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Date: Thu, 11 Mar 2004 14:32:11 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 24.5S1 46.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S1 46.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 25.1S8 47.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 25.4S1 48.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 24.7S3 046.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 16S HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED
INTO A REGION OF ELONGATED TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN TC 16S EMERGES OVER WATER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFWA MM5.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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