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Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2004 00:35:40 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO30 FMEE 270600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/6/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6  (ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/27 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 43.4E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 100   SE: 060   SO: 060   NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/01/27 18 UTC: 17.5S/43.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.
24H: 2004/01/28 06 UTC: 17.4S/43.0E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2004/01/28 18 UTC: 18.1S/42.8E, MAX WIND=045KT.
48H: 2004/01/29 06 UTC: 19.2S/43.1E, MAX WIND=050KT.
60H: 2004/01/29 18 UTC: 20.5S/43.8E, MAX WIND=050KT.
72H: 2004/01/30 06 UTC: 21.8S/44.6E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BUILT OVER THE LLCC, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
IMPORTANT
BUT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CENTRE SEEMS TO HAVE GONE BACK
LIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT MEDIUM RANGE (WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH).=

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