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Date:	Sun, 17 May 1998 10:52:37 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Gu/170721z May 98//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

198
WTIO21 PGTW 171600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 171551Z MAY 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/170721Z MAY 98//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW
170730)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA, AMEMBASSY
DHAKA, AND AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N7 83.8E9 TO 17.5N3 91.6E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171258Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N5 87.4E9.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
171258Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE NORTHEASTERN CIRCULATION
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING IN THE BAY OF BENGAL HAS BECOME
MORE DOMINANT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE, CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUANCE:  RELOCATE FORMATION AREA.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 181600Z6.//

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