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Date: Sat, 11 Jan 2003 19:53:23 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 120300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 27.4S3 71.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S3 71.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 28.7S7 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 27.7S6 71.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
HAS CONTINUED WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM
WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS, GFDN, UK MET OFFICE
(EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 20 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

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