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WTIO20 FMEE 011200
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  01/04/01 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : NIL.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

A WIDE AREA OF FLUCTUATING AND POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
MATERIALIZES THE ITCZ, EXTENDING NORTH OF 15S, BETWEEN 55E TILL THE
FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR BASIN.
WITHIN THIS AREA, AND THANKS TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA OF THIS MORNING
AT QQN32 UTC, A LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CAN BE LOCATED NEAR
9S/65E. WINDS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH STRONG GUSTS
UNDER SQUALLS, AND MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008
HPA.
THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK ALONG 10S AND BECOMES STRONGER
BEYOND.

BRACKNELL AND ECMWF MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK TROPICAL LOW OVER THIS
AREA AT MEDIUM RANGE.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION REMAINS POOR.=

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