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Date:         Sun, 10 Feb 2002 14:18:38 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e400022a7a

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 23.5S0 85.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 85.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 24.7S3 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 26.5S3 85.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 28.4S4 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 30.2S5 83.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.8S3 85.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH INCREASINGLY STRONGER SHEAR SOUTH. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 12S
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASINGLY
STRONGER SHEAR AND TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND
UK-MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC
MODELS. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AND
SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5.//

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