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Date:	Fri, 19 Feb 1999 11:12:01 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

677
ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/191800Z/201800Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7
81.2E1, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8N8 78E5, JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER
SRI LANKA AND SOUTHERN INDIA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE
191200Z3 SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC)REMAINS INTACT WEST OF SRI LANKA. IF THE LLCC ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPS DEEP CONVECTION, THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT PASSES INTO
THE ARABIAN SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16S7 117E9,
HAS DRIFTED TO NEAR 19S0 116E8. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SPORADIC CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM AND
DISSIPATE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. ADDITIONALLY,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE 201200Z5 SURFACE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS
YET TO SHOW A LLCC IS FORMING BENEATH THE CONVECTION. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/HERRON/HOWELLS//
BT
#7772

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