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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06s (charly) Warning Nr 009
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400018516

348
WTXS31 PGTW 232100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- NEAR 22.1S5 67.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM
ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM
ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 67.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 23.2S7 65.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM
ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM
ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 24.1S7 62.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM
ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 25.4S1 59.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 26.8S6 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 67.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
231730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231750Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL

MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 06S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND
HAS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. THE UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED

THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRIER AIR BEING
ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO SERVED TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE

STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 (DTG
240751Z9) AND 242100Z9 (DTG 241951Z2).//

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