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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
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X-UIDL: 35b414e400022bf3

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 15.8S4 51.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 51.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 15.0S6 52.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 14.2S7 53.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 13.8S2 54.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.1S6 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 52.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM OFF THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. TC 15S HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BANDING FEATURE FORMING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN IN AN EASTWARD DIRECTION
BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND AVIATION
(AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 150051Z FEB 02 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 150100). NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z6 AND 162100Z0.//

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