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Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2005 18:38:50 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A20 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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WTPS11 NFFN 110000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A20 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 11/0035 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [945hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2S 156.0W
AT 070600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
DECREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS OVER 63
KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES
OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200
MILES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

CLOUD FILLED EYE STILL EVIDENT IN EIR IMAGERY, AND OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS RETAINED ITS STRUCTURE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITHIN LG SHADE GIVING A DT 0F 4.5, MET=4.5
AND PT=4.5 YIELDING T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24HRS. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION
OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. CYCLONE REMAINS NORTH
OF JET ENTRANCE UNDER A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST STEERING FIELD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON SOUTHEAST THEN EAST SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH SLIGHT SLOWING
OF FORWARD SPEED.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 26.8S 152.0W MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 28.8S 147.8W MOV SE AT 22 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 30.5S 144.0W MOV ESE AT 20 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 33.3S 140.6W MOV ESE AT 20 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC MEENA
UNLESS THE CYCLONE RECURVES BACK INTO THE NADI WARNING AREA.

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