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Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 14:15:19 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 061800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 06/2012 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1S 159.3W
AT 061800 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9&10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE FURTHER. CYCLONE WEAKENING. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 115
KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

EYE TEMPERATURE HAS RAPIDLY WARMED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS INDICATING A
WEAKENING TREND, ALTHOUGH MEENA IS STILL MAINTAINING OVERALL PATTERN.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH BLACK EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG
IN CMG SURROUND. DT STANDS AT 6.0, MET=5.0 AND PT=5.5 YIELDING
T6.0/6.5/W0.5/24HRS. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
CYCLONE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF JET ENTRANCE REGION.  MEENA IS BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST UNDER A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST STEERING FIELD. 20
TO 30 KNOTS SHEAR EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF MEENA AND SEEMS TO BE TAKING
ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT WITH AN ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 23.9S 156.8W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 26.5S 153.4W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 28.7S 149.3W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 30.2S 145.0W MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC MEENA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 070230 UTC OR EARLIER.

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