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Date:	Tue, 24 Feb 1998 12:05:11 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

088
ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/241800Z/251800ZFEB98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
REMAINS NEAR 17.2S0 41.5E0 AND HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
IN THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE
NORTH AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA
PREVIOUSLY NEAR 07S7 71E8 REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY.  ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT BUT LOOSELY
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  NO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, HOWEVER SURFACE SYNOPTIC
REPORTS FROM DIEGO GARCIA (WMO NUMBER 61967) INDICATE A
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF CARPENTERIA NEAR 11S2 137E1.  ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH NO DISTINCT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS DISTURBANCE EXISTS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
AJTWC SENDS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/EMERY/BELCHER//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUHPSGG07360551758

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