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Date: Fri, 10 Jan 2003 11:42:30 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Ocean/101800z/111800zjan2003//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 101800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/101800Z/111800ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101351ZJAN2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100551ZJAN2003//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A SIGNIFICANT/
TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC/
OCEAN//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 101200Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.1S3 69.8E3, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 101500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER LAND NEAR
14.5S0 134.5E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S9 134.5E3, APPROXIMATELY 350
NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS
OVER LAND, PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 996 MB. SEE REF B (ABPW10 PGTW
100600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/INGRAM/JACOBS/VAN LOAN/COOK//

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