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Date:	Mon, 1 Feb 1999 12:10:18 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

317
ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/311800Z JAN/011800Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010553Z JAN 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010751Z JAN 99//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N0
91.4E4 IS NOW NEAR 8.2N0 87E5 AND REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT AND
WINDSHEAR REMAINS HIGH. SYNOPTIC DATA DOES INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN THE CONVECTION. SEE REFERENCE A (WTIO21
PGTW) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 010600Z7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.7S6 78.9E4 MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE
REFERENCE B (WTXS32 010900Z0) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 112E4
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 113.5E0 SOUTH OF JAVA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
10 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER THIS DISTURBANCE AREA. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH TC 15S
(DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 68.0E4. THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDFIELD HAS REMAINED MOSTLY INTACT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SOME
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
IS ADVECTING THE DEEPER CONVECTION OFF TO THE SOUTH. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 HAS
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(4)NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/MORRIS/BALDINGER/GLASS//

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