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Date:	Sat, 13 Feb 1999 08:37:07 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

431
WTXS31 PGTW 131500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 22.5S9 38.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S9 38.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 24.2S8 38.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 26.2S0 38.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 28.2S2 39.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 30.1S4 40.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 33.9S5 44.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 22.9S3 38.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 131130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND 130730Z4 SCATTEROMETRY
BULLS-EYE PASS WITH 30 KNOT WINDS. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH A MODERATE TO
STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER
TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2), 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4), 140900Z4 (DTG
140753Z0) AND 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (RONA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

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