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Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 03:11:18 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 070911
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 5N93W 7N100W 6N110W 7N120W
8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A FAST PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND LOWS CONTINUES TO
TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST JUST N OF THE AREA. WEAKENING FRONTS
WITH THESE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE S OF 32N. AN
OCCLUDED GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM WSW OF SAN
FRANCISCO AND ITS COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 30N128W
25N138W 25N140W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT A SECOND
BOUNDARY IS SAGGING S OF 30N BETWEEN 127W-138W. THE UPPER FLOW
IS MOSTLY ZONAL OVER THE FRONT AND THE STRONGER DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION JUST N OF 32N MOVING TOWARDS SRN CALIFORNIA.
FARTHER S...A BROAD UPPER TROF IS AMPLIFYING ALONG A LINE FROM
27N110W 16N130W WITH FLOW CONFLUENCE PRODUCING A SMALL POCKET OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 122W-135W. INCREASED
UPPER MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS 140W BETWEEN 4N-20N TOWARDS A
LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 7N114W...WHICH IS FUNNELING SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS NEWD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.

E OF 110W...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROF STRETCHES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SW PAST THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 10N100W EQ105W AND IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NICARAGUA.
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W-103W NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE TROF AXIS BUT OTHERWISE DEEP CONVECTION IS
NON-EXISTENT. A FEW TSTMS HAVE ALSO BEEN POPPING OVER WRN
COLOMBIA WITH SOME MOVING TO THE COAST. THE GAP WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PANAMA HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH MODERATE WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.

$$
RRG

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