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Date:	Sun, 14 Feb 1999 13:38:25 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

336
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/141800Z/151800Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141500Z FEB 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9N9 94E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4N4 95E4 OVER BANDAACEH, SUMATRA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IN A
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 141200Z7 SYNOPTIC AND
SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A POSSIBLE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.5S9
38.0E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S2 39.6E8 OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING. SEE REF A (WTXS31 141500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS
SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 18 HOURS ALONG
4S4 FROM 40E4 TO 60E6 EAST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS AREA HAS
YET TO ESTABLISH ROTATION, BUT CONVECTION IS WIDESPREAD AND STRONG
IN AREAS. THE AREA IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND 141200Z8 SHIP AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/LAFRAMBOISE/PARKER/JACKSON//
BT
#0000

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