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Date:	Mon, 16 Feb 1998 10:32:32 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: This Warning Supersedes And Cancels Navpacmetoccen West
Gu
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

221
WTXS31 PGTW 161500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG2642 UNCLAS
160553Z FEB 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW
160600)
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- 22.1S5 64.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 64.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 23.0S5 62.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG2642 UNCLAS
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 24.0S6 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 25.2S9 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 26.6S4 59.6E0

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG2642 UNCLAS
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION 22.3S7 63.8E7
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21S3 66E2 HAS BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS A
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 161201Z INFRARED SATELLITE ANALYSIS FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL
WEATHER CENTRAL.  ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED STEADILY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 13
FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170151Z5) AND 171500Z4

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG2642 UNCLAS
(DTG 071351Z8).  REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.  REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
BT
#2642

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