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Date: Sun, 24 Nov 2002 19:39:02 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Africa):
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

ABIO10 PGTW 250030
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 241800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.4N0 88.3E9, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ANDAMAN
ISLANDS, TRACKING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 242100) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 03S
(BOURA) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 7.6S3 48.7E9, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM NORTH
OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 1.A.(1) AND ADDED FAIR
AREA TO PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/STATEN/KUMAGA//

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