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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

117
ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071800Z/081800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070752Z JAN 01//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062351Z JAN 01//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.6N8
87.2E7 ABOUT 380 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA IN THE BAY OF BENGAL
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES 25 TO 30 KT
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE, THE AREA NO
LONGER HAS POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 070600Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO), WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.3S7 52.2E9, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 070900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4
77.7E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 74.7E8, ABOUT 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF B). A 071259Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS SHOWED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 070000) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6
131.0E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6 130.0E0, OVER THE TIMOR SEA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A POORLY DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVING WEST WITHIN A MONSOON
TROUGH. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING OUTFLOW IN THE
REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/SMITH/WILSON/CUTMAN//