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Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 19:56:46 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 100300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 16.7S4 95.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 95.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 17.3S1 92.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.3S2 89.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 19.2S2 88.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 20.2S4 86.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 94.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102
KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A 25 NM IRREGULAR EYE HAS REFORMED. RECENT
MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DRIER
AND COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. TC
14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN,
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO UNTIL 42 HOURS. AFTER THAT, SOME MODELS MAINTAIN
THE TRACKING OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE RIDGE, IN A GENERALLY POLEWARD
DIRECTION, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. OTHER MODELS, INCLUDING NOGAPS
AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, GFDN, TRACK THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD
WITH AN EQUATORWARD BIAS, DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER
CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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