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Date: Fri, 10 Jan 2003 08:18:48 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 101500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 20.1S3 69.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 69.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 23.0S5 69.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 25.8S5 70.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 28.5S5 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 31.1S5 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 69.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6
MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77
KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS GETTING SHEARED FROM THE NORTHWEST. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
TC 09S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS,
GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8.//

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