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Date: Tue, 08 Feb 2005 10:17:14 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 081616
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 4N77W  6N83W 5N100W  10N124W
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS
FROM 117W TO 123W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30NM OF
AXIS FROM 89W TO 96W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
LARGE AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N118W TO UPPER
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 24N126W CONTINUES TO 9N127W.  MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF TROUGH AXIS TO 140W.  ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTED BY 90 KT JET CORE FROM BASE OF TROUGH INTO
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO THEN FURTHER E TO TEXAS AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO.  CONVECTION ON MOISTURE PATH ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE DUE TO VORTEX.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER AT
30N132W 1022MB WITH RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 14N100W.  SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N120W TO 9N127W.

E OF 105W...
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGHOUT AREA E OF 105W WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR EXTENDING THOUGH ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN AND NW COLOMBIA SUPPRESSES ANY CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ.

AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO STRONG WIND CONTINUE CROSSING INTO
E PAC FROM SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 36-48 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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