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Date: Tue, 09 Mar 2004 19:52:24 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 14.6S1 90.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 90.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 15.7S3 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 17.1S9 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.6S5 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 20.2S4 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 90.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
405 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, EGRR, AFWA, GFDN,
AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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