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Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 04:00:09 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 210959
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0505 UTC MON FEB 212005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS  N78W  1N85W  5N97W  5N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W
MID / UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 30N126W TO 25N130W MOVING E HAS
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS.  JETSTREAM
CORE OF 80 KT ENTERS AREA AT 30N140W AND SWINGS AROUND BASE OF
TROUGH THEN INCREASES TO 110 KT AS IT EXITS NEAR 30N122W.  S OF
20N...WELL ANCHORED RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 130W NOT MOVED BY
TROUGH HAS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED BY 140 KT JET
CORE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO JUST S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

E OF 110W
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 35N125W AND RIDGE
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.  ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT HELPS LOW LEVEL FORCING.

WEAK TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 3N TO 22N ALONG 87W BREAKS AN
OTHERWISE BLANKETING ZONAL FLOW OVER REMAINDER AREA.  LARGE
BROAD RIDGE OVER S AMERICA MAINTAINS DRY SUBSIDING AIRMASS OVER
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND S HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS CENTRAL
AMERICA.  VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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