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Date: Tue, 28 Jan 2003 22:22:50 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 20.3S5 48.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 48.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 20.6S8 46.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 21.8S1 44.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 23.5S0 43.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 25.2S9 43.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 48.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI) MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY
290000Z1, 30 NM SOUTH OF MAHANORO, MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. TC 11S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER 12 HOURS, TC 11S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING
OVER MADAGASCAR, HOWEVER DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS EXPECTED. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND GFDN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1
IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 AND 300300Z6.//

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