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Date:	Tue, 8 Dec 1998 13:40:10 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

151
WTXS32 PGTW 082100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 11.8S0 128.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 128.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 12.1S4 128.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.5S8 127.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.1S5 126.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.7S1 126.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1  128.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF 081730Z9 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS DISPLAYING A 10-NM DIAMETER CLOUD FILLED
EYE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THIS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES
AGAINST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD SIGNATURE AND SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7).//

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