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Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 08:36:09 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 051200
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 05/1415 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [997HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 172.9E AT
051200 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS
FROM SECTORS NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS INCREASED SINCE LAST 6 HOURS. LLCC PLACED
NORTH OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NOW BECOMING OBSCURED BY DENSE CDO.
BANDING FEATURE IS SHAPING UP AND INCREASING CURVATURE INDICATING
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION WRAPS ABOUT 0.50 ON LOG10 YIELDING A
DVORAK OF T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C. 05F IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF A 250HPA OUTFLOW AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE DUE TO
APPROACHING SHARP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
OVER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND DECREASING. 05F IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED BY 500 HPA FLOW TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN
SOUTHWEST LATER. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE 05F SOUTHWEST WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 05F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 052000 UTC.

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