

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sun, 07 Mar 2004 05:05:18 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i26L5LqW063879	for
<[email-masked]>; Sun, 07 Mar 2004 05:05:22 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i26GSoK3042636; Sat,
06 Mar 2004 15:00:32 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8e) with spool id 1410458 for
[email-masked]; Sat, 06 Mar 2004 15:00:32 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id i26L0VD1091060
for <[email-masked]>; Sat, 06 Mar 2004 15:00:31 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.6/8.12.6) with ESMTP id i26L0V9Z001853
for          <[email-masked]>; Sat,
06 Mar 2004 15:00:31 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.6/8.12.6/Submit)
id          i26L0Vi5001852 for [email-masked]; Sat,
06 Mar 2004 15:00:31 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sat, 06 Mar 2004 15:00:31 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 15.0S6 51.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 51.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.7S3 49.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.1S9 48.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.8S7 46.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 20.6S8 46.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 051.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140. A RECENT SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS A DISTINCT
20 NM EYE AND SLIGHT ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES LAND.
TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY FOR TC 16S IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO DECREASED VENTILATION AND INTERACTION WITH
LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN,
AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND
072100Z0.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.