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Date:	Thu, 17 Dec 1998 11:28:53 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/171800Z/181800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/171357Z DEC 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 171200Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N5
56.3E4, MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 171500) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 10S1 98E7 REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
INTERMITTENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CONVECTION IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG SHEAR TO ITS
SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 10S1 128E1. THIS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR 18 HOURS AND IS LOCATED WITHIN AN
AREA OF TROUGHING BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND A SCATTEROMETER PASS.
NO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED, HOWEVER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA SURFACE
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/SANCHEZ/BACON//

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