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Date:	Wed, 28 Jan 1998 20:40:10 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

616
WTXS32 PGTW 290300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- 14.2S7 128.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 128.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 14.2S7 127.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 14.3S8 125.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 14.5S0 124.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 14.8S3 122.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 15.5S1 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 14.2S7  128.2E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE EASTERLY STEERING OF
A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THIS TRACK CARRIES THE SYSTEM
OVER LAND THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 24 HOURS, CAUSING A TEMPORARY
WEAKENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS CLEAR OF LAND AFFECTS. THE
POSITION AND WARNING INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 282330Z VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TC 14P (LES). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6), 291500Z7 (DTG
291353Z3), 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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