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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/amended Significant Tropical Weather Advisory For
The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

451
ABIO10 PGTW 241800 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/AMENDED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/241800Z/251800ZFEB98//
RMKS/1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
REMAINS
NEAR 17.2S0 41.5E0 AND HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN THE PAST
06 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION
OVER A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
GOOD TO
THE NORTH AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED
AT 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA
PREVIOUSLY NEAR
07S7 71E8 REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY.  ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT BUT LOOSELY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION.
NO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY,
HOWEVER SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM DIEGO GARCIA (WMO
NUMBER 61967)
INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS NEAR 20.3S5
54.4E3 HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAL EXTENT IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS.  ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH NO APPARENT SURFACE CIRCULATION.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM
REUNION (STATION IDENTIFIER  FMEE) INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
(5) REASON FOR AMENDMENT IS DEVELOPMENT OF AREA IN
PARA (3).
AJTWC SENDS.
FORECAST TEAM: HILL/TANNAHILL/BILLY//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUHPSGG23380560158

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