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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NC: Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number  45
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561
WTPA44 PHNL 102100
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST SUN AUG 10 1997

GUILLERMO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DROPPED TO 30 KT...OR BELOW THE 34
KT THRESHOLD. OUR TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL TRACK WHICH IS
THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THE BOUQUET OF TRACK CHOICES. THIS AGREES WELL
WITH OUR THINKING OF WHAT A SHEARED SHALLOW SYSTEM SHOULD DO. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH FOR A FEW DAYS FAR TO THE
NORTH NEAR 45N 150W COULD INDUCE A WEAKNESS OR CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF
THIS HIGH NEAR 30N. THIS WOULD BASICALLY BE A COLD CORE SYSTEM
THAT INTERACT OR MERGE WITH GUILLERMO BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD NOT
AFFECT IT IN A MAJOR WAY. WINDS ON GUILLERMOS NORTH SIDE MAY
HOWEVER BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN HERE INDICATED WHILE WINDS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE NEAR THE ISLANDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OR VERY WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLIES WITH WARM AND HUMID WEATHER ENSUING. ROSENDAL

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     10/2100Z 25.3N 142.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N 143.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 26.5N 145.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 26.7N 147.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     12/1800Z 26.9N 150.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED
72HR VT     13/1800Z 26.9N 154.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED

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