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Date: Mon, 02 Feb 2004 07:10:25 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 021200

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 30/6/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6  (ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/02 AT 1200 UTC :
19.2S / 42.7E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 /D  0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 500   SE: 150   SO: 500   NO: 500
50 KT       NE:       SE: 060   SO: 060   NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A
VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/03 00 UTC: 19.4S/43.3E, MAX WIND=060KT.
24H: 2004/02/03 12 UTC: 20.0S/44.0E, MAX WIND=065KT.
36H: 2004/02/04 00 UTC: 20.8S/44.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2004/02/04 12 UTC: 21.5S/45.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2004/02/05 00 UTC: 22.3S/46.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2004/02/05 12 UTC: 23.2S/47.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
ELITA EVOLVES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS INTENSIFICATION. NWP
PRODUCTS, ECMWF, UKMO AND ARP ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

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