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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Ref/a/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/210722z May 01//
To: [email-masked]
Status: RO
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WTIO32 PGTW 212100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210722Z MAY 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 13.8N2 69.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N2 69.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 13.9N3 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 14.1N6 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 14.7N2 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 15.3N9 72.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 16.2N9 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.8N2 70.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A HAD FORMED OVER THE EASTERN REGION OF THE
ARABIAN SEA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. A 211623Z5 SSM/I
PASS DEPICTED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC
01A IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER SOUTHERN INDIA CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210722Z4
MAY 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO22 PGTW 210730)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7, 220900Z3, 221500Z0 AND 222100Z7.//

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