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Date:	Thu, 18 Mar 1999 19:52:05 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 30s (vance) Warning Nr 003
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS34 PGTW 190300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- NEAR 13.6S0 121.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 13.6S0 121.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 15.0S6 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 17.0S8 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 19.0S0 116.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 20.9S1 116.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 121.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN
THE TIMOR SEA AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 182330Z7 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
TC 30S HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND APPEARS
TO BE FORMING A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST, AND THEN TRACK MORE
SOUTHWARD BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZED SYSTEM AND AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY
PASS.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG 191357Z6) AND 200300Z5 (DTG 200157Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0003

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