOCATED
AT 18.8N7 117.8E7, MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W
WARNING NR 09 (WTPN31 PGTW 130300)) AND SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 14N5 141E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16N7 135E9. ANIMATED
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A
WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PRESENT.
CONVECTION IN THIS AREA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD. REFER TO REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
WTPN21 PGTW 130000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 13N4 151E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15N6 150E6. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A CLEARLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 8
HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS PRESENT OVER THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
REFER TO REF C (TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WTPN22
PGTW 130330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) AN BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR
THE PAST 18 HOURS NEAR 8N8 170E8. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: KALAFSKY/NICKLAS/DEOCARIZA/UROGI//

NNNN

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