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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS31 PGTW 060300
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051621Z MAR 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 11.2S4 64.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 64.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 11.2S4 63.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 11.1S3 61.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 11.5S7 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 12.1S4 57.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4 64.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTHEAST
OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
5 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
052330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061711Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS.
TC 18S IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST
TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WEST TO A POSITION SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (AVN, NOGAPS AND EGRR) AGREE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE
AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z6 IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 051621Z MAR 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 051630) NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 AND 070300Z0.//

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