

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.5/8.8.5) with SMTP id OAA53746;
Fri, 12 Dec 1997 14:22:38 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 7296099 for
[email-masked]; Fri, 12 Dec 1997 14:21:05 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.5/8.8.5) with ESMTP id OAA34186 for
<[email-masked]>; Fri, 12 Dec 1997 14:21:03 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id OAA00507
for [email-masked]; Fri, 12 Dec 1997 14:20:59 -0600 (CST)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Fri, 12 Dec 1997 14:20:59 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 042
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
X-UIDL: 8599b2bde29f55bcb4a7d439d244645b
Status: RO
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001

458
WTPN31 PGTW 122100
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- 8.4N2 164.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N2 164.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 8.9N7 162.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 9.4N3 159.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 10.1N2 157.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 10.9N0 154.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 12.5N8 149.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION: 8.5N3 163.3E3
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TYPHOON PAKA
(05C) HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
AS IT CONTINUES TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY REFLECTS A
SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115
KNOTS. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS SIMILAR AS TY PAKA
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST AND PAST A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION HAS
MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTH AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW PAKA TO TRACK
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TY PAKA IS
STILL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT REMAINS IN AN AREA
WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR PERIODS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z), 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z), 131500Z0
(DTG 131351Z) AND 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.