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Date: Sat, 13 Mar 2004 09:01:14 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

ABIO10 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/131500Z-131800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131421ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131421ZMAR2004//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 131200Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA)
WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1S6 84.2E4, APPROXIMATELY 975 NM SOUTHWEST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 131500) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.7S1 47.3E4
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.6S1 49.2E5, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
OF RECENT CIMSS SATELLITE WINDS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. SEE
REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 131430) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 2.A.(1); DOWNGRADED
PARA 2.B.(1) FROM GOOD TO POOR.
RELEASED BY: MAJOR GRUBER, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/VOHS//

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