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Date:	Wed, 11 Nov 1998 08:23:11 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

466
WTXS31 PGTW 111500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 18.3S2 91.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 91.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.5S5 91.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.5S7 90.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 21.8S1 90.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 23.2S7 90.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 91.5E5.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(ALISON) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 111130Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
TOWARDS THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111200Z5 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0) AND
121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3).//

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