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Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 12:09:44 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 051751z Feb 05//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTXS21 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051751Z FEB 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
185 NM RADIUS OF 15.5S1 116.9E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051130Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 116.9E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S8
116.5E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 116.9E7, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION,
AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 051014Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS
A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED WINDS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRA-
DED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061800Z5.//

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