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297
WTXS21 PGTW 060800

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG6463 UNCLAS
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 060759Z OCT 98//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 310 NM RADIUS OF 12.9S2 092.5E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES
NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060530Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
10.8S9 091.9E9. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS:
THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED ITS CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS FROM WITHIN AN ELONGATED MONSOON TROUGH.
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT UPPER-
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO FIX UPON UNTIL IT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP CONSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 051644Z SCATTEROMETER
PASS AIDS IN ESTABLISHING THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND ALSO SHOWS EVIDENCE OF STRONG POLAR
INFLOW.

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG6463 UNCLAS
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 070800Z5.//
BT
#6463

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