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Date: 	Sat, 19 Oct 1996 23:23:25 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -192323 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 40581
WTPN21 PGTW 200230
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 200229Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8N4
154.2E2 TO 17.5N3 147.3E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
200130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 16.0N7 153.8E7.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED 500 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE MARINA ISLANDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL, AND IS BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT SIX TO 12 HOURS, THEN
INCREASE DURING THE CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAX. LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW INTO THE SYSTEM IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 210230Z8.//

NNNN

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