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Date: 	Fri, 16 Aug 1996 15:55:53 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -161555 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 38281
ABPW10 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/162100Z/170600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/160751Z AUG 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/160753Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 160600Z3 TROPICAL STORM KIRK (13W) WAS
LOCATED AT 44.9N7 153.6E5 MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 29
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL STORM KIRK
(13W) WARNING NR 51 (WTPN31 PGTW 160900)) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE FINAL WARNING.
(2) AT 160600Z3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WAS LOCATED
AT 34.3N0 167.5E9, MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TROPICAL DEPRESSION
15W WARNING NR 9 (WTPN32 PGTW 160900)) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE FINAL WARNING.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11N2 139E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11N2 137E1. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. GRADIENT LEVEL WINDS (3000 FEET) FROM YAP (WMO
ID 91413) INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED TO THEIR WEST AND FURTHER SOUTH OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR-DERIVED UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OF THE DISTURBANCE,
WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15N6 164E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15N6 161E8. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SUBSTATIONALLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. WATER
VAPOR-DERIVED UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AT
APPROXIMATELY 16/1200Z INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CARLE/WOFFORD/BOYD//

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