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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (alistair) Warning Nr 009
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001b199

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- NEAR 15.8S4 122.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 122.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 17.3S1 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 19.0S0 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 20.1S3 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 21.4S7 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 24.6S2 111.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 21.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
182330Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND
65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STEADY CONVECTION AND A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVER AUSTRALIA THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER
THAT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER. AFTER THAT, VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 190000Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9, 191500Z6,
192100Z3 AND 200300Z5.//

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