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Date:	Sun, 14 Feb 1999 15:42:55 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Imediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Uis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

660
WTXS31 PGTW 142100
SUBJ: ;9MCCAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT UIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21- 2-4,<
006
01 ACTIVE TROPICACYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMPSPHEG
F SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTAVERALE
WARNING POSION:
0 141800Z4 --- NEAR 22.1S RPMEE7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HRS - 045 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
09-8589, -::74.)59 28558, 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LO
CATEDY SATELLITE
PRESENT WINDWSTRITION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 0 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT PIT: 22.1S5 40.3E8
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT
150600Z2 -#?;75S8 40.3E
- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT,<7-5- 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035  WINDS - 050 NM
VECOR TO 2HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
=
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100Z5 --- 21.1S4-39.4E6
0  MASUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT,)GUSTS 0 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265$3</ 06 KTS
36 HRS VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 21.25 38.2E3
MAX ;0,8?:8(I50 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADU OF 035 KT 8,$- - 075 NM SOUTH SICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
ECTOR T48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
4YRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --21.5S8 36.8E7
MAX SUSTAINEDINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 05# KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDSN- 095  SOU
TH SEMICIRCLE
;00      ,)                OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHRE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255$3</ 08 KTS
72 HRS VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 22.26 33.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDSA PWT KT, GKSTS 035 KT
DISPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONOVEG LAND
REMARKS:4
110;+8 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 40.3EUM
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS MOVING ORTHEASTWNLAT 08 KNOTS IN THES
MAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATE INFRARED SELLITE IMAGERY INDICWTES
THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKEND SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 #974- $73 59
VERTICAL SHEAR. 141512Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION COER IS OCATED NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTON.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTESITY ARE BASED ON A 141730Z6 INFRARD
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIME OF 3 KNOTS. TROPICAL CCLONE 21S IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH 12 ;#974- 5#3, 54-:(92-4$ 5#3 23-5
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH MOVES EAST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BLVGAND BECOMESTHE DOMINANT STEERING OH
NFLUENCE ON THIS SYSTLTC 21S IS XPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH48 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER S SYSTEM DECREASES,
THEN WEAKZP IDLY AND DQSSIPATE AS IT MAKES PANDFCVER
MOZAMBQUE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 16 ET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (5< 150153Z5), 150900Z5 (DTG 150Z1),
151500Z2 (DTG 151353ZAND 152100+9 (DTG 151953Z4)./
BT
?0006

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