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Date: Mon, 26 Jan 2004 11:10:18 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZJAN2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261251ZJAN2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0
64.1E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 64.1E1, APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY INDICATES SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3S2
43.4E1, HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED NEAR 18.1S0 43.3E0, APPROXIMATELY
220 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR AND IS NOW THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REF A). LATEST
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AT 200 MB REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. SEE REF A
(WTXS21 PGTW) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: MAJOR GRUBER, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/TINOCO//

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