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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 062100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 15.6S2 76.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 76.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.3S0 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.0S8 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.6S4 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 18.3S2 66.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 19.6S6 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 75.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY (100
KTS) AND IT=S RAGGED EYE FEATURE. ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF FIX LOCATIONS
FROM LA-REUNION, AFWA, DIEGO GARCIA, AND JTWC. THE WARNING
INTENSITY (100 KTS) IS ALSO BASED ON A COMBINATION OF INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77-102 KTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S
(DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS GENERAL TRACK. TC
25S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER RATE DUE TO THE INCREASE
IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 12 HOUR INTERVALS 070900Z6 (DTG
070753Z2) AND 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5).//

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