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Date:	Mon, 1 Mar 1999 14:28:28 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 25s Warning Nr 001
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

858
WTXS32 PGTW 012100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CAB9WE=MISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 10.8S9 88.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 88.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 10.8S9 88.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 10.9S0 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 11.0S2 85.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 11.1S3 84.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.8S9 88.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
AND IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED TOWARD THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND IS FAIR IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT, GOOD ELSEWHERE. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 011730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0
(30 KNOTS). TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
TOWARD THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF TC 25S. THIS SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 12 HOURS AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 011221Z7 MAR 99 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 011230) NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7) AND 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  23S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM.//

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