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Date: Fri, 07 Mar 2003 03:07:24 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 19.2S2 114.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 114.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 19.6S6 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 20.3S5 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 21.3S6 111.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 23.2S7 110.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 27.6S5 110.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 114.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN DUE TO AN
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3,
072100Z0, 080300Z1 AND 080900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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