

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sat, 05 Feb 2005 02:56:11 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j14Iu6gq069606	for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 05 Feb 2005 02:56:08 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j14Fxxpa069044; Fri,
04 Feb 2005 12:48:11 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          107570 for [email-masked]; Fri,
04 Feb 2005 12:48:10 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j14ImAab052068
for <[email-masked]>; Fri, 04 Feb 2005 12:48:10 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j14Im2Jj002154
for          <[email-masked]>; Fri,
04 Feb 2005 12:48:02 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j14Im2t8002153 for [email-masked]; Fri,
04 Feb 2005 12:48:02 -0600 (CST)
Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 12:48:02 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 041846

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 28/12/20042005
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12  (GERARD)

2.A POSITION 2005/02/04 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.6S / 58.6E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 MOINS /D  0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 220   SE: 300   SO: 280   NO: 160
50 KT       NE: 110   SE: 110   SO: 090   NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/05 06 UTC: 32.1S/61.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2005/02/05 18 UTC: 35.5S/65.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2005/02/06 06 UTC: 38.8S/70.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/02/06 18 UTC: 41.0S/77.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/02/07 06 UTC: 44.0S/90.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CI=T=4.0+
EXTENTION OF WINDS ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA
THE SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING (BIG EYE CAN BE SEEN ON MICRO-WAVE
IMAGERY; SEE SSMI OF 1456Z), BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY SUFFER FROM A UPPER
LEVEL
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW .
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON  HEADING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS JUST BEFORE
THE
TROUGH.=

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.