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Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 09:30:07 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 201530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 8N82W 5N90W 5N140W.
THERE IS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 5.3N91.6W.

DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF A JETSTREAM
ALONG LINE 25N107W TO 12N140W.  A LOW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
NEAR 33N131W IS CIRCULATING MOIST MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL AIR
OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 27N EAST OF 132W.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS ALONG LINE THROUGH 32N126W 25N132W TO 22N140W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND N OF 28N FROM
123W TO 132W.  OTHERWISE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS NORTH OF
THE JETSTREAM ARE DRY WITH IMPLIED UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
CLEAR SKIES ARE NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 123W.  OTHERWISE MOSTLY
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA.  WITHIN 600 NM SE OF THE
JETSTREAM UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FLOWING NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO.  SOUTHEAST OF THE JETSTREAM TO 103W AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE FLOW.  VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ
WEST OF 103W.

EAST OF 108W MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FOUND EMBEDDED IN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NEAR 10N95W. SE OF THE LOW CENTER...WEAK TO
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT
5.3N91.6W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FLOWING NORTHEAST FROM THIS
AREA TOWARD COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.  ASIDE FROM THESE AREAS
THE AREA EAST OF 108W IS QUITE DRY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IMPLYING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  NORTH OF
THE ITCZ SKIES ARE CLEAR EAST OF 105W EXCEPT FOR THE CLOUDS
EMANATING FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION.  SOUTH OF THE ITCZ MOSTLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE OBSERVED.

$$
LL

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