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Date:         Wed, 2 May 2001 12:40:00 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e40001b8e9

ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z MAY 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021121Z MAY 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 13.7N1 95.7E1
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N7 96.4E9 OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA AND IS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). A
021341Z1 SSM/I PASS DEPICTED DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INFRARED ANIMATION REVEALED THAT
THE LLCC WAS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
MORNINGS 200 MB ANAL SHOWED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND BENEATH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) UPPER
WEST-NORTHWESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 021130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE ARABIAN SEA NEAR 5.7N2 71.6E4. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED
ANIMATION DEPICT A CONCENTRATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ORIGINATING
OVER A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA HAS BEGUN
MOVING WESTWARD. SYNOPTIC DATA FAILS TO REVEAL A LLCC BENEATH THE
CONVECTION. CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL FEATURE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/HARRISON//

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