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Date: Tue, 14 Jan 2003 14:40:25 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 25.1S8 173.4W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 173.4W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 29.2S3 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 32.5S0 159.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 26.1S9 171.9W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. TC
10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR), TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141800Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5.//

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