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Date:	Thu, 22 Jan 1998 09:19:08 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s Warning Nr 011a
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

688
WTXS31 PGTW 221500 COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNING NR 011A
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z7 --- 26.6S4 44.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S4 44.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 27.1S0 46.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 27.4S3 48.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 27.4S3 51.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION 26.7S5   44.7E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 220802Z4
INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING.
THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. DISSIPATION OVER IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z7 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT
230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231353Z7).
JUSTIFICATION
FOR CORRECTION: DTG ON NEXT WARNINGS REMARK.//

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