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Date:	Thu, 11 Mar 1999 12:03:31 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/111800Z/121800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110753 MAR 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 110600Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.0S5 53.2E0 AND WAS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 110900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6S6 53E8, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 7S7 50E5, NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS LESS OVERALL
ORGANIZATION THROUGHOUT THE PAST 24 HOURS. BUT THE LAST TWO HOURS
HAVE SHOWN INDICATIONS OF A CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
MINIMUM VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4 72E9
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14S5 68E4, AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S. SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THIS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA). ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, EAST OF THE CONVECTION. IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AREA HAS NOT INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED WEAK TO MODERATE WINDSHEAR WITH FAIR OUTFLOW
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/ROBERTS/MORRIS/BROOKS//

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