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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number   7 [160223]
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642
WTPZ43 KNHC 160223
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 1997

ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED IN THE VERTICAL FROM THE
NORTHEAST...THIS SHEARING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.  DEEP
CONVECTION IS BECOMING STRONGER NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
THE 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY T NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE CLASSIFICATION
SITES REMAIN AT 2.5...THUS TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WINDS REMAIN 35
KT.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN
ANTICIPATION OF WEAKEN VERTICAL SHEAR.

THE INITIAL HEADING IS 295/09...SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD THAN
PREVIOUSLY.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS INITIALLY HEAD TOWARD THE
WNW BEFORE DIVERGING AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
MAINTAINS THIS TENDENCY THROUGH 36 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY.  THIS IS ANTICIPATION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDING
BACK IN AFTER THE EXIT OF ENRIQUE.

GROSS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     16/0300Z 13.0N 114.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.6N 115.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.3N 117.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N 119.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 15.7N 121.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     19/0000Z 16.7N 124.9W    60 KTS

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