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Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 14:50:18 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B4  Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS12 NFFN 121800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B4  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 12/2047 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 178.1W AT
121800 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION INCREASED PAST 24 HOURS. STILL DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE LLCC UNDER THICK CIRRUS OUTFLOW. CONVECTION INCREASING AND
COOLING ABOUT THE CENTRAL AREA. BANDING TO NORTH DEVELOPING AND
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND A CONCENTRIC CENTRE. 08F STILL INFLUENCED BY
DIURNAL EFFECTS. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.2 ON LOG10 YIELDING A DVORAK OF
T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS. MET=2.5. PT=1.5. SST AROUND 30C. 08F REMAINS IN
A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENT SHEAR IS MINIMAL AND
ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE FURTHER.  STEERING OVER DEPRESSION IS
WESTERLY, AGAINST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, FORECASTING A SOUTHWEST TRACK.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON 08F. BRACKNELL AND NOGAPS
FAVOUR INTENSIFICATION WHILST OTHERS DISAGREE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
130230 UTC.

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