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Date:	Tue, 9 Feb 1999 08:22:55 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 091323z Feb 99//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

772
WTXS22 PGTW 091330
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
091323Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 13.2S6 160.4E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 091130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 160.4E1.  THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
4. REMARKS: 091130 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION.
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS IN
THE AREA INDICATE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 25 KNOTS. MODERATE SHEAR IS
ADVECTING MUCH OF THE CIRRUS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE VISIBLE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED OUTFLOW AND STIMULATE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES STRONG SHEAR TO
THE NORTH, BUT MODERATE TO WEAK IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS NEAR 29 DEGREES, AND MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 101330Z8.//

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