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Date:	Mon, 09 Sep 1996 00:51:25 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -090051 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 115818
WTPN22 PGTW 090500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 090451Z SEP 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N3
134.5E3 TO 15.9N5 126.0E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 090300Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N6 133.0E7.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: SYNOPTIC DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH
THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE ABOVE POSITION.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIMITED TO
A BROAD RING APPROXIMATELY 600 NM IN DIAMETER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIMITED TO THE CONVECTIVE REGIONS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. LATEST METSAT IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE
CLOSER TO THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 15.0N6
133.0E7.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 100500Z6.//

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