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Date:	Tue, 10 Nov 1998 20:06:42 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

044
WTXS31 PGTW 110300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.5S3 92.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 92.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.5S4 92.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.4S4 92.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.1S3 92.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 20.8S0 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 92.4E5.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(ALISON) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.  THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE
DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON 100343Z1 SCATTEROMETRY DATA. TC 04S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2) AND 120300Z6
(DTG 120151Z0).//

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