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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 22s (bonnie) Warning Nr 010
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400023d43

WTXS32 PGTW 141500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 13.7S1 105.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 105.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.8S3 103.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 16.0S7 101.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 16.6S3 100.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 16.9S6 98.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 104.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A 141036Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED. TC 22S IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND REMAINS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR NORTHWEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT TRAVELS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
OUTFLOW TO INSTIGATE CONVECTION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL,
NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, AND BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TLAPS AND TCLAPS
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 AND 151500Z2.//

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