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Date:         Mon, 12 Feb 2001 02:21:12 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Ref/a/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/120200z Feb 01//
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400019eaf

WTXS31 PGTW 120900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120200Z FEB 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 14.9S4 110.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 110.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 14.3S8 111.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 14.4S9 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 15.2S8 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 16.5S2 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 111.1E4.
TC 09S (VINCENT) HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF A CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A RECENT QUICKSCATT PASS
INDICATED A WELL DEFINED LLCC AS WELL. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG WESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING
INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 08P WILL SERVE TO TRACK THE
SYSTEM INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 10 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 120200Z5 FEB 01
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 120200) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WINSOME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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