

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id UAA07590;
Wed, 2 Dec 1998 20:34:43 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 10902673 for
[email-masked]; Wed, 2 Dec 1998 20:34:42 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id UAA14746 for
<[email-masked]>; Wed, 2 Dec 1998 20:34:41 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id UAA17655
for [email-masked]; Wed, 2 Dec 1998 20:34:40 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Wed, 2 Dec 1998 20:34:40 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

726
WTXS31 PGTW 030300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 17.2S0 118.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 118.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 18.5S4 117.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 19.8S8 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 21.4S7 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 23.2S7 116.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 26.1S9 119.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3  118.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S HAS CONTINUED TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AT 8 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 022330Z0 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A SUPPORTING
SHIP REPORT. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE
24 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 05S BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 05S IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. AS TC 05S CONTINUES ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNTIL MAKING
LANDFALL PRIOR TO THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 (DTG
030751Z6), 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3), 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9) AND
040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.