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Date: Tue, 10 Feb 2004 20:15:18 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW:    A. Tropical Cyclone Summary: None.
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 110000
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.4N1 149.8E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.0N7 148.0E3, APPROXIMATELY
430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AGANA, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED NORTHEAST FROM A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6
146.6E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 143.1E9 OVER THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INLAND OF
PORT STEWART, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NOW OVER LAND. THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 110130)
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.1 AND
DOWNGRADED PARA 2.B.1 TO POOR.
4. RELEASED BY LCDR ARENDS, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: ARENDS/LEEJOICE/KELSEY//

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