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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:
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WTXS31 PGTW 020900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 14.2S7 83.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 83.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 14.3S8 81.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 14.3S8 80.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 14.4S9 80.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 14.7S2 80.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 82.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEN, TC 12S IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND
MOVE POLEWARD AS THE SYSTEM IS AFFECTED BY STRONG EQUATORIAL
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP IN AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET
GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
022100Z5 AND 030900Z2.//

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