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Date:	Sat, 17 Apr 1999 11:38:49 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	[email-masked]
Status: O

999
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/171800Z/181800Z APR 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11N2 84E2
IN THE BAY OF BENGAL IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10N1 82E0. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION JUST OFF
THE INDIA COAST, NORTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PRESENT BENEATH THE
CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH PROVIDING 20-
30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE AREA. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE
WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
SUMATRA NEAR 11S2 90E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 90E9. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA SUPPORTS A LLCC
WITHIN THE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DIFLUENCE
WITH THE 200MB RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 7S7 50E5 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED A BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION IN THE CONVECTION, BUT THE AREA
HAS REMAINED DISORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8 102.5E8
AND HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 10 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WESTWARD PROPAGATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MINIMAL BUT INCREASING CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/COX/JOHNSON/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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