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Date:	Thu, 16 Apr 1998 12:27:15 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

936
ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z APR 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2
55E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 55E0.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY LESS
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 9S9 135E9.  THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR 24 HOURS AND HAS BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THIS CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS INDICATED ON A
160101Z9 SCATTEROMETER PASS AND SYNOPTIC DATA.  ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13S4 91E0. THIS AREA OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
FAIR.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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