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Date:	Tue, 17 Feb 1998 05:56:32 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

752
ABIO10 PGTW 171200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/171200Z/171800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 170155Z FEB 98//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 170753Z FEB 98//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 170151Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 170000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WAS LOCATED
AT 21.7S0 083.0E1, MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS.  SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 22
(WTXS33 PGTW 170300)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 170600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WAS LOCATED AT
24.9S5 43.9E6, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS.  SEE REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 03 (WTXS32
PGTW 170900)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) AT 170000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WAS LOCATED AT
24.7S3 63.4E3, MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS.  SEE REF C (TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNING NR 02 (WTXS31
PGTW 170300)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 14S5 53E8.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS
AND IS LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. A 161924Z3
SCATTEROMETER PASS SUGGESTED THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THAT REGION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
INDICATED. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS BY KGWC SATELLITE
ANALYSTS INDICATES THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FORMED
NEAR THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES THE BEGINNING OF ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTING
VERY LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WAS PRESENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/EIBLING/BACON//

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