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Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 03:05:28 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011451Z JAN 04//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 16.6S3 120.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 120.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.7S4 118.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 16.9S6 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 17.1S9 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 17.3S1 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 17.7S5 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 120.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
250 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 020530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST ALONG THE EQUATORWARD
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR),
WBAR AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8,
022100Z5, 030300Z6 AND 030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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