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Date:	Fri, 26 Dec 1997 01:23:49 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

404
WTXS31 PGTW 260300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- 11.2S4 132.1E7

PAGE 02 RUEDMCA3888 UNCLAS
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 132.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 11.1S3 133.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 11.1S3 133.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 03 RUEDMCA3888 UNCLAS
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 11.2S4 134.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 11.4S6 134.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION 11.2S4  132.4E0
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURROUNDING

PAGE 04 RUEDMCA3888 UNCLAS
SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS DEVELOPED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS DEVELOPED
INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA FROM MCCLUER ISLAND
(WMO 94135), CAPE DON (WMO 94129) AND SURROUNDING SHIP
REPORTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT IS
STEERED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. AFTER 12
HOURS TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS THE
LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WEAKENS. ALTHOUGH TC 08S HAS
INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWER THAN AN AVERAGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. ADDITIONALLY, AT THE
24 HOUR PERIOD TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8) AND
270300Z2. //
BT
#3888

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