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Date:	Mon, 29 Mar 1999 07:49:26 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s (frederic) Warning Nr 011
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 291500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- NEAR 16.6S3 101.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 101.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 17.2S0 100.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 17.7S5 98.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 18.2S1 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 18.6S5 94.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5  101.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS SOUTH OF JAVA. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 291130Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
KNOTS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S HAS  ORGANIZED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAY HAVE DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE. TC 31S IS
FORCAST TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. UW-CIMSS
PRODUCTS SHOW THE SYSTEM TO BE TRACKING IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR RECENT RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN STABILIZE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z4 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0) AND
301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3).//
BT
#0011

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