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Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 02:31:10 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B22  Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='DCC_BULK_LOW! 0,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, __DCC_FUZ1 0, __DCC_FUZ2 0, __HAS_MSGID 0,
__LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS12 NFFN 170600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B22  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 17/0828 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 167.1W
AT 170600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS,
DECREASING TO 100 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63
KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF THE
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

OLAF HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND SHOWS SIGNS OF SLIGHT WEAKENING.
DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH A MG EYE IN WHITE
SURROUND YIELDING DT=6.0, MET=6.0, AND PT=6.5; FT BASED ON DT:
T6.0/6.5/W0.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
AND OUTLFOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RELATIVE SHEAR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW AS OLAF MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, INCREASING SHEAR SOUTH
OF 20S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPEED THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SOME VARIATIONS IN SPEED DURING THE 24 TO
48 HOUR PERIOD AS OLAF INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF NANCY.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 18.2S 166.5W MOV SE 15KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 21.2S 164.9W MOV SE 15KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC NEAR 23.5S 163.3W MOV SE 12KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC NEAR 25.2S 161.8W MOV SE 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
171430 UTC.

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