

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id UAA17122;
Sat, 31 Jan 1998 20:21:40 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 7652086 for
[email-masked]; Sat, 31 Jan 1998 20:21:24 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id UAA17872 for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 31 Jan 1998 20:21:23 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id UAA15128
for [email-masked]; Sat, 31 Jan 1998 20:21:22 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Sat, 31 Jan 1998 20:21:22 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

770
WTXS32 PGTW 010300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- 18.8S7 122.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 122.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 19.8S8 122.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 20.4S6 121.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 20.9S1 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 21.2S5 120.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION 19.1S1  122.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AT 07 KNOTS.  THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
312330Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DRY AIR IS
BEING ENTRAINED FROM THE GREAT SANDY DESERT TO THE SOUTH AND
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER.  A SINGLE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOIST MARITIME AIR.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  SEVERAL OF OUR DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS
SUGGEST AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE COAST AND MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY THROUGH
ENTRAINMENT OF MOIST MARITIME AIR.  THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW.  THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER WILL NOW
ISSUE TWELVE-HOURLY WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES).
SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MOVE BACK OVER THE COAST AND INTENSIFY, SIX-
HOURLY WARNINGS WILL BE RESUMED.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 12 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG
011353Z3) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.