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Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 15:02:55 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 111800
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 11/2026 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE [1000hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
168.4W AT 111800 UTC  MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON GOES10 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 35
KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
EAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

DEEP CONVECTION CONTNUES TO PERSIST NEAR LLCC. SYSTEM ORGANISATION
IMPROVING WITH SPIRAL BANDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. 09F IS LOCATED IN
A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED WEST
OF THE SYSTEM AND IS PROVIDING A SMALL WESTERLY SHEAR BUT MAY NOT
LAST. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ENHANCED BY
CROSS-EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW, AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY STEERING
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS 09F INTERACTS WITH A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT DT =2.5, MET=2.5, PT=2.0, FT CONSTRAINED BY RULES TO 2.0:
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 13.9S 167.7W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 14.0S 167.3W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 14.2S 167.2W SLOW MOV WITH 45 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 14.7S 167.0W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 09F WILL BE ISSUED AT
120230 UTC.

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