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Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 03:15:21 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 18.5S4 166.7W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 166.7W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.6S6 167.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.9S1 168.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.3S7 168.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.9S4 167.5W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 166.9W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. TC 15P HAS AN 11
NM SYMMETRICAL EYE.  ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW REMAINS TO THE EAST AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY THE MID-PERIOD AS IT
PROPAGATES EASTWARD, CAUSING THE TRACK TO BECOME MORE POLEWARD. TC
15P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//

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