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Date: Fri, 26 Mar 2004 02:22:10 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- NEAR 18.5S4 119.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 119.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 18.9S8 119.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 19.4S4 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 20.0S2 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 20.5S7 119.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 119.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
130 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 260530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND 260600Z4 BROOME RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115
KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK 10 NM
DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 18S
INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 AND
270900Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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