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Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 19:56:00 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTPS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 9.4S3 173.9W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 173.9W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 10.7S8 173.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 12.0S3 173.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 13.3S7 173.5W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 14.8S3 172.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 19.2S2 169.0W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 9.7S6 173.9W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
022330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
CYCLING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE
STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS RESIDING IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS ENHANCED
BY THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. TC 07P HAS NOW
TRANSITIONED TO A POLEWARD STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P WILL REACH
MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN 48 TO 60 HOURS AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT LINKS UP WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, WBAR, AND NCEP
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z9 AND 040300Z7.//

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