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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s (chris) Warning Nr 006
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
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X-UIDL: 35b414e4000228fb

WTXS32 PGTW 052100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 19.8S8 120.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 120.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.7S9 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.5S8 119.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.3S7 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 23.1S6 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.0S2 120.1E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOWS A SMALL IRREGULAR
EYE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 13S SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE GREAT SANDY DESERT IN NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND TLAPS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER LAND. GFDN
REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER INDICATING A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER LAND
THAN ANTICIPATED. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z5 AND 062100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  12S (FRANCESCA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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