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Date:	Fri, 4 Dec 1998 04:50:44 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is
Possible Within
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

868
WTXS21 PGTW 041000
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 275 NM RADIUS OF 8.8S6 133.8E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040530Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9S7 133.7E4.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE ARAFURA SEA HAS BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 040108Z3 SCATTEROMETER
PASS AND 040000Z4 SYNOPTIC SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS OF
15 KNOTS AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF
THE DISTURBANCE. BOTH 200 MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 051000Z6.//

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