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Date: Mon, 05 Jan 2004 02:34:21 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (KEN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 19.8S8 114.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 114.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.8S0 114.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.5S8 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.9S2 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.1S5 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 114.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30, 35, AND 45 KNOTS.
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN BY 48 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSIST OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1, 052100Z8, 060300Z9 AND 060900Z5.//

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