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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400020935

ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071800Z/081800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N9
85.0E3, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N6 82.5E5 IN THE BAY OF BENGAL.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND UW CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE
REGION IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THE AREA IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3S1
57.3E5, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, IN THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0S6
90.0E9, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9S5 88.4E0, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE 071200Z0 SURFACE ANALYSIS, IN
COMBINATION WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS, REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN A LINE OF TROUGHING NEAR
7.0S7. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SCOTT/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//

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