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Date: Tue, 16 Mar 2004 11:17:44 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/161800Z-171800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/160751ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/161621ZMAR2004//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 160600Z3 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S0
85.5E8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2 83.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 845 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT ONLY A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WITH NO INDICATION
OF CURVATURE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES. REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION
IS WEAK AND CYCLIC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ORGANIZATION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 161630)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/DIXON/LAM/ANDERSON/FUNK//

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