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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number  31
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159
WTPZ44 KNHC 070839
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 07 1997

GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...HOWEVER IT IS STILL A VERY
LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER USING
THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE CORRESPONDS TO 90 KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND THE AVN MODEL OUTPUT DO NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE NEAR FUTURE...SO FOR NOW THE WEAKENING SHOULD
MAINLY BE PRODUCED BY COOLER WATERS.  GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SEA TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW 25
DEG C SO THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE STORM/DEPRESSION
THRESHOLD.

CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...285/13.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT.  THE
LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST AT 500 MB SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR 140W/145W IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IF GUILLERMO REMAINS MORE
INTENSE THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  I AM ASSUMING A WEAKER
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE STEERED MORE BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOWS NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
MEDIUM BAM TRACK.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     07/0900Z 16.7N 131.4W    90 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 17.2N 133.4W    80 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N 136.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 138.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 141.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N 146.0W    35 KTS

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