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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  20 [190818]
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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238
WTPZ43 KNHC 190818
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 1997

DVORAK INTENSITY T-NUMBER ESTIMATES ARE NOW 6.0 SO WE ARE INCREASING
THE INTENSITY OF FILICIA TO 110 KNOTS.  THE INNERMOST RING OF CLOUD
TOPS HAS COOLED AGAIN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS SO THE 6.0 T-NUMBERS
APPEAR QUITE SOLID.  FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THOUGH.  THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE STORM
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AFTER CROSSING THE ESTIMATED POSITION OF
THE 26C SST ISOTHERM JUST BEFORE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE HEADING OF FELICIA IS 275/12...SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY AND SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED MORE WESTERLY
AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND THE INITIAL...MORE
WESTERLY HEADING.  THE SLOWING OF THE TRACK IS IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE LOWER LEVEL STEERING THE CYCLONE WILL EXPERIENCE WHEN DEEP
CONVECTION DIMINISHES.

NCEP SUFFERED A MAJOR LIGHTENING STRIKE KNOCKING OUT THE CRAY3...THE
MAIN COMPUTER WHICH PRODUCES THE AVIATION RUN OF THE MRF MODEL ON
WHICH MOST OF OUR GUIDANCE IS BASED.  THE GUIDANCE USED FOR THIS
PACKAGE WAS BASED ON YESTERDAYS 18Z AVIATION RUN.  CRAY3 MAYBE DOWN
UNTIL LATER TODAY...LIMITING NHC OBJECTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE
GUIDANCE.

GROSS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     19/0900Z 15.7N 127.3W   110 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 15.9N 129.2W   100 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.2N 131.6W    90 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 133.7W    80 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 16.9N 135.9W    70 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 17.6N 140.4W    45 KTS

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