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Date:	Tue, 6 Apr 1999 09:07:25 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gwenda) Warning Nr 005
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 061500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 16.2S9 116.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 116.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 18.1S0 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 20.0S2 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.8S1 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 23.7S2 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 27.3S2 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4  116.5E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S
(GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
UPON 061130Z1 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC
32S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 32S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WHEN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, THEN WEAKEN GWENDA RAPIDLY. LANDFALL OVER
ONSLOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN 48 HOURS AND WILL ENHANCE THE WEAKENING
EFFECTS OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT  061200Z9 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 0622100Z1 (DTG
061953Z4), 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6), 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2), AND
071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  31S (FREDERIC)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0005

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