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Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Twelve-e Discussion Number   2
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174
WTPZ42 KNHC 260251
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 25 1997

THERE WEERE FAIRLY GOOD BANDING FEATURES AT 23Z AND TAFB AND SAB
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CLOUD TOPS WARMED UP A LITTLE BETWEEN
23Z AND 01Z AND NOW THERE MAY BE A SMALL CDO FORMING.  I AM
REFRAINING FROM UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO A STORM ON THIS ADVISORY
BUT IF THE LATEST TREND CONTINUES...IT WILL PROBABLY BE UPGRADED ON
THE NEXT ADVISORY.  WITH WARM WATER AND NO EVIDENCE OF SHEARING
...THE FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND SHIFOR GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09.  THE AVIATION MODEL SUGGESTS
A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SUCH THAT THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
FORECAST A HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OF 285 DEGREES FOR CLIPER
RANGING TO 315 DEGREES FOR THE GFLD MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL
LEFT OF MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     26/0300Z 11.4N 134.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 11.5N 136.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 11.7N 138.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 12.1N 139.9W    45 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 12.5N 141.7W    50 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 13.6N 145.0W    55 KTS

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