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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status: RO
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WTXS31 PGTW 242100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- NEAR 11.3S5 74.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 74.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 12.4S7 72.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 13.4S8 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 14.2S7 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 15.0S6 69.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 74.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VARIOUS AREAS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY LARGE LLCC
WITH WINDS IN AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY AND A LARGE
AREA OF 5 TO 10 KNOT WINDS IN THE CENTER. HIGHER WINDS ARE
EVIDENT WITHIN THE CONVECTION. IN THE AREAS OF CONVECTION. TC
20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL,
AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z6 AND 252100Z0.//

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