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Date:	Thu, 30 Jan 1997 20:38:45 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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Status: OR

670
WTXS32 PGTW 310300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- 29.5S6 39.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S6 39.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 30.7S0 40.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 34.2S9 42.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION 29.8S9   39.5E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE WARNING INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 300709Z SCATTEROMETER
PASS, WHICH INDICATED 40 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER, AND
A WEAKENING TREND BASED ON METEOSAT IMAGERY. BASED ON THE
SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS, GALE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 180 NM ELSEWHERE. THE WARNING POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 301833Z KGWC SATELLITE ANALYSIS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 (DTG 311355Z8). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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