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Date: Thu, 03 Apr 2003 07:49:49 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 12.1S4 116.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 116.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 12.6S9 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 13.3S7 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 14.2S7 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.1S7 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 116.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUMBA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115
KNOTS. TC 26S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
26S IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION AT ABOVE A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN HOLD
INTENSITY BEFORE SLIGHT WEAKENING OCCURS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER A REGION OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR TIME FRAME, WHEN MORE PRONOUNCED
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR), AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, AND GFDN ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER
WEST BEFORE RECURVATURE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMIC AIDS EXCLUDING THE AVIATION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 AND
041500Z0. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

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