

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Fri, 11 Feb 2005 20:16:51 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1BCGkeg011801	for
<[email-masked]>; Fri, 11 Feb 2005 20:16:48 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1AMNULJ042790; Fri,
11 Feb 2005 06:10:12 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          248353 for [email-masked]; Fri,
11 Feb 2005 06:10:12 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1BCABLI037494
for <[email-masked]>; Fri, 11 Feb 2005 06:10:11 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1BC9t21025979
for          <[email-masked]>; Fri,
11 Feb 2005 06:09:55 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j1BC9txI025978 for [email-masked]; Fri,
11 Feb 2005 06:09:55 -0600 (CST)
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 06:09:55 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 111208

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 9/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/11 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0S / 55.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/12 00 UTC: 18.3S/56.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/12 12 UTC: 18.7S/56.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/13 00 UTC: 19.7S/57.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/13 12 UTC: 20.8S/57.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/02/14 00 UTC: 21.8S/56.7E, MAX WIND=035KT.
72H: 2005/02/14 12 UTC: 22.5S/55.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0-
THE SYSTEM GETS DIFFICULTIES TO INTENSIFY, CONVECTION REMAINS
FLUCTUATING
IN COVERAGE AND STRENGHT.
SITUATION IS UNCERTAIN, AND NWP ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ; EITHER THE
SYSTEM
REMAINS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND GETS DIFFICULTIES TO INTENSIFY (ARPEGE),
EITHER IT TRACKS POLEWARDS AND SLOWLY INTENSIFIES (UKMO AND ENSEMBLE
FORECAST AT ECMWF). THIS LAST SCENARIO HAS BEEN CHOSEN.=

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.