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Date:	Mon, 14 Dec 1998 09:15:52 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

810
WTIO31 PGTW 141500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 13.4N8 66.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N8 66.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.3N8 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 15.3N9 65.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 16.3N0 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 17.1N9 62.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 18.0N9 57.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.6N0   66.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141101Z8
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 08A IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO GAIN LATITUDE, THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WILL START TO
PROVIDE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GAIN A CORRESPONDINGLY LARGER WESTWARD TRACK
COMPONENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z0 IS 20 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1), 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3),
150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9) AND 151500Z2 (DTG 151351Z6).//

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