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WTIO20 FMEE 251049
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  01/03/25 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : NIL.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

FLUCTUATING CONVECTION CAN BE OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE BASIN.

AN AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION PERSITS WEST OF DIEGO-GARCIA, ASSOCIATED
TO A WEAK AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION,
LOCATED BETWEEN 65E AND 70E (QUIKSCAT PASS OF THIS MORNING).

ACTIVITY IS MORE IMPORTANT NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
NORTH OF 21S, BUT NO CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CAN BE DETECTED THERE.
OVER THIS AREA, WESTERLY WINDSHEAR REMAINS STRONG SOUTH OF 15S AND
MODERATE IN THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE, CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, MAINLY NORTH OF 16S, IN A MODERATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

NWP MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL LOW, EVEN AT
MEDIUM RANGE.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION REMAINS POOR.=

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