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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 07b Warning Nr 005
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

342
WTIO31 PGTW 211500
IMMEDIE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVENOYOPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z6 --- NR 1 .3NWW IYMOE3
OOVEHENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREEEAT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 0+0 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
00                    115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 18.3N2 86.9E3
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 19.5N5 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT GUSTS 085 ;(5
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICICLE
00                OVER WATER
0      000           035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
12# NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 20.5N7 86.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 $+</ 04 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 21.4N7 86.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR HM 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 22.3N7 86.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIIATD AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.6N5 86.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED
INFRARED
ND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THE WRNING INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON INFRARED SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
65 KNOTS. THE PRESENT TRACK SUGGESTS TC 07B HAS GAINED SPEED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AMOUNTLMF THE UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST, GIVING TC 07B AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE. HENCE,
PART OF THE APPARDVT ACCELERATION MAY BE DE TO THE ELONGATION
PROCESS DEPICTED BY THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMES HARDER TO TRACK USING INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH=
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD AFTER MAKING LANDFALL BY THE 24 HOUR
FORECASTHMSITION. ANIMATED WATERIVAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OF TC 0B, WHICH MAY CAUSE THE SLIGHT
NORTHWARD TURN IN THE TRACK. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT APPROCHES THE EAST COAST OF INDIA.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
ON THE EAST COAST OF INDIA. MAXIMUPGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211200Z6 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3) AND 221500Z0
(DTG 221353Z6).//

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