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Date:         Thu, 9 May 2002 16:22:02 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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WTXS32 PGTW 092100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090621Z MAY 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 7.0S7 96.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.0S7 96.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 7.3S0 95.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 7.6S3 94.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 7.8S5 93.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 8.0S8 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 7.1S8 96.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 091739Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS REVEALS WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 18 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 090621Z MAY 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 090630). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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