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Date: Thu, 11 Mar 2004 02:59:05 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 23.9S4 46.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S4 46.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 24.3S9 47.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 24.8S4 48.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 25.2S9 50.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 24.0S6 46.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 110530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC
16S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST. WHEN TC 16S EMERGES OVER WATER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5,
WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE INITIALLY AND THEN ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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