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Date:	Tue, 17 Mar 1998 08:41:41 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 27s (elsie) Warning Nr 012
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

994
WTXS32 PGTW 171500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG6072 UNCLAS
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- 26.1S9 078.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S9 078.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 26.2S0 080.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 26.3S1 081.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG6072 UNCLAS
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 171130Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ANIMATED VISIBLE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME ALMOST COMPLETELY SHEARED AND THE
NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION IS 85 NM FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE EAST AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A PREEXISTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
ROUGHLY THE SAME INTENSITY THROUGHOUT 24 HOURS DUE TO
ACCELERATION AS IT CONTINUES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) IS FORECAST TO HAVE COMPLETED
ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 12
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL
PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG6072 UNCLAS
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#6072

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