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Date:	Sat, 12 Dec 1998 01:54:34 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

136
WTXS32 PGTW 120900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 17.8S6 124.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 124.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 18.4S3 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.0S0 122.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 19.5S5 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 20.4S6 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9  124.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WESTWARD COMPONENT IS DUE TO INFLUENCE
BY A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HAVING BEEN OVER LAND FOR
AWHILE, THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM
IS MAINTAINING ITS LOW- AND MID-LEVEL ORGANIZATION AS WELL AS SOME
CENTRAL CONVECTION. DUE TO THIS, IN ADDITION TO IT APPROACHING THE
COASTLINE, THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE FULL 48 HOURS, EVEN THOUGH THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO
CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 120530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 (DTG
121953Z1) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9).//

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