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Date: Tue, 08 Feb 2005 21:53:23 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 090353
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 3N77W 5N88W 6N99W 5N109W
12N121W 7N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 92W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 26N124W IS DRIFTING NE. THE UPPER FLOW IS
CYCLONIC N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. MODERATE TO STRONG DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED SW OF OF LINE ALONG 32N132W 20N121W
1S124W.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES IS CENTERED AT 30N130W 1020 MB...
WITH A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 21N101W. THE HIGH IS BEING TO TO
BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED ALONG 32N134W 26N140W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 11N89W WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 120W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 7N132W 15N122W TO 22N113W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING E
OF THE TROUGH...ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 9N120W 20N116W.
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE BY A
WIND MAXIMA ALONG THE E PERIPHERY OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH
DESCRIBED ABOVE...WITH THE RESULTANT PLUME SPREADING NE ACROSS
NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE S-CENTRAL CONUS.

THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...BUT
BELIEVE THIS MAY BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED. A MID LEVEL SWIRL IS
CURRENTLY NOTED NEAR 13N132W AND ANOTHER NEAR 16N128W...BOTH W
OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND UNDER AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. BELIEVE THIS DIFFLUENCE WILL DECREASE AS THE
TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED W OF THE AREA IS SHIFTING W
WITH TIME...AND EXPECT THE THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SW
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC WITH TIME. ALSO THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 26N124W IS MOVING
SLOWLY NE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING...BUT E OF THE TROUGH FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...UNDER WLY SHEAR. SO FOR NOW...WILL FORECAST A
PERSISTENT TROUGH...WHICH WILL AMPLIFY N TO THE S CALIFORNIA
COAST LATE FRI. CONTINUED CONVECTIVE FLARING WILL PROVIDE PLENTY
OF DEBRIS MOISTURE TO STREAM N ALONG THE E PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. IF THE LOW DOES DEVELOP...WOULD EXPECT IT TO MOVE
N ALONG THE E PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED SE OF POINTS
3N105W 20N100W 27N80W...AND CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR THE SMALL AREA ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 88W AND 92W.

AT THE SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL THE OROGRAPHIC GAPS..TEHUANTEPEC...
PAPAGAYO... FONSECA AND PANAMA THROUGH WED...THEN INCREASE TO 30
KT THU WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
NELSON

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