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Date: Wed, 17 Mar 2004 15:01:21 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 172100 RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 12.4S7 126.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 126.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 12.6S9 125.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 12.6S9 125.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 12.6S9 124.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 12.6S9 123.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.5S8 126.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 171730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. WESTERLY WINDS
TO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF TC 18S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTIBUTE TO
SLOW WESTWARD PROPGATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
BEYOND TAU 24 IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS AND EGRR
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD OF
THE DYNAMIC AIDS, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.//

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