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Date: Tue, 28 Jan 2003 09:20:55 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 281500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 19.6S6 50.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 50.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 20.5S7 48.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 21.2S5 47.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 22.0S4 45.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 22.5S9 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 49.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST
OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES LAND. A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH MADAGASCAR.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND
AVN ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3
IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 AND 291500Z7.//

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