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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400019ecf

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 14.9S4 112.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 112.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 15.3S9 114.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 15.9S5 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 16.3S0 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.8S5 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 113.0E5.
TC 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST AT 06 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 TO 45 KTS. A 121422Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS
REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 09S
IS DEVELOPING A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR INDICATES RESTRICTED OUTFLOW SOUTH WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF STRONG EQUATORIAL
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE
FIRST 24 HOURS, BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7) AND 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0).//

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