

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id IAA08854;
Wed, 31 Mar 1999 08:34:23 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8d) with spool id 12076926 for
[email-masked]; Wed, 31 Mar 1999 08:34:03 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id IAA28784 for
<[email-masked]>; Wed, 31 Mar 1999 08:34:02 -0600
Received: by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.2/8.9.2) id IAA14550 for
[email-masked]; Wed, 31 Mar 1999 08:34:01 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Wed, 31 Mar 1999 08:34:01 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 311500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- NEAR 17.6S4 91.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 91.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.9S7 89.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.6S5 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 19.7S7 86.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 21.4S7 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5   91.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 311130Z9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS).
TC 31S (FREDERIC) HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY AND RETAINED A WELL-
DEFINED 24 NM EYE. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME.  THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, BUT IS
APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE. FURTHER EROSION OF THE RIDGE
BY THE SYSTEM COUPLED WITH THE SYSTEMS SELF PROPAGATION AND AN
APPROACHING MID-LATTITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TC 31S
(FREDERIC) TO BEGIN TAKING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
THIS PERIOD, TC 31S (FREDERIC) IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG
010151Z8) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1).//
BT
#0001

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.