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Date:         Fri, 10 May 2002 22:00:58 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 02b Warning Nr 003
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000245c0

WTIO32 PGTW 110300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 12.0N3 95.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N3 95.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 13.1N5 95.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 14.3N8 95.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 15.6N2 95.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.8N5 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 18.6N5 96.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.3N6 95.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF
YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DIFFLUENT
EASTERLIES OVER THE REGION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, AVN, AND THE
MEDIUM BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z2 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1, 111500Z8, 112100Z5
AND 120300Z6.//

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