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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022b72

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/140600Z/141800Z FEB 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8S2
136.8E8 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A SUSPECT AREA
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS NEAR 18.0S9 51.4E0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
CONVECTION PERSISTS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS A POTENTIAL WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER INDICATED IN ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY. MODELS
INCLUDING NOGAPS AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IN 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATE SUSPECT AREA IN PARA 2.B.
(1).
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//

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