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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS31 PGTW 251200
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1.TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 12.0S3 72.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 72.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 12.5S8 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 13.0S4 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 13.6S0 72.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 14.5S0 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 72.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A WEAK BANDING FEATURE IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES AN ELONGATED
LLCC OR THE POSSIBILITY OF DUAL CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS AND A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z6 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 AND 262100Z1.

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