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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number  16
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686
WTPZ45 KNHC 132045
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 13 1997

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SURPRISED US WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
CENTER OF HILDA. THE CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER-LOW IS WINING THE BATTLE...CREATING A
SHEARING ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE FOR HILDA TO INTENSIFY. NO
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED THROUGH 72 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY
SHIFOR AT THIS TIME BUT WEAKENING IS A POSIBILTY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/07.  SINCE THE CENTER IS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY MAINTAINING
A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST THE TRACK MODELS.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     13/2100Z 14.5N 124.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.7N 125.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 130.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N 134.0W    40 KTS

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