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Date:	Tue, 01 Oct 1996 05:12:16 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -010512 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 79357
ABPW10 PGTW 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/011000Z /020600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/010751Z OCT 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/010753Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 010600Z7 TYPHOON YATES (28W) WAS LOCATED AT
34.0N7 152.0E8, MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TYPHOON YATES (28W)
WARNING NR 35 (WTPN31 PGTW 010900)) AND SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 010600Z7 TYPHOON ZANE (29W) WAS LOCATED AT
28.8N0 136.2E2, MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TYPHOON ZANE (29W) WARNING
NR 30 (WTPN32 PGTW 010900)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17N8 118E0 HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 01/00Z SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. WATER-VAPOR DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS NEAR 09N9 163E0 AND THIS IS THE
REASON FOR RE-ISSUANCE OF THIS ADVISORY. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHARP, WELL-
DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE. THIS AREA IS LOCATED BENEATH A
REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND A WEAK UPPER
ANTICYCLONE MAY BE FORMING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR DUE TO HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES AND THE LACK OF ANY
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/MEST/HONG//

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