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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status: R
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WTXS31 PGTW 190900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 16.5S2 66.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 66.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 17.4S2 65.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 18.1S0 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 18.5S4 62.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 18.8S7 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 66.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
190530Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. AN EARLIER 190134Z8
TRMM (37 GHZ) PASS DEPICTED A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE AND A STRONG
CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT
CENTER SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO
BUILD GRADUALLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CREATING A MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL) AND THE
DEEP BETA ADVECTION MODEL BASED OFF OF THE 190000Z0 NOGAPS RUN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 AND 200900Z1.//

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