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Date: Sun, 17 Nov 2002 11:16:22 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/171800z/181800znov2002//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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ABIO10 PGTW 171800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/171800Z/181800ZNOV2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171351ZNOV2002//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 6.3N9 74.9E0,
APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF BROAD MID LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH
DISORGANIZED AND CYCLIC CONVECTION. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE IN THE REGION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 171200Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA) LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S0 68.8E2, APPROXIMATELY 387 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO
80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 171500) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0S6
71.3E1 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/INGRAM/JACOBS/CUTMAN/JUAREZ/ANDERSON//

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