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Date:	Wed, 27 May 1998 23:50:36 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In North Io
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

512
WTIO31 PGTW 280500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:

PAGE 02 RUEDMCC4999 UNCLAS
280000Z0 --- 14.2N7 58.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N7 58.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 16.0N7 58.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 17.5N3 58.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---

PAGE 03 RUEDMCC4999 UNCLAS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 18.8N7 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION 14.7N2   58.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A HAS FORMED IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA AND
HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280100Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 271847Z9
SCATTEROMETER PASS.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
271847Z9 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING 35 KNOT SURFACE WINDS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A IS A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE SYSTEM.  THE
STEERING HAS BEEN FROM THE 700 MB RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND THIS STEERING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.  THEN, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A SHOULD ENTER AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE STEERING.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER THE 12

PAGE 04 RUEDMCC4999 UNCLAS
HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 12
FEET.  REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3),
281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0), 282100Z3 (DTG 281951Z6) AND 290300Z4
(DTG 290151Z8).//
BT
#4999

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