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Date: Mon, 10 Mar 2003 14:50:15 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 12.5S8 158.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 158.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 13.1S5 159.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 13.8S2 160.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 14.7S2 160.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.0S7 161.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 158.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT
WINGEART, USN.//

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