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Date: Tue, 04 Mar 2003 20:41:50 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 20.2S4 154.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 154.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 19.2S2 153.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 18.1S0 152.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 17.4S2 150.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.6S3 149.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 153.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM, EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
042330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED A DECREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 AND 060300Z9.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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