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Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 06:10:18 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 251209

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 2/15/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 15

2.A POSITION 2005/02/25 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9S / 83.7E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/26 00 UTC: 11.4S/83.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/26 12 UTC: 12.3S/83.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/27 00 UTC: 13.3S/83.2E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/02/27 12 UTC: 14.2S/83.2E, MAX WIND=040KT.
60H: 2005/02/28 00 UTC: 15.0S/83.1E, MAX WIND=045KT.
72H: 2005/02/28 12 UTC: 15.7S/83.0E, MAX WIND=045KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
CONVECTION IS HARDLY ORGANIZING, BUT THE LLCC IS BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN
YESTERDAY.
WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, BUT THE LOW
LEVEL
IN FLOW IS RATHER POOR (MODERATE MOOSON FLOW, BUT WEAK TRADE WIND
FLOW)

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OR REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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