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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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629
WTIO32 PGTW 120300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- 13.7N1 64.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 64.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 14.3N8 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 14.9N4 63.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 15.5N1 62.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 16.1N8 62.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 17.6N4 62.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION 13.9N3   64.3E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF CI
3.5 (55 TO 60 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KGWC AND KWBC SATELLITE
ANALYSTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS, AND ALSO DUE TO THE
SURROUNDING ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE PRESSURES. TC 04A
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED
BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THERE IS
MUCH LESS DIVERGENCE AMONG OUR OBJECTIVE FORECAST AIDS
OUT THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THE LATEST GFDN MODEL RUN WAS
VERY CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED
THAT TRACK CLOSELY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT TC 04A WILL RECURVE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 111200Z5 NOGAPS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO
FORECAST VERY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE FOLLOWED OUR
CLIMATOLOGY MODELS CLOSELY FOR THE TRACK SPEED. THE GFDN
AND FBAM MODELS TRACK TC 04A RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM
OUR 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION WHICH WE FEEL IS A LITTLE
TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
ACROSS THE ARABIAN SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z3 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR
DDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6), 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3),
122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9) AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1).//

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