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Date: 	Sat, 26 Oct 1996 02:45:30 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -260245 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 99580
WTPN31 PGTW 260900
1. TROPICAL STORM CARLO (33W) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- 36.6N5 154.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 36.6N5 154.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 39.7N9 158.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 42.3N9 163.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 44.4N2 169.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 46.8N8 175.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 54 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
54 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 48.7N9 178.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION 37.4N4  155.3E4
TROPICAL STORM CARLO (33W) IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS BEST
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. UTILIZING MODIFIED DVORAK ANALYSIS METHODS FOR SUCH
A SYSTEM WE HAVE DETERMINED THAT OUR PREVIOUS WARNING
INTENSITY WAS SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, AND HAVE BROUGHT OUR
INTENSITY BACK UP TO 55 KNOTS. TS CARLO IS ON A
WEAKENING TREND AND THIS INCREASE IN WARNING INTENSITY
DOES NOT REPRESENT A REINTENSIFICATION TREND. THE LATEST
AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETRY FROM A 260025Z5 DESCENDING PASS
OF THE ERS-2 POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE SUPPORT THIS HIGHER
WARNING INTENSITY AS WELL. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA AS WELL. TS CARLO
IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 18 HOURS, WITH TRANSITION COMPLETE BY 270000Z9. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261353Z0), 262100Z1 (DTG
261953Z6), AND 270300Z2 (DTG 270153Z8). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//

NNNN

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