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Date: Sat, 22 Feb 2003 22:19:32 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Africa):
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 230430
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN LOCATED
OVER LAND THE PAST WEEK IS NOW NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 19.0S0 122.0E5,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OVER OPEN
WATER, BUT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OVER LAND. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE LLCC TO OPEN WATER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED FAIR SUSPECT AREA IN PARA 2.B.
(1).
4. RELEASED BY: CAPT VILPORS, USAF
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/RONSSE/SPANSKI/COOK/NUTONGLA//

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