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Date: Fri, 05 Mar 2004 15:25:31 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 14.3S8 55.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 55.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 15.0S6 53.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.8S4 52.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.8S5 50.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.0S9 49.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 054.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISTINCT 15 NM DIAMETER EYE. TC 16S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. IMPROVED DUEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO AN INTENSIFICATION RATE THAT HAS BEEN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24 TC 16S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY DUE TO DECREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE MODERATE
DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF RECURVATURE OF THE SYSTEM
OVER MADAGASCAR, WITH NOGAPS AND NCEP GFS TURNING TC 16S
POLEWARD EARLIER THAN EGRR. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5
AND 062100Z9.//

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