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Date: Tue, 23 Mar 2004 09:14:40 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230521ZMAR2004//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z8 --- NEAR 14.7S2 98.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 98.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 14.6S1 97.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 14.6S1 96.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 14.8S3 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 15.2S8 94.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 98.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 231130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231108Z5
QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND QUIKSCAT WINDS DEPICTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTER. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING FEATURE
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO CYCLE DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTED A VERY WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, WHILE OVERALL THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP
GFS, WBAR, AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS IS AN
EQUATORWARD OUTLIER, WHICH JTWC ATTRIBUTES TO INTERACTION WITH TC 18S EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS MINUS NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z8 IS
10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 230521Z
MAR2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 230530)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 AND 241500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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