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Date: 	Sun, 18 Aug 1996 04:39:28 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -180439 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 33175
ABPW10 PGTW 180830 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/180830Z/190600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/180153Z AUG 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/172223Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W HAS FORMED IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. AT 180600Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WAS
LOCATED AT 18.0N9 129.4E6, MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A ((WTPN31 PGTW
180900) TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WARNING NR 02) AND
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14N5 135E9 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING. REFER TO PARA 1.A.(1) ABOVE FOR FURTHER DETAILS
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15N6 157E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15N6 150E6. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DECREASED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS; HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE CLEARLY DEFINED.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. SEE REF B (TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WTPN22 PGTW 172230) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
26N8 179E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28N0 174E2. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK, LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8N8 112E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8N8 114E6. THE AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, LOW-
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC DATA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(5) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 31N 139E.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE
OF A TIGHTLY WRAPPED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS
HINDERING THE SYSTEM=S DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(6) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: KALAFSKY/MCELROY/DEOCARIZA/BOYD//

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