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Date:	Wed, 11 Mar 1998 04:56:49 -0600
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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Gu/100753z Mar 98//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

019
WTXS22 PGTW 110800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 110753Z MAR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/100753Z MAR 98//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW
100800)//
RMKS/

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG5383 UNCLAS
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 220 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2S7 85.8E1 TO
19.2S2 74.4E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25
KNOTS.  METSAT IMAGERY AT 110530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S4 84.3E5.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. CONVECTION OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM, WITH LITTLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
OUTFLOW IS FAIR.  THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 120800Z1.//
BT
#5383

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