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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS31 PGTW 100300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 14.7S2 50.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 50.7E2
---

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 16.8S5 50.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.9S8 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 20.8S0 50.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 23.2S7 51.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 50.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE D=AMBRE, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 23 NM EYE. TC 18S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND A TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 18S WILL CHANGE TO A POLEWARD TRACK IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN DUE TO CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR=S EAST COAST AND IT=S PASSAGE SOUTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z1 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5.//

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