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Date:         Wed, 21 Mar 2001 11:44:05 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001a9ac

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/211800Z/221800Z MAR 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7
62.8E6, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS REMAINED
NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
LOST DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS SUPPORT A WEAK LLCC. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS NEAR THE AXIS OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S9
118.0E0, NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED NEARLY
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION, AND CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON//

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