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Date: Thu, 09 Jan 2003 08:25:08 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 091500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 15.8S4 71.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 71.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 17.6S4 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 19.5S5 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 21.8S1 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 24.1S7 70.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 71.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4
ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO
55 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 24
TO 36 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES SOUTH OF SYSTEM.
AFTER 36 HOURS, TC 09S WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z4 AND 101500Z7.//

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