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Date:	Thu, 10 Dec 1998 13:15:06 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

845
WTXS32 PGTW 102100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 14.5S0 125.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 125.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 15.5S1 124.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.2S9 123.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 17.0S8 123.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.7S5 122.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3  125.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF 101730Z2 SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA)=S EYE IS NO LONGER
APPARENT. ANIMATION SHOWS TC 06S HAS APPROACHED THE COASTLINE OF
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA AND IS BEGINING TO EXPERIENCE INCREASED VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN INFLUENCING THE
TRACK AFTER THE 48 HOUR POSITION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK AFTER THE 48 HOUR POINT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(THELMA) HAS REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND IS BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE FLOW COMING IN OFF NORTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA, LAND INTERACTION, AND INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1
(DTG 110753Z7) AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0).//

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