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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s (dianne-jery) Warning Nr 006
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e400023bbf

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-JERY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 17.8S6 88.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 88.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.5S5 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 21.5S8 86.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 23.2S7 86.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 25.1S8 87.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 87.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE-JERY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 105 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS HAD STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS THAT HAS HELPED INTENSIFY THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
15.0S6 AND IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
EASTWARD PERIPHERY MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND ENHANCE THE PERIPHERY
EASTERN RIDGE, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, TC 21 IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS DEVELOPED BY THE PASSING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF FIVE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS
INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, TCLAPS, AND GFDN.
TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN 12 HOURS AND
THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND 101500Z7.//

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