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Date:	Sat, 6 Jun 1998 14:59:13 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 03a Warning Nr 011
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

452
WTIO31 PGTW 062100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- 13.7N1 68.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 68.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.0N6 67.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.3N0 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.9N7 67.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.5N5 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.7N1 68.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION 14.0N5   68.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR FROM
THE EAST.  HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION
CONTINUES AS TC 03A APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS.  THERE ARE NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) PASSES AT
061305Z AND 061524Z.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 0618Z
IS 17 FEET.  REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4),
070900Z6 (DTG 070751Z0), 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7) AND 072100Z0
(DTG 071951Z3).//

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