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Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2004 00:27:11 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
__UPPERCASE_50_75 0, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0,
__TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 180633
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 1/11/20032004
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11

2.A POSITION 2004/03/18 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2S / 75.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/18 18 UTC: 15.9S/72.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2004/03/19 06 UTC: 15.5S/70.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
THE MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS RATHER HIGH, AND STRONG WINDS EXIST
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH
THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INTENSIFIED (WITH A 2 DEGRES DIAMETRE
CLUSTER) DURING LAST HOURS ABOVE THE LOW WHICH IS STILL BADLY
DEFINED.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTNORTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT A WEAK STAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=

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