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Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 16:17:46 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 15.8S4 163.4W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 163.4W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.6S3 164.1W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.7S5 165.2W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.9S8 166.4W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 20.0S2 167.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 163.6W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS, ALONG THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15P HAS
ORGANIZED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT ABOVE A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS OUTFLOW CHANNELS EXIST BOTH POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON NGPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL,
THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS, ALL IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061800Z5 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0.//

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