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Date:	Sat, 30 Jan 1999 06:34:09 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Guam/300912z Jan 99//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

854
WTXS22 PGTW 301030
301021Z JAN 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GUAM/300912Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF A IS HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNING FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
(WWIO30
PGFW 310000.//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7S2 94.5E8 TO 15.9S5 86.1E5
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S6 93.0E2.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
ANIMATION INDICATE AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION.
300600Z9 SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A 1002 MB CENTER LOW PRESSURE AREA
EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION AND THE AREA IS IN BETWEEN TC 15S
(DAMIEN-BIRENDA) TO THE WEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE TO THE EAST. NOGAPS ANALYSIS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM UW-
CIMSS SHOWS THE AREA TO BE IN WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO THE WEST, HOWEVER, AND MAY HAMPER
DEVELOPMENT IF THE AREA FOLLOWS TC 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA). AS
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301030Z7 IS 12 FT.
SEE REF A FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 311030Z8.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCA31210301034

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