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Subject:      Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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214
WTPS32 PGTW 281500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- 21.2S5 170.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 170.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 23.7S2 171.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 26.4S2 174.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 29.5S6 176.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 32.7S2 178.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION 21.8S1  170.6E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) HAS JUST PASSED TO THE EAST
OF WMO 91568 (ANEITYUM ISLAND). AT 28/0800Z8 WMO 91568
WAS REPORTING EXTREMELY LOW PRESSURES (966 MB) BUT
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (20 KNOTS), INDICATING THAT THEY
WERE IN THE EYE OF TC 13P AT THAT TIME. TC 13P HAS SINCE
MOVED PAST ANEITYUM ISLAND AND IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS IN
PREVIOUS WARNINGS. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 36 HOURS WHILE
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. WARNING AND
FORECASTED WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SHRUNK IN AGREEMENT WITH
A 28/0636Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGERY ANALYSIS PROVIDED BY AIR
FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTRAL AS WELL AS SURROUNDING
SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z3 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG
290157Z4) AND 291500Z7 (DTG 291357Z7).//

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