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Date: Fri, 07 Mar 2003 03:17:35 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 12.4S7 73.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 73.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.1S5 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.9S3 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 14.8S3 70.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 15.7S3 69.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 73.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
070530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65, 77, AND 90
KNOTS. A 070243Z6 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS A 29 NM EYE. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 23S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MM5, TLAPS, AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR)
MODELS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND
080900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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