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Date:         Wed, 9 Feb 2000 17:13:36 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Content-Type: text
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870
ABIO10 PGTW 092330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/092330Z/101800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351Z FEB 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 091200Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINEA) WAS LOCATED
AT 18.3S2 84.5E7, AND WAS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 091500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
124.0E7, HAS SEPARATED INTO TWO SEPARATE AREAS. A PORTION HAS MOVED
OVER LAND AND WEAKENED. THE SECOND AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION IS
LOCATED NEAR 12S3 118.4E4 AND IS LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF JAVA, NEAR
12S3 108E9, OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE AREA IS LOCATED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA
ACROSS THE INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS L0CATED NEAR 18S9 121.5E9, OFF
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES LOW SURFACE
PRESSURES WITH LINEAR SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 10S1 55E0, NORTHEAST
OF MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A REGION
OF WEAK TROUGHING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADDED SUSPECT AREAS IN PARA.2.B.(3) AND (4). NO
OTHER CHANGES.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/BALDINGER/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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