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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e4000247cf

ABIO10 PGTW 180530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/180530/181800Z MAY 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/171952Z MAY 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1N0
91.1E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5N4 90.5E4 OVER THE NORTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE REFLECTED MORE IN THE MID
LEVEL THAN AT THE SURFACE BASED ON THE 171524Z0 37GHZ TRMM PASS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21
PGTW 170200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 3.0S3 90.0E9
APPROXIMATELY 675 NM WEST OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BEGINNING AT
171800Z7, HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION BEGAN DYING DOWN AT APPROXIMATELY
180000Z9 REVEALING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 180002Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS
REVEALED A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/JACOBS/SHERRY//

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