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Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2003 05:02:10 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS33 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 11.9S1 132.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 132.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 12.3S6 134.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.5S8 135.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 13.0S4 138.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 13.7S1 140.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 133.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY
0500Z5 WITH MAXIMUM REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS. TC 24S IS
NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER
THAN UKMET, BASED ON A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND
120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//

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