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Date: 	Sun, 20 Oct 1996 01:14:14 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -200114 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 87744
ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/200600Z/210600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/200155Z OCT 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/200229Z OCT 96
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 200000Z2 TROPICAL STORM BETH (32W) WAS
LOCATED AT 17.4N2 115.0E7, MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL STORM BETH
(32W) WARNING NR 27 (WTPN33 PGTW 200300)) AND SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15N6 157E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N2 152.1E8 AND IS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B
(TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION  ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 200230))
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5N5 141E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7N7 137E1. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT CELL LOCATED
TO ITS NORTHWEST. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE IS MINIMAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 6N6
144E9. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES
CONVERGING CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW INTO THE TROUGH. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED BENEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW WHICH IS
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WHILE THE AREAL EXTENT OF
THE CONVECTION IS LARGE, CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY
DISORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CARLE/EBARLE/HONG//

NNNN

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