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Date:	Fri, 29 Jan 1999 02:05:58 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien/brienda) Warning Nr 019
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

705
WTXS31 PGTW 290900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN/BRIENDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- NEAR 17.5S3 85.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 85.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 18.0S9 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 18.4S3 81.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 18.6S5 78.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 18.7S6 76.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 18.3S2 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 85.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN/BRIENDA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 290530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS (290206Z9). THE WARNING INTENSITY (50 KNOTS) IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND
CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS TC 15S
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS WINDSHEAR REMAINS MODERATE
OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ABOUT 100NM NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
FAIRLY LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL 35KT WIND RADII. OVER THE PAST THREE
HOURS, VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. AS
SUCH, TC 15S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST,
BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST 35 KNOT
WIND RADII IS OMITTED AT THE 72 HOUR POSITION SINCE MAX WINDS ARE
ONLY  FORECAST TO BE 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290600Z7 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291357Z7), 292100Z4 (DTG
291957Z3), 300300Z6 (DTG 300157Z6) AND 300900Z2 (DTG 300757Z2).//

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