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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number  11 [020835]
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431
WTPZ44 KNHC 020835
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 1997

POSITION ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TONIGHT
AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...ANOTHER POSSIBLE CENTER IS OCCASIONALLY APPARENT ON IR
IMAGERY AS A WARM SPOT ABOUT 45 NM TO THE NORTH.  THAT SPOT IS ALSO
DETECTED IN SSM/I DATA...AND THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTER
USED THAT LOCATION FOR THEIR CENTER FIX.  I HAVE OFFSET THE TRACK A
LITTLE NORTHWARD FROM 6 HOURS AGO...TO NEAR THE WARM SPOT.  INITIAL
MOTION IS 280/11 KT.

NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK IS MADE.  THE LARGE HIGH TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND THE FLOW AROUND THE S AND SW
SIDE SHOULD STEER GUILLERMO TOWARD THE W TO WNW.  THE GFDL SHOWS
MORE DECELERATION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

ALL THREE CLASSIFICATION SITES HAVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF
4.5...SUPPORTING 75 KT AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  IF THE WARM SPOT
TURNS OUT TO BE AN EYE THEN THE ASSOCIATED OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
SUGGEST THAT GUILLERMO COULD BE STRONGER.  THE HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING OVER WARM WATERS AND THROUGH AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     02/0900Z 13.5N 105.8W    75 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.9N 107.5W    85 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 14.3N 109.4W    95 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.9N 111.4W   100 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.3N 113.4W   100 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N 116.5W   100 KTS

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