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Date:	Sun, 7 Feb 1999 23:50:52 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Rmks/
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

788
WTXS21 PGTW 080530
080521Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S9 164.4E5 TO 9.2S1 172.3E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080230Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S1 167.8E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR HAS FORCED MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE
DISPLACE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
BUT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST AND BUILD TOWARDS THE
CENTER. OUTFLOW APPEARS GOOD, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VERY WARM (29C),
WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AROUND 1002MB.
ACCORDINGLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 090530Z7.
//
BT
#XXXX

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