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Date:	Fri, 30 Jan 1998 08:14:52 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

749
WTXS32 PGTW 301500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- 16.0S7 124.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG9276 UNCLASS
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 124.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 16.7S4 123.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 17.5S3 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 18.3S2 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG9276 UNCLASS
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 19.0S0 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 20.6S8 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG9276 UNCLASS
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION 16.2S9  124.4E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
301100Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN
RESPONSE TO A CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
INTENSIFYING AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE OPEN
WATER. HOWEVER, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THE 72 HOUR
POSITION SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATER IS 13 FEET AT
301200Z. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1), 310300Z7 (DTG
310153Z3), 310900Z3 (DTG 310753Z9) AND 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6).

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG9276 UNCLASS
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#9276

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