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Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 20:22:11 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: South Pacific Ocean Reissued/050230z/050600zfeb2003//
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 050230
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN REISSUED/050230Z/050600ZFEB2003//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6S6 148.8E1
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
162.4W3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 163.0W0, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER AN AREA OF BROAD TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS AND
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AND
UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KENDALL/JACOBS/VAN LOAN/NUTONGLA//

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