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Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 03:30:34 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS33 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 002
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 16.9S6 64.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 64.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 18.3S2 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 19.4S4 65.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 20.1S3 66.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 21.1S4 67.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 64.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 110427Z5
SSM/I PASS SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A EYE, HOWEVER THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST HAS WEAKENED RECENTLY. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSIST OF UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. EGRR
INITIALIZES WELL, WHILE AVN INITIALIZES APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES
TO THE SOUTHEAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON EGRR AND THE MEDIUM BETA
ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 16S (GERRY)
(WTXS33 PGTW), AND TC 18S (NO NAME)(WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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