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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (alistair) Warning Nr 013
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS31 PGTW 200300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- NEAR 17.9S7 116.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 116.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 18.8S7 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 20.1S3 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 21.2S5 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 22.6S0 111.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 116.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
192330Z8 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55
KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. TC
20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
SOUTHWARD WITH AN APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 20S HAS TRACKED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
AND INTO A REGION OF MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER WEST-NORTHWESTERLIES.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL SHOW A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD, DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1, 201500Z8, 202100Z5
AND 210300Z6.//

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