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Date:	Wed, 21 Oct 1998 01:59:08 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Rmks/
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

289
WTXS21 PGTW 210700
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 210651Z OCT 98//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 175 NM RADIUS OF 8.7S5 104.7E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210330Z9 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.1S9 104.5E0. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA
IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THE AREA HAS PERSISTED FOR AT LEAST
24 HOURS, BUT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. SURFACE SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A 20 KNOT SHIP REPORT WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THE LOW-
LEVEL. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS OUTFLOW ABOVE THE
CONVECTION IS GOOD. HOWEVER, UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS INDICATES THIS
CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 220700Z1.//

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