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Date:         Sun, 12 Sep 1999 11:45:30 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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096
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/121800Z/131800Z SEP 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.0S5 62.0E8, WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED, YET THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WELL-WRAPPED. UM-CIMSS WIND
SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH MODERATE WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 18 HOURS
NEAR 8S8 83E1 IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUT DOES NOT
SUGGEST A LLCC. UM-CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE A
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND MINIMUM WIND SHEAR
OVER THIS CONVECTIVE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/COUTURE/BRANDON/GLASS/TON//

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