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Date:	Thu, 28 Jan 1999 14:36:49 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 017
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

906
WTXS31 PGTW 282100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 17.0S8 87.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 87.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 17.4S2 85.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 17.6S4 83.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
130 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 17.6S4 81.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 17.5S3 78.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.2S0 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9   87.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 281730Z1 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
AND T3.5 (45 AND 55 KNOTS). TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LAST FEW AVAILABLE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE REGION
INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS STILL FULLY EXPOSED, AND
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE BEGINNING TO SEPARATE FROM THE CONVECTION.
THIS SEPARATION WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED BY LOWER LEVELS
AND START TO TRACK TC 15S (DAMIEN) BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AFTER THE
12 TO 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, BUT MODERATE SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S (DAMIEN)
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RETAIN A RELATIVELY CONSTANT INTENSITY WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD INVOLVE TC 15S (DAMIEN) CONTINUING ON MORE
OF A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS INTACT, AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z
IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290157Z4), 290900Z0 (DTG
290757Z0), 291500Z7 (DTG 291357Z7) AND 292100Z4 (DTG 291957Z3).//

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