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Date: Sun, 01 Feb 2004 14:09:56 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Unclas //n03145//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 012100
UNCLAS //N03145//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 16.6S3 65.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 65.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 17.2S0 66.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 18.2S1 68.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.4S4 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 21.1S4 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 65.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 685 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
102 AND 115 KNOTS. A RECENT 011646Z8 SSMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS
THAT TC 10S HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL, SYMMETRICAL 10 NM DIAMETER
EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 10S
CONTINUES TO CYCLE WITH OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINING FAVORABLE TC
10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24 TO 36
HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THEN MORE POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 10S IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. TC 10S WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
AFTER 12 HOURS AS THE OUTFLOW BEGINS TO LESSEN. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAI, NCEP GFS, AND
UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z1 AND 022100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  09S (ELITA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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