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Date:	Tue, 17 Mar 1998 11:17:45 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

968
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z/181800Z MAR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/171353Z MAR 98//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/171351Z MAR 98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 171200Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WAS
LOCATED AT 26.1S9 078.8E3 AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE)
WARNING NR12 (WTXS32 PGTW 171500)) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.
(2) AT 171200Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) WAS
LOCATED AT 17.3S1 59.7E1 AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) WARNING
NR02 (WTXS31 PGTW 171500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
NEAR 17S8 062E8 HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSED IN SECTION 2.A.(2) ABOVE.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 24 HOURS
NEAR 16S7 110E2. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/MCCULLOCH/BACON//

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