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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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X-UIDL: 35b414e4000245b4

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 15.2S8 46.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 46.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 16.0S7 46.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.5S2 45.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 16.9S6 44.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.2S0 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 46.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAHAJANGA, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TRACK.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
AND THE SHALLOW BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND
112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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