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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001a810

ABIO10 PGTW 151200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151200Z/151800Z MAR 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N6 93.0E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N0 93.0E2,
APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF RANGOON, THAILAND. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING CONVECTION IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS REVEALED A LLCC WITH
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC HAS MOVED POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS INTO
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AND WEAKEN IN STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
95.0E4 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
RECENT QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SYNOPTIC DATA DEPICT A WEAK
LLCC WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS, UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 11.0S2 110.0E2,
SOUTH OF JAVA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. A 141151Z3 QUIKSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AND UNDER MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: DOWNGRADE 1.B.(1) TO POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WAUGAMAN/HARRISON//

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