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Date: Thu, 09 Jan 2003 20:48:52 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 17.5S3 71.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 71.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 19.3S3 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 21.5S8 70.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 24.7S3 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 28.4S4 72.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 70.9E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OUT 24 HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES SOUTH OF SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, TC 09S
WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATES PAST. TC 09S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS, GFDN,
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z7 AND 110300Z5.//

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