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Date:	Mon, 16 Mar 1998 13:58:58 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Rmks/
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

078
WTXS21 PGTW 162000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 161951Z MAR 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S0 62.2E0 TO
20.2S4 59.5E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30
KNOTS.  METSAT IMAGERY AT 161701Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S0 61.7E4.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST
24 HOURS.  161508Z1 MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUOUS
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYSTEM=S ORGANIZATION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD
OVER THE SYSTEM.  SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS 20 KNOT WINDS
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 172000Z0.//

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