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Date: Fri, 04 Apr 2003 19:40:55 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXX, Probability=30%, Report=LINES_OF_YELLING,
SPAM_PHRASE_01_02, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY, UPPERCASE_75_100, __UPPERCASE_75_100

WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 14.3S8 113.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 113.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.0S6 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.7S3 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.5S2 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.9S7 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.7S0 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 113.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 140 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS AN 18NM SYMMETRICAL EYE. TC 26S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE EARLY
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARDS, TC 26S WILL BEGIN RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 26S
WILL WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY PERIOD AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUING.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES THE RIDGE AXIS, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TC
26S. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO WITH THE POINT OF RECURVATURE CONTINUING TO DIFFER IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS. NGPS AFWA MM5 RECURVE SLIGHTLY EARLIER, MAKING FOR
LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR) AND THE AUSTRALIAN TYPHOON MODEL (TCLAPS) RECURVE
LATER, MAKING FOR LANDFALL JUST EAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NGPS AND AFWA MM5. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z4, 051500Z1, 052100Z8 AND 060300Z9.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//

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