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Date:	Tue, 08 Oct 1996 03:56:49 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -080356 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 28713
ABPW10 PGTW 080600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/080600Z /090600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/080551Z OCT 96
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
NEAR 9.9N8 141.9E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N2 140.3E8 AND
IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. REFER TO
REF A (WTPN21 PGTW), THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT, FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR
12.0N3 161.5E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12N3 160E7. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXISTS BENEATH A REGION OF FAIR UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SYNOPTIC DATA DO NOT
CLEARLY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER, BUT
DO SUPPORT THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 5N5
110E2. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE AN
AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE JUST NORTHWEST OF BORNEO WITH
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 8S8
154E0. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW. OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS POOR AT THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: KUBAT/HAM/BOYD/FITZPATRICK//

NNNN

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