

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.5/8.8.5) with SMTP id VAA120456;
Sun, 17 Aug 1997 21:33:49 -0500
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 6027680 for
[email-masked]; Sun, 17 Aug 1997 21:32:22 +1900
Received: from twister.lib.siu.edu (twister.lib.siu.edu [131.230.72.8]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.5/8.8.5) with ESMTP id VAA110598 for
<[email-masked]>; Sun, 17 Aug 1997 21:30:06 -0500
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by twister.lib.siu.edu (8.8.6/8.8.6) id VAA13447
for [email-masked]; Sun, 17 Aug 1997 21:29:52 -0500 (CDT)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Sun, 17 Aug 1997 21:32:22 +1900
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number   3
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
X-UIDL: b80697237bf55cd91bce57981d3651b2
X-Mozilla-Status: 0001
Content-Length: 1851
Status: OR

643
WTPZ41 KNHC 180230
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 1997

LAST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SHEAR PATTERN WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION.  TWO OUT OF THREE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE SAYING
IGNACIO IS CURRENTLY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...BUT WE WILL HOLD IT UP
AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ONE MORE TIME...IN CASE THE
CENTER IS FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION THAN WE ALL
THINK.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR IGNACIO AS IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER
WATERS.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS COLLAPSING ALREADY...AND IT IS
LIKELY THAT ONLY A SWIRL IN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH WE SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING LATER IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/11.  CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW LAYER
BAM GUIDANCE.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     18/0300Z 22.7N 120.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 24.1N 121.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 26.4N 122.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 28.9N 123.4W    25 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 31.5N 123.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     21/0000Z DISSIPATED

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.