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Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 09:48:15 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 091548
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 6N77W 5N98W 9N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF 8N126W.
WIDELY SCATTERED WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS E OF 83W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH MAIN AXIS ALONG 137W HAS
CYCLONIC VORTEX WELL N  OF AREA NEAR 46N128W.  FAIRLY DRY AIR
MOVING E ENTERS 140W ALONG TROUGH AXIS.  FURTHER E...STRONG
100 KT JET CORE ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
N BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO.  ACTUAL INCLINATION OF TROUGH
NOT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH LIFTING AT THIS TIME ALBEIT EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS ALONG BAJA W COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N128W TO 28N140W
SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE NEXT 24 HRS.  WEAK LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB
NEAR 28N142W WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW WILL ENTER FORECAST
WATERS NEXT 12 HRS INCREASING SW WIND AHEAD OF FRONT.

E OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS AXIS FROM 30N110W TO ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 8N122W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF
AXIS DUE TO CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINING VERY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER MOST OF MEXICO AND SW THROUGH NRN NICARAGUA AND FORECAST
WATERS.  WIDELY SCATTERED ITCZ CONVECTION ALONG 6N E OF 82W IS
ONLY MOISTURE NOTED.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG NE WIND OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN SPILLING
OVER INTO EPAC THROUGH GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA WITH GULF
OF MEXICO HIGH PRES BLOWING GALE FORCE WIND ACROSS GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.  MERGING WIND AND SWELLS INCREASING SEA HEIGHTS AND
SWELL TRAINS ENHANCING CONFUSED SEAS.  GFS DECREASES TEHUANTEPEC
GALE WITHIN 48 HRS AND SUBSIDE REMAINING WINDS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.  FORECAST AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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