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Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2004 06:49:52 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 271200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 6/6/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6  (ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/27 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7S / 43.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.5 /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 080   SE: 030   SO: 030   NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/01/28 00 UTC: 16.1S/43.4E, MAX WIND=035KT.
24H: 2004/01/28 12 UTC: 16.7S/43.1E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2004/01/29 00 UTC: 17.9S/43.3E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2004/01/29 12 UTC: 19.2S/43.8E, MAX WIND=045KT.
60H: 2004/01/30 00 UTC: 20.2S/44.2E, MAX WIND=050KT.
72H: 2004/01/30 12 UTC: 21.9S/44.8E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+ ET CI=2.5+
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BUILT OVER THE LLCC, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
IMPORTANT
BUT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CENTRE SEEMS TO HAVE GONE BACK
LIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT MEDIUM RANGE (WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH).=

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