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Date:	Tue, 17 Feb 1998 08:03:36 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    03 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

487
WTXS33 PGTW 171500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 023
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- 21.5S8 81.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 81.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 21.8S1 78.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 22.4S8 76.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 23.3S8 74.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION 21.6S9   80.4E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 171131Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE
DISTURBANCE BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION ALLOWING TROPICAL CYCLONE
22S (VICTOR) TO TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
WATER BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0)
AND 181500Z5 (DTG 181355Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  23S
(BELTANE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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