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Status: O

912
WTIO21 PGTW 080030

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG2870 UNCLAS
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
080029Z OCT 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND
AMCONSUL MADRAS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS OF 12.7N0 67.9E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES
NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
AT 071800Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.3N6 68.7E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THIS AREA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. 071317Z9 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
071800Z6 SHIP REPORTS CONFIRM THE POSITION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION. INFRARED SATELLITE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS. THE

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG2870 UNCLAS
CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED TOWARDS THE WEST FOR
THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES OUTFLOW IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 090030Z2.//
BT
#2870

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