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Date: Wed, 07 Jan 2004 23:58:04 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN/080600Z-090600ZJAN2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/071951ZJAN2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 4.8N2 151.6E3
OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTH OF CHUUK.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO TURN CYCLONICALLY INWARD TOWARD A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEVELOPING ON THE END OF A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT OF DIFFLUENCE BALANCED BY MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 071800Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 28.8S8 160.6W3, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH OF RAROTONGA,
COOK ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/KELSEY//

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