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Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 03:32:48 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 170932
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 3N87W 4N91W
3N97W 5N104W 8N122W 6N130W 7N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
NEAR 7N87W 7N89W 6N91W 3N95W 3N98W AND 6N110W. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ON ITCZ.

OTHER CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF ITCZ..ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 9N85W
AND 11N117W.

..DISCUSSION...
.W OF 110W...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH NW OF AREA. POLAR JET STREAKING AROUND SE
SIDE OF TROUGH WITH BROAD BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO MOVE INTO EXTREME NW CORNER OF AREA. 155 KT JET CORE NW OF
AREA PRODUCING THE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS.

OPEN UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM 20N140W TO
30N137W. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA SW TO 15N128W
WITH A VORTICITY CENTER NEAR 23N120W MOVING SLOWLY SE. WEAK JET
SE OF VORT CENTER SPEEDS ACROSS MEXICO AT 80 KT. TROUGH SETTING
OFF CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ NEAR 10N116W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF
25N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W.

.E OF 110W...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG 103W LIFTING NE SLOWLY AROUND UPPER
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SPEED DIVERGENCE AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PATTERN AROUND RIDGE HELPING CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG ITCZ
BETWEEN 83W AND 95W.

WEAK OPEN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO WITH STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
GULF OF MEXICO. PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 16 MB ACROSS ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ON PACIFIC SIDE.
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HR THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN.

$$
RRG

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