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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Nineteen-e Discussion Number   3
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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665
WTPZ44 KNHC 080834
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM PST SAT NOV 08 1997

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION
HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION AND THE T-NUMBERS
CONTINUE AROUND 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO BE INTERMITTENT NEAR THE CENTER.  INTENSITY MODELS...INCLUDING
GFDL...SHOW STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM IN 6 TO 18 HOURS AND THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 360/07.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TURNS THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE MODELS AND BRINGS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT
FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...INCLUDING ACAPULCO.

JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     08/0900Z 12.4N 104.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 13.6N 104.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 15.5N 103.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 17.0N 101.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 18.6N  98.8W    30 KTS...INLAND

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