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Date:	Tue, 26 Jan 1999 08:01:34 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 009
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

516
WTXS31 PGTW 261500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 14.3S8 94.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 14.3S8 94.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 13.5S9 93.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 13.1S5 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 12.8S1 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 12.7S0 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 93.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 5
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED UPON 261130Z3 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TC 15S (DAMIEN) REMAINS A
SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION 70NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE IS
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR TC 15S. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN TRACK MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES
ORIENTATED MORE WEST TO EAST. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN)
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF THE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270300Z2 (DTG 270157Z2) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271357Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

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