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Date:	Thu, 23 Jul 1998 20:55:52 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

532
WTXS31 PGTW 240300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z6 --- 9.5S4 76.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S4 76.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 9.4S3 75.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 9.2S1 75.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 9.2S1 74.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION  9.5S4 75.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S IS QUASISTATIONARY SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED AS WELL AS ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ONCE AGAIN AFFECTING
TOPICAL CYCLONE 01S. ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, NOGAPS ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHEARED
OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.  DUE TO THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT,
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT TC 01S WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CONTINUING THE WARNING DUE
TO THE SYSTEM=S PROXIMITY TO DIEGO GARCIA, WE ARE SWITCHING TO 12
HOUR UPDATES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNING IS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241351Z6) AND 250300Z0
(DTG 250151Z4).//
BT
#0001

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