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Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 22:06:40 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 130406
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG LINE 5N77W 7N85W
4N110W 6N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45-60 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

..DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
20N129W NWD THROUGH 32N128W. RIDGE AXIS IS BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP
LAYERED LOW NW OF AREA ALONG 150W...AND ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW SWEEPING NEWD OVER ERN NEW MEXICO/W TEXAS. DESPITE THE
RIDGING OVER AREA...SW FLOW IS VERY STRONG WITH A MERGED
POLAR-SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM OF 100-110 KT ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 25N140W AND CUTTING NNEWD THROUGH 32N136W.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND SW OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LOW...A STRONGER NW POLAR JET STREAM OF 130-135 KT EXTENDS FROM
THE CALIFORNIA DESERT ESEWD THROUGH NRN SEA OF CORTEZ TO NRN
MEXICO NEAR 25N105W. OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...STRONG W-NW FLOW IS
DIGGING SW TO AREAS N OF 22N/23N...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS S OF
22N. AT THE SURFACE...A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE SEA OF CORTEZ
TO 24N111W. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA IS W OF 130W
WHERE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD BY STRONG
UPPER LOW NEAR 150W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUDINESS N OF 20N BETWEEN 130W AND
137W. THE STRONG JETSTREAM HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS W OF 137W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS
ENTERING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SE WINDS OF 25-35
KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT N OF THE AREA AND AS
SUCH THE GALE WARNING ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE EXTREME NW PORTION
OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPIRE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2...AND WMO HEADER
FZPN03 KNHC.

S OF 20N W OF 100W...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A LARGE DEEP LAYERED
HIGH CONTROLS THE FLOW OVER MOST OF THIS AREA. THE RIDGE
MENTIONED IN SECTION ABOVE REMAINS ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 9N129W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OBSERVED OVER MOST OF AREA. THE HIGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

E OF 100W...
NEARLY STATIONARY BUT NARROW MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WRN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR SW TO NEAR
5N96W. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS W OF
TROUGH. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...WITH ONLY
CHANGE BEING A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SE MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED OVER SE MEXICO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AN INCREASE IN
NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BECOMING GALE FORCE IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS.

$$
COBB

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