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Date:	Fri, 6 Mar 1998 22:56:33 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

451
WTXS31 PGTW 070300

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG0171 UNCLAS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (DONALINE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- 16.5S2 069.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 069.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.7S4 071.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG0171 UNCLAS
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.8S6 072.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 19.5S5 074.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG0171 UNCLAS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 22.5S9 076.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION 16.6S3   069.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (DONALINE) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 062301Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF 061818Z4
SCATTEROMETER DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT AND ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
(DONALINE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG0171 UNCLAS
24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH. AFTER 24 HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO ITS
NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES RIDGING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND RADII ARE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM 061818Z4 SCATTEROMETER DATA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 07000Z7 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7) AND 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5).//
BT
#0171

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