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Date:         Tue, 20 Nov 2001 12:21:58 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400020e71

ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/201800Z/211800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1
81.8E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 82.2E2, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
IS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4S0
134.3E1 AND LISTED IN THE ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6.6S2 132.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
TIMOR IN THE ARAFURA SEA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. THE UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION IS EQUATORWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE UNDER A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/BRYANT/KENDALL/PIVIN/MAYER/TON//

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