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Date:         Fri, 19 Jan 2001 11:42:59 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400017885

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

820
ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/191800Z/201800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190621Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5
86.0E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8 84.8E0 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED
BENEATH THE CONVECTION. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7
119.0E1 HAS MOVED OVER LAND AND IS NOW LOCATED ON THE TAIL-END OF A
FRONT NEAR 22.8S2 116.2E0. THEREFORE, THIS AREA IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 20.6S8 42.6E2,
JUST WEST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED, BROAD
LLCC. A 191429Z6 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH CONVECTION EAST, OVER MADAGASCAR. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/JACKSON//

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