

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id IAA25180;
Mon, 16 Mar 1998 08:35:49 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 8176901 for
[email-masked]; Mon, 16 Mar 1998 08:35:43 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id IAA14084 for
<[email-masked]>; Mon, 16 Mar 1998 08:35:25 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id IAA27144
for [email-masked]; Mon, 16 Mar 1998 08:35:24 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Mon, 16 Mar 1998 08:35:24 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

768
WTXS32 PGTW 161500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- 24.7S3 77.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S3 77.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 25.8S5 76.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 26.6S4 76.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION 25.0S7 76.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) HAS SHOWN A PERSISTENT TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2 VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 161130Z2 SATELLITE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS.  THIS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN COMPLETELY EXPOSED FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN IT=S
ORGANIZATION.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND FURTHER DIFFUSES THE
SYSTEM.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE SOUTHWARD TRACK.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 12 FEET.  NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170153Z7).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.