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Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2004 15:12:24 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 13.2S6 126.0E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 126.0E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 13.5S9 125.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 14.0S5 124.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 14.6S1 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 15.2S8 122.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 125.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 181730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
AND 77 KNOTS. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, BUT
WILL BE HINDERED SLIGHTLY BY EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS,
TCLAPS AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AIDS WITH AN INCREASED
EMPHASIS ON TLAPS AND TCLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.//

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