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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06s (charly) Warning Nr 005
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e400017eb8

681
WTXS31 PGTW 212100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 17.9S7 76.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 76.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 18.8S7 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 19.7S7 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.7S9 68.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 21.7S0 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 75.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 29-NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH IMPROVED SYSTEM
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. A 211615Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING INTO THE
WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER TC 06S, AND ALSO SHOWS A
MIDLATITUDE LOW NEAR 30.0S3 67.0E3 WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWEST. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY THE APPROACHING MID-LAT
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AFTERWARDS, TC 06S IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211800Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 (DTG 220751Z7) AND
222100Z7 (DTG 221951Z0).//

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