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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 12:21:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 151820

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 21/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/15 AT 1800 UTC :
22.0S / 53.4E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/16 06 UTC: 22.2S/51.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/16 18 UTC: 22.5S/50.7E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/17 06 UTC: 22.6S/50.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/17 18 UTC: 22.4S/49.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/18 06 UTC: 21.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
72H: 2005/02/18 18 UTC: 21.3S/49.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM REMAINS CONSTRAINTED BY MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR
EVEN THE CONVECTION IS NEARER OF THE CENTER SINCE LAST FEW HOURS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS,
THEN SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO THIS SCENARIO AT SHORT RANGE AND
DISAGREE
AFTERWARDS, AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILD IN THE
SOUTHWEST.=

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