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Date:	Sun, 21 Feb 1999 10:19:41 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

874
ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/211800Z/221800Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7N7
74E1 HAS DISSIPATED. THIS AREA IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17S8 118E0
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19S0 119E1. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA
ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES COASTAL
PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALSO HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS CONVECTION.
OUTFLOW APPEARS FAIR WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1
80E8 IS NOW NEAR 12S3 76E3. MINIMAL CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE AREA,
BUT EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATED A GOOD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
NEAR 5S5 58E3. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THIS CONVECTION RESIDES IN
THE BROAD NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 22S4 37E0. THIS
AREA HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A PASSING SHEAR LINE. OUTFLOW
APPEARS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/HERRON/HOWELLS//
BT
#7786

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