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Date:	Tue, 10 Feb 1998 08:14:19 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

561
WTXS33 PGTW 101500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 15.8S4 118.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 118.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.0S7 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 16.5S2 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 17.3S1 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 18.1S0 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 15.8S4 118.2E2
LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATTELITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS.  THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND 101056Z3 MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THE CURRENT WIND RADII
IS BASED ON A 40 KNOT SHIP REPORT IN THE SURROUNDING AREA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
REMAINS ORGANIZED, HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY AND AREAL CONVERAGE.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A MOSTLY WESTERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH.  AS THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK MORE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.  THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST.
AFTERWARDS IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z4 IS 13 FEET.  REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG 110155Z3)
AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111355Z6).  REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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