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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number   8 [160840]
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894
WTPZ43 KNHC 160840
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 16 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND THE AFGWC.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FELICIA.
OUR INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING AT LEAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM BUT DEVELOPMENT MAY BE INHIBITED LATER IN THE PERIOD IF FELICIA
ENCOUNTERS EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE.

THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT IN A BURSTING
TYPE PASTERN WITH ONLY INFRARED IMAGERY.  BEST GUESS AT INITIAL
MOTION IS 295/08.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A LOW TO MID LAYER RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF FELICIA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST NORTHWEST TO CONTINUE.  CURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
MID LAYER BAM.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     16/0900Z 13.2N 114.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 13.7N 116.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.3N 117.7W    55 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 14.9N 119.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 15.4N 121.3W    60 KTS
72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N 125.0W    60 KTS

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