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Date:         Mon, 16 Apr 2001 15:28:57 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj:  Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS31 PGTW 162100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 9.3S2 132.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S2 132.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 9.7S6 131.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 10.0S1 128.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 10.3S4 126.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 10.6S7 124.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 9.4S3 132.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
161730Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.  SATELLITE ANIMATION
DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TC 20S SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW/MID
LEVEL TROPICAL EASTERLIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY, THEREFORE, SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST AS
LIGHT TO MODERATE UPPER EASTERLIES INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.//

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