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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number  37
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664
WTPZ44 KNHC 082023
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 08 1997

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAKENING
TREND OUT TO 72 HOURS.

IN THE PAST SIX HOURS GUILLERMO HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OR 305/11. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT BEYOND
24 HOURS.  ONE GROUP OF MODELS RECURVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. A SECOND GROUP MOVES THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND SEVERAL
OTHERS KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK. SINCE GUILLERMO IS WEAKENING...AND BECOMING A SHALLOW
SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED BY THE MID TO LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
BE A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.

JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     08/2100Z 19.9N 137.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 20.9N 139.1W    50 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 21.9N 140.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 23.1N 142.2W    30 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 24.2N 143.6W    25 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 26.5N 145.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING

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