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Date:	Sat, 5 Dec 1998 01:43:36 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (billy) Warning Nr 011
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

099
WTXS31 PGTW 050900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 19.5S5 115.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 19.5S5 115.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.9S9 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.6S8 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.1S4 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.8S1 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 23.2S7 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 115.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A
050530Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE, AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED UPON A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS BUT TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT THE INCREASED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION OF
TC 05S (BILLY) HAS BEEN LOCATED FURTHER WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 05S (BILLY) CONTINUES TO BE UNDER
MODERATE
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED
AWAY
TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) SHOULD COUNTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA DUE TO
THE
INCREASED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TC 05S (BILLY)
SHOULD DISSIPATE EVEN MORE RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT
050600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5),
052100Z8
(DTG 051951Z1), 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3) AND 060900Z5 (DTG
060751Z9).//
BT
#0001

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