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Date:	Mon, 26 Jan 1998 14:02:35 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

797
WTXS31 PGTW 262100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- 18.6S5 117.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 117.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 18.8S7 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 19.1S1 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 19.4S4 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.7S7 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 20.3S5 110.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION 18.6S5  117.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWARD
AT 03 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 261730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR
POSITION FROM WMO NUMBER 94312 (PORT HEDLAND). THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, WITH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATED WIND
SPEEDS  INCREASING AT LEAST 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (TIFFANY) CONTINUES
TO SLOW IN FORWARD MOTION AS IT HAS REACHED A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD START TO SLOWLY GAIN FORWARD SPEED BY THE 24 HOUR
POSITION AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) TO GRADUALLY TRACK MORE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PEAK IN
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN, PARTICULARLY AFTER 36 HOURS, AS IT WILL
TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 261800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6),
270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2), 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9) AND 272100Z2
(DTG 271951Z5).//

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