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Date: Mon, 27 Jan 2003 02:26:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/270051Z JAN 03//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (CILLA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 19.0S0 176.6W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 176.6W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 20.5S7 174.6W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 20.8S0 172.7W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 20.9S1 171.1W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 176.1W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (CILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR, ENHANCED INFRARED, VISIBLE AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEAL WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH, INDICATING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION HAS BEGUN. HOWEVER, THESE INDICATIONS HAVE REMAINED
STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, INDICATING A SLOWER TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD AND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO BUILD. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE IN THE
POLEWARD DIRECTION AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN A MORE EASTWARD TRACK
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SLOWLY CONTINUES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270051Z JAN 03 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 270100). NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z2 AND 280900Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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