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Date: Mon, 03 Mar 2003 08:06:47 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTXS31 PGTW 031500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 20.8S0 33.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 33.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 20.5S7 32.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 20.4S6 31.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.7S9  33.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED OVER LAND, APPROXIMATELY
130 NM NORTHWEST OF VILANCULOS, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
SYNOPTIC DATA AND 031130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH 24 HOURS. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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