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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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305
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/061800Z/071800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060752Z JAN 01//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/052351Z JAN 01//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.5N7 88.0E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.6S8 87.2E7, ABOUT 380 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 4
HOURS. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK EQUATORWARD OF THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS AND WITHIN A MODERATE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 060600Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO), WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.4S4 53.8E6, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 060900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6S5
81.2E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 78.7E2, ABOUT 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (SEE REF B). A 061521Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSM/I) DEPICTED A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SEE REF B (WTXS22
PGTW 060000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/SMITH/WILSON/CUTMAN//