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Date:	Sun, 21 Mar 1999 11:53:06 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/211800Z/221800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211357 MAR 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211421 MAR 99//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELATION MESSAGE.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THERE IS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN A
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH NEAR 54E9 4N4.  DATA IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO
DETERMINE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 211200Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.3S3 114.6E2 AND MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS34 PGTW 211500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.0S3 68.0E4 IS NOW NEAR 12S 70E. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ABATED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S1
102.3E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17S 102E.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT PREVIOUSLY ISSUED ON THIS AREA HAS NOW BEEN
CANCELLED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS IS NOW POOR.  SEE REF B FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE TCFA
CANCELLATION.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3
91.3E3 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
(4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4
70.0E7 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MALMQUIST/JOHNSON/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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