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Date:	Sun, 18 Jan 1998 02:15:03 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s Warning Nr 002
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

080
WTXS31 PGTW 180900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- 17.7S5 36.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 36.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 19.6S6 34.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 21.7S0 34.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 24.0S6 34.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 26.1S9 35.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 29.4S5 38.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION 18.2S1 36.1E0
LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 180530Z7 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TOWARDS
THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED INLAND.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA.  AS IT MOVES OVER
WATER AT THE 48 HOUR PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS INTERACTION WITH LAND DIMINISHES.  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 22 FEET.  REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7) AND 190900Z9 (DTG
190753Z5).  REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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