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Date: Wed, 05 Mar 2003 08:01:55 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 17.0S8 115.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 115.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.7S5 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.7S6 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 19.4S4 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 20.5S7 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 22.4S8 112.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 115.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM FROM THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 21S CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE
AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE
INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE ULTIMATELY REVERSING
COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR),
AND THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9, 060900Z5 AND 061500Z2. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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