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Date:	Fri, 11 Oct 1996 02:46:28 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -110246 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 44948
WTPN21 PGTW 110730
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 110651Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7N3
144.6E5 TO 19.8N8 138.1E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
110330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N9 144.1E0.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:  LATEST VISIBLE METSAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC
DATA, AND DOPPLER RADAR PRODUCTS (NEXRAD TIME LAPSE)
INDICATE A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AREA. VISIBLE METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND TO
THE EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
FAVORS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
CONSIDERED GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 120730Z0.//

NNNN

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