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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e400024551

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/091800/101800Z MAY 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091352Z MAY 02//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090751Z MAY 02//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091021Z MAY 02//
REF/D/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090621Z MAY 02//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND REF C AND D ARE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 091200Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.0N6 56.7E8, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 091500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N0
95.0E4, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N4 95.3E7 APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
WEST OF MALAYSIA. A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION
(TRMM) PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A SMALL VORTEX. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. SEE REF C
(WTIO21 PGTW 091030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 090600Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 51.2E8, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST OF THE
NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, TRACKING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1S6
96.7E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9S5 97.2E8, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS EAST
OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 TO
30 KNOTS. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. SEE REF D (WTXS22 PGTW 090630) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/RONSSE/DUKES//

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