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Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 04:19:27 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 251019
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N78W 5N95W 4N110W 8N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 95W-96W.

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT JETSTREAM COMPOSED OF TWO ENERGIZED BRANCHES IS
CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 15N140W ALONG 15N125W TO 17N115W
WHERE THE FLOW SPLITS. ONE BRANCH TURNS CYCLONICALLY NE ACROSS
OLD MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE SECOND BRANCH TURNS
ANTICYCLONICALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES DIFFUSED NEAR 101W.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS REVEAL MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE RANGE 70-90
KT WITHIN THE JET CORE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH GENERALLY WITHIN
THE AREA CONFINED FROM 20N-26N E OF 120W.

N OF THE JET...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RACING
EASTWARD FROM 32N124W SW ALONG 24N127W TO 18N135W. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING W OF THE TROUGH IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SINKING AIR SEEN N OF THE
JETSTREAM W OF 130W. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW JUST E OF THE AREA
N OF 25N E OF 117W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA.

IN THE TROPICS...UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9N125W TO 10N110W...ORIGINATING FROM
FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 120W-126W. ELSEWHERE...
DRY AIR IS INDICATED S OF THE JET MERGING WITH EVEN DRIER AIR
DESCRIBED BELOW.

IN THE SUBTROPICS...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 18N E OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING
ENE TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDING ALONG THE MOISTURE PLUME AS SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ARE HELPING TO TRIGGER OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERED AND
ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME.

NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 2N126W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA SE
OF THE JETSTREAM E OF 110W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN
ELSEWHERE S OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH.

$$
AGUIRRE

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