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Date: Sun, 02 Mar 2003 20:19:51 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 21.2S5 34.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 34.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 20.8S0 33.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 20.6S8 32.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 20.4S6 31.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 34.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET) MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY
021930Z5 JUST SOUTH OF VILANCULOS, MOZAMBIQUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 105 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC
DATA AT VILANCULOS, 3 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL, REPORTED 40 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 57 KNOTS. TC 19S HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND
022330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING
NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 031500Z9 AND
040300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//

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