

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Thu, 17 Feb 2005 04:24:29 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1GKOL43040686	for
<[email-masked]>; Thu, 17 Feb 2005 04:24:22 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1GHW2VP029528; Wed,
16 Feb 2005 14:16:19 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          361173 for [email-masked]; Wed,
16 Feb 2005 14:16:18 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1GKGIAl084348
for <[email-masked]>; Wed, 16 Feb 2005 14:16:18 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1GKFx3u001910
for          <[email-masked]>; Wed,
16 Feb 2005 14:16:00 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j1GKFxsV001909 for [email-masked]; Wed,
16 Feb 2005 14:15:59 -0600 (CST)
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 14:15:59 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 14.4S9 169.2W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 169.2W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 16.5S2 167.9W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 18.4S3 166.4W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 20.7S9 164.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 22.9S3 163.3W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 27.1S0 160.9W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 168.9W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
90 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127, 140 AND
155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL
DEFINED EYE. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
EASTWARD UNDER STEERING INFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TC 19P.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 46 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1, 170900Z7, 171500Z4 AND 172100Z1.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.