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Date:	Mon, 19 Jan 1998 08:38:39 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s Warning Nr 005
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

169
WTXS31 PGTW 191500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- 20.3S5 34.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG3703 UNCLAS
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 34.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 22.0S4 34.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 23.3S8 35.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 24.8S4 35.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG3703 UNCLAS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 26.9S7 36.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION 20.7S9   34.9E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST AT 11 KNOTS.  THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON VISUAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
190900Z9 INLAND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM WMO NUMBER
67297 OF 23 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS OF 30 TO
35 KNOTS OVER THE WATER.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S SHOULD
START TRACKING MORE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AND REMAIN OVER LAND DURING THIS TIME RESULTING IN
SLIGHT WEAKENING.  AFTER 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH SHOULD BRING IT

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG3703 UNCLAS
OVER THE WATER AND ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200153Z1) AND 201500Z8
(DTG 201353Z4).  REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#3703

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