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Date:	Fri, 20 Nov 1998 15:31:21 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 07b Warning Nr 003
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

379
WTIO31 PGTW 201500
IMMEDIATE DEIVERREQ AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z5 --- NEAR 15.7N3 87.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N3 87.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 17.5N3 86.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 19.8N8 86.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 21.6N9 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 22.9N3 87.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.2N9 87.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS
FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 201130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE PREVIOUSLY ACCELERATED
FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WAS SHORT LIVED AS IT HAS SLOWED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED REGARDING THE
SYSTEM=S OVERALL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT,
HOWEVER, REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE STEERING MECHANISMS
FOR THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH TO ITS WEST. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AND THEN
BECOME NORTHWARD AFTER THE 12-HOUR PERIOD. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER THE 24-HOUR POINT AND THEN TC 07B IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. LAND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED
TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2) AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5).//

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