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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Jimena Discussion Number   8
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419
WTPZ42 KNHC 270832
TCDEP2
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 27 1997

LAST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER FROM 06Z PICTURE WAS 6.5 WHILE SUBJECTIVE
NUMBERS WERE 5.0 AND 5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 110 KNOTS WHICH IN THE RANGE OF THE ESTIMATES. JIMENA IS A SMALL
SYSTEM BUT IT HAS A WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY
DEEP CONVECTION.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/05.  JIMENA IS LOCATED
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE RIGHT AND A WEAKNESS
TO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL SHOWING A
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK AND BOTH AVN AND NGAPS MOVING JIMENA
WESTWARD.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TURNING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE
NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THIS IS BASED ON GLOBAL MODELS
WHICH GRADUALLY BUILD THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
JIMENA.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     27/0900Z 12.8N 135.8W   110 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W   115 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W   115 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 15.5N 137.5W   110 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 16.5N 138.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N 142.5W    85 KTS

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