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Date:	Sat, 14 Nov 1998 02:22:57 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06b Warning Nr 001a Amended
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

608
WTIO31 PGTW 140900 AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 001A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 14.2N7 85.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N7 85.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.0N7 84.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 17.6N4 83.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 18.9N8 83.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 19.8N8 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.7N2 85.4E7. THIS WARNING IS AMENDED
BASED ON INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B HAS BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT 13 KNOTS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST.  THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 140530Z3 VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND 140256Z8 MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. BASED
ON RECENT DATA, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND APPROACH
THE COAST OF INDIA BY THE 36 HOUR PERIOD.  ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER WATER THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST.
AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z1 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5) AND 150300Z9
(DTG 150151Z3).//

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