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Date: 	Tue, 24 Dec 1996 14:30:32 -0600
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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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820
WTPS31 PGTW 242100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- 14.1S6 138.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 138.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 14.4S9 138.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 14.8S3 136.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 15.0S6 135.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 15.1S7 133.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION 14.2S7  138.7E9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(TC 12P) IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF
OF CARPENTARIA. WE EXPECT TC 12P TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
UNTIL MAKING FORECASTED LANDFALL IN 36 HOURS. TC 12P IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND REMAIN ON A WESTWARD
TRACK AND MAY POSSIBLY REINTENSIFY SHOULD IT MAKE IT BACK
OVER WATER IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251953Z5).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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