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Date:	Wed, 16 Dec 1998 14:14:52 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 08a Warning Nr 016
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

322
WTIO31 PGTW 162000
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 18.0N9 59.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 18.0N9 59.9E3
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 18.6N5 57.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 19.3N3 55.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 20.0N2 54.4E3
MAB SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.2N1 59.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS AND 35 KNOTS SHIP
OBSERVATIONS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS TC 08A IS

TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK

PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED AND TC 08A SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER WATER

UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL JUST AFTER THE 12 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AT
THAT TIME, TC 08A WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER LAND. THE WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE 35 KNOT WINDS REFLECTED IN AN
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z6 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170157Z1), 170900Z7 (DTG

170757Z7), 171500Z4 (DTG 171357Z4) AND 172100Z1 (DTG 171957Z0).//

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