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Date:	Sun, 1 Feb 1998 12:16:36 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

671
ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/011800Z/021800Z FEB 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GUAM/011353ZJAN98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1)  AT 011200Z4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WAS LOCATED
AT 20.4S6 122.1E6, MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NUMBER 21 (WTXS32 PGTW 011500))
AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2)  NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18S9 105E6 HAS
REMAINED
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 10 HOURS. ANIMTED INFRARED SATELLITE I
MAGERY
SHOWED AN AREA OF CONVECTION GENERATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BUT
HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS POOR IN ALL QUADRANTS.  MAXIM
UM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIG
NIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16S7 36E9 IS NO
W LOCATED
NEAR 20S2 36E9. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEE
P
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS CE
NTRALLY
LOCATED OVER THE PAST 10 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, 011301Z6 MICROWAVE IMAG
ERY
INDICATED AN AREA OF CONVECTION WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULA
TION.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS WELL ORGANIZED, IT HAS SHOWN LITTLE TO NO DEVE
LOPMENT AS
IT TRACKED OVER WATER. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTH
ER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 KNOTS WIT
H GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.  TH
E POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 65E1 HAS R
EMAINED
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 10 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED DISORGANIZ
ED.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOW ALOFT IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUANDRANTS. A LOW-LEVEL CE
NTER IS NOT
DISCERNIBLE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATE
D TO BE 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATE
D TO BE
1007 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: HILDEBRAND/HATFIELD/JONES//

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