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Date:	Sun, 24 Jan 1999 21:57:30 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 006
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

340
WTXS31 PGTW 250300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- NEAR 16.1S8 97.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 97.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 16.2S9 95.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 16.4S1 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 16.6S3 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 17.0S8 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.1S8   97.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15SW (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
242300Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 242300Z1 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS). TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE APPEARS VERY
PRONOUNCED AND IS FORECAST TO ALLOW TC 15S (DAMIEN) TO MAINTAIN
A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND IN RESPONSE TO THE SYSTEMS OWN
SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING COMPONENT. CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, BUT ENTRAINING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS FROM
THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION. TC 15S
(DAMIEN) IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY MODERATELY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7
IS 23 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 (DTG 251357Z3) AND 260300Z1
(DTG 260157Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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