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Date:         Thu, 16 Dec 1999 11:13:31 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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588
ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z DEC 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161353 DEC 99/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 161200Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.3S1 118.6E6 AND WAS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 161500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS L0CATED NEAR 16.5S2 42.0E6, IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH
OF AN AREA OF LINEAR CONVERGENCE. THIS AREA HAS FORMED ON THE TAIL-
END OF A SHEAR LINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. UW-CIMSS CHART INDICATES AREA IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT HAS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MORRIS/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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