

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id NAA22072;
Thu, 11 Feb 1999 13:04:07 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 11517987 for
[email-masked]; Thu, 11 Feb 1999 13:03:43 +1800
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id NAA22242 for
<[email-masked]>; Thu, 11 Feb 1999 13:03:42 -0600
Received: by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.2/8.9.2) id NAA20593 for
[email-masked]; Thu, 11 Feb 1999 13:03:41 -0600 (CST)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Thu, 11 Feb 1999 13:03:41 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

978
ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/111800Z/121800Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110521 FEB 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20S2 40E4
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25S7 45E9 OVER MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR
OVER THE AREA. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION ATTACHED TO THE TAIL-END
OF A SHEARLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1
113.5E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16S7 115E7 NORTH OF LEARMONTH,
AUTRALIA. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION APPEARS
TO BE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S. INFRARED SATELLITE
ANIMATION SHOWS THE COVECTION HAS REGENERATED FURTHER EAST OVER
THE PAST THREE HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMMS SHEAR
PRODUCTS INDICATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE AREA.
THIS WOULD INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE CONVECTION. ANIMATION INDICATES AN OVERALL EASTWARD DRIFT
WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. SEE REF A
(WTXS21 PGTW 110530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/ROBERTS/MORRIS/BALDINGER/GLASS//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCA11930421812

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.