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Date:	Thu, 3 Dec 1998 01:43:26 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

419
ABIO10 PGTW 030400 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/030400Z/031800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/020751Z DEC 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION OFF THE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COAST
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2 119.2E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S0
118.7E7 AND HAS BECOME THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (REF A). SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1000MB. SATELLITE
INFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS THIS CIRCULATION DEVELOPED ALONG THE
TAILEND OF A SHEARLINE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS
IT IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 021026Z1
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDICATED A CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION
WRAPPING ABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER. 200MB ANALYSIS AND
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD. SEE REF A (WTXS21 020800Z) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5S2 89E7 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 9S9 88E6. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SLIGHT
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: CHANGED AREA 2.B.(2) FROM POOR TO
FAIR POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/JOHNSON/HALL/BACON//

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