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Date:         Wed, 15 May 2002 12:30:35 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000246f8

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800/161800Z MAY 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF TC 24S
(ERROL) HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS NEAR 16.5S2 101.0E2,
APPROXIMATELY 800 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
BEING SHEARED FROM THE NORTH. RECENT QUIKSCAT DEPICTS CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN A REGION OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA//

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