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Date:	Fri, 6 Feb 1998 22:26:16 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Gu 061151z Feb 98//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

779
WTXS21 PGTW 070400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 070400Z FEB 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 061151Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 12.7S0 64.2E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070055Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0 63.9E8.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THIS SUPERCEDES REF A. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS FROM 070055Z7 INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM=S CONVECTION
IS STILL A LITTLE DISORGANIZED ALTHOUGH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER COULD STILL BE SEEN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME CYCLONIC TURNING HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD ELEMENTS DURING THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 080400Z2.//

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