

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Fri, 14 Mar 2003 16:34:19 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.8/8.12.8) with ESMTP id h2E8YBA7043717	for <[email-masked]>;
Fri, 14 Mar 2003 16:34:13 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.8/8.12.8) with ESMTP id h2DK6reS006120; Fri,
14 Mar 2003 02:19:55 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8d) with spool id 1485546 for
[email-masked]; Fri, 14 Mar 2003 02:19:55 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.8/8.12.8) with ESMTP id h2E8Jsiw034586
for          <[email-masked]>; Fri, 14 Mar 2003 02:19:54 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id h2E8Jhid026505
for          <[email-masked]>; Fri,
14 Mar 2003 02:19:43 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          h2E8JhKW026504 for [email-masked]; Fri,
14 Mar 2003 02:19:43 -0600 (CST)
Date: Fri, 14 Mar 2003 02:19:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXX, Probability=30%, Report=LINES_OF_YELLING,
SPAM_PHRASE_01_02, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY, UPPERCASE_75_100, __UPPERCASE_75_100

WTPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 23.0S5 168.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 168.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 25.3S0 172.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 27.8S7 176.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 30.5S8 179.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 32.5S0 177.8W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 169.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
AND 90 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. TC 22P HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE INTERACTING WITH NEW CALEDONIA OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING IN INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE ALL IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH UKMET (EGRR) AS THE OUTLIER AT TAU 36 AND 48 WITH A
MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
DYNAMIC AIDS EXCEPT EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.