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Date: Thu, 27 Feb 2003 08:01:21 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 22.0S4 38.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 38.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 22.5S9 38.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 23.1S6 37.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 23.1S6 36.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 22.2S6 35.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.1S5 38.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST OF THE EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEAR TERM TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, A WESTWARD BECOMING
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE BEGINNING TO BE ADVERSELY
AFFECTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTIONS AFTER 36 HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS
THEN FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DUE TO LANDFALL OVER
MOZAMBIQUE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET
SPECTRAL (EGRR) AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//

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