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Date: Thu, 30 Jan 2003 20:00:10 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- NEAR 22.1S5 168.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 168.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 23.2S7 166.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 24.0S6 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 24.3S9 162.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 24.0S6 159.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8  167.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO
55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 AND
010300Z4.//

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