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Date: Mon, 05 Jan 2004 14:53:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIII, Probability=17%, Report='UPPERCASE_50_75 1.152,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001,
TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTXS32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (KEN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 21.1S4 114.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 114.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.8S1 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 22.7S1 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 23.7S2 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6  114.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (KEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN BY 36
HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5, 061500Z2 AND 062100Z9.//

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