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Date:         Mon, 11 Feb 2002 11:45:42 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e400022abe

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/111800Z/121800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 110600Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
25.3S0 85.7E0 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
110900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND DEEP SURFACE LOW PERSISTS
NEAR 13.1S5 132.0E6, OVER LAND SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. THE
LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING.
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES 25-30 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF DARWIN,
AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE ARAFURA SEA PROVIDING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999.0 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/MAYER/WEAVER/TON//

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