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Date:         Sun, 5 May 2002 16:43:18 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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WTXS31 PGTW 052100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 10.4S5 62.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 62.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 10.9S0 60.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 11.3S5 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 11.3S5 57.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 11.3S5 55.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.5S6 61.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE VORTEX HAS TUCKED FURTHER
BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. THAT, AND IMPROVED VENTILATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, HAS HELPED THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AVN,
AFWA MESOSCALE MM5) WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST. AN
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9.//

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