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Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 15:38:15 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS34 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 002
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 15.3S9 81.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 81.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 15.8S4 81.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 16.3S0 81.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 16.8S5 82.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 17.7S5 82.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 81.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING
OVER THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MOVEMENT
IS GUIDED BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE SITUATED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD. TC 14S (FIONA) IS EXPECTED TO TURN
POLEWARD AND CREATE A WEAKNESS FOR TC 18S TO FOLLOW. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 24
HOURS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THEN INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS, DO NOT
INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM WELL, BUT ALL TRACK THE SYSTEM POLEWARD IN THE
WAKE OF TC 14S. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 16S (GERRY)(WTXS33
PGTW), AND TC 17S (HAPE)(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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