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Date:	Thu, 12 Feb 1998 20:08:01 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

783
WTXS33 PGTW 130300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- 16.7S4 108.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 108.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 17.4S2 106.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 17.8S6 103.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 18.0S9 101.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 18.2S1 98.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 18.5S4 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION 16.9S6  108.3E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
122330Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR)
HAS DEVELOPED A CLOUD FILLED 10NM EYE AS IT CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 102 KNOTS. THE WIND RADII
WERE ADJUSTED USING CONTINUITY FROM A 120220Z7 SCATTEROMETER
PASS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST TRACK SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY PREVENTING ANY FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE 36 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG
130755Z1), 131500Z0 (DTG 131355Z8), 132100Z7 (DTG 131955Z4) AND
140300Z8 (DTG 140155Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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