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Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 07:45:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 14.8S3 139.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 139.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.4S0 139.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.1S8 139.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.0S8 139.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 17.7S5 139.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 139.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (HARVEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
385 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION. A 060449Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANTS. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH-
WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070300Z0 AND 071500Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P
(MEENA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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