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Date:	Sun, 18 Jan 1998 21:38:41 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s Warning Nr 004
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

796
WTXS31 PGTW 190300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- 18.8S7 35.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG2384 UNCLAS
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 35.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 20.2S4 35.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 21.6S9 35.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG2384 UNCLAS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 23.0S5 35.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 24.4S0 36.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 19.2S2 35.7E5
LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG2384 UNCLAS
CYCLONE 13S HAS STARTED A TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH NEAR
THE ZAMBEZI RIVER DELTA AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
20NM INLAND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190002Z2
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED
FROM SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND COOLED, INDICATING MORE INTENSE CONVECTION,
NEAR THE COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH AS IT TRACKS OVER WATER ALONG
THE AFRICAN COASTLINE. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS INTERACTION WITH LAND DECREASES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG 191353Z2) AND 200300Z5 (DTG
200153Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#2384

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