

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Tue, 16 Mar 2004 05:37:09 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i2FLbJgq078772	for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 16 Mar 2004 05:37:20 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i2FKjbF1031114; Mon,
15 Mar 2004 15:30:59 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8e) with spool id 1546988 for
[email-masked]; Mon, 15 Mar 2004 15:30:59 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i2FLUwD1008182
for <[email-masked]>; Mon, 15 Mar 2004 15:30:58 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id i2FLUw9Z017126
for          <[email-masked]>; Mon,
15 Mar 2004 15:30:58 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          i2FLUvlE017124 for [email-masked]; Mon,
15 Mar 2004 15:30:57 -0600 (CST)
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 2004 15:30:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

ABIO10 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/152100Z-161800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/151951Z MAR 04//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/152022Z MAR 04//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0S7 87.0E5, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S0 85.5E8, APPROXIMATELY
700 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW
IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30
TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THIS ALERT WAS REISSUED AS A RESULT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
OUTSIDE OF ORIGINAL TCFA AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 152000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
131.2E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 130.3E7, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SUSTAINED CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THE SURFACE.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE REGION WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 152030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA FOR PARA 2.B.(1) AND
UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).
RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/DIXON/RONSSE/TINOCO//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.