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Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 02:44:22 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 22.0S4 159.3W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 159.3W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 23.8S3 158.8W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 25.9S6 157.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 28.0S0 156.3W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 29.9S0 153.5W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 159.2W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT
ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPID
DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND
170900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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