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Date:	Thu, 18 Mar 1999 02:16:18 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 28s (elaine) Warning Nr 005
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

999
WTXS32 PGTW 180900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 19.6S6 110.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 110.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 20.7S9 110.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
170 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 22.4S8 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
090 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
165 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 24.1S7 110.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
080 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 26.1S9 110.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
075 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 110.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AT 8 KTS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 180530Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 28S (ELAINE) HAS A STRONG EYE FEATURE.
THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE)
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS IT IS STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STABILIZE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN THE STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UW-CIMSS SHEAR
PRODUCT IS INDICATING 80 KTS OF SHEAR IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME,
WHICH IS NOT FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIND RADII WILL DECREASE AS THE STORM LOSES STRENGTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7) AND 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  29S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 30S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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