

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sun, 06 Feb 2005 20:17:55 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j16CHnY0092901	for
<[email-masked]>; Sun, 06 Feb 2005 20:17:50 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j16C03aD100200; Sun,
06 Feb 2005 06:12:26 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          142975 for [email-masked]; Sun,
06 Feb 2005 06:12:26 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j16CCQdp075102
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 06 Feb 2005 06:12:26 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j16CCEtv014778
for          <[email-masked]>; Sun,
06 Feb 2005 06:12:14 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j16CCEZf014777 for [email-masked]; Sun,
06 Feb 2005 06:12:14 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 06:12:14 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 061210

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 6/13/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2005/02/06 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3S / 56.3E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 030   NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/07 00 UTC: 25.0S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT.
24H: 2005/02/07 12 UTC: 25.3S/54.7E, MAX WIND=045KT.
36H: 2005/02/08 00 UTC: 25.5S/53.7E, MAX WIND=050KT.
48H: 2005/02/08 12 UTC: 25.6S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT.
60H: 2005/02/09 00 UTC: 25.6S/51.2E, MAX WIND=040KT.
72H: 2005/02/09 12 UTC: 26.2S/50.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
STRONGEST WINDS ARE MAINLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURES.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY THE SOUTHWEST.
IT IS EXPECTED INTENSIFYING UNTIL TUESDAY BEFORE BEEING IN A
UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHWESTERN MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR.
MOST OF NWP MODELS AGREE TO THIS SCENARIO.=

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.