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Date: Thu, 06 Mar 2003 07:58:51 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s (harriet) Warning Nr 013
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 061500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 19.4S4 114.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 114.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 20.1S3 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 20.9S1 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.8S1 111.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 22.8S2 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 25.5S2 108.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 114.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC
21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR),
TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061200Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9, 070300Z0,
070900Z6 AND 071500Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT
WINGEART, USN.//

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