

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Tue, 01 Feb 2005 08:38:26 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j110cLjJ069213	for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 01 Feb 2005 08:38:22 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0VMJ6D9101742; Mon,
31 Jan 2005 18:33:37 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          497037 for [email-masked]; Mon,
31 Jan 2005 18:33:36 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j110XahY007770
for <[email-masked]>; Mon, 31 Jan 2005 18:33:36 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j110XQJX022407
for          <[email-masked]>; Mon,
31 Jan 2005 18:33:26 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j110XQ9E022406 for [email-masked]; Mon,
31 Jan 2005 18:33:26 -0600 (CST)
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 18:33:26 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 010022

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 13/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/02/01 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 64.9E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/01 12 UTC: 18.1S/64.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/02 00 UTC: 18.5S/63.6E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/02 12 UTC: 19.3S/62.3E, MAX WIND=020KT.
48H: 2005/02/03 00 UTC: 19.8S/60.4E, MAX WIND=020KT.
60H: 2005/02/03 12 UTC: 20.2S/58.9E, MAX WIND=020KT.
72H: 2005/02/04 00 UTC: 21.3S/57.6E, MAX WIND=020KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS SYTEM LOOKS LIKE A MONSOON DEPRESSION, AND DVORAK ANALYSIS IS NOT
AVAILABLE.
WINDS ARE WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, TOTALLY EXPOSED, AND REACH 20/25 KT
FAR FROM THE CENTRE WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS, IN THE NORTH, IN THE MONSOON
FLOW, AND EAST OF 65E.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE LOW SEEMS TO BE FILLING UP,
WHITOUT ANY CLEAR CENTRE, EVEN IF IT IS TOTALLY EXPOSED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. FORECASTS INDICATIONS ARE SO AVALAIBLE FOR THE OVERALL SYSTEM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.