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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS31 PGTW 262100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 15.2S8 74.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 74.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 16.1S8 74.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 17.0S8 74.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 17.8S6 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 18.6S5 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 74.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 261730Z9 INFRARED AND A 261701Z7 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE

WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 75 KNOTS. THE 2617091Z6 MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED A BANDING EYE
FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS INTO TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER, TC 20S FORWARD SPEED OF ADVANCE WILL SLOW AS A LOW TO
MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD INHIBITING ITS POLEWARD
MOVEMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OFF THE WESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. AFTERWARDS, TC 20S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO SHEAR THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP
AVIATION, GFDL, UKMET SPECTRAL, AND BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TLAPS
MODELS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND THE DEEP BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND
272100Z2.//

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