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Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 20:17:30 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 13.7S1 171.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 171.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.0S6 169.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.7S3 167.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.5S2 164.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.4S2 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 171.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY EST-
IMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED
TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. TC 08P IS FORE-
CAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WAR-
NINGS AT 061500Z2 AND 070300Z0.//

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