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Date: Fri, 26 Mar 2004 11:53:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/261800z-271800zmar2004//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

ABIO10 PGTW 261800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260752ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZMAR2004//
NARR/REFS A and B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 260600Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4 119.9E0, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTHEAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 90 GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 260900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 261200Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S3 92.1E2, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 105 GUSTING TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 261500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5 56.1E2
IS NOW LOCATED AT 9.4S3 53.5E3, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS SPORADIC
DEEP CONVECTION CO-LOCATED AROUND A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDCATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
RELEASED BY: LCDR ARENDS, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: ARENDS/GRUBER/PITTS/NOREN/VOHS//

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