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Date:	Mon, 8 Jun 1998 03:27:19 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

592
WTIO31 PGTW 080900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- 18.6N5 67.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N5 67.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 20.6N8 67.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 22.4N8 67.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 24.1N7 69.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 25.9N6 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION 19.1N1   67.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND IS TRACKING NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON ANALYSIS OF 080600Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 080408Z0 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS WHICH REVEALED AN
ELLIPTICAL EYE.  A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGER PASSES DURING
THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS INDICATED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A HAS
PEAKED IN INTENSITY.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT MOVES ABOVE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.  THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REACH LAND BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HOUR POSITIONS.
CURRENTLY, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A HAS BECOME THE MOST INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ARABIAN SEA IN AT LEAST 15 YEARS.  THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AT THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS IT
INTERACTS WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.  ONCE ON LAND THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION.  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 22 FEET.  REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4),
090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2).//

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