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Date:	Sun, 8 Feb 1998 12:57:52 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:  Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

705
ABIO10 PGTW 081800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/081800ZFEB98/091800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 081351Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 081200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WAS
LOCATED AT 12.6S9 61.3E0, MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) (WTXS31 PGTW 081500)) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22S4
045E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24S6 045E9. SYNOPTIC DATA AND
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND
HAS EXPERIENCED AN INCREASE IN NEAR-CENTRAL CONVECTION WITHIN
THE LAST 3 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NEW AND
DISORGANIZED, FAVORABLE LATTITUDE AND PROXIMITY OF WARM WATER
MAY ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY SWIFT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14S5
126E9 REMAINS NEAR THIS LOCATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC DATA, INDICATE
THE PRESSENCE OF AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. 081430Z
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
AND GENERALLY POOR ORGANIZATION, ALTHOUGH MOST RECENT IMAGERY
INDICATES A POSSIBLE CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN SIDE OF NEW
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR:  CORRECTED GRAMMAR
FORECAST TEAM: BOYER/JOHNSON/BOYD//

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