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Date:         Thu, 9 May 2002 01:44:10 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Rmks/
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS22 PGTW 090630
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1S7 97.8E4 TO 7.9S6 93.3E5
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050600Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 6.4S0 97.5E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS EAST
OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 TO
30 KNOTS. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UW CIMSS CHARTS
REVEAL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100621Z0.//

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