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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06s (charly) Warning Nr 008
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e40001837e

295
WTXS31 PGTW 230900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z1 --- NEAR 20.8S0 70.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 70.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 22.0S4 68.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 22.8S2 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 23.7S2 63.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 24.5S1 60.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 69.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 230530Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 06S HAS FILLED ITS EYE. ADDITIONALLY
THERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER TC 06S, AND ALSO SHOWS
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z1 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 (DTG 231951Z1) AND
240900Z5 (DTG 240751Z9).//

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