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Date: Thu, 05 Feb 2004 12:05:54 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 051800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 37/7/20032004
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7  (FRANK)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/05 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 71.1E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/4.5 /W  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 400   SE: 300   SO: 250   NO: 350
50 KT       NE: 080   SE: 060   SO: 060   NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/06 06 UTC: 21.9S/71.4E, MAX WIND=060KT.
24H: 2004/02/06 18 UTC: 23.1S/72.3E, MAX WIND=055KT.
36H: 2004/02/07 06 UTC: 24.5S/73.4E, MAX WIND=050KT.
48H: 2004/02/07 18 UTC: 26.0S/74.6E, MAX WIND=050KT.
60H: 2004/02/08 06 UTC: 27.3S/75.7E, MAX WIND=040KT.
72H: 2004/02/08 18 UTC: 28.7S/76.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE HIGH LEVEL (200HPA) HIGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM GENERATES A
STRONG EASTSOUTHEASTERLY SHEARING RESPONSIBLE OF THE RAPID WEAKENING
OF
FRNK (WARMER AND DIZORGANISED DEEP CONVECTION, LOCATED MAINLY
NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTRE).
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
TROUGH.=

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