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Date:	Wed, 3 Feb 1999 22:28:21 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 040255z Feb 99//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

194
WTXS21 PGTW 040300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
040255Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S4 120.6E9 TO 21.2S5
112.8E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 040030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 16.7S4 119.7E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT, FAIR
ELSEWHERE. 031500Z9 SCATTEROMETER REVEALED A SYMMETRICAL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 20 KNOTS AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE
DISTURBANCE. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION WILL CONSOLIDATE STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE CENTER AND
LEAD TO FURTHER ORGANIZATION. ACCORDINGLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 050300Z8.//

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