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Date:	Wed, 10 Mar 1999 03:01:18 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 100900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 21.7S0 55.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 55.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 22.6S0 54.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 23.3S8 52.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 23.9S4 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 24.2S8 47.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 55.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 100530Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND REPORTS OF
NEAR 80 KNOTS. TC 25S (DAVINA) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC
25S (DAVINA) HAS SLOWED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND ANOTHER EASTWARD
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS EASTWARD BUILDING
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE INITIAL 24 TO 36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A POOR
PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD IF THE
EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE FAILS TO DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
INCREASING SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING TC 25S (DAVINA)
DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z7 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9) AND
110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7).//

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