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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number  28 [210818]
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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711
WTPZ43 KNHC 210818
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 21 1997

FELICIA IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER 24 TO 25C
WATER AND THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS INCREASED.  SINCE ONLY MINIMAL
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS...FELICIA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.
CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DUE TO PERSISTENT SHEAR.

THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON INFRARED IMAGERY...BUT BEST GUESS
AT INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14.  THE LOWER-LEVEL STEERING WILL ALLOW
THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE WHICH SHOULD BRING WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE SHALLOW LAYER
BAM AND THE CLIPER...AND IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM IN AROUND 60 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE REMNANTS OF THIS CYCLONE MAY MOVE CLOSE TO THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM BUT RAINFALL COULD
WELL BE ENHANCED.  SINCE FELICIA WILL BE MOVING WEST OF 140W BY
1500Z...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     21/0900Z 17.5N 139.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 17.9N 141.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.3N 144.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 18.8N 146.8W    35 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 19.2N 149.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N 154.5W    25 KTS

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