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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 08:10:31 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- NEAR 19.2S2 158.7W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 158.7W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 21.2S5 158.7W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 22.9S3 159.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 24.2S8 159.9W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 25.3S0 158.8W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 158.7W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF RARATONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SIGNIFICANT OUT-
FLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BREAKDOWN IN DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL. DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS, TC 18P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THEN BRIEFLY SOUTH-
SOUTH-WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE STEERING RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THE INTENSITY
OF TC 18P WILL ALSO DECREASE ONCE IT APPROACHES THE TROUGH DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160300Z0 AND 161500Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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