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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:
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WTXS31 PGTW 020900 AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 14.2S7 81.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 81.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 14.3S8 80.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 14.4S9 79.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 14.5S0 78.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 14.7S2 78.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 81.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 INFRARED

AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION WAS BUILDING OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO SLOW TC 12S AND STEER
THE SYSTEM POLEWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS

FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN,
AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST
TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE
DYNAMIC MODELS. THE FORECAST WAS AMENDED BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE

AND ANALYSIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FEATURE INFLUENCING THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 AND 031500Z9.//

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