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Date:	Wed, 28 Jan 1998 03:59:40 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

254
WTXS31 PGTW 280900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- 19.4S4 113.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG8791 UNCLAS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 113.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.7S7 111.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG8791 UNCLAS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.9S9 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 20.1S3 108.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG8791 UNCLAS
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 20.2S4 106.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 20.4S6 103.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION 19.5S5  112.8E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG8791 UNCLAS
KNOTS.  WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 280530Z8
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(TIFFANY) HAS A 20 NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE.  ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED ONLY
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY)
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKENING
IN ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.  ALL OF OUR STATISTICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL,
AND SOME OF OUR DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTH NEAR THE 72 HOUR POINT TOWARD AN ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE PROBABILITY OF THIS ALTERNATE
FORECAST SCENARIO IS MODERATE.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280600Z6 IS 22 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG
281351Z0), 282100Z3 (DTG 281951Z6), 290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8) AND
290900Z0 (DTG 290751Z4).//
BT
#8791

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