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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 11s (eddy) Warning Nr 005
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000225c7

WTXS32 PGTW 260900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- NEAR 18.2S1 89.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 89.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 20.2S4 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 22.0S4 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 24.0S6 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 25.8S5 87.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 89.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 260530Z6
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BANDING EYE FEATURE. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE
TRACK IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, AND THEN TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS AS
A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, UNTIL
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INHIBITS DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. NGPS
AND AVN PULL THE TRACK QUICKLY TO THE WEST. EGRR AND
GFDN TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTERLY. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
SELECTIVE BLEND OF EGRR, GFDN, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 AND 270900Z8.//

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