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Date: Wed, 24 Mar 2004 08:21:35 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, __UPPERCASE_75_100 0,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000, __HAS_MSGID 0, __SANE_MSGID 0, __TO_MALFORMED_2 0'

WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- NEAR 14.6S1 95.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 95.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 15.0S6 93.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 15.5S1 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 15.9S5 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 16.5S2 91.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 94.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
241210Z0 MICROWAVE PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. THE 241210Z0 MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A BANDING EYE BEGINNING TO FORM, WHILE ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. TC 20S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THEREAFTER, A TRANSIENT MID-LAT TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE,
ALLOWING TC 20S TO DIP A LITTLE POLEWARD. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS AS
IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS IT REACHES IT'S MAX INTENSITY. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR, GFDN AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 AND 251500Z3. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  21S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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