

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id EAA15922;
Sun, 7 Mar 1999 04:27:36 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 11890443 for
[email-masked]; Sun, 7 Mar 1999 04:26:07 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id EAA14524 for
<[email-masked]>; Sun, 7 Mar 1999 04:26:06 -0600
Received: by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.2/8.9.2) id EAA19493 for
[email-masked]; Sun, 7 Mar 1999 04:26:05 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Sun, 7 Mar 1999 04:26:05 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 070900 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 15.3S9 97.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 97.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 15.4S0 93.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 15.6S2 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 15.9S5 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 16.2S9 84.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 17.3S1 77.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 96.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF JAVA IN THE
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM TO BE NEAR 30 KTS.
THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. UW-CIMSS DIVERGENCE PRODUCT INDICATES
TC 26S IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR,
HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FIX POSITION. FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW ALONG A SIMILAR
TRACK AS TC 25S (DAVINA)TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN MORE
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE WAKE OF DAVINA AND ESTABLISHES
BETTER ORGANIZATION. WIND RADII ARE GREATER TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONVECTION IN THS SEMI-CIRCLE.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: 35 KT WIND RADII IN ANAL, 12, AND 24
HOUR POSITIONS WERE GIVEN AS 9999 NM. THERE IS NO 35 KT WIND RADII
FOR A 35 KT SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7), 072100Z0 (DTG
071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5) AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.