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Date:	Sat, 30 Jan 1999 02:22:54 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

573
WTXS31 PGTW 300800
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z9 --- NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 16.8S5 78.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 16.7S4 76.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 16.8S5 74.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 80.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HAS MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIEN

CE
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE LO

W-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENS

ITY ARE
BASED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSI

TY IS
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IS FORE

CAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MO

VES
S
MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

WEAKENING
DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLA

TION FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICAN

T WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATI

ON. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 302100Z6 (DTG 301957Z5) AND 310900Z3 (DTG 3PUTUZ3).//
BT
?0001

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