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Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2004 17:27:39 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS21 PGTW 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 302151Z JAN 04//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.5S8 50.5E0 TO 21.1S4 46.2E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
301730Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.6S9
49.1E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S (ELITA), LAST WARNED ON 290000Z1,
ARE LOCATED NEAR 21.6S9 49.1E4, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM OFF THE EASTERN
COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR, AND HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO
IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON LAND BEFORE IT REACHES TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
312200Z8.//

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