

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g28EjNx22890
for <[email-masked]>; Fri, 8 Mar 2002 22:45:23 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.11.6/8.11.6) with ESMTP id g28EjKn11905
for <[email-masked]>; Fri, 8 Mar 2002 22:45:20 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g28EjB606624;
Fri, 8 Mar 2002 08:45:11 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release
1.8d) with spool id 811915 for [email-masked]; Fri, 8 Mar
2002 08:45:11 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g28Ej9613406 for
<[email-masked]>; Fri, 8 Mar 2002 08:45:10 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) id
IAA21768 for [email-masked]; Fri, 8 Mar 2002 08:45:05 -0600
(CST)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Fri, 8 Mar 2002 08:45:05 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000232c6

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 11.3S5 53.5E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 53.5E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 12.0S3 52.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 13.0S4 51.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 14.5S0 50.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 16.3S0 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 20.0S2 49.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 53.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST OF CAPE AMBRE, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING COVERAGE OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
UPPER LEVELS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 18S IS
SITUATED ON THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND REORIENTS
THE STEERING FLOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS COMPRISE GFDN, AVN,
NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.