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Date: Mon, 22 Mar 2004 10:41:54 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 220900 COR
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 013B CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- NEAR 14.0S5 120.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 120.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 14.3S8 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 14.7S2 119.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 15.5S1 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 16.4S1 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 18.5S4 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 120.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS.
TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE TRACK
POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND
230900Z4. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED MANOP FROM 221500 TO
220900.//

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