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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi 010135z Mar
98//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

272
WTXS21 PGTW 011330
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 011321Z MAR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 010135Z MAR 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3S5 165.5E7 TO
13.7S1 172.7E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 011130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 166.3E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DUE TO ITS
LOCATION WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME FOR
THE PAST 06 HOURS AND OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
5. JUSTIFICATION FOR RE-ISSUE: THE DISTURBANCE HAD MOVED OUT OF
THE ORIGINAL FORMATION ALERT AREA.
6. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 021330Z9.//

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