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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Mort (31w) Warning Nr 013
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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256
WTPN31 PGTW 132100
1. TYPHOON MORT (31W) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- 14.1N6 130.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N6 130.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 14.3N8 129.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 14.5N0 127.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 15.0N6 126.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 15.8N4 124.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 17.7N5 122.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION 14.1N6  130.2E6
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TYPHOON MORT (31W) HAS
DEVELOPED AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
STILL ENCOUNTERING MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR FROM THE
SHORT WAVE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. 131730Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE INTENSITY HAS REMAINED
CONSTANT AT 65 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE FORECAST
TRACK CONCURS WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING AS TY MORT
CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD AS IT IS
INFLUENCED BY THE SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH. AFTER 48 HOURS
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL BUILD
AND INTRODUCE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INTO THE REGION
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TY MORT AS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITION NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG
140153Z4), 140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0), 141500Z1 (DTG
141353Z7) AND 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3).//

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