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Date:         Tue, 22 May 2001 03:26:15 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01a Warning Nr 003
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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WTIO32 PGTW 220900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- NEAR 14.0N5 71.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N5 71.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 14.3N8 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 15.0N6 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 15.8N4 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 16.5N2 73.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 17.7N5 73.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.1N6 71.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
PAST 6-12 HOURS WITH A DEVELOPING 12-NM EYE. A 220458Z1 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION
NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 01A IS
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THEN, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD OVER SOUTHERN INDIA CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
INCREASINGLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z0, 222100Z7, 230300Z8 AND 230900Z4.//

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