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Date: Thu, 06 Mar 2003 14:45:50 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 11.8S0 75.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 75.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 12.4S7 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 13.1S5 72.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 13.8S2 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 14.7S2 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 74.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 65 KNOTS.
A RECENT SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN QUADRANTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MM5,
TLAPS, AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061730Z7 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
21S (HARRIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY CAPT MAZANY, USAF.//

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