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Date: Fri, 07 Mar 2003 08:01:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
WTXS32 PGTW 0715001. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 19.3S3 113.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 113.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 19.8S8 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.7S9 110.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 22.2S6 109.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 24.4S0 108.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 28.8S8 110.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 113.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 071041Z3 SSM/I DEPICT THAT CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS
AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BY
MID 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. GFDN
ANALYZES A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0, 080300Z1, 080900Z7 AND 081500Z4.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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