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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
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335
ABIO10 PGTW 090500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/090500Z/091800Z NOV 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 4.4N8 72.6E5 IN
THE SOUTHERN ARABIAN SEA. THE AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL
TROUGHING AND CROSS EQUATORIAL CONVERGENCE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 8.6S4 86.5E9 IN
THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADDED PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1)
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//