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Date: Sat, 01 Mar 2003 20:41:51 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 23.1S6 37.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 37.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 22.7S1 36.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 22.3S7 35.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 22.0S4 34.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 21.6S9 33.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 23.0S5 36.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. THE MID-LEVEL
HAS BUILT IN OVER THE SOUTH AFRICAN CONTINENT AND IS EXPECTED TO
GUIDE TC 19S NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST
AS THE RESULT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND CONTINUED WEAK UPPER LEVEL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN,
AFWA MM5 AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 021500Z8 AND 030300Z6. RELEASED BY CAPT
LEEJOICE, USAF.//

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