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Date: Sun, 14 Mar 2004 14:43:37 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/142100Z-150600ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/142052ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY/
FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0N5
141.9E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N6 142.4E1, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
REFLECT AN ELONGATED TROUGH NEAR THE SURFACE THAT IS CONSOLIDATING
AND CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE. POSITIONING OF THE CENTER REMAINS
DIFFICULT AND THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BE CYCLIC BUT EXTENSIVE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE REGION, INDICATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. ANTICIPATE A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS AS FURTHER MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY PERMITS MORE ACCURATE POSITIONING OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2 135.2E0,
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM FROM MANINGRIDA, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. LOCATING ANY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS DIFFICULT AND MULTIPLE LLCCS MAY
BE PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE 135 DEGREE LONGITUDE LINE, THIS AREA
WILL ALSO BE LISTED ON THE ABIO BEGINNING ON THE NEXT REISSUE
OF THAT BULLETIN. (SEE REF A). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN 2.B.(1) AND
UPDATED ALL OTHER INFORMATION.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/NOREN/ANDERSON/FUNK//

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