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Date: Wed, 08 Jan 2003 11:51:31 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXII, Probability=32%, Report=SUBJ_HAS_SPACES

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/081800Z/091800ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081421ZJAN2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080551ZJAN2003//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND REF B IS A/
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH/
PACIFIC OCEAN//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 081200Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S, LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0
70.6E3, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, WAS MOVING
SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 081500 COR) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DELFINA), PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 20.8S0 37.8E8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.1S7 37.7E7,
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF INHAMBRANE, MOZAMBIQUE, MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
70.4E1 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER LAND NEAR
13.2S6 133.4E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S2 133.8E5, APPROXIMATELY 200
NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS
OVER LAND, PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS
UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. SEE REF A (ABPW10 PGTW 080600) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: JEFFRIES/HEATH/SHERRY/DUKES//

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