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Date:	Mon, 23 Nov 1998 20:48:52 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Rmks/
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

004
WTXS21 PGTW 240100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 240051Z NOV 98//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.1S6 69.7E2 TO 7.5S2 62.3E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231800Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.3S8 68.9E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN. A 231744Z1 SCATTEROMETER PASS SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL
EXISTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 231531Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGER
PASS SHOWS THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MQVIMUM SEASURACE PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 250100Z8.//

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