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Date: Sun, 02 Mar 2003 08:36:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTXS31 PGTW 021500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 22.2S6 35.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 35.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 21.6S9 34.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 21.3S6 33.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 20.9S1 32.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 20.5S7 31.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 35.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24
HOURS. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH
LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
(EGRR) AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 AND 031500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT
WINGEART, USN.//

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