

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id MAA40554;
Fri, 25 Dec 1998 12:07:42 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 11013361 for
[email-masked]; Fri, 25 Dec 1998 12:07:33 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id MAA41044 for
<[email-masked]>; Fri, 25 Dec 1998 12:07:32 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id MAA26497
for [email-masked]; Fri, 25 Dec 1998 12:07:31 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Fri, 25 Dec 1998 12:07:31 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 10s Warning Nr 002
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 251500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- NEAR 17.0S8 97.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 97.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 17.3S1 95.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 17.6S4 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.1S0 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 18.8S7 90.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 97.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TC10S) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 25/1130Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KT) AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF TC10S HAS IMPROVED BUT THE
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEING DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER ON
THE SOUTH SIDE WHICH IS ACTING TO DECREASE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO TC10S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATER
(27C SST). AS A RESULT, LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS EVEN THOUGH TC10S IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND UNDERNEATH A FAVORABLE
200 MB RIDGE AXIS. OWING TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...
TC10S IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED MORE BY THE EASTERLY LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL WIND FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT LIES ALONG 35S LATITUDE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG 260151Z5) AND 261500Z4 (DTG
261351Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (CORA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.