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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number   2 [122021]
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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312
WTPZ42 KNHC 122021
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 1997

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AND T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 3.0 AND 2.5. WE ARE UPGRADING THE
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE AT THIS TIME. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
BE EXCELLENT AND THERE IS A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND
THE STORM. ENRIQUE IS LOCATED OVER A WARM OCEAN AND UNDER A LIGHT
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...ENRIQUE SHOULD BE A HURRICANE IN A
DAY OR SO.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. MODELS SUGGEST A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS MAINLY BECAUSE THERE IS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH MODELS BUT IS SOMEWHAT
TO THE LEFT OF THE ENSEMBLE TO FOLLOW CLIMATOLOGY.

ONCE AGAIN...AVN AND UK MODELS INITIALIZE AND DEVELOP A STORM IN THE
WRONG PLACE...NEAR 7N AND 100W.  THERE IS ONLY JUST A HINT OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH WHERE ENRIQUE IS LOCATED.  NOGAPS SEEMS TO BE DOING
VERY GOOD.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     12/2100Z  9.6N 114.9W    40 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 10.3N 116.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 11.0N 118.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 12.0N 121.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 13.0N 124.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 15.0N 130.0W    85 KTS

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