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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number  19
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021
WTPZ45 KNHC 141446
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 14 1997

IT IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT TO SAY THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY
IDENTIFY THE CENTER OF HILDA ON IR PICTURES.  TAFB AND SAB PROVIDED
POSITIONS ABOUT 245 NM APART.  MY ESTIMATE IS CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO
THE ONE FROM TAFB AND ROUGHLY ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  THAT POSITION IMPLIES A FASTER MOTION THAN 6 HOURS
AGO...ABOUT 285/14 KT.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK AND SHOULD CONTINUE THAT WAY FOR THE
REASONS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHEAR...A LITTLE COOLER
WATERS...DISRUPTED INFLOW.  ONLY ONE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER AT THIS TIME.

THE FUTURE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESEMBLE THE FORECAST OF THE
SHALLOW-LAYER BAM.  DISSIPATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...ALTHOUGH IF ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CHANGE...A WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD PERSIST GIVEN THE MARGINAL SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK.  A TRACK FORECAST IS SHOWN THROUGH 72 HOURS TO COVER THAT
POSSIBILITY.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     14/1500Z 16.2N 128.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.8N 130.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 17.8N 133.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 18.8N 136.0W    25 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.8N 138.9W    25 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N 142.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING

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