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160
WTIO32 PGTW 071500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY
DHAKA
1. TROPICAL STORM LINDA (30W) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---

PAGE 02 RUHGSGG8347 UNCLAS
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- 15.4N0 90.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N0 90.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 16.2N9 90.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 17.3N1 90.7E6

PAGE 03 RUHGSGG8347 UNCLAS
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.8N7 91.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 20.4N6 93.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---

PAGE 04 RUHGSGG8347 UNCLAS
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 15.6N2   90.5E4
TROPICAL STORM LINDA (30W) HAS TRACKED SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED
OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -86C TO
-88C AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NO LONGER EXPOSED.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CURRENT T-NUMBER OF
T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND THE COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE SYSTEM
CENTER. IF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES NEAR THE
SYSTEM CENTER, THEN ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR
AND LINDA MAY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO TYPHOON INTENSITY
AGAIN IN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE AMONG OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE WHICH IS GOOD
INDICATION OF SLOW MOVEMENT. WE STILL EXPECT LINDA TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
A MODERATE PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT LINDA WILL
SHEAR APART AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MYANMAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT

PAGE 05 RUHGSGG8347 UNCLAS
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5),
080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8).//
BT
#8347

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