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Date: Sat, 31 Jan 2004 15:47:06 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 312100 REGENERATED
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z3 --- NEAR 20.6S8 44.4E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 44.4E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 20.0S2 42.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 19.6S6 42.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.2S2 42.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 18.8S7 42.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 44.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR , HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
311730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 09S
IS JUST INLAND OF THE WESTERN MADAGASCAR SHORELINE AND IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
DIRECTIONS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND THEN
BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A DIFFERENT STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
OR HIGHER AS THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT GOOD OUTFLOW FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS,
AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0
AND 012100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) AND 11S (LINDA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32/WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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