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Date: Thu, 11 Mar 2004 11:24:01 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Ocean/111800z-121800zmar2004//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 111800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111351ZMAR2004//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 110600Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO) WAS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 110900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 111200Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA)
WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 111500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3S6
102.6E9, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 101.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
EAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT QUIKSCAT
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
RELEASED BY: LT MOHAMMED, USN.
FORECAST TEAM:  MOHAMMED/DIXON/JACOBS/SPANSKI//

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