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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number  41
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565
WTPZ44 KNHC 092046
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 1997

IT APPEARS THAT GUILLERMO HAS TAKEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE
LAST SIX HOURS.  HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER.  IF THE
CENTER IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOSER TO 140W
THE INITIAL TRACK DIRECTION WOULD BE MORE NORTHWEST.  IF IT IS IN
THE DEEP CONVECTION THEN THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/09.  THIS IS THE
DIRECTION I HAVE CHOSEN.  APPARENTLY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF GUILLERMO HAS WEAKENED ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
NORTHWARD.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A TURN BACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER BAMM...LBAR...AND NHC91 RECURVE THE SYSTEM.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS.

ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INTERMITTENT DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF GUILLERMO.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AND GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

IF THE STORM MOVES WEST OF 140W IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS THEN THE NEXT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
RATHER THAN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  IN THAT EVENT THE HEADER
FOR THE DISCUSSION WILL BE WTPA44 PHNL...FORECAST/ADVISORY WILL BE
WTPA24 PHNL...AND PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE WTPA34 PHNL.

JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     09/2100Z 22.5N 139.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 23.8N 139.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     10/1800Z 25.5N 140.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     11/0600Z 27.3N 140.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING

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