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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
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168
ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/271800Z/281800Z OCT 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 271521 OCT 00/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N1
88.0E6 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
CANCELLATION (SEE REF A), AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N2 88.4E0, IN
THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
ELONGATING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271454Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM OVER LAND, HOWEVER, THE PASS ALSO DEPICTS A CONVECTIVE BAND
EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WRAPS INTO THE LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON
THE TRACK NORTHWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/JACKSON//