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Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 13:34:35 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Ocean/041800z/051800zfeb2003//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/041800Z/051800ZFEB2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9
114.6E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8 114.1E7 APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH OF JAVA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS POORLY DEFINED
CONVECTION NEAR A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2
98.4E1, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 98.2E9 APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND OVERNIGHT
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATE THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE
EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR BUT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND WILL LIKELY BE THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LATER TODAY.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KENDALL/JACOBS/VAN LOAN/NUTONGLA//

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