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Date: Wed, 10 Mar 2004 08:27:29 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 15.3S9 90.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 90.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.9S6 89.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 18.1S0 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 19.2S2 86.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.3S5 84.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 90.1E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 17S IS
FORECASTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THEN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LINEAR OR EVEN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, TLAPS, TCLAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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