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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  22 [192030]
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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216
WTPZ43 KNHC 192030
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 1997

THE EYE IS STILL FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES.
LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED JUST SLIGHTLY BUT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBER IS MAINTAINED AT 6.0...115 KNOTS...AS PER THE RULES
OF THE TECHNIQUE.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST DUE TO LOWER SSTS ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.  LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAKENING COULD BE MORE RAPID DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.

NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  A DEEP-
LAYER MEAN RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE FELICIA ON A COURSE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  IF
THIS FORECAST VERIFIES...FELICIA WILL ENTER ENTER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN 48 HOURS.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     19/2100Z 15.9N 130.2W   115 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.1N 132.2W   105 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 134.8W    90 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N 137.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 17.8N 140.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N 144.0W    45 KTS

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