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Date:	Tue, 9 Feb 1999 01:04:02 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 090521z Feb 99//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

893
WTXS21 PGTW 090530
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
090521Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080521Z FEB 99//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 080530)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 190 NM RADIUS OF 11.4S6 168.2E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 090230Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 168.8E3.  THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 090330Z5 ANIMATED VISUAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. A BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD HAS OBSCURED THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAKING FIXING THIS SYSTEM DIFFICULT.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR HAS FORCED MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE
DISPLACED TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION. OUTFLOW
APPEARS GOOD, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM (29C), WITH ESTIMATED MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AROUND 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 100530Z9.//

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