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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS33 PGTW 050900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 13.8S2 61.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 61.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 14.9S4 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 16.3S0 59.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 17.9S7 58.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 19.9S9 58.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 61.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 050530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION AND A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AN
EYE, WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
REVEALED THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WAS SITUATED OVER THE
SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN WEAKENING IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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