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Date: 	Sat, 03 Aug 1996 01:09:47 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -030109 (AUTOMATIC)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
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Status: OR

ZCZC DD+ 81018
ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN/030600Z/040600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/030153Z AUG 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/030021Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 030000Z3 TYPHOON JOY (12W) WAS LOCATED AT 32.1N6
154.2E2, MOVING EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (TYPHOON JOY (12W) WARNING NR 20 (WTPN32 PGTW 030300))
AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2)  NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N7
139.3E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N7 136.14E1, AND IS THE SUBJECT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B (TROPICAL
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 030021Z)) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR  SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
(2)  AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 08N8 119E1.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A BAND OF DEEP
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION LYING OVER THE PHILIPPINES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON DEPRESSION TO THE EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES (SEE PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) IMMEDIATELY ABOVE). OUR
SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS OF THE REGION INDICATES THIS
CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY CONVERGENCE INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONSOON DEPRESSION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
SECONDARY CIRCULATION MAY FORM IN THIS REGION OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: KUBAT/HAM/UROGI//

BT
#7839

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