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Date:	Fri, 30 Jan 1998 20:44:35 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

980
WTXS32 PGTW 310300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- 16.6S3 123.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG1448 UNCLASS
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 123.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.2S0 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.8S6 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG1448 UNCLASS
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.6S5 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 19.4S4 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG1448 UNCLASS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 21.1S4 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION 16.8S5  123.2E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.  WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 302330Z1
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING.  THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG1448 UNCLASS
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE.  AFTER 48 HOURS THIS SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE COASTLINE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 14 FEET.  NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9), 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6),
312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0).  REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.//
BT
#1448

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