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Date: Mon, 03 Mar 2003 18:46:59 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 032100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 14.7S2 111.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 111.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 14.9S4 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.2S8 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.9S5 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.2S0 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 111.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 21S TO BE A SMALL, RELATIVELY
SYMMETRIC SYSTEM. TC 21S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AT A STEADY STATE
OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HIDDEN UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). RECENT SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASSES INDICATE THAT TC 21S IS BEING
HAMPERED IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED
BY THE NUMEROUS ISLANDS THAT COMPRISE INDONESIA TO THE NORTH. TC 21S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, THEN MORE POLEWARD THEREAFTER IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UK MET OFFICE
(EGRR) ARE IN AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL (AVN) THE LONE
OUTLIER ACCELERATING 19S TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND
042100Z7.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: IN REMARKS, CHANGED TC 19S TO CORRECT
STORM NUMBER, TC 21S.
RELEASED BY: LT SMITH, USN//

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