

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sat, 06 Mar 2004 16:35:21 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i268ZKOm027188	for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 06 Mar 2004 16:35:24 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i265pSJ1021804; Sat,
06 Mar 2004 02:29:51 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8e) with spool id 1404729 for
[email-masked]; Sat, 06 Mar 2004 02:29:46 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i268TjD1037728
for <[email-masked]>; Sat, 06 Mar 2004 02:29:45 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id i268Tj9Z024588
for          <[email-masked]>; Sat,
06 Mar 2004 02:29:45 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          i268Tj8w024587 for [email-masked]; Sat,
06 Mar 2004 02:29:45 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sat, 06 Mar 2004 02:29:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Unclas //n03145//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
NAVCENTMETOC DET DIEGO GARCIA//30//
PSBR BCST//SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 14.6S1 53.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 53.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.2S8 51.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.3S0 49.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.0S9 48.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 20.0S2 47.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 52.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
410 NM NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 060530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 140 KNOTS. A RECENT SSM/I IMAGE DEPICTS A DISTINCT 20 NM
EYE. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY
FOR TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
THEN BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. GFDN AND NCEP GFS DEPICT A WEAKER STEERING RIDGE
AND THEREFORE TURN TC 16S POLEWARD EARLIER. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE EGRR/NOGAPS SOLUTION DUE TO BETTER VERIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.