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Date: Sun, 24 Nov 2002 02:50:38 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 004
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTIO31 PGTW 240900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 14.0N5 88.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N5 88.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 14.9N4 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 15.7N3 88.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 16.6N3 89.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 17.4N2 89.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 18.4N3 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.2N7 88.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC
REPORTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARD 60 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD OVER INDIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PROPAGATE
EASTWARD. TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS
INTO THE WEAKNESS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS ABOVE THE RIDGE
AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL,
AND AVN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS
ABOVE THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS
16 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9,250300Z0, 250900Z6 AND 251500Z3.//

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