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Date:	Fri, 30 Jan 1998 14:35:41 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

119
WTXS32 PGTW 302100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- 16.1S8 124.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG0192 UNCLASS
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 124.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 16.6S3 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.2S0 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG0192 UNCLASS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 18.0S9 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 18.8S7 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 20.6S8 116.0E8

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG0192 UNCLASS
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION 16.2S9  123.9E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 301730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35
KNOTS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY OTHER THAN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE FORWARD MOTION
OF THE SYSTEM AND TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY UPWARD
DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. BY THE 72 HOUR POSITION, COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3),
310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9), 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6) AND 312100Z7
(DTG 311953Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG0192 UNCLASS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0192

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