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Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2004 19:51:07 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 21.1S4 83.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 83.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 22.8S2 82.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 24.2S8 81.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 25.7S4 81.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 27.2S1 80.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 083.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
900 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30,
35 AND 45 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FULLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
WBAR, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8.//

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