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Date:	Fri, 5 Jun 1998 21:13:05 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 03a Warning Nr 008
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

970
WTIO31 PGTW 060300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- 12.3N6 069.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N6 069.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 12.7N0 068.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 13.1N5 068.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 13.5N9 067.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 14.0N5 067.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.0N6 067.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION 12.4N7   069.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
052237Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF CI3.5 (55 KNOTS). TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD
THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE FORECAST FOR TC
03A IS TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMUM VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9),
061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6), 062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2) AND 070300Z0
(DTG 070151Z4).//

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