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Date: Tue, 01 Apr 2003 08:21:32 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXX, Probability=30%, Report=LINES_OF_YELLING,
SPAM_PHRASE_01_02, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY, UPPERCASE_75_100, __UPPERCASE_75_100

WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311351ZMAR2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 10.0S1 120.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 120.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 10.4S5 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 10.7S8 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 11.0S2 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 11.4S6 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.1S2 119.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S, LOCATED ON SUMBA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY AFTER LEAVING THE WEST COAST OF SUMBA UNDER A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND NOGAPS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z4 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 311351ZMAR03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

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