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Date:	Fri, 16 Apr 1999 20:39:57 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	[email-masked]
Status: O

999
ABIO10 PGTW 170000 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/170000Z/171800Z APR 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13N4 83E1
IN THE BAY OF BENGAL IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11N2 84E2. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG CONVECTION ADVECTING OVER
SOUTHERN INDIA. 1612000Z0 SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PRESENT BENEATH THE CONVECTION.
LOW PRESSURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
SUMATRA NEAR 11S2 86E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11S2 90E9. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION
OF THIS PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS WEAK TO MODERATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADE PARA 2.B. (1) FROM POOR TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/PATLA/JOHNSON/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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