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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Western Pacific
To: [email-masked]
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397
ABIO10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN/120600Z/130600Z JUL 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120251Z JUL 00//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9N8
130.7E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N4 127.0E0, IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA,
AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF
A). RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES INTENSE CONVECTION IS BECOMING
MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. UW-
CIMSS SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE
LOCATED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. A CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
EAST OF LUZON AND INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PLACE THIS SYFTEM IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. SEE REF A
(WTPN21 PGTW 120300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS RSMAINS GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5N7
111.5E8 HAS MOVED INLAND, DISSIPATED, AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) A SMALL AREA OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR 7.5N2 148.0W3, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUAL WARMING OF CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND RELATED DECAY OF THIS CONVECTION OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS INDICATED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS PRODUCTS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/PARKER/DAWSON//