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Date:	Tue, 10 Feb 1998 08:57:07 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (anacelle) Warning Nr 010
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

276
WTXS31 PGTW 101500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 16.6S3 59.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 59.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.4S3 58.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 19.8S8 58.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 21.4S7 58.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 23.4S9 59.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 17.0S8 59.5E9
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE
20S (ANACELLE) IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 11
KNOTS AND HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS.  THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A
101201Z5 SATELLITE POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM AIR
FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTRAL WHICH INDICATED A 12NM CLOUD-
FILLED EYE.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH.  AT
THE 36 HOUR PERIOD TS 20S (ANACELLE) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) IS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD AND WEAKEN
SLOWLY AFTERWARDS.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4
IS 21 FEET.  REFER TO WWIO31 PGTW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9) AND
111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2).  REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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