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349
WTIO21 PGTW 090700
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 090651Z NOV 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N4

PAGE 02 RUHGSGG9115 UNCLAS
75.0E2 TO 10.6N7 68.3E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.  METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.3N4 73.5E5.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS WHILE OVER THE ARABIAN SEA.  A MICROWAVE
IMAGERY PASS AT 090049Z2 REVEALED THE PRESENCE OF A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND DEVELOPING BANDING
FEATURES.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 100700Z8.//
BT
#9115

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