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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Rick Discussion Number  12
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011
WTPZ44 KNHC 100839
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM PST MON NOV 10 1997

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE CENTER OF
RICK MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORELINE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THIS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 070/13.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ALL SHOW A MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST CONTINUING AND THIS
SHOULD BRING THE HURRICANE COMPLETELY INLAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SOME FILLING HAS OCCURRED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT
55 KNOTS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNINGS TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE SAME STRETCH OF COAST.

JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     10/0900Z 16.1N  95.2W    55 KTS...ONSHORE
12HR VT     10/1800Z 16.9N  93.4W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     11/0600Z 18.4N  91.1W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     11/1800Z 20.0N  88.8W     0 KTS...DISSIPATING

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