

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g48MZA822181
for <[email-masked]>; Thu, 9 May 2002 06:35:10 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.2/8.12.2) with ESMTP id g48MZ5ub056892
for <[email-masked]>; Thu, 9 May 2002 06:35:07 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g48MYx639632;
Wed, 8 May 2002 17:34:59 -0500
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release
1.8d) with spool id 1868151 for [email-masked]; Wed, 8
May 2002 17:34:44 -0500
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g48MYY638748 for
<[email-masked]>; Wed, 8 May 2002 17:34:35 -0500
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) id
RAA15129 for [email-masked]; Wed, 8 May 2002 17:34:27 -0500
(CDT)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Wed, 8 May 2002 17:34:27 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000244f1

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 12.0S3 53.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 53.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 12.2S5 51.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.5S8 49.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 12.8S1 48.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.0S4 46.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 52.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INCREASED OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE HAS AIDED THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RECENT SHORT TERM TREND OF
INTENSIFICATION WILL GIVE WAY IN THE MID PERIOD TO A SLOW WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR,
INTERACTING WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND AVIATION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.