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Date: Fri, 06 Feb 2004 15:17:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Unclas //n03145//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 062100
UNCLAS //N03145//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 23.8S3 75.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 75.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 25.8S5 78.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 26.9S7 78.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 27.7S6 79.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 24.3S9 076.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1040
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION
OVER TC 10S HAS DISSIPATED DUE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 10S HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARDS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 24 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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