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Date:         Thu, 9 Dec 1999 14:35:31 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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267
ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/091800Z/101800Z DEC 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082051 DEC 99/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N6

86.7E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5N7 85.9E2, AND IS THE SUBJECT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT,
HOWEVER NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH. UW-CIMSS CHART SHOWS
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 082100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1

125.0E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8 120.0E3, JUST SOUTHWEST OF TIMOR.

ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT.
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UW-CIMSS CHART INDICATES AREA IS

UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 200 MB CHART SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 6.5S1 129.5E7,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF TIMOR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH A WEAK MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. UW-CIMSS AND 200 MB CHARTS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS THAT THE AREA IS FORMING NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS, HOWEVER A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT EVIDENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF

A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/THOMAS/NEAULT/DAWSON//

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