

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id f99Kokd09189
for <[email-masked]>; Wed, 10 Oct 2001 04:50:46 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.11.6/8.11.6) with ESMTP id f99Kr2i78859
for <[email-masked]>; Wed, 10 Oct 2001 04:53:02 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id f99KY1645500;
Tue, 9 Oct 2001 15:34:01 -0500
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release
1.8d) with spool id 18645991 for [email-masked]; Tue, 9
Oct 2001 15:34:01 -0500
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id f99KY1637764 for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 9 Oct 2001 15:34:01 -0500
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) id
PAA00631 for [email-masked]; Tue, 9 Oct 2001 15:34:01 -0500
(CDT)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Tue, 9 Oct 2001 15:34:01 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001fb5e

WTIO31 PGTW 092100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 19.1N1 67.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N1 67.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 19.6N6 66.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 19.8N8 64.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 19.9N9 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 19.9N9 62.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 19.7N7 60.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.2N2 67.1E4.
TC 03A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND
THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALING WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS. THE
QUIKSCAT PASS IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE AND IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
IMAGERY TREND. THEREFORE, WE ARE DROPPING THE INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE 200 MB ANAL INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS HAMPERED FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN EASTERLY SHEAR COMPONENT AND LOSS OF AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO STEER TC 03A ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK. ALTHOUGH INITIALIZATION OF THE VORTEX IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE ACTUAL POSITION, THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET-O
GLOBAL GRID POINT, AND THE AVIATION RUN AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE BAMS, PERSISTENCE, AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 08
FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4, 100900Z0, 101500Z7, AND 102100Z4.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.