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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 14:15:06 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 12.2S5 173.6W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 173.6W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 13.8S2 171.5W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 15.9S5 169.6W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 18.0S9 168.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 20.3S5 166.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 24.2S8 164.6W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 173.1W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7 ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
127 AND 140 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SUSTAINED STRONG RADIAL OUFLOW AND A RECENT
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z5 IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0, 160900Z6,
162100Z0 AND 170300Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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