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Date: Mon, 13 Jan 2003 02:33:40 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 14.4S9 179.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 179.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 16.7S4 179.6W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 20.1S3 178.3W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 23.8S3 175.3W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 26.7S5 168.7W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 179.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTHEAST OF
SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE, WITH STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM,
PROVIDING INCREASED OUTFLOW ABOVE THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL, BUT INCREASES TO THE SOUTH.
TC 10P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 10P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24 TO 36
HOURS, AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AND THEN, MOVE INTO, THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4.//

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