

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id fAT5iQE23407
for <[email-masked]>; Thu, 29 Nov 2001 13:44:26 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.11.6/8.11.6) with ESMTP id fAT5lKR24789
for <[email-masked]>; Thu, 29 Nov 2001 13:47:20 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id fAT5Qs675692;
Wed, 28 Nov 2001 23:26:54 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release
1.8d) with spool id 292606 for [email-masked]; Wed, 28
Nov 2001 23:26:54 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id fAT5Qr634812 for
<[email-masked]>; Wed, 28 Nov 2001 23:26:53 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) id
XAA00292 for [email-masked]; Wed, 28 Nov 2001 23:26:53 -0600
(CST)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Wed, 28 Nov 2001 23:26:53 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400021216

ABIO10 PGTW 290430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/290430Z/291800Z NOV 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281951Z NOV 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N2 94.0E3, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N2 92.7E8, NEAR THE NICOBAR ISLANDS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BUT ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
CUMULUS CLOUD LINES. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE 200MB ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 5.2N7 61.7E4, IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS.
SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 281800Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
10.8S9 91.4E4, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 282100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED 1.B.(1) TO FAIR. ADDED 1.B.(2). UPDATED
2.A.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/ROBERTS/WHITCOMB/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.