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Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 03:20:23 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 20.8S0 168.9W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 168.9W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.0S4 169.3W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.5S0 169.2W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 25.2S9 169.0W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 26.8S6 169.1W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 169.0W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090530Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS AND
SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
MORE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND INTO UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS,
GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z5 IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.//

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