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Date: Fri, 26 Mar 2004 15:00:54 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 262100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 022A AMENDED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 120.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 120.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 20.2S4 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 21.1S4 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 22.2S6 120.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 120.0E3.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED BASED ON A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL MUCH
SOONER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 18S
IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED DUE SOUTH AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 261720Z8 BROOME RADAR IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK DUE SOUTH BY A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. A 261756Z7 MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15 NM
DIAMETER EYE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF THE
COMMUNITY OF PARDOO AT APPROXIMATELY 270200Z1 AND WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND 272100Z2.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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