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Date:         Tue, 2 Jan 2001 03:30:28 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is
Possible Within
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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726
WTXS21 PGTW 020930
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S0 62.3E1 TO 12.8S1 58.4E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020716Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 61.8E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9 62.7E5 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 61.8E5, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 020449Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE AREA IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030930Z5.//