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Date:         Sat, 11 May 2002 05:01:12 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 02b Warning Nr 004
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000245cb

WTIO32 PGTW 110900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 12.7N0 95.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N0 95.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 14.3N8 95.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 15.8N4 95.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.4N2 96.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.1N1 96.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 22.5N9 98.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.1N5 95.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF
RANGOON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 MULTISPRECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF EGRR, AVN, NOGAPS AND THE MEDIUM BAROTROPIC
ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 14
FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2.//

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