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Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject:      Indian-S:  Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
To: [email-masked]
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WTXS31 PGTW 092100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 22.1S5 84.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 84.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.2S7 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 24.4S0 84.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 25.5S2 84.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 26.6S4 84.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8   84.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BANDING EYE
FEATURE. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH INCREASINGLY STRONGER SHEAR SOUTH. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 12S
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASINGLY
STRONGER SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND UK-MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4.//

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