

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id CAA25338;
Mon, 8 Mar 1999 02:30:43 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 11900620 for
[email-masked]; Mon, 8 Mar 1999 02:29:13 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id CAA16280 for
<[email-masked]>; Mon, 8 Mar 1999 02:29:12 -0600
Received: by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.2/8.9.2) id CAA28351 for
[email-masked]; Mon, 8 Mar 1999 02:29:11 -0600 (CST)
Date:	Mon, 8 Mar 1999 02:29:11 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 25s (davina) Warning Nr 016
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 080900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 17.4S2 66.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 66.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 17.5S3 63.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 18.4S3 60.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 19.4S4 57.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 20.6S8 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (100 KTS) ARE
BASED ON 080530Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM TO BE 102
KTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE OF THE SYSTEM TO BE FILLING
WITH CLOUDS, AND LESS DISTINGUISHABLE. INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THAT THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS BEING ELONGATED AS IT IS
MOVING INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC
25S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
WIND RADII ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.