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Date: Sat, 20 Mar 2004 19:27:19 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 210130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/210130Z-211800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/201952ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 201800Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 13.6S0 123.6E2, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM NORTHEAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
201800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4S7 103.1E5,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS INCREASING
OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ANALYZED ON QUIKSCAT. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2). NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 2.A.(1) AND ADDED PARA
2.B.(1) AS A FAIR AREA.
RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/WAUGAMAN/VOHS//

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