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Date:         Sat, 13 Apr 2002 10:30:35 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 22s (bonnie) Warning Nr 008
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400023d15

WTXS32 PGTW 131500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 12.0S3 109.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 109.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 12.7S0 106.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 13.7S1 103.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.6S1 101.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 15.7S3 99.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 108.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY INTERACTION WITH JAVA. DEEP
CONVECTION DECREASED DRAMATICALLY AND HAS ONLY RECENTLY REDEVELOPED,
RESULTING IN A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). TC 22S IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND REMAINS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR NORTH
WEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. DEVELOPMENT IS FORECASTED TO BE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE, AIDED BY PROXIMITY NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND IMPROVED LOW LEVEL
INFLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SIX DYNAMIC
AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, AND
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TLAPS AND TCLAPS MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND
141500Z1.//

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