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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 014
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001686b

883
WTXS32 PGTW 140900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 20.0S2 69.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
120 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 69.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 21.0S3 68.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 21.2S5 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 22.0S4 64.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 23.5S0 62.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 68.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
INITIALLY, THEN TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, COMPLETELY DECOUPLES THE LLCC FROM ITS CONVECTION. A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE,
THEN AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO GAIN LATITUDE
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG
141951Z1) AND 150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9).//

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