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Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 18:14:42 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 12.0S3 108.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 108.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 12.2S5 106.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 12.8S1 105.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.4S8 103.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 14.1S6 101.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 16.3S0 98.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 107.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 70 KNOTS. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD SHORT TERM, THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 72 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z0, 070900Z6, 071500Z3 AND 072100Z0.//

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