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Date:         Tue, 29 Jan 2002 06:30:11 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e40002269c

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 291230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/291230Z/291800Z JAN 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 3.0N3 90.0E9 AND
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
DEVELOPED WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS
IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10.5S6 99.9E7 AND
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 281120Z4 QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED WEAK CYCLING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LLCC. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS THAT
THE LLCC HAS ENTERED AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 12-
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED DISTURBANCE IN PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/BRYANT/MORRIS/LAM/WEAVER//

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