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Date:	Tue, 17 Feb 1998 09:30:19 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 24s Warning Nr 003 Relocated
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

200
WTXS31 PGTW 171500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- 25.7S4 62.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG5297 UNCLAS
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S4 62.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 27.3S2 61.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 28.6S6 61.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 29.8S9 61.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG5297 UNCLAS
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 31.0S4 61.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION 26.1S9   62.0E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
180901Z9 AND 181101Z2 VISIBLE AND MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHICH REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WAS POSITIONED FURTHER WESTWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED THAT THE CONVECTION WAS
SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
DECREASE IN AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 10 HOURS.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG5297 UNCLAS
ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN CONCERT WITH COOLER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM DEVELOPING ANY
FURTHER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DURING THE PERIOD AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z2 (DTG 180151Z6) AND 181500Z5 (DTG
181351Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 23S (BELTANE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
BT
#5297

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