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Date:	Tue, 15 Dec 1998 19:53:14 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 08a Warning Nr 013
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

425
WTIO31 PGTW 160300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- NEAR 17.9N7 63.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N7 63.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 18.4N3 62.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 19.0N0 60.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 19.5N5 58.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 19.7N7 54.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.0N9 63.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A 152300Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. SATELLITE
ANIMATION INDICATES TC 08A HAS UNDERGONE CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS RAPID SHEARING OF THE SYSTEM
LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
IS NOW DISORGANIZED, IT SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS TO WEAKEN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL
CIRRUS CONTINUING TO BE ADVECTED TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE A LARGE
AMOUNT OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST
INTO OMAN. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT MAY ALSO BECOME MORE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNDER THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON
THE LOWER LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
INFLUENCING A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 08A IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES CONDSIDERABLE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. TC 08A SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160757Z6),
161500Z3 (DTG 161357Z3), 162100Z0 (DTG 161957Z9) AND 170300Z1 (DTG
170157Z1).//

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