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Date:	Wed, 31 Dec 1997 07:38:40 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

716
WTXS32 PGTW 311500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- 16.3S0 98.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 98.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 16.2S9 96.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 16.2S9 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION 16.3S0 98.0E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST
AT 8 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 311130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, ANIMATION SHOWS TC 09S IS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT
WIND SHEAR FROM MOSTLY THE NORTH AND CONVECTION REMAINS
MINIMAL. HOWEVER, DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS CONVECTION HAS
BECOME MORE CENTRALLY LOCATED TOWARDS THE EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40NM
FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT IS STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
AND INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TC 09S.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 13 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0).//

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