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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  18 [182034]
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831
WTPZ43 KNHC 182034
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 1997

THE INTENSITY OF FELICIA HAS HELD STEADY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH DVORAK INTENSITY T NUMBER ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.5 TO
6.0. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 100 KTS AND LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
REMAIN FAVORABLE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AS
INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE AVIATION MODEL FORECAST.
AFTER 24 HOURS...THE INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE AS THE STORM
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.

FELICIA SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG ITS WEST-NORTHWEST PATH DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE...SO THE PREDICTED TRACK IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DEMARIA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     18/2100Z 15.5N 124.6W   100 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N 126.5W   100 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 16.4N 128.9W    95 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 16.9N 131.2W    85 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.3N 133.8W    75 KTS
72HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 138.8W    50 KTS

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