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Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 10:04:38 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 291604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 5N77W 3N110W 4N130W
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS
E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
84W AND 90W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR LAS VEGAS NEVADA SWWD TO ANOTHER BUT
LESS DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N133W. CIRCULATION CENTER
WAS MOVING E 15 KT. AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED W OF
THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 8N TO 20N W OF 130W. SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS INDICATED A 120 KT JET...LOCATED E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...EXTENDED FROM 18N127W NEWD THROUGH 23N123W CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND EWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN MEXICO AND TEXAS. JET IS
ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS FROM THE ITCZ
NEWD INTO THE MEXICO AND THE S CONUS IN AN EL NINO TYPE PATTERN.

A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED NW OF THE AREA FOLLOWING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W.

E OF 110W
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 7N106W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING
E 10 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE
THE ENTIRE AREA E OF THE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT WAS AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60-90 NM OF
THE ITCZ E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.

QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1046 UTC INDICATED 20 KT WINDS WERE BLOWING
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND A LATER PASS AT 1228 UTC INDICATED
20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A BANKING OF LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE
PASSES LEADING INTO THE E PACIFIC CONFIRMING THE EXISTENCE OF
THESE GAP WINDS.

$$
COBB

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