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Date:         Thu, 1 Feb 2001 18:13:20 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Ampn/ref Is Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (wtxs22
Pgtw 010000)//
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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823
WTXS22 PGTW 020000
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA/010000Z FEB 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 010000)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS.
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9S7 69.1E6 TO 23.5S0 67.0E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 012030Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0 68.9E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) CONTINUES TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND
APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING CLOSER TO THE LLCC OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. A 011701Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I)
DEPICTS WEAK BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS
FEATURE IS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030000Z3.//

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