

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Thu, 06 Feb 2003 22:44:53 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.5/8.12.5) with ESMTP id h16EilBF094551	for <[email-masked]>;
Thu, 06 Feb 2003 22:44:48 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h160wgm0007686; Thu,
06 Feb 2003 08:39:28 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8d)
with spool id 850568 for [email-masked]; Thu,
06 Feb 2003 08:34:23 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h16EYMCw044434
for          <[email-masked]>; Thu, 06 Feb 2003 08:34:22 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id h16EYMid000742
for          <[email-masked]>; Thu,
06 Feb 2003 08:34:22 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          h16EYMoh000741 for [email-masked]; Thu,
06 Feb 2003 08:34:22 -0600 (CST)
Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 08:34:22 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 12.0S3 108.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 108.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 12.2S5 107.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 12.6S9 105.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 13.3S7 104.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 14.3S8 102.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 16.1S8 99.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 108.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 55, AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9, 070300Z0, 070900Z6 AND 071500Z3.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.