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Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2003 14:52:55 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 12.5S8 134.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 134.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.8S1 136.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 13.2S6 138.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 13.8S2 140.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 14.5S0 142.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 135.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS
AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANTS DUE TO
TERRAIN EFFECTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND INTO THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH
36 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND NEAR CAPE YORK.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER
WATER MID-PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN), ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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