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Date:	Sun, 7 Feb 1999 04:39:11 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

063
WTXS31 PGTW 070900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 18.6S5 108.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 108.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.7S6 108.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.8S7 107.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 18.6S5 105.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 18.5S4 104.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5  108.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HAS DRIFTED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 3 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE FORECAST POSITION IS BASED ON
070530Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND ESTIMATED
CLOUD DRIFT WIND SPEED. TC 18S HAS REMAINED FULLY EXPOSED WITH A
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED. TC 18S HAS ENTERED A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITHIN THIS WEAK FLOW DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS, THEN
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS STRONGER FLOW BEGINS TO ONCE
AGAIN STEER THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 18S HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN SHEARED WHILE ENTRAINING
COLD AIR STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE RETAINING A DEFINABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS
15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071355Z1), 072100Z0
(DTG 071955Z7), 080300Z1 (DTG 080155Z9) AND 080900Z7 (DTG 80755Z5).
//
BT
#7668

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