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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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654
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/041800Z/051800Z JAN 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041651Z JAN 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTION//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6
82.2E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 82.1E1, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA AND REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT
50 NM TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1000 MB. SEE (WTXS21 PGTW 041430 COR) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5S2
93.2E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0S9 98.0E7 ABOUT 140 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED
IN A NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/MORRIS/BALDINGER//

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