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Date:	Thu, 12 Feb 1998 08:22:19 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

129
WTXS33 PGTW 121500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- 15.5S1 111.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 111.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.3S0 109.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 16.8S5 107.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 17.2S0 105.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 17.5S3 103.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 17.6S4 99.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION 15.7S3  110.9E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS
DIRECTION THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WEAKENS THE RIDGE. AFTER THIS TIME, WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME AS THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH DISSIPATE. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 (DTG
121955Z3), 130300Z7 (DTG 130155Z5), 130900Z3 (DTG 130755Z1) AND
131500Z0 (DTG 131355Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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