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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022885

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 041430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/REISSUED/041430Z/041800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751Z FEB 01/
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030752Z FEB 01/
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N4
77.0E4 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 030600Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S0 79.6E2 AND WAS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A

(WTXS31 PGTW 030900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 030600Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S3 121.3E7 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32

PGTW 030900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S9
37.5E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0S0 38.0E1, NEAR THE COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS DRIFTED OFF THE COAST INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS BENEATH A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND AIDING MASS DIVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/MORRIS/LAM/WEAVER//

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