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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 260453z Oct 97//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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086
WTPN21 PGTW 260500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 260453Z OCT 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.8N4
170.1E9 TO 8.6N4 165.1E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N2 169.0E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE CIRCULATION AND AREA OF CONVECTION
LOCATED NEAR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW AS INDICATED BY THE WATER VAPOR-DERIVED
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE AREA NOW SHOWS WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
BECOME MORE CENTRALLY LOCATED. SYNOPTIC DATA FROM
KWAJALEIN (WMO 91366) AND MAJURO (WMO 91376) SHOW A
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE
FALLS. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS GOOD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 270500Z4.//

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