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Date:	Fri, 25 Dec 1998 00:23:09 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 250300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 99.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 99.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 17.1S9 98.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 17.5S3 98.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 17.9S7 97.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.0S9 96.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3   99.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA. A
MICROWAVE SCATTEROMETER PASS (241624Z9) INDICATED WINDS OF 35KTS
AROUND THE CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE ANIMATION
AND UW-CIMSS WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE TC 10S IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE DEEPER
CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD AND TURN MORE WESTWARD BY THE 36 HOUR
POSITION AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE STEERING.
TC 1OS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT REMAINS IN A MODERATE
WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WIND RADII ARE OMITTED
UNTIL THE STORM INTENSITY BECOMES GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 240421Z
DEC 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 240430). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 (DTG 251351Z7) AND 260300Z1 (DTG 260151Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  09P (CORA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCA04533590618

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