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Date: Wed, 04 Feb 2004 07:12:03 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 041200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 38/6/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6  (ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/04 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0S / 49.2E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT   NE:       SE: 500   SO: 400   NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/05 00 UTC: 25.6S/50.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2004/02/05 12 UTC: 27.5S/50.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL (WITH DIZORGANISED DEEP
CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE SOPUTHERN PART) WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVING EASTWARD.
CENTRE IS EXPOSED BUT VERY BADLY DEFINED. IT HAS BEEN RELOCATED
ACCORDING
TO SATELLITE ANIMATION (SEVERAL WEAK LOWS HAS BEEN DETECTED DURING
LAST
HOURS).=

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