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Date: Wed, 26 Feb 2003 20:15:19 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 21.3S6 39.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 39.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 21.3S6 38.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 21.6S9 37.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 22.0S4 36.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 21.8S1 35.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6 38.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
WEST OF MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN EQUATORWARD AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) AND NCEP GFS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 AND 280300Z3. RELEASED
BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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