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Date: Mon, 03 Mar 2003 12:16:12 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXII, Probability=32%, Report=SUBJ_HAS_SPACES

ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/031800Z/041800ZMAR2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZMAR2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030752ZMAR2003//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 031200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.8S0 33.6E2 OVER LAND, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTHWEST OF
VILANCULOS, MOZAMBIQUE, TRACKING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 031500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.
(2) AT 030600Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WAS LOCATED AT 14.7S2
110.2E4, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA,
TRACKING EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 030900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10.8S9 79.0E6.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASSES
ALSO REVEAL MID-LEVEL TURNING OVER THE AREA, BUT NO LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS OF YET. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: LT SMITH, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/INGRAM/JACOBS/NUTONGLA/COOK//

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