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Date:	Sun, 24 Jan 1999 07:19:28 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 005
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

902
WTXS31 PGTW 241500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- NEAR 15.7S3 100.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 100.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 16.4S1 97.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 17.3S1 95.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
140 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 18.1S0 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
160 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 18.9S8 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 99.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY (65
KNOTS) IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND T4.5 (75 KNOTS). TROPICAL CYCLONE
15S (DAMIEN) DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE AT 240000Z6, AND
MAINTAINED IT UNTIL 240930Z8. INFRARED IMAGERY NOW INDICATES AN
EMBEDDED CENTER. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
THE SHEAR HAS LESSENED OVER THE SYSTEM AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE. TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE
DOMINANT STEERING FORCE FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS TC 15S WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A WEAKENED REGION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. IT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THIS WEAKENED FLOW REGIME.
AT THE 48 HOUR POSITION AN ALTERNATE TRACK SCENERIO EXISTS WHERE TC
15S MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKENED RIDGE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK, BUT TURN MORE WESTWARD AND REMAIN IN THE DOMINANT STEERING
FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. DECREASING VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR HAS ALLOWED TC 15S TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND ALLOWED FOR A MORE SYMMETRIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS
THEREFORE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY
THROUGOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z9 22 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 (DTG 250157Z0) AND 251500Z3
(DTG 251357Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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