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Date: Sat, 11 Jan 2003 23:05:05 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western
And/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXII, Probability=32%, Report=SUBJ_HAS_SPACES

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN/120600Z/130600ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111951ZJAN2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111751ZJAN2003//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A SIGNIFICANT/
TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2
108.1E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.4N6 110.9E1, NEAR KUCHING, SARAWAK,
MALAYSIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATE A TROUGH WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS MODERATE. AXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2
178.8E4, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2 178.2E8. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPOSED LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 111800Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P WAS LOCATED NEAR
11.2S4 179.2W9, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS,
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 112100) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9
135.8E7, IS NOW LOCATED OVER WATER NEAR 14.9S4 135.9E8, OVER THE
LIMMEN BIGHT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. SCATTEROMETRY AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY BROAD LLCC WITH VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPOSED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. SEE REF B (ABIO10 PGTW
111800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/RONSSE/MENEBROKER/SCHAEFER//

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