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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s (dianne) Warning Nr 007
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e400023bf4

WTXS31 PGTW 100300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 19.0S0 88.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 88.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 20.9S1 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 22.9S3 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 25.0S7 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 27.2S1 90.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 88.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE-JERY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. A 092246Z3 TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BEING SHEARED BY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. TC 21S
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 15.0S6. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 21S HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION BY 48 HOURS. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF FOUR AVAILABLE NWP MODELS
INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, AND GFDN. TC 21S IS
EXPECTED WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
22S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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