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Date: Fri, 23 Jan 2004 14:10:31 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Warning For Metarea Vii And Metarea Viii (s)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTIO22 FMEE 231800
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/01/2004 AT 1800
UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 4/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY    23/01/2004 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5 1003 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 50.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS BETWEEN 3S AND 17S, FROM AFRICAN
COASTS TO 63E.
CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, BUT IS MODERATE TO VERY ACTIVE, WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
(FROM COMORO ISLANDS TO THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR).

BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KTS, REACHING LOCALLY 25/30
KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN PART. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2004/01/24 AT 06 UTC:
14.7S / 50.3E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.
24H, VALID 2004/01/24 AT 18 UTC:
16.1S / 50.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY
LOCATE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUITE SLOW. PRESENT SYSTEM INTENSITY
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

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