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Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2002 12:19:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXII, Probability=32%, Report=SUBJ_HAS_SPACES

ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/231800Z/241800ZDEC2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231151ZDEC2002//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZDEC2002//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.1N4
80.6E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.3N7 81.1E0, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH
OF SRI LANKA, AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (SEE REF A). A 231419Z0 SSM/I PASS DEPICTED BANDING FEATURE
DEVELOPMENT. THE VORTEX APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB.
BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVED DEVELOPMENT, AND THE RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
AND LATEST DVORAK INTENSITIES INDICATING 30 TO 35 KNOTS, A WARNING
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED AT 231800Z4. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 231300)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 231200Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S2 66.4E6, ABOUT 420 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND
WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 231500) FOR MORE
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6
68.3E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.02 66.4E6 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/RONSSE/ANDERSON/NUTONGLA//

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