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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000213aa

ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z DEC 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020751Z DEC 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N0 87.6E1 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N5 85.0E3, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST OF SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING,
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A 021431Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSM/I) REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
WEAK WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. UW CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS AND
THIS MORNINGS 200MB ANAL INDICATE THAT THERE IS WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8N2
60.3E9, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N8 58.9E2, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST
OF SOMALIA. A 021355Z6 QUIKSCAT PASS AND A RECENT SSM/I IMAGE DEPICT
A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION THAT REMAINS UNORGANIZED. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 010600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI-BAKO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S8 85.2E5, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 020900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/MORRIS/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//

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