

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g3A32d403953
for <[email-masked]>; Wed, 10 Apr 2002 11:02:39 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.2/8.12.2) with ESMTP id g3A32ZSi008297
for <[email-masked]>; Wed, 10 Apr 2002 11:02:37 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g3A32Y658632;
Tue, 9 Apr 2002 22:02:34 -0500
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release
1.8d) with spool id 1313800 for [email-masked]; Tue, 9
Apr 2002 22:02:34 -0500
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g3A32X632752 for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 9 Apr 2002 22:02:33 -0500
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) id
WAA29310 for [email-masked]; Tue, 9 Apr 2002 22:02:24 -0500
(CDT)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Tue, 9 Apr 2002 22:02:24 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 22s Warning Nr 001
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400023bf3

WTXS32 PGTW 100300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 9.3S2 127.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S2 127.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 10.1S2 125.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 10.8S9 122.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 11.4S6 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 11.7S9 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 9.5S4 126.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST OF
TIMOR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A 091938Z0 TRMM PASS DEPICTS
INCREASED LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION SURROUNDING A COMPACT SYSTEM. TC
22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE TIMOR SEA.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS INDICATE THAT TC 22S WILL INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS
TIMOR, MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN MAY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THREE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS,
UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN BLENDED WITH THE BAROTROPIC ADVECTION
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 091730Z APR 02
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 091721). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-
JERY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.