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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022838

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 031200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/REISSUED/031200Z/031800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751Z FEB 01/
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030752Z FEB 01/
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.1N5
78.6E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N4 77.0E4, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 030600Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S0 79.6E2 AND WAS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A

(WTXS31 PGTW 030900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 030600Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S3 121.3E7 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32

PGTW 030900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1
121.5E9 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(2) FOR DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 18.0S9 37.5E5,
NEAR THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) MAY HAVE DRIFTED OFF THE COAST IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AND UPDATED PARA
1.B.(1), 2.A.(1), AND 2.A.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/MORRIS/LAM/WEAVER//

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