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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:
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WTXS31 PGTW 172100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 15.5S1 58.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 58.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 16.8S5 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 18.3S2 59.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 19.7S7 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 21.1S4 59.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 58.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 171730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THEN
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND
AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS ARE IN TWO CLUSTERS, WITH AVN AND
EGRR SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK AND NOGAPS AND GFDN TRACKING TC 15S MORE
RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PRINCIPLE DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE THE
STRENGTH OF INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.//

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