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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS31 PGTW 182100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 18.2S1 59.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 59.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 19.5S5 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 20.8S0 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 22.1S5 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 23.6S1 59.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 59.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 181751Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 181650Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE
(SSMI) PASS INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS A 12 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, BUT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, AND WEAKEN
THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS,
GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND
SPEED. GFDN INDICATES A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC TROUGH. ALL THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKER SYSTEM,
TRACKING IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS, HEDGING
TOWARDS THE SECOND SCENARIO AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.//

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