

by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with SMTP id OAA23564;
Fri, 22 Jan 1999 14:22:47 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8b) with spool id 11210226 for
[email-masked]; Fri, 22 Jan 1999 14:22:46 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.8.8/8.8.8) with ESMTP id LAA40520 for
<[email-masked]>; Fri, 22 Jan 1999 11:47:05 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.8.7/8.8.7) id LAA16155
for [email-masked]; Fri, 22 Jan 1999 11:47:04 -0600 (CST)
Message-ID: <[email-masked]>
Date:	Fri, 22 Jan 1999 11:47:04 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

077
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/221800Z/231800Z JAN 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221357Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
?(1) AT 221200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8
107.7E5 MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.
SEE REFERENCE A (WTXS31 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
?(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
?(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9
110.3E5 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE
PARAGRAPH 2.A.1 ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
?(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6
70.6E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 70E7. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS DUE IN PART TO A WESTERLY MONSOON
SURGE LOCATED 200 TO 300 NM TO ITS NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, SATELLITE
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY
BE FORMING BENEATH THE AREA OF CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 10S1 133E7 AND
HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/HERON/HOWELLS/GLASS//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCA24250221734

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.