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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (dera) Warning Nr 002
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS31 PGTW 091500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 20.9S1 40.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 40.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 22.2S6 40.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 23.3S8 40.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 24.5S1 40.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 25.7S4 40.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.2S5 40.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM NORTH
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
THE EARLY STAGES OF A DEVELOPING EYE CLEARLY EVIDENT. IMAGERY
FURTHER DEPICTS A GOOD BANDING FEATURE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM EUROPA ISLAND (WMO NO. 61972) INDICATE 30-KNOT
SOUTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS. UPPER AIR REPORTS FROM EUROPA
ISLAND AT 2000 FEET INDICATE 40-KNOT WINDS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, AND ACCOUNTS FOR THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. POLEWARD ORIENTED MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE
FORWARD MOTION OF TC 15S THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 15S
SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND
101500Z7.//

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