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Date: Sat, 07 Feb 2004 02:10:49 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 070628

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 49/6/20032004
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6  (EX-ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/07 AT 0600 UTC :
25.1S / 51.8E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE:       SE: 450   SO: 450   NO: 400

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A
VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/07 18 UTC: 24.8S/52.1E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2004/02/08 06 UTC: 24.6S/52.8E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2004/02/08 18 UTC: 24.6S/53.4E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2004/02/09 06 UTC: 24.7S/54.0E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2004/02/09 18 UTC: 25.0S/54.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2004/02/10 06 UTC: 25.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
MODELS DIFFER A LOT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK. THEY ALL MAKE IT SLOW ON
ERRATIC TRAK, BUT IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, FOLLOWING THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE
OF THE MONSOON FLOW OR THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

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