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Date: Sat, 28 Feb 2004 02:59:13 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 19.3S3 117.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 117.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.4S4 116.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.9S9 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 20.7S9 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 21.8S1 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 25.0S7 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 117.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 280530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC
14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN
POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TS 14S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MID-PERIOD AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6, 282100Z3, 290300Z4
AND 290900Z0.//

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