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Date:	Tue, 16 Mar 1999 20:31:44 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In South Indian Ocean
To:	[email-masked]

999
WTXS32 PGTW 170300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- NEAR 15.6S2 112.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 112.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 16.7S4 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 17.7S5 107.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 18.2S1 105.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
190 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 18.6S5 102.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
200 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5  112.0E4.  TC 28S (ELAINE) IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.  OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS THE SAME, HOWEVER, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN
OFF-TIME WARNING DUE TO THE SYSTEMS RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS
BASED ON 162330 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS STHE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
(LOW VERTICAL SHEAR) ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0) AND
180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  29S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

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