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Date:	Sun, 15 Mar 1998 08:46:35 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

733
WTXS32 PGTW 151500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- 22.5S9 77.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S9 77.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 23.9S4 77.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 25.2S9 78.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 26.4S2 78.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 28.1S1 80.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION 22.8S2 77.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED 38 NM FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING AS IT
PASSES THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THE
SYSTEM=S SIZE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AS
THE SYSTEM ENTERS INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE 36 AND 48 HOUR
PERIODS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG 160153Z6) AND 161500Z3
(DTG 161353Z9).//

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