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Date:	Thu, 19 Nov 1998 19:39:25 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 07b Warning Nr 001
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

772
WTIO31 PGTW 200300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- NEAR 13.4N8 89.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N8 89.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 14.4N9 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 15.6N2 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 17.0N8 85.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 19.0N0 85.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.7N1 89.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND IS
TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A 191634Z4 SCATTEROMETER PASS. TC 07B IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK TURNS
THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC 07B=S CONVECTION
HAS BEEN SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS. WEAKENING EASTERLY SHEAR, HOWEVER, IS NOW
ALLOWING THE FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 07B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY CLIMATOLOGICALLY THROUGHOUT
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
20000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN
WEST GU 191051Z NOV 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21
PGTW 191100) NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201353Z4), 210300Z6
(DTG 210153Z2), AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5).//

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