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Subject:      Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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612
WTPS32 PGTW 241500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- 13.5S9 158.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 158.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 14.2S7 158.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
005 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 14.9S4 158.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 15.8S4 158.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 16.8S5 158.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION 13.7S1  158.8E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
SOLOMON ISLANDS AND TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO GAIN LATITUDE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED
BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 09 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 (DTG 250157Z0) AND 251500Z3
(DTG 251357Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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