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Subject:      Pacific-NC: Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number  57
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589
WTPA44 PHNL 132100
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST WED AUG 13 1997

GUILLERMO HAS SHOWN INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS
WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND INCREASING IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
THE MAX WINDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/3.0.
THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED THROUGH 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS GUILLERMO TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN
48 HOURS. GUILLERMO IS PROBABLY BEING INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING NORTHWEST ON A FORECAST
RECURVATURE PATH THAT IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ALMOST ALL THE
MODELS. LARSON

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL   13/2100Z 32.6N 153.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT   14/0600Z 33.7N 155.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT   14/1800Z 35.4N 158.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT   15/0600Z 37.7N 161.4W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT   15/1800Z 40.0N 163.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

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