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Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 15:47:50 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 012147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 4N82W 5N90W 4N100W 5N110W 5N120W 8N139W
8N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF
133W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
LONGWAVE TROUGH PENETRATING INTO S CENTRAL AREA NEAR 5N120W
EXPECTED TO MOVE E ALONG 115W IN NEXT 24. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ASSOCIATED W OF 122W. MID/UPPER MOISTURE S OF POLAR BRANCH
SPILLING OVER BAJA/MEXICO E OF 122W. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH 100 KT
MAX EXTENDS FROM 19N123W TO SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. ANOTHER 110 KT JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE POLAR BRANCH N OF 27N IS ENTERING THE NW AREA DIGGING INTO
TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...TROUGHING REMAINS FROM WASHED OUT FRONT FROM
30N114W TO 25N126W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ
EXCEPTED FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 133W.

E OF 110W...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER MEXICO/SW TX FORECAST TO BUILD AND MOVE E
ALONG 93W DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. MID TROUGH NOW OVER SW
CARIB/GULF OF PANAMA/EXTREME EPAC FROM 5N84W THROUGH 15N76W.
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES ENTIRE REGION
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. LIGHT TO MODERATE
ELY TRADES UP TO 20 KT SPILLING OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
ENTERING EPAC WATERS N OF 5N AND SPREADING TO 110W EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NEXT 48 HR.

$$
ROBERTS

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