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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 001a Amended
To: [email-masked]
Status: RO
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400020aa1

WTIO31 PGTW 110300 AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 001A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 15.1N7 82.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N7 82.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 15.8N4 82.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 16.6N3 82.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 17.5N3 82.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.3N9 82.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED JUST OFF OF THE ORISSA COAST OF
INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110230Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS, AND SYNOPTIC DATA. RECENT ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE BAY OF BENGAL. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: POSITION AND
INTENSITY RECONSIDERED BASED ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
ALONG THE COAST. TC 04B IS SITUATED IN A WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
IN INDIA. NOGAPS AND THE UKMET GLOBAL AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 08 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 101421Z NOV 01 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 101430). NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z8 AND 120300Z6.//

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