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Date:	Sat, 16 May 1998 16:53:27 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

312
ABIO10 PGTW 161800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z MAY 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10N1
82E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11N2 81E9. 161312Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS AREA IS LOCATED IN A VERY ACTIVE AREA OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WHERE MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS EXIST. OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC IN A LARGE REGION TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WINDS ALOFT HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY, INDICATING VERTICAL WIND SHEER HAS INCREASED
NEAR THIS CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8S8 83E1 HAS REMAINED
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED IN A GENERAL LOCATION. HOWEVER, A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS NOT DISCERNIBLE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. WATER
VAPOR DERIVED WINDS INDICATE SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF THIS AREA OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1006 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15S6 75E2
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: HILDEBRAND/SANCHEZ/BACON//

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