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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 013
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e4000157f5

072
WTXS31 PGTW 082100 COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 25.1S8 50.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 50.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 26.6S4 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 28.3S3 49.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 30.0S3 48.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 32.0S5 48.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 25.5S2 50.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST
OF TOLANARO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST. IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 04S HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH WEST OF
THE SYSTEM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC. TC 04S (ANDO) SHOULD
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SLOW MOVING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AFRICA,
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 (DTG
090752Z3) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091952Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05S (BINDU) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CHANGED WWPW31 TO WWIO31 IN REMARKS.//