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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

553
ABIO10 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/120300Z/121800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111951Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 111800Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU), WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S6 70.1E8, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
112100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3
92.2E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S7 94.5E8 APPROXIMATELY 655 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. VISIBLE AND
INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICT DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANAL INDICATES IMPROVED
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED 11.1S3 116.5E3 OVER
THE TIMOR SEA. INFRARED AND VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICT PERSISTENT
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A POSSIBLE LLCC
DEVELOPING BENEATH THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR AND ADDED 2.B.(2) POOR
AREA.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/WILSON/EDBERG//

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