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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number  32
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784
WTPZ44 KNHC 071418
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 07 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKENING GUILLERMO.  THE
DVORAK T NUMBERS VARY FROM 3.5 AT AFGWC TO 4.5 AT SAB...BUT THE
TECHNIQUE HOLDS THE CURRENT INTENSITY HIGHER AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR
AS GUILLERMO MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.

THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD MOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12.  CURRENT
FORECAST UPDATES THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE MID LAYER BAM.  THIS IS FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS AND UKMET...BUT
SLOWER THAN THE GFDL.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     07/1500Z 17.1N 132.6W    80 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 17.7N 134.4W    70 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 18.4N 136.9W    60 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 19.3N 139.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 20.3N 141.9W    40 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 22.5N 147.0W    30 KTS

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