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Date:	Wed, 7 Oct 1998 12:40:10 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: O

159
ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071800Z/081800Z OCT 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST/071355Z OCT 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 071200Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WAS LOCATED AT 12.0S3
093.9E1, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13N4 072E9
IS NOW NEAR 14N5 069E5. THIS AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS NOT
INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SHEAR OCCURRING OVER THE
SYSTEM. WIND SHEAR CHARTS FORECAST THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO LESSEN
OVER THE SYSTEM AFTER 24 HOURS AND SO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT EXISTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N3 086E4
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12N3 084E2. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A
BROAD CIRCULATION REMAINS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA IS
UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A HIGH
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS NO POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 091E0 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 094E3 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING. SEE PARAGRAPH 1.A.(1) FOR DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PATLA/HATFIELD/HALL//

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