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Date: Sat, 06 Mar 2004 12:59:39 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 061813

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 19/9/20032004
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9  (GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/06 AT 1800 UTC :
15.0S / 51.5E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 7.0/7.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 895 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 125 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 600   SE: 550   SO: 500   NO: 600
50 KT       NE: 200   SE: 200   SO: 180   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A
VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/07 06 UTC: 15.4S/49.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2004/03/07 18 UTC: 16.6S/48.0E OVERLAND.
36H: 2004/03/08 06 UTC: 18.0S/46.6E OVERLAND.
48H: 2004/03/08 18 UTC: 20.0S/45.2E OVERLAND.
60H: 2004/03/09 06 UTC: 22.0S/45.2E OVERLAND.
72H: 2004/03/09 18 UTC: 24.0S/46.2E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=7.0+.
THE EYE REMAINS CIRCULAR AND WELL DEFINED, WITH A DIAMETER OF 16 NM. THE
CENTRE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN VICINITY OF ANTALAHA, FOR THE END OF NEXT
NIGHT. DURING THE EYE CYCLE, AN EXTERNAL RING HAS FORMED (SSMI DATA)
ANNOUNCING A WEAK DIMINUTION OF STRONGER WINDS.

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