

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Thu, 17 Feb 2005 22:14:53 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1HEEmjJ096921	for
<[email-masked]>; Thu, 17 Feb 2005 22:14:49 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1HDnBfe057022; Thu,
17 Feb 2005 08:09:22 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          375973 for [email-masked]; Thu,
17 Feb 2005 08:09:21 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1HE9LN2092940
for <[email-masked]>; Thu, 17 Feb 2005 08:09:21 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1HE9BSf027060
for          <[email-masked]>; Thu,
17 Feb 2005 08:09:11 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j1HE9BuO027059 for [email-masked]; Thu,
17 Feb 2005 08:09:11 -0600 (CST)
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 08:09:11 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B23  Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS12 NFFN 171200
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B23  issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 17/1406 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [925HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 166.5W
AT 171200 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS,
DECREASING TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63
KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF THE
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

OLAF SHOWS SIGNS OF SLOW WEAKENING WITH EYE COOLING AND REDUCED
DEFINITION. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH A W EYE IN
CMG SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=5.5, AND PT=5.5; FT BASED ON PT:
T5.5/6.0/W1.0/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RELATIVE SHEAR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW AS OLAF MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, INCREASING SHEAR SOUTH
OF 20S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKENING
THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND SOME VARIATIONS IN SPEED DURING THE 24 TO 48 HOUR
PERIOD AS OLAF BECOMES MORE STRONGLY SHEARED.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC NEAR 19.8S 165.6W MOV SE 12KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC NEAR 22.5S 164.0W MOV SE 14KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC NEAR 24.6S 162.6W MOV SE 12KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC NEAR 26.0S 161.4W MOV SE 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
171430 UTC.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.