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Date:	Tue, 28 Jan 1997 20:34:58 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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Status: OR

099
WTXS32 PGTW 290300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- 26.2S0 35.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S0 35.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 26.5S3 35.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 26.8S6 34.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 27.1S0 34.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 27.5S4 33.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 26.3S1   35.5E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. TC 20S HAS
REINTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH LAND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG
291355Z5) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300155Z4). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 29/0000Z1 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) (WTXS33 PGTW 282100) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

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