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Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 02:13:19 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
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WTPS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 18.2S1 161.5W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 161.5W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.9S1 159.9W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 23.5S0 157.7W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 26.0S8 154.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 28.4S4 150.7W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 161.1W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
060530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DUAL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
EYE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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