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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 061
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
X-UIDL: 205c0e24a8bd953c131aeb03380340da
Status: U
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666
WTPN31 PGTW 171500
1. SUPER TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 061
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- 13.7N1 141.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG1969 UNCLAS
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 141.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 13.8N2 139.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 13.9N3 138.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG1969 UNCLAS
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.0N5 136.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.1N6 134.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG1969 UNCLAS
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 14.3N8 131.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION 13.7N1 141.1E7
SUPER TYPHOON PAKA (05C) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 171030Z2 ENHANCED

PAGE 06 RUHPSGG1969 UNCLAS
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE SYSTEM HAS RE-
INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND APPEARS BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER WHEN IT PASSED THROUGH
THE MARIANAS ISLANDS.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DERIVED ESTIMATES OF 140
AND 155 KNOTS, AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
BY 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 38 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 (DTG 171951Z4),
180300Z2 (DTG 180151Z6), 180900Z8 (DTG 180751Z2) AND
181500Z5 (DTG 181351Z9).//
BT
#1969

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