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Date:	Fri, 5 Jun 1998 10:20:06 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 03a Warning Nr 006
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

142
WTIO31 PGTW 051500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- 12.0N3 70.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N3 70.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 12.4N7 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 12.7N0 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 12.8N1 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 13.3N7 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 14.3N8 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION 12.1N4   70.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12
HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 051200Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE WIND SHEAR FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE STEERING FLOW
FOR TC03A IS WEAK AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THE SYSTEM QUASI-
STATIONARY FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.  THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WINDS ALOFT AFFECTING TC03A ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN AT THE 24-HOUR
PERIOD THUS CAUSING A SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  AT THE 72-HOUR PERIOD,
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS DIVERGENT AND
THEREFORE HINDER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1),
060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3), 060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9) AND 061500Z2 (DTG
061351Z6).//

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