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Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 16:08:09 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 042207
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 5N77W 4N80W 7N86W 5N98W
8N122W 7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS
W OF 124W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 120W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 130W HAS ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 9N129W WHERE GOOD DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ENHANCES
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AXIS W OF 124W.  MODERATE JET CORE OF
80-90 KT ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO FORECAST AREA BUT WITH NO
TRIGGER TO PROMPT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

AT THE SURFACE...ONLY ITCZ ABOVE ACTIVITY MERITS ANY MENTION.

E OF 120W...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS AREA
FROM 120W TO 105W WITH MAIN AXIS ALONG 113W.  TROUGH LIFTING NWD
FORCED BY CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 36N117W BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO.  VERY STRONG
JETSTREAM...WELL OVER 150 KT...SHOULD SPLIT FURTHER UPSTREAM AND
COULD ENHANCE UPWARD FORCING AS DIFFLUENT PATTERN MOVES INTO
PLACE OVER SW CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH FROM 32N113W TO 23N121W FOLLOWS WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD ALSO HELP FORCING.  MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE S OF 25N E OF 110W SHOULD KEEP CENTRAL MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA IN DRY AIRMASS.

PLENTY OF AIR SPILLS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FUNNELING STRONG
WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO...FONSECA AND TEHUANTEPEC GAPS CONVERGING
OVER SE CORNER OF EPAC BASIN INCREASING SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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