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Date:	Mon, 27 Jan 1997 14:01:39 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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Status: OR

880
WTXS31 PGTW 272100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- 11.6S8 91.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 91.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 10.7S8 91.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 10.6S7 90.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 10.8S9 89.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 11.0S2 88.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION 11.4S6   91.2E2
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 (DTG 280753Z5) AND 282100Z3
(DTG 281953Z8). TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS ARE BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF 271432Z AND 271730Z INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD
THE WEST WITHIN 24 HOURS AS ITS STEERING FLOW CHANGES
ONCE AGAIN.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
RELAXES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18
FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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