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Date:	Fri, 19 Mar 1999 07:59:04 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 30s (vance) Warning Nr 004
To:	[email-masked]

999
WTXS34 PGTW 191500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- NEAR 14.3S8 119.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 119.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 15.3S9 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 17.1S9 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 18.8S7 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 20.8S0 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 24.9S5 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 119.2E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 30S
(VANCE) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE TIMOR SEA AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 191130Z5
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TC 30S HAS ALMOST FORMED A
BANDING EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST, AND THEN TRACK
MORE SOUTHWARD BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TROPICAL CYCLONE
30S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NORMAL RATE DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT
211800Z2 OVER EXMOUTH GULF. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON A
COMBINATION OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZED SYSTEM AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY PASS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z3 (DTG 191957Z2), 200300Z5 (DTG 200157Z5), 200900Z1 (DTG
200757Z1) AND 201500Z8 (DTG 201357Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  29S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//

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