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Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 14:26:39 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 12.4S7 80.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 80.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 13.4S8 78.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 14.8S3 75.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 16.0S7 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 16.9S6 69.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 80.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181730Z0
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45
KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING CONVECTION AND
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 11S IS RAPIDLY
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SLOWLY AS THE OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND
192100Z3.//

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