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Date:	Fri, 5 Jun 1998 13:58:30 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 03a Warning Nr 006a Amended And
Relocated
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

322
WTIO31 PGTW 051500 AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 006A AMENDED AND RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- 11.8N0 70.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N0 70.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 12.0N3 69.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 12.0N3 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 12.1N4 68.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 12.2N5 68.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 12.6N9 67.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION 11.8N0 70.0E7.
051549Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND 051540Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A IS FARTHER WEST AND MORE INTENSE
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  THE WARNING INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE
BASED ON 151540Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE SYSTEM=S TRACK
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  TC03A IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE 48-HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST.  THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING
TC03A HAS LESSENED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
48-HOUR PERIOD AND MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8
IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1), 060300Z9
(DTG 060151Z3), 060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9) AND 061500Z2
(DTG 061351Z6).//

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