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Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 20:10:14 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A19 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 070000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A19 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 07/0208 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [925hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9S 158.2W
AT 070000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE FURTHER. CYCLONE WEAKENING. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 100
KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 80 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

EYE HAS FILLED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS
WEAKENING. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE WITHIN BLACK
SHADE GIVING A DT 0F 5.0, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5 YIELDING
T5.0/6.0/W1.5/24HRS. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN
THE EASTERN SEMICRICLE BUT HAS DIMINISHED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE REMAINS
NORTH OF JET ENTRANCE. MEENA IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST UNDER A
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST STEERING FIELD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPERIENCING
20 TO 30 KNOTS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THIS IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON THE
SYSTEM AND IS GOING TO LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH AN ACCELERATION DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 25.6S 155.1W MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 28.0S 150.8W MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 29.7S 146.5W MOV ESE AT 25 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 32.0S 143.1W MOV ESE AT 25 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC MEENA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 070230 UTC OR EARLIER.

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