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Date:	Sun, 25 Jan 1998 10:18:10 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

536
WTXS31 PGTW 251500 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- 17.9S7 119.4E5

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG7855 UNCLAS
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 119.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 18.7S6 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 19.2S2 116.0E8

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG7855 UNCLAS
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 19.5S5 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 19.6S6 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG7855 UNCLAS
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION 18.1S0  118.9E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON 251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE FORWARD SPEED OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY)
SHOULD SLOW AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ITS
SOUTHWEST BY THE 24 HOUR POSITION. BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION, AND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
ORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG7855 UNCLAS
SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT
CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION AND
THEREAFTER, INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AT A MORE STEADY RATE AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG
260151Z5) AND 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (LES) WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM. JUSTIFICATION: TO CORRECT TIME OF SATELLITE IMAGERY.//
BT
#7855

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