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Date:	Sat, 17 Jan 1998 19:17:43 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s Warning Nr 001a Corrected
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

182
WTXS31 PGTW 180300 COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- 17.0S8 38.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 236 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG9735 UNCLAS
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 38.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 18.4S3 37.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 219 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 20.1S3 36.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 203 DEG/ 09 KTS
---

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG9735 UNCLAS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 21.8S1 36.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 23.4S9 36.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION 17.4S2 38.2E3
AS OF 172230Z5, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED IN THE
ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE OF MOZAMBIQUE, APPROXIMATELY 30NM
INLAND FROM THE COAST, AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG9735 UNCLAS
SOUTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM 172230Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURROUNDING
SYNOPTIC DATA. PAST MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS SUGGESTS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND BE LOCATED
OVER WATER. SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA AND NUMEROUS SHIP
REPORTS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120NM OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER. THIS DATA ALSO SUGGESTS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER WATER IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS
SYSTEM, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WHEN IT
IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS IT IS
INFLUENCED BY ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER
WATER AND INTERACTION WITH LAND DIMINISHES. AT THE 48
HOUR PERIOD, TC 13S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 13 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION: INCREASE WARNING PERIODICITY. REFER TO

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG9735 UNCLAS
WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z), 181500Z5 (DTG
181353Z1), 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z) AND 190300Z3 (DTG
190153Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (KATRINA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#9735

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