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Date:	Fri, 22 May 1998 23:54:18 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

527
ABIO10 PGTW 230500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/230500Z/231800Z MAY 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1
90E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9S9 89E7.  ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS SHOW THAT THIS
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FAIR.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
LESSENED DIRECTLY OVER THIS AREA OF CONVECTION, BUT IT REMAINS
MODERATE JUST TO ITS SOUTH.  OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS, CLOUD TOPS
HAVE EXPERIENCED SOME WARMING.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5S5
50E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5S5 52E7.  ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  A 221938Z5 SCATTEROMETER
PASS SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGHING.  UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND BEGINNING TO
DISPLAY SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADE SUSPECT AREA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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