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Date:	Sun, 15 Feb 1998 20:47:47 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Ampn/rmks/
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Status: RO

511
WTXS21 PGTW 160300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 160251Z FEB 98//
AMPN/RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6S4 67.1E4 TO
32.1S6 66.7E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 152100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S3 67.5E8.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED ITS ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS ORGANIZING INTO
SPIRAL BANDS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 170300Z1.//

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