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Date:	Sun, 22 Nov 1998 08:19:54 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Immediate Delivery Req To Amconsul Calcutta And
Amembassy Dhaka
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

035
WTIO31 PGTW 221500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z7 --- NEAR 20.6N8 88.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 120 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 20.6N8 88.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 21.4N7 88.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 22.0N4 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 22.4N8 88.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.8N0 88.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 6 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
VISIBLE AND INFRARED ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON A 221130Z9 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45
KNOTS, BUT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B CONTINUES TO BE STEERED
BY THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST. HOWEVER, AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE NORTH,
IT SHOULD COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH. HENCE, THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES A WESTERLY TURN AFTER
THE 12 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 07B HAS SHEARED
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IMPLIED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS
COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION. SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION, TC 07B IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING OVER WATER.
TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07B SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER UNTIL MAKING
LANDFALL SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA. AT THAT POINT, THE ALREADY
WEAKENED TC 07B WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z7 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z8
(DTG 230153Z4) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231353Z7).//

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