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Date: Wed, 03 Mar 2004 15:12:59 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 12.3S6 60.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 60.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 11.6S8 57.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 11.4S6 55.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 11.6S8 54.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 12.3S6 53.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 59.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
MICROWAVE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 16S HAS
INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36 HOURS ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWEST AT 48 HRS AS A PERIPHERAL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
EGRR,GFDN AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.//

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