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Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 20:10:59 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTXS31 PGTW 090300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 15.3S9 99.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 99.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 16.2S9 98.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.9S6 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.8S6 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.7S6 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 99.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 14S HAS A 15 NM IRREGULAR EYE AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY
THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER 24
HOURS AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET
(EGRR), AFWA MM5 AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z9 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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