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Date:	Tue, 2 Feb 1999 13:07:04 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

199
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020553Z JAN 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020551Z JAN 99//
NARR/REFERENCES ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 020600Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N3
85.0E3 MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE A
(WTIO31 020600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N0 87E5
IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING, AND IS DISCUSSED IN
1.A.(1) ABOVE. SEE REF A (WTIO31 020600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 020600Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.4S4 72.9E8 MOVING WEST AT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE B
(WTXS32 020900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
113.5E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S9 115E7 SOUTH OF JAVA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE AREA. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
ACROSS THE AREA APPEARS LOW-MODERATE AND OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH TC 15S
(DAMIEN-BIRENDA) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 67E3 IS NOW NEAR 11S2
68E4. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDFIELD HAS REMAINED MOSTLY INTACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND SOME CONVECTION OCASSIONALLY FLARES UP. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DECREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/MORRIS/BALDINGER/GLASS//

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