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Date: Mon, 05 Jan 2004 08:49:00 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (KEN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 20.7S9 114.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S9 114.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 21.8S1 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 22.2S6 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 22.6S0 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 21.0S3 114.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30, AND 35 KNOTS.
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN BY 36
HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9, 060900Z5 AND 061500Z2.//

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