

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id EAA13636;
Tue, 16 Feb 1999 04:29:12 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 11584546 for
[email-masked]; Tue, 16 Feb 1999 04:29:11 +1800
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id EAA21042 for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 16 Feb 1999 04:29:09 -0600
Received: by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.2/8.9.2) id EAA15136 for
[email-masked]; Tue, 16 Feb 1999 04:29:09 -0600 (CST)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Tue, 16 Feb 1999 04:29:09 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

584
ABIO10 PGTW 161100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/161100Z/161800Z FEB 99//AMENDMENT
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150753Z FEB 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4N4 95E4
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7N7 88E6. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION REMAINS SPORADIC WITHIN A MODERATE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, 150600Z2 SHIP SYNOPTIC
DATA INDICATES A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST WEST OF
THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS NEAR 4S4 75E2. THIS CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10-15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.8S2
39.6E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S8 40.7E1 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE REF A (WTXS31
150900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ALONG 4S4 FROM
40E4 TO 60E6, EAST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA, IS NOW NEAR 7S7 55E0.
HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SPORADIC AS THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. SINCE NO LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS HAVE FORMED BENEATH THE CONVECTION, THIS AREA IS NO
LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 93E2. THE
AREA HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SOME SOUTHWESTWARD VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 112E4,
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAK, BUT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AND IS WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMD: ADD POOR AREAS IN PARA 2.B.(2) AND (3).
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/MORRIS/GLASS//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.