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Date:	Sun, 13 Dec 1998 08:19:15 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

787
WTIO31 PGTW 131500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 11.2N4 67.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N4 67.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 12.0N3 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 12.7N0 65.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 13.4N8 64.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 14.0N5 62.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 14.8N3 60.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.4N6   67.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131101Z7 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. AFTER THE
24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
BUILD WHICH WILL ALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A TO TAKE A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS
16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0), 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2),
140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8) AND 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5).//

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