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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s (chris) Warning Nr 003
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022878

WTXS32 PGTW 040900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 17.1S9 121.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 121.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.8S6 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 18.7S6 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.7S7 120.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.4S6 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 121.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST
OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL RAGGED EYE AND BANDING FEATURE FORMING IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE PERIPHERAL
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 13S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION
(AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND
050900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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