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Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 14:13:49 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 20.3S5 58.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 58.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 22.0S4 58.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 24.6S2 58.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 28.0S0 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 32.0S5 62.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 20.7S9 58.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT LINKS UP WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 06S WILL
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48 HOURS AND
ACCELERATE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, NCEP GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z2 AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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