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Date: Tue, 16 Mar 2004 02:30:00 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj:  Tropical Cyclone Warning
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152022Z MAR 04//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 11.9S1 129.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 129.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 12.4S7 127.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 12.8S1 126.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 12.8S1 125.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.6S9 123.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3  128.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A CONSOLIDATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NORTHEAST OF SUSTAINED
DEEP CONVECTION. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 12 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 152022Z
MAR 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS24 PGTW 152030 )
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND 170900Z7.//

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