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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
[170600]
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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963
ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/170600Z/180600Z JUL 97//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15N6 115E7 IS NOW NEAR 15N6 112E4 AND HAS MOVED OVER
LAND. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISORGANIZED WITH NO
EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS THEREFORE NOT
CONSIDERED TO BE SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4N4 161E8 IS NOW NEAR 5N5 158E4. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTION IS
LESS SCATTERED AND MAY BE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF
ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1008 MB. CROSS EQUATORIAL INFLOW AND INCREASED
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION. HOWEVER,
SEA LEVEL PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH AND THE SYSTEM=S POSITION
REMAINS AT VERY LOW LATITUDES. ACCORDINGLY, THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8N8 137E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8N8 138E2. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CROSS EQUATORIAL
INFLOW AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NO LONGER A
FACTOR. HOWEVER, IN SPITE OF THESE POSITIVE CONDITIONS
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS INCONSISTENT AND
DISORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5S5 157E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3S3 158E4.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS FORMED AS A TWIN TO THE CIRCULATION MENTIONED IN B.2
ABOVE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BOYER/DEOCARIZA/EIBLING//

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