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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022889

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/041800Z/051800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040751Z FEB 02/
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040752Z FEB 02/
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 040600Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S4 77.4E8 AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 040900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 040600Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1S9 121.0E4 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32
PGTW 040900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0S0
38.0E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S1 42.4E0, NEAR THE COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS EVIDENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS BENEATH A REGION OF
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND AIDING MASS DIVERGENCE OVER
THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/BRYANT/JACOBS/KUMAGA//

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