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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022e6b

ABIO10 PGTW 230000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/230000Z/231800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 221800Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 26.4S2 64.0E0, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTHEAST OF
PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND WAS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 222100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0
42.1E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2S4 40.8E2 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S3
109.5E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S9 109.2E2, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE AREA IS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATE PARA 2.A.(1) AND DOWNGRADE AREA
IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN//

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