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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z JAN 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4N4 70E7 HAS
BEEN RELOCATED TO 7N7 71E8. ANIATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS NO LONGER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, ANALYSIS OF SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA STILL REFLECTS
A CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 5N5 80E8 JUST OFF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR ONLY 10 HOURS.
HOWEVER, AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SUGGESTED A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20S2 35E8 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 25S7 36E9 OFF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THE 021200Z5
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORMING
UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE BROADNESS OF THE
CIRCULATION MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. AS THE AREA
OF CONVECTION CROSSES THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD INTENSIFY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 58E3 HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(JTWC) HAS SHIFTED OPERATIONS TO THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND
OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NPMOC) PEARL HARBOR, HI. PRODUCT DISSEMINATION
IS THROUGH THE FOLLOWING METHODS:
A. AUTODIN FROM NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//JTWC//=
B. NIPRNET WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.NPMOC.NAVY.MIL (LOWER CASE).
PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE AT OUR OLD SITE:
HTTP://NPMOCW.NAVY.MIL/NPMOCW/PRODS/JTWC.HTML (LOWER CASE) FOR A
LIMITED TIME.
C. SIPRNET WEBSITE: 198.97.106.240. PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO BE
AVAILABLE AT 206.36.192.40 FOR A LIMITED TIME.
D. AUTOMATED WEATHER NETWORK (AWN): ALL BULLETIN HEADERS AND
TIMES REMAIN UNCHANGED.AS OF 1 JANUARY, NEW CONTACT NUMBERS FOR THE
TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER (TDO) ARE (A) 474-2320 (C) 808-474-2320. JTWC
LOOKS FORWARD TO PROVIDING THE SAME LEVEL OF PROFESSIONAL METOC
SUPPORT TO ALL OUR CUSTOMERS FROM OUR NEW VENUE.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/THOMAS/BROOKS//

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