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Date:	Wed, 17 Mar 1999 11:29:50 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/171800Z/181800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170753 MAR 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171355 MAR 99//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171221 MAR 99//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THE ARABIAN SEA NEAR
8N8 65E1 AND HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED
WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 170600Z4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S1 112.0E4 AND MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS32 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 171200Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1
73.1E1 AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW 171500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 132E6
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0 128.3E4 IN THE TIMOR SEA AND IS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD. SEE REF
C (WTXS21 PGTW 161230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 62E8
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11S2 58E3. SYNOPTIC DATA AND ANIMATED IMAGERY
INDICATE AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14S5 94E3 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 95.5E9. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THE CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/NORDMAN/LAFRAMBOISE/PARKER/JACKSON//
BT
#XXXX

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