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Date: Tue, 28 Jan 2003 22:22:50 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- NEAR 16.4S1 162.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 162.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 17.3S1 164.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 18.1S0 165.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 19.2S2 166.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 20.7S9 166.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 162.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 282330Z8 MULTISPECTAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A 21 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY
SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OF THE SYSTEM
STARTING IN 24 HOURS AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND SHIFT ITS
TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND THIS RIDGE. TC 12P IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY PERIOD AND REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE MID-PERIOD WITH A DECLINE IN INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS POLEWARD
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z7 AND 300300Z6.//

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