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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400024510

ABIO10 PGTW 090500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/090500/091800Z MAY 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081352Z MAY 02//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751Z MAY 02//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 081200Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.4N8 60.4E0, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N2
95.1E5, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N0 95.0E4 APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WHILE A 090232Z6 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BROAD AND DISORGANIZED. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. UW CIMSS CHARTS
REVEAL WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 080600Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0 55.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST OF THE
NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, TRACKING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2S7
96.8E3, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1S6 96.7E2, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION WITH GREATER ORGANIZATION. A 081711Z8
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALS CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE MID LEVELS AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/NUTONGLA//

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