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Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2005 06:18:29 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 101216

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 6/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/10 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0S / 53.4E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/11 00 UTC: 18.4S/53.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/11 12 UTC: 18.6S/53.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/12 00 UTC: 18.7S/54.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/12 12 UTC: 19.1S/55.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/13 00 UTC: 20.0S/56.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/13 12 UTC: 21.0S/56.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND POORLY ORGANIZED. LOCATION OF THE
LLCC
, WHICH IS BADLY DEFINED, IS UNCERTAIN.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AT SHORT RANGE. AT MEDIUM RANGE,
FORECASTED
TRACKS OF NWP MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENTS. IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS
TOWARD THE TROUGH.

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT ACTUALLY JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=

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