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Date:	Thu, 18 Mar 1999 08:37:27 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 30s (vance) Warning Nr 002
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS34 PGTW 181500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 002
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- NEAR 12.3S6 124.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 124.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 12.7S0 122.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.2S7 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 16.4S1 119.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 18.3S2 118.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 123.7E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 30S
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD, SOUTH OF JABIRY IN THE TIMOR SEA AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 181130Z4
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 30S HAS MAINTAINED STRONG
CIRCULATION, BUT LOST ITS CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. CURRENTLY IT IS DEVELOPING BANDS OF CONVECTION ABOUT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS SHOW TC 30S IS IN
AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S SHOULD
TRACK WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZED SYSTEM AND A 180145Z9
SCATTEROMETRY PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z3 (DTG 190157Z3) AND 191500Z6 (DTG 91357Z6). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
29S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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