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Date:	Sun, 19 Apr 1998 14:05:25 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 34s Warning Nr 003
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

835
WTXS31 PGTW 191500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- 10.6S7 73.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S7 73.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 10.8S9 71.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 11.4S6 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 11.9S1 68.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 12.6S9 66.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 13.7S1 62.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION 10.6S7   73.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST AT 11 KNOTS.
POSITION IS BASED ON BOTH INFRARED AND SPECIAL MICROWAVE IMAGERY
OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 34S IS CURRENTLY
UNDER MODERATE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WHICH IS
TEMPORARILY SLOWING ITS INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS
INDICATE THAT CONTINUED MOTION TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHILE MAXIMUM WINDS INTENSIFY TO
NEAR 75 KNOTS. CURRENT WIND RADII ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6), 200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9), 200900Z1 (DTG
200751Z5) AND 201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
35S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUEOMCA11391091859

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