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Status: O

408
WTXS31 PGTW 070300

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG9721 UNCLAS
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- 11.1S3 91.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S3 91.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 11.6S8 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG9721 UNCLAS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 12.3S6 92.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 13.2S6 93.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 14.2S7 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG9721 UNCLAS
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION 11.2S4 91.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ITS LOW-LEVEL
ORGANIZATION IN SPITE OF CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 070130Z VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR ABOUT

24 HOURS BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING
LOCATED TO ITS WEST. MODERATE INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND ORGANIZE AT MID- AND UPPER-
LEVELS. INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE HINDERED BY INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING

SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 060759Z7 OCT 98
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 060800). NEXT WARNINGS

AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7) AND 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5).//
BT
#9721

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