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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40002330b

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/091800Z/101800Z MAR 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091353Z MAR 02//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 091200Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WAS LOCATED NEAR
12.9S2 51.9E5, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE D=AMBRE,
MADAGASCAR, AND WAS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 091500) FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5
131.1E6 IN THE ARAFURA SEA IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5 130.6E0,
APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS
NEAR 13.5S9 99.4E2 APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/KUMAGA//

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