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Date: Thu, 23 Jan 2003 12:07:44 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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ABIO10 PGTW 231800

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/231800Z/241800ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231221ZJAN2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9
75.4E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S1 75.0E2, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SYSTEM NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. REFER TO REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 231230) FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8
116.3E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7S6 117.0E9, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMOUTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION, INCREASING NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THEREFORE,
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/GRUBER/LAM/SHERRY//

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