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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj:  Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status:
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X-UIDL: 35b414e40001b23e

WTXS31 PGTW 202100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 19.4S4 112.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 112.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 20.8S0 111.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 22.2S6 110.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 23.8S3 110.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 112.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
201730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS. ENHANCED
INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z6, 210900Z2, 211500Z9 AND 212100Z6.//

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