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Date: Mon, 26 Jan 2004 15:33:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261251Z JAN 04//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 18.4S3 43.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 43.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 18.5S4 43.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 18.5S4 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 18.8S7 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.2S2 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 43.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY
215 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANAVARO, MADAGASCAR AND HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. A 261818Z6 SSM/I PASS
REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 09S IS CURRENTLY IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO; NOGAPS DOES NOT INITIALIZE ON THE SYSTEM VERY WELL.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7
IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
261251Z JAN 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 261300)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND 272100Z2.//

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