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Date:	Fri, 31 Jan 1997 01:52:12 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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Status: OR

248
WTXS31 PGTW 310900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z0 --- 15.4S0 88.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 88.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 15.8S4 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.2S9 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 16.5S2 84.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 17.0S8 83.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION 15.5S1   88.3E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD. SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SLOW NEAR THE
48 HOUR POSITION AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7
(DTG 311953Z2) AND 010900Z0 (DTG 010753Z6). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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