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Date:	Fri, 13 Feb 1998 02:19:26 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

943
WTXS33 PGTW 130900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- 17.2S0 107.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 107.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 17.7S5 104.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 18.3S2 101.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 18.7S6 98.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 19.0S0 95.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 19.6S6 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION 17.3S1  106.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
130530Z VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WELL DEFINED EYE THAT FORMED AT 130000Z4 ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
22S (VICTOR) HAS DISSIPATED. RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST 5 HOURS AND IS NO LONGER INTENSIFYING. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
STEERING FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS MID
LEVEL FLOW IS CAUSING TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) TO MOVE
INTO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS ORIENTED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM
DEVELOPING ANY FURTHER, AND SHOULD BEGIN A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. THE SYSTEM=S FORWARD SPEED
SHOULD SLOW A LITTLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z0 (DTG 131355Z8), 132100Z7 (DTG 131955Z4), 140300Z8 (DTG
140155Z6) AND 140900Z4 (DTG 140755Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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