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Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 03:17:03 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 13.0S4 55.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 55.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.6S9 55.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 12.5S8 55.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.7S1 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 15.0S6 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 55.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS BEEN RELOCATED
FURTHER NORTH BASED UPON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUPPORTING CONSOLIDATION IN THIS
VICINITY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 16S IS
EXPECTED TO LOOP TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE TRACKING POLEWARD AS A
DEEPENING TROUGH WEAKENS A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE,
NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z2 AND 100900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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