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Date:	Mon, 07 Oct 1996 01:46:43 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -070146 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 58804
ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/070600Z /080600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/070551Z OCT 96
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
NEAR 9N9 147.5E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8N8 145.5E5 OR
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF GUAM AND JUST EAST OF
WOLEAI ATOLL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS UNDER A SERIES OF
WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS. CURRENTLY, CONVECTION
IS NOT CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH, FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW PRESENT OVER THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
(2) A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 17N8
167E4. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A
SMALL SURFACE CIRCULATION EXISTS WITHIN A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE REGION. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL, LOCATED
JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1012 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/MCELROY/PUGH/MEST//

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