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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 013
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001671e

913
WTXS32 PGTW 132100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 19.4S4 68.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 68.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 19.9S9 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 20.5S7 66.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 21.0S3 65.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.2S5 64.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 68.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, AS WELL AS ITS RAGGED EYE. A SLOT OF DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AS WELL AS SUBSIDING DRY AIR INTO THE INFLOW
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INITIALLY, THEN
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER A MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8) AND 142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1).//

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