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Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 10:29:37 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 051629
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 2N77W 6N90W 9N130W 9N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS AT 139W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 109W TO 117W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 130W...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 140W ENTERS REGION
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING W OF 130W.  GOOD MOISTURE
CONTENT IN AIR MASS EXCEPT QUITE DRY S OF 6N.  STRONG 80 KT JET
CORE DECREASES SPEED TO LESS THAN 50 KT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE E OF 130W.

FROM 130W TO 100W...
PERSISTENT AND WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONIC VORTEX REMAINS ANCHORED
AT 28N112W OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SW TO 12N118W.  DECREASE
IN JET CORE WIND CAUSES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N
WITHIN 600 NM NW OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING W SIDE OF VORTEX APPEARS WITH ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE
CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND W CENTRAL MEXICO.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS TROPICAL WATER SOURCE EXTENDS S OF 5N.
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXTENDS AS FAR E AS TEXAS.

E OF 100W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 90W MAINTAINS DRY
AIRMASS OVER REMAINING AREA S OF 20N E OF 100W.  VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA EXTEND INTO ITCZ WITH NO DEEP
CONVECTION E OF 107W.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG RIDGE OVER SW N ATLC CONTINUES
PROMPTING STRONG WIND OVER CARIBBEAN AND SPILLING OVER E PAC
ACROSS PASSAGES IN GULFS OF PANAMA...PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC.
GALE WARNING AND OTHER STRONG WIND SPEEDS FORECASTED TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT 24-36 HRS BUT SWELLS LIKELY TO REMAIN LONGER.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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