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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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873
WTPS32 PGTW 261500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- 12.2S5 161.5E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 161.5E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 13.7S1 162.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 15.6S2 163.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 17.4S2 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 19.1S1 165.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION 12.6S9  161.6E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE CORAL SEA. TC 13P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 36-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. FERGUS WILL BEGIN WEAKENING BEYOND THE
36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS IT BEGINS TRANSITIONING INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2
(DTG 270157Z2) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271357Z5). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL)(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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