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Date:	Mon, 27 Jan 1997 14:57:47 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
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Status: OR

503
WTXS21 PGTW 272100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 272051Z JAN 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S4
105.1E7 TO 16.3S0 110.3E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 271730Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7 106.1E8.  THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WHICH HAS PERSISTED WEST OF
AUSTRALIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS LESSENED RECENTLY OVER THIS
SYSTEM AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONVERGED TOWARD THIS
SYSTEM=S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A SHIP REPORT OF
30 KNOT SURFACE WINDS AND A SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 999 MB
HAS BEEN MADE FROM THIS AREA.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 282100Z3.//

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