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Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 15:43:07 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 092142
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 6N77W 4N100W 6N108W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF 9N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS E OF 87W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED WELL N OF AREA
DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOWN INTO NW PORTION OF
DISCUSSION AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AREA ALONG 138W
N OF 25N. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ABOUT 120-180 NM E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 27N. FARTHER E...A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS IS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 32N124W TO 28N130W. THE FRONT CONTINUES
W OF 130W TO BEYOND 27N140W WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM OF 100-110 KT EXTENDS
FROM 23N125W NE TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. JET STREAM IS ADVECTING COPIOUS MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE E OF 130W ACROSS MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW
UNITED STATES. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 9N120W HAS A
RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS NE OVER AREA BETWEEN 110W-120W TO OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING
A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N118W. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY IS STREAMING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. S OF 25N W OF 130W...MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DUE IN PART TO
CONFLUENT W-NW FLOW W AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EVIDENT S OF 15N E OF 120W ON E SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE.
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...LEAVING BEHIND A
STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER N PORTION OF AREA. RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
E AND REMAIN BETTER-DEFINED S OF 20N AS FLOW N OF 20N BECOMES
ZONAL.

E OF 110W...
MAIN FEATURE IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NICARAGUA SW OVER THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 3N94W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
W OF THE TROUGH IS NW-N WHICH IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO CONFLUENCE. THIS DRY AIR
COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM NICARAGUA WESTWARD. ALONG AND E OF TROUGH...DEEP MOISTURE
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG
ITCZ E OF 87W. STRONG LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IS
CAUSING PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS NEAR CARIBBEAN
COASTLINE OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...KEEPING MOIST CONDITIONS OVER SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG NE WIND OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE
SPILLING OVER INTO EAST PACIFIC THROUGH GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND
FONSECA WITH GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES BLOWING GALE FORCE WIND
ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 36 HOURS.

$$
MOLLEDA

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