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Date: Thu, 06 Mar 2003 14:46:49 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 19.3S3 115.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 115.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 19.9S9 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 20.8S0 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 21.6S9 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 22.9S3 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 26.2S0 108.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 114.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC
21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THE 48 HOUR
POINT, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO AN INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN,
GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061730Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY CAPT MAZANY, USAF.//

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