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Date:         Mon, 19 Mar 2001 00:47:37 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001a903

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 190700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/190700Z/191800Z MAR 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S3
104.7E2, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, HAS
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED. THEREFORE, THE
AREA IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN DIEGO GARCIA
AND RODRIGUEZ ISLAND NEAR 13.6S0 68.7E1. VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS A
SUDDEN BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PERSISTENT LLCC. A 190351Z9
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I 85 GHZ) PASS CONFIRMED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC AND ALSO REVEALED A WEAK BANDING FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. 200 MB ANAL INDICATES A NARROW SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: DROPPED PARA 2.B.(1) AND ADDED PARA 2.B.(2) FAIR
AREA.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/CUTMAN//

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