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Date: Wed, 11 Feb 2004 07:23:44 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW:    A. Tropical Cyclone Summary: None.
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 111300
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.6N3 145.7E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N2 144.4E3, APPROXIMATELY
200 NM SOUTH OF AGANA, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CO-LOCATED WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 142.9E6
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7 141.0E6, IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, APPROXIMATELY
90 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP CONVECTION WITH A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 1.B.1 TO FAIR AND UPDATED PARA 2.B.1.
4. RELEASED BY LT MOHAMMED, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/ANDERSON//

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