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Date:	Wed, 11 Nov 1998 20:13:18 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

712
WTXS31 PGTW 120300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 19.5S5 92.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 92.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.4S6 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 21.5S8 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 22.3S7 92.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 22.9S3 93.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 92.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 5 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED UPON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 04S (ALISON)
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATED TC 04S (ALISON) IS UNDERGOING MODERATE TO
SEVERE SHEAR. HENCE, TS 04S (ALISON) SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
WATER BY THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3)
AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1).//

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