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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (alistair) Warning Nr 007
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001b172

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- NEAR 14.3S8 124.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 124.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 15.9S5 122.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 17.2S0 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 18.3S2 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 19.4S4 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 21.3S6 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2  124.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
181130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT A
BANDING EYE FEATURE. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVER
AUSTRALIA. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA IS MOVING OVER THE TIMOR SEA AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW. UNDER THIS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181200Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2, 190300Z3,
190900Z9 AND 191500Z6.//

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