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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 091851z Nov 97//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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111
WTPN21 PGTW 091900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 091851Z NOV 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7N8
141.7E3 TO 11.8N0 137.4E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 091630Z INDICATE THAT A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N3 141.1E7. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
MARIANA ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. UPPER AIR REPORTS FROM YAP (WMO 91413) AND GUAM
(WMO 91217) INDICATE A MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IS
ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE LOCATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS DERIVED FROM THIS IMAGERY
INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS ALSO SLOWLY
IMPROVING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION
IS NOW BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1009MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 101900Z1.//

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