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Date:         Tue, 14 Mar 2000 19:16:29 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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481
ABIO10 PGTW 150100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/150100Z/151800Z MAR 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2
121.5E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S3 118.9E9, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CLEARLY EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA
IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS WITHIN A
BROAD PRESSURE TROUGH WITH 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 2 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADE POOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//

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