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Date:	Fri, 5 Mar 1999 02:18:32 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 050900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 13.5S9 83.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 83.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 13.9S3 80.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 14.4S9 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 14.9S4 75.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.4S0 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 82.6E6.  RELOCATED
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN EYE IS FORMING AND THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PREVIOUSLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT HAS WEAKENED. DESPITE RECENT WARMING OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, TC 25S HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION AND IS AT TYPHOON INTENSITY. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 050530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND T4.0 (65 KNOTS). NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECREASE ITS TRANSLATIONAL SPEED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ALL DYNAMIC AND THE MAJORITY OF STATISTICAL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW INCREASES IN ORGANIZATION AND EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CEASES. WIND RADII ARE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED OUTWARD DUE TO VISIBLE SATELLITE ANALYSIS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051953Z3) AND 060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1).//
BT
#0008

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