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Date:	Sat, 20 Mar 1999 01:51:13 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	[email-masked]

999
WTXS34 PGTW 200900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 15.9S5 117.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 117.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 17.1S9 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 18.9S8 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 20.8S0 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 22.6S0 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 26.4S2 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9  116.9E7.
TROPICAL STORM 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
200530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 AND T6.0 (102 AND
115 KNOTS, RESPECTFULLY). TC 30S (VANCE) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AS IT STEERS TC 30S (VANCE) TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE INITIAL 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN AXIS
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 30S (VANCE) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA AROUND THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. TC 30S (VANCE) IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 29 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8
(DTG 201357Z8), 202100Z5 (DTG 201957Z4), 210300Z6 (DTG 210157Z6)
AND 210900Z2 (DTG 210757Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.

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