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Date: Sun, 26 Jan 2003 08:17:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 12.7S0 161.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 161.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 13.0S4 160.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 13.5S9 160.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 14.3S8 160.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 15.4S0 161.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 161.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 261130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR
BEGINNING TO BE ENTRAINED FROM THE SOUTH AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS AND TURN POLEWARD AS A PASSING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 12P
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE NOGAPS,
GFDN, JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 AND 271500Z5.//

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