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Date:	Sun, 13 Dec 1998 13:54:06 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

071
WTXS32 PGTW 132100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 19.2S2 121.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 121.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 19.6S6 120.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 20.0S2 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 20.7S9 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.4S7 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3  121.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 131730Z5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(THELMA) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION BUT HAS
RETAINED ITS ORGANIZATION. THE  SYSTEM HAS NOW MOVED OVER WATER AND
IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY INTENSIFY UNTIL IT MOVES BACK OVER LAND NEAR
THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TRACK POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0) AND
142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3).//

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