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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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WTXS31 PGTW 050900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 10.1S2 64.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 64.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 10.3S4 63.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 10.7S8 61.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 11.1S3 60.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 11.4S6 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.1S2 64.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
050530Z3 MULTI-SPECTRAL AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF
THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DECOUPLED TO THE WEST. A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP
(NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MESOSCALE MM5) WAS USED AS
A BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST. TC 23S SHOULD TRACK UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO
INHIBITED OUTFLOW AND LACK OF ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND
060900Z5.//

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