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Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 14:05:40 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A24 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__C230066_P2 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 161800
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A24 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 16/2003 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [985hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 161.8W
AT 161800 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CURVE WEST. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT
50 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE 33
KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION DECREASED RAPIDLY IN PAST 6 HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED SE OF EXPOSED LLCC. WELL DEFINED LLCC FULLY EXPOSED 1.5
DEGREE FROM DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ASSESSMENT YIELDS DT=3.0, MET=3.0
AND PT=3.0. FT BASED ON DT AND MET, CI KEPT AT 3.5:
T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT DECREASING
ELSEWHERE. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHWEST
THEN WEST BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING WITH NANCY'S REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED INTO
CIRCULATION AROUND TC OLAF WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 25.0S 163.0W MOV SW 12KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 25.3S 164.7W MOV WSW 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
NANCY WEAKENING BELOW TC INTENSITY BY 36 HOURS AS RESIDUAL LLCC
MERGES WITH TC OLAF.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 162000 UTC.

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