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Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 09:00:52 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian
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ABIO10 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/031500Z-031800ZFEB2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031421ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.4S6
63.1E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3S7 58.4E7, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 030949Z5 AMSR-E PASS
ALSO DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION
WITH INDICATION OF A POSSIBLE EYE FORMATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR EXISTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 031430) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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