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Date:	Sun, 13 Oct 1996 09:19:55 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -130919 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 80331
WTPN31 PGTW 131500
1. TROPICAL STORM ABEL (30W) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- 19.9N9 116.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N9 116.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 20.9N1 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 21.9N2 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 23.5N0 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 24.4N0 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION 20.2N4  115.7E4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE PAST 06 HOURS AND INTENSIFIED INTO TROPICAL STORM
ABEL (30W). THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS TUCKED IN UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION AND  NUMEROUS
COLD, OVERSHOOTING TOPS OF -86 TO -88C WERE NOTED
WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. OUR CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 13/1130Z DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY
A 13/06Z SHIP REPORT OF 32 KNOTS 70 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. ABEL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD
A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER HONG KONG AND
THEN SHEAR APART AFTER MOVING INLAND. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 13/00Z NOGPAS MODEL RUN AND OUR 13/12Z
FORECAST AIDS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
997 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2), 40300Z8
(DTG 140153Z4), 140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0) AND 141500Z1 (DTG
141353Z7). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS
13 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 32W WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

NNNN

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