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Date:	Thu, 25 Mar 1999 02:12:59 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	[email-masked]
Status: U

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 250800 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/250800Z/251800Z MAR 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4 47E1
OFF THE NORTHEAST MOZAMBIQUE COAST HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. 241200Z9 SYNOPTIC DATA DEPICTS A WEAK,
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) JUST OFF SHORE AND SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
70E7 IS NOW NEAR 9S9 70E7. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAK LLCC. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12S 88E6 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN AN ELONGATED REGION OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE AREA APPEARS TO HAVE FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 13S4 122.5E0. THIS
AREA IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WHILE SLOWLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. 250000Z7 SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTED A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION EAST OF THE PRIMARY C0NVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADD TWO SUSPECT AREAS, PARA. 2.B.(3) AND (4).
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/COX/MORRIS/BALDINGER//

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