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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (alistair) Warning Nr 006
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001b171

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 13.5S9 125.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 125.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 14.9S4 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 16.1S8 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 17.1S9 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 18.1S0 115.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 19.5S5 110.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2  125.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
180530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVER AUSTRALIA. THE
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE TIMOR SEA AND WILL PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW.
UNDER THIS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z5, 182100Z2,
190300Z3, AND 190900Z9.//

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