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Date:	Sat, 19 Jul 1997 03:52:34 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northwestpac [190900]
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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685
WTPN31 PGTW 190900
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- 12.0N3 138.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N3 138.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 13.2N6 138.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 14.4N9 138.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 15.5N1 137.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 16.6N3 137.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 18.3N2 136.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION 12.3N6  138.5E7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 6 KNOTS.  THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BECAUSE A VECTOR
DRAWN FROM THE PREVIOUS TO THE CURRENT WARNING POSITION
IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF SYSTEM MOTION.  RELOCATION IS
BASED ON A 190111Z3 SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TD10W TO BEGIN TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS NOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO SYSTEM INTERACTION WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CELLS.  TD 10W IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE
AT 6 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT MOTION AND DYNAMIC GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0), 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6),
200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9) AND 200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5).//

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