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Date:	Sun, 7 Feb 1999 10:15:50 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 012
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

279
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 18.6S5 108.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 108.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.8S7 108.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 18.9S8 107.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.8S7 105.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5  108.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING AND ESTIMATED CLOUD DRIFT WIND SPEEDS. TC 18S
HAS REMAINED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO LOW-MID
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WEAK
STEERING FLOW CAN ALLOW FOR SOME SHORT TERM ERRATIC MOVEMENTS IN
THE SYSTEMS TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY RETURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN
THE 12 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND INCREASES STEERING FLOW ON THE SYSTEM.
CONTINUED SHEAR AND COLD AIR STRATUS ENTRAINMENT IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER, FINALLY DISSIPATING COMPLETELY
BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080155Z9) AND
081500Z4 (DTG 081355Z2).//

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