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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Jimena Discussion Number  11
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497
WTPZ42 KNHC 280239
TCDEP2
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 27 1997

THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED FROM IR AND VIS PICTURES.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT.  AS NOTED YESTEREDAY...JIMENAS SMALL
SIZE MAKES THE CYCLONE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RELATIVELY QUICK INTENSITY
CHANGES...AND A SOMEWHAT MORE RAPID DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS
FORECAST THAN IS SHOWN BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS.  THE INITIAL MOTION
REMAINS N TO NNW...AT 9 KT.

THE 12Z AVN SHOWED STRONG RIDGING TO THE THE NORTH OF JIMENA IN THE
WAKE OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST.  IN
RESPONSE...THAT MODEL TURNED JIMENA RATHER SHARPLY TOWARD THE LEFT
AND MAINTAINED A WESTWARD HEADING AT 15N FROM TOMORROW MORNING INTO
SATURDAY.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS USING THE 12Z AVN AS INPUT SHOW
A MORE MODEST TURN...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WNW...AND THIS IS ALSO
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE 18Z AVN TRACK IS FAIRLY CLOSE
TO THIS AS WELL.

A RECENT AFGWC 34 KT WIND RADII ANALYSIS BASED ON SSM/I DATA WAS
CONSISTENT WITH WITH PREVIOUS NHC ESTIMATES...SO NO CHANGE TO THESE
PARAMETERS WAS MADE IN THIS ADVISORY.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     28/0300Z 15.6N 136.4W   105 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.9N 136.9W    95 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 18.2N 137.9W    80 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 19.0N 139.2W    65 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 20.0N 143.5W    40 KTS

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