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Date: Tue, 23 Mar 2004 14:40:10 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- NEAR 15.0S6 121.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 121.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 15.8S4 121.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 16.9S6 121.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 18.2S1 120.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 19.3S3 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 21.2S5 120.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 121.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRANSITIONED TO
A MORE POLEWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 75 AND 90 KNOTS. A 231230Z1 MICROWAVE IMAGERY DISTINCTLY SHOWS
DRY AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE GREAT SANDY DESERT ENTRAINING INTO THE
SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA FILLS AND
THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES. TC 18S
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING TC 18S
TO REINTENSIFY BRIEFLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, WBAI, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 AND 242100Z9.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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