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Date: Fri, 23 Jan 2004 14:09:32 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Bms Marine Le 23/01/2004 A 1800 Utc.
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO21 FMEE 231800
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 23/01/2004 A 1800 UTC.
NUMERO: 4/5 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR
INDICATIVE).

AVERTISSEMENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 23/01/2004 A 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENE:         ZONE PERTURBEE 5 1003 HPA
POSITION:          DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.5S / 50.5E
(TREIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1800 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:       SUD-OUEST 6 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
UNE VASTE ZONE PERTURBEE S'ETEND ENTRE 3S ET 17S, ET DES COTES AFRICAINES  A
63E.
LA CONVECTION EST FLUCTUANTE, MAIS MODEREE A FORTE, AVEC DES AMAS CONVECTIFS
IMPORTANTS EN PARTICULIER SUR LE NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE (DES COMORES AU
NORD DE MADAGASCAR).

VASTE CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/20 KTS, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25 /30KT
DANS  LA PARTIE NORD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 24/01/2004 A 06 UTC:
14.7S / 50.3E, VENT MAX = 25 KT.
A 24H POUR LE 24/01/2004 A 18 UTC:
16.1S / 50.5E, VENT MAX = 30 KT.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LE CENTRE DE LA CIRCULATION RESTE TRES DIFFICILE A PRECISEMENT DETERMINER .
LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MOINS FAVORABLES. L'INTENSIFICATION
DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT ETRE LENTE. L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DU SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE
PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS.

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