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Date: Fri, 26 Mar 2004 21:53:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 270330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/270330Z-271800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261952ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZMAR2004//
NARR/REFS A and B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 261800Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.3S3 120.3E6, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHEAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, MOVING SOUTH AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 115 GUSTING TO 140 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 262100 AMD)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 270000Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.2S1 91.4E4, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE
REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 270300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3
53.5E3 IS NOW LOCATED AT 10.3E4 52.7E4, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. A RECENT 262143Z8 AMSR-E
PASS REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR.
(2)AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 65.1E2,
APPROXIMATELY 565 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS PERSISTED FOR
THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER IMAGERY REVEALS
SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER AN EXISTING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY DEPICTS
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARAS 2.A.(1), 2.A.(2), 2.B.(1)
AND ADDED PARA 2.B.(2).
RELEASED BY: MAJ GRUBER, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/PITTS/HEATH/TINOCO//

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