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Date:	Sun, 18 Apr 1999 13:23:51 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	[email-masked]
Status: O

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/181800Z/191800Z APR 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10N1 82E0
IS NOW NEAR 9.5N4 81.5E4. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION JUST
OFF THE COAST OF INDIA HAS DECREASED. 181200Z2 SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATED A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEAR THE
CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 700 MB DATA INDICATED A
MID-LEVEL LOW GENERATING THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. UW-CIMSS
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CHART CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MODERATE WINDSHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 6N6 91E0 WEST OF THE ANDAMAN
ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 8 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A BROAD AND
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. 181200Z2 SYNOPTIC
DATA SUGGESTED LINEAR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR CHART INDICATED A MODERATE WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA NEAR 12S3 90E9 HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 8S8
91E0. A PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A DEFINED LLCC WITH 20
KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CHART CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7S7 50E5
HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY WEST TO A POSITION NEAR 7.5S2 48E2, NORTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPOSED
LLCC TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8
102.5E8 HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE LLCC HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED.  THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/PATLA/JOHNSON/HOWELLS//
BT
?XXXX

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