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Date: Sat, 13 Mar 2004 09:00:21 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELM) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 23.1S6 84.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 84.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 24.2S8 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.4S9 84.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
975 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 131130Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT IS FULLY EXPOSED. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S HAS BEEN
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH BY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE IN A CONTINUED
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR,
EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

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