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Date:	Thu, 4 Feb 1999 14:03:40 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 001
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

127
WTXS31 PGTW 042100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 17.9S7 116.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 116.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.4S3 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.8S7 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
165 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.1S1 111.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 19.4S4 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 19.7S7 107.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 235 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 115.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 09 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORMING OVER THIS DISTURBANCE, WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE EAST WHERE IT IS FAIR.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF AUSTRALIA.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 041730Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
040202Z8 SCATTEROMETER DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. AFTER 24 HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY
IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 040202Z8
SCATTEROMETER PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS
14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 040255Z FEB 99
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 040300). FUTURE
WARNINGS WILL BE PROVIDED 06-HOURLY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050155Z6), 050900Z4 (DTG 050755Z2),
051500Z1 (DTG 051355Z9) AND 052100Z8 (DTG 051955Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.//

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