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Date: Mon, 05 Jan 2004 02:38:25 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTPS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 14.5S0 173.6W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 173.6W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.4S1 172.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.6S5 170.8W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.5S8 168.5W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 24.1S7 165.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 29.7S8 160.2W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 173.3W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 140 KNOTS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALONG A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITIONS INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z1, 052100Z8, 060300Z9 AND 060900Z5.//

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