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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40002043d

ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/291800Z/301800Z OCT 01//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290752Z OCT 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2N2
88.7E3 IS OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N2
89.3E0 HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY, WEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS IN
THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT THERE IS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE REGION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE
EASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 290600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 8.9S7 85.1E4 AND WAS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 290900)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6S2
72.0E9 HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THERE IS A
WEAK 10 TO 15 KNOT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CIRCULATION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS
DIFFLUENT EASTERLIES OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SCOTT/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//

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