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Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2004 03:06:28 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZFEB2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 19.4S4 119.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 119.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 19.6S6 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 19.8S8 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 19.9S9 116.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 20.2S4 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 119.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEADLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
AND 30 KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC HAS INCREASED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A FAVORBABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ENHANCED OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 08 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
270151ZFEB2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
270200) NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 AND 280900Z9.//

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