

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id f9SJ0w714223
for <[email-masked]>; Mon, 29 Oct 2001 03:00:58 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.11.6/8.11.6) with ESMTP id f9SJ3OR81120
for <[email-masked]>; Mon, 29 Oct 2001 03:03:24 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id f9SIUO624254;
Sun, 28 Oct 2001 12:30:24 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release
1.8d) with spool id 30397 for [email-masked]; Sun, 28 Oct
2001 12:30:24 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id f9SIUN624248 for
<[email-masked]>; Sun, 28 Oct 2001 12:30:23 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) id
MAA26080 for [email-masked]; Sun, 28 Oct 2001 12:30:23 -0600
(CST)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Sun, 28 Oct 2001 12:30:23 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status: R
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400020472

ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/281800Z/291800Z OCT 01//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280752Z OCT 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N0
89.2E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N2 88.7E3, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH OF CALCUTTA IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAK CIRCULATION AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
REGION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND IN A REGION OF MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 14.7N2 89.3E0,
WEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION
OF MODERATE EASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 280600Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 8.1S9 89.3E0 AND WAS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 280900)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6S2
72.0E9 HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONAY, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE
REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/PIVIN/WEAVER/TON//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.