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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number  20 [041428]
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096
WTPZ44 KNHC 041428
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 04 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A VERY COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  DVORAK OBJECTIVE T
NUMBERS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 FOR OVER 6 HOURS.  THIS IS NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS 24 HOURS AGO AND WE THINK THAT THE PEAK INTENSITY
LIKELY OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING WHEN GUILLERMO HAD THE VERY SMALL
EYE.  THE CYCLONE IS OVER 28 TO 29C WATER AND WILL MOVE OVER 25 TO
26C WATER BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  SATELLITE ANIMATION
SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WEST OF ABOUT 130W...BUT THE
AVIATION MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IN THIS AREA SHOULD DIMINISH
BY THE TIME GUILLERMO GETS THERE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES
TO BE IMPRESSIVE AND WE ARE FORECASTING A STRONG HURRICANE FOR
ANOTHER TWO DAYS...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OCCURRING
LATE IN THIS PERIOD AS GUILLERMO MOVES OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER.

CURRENT MOTION IS 275/12.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL ALLOW THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION TO
CONTINUE.  THIS TRACK UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAVY NOGAPS AND THE NWS AVIATION MODEL.  THE
NOGAPS IS FASTER.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     04/1500Z 14.2N 115.7W   130 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.4N 117.6W   130 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 14.8N 120.1W   125 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 15.2N 122.6W   120 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 15.8N 125.2W   115 KTS
72HR VT     07/1200Z 17.0N 130.5W   100 KTS

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