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Date:         Sat, 23 Mar 2002 12:21:13 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40002376b

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/231800Z/241800Z MAR 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5
83.3E4, IS NOW NEAR 9.8S7 77.0E4, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WITH
INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND A LARGE
CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE SYSTEM INDICATES ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE TIME BEING. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UW-CIMMS CHARTS SHOW
THERE IS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 11.0S2.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/SHERRY//

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