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Date: Sun, 09 Mar 2003 08:20:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 16.1S8 67.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 67.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.6S3 67.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.1S9 66.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 17.6S4 65.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.6S5 65.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 67.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 125 KNOTS. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALS THAT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO ERODE ON THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN MORE POLEWARD, AROUND THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. TC 23S WILL
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER RELATIVELY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND 101500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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