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Date:	Tue, 16 Mar 1999 13:26:47 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160251 MAR 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160851 MAR 99//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 62E8
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11S2 58E3. SYNOPTIC DATA AND ANIMATED IMAGERY
INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED IN THE VERY
ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
74E1IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13S4 74.3E4. A LLCC IS EVIDENT IN THE
161200Z0 SURFACE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14S5 94E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 95.5E9. CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4 120E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S6 115.5E2 SOUTHEAST OF JAVA, AND IS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD. SEE
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 160300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(5) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12S3 132E6.
SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER LAND NEAR
THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS LESS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY, AND IT IS LESS ORGANIZED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS
REMAINS FAIR.
(6) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
FORECAST TEAM: MALMQUIST/JOHNSON/BROOKS//

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