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Date: Sat, 06 Mar 2004 07:02:00 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N:  Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 061223

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 18/9/20032004
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9  (GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/06 AT 1200 UTC :
14.8S / 52.5E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 7.0/7.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 900 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 125 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 500   SE: 550   SO: 450   NO: 350
50 KT       NE: 180   SE: 180   SO: 150   NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/07 00 UTC: 15.5S/50.8E, MAX WIND=115KT.
24H: 2004/03/07 12 UTC: 16.7S/49.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2004/03/08 00 UTC: 18.0S/47.7E OVERLAND.
48H: 2004/03/08 12 UTC: 19.5S/46.4E OVERLAND.
60H: 2004/03/09 00 UTC: 20.8S/45.8E OVERLAND.
72H: 2004/03/09 12 UTC: 22.5S/46.0E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOWS, THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED THE STAGE OF
VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE END OF LAST NIGHT (T=CI=7.0)
WITH A
VERY WELL DEFINED CIRCULAR AND WARM 20 NM DIAMETER EYE.  GAFILO SHOULD
MAINTAIN AT THIS MAXIMAL STAGE DURING NEXT HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS IT APPRO
CHES LANDS.
IT SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF MASOALA PENINSULA DURING NEXT
NIGHT OR ON SUNDAY MORNING.

GAFILO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM, AND THEN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THIS MID-LEVEL HIGH MOVES EAST
OF GAFILO.

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