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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NC: Tropical Depression Four-c Discussion Number 3
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669
WTPA44 PHNL 312100
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST FRI OCT 31 1997

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C APPEARS TO BE SHEARING AND
WEAKENING...

LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C HAS ACTUALLY
MOVED OUT FROM BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CIRRUS SHIELD THIS MORNING AND
THE CENTER HAS THUS BEEN RELOCATED FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NO LONGER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGHER LEVEL OUTFLOW SHIELD...THE SYSTEM IS APPARANTLY WEAKER
THAN SIX HOURS AGO...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT AND GUSTS
TO 30 KT AT PRESENT. THE PROGNOSIS IS FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-
C TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTERLY DIRECTION AND
DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW
AND MEDIUM MODELS. THE AVIATION MODEL TRACKS THE SYSTEM ON A CURVING
NORTHWARD TRACK...BUT WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW OFF-CENTERED FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...THIS APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     31/2100Z 11.4N 171.5W    25 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 11.8N 174.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     01/1800Z 12.1N 177.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED

NNNN

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