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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  25 [201452]
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180
WTPZ43 KNHC 201452
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 1997

THE INTENSITY OF FELICIA APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING WITH
CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY T NUMBERS RANGING FROM 4.5 TO 5.5. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 100 KTS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MARGINALLY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...FELICIA IS APPROACHING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY OF FELICIA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE RAPIDLY
AFTER 12 HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND A
MORE HOSTILE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT.

TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS FELICIA
APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...ALL  MODELS EXCEPT THE
DEEP BAM INDICATE THAT THE GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DEMARIA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     20/1500Z 16.8N 134.8W   100 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 17.2N 137.1W    95 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 17.9N 140.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 18.6N 142.6W    60 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 19.3N 145.1W    50 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 20.8N 149.9W    30 KTS

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