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<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 001 Corrected
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
Status: U
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: f09606c6a0f816be3afb41d441078f11

793
WTIO31 PGTW 152100 COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 001 CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 15.8N4 89.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N4 89.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 16.8N5 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM
ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 17.9N7 85.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM
ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
055 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 18.8N7 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
030 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 19.4N4 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
020 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.0N7 88.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL,
APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTHWEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS, AND HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 151730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSM/I PASS DEPICT RAPIDLY INCREASING
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE SHEAR CHART AND 200 MB CHART
INDICATE THAT SYSTEM IS UNDER A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS TC 04B

REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL IT MOVES OVER LAND AFTER
THE 24-HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 11

FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 151721Z OCT 99
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 151730 ) NEXT WARNINGS

AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160753Z2), 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5) AND 170900Z7
(DTG 160753Z2). JUSTIFICATION: TO CORRECT NEXT WARNING TIMES IN
REMARKS.//
BT
#0001

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