

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Mon, 10 Feb 2003 23:00:02 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.5/8.12.5) with ESMTP id h1AExtZD053292	for <[email-masked]>;
Mon, 10 Feb 2003 22:59:57 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h1A1xriM031146; Mon,
10 Feb 2003 08:50:39 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8d)
with spool id 912729 for [email-masked]; Mon,
10 Feb 2003 08:50:39 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.3/8.12.3) with ESMTP id h1AEocCw035948
for          <[email-masked]>; Mon, 10 Feb 2003 08:50:38 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id h1AEobid013314
for          <[email-masked]>; Mon,
10 Feb 2003 08:50:37 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          h1AEoavT013313 for [email-masked]; Mon,
10 Feb 2003 08:50:36 -0600 (CST)
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 08:50:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 16.7S4 93.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 93.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.9S6 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 17.5S3 90.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 18.9S8 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.9S1 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 93.0E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
101130Z6 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSTANT DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS TRACK TC 14S
INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A PASSING MID-LAT TROUGH.
NOGAPS AND AFWA MM5 TRACK THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH
POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE FIRST GROUP OF
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.