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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number  20
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951
WTPZ45 KNHC 142033
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 14 1997

DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ONLY OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND
THE CIRCULATION OF LOW CLOUDS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE.  THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 25
KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS
DEPICTED BY THE BAMS OUTPUT...ROUGHLY A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT
MOTION...290/14 KT.

HILDA IS BARELY WORTHY OF CONTINUING ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT AND
ANY FURTHER WEAKENING WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO THE CESSATION OF OUR
FORECASTS.  WITH HILDA MOVING SWIFTLY OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS...THIS COULD OCCUR SOON.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     14/2100Z 16.8N 129.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.6N 131.7W    25 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.8N 134.2W    25 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.1N 136.9W    25 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.6N 139.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING

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