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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products <[email-masked]>
From:	SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To:	Multiple recipients of list WX-TROPL <[email-masked]>
Status: U

360
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/031800Z/041800Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030753Z JAN 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751Z JAN 99//
NARR/REFERENCES ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 030600Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N9
84.3E3 MOVING NORTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE A
(WTIO31 030600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 09 HOURS NEAR 6N6
65E1 IN THE ARABIAN SEA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING TOWARDS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS
SCATTERED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 030600Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7S7 63.5E4 MOVING WEST AT 24 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE B
(WTXS32 030900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S9
115.0E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7 117.1E0 SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF
SUMBAWA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS BENEATH THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION. 030231Z9 SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A BROAD CYCLONIC
WIND PATTERN WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTH. THE AREA IS WITHIN A
REGION OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 68E4
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8S8 66E2. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDFIELD, PREVIOUSLY
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HAS REMAINED
INTACT BUT HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE AREA HAS MOVED INTO
A PORTION OF MONSOON TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/THOMAS/BROOKS//

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