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Date:	Sat, 11 Apr 1998 08:43:59 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gemma) Warning Nr 010
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

419
WTXS31 PGTW 111500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- 15.4S0 76.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 76.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 15.5S1 77.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 16.1S8 78.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 17.1S9 78.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 18.0S9 77.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION 15.4S0   76.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) HAS BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD AT 6
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
111130Z7 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 111130Z7 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THIS TIME AND IS TRACKING
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 700 MB NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE 12 HOUR POSITION AND THEN BEGIN
TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD BY 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING FROM
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE CONTINUES.  BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION,
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE STEERING FLOW AS
THE SYSTEM=S UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION IS SHEARED AWAY.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
EXPERIENCES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0) AND 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3).//

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