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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm Paka (05c) Warning Nr 026
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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124
WTPN31 PGTW 082100
1. TROPICAL STORM PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- 7.4N1 175.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N1 175.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 7.4N1 173.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 7.6N3 171.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 7.7N4 168.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 7.8N5 165.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 8.3N1 159.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION: 7.3N0 174.9E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAKA (O5A) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE WEST AT 9 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 081107Z7 SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A SATELLITE
DERIVED INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA OF
40 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TS PAKA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT IS STEERED BY LOW TO MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. THE NAVY=S GLOBAL PREDICTION MODEL
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN AN AREA WITH LITTLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER 24
HOURS IT IS EXPECTED THAT PAKA WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE
WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z), 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z),091500Z5
(091351Z) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z).//

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