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Date:	Fri, 29 Jan 1999 14:47:37 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy P
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

704
WTXS31 PGTW 292100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY P
ORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVETROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING PITION:
-  291800Z0 -BNEAR 17.9S7 83.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
-                   090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 83.3E4
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 18.1S0 8 95E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTSTPTP KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 18.4S3 78.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 18.8S7 76.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 MR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 19.3S3 73.8E8
1   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS
040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGICANT TROPICALYLONE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 82.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM TME NORTHEAST ANDPOVEHPOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER CONTINUES TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATEIKL35
AND 45 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) ISHARECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE

OF THE SUBTROPICAL RQDGE TO ITS SOUTHO THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUSPWARNING. MAXIMUM OH
SIGNIFICANT
V HEIGHT AT 291800Z0 IS 19 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGSNWO 300900Z2
(DTG 300757Z2) AND 302100Z6 (DTG 301957Z5);..

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