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Date:	Tue, 2 Mar 1999 14:09:05 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 25s Warning Nr 003
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

604
WTXS32 PGTW 022100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 9.5S4 89.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 9999 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S4 89.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 9.5S4 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 9.7S6 88.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 10.3S4 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 10.9S0 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 9.5S4 89.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM
HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ITS ORGANIZATION DESPITE A SLIGHT WARMING OF
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 021730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z2 (DTG 030753Z8) AND 032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1).//

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