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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    1. Tropical Cyclone 11s (eddy) Warning Nr 007
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e4000225ef

WTXS32 PGTW 270900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 21.6S9 88.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 88.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 23.1S6 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 23.7S2 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 24.3S9 82.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 25.1S8 80.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 88.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM SOUTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PERSISTENT BANDING FEATURE. TC
11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY MORE WESTWARD AS THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
APPROACHES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF THE UK MET
GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE CLUSTERED
IN TWO GROUPS IN REGARD TO FORECAST TRACK. NGPS/AVN CONTINUE TO PULL
THE SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY WESTWARD WHILE EGRR/GFDN ARE INITIALLY
INDICATING A SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BEYOND THE
24 HOUR PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
EGRR/GFDN THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS LEANING TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF
ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 AND 280900Z9.

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