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Date:         Mon, 25 Oct 1999 03:08:59 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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049
ABIO10 PGTW 250800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/250800Z/251800Z OCT 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N7
98.5E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N0 98.2E9 IN THE ANDAMAN SEA.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF A STRONG RAINBAND WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM THE NORTHOVER THE PAST 5 HOURS. SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND
UW CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE A LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW FAIR.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8
69.3E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 68.5E9, SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA.
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
SSMI IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER. THE
CONVECTION IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4
62.5E3 HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE PAST 8 HOURS. AVAILABLE
SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS A REGION OF TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE AREA
IN PARA 2.B.(1).  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADE POOR AREA TO FAIR IN PARA 1.A.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/COUTURE/THOMAS/NEAULT//

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