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Date:         Thu, 31 Jan 2002 19:54:07 -0600
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Rmks/
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS21 PGTW 010200
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S9 88.2E8 TO 13.5S9 84.2E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 312330Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 88.0E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 89.9E6 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 88.0E6 APPROXIMATELY 960 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 311145Z QUIKSCAT
PASS OVER THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN A REGION OF WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DECAY THE WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RELAX ALLOWING FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION WITH THE
SURFACE CENTER. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020130Z6.//

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