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Date:	Tue, 6 Apr 1999 15:07:27 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gwenda) Warning Nr 006
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 062100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 16.8S5 116.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 16.8S5 116.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 18.0S9 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 19.2S2 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 20.6S8 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 22.1S5 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 26.3S1 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9  116.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 32S (GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 061730Z7 ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 125
AND 140 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 32S CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY AND HAS A 16 NM DIAMETER EYE, BUT SOME DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOW BEING DRAWN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS
TO INCREASE. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32S CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, BUT THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO THE RECENT SOUTHWARD JOG IN THE TRACK. UW-CIMSS SHEAR
CHARTS INDICATE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING OVER TC 32S,
WHICH WOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HENCE, TC 32S IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN AT THAT INTENSITY
BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVERSED
FOR THE FIRST THREE WARNING POSITIONS DUE TO SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD WHICH SHOWS MORE DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
VE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0
(DTG 070153Z6), 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2), 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9) AND
072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  31S
(FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
BT
#0006

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