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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
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849
ABIO10 PGTW 071330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071330Z/071800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070752Z JAN 01//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/062351Z JAN 01//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.5N7 88.0E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.6S8 87.2E7, ABOUT 380 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 4
HOURS. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK EQUATORWARD OF THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS AND WITHIN A MODERATE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 070600Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO), WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.3S7 52.2E9, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 070900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9
78.7E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4 77.7E1, ABOUT 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, AND REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF B). A 061727Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING
MISSION PASS REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 070000) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10.5S6 131.0E5,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 8
HOURS. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) MOVING WEST WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
DARWIN RADAR SHOWS MODERATE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WITH IMPROVING
OUTFLOW EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR RE-ISSUE: ADDED A POOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/BALDINGER/TON//