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Date:         Fri, 28 Sep 2001 03:11:01 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To: [email-masked]
Status: RO
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001f736

WTIO31 PGTW 280900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 19.3N3 61.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N3 61.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.3N3 60.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.2N2 59.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 18.8N7 57.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 18.3N2 56.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.3N3 61.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE AVAILABLE
MODELS OF AVN, NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID
DYNAMIC-NAVY (GFDN), ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK. THE LOW-
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE NUMERICAL AIDS CONSENSUS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY.
TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AS IT ENTRAINS DRY AIR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND
NEAR 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 10
FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6, 282100Z3, 290300Z4 AND 290900Z0.//

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