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Date:	Wed, 11 Feb 1998 08:25:49 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (anacelle) Warning Nr 012
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

368
WTXS31 PGTW 111500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- 20.9S1 59.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 59.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 22.9S3 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 24.7S3 59.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 26.5S3 59.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 28.6S6 60.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION 21.4S7 59.3E7
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(ANACELLE) HAS CONTINUED ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK AND IS NOW
MOVING AT 13 KNOTS.  THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON A 111201Z6 SATELLITE BULLETIN FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL
WEATHER CENTRAL WHICH INDICATED THE SYSTEM HAS A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS AND A 14NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE.
THE FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR AS TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON ITS SOUTHERLY TRACK AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTERWARDS, TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0) AND 121500Z9 (DTG
121351Z3).  REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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