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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:
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WTXS31 PGTW 082100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 20.3S5 84.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 84.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 21.0S3 84.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 21.9S2 84.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 22.9S3 83.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 24.0S6 83.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 84.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING
SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, UK-MET GLOBAL, BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY TLAPS AND TCLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//

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