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Date:	Thu, 29 Jan 1998 07:36:52 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

067
WTXS32 PGTW 291500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- 14.5S0 127.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 127.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 14.6S1 127.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 14.8S3 126.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 15.1S7 125.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 15.6S2 123.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 16.5S2 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION 14.5S0  127.5E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SHIP REPORT OF 40 KNOTS LOCATED AT
13.6S0 127.6E6. THE CURRENT WIND RADIUS WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP REPORT, AND OTHER SHIP OBSERVATIONS
IN THE NEARBY REGION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND, AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND WEAK
SYNOPTIC STEERING FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE
INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN FOR THAT TIME PERIOD SINCE IT IS OVER
LAND. BY 36 HOURS, MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY ONCE MORE AS LAND INTERACTION DECREASES
AND THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9), 300300Z6 (DTG
300153Z2), 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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