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Date: 	Tue, 20 Aug 1996 01:31:15 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -200131 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 77166
ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/200600Z/210600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/200153Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 200000Z2 TROPICAL STORM NIKI (18W) WAS
LOCATED AT 17.9N7 120.2E5, MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A ((WTPN31 PGTW 200300) TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING NR 09) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16N6 145E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18N9 143E8. THE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLEARLY DEFINED AND
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
28N0 168E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26N8 164E1. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006 MB. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THIS
AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 29N1 139E3 REMAINS NEAR THAT LOCATION.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND IS MERGING WITH A
MIDLATITUDE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 7N7 139E3 IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT.
(5) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20N2 170E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22N4 171E9. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A
PARTIALLY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(6) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: TREHUBENKO/MCELROY/MEST/HONG/BOGLE//

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