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Date:	Sun, 4 Apr 1999 09:06:45 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s (frederic-evrina) Warning Nr 023
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 041500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 18.8S7 74.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 74.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 19.5S5 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 20.5S7 69.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 21.5S8 67.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 22.6S0 65.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0   73.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 041130Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
(45 KNOTS) AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 31S
(FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MAINTAINING A
SIGNIFICANT, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AFTER THE 24
HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TC 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS MAINTAINED
FLUCTUATING CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC.
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DECREASE AND DISPLACE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TC 31S
(FREDERIC-EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DURING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2) AND 051500Z1
(DTG 051351Z5).//
BT
#0001

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