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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40002126b

ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/291800Z/301800Z NOV 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290751Z NOV 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N2 92.7E8, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N5 91.1E1, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2N7
61.7E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N0 63.5E4, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST
OF SOMALIA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 290600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
11.7S9 92.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND
WAS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 290900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/BRYANT/KENDALL/PIVIN/WEAVER/TON//

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