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Date:	Sun, 28 Feb 1999 13:12:37 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

412
ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/281800Z FEB 99/011800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351Z FEB 99/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 5N5 78E5, SOUTH
OF INDIA, AND HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION
IS EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO
HAVE AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MINIMUM SEA
SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 281200Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2S7
42.3E9 MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17S6 115E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15S6 110E2, OFF THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THIS WEAK LLCC HAS PERSISTED FOR 48 HOURS, BUT
HAS NOT DEVELOPED ANY CONVECTION. HENCE, THIS AREA IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12S3 88E6 AND
HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE AREA IS LOCATED WITHIN A
PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. SYNOPTIC DATA AND ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN
THE AREA. THE MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12.5S8 124E7,
JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COAST IN THE TIMOR SEA, AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND APPEARS TO HAVE AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/ROBERTS/THOMAS/GLASS//

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