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Date:         Thu, 3 May 2001 09:26:45 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001b944

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 031430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/031430Z/031800Z MAY 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031021Z MAY 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2N7
96.4E9 HAS TRACKED OVER LAND AND DISSIPATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM
SOUTH OF MAWLAMYINE, MYANMAR. THEREFORE, THE AREA NO LONGER HAS
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 031030) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N2
71.6E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N3 70.3E0 OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE ARABIAN SEA. INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS NEWLY DEVELOPED LINE OF
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS INCREASING COVERAGE
ABOVE POSSIBLE LLCC FORMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. BECAUSE OF THE SUDDEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
POSSIBLE LLCC DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
(3) AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR 7.0N7 89.0E7, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC
WITH WEAK CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS 20-KNOT WESTERLY WINDS
JUST SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES DIFFLUENT,
MODERATE EASTERLIES OVER THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION, WHICH HAS PERSISTED DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS, IS LOCATED NEAR 6.7S3 132.4E0 OVER THE ARAFURA SEA.
INFRARED ANIMATION AND SYNOPTIC DATA DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER A MONSOON TROUGH. 200 MB ANAL REVEALS A SUB-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, SITUATED OVER THE REGION, IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH MAY BE STRONGER (22 TO
28 KNOTS). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED A POOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(3),
AND UPDATED PARA 1.B.(1) TO REFLECT TCFA CANCELLATION.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//

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