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Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 13:56:28 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 18.5S4 165.7W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 165.7W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 21.1S4 164.2W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 23.9S4 163.3W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 26.4S2 162.8W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 28.9S9 162.3W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 165.3W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
370 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 171730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171241Z6 AMSR-E PASS DEPICT
A STRONG SYSTEM WITH A SLIGHT EQUATORWARD ASYMMETRY. TC 19P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171800Z7 IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.//

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