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Date:	Sat, 7 Feb 1998 23:11:03 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

086
ABIO10 PGTW 080500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/080500ZFEB98/081800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 080151Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
(1) AT 080000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WAS LOCATED AT 13.2S6
63.3E2, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (WTXS31 PGTW 080300)) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21S3 045E9
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22S3 045E9. SYNOPTIC DATA AND ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS OVER LAND. CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED AND HAS
BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15S6 127E0
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14S5 126E9. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS FROM TROUGHTON ISLAND INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO
27 KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, SURFACE PRESSURES
REMAINED AROUND 1009 TO 1010 MB, WITH 24 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES
ONLY NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS,
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED ACROSS THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE NAVAL OPERATIONAL GLOBAL
ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) THAT THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/SMITH/MCCULLOCH/BACON//

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