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Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 09:50:00 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 181549
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 1N78W 5N85W 5N99W 1N102W
2N113W 8N117W 6N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG WITHIN 30 NM
OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 101W AND W OF 115W.

..DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 155W
IS SHIFTING ENE ABOUT 10 DEG A DAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN N ATLC IS ALONG 70W AND IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE THROUGH PATTERN. BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS...AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 7B163W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NE THROUGH 28N137W AND ACROSS THE NW CONUS. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 35N104W THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 27N116W
AND 20N125W TO A BASE NEAR 9N132W. STRONG UPPER
DRYNESS/SUBSIDENCE NOTED WITHIN 480 NM OF TROUGH AXIS S OF 25N
AND WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS N OF 25N THEN NARROWING ALONG THE AXIS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

THUS...UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THIS DISCUSSION AREA TO
THE N OF 20N W OF 133W AS IT ADVECTS MOISTURE E ACROSS THE UPPER
RIDGE.  THE FLOW THEN BECOMES CYCLONIC THROUGH THE TROUGH AXIS
BECOMING A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WIND MAXIMA WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE
ALONG 10N119W 20N108W TO BEYOND 28N95W. ALTHOUGH ONLY A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 113W
AND 130W...THEIR DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE IN THIS WIND
MAXIMA EVENTUALLY DRYING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 10N88W AND IS SHIFTING NE WITH TIME. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
N ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST ALONG 30N103W 33N97W TO
30N83W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 4N73W WITH RIDGE NW TO NEAR 7N83W. THE UPPER
DIVERGES OVER THE ITCZ E BETWEEN 101W AND 85W...AND IS ENHANCING
A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS. OTHERWISE...STRONG UPPER DRYNESS/
SUBSIDENCE NOTED S OF 7N AND ELSEWHERE SW OF LINE 7N113W 23N98W
30N75W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A 1027 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N128W
WITH RIDGING SW TO 24N145W AND SE TO NEAR 20N110W. A LOW PRES
1009 MB INTRODUCED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS NEAR 4N101W AT 1200 UTC.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NO SHIP REPORTS THIS MORNING AT 1200 UTC
BUT A QUIKSCAT PASS HAS 45 KT AS OUR FORECAST. PLAN TO DROP OFF
TO 40 KT MAX IN 24 HOURS AND 35 KT IN 48 HOURS. CURRENT THINKING
IS GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LONGER THAT PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...PERHAPS TILL SUNSET THU. NE FLOW TO THE E OF
TEHUANTEPEC AREA AS FAR E AS GULF OF PANAMA...EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO MAX OF 30 KT AND CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS. NW
SWELLS FROM TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL MERGE WITH NE SWELLS E OF 93W
AND SPREAD S OF EQUATOR TO NEAR 8S REACHING GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AS
WELL.

$$
NELSON

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