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Date:	Sun, 21 Mar 1999 10:24:14 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 30s (vance) Warning Nr 012
To:	[email-masked]

999
WTXS34 PGTW 211500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z6 --- NEAR 19.3S3 114.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 114.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 21.0S3 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 23.3S8 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 26.1S9 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 29.0S1 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 114.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
THE SYSTEM REMAIN AT T6.5 (125 KNOTS). THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS THE SAME WITH TC 30S (VANCE) FORECAST TO RECURVE AROUND
THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AND MOVE INLAND. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
ENTRAIN DRIER AIR FROM THE CONTINENT, INHIBITING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TC 30S (VANCE) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT A
RELATIVELY STEADY INTENSITY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE THE 24
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN, FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z6 IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG 211957Z5), 220300Z7 (DTG 220157Z7),
220900Z3 (DTG 220757Z3) AND 221500Z0 (DTG 221357Z0).//

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