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Date: 	Sat, 17 Aug 1996 17:44:22 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -171744 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 56817
WTPN22 PGTW 172230
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 172223Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/172221Z AUG 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
172230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N3
154.7E7 TO 15.1N7 148.6E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
172130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N2 153.5E4.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED EAST OF THE MARIANAS HAS
IMPROVED ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE INDICATED BY WATER
VAPOR WINDS COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN IS
LOCATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MINIMUM
SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 182230Z6.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT LOCATED NEAR 16.1N8 133.6E3.//

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