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Date:	Sun, 14 Feb 1999 08:57:50 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

903
WTXS31 PGTW 141500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 22.8S2 39.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S2 39.6E8
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 22.2S6 40.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 22.0S4 39.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 22.3S7 38.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 22.4S8 37.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUEF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 22.5S9 34.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 22.7S1 39.8E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 141130Z0
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS AND
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AS THE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
ARE VARIED. THIS FORECAST MAKES A BREAK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY OF TC 21S RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST=
NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING TROUGH SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS XPECTETO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE A WESTWARD
STEERING INFLUENCE OVER TC 21S. HENCE, OUR NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS
TC 21S TRAVELLING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN
TURNING MORE WESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PONTA SAO
SEBASTIAO, MOZAMBIQUE IN PROXIMATELY 60 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 60 HOURS, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER IT, ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THEN, TC
21S SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8
(DTG 141953Z3), 150300Z9 :DTG 150153ZTLN QTPOPPZ5 (DTG 150753Z1)
AND 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8). REFER TO TRO CALNLONE 19P (ELLA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

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