

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id CAA11812;
Sat, 31 Jan 1998 02:29:08 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 7646381 for
[email-masked]; Sat, 31 Jan 1998 02:28:55 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id CAA35044 for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 31 Jan 1998 02:28:54 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id CAA13699
for [email-masked]; Sat, 31 Jan 1998 02:28:53 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Sat, 31 Jan 1998 02:28:53 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

487
WTXS32 PGTW 310900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z0 --- 17.0S8 122.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 122.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.7S5 121.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 18.4S3 120.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 19.1S1 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.8S8 118.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 21.3S6 116.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION 17.2S0  122.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS.  THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
310530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AUGMENTED
BY 302351Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGER DATA.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DESPITE BEING OVER A COASTAL LAND AREA.
OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, GOOD ELSEWHERE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 48-
AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES)
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z0 IS 13 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS
AT 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6), 312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2), 010300Z4
(DTG 010153Z0) AND 010900Z0 (DTG 010753Z6).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.