

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sat, 15 Feb 2003 20:27:40 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.5/8.12.5) with ESMTP id h1FCRYZD000346	for <[email-masked]>;
Sat, 15 Feb 2003 20:27:36 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h1F6B7N0043680; Sat,
15 Feb 2003 06:17:06 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8d) with spool id 1003656 for
[email-masked]; Sat, 15 Feb 2003 06:17:06 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h1FCH5Cw034458
for          <[email-masked]>; Sat, 15 Feb 2003 06:17:05 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id h1FCH2id024455
for          <[email-masked]>; Sat,
15 Feb 2003 06:17:02 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          h1FCH2B6024454 for [email-masked]; Sat,
15 Feb 2003 06:17:02 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sat, 15 Feb 2003 06:17:02 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTXS32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 26.9S7 65.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S7 65.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 27.8S7 67.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 28.7S7 68.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 29.1S2 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 27.1S0   65.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEVOID OF CONVECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT
FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AND EXTENDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. A MORE WELL DEFINED AREA OF CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE A MODERATE WARM FRONT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EVIDENT
IN THE MODEL FIELDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND AN ASSOCIATED GRADIENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTIUES TO WEAKEN AND
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN
DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MAINTAINED STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
MODELS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z2 AND 160300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW 142100) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ALTERNATE
JTWC SENDS.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.