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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:
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WTXS31 PGTW 200900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 18.0S9 64.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 64.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 18.5S4 62.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 19.0S0 60.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 19.2S2 58.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.6S6 56.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 63.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 200530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 KNOTS. IMAGERY
ANALYSIS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND OF THE TOPS OF THE
CONVECTIVE RING, AS WELL AS THE EMERGENCE OF A DISTINCT (APPROX) 19
NM EYE. THEREFORE, WE BUMPED UP THE INTENSITY TO 130 KNOTS. A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF MADAGASCAR TO (APPROX) 30.0S3 60.0E6 SHOULD INFLUENCE A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET
SPECTRAL) AND THE DEEP LAYER BETA ADVECTION MODEL BASED ON THE
200000Z2 NOGAPS RUN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND 210900Z2.//

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