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Date: Sat, 16 Nov 2002 11:28:49 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/161800z/171800znov2002//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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ABIO10 PGTW 161800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/161800Z/171800ZNOV2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161351ZNOV2002//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 161200Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA) LOCATED
NEAR 10.8S9 72.5E4, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 161500) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.3S8
69.1E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0S6 71.3E1, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS WITH
DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REGION IS UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/CUTMAN/JUAREZ/ANDERSON//

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