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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 016
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400016b49

612
WTXS32 PGTW 150900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 19.9S9 65.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 65.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 20.5S7 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 22.2S6 62.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 24.0S6 60.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 26.6S4 59.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD INITIALLY, THEN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 (DTG
151951Z2) AND 160900Z6 (DTG 160751Z0).//

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