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Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2004 17:07:22 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS21 PGTW 122300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 122251Z MAR 04//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.3S7 46.9E9 TO 25.0S7 51.5E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121730Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.7S1 47.3E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 22.5S9 46.4E4,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, HAS FURTHER DEVELOPED.
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND REMAINS OVER THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 132300Z9.//

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