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Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 08:30:19 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B11  Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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WTPS12 NFFN 141200
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B11  issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/1425 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [935HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 176.9W AT
141200 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE
SOUTHEAST. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100
KNOTS INCREASING TO 115 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33
KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OLAF, IN TANDEM WITH NANCY, HAS UNDERGONE RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS, AND HAS ALSO COMMENCED AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE EYE HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED IN RECENT EIR IMAGES,
WITH A LG SHADE SURROUNDED BY CMG. DVORAK ASSESSMENT YIELDS DT=6.5,
MET=PAT=6.0. FT BASED ON MET: T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A
REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS
POSSIBLY CLOSE TO PEAK INTENSITY. WEAK EASTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS PRESENT, BUT MAY DECREASE AS OLAF MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AS NORTHWEST
STEERING DOMINATES. SOME MODELS FORECAST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
TWO CYCLONES WITH OLAF WEAKENING AND MERGING WITH NANCY IN 3-4 DAYS.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 10.6S 175.8W MOV SE 10KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 12.3S 174.3W MOV SE 12KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 14.1S 172.3W MOV SE 14KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 16.0S 170.0W MOV SE 15KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
142030 UTC.

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