

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.5/8.8.5) with SMTP id PAA33322;
Mon, 4 Aug 1997 15:46:10 -0500
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 6083812 for
[email-masked]; Mon, 4 Aug 1997 15:45:56 -0500
Received: from twister.lib.siu.edu (twister.lib.siu.edu [131.230.72.8]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.5/8.8.5) with ESMTP id PAA79128 for
<[email-masked]>; Mon, 4 Aug 1997 15:45:55 -0500
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by twister.lib.siu.edu (8.8.6/8.8.5) id PAA20867
for [email-masked]; Mon, 4 Aug 1997 15:45:44 -0500 (CDT)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Mon, 4 Aug 1997 15:45:56 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number  21 [042020]
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
X-UIDL: 0925d2b2d60b96c8aec3acd97f2a231f
X-Mozilla-Status: 0001
Content-Length: 1977
Status: OR

102
WTPZ44 KNHC 042020
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 04 1997

GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO HAVE A SPECTACULAR REPRESENTATION IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PLUS EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES.  THE DVORAK
OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS HAVE AVERAGED A LITTLE OVER 7.0 FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS...160
MPH...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.
THIS MAKES GUILLERMO A SOLID CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE THIS
INTENSITY BEING SUSTAINED FOR VERY LONG...AND A LITTLE WEAKENING IS
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS FORECAST
NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS GUILLERMO APPROACHES 25C
WATER.  HOWEVER...GUILLERMO WILL STILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL HURRICANE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  A
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST TRACK IS FORECAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT
STRONG DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS
TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE UKMET AND NWS AVIATION MODELS...BUT SLOWER
THAN THE NOGAPS AND GFDL.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     04/2100Z 14.3N 117.3W   140 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 119.4W   135 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 15.0N 122.2W   130 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 15.5N 124.9W   125 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.2N 127.7W   115 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 17.5N 133.0W   100 KTS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.