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Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 21:14:14 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 210313
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 4N77W 3N100W 8N115W
7N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
130W-132W AND 135W-138W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N 115.5W OR ABOUT 100 NM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE
CIRCULATION ALONG 20N115W TO 15N116W. THE CIRCULATION IS VERY
WELL-DEFINED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND COVERS THE AREA N OF
17N E OF 121W. S TO SW FLOW OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ...WESTERN MEXICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE SW UNITED STATES. DRIER AIR/MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
UPSTREAM A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W.
THE AREA S OF 15N W OF 105W IS DOMINATED BY WLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA.

E OF 105W...
MOST OF THIS AREA IS COVERED A BROAD RIDGE WHICH HAS AN AXIS
ALONG 98W.  WEAK TROUGHINESS IS SEEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PACIFIC E OF 85W. MOST OF THE AREA E OF 105W IS COVERED BY
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED CLOUDINESS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IS SEEN ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-
100W.

$$
BROWN

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