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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40001fa08

ABIO10 PGTW 060030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/060030Z/061800Z OCT 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/052321Z OCT 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N9
86.0E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N4 83.0E1. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A POSSIBLE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE REGION IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IN DIFFLUENT EASTERLIES. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGE (SSMI) DEPICTS SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LLCC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S3
82.5E5 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/LEEJOICE/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//

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