

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 (built Feb 21 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sun, 12 Jan 2003 16:34:04 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.5/8.12.5) with ESMTP id h0C8Xwx5079516	for <[email-masked]>;
Sun, 12 Jan 2003 16:34:00 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h0BJXWWQ015742; Sun,
12 Jan 2003 02:19:39 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8d)
with spool id 455486 for [email-masked]; Sun,
12 Jan 2003 02:19:39 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h0C8JcCw035548
for          <[email-masked]>; Sun, 12 Jan 2003 02:19:38 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id h0C8Jbid020551
for          <[email-masked]>; Sun,
12 Jan 2003 02:19:37 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          h0C8Jbah020550 for [email-masked]; Sun,
12 Jan 2003 02:19:37 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sun, 12 Jan 2003 02:19:37 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 11.4S6 179.9W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 179.9W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 12.4S7 179.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 13.9S3 180.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 15.6S2 179.5W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 17.9S7 177.8W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 180.0E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P,
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI  HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, WITH A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, BEFORE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD, AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP,
UK MET OFFICE, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND
130900Z3.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.