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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 055
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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227
WTPN31 PGTW 160300
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 055
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- 13.5N9 146.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N9 146.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 13.6N0 144.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 13.7N1 142.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 13.7N1 140.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 13.7N1 138.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 13.7N1 135.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION: 13.5N9 145.5E5
LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM NEXT GENERATION RADAR
(NEXRAD) AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TYPHOON PAKA (05C)
HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DERIVED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF BETWEEN 115 AND 127 KNOTS AND
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING SPEEDS OF UP TO 117
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 152325Z8 RADAR
REPORT WHICH SHOWS TY PAKA LOCATED 75 NM EAST OF GUAM. TY
PAKA IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS AND
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
ISLAND AT 160900Z6, OR 1900 LOCAL. DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATES A MESOCYCLONE IS ROTATING AROUND THE EYE WALL.
CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY
ESTIMATES, SYNOPTIC DATA FROM SAIPAN (WMO 91232), ROTA
(91221) AND GUAM (91212) AND ALSO CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE
SAME AS TY PAKA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AND TURN MORE
WESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM
IS STEERED BY EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
PAKA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTERWARDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 39 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160751Z),
161500Z3 (DTG 161351Z), 162100Z0 (DTG 161951Z) AND
170300Z1 (DTG 170151Z).//

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