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Date:	Mon, 9 Nov 1998 08:19:18 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

282
WTXS31 PGTW 091500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- 13.8S2 095.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 095.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 14.2S7 094.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 14.6S1 093.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 15.1S7 091.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 15.6S2 090.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION 13.9S3  095.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
091142Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS IS BASED ON 091130Z4 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND
75 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND
IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS RIDGE IS REBUILDING AND HAS DEVELOPED A NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THE STEERING FLOW FROM THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8) AND 101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1).//

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