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Date:	Fri, 4 Sep 1998 12:52:10 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

627
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/041800Z SEP 98/051800Z SEP 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/040553 SEP 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10S1 85E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11S2 79E6. A
041517Z8 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA
OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED AT 9.5S4 78.4E9. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR AS THE AREA
OF CONVECTION IS ABOUT 46NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
WELL DEFINED AND IS STILL CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
ABATES AND ALLOWS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. SEE
REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WTXS21 PGTW
040630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/PATTERSON/GOODMAN//

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