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Date: Mon, 08 Mar 2004 08:06:25 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080251Z MAR 04//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 13.0S4 90.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 90.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 12.9S2 90.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 13.3S7 90.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 14.4S9 89.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.9S5 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 90.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS AND HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTH
EASTWARD AT 3 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATING POSSIBLE 35 KNOT WINDS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EQUATORWARD
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,(WTXS21 PGTW 080300). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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