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Date:	Thu, 29 Jan 1998 02:22:39 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

214
WTXS32 PGTW 290900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- 14.4S9 127.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 127.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 14.7S2 126.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 15.0S6 124.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 15.4S0 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 15.8S4 122.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.7S4 119.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION 14.5S0  127.3E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
INTENSITIES AND WIND RADII ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOU
S
FORECAST DUE TO A SLIGHT DIPPING OF THE SYSTEM=S TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT
EARLY LANDFALL. THE EFFECTS OF LAND SHOULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AS IT
COVERS A GREATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WA
VE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3
),
292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9), 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2) AND 300900Z2 (DTG
300753Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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