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Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2004 14:58:54 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 302100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 15.5S1 61.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 61.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 15.3S9 61.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 15.7S3 60.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.8S5 61.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 18.0S9 61.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 61.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 301730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102
AND 115 KNOTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TRANSITIONING TC 10S TO A NEW STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND SENDING TC 10S ON A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. TC 10S IS
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THEN RECURVE
EASTWARD UNDER THIS SCENARIO. TC 10S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS MOST OF THE MODELS DEPICT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, WBAR AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 AND 312100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S
(LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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