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Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 15:37:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 202137
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 4N77W 3N91W 8N111W
6N138W  7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS LINE FROM 11N109W 8N112W
6N115W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS
W OF 125W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 26.5N 116W OR ABOUT 120 NM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE
CIRCULATION ALONG 20N116W TO 14N117W. THE CIRCULATION IS
EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND COVERS THE
AREA N OF 18N E OF 123W. S TO SW FLOW OVER THE SE PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SE BAJA PENINSULA...SOUTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ...WESTERN MEXICO
AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW UNITED STATES. UPSTREAM A BROAD
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 125W. THE AREA S OF 15N
W OF 105W IS DOMINATED BY WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

E OF 105W...
MOST OF THIS AREA IS COVERED A BROAD RIDGE WHICH HAS AN AXIS
ALONG 98W.  WEAK TROUGHINESS IS SEEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PACIFIC E OF 85W...SOUTH OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
MOST OF THE AREA E OF 105W IS COVERED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
WITH IS LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE CONCENTRATED CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS SEEN ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 84W-94W.

$$
BROWN

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