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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Rmks/
To: [email-masked]
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845
WTXS21 PGTW 082030
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 082021Z FEB 01//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S5 115.1E8 TO 16.0S7 109.9E9
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
081730Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9
114.4E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS PERSISTED IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN,
450 NM NORTH OF LEARNMOTH. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS REESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IN MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092030Z4.//

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