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Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2004 02:46:05 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTPS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 11.4S6 174.6W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 174.6W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 12.6S9 174.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 14.2S7 173.4W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.2S9 172.0W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.2S1 170.0W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 23.2S7 164.1W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 174.5W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. A 040508Z7 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS
A VERY LARGE SYSTEM. TC 07P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND ACCELERATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0,
042100Z7, 050300Z8 AND 050900Z4.//

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