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Date: Mon, 25 Nov 2002 11:00:41 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 009
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTIO31 PGTW 251500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- NEAR 15.2N8 87.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N8 87.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 15.3N9 86.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 15.4N0 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 15.3N9 85.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.2N8 87.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH OF
CALCUTTA, INDIA. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2 VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NEW CONVECTION
HAS FORMED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS RESULTING IN A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER INDIA CAUSING A SLOW
WESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 04B AS IT TRACKS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR), JAPANESE GLOBAL MODEL, AND GFS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET GLOBAL. EGRR DEPICTS INTERACTION
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL THE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON EGRR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE
OVER INDIA PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND PROVIDES AUNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 13 FEET.
REFER TO WWPN31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

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