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Date: Sun, 24 Nov 2002 08:10:41 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 005
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTIO31 PGTW 241500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- NEAR 14.9N4 88.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N4 88.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 15.5N1 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 16.2N9 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 16.9N6 88.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 17.5N3 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 18.4N3 90.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.1N7 88.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARD 65
NM TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER INDIA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD. TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH 30 HOURS INTO THE WEAKNESS AND THEN TURN
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL, AVN, AND JAPANESE GLOBAL, ARE
IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE GFDN MODEL DEPECITS A STRONGER LOW LEVEL
RIDGE OVER INDIA RESULTING IN A EASTWARD TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, MINUS GFDN, AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERCIAL SHEAR AND
THE CURRENT SHEAR CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z9 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 AND 251500Z3.//

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