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Date: Sat, 03 Jan 2004 03:02:17 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 16.4S1 117.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 117.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 16.7S4 116.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 17.1S9 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.5S3 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 17.9S7 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.5S4 110.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 116.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
030530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR),
AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9, 032100Z6, 040300Z7 AND 040900Z3.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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