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Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 03:30:33 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 13.3S7 53.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 53.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 14.8S3 54.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 16.2S9 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.7S5 56.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.3S3 57.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 53.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
INTERACTION WITH TC 17S (HAPE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 17S (HAPE)
(WTXS33 PGTW), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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