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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS31 PGTW 200900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 21.0S3 58.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 58.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 22.0S4 58.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 23.0S5 58.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 24.3S9 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 25.7S4 59.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6 58.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 TO 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS A 24 NM EYE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY BEGINNING IN THE MID-PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NGPS, AND GFDN MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO SLOW AND FAST
CLUSTERS, WITH GFDN HAVING THE GREATEST TRANSLATION SPEED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. ALL THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM
WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD BIAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8, 202100Z5, 210300Z6 AND 210900Z2.//

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