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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 029a Corrected
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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811
WTPN31 PGTW 032100 COR
1. SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 029A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- 16.1N8 138.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N8 138.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 16.4N1 135.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.6N4 134.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 19.2N2 135.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.9N1 135.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 25.5N2 137.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION 16.2N9  137.5E6
SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY IN INTENSITY.
KEITH=S EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLOUD COVERED AND MORE
DISTINCT DURING THE PAST 02 HOURS.  THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
PATTERN AND OUTFLOW CIRRUS SHIELD HAVE BECOME ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THIS OFTENTIMES INDICATES
FUTURE MOTION BY ABOUT 24 HOURS.  AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
HAVE SHARPENED OUR TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS INDICATING
RECURVATURE A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BUT
WE HAVE THE FORWARD SPEEDS SLOWER THAN OUR DYNAMIC
FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING.  WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AVERAGE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF CI7.0
(140 KNOTS) AND A BETTER DEFINED EYE.  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 35 FEET.  REFER
TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040153Z3), 040900Z3 (DTG
040753Z9), 041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6) AND 042100Z7 (DTG
041953Z2).  REFER TO TROPICAL STORM LINDA (30W) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR
CORRECTION: CORRECTED THE MESSAGE TO READ SUPER TYPHOON
KEITH.//

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