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Date:         Fri, 10 Dec 1999 11:53:42 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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516
ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/101800Z/111800Z DEC 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092051 DEC 99/
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100451 DEC 99/
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101621 DEC 99/
NARR/REFS A THROUGH C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 10.4N5 85.9E2 IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N7 84.3E5 AND REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CONVECTION NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1008 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8
120.6E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 119.0E1 AND REMAINS THE SUBJECT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF B). ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH A MID TO UPPER-
LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UW-
CIMSS CHART INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 100500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3
98.0E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2 99.1E9 AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF C). ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101439Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSM/I) PASS DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AND WRAPPING IN
TOWARD THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THE LLCC IS
EMBEDDING IN A TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE TIMOR SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/MORRIS/GLASS//

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