

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sun, 26 Jan 2003 10:53:28 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.5/8.12.5) with ESMTP id h0Q2rLAK035682	for <[email-masked]>;
Sun, 26 Jan 2003 10:53:22 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h0PMATL2018204; Sat,
25 Jan 2003 20:43:21 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8d)
with spool id 662509 for [email-masked]; Sat,
25 Jan 2003 20:43:20 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h0Q2hKCw038124
for          <[email-masked]>; Sat, 25 Jan 2003 20:43:20 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id h0Q2hIid019054
for          <[email-masked]>; Sat,
25 Jan 2003 20:43:18 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          h0Q2hIxS019053 for [email-masked]; Sat,
25 Jan 2003 20:43:18 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sat, 25 Jan 2003 20:43:18 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTPS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- NEAR 12.2S5 161.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 161.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 12.4S7 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 12.5S8 160.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 13.3S7 160.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 14.9S4 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 161.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY
NORTH DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
252330Z5 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS AND TURN POLEWARD AS A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 12P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 AND
270300Z2.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.