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Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 21:05:46 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 22.6S0 61.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 61.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 24.7S3 63.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 26.4S2 66.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 27.9S8 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 28.6S6 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 23.1S6 62.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 AND 150300Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNING (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

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