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Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 02:33:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 13.9S3 167.0W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 167.0W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 14.7S2 165.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.2S9 164.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.2S1 163.0W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.5S7 161.6W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 166.7W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 040530Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
VENTILATION IN THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD AS A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. ALL AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND THE OUTFLOW FAVORABLE, SO THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS
OF NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, WBAR, AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//

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