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Date:	Fri, 22 Jan 1999 03:43:19 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

830
ABIO10 PGTW 211800 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/220900Z/221800Z JAN 99//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220057Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 220100)//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
?(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4 110E2
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 110.3E5 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REFERENCE A FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMEMT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOUR IS GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9 70E7 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6 70.6E3. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS DUE IN PART TO A WESTERLY MONSOON SURGE LOCATED 200 TO
300 NM TO ITS NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING BENEATH THE AREA OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED TO
THE SOUTH SIDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/THOMAS/BROOKS//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCA20670220934

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