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Date:	Sun, 31 Jan 1999 08:07:19 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

600
WTXS32 PGTW 311500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 003
02AROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- NEAR 17.0S8 83.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 83.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 17.6S4 79.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 18.4S3 76.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 18.7S6 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 18.7S6 70.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 18.5S4 65.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 82.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS IN THE
WAKE OF TC 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON 311130Z9
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED
ORGANIZATION AND STRONG RAINBANDS ARE WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOPING
CENTRALIZED WARM SPOT. INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRICAL, WITH
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO TRANSLATIONAL
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN ONTO A MORE WESTERWARD COURSE AS IT MOVES OUT
OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 17S (CHIKITA) IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW DOWN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TC 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA)
DISSIPATES AND FILLS. THE SYSTEM=S INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ITS SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 16 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z7 (DTG 311951Z0), 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8),
010900Z0 (DTG 010751Z4) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
BT
#0001

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