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Date:	Thu, 15 Oct 1998 23:28:13 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Colombo And
Amconsul Madras
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

007
WTIO31 PGTW 160300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG1282 UNCLAS
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- 17.0N8 65.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N8 65.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 17.3N1 67.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 17.7N5 68.3E7

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG1282 UNCLAS
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 18.1N0 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 18.5N4 69.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG1282 UNCLAS
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION 17.1N9   66.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A HAS FORMED IN THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AND IS
TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH IT EXPERIENCING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AT THE MOMENT, TC05A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
BECAUSE THE NOGAPS NUMERICAL MODEL PROGNOSTIC SERIES INDICATES THAT
THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX, PRODUCING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE
IR IMAGERY AT THE MOMENT, BUT WE HAVE DECIDED TO COMMENCE WARNING ON

IT BASED ON A 1518Z ERS-2 SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF 35 KNOT WINDS TO ITS SOUTH.  WE EXPECT
05A TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MOVING WITH THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 16000Z7

IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 150855Z OCT 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW
150900 ) NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG 161355Z1) AND 170300Z1 (DTG
170155Z9).//
BT
#1282

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