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Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 09:54:25 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 281554
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 28 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 4N78W 2N112W 6N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS E OF 81W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W.

..DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS LIES ALONG 32N105W 20N95W AND IS
SWINGING NE WITH TIME. A SECONDARY TROUGH IS SLIPPING INTO THE
N-CENTRAL WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 32N1124W 28N120W. A SMALL UPPER
CYCLONE CUT OF NEAR 10N107W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 7N134W
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO THE N CRESTING ALONG 17N140W 28N120W
23N112W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 6N89W WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGE
ALONG AN UPPER WIND MAXIMA...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
25N142W 28N115W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A COLD FRONT IS BLOCKED BY A
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 24N119W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING
ALONG 32N123W 23N140W. A FEW SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS DOMINATED BY DRY UPPER AIR
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ONLY THE ISOLATED CELLS ALONG THE ITCZ.

NLY FLOW TO 20 KT IS NOTED ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST E OF
90W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20
TO 25 KT IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AFTER 24 HOURS.

$$
NELSON

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