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Date:	Fri, 29 Jan 1999 15:03:09 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien-birenda) Warning Nr 021
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

933
WTXS31 PGTW 292100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 17.9S7 83.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 83.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 18.1S0 80.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 18.4S3 78.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 18.8S7 76.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 19.3S3 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 82.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE
CENTER CONTINUES TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
AND 45 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z0 IS 19 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2
(DTG 300757Z2) AND 302100Z6 (DTG 301957Z5).//

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