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Date:	Fri, 2 Apr 1999 20:06:30 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 030300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 18.6S5 82.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 82.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 18.7S6 80.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 18.8S7 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 19.1S1 75.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 19.6S6 73.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 82.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
022330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9
(DTG 031351Z3) AND 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1).//

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