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Date:	Tue, 2 Feb 1999 02:51:49 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

257
WTXS32 PGTW 020900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
8;2708,< 09-8589,:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 19.4S4 72.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATBY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 72.9E8
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 19.5S5 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.7S7 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 20.0S2 65.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
B    AAV
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 20.6S8 62.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIATING OVER WATER
REMARKS:
9020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4   72.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 13
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
020530Z0 INFRARED AND VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING R
INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). TC 17S
(CHIKITA) CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
FURTHER DECREASED, BUT THE NOTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO

MAINTAIN AT NEAR MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT WEST=
SOUTHAETWARD TURN AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MIXING OF COLD AIR STRATUS, AND SLOWLY
INCREASING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF

THE SYSTEM. SHORT PERIODS OF INCREASED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER. TC 17S (CHIKITA) IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECRE
IWTY
AND BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER AFOER TQE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO
WWI
30;PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT

022100Z5 (DTG 021951Z8)AND 030900Z2 (5# 030751+6).
//
BT
?7626

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