

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id LAA25490;
Tue, 16 Feb 1999 11:30:49 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 11589243 for
[email-masked]; Tue, 16 Feb 1999 11:30:47 +1800
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id LAA19856 for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 16 Feb 1999 11:28:20 -0600
Received: by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.2/8.9.2) id LAA24969 for
[email-masked]; Tue, 16 Feb 1999 11:28:19 -0600 (CST)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Tue, 16 Feb 1999 11:28:19 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

922
ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7N7 88E6
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4N4 87E5. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS
INDICATE THE AREA IS WITHIN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS.
161200Z0 SYNOPTIC DATA AND PREVIOUSLY ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 18S9 38E1 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S AND IS SLOWLY
MOVING TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1009MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7
93E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11S2 93E2. EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THIS INTERMITTENT
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10-20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1
112E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15S6 112.5E9. EARLIER ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4S4 75E2
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/HERRON/BALDINGER//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.