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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

795
ABIO10 PGTW 290000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/290000Z/291800Z JAN 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281357Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5N5 92E1
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N9 91E0. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 281200Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.8S5 89.1E8 MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE
A (WTXS31 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 17.5S3 122E5 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE AND MOVING OFF LAND INTO A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW
WITH MINIMUM SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6 96E5
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13S4 99E8 . ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE REGION IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE WIND
SHEAR FROM THE EAST AND APPEARS TO BE TRACKING IN THE WAKE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE.
OUTFLOW ALOFT APPEARS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. A 282300Z5 SYNOPTIC REPORT NEAR THE CIRCULATION
REPORT A PRESSURE OF 1003.7MB. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE, THEREFORE,
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED
TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADE 2.B.(2) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/HERRON/HOWELLS/GLASS//

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