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Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 08:39:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 15.4S0 73.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 73.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.4S1 74.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 17.6S4 76.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 19.2S2 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 20.9S1 79.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 73.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH TC
16S (GERRY). A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE CENTER, WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-
DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH TC 16S AND ENCOUNTERS
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
TLAPS, AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH TC 16S. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING.//

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