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Date: Wed, 05 Mar 2003 15:16:21 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 17.3S1 115.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 115.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.0S9 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 18.8S7 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 19.7S7 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 21.0S3 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 23.4S9 112.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 116.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RE-INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR), AND THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AVN AN OUTLIER TURNING TC 21S SHARPLY WEST. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS AVN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS ARE AT 060300Z9 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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