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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
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243
ABIO10 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/042100Z/051800Z JUN 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N2
86.5E9 IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 16.5N2 84.6E8 IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAY OF
BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. CONVECTION HAS ALSO
INCREASED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS NOW INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.0S9
92.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS PERSISTENT BUT UNORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. A UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIR
DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED 1.B.(1) TO FAIR, ADD POOR IN PARA
2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/PARKER/TON//
BT
#XXXX