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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS31 PGTW 070900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 17.9S7 82.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 82.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.5S4 82.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 19.1S1 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.9S9 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.8S0 84.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 82.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 12S HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD IN THE SHORT
TERM BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD AS RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. TC 12S SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSIST OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, AND UK-MET GLOBAL. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//

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