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Date: Sun, 25 Jan 2004 03:51:44 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/251000Z-251800ZJAN2004//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6S1 51.1E7
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7 51.7E3, APPROXIMATELY 75NM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS DIFFUSE CONVECTION WITH NO DISCERNABLE CENTRAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE OUTFLOW AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S4 60.3E9 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0 AND 62.2E0, APPROXIMATELY 700NM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 200 MB
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 16.3S0 43.5E2,
APPROXIMATELY 50NM OFF THE WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTANT CONVECTION OVER
A MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(3) AND UPDATED
ALL OTHER AREAS.
4. RELEASED BY: LT MOHAMMED, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/DIXON/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//

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