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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: The Southwest  Indian Ocean
To: [email-masked]
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183
WTIO20 FMEE 121247
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  00/04/12 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : WARNING 02/13 ISSUED ON 00/04/12 AT 06UTC ON THE
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE NUMBER 13 IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL.

THIS SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONNARY, LOCATED AT 12UTC BY 23.7S/36.0E,
WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED AT 1005 HPA. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 KT, REACHING LOCALLY 30 TO 35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN
PART NEAR THE CENTRE.
CONVECTION IS ORGANISING AS A BAND PATTERN AROUND THE LLCC, BUT
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

AN AREA OF LITTLE ORGANISED CONVECTION IS PERSISTING SINCE SEVERAL
DAYS IN THE SOUTHEAST OF INDAN OCEAN, BETWEEN 84 E AND 100 E, NORTH
OF 17 S, IN A SHEAR LINE AT THE ENCOUNTER OF A TRADE WINDS FLOW AND
A MONSOON FLOW. A WIDE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CAN BE
DEPICTED ON SATELLITE ANIMATION AND QUIKSCAT DATA, WITH SEVERAL
LOWS POSSIBLE (NEAR 10.5S/92E AND 10S/95E AT 12UTC). ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KT, REACHING LOCALLY 30 KT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART. MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004
HPA.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK NEAR 10S/95E, AND MORE IMPORTANT
ELSEWHERE.

NUMERICAL MODELS ANALYSE AND DEVELOP A MINIMUM OF ABSOLUTE
VORTICITY IN THIS AREA, WITHOUT INTENSIFYING IT, AND MAJE IT TRACK
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD.

HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE SOUTH WEST INDIAN OCEAN REMAINS WEAK.=