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Date:	Sat, 5 Dec 1998 11:46:35 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

210
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/051800Z/061800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/051351Z DEC 98//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/050753Z DEC 98//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 051200Z TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.1S3 115.2E9, MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 051500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 050600Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WAS LOCATED NEAR
9.2S1 130.5E9, MOVING WESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 050900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9 87E5 IS
NOW NEAR 10S1 88E6. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA
OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, BUT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RE-DEVELOP. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FAIR, BUT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS
INCREASED. WITH THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, THIS AREA IS
DOWNGRADED FROM FAIR TO POOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM:
PARSONS/MCCULLOCH/HERRON/PARKER/BALDINGER/JACKSON/JONES//

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