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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number  24 [051428]
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004
WTPZ44 KNHC 051428
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 1997

THE EYE REMAINS VERY DISTINCT...AND ALTHOUGH THE SIZE OF THE COLDEST
TOPS IN THE SURROUNDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT FROM YESTERDAY...THE DVORAK OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE
HOVERING AROUND 7.0...AND HAVE BEEN FOR OVER 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE
...INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 140 KNOTS...160 MPH...KEEPING GUILLERMO
A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED...BUT GUILLERMO
WILL STILL REMAIN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ON OUR TRACK...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER
COOLER THAN 26C NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AT WHICH TIME
SOME SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14.  OUR TRACK SHOWS A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN
RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  OUR TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS MODEL AND THE SLOWER AVIATION
MODEL.  IF THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS MORE
THAN IS FORECAST...GUILLERMO WILL MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR TRACK AND
OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FASTER WEAKENING.
IF THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS STRONGER THAN
FORECAST...GUILLERMO WILL TRACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST OVER SOMEWHAT
WARMER WATER WHICH WOULD RESULT IS A SLOWER RATE OF DECAY THAN
FORECAST.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     05/1500Z 14.5N 121.6W   140 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.7N 123.7W   135 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 15.2N 126.4W   130 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 15.8N 129.0W   120 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 16.6N 131.6W   110 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N 136.5W    95 KTS

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