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Date:	Wed, 9 Dec 1998 13:52:58 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

846
WTXS32 PGTW 092100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 12.9S2 126.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 126.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.6S0 125.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 14.3S8 124.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 15.1S7 123.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 15.9S5 122.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5  126.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF 091730Z0 SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS PRESENTLY DISPLAYING A
10-NM CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINING
ITS PRESENT INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ITS EYE
FEATURE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT OVER THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWESTWARD AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 091419Z4 SCATTEROMETER PASS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6) AND 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9).//

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