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Date:	Sat, 24 Jan 1998 15:17:34 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Jan 98 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (wtxs22 Pgtw
241530 )
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

184
WTXS31 PGTW 242100
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 241421Z
JAN 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 241530 )
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG5957 UNCLAS
241800Z5 --- 17.1S9 121.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 121.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 17.4S2 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 17.7S5 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG5957 UNCLAS
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 18.0S9 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 18.3S2 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG5957 UNCLAS
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION 17.2S0  121.3E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 241730Z ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER, BY THE 36 HOUR
POSITION, THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION SHOULD SLOW AS IT NEARS
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S SHOULD STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG
250751Z0) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 241421Z JAN 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG5957 UNCLAS
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 241530 ). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (LES) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#5957

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