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Date:	Fri, 5 Mar 1999 14:45:53 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 052100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 14.6S1 80.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 80.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 15.3S9 77.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.8S4 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.3S0 72.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.7S4 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 17.6S4 65.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 79.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AND HAS A SMALL (20 NM) CLOUD FILLED EYE. TC 25S IS BEING
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH OF WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE
ARE FORECASTING CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS WITHIN 24 HOURS, AS THERE IS CURRENTLY NOTHING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS TO STOP INTENSIFICATION. A WEAKENING TO 100 KNOTS IS
FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS, BECAUSE SUCH EXTREME INTENSITIES ARE NOT
TYPICALLY SUSTAINABLE FOR A LONG TIME. HOWEVER, 25S SHOULD REMAIN
A POWERFULL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG
060153Z5), 060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1), 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8) AND
062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4).//

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