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Date: Mon, 10 Mar 2003 08:41:37 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100021Z MAR 03//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 16.0S7 172.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 172.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.7S4 172.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 17.4S2 172.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 18.0S9 173.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 18.4S3 174.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 172.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 30 KNOTS. TC 25P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
TC 25P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4
IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 100021Z MAR 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

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