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Date:         Fri, 10 May 2002 11:12:20 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Northio
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000245a1

WTIO32 PGTW 101500 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 10.8N9 94.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N9 94.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 11.9N1 94.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 13.2N6 94.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 14.5N0 93.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 15.9N5 93.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.1N3 94.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, HAS DEVELOPED IN ANDAMAN SEA
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. TC 01A HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING WINDS
UP TO 40 KNOTS EAST OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS,
YET THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP, INCLUDING NOGAPS, AVN, AND UKMET.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 101021Z5 MAY 02
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 101030). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z4, 110300Z5, 110900Z1, AND 111500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 01A WARNING (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CHANGE FUTURE WARNING TIMES TO REFLECT 6
HOURLY UPDATES FOR TC 02B.//

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