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Date:	Tue, 27 Jan 1998 02:38:46 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southwest Pacific
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

546
WTXS31 PGTW 270900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- 19.0S0 116.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG3671 UNCLAS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 116.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 19.5S5 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG3671 UNCLAS
280600Z6 --- 19.9S9 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 20.2S4 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG3671 UNCLAS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 20.5S7 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 20.6S8 109.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG3671 UNCLAS
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION 19.1S1  116.7E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS IN A REGION OF WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING.  THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 270530Z6 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM DAMPIER (WMO
NUMBER 94308).  THIS SYSTEM HAS A 20 NM WELL-DEFINED EYE AND
GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
FORECAST REASONING.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS
FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY BY THE 24 HOUR POINT THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MAJORITY
OF OUR STATISTICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST AIDS SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD RECURVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVE INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW.  THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 23 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS
AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 280300Z3
(DTG 280151Z7) AND 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3).//

PAGE 06 RUHPSGG3671 UNCLAS
BT
#3671

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