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Subject:      Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian
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161
WTIO30 FMEE 141800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 5/2/20002001
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC  14/11/2000 : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF
POINT 9.2S/82.3E (NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY
TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 2.0/2.0  /S  /24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 25 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
NE30:        SE30:
SW30:        NW30:
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1006 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SMALL
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 9.2S / 82.7E FI=2.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 9.5S / 83.4E FI=3.0

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 10.2S / 84.2E FI=3.5

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : QUIKSCAT PASS OF 12H26
CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 20/25 KTS.
THE SYSTEME IS QUASI-STATIONARY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RELATIVELY WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.=