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Date: Wed, 03 Mar 2004 02:05:48 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 13.4S8 63.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 63.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 13.6S0 61.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 13.8S2 58.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 13.9S3 55.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 14.1S6 52.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 14.4S9 49.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 63.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), HAS BEEN RELOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS AND HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ON NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9, 032100Z6, 040300Z7 AND 040900Z3.//

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