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Date:	Fri, 13 Feb 1998 19:50:01 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

291
WTXS33 PGTW 140300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- 17.9S7 104.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 104.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 18.1S0 101.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 18.4S3 099.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 18.7S6 096.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 19.1S1 094.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 19.5S5 089.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION 18.0S9  103.5E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 132330Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIND RADII ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM
131559Z4 MICROWAVE DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND IS
EXPERIENCING LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES IN A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING ADVECTED
TOWARD THE WEST BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 36 HOURS AND ALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(VICTOR) TO MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z4 (DTG 140755Z2), 141500Z1 (DTG 141355Z9), 142100Z8 (DTG
141955Z5) AND 150300Z9 (DTG 150155Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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