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Date:	Sun, 8 Nov 1998 14:50:39 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (alison) Warning Nr 002
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

318
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- 13.1S5 97.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 97.3E9
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 14.2S7 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 15.3S9 94.8E1
5   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIU
F 035 KTLINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.4S1 93.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 17.5S3 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION 13.4S8   97.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A 081730Z9 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS
FROM PGTW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. 081730Z9 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
CLOUD TOP COOLING AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A SUGGESTION
OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM SPOT INDICATIVE OF A 5 KNOT SYSTEM.
081800Z7 OBSERVATION FROM COCOS ISLAND (WMO 96996) SHOW SUSTAINED
34 KNOTS (TEN-MINUTE AVERAGE) WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 47 KNOTS (TEN=
MINUTE AVERAGE). TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) HAS BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE

TROUGH MAY WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SUFFICIENTLY TO IMPART A
MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK AFTER THE 36-HOUR FORECAST
POSITION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) IS FORECAST TO CONTPNUE TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT SHOULD REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION.  WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6) AND 091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9).//

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