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Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 21:57:22 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 220357
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 6N133W 6N140W. NO CONVECTION OBSERVED.

DISCUSSION...
A 900 NM WIDE WESTERLY JETSTREAM IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE TROUGH
15N140W TO 13N122W WHERE THE FLOW SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH
CONTINUING CYCLONICALLY NE TO BEYOND 23N100W. THE SECOND BRANCH
TURNS ANTICYCLONICALLY SE AND LOSES IDENTITY ALONG 100W WHERE
STRONG DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED. ADDITIONALLY DRY AIR IS
INDICATED S OF THE JET...EXCEPT FOR A MOISTURE PLUME NOW MOVING
INTO THE AREA ALONG 7N W OF 133W.

N OF THE JET A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVE
TILT WITH TIME...BUT ITS MEAN AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG 32N120W
31N112W. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N125W AND IS MOVING SE WITH TIME. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 32N117W 20N125W 19N133W.

THE UPPER LEVELS N OF THE JET AXIS ARE DRY INDICATING MODERATE
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. AN EXCEPTION IS N OF 27N ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS ARE ENHANCED WITH THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ INTO
ARIZONA. A 120 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN
THE UPPER WIND MAXIMA...WITH AXIS FROM 11N140W TO 12N126W THEN
BROADENS TO 600 NM WIDE ALONG 20N110W 27N90W.

A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NEAR 3N82W AND ANOTHER NEAR
5N100W. PRONOUNCED DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT NOTED SE OF LINE 10N114W
25N80W EXCEPT FOR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM FORMER
ITCZ CONVECTION ADVECTED NE OVER WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

NE WINDS ARE SPREADING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE PAC
FROM 9N TO 12N E OF 92W.

$$
NELSON

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