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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:
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WTXS31 PGTW 212100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 19.3S3 58.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 58.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.6S6 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 19.8S8 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.3S5 53.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 21.2S5 53.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 58.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 211738Z2 SSM/I PASS IS NO
LONGER INDICATING CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH 26 NM EYE DIAMETER NOTED
IN LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS RIDGE BY 36
HOURS AND ALLOW FOR TC 10S (DINA) TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) WHICH ARE
ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWEST MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.//

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