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Date:	Wed, 29 Jan 1997 19:33:46 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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Status: OR

777
WTXS32 PGTW 300300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- 27.3S2 37.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S2 37.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 27.9S8 37.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 28.5S5 37.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 29.1S2 38.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 29.7S8 39.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION 27.5S4   37.5E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 2OS (GRETELLE) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
GAINS LATITUDE AND MOVES INTO A STRONGER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON
A 290740Z SCATTEROMETER PASS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9
(DTG 301355Z7) AND 310300Z7 (DTG 310155Z5). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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