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Date:	Fri, 12 Mar 1999 04:09:36 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 25s (davina) Warning Nr 024
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 120900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 23.0S5 52.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 52.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 23.3S8 51.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 24.0S6 51.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 24.8S4 50.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 25.5S2 49.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 23.1S6   52.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARING INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KNOTS. TC 25S (DAVINA) HAS REMAINED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CELLS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THE RESULTING WEAK STEERING FLOW
HAS CAUSED ERRATIC TRACKING OF THE SYSTEMS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
TC 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RESUME A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEGINS TO MOVE
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOWER LEVEL WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING ON MORE OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
AFTER 24 HOURS AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS SHEARED THE SYSTEMS CONVECTION
TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND EXPOSED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ARE STILL
STRONG AND WELL DEFINED. AN 111923Z7 SCATTEROMETER IMAGE HAS BEEN
USED TO ADJUST THE WIND FIELDS APPROPRIATELY. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS, AND BEGIN
DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6
(DTG 121953Z1) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9).//
BT
#0001

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