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Date:	Thu, 10 Oct 1996 02:15:34 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -100215 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 78202
ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/100600Z /110600Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 11N2 135E9 HAS SPLIT INTO TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS; THE
FURTHEST WEST SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR 13N4 127E0. THE
EASTERN SYSTEM WILL BE DISCUSSED IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(2).
ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A NEWLY FORMED
CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS BAND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR ONLY
18 HOURS BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS PRESENT HALF WAY BETWEEN
THIS SYSTEM AND THE ONE TO THE EAST AND IS ENHANCING
OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED 140NM
SOUTHWEST OF CATADUANES ISLAND IN THE PHILIPPINES AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS DEPENDENT UPON ANY INTERACTION OF
THE CIRCULATION WITH THE ISLANDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR, BUT MAY IMPROVE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
(2)  THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11N2 135E9 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 14N5 132E6. CONVECTION REMAINS WEAKLY
ORGANIZED AND NORTH AND EAST OF A BROAD MONSOONAL
CIRCULATION CENTER. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TOWARDS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXISTS HALF WAY
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST, HOWEVER
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN THE ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TOWARD THE WEST IS
BEGINNING TO DOMINATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
FAIR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 14N5 156E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12N3 150E. ANIMATED
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PRESENT,
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE AREA IS PART OF AN EXTENDED TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS FAR AS 8N8
165E2. CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE AREA ARE PRIMARILY NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE
POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE IS FAIR TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 6N6 165E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N9 159E5. ANIMATED
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS PRESENT, HOWEVER, SCATTEROMETER DATA
FROM 09/1207Z INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD IS REPRESENTED
BY AN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD TOWARD
THE SYSTEM DISCUSSED ABOVE IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(3).
CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED IN THIS AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(5) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 6N6 108E9 HAS WEAKENED. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATE A WEAK 1009M SURFACE CIRCULATION IS STILL
PRESENT, THERE IS NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.
THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT.
(6) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/MCELROY/MEST/PUGH//

NNNN

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