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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number  30
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091
WTPZ44 KNHC 070229
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 06 1997

THE EYE DISAPPEARED FROM GOES IR AND VISIBLE PICTURES AROUND 2230Z
AND THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY TRACES OF IT SINCE.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS WERE
5.5 AT 00Z...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS.
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ALSO NO LONGER SYMMETRICAL...WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS NOW ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND SOME EROSION OF
THE OUTFLOW NOTED OVER THE NW QUADRANT. GUILLERMO CONTINUES HEADING
TOWARD ABOUT 285/14 KT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF HAWAII.  THE 18Z AVN INDICATES
THAT THE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE WESTERN PART OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
THROUGH NORTHWEST OF GUILLERMO.  IF GUILLERMO DOES NOT CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY...BECOMING STEERED BY CURRENTS IN THE LOWER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...THEN THIS COULD RESULT IN DECELERATION AND A
SOMEWHAT GREATER NORTHWARD COMPONENT BY 72 HOURS.  REGARDLESS...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
EVENTUALLY THROUGH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.   THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE OBSERVED
WEAKENING TREND.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     07/0300Z 16.4N 130.3W   100 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.9N 132.4W    85 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 17.7N 135.4W    70 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 18.6N 138.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 140.8W    50 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 21.0N 145.5W    40 KTS

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