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Date:	Mon, 27 Jan 1997 14:24:00 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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Status: OR

189
WTXS33 PGTW 272100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- 17.5S3 70.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 70.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 17.8S6 69.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 18.4S3 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.0S0 68.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 20.0S2 67.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION 17.6S4   70.5E2
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 (DTG 280757Z9) AND 282100Z3
(DTG 281957Z2). TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) HAS BEEN
QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.  WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF 271730Z AND 271910Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  ILETTA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ITS
FORWARD MOTION GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN WEAK
DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 19 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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