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Date:	Fri, 10 Apr 1998 10:18:54 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gemma) Warning Nr 008 Relocated
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

145
WTXS31 PGTW 101500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 16.3S0 74.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 74.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 17.2S0 74.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.1S0 74.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.1S1 74.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 19.6S6 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 16.5S2   74.2E3.
ANALYSIS OF 101130Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (KGWC AND PGTW)
INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) IS LOCATED FURTHER TO THE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST POSITION. REANALYSIS OF PAST POSITIONS
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS FOR THE
PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS
SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER, A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IS THEN
EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH MOVES ON AND THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO ITS SOUTH.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 101130Z SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS AS ITS CENTRAL CONVECTIVE REGION HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM=S DEVELOPMENT IS EXPEC
TED
TO PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR BECO
MES
INCREASING A FACTOR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18
FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG110151Z9) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2)./
/

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