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Date: Sun, 09 Mar 2003 02:18:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS33 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 10.7S8 129.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 129.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 10.7S8 131.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 10.9S0 132.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 11.4S6 133.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 11.8S0 135.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.7S8 130.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST AT
7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES
OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR),
AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z2 AND 100900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET)
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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