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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

733
ABIO10 PGTW 081100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081100Z/081800Z NOV 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF OF INDIA INTO THE
ARABIAN SEA AND IS LOCATED NEAR 11N2 68E4. THIS CONVECTION HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 10 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA AND A
071752Z2 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 10N1 95E4. THIS AREA
OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING, HOWEVER
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS NO ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 98E7 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S1 99E8. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT. A 071231Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS SHOWS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDS CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADD FAIR SUSPECT AREA 1.B.(1)
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/SMITH/HATFIELD/JONES//

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