

by imaila.ust.hk (8.11.0/8.11.0) with ESMTP id g3E2kO015411
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 14 Apr 2002 10:46:24 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.2/8.12.2) with ESMTP id g3E2kKox015707
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 14 Apr 2002 10:46:22 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g3E2kI619358;
Sat, 13 Apr 2002 21:46:18 -0500
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release
1.8d) with spool id 1377038 for [email-masked]; Sat, 13
Apr 2002 21:46:18 -0500
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222]) by
vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g3E2kI627630 for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 13 Apr 2002 21:46:18 -0500
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.9.3+Sun/8.9.3) id
VAA26607 for [email-masked]; Sat, 13 Apr 2002 21:46:12 -0500
(CDT)
Message-ID:  <[email-masked]>
Date:         Sat, 13 Apr 2002 21:46:12 -0500
Reply-To: [email-masked]
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 22s (bonnie) Warning Nr 009
To: [email-masked]
Status:
X-Mozilla-Status: 8001
X-Mozilla-Status2: 00000000
X-UIDL: 35b414e400023d28

WTXS32 PGTW 140300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 12.4S7 107.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 107.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 13.3S7 105.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.5S0 102.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 15.7S3 100.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 16.8S5 99.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 106.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED 290 NM SOUTH OF JAVA,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. A 132315Z5 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. TC 22S IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS AND REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR NORTHWEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND THE
MEDIUM BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 AND 150300Z9.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.