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Date:	Sun, 22 Feb 1998 12:42:42 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

108
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/221800Z/231800ZFEB98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION OFF OF THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21S3 50E5 HAS MOVED TO NEAR
19S0 52E7A.  THIS AREA HAS PERSISTED FOR 48 HOURS. SSMI DATA AND
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AND IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND POOR
ELSEWHERE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA NEAR
13S4 78E5 HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF WEAKLY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS INDICATED BY SSMI
DATA SHIP SYNOPTIC REPORTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR. ?
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
SUMATRA NEAR 10S1 93E2 HAS DISSIPATED. THIS AREA IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: HILL/TANNAHILL//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUHPSGG38700531830

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