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Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 22:00:59 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 050400
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 3N77W 10N119W 8N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF 7N113W AND
WITHIN 15 NM OF 8N139W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA HAS MEAN AXIS ALONG 15N145
30N143W TO A SHARP COLLAPSING CREST NEAR 39N119W. ITS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THIS DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF
135W WITH UPPER MOISTURE SPILLING ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS W 0F
132W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO A MID
TO UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 25N115W. THE ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 132W AND
110W...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A BROAD RIDGE WITH
AN AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 32N132W TO 19N112W.

AN UPPER WIND MAXIMA EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS CIRCULATION...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 20N140W 12N121W
WITH THE FLOW SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH TURNING CYCLONICALLY NE TO
NEAR 30N105W WHERE IT SPLITS AGAIN WITH THE MAIN BRANCH
CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CONUS.

WHERE THE UPPER FLOW SPLITS NEAR 12N121W A LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIES
ALONG 10N116W 22N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE
12N111W TO 18N113W. THE UPPER JET TAPS THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
THIS CONVECTION AND ADVECTS IT NE ALONG THE WIND MAXIMA ACROSS
CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND TEXAS EVENTUALLY TURNING E OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TO THE E OF 100W...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 8N92W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS NW TO NEAR 35N95W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED
S OF 22N E OF 98W AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...NLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS INCLUDING THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND
FONSECA AND PANAMA AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
SIMILARLY...A GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS SURGES
TO NEAR STORM FORCE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE
IN 24 HOURS.
$$
NELSON

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