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Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 09:23:29 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 301523
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 3N78W 5N90W 6N120W 5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 80W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR 35N108W
WSWWD THROUGH 30N116W...A SHEARED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 25N128W TO 23N133W. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE UNDERCUTTING
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE N OF THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 130W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED WITHIN 120-240 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS NOTED ABOVE EXTENDS FROM 22N122W
NEWD THROUGH 28N110W INTO W-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WAS ADVECTING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN CONUS. CORE SPEEDS WERE 110-120 KT PER
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM 30N127W THROUGH 25N120W TO 20N110W. NE TO E WINDS
OF 20-25 KT WERE OCCURRING S OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO 8N.

E OF 105W...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERED VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 105W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WAS AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE ITCZ E
OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

AT THE SURFACE...QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1200 UTC THIS MORNING
INDICATED NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AND 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH INDICATED LOW CLOUDS BANKED IN
THE PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS LEADING INTO THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO.

$$
COBB

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