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Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 15:03:58 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Ocean Reissued/042030z/051800zfeb2003//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 042030
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/042030Z/051800ZFEB2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041951ZFEB2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8
114.1E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 113.6E1 APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH OF JAVA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTION
NEAR A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2
98.4E1,IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 98.0E7 APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND OVERNIGHT
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATE THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE
EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21
PGTW 042000) FOR FUTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(2)TO GOOD AND PARA
2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KENDALL/JACOBS/VAN LOAN/NUTONGLA//

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