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Date:         Sat, 27 Jan 2001 12:02:03 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001902b

348
ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/271800Z/281800Z JAN 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S7
73.0E0 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK, POORLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC DATA
AND RECENT QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE A WEAK, ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA NEAR 16.0S7 123.3E9. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG CONVECTION ORGANIZING ABOUT A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
OR TROUGH. RECENT SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS INDICATE THE
SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/WAUGAMAN/EDBERG//

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