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Date:	Mon, 6 Apr 1998 13:30:38 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

771
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/061800Z/071800Z APR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/060551Z APR 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 72E9 IS
THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF A (WTXS21
PGTW)
FOR DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CY
CLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN NEAR 16.5S2 77.1E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0S8 76.1E4. AN
IMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION CONCENT
RATED
IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADR
ANTS.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO ITS WE
ST
MENTIONED IN 2.B.(1) ABOVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT W
ITHIN
24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR 11S2 51
E6 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10S1 50E5. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 06120
0Z9 SHIP
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BR
OAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. NO DISCRETE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS APP
ARENT IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRA
NTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR

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