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Date: Mon, 07 Feb 2005 01:36:29 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 24.2S8 156.5W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S8 156.5W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 27.2S1 152.7W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 30.1S4 147.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 33.3S9 142.2W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 37.5S5 135.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 25.0S7 155.5W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 102 KNOTS. RECENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A DECREASE IN OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO MERGE WITH THE BARO-
CLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. EXPECT
TRANSITION TO BE COMPLETE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 AND 080900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  16P (HARVEY)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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