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Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 20:22:09 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS34 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 17.7S5 84.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 84.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 18.7S6 84.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 19.7S7 85.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 20.5S7 86.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 21.2S5 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 84.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. MODELS
SUGGESTED THAT TC 18S INTERACTED BRIEFLY WITH TC 17S, SLOWING 18S
FORWARD MOTION, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PASSED OVER THE SYSTEM
WHICH INHIBITED FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN THE AFTERMATH OF THESE
EFFECTS, TC 18S IS NOW IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH 36 HOURS, AFTER WHICH TC 18S WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS
AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  17S
(HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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