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Date: Wed, 04 Feb 2004 00:56:37 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N:  Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 040600

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 31/7/20032004
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7  (FRANK)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/04 AT 0600 UTC :
18.5S / 70.4E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.0/5.5 /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 400   SE: 400   SO: 350   NO: 400
50 KT       NE: 080   SE: 030   SO: 030   NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/04 18 UTC: 19.2S/70.2E, MAX WIND=080KT.
24H: 2004/02/05 06 UTC: 20.3S/70.8E, MAX WIND=075KT.
36H: 2004/02/05 18 UTC: 21.9S/71.9E, MAX WIND=070KT.
48H: 2004/02/06 06 UTC: 23.6S/73.0E, MAX WIND=065KT.
60H: 2004/02/06 18 UTC: 25.3S/74.4E, MAX WIND=060KT.
72H: 2004/02/07 06 UTC: 26.7S/76.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- AND CI=5.5-.
AFTER ITS INTENSIFICATION OF LAST NIGHT, FRANK SHOWS SOME WEAK SIGNS OF
LIGHT WEAKENING (CONVECYION IS WARMER AND THE 30NM DIAMETRE EYE IS LESS
EMBEDDED) WHICH SHOULD BE CONFIRMED DURING THIS DAY.
MODELS AGREE FRANK TRACKING POLEWARDS. AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, FRANK
WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER COOLER SEAS.

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