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Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 09:36:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 021536
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 6N100W 8N120W 7N128W 6N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE AXIS
W OF 132W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45-60 NM OF THE AXIS
E OF 80W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N122W SEWD
TO NEAR 21N115W AND IS LIFTING NE AT 15-20 KT. LARGE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND ENHANCED LIFT IS SPREADING
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF
THE SEA OF CORTEZ INTO N CENTRAL MEXICO. THE SHORTWAVE HAS
PHASED IN WITH A LARGER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A DEEP UPPER
LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST SSE TO 25N120W. POLAR JET WITH 100 KT
SPEED MAX IS DIVING SE BEHIND THE TROUGH ALONG 31N135W TO
22N120W. STRONG WNWLY FLOW S OF THE JET AXIS IS SPREADING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ESEWD. E OF THE TROUGH...MERGED
POLAR-SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE SPEEDS EXCEEDING 100 KT IS
SWEEPING ACROSS NRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 27N119W TO A WEAK 1016 MB SFC LOW NEAR 25N123W TO 20N126W.

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 5N92W AND ASSOCIATED
RIDGE EXTENDS N OVER MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ...EXCEPT E OF 80W WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW HAS
ALLOWED ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR ALOFT. LOW AND MID
CLOUDS DEFINE THE ITCZ W OF 80W.

$$
COBB

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