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Date: Wed, 08 Jan 2003 09:06:19 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 081500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 12.7S0 70.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 70.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.1S7 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 17.4S2 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.9S9 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 22.3S7 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 70.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLIC DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED,
AND HAS BEGUN TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
INITIALLY, THEN MORE SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR),
GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS LABORATORY, NAVY MODEL (GFDN), AND BETA
ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 14
FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED NUMBER OF ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES
TO ONE.//

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