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Date:         Wed, 23 Jan 2002 11:42:21 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000224d5

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/231800Z/241800Z JAN 02//
REF/A//RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751Z JAN 02//
REF/B//RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351Z JAN 02//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 230600Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.1S4 53.8E6 MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 230900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4
90.4E3 IS NOW NEAR 11.9S1 89.5E2 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF B). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED CYCLING CONVECTION AND DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER
THE AREA. RECENT PASSES OF THE TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION

AND SSM/I SHOW INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN A REGION OF DECREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB.
SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 231400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/BRYANT/MAYER/LAM/WEAVER//

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