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Date: Wed, 25 Dec 2002 09:23:13 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Ocean Reissued/251530z/251800zdec2002//
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ABIO10 PGTW 251530
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/251530Z/251800ZDEC2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZDEC2002//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZDEC2002//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 240600Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WAS LOCATED NEAR 5.7N2
83.1E2, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTIO PGTW 240900) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.3N7
81.1E0 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
1.A.(1) FOR DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 241200Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S9 63.2E1, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO
70 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 241500) FOR MORE DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 7.4S1 86.8E2,
APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLIC AND DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED WITH A BUFFER CELL OVER THE EQUATOR, HAS
MOVED SOUTH AND BEGUN TO PERSIST. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE TO HIGH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/INGRAM/LAM/VAN LOAN/COOK//

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