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Date: Wed, 17 Mar 2004 02:54:21 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- NEAR 12.1S4 127.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 127.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 12.4S7 126.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.5S8 125.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 12.5S8 124.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 12.5S8 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 126.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 170530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY
INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS
AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 AND 180900Z8.//

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