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Date:	Thu, 30 Apr 1998 02:57:44 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

807
ABIO10 PGTW 300800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/300800Z/301800Z APR 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5S
85E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4S 82E. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ORGANIZED BUT HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12S 98E. THIS
BROAD REGION OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST 10 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 291641Z3 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS POOR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: DOWNGRADE SUSPECT AREA 2.B.(1) TO POOR AND
ADD SUSPECT AREA  2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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