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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS31 PGTW 230900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z1 --- NEAR 21.1S4 53.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 53.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 22.2S6 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 23.4S9 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 24.5S1 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 25.6S3 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 53.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST
OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 230530Z5 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A 36 NM EYE DIAMETER IS
NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 10S (DINA) WILL BEGIN
TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL STEER THE
SYSTEM POLEWARD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED SOUTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 AND
240900Z5.//

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