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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/131800Z/141800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130753 MAR 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 130600Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 22.2S6 52.7E4 AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 130900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6S6 53E8 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S1 50E5 NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND IS DUE
TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING RATHER THAN A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. HENCE,
THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16S7 65E1
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 64E0, AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION
SHOWS THIS CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA). 131200Z7
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12S3 78E5 FOR THE
PAST 12 HOURS IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE AREA IS EMBEDDED IN A WAVE
TRAIN GENERATED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA). THE ORGANIZATION
HAS RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN THE 131200Z7 SURFACE ANALYSIS, BUT APPEARS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12N3 92E1 FOR THE
PAST 12 HOURS IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THIS AREA IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVETRAIN. HOWEVER, THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
LESS ORGANIZED THAN THE CONVECTION NEAR 12S3 78E5 AND HAS YET TO
DISPLAY SIGNS OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING BENEATH THE
CONVECTION. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/COX/LAFRAMBOISE/JACKSON/PARKER//
BT
#XXXX

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