

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g1B7YXU16048
for <[email-masked]>; Mon, 11 Feb 2002 15:34:33 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.11.6/8.11.6) with ESMTP id g1B7YKW69727
for <[email-masked]>; Mon, 11 Feb 2002 15:34:21 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g1B7YB614096;
Mon, 11 Feb 2002 01:34:11 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release
1.8d) with spool id 638637 for [email-masked]; Mon, 11
Feb 2002 01:34:11 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g1B7Xo663990 for
<[email-masked]>; Mon, 11 Feb 2002 01:34:06 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) id
BAA20339 for [email-masked]; Mon, 11 Feb 2002 01:33:34 -0600
(CST)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Mon, 11 Feb 2002 01:33:34 -0600
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022a9c

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 25.3S0 85.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S0 85.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 27.2S1 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 29.1S2 84.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 31.2S6 83.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 33.2S8 82.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 25.8S5 85.7E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-
EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED ABOUT 90 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. TC 12S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND SHOULD
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE 12-HOUR POINT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UK-MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE
NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND
120900Z2.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.