

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id PAA34980;
Tue, 27 Jan 1998 15:16:40 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 7608446 for
[email-masked]; Tue, 27 Jan 1998 15:16:05 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id PAA19354 for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 27 Jan 1998 15:11:59 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id PAA04848
for [email-masked]; Tue, 27 Jan 1998 15:11:48 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Tue, 27 Jan 1998 15:11:48 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

977
WTXS31 PGTW 272100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- 19.2S2 114.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG5499 UNCLAS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 114.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 19.2S2 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG5499 UNCLAS
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.3S3 111.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.4S4 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG5499 UNCLAS
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 19.4S4 108.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 19.4S4 106.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG5499 UNCLAS
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION 19.2S2 114.5E1
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
15S (TIFFANY) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AND WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF RADAR DATA FROM DAMPIER (WMO 94308) AND
271730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SHEAR FROM THE WEST WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED. TC 15S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WEST THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z8 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7),
280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3), 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0) AND 282100Z3
(DTG 281951Z6).//

PAGE 06 RUHPSGG5499 UNCLAS
BT
#5499

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.