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Date: Mon, 13 Jan 2003 14:41:41 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Amembassy Suva Req Pass To Usaid Ofda Advisor
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS31 PGTW 132100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 16.7S4 179.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 179.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 19.5S5 178.6W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 22.9S3 175.3W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 26.7S5 169.4W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 30.8S1 161.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 179.7W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BEING ENHANCED BY A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-
LATITUDE LOW NEAR NEW ZEALAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8.//

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