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Date:	Fri, 26 Mar 1999 14:58:04 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s Warning Nr 003
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 262100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 14.1S6 113.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 14.1S6 113.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 14.9S4 110.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 15.5S1 108.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 16.3S0 106.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 16.8S5 104.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 17.6S4 100.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 112.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS SOUTH OF
JAVA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED UPON 261730Z9 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE TC 31S HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BUT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR CHARTS INDICATES THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 31S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY BETWEEN THE 36 AND 48 HOUR
FORECAST POSITIONS AS IT MOVES UNDER THE 200 MB RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6), 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2), 271500Z5
(DTG 271351Z9) AND 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5).//
BT
#0003

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