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Date: 	Sun, 24 Nov 1996 13:59:21 -0600
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Subject:      Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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659
WTPS31 PGTW 242100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- 18.2S1 164.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 164.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 19.0S0 166.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 20.4S6 168.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 21.7S0 171.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 23.1S6 175.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION 18.4S3  164.6E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD NORTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. TC 06P IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION AND THEN TO WEAKEN AS IT
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6
(DTG 250751Z0) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 24/1800Z5 IS 14 FEET.//

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