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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022aa6

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 111000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/111000Z/111800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 110600Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.0S5 85.0E3 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTXS31 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION AND DEEP SURFACE LOW HAS PERSISTED
OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. THIS AREA HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES AT 8 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN AT 13.2S6
132.2E8. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE DARWIN
RADAR SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN BANDS. SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE 25-
30 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF DARWIN, AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE SYSTEM TRACKS BACK OVER WATER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999.0 MB. BASED ON THE EXPECTED
TRACK INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED A POOR AREA CURRENTLY OVER LAND
BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK OVER WATER IN NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MORRIS/NUTONGLA//

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