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Date: Sun, 14 Mar 2004 23:18:05 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

ABIO10 PGTW 150530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/150530Z-151800ZMAR2004//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
91.9E9, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S4 90.1E0, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT QUIKSCAT SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150127Z6 TRMM PASS SHOWS THAT DEEP
CYCLING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF THE LLCC.
ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A
GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION ENHANCED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WILL BE ISSUED SOON IF THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
135.2E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S0 134.2E0, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTH OF MANINGRIDA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION
WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
RELEASED BY: MAJOR GRUBER, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/VOHS//

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