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Date: Tue, 04 Mar 2003 01:02:34 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 040621zmar2003//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTPS21 PGTW 040630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040621ZMAR2003//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 19.5S5 152.0E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT
040530Z2 INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
20.1S3 152.1E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3S5 152.9E7 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 20.1S3 152.1E9, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH, QUIKSCAT
REVEALS ELONGATED TROUGHING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WELL AWAY FROM
THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050630Z4.
5. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF//

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