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Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 04:20:09 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS33 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 004
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 17.0S8 68.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 68.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.6S3 69.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.2S9 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 16.1S8 72.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 17.0S8 74.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 68.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
BEING ENHANCED BY A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 24 NM EYE AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. TC 17S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE
NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND
130900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)
(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 16S (GERRY)(WTXS32 PGTW), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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