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Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 12:34:31 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 021800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 19/4/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4  (DARIUS)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/02 AT 1800 UTC :
20.3S / 58.0E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 /D  0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 300   SO: 250   NO: 100
50 KT       NE: 020   SE: 050   SO: 050   NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/01/03 06 UTC: 22.5S/57.1E, MAX WIND=055KT.
24H: 2004/01/03 18 UTC: 24.3S/57.3E, MAX WIND=045KT.
36H: 2004/01/04 06 UTC: 27.3S/58.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2004/01/04 18 UTC: 31.5S/61.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2004/01/05 06 UTC: 40.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2004/01/05 18 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-.
IN SPITE OF A FLUCTUATING CONVECTION, A RAGGED EYE APPEARS ON THE IR
IMAGERY OVER THE LAST HOURS, AND ON THE RADAR PIC OF LA REUNION
ISLAND AS
WELL.
HOWEVER, DRIUS INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON
TRACKING POLEWARD, AND ENTERS AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR.
LOW LEVEL CENTER SHOULD TEMPORARILY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. RESIDUAL CIRCULATION SHOULD
EVACUATE WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.=

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