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Date: Sun, 24 Nov 2002 21:19:41 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 007a Corrected
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTIO31 PGTW 250300 COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 007A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- NEAR 15.8N4 88.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N4 88.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 16.8N5 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 17.5N3 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 18.2N1 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.8N7 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 19.5N5 91.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.0N7 88.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH OF
CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 04B IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL, JAPANESE GLOBAL MODEL, AND
AVN, ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. GFDN DEPICTS A STRONGER RIDGE THAT
PROPAGATES WESTWARD, RESULTING IN AN WESTWARD TRACK. THE OTHER
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED A WEAKER RIDGE THAT PROPAGATES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, MINUS GFDN, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ABOVE THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7 IS 16 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z6, 251500Z3, 252100Z0 AND 260300Z1. JUSTIFICATION
FOR COR: CORRECTED TRACK OF GFDN TO WESTWARD FROM EASTWARD.//

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