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Date: Thu, 27 Feb 2003 20:17:06 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 23.0S5 37.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 37.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 23.6S1 37.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 24.2S8 36.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 24.1S7 36.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 23.7S2 36.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 37.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
272330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. TC 19S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS
IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
AFTERWARDS, TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY IN THE
WEAKNESS UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AFRICA PROPAGATES
EASTWARD AND PUSHES TC 19C EQUATORWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19S FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS
EQUATORWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ENCOUNTERS SOME
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS,
GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL (EGRR) AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 AND 010300Z4.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  20S (GRAHAM) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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