

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id OAA39386;
Mon, 1 Feb 1999 14:25:51 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 11350499 for
[email-masked]; Mon, 1 Feb 1999 14:25:44 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id OAA37562 for
<[email-masked]>; Mon, 1 Feb 1999 14:25:41 -0600
Received: by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.2/8.9.2) id OAA01350 for
[email-masked]; Mon, 1 Feb 1999 14:25:38 -0600 (CST)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Mon, 1 Feb 1999 14:25:38 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Loupq Tropical
Cyclmne 17s (
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

432
WTXS32 PGTW 012000
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUPQ TROPICAL CYCLMNE 17S (
C
HIKITA)WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERA E
,WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 19.4S4 75.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON ENTER LOCATED BY SJTALLITE
PRESEN WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 75.9E1
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.6S6 73.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 20.0S2 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 20.1S3 67.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 20.1S3 65.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 75.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY (40
KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT AWTY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SHIP REPORTS TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATES TC 17S HAS BEGUN TO
SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS WINDSHEAR REMAINS MODERATE TNNLAREA.
EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT SHIP REPORTS CONTNUE TO INDICATE
A FAIRLY LARGE AND ASYMMETRICAL WINDFIELD ON THE SOUTHERNNHALF. TC
17S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINATE STEERING FLOW OF THE
SIBTROPICAL RIDGE TO HE SOUTH. AS TC 17S CONTINUES TO GET SHEARED,
IT WILL COME UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TC 17S IS THUS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS
THE SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE

SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST 35 KNOT WIND
RADII IS OMTTED AFTER THE 12 HOUR POSITION SINCE MAX WINDS ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO BE 35 KNOTS. MAXIOUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0

IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMAON. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 (DTG 020751Z5) AND 022100Z5
(DTG 021951Z8).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.