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Date:	Thu, 4 Feb 1999 20:41:09 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 002
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

875
WTXS31 PGTW 050300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 18.5S4 115.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 115.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 19.2S2 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.7S7 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
155 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 20.0S2 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
165 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 20.2S4 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
175 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.4S6 106.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
180 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 115.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS NORTH OF BARROW
ISLAND IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY ELONGATED AND
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER JUST EAST OF THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTION. THE WARNING POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 042330Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE WEAK SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z4 (DTG 050755Z2), 051500Z1 (DTG 051355Z9), 052100Z8 (DTG
051955Z5) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060155Z7).//

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