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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS31 PGTW 220900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- NEAR 19.5S5 56.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 56.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 19.9S9 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 20.5S7 54.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 21.4S7 53.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 22.5S9 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 56.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 42 NM EYE
DIAMETER IS NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS RIDGE BY 24 HOURS AND ALLOW FOR TC 10S
(DINA) TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) AND CLIPPER WHICH ARE ALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND
230900Z4.//

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