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Date:	Fri, 5 Feb 1999 19:51:22 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 006
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

968
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 18.8S7 111.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 111.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.9S8 109.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 19.1S1 107.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.2S2 105.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 19.3S3 103.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 19.3S3 99.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 110.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION WAS BASED ON 052330Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AS SUCH, THE INITIAL POSITION HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND FORWARD SPEED INCREASED TO REFLECT
THIS MORE CONFIDENT POSITION FIX. THE WARNING INTENSITY WAS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF 052330Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KNOTS AND A 051537Z1 MICROWAVE SCATTEROMETER
PASS. THE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 35 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING OUT
ABOUT 120NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION IS SHEARED ABOUT 90NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OUT OF THE
STRONGER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE WIND RADII WERE EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD TO REFLECT THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG
060755Z3), 061500Z2 (DTG 061355Z0), 062100Z9 (DTG 061955Z6) AND
070300Z0 (DTG 070155Z8).//

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