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Subject:      Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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616
WTPS32 PGTW 270300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- 13.5S9 163.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 163.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 15.6S2 165.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 18.1S0 166.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 20.9S1 168.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 23.8S3 169.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION 14.0S5  164.0E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE EXPECT TC
13P TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AND THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ALONG THE EXISTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG
271355Z3) AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280155Z1). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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