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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Colombo And
Amconsul Madras
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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300
WTIO31 PGTW 270300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 16.2N9 91.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N9 91.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 17.1N9 89.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 17.7N5 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 18.6N5 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 20.1N3 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.4N1 91.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE SYSTEM
FURTHER INTENSIFIES. TC 05B HAS REMAINED UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING
THE INITIAL 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS TC 05B APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE, A GRADUAL DECELERATION AND TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NEARLY UNDER THE 200 MB RIDGE
AXIS, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR CHARTS
REVEAL PREDOMINANTLY WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY OF BENGAL. TC
05B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEARLY CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGHOUT THE THE INITIAL 36 HOUR PERIOD. INCREASING INTERACTION
WITH LAND MAY BEGIN TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION AFTER THIS PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9) AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7).//

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