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Date:	Fri, 11 Oct 1996 07:32:30 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -110732 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 74291
WTPN21 PGTW 111200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 111151Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/110651Z OCT 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
110700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N9
149.5E9 TO 16.4N1 140.4E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY,
SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 111130Z INDICATE THAT A
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N0 146.0E1.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF GUAM AND THE SOUTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS HAS REFORMED FARTHER TO THE EAST BASED ON
11/0600Z SYNOPTIC DATA, AND 11/1130Z DOPPLER RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA. TWO CIRCULATIONS WERE EVIDENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY NEAR 12.5N 145.7E AND 14.2N 146.3E. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL AT THIS TIME WHICH CIRCULATION WILL BECOME
THE DOMINANT ONE, BUT A MERGER OF THE TWO CIRCULATIONS
EAST OF GUAM, ROTA, OR SAIPAN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 06
TO 24 HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR IS INDICATING EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM 500 TO 7,000 FT
AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO MORE THAN 35 KNOTS
FROM 8,000 TO 30,000 FT WHICH FURTHER INDICATES THAT THE
MAIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED EAST OF THESOUTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS. AS A RESULT, THE PREVIOUS TCFA AREA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED FARTHER EAST AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR RE-
ISSUANCE OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS, BUT SLIGHTLY
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 121200Z6.//

NNNN

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