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Date:	Thu, 5 Mar 1998 12:28:53 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

930
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/051800Z/061800Z MAR 98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4  100E
1 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 13S4  99E1. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A MI
CROWAVE
IMAGER PASS AT 051436Z9 INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATI0N OF
THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER,
WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAI
R TO GOOD
IN ALL QUADRANTS. THIS MAY IMPLY THAT CONVECTION MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 093E2
IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 09S9 92E1. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STEADILY DECREASED OVER THE PAST
12 TO 16
HOURS. THE MOST RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051436Z9 MICR
OWAVE
IMAGER PASS SHOWS ONLY AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH N
O ACTIVE
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFIC
ANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 13S4 62E8 IS NOW NEAR 15S6 63
E9.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVEC
TION
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA WITH FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MA
XIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PR
ESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPME
NT WITH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/ HATFIELD/JONES//

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