

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id OAA04854;
Wed, 27 Jan 1999 14:52:36 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 11278296 for
[email-masked]; Wed, 27 Jan 1999 14:52:26 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id OAA39814 for
<[email-masked]>; Wed, 27 Jan 1999 14:52:16 -0600
Received: by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.2/8.9.2) id OAA18264 for
[email-masked]; Wed, 27 Jan 1999 14:52:09 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Wed, 27 Jan 1999 14:52:09 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    03 Active Tropical  Clones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

091
WTXS34 PGTW 272100
1. TROPICAL CCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL  CLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAT
WARNING POSITION:
2718008 --- NEAR 14.9S 91.9E9
#    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245DGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACURATE TO WITHIN 060 PM
POSITION BASED ON ENTER LOCATED BY SATOLITE
PRE ZPKAV MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS MF 050 KT A NDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM OUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 91.9E9
FORECASTS:
-  12 HR, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 15.5S1 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS AP KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025NM SOUTHWEST SEMIC
RCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NV SOUTHWEST SEM CIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
ALN
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 15.9S5 89.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUE TF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM STTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
-       020-NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWRE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 16.1S8 88.7E7
)< MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS
070 KT
RADIUS OF 0-0 K LINDS - 825 NM EOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
0                           020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 / 08 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 -.$(-1S8 86.4E8
MAX SUSTEINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
G   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 0-;(5-
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 15.6S2 83.5E6
MAX EUSTAINED WS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RAD US OF 035 KT WINDS- 140 NM SOMICIRC
E
100 NM ELSEWHER
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7   91.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS HE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AT 7 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 271730Z0 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS). TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DUE TO VERTICAL SHEARING ON THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL STEERING IS TENDING TO XWRECT THANQONVQOION TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTS TO Y
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AT THE MID LEVELS. THE WEAKNESS MAY PROVIDE

WEAKER BUT MORE WESTWARD STEERING FLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
9
C 15S (DAMIEN) IS FVQAST TO CONTINUE ON MORA SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE UPPER
LEVELS DRIVING THE CONVECTION. AFTER THE 12 TO 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD, TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS EXPECTED TOLORACK BACK TOWARDS THST.
THE SHEARING ON THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE MID AND LOWERH3
STEERICG FLOW TO DOMINATE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS GOOD
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, BUT MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD
INHIBIT
NY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. TC 15S (=
.83,) IS THEREFORE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT A RELATIVELY CONSTANT INTENSITY WITH SOMU
SLOW WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TOWARDS THE END OF THEH
72 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIG FICANT WAVE HE
GHT AT 271800Z IS 20
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280308Z3 (DTG 280157Z3), 2809)0Z9 (DTG 280757Z9),
281500Z6 (DTG 281357Z6) AND -2200Z3 (DTG 281957Z2). REFERLTO
TROPICA):6:)9,3  14 (PETE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  16P (NONAME)WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPEATES.
//
BT
?7592

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.