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<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 007
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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728
WTXS31 PGTW 052100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 17.8S6 54.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 54.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.1S1 54.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.4S6 53.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.4S7 53.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 22.7S1 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 54.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051716Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. THE SSM/I IMAGE DEPICTS A
PRIMARY BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AND A 20 NM CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WELL-ORGANIZED, SYMMETRIC SYSTEM. TC 04S SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROUGH, SITUATED OVER SOUTH
AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 04S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051800Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG 060752Z0) AND
062100Z9 (DTG 061952Z3).//