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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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352
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/231800Z/241800Z JAN 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21S3 40E4
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S3 39E2, ABOUT 300 NM WEST OF MADAGASCAR
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN
AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 96E5
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS AND
REMAINED POORLY ORGANIZED. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATES THAT THE AREA
IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
AREA HAS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//

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