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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  13 [171444]
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708
WTPZ43 KNHC 171444
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUL 17 1997

FELICIA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER SOME SHEARING STRESS...BUT SEEMS TO BE
HOLDING ITS OWN.  WE STILL EXPECT SOME ROOM FOR INTENSIFICATION
BETWEEN THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AND COOL WATER...THEREFORE OUR
FORECAST IS STEADY 24 H THEN SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY DECAY
IN THE FINAL 24 H.

THE TRACK IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS HAS BEEN WORKING.  NONE OF THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANYTHING SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THEREFORE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS MADE
TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED PRESENT MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     17/1500Z 14.0N 118.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 14.8N 120.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.4N 122.1W    65 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 15.9N 124.2W    70 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 126.2W    70 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W    60 KTS

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