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Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 08:19:12 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 24.6S2 63.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S2 63.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 26.2S0 64.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 27.3S2 66.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 27.8S7 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 27.5S4 69.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 25.0S7 63.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 141130Z0 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DECOUPLED
APPROXIMATELY 30 NM NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARDS
A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CAUSED BY A TRANSIENT MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN. AS A RESULT, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 16S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS DECOUPLED UNDER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS EXCEPT FOR UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR BUILDS THE RIDGE IN TO THE
SOUTH SOONER AND AS A RESULT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR),
AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 AND
151500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//

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