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Date:	Sun, 1 Feb 1998 08:14:39 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

987
WTXS32 PGTW 011500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- 20.4S6 122.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG6003 UNCLAS
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 122.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 21.6S9 121.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 22.6S0 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG6003 UNCLAS
030000Z3 --- 23.2S7 122.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION 20.7S9 122.1E6
AMIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(LES) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND
OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESERT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND
IT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN THAT
SUGGESTS A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH
THROUGH 24 HOURS WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, DRY AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN
AND WIND SHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW 35 KNOTS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5
(DTG 020153Z1) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021353Z4).//

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG6003 UNCLAS
BT
#6003

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