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Date:	Tue, 14 Apr 1998 13:38:36 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

518
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/141800Z/151800Z APR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/141351Z APR 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 141200Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WAS LOCATED
AT 14.2S7 76.5E8 AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A,
(TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 16 (WTXS31 PGTW
141500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1
60E6 HAS REORGANIZED NEAR 9S9 52E7. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN BE OBSERVED
WITH THE 140900Z VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW
SHEAR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS OVER THE REGION; HOWEVER, CONVECTION
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/SCHIBER/MCCULLOCH/BACON//

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