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Date: Fri, 28 Feb 2003 01:34:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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ABIO10 PGTW 280730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/280730Z/281800ZFEB2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151ZFEB2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271951ZFEB2003//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 280000Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.1S5 38.7E8, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 280300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 271800Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GRAHAM) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.9S7 120.4E7, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 272100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE SURFACE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9S7
120.2E5, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND IS NOW
THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA 2.A.(2) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6 94.5E8,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD, SOMEWHAT WEAK, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CYCLING AND DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS ALSO
INDICATES A LLCC IS PRESENT IN A LOCATION JUST POLEWARD OF ENHANCED
WESTERLY WINDS. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: LT BRYANT, USN.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING STATUS
AND ADDED WARNING INFORMATION IN PARA 2.A.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/NUTONGLA//

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