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Date: Sun, 09 Mar 2003 20:28:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 16.7S4 67.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 67.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.2S0 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 17.8S6 65.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.7S6 65.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.9S9 65.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 67.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) AND QUIKSCAT PASSES REVEAL A
DECREASING INTENSITY TREND, AND THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 23S. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK AROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS THE RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD,
TC 23S FORECAST TRACK WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS.
TC 23S WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
MORE RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT PAST THE RIDGE AXIS AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AFWA MM5
MODELS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND THE UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS ARE BIASED EAST AND WEST, RESPECTIVELY. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

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