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Date:	Tue, 29 Sep 1998 04:28:30 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 02s Warning Nr 001
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

776
WTXS31 PGTW 290900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- 9.0S9 78.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0S9 78.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 9.7S6 76.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 10.4S5 75.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 11.2S4 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 12.0S3 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 13.2S6 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION  9.2S1   78.0E5.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02S HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
8 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 290530Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, 290042Z7
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. 290000Z1 SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
GENERATED FROM A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER-
TROPOSHERIC RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH THUS MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TD 02S IS UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GREATLY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z7 IS 12
FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 290559Z
SEP 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 290600Z) NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z1), 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z7),
300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z0) AND 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z6).//

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