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Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 01:41:12 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- NEAR 20.5S7 42.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 42.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 22.9S3 42.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 25.1S8 44.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 27.1S0 46.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 29.7S8 49.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 42.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
220530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM ALL
FIXING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE. TC
12S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF MADAGASCAR, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND
GOOD OUTFLOW WILL KEEP THE INTENSITY STRONG DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS, THEN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SST WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220600Z0 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND 230900Z4.//

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