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Date:	Wed, 29 Jan 1997 13:27:16 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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Status: OR

987
WTXS31 PGTW 292100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 021
RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- 12.5S8 93.3E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 93.3E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 14.0S5 92.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 15.2S8 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 16.1S8 91.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.0S8 90.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION 12.9S2   93.2E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
ANALYSIS AT 29/1730Z (DVORAK T3.0). TC 19S IS NOW
MOVING IN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL DIRECTION, AND WE
EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE DOING SO THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING
AGAIN NEAR THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8) AND 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z0 IS 16 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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