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Date: Sat, 23 Nov 2002 20:41:11 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 003
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTIO31 PGTW 240300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z6 --- NEAR 13.2N6 88.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N6 88.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 14.4N9 88.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 15.5N1 88.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 16.4N1 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 17.2N0 89.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.4N3 91.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.5N9 88.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM WEST OF THE
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 232330Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD OVER INDIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PROPAGATE
EASTWARD. TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS
INTO THE WEAKNESS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS ABOVE THE RIDGE

AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, THE JAPANESE
GLOBAL MODEL, UKMET, AND AVN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS
WHILE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 48 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT

TRACKS ABOVE THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z6 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5, 241500Z2, 242100Z9 AND
250300Z0.//

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