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Date:	Wed, 19 Nov 1997 23:56:44 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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143
ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/200600Z/210600Z NOV 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/191951Z NOV 97//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE
THAN 12 HOURS NEAR 26.5N3 162.0E9. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BENEATH MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS. HOWEVER, SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS
AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST MAY MERGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ALSO, SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 25C TO 26C WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1012 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE
THAN 18 HOURS NEAR 15N6 169E6. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BENEATH THE DIVERGENT, SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
A TUTT CELL. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA ALSO
INDICATE A WEAK, LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE TROUGH NEAR 10N1
162E9. HOWEVER, SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS
AREA AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR EXISTS OVER THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 191800Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.8S4 160.2E9 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE
05P (NUTE) WARNING NR 04 (WTPS31 PGTW 192100)) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE
THAN 12 HOURS NEAR 6S6 172E0. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A BROAD, LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED BENEATH WEAK, UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/HONG/BACON//

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