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Date: Wed, 11 Feb 2004 20:38:01 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: 1.tropical Cyclone 12p (fritz) Warning Nr 001
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTPS31 PGTW 120000
RMKS/
1.TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FRITZ) WARNING NR 001
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 16.7S4 140.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 140.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 17.2S0 138.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 17.5S3 136.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 139.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FRITZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
EAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, HAS
MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY
FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A GOOD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SYNOPTIC WIND REPORTS
ARE LOWER THAN THE SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND SHEAR IS MINIMAL. TC 12P
HAS TIME AND THE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP FURTHER BEFORE LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 121500Z9.//

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