

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id f0K8cqu13963
for <[email-masked]>; Sat, 20 Jan 2001 16:38:52 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu ([email-masked] [128.174.5.113])
by mailgw.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id f0K8b5A23139
for <[email-masked]>; Sat, 20 Jan 2001 16:37:05 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu ([email-masked] [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.2/8.11.2) with ESMTP id f0K8TBq21686;
Sat, 20 Jan 2001 02:29:11 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release
1.8d) with spool id 15995198 for [email-masked]; Sat, 20
Jan 2001 02:29:10 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.2/8.11.2) with ESMTP id f0K8TAq22292 for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 20 Jan 2001 02:29:10 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) id
CAA11446 for [email-masked]; Sat, 20 Jan 2001 02:29:10 -0600
(CST)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Sat, 20 Jan 2001 02:29:10 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400017a49

102
WTXS31 PGTW 200900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 16.2S9 82.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 82.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 17.0S8 80.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 17.9S7 78.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 18.6S5 76.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.3S3 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 81.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. A
200330Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A
PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO WEST QUADRANTS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW, AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LAT TROUGH
POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERALLY WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 (DTG 201951Z8) AND 210900Z2 (DTG
210751Z6).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.