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Date: Fri, 14 Mar 2003 08:03:08 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXX, Probability=30%, Report=LINES_OF_YELLING,
SPAM_PHRASE_01_02, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY, UPPERCASE_75_100, __UPPERCASE_75_100

WTXS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 24.8S4 65.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S4 65.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 26.1S9 65.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 28.1S1 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 31.0S4 64.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 34.3S0 65.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 25.1S8 65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141130Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH THE
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 90 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BELOW
THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 AND
151500Z2. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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