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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NC: Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 30 [212100]
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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924
WTPA43 PHNL 212100
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST MON JUL 21 1997

FELICIA CONTINUES TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST AT 21 MPH.
SINCE FELICIA HAS BEEN SHEARED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND HAS
LOST ITS DEEP CONVECTION IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD WITH THE LOWER LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK
CLOSELY FOLLOWS CLIMATOLOGY AND THE CLIPPER MODEL AND IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL. FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SCENARIO WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE OF
NORTHEAST TRADES OVER THE ISLANDS AS IT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

LARSON

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     21/2100Z 17.6N 143.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 17.8N 146.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 18.1N 150.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 18.4N 154.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.7N 157.6W    25 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.4N 164.7W    25 KTS

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