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Date:	Mon, 8 Mar 1999 21:09:26 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 090300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 15.1S7 87.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 120 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 15.1S7 87.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 15.3S9 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 15.2S8 82.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.2S8 80.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7  87.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL FAIL TO DISCERN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH TC 26S, BUT DO INDICATE
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED. HOWEVER, 082342Z9 MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS NO LLCC IS PRESENT. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LACK OF A DISCERNABLE LLCC BENEATH
THE CONVECTION, THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED. THE FORECAST
TRACK ONLY EXTENDS TO 36 HOURS AND THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED AS TC 26S IS NOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
NECESSARY TO CONFIRM NO LLCC EXISTS, WITHOUT THE LLCC, FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS IMPROBABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z9 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2), 091500Z5
(DTG 091351Z9), 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5) AND 100300Z4 (DTG 00151Z8).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0008

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