

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Fri, 21 Jan 2005 03:44:46 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0KJigRK058053	for
<[email-masked]>; Fri, 21 Jan 2005 03:44:43 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0JMMQ5w055378; Thu,
20 Jan 2005 13:41:23 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8e)
with spool id 233406 for [email-masked]; Thu,
20 Jan 2005 13:41:03 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0KJbGmv102566
for <[email-masked]>; Thu, 20 Jan 2005 13:37:16 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0KJbAWD002669
for          <[email-masked]>; Thu,
20 Jan 2005 13:37:10 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11/Submit)
id j0KJbAf3002666 for [email-masked]; Thu,
20 Jan 2005 13:37:10 -0600 (CST)
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 13:37:10 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 201837

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 9/8/20042005
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/20 AT 1800 UTC :
14.1S / 43.3E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.5/4.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 060   SE: 060   SO: 060   NO: 060
50 KT       NE: 025   SE: 025   SO: 025   NO: 025

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 750 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/21 06 UTC: 16.2S/42.1E, MAX WIND=065KT.
24H: 2005/01/21 18 UTC: 18.1S/41.3E, MAX WIND=070KT.
36H: 2005/01/22 06 UTC: 20.0S/41.0E, MAX WIND=070KT.
48H: 2005/01/22 18 UTC: 21.8S/40.9E, MAX WIND=065KT.
60H: 2005/01/23 06 UTC: 23.6S/41.1E, MAX WIND=055KT.
72H: 2005/01/23 18 UTC: 25.5S/42.0E, MAX WIND=045KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
THE EYE IS WELL DEFINED ON THE TRMM AT 1425Z, AND HAS CLEARLY APPEARED ON
THE IR IMAGER OVER THE LAST HOURS, AS THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME COLDER.
ERNEST IS A SMALL SYSTEM, WITH A ROUGHLY 300 KM DIAMETER.
ERNEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS IN
THE CHANNEL AND INTENSIFYING REGULARY.
JUAN DE NOVA SHOULD BE DIRECTLY CONCERNED IN THE NEXT HOURS.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.