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Date:	Mon, 16 Feb 1998 02:20:13 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: This Warning Supersedes And Cancels Navpacmetoccen West
Gu
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

079
WTXS32 PGTW 160900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU
160553Z FEB 98
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 160600)
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- 21.5S8 041.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 41.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 22.5S9 041.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 23.6S1 041.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 24.8S4 041.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 26.1S9 042.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION 21.8S1  041.5E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 160601Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS SWIFTLY ORGANIZED FROM A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS CENTRAL
DEEP CONVECTION AND FULLY DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE ENVIRON-
MENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. AFTER 36 HOURS TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S IS ANTICIPATED TO
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGING TO THIS
SYSTEM=S SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0
(DTG 161953Z5) AND 170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3). THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 160553Z FEB 98
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 160600). REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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