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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (alistair) Warning Nr 010
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001b1b3

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 16.8S5 120.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 120.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 18.5S4 118.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 20.0S2 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 21.2S5 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 22.6S0 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 25.2S9 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0  120.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
190530Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. VISIBLE ANIMATION
DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A (APPROX) 110 NM CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST SITUATED OVER THE VORTEX CENTER. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVER AUSTRALIA THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD WITH AN APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 20S HAS BEGUN ITS TRACK POLEWARD
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND BENEATH LIGHT TO MODERATE UPPER
WEST-NORTHWESTERLIES. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z6, 192100Z3, 200300Z5 AND 200900Z1.//

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