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Date:	Sat, 27 Dec 1997 09:59:56 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

019
WTXS32 PGTW 271500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- 15.2S8 109.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 109.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.7S3 108.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 16.3S0 107.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 17.0S8 105.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.9S7 104.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION 15.3S9  109.6E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271036Z9
MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I). INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A 7 NM
CLOUD FILLED EYE.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
A SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF CI4.0 (65
KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE STEERING IS PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09S (SELWYN) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSITY
VERY SLOWLY DUE TO SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG 280153Z9) AND 281500Z6 (DTG
281353Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#2546

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