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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number  25 [052031]
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302
WTPZ44 KNHC 052031
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE...BUT THE EYE
IS NOW LARGER AND THE SURROUNDING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS COLD AS
EARLIER.  DVORAK OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW ESTIMATED AT
135 KNOTS...155 MPH.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE
EXPECTED...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A RECENT NAVAL RESEARCH LAB
85 GHZ SSM/I DATA DISPLAY WHICH SHOWS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL PATTERN.
ALTHOUGH SOME OVERALL SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...GUILLERMO WILL STILL REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE.
ON OUR TRACK...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER COOLER THAN
26C NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AT WHICH TIME MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14.  OUR TRACK SHOWS A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN
RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  OUR TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS MODEL AND THE SLOWER AVIATION
MODEL.  IF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS MORE THAN IS FORECAST...
GUILLERMO WILL MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR TRACK AND OVER SOMEWHAT
COOLER WATER WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FASTER WEAKENING. IF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...GUILLERMO WILL TRACK MORE
TOWARD THE WEST OVER SOMEWHAT WARMER WATER WHICH WOULD RESULT IS A
SLOWER RATE OF DECAY THAN FORECAST.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     05/2100Z 14.7N 123.1W   135 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 14.9N 125.2W   130 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 128.0W   125 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.2N 130.5W   120 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W   105 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 137.5W    90 KTS

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