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Date:	Thu, 4 Mar 1999 13:18:54 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/041800Z/051800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040551 MAR 99/
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041021 MAR 99/
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING, REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3N3 77E4
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE MET 5 IMAGERY SHOWS SOME TURNING EMBEDDED IN A NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH. WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLOW TO TC 25S
(DAVINA) IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ARE HELPING THIS AREA TO
PERSIST. A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PROBABLY PRESENT,
BUT ITS LOCATION IS NOT DISCERNIBLE FROM SATELLITE OR AVAILABLE
SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 040600Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S6 88.8E4 AND WAS TRACKING SOUTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 040600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
121E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 113.5E0 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 041030)
FOR DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24S6 41E5
IS MOVING RAPIDLY ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN AFRICA. IT IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 70E7
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S1 72E9. ANIMATED VISIBLE MET 5 IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW SPORADIC CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF TC 25S (DAVINA) FROM THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1003MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MALMQUIST/THOMAS/GLASS//

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