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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s (chris) Warning Nr 001
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022832

WTXS32 PGTW 030900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 15.7S3 121.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 121.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 16.8S5 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 17.6S4 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 18.5S4 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 19.5S5 118.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 121.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. TC 13S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST

OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AVIATION (AVN), AND BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF DYNAMIC MODELS AND BAROTROPIC ADVECTION
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 15 FEET. THIS

WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 030221Z FEB 02
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 030230). NEXT WARNINGS

AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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