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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:
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WTXS31 PGTW 090900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 21.6S9 84.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 84.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.5S9 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.3S8 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 24.4S0 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 25.5S2 84.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.8S1 84.8E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 090530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 18-NM
CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND INDICATES WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH INCREASINGLY STRONGER SHEAR SOUTH. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 12S
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASINGLY
STRONGER SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND UK-MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.//

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