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Date:	Sat, 27 Mar 1999 07:23:38 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	[email-masked]

999
WTXS31 PGTW 271500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 14.3S8 110.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 110.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 15.1S7 108.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 16.0S7 106.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 16.9S6 104.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.6S4 102.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 18.8S7 97.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 110.2E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF JAVA OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 271130Z4
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S CONTINUES
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY A SHEAR LINE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA,
WHICH IS ADVECTING MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK INTO A LOWER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AWAY FROM THE SHEAR LINE. CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS STRONG. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7), 280900Z9 (DTG
280751Z3) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0).//
BT
#0001

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