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Date:	Sat, 12 Oct 1996 23:30:07 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -122330 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 85516
WTPN22 PGTW 130330
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 130321Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/122351Z OCT 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
130000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N2
151.5E2 TO 16.4N1 144.4E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
130230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N0 150.1E7.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CLEARLY
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST
8 HOURS. THE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND THE
SYSTEM=S LOCATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH FAVOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 140330Z1.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT LOCATED NEAR 15.4N0 137.2E3.//

NNNN

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