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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 005
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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964
WTXS31 PGTW 042100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 14.8S3 56.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 56.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.2S9 56.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.7S5 55.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.1S1 54.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.9S1 54.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8  56.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND A 10
NM EYE. CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED IN ALL QUADRANTS. TC 04S
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CAUSED
BY THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK THROUGH THE WEAKNESS AND BEGIN RECURVATURE. THE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 (DTG 050752Z9) AND 052100Z8 (DTG
051952Z2).//