

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Tue, 18 Jan 2005 00:01:58 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0HG1shQ011628	for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 18 Jan 2005 00:01:55 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0HBqwsI023564; Mon,
17 Jan 2005 09:57:42 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8e)
with spool id 161805 for [email-masked]; Mon,
17 Jan 2005 09:57:41 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0HFvfev042792
for <[email-masked]>; Mon, 17 Jan 2005 09:57:41 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0HFvZw7015445
for          <[email-masked]>; Mon,
17 Jan 2005 09:57:36 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11/Submit)
id j0HFvZh9015444 for [email-masked]; Mon,
17 Jan 2005 09:57:35 -0600 (CST)
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 09:57:35 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 171557
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 3N77W 4N85W 8N87W 2N98W
2N106W 8N115W 8N123W 5N130W 7N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N87W AND 4N95W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND
120W.

..DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 160W
IS NOW SHIFTING E ABOUT 10 DEG A DAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS IS ALONG 75W AND IS BECOMING MORE
POSITIVE TILT WITH TIME. BETWEEN THESE TROUGHS...AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 12N155W WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
EXTENDING NE THROUGH 33N140W AND ACROSS THE NW CONUS. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 32N116W THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 23N120W
AND 13N130W TO YET ANOTHER CYCLONE NEAR 10N144W WHICH IS LOSING
IDENTITY.

THUS...UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THIS DISCUSSION AREA TO
THE N OF 18N W OF 128W. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES CYCLONIC THROUGH
THE TROUGH AXIS BECOMING A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WIND MAXIMA ALONG
11N125W 24N113W TO BEYOND 32N105W.

TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 16N96W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO CREST
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN CRESTING JUST E OF THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE UPPER FLOW S OF THIS RIDGE DIVERGES OVER THE ITCZ E
BETWEEN 100W AND 85W...AND IS ENHANCING WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ATTM.

A SMALL MID LEVEL CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 11N116W WITH A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INTRODUCED ON 12Z ANALYSIS ALONG 8N118W 14N115W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF
12N115W.

STRONG UPPER DRYNESS/SUBSIDENCE NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE
10N135W 24N124W NARROWING BEYOND 33N109W. STRONG UPPER
DRYNESS/SUBSIDENCE NOTED S OF 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 150W...AND S
OF 23N BETWEEN 110W AND 60W.

A THE LOW LEVELS A 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N129W
WITH RIDGING SW TO 24N145W AND SE TO NEAR 20N110W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SHIP REPORT AT 1200 UTC INDICATES STORM
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. WILL EXTEND STORM WARNING FOR 12
HOURS TO 0000 UTC TUE. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 45 KT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THEREAFTER THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS AS COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED COSTA RICO. CURRENT THINKING IS GALE CONDITIONS WILL END
SUNSET WED. NE FLOW TO THE E OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA INCLUDING GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AND EVEN GULF OF PANAMA...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
MAX OF 30 KT AND CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS. NW SWELLS FROM
TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL MERGE WITH NE SWELLS E OF 93W AND SPREAD S
OF EQUATOR BY 36 HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AS WELL.

$$
NELSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.