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Date:         Sat, 19 Feb 2000 01:22:32 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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717
ABIO10 PGTW 190800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/190800Z/191800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351Z FEB 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180451Z FEB 00//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 181200Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.5N5 44.8E6, AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 181500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2
104.2E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 103.7E1, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. THIS AREA IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF B). ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 80 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS
NOW UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, SYNOPTIC
AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHTLY WOUND LLCC WITH 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB. SEE REF B
(WTXS22 PGTW 180500Z4) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5
76.5E8 IS NOW LOCATED 13.0N4 76.2E5, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEAL RELATIVELY POORLY ORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN
A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY, HOWEVER, INDICATED A BROAD LLCC JUST EAST OF
THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS SUGGESTS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3.JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED SUSPECT AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2). NO OTHER
CHANGES.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/BALDINGER/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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