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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (dera) Warning Nr 003
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001a6cb

WTXS31 PGTW 100300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 22.8S2 40.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S2 40.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 24.4S0 40.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 26.0S8 41.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 28.2S2 41.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 30.4S7 42.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 40.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 47 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
092330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT PULSING CONVECTION
AROUND THE CENTER AND A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND INTO THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT. AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INCREASE SPEED AS IT MOVES
POLEWARD AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM
EUROPA ISLAND (WMO NO. 61972) INDICATED LIGHTER WINDS BUT A
CONTINUED PRESSURE DROP AS THE SYSTEM PASSED BARELY TO THE EAST
AROUND 092100Z2. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, INITIALLY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, THEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE WEAKENING UNDER INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, INTERACTION WITH THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST,
AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND
110300Z5.//

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