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Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 06:32:06 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Viii (s)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='DCC_BULK_LOW! 0,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, __DCC_BODY 0, __DCC_FUZ1 0, __DCC_FUZ2 0,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO20 FMEE 021230
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/02/2005
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/02/2005 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12 1000 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0S / 62.7E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES  SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 220 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS FAR FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/02/03 AT 00 UTC:
20.4S / 61.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/02/03 AT 12 UTC:
20.9S / 59.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION EXISTS NEAR THE CENTER MORE THAN 12 HOURS AGO BUT
ORGANISATION
IS LACKING AT THIS STAGE.
THIS SITUATION HOWEVER GIVES ROOM FOR POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION FOR
THIS
SYSTEM WHILE ASSUMING MORE TYPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTERN.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER SLOWLY AT
SHORT RANGE BEFORE RECURVING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS AT LATER RANGE.=

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