

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id CAA15434;
Mon, 9 Feb 1998 02:12:00 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 7744891 for
[email-masked]; Mon, 9 Feb 1998 02:10:57 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id CAA04602 for
<[email-masked]>; Mon, 9 Feb 1998 02:10:55 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id CAA03565
for [email-masked]; Mon, 9 Feb 1998 02:10:54 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Mon, 9 Feb 1998 02:10:54 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (anacelle) Warning Nr 006
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

456
WTXS31 PGTW 090900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- 13.3S7 61.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 61.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 13.3S7 60.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.3S7 60.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.4S8 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 13.7S1 58.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 14.5S0 56.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION 13.3S7   61.0E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANNACELLE) HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090601Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYZED BY KGWC.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS, AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH. THIS WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE, ALLOWING
FOR A SLOW WEST-SOUTWESTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5
(DTG 091351Z9), 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5), 100300Z4 (DTG
100151Z8) AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100751Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS (WTXS32) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.