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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NC: Tropical Storm Paka Discussion Number   4
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814
WTPA41 PHNL 030900
TROPICAL STORM PAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST TUE DEC 02 1997

PAKA HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT MAY BE
ENTERING A BRIEF DECAY PERIOD. HOWEVER THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE WEST NORTHWEST FORECAST TRACK OF PAKA IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THOSE OF THE GFDL AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS. INITIALLY
PAKA MOVES SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST AND THEN ACCELERATES A BIT AS IT
NEARS 10N WHERE THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES INCREASE. ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS LATITUDE APPEARS DOUBTFUL AS INCREASING SHEAR
IS ENCOUNTERED IN THE FORM OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. LARSON

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     03/0900Z  8.2N 167.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z  8.7N 168.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z  9.3N 170.3W    60 KTS
36HR VT     04/1800Z  9.9N 172.3W    65 KTS
48HR VT     05/0600Z 10.4N 174.7W    70 KTS
72HR VT     06/0600Z 11.4N 179.3W    70 KTS

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