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Date:	Sun, 15 Feb 1998 12:10:51 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

052
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z/161800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 151355Z FEB 98//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 150551Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 151200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WAS LOCATED
AT 19.9S9 094.4E7, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 19 (WTXS33 PGTW
151500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18S9
44E8 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.
SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 130600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE AREA OF
CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21S3 41E5. SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC
DATA SUGGESTS A BROAD CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15S6
AND 70E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18S9 70E7. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS PERSISTED IN THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
AND IS NO LONGER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: HILDEBRAND/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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