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Date: Tue, 25 Feb 2003 20:20:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252051ZFEB2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- NEAR 22.5S9 42.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S9 42.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 22.5S9 41.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 22.6S0 40.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 23.1S6 39.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 23.8S3 38.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 22.5S9 41.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM WEST OF
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND PROVIDE THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN START TO TURN POLEWARD BEHIND THE PASSING
RIDGE. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS, HAVE IMPROVED IN THEIR
INITIALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND NOW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DYNAMIC AIDS AND THE MEDIUM BETA
ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 14
FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
252051ZFEB2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
252100). NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 AND 270300Z2.//

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