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Date: Mon, 10 Mar 2003 21:14:02 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 110300 RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.9S7 172.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 172.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 19.2S2 172.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 20.1S3 173.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.8S0 174.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 21.2S5 176.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 172.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 102146Z4
SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN
EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT
WINGEART, USN.//

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