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Date:	Mon, 7 Dec 1998 12:03:14 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

393
ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071800Z/081800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/070753Z DEC 98//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9N9 AND 79E6 OFF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
AREA HAS FLARED UP WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND UW CIMSS WINDSHEAR CHARTS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN THE AREA. SYNOPTIC
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD MONSOON TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 070600Z3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
10S1 131E5, MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 070900)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 93E2 IS
NOW NEAR 11S2 95E4. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA
HAS FLARED UP WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE
ANIMATION AND UW CIMSS WINDSHEAR CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IN THE AREA. THIS WINDSHEAR IS DISPLACING THE CONVECTION
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SYNOPTIC SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS INDICATE CONTINUED WINDSHEAR DUE TO THE
CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR 9S9 71E8
YESTERDAY HAS FILLED. THE ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALSO DISSIPATED.
THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM:
PARSONS/MCCULLOCH/HERRON/PARKER/BALDINGER/JACKSON/JONES//

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