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Date:	Wed, 10 Mar 1999 14:53:10 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 25s (davina) Warning Nr 021
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 102100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 22.7S1 53.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S1 53.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 23.6S1 52.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 24.4S0 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 25.3S0 48.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 26.0S8 46.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 22.9S3 53.4E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA)
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101700Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER (101330Z8) TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT
MISSION MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY (80 KTS) IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.0 (65 KTS) AND T5.0 (90 KTS). TC 25S (DAVINA) HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 25S (DAVINA) HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE AND ANOTHER EASTWARD BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS JUST SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER TC25S BEGINNING TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
THIS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER
36HRS, TC 25S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHEARING AS IT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AS
THE SHEARING SEPARATES THE CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), THE LLCC SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR AS AN EXPOSED LLCC. THERE IS A POOR PROBABILITY TC25S
COULD TRACK FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND RAPIDLY MOVE OUT WITH THE
CONVECTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR COMBINED
WITH LAND INTERACTION FROM MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING TC 25S (DAVINA) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7) AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0).//

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