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Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 14:09:33 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 9.8S7 175.9W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S7 175.9W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 11.0S2 174.2W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 12.4S7 172.7W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 14.1S6 171.0W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 16.2S9 169.1W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 20.7S9 165.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.1S2 175.5W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARN-
ING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90, 115 AND 127 KNOTS. TC 19P IS
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 19P
HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH TC 18P TO ITS
SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 42
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9, 150900Z5, 151500Z2 AND
152100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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