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Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 08:28:47 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 9.4S3 177.1W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 177.1W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 10.1S2 175.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 11.1S3 174.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 12.4S7 173.0W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 14.0S5 171.3W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 18.0S9 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 9.6S5 176.8W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475
NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARN-
ING POSITION IS BASED ON 141130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77, 90, 102 AND 115 KNOTS. TC 19P HAS
BEGUN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST, AND IS FORE-
CAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. ANI-
MATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 19P HAS STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IT
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH TC 18P TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z8, 150300Z9, 150900Z5 AND 151500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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