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Date:	Tue, 17 Nov 1998 19:50:33 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Ampn/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (wtio21 Pgtw
170500)//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

459
WTIO21 PGTW 180130
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/170451Z NOV 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 170500)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N5 093.4E6 TO 16.8N5 087.4E9
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 172331Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N5 093.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE ANDAMAN SEA HAS MOVED OUT OF THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AREA. THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP AND IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO FURTHER
DEVELOP AS IT ENTERS THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 190130Z4.//

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