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Date:	Tue, 16 Dec 1997 02:19:16 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 056
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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316
WTPN31 PGTW 160900
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 056
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- 13.7N1 145.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 145.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 13.8N2 143.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 13.9N3 141.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.0N5 139.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 20 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 14.0N5 138.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 14.0N5 134.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION: 13.7N1 144.9E8
LATEST ANIMATED DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TYPHOON PAKA
(05C) HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED AN OUTER
EYEWALL WHICH IS SLOWLY DECREASING IN SIZE. AS THE OUTER
EYEWALL DECREASES IN DIAMETER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF A SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES UP TO
134 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 160535Z0
DOPPLER RADAR REPORT AND 160530Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TY PAKA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS THE EYEWALL COMPLETES ITS
CYCLE. AFTERWARDS, TY PAKA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TY PAKA
MAY STALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND TURN ON A
MORE NORTHERLY COURSE ALONG THE MARIANA ISLAND CHAIN. THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS PHILOSOPHY AS A
RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF PAKA. THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS AS PAKA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
MOSTLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3
IS 39 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (161351Z),
162100Z0 (DTG 161951Z), 170300Z1 (DTG 170151Z) AND
170900Z7 (DTG 170751Z).//

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