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Date:	Fri, 5 Feb 1999 08:58:59 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18l8;-1  01 Active Tropical Cyclone
In Southern H
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

717
WTXS31 PGTW 051500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18L8;-1  01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN H
EMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 19.3S3 112.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 112.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.7S7 110.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 19.8S8 108.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 19.8S8 106.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.6S6 103.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 19.2S2 99.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 112.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS NORTH OF
NORTHWEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
FAIR CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME OBSCURED
BY CIRRUS BEING SHEARED OFF OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AT 72 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051955Z5),060300Z9 (DTG 060155Z7),
060900Z5 (DTG 060755Z3) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061355Z0).//
BT
#0001

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