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Date:	Thu, 1 Apr 1999 19:49:18 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 020300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 18.6S5 87.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 18.6S5 87.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 18.9S8 86.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 19.2S2 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 19.4S4 84.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 19.6S6 83.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6  86.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 012330Z9 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 100 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TC 31S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
UNDERGO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HENCE, THE INTEGRATION OF
VISUAL IMAGERY IN THE NEXT WARNING MAY LEAD TO A RELOCATION OF THE
FORECAST TO THE EAST IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEING SHEARED
AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS INTO A RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS
SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2) AND 030300Z6
(DTG 030151Z0).//
BT
#0018

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