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Date: Wed, 31 Dec 2003 20:36:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311851ZDEC2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 10.9S0 175.6W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 175.6W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 10.6S7 174.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 10.9S0 174.1W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 11.9S1 173.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 13.2S6 173.5W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.9S5 172.4W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.8S9 175.4W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 312330Z2 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
AND 35 KNOTS.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NO LONGER EXPOSED
AND THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD WITH THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES THROUGH 24 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 24, TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 15 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 311900).
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0, 011500Z7, 012100Z4 AND 020300Z5.//

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