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Date:	Mon, 14 Dec 1998 13:15:25 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

346
WTXS32 PGTW 142100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 20.2S4 119.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 119.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 20.8S0 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.6S9 116.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 22.5S9 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 23.2S7 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5  118.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 9 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 141730Z6
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(THELMA) HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM=S DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEING CARRIED SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD INITIALLY, THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD, IN THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO AN INCREASING WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 (DTG
150753Z1) AND 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4).//

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