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Date: Wed, 28 Jan 2004 14:54:21 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 281800

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/7/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7  (FRANK)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/28 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 64.1E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 180   SE: 280   SO: 200   NO: 120
50 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A
VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/01/29 06 UTC: 16.2S/63.7E, MAX WIND=070KT.
24H: 2004/01/29 18 UTC: 17.1S/63.0E, MAX WIND=075KT.
36H: 2004/01/30 06 UTC: 17.8S/62.6E, MAX WIND=080KT.
48H: 2004/01/30 18 UTC: 18.1S/62.0E, MAX WIND=085KT.
60H: 2004/01/31 06 UTC: 18.4S/61.3E, MAX WIND=090KT.
72H: 2004/01/31 18 UTC: 18.7S/60.8E, MAX WIND=090KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0+.
UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS  ALLOWS TO EXPECT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION. WHAT IS
CONFIRMED WITH THE RECENT FORMATION OF A SMALL EYE WHICH IS ALREADY FORMED
IN MEDIUM LEVEL, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SSMI IMAGERY AT 1507 UTC.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALY SOUTHWARD, THEN IT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH.

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