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Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2004 11:26:04 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/121800z-131800zmar2004//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121351ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 121200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA)
WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 121500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2
101.6E8 APPROXIMATELY 280 NM HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 22.5S9 046.4E4,
APPROXIMATELY 200NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
LAST 12 HOURS. MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A DISTINCT
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING
OVER THE LOW LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH DRY AIR IS ENTRAINING FROM THE
WEST, ALL OTHER INDICATORS ARE POSITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
WATER DUE TO WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
RELEASED BY: LCDR ARENDS, USN.
FORECAST TEAM:  ARENDS/BRYANT/LAM/SPANSKI//

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