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Date: Thu, 01 Jan 2004 14:09:00 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 18.1S0 58.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 58.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.6S6 58.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 21.2S5 57.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 22.9S3 57.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 25.2S9 57.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 58.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
140 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A LESS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, NCEP GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011800Z0 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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