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Date: Wed, 07 Jan 2004 02:09:09 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTPS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 26.2S0 163.7W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S0 163.7W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 29.3S4 160.7W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 32.0S5 158.0W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 34.7S4 155.2W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 27.0S9 162.9W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 070530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65, 77, AND 90 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS COOLER, DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED FROM
THE WEST WHICH IS CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALY, A RECENT
MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DECOUPLED TO
THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVELS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH MID-LATITUDE
NORTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE SPEED OF ADVANCE
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND BECOMES WEAKER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD  AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//

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