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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS31 PGTW 070300 COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 11.7S9 59.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S9 59.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 12.0S3 57.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 12.4S7 54.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 12.9S2 53.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 13.9S3 51.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.5S2 50.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0 58.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 062300Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED
WRAPPING DEEP CONVECTION ENCOMPASSING A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 18S WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS
GUIDED BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER THIS TIME
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENABLING A MORE POLEWARD
TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z3 AND 080300Z1. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED THE
DATE FOR MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FROM 170000Z8 TO
070000Z7.//

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