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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS31 PGTW 032100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 15.3S9 81.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 81.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 15.8S4 80.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 16.3S0 78.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.7S4 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.1S9 76.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 17.4S2 73.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 81.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KTS IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS APPROXIMATELY 730 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA ISLAND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE FIRST 48
HOUR PERIOD THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES A HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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