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Date:	Sun, 13 Dec 1998 02:43:46 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

120
WTIO31 PGTW 130900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 10.9N0 68.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N0 68.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 11.6N8 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 12.2N5 66.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 12.9N2 65.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 13.4N8 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 14.4N9 62.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.1N3   68.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130500Z VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SHIP OBSERVATIONS.
ALTHOUGH STILL LARGE AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED, THIS SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. OUR FORECASTED INTENSITY
REFLECTS THIS. TC 08A IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING, ITS CURRENT
MOVEMENT DUE TO A WESTWARD INFLUENCE BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A
NORTHWARD INFLUENCE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SELF-PROPAGATION AND A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z0 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4), 132100Z7 (DTG
131951Z0), 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2) AND 140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8).//

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