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Date:         Wed, 8 May 2002 17:33:19 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01a Warning Nr 008
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000244f2

WTIO31 PGTW 082100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 13.8N2 59.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N2 59.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 14.6N1 58.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 15.3N9 57.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.1N8 55.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 17.2N0 54.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.0N5 59.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS AGAIN MOVED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH COVERS THE
ENTIRE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT
VENTILATION FOR THE SYSTEM. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES OMAN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND,
ENTRAINING DRY AIR. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED AT THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG OMAN=S SOUTHERN COAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL EXTENDING
OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET SPECTRAL
MODEL, ALL FORECAST AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND ON THE FOLLOWING DYNAMIC
AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, AVIATION AND GFDN MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2,
090900Z8, 091500Z5 AND 092100Z2.//

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