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Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 21:44:19 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 070344
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 2N78W 2N106W 8N125W 6N131W
6N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
115W AND 122W AND BETWEEN 128W AND 137W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OVER THE WEST PORTION HAS MEAN AXIS ALONG
135W S OF 23N. AN UPPER CYCLONE CYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY SE
THROUGH THE NW CORNER OF DISCUSSION AREA...WITH CIRCULATION
CENTER AT 27N136W. OTHERWISE...A NEGATIVE TILT MID TO UPPER
TROUGH HAS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N114W TO 13N107W. A BAND OF UPPER
MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE
OF LINE 25N133W 20N113W THEN NARROWS TO WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
25N106W 32N976W.

MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N122W 16N109W 23N99W THEN NARROWS TO
BEYOND 32N93W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG 32N132W
19N107W.

TO THE N OF 15N...THE UPPER MOVES ELY ACROSS THE RIDGE THEN
CONTINUES CYCLONICALLY E THEN NE ACROSS MEXICO. TO THE S OF 15N
THE UPPER FLOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE RIDGE WITH FLOW SPLITTING
NEAR 8N110W...WITH ONE BRANCH TURNING CYCLONICALLY NE MERGING
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER FLOW. THE OTHER BRANCH TURNS SE INTO
A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 5N102W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL
EVIDENT FROM 5N122W TO 20N110W.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
ESTIMATED OVER COLOMBIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 21N E OF 90W AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...THE GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
WEAKENED...BUT NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH
THIS OROGRAPHIC GAP AND SIMILAR GAPS FURTHER TO THE S...
INCLUDING THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA AND PANAMA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT...BECOMING MOSTLY
DIURNAL SURGES...OCCASIONALLY TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

$$
NELSON

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