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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number  11 [150230]
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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530
WTPZ42 KNHC 150230
TCDEP2
HURRICANE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 14 1997

THE EYE REMAINED VISIBLE TO ABOUT 14/2300 SO THE 15/0000 POSITION IS
ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS CERTAIN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KNOTS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVERAGE OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB
AND AFGWC.  THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES BECOMING LESS
SYMMETRIC AND THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS INCORPORATING
STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANTS.  ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY
FORECAST AGREES WITH CLIMATOLOGY...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ENRIQUE WILL
CROSS THE 26 DEGREE SST ISOTHERM WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND
FASTER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD AT 320/13 THEN
PREVIOUSLY.  THERE IS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE
DYNAMIC AND DEEP MEAN LAYER MODELS TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD AND
THEN RECURVING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
GUIDANCE MODELS WHICH HAVE A CLIMATOLOGICAL COMPONENT OR ARE DRIVEN
BY MID TO SHALLOW LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TEND TO MOVE THE SYSTEM
MORE WESTWARD IN THE LATTER PERIODS.  WE HAVE CHOSEN A
MIDDLE...NORTHWESTERLY COURSE...BELIEVING THAT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
IT TURN MORE WESTWARD RATHER THAN EASTWARD.

GROSS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     15/0300Z 16.9N 126.0W    90 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.4N 127.3W    85 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.9N 129.1W    80 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.4N 131.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.7N 132.6W    60 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 24.4N 134.8W    45 KTS

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