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Date:	Tue, 10 Sep 1996 16:08:30 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -101608 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 69839
WTPN21 PGTW 102030
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 102021Z SEP 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N7
154.3E3 TO 14.9N4 147.8E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 101930Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N4 153.1E0.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT LOW-
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST
48 HOURS.  THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED BELOW DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
ALOFT INDICATED BY WATER-VAPOR DERIVED WINDS COURTESY OF
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS ALSO LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A TROPICAL UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WHICH IS ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW.  MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.//
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 112030Z7.//

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