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Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 21:04:18 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 5.2N7 86.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.2N7 86.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 5.2N7 86.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 5.1N6 86.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 5.0N5 85.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 4.9N3 85.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 5.6N1 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 5.2N7 86.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 142330Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH GOOD OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN THE POLEWARD
DIRECTION. A RECENT 150002Z8 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHILE THE WINDS IN THE OTHER
QUADRANTS ARE LOWER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SITS
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR.
TC 02B IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE POLEWARD LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE (MSW) APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST OUT OF INDIA. TC 02B IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PULSE
IN INTENSITY AS NEITHER THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOR CLIMATOLOGY
SUPPORTS ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION PAST WEAK TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. THE APPROACH OF THE MSW TROF LATE, MAY SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THEREFORE, INCREASING
THE INTENSITY BY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE OF NOGAPS, UKMET, JGSM AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS
13 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5, 151500Z2, 152100Z9 AND
160300Z0.//

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