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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 004
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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548
WTXS31 PGTW 040900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 13.7S1 57.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 57.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.2S8 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.9S6 55.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.2S2 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.5S8 54.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 57.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP
OF MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 040516Z6 VISIBLE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED BANDING CURVATURE. CONVECTION HAS
INTENSIFIED IN ALL QUADRANTS. TC 04S HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE WEAKNESS
AND BEGIN RECURVATURE. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 (DTG 041952Z1) AND 050900Z4 (DTG
050752Z9).//