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Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 20:08:27 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__C230066_P2 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 060000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 06/0203 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 171.2E
AT 060000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES9 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION.  CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45
KNOTS.  WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED BUT THE CDO AND BANDING FEATURE HAVE
WEAKENED DURING PAST 6 HOURS. LLCC IS UNDER DEEP CONVECTION IN CDO.
MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DRAWN INTO NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND HAS SUPPRESSED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND CDO. SST AROUND
30C. IRREGULAR CDO DIAMETER 1.1 DEGREE YIELDS DT=2.0. FT BASED ON PT
OF 3.5. DVORAK ASSESSMENT  T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12HRS. TC KERRY IS LOCATED
JUST EAST OF A NARROW 250HPA TROUGH IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
UPPER OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS. WEAK
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE INTERACTION WITH LAND OCCURS AROUND 061800 UTC. GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO MOVE KERRY SOUTHWEST THEN WEST, WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 14.8S 168.9E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 15.6S 165.9E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 16.1S 163.1E MOV W AT 15 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 16.5S 161.5E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON  WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
060730 UTC.

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