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Date:	Sat, 20 Mar 1999 07:41:50 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS34 PGTW 201500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z5 --- NEAR 16.6S3 116.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 116.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 17.8S6 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 19.4S4 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 21.0S3 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 22.7S1 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 26.3S1 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6  116.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
201130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 AND T6.5 (115 AND 127
KNOTS, RESPECTFULLY). TC 30S (VANCE) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS
IT STEERS THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE INITIAL 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN AXIS OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 30S (VANCE) HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS IT
REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND
BETWEEN THE 36 AND 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. RAPID WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR AS TC 30S (VANCE) MOVES INLAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 29 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5
(DTG 201957Z4), 210300Z6 (DTG 210157Z6), 210900Z2 (DTG 210757Z2)
AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211357Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THE SYSTEM.
//

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