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Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 14:51:30 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131021ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 9.6S5 177.4W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S5 177.4W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 10.2S3 176.7W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 11.0S2 175.3W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 12.2S5 173.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 14.1S6 171.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 19.1S1 166.2W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 9.7S6 177.2W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 131730Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND
55 KNOTS. TC 19P IS TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING
THAT IS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND 140900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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