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Date:	Thu, 23 Jul 1998 15:28:30 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

730
WTXS31 PGTW 232100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- 9.6S5 076.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S5 076.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 9.3S2 075.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 9.3S2 074.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 9.3S2 072.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 9.4S3 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION  9.5S4   076.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S IS QUASISTATIONARY. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A 231558Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS. OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS, DEEP AND MID-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS SHEARED
OFF. THIS, ALONG WITH A LOSS OF CIRCULATION ORGANIZATION HAS MADE
THE SYSTEM DIFFICULT TO POSITION. HOWEVER, OVER THE LAST TWO
HOURS, SOME MID-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS REAPPEARED NEAR THE CENTER.
TC 01S IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING. WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. UPPERLEVEL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AND REMAIN A FAIRLY CONSTANT
FACTOR THROUGH 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WARNING CRITERIA THROUGH THE LAST 24 TO
36 HOURS, THE FORECAST IS EXTENDED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO DIEGO
GARCIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 (DTG 240151Z3), 240900Z5 (DTG
240751Z9), 241500Z2 (DTG 241351Z6) AND 242100Z9 (DTG
241951Z2).//

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