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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 010
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400016292

810
WTXS32 PGTW 120900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 17.3S1 69.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 69.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 18.0S9 68.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 18.6S5 67.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 19.0S0 65.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 19.4S4 64.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 69.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND NOW HAS A 13 NM RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE.
A 120019Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTED A WELL
DEFINED PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER FROM
THE SOUTH QUADRANT, AND DEEPENING EYEWALL CONVECTION. A LARGE FEEDER
BAND WAS ALSO EVIDENT EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OF TC 05S ALONG 35.0S8 HAS INFLUENCED
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 05S SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7).//

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