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Date:	Thu, 19 Mar 1998 09:56:30 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 28s (fiona) Warning Nr 006
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

996
WTXS31 PGTW 191500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- 19.9S9 58.9E2

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG5744 UNCLAS
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 58.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 20.2S4 58.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 20.8S0 57.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG5744 UNCLAS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 21.8S1 57.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION 20.0S2 58.7E0.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE
28S (FIONA) IS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191100Z
VISIBLE IMAGERY RECEIVED FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTRAL
WHICH INDICATED THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
100NM TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  CONTINUITY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS USED FOR THE WARNING INTENSITY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CUMULOFORM CLOUDS HAS REMAINED CONSTANT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS.  ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IS APPROACHING THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG5744 UNCLAS
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WEST THROUGH
THE 12-HOUR PERIOD AS IT IS STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE EAST.  AFTERWARDS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  DESPITE THE STRONG WIND SHEAR ACTING
ON THIS SYSTEM, THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONSTANT
THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION IN THE
LOW-LEVELS.  AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE
36-HOUR PERIOD.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3
IS 12 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9) AND
201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2).  REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#5744

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