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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s Warning Nr 001
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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865
WTXS32 PGTW 072100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 11.9S1 73.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 73.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 12.4S7 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 13.2S6 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 13.9S3 70.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 14.7S2 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 73.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 05S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. A 071614Z9 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE
LLCCS ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH WITHIN THE AREA. TC 05S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 30.0S3. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 062351Z7 JAN 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 070000) NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1)
AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//