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Date:	Thu, 28 Jan 1999 02:17:26 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 015
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

102
WTXS31 PGTW 280900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 16.3S0 90.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 90.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 16.7S4 88.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 16.8S5 86.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 16.8S5 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 16.8S5 81.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 16.6S3 77.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 89.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, A MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS
(280219Z2), AND A TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM)
MICROWAVE PASS (280349Z6). THE WARNING INTENSITY (50 KNOTS) IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND 35 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ABOUT 70NM NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. VISIBLE
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND A PREVIOUS MICROWAVE SCATTEROMETER PASS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL 35KT WIND RADII.
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION. AS SUCH, TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DUE TO WINDSHEAR AS THE CONVECTION DECOUPLES FROM THE LLCC AND MOVES
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THOUGH OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, THE MODERATE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6
(DTG 281357Z6), 282100Z3 (DTG 281957Z2), 290300Z4 (DTG 290157Z4) AND
290900Z0 (DTG 290757Z0).//

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