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Date:	Mon, 13 Apr 1998 08:46:05 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In South Indian Ocean
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

746
WTXS31 PGTW 131500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- 14.6S1 77.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 77.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 14.6S1 77.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 14.8S3 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 15.4S0 78.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 16.1S8 78.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION 14.6S1   77.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 131130Z9
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S
(GEMMA) CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER WEAK STEERING
FLOW, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGHOU
T
THE 12 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AFTER THAT TIME, TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S
(GEMMA) SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE
700 MB AND 850 MB RIDGE REBUILDS SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER
THE 36 HOUR POSITION, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE
32S=S (GEMMA) CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM ITS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

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