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Date:	Sat, 5 Dec 1998 19:38:28 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (billy) Warning Nr 014
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

199
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 20.8S0 114.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 20.8S0 114.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 21.3S6 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 21.9S2 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 22.8S2 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 114.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A 052330Z3
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
COMBINATION OF A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS
AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S
(BILLY) CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA NEAR PORT EXMOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE STEERING
INFLUENCE REMAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST, TC 05S
(BILLY) IS IN AN AREA WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL STEERING, WHICH ACCOUNTS
FOR ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. IN ADDITION, THE 0512000Z8 UW-CIMSS WATER
VAPOR/WIND SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE TC 05S (BILLY) IS UNDERGOING
MODERATE TO SEVERE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INDEED, SATELLITE
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALMOST TOTALLY
EXPOSED. SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS BLOWN AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, TC 05S (BILLY) IS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY OVER WATER.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE UNTIL IT
STRIKES LAND BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AT THAT TIME, TC 05S
(BILLY) WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9), 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6), 062100Z9
(DTG 061951Z2) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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