

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.5/8.8.5) with SMTP id OAA19626;
Thu, 30 Oct 1997 14:50:43 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 6822774 for
[email-masked]; Thu, 30 Oct 1997 14:50:39 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.5/8.8.5) with ESMTP id OAA20370 for
<[email-masked]>; Thu, 30 Oct 1997 14:50:36 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id OAA25755
for [email-masked]; Thu, 30 Oct 1997 14:50:35 -0600 (CST)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Thu, 30 Oct 1997 14:50:35 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 13
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
X-UIDL: a3ea96cf9d5eac7fc9d94f428872d68a
Status: RO
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001

223
WTPN31 PGTW 302100
1. TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 13
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- 8.6N4 158.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

PAGE 03 RUHGSGG1760 UNCLAS
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N4 158.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 9.3N2 155.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 10.1N2 153.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

PAGE 04 RUHGSGG1760 UNCLAS
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 11.1N3 150.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

PAGE 05 RUHGSGG1760 UNCLAS
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 12.2N5 148.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 14.7N2 143.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 06 RUHGSGG1760 UNCLAS
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION  8.8N6  157.6E9
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS
UNDERGONE RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING WHILE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATING. OUR WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 21 NM RAGGED EYE AND A 301730Z4
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS). WE
EXPECT TYPHOON KEITH TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND
REACH SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH (130 KNOTS) WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS BASED ON THE FAVORABLE INFLOW-OUTFLOW
PATTERN THAT HAS DEVELOPED. THERE IS NO COMPETITION FOR
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WITH KEITH BEING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CIRCULATION IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN. ALSO, MANUAL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AT 301200Z6 INDICATES TYPHOON KEITH'S
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS LINKED UP WITH 3 TUTT CELLS TO
THE NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST, AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH
ARE ACTING AS MASS SINKS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND FOR KEITH TO
MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY WHEN IT TRAVERSES THE

PAGE 07 RUHGSGG1760 UNCLAS
SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN ABOUT 60 HOURS AS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3), 310900Z3 (DTG
310753Z9), 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6) AND 312100Z7 (DTG
311953Z2).//
BT
#1760

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.