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Date:	Tue, 29 Sep 1998 12:45:37 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 02s Warning Nr 002
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

840
WTXS31 PGTW 291500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- 8.7S5 77.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S5 77.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 8.8S6 77.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG1663 UNCLAS
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 8.9S7 76.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 9.0S9 75.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG1663 UNCLAS
011200Z4 --- 9.2S1 74.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 9.5S4 73.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION  8.7S5   77.6E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S CONTINUED
TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 291130Z6 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  291130Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION
APPROXIMATELY 20NM TO WEST. ANIMATION INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS SIMILAR AS TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG1663 UNCLAS
PERIOD AS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.  AFTERWARDS, TC 02S IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9),
300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2), 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8) AND 301500Z9 (DTG
301353Z5).//
BT
#1663

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