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Date: Wed, 31 Dec 2003 15:18:31 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z3 --- NEAR 16.0S7 59.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 59.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.9S6 58.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 17.9S7 58.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 19.5S5 58.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 21.1S4 57.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 58.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FORMATION OF A BANDING EYE
FEATURE. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH
36 HOURS WITH INTENSIFICATION PEAKING BY 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, WBAR, AND THE
UKMET (EGRR) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
311800Z3 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4.//

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