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Date: Fri, 28 Feb 2003 01:50:48 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRAHAM) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 18.3S2 120.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 120.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 18.9S8 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 19.6S6 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 20.4S6 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 121.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GRAHAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25,
30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
BECOMING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
AUSTRALIA AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND
AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL (TLAPS) AND REGIONAL (TCLAPS) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TLAPS AND TCLAPS.
THESE TWO MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM MORE SOUTHEASTWARD THAN OTHER AIDS
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON TCLAPS AND
TLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 AND 010900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S
(JAPHET) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//

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