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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status: RO
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ABIO10 PGTW 221300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/221300Z/221800Z MAR 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5S2
81.5E4, IS NOW NEAR 8.7S 83.3E4, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS

ALONG WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MIGRATING TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE
LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UW-CIMSS CHARTS SHOW THERE IS WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 11.0S2. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: ADDED PARA 3.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

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