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Date: Wed, 24 Mar 2004 14:41:07 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- NEAR 16.6S3 121.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 121.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 17.5S3 121.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 18.3S2 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 19.1S1 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 20.2S4 120.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 121.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
241430Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A POSSIBLE BANDING EYE FEATURE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
SYSTEM INTENSITY BY COUNTERACTING THE DEGRADING CONTINENTAL DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THIS BALANCE OF OPPOSING FORCES WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY FOR 36 HOURS, THEN LANDFALL WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE
INTENSITY. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS,
TCLAPS, WBAI, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 AND 252100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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