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Date:         Fri, 20 Apr 2001 21:17:46 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj:  Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status:
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WTXS31 PGTW 210300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- NEAR 20.1S3 111.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 111.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 21.7S0 110.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 23.1S6 110.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 25.0S7 110.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 111.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
202330Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED ANIMATION REVEALED AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 30 NM WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. A 201759Z4 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION PASS SUPPORTS THESE FINDINGS. TC 20S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z2, 211500Z9, 212100Z6 AND 220300Z7.//

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