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Date: Wed, 05 Mar 2003 02:40:42 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 16.2S9 115.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 115.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.9S6 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 17.8S6 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 18.9S8 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 20.0S2 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 21.5S8 111.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 115.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 21S HAS DECREASED IN AREAL SIZE,
AND SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SHEARED
APPROXIMATELY 40 NM FROM THE WEAK DEEP CONVECTION. TC 21S CONTINUES
TO ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE
INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36
HOURS BEFORE ULTIMATELY REVERSING COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY
GRADUALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 050600Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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