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Date: Sat, 03 Jan 2004 14:39:08 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 17.1S9 116.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 116.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 17.7S5 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 18.4S3 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 19.2S2 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.0S2 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.5S8 112.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 116.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
TC 08S CONTINUES TO REMAIN WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN TRANSITION TO A
MORE POLEWARD TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEAKENS THE RIDGE. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN,
AND UKMET (EGRR). THE GFDN SOLUTION IS A SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS RECURVING
TC 08S TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED
UNLIKELY BASED ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS
EMPHASIS ON GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7, 040900Z3,
041500Z0 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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