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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

282
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/031800Z/041800Z NOV 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11N2 82E0
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12N3 80E8. THE CONVECTION REMAINS WITHIN A
REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS THAT A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY
EXIST OFFSHORE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
IN THE AREA HAS REMAINED DISORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 13N4 71E8 IN THE
ARABIAN SEA AND HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND WITHIN A
REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
BROAD OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR THE CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/SMITH/HATFIELD/JONES//

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