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Date:	Sun, 14 Feb 1999 08:58:56 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediatw70346 431 59 -.3.?---6 0945 )978-
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

948
WTXS31 PGTW 141500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATW70346 431 59 -.3.?---6 0945 )978-
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WAVC POSITION:
141200Z8 -
NEAR GWWMIS2 39.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGRNOAT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISOQUJKAEV MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 K
T

RADIUS OX 0350UVUIKIV40 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
0,                       040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEATPPOSPT: 22.8S2 39.6E8
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 22.2S6 40.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDQPA PTP NM NORTHWEST SEMIQCLE
050 NMPDOXYE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 22.0S4 39.537
MAX SUSTAIN WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035(5 28,$- - 065 MM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSI: 255/$3</ 06 KTS
36 HRV CCDMKAAGL QYPQPPZ7 --- 22.3S7 38.3E4
MAX SISTAINE WINDS - 050 UT, GUSTS 065 KT
ADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -0090:. -975# -3.8:84:)3
015 NM BSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WPNBS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
0       075 NM ELSEXM
VEOXMVGIVHR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 060KTS
AAV
EXTENDED OUTLOK:
0 48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 22.<S 37.1E1
2   MAM SUSTAIVED WINDS BA PTT K, GUSTS
070 KT
W   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM STUOM YEMICIRCLE
000                    88#0030 NM E$9/63
-  RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 ;. -975# -3.8:84:)3
000                0 88000MP NM ELSEWHERE OER WATER
.$;3:594 59 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 -- 22.5S9 34.3E0
2  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RCLVPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCTONE OVE LAND
ZVNXVKAAVQRQTPPZ1 POSITIONHVMIDQPKVS1 39.8E0.#94908:-) :6:)9,3 21S HA
S

TRACKED EAOAVNORTHEASTWAGD AT 07 KNOTSH THE LAST 6 HMIN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 141130Z0
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
M
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS AND
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANIMATD INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THEO
SOUTHEAST OF THD LOW LEVEL CIRULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS
DV0/0)59 08,098,5 -- 5#3 >8/ 09-8589,- 9;34 5#3 0--5 6 HOURS
ARE VARIED. THIS FORECAST MAKES A BREAK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY OF TC 21S RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST=
NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING TROUGH SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD, THE SUOPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILDPQN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE A WESTWARD
STEERING INFLUENCE OVER TC 21S. HENCE, OUR NEW FORECM TRACK HAS
TC 21S TRAVELLING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN
TURNING MORE WESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PONTA SAO
SEBASTIAO, MOZAMBIQUE IN PROXIMATELY 60 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTEN  FY THROUGH 60 HOURS, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER IT, ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THEN, TC
21S SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200ZPQS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SZA HEIGMWNFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8
(DTG 141953Z3), 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5), 150900Z5 (DTG 150753Z1)
AND 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL KLONE 19P (ELLA)
WARNINGS (WTPSNBPGTW) FORTHEFINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

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