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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Gu/011321z Mar 98//
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Status: RO

690
WTXS22 PGTW 011930
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 011923Z MAR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/011321Z MAR 98//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
011330)//
RMKS/

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG7101 UNCLAS
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS OF 8.8S6 156.9E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 011730Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4
155.5E6.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 10 TO 12
HOURS. A SCATTEROMETRY PASS AT 011235Z2 INDICATED THAT A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITH STRONG CYCLONIC
TURNING WERE PRESENT WITHIN THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. ANIMATION
OF INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING MAY BE PRESENT WITHIN THE DISTURBANCE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 021930Z5.

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG7101 UNCLAS
6. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 166.3E6//
BT
#7101

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