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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number   4
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663
WTPZ41 KNHC 180853
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 18 1997

WE SEEM TO BE AT SOMEWHAT OF A DISADVANTAGE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
ONE GOES9 IMAGE SINCE 04Z AND NO AVIATION MODEL RUN SINCE 18Z
YESTERDAY.  THE 06Z INFRARED GOES9 IMAGE CONINUES TO SUGGEST A
SHEARING PATTERN WITH ONLY A LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH 0F
WHERE THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED.  IGNACIO CAN BE VIEWED
ON THE EDGE OF GOES8 AND FOR WHICH AN 0815Z IMAGE IS AVAILABLE AND
THIS VIEW SORT OF AGREES WITH THE LIMITED INFO FROM GOES9.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12.  THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS A
SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THREE DAYS.  THE UKMET
MODEL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 12 HOURS.  THE LBAR MODEL SHOWS AN
ACCELERATING NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.

BECAUSE OF THE DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND SHEARING AND COOLER
SSTS...IGNACIO IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AND IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSERVATIVE AND THE DEPRESSION WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER.  SOME OF THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WILL PROBABLY BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     18/0900Z 24.3N 120.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 25.9N 120.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 28.1N 121.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     20/0600Z 34.0N 121.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING

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