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From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Rmks/
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Status: U

217
WTIO21 PGTW 130630 COR
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 130621Z NOV 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 11.0N2 87.1E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N7 87.2E7.  THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
4. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE AREA
HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IN ADDITION,
130308Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 140630Z4.
6. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGE POSITION OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AND REMOVE REFERENCE TO 00 KNOTS IN PARAGRAPH 3//

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