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Date:	Mon, 1 Feb 1999 01:24:00 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/010353z Feb
99//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

763
WTIO21 PGTW 010600
010553Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010353Z FEB 99//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW
010400)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY
DHAKA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUGHN
MADRAS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N0 89.3E0 TO 7.5N2 83.3E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1N9 88.5E1.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
4. REMARK
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS
OVER THIS DISTURBANCE. A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER CONTINUES TO GENERATE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. IF
VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE IN AN AREA FAVORABLE

TO FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THE SQUALLY WEATHER. TCFA REISSUED IN
ORDER TO CHANGE FORMATION AREA DUE TO INCREASED CONFIDNENCE IN
CENTER POSITION. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IS DUE TO AVAILABLITY OF
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 311630Z4 SCATTEROMETRY PASS DIRECTLY OVER
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 020600Z8.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCC16290320613

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