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Date:	Thu, 4 Feb 1999 02:31:03 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

716
WTXS32 PGTW 040800
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 18.9S8 55.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED OV CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 55.6E6
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 19.4S4 52.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 19.9S9 49.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 (5, GUSTS 035 KT
KISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.7S9 47.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 54.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED WITH DEEP CONVECTION ELONGATING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO TRANSLATIONAL SPEED

OF MOVEMENT. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFPUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR IN
APPROXIMATELY 30 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z
IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATIO
N
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNIN
G

CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY

MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
BT
?0001

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