

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g15N1pG14411
for <[email-masked]>; Wed, 6 Feb 2002 07:01:51 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.11.6/8.11.6) with ESMTP id g15N53I97353
for <[email-masked]>; Wed, 6 Feb 2002 07:05:04 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g15N4u615294;
Tue, 5 Feb 2002 17:04:56 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release
1.8d) with spool id 566706 for [email-masked]; Tue, 5 Feb
2002 17:04:55 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g15N4r612526 for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 5 Feb 2002 17:04:53 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) id
RAA12423 for [email-masked]; Tue, 5 Feb 2002 17:04:49 -0600
(CST)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Tue, 5 Feb 2002 17:04:49 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022906

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 16.8S5 79.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 79.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 17.1S9 80.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 17.6S4 80.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 18.4S3 81.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 19.2S2 81.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 79.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS FILLED. 200MB ANALYSIS
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS
UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 12S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN),
GFDN, TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND UK-MET GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  13S
(CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.