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Date:	Sun, 7 Feb 1999 15:51:51 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 013
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

196
WTXS31 PGTW 072100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 19.1S1 108.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 ND
0),) POSIPOMPBASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
N
GG PRESENT WIND DIFTRIBUTIONCM
MAX SUSTAINED WINFL- 035 KT, GUSTS 045#(5
REPEAT POSITKQ QPIMVE2
FORECASTS:
12 HRS,0ALIF AT:
080/<A4 -- MMWS2 108.0E9
MA SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KO, GUSTS 045 KT
DUFSIPATING SPA SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
4 HRS, VALID ATW
081800Z7 --8.OS3 107.7E5
MAX SUSTAIFED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVEY WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 19.4S4 107.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTP040 KT
-DSSATEDPAS A SQGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLO
OVER WATER
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 108.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAFT
6 HOURS. THE WARFING POSITION IS DESEDION A COMBI
TIMNNOFN071730Z8
ENBWNFRAREDHQMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS (071146Z9).
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION DROM TH PRIOUS
WARNING AND EARLIER ESTIMATES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DRIFT WIND SPEEDS.

TC 18S REMAINS WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW OF THE BROADER MONSOON

TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, TC18S IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS WESTWARD UNDER THE
SYSTEM. CONTINUED SHEAR AND COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENTRAINMENT IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELGPMENT OF WJVWO CQWF IS
FORECAGHJIPMOVR ZTLRBY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 14 FDST. REFER TO
WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHTLCNFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT

JPIPEPPZ1 (DTG 080155Z9), 080900Z7 (DTG 080755Z-), 08150;Z4 (DTG
081355Z2) AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081955Z8).//

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