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Date:	Tue, 2 Mar 1999 04:09:55 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

265
WTXS32 PGTW 020900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNING NR 002A RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 9.6S5 89.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S5 89.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 9.5S4 88.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 9.8S7 88.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 10.4S5 86.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 10.8S9 85.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR  9.6S5 89.4E1.  RELOCATED
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS
RELOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALLOWED FOR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
BE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. THE WARNING
LOCATION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.0 (30KNOTS). TC 25S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
WITH A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND THROUGHOUT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR WITH FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP DURING THE INITIAL 12
HOURS, THEN INTENSIFY CLIMATOLOGICALLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE
SIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH SOME ADJUSTEMTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0) AND 030900Z2 (DTG
030753Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001

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