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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
Status: U
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X-UIDL: 1e6ea144e9a178fc8ed49b2008f5fb45

601
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/051800Z/061800Z JAN 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421Z JAN 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
82.1E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0 83.9E0, APPROXIMATELY 710 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 051209Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED NEAR 1000 MB. SEE (WTXS21 PGTW 051430) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8
98.5E2 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY, EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS
ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPORADIC BUT
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. RECENT SYNOPTIC
DATA, HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO REVEAL A LLCC EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH. UW-CIMSS CHARTS SHOW THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/THOMAS/NEAULT/DAWSON/

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