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Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2002 08:40:25 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 03b Warning Nr 001
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTIO31 PGTW 111500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 15.3N9 85.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N9 85.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 17.5N3 86.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.0N2 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 22.5N9 90.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 24.7N3 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 26.6N4 96.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.8N4 85.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35, AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION AND
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72
HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS ABOVE THE RIDGE AXIS INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING
SUPERcEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 101651Z NOV 02 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 101700) NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z5, 120300Z6, 120900Z2 AND 121500Z9.//

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