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Date:	Mon, 14 Dec 1998 14:30:00 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

593
WTIO31 PGTW 142000
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 15.3N9 66.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTR
W-- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORIR RI               PIP NM EL
SEWHERE
REPEAT POSKON9 66.5E7
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 17.5N3 65.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 -KCSJRA 64.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
H
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 19.8N8 62.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RA
L050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NOR
RCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DOTX QP KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 20.1N3 60.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS GK
I RADIUS OF 050 KT WI 4-4
-3-- RADIUS OF 035 KT WIVIPBCE
VWCIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 20.5N7 57.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.8N4   66.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141630Z5
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLON08A HAS BEE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE SYSTEM

IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST=
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BEGINS TO
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL PRIOR TO THE 72-HOUR TRACK POSITION.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3),
150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9), 151500Z2 (DTG 151351Z6) AND 152100Z9 (DTG
151951Z2).//

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