

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id MAA65426;
Thu, 12 Nov 1998 12:47:27 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 10699328 for
[email-masked]; Thu, 12 Nov 1998 12:47:15 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id MAA15126 for
<[email-masked]>; Thu, 12 Nov 1998 12:46:37 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id LAA22551
for [email-masked]; Thu, 12 Nov 1998 11:36:55 -0600 (CST)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Thu, 12 Nov 1998 11:36:55 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

735
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/121800Z/131800Z NOV 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/112129Z NOV 98//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/121351Z NOV 98//
NARR/REF A, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B, TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N2 63E9
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12N3 59E4 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. THIS PERSISTENT, ORGANIZED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THIS CONVECTION REMAINS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR.
121200Z6 SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW WESTERLIES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS SOUTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB.  THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 112130) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL NEAR
12N3 88E6 AND HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA AND
A 120007Z0 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDICATE A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. MODERATE SHEAR, HOWEVER, EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY DISORGANIZED. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 121200Z6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19S0 91E0 AND WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31
PGTW 121500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/SMITH/HATFIELD/JONES//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.