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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number   5
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274
WTPZ42 KNHC 262040
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 1997

VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT JIMENA HAS DEVELOPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH BANDING FEATURES THAT YIELD A DVORAK T-NUMBER
NEAR 3.5...I.E. A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE STRENGTHENING TREND WILL BE REVERSED BY INCREASED VERTICAL
SHEAR.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 290/6.  AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...THE AVN MODEL
CONTINUES TO IMPROPERLY INITIALIZE A STRONG MID- TO LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONE ABOUT 10 DEG TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JIMENA.  THIS SPURIOUS
FEATURE IS LIKELY CREATING AN ERRONEOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS ALSO TRUE FOR THE GFDL MODEL WHICH USES
THE AVN TO SPECIFY THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SO WE
SHOULD USE ALL GUIDANCE RELATED TO THE AVN MODEL WITH SOME CAUTION.
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF OUR
GUIDANCE SUITE...AND CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS MODEL.  THE LATTER MODEL
DOES NOT SHOW THE FALSE VORTEX IN ITS INITIAL STATE.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     26/2100Z 12.1N 136.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 12.4N 136.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 12.9N 138.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 13.5N 139.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 14.2N 141.2W    65 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 16.0N 145.0W    60 KTS

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