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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj:  Tropical Cyclone Warning
To: [email-masked]
Status: RO
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WTXS31 PGTW 240900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232330Z MAR 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 10.4S5 75.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 75.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 11.3S5 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 12.3S6 73.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 13.4S8 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 14.3S8 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 10.6S7 75.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 VISUAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATES A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION
MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 12 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 232330Z
MAR 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 232330) NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND 250900Z6.//

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