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Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 08:07:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 14.2S7 101.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 101.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.4S0 100.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 16.5S2 98.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 17.5S3 95.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 18.4S3 93.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0  101.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102
KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 14S HAS A 16 NM EYE. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS,
GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.//

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