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Date:	Thu, 4 Jun 1998 20:56:00 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

275
WTIO31 PGTW 050300 REGENE RATED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- 11.3N5 71.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N5 71.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 11.0N2 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 10.9N0 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 11.2N4 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 11.7N9 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 13.1N5 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION 11.2N4   71.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A HAS REGENERATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
REMAINS QUASI-STAIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050000Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CONTINUITY WITH 041020Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 041549Z3 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS AND
ANIMATION OF INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH INDICATED A TIGHT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH 24 HOURS AS STEERING FLOW
REMAINS WEAK. AFTER 24 HOURS, A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DEVELOPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THIS IS DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TROPICAL CYCLONE
03A HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SOME DURING THE PAST
10 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AND THEN FLARE UP AGAIN
OVER THE TIME PERIOD. BY THE 24 POSITION, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD RELAX LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
AND THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8), 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5), 052100Z8 (DTG
051951Z1) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3).//

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