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Subject:      Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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336
WTPS32 PGTW 291500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- 27.5S4 175.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S4 175.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 31.6S0 177.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 36.8S7 177.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 43.0S7 179.4W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION 28.5S5  175.7E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) HAS PICKED UP SPEED AND IS
CURRENTLY MOVING AT 21 KNOTS NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND. WE
EXPECT TC 13P TO WEAKEN AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z6 (DTG 300157Z6) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301357Z9).//

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