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Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 20:32:50 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 14s (fiona) Warning Nr 017
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 120300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 017
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 20.0S2 91.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 91.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 21.7S0 91.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 22.9S3 92.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 24.0S6 93.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 25.0S7 95.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 91.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
112330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CYCLED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
MOVES EASTWARD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), AND AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE AFWA MM5
TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AS A RESULT OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION
WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS THE MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND
130300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  17S
(HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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