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Date: Sat, 16 Nov 2002 02:45:33 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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ABIO10 PGTW 160630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/160630Z/161800ZNOV2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZNOV2002//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 151200Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6S4 75.7E9, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. TC 03S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 5.3S8 69.1E6,
APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SMALL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR A REGION OF RECENT PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. A 150334Z6 SSM/I PASS REVEALED AN ORGANIZED MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REGION IS
UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADD FAIR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/CUMMINGS/RONSSE/EDBERG//

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