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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
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154
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/121800Z/131800Z APR 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120121Z APR 00/
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121721Z APR 00/
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2
94.8E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 90.9E8, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
121147Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS FAILED TO
REVEAL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.8S3
35.9E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.6S1 36.0E9, APPROXIMATELY 43 NM EAST
OF INHAMBANE, MOZAMBIQUE. THIS AREA REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKENING CONVECTION CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. SEE REF
A (WTXS21 PGTW 120130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2
117.2E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 116.8E OVER THE TIMOR SEA AND IS
THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REF B). ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
INDICATIVE OF THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS22
PGTW 121730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
(4) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/PARKER/DAWSON//