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Date: Thu, 25 Mar 2004 12:34:19 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 251800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/251800Z/261800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240752ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZMAR2004//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 250600Z3 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.4S2 121.5E9, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTHEAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 75 GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 250900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 251200Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S8 92.8E9, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 70 GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5 56.1E2, APPROX-
IMATELY 800 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS
SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CO-LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE WILL BECOME
MORE DOMINANT AS THE AREA OF VERTICAL SHEAR MOVES POLEWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INCORRECT FORMATTING IN REFERENCES
SECTION.
RELEASED BY: LCDR ARENDS, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: ARENDS/KENDALL/NOREN/VOHS//

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