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Date: Wed, 24 Mar 2004 02:56:42 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

WTXS33 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 8.6S4 56.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 56.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 8.8S6 55.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 9.1S0 55.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 9.6S5 55.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 10.1S2 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 8.6S4 56.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 835 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
AND HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 KNOTS AND QUIKSCAT WINDS DEPICTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS NORTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT THE LLCC IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, THUS THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR
TO HAVE INTENSIFIED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 21S SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS. THEREAFTER, IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS, AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST PROVIDES THE
DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 21S IS LOCATED
UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLIES FROM A RIDGE TO THE WEST, WHICH IS
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. SINCE 21S IS SO DISORGANIZED AT THIS POINT, AND
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER IMPROVING OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR, AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND 250900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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