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Date:	Thu, 25 Mar 1999 11:51:36 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/251800Z/261800Z MAR 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4 47E1
OFF THE NORTHEAST MOZAMBIQUE COAST HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. 251200Z9 SYNOPTIC DATA DEPICTS A WEAK,
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) JUST OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9 70E7
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAK LLCC. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S 88E6
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 86E4. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LINE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THIS
AREA IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
(4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4
122.5E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 117.5E4. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND
BROADENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION IS ESTIMATED AS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7-12 KNOTS.
251200Z0 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND WEAK
DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA AND
SATELLITE DATA STILL DOES NOT INDICATE A LLCC, BUT AS CONVECTION
PERSISTS WE ARE EXPECTING LLCC DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/ROBERTS/JOHNSON/JACKSON//
BT
#XXXX

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