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Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 10:19:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 061619
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 3AXIS 1N79W  5N92W  5N102W
8N117W  7N134W  8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS
FROM 122W TO 133W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 125W...
UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 138W CONTINUES MOVING E DISPLACING
TROUGH DOWNSTREAM AND SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRES.  SPLIT IN
JETSTREAM ALLOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AS MOISTURE
MOVES INTO BASIN WITH RIDGE.

FROM 100W TO 125W...
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG W COAST BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
ALTHOUGH CYCLONIC VORTEX REMAIN WELL N OF AREA WITH NOT
SUFFICIENT IMPACT IN DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN FORECAST
WATERS. TROUGH STILL ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG 100W
INTO S CENTRAL MEXICO...SE TEXAS AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS RESULTS
FROM CONVERGING WINDS.

E OF 100W...
STRONG MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO
CREATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF
REGION.  CONSEQUENTLY...SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER
FORECAST WATERS IS NON-EXISTENT.

AT THE SURFACE...TEHUANTEPEC WIND DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE AND
CONTINUE TO DECREASE NEXT 24 HRS.  WIND AT GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...
FONSECA AND PANAMA CONTINUE WITH 20 TO 25 KT WIND WITH
CONDITIONS PERSISTING NEXT 2 DAYS.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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