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063
WTIO21 PGTW 201300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201251Z AUG 97//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA, AMEMBASSY

PAGE 02 RUHGSGG7564 UNCLAS
NEW DEHLI, AMEMBASSY DHAKA, AND USDAO DHAKA BG.
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.9N9
89.0E7 TO 21.3N6 86.0E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
201030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N9 87.0E5.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH THE
DECREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 211300Z7.//
BT
#7564

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