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Date: Tue, 19 Nov 2002 12:45:09 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTIO30 FMEE 191800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 10/3/20022003
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BOURA)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC  19/11/2002 : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF
POINT 14.7S/61.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 4.0/4.0  /S  /24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 57 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
NE30: 150 KM   SE30: 300 KM
SW30: 300 KM   NW30: 150 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 15.3S / 59.2E FI=4.0

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 15.5S / 57.6E FI=4.0

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 15.3S / 54.0E FI=3.5

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
TO BOURA RELMAINS FLUCTUATING, AND IS NOW INTENSIFYING. THE
TRACK SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE WESTWARD AS THE HIGH
PRESSURES REBUIDS SOUTH TO MADAGASCAR.=

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