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Date:	Sat, 21 Nov 1998 22:00:03 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 07b Warning Nr 006
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

069
WTIO31 PGTW 220300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVEHTROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z4 --- NEAR 20.3N5 087.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ONCENTER
LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
-                       090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N5 087.4E9
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 21.7N0 087.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 23.0N5 088.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36,HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 24.1N7 089.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 25.1N8 089.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.7N9   087.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTHWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 212330Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 212345Z7 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 212330Z1 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
75 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE STEERING
FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS RIDGE IS REBUILDING. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE THE DOMINANT STEERING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL ON INDIA BY THE 12-HOUR TRACK POSITION. A MAJOR PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM;S CONVECTION IS ALREADY OVER LAND. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS UNTIL
LANDFALL. THEN, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON CLOUD SIGNATURE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z4 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z0 (DTG 221353;+6) AND 230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4).//

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