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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number   9 [141437]
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Status: OR

509
WTPZ42 KNHC 141437
TCDEP2
HURRICANE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 14 1997

THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC AS YESTERDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT ENRIQUE
HAS PEAKED.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH
LATEST ESTIMATES FROM SAB...AFGWC...AND TAFB.  THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/13.  THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
27N 132W SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO TURN ENRIQUE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER
...THE MID TO UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS ENRIQUE WEAKENS AND
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVIDE THE BEST STEERING LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  CURRENT TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LAYER BAM.  THE DEEP LAYER BAM AND THE
GFDL ARE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR TRACK WHILE THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE
NAVY NOGAPS ARE TO THE LEFT.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     14/1500Z 15.1N 123.8W    90 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.4N 125.3W    90 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.1N 127.4W    85 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.8N 129.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 24.5N 132.5W    55 KTS

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