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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   2
[142050]
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754
WTPZ43 KNHC 142050 COR
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 14 1997

,,,CORRECTION FOR DEPRESSION NUMBER IN HEADER...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ABOUT 760 NM SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BANDING TYPE CONVECTION MOST OBVIOUS ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION ESTIMATES OF 30 TO
35 KT REFLECT A SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK OVER WARM WATER BUT INFLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST IS BEING DISRUPTED BY STRONGER INFLOW INTO HURRICANE
ENRIQUE.  UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POOR.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE EFFECTS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT
TREND SLOW FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS PROVIDED A FAIR ESTIMATE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH REMAINS NON DISTINCT.  INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 290/12. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH
36 HOURS INDICATING A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 130W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AND COULD PROVIDE STEERING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN TWO
DAYS...RESULTING IN A TRACK FOLLOWING HURRICANE ENRIQUE.

LYONS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     14/2100Z 10.6N 110.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 11.0N 112.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 11.6N 114.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 12.1N 117.7W    50 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 12.6N 120.7W    55 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 13.5N 127.0W    65 KTS

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