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Date: Wed, 12 Mar 2003 20:31:14 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS31 PGTW 130300 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 011A AMENDED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 19.6S6 161.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 161.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 20.2S4 162.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 21.0S3 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 22.1S5 166.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 23.5S0 169.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 162.0E9.
THE WARNING IS AMENDED BASED ON AN INTENSIFICATION TREND HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND
WAS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 125 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS, AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND
NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO,
ALL MAINTAIN THE GENERAL TRACK SOUTHEAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

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