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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

241
ABIO10 PGTW 060200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/060200Z/061800Z NOV 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N3 82E0
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12N3 81E9. THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 10 HOURS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 100NM
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA.  SYNOPTIC DATA FROM COASTAL
REPORTING STATIONS CONCUR WITH THE SATELLITE POSITION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 9S9 92E1 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CONVECTION EXIST WITHIN A
REGION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGHING.  WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS SHOW
AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT.  HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
MODERATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3.  JUSTIFICATION FOR RE-ISSUE: UPGRADE SUSPECT AREA 1.B.(1)
FORECAST TEAM: HILDEBRAND/JOHNSON/HALL//

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