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Date:	Tue, 7 Apr 1998 12:27:48 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

262
ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/071800Z/081800Z APR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/071351Z APR 98//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/071353Z APR 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF INDIA
NEAR 4N4 75E2.  THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
FOR 12 HOURS.  THERE IS NO DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION EXITS.  UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB.  THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
24 HOURS IS POOR.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 071200Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S WAS LOCATED AT
13.8S2 72.0E9  MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS.  SEE REF A, (TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 32S WARNING NR 02
(WTXS31 PGTW 071500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 071200Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S WAS LOCATED AT
15.4S0 73.7E7 MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS.  SEE REF B, (TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 33S WARNING NR 02
(WTXS32 PGTW 071500)) FOR FINAL WARNING.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 51E6 IS NOW NEAR 10S1 48E2.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION.
CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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