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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:    1. Tropical Cyclone 11s (eddy) Warning Nr 009
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400022634

WTXS32 PGTW 280900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 22.6S0 84.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 84.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 23.3S8 83.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 23.9S4 81.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 22.8S2   84.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM SOUTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH DISSIPATING
CONVECTION. RECENT TRMM AND SSMI PASSES OVER TC 11S FURTHER SUPPORT
A STRONGLY SHEARED SYSTEM. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TC 11S WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS
IN A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVES INTO COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS
10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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