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Date:	Thu, 15 Oct 1998 07:06:34 -0500
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Subject:      Indian-N: Rmks/
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Status: U

547
WTIO21 PGTW 150900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 150855Z OCT 98//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 325 NM RADIUS OF 16.9N6 063.5E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG8150 UNCLAS
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 150701Z4 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N9 062.9E7. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE ARABIAN SEA
HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS AND
A 141850Z9 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL. DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WEST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 160900Z6.//
BT
#8150

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