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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclones In Northio
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400021c81

WTIO31 PGTW 302100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VAMEI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 5.3N8 90.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.3N8 90.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 5.7N2 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 6.0N6 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 6.3N9 86.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 6.5N1 84.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 5.4N9 90.4E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (VAMEI), WHICH HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TYPHOON 32W (VAMEI), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
WEST OF SUMATRA. TC 05B HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON MICROWAVE
AND 301730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD BAND
ORGANIZATION, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND A POSSIBLE BANDING FEATURE
NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT
MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALED LOW LEVEL BANDING INDICATIVE OF AT
LEAST A 25 KNOT SYSTEM. TC 05B IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CLIMATOLOGY, AND PERSISTENCE. 200MB ANALYSIS AND UW-
CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 10 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 AND 312100Z7.//

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