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Date: Wed, 10 Mar 2004 14:34:55 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 23.4S9 45.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S9 45.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 24.0S6 46.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 24.5S1 47.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 25.0S7 47.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 25.8S5 49.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 46.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. TC 16S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. AS TC 16S EMERGES OVER WATER,
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5,
WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE INITIALLY AND THEN ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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