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Date:	Sun, 28 Feb 1999 07:52:52 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

503
WTXS31 PGTW 281500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 23.2S7 42.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S7 42.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 24.1S7 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 25.1S8 44.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 26.3S1 44.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 27.3S2 44.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.4S9   42.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281100Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). TC 23S
HAS REMAINED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
SHEARED ABOUT 90NM EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NUMEROUS STEERING INFLUENCES MAY
CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM AND SHORT TERM ERRATIC TRACK
CHANGES. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK
MORE SOUTHWARD AND EVEN BEGIN TO TURN BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
FURTHER INTERACTION WITH LAND IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE EAST, HOWEVER,
APPEARS GOOD. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8) AND
011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GITA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0003

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