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Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 01:26:04 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A19 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 130600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 13/0723 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6S 159.9E
AT 130600 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS.
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR KERRY'S CENTRE HAS WEAKENED, REVEALING AN
EXPOSED LLCC. DRY AIR APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED THE CYCLONE CENTRE AND
TOGETHER WITH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS SUPPRESSED DEEP CONVECTION. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND BE AFFECTED BY LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. OUTFLOW STILL GOOD IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS AND CONSENSUS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH
FURTHER WEAKENING AND EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 24.6S 158.6E MOV SW AT 8 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 25.3S 157.3E MOV SW AT 6 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 26.1S 156.2E MOV SW AT 7 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 27.2S 155.5E MOV SW AT 8 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

KERRY HAS MOVED INTO BRISBANE'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON KERRY UNLESS THE CYCLONE RECURVES
INTO NADI'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

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