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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NC: Tropical Storm Paka Discussion Number  12
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674
WTPA41 PHNL 050900
TROPICAL STORM PAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST THU DEC 04 1997

TROPICAL STORM PAKA APPEARS LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AS THE
LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE STORM SHOWS CONVECTION POPPING
UP WHERE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE PREVALENT. EARLIER TODAY A SMALL
DRY SLOT APPEARED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AS IF UPPER WESTERLIES
WERE MAKING THEMSELVES FELT WITH THE RESULTANT EFFECTS OF
SHEARING. THE SOUTHERN TWIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF
SAMOA THAT LOOKED DISORGANIZED YESTERDAY NOW LOOKS MUCH BETTER. SO
THESE SYSTEMS DO GO THROUGH THEIR CYCLES THAT MAY BE CORRELATED IN
SOME FASHION. HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY OF PAKA AT CURRENT LEVELS
TILL WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF TRENDS. ALSO HAVE KEPT THE TRACK
GENERALLY UNCHANGED WEST NORTHWESTWARD THOUGH A TAD SLOWER AS PAKA
APPROACHES THE DATELINE.  ROSENDAL

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     05/0900Z  9.1N 173.1W    50 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z  9.3N 174.1W    50 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z  9.7N 175.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z  9.9N 177.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 10.4N 179.1W    45 KTS
72HR VT     08/0600Z 11.2N 176.1E    40 KTS

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