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Date:	Thu, 1 Apr 1999 08:19:32 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 011500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 17.9S7 88.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 88.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 18.5S4 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 19.1S1 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 19.7S7 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 19.6S6 81.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0   88.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 011130Z6 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS).
TC 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS
MOVED INTO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT RIDGE STEERING THE SYSTEM
AND ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND CAUSED THE EYE FEATURE TO FILL. THIS
VERTICAL SHEAR, COUPLED WITH THE ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR STRATUS
FROM THE SOUTH, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TC 31S
(FREDERIC/EVRINA) WHILE LOWERING THE LEVEL AT WHICH THE SYSTEM IS
STEERED. TC 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEST, POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD, AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED
BY THE PROMINANT LOWER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 31S
(FREDERIC/EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9) AND 021500Z8
(DTG 021351Z2).//
BT
#0017

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