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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 18:13:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
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WTIO30 FMEE 160012

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 22/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/16 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 53.0E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/16 12 UTC: 22.4S/51.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/17 00 UTC: 22.5S/51.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/17 12 UTC: 22.5S/50.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/18 00 UTC: 22.4S/50.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/18 12 UTC: 22.2S/49.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/19 00 UTC: 21.9S/49.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM REMAINS CONSTRAINTED BY MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR
AND THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED AT 50 NM WEST OF
MAIN
CLUSTER (ACCORDING TO NOAA16 IMAGERY AT 2300 UTC).
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS,
THEN SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO THIS SCENARIO AT SHORT RANGE AND
DISAGREE
AFTERWARDS, AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILD IN THE
SOUTHWEST.=

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