

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.5/8.8.5) with SMTP id VAA248846;
Sun, 10 Aug 1997 21:41:57 -0500
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 6030807 for
[email-masked]; Sun, 10 Aug 1997 21:41:53 -0500
Received: from twister.lib.siu.edu (twister.lib.siu.edu [131.230.72.8]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.5/8.8.5) with ESMTP id VAA110842 for
<[email-masked]>; Sun, 10 Aug 1997 21:41:52 -0500
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by twister.lib.siu.edu (8.8.6/8.8.5) id VAA24746
for [email-masked]; Sun, 10 Aug 1997 21:41:39 -0500 (CDT)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Sun, 10 Aug 1997 21:41:53 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Ten-e Discussion Number   5
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
X-UIDL: 2a9c102aa07ee91130f0fadf53c1647f
X-Mozilla-Status: 0001
Content-Length: 2101
Status: OR

800
WTPZ45 KNHC 110240
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 1997

LAST LIGHT VISIBLE PICTURES SHOWED THE CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED... TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE...HOWEVER IT IS
SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK.  INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD...315/06.  THE CHANGE IN
INITIAL MOTION REQUIRES SOME LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL
NHC91.  THE SHALLOW/MEDIUM LEVEL BAM AND GFDL MODELS FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TRAJECTORY BUT ARE FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LESS-
ORGANIZED LOOKING THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE WITHIN 10 DEG TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS MID/UPPER
CYCLONE IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  THEREFORE I HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  IN 24 HOURS OR SO IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST SO THAT THE SHEARING WILL DIMINISH...AND ALLOW SOME
STRENGTHENING TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     11/0300Z 12.4N 115.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 13.0N 116.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 13.8N 117.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 14.7N 119.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 17.0N 125.5W    55 KTS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.