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Date:	Mon, 16 Feb 1998 00:27:02 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Gu/160300z Feb 98//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

903
WTXS22 PGTW 160600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 160553Z FEB 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/160300Z FEB 98//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
160251)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.5S7 40.5E9 TO
28.4S4 44.0E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 160400Z INDICATE
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.5S8 41.6E1.  THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP
SYNOPTIC REPORTS INDICATE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS
DEVELOPED EXPLOSIVELY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE OUTFLOW
HAS ASSUMED AN ANTI-CYCLONIC CHARACTER.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 170600Z4.
5. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 21.0S3 67.5E8.//

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