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Date:	Sun, 8 Nov 1998 07:29:52 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

972
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- 11.8S0 98.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 98.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 12.2S5 97.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 12.7S0 96.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 13.3S7 95.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 13.9S3 94.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION 11.9S1   98.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN AND IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 081130Z3 SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS STEERING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY CLIMATOLOGICALLY AT ONE DVORAK T-NUMBER PER DAY AS IT
WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. WIND
RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6) AND 091500Z5 (DTG
091351Z9). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 080948Z NOVEMBER 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
080600).//

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