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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 066
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
X-UIDL: 1c0da1f9937d4fddc14d4eee130c6543
Status: RO
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637
WTPN31 PGTW 182100
1. SUPER TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 066
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- 15.2N8 137.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG6387 UNCLAS
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N8 137.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 15.5N1 135.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 15.7N3 133.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG6387 UNCLAS
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 15.8N4 132.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 15.9N5 130.7E1

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG6387 UNCLAS
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 16.0N7 128.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION: 15.3N9 136.7E7
SUPER TYPHOON PAKA (05C) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 181730Z0
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUPER TYPHOON PAKA

PAGE 06 RUHPSGG6387 UNCLAS
(05C) APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING MORE STEADILY NOW AS
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CLOUD
SHIELD SHRINKING AND BECOMING ELONGATED DUE TO SOME
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO REFLECT A MORE DISTINCT
WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL
THE 72 HOUR POSITION WHEN SUPER TYPHOON PAKA (05C) STARTS
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 28 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG 190151Z7),
190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3), 191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0) AND
192100Z3 (191951Z6).//
BT
#6387

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