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Date: 	Tue, 13 Aug 1996 00:35:33 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -130035 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 77940
ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN/130600Z/140600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/130151Z AUG 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/122153Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 130000Z2 TYPHOON KIRK (13W) WAS LOCATED AT
27.8N7 127.8E8, MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TYPHOON KIRK (13W) WARNING
NR 38 (WTPN31 PGTW 130300)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 121800Z2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WAS LOCATED
AT 33.2N8 159.4E9, MOVING EASTWARD AT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TYPHOON DEPRESSION 15W WARNING NR 2
(WTPN32 PGTW122100)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 10N1 141E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14N5 138E2. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY SYNOPTIC DATA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 30N3 170E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28N0 176E4. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALL EDDIES ALONG THE
ROUGH AXIS IN WHICH THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED.
SCATTEROMETRY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 10N1 160E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10N1 157E3. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS DISTURBANCE HAS PERSISTED FOR
OVER 24 HOURS AND IS LOCATED BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER-
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 20N2
107E8 IN THE GULF OF TONKIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK CIRCULATION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS
OVERLAND. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
CIRCULATION FEATURE IS NOT MOVING TOWARD THE WATER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 05 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(5) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 33N6
138E2, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON WIND FLOW FEEDING TYPHOON
KIRK (13W). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(6) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: KUBAT/DUARTE/MILLER/HAM/UROGI/HONG//

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