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Date:	Mon, 29 Dec 1997 21:47:48 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

287
WTXS32 PGTW 300300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- 17.1S9 103.0E4

PAGE 02 RUEDMCA5022 UNCLAS
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 103.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 16.4S1 101.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 15.5S1 99.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

PAGE 03 RUEDMCA5022 UNCLAS
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION 16.9S6  102.6E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 292330Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CURRENTLY, THE
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE
NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTER.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING TO REFLECT
THE MORE RECENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

PAGE 04 RUEDMCA5022 UNCLAS
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNING AT 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5).//
BT
#5022

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