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Date:         Thu, 30 Sep 1999 02:47:09 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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986
ABIO10 PGTW 300800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/300800Z/301800Z SEP 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N9 67.7E0, IN
THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
ORGANIZED CONVECTION A 300312Z9 SSMI PASS INDICATES WEAK LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE WITH AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. THE REGION IS BENEATH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA IS MODERATE TO STRONG. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 6S6 60E6, SOUTHEAST
OF THE SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD LINES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY IN TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE AREA. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE REGION IS BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING
GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADD FAIR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/COUTURE/THOMAS/NEAULT//

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