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Date: Mon, 25 Nov 2002 03:01:39 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 008 Relocated
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTIO31 PGTW 250900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- NEAR 15.0N6 88.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N6 88.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 15.4N0 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 15.7N3 87.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 15.9N5 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 15.7N3 86.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.1N7 87.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, IS RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS POSITION AT 250000Z7, AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
450 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
250530Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER INDIA CAUSING A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK OF THE REMAINING
LLCC. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
GLOBAL, JAPANESE GLOBAL MODEL, AND GFS, ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. GFDN
IS THE LEADING AID DEPICTING A STRONGER RIDGE OVER INDIA RESULTING
IN A WESTWARD TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON GFDN, NGPS AND THE
BETA ADVECTION MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z3 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3, 252100Z0, 260300Z1 AND
260900Z7.//

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