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Date: Mon, 15 Mar 2004 01:00:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

ABIO10 PGTW 150700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/150700Z-151800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/150630Z MAR 04//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
91.9E9, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S4 90.1E0, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT QUIKSCAT SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150320Z1 SSMI PASS SHOWS THAT DEEP
CYCLING CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE LLCC. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER
LEVELS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN
THE POLEWARD DIRECTION ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO
35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 150630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
135.2E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S0 134.2E0, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTH OF MANINGRIDA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION
WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO GOOD.
RELEASED BY: MAJOR GRUBER, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/VOHS//

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