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Date:	Fri, 10 Apr 1998 21:51:18 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gemma) Warning Nr 009
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

244
WTXS31 PGTW 110300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- 16.3S0 075.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 075.7E9

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG7403 UNCLAS
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 16.7S4 077.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 17.4S2 077.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG7403 UNCLAS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 18.2S1 077.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 18.8S7 076.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION 16.4S1  076.0E3.

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG7403 UNCLAS
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 7 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS DERIVED FROM INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AS IT IS
INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER,
NEAR 36 HOURS, UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR FROM A DEVELOPING RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASINGLY BECOME A FACTOR IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
DOMINANT STEERING LEVEL. THE COMBINED AFFECT SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF SURFACE WINDS AND A WESTWARD CHANGE OF
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2) AND 120300Z6 (DTG
120151Z0).//
BT
#7403

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