

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g4BLf7x24899
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 12 May 2002 05:41:07 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.2/8.12.2) with ESMTP id g4BLf3ub003544
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 12 May 2002 05:41:05 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g4BLeI670158;
Sat, 11 May 2002 16:40:18 -0500
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release
1.8d) with spool id 1919406 for [email-masked]; Sat, 11
May 2002 16:40:18 -0500
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g4BLeH650662 for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 11 May 2002 16:40:17 -0500
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) id
QAA24604 for [email-masked]; Sat, 11 May 2002 16:40:10 -0500
(CDT)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Sat, 11 May 2002 16:40:10 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 24s (errol) Warning Nr 005
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000245d9

WTXS32 PGTW 112100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 6.1S7 95.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.1S7 95.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 6.3S9 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 6.7S3 93.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 7.2S9 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 7.5S2 91.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 6.2S8 95.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS
CYCLING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 111602Z1 TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) 37 GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTED A WEAK
SECONDARY CIRCULATION DIRECTLY WEST OF TC 24S. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
23S (KESINY) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.