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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 9 [161414]
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449
WTPZ43 KNHC 161414
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUL 16 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF FELICIA.  THE
WRINKLE IS THAT THE POSITION IS NOT VERY WELL KNOWN... THEREFORE THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS SUBJECT TO SOME NOISE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
CENTER IS ASSUMED TO BE LOCATED RELATIVE TO THE CLOUDS.  WE EXPECT
TO CORRECT THE INITIAL POSITION...AND PERHAPS THE INTENSITY...ON THE
NEXT ADVISORY AFTER WE HAVE DAYLIGHT SATELLITE PICTURES.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...BRINGING
FELICIA TO A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AND TOPPING OFF IN 48 HOURS.

THE TRACK IS HELD PRETTY MUCH AS BEFORE...BUT WE ARE EDGING IT
SOMEWHAT SOUTH TO ALLOW FOR WHAT MAY HAVE BEEN A NEW CENTER
FORMATION OVERNIGHT...IT MAY ALSO JUST BE A POOR CENTER LOCATION
WHICH WILL BE NEGATED ONCE WE SEE DAYLIGHT SATELLITE DATA.  THE
AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A LOW TO MID LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FELICIA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO CONTINUE.

JARRELL

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     16/1500Z 12.4N 115.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 12.5N 116.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 12.8N 118.2W    70 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 13.3N 120.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 13.8N 121.7W    75 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 15.0N 125.8W    70 KTS

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