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Date: Tue, 02 Mar 2004 14:48:01 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020821ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 13.9S3 68.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 68.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 14.3S8 67.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 14.7S2 65.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 15.1S7 63.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.4S0 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 068.3E7.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.8E2 69.9E4, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9E3 68.7E1,
APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. TC 16S IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY
OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 020821Z MAR 04 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 020830). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6.//

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