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Date:	Thu, 23 Jul 1998 10:24:04 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

837
WTXS31 PGTW 231500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z8 --- 9.9S8 75.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 75.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 9.8S7 74.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 9.7S6 72.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 9.6S5 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 9.6S5 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 9.4S3 67.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION  9.9S8   75.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. MOST RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED,
COMPLETELY EXPOSING THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE
LOWER-LEVEL APPEARS TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN BEFORE AND MORE
INDICATIVE OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE
FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LOSING
LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION TO THE CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. TC 01S
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EQUATORWARD, WITH SHALLOW STEERING
INFLUENCE, OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 (DTG 231951Z1), 240300Z9 (DTG
240151Z3), 240900Z5 (DTG 240751Z9) AND 241500Z2 (DTG 241351Z6).
BT
#3939

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