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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 02:06:03 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 11.5S7 174.5W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 174.5W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 13.1S5 172.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 15.0S6 170.4W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 17.3S1 168.3W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 19.9S9 166.2W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 24.3S9 162.9W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 174.0W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-
WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
150530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE EYE HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY CLOUDED, HOWEVER EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT
MOVES IN THE WAKE OF TC 18P. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 30, THEN START TO DECREASE AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z2, 152100Z9, 160300Z0 AND 160900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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