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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status: RO
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ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/271800Z/281800Z NOV 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270751 NOV 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N4
51.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF SOMALIA, IS NOW A BROAD TROUGH,
AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7 92.1E2, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N1 93.4E6, NEAR THE NICOBAR ISLANDS. A RECENT
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALED A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A BROAD TROUGH, WITH LITTLE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN CYCLING AND SHEARED WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. 200MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT,
UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 270600Z5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
8.2S0 93.4E6, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS,
AND WAS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 270900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5S2 94.6E9 IS
NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA 2.A.(1) FOR
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SCOTT/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//

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