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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000229ca

ABIO10 PGTW 071800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071800Z/081800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 5.0N5 67.3E6, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 7.2N9 64.3E3, IN THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN. RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
IS PRESENT. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES CONVECTION RESIDES NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 070600Z3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.9S7 82.0E0 AND WAS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
070900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.8S0
40.8E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.9S4 41.6E1, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE IS AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS BENEATH A REGION OF DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR IN
THE REGION IS CURRENTLY MODERATE TO STRONG AND THE CYCLING CONVECTION
IS RAPIDLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTED DATES IN SUBJ LINE.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/KENDALL/WEAVER/TON//

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