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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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913
WTPS31 PGTW 262100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- 13.6S0 133.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 133.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 13.7S1 131.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 13.9S3 129.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 14.2S7 127.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 14.9S4 124.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION 13.6S0  132.8E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (PHIL) IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS. PHIL IS WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES LAND. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER THE TIMOR SEA. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (DTG
270753Z4) AND 272100Z2 (DTG 271953Z7). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 14 FEET IN THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA. FUTURE BULLETINS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE REFERRED TO AS WTXS31 PGTW AS THE SYSTEM PASSES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
BASIN. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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