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Date: Sat, 28 Feb 2004 02:59:11 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XIIIIIIIII, Probability=19%,
Report='UPPERCASE_75_100 1.489, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
LINES_OF_YELLING 0.001, LINES_OF_YELLING_2 0.001, TO_BE_REMOVED_REPLY 0.000'

WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 28.6S6 173.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6S6 173.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 33.9S5 175.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 39.9S1 179.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 45.5S4 175.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 29.9S0 173.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77, 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z3 AND 290900Z0.//

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