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Date:	Wed, 17 Mar 1999 08:16:27 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 29s Warning Nr 003
To:	[email-masked]

999
WTXS33 PGTW 171500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- NEAR 13.7S1 73.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 73.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.2S7 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 14.5S0 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.7S2 68.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.8S3 66.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 15.1S7 62.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 72.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT 6 KTS OFF THE SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 171130Z3 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. A 170214Z5 SSMI PASS SHOWS A DEFINITE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND SOME WEAK BANDING FEATURES. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 29S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN MORE RAPIDLY OUT TO 72 HOURS, AS
IT MOVES IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WIND RADII ARE
BASED ON AN AVERAGE SIZED STORM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 (DTG 171955Z8),
180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0), 180900Z8 (DTG 180755Z6) AND 181500Z5 (DTG
181355Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  28S
(ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

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