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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: The Southwest  Indian Ocean
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386
WTIO20 FMEE 111048
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  00/04/11 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : NIL

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

-1- THE LITTLE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL PERSISTS, BUT ITS ACITVITY REMAINS WEAK.
THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS CENTRED NEAR 23.5S/36.OE AT 10 UTC AND
THE MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS QUITE HIGH, ESTIMATED AT 1012
HPA. ASSOCIATED WINDS BLOW AT 15/20 KT, REACHING VERY LOCALLY 25/30
KT IN THE SOUTH (ERS OF THE 04/11/00 AT 07H28 UTC).
CENTRE IS MOVING AT 10 KT TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE'S COASTS.

-2- THE AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED YESTERDAY BETWEEN 88
AND 100 E STILL PERSISTS NORTH OF 17 S, BETWEEN 92  AND 105 E.
A CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, LOCATED NORTH OF THIS CONVECTION, IS
CENTRED NEAR 10 S/95 E ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT OF THE 04/11/00 AT
23H06 UTC. ASSOCIATED WINDS BLOW AT 10/15 KTS AND MINIMAL SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HPA.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONNEMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE, WITH A GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
NUMERICAL MODELS ANALYSE AND DEVELOP A MINIMUM OF ABSOLUTE
VORTICITY.

HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE SOUTH WEST INDIAN OCEAN REMAINS WEAK.=