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Date:	Fri, 30 Oct 1998 01:09:01 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

447
ABIO10 PGTW 300700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/300700Z/301800Z OCT 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17N8 83E1
HAS MOVED OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR 15N7 83E0 WITHIN THE
LAST 12 HOURS IN THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL. A 300137Z4 MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH ANIMATED INFRARED
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THIS CONVECTION IS IN A MODERATE-TO-
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
LOCATED 90 NM WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA AND IS
LOCATED NEAR 12N3 96E5. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POOR OUTFLOW ALOFT,
HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9 86E4 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11S2 82E0. A 291208Z2 MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
INDICATES FAIRLY ORGANIZED ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEATURES.
HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS MODERATE AND THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/SMITH/HATFIELD/JONES//

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