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Date: Fri, 04 Apr 2003 07:42:39 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 13.6S0 114.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 114.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 14.4S9 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 15.3S9 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 16.1S8 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 17.1S9 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.5S5 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 114.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC
26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36
HOURS, THEN RECURVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THEREAFTER. TC 26S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE
SHORT TERM IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BECOMING MORE RESTRICTED. TC 26S ENTERS A
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AFTER 36 HOURS, AT WHICH
TIME PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN. THE UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION DYNAMIC MODELS PERSIST IN
TRACKING 26S FURTHER WEST BEFORE RECURVATURE, WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN
TURNING FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS BIASED IN FAVOR OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 AND 051500Z1. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM,
USN.//

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