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Date:	Sun, 15 Feb 1998 19:52:55 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

458
WTXS33 PGTW 160300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- 21.0S3 090.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 90.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 21.4S7 087.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 21.9S2 084.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 22.7S1 081.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 23.8S3 079.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION 21.1S4  089.2E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 152330Z4
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ONLY SPORADIC AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
WELL-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. NO CHANGE TO
FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK ROUGHLY WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTH. AFTER
24 HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 18 FEET. REFER
TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG 161355Z1) AND 170300Z1 (DTG
170155Z9).//

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