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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Nyclone 15s (damien/bqpda) Warning Nr 020a
Vme
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

526
WTXS31 PGTW 291500 COR
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNIMG
1. TROPICAL NYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN/BQPDA) WARNING NR 020A VME
ML
01 ANTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDTN ONE-MINUTE AVERAGL   AAV
WARNING POSITPMNKAAGL WOQWIPZ4 --- NEAR 17.8S6 83.9E0
MMEMENT PAST SIX MMURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
0 POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 83.9E0
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 18.3S2 80.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045-KTGN GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 18.6S5 78.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT:
270 DEG/12 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 18.6SLT UTMTE7
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --2S5 72.9E8
OAX USTAINED WINDS - 04 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 17.9S7 68.0E4
MAM SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
29150#Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 83.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN/BIRENDA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
291130Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANBU8:-)
WARNING INTENSITY (49 KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND 35 KNOTS. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS TC TS
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS WINDSHEAR REMAINS MODERATE
OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW=
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ABOUT 50NM NORTHEAST OF THE
REMAINING CONVECTION. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW

THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS FROM THE CONVECTION BEING ADVECTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN FRONT OF AN APPROACHINGIPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. VISIBLE
IMAGERY
ND SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY LARGE AND
SYMMETRICAL WINDFIELD. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO THEPIM BWLE THE LLCC CONTINUES TO MOVE WITH
THESOW-MID LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS THE WEST. TC 15S IS THUS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWAD UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE FORWARD MOTION

OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE

GRADIENT. MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS THEPDOEM WILL INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ANRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECASTHPERIOD. THE FORECAST 35 KNOT WIND RADII IS OMITTED AT THE
72 HOUR POSITION SINCE MAX WINDS ARE ONLY FOREAST TO BE 35 KNOTS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE TC 15S COULD

GET CAUGHT AP
ALFOW OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND RECURVE TO
THE SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH. TC 15S WOULDITHEN ACCELER
TE AND RAPIDLY
WEAKEN BY THE 72 HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200TKBIS 20 FEET. REFER TO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WARNI O (WWIO31
PGFW) FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z4 (DTG 291957Z3), 300300Z/0(DTG 300157Z6; 300900Z2 (DTG
300757Z2) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301357Z9). JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:

TO CHANGE SPELLING OF PDDCORRCT A TYPOGRAPHIC ERROR.//

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