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Date:         Mon, 31 Dec 2001 02:11:08 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400021c96

WTIO31 PGTW 310900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VAMEI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z0 --- NEAR 5.0N5 90.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.0N5 90.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 5.1N6 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 5.2N7 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 5.3N8 86.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 5.4N9 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION NEAR 5.0N5 90.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (VAMEI), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
EAST OF SRI LANKA. TC 05B HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 310530Z2
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD
BAND ORGANIZATION, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND A POSSIBLE BANDING
FEATURE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 05B IS TRACKING WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED THE DYNAMIC AIDS OF
NGPS AND THE UK-MET OFFICE, BLENDED WITH CLIMATOLOGY, AND
PERSISTENCE. 200MB ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z0 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30
RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z7 AND 010900Z0.//

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