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Date:	Sat, 20 Dec 1997 19:47:00 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm Paka (05c) Warning Nr 075
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

777
WTPN31 PGTW 210300
1. TROPICAL STORM PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 075
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 05C
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- 18.3N2 132.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N2 132.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 18.9N8 131.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 19.1N1 131.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 18.8N7 130.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 18.3N2 129.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 17.2N0 127.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION: 18.6N5 132.1E7
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM PAKA (05C) IS COMPLETELY
EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30NM WEST OF THE
NEAREST CONVECTION AND ALMOST 90NM AWAY FROM THE MAIN
AREA OF CONVECTION. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
202330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. TS PAKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS IT REACTS
TO A WEAKENING IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING
FLOW. PAKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AN FASTER THAN
AVERAGE WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE 72
HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z3
IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 (DTG
210751Z), 211500Z9 (DTG 211351Z), 212100Z6
(DTG 11951Z)AND 220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z).//

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