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Date: Tue, 04 Mar 2003 15:26:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
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WTXS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 15.1S7 113.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 113.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.7S3 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.6S3 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.0S9 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 19.3S3 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 20.3S5 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 113.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 40 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 21S CONTINUES TO
ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE
INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, THEN MORE POLEWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTH OF SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL CONTINUING AS THE
FARTHEST OUTLIER HOLDING TC 21S TO AN EASTERLY TRACK. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR AND PERSISTENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z8, 050900Z4, 051500Z1 AND 052100Z8.
RELEASED BY: LT SMITH, USN.//

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