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Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2004 03:03:23 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 18.0S9 115.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 115.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 19.1S1 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 20.2S4 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 21.2S5 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.4S7 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 21.4S7 111.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 115.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
AND 35 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
36 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z0, 042100Z7, 050300Z8, AND 050900Z4. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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