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Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 00:19:00 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 230618

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 19/8/20042005
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/23 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5S / 43.5E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/5.0 /W  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 120   SO: 100   NO: 100
50 KT       NE: 020   SE: 020   SO: 020   NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/23 18 UTC: 26.2S/45.6E, MAX WIND=070KT.
24H: 2005/01/24 06 UTC: 28.5S/48.5E, MAX WIND=060KT.
36H: 2005/01/24 18 UTC: 30.5S/52.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/01/25 06 UTC: 33.0S/56.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/01/25 18 UTC: 36.5S/64.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0, CI=5.0-
ERNEST KEEPS ON WEAKENING. CENTRE IS LOCATED CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN
MALAGASY COAST, OR IS BRIEFLY PASSING ON LAND (SSM/I, 0336Z, 37 GHZ).
THE
SYSTEM HAS LOST ORGANIZATION, AND REMAIN SMALL. ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATIONS WILL CONCERN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 12
TO 18
HOURS.
THE TRACK SHOULD MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTWARDS, QUICKLY ACCELERATING, AND
THE
SYSTEM SHOULD START ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS,
EVACUATING WITH THE TROUGH.=

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