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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/040200Z/041800Z APR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351 APR 99/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCL0NE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5N5 86E1
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6N6 84E1, ABOUT 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. 031200Z6 SURFACE
CHART INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER, 031200Z6 200 MB CHART INDICATES WEAK DIVERGENCE ABOVE THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 031200Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.9S7 80.3E1 AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 031500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 129E2
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8 125.5E3. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY
AND AREAL EXTENT IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. UW-CIMSS WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE
THE AREA IS IN A MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
040000Z4 SURFACE CHART SHOWS A GOOD LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: TO UPGRADE PARA 2.B.(1) FROM POOR TO
FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/ROBERTS/MORRIS/BALDINGER//

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