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Date:	Wed, 13 Jan 1999 11:48:33 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/131800Z/141800Z JAN 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6S6 52E7
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4S4 49E3. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SYNOPTIC DATA SHOW THE REGION AS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING
EXTENDING FROM THE EAST COAST OF AFRICA TO SUMATRA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5S5 91E0 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 4S4 85N3. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. 121200Z6 SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING EXTENDING WEST FROM SUMATRA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20S2
35E8 IS NOW NEAR 23S5 34E7 ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION FORMING NEAR AN OLD
SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 121200Z6 SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THIS CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/MORRIS/BALDINGER/GLASS//

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