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Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2004 07:34:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270121ZJAN2004//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 11.4S6 64.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 64.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 11.7S9 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 12.2S5 64.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 12.7S0 64.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 13.0S4 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 64.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
520 NM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS.
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO MODERATE OUTFLOW
AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 08 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
270121Z JAN 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22
PGTW 270130) NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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