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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: The Southwest  Indian Ocean
To: [email-masked]
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405
WTIO20 FMEE 201155
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  01/01/20 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
WARNING NUMBER 010/05 RELATED TO THE SEVERETROPICAL STORM 05
(CHARLY).

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

1) THE I.T.C.Z. IS WELL-DEFINED, MATERIALIZED BY DISCONTINUOUS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE  ACTIVITY, EXTENDING ALONGTHE AXIS
10S/50E-08S/77E AND WITH TWO MAIN FEATURES : LINEAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXTENDING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FROM DIEGO-GARCIA'S AREA AND A
CLOUD CLUSTER NEAR 10S/52E. AN ANOTHER AREA OF UNORGANIZED
CONVECTION LOCATED OUTSIDE THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY, SOUTHWEST OF
SUMATRA, IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING.
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED TO THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS, NO
REMARKABLE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS PRESENT, THOUGH A WEAK LOW
(ESTIMATED 1008 HPA) MIGHT BE DETECTED WEST OF AGALEGA, NEAR
10.5S/54.2E, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLUSTER, WHICH EVOLVES
WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOT
CONSIDERED SUSPECT. SO THAT
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS POOR.

2) A WEAK CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT IN THE MOZAMBIC
CHANNEL. IT HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, SO
SETTING LESS CLOSE FROM THE MALAGASY COAST. THE LOW IS ESTIMATED AT
1003 HPA, AND WAS LOCATED AT 11 UTC BY 21.1 SOUTH AND 42.8 EAST.
GENERATED WINDS ARE WEAK, 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTION IS POOR, MOSTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE MALAGASY COAST, AND NOT IN PHASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER WINDS INDICATE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEARED CONDITIONS.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
//END PART 01//

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