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Date: Sat, 21 Feb 2004 15:05:20 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 212021z Feb 04//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000,
SUBJECT_MONTH 0, SUBJECT_MONTH_2 0'

WTPS21 PGTW 212030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 212021Z FEB 04//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 16.1S8 173.1E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211730Z4 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S9 172.8E8. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8S4 172.0E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S9 172.8E8,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. EARLIER QUIKSCAT IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PUTS THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
222030Z9.//

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