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Date: Mon, 08 Mar 2004 23:35:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Gale Warning For Metarea Vii
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO24 FMEE 090024
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 09/03/2004 AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY   09/03/2004 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GAFILO) 987 HPA
POSITION:           19.1S / 42.4E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP
TO 450 NM FROM THE CENTRE  IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND HIGH SEAS REACHING LOCALLY STORM FORCE
WINDS 50 KT, EXIST WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXIST WITHIN 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, BUT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS EXIST
IN THE
SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BETWEEN 25S AND 28S, REACHING GALE
FORCE WINDS 35/45
KT  AND VERY ROUGH SEAS, LOCALLY STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT,
BETWEEN THE SOUTH COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND 28S INTO THE GRADIENT
WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2004/03/09 AT 12 UTC:
20.2S / 42.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT.
24H, VALID 2004/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
21.5S / 42.7E, MAX WIND = 55 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0+.
STRONG WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT BETWEEN THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
AND THE MONSOON FLOW, AND ALSO FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR
, DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH. THE MOST
ACTIVE CLUSTER
S ARE ASSOCIATED TO THIS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FLOWS BETWENN 13S
EAND 17S.
GAFILO SHOULD TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING BEFORE LANDING IN
THE SOUTHWEST  OF MADAGASCAR.

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