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Date: Mon, 03 Feb 2003 11:48:29 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Ocean/031800z/041800zfeb2003//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/031800Z/041800ZFEB2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5
115.9E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9 114.6E2 APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAVA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS POORLY
DEFINED CONVECTION NEAR A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH A POINT SOURCE
NEAR THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
NEAR 10.7S8 98.5E2, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK LLCC AND ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KENDALL/JACOBS/VAN LOAN//

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