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Date:         Mon, 2 Apr 2001 17:03:21 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/022000z Apr
01//
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS22 PGTW 022130
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022000Z APR 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 022000)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
AN 180 NM RADIUS OF 10.1S2 61.0E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 022030Z7 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3 62.0E8. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES. A 021350Z1 QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATED A WELL ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AND A LARGE WIND FIELD. UW-CIMSS PRODUCT INDICATES A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS AN ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED ALOFT. STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR THE LLCC AND THIS SYSTEM MAY RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IS DRIFTING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032130Z9.
5. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2 105.8E4.//

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