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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NC: Tropical Depression Four-c Forecast/advisory Number 3
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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966
WTPA24 PHNL 312100 COR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI   CP0497
2100Z FRI OCT 31 1997

...CORRECTED TO REMOVE TEST FROM HEADER...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C APPEARS TO BE SHEARING AND
WEAKENING...

LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C HAS ACTUALLY
MOVED OUT FROM BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CIRRUS SHIELD THIS MORNING
AND
THE CENTER HAS THUS BEEN RELOCATED FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NO LONGER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGHER LEVEL OUTFLOW SHIELD...THE SYSTEM IS APPARANTLY WEAKER
THAN SIX HOURS AGO...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT AND
GUSTS
TO 30 KT AT PRESENT. THE PROGNOSIS IS FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-
C TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTERLY DIRECTION AND
DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW
AND MEDIUM MODELS. THE AVIATION MODEL TRACKS THE SYSTEM ON A
CURVING
NORTHWARD TRACK...BUT WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW OFF-CENTERED
FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...THIS APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 171.5W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  30 KT

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 171.5W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 170.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.8N 174.2W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  40 KT

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.1N 177.4W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  50 KT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 171.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

FARRELL

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