

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Fri, 02 Jan 2004 16:54:05 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i028tXLv081982	for
<[email-masked]>; Fri, 02 Jan 2004 16:55:35 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i014ShXr080650; Fri,
02 Jan 2004 02:42:34 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8e)
with spool id 406697 for [email-masked]; Fri,
02 Jan 2004 02:42:34 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i028gXD1093414
for <[email-masked]>; Fri, 02 Jan 2004 02:42:33 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id i028gDnN028785
for          <[email-masked]>; Fri,
02 Jan 2004 02:42:13 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          i028gD0k028784 for [email-masked]; Fri,
02 Jan 2004 02:42:13 -0600 (CST)
Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 02:42:13 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTPS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 7.9S6 174.1W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S6 174.1W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 8.6S4 173.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 9.4S3 174.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 10.4S5 174.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 12.0S3 174.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 14.9S4 173.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 8.1S9 174.0W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0
INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 45 AND 55
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P
IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN
CONTINUE RECURVING TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS ARE SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS DEPICT A SHARP RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE
TC RECURVING BACK UPON ITSELF AND CROSSING OVER THE HISTORICAL
TRACK. THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MORE
GRADUAL RECURVE SITUATION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8, 022100Z5, 030300Z6 AND 030900Z2.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.