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Date:	Thu, 26 Feb 1998 22:46:10 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/reissued Significant Tropical Weather Advisory For
The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

125
ABIO10 PGTW 270100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/REISSUED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/270100Z/271800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/261353Z FEB 98//
NARR/REF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING VALID 261200Z//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (MAY) HAS MOVED SOUTH OVER
LAND IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17S8 45E9 HAS MOVED FURTHER
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE ISLAND.  ACCORDINGLY,
THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.0S5 56.4E5 IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 27.0S9 59.2E6. A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS
REDEVELOPED OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THIS AREA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS
PERSISTED FOR 15 HOURS NEAR 10S1 61E7. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION THAT APPEARS
TO BE THE RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL LINEAR CONVERGENCE. NO LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
?(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE SUSPECT AREA IN 2.B.(3) TO
FAIR.
AJTWC SENDS
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/EMERY/BELCHER//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUHPSGG22640580056

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