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Subject:      Indian-N: Dhaka
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944
WTIO32 PGTW 061500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY
DHAKA
1. TYPHOON LINDA (30W) WARNING NR 024 RELOCATED
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 30W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- 15.0N6 92.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N6 92.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.6N2 91.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.9N6 91.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.7N6 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.3N5 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION 15.2N8   92.0E1
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, TYPHOON LINDA (30W
0 HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTED SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD, AND HAS RAPIDLY RE-INTENSIFIED INTO
TYPHOON LINDA (30W). THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS RE-
DEVELOPED FARTHER EAST UNDER THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD
MASS AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR RELOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -83C TO -86C HAVE ENCIRCLED
THE SYSTEM CENTER AND AN EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO APPEAR IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
061130Z1 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0
(65 TO 70 KNOTS) FROM BOTH JTWC AND KGWC SATELLITE
ANALYSTS. AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT INTENSITY INCREASE
AND THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION, WE FEEL THAT
LINDA WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN OUR COMPUTER MODELS
ARE INDICATING. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL INDIA IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY PICK UP AND
RECURVE TYPHOON LINDA (30W) TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST MYANMAR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH  LINDA HAS
INTENSIFIED AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES LAND AFTER
36 HOURS. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM OUR PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, BUT THERE REMAINS A MODERATE PROBABILITY
ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT LINDA MAY WEAKEN AND SHEAR APART
BEFORE REACHING LAND. THE RESULT WOULD BE A VERY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION  DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH NO
CONVECTION.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS
21 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2),
070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4), 070900Z6 (DTG 070751Z0) AND
071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7).//

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