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Date:	Wed, 16 Dec 1998 02:23:44 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:   01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

638
WTIO31 PGTW 160800
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED
ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
EAR 18.0N9 063.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS -300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINEB WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050-KT
RADIUSOF 035 ;5 28,$- - 070 NM
REPEAT QOSIT: 18.0N9-063.6E5
8   FORECASTS:
12 H
S, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 18.4N3 862.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDSLHT KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATINGHAS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVERIATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170 00Z4 --27
9N8 060.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, 147-5- 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT OPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 19.4N4 058.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICULALOVER AATER
VECTOR TO 48 ;#4 09-85: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600B5 --- 19.7N7 055.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROII
NYCLONE OVER LAND
REMARKS:
160900ZR POSITION NEAR 18.1N0   063,E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPO
A 160500W2

VISIBLE ATELLVOE (METEOSAT) IMAGERY. THE ZARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL DECREASE OF WINDSHIN A RAPID SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS TC 08A HAS UNDGONE CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR OVER THE PEET 12 TOURS.  IMATSALSO INDIA  A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LDVEL CIRULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
IS NOW DISORGANIZED, IT SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS TO WEQKEN. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. THE

FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS SHEARED SYSTEM IS OAE ON THE LOWEGSLEVEL
STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROP CAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH INFLUENCING A
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 08A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE

A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUG
OUT THE PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT TTE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
EXPERIE IGNDSIDERABLE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. TC 08A SHOULD
DISSIPA
PLGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLOM BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION.
THIS IS DUEO STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LAND NTERACTION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161500Z3 (G 161357Z3), 162100Z0 (DTG 161957Z9), 170300Z1 (FBG
170157Z1) AND 170900Z7 (DTG 170757Z7)///

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