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Date: Sat, 08 Mar 2003 04:23:38 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTXS23 PGTW 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080951ZMAR03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S6 128.7E8 TO 10.9S0 133.6E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 080830Z9 INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8 129.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4 129.4E6 IN
THE TIMOR SEA IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8 129.4E6, APPROXIMATELY 100
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091000Z0.
4. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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