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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status: R
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400020412

ABIO10 PGTW 280530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/280530Z/281800Z OCT 01//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271952Z OCT 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7N7
89.3E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N0 89.2E9, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH OF CALCUTTA IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. A 272331Z8 SCATT PASS
INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
NOW BETTER ORGANIZED. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION COVERAGE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND IN A REGION OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL IN A REGION OF
DIFFLUENCE THAT IS AIDING CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 272100Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S3 90.5E4 AND WAS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 272100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) A 270104Z4 SCATT PASS HAS REVEALED A LLCC HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR 6.6S2 72.0E9, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. THE PASS INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. 200 MB
ANALYSIS REVEALS DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE REGION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 1.B.(2) TO FAIR. ADDED
2.B.(1) POOR AREA.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/WHITCOMB/ROBERTS/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

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