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Date:	Thu, 28 Jan 1999 20:27:09 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropicap Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 018
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

694
WTXS31 PGTW 290200
SUBJ:  TRGPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAP CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ONLONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 17.5S3 86.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION CURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 FT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 86.8E2
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:$
291200Z4 --- 18.1S0 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DG/ 11 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 18.2S1 82.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 18.2S1 79.9E5
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS --830 NM SOUTH
LCIRCLE
-                         110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
EXTENDED OUTOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 18.1S0 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
010000Z1 --- 17.8S6 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAC 17.7S5 - 86.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
WEO-SOUTWEST AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 AND T3.5 (45 AND 55 KNOTS). THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 15S (DAMIEN) REMAINS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST=
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEMS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY
EXPOSED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODERATE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
KTHE
EGION LOWARING THE STEDWIW LEVELSOF THE SYSTEM OVER TIME.
THIS LOWERING OF STEERING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 15S (DAMIEN)

TO TRACK MORE WEWARD AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FO
ECAST PERIOD DUE TO A BUILDING 700MB RI
SOUTHWESTTF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS FORECAST TO NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEARING ON THE
SYSTEM. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TWLY WEAKEN AFTER
THE 36 HOUR FORC3489$. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 (DTG 290757Z0), 291500Z7
(DTG 291357Z7), 292100Z4 (DTG 292557Z3) AND 300300Z6 (DTG
300157Z6).//

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