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Date:	Mon, 27 Jan 1997 07:47:50 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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Status: OR

357
WTXS32 PGTW 271500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- 26.5S3 37.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S3 37.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 27.3S2 36.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 28.4S4 35.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 29.4S5 35.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 30.5S8 34.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION 26.7S5   37.0E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS ARE BASED ON 270830Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. GRETELLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DURING THE
FIRST 36 HOURS. THEN, GRETELLE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND STRONGER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TOWARD 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S
(PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z3 (DTG 280155Z1) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281355Z4).//

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