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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Ten-e Discussion Number   8
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972
WTPZ45 KNHC 112031
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 11 1997

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE INTENSITY-WISE.
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER... THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
SHIFOR.. SHIPS.. AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING FASTER THAN MY PREVIOUS ESTIMATES OR 295/07. ALL THE GUIDANCE
MODELS... EXCEPT THE AVIATION... ARE IN AGREEMENT IN A WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION AND ONLY DIFFER IN SPEED OF MOTION. THE AVIATION
MODEL MOVES THE SYSTEM IN A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.  IN THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST THE TRACK SPEED SLOWLY INCREASES WITH TIME.

JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     11/2100Z 13.2N 117.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 13.6N 118.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.5N 119.8W    35 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 15.2N 121.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 16.1N 123.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 17.6N 128.0W    45 KTS

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