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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The
Indian
To: [email-masked]
Status:  O
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e4000244f7

ABIO10 PGTW 090000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/090000/091800Z MAY 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081352Z MAY 02//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751Z MAY 02//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 081200Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.4N8 60.4E0, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8N2
94.7E0, HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 8.4N2 95.1E5 APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING
SCATTERED CYCLING CONVECTION PERSISTING WITH NO INDICATIONS OF A
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THIS TIME. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 080600Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0 55.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST OF THE
NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, TRACKING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2S7
96.8E3, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1S6 96.7E2, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION WITH GREATER ORGANIZATION. A 081711Z8
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALS CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE MID LEVELS AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/RONSSE/DUKES//

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