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Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 23:43:44 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZFEB2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122151ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4 178.0W6,
APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CONVEC-
TION CONSOLIDATING AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEV-
ELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2
166.0W3, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0 165.2W4, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IN-
DICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WITH CONTINUED CROSS-
EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 122200)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. THE JTWC HOMEPAGE WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FROM APPROXIMATELY 150200Z8
TO 150830Z7FEB DUE TO MAINTENANCE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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