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Date:	Sat, 14 Mar 1998 13:10:38 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

282
ABIO10 PGTW 141800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/141800Z/151800Z MAR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/141351Z MAR 98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1)AT 141200Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WAS LOCATED
AT 21.4S7 080.8E6 AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WARNING NR6 (WTXS32
PGTW 141500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 065E1 I
S
NOW LOCATED NEAR 16S7 65E1.  141319Z9 MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DEEP MID-LEVEL CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 13S4 054E9.  141103Z0
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 8 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CIRCULATION.  ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN OVE
R
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: LOCATION POOR 2.B.(2)
FORECAST TEAM: HILDEBRAND/LUNSFORD/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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