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Date:	Sat, 6 Mar 1999 02:07:28 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 060900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 15.0S6 78.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 78.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.4S0 76.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.8S4 73.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.3S0 70.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.0S8 68.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 18.5S4 62.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 77.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY DESPITE A WARMING OF THE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE EYE REMAINS MOSTLY
OBSCURED DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUD, HOWEVER 052357Z2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTIVE EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS SYMMETRICAL. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 050530Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AUGMENTED
BY EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN
THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER APPROACHING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY.
WIND RADII ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4), 070300Z0 (DTG
070153Z6) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2).//
BT
#0001

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