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PAGE 02 RUHGSGG1510 UNCLAS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z5 --- 6.2S8 76.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S8 76.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 6.8S4 76.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS

PAGE 03 RUHGSGG1510 UNCLAS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 7.6S3 75.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 8.2S0 75.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 9.0S9 74.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS

PAGE 04 RUHGSGG1510 UNCLAS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 10.7S8 73.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION  6.4S0   76.7E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS
IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 201240Z9 SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING A CLEARLY
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 01S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO WEAKEN BEYOND
THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0), 210300Z6 (DTG
210153Z2), 210900Z2 (DTG 210753Z8) AND 211500Z9 (DTG
211353Z5).//

PAGE 05 RUHGSGG1510 UNCLAS
BT
#1510

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