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Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 15:20:41 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 21.5S8 61.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 61.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 23.8S3 63.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 25.7S4 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 27.5S4 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 28.4S4 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.1S5 61.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 102 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ERODED ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A BANDING EYE
FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 16S SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5,
AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA)
WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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