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Date:	Mon, 1 Feb 1999 01:48:56 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

115
WTXS32 PGTW 010900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 18.7S6 78.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 78.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 19.7S7 76.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 20.2S4 74.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 20.7S9 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 20.9S1 68.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 78.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 010530Z9 ANIMATED VISUAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING AT THIS TIME. TC 17S
(CHIKITA) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT IS STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. WIND RADII ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
LAST WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 (DTG 011951Z7) AND 020900Z1 (DTG
020751Z5).//
BT
#0001

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