

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id PAA34952;
Wed, 28 Jan 1998 15:23:18 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 7618303 for
[email-masked]; Wed, 28 Jan 1998 15:23:00 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id PAA15712 for
<[email-masked]>; Wed, 28 Jan 1998 15:22:57 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id PAA07668
for [email-masked]; Wed, 28 Jan 1998 15:22:54 -0600 (CST)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Wed, 28 Jan 1998 15:22:54 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 280253zjan98 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (wtxs22
Pgtw 280300)
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

608
WTXS32 PGTW 282100 COR
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU
280253ZJAN98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 280300)
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 008 REGENERATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- 14.0S5 129.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 129.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 13.7S1 128.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 13.5S9 127.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 13.6S0 126.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 13.8S2 124.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 14.2S7 122.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION 13.9S3 129.2E4
LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WI
TH
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER TH
E
NORTHERN TERRITIORY OF AUSTRALIA AND HAS REGENERATED IN THE JOSEPH
BONAPARTE GULF. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SA
TELLITE
IMAGERY AND 281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS
BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. ANIMATION SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AND IS NOW SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE EAS
TERN
QUADRANT AS WELL AS NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGE
RY
INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
S AN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM TO THE WEST-NORT
HWEST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES THI
S
CONVECTION IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P AND IS NOT INC
LUDED
IN THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII. CURRENTLY, TC 14P IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO
WARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOVEMENT THROUGH
THE 24
HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARDS T
HE WEST
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (L
ES) IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INTERACTION W
ITH LAND
DIMINISHES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 13 FEET. R
EFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. SUBSEQUENT WARNING
S WILL
BE ISSUED AT 6-HOUR INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z4
(DTG 290153Z0), 290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6), 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3) AND
292100Z4
(DTG 291953Z9).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.