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Date:         Sat, 6 Apr 2002 04:49:05 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Rmks/
To: [email-masked]
Status: RO
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WTXS21 PGTW 061100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S0 101.3E5 TO 13.5S9 95.7E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060830Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 101.1E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6 100.9E0 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 101.1E3, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING BAND IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE
060000Z6 200 MB ANAL REVEALED THAT THE AREA IS UNDERNEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN
APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATED 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071100Z9.//

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