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Date:	Mon, 26 Jan 1998 21:42:12 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southwest Pacific
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

586
WTXS31 PGTW 270300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- 18.5S4 117.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG2348 UNCLAS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 117.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 18.6S5 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG2348 UNCLAS
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 18.8S7 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 19.1S1 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG2348 UNCLAS
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 19.5S5 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 20.0S2 110.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG2348 UNCLAS
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION 18.5S4  117.1E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 262330Z6
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A 26
NM WELL-DEFINED EYE AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH 12 HOURS AS IT TRANSITS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.  AFTER 12 HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STRENGTHENING
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY BY THE
24 HOUR POINT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MAJORITY OF OUR STATISTICAL AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST AIDS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
RECURVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVE
INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.  THE PROBABILITY OF
THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

PAGE 06 RUHPSGG2348 UNCLAS
270000Z9 IS 22 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2),
271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5) AND 280300Z3
(DTG 280151Z7).//
BT
#2348

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