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Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2005 18:06:32 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian
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ABIO10 PGTW 280030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/280030Z-281800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7S1 77.0E4,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9S4 77.3E7 APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW BUT IS BOUNDED TO THE NORTH BY A REGION OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.5S9 41.5E0
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.4S8 42.7E3 APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A MOSTLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MADAGASCAR WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER LAND. ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW BUT
IS BOUNDED TO THE SOUTH BY A REGION OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR AND UPDATE
PARA 2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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