

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Fri, 07 Mar 2003 10:06:28 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.8/8.12.8) with ESMTP id h2726FMh011451	for <[email-masked]>;
Fri, 07 Mar 2003 10:06:17 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.8/8.12.8) with ESMTP id h26Lm1Qo011192; Thu,
06 Mar 2003 19:58:17 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8d) with spool id 1354503 for
[email-masked]; Thu, 06 Mar 2003 19:58:15 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.8/8.12.8) with ESMTP id h271wDiw041652
for          <[email-masked]>; Thu, 06 Mar 2003 19:58:14 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id h271w8id020819
for          <[email-masked]>; Thu,
06 Mar 2003 19:58:08 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          h271w8K6020818 for [email-masked]; Thu,
06 Mar 2003 19:58:08 -0600 (CST)
Date: Thu, 06 Mar 2003 19:58:08 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTXS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 114.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 114.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.5S5 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.1S3 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.9S1 111.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 22.5S9 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 26.0S8 108.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 114.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THE 48 HOUR POINT, INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR),
TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 062330Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 071500Z3.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT MAZANY, USAF.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.