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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 14:29:46 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B16  Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS12 NFFN 151800
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B16  issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 15/2027 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [930HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 173.3W
AT 151800 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS BUT
EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATE. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES
OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN
THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

OLAF INTENSIFIED PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TOPS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH EYE WARMING. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH A DG
EYE IN CDG SURROUND YIELDING T6.5/6.5/D0.5/24 HRS. DT=7, PT AND MET
AGREE AT 6.5. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. SHEAR
ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE FURTHER ALONG PATH. OLAF IS BEING STEERED
EAST BY WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. STEERING TURNS NORTHWEST
AROUND 172W. SUBSEQUENTLY, SYSTEM STILL ANTICIPATED TO TURN SE AND
ACCELERATE. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK AND FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 13.8S 171.5W MOV SE 12KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 16.5S 168.9W MOV SE 13KT WITH 125KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 18.1S 168.2W MOV SE 13KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 20.0S 166.6W MOV SE 13KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
160230 UTC.

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