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Date:	Sat, 18 Apr 1998 23:16:49 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: RO

369
WTXS31 PGTW 190300 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- 10.2S3 74.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S3 74.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 10.4S5 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 10.7S8 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 11.2S4 69.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 11.8S0 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 13.4S8 64.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 10.2S3   74.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S HAS FORMED AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN INDICAN OCEAN. THE WARNING
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIME OF CI2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 34S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-HOURS THEN BEGIN
A TURN TOWEARD THE WEST-SOUTWEST. INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900 (DGT 190751Z3), 191500Z6 (DTG
191351Z0), 192100Z3 (DTG191951Z1), AND 200300Z5 (DTG
200151Z9). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 181521Z APR 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 181530) REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 35S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:  TO CORRECT FORECAST TRACK.//

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