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Date: Sun, 21 Mar 2004 00:26:03 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 210600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 210000Z3, TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N6 123.8E4, APPOXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7 146.1E2
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S0 151.7E4,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD VENTILATION AND WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR 18.8S7 166.0E3,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CHANGED COORDINATES IN PARA 2.B.(1)
TO SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE COORDINATES.
FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ/HEILER//

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