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Date:	Wed, 29 Jan 1997 03:25:05 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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Status: OR

104
WTXS31 PGTW 290900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- 10.7S8 93.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 93.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 11.5S7 92.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 12.4S7 91.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 13.2S6 90.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 13.9S3 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION 10.9S0   92.8E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD BEYOND THE
24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
AND TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9) AND 300900Z2 (DTG
300753Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 29/0600Z7
IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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