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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: The Southwest  Indian Ocean
To: [email-masked]
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745
WTIO20 FMEE 271204
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  00/02/27 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : NIL

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

1. THERE IS ALMOST NO CONVECTION LEFT IN THE MOZAMBIC CHANNEL,
HOWEVER SOME AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH OF 12S, EASTERLY SHEARED.
A LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS ALWAYS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY NEAR 21.2S/39.0E AT 10UTC. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1008 HPA WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS OF 10 KT. THIS LOW
TRACKS WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FEELING UP.

THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POOR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

2. AT THE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR, THE ITCZ IS WELL DEFINED NORTH OF
13S BETWEEN 68E AND 88E WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, WITHIN AN  HIGH LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT EASTERLY SHEARED.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BREAKED FROM THE ITCZ, AND SHOWS
PERSISTANT CONVECTION FOR 24 HOURS, MORE ACTIVE SINCE LAST NIGTH. A
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE ANIMATION NEAR
13.7S/61.8E. THE PRESSION IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 HPA WITH ASSOCIATED
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. IT IS EASTERLY WIND SHEARED MAINLY ON ITS
NORTHERN PART. THE NUMERICAL MODELS DEVELOP SEVERAL MINIMUM OF
ABSOLUTE VORTICITY AT THE EAST OF THIS AREA.

THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES FAIR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,  THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DECREASING ON THE AREA.=

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