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Date:	Thu, 30 Jan 1997 14:25:04 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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Status: OR

598
WTXS31 PGTW 302100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- 14.9S4 90.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 90.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 15.5S1 88.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 15.8S4 87.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.0S7 86.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 16.0S7 86.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION 15.1S7   89.7E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 301730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-
DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S
IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HEAD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION. PANCHO-HELINDA IS ALSO
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 (DTG
310753Z9) AND 312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2).//

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