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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 010
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

110
WTXS31 PGTW 070300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 18.5S4 108.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 108.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 18.5S4 107.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.5S4 107.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 18.5S4 106.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.5S4 105.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 108.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HAS MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (35 KNOTS) ARE
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 062330Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ANALYSIS (25 KNOTS), A PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER PASS (40 KTS), AND A
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM) MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS
(061810Z6). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DIMINISHING
CONVECTION AND STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.  MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
FULLY EXPOSED AND WELL EAST OF THE CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
TC 18S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BECOME BROAD AND
ELONGATED. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST TRACK. TC
18S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
THE 48 HOUR POSITION. THE WIND RADII IS OMITTED FOR INTENSITIES OF
35 KNOTS OR LESS. EVEN SO, DATA INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 25-
30KT WINDS EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD CAUSED BY A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN TC 18S AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SOUTH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000ZZ7 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z6 (DTG 070755Z4), 071500Z3 (DTG 071355Z1), 072100Z0 (DTG
071955Z7) AND 080300Z1 (DTG 080155Z9).//

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