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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 080300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 14.8S3 93.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 93.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 15.5S1 91.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.7S3 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 15.7S3 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 15.7S3 84.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 15.9S5 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 93.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SYMMETRICAL MASS OF CONVECTION ABOUT 250NM BY 250NM. A 071636Z3
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 35KTS WITHIN THE CONVECTION, BUT
NO DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED INTACT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT NO DOMINANT LLCC HAS
DEVELOPED. UPCOMING VISIBLE IMAGERY MAY YIELD MULTIPLE LLCC AND
POSSIBLE RELOCATION. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON
THE EASTERN SIDE WHILE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE WARNING INTENSITY (35 KTS) IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF 072330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES
AND THE SCATTEROMETER PASS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH INITIALLY TO HONOR PERSISTENCE.
TC 26S IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A SLOWER THAN NORMAL RATE
THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE WINDSHEAR. AFTERWARDS, TC 26S SHOULD
DEVELOP AT A NORMAL RATE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON AN AVERAGE SIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG
080751Z1), 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4), AND
090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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