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Date:	Thu, 8 Oct 1998 13:13:21 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: O

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

357
ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081800Z/091800Z OCT 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST/080029Z OCT 98//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST/081355Z OCT 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14N5 69E5 IS
NOW A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 13N4 70E7. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, BUT HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AND WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY (081422Z7) AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION AROUND THE OUTER EDGES.
SHIP OBSERVATIONS (080600Z4) REPORTED 30 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS STRONGEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATE
MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW IN THE AREA.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD. THIS SUSPECT AREA IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (TCFA) SEE REFERENCE A FOR TCFA DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 081200Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (TC 03S)WAS LOCATED AT
15.1S7 095.3E7, MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 9 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48
HOURS. SEE REF B FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/MCCULLOCH/TRETHEWEY//

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