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Date:	Tue, 17 Mar 1998 12:15:22 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 28s (fiona) Warning Nr 002
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

984
WTXS31 PGTW 171500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG6586 UNCLAS
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- 17.3S1 059.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 059.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 17.4S2 058.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 17.7S5 057.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG6586 UNCLAS
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 18.0S9 056.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 18.3S2 055.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG6586 UNCLAS
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 171200Z1
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
ELONGATED AND WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN OVERALL DEEP
CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180300Z2 AND 181500Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE)
WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
BT
#6586

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