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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/091800Z/101800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090753 MAR 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090751 MAR 99//
NARR/REF A AND REF B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6N6 85E3
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. HOWEVER,
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FAIL TO DEPICT
CONSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE 091200Z2 SURFACE ANALYSIS IS MORE
INDICATIVE OF TROUGHING RATHER THAN A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING
OFF THE TIP OF INDIA. HENCE, THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 090600Z5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.6S6 60.1E7 AND WAS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 090600Z5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S7
84.7E9 AND WAS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31
PGTW 090900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THE SYSTEM.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 7S7 51E6 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED A DEFINED, CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA IS
UNDER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/COX/LAFRAMBOISE/JACKSON/PARKER//
BT
#XXXX

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