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Date: Wed, 09 Apr 2003 12:56:45 -0500
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/091800Z/101800ZAPR2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.1S8
39.8E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7S4 40.5E9, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS, WITH CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH A MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT INTO THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WITH VERY DRY AIR ENCIRCLING
THE SYSTEM. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. DUE
TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES AND EARLY SIGNS OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: LT BRYANT, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/WAUGAMAN/KLINZMANN/NUTONGLA//

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