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Date:	Wed, 9 Dec 1998 02:02:07 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

135
WTXS32 PGTW 090900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 12.3S6 127.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 127.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.8S1 127.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.2S6 126.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.6S0 125.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 14.1S6 124.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WNDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7  127.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM RETAINS ITS EYE AND CONTINUES
TO BE EXTREMELY INTENSE. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 090530Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS. THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE REMAINS THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE GAIN IN LATITUDE
REFLECTS MODULATION OF THE RIDGE BY PASSING MID-LATITUDE WAVES AS
WELL AS THAT BY THE TC ITSELF. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECASTED INTENSITIES OR WIND RADII. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG
091953Z7) AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6).//

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