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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj:  Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status: RO
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WTXS31 PGTW 260900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- NEAR 13.5S9 73.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 73.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 15.0S6 74.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 15.9S5 74.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 16.5S2 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 17.1S9 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 73.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 260530Z6
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. LATEST
ANIMATED IMAGERY IS NOW INDICATING A RAGGED EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING
IN TC 20S. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. TC
20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS INTO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW
FORWARD SPEED AS A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD INHIBITING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF TC 20S
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT
NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS
BECOMING INHIBITED BY INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH THE MEDIUM/DEEP BETA
ADVECTION MODELS AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 21 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING BY THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(FLENUMMETOCCEN DATA MONTEREY CA). FUTURE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER PEARL HARBOR UNDER THE SAME MANOP
HEADER (WTXS31 PGTW). NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 AND 270900Z8.,,

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