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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 012
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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090
WTXS31 PGTW 080900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 24.6S2 51.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S2 51.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 25.8S5 50.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 27.8S7 49.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 30.0S3 49.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 32.2S7 49.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 24.9S5 51.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST
OF TOLANARO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 080516Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SOUTHEAST. IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 04S
HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS A TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC.
TC 04S (ANDO) SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A SLOW MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR MID-PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z1 (DTG 081952Z5) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090752Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  05S (BINDU) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//