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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm Mort (31w) Warning Nr 003
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
X-UIDL: 7a24bdb83cb51a96331c335ae5de7094
Status: U
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030
WTPN31 PGTW 110900
1. TROPICAL STORM MORT (31W) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- 11.9N1 138.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N1 138.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 12.3N6 137.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.8N1 136.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 13.2N6 134.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 13.5N9 133.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 13.8N2 130.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION 12.0N3  138.2E4
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO
TROPICAL STORM MORT (31W). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS). THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED
AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED WITH
CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80C. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN, WE HAVE INCREASED THE
INTENSITY TREND TO SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN NORMAL WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT
THIS LATITUDE. THERE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFDN MODEL AND OTHER DYNAMIC MODEL FORECASTS
AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. OUR FORECAST REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE
OF OUR OBJECTIVE AIDS ENVELOPE AND WE HAVE USED.
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE TRACK SPEED WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER THAN EITHER THE JGSM OR JTYM MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2), 112100Z5 (DTG
111951Z8), 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0) AND 120900Z2 (DTG
120751Z6).//

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