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Date: Mon, 01 Mar 2004 20:47:18 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (EVAN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 14.1S6 134.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 134.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 14.2S7 132.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 14.4S9 130.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 14.6S1 127.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 15.0S6 124.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.2S9 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 134.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
012330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 15P HAS DIMINSHED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER LAND. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION.
TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 15P MAY MODERATELY INCREASE INTENSITY AS IT
TRACKS BACK OVER WATER AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET
EGRR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT TC 15P MAY DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1, 021500Z8, 022100Z5 AND 030300Z6.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).

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