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Date: Sat, 15 Feb 2003 23:24:17 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/151800z/161800zfeb2003//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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ABIO10 PGTW 151800 COR
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/151800Z/161800ZFEB2003//
REF/A/RMG/FLENUMETOCCEN MONTEREY CA/151513ZFEB2003//
REF/B/RMG/FLENUMETOCCEN MONTEREY CA/150844ZFEB2003//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 3.3N6 92.5E6,
APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF SIMEULUE ISLAND. RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA
INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN THE WIND FIELD.
ANIMATED SATELLITE DATA INDICATES MODERATE SPORADIC CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 151200Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 27.8S7 66.8E0, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTHEAST OF
PORT LOUIS, TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 151500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) AT 150600Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.3S5 76.5E8, 800 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33
PGTW 150900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE DATE TIME
GROUPS AND PARA 2.A.(2) REF B MANOP TIME AND REMARKS.
4. ALTERNATE JTWC SENDS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/EMERY/COOK/GAMBLE/WHISENANT//

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