

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id NAA22508;
Tue, 1 Dec 1998 13:18:04 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 10881475 for
[email-masked]; Tue, 1 Dec 1998 13:18:03 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id NAA13722 for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 1 Dec 1998 13:17:48 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id NAA13916
for [email-masked]; Tue, 1 Dec 1998 13:17:39 -0600 (CST)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Tue, 1 Dec 1998 13:17:39 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

681
ABIO10 PGTW 011800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/011800Z DEC 98/021800Z DEC 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8S8 95E4 IS
NOW NEAR 7S7 87E5. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE HAS PERSISTED, BUT HAS BEGUN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS (011200Z4) INDICATES THIS CONVECTION LIES
WITHIN A BROAD TROUGHING AREA. 200MB ANALYSIS AND UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OFF THE NORTHWEST
AUSTRALIAN COAST NEAR 14S5 120E3 FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE AREA.
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THIS CIRCULATION MAY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE TAILEND OF A SHEARLINE. 200MB ANALYSIS AND UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED 7N7 TO 7S7 IN PARA
2.B.(1) AND 14N5 TO 14S5 IN PARA 2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/MCCULLOCH/BALDINGER/JACKSON//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.