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Date: 	Sat, 19 Oct 1996 01:12:28 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -190112 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 91750
ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/190600Z/200600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/190155Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 190000Z0 TYPHOON BETH (32W) WAS LOCATED AT
18.9N8 118.3E3, MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TYPHOON BETH (32W) WARNING
NR 23 (WTPN33 PGTW 190300)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15N6 162E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15E6 157E3. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL.  THIS
TUTT CELL, LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION, IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT, BUT OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
REMAINS POOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 5N5 141E6.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE-DERIVED LOW-LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT CELL LOCATED
TO ITS NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CARLE/EBARLE/HONG//

NNNN

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