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Date: Wed, 24 Mar 2004 02:43:28 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 15.8S4 121.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 121.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 16.9S6 121.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 18.0S9 121.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 19.0S0 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 19.9S9 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.1S8 121.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A POSSIBLE BANDING EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH HAS HELPED THE SYSTEM MAINTAIN INTENSITY TO
COUNTERBALANCE THE CONTINENTAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING TC 18S TO
REINTENSIFY BRIEFLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, WBAI, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND 250900Z6.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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