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Date:	Fri, 4 Dec 1998 02:47:27 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

429
WTXS31 PGTW 040900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 18.5S4 116.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 116.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 19.3S3 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 20.8S0 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 22.5S9 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 23.6S1 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 25.3S0 111.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6  116.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION
OF 040640Z4 RADAR IMAGERY FROM WMO NUMBER 94308 (DAMPIER, AUSTRALIA)
AND ANALYSIS OF 04530Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. RADAR IMAGERY
STILL INDICATES THE THE PRESENCE OF A 13NM DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE EYE FEATURE IS
NO LONGER DISCERNABLE DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUD COVER. WITH STRONGER WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS PEAKED AND WILL BEGIN WEAKENING SOON DUE TO THE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION SPEEDS, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY PHILOSOPHY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWPIO30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4), 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0), 050300Z8 (DTG
050151Z2) AND 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8).//

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