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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: The Southwest  Indian Ocean
To: [email-masked]
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651
WTIO20 FMEE 200618
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  99/10/19 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : NIL.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :
AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION, LOCATED BETWEEN 03 AND 10
SOUTH, FROM 70 TO 80 EAST, HAS PERSISTED DURING MORE THAN 24 HOURS
INSIDE A WIDE LOW AREA EAST AND NEARBY THE CHAGOS ISLANDS (BUFFER
ZONE). THE CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER, THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE MORE DEFINED ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS (SHIPS).  LOW NEAR 06S/76E, MOVING QUITE RAPIDLY
WESTWARDS, WITH WINDS OF 15/20 KT REACHING LOCALLY 25 KT IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTOR. MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HPA.

NWP MODELS SEE A MAXIMUM OF ABSOLUTE VORTICITY, MOVING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AND DEEPENING SLOWLY. BUT THEY MAINTAIN A STRONG
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH
MIGHT WEAKEN AFTERWARDS.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION REMAINS POOR.=

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