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Date:	Wed, 27 May 1998 16:46:05 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

483
ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/271800Z/281800Z MAY 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
60E6 HAS RELOCATED NEAR 15S6 57E2. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGER
Y
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRAVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARD A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO ITS SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION IS ENTERING AN AREA
OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WOULD MAKE DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DIFFICULT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF SUMATRA AT
8S8 94E3. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA
OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR LINE FROM THE FRONT MOVING
OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1012 MB.  THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN TH
E
NEXT 24 HRS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SULLINS/SCHIBER/JOHNSON/TIRSCHEL//

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