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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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718
ABIO10 PGTW 100830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/100830Z/101800Z DEC 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092051 DEC 99/
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100451 DEC 99/
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N7
85.9E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N4 85.9E2, AND IS THE SUBJECT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL
EXTENT. HOWEVER NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH. UW-CIMSS
CHART SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 092100)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8
120.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8 120.6E9, AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF B). ANIMATED VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT. SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. UW-CIMSS CHART INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 100500)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5S1
129.5E7, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF TIMOR HAS DISSIPATED AND
IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.4S3 98.0E7 AND
HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTION TO THE WEST.  A RECENT
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS ALSO SHOWS THE LLCC
AND WEAK CONVECTION. THE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A VERY
ACTIVE TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADD FAIR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(3).
FORECAST TEAM: COX/CANTRELL/PARKER/JACKSON/WHITCOMB//
BT
#XXXX

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