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Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 14:33:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='DCC_BULK_LOW! 0,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, __DCC_FUZ1 0, __DCC_FUZ2 0, __HAS_MSGID 0,
__LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 071800
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 07/2010 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [975hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 162.3E
AT 071800 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, 1426Z AMSUB DATA AND PERIPERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED WESTWARD AND SLOWED SLIGHTLY IN PAST 3
HOURS, ALTHOUGH 24HR AVERAGE MOVEMENT REMAINS WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT
15 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WINDS
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120
MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE IN NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

SYSTEM ORGANISATION CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING PAST 24 HOURS WITH
EXPANSION OF CDO DURING PAST 3 HOURS. SST AROUND 30C. LLCC EMBEDDED
IN LG SHADE GIVES DT=4.5. FT BASED ON MET AND PT=4.0. DVORAK ANALYSIS
T4.0/4.0MINUS/D1.0/24HRS. TC KERRY IS MOVING WSW NORTH OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER OUTFLOW GOOD BUT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC KERRY IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST SLOWING WSW THEN W OR WNW MOVEMENT
DURING NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.3S 160.3E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 19.2S 159.2E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 19.3S 158.6E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 19.1S 157.8E MOV WNW AT 5 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
080200 UTC.

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