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Date: Fri, 07 Mar 2003 21:05:40 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 080300 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 006A AMENDED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 13.8S2 71.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 71.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 14.4S9 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.2S8 68.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 16.4S1 67.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 18.8S7 65.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 71.0E8.
THE WARNING IS AMENDED BASED ON A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND,
GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S
(KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. A 072318Z1 TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALS A 30 NM EYE. TC 23S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS
ABOVE THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
23S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
IN A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND THE UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z4 AND 090300Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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