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Date:	Mon, 27 Jan 1997 20:24:45 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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Status: O

266
WTXS32 PGTW 280300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNING NR 019
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- 26.2S0 36.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S0 36.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 26.4S2 35.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 26.7S5 35.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 27.1S0 35.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 27.5S4 35.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION 26.2S0   36.0E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 4 KNOTS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. TC 20S IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AND TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE
48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG
281355Z4) AND 290300Z4 (DTG 290155Z2). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 28/0000Z0 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) AND TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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