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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01a Warning Nr 013
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001c0df

WTIO32 PGTW 242100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- NEAR 16.7N4 68.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N4 68.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 16.9N6 68.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 17.2N0 68.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 17.7N5 67.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 18.4N3 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 20.0N2 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.7N4 68.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES A CLOUD-FILLED IRREGULAR EYE AND SOME WEAKENING DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 01A IS EQUATORWARD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. RECENT MOTION SUPPORTS A VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS
ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE ARE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BY THE MID-PERIOD
AND SLOWLY STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0,
250900Z6, 251500Z3 AND 252100Z0.//

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