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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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469
ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/281800Z/291800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA/280921Z FEB 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA/281351Z FEB 00//
NARR/REF A IS TCFA, REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR NEAR
13.9S3 61.8E5 AND WAS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (REF A) IS NOW TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (REF B) LOCATED NEAR
13.5S9 58.0E3 AT 281200Z. INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 280207Z9
SCATTEROMETER PASS AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. UPPR LVL
OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE WEST BUT RESTRICTED TO THE EAST. AT
281200Z3 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KTS GUSTING 40 KTS AND
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SEE
REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS
NEAR 12.8S1 78.7E4. ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INIDCATES A MAJORITY OF
THE DEEP CONVECTIONS IS MOVING WESTWARD.. UW-CIMSS DATA SHOWS WEAK
TO MODERATE SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10-15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER,
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY
OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA DSN 243-8872.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/MCKEOWN/WYNN/ILCZUK//
BT
#XXXX

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