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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Rmks/
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Status: RO

784
WTXS22 PGTW 090400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 090353Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S3 124.7E4 TO 16.0S7
118.3E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 090100Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9 123.9E5. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE DISTURBANCE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS. TWO SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY PASSES FROM 082120Z3 AND 090000Z9 INDICATED THAT
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP INTO A CURVED BAND. YESTERDAY,
25 TO 29 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE MEASURED AS THIS SYSTEM PASSED
OVER TROUGHTON ISLAND (WMO 94102). THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 100400Z5.//

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