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Date: Sat, 23 Nov 2002 08:29:30 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N:    01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTIO31 PGTW 231500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z8 --- NEAR 11.4N6 88.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N6 88.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 12.6N9 88.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 13.6N0 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 14.6N1 89.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 16.0N7 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 18.2N1 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.7N9 88.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231130Z0
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY RECENTLY INDICATED A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS THE
CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS A RESULT OF EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE. TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72
HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z8 IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO WWPN31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 222051Z
NOV 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 222100) NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 AND 241500Z2.//

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