

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id UAA35590;
Wed, 11 Feb 1998 20:45:49 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 7794154 for
[email-masked]; Wed, 11 Feb 1998 20:45:45 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id UAA14320 for
<[email-masked]>; Wed, 11 Feb 1998 20:45:44 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id UAA11638
for [email-masked]; Wed, 11 Feb 1998 20:45:43 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Wed, 11 Feb 1998 20:45:43 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (anacelle) Warning Nr 013
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

769
WTXS31 PGTW 120300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- 23.3S8 60.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S8 60.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 26.2S0 61.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 29.4S5 63.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 32.7S2 65.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 35.6S4 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION 24.0S6   60.7E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 120001Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102
KNOTS FROM KGWC SATELLITE ANALYSTS AND CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM=S FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THIS TROUGH, TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A TURN SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION.
THE SYSTEM=S FORWARD MOTION WILL ALSO INCREASE DUE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3) AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  22S (VICTOR) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.