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Date:         Thu, 9 May 2002 09:39:34 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400024540

WTIO31 PGTW 091500 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 011A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 15.0N6 56.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N6 56.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 15.9N5 54.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.1N9 53.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.7N6 52.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.2N8 56.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION (J8CV5) OF 41 KNOTS
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS STILL PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN SECTOR, WHILE THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE
EAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BUT SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OMAN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
LAND, ENTRAINING DRY AIR. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE 20 HOUR
MARK ALONG OMAN=S SOUTHERN COAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET SPECTRAL MODEL,
ALL FORECAST AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, AVIATION AND GFDN MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 14 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT CHANGED TO 14
FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND 101500Z7.//

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