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Date: Wed, 03 Mar 2004 11:40:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/031800z-041800zmar2004//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

ABIO10 PGTW 031800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/031351Z MAR 04//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 031200Z6 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), WAS
LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 62.1E9, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 031500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 15P (EVAN) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.8S2 129.7E9, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S9 125.4E2, APPROXIMATELY
350 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRAILIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS TRACKED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERRITORY AND IS NEAR THE COAST,
SHOWING A MODERATE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: LCDR ARENDS, USN.
FORECAST TEAM:  ARENDS/WINGEART/HEATH/SPANSKI//

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