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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
Status: U
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494
ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/291800Z FEB 00/011800Z MAR 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA/291353Z FEB 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA/291251Z FEB 00//
REF/C/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA/291553Z FEB 00//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S, REF B IS TCFA (WTXS21),
REF C IS TCFA (WTXS22)//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 53.9E7 AT 291200Z
CONTINUES IT WESTWARD TRANSIT TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT AND THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 291500) FO
R
FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3S6 86.1E5 I
S
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 84.91E2 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCL
ONE
FORMATION ALERT. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION, ORGANIZATION AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
ERS-2 SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 290423Z0 INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEV
EL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE VERTICAL WIND S
HEAR
HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVLOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. MINIMUM SEA LEVE
L
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 291300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY INLAND EAST OF DERBY AUSTRALIA H
AS
MOVED OFF THE COASTLINE INTO THE WARMER WATERS NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDL
AND
NEAR 18.4S3 119.0E1 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATIO
N
ALERT. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTI
ON
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A WELL DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND THE VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR
IS
WEAK. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 995 MB. THE POTENTIA
L
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVLOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS
GOOD. SEE REF C (WTXS22 PGTW 291600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S1 78.7E4 HAS
WEAKENED AND BECOME DISORGNAIZED AND IS NO LONGER A SUSPECT AREA.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER,
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY
OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA DSN 243-8872.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/MCKEOWN/WYNN/ILCZUK//
BT

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