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Date:         Wed, 2 May 2001 19:26:08 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001b907

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 030000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/030000Z/031800Z MAY 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021121Z MAY 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 13.7N1 95.7E1
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2N7 96.4E9 OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA AND IS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). A
021341Z1 SSM/I PASS DEPICTED DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INFRARED ANIMATION REVEALED THAT
THE LLCC WAS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
MORNINGS 200 MB ANAL SHOWED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND BENEATH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) UPPER
WEST-NORTHWESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 021130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N2
71.6E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N3 70.3E0 OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE ARABIAN SEA. INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS NEWLY DEVELOPED LINE OF
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS INCREASING COVERAGE
ABOVE POSSIBLE LLCC FORMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. BECAUSE OF THE SUDDEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
POSSIBLE LLCC DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION, WHICH HAS PERSISTED DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS, IS LOCATED NEAR 6.7S3 132.4E0 OVER THE ARAFURA SEA. IN-
FRARED ANIMATION AND SYNOPTIC DATA DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER A MONSOON TROUGH. 200 MB ANAL REVEALS A SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
SITUATED OVER THE REGION, IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. THE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH MAY BE STRONGER (22 TO 28
KNOTS). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARA. 2.B.(1) POOR AREA.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/HARRISON//

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