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Date:	Mon, 25 Jan 1999 09:08:18 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 007
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

377
WTXS31 PGTW 251500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 007
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- NEAR 16.5S2 95.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 95.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 16.7S4 93.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 16.9S6 91.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 17.2S0 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 17.6S4 86.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 95.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION
(TRMM) MICROWAVE PASS (250954Z5). THE WARNING INTENSITY (75 KNOTS)
IS BASED ON 251130Z2 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.0 (65 KNOTS), T4.5 (75 KNOTS), AND T5.0 (90 KNOTS). ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TC 15S (DAMIEN) DEVELOPED AN EYE AROUND
241800Z5 THROUGH 250500Z2. SINCE THEN, ANIMATION INDICATES AN
EMBEDDED CENTER VERSUS THE PREVIOUS EYE FEATURE. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.
TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE APPEARS VERY
PRONOUNCED AND IS FORECAST TO ALLOW TC 15S (DAMIEN) TO MAINTAIN
A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, BUT ENTRAINING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS FROM
THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION. TC
15S (DAMIEN) IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MODERATELY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z0 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG 260157Z1) AND 261500Z4
(DTG 261357Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNING
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON OLINDA. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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