

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sun, 23 Jan 2005 20:18:25 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0NCIKfL017753	for
<[email-masked]>; Sun, 23 Jan 2005 20:18:21 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0NBSaqk050774; Sun,
23 Jan 2005 06:08:02 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8e)
with spool id 307444 for [email-masked]; Sun,
23 Jan 2005 06:08:01 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0NC80wF034224
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 23 Jan 2005 06:08:00 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0NC7roX020758
for          <[email-masked]>; Sun,
23 Jan 2005 06:07:54 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11/Submit)
id j0NC7rWq020757 for [email-masked]; Sun,
23 Jan 2005 06:07:53 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 06:07:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 231206

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 20/8/20042005
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/23 AT 1200 UTC :
25.6S / 44.9E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/4.5 /W  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 120   SO: 100   NO: 100
50 KT       NE: 020   SE: 020   SO: 020   NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/24 00 UTC: 27.9S/47.4E, MAX WIND=060KT.
24H: 2005/01/24 12 UTC: 30.4S/51.7E, MAX WIND=050KT.
36H: 2005/01/25 00 UTC: 33.6S/56.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/01/25 12 UTC: 37.5S/63.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/01/26 00 UTC: 40.3S/70.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2005/01/26 12 UTC: EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ERNEST KEEPS ON WEAKENING. CENTRE IS LOCATED CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN
MALAGASY COAST. THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ORGANIZATION, CONVECTION HAS
REODED
ON THE WESTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATIONS WILL
STILL
CONCERN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
THE TRACK SHOULD MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTWARDS, QUICKLY ACCELERATING, AND
THE
SYSTEM SHOULD START ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS,
EVACUATING WITH THE TROUGH.=

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.