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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status:
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WTXS31 PGTW 092100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 12.8S1 49.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 49.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.0S4 47.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.1S5 46.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 13.1S5 45.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 12.8S1 44.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 48.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ON THE
WEST COAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 091730Z0 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO
55 KNOTS. RECENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS DISSIPATED. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF POINT DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM HAS AIDED
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE
SHORT TERM AS IT LEAVES THE MADAGASCAR COAST AND TRAVELS WESTWARD
OVER WATER IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS WILL GIVE WAY IN THE MID
PERIOD TO A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
DIMINISHES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE
AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND
AVIATION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND
102100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR 12 HOURLY UPDATES.//

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