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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Jimena Discussion Number  13
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916
WTPZ42 KNHC 281444
TCDEP2
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 28 1997

THE EYE MADE A DISTINCT COMEBACK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO JIMENA
IS PROBABLY MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW.  HOWEVER THE CYCLONE
IS LIKELY TO CROSS THE 26 DEG SST ISOTHERM TODAY AND SHEARING WILL
BE INCREASING IN THE HURRICANES ENVIRONMENT.  A WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
330/12.  AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE TRACK FORECAST IS
COMPLICATED BY THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
WE EXPECT A GENERALLY WESTWARD STEERING...BUT IN THE MID- TO UPPER-
TROPOSPHERE...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS INDICATED.  THUS THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SPREAD ACROSS A 180 DEG ARC.  WHEN JIMENA
WEAKENS TO BELOW STORM STRENGTH...THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
DOMINATE.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A BIT TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL FAVORS THE LEFT PORTION OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     28/1500Z 18.1N 137.6W   105 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 19.3N 139.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 20.5N 140.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 21.5N 141.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 22.2N 142.8W    50 KTS
72HR VT     31/1200Z 23.0N 145.0W    30 KTS

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