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Date:	Thu, 26 Feb 1998 15:49:18 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/amended Significant Tropical Weather Advisory For
The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

646
ABIO10 PGTW 261430 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/AMENDED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/261400Z/261800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/251751Z FEB 98//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/261425Z FEB 98//
NARR/REF A SIGNIFICANTTROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN VALID 251800Z, REF B IS TCFA CANCELLATION//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF CARPENTERIA
LOCATED
NEAR 15.4S0 139.3E6 IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION
ALERT.  SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW) FOR DETAILS.  NOTE: THIS AREA IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF 135E9 AND IS INCLUDED IN THE EVENT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THIS ADVISORY AREA.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2S0 41.5E0 IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE
COAST
OF WESTERN MADAGASCAR NEAR 17S8 45E9.  THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED
EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS.  ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN
ALL QUADRANTS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO
BE 1005 MB. DUE TO SYSTEM INTERACTION WITH LAND, THE POTENTIAL
FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS
POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHEAST OF THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.0S5 56.4E5 PER REF B,  HAS MOVED INTO
AN AREA
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE EXPOSED LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS AREA
IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS 100 NM TO THE
EAST.  THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA PREVIOUSLY
NEAR 07S7 71E8 REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY.  ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS CONVECTION
APPEARS
TO BE THE RESULT OF LINEAR CONVERGENCE AT THE GRADIENT LEVEL.  NO
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS
A
RESULT, THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT
TO
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
(6) THIS MSG IS A CORRECTED COPY DUE TO ADMIN ERROR IN REF
B OF ORIGINAL MSG.
AJTWC SENDS
FORECAST TEAM: POINDEXTER/BAKER/MCNULTY//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUHPSGG02990572122

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