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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 041
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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406
WTPN31 PGTW 121500
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- 8.0N8 165.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

PAGE 03 RUEOMCB2409 UNCLAS //NO3145//
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 8.0N8 165.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 8.4N2 163.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:

PAGE 04 RUEOMCB2409 UNCLAS //NO3145//
131200Z7 --- 8.8N6 161.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 9.2N1 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

PAGE 05 RUEOMCB2409 UNCLAS //NO3145//
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 9.6N5 156.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 10.8N9 150.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:

PAGE 06 RUEOMCB2409 UNCLAS //NO3145//
121500Z9 POSITION: 8.2N0 164.5E6
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TYPHOON PAKA (05C)
CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A 19 NM EYE AND A 121100Z5
DOPPLER RADAR REPORT FROM KWAJALEIN (WMO 91366). THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS. THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS PAKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO THE WEST OF A WEAKENING IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, TY PAKA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD
MOTION AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN AREA OF EASTERLY FLOW. TY PAKA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 23 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z),

PAGE 07 RUEOMCB2409 UNCLAS //NO3145//
130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z), 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z) AND
131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z).//
BT
#2409

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