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Date:         Fri, 22 Feb 2002 11:28:57 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022e54

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/221800Z/231800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 220600Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 26.1S9 62.3E1, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTHEAST OF
PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 4
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
220900) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0
42.1E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2S4 40.8E2 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
108.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S3 109.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA
IS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/BRYANT/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN//

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