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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS31 PGTW 080300
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 14.5S0 93.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 93.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 15.7S3 90.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.9S6 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.3S2 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.8S8 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 92.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 072300Z2 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS CONTINUED
ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE 0723000Z2 TRMM PASS REVEALED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS
WITH A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE TURING MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF FOUR AVAILABLE NWP MODELS
(NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, AND GFDN). TC 21S SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//

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