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Date:         Thu, 2 May 2002 13:00:33 -0500
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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400024283

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800/031800Z MAY 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021000Z MAY 02
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4S9
46.0E0, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE AREA IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5S1
69.0E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S5 62.2E0, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE SEYCHELLES ISLANDS, AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REF A). ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGRY DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH
MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS BROAD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21
PGTW) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 4.9N3 81.4E3,
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGRY  AND A 021249Z8 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE A BROAD,
WEAK LLCC. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE DIFFLUENCE. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMEN
T
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICA CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

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