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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 14:58:40 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 20.3S5 158.3W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 158.3W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 22.4S8 158.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 23.9S4 159.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 25.0S7 160.1W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 26.3S1 160.0W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 158.4W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
100 NM NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 151730Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
POLEWARD THEN BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER TAU 36. THE INTENSITY OF TC 18P
IS DECREASING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 AND 162100Z0. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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