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Date:         Thu, 14 Feb 2002 19:01:25 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Rmks/
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS21 PGTW 150100
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 17.8S6 52.2E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 142330Z3 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0 50.5E0.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S1 .7E0  IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0 50.5E0, JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING
ORGANIZATION OF A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS IN A REGION OF
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160100Z8.

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