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Date: Sun, 29 Feb 2004 20:22:52 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 20.5S7 115.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 115.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 21.6S9 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 22.9S3 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 24.8S4 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 115.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 292330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT TC 14S IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF BARROW
ISLAND AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. A 010100Z2 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION
AT VARANUS ISLAND NEAR 20.65S3 115.6E3 REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 63 KNOTS. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS, WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
OVER LAND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP
GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0,
011500Z7, 012100Z4 AND 020300Z5.//

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