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Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2003 20:46:24 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 21.3S6 174.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 174.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 22.2S6 177.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 22.4S8 179.0W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 22.7S1 175.1W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 23.8S3 170.9W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 175.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
112330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FORMATION OF AN IRREGULAR EYE WITHIN THE LAST 3
HOURS. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 12
HOURS AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW
NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
ALL THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND 130300Z7. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART,
USN.//

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