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Date: 	Tue, 13 Aug 1996 04:16:10 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -130416 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 72657
WTPN31 PGTW 130900
1. TYPHOON KIRK (13W) WARNING NR 039
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- 28.5N5 128.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N5 128.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 30.4N7 128.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 33.0N6 130.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 36.0N9 132.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 38.8N9 136.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 42.0N6 145.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION 29.0N1  128.2E3
TYPHOON KIRK (13W) IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 7
KNOTS. IT HAS A VERY WELL DEVELOPED INDUCED ANTICYCLONE
TO ITS SOUTHEAST WHICH IS EVIDENT FROM THE SURFACE ALL
THE WAY TO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE. THIS INDUCED
ANTICYCLONE IS MOVING NORTH WITH TY KIRK AND SHOULD
INHIBIT A SHARP RECURVATURE FROM OCCURING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL ON KYUSHU. TY KIRK HAS NOT YET REINTENSIFIED
AFTER MOVING OFF OF OKINAWA, BUT IT IS LIKELY TO RESUME A
SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION TREND DUE TO BEING OVER OPEN,
UNOBSTRUCTED WARM WATER, AND HAVING VERY GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12 AND
24 HOURS FROM NOW, AND MAY STILL EXCEED 100 KNOTS. ALL
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0
(DTG 131351Z4), 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0), 140300Z8 (DTG
140151Z2) AND 140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 28 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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