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Date: 	Wed, 25 Dec 1996 19:13:08 -0600
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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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470
WTPS32 PGTW 260300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- 10.6S7 160.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 080 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S7 160.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 11.3S5 162.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 12.3S6 163.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 13.6S0 164.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.1S7 165.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION 10.8S9  161.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TC 13P HAS INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS AND METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM THE
REGION HAVE HAD SEA LEVEL PRESSURE REPORTS AS LOW AS 995
MB. SHIP REPORTS FROM VESSEL 3FRR5 HAVE BEEN USEFUL IN
ESTABLISHING THE GALE WIND RADII. TC 13P HAS COMPLETED
THE LOOP IN ITS TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY
ACCELERATING DOWN THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261357Z4) AND
270300Z2 (DTG 270157Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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