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Date:         Thu, 17 Jan 2002 01:22:56 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Rmks/
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS21 PGTW 170630
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S0 75.3E5 TO 12.2S5 71.8E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
170530Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S1
75.2E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S7 75.8E0 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.2S1 75.2E4, ABOUT 200 NM ESE OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION
OF A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT
170309Z0 SSMI PASS ALONG WITH 170328Z1 PARTIAL TRMM PASS BOTH
INDICATE INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC WITH
DEVELOPING BANDING IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180630Z8.//

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