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Date:	Thu, 28 Jan 1999 15:06:23 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 017
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

389
WTXS31 PGTW 282100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 17.0S8 87.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 87.8E3
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 17.4S2 85.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 17.6S4 83.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 17.6S4 81.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 17.5S3 78.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.2S0 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 ;(5
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REMARKS:
282100W3 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9   87.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED TOL
RDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BD
ON 281730Z1 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITYSTIMATES OF T3.0
AND T3.5 (45 AND 55 KNOTS). TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TM MOVE
WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LAST FEW AVAILABLE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE REGION
INDICTED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS STILL FULLY EXPOSED, AND
THAT THE SYSTEO OEY BE BEGI

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