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Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 18:45:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 310044

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 16/11/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11  (EX-FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/31 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0S / 50.8E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/31 12 UTC: 23.7S/51.6E, MAX WIND=040KT.
24H: 2005/02/01 00 UTC: 25.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2005/02/01 12 UTC: 26.6S/50.1E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/02 00 UTC: 28.3S/50.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/02 12 UTC: 30.0S/51.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2005/02/03 00 UTC: 33.7S/53.6E EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
BECAUSE EX-FELAPI HAS RETRIEVED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IT HAS WELL
RE-ORGANIZED LAST FEW HOURS IN A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH IS
ANALYSED
T=2.5 IN DVORAK.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO INTENSIFYING NEXT FEW HOURS AND STAY
BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS, THEN TO KEEP ON TRACKING
SOUTHWARDS WITH THE NEXT TROUGH IN A WESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.=

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