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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
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851
ABIO10 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/120300Z/121800Z APR 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120121Z APR 00/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
100.0E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2 94.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS AREA IS LOCATED
AT THE TAIL END OF A SHEAR LINE. QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.
QUIKSCAT ALSO SHOWS STRONG CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THIS AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.7S2
36.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8S3 35.9E7, APPROXIMATELY 41 NM EAST
OF INHAMBANE, MOZAMBIQUE. THIS AREA IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES NEAR -46 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THIS AREA IS A HYBRID SYSTEM, DEVELOPING ON THE TAIL END OF A
SHEAR LINE. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS UNDER WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1006 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE PAST 6
HOURS WITHIN A FAIR ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S1
124.5E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 120.5E8, OVER THE TIMOR SEA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE AREA IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(4) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(3) TO FAIR AND AREA IN
PARA 2.B.(2) TO GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//