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Date:	Wed, 8 Apr 1998 12:59:54 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

512
ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/081800Z/091800Z APR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/081351Z APR 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 4N4 75E2 HAS
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 081200Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WAS LOCATED
AT 14.5S0 71.4E2 MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 60 KNOTS.  SEE REF A, (TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 32S (GEMMA)
WARNING NR 04 (WTXS31 PGTW 081500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH OF MADAGASCAR
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 48E2 IS NOW NEAR 7S7 48E2.  A
080654Z3 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION.  UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA-
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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