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Date: Mon, 03 Mar 2003 22:21:35 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 040330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/040330Z/041800ZMAR2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZMAR2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031952ZMAR2003//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 031200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.8S0 33.6E2 OVER LAND, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTHWEST OF
VILANCULOS, MOZAMBIQUE, TRACKING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 031500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.
(2) AT 031800Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WAS LOCATED AT 14.7S2
111.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA,
TRACKING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 032100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9
79.0E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8 78.5E0, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR AND
UPDATED PARA 2.A.(2).
4. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/JACOBS/ANDERSON//

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