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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm Paka (05c) Warning Nr 021
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
X-UIDL: 74de7f9e0ed6e6fcf5ab10d411186d5f
Status: RO
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933
WTPN31 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL STORM PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- 8.3N1 178.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 8.3N1 178.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 8.5N3 176.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 8.8N6 174.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 9.3N2 172.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 10.2N3 169.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 12.1N4 164.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 8.4N2 178.1E7
TROPICAL STORM PAKA (05C) HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DERIVED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 35 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TS PAKA HAS INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED
TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS
TS PAKA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL
EASTERLY FLOW. AFTER THE 36 HOUR PERIOD THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTH-WESTWARD AS A WEAKENING
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS. AT THE 36 HOUR PERIOD
TS PAKA IS ALSO FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z), 080900Z7
(DTG 080751Z) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081351).//

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