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Date: Thu, 27 Feb 2003 12:09:29 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXII, Probability=32%, Report=SUBJ_HAS_SPACES

ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/271800Z/281800ZFEB2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351ZFEB2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZFEB2003//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 271200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.1S5 38.7E8, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 271500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE SURFACE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7S5
119.2E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S7 120.2E5, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALTHOUGH RECENT SSM/I IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM STILL RESEMBLES A MONSOON DEPRESSION. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED OVER
THE AREA WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. SEE REF B (WTXS 21 PGTW 270230) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. BASED ON CONTINUING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6 94.5E8,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD, SOMEWHAT WEAK, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CYCLING AND DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS ALSO
INDICATES A LLCC IS PRESENT IN A LOCATION JUST POLEWARD OF ENHANCED
WESTERLY WINDS. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/RONSSE/ANDERSON//

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