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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number  14 [030306]
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717
WTPZ44 KNHC 030306
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 1997

A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT IN THE HURRICANE FIXED THE CENTER AT 2332Z
WITH A 25 NMI EYE RADIUS AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 947 MB.  THE
MAXIMUM WIND REPORTED AT 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WAS 125 KNOTS.  THE
SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON THE ABOVE
DATA.  THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON TO LIMIT THE STRENGTHENING
PROCESS AND THE FORECAST IS TO 110 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS.  THE FEW
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS AVAILABLE SUGGEST A LEVELING OFF AFTER 12
HOURS AND SOME WEAKENING AFTER 36 HOURS.

THE MTION CONTINES TO BE 275/10 AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING FOR 72 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED
IN DEEP EASTERLIES.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     03/0300Z 13.5N 108.5W   105 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 13.6N 110.0W   110 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 13.8N 112.0W   110 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z 14.0N 114.1W   110 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W   100 KTS
72HR VT     06/0000Z 15.3N 120.3W    90 KTS

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