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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 11s (eddy) Warning Nr 006
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000225dd

WTXS32 PGTW 262100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 20.0S2 89.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 89.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 21.5S8 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 22.8S2 87.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 23.6S1 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 24.4S0 82.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 89.6E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 6 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT BANDING FEATURE. A 261240Z5
SSMI PASS INDICATES CONVECTION IS BECOMING RESTRICTED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE CLUSTERED IN TWO
GROUPS IN REGARD TO FORECAST TRACK. NGPS/AVN CONTINUE TO PULL THE
SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY WESTWARD WHILE EGRR/GFDN ARE INITIALLY INDICATING
A SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BEYOND THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
EGRR/GFDN THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS LEANING TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF
ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z8 AND 272100Z2.//

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