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Date:	Wed, 10 Feb 1999 11:45:37 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

021
ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/101800Z/111800Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVI0USLY LOCATED 19.6S6 36.2E1
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20S2 40E4 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHEARLINE OVER THE CHANNEL. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SHEARLINE OVER THE
CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 16N7 112E4 OVER
THE PAST 18 HOURS. THIS AREA IS AT THE END OF A SHEARLINE OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHWEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. CURRENTLY THERE IS STRONG
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, BUT INFRARED IMAGERY DOESNT
INDICATE A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES OUTFLOW IS FAVORABLE TO THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE ANIMATION ALSO
INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/ROBERTS/MORRIS/BALDINGER/GLASS//

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