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Date: Wed, 12 Mar 2003 03:42:11 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS33 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 13.9S3 139.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 139.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 14.9S4 142.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 15.6S2 144.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 16.3S0 146.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 16.8S5 148.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 140.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE GULF
OF CARPENTARIA, WAS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE YORK AND
THEN INTO THE CORAL SEA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER CAPE
YORK AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINER OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO POOR OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF
ABOVE LISTED AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3. REFER TO TC 22P
(ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) AND TC 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//

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