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Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 21:06:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 001
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS34 PGTW 110300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 14.0S5 81.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 81.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 15.3S9 80.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 16.7S4 80.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 18.0S9 80.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 19.3S3 81.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 81.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTHEAST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BY MID-PERIOD. TC
18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN MORE SLOWLY BY
48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS, DO NOT
INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM WELL, BUT GENERALLY TRACK THE SYSTEM POLEWARD
IN THE WAKE OF TC 14S. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  17S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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