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Date:	Fri, 11 Oct 1996 20:25:25 -0500
From:	Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -112025 (AUTOMATIC)
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ZCZC DD+ 36547
WTPN21 PGTW 120130
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 120121Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/111151Z OCT 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
111200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N1
142.2E9 TO 14.9N4 136.2E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
112330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9N3 141.4E0.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 11/2330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
SUPPORTED BY WATER-VAPOR WINDS CONTINUES TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 130130Z8.//

NNNN

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