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Date:	Wed, 27 Jan 1999 11:17:51 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

849
ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/271800Z/281800Z JAN 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271357Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED AT 5N5 92E1 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR OVER 18 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
INTERMITTENT. HOWEVER, SURFACE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING BENEATH THE AREA OF CONVECTION. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, AND THE
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 271200Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.5S0 92.6E7 MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE A
(WTXS31 271500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7S7 98E7
SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SINCE A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS YET TO FORM UNDER
THE CONVECTION, THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/HERRON/HOWELLS/GLASS//

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