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Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 07:25:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (PERCY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- NEAR 8.9S7 176.4W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S7 176.4W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 9.5S4 174.4W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 10.2S3 172.8W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 10.9S0 171.7W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 11.8S0 170.6W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 14.4S9 169.0W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 9.1S0 175.9W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHWEST OF
WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TC 20P
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, THEN
SHIFT MORE POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY OF TC 20P IS EXPEC-
TED TO STRENGTHEN STEADILY UNTIL TAU 48, THEN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 252100Z0, 260300Z1, 260900Z7 AND 261500Z4.//

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