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Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 06:01:48 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: /ocean Reissued/161200z-161800zjan2005//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 161200
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/161200Z-161800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160752ZJAN2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160753ZJAN2005//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 160600Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B WAS LOCATED
NEAR 4.2N6 86.3E7, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, AND HAD DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 160900)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 160600Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S3 113.6E1, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 160600) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3S9
88.5E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S1 86.8E2, APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED ORG-
ANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOP-
MENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S9 61.5E2,
APPROXIMATELY 650 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR,
ADDED PARA 2.B.(2), AND UPDATED INFORMATION IN PARA 1.A.(1) AND
PARA 2.A.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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