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Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 06:24:09 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 021200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 18/4/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4  (DARIUS)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/02 AT 1200 UTC :
19.8S / 58.2E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/3.5 /D  0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 300   SO: 250   NO: 100
50 KT       NE: 020   SE: 050   SO: 050   NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/01/03 00 UTC: 21.0S/58.2E, MAX WIND=050KT.
24H: 2004/01/03 12 UTC: 22.6S/57.8E, MAX WIND=045KT.
36H: 2004/01/04 00 UTC: 24.0S/57.0E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2004/01/04 12 UTC: 26.2S/57.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2004/01/05 00 UTC: 28.8S/58.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2004/01/05 12 UTC: 31.2S/60.3E EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OF DARIUS ALWAYS FLUCTUATING HAS SHOWED
TEMPORARY TO BE MORE ORGANIZED,  WITH A RAGGED EYE VIVIBLE ONLY ON
THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY, BUT WITHIN A  CONVECTION NOT VERY DEEP.
THE INTENSITY OF DARIUS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE VERTICAL
WIND
SHEAR WHICH SHOULD  INCREASED AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWARD.
ONCE
SHEARED, THE CENTRE SHOULD UNDERGOES THE THE LOW LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE END OF PERIOD, DARIUS IS EXPECTED TO
EVACUATE WITH T
HE NEXT TROUGH.=

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