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Subject:      Indian-N: The Southwest  Indian Ocean
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444
WTIO20 FMEE 201144
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  00/11/20 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : NIL

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

1 - THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NR2 HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED SINCE
YESTERDAY AND CONVECTION HAS DISAPPEARED. A RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
CENTRE IS STILL VISIBLE, LOCATED NEAR 15.6S/78.2E AT 10H00 UTC =
ITS WESTSOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING LAST HOURS. A
QUIKSCAT PASS OF 0H31 UTC CONFIRMS THAT WINDS HAVE WEAKENED : 10/15
KT NEAR THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALLY 20/25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY NORTHERLY SHEARED. CEP
MODEL STILL ANALYSES THIS SYSTEM BUT DISSIPATES IT AT SHORT RANGE.

2 - A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHNORTHEAST OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS, LOCATED NORTH OF 10S, BETWEEN
75E AND 90E. A QUIKSCAT PASS OF THIS MORNING (0H31) SHOWS A WEAK
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IN THE EASTNORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
MASS. INDOEX DERIVED WINDS DATA SHOW A MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THIS AREA.

3 - IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE MONSOON FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED
AND CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN A CONVERGENCE LINE. A LOW LEVEL
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CAN BE OBSERVED AROUND A LOW ESTIMATED 1006
HPA CENTRED OVERLAND NEAR 23S/35E AT 06HUTC. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MODERATELY WESTERLY SHEARED. NWP MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS POOR.=