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Date:         Wed, 20 Feb 2002 12:45:17 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e400022dba

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/201800Z/211800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 200600Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 21.0S3 58.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS GUSTING TO 145 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
200900) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS NEAR
17.8S6 41.6E1 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AN 201109Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/BRYANT/WINGEART/MAYER/LAM/TON/WEAVER//

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