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Date: Sun, 14 Mar 2004 14:37:39 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

ABIO10 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/142100Z-151800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/142051ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR/
THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 91.9E9,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE EAST OF CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2 135.2E1,
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM FROM MANINGRIDA, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. LOCATING ANY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS DIFFICULT AND MULTIPLE LLCCS MAY
BE PRESENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE 135 DEGREE LONGITUDE LINE, THIS AREA
WILL IS BEING LISTED ON THE ABPW ALSO (SEE REF A). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).
RELEASED BY: LT BRYANT, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/NOREN/ANDERSON/FUNK//

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