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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022b49

ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/131800Z/141800Z FEB 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5
135.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S2 136.8E8 OVER LAND APPROXIMATELY
350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN AUSTRALIA. A SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS AT 131114Z1 DEPICTED A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATION, BUT THERE
IS LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER. SIGNIFICANT AND
PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL WEST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 15.0S6
131.1E6. THE LOW HAS TRACKED EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES 25-
30 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS
NEAR THE LLCC. WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR THE SYSTEM ARE PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS NEAR 18.0S9 51.4E0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
CONVECTION PERSISTS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS A POTENTIAL WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER INDICATED IN ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY. MODELS
INCLUDING NOGAPS AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IN 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/BRYANT/JACOBS/KUMAGA//

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