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Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 09:25:27 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 181525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 6N90W 3N100W 6N110W 6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W WITH
AXIS FROM 32N126W 22N127W SSW TO 15N135W. NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LOCATED NEAR 32N129W. A
COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N1116W TO 15N126W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS  WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH N OF 27N. SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
1002 MB LOW NEAR 32N129W TO 27N131W TO 27N137W. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 26N
CREATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE WIDELY SHOWERS NEAR THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW...N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND
132W...WITH A FEW TSTMS N OF 30N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM 22N1232W ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN SE ARIZONA....WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 95-105 KT
WITHIN THE JET CORE. THESE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO ADVECT
TROPICAL MOISTURE NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SW
UNITED STATES. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY INLAND INTO
EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS INDICATED FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 125W.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR A BROAD EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 11N95W MOVING N 15 KT. RATHER DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY....EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 88W-95W AND AN AREA OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM SE OF JET STREAM.

$$
DGS

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