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Date:	Sun, 19 Apr 1998 03:13:06 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 34s Warning Nr 002
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

686
WTXS31 PGTW 190900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- 10.5S6 74.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 74.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 10.8S9 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 11.3S5 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 11.8S0 68.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 12.5S8 66.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 14.1S6 63.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION 10.6S7   73.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 190530Z8 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST
REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WEAK TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW ONLY A SLOW RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0), 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6), 200300Z5 (DTG
200151Z9), AND 200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
35S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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