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Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 02:28:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS33 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 006
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 15.1S7 70.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 70.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 14.4S9 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 14.8S3 73.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.2S9 74.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.1S0 75.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 71.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALED A WEAK BANDING EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
SYSTEM. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EQUATORWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN 12 TO 24
HOURS, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN A POLEWARD TRACK. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS OUTFLOW REMAINS MARGINAL. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TLAPS, AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND
140900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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