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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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428
WTIO32 PGTW 101500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 11.7N9 67.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N9 67.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 12.1N4 66.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 12.5N8 65.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 13.0N4 64.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 13.4N8 62.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 13.9N3 61.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 11.8N0   67.5E8
POSITION BASED ON 101232Z9 SATELLITE FIX FROM AIR FORCE
GLOBAL WEATHER CENTRAL. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE=S INTENSITY HAS REMAINED CONSTANT.
TC 04A IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD AS A WEAKENING IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE ARABIAN SEA. AFTERWARDS, TC 04A IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AND MAINTAIN
THAT INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AFTER THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7), 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9),
110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2).//

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