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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj:  Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS31 PGTW 250900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- NEAR 11.8S0 72.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 72.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 12.8S1 71.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 13.7S1 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 14.7S2 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 15.7S3 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 72.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 250530Z5 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK BANDING
FEATURES ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM BOTH THE NORTHEAST
AND THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN EAST TO
WEST ELONGATED LLCC WITH LIGHT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOUND WITHIN
90 NM EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
CLEARLY EVIDENT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO
TURN SOUTHWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THIS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH THE BETA ADVECTION
MODELS EARLY THEN TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS
BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0 AND 260900Z7.//

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