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Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2004 15:01:37 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 272100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 19.3S3 118.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 118.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 19.5S5 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.9S9 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 20.4S6 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 21.2S5 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 118.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS. A RECENT PORT
HEDLAND RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT TC 14S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WITH A BANDING EYE BEGINNING
TO FORM. A RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT BEDOUT ISLAND REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 33 KNOTS AND A MSL OF 993.7 MB. ANIMATED
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTIONS. THIS WARNING HAS BEEN
AMENDED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
FORECASTED INTENSITIES. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
CAUSING TC 14S TO TURN MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS. ALL
OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW THAT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE WITH VARYING DEGREES OF OUTFLOW SUPPORTING CONTINUED
INTENSFICATION AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGGR, NCEP GFS AND TLAPS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 AND 282100Z3.//

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