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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 037
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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782
WTPN31 PGTW 111500
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- 6.9N5 167.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 6.9N5 167.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 7.1N8 166.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 7.4N1 165.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 7.6N3 163.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 7.7N4 160.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 8.4N2 155.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION: 7.0N7 167.7E1
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
111300Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS AN 11NM
CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND AN 111200Z5 DOPPLER RADAR REPORT
FROM KWAJALEIN (WMO 91366). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TY PAKA HAS BECOME
MORE INTENSE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS INDICATED BY
COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS PAKA
TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN THE 24 AND 48 HOUR PERIOD THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTERLY AS A MID
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND TY PAKA
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY FLOW. TY PAKA IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT THE 36 HOUR
PERIOD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTERWARDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z),120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z), 120900Z2
(DTG 120751Z) AND 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z).//

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