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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 10:03:50 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 151603
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 3N77W 6N96W 2N102W 5N123W
9N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 107W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 6N153W WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE ITCZ CRESTING
IN THE DISCUSSION ALONG 11N140W 2N120W. A LARGE MID TO UPPER
ANTICYCLONE ESTIMATED NEAR 14N110W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 115W AND 95W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE SW AN UPPER CYCLONE IS
ESTIMATED NEAR 7N116W BUT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING. AN UPPER
TROUGH LIES ALONG 1N103W TO 16N94W SEPARATING THIS ANTICYCLONE
FROM ANOTHER ESTIMATED NEAR 4N73W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SE OF
LINE 4N88W 18N86W 22N75W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 92W AND 107W.

ALTHOUGH THE E PORTION OF THE N PACIFIC BASIN IS UNDER A
LONGWAVE RIDGE..AN EMBEDDED MID TO UPPER CYCLONE IS STATIONARY
NEAR 35N133W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE CYCLONE ALONG
28N130W 22N137W. A RE-INFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
RAPIDLY SE INTO THE SW QUADRANT OF THE MID TO UPPER CYCLONE. AT
THE SURFACE...A LOW IS CENTERED AT 35N130W 1000 MB WITH A COLD
FRONT SW ALONG 32N124W TO 20N130W...THEN DIFFUSE TO 14N140W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS OBSERVED N OF 23N WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE FRONT. SEVERAL SECONDARY SURGES ARE ROTATING
AROUND THE THE CYCLONE ACCOMPANIED BY SW TO NW WIND SHIFTS. ONE
ONE THESE SURGES IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N127W 26N136W AND
ACCOMPANIED BY BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS.

A WESTERLY UPPER WIND MAXIMA...ABOUT 600 NM WIDE...HAS AXIS FROM
12N140W TO NEAR 12N134W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW SPLITS. ONE BRANCH
TURNS CYCLONICALLY NE ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SPLITTING AGAIN NEAR
30N122W. MODERATE MOISTURE NOTED ALONG THIS SEGMENT OF JET WITH
STRONG DRYING NOTED NW OF THE THE UPPER TROUGH. THE OTHER BRANCH
OF THE SOUTHERN SPLIT OF THE WESTERLY JET CONTINUES SE INTO THE
UPPER CYCLONE AT 7N116W AND LOSES IDENTITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TRACERS DISSIPATE.

N WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNRISE THIS
MORNING ATTRIBUTED TO DRAINAGE AND NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PAST
MORNING HEATING. NE 15 KT WINDS ALSO DETECTED ON QSCAT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND W PORTION OF GULF OF PANAMA. SIMILAR LATE
NIGHT WINDS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW DAYS. NW TO N 20 KT WINDS ALONG SW
COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AS HIGH PRES NEAR
26N118W SHIFTS E.

$$
NELSON

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