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Date: Fri, 14 Mar 2003 20:28:54 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXX, Probability=30%, Report=LINES_OF_YELLING,
SPAM_PHRASE_01_02, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY, UPPERCASE_75_100, __UPPERCASE_75_100

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 26.0S8 65.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S8 65.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 27.7S6 66.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 30.2S5 66.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 26.4S2 65.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23S IS EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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