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Date:	Sat, 14 Feb 1998 11:43:29 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

372
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/141800Z/151800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 141351Z FEB 98//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 141355Z FEB 98//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 140553Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 141200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WAS
LOCATED AT 40.7S1 83.5E6, MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 48 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) FINAL
WARNING NR 18 (WTXS31 PGTW 141500)) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 141200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WAS LOCATED
AT 18.1S0 101.6E8, MOVING WEST AT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. SEE
REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 15 (WTXS33 PGTW
141500)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18S9
44E8 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF
C (WTXS21 PGTW 130600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15S6
AND 70E7 REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY. CONVECTION HAS FLUCTUATED IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 5 HOURS. THE LIMITED SYNOPTIC DATA IN THE REGION IMPLIES A
CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH LOW PRESSURES CORRESPONDS TO THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: HILDEBRAND/PATTERSON/BOYD//

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