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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40002280d

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021421 FEB 01/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N0
78.0E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N5 78.6E1, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH
WEST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021230Z8 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE EQUATOR. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN

AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EQUATORWARD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 020600Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED
AT 14.2S7 81.7E6 AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
020900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8
119.0E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 121.5E9 APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 020913Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A LLCC

NEAR RECENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS BENEATH A REGION OF WEAK DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE AXIS OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE REGION IS MINIMAL AS
WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL

FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/EDBERG//

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