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Date:	Sun, 13 Oct 1996 19:15:09 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -131915 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 34391
WTPN32 PGTW 132100 AMD
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WARNING NR 003A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- 15.2N8 148.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N8 148.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 15.4N0 146.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 15.6N2 144.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 16.1N8 143.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 16.9N6 141.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 18.8N7 138.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION 15.2N8  147.8E0
JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDED AND RELOCATED WARNING: 13/2130Z
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED, LOW-
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
BY MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS UPPER-
LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE IMMEDIATE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. A ZONE OF CONVECTION STRETCHES
IN A LINE APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. A
POSSIBLE SECONDARY CIRCULATION MAY BE LOCATED NORTH OF
THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TD 31W IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL MARIANAS AND TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE
SYSTEM. BEYOND THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION, TD 31W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4), 140900Z4 (DTG
140755Z2), 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7) AND 142100Z8 (DTG
141953Z3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS
10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFWFOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM ABEL (30W) (WTPN31
PGTW) AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

ON THE NEXT WARNING. THERE
IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT TD 30W WILL REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ASYMMETRIES IN THE WIND
RADII ARE DUE TO THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
EXPECTED TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE
OWING TO INTERACTION WITH THE COLD SURFACE HIGH FORECAST
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. IMPORTANT NOTE... IF OUR INTENSITIES
ARE LOW, THEN OUR WIND RADII WILL ALSO BE TOO SMALL.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/WOFFORD/HONG//
TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

NNNN

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