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Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2004 07:53:27 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 121500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- NEAR 19.8S8 85.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 85.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 21.0S3 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 22.7S1 84.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 24.4S0 83.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 26.0S8 83.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 85.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
800 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 77 KNOTS. EARLIER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY
TAU 48 AS INCREASED WESTERLY SHEAR KEEPS THE LLCC FROM RE-
COUPLING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 AND
131500Z0.//

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