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Date: Sat, 31 Jan 2004 11:35:26 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/311800ZJAN2004-011800ZFEB2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310752ZJAN2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311353ZJAN2004//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 310600Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S8 61.7E4 IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, DRIFTING NORTHWARD
AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
310900) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) AT 311200Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S1 96.1E6, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS.
SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW 311500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S (ELITA), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.6S9 49.1E4, ARE NOW LOCATED OVER LAND AT 20.7N9 44.9S7, APPROXIMATELY
40 NM OFF THE WESTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR, AND ARE ABOUT TO MOVE
OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S HAVE SURVIVED
AND DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE.
UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSES DEPICT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB.
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION, DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: CDR FIORINO, USNR.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/FIORINO/HEATH/TINOCO//

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