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Date:	Tue, 9 Feb 1999 08:25:32 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Poqewez Feb 99//
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>

839
WTXS22 PGTW 091330
J/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
POQEWEZ FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. IDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSLSUWM IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AME
M
BASSPORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARALOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE HIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 13.2S60.4E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 OO 24 74-.
NAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTI ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCNE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN T AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BEI20 TO ;(,95-. METSAT IMAGERY AT 091130ZWMOLTHAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 160.4E1.  THSYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
4REMARKS: 091130 INFRARED SATELLITE AGERY INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED LOW VEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITHHE CONVECTION.
CURRENT SATELLITE IENSITY ESTIMATES AND SYNOPTIC SHIP REPTS IN
THE AREA INDICATE MAXIMUM WINAT 25 KNOTS. MODERATE SHEAR IS
DVECTING
MUCH OF THE CIRRUS TO THE NOEAST. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER-LEVEANTICYCLONE VISIBLE IN THE WATER VAR IMAGERY NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM MAYLLOW FOR INCREASED OUTFLOW AND STIMULA FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE UW-CS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES STRONG SHEAO
THE NORTH, BUT MODERATE TO WEIN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
TEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS NEA REES, AND MINIMUM SEA
LERESSURE IS NZIWO MB. TPOTEL FOR THE BEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOUPOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTPQEEPZ8.//

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