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Date: Sun, 14 Mar 2004 19:26:05 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 150200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/150030Z-151800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150151ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR/
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 91.9E9,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE EAST OF CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
135.2E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S0 134.2E0, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTH OF MANINGRIDA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION
WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO
FAIR.
RELEASED BY: LT BRYANT, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/NOREN/ANDERSON/FUNK//

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