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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 014
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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876
WTXS31 PGTW 090900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 27.0S9 50.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S9 50.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 28.3S3 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 29.7S8 50.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 31.9S3 50.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 34.1S8 50.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 27.3S2   50.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TOLANARO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUICKSCATT PASS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS ALSO INDICATES AN EXPOSED LLCC,
WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 04S (ANDO)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SLOW
MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG
091952Z6) AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100752Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05S (BINDU) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//