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Date: Sat, 07 Dec 2002 11:09:11 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/071800Z/081800ZDEC2002//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4
57.8E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6 56.8E9, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS WEAK. THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC REMAINS
CYCLIC, DISORGANIZED AND SPARSE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO STRONG.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HEATH/EDBERG//

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