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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s (chris) Warning Nr 007
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40002292c

WTXS32 PGTW 060900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 21.2S5 119.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 119.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 22.1S5 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.8S2 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 23.6S1 116.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 24.3S9 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 119.5E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 08 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MARBLE BAR, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 060530Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT
RANGE FROM 80 TO 115 KNOTS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 13S SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE GREAT SANDY DESERT IN NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A MORE
SHALLOW STORM AND THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND TLAPS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER LAND. GFDN REMAINS
THE SOLE OUTLIER INDICATING A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER LAND THAN
ANTICIPATED. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND
070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  12S (FRANCESCA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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