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Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2004 02:10:24 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 27.9S8 59.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S8 59.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 33.1S7 62.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 40.6S0 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 29.2S3 60.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30, 35, AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
TC 06S WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 24
HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET
(EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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