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Date:	Wed, 31 Mar 1999 19:38:38 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	[email-masked]

999
WTXS31 PGTW 010300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 17.6S4 90.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 17.6S4 90.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.0S9 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 18.5S4 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 19.2S2 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 20.0S2 83.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 89.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC)HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON
312330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 155 AND 130 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TC 31S NOW HAS A 10 NM DIAMETER EYE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO ELONGATE DUE TO AN INCREASED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. SINCE THE ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS DEEPENED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, THE FORECAST TRACK IS NOW SLIGHTLY MORE
EQUATORWARD. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED AND TC 31S SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9).//
BT
#0016

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