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Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 16:11:13 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 282210
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 4N70W 4N94W  1N107W  6N140W.
DECREASING ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS E OF 81W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 120W
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS W OF 120W BRINGING MOISTURE INTO
EPAC BASIN WHICH IS OTHERWISE DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF WATER.  80-90 KT JET CORE CROSSES FROM 22N140W TO 30N120W
WHERE IT THEN MERGES WITH SECOND SUBTROPICAL WIND MAXIMUM.
AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE IS OF LITTLE HELP FOR THE ITCZ WHICH
REMAINS WITH ONLY PATCHY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION.

E OF 120W
E OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRONG SUBSIDENCE SITS ACROSS ENTIRE
OF REMAINDER OF BASIN...WITH ONLY MINOR EXCEPTION A SMALL AREA
OF CLOUDS S OF 7N E OF 86W.  DRYNESS EXTENDS WELL BEYOND EPAC
AREA INTO ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF SPAC BASINS.

WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO EPAC CONTINUES THROUGH
GULFS OF PANAMA AND PAPAGAYO...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE ANOTHER 48
HR WHILE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND SHOULD START BLOWING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO NEXT 36 HR.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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