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Date: Mon, 08 Mar 2004 00:34:26 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Storm Warning For Metarea Vii
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO24 FMEE 080622
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/03/2004 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY    08/03/2004 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GAFILO)
POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 44.2E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 500 NM FROM THE CENTRE  IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND HIGH SEAS EXIST ALONG WESTERN MALAGASY
COASTS, BETWEEN 15S AND 18S.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXIST IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BETWEEN 12S AND 20S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2004/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
19.7S / 43.4E, MAX WIND = 40 KT.
24H, VALID 2004/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
21.6S / 43.5E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, DUE
TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT BETWEEN THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AND THE MONSOON
FLOW. THE MOST ACTIVE CLUSTERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THIS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN
THESE TWO FLOWS.
GAFILO LIKELY SHOULD  LAND OVER SEAS DURING NEXT HOUR, BETWEEN BESALAMPY
AND MORONDAVA. POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS GOOD.

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