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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Immediate Delivery Req To Amconsul Calcutta And
Amembassy Dhaka
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

948
WTIO31 PGTW 210300 COR
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- NEAR 16.6N3 087.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N3 087.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 17.4N2 087.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 18.4N3 087.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 19.5N5 086.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 20.5N7 086.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.8N5  087.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
3 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
202330Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATION. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 202330Z0 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
55 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS SLOWED IN ITS FORWARD MOTION
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
HOWEVER, SHOWS THIS RIDGE WEAKENING AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM DAWN (22W) MOVES WESTWARD OVER MYANMAR WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A WEAKENED STEERING FLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THIS WEAK STEERING FLOW.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF INDIA AFTER THE 36-HOUR TRACK POSITION. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B IS EXPERIENCING SOME
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT PRESENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ONLY
SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. A LOW PROBABILITY
SCENARIO IS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B TO BEGIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AFTER THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. ANIMATED WATER VAP0R
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A REBUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SYSTEM=S NORTHWEST WHICH MAY RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT
AFTER THE 24-HOUR TRACK POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210000Z3 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. JUSTIFICATION:TO CORRECT NEXT WARNING TIMES.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5), AND 220300Z7
(DTG 220153Z3).//

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