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Date:	Thu, 12 Feb 1998 18:45:21 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

579
ABIO10 PGTW 130000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/130000Z/131800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 121351Z FEB 98//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 121955Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 121200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WAS
LOCATED AT 25.4S1 61.3E0, MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE)
WARNING NR 14 (WTXS31 PGTW 121500)) AND TWLEVE-HOURLY UPDATES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 121800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WAS LOCATED
AT 16.3S0 110.1E3, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING
NR 08 (WTXS33 PGTW 122100)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS LOCATED NEAR
18S9 AND 44E8. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS NEAR THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH SCATTEROMETRY AT
120727Z9 AND 122100Z6 SYNOPTIC DATA (FROM WMO NUMBERS 61972 AND
61970) INDICATED AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WITH CYCLONIC
CURVATURE. KGWC SATELLITE ANALYSTS INDICATED THAT A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WAS PRESENT IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR BUT COULD
BE UPGRADED BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
(2) THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 15S6 AND 70E7.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION, LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA,
HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 8 TO 12 HOURS. SCATTEROMETRY AT
121809Z1 INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, SYNOPTIC
DATA AT 122100Z6 SUGGEST THAT SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE
REGION ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1009MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR RE-ISSUE: TO ADD SUSPECT AREAS TO SECTION
2.B.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/MCCULLOCH/BACON//

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