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Date:	Fri, 20 Nov 1998 03:46:34 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 07b Warning Nr 002
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

748
WTIO31 PGTW 200900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONING POSITION:
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTK
FJWGU
SYAVA PTT KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS TD W
TP KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
P P                  015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
N            090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N0 87.8E3
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VAL
E AT:
201800Z1 --- 18.6N5 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINIA PTP NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NV ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 19. 3)-32#343 9;34 2-534
;3:594 59 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 21.6N9 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
NXVU8-),. 3)-32#343 9;34 2-534
4-$87- 9> 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
H                               OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 23.9N4 88.2T          070 NM ELSEWHERE OVERWAOAAEDA

LECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 94-, VALID AT:
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
PPI    OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATE
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.2N9  87.4E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS CONTITIED TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AT
18 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSWZUMN IS BASED UPON 200530Z8 VISIBLTH
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A 200154Z2 MICROWAVE SECSOR
IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UQON SATELLUTE CURRENT
INTENSIOXB
DMWVATES OF 45.-,$ 55 KNOTS. TC 07B HAS ACCELERATED SINCE

THE 200050,945#-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER THE 12 AND 24
HOUR FOR, RESPECTFULLY. TC 07B IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANHWQCVETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST POE TION. RECENT DATA
ALLOWING FOR AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE LOCATION OF TC 07B, AND THE
OVERALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROH THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND ACCELERATED
LANDFALL. AFTERWARDS, TC 07B SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
LAND. MAXI
UAI

EERMATION. WARNING TIMES
WIT
RETURN TO 12 HOUR INTERVALS AT THE 201200Z5 WARNING. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG GW210153Z2)9//

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