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Date:	Thu, 8 Oct 1998 10:53:38 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: O

747
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- 15.1S7 95.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 95.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.5S2 95.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 17.8S6 96.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.0S0 97.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 20.1S3 99.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION 15.4S0 95.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (45 KNOTS) ARE BASED ON
THE 081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATION INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND INTENSIFIED FROM 35 TO A
45 KNOT SYSTEM. SATELLITE ANIMATION OF INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED IN BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE
AREAS. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER THE SYSTEM
CENTER ALLOWING IT TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY.  SATELLITE ANIMATION AND
UNIV. OF WISCONSIN WATER VAPOR PRODUCTS ALSO INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS THE
TAIL END OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITS THE AREA. TC 03S SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST.  AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
FORWARD MOTION AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH
INTO A GREATER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE
48 HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z1 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG 090155Z0) AND 091500Z5
(DTG 091355Z3).//

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