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Date:	Sat, 6 Feb 1999 08:52:50 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

621
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 18.2S1 109.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENTWIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 109.5E5
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 18.0S9 108.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 18.0S9 106.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.1S0 104.7E2
AX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHRE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 18.1S1 102.9E2
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
PP NM ELEEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.1S0 99.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
-$7- 9> 035 KT WINDY - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0  109.1E1.
8TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HALTRWE
D TOWARDF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
8 KNOTS D
5#3 0--5 6 HOURS. THARNING POSITIOMPCS BASED
ON 061130Z1 INFRAREDPVBLITS IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A 060241Z3 SCATTEROMETER IMAGE AND EXTRAPOLATION
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 18S HAS CONTINUEDPOXPONK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
DIE TOSHARING OF THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, THE SYSTEM WAS STEERED SLIGHTLY NORTH FROM IT;S
PREVIOUS PATH. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
WESTWARD AFTER THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY,HOWEVER,
MAY BE SOME WOBBLE IN THE TRACK OF T E SYSTEM DUE TO SHEARING
EF
CTS. TC 18S I FORECAST TO MAINTAIN IT;S INTENSITY THROUGH
OUT THE FIRST PORTION OF TPRERIOD. DECREASING SHEAR
UPSTREAM MAY ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION AFOERITPE 36 HOAR
POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 15
FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061955Z6),
070300Z0 (DTG 070155Z8), 070900Z6 (DTG 070755Z4) AND 071500Z3
(DTG 071355Z1).
//
BT
?7663

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