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Date: Fri, 24 Jan 2003 12:04:58 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXII, Probability=32%, Report=SUBJ_HAS_SPACES

ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/241800Z/251800ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240751ZJAN2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 240600Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S5
71.7E5, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
240900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7S6
116.4E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S8 116.6E4, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) PASS
REVEAL THAT THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
NOW CLOSE TO LAND (APPROXIMATELY 60 NM), WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER LAND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S6
68.5E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 68.1E5, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) PASS INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED, AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/INGRAM/RONSSE/ANDERSON/MENEBROKER//

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