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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Colombo And
Amconsul Madras
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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517
WTIO31 PGTW 271500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 16.7N4 90.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N4 90.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 17.1N9 89.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 17.8N6 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 19.1N1 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 20.9N1 87.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.8N5 90.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
ANDAMAN ISLANDS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271142Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSM/I) PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING WITHIN A LARGE
EMBEDDED CENTER. ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THE BANDING FEATURE NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF TC 05B HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SSM/I
INDICATES A DEVELOPING EYE WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED SOUTH
TO WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS AND 200 MB
CHARTS INDICATE TC 05B HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM, AND IS ALSO TRACKING WITHIN A FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 05B IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
24 HOURS AND THEN TRACK MORE NORTHWARD INTO A FORECAST WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY
AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENTRAINING DRIER AIR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3
(DTG 280151Z7) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0).//
BT
#0001

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