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Date: Mon, 08 Mar 2004 06:27:56 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 081231
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 26/9/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9  (GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/08 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 43.1E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 150   SE: 150   SO: 500   NO: 500

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/09 00 UTC: 20.3S/42.4E, MAX WIND=065KT.
24H: 2004/03/09 12 UTC: 21.9S/43.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2004/03/10 00 UTC: 23.4S/44.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2004/03/10 12 UTC: 24.4S/46.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2004/03/11 00 UTC: 25.3S/47.7E, MAX WIND=035KT.
72H: 2004/03/11 12 UTC: 26.2S/49.2E, MAX WIND=040KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0+. GOOD POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. ANALYSE SUPPORTED BY PRESSURES OBSERVED BY
MALAGASY STATIONS. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURES
CELL LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARDS, GAFILO
SHOULD TRACK MORE
POLEWARDS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.GAFILO IS FORECASTED TO LAND
A
SECOND TIME OVER MADAGASCAR, BETWEEN MORONDAVA AND TOLIARA OVER THE
NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS, AND CROSS THE ISLAND.=

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