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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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753
ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/210600Z/220600Z NOV 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/201951Z NOV 97//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
NEAR 26.5N3 162.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26N8 160E7. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BENEATH MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF A TUTT
CELL. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS AREA AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST MAY MERGE WITH THIS SYSTEM
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALSO, SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 25C TO 26C WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1012 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
NEAR 15N6 169E6 HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND MERGED WITH THE
SYSTEM DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1).
(3) AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS NEAR 26N8 137E1. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BENEATH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE.
HOWEVER, HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES, MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND SOME BAROCLINIC
CHARACTERISTICS WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
ALSO, SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 25C TO 26C WHICH
IS MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1013 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 201800Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NUTE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.5S5 158.4E8 AND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT
10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE
05P (NUTE) WARNING NR 06A AMENDED AND RELOCATED (WTPS31
PGTW 202100)) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
NEAR 06S6 172E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 07S7 173E1. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW, 25 TO 30 KNOT
EASTERLY WINDS, AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WIND
FIELDS, ARE PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR ON THIS
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/EIBLING/BACON//

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