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Date: Wed, 08 Jan 2003 20:32:46 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 14.5S0 70.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 70.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 17.0S8 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.0S0 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 21.2S5 69.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 23.1S6 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7   70.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z4 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED, AND
CONTINUED TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A WELL DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
TC 09S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC 09S AND A
FILLING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY 24 HOURS TC 09S WILL
TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG 30 SOUTH.
TC 09S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
ENTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION
(AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND
100300Z4.//

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