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Date: Mon, 02 Feb 2004 14:48:22 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 19.4S4 43.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 43.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 19.8S8 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 20.5S7 44.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 21.5S8 45.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 22.5S9 46.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 43.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS MODERATE EQUATORWARD
VENTILATION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 12 HOURS
AS IT REMAINS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM,
TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET EGRR,
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND 24 HOURS,
INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE STORM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z2 AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.

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