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Date: Mon, 10 Mar 2003 14:42:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS33 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 11.5S7 131.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 131.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 11.9S1 132.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 12.1S4 133.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.4S7 134.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 12.7S0 135.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 131.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS.
GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER THAN UKMET, BASED ON A STRONGER STEERING
RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.RELEASED
BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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