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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number  10 [020227]
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434
WTPZ44 KNHC 020227
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 1997

THE INTENSITY REMAINED ABOUT STEADY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT A
CONCENTRATION OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.  WITH SHEAR AND SST CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE...THE FORECAST IS FOR INTENSIFICATION FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS
IN TWO DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10.  WITH A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE MODEL SPREAD AND IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     02/0300Z 12.9N 104.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.0N 105.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 13.2N 107.9W    75 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 13.8N 109.8W    85 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 14.4N 111.8W    90 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 115.5W    90 KTS

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