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Date: Thu, 23 Jan 2003 14:36:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231221Z JAN 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- NEAR 14.8S3 74.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 74.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 15.6S2 72.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 16.6S3 69.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 17.9S7 67.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 19.7S7 65.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 73.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS AND A
SHIP REPORT OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED OUTFLOW CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 11S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ENHANCE OUTFLOW FURTHER, INTENSIFYING THE
SYSTEM THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
CREATE SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, THE UKMET
GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 06 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 231221Z JAN 03 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 231230) NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z5 AND 242100Z9.//

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