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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropica Cyclone 21s Warning Nr 003
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

333
WTXS31 PGTW 140200
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICA CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE EVERAGE
WARNINGNVVLL QRPPPPZ5 -A NEAR 23.8S3 38.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 38.1E2
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 25.1S8 38.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT,#GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015  M
RADIUS OF 035 KT WIPS 80 NM EAST SEMICIRCLZ
- 060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ -.(5-
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 26.5S3 39.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 28.2S2 39.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150
EG/ 11 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 30.2S5 41.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055:KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS O035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
-          -            055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 33.4S0 45.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHEE
8
EMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 24.1S7 38.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT DURING THE PAST 06 HOURJM
IRALEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOAPQPNYANTS. 131833Z9
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BAS ON A 132330Z2 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS ND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA. TTPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. AFTER 36 HOURS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT TC 21S WILL RECURVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE SOUTHAST. 2-#
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN LEVEL OFF AND BEGIN
WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 (DTG
140753Z0), 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7), 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3) AND
150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA)
WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCC06960450212

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