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Date:	Sun, 6 Dec 1998 02:29:51 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06s Warning Nr 003
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

589
WTXS32 PGTW 060900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 003
02 AIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 9.6S5 130.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 9.6S5 130.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 9.8S7 130.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 10.2S3 129.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 10.6S7 129.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 11.1S3 128.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 09.6S5 130.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 2
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 060530Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF AUSTRALIA. HOWEVER, CURRENT
ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT ALTHOUGH TC 06S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE, THE ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVELCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS BROAD IN NATURE.
SINCE THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE LLCC LOCATION WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY,
IT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO AS WE GO INTO NIGHTFALL AND
HAVE TO RELY ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, THE UW-CIMMS
060000Z6 UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CHARTS INDICATE TC 06S IS
SITUATED UNDER AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
HENCE, TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE WARM WATERS NORTH
OF AUSTRALIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG
061953Z4) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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