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Date:	Tue, 17 Feb 1998 14:14:49 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 23s (beltane) Warning Nr 004
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

724
WTXS32 PGTW 172100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (BELTANE) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- 25.1S8 44.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG5876 UNCLAS
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 44.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 25.4S1 44.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 25.7S4 45.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 26.1S9 45.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG5876 UNCLAS
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 26.6S4 45.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION 25.2S9   44.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (BELTANE) HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 171801Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 171515Z0 AND 171622Z9 INDICATED
THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (BELTANE) HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND
THEREFORE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM DEVELOPING
ANY FURTHER DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG5876 UNCLAS
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AS CONVECTION DIMINISHES EVEN FURTHER, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AT 36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS, LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE WATER BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4) AND 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  22S (VICTOR) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS
BT
#5876

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