

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Tue, 11 Feb 2003 11:14:23 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.5/8.12.5) with ESMTP id h1B3EHZD022262	for <[email-masked]>;
Tue, 11 Feb 2003 11:14:19 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h1AIfgsY031146; Mon,
10 Feb 2003 21:10:59 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8d)
with spool id 925965 for [email-masked]; Mon,
10 Feb 2003 21:10:59 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h1B3AwCw025296
for          <[email-masked]>; Mon, 10 Feb 2003 21:10:58 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id h1B3Avid003765
for          <[email-masked]>; Mon,
10 Feb 2003 21:10:57 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          h1B3AvOT003764 for [email-masked]; Mon,
10 Feb 2003 21:10:57 -0600 (CST)
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 21:10:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 14s (fiona) Warning Nr 015
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTXS31 PGTW 110300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 015
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.8S6 92.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 92.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.9S8 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 20.6S8 90.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 22.2S6 90.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 23.7S2 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 91.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BY MID-PERIOD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND
NCEP GFS TRACK TC 14S INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A
PASSING MID-LAT TROUGH. NOGAPS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE
OTHER AIDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
FIRST GROUP OF DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z2 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.