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Date: Sun, 07 Mar 2004 14:53:19 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 16.2S9 46.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 46.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.5S3 45.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.0S0 44.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.7S9 44.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.3S7 45.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 046.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
170 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING OF TC 16S AS IT CONTINUES
TO INTERACT WITH LAND. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF TC 16S. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
INTENSITY OF TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071800Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND
082100Z1.//

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