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Date: Thu, 04 Mar 2004 11:09:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Ocean/041800z-051800zmar2004//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/040751Z MAR 04//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 040900Z3 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), WAS
LOCATED NEAR 12.2S5 59.4E8, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 040900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 15P (EVAN) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0S7 124.1E8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S3 120.8E1, APPROXIMATELY
180 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRAILIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS MOVED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST AND IS NOT WELL DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS MARGINABLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATD NEAR 8.5S3 88.6E2,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0S9 85.3E6 APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
RECENT 041600Z1 INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF BROAD TROUGHING AND
EVIDENT MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
THE REGION IS NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN MODERATE EASTERLIES CREATING
MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: LCDR ARENDS, USN.
FORECAST TEAM:  ARENDS/WINGEART/HEATH/SPANSKI//

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