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Date:	Mon, 2 Feb 1998 13:08:03 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

357
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/021800ZFEB98/031800Z FEB 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GUAM/020153ZFEB98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUT INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1)  AT 020000Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WAS LOCATED
AT 21.3S6 123.1E7, MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINE
D WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND IS NO LONGER CO
NSIDERED A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) F
INAL
WARNING NUMBER 23 (WTXS32 PGTW 020300)) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2)  NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS NEAR 18S9 105E6 HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW-LE
VEL
CIRCULATION EXISTS; HOWEVER NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THIS ARE
A OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE CIRCULATION IS IN AN AREA WITH STRON
G VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 KNOTS WIT
H GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THI
S AREA IS
NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOP
MENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16S8 36E6 IS NO
W LOCATED
NEAR 20S 36E. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, THIS AREA IS EXP
ERIENCING
MODERATE WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM
HAS MOVED
OUT OVER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA MORE FAVORABLE FO
R
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 KNOTS WIT
H GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.  TH
E POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS FAIR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED 11S2 65E1 HAS BECOME DISORGANIZ
ED AND THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED. MAXIMUM SU
STAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM S
EA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERE
D SUSPECT
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: HILDEBRAND/HATFIELD/JONES//

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