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Date: 	Thu, 17 Oct 1996 14:36:11 -0500
From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -171436 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 42290
WTPN33 PGTW 172100
1. TYPHOON BETH (32W) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- 17.6N4 122.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N4 122.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 17.5N3 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 17.2N0 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 17.0N8 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 16.9N6 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 17.0N8 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION 17.6N4  121.8E2
TYPHOON BETH (32W) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 07
KNOTS AND IS MAKING LANDFALL ON LUZON. IT IS EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS WHILE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN END OF LUZON. TY BETH IS FORECAST
TO REORGANIZE AND REINTENSIFY AFTER REACHING THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. STEERING FLOW AT THAT TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK. A FAIRLY STRONG EARLY SEASON NORTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL MONSOON FLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK FLOW AROUND THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW TY BETH TO LOSE
LATITUDE AT FIRST IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, BUT BEGIN TO
GAIN LATITUDE AS IT INTENSIFIES. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0), 180900Z8 (DTG 180755Z6),
181500Z5 (DTG 181355Z3) AND 182100Z2 (DTG 181955Z9).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 23 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.//

NNNN

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