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Date:	Fri, 19 Mar 1999 20:47:57 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclones In South Indian Ocean
To:	[email-masked]

999
WTXS34 PGTW 200300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- NEAR 15.4S0 117.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 117.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 17.1S9 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 19.2S2 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 21.3S6 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 23.5S0 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 27.6S5 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4  117.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME.  TC 30S SHOULD RECURVE UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST,
AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG 200757Z1), 201500Z8 (DTG 201357Z8),
202100Z5 (DTG 201957Z4) AND 210300Z6 (DTG 210157Z6).//
BT
#0001

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