

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id eAPKonh16049
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 26 Nov 2000 04:50:49 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.11])
by mailgw.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id eAPKnil24650
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 26 Nov 2000 04:49:44 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.11])
by postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.10.1/8.10.1) with ESMTP id eAPKYIE28156;
Sat, 25 Nov 2000 14:34:18 -0600
Received: from POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU by POSTOFFICE.CSO.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 1.8d) with spool id 15779760 for
[email-masked]; Sat, 25 Nov 2000 14:34:17 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu (8.10.1/8.10.1) with ESMTP id eAPKYFE27370
for <[email-masked]>; Sat, 25 Nov 2000 14:34:15
-0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3/8.9.3) id OAA11777
for [email-masked]; Sat, 25 Nov 2000 14:32:53 -0600 (CST)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Sat, 25 Nov 2000 14:32:53 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40000d706

273
ABIO10 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/252100Z/261800Z NOV 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N4
67.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N3 65.5E6, ABOUT 700 NM WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, A 251357Z8
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION NORTH TO EAST. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, BUT IS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
7.6N3 95.0E4, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND IN THE
ANDAMAN SEA. A 251443Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS
A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE
CENTER. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AT 251800Z6
INDICATES 15-KNOT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER 15-20 KNOT EASTERLY FLOW. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION: RE-ISSUED TO ADD A POOR AREA IN PARA 1.A.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//
BT
#XXXX