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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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X-UIDL: 35b414e40001ae8a

WTXS33 PGTW 052100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 14.9S4 61.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 61.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 16.4S1 60.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 17.9S7 60.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 20.1S3 60.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 22.3S7 60.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 61.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. A
051710Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I 85 GHZ) DEPICTED A
PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER
MADAGASCAR HAS ENHANCED THE OUTFLOW OF TC 18S. HENCE, THE
INTENSIFICATION. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD. LITTLE CHANGE
IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BEFORE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDES BEGINS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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