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Date:	Sat, 3 Apr 1999 20:00:18 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS31 PGTW 040300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 18.2S1 78.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 78.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 18.3S2 76.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 18.4S3 74.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.6S5 71.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.4S4 69.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 77.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
032330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
(55 KNOTS) IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 AND T3.5 (45 AND 55 KNOTS). ANIMATED IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO REVEAL GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. CURRENT ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PAST TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TC 31S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW-
LEVEL COOLER AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG
041351Z4) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2).//

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