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Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2002 02:20:32 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXII, Probability=32%, Report=SUBJ_HAS_SPACES

ABIO10 PGTW 260630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/260630Z/261800ZDEC2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZDEC2002//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZDEC2002//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251751ZDEC2002//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 251800Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WAS LOCATED NEAR 7.9N6
86.7E1, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST OF SRI LANKA, TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 252100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 5.6N1 89.0E7,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF SRI LANKA. A 260001Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATED A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 25 KNOT WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS PRIMARILY INDUCED BY A WESTWARD WIND
BURST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS IN MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 251200Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S1 61.2E9, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75
KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 251500) FOR MORE
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S1
86.8E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7S2 88.2E8, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WHICH APPEARS TO
BE CONSOLIDATING IN THE MID-LEVELS. EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT
THE AREA IS ORGANIZING AND MAY BE DEVELOPING A BANDING FEATURE
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
SEE REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 251800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE
CONTINUING ORGANIZATION OF THE AREA AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/LAM/SHERRY/EDBERG//

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