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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/141800Z/151800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140753 MAR 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 130600Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S2 52.8E5 AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 130900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 64E0
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S1 60E6 AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA).
IN ADDITION, A 131820Z5 SCATTEROMETRY PASS REFLECTS A WEAK, BROAD
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 78E5
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 74E1. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE AND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN THE
141200Z8 SURFACE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 92E1
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14S5 94E3. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ONLY SLIGHTLY
MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 140345Z7 SCATTEROMETRY PASS
SHOWS A VERY BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING BENEATH THE
CONVECTION. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMEN OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED SOUTH OF JAVA FOR
THE LAST 07 HOURS NEAR 13S4 120E3. THE 141200Z8 SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FORMING UNDER
THE CONVECTION, AND A 140205Z2 SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWS THE LLCC
WITH WIND SPEEDS TO 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(5) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/COX/LAFRAMBOISE/HOWELLS/PARKER//
BT
#XXXX

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