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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
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161
ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/191800Z/201800Z NOV 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191721Z NOV 00//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 7.4N1 78.5E0,
JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PERSISTANT CONVECTION WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SYNOPTIC DATA ALSO SUGGEST A
CLOSED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1
86.4E8 HAS DISSIPATED AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM HAS MADE
FOR AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ENHANCED INFRARED
AND VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 191730) FOR TCFA
CANCELLATION.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//