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Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 12:34:04 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 231832

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 21/8/20042005
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/23 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.3S / 46.4E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/4.0 MOINS /W  1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 110   SE: 110   SO: 110   NO: 110
50 KT       NE: 020   SE: 020   SO: 020   NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/24 06 UTC: 29.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2005/01/24 18 UTC: 32.5S/54.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2005/01/25 06 UTC: 36.0S/60.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/01/25 18 UTC: 39.5S/67.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.
60H: 2005/01/26 06 UTC: 43.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=040KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0- ET CI=4.0-
ERNEST IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY, LOZING ORGANIZATION. CONVECTION HAS
REODED
ON THE WESTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATIONS WILL STILL CONCERN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR
FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

THE TRACK SHOULD MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTWARDS, QUICKLY ACCELERATING, AND
THE
SYSTEM SHOULD START ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS,
EVACUATING WITH THE TROUGH.=

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