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Date:         Fri, 10 May 2002 04:01:19 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS31 PGTW 100900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 13.6S0 47.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 47.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.8S2 46.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 14.0S5 45.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 14.1S6 44.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 14.0S5 43.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 46.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
WEST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS IT LEAVES THE MADAGASCAR COAST AND TRAVELS
WESTWARD OVER WATER IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS WILL GIVE WAY
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD TO A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DIMINISHES. THE AVAILABLE AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH INDICATES A SOUTHWARD
TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS EXCLUDING GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  24S (ERROL) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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