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Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2004 21:29:50 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (KEN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 18.8S7 115.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 115.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 19.5S5 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 20.2S4 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 20.8S0 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 21.1S4 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.0S3 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 115.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 35 AND 45
KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN
WEAKEN TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSIST OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4, 051500Z1, 052100Z8 AND 060300Z9.//

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