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Date: Thu, 30 Jan 2003 20:11:30 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Unclas //n03145//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=, Probability=0%, Report=

WTXS31 PGTW 310300
UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) FINAL WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- NEAR 25.8S5 42.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S5 42.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 27.6S5 43.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 28.8S8 44.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 26.3S1   42.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND
PROPAGATES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS IN AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UK MET GLOBAL, AND AVN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 09
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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