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Date:	Fri, 5 Feb 1999 01:46:14 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 003
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

292
WTXS31 PGTW 050900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 19.2S2 113.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 113.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.9S9 111.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.6S8 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.0S3 108.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.1S4 106.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
165 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 20.8S0 102.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 113.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS NORTH
OF EXMOUTH GULF, THE NORTHWEST CAPE OF AUSTRALIA. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 050530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A FULLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 050600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051355Z9),
052100Z8 (DTG 051955Z5),060300Z9 (DTG 060155Z7) AND 060900Z5 (DTG
060755Z3).//
BT
#0001

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