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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022e13

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 26.2S0 62.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S0 62.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 27.9S8 64.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 29.5S6 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 31.2S6 69.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 32.8S3 73.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 26.6S4 62.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MID-PERIOD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEGUN AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
HAVE COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR),
NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS FORECAST THE SAME
TRACK DIRECTION FOR TC 15S, BUT DIVERGE IN THEIR FORECAST SPEEDS
WITH GFDN REMAINING THE FASTEST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE NGPS AND EGRR MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.//

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