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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06s (charly) Warning Nr 007
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e400018203

359
WTXS31 PGTW 222100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- NEAR 19.4S4 72.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 72.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.7S9 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 21.9S2 68.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 23.0S5 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 23.6S1 62.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 71.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 822 NM
EAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 06S HAD A 20 NM EYE WITH SOME DECREASE
IN CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
GOOD OUTFLOW OVER TC 06S, AND ALSO SHOWS AN APPROACHING TROUGH. TC
06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH THROUGH THE 36
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO RESUME A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 06S SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. AFTERWARDS, TC
06S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 (DTG
230751Z8) AND 232100Z8 (DTG 231951Z1).//

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