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Date:	Sun, 7 Mar 1999 13:44:11 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 072100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 14.3S8 94.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 94.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 14.6S1 92.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 14.9S4 89.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 15.2S8 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 15.0S6 83.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 14.3S8 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 94.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK INDICATED. THE OVERALL SYSTEM IS STILL LOOSELY
ORGANIZED AND MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) ARE
PROBABLE. FUTURE VISIBLE IMAGERY MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE RELOCATION.
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON
THE EASTERN SIDE WHILE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (35 KTS) ARE BASED ON 071730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
AT 48-72 HOURS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRENGTHENING OF THE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST, HENCE THE SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS TRACK SHOULD FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF TC 25S
(DAVINA). TC 26S IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A SLOWER THAN
NORMAL RATE THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE WINDSHEAR. AFTERWARDS, IT
SHOULD DEVELOP AT A NORMAL RATE AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. ALSO A TC (26S)
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WAVE TRAIN OF ANOTHER TC (25S) HAS MORE
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE IN SIZE AND RAPIDLY DEVELOP ONCE IT BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5), 080900Z7 (DTG
080751Z1), 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8) AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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