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Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 21:39:37 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 140339
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 5N90W
6N105W 1N112W 4N130W 5N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED WELL NW OF THE AREA IS
IMPARTING A CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. SWLY WINDS OF 40-60 KT ARE SEEN IN THIS
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 110W IS DOMINATED BY
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 10N125W. THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N ALONG 21N120W TO BEYOND 32N119W. THE
RIDGE EXTENDS N INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS MOVING OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

E OF 110W...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS
SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A MORE BROAD SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WITH AXIS FROM NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SW TO 5N107W.
DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 110W IS KEEPING THE AREA
RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION FREE.

COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TONIGHT.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WINDS WILL ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$
BROWN

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