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Date: Sat, 08 Mar 2003 20:27:15 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 15.4S0 68.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 68.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 15.7S3 68.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 16.1S8 67.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 16.8S5 67.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.3S2 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 68.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 120 KNOTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN MORE
POLEWARD THEREAFTER, AROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 23S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER
RELATIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5,
AUSTRALIA BOM TLAPS, AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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