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Date: Fri, 14 Mar 2003 14:32:04 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXX, Probability=30%, Report=LINES_OF_YELLING,
SPAM_PHRASE_01_02, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY, UPPERCASE_75_100, __UPPERCASE_75_100

WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 26.0S8 173.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S8 173.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 28.4S4 177.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 30.8S1 179.1W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 33.0S6 175.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 26.6S4 174.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
NORTH OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH 36 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ABOVE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR), ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z5 AND 152100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR FINAL WARNING. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART,
USN.//

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