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Date: Sat, 08 Mar 2003 08:02:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTXS32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 20.2S4 112.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 112.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 21.5S8 111.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 23.4S9 109.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 112.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT WEAK
CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 21S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION, TLAPS, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GO0D
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS
AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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