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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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782
WTPS31 PGTW 240900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- 14.4S9 139.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 139.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 15.2S8 139.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 15.9S5 138.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 16.5S2 138.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 17.0S8 138.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION 14.6S1  139.5E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TC 12P) IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH IN THE GULF O
F CARPENTARIA AT 06 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS RELOCATED BASED ON 2405
30Z VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SAME VIS
IBLE SATELLITE DATA. TC 12P HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGT
HENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERAT
E UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST WHICH IS INHIBITING INTENSIFICA
TION. THE FORECAST FOR TC 12P IS CHANGED TO REFLECT STEERING FLOW WITH
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. TC 12P IS EXPE
CTED TO GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD NORTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECA
ST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 09 FEET. REFE
R TO TROPICAL CYCLONE

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