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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (alistair) Warning Nr 008
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001b188

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 15.0S6 123.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 123.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 16.3S0 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 17.4S2 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 18.5S4 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 19.4S4 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 23.0S5 110.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 122.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 181730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND
65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STEADY CONVECTION AND
AND AN EMBEDDED CENTER. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHED OVER AUSTRALIA THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE UPPER
RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA IS MOVING OVER THE
TIMOR SEA AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3,
190900Z9, 191500Z6 AND 192100Z3.//

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