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Date: Sun, 06 Apr 2003 08:39:30 -0500
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 15.6S2 112.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 112.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.3S0 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.8S6 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 19.7S7 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 22.2S6 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 25.2S9 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 112.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 26S
APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED AND HAS BEGUN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC
26S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SPEED AND TURN FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INCREASES. TC 26S IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AUSTRALIA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH OUR FORECAST TRACK FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061200Z9 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9, 070300Z0,
070900Z6 AND 071500Z3. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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