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Date:         Thu, 9 May 2002 16:21:56 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01a Warning Nr 012
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e400024559

WTIO31 PGTW 092100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 15.6N2 55.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N2 55.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.7N4 53.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 18.3N2 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.9N5 54.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
WESTERN SECTOR, WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OMAN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
LAND, ENTRAINING DRY AIR. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE 13 HOUR
MARK ALONG OMAN=S SOUTHERN COAST NEAR THE BORDER OF YEMEN. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. ALL FORECAST AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, AVIATION, UKMET SPECTRAL
AND GFDN MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 14
FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4, 100900Z0 AND 101500Z7.//

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