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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number  16 [031426]
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
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006
WTPZ44 KNHC 031426
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLASSIC EYE PATTERN...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD SURROUNDING TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT...
THE SURROUNDING TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN COLDER THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  THE
NOAA HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION IS CONDUCTING A VORTEX MOTION
EXPERIMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CORE DATA WILL LIKELY NOT BE
RECEIVED AT NHC UNTIL AROUND 2100Z.

DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM AFGWC...SAB...AND
TAFB.  SINCE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN AT THIS
TIME...INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 135 KNOTS...155 MPH...WHICH
IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.  THIS MAKES GUILLERMO A
BORDERLINE CAT 4/CAT 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT...WHERE SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR IS BEING ENCOUNTERED.
OBVIOUSLY THIS SHEAR HAS NOT HINDERED THE DEEPENING PROCESS SO FAR.
THE HURRICANE IS OVER 29C WATER AT THE PRESENT TIME AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER 27C WATER AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A RESULT OF EYEWALL
CYCLES...AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HIGH
INTENSITY.  QUILLERMO HAS LIKELY PEAKED...AND THE FORECAST INDICATES
SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...QUILLERMO IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 3 DAYS OR SO.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/11.  TRACK FORECAST IS
STRAIGHTFORWARD...THANKS TO A PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.  CURRENT TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH GFDL...UKMET...AND BAM GUIDANCE.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     03/1500Z 13.7N 110.8W   135 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 13.8N 112.5W   135 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 14.0N 114.7W   130 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 14.3N 116.7W   125 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z 14.7N 118.8W   120 KTS
72HR VT     06/1200Z 15.5N 123.0W   110 KTS

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