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Date:	Sat, 27 Mar 1999 13:41:13 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s Warning Nr 007
To:	[email-masked]

999
WTXS31 PGTW 272100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 14.8S3 109.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 109.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 15.7S3 107.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 16.4S1 105.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 17.2S0 103.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 17.8S6 101.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 19.1S1 96.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 109.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
SOUTH OF JAVA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 271730Z0 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S CONTINUES TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, BUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A
WEAKENING IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG
280151Z7), 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3), 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0) AND
282100Z3 (DTG 281951Z6).//
BT
#0007

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