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Date:	Sun, 19 Apr 1998 15:18:08 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 34s Warning Nr 004
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

125
WTXS31 PGTW 192100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- 10.8S9 72.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 72.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 11.2S4 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 11.6S8 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 12.2S5 67.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 12.8S1 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 13.8S2 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION 10.9S0   72.3E2.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S
HAS NOT INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS AS IT IS
UNDERGOING SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN STILL BE SEEN ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION. FORECAST TRACK REMAINS THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT TC34S TO RESUME
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THIS
SHEARING BECOMES WEAKER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (200151Z9),
200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5), 201500Z8 (201351Z2) AND 202100Z5 (DTG
201951Z8).//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUEOMCA13001092014

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