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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS31 PGTW 080900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 19.7S7 83.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 83.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 20.5S7 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 21.5S8 84.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.4S8 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.4S9 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 83.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
TC 12S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, UK-MET GLOBAL,
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TLAPS AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//

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