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Date: Sat, 03 Jan 2004 14:03:01 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 24.7S3 58.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S3 58.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 28.0S0 59.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 31.7S1 61.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 37.0S0 63.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 25.5S2 59.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
EAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT LINKS UP WITH
THE TRANSITORY TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 06S WILL
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN,
AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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