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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 25s (davina) Warning Nr 023
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 112100
IMMEGIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSX,ORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TW,ICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN >EMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 23.1S6 52.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 52.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 23.5S0 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 24.1S7 51.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 24.8S4 51.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 25.7S4 50.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 52.7E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA)
HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW AND TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 2 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111700Z0 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY (75 KNOTS) IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND T4.5
(77 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS JUST SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATION
ALSO SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER TC25S BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THIS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. TC 25S (DAVINA) REMAINS
IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
FIRST 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, WE EXPECT A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK
AS TC25S BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND FALLS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVELS. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A HIGHER
WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING
OVER WATER BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 24 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8)
AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1).//

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