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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number  13
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343
WTPZ45 KNHC 130231
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 1997

THE STORM HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A BURSTING-TYPE PATTERN OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES.  INTENSITY
ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAK EXCEPT
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN
INTERACTING WITH HILDA IS NOW NEARLY 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE SHEARING OVER THE STORM MAY BE LESSENING.
I WILL FORECAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.

MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...290/10.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL TRACK
PREDICTION GUIDANCE.  THE AVN AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE CALL FOR AN
ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD MOVEMENT.  HOWEVER IT IS FELT THAT THE
EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF HILDA SHOULD MAINTAIN A MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     13/0300Z 13.9N 121.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.4N 123.2W    50 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 15.0N 125.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 15.8N 127.3W    60 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N 129.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W    65 KTS

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