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Date:	Mon, 9 Feb 1998 20:28:36 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (anacelle) Warning Nr 009
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

143
WTXS31 PGTW 100300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- 14.9S4 60.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 60.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.9S5 59.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 17.1S9 59.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.3S2 59.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.5S5 58.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 15.2S8   60.4E0
TROPCIAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 6 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW.  TC
20S (ANACELLE) IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD
A SELF-INDUCED WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  TC
20S (ANACELLE) IS EXHIBITING GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER WILL NOW BE ISSUING NEW BULLETINS ON
THIS SYSTEM EVERY 12 HOURS, UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST REQUIRES AN AMENDMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100000Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG
101351Z1) AND 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  21S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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