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Date:	Wed, 18 Mar 1998 20:14:55 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 28s (fiona) Warning Nr 005
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

493
WTXS31 PGTW 190300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- 19.5S5 60.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 080 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 60.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 19.8S8 60.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 20.9S1 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 22.1S5 59.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 19.6S6  60.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 182300Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM 181700Z7 MICROWAVE
IMAGERY PASS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 182300Z4 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30
KNOTS AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE
28S= (FIONA) MOVEMENT HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTHERLY TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE 24 TO 36 HOUR POSITION
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES TO THE
SYSTEM=S WEST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) IS EXPERIENCING SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM=S INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AT THE 36 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG
191351Z0) AND 200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
29P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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