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Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 00:19:06 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 040617

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 26/12/20042005
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12  (GERARD)

2.A POSITION 2005/02/04 AT 0600 UTC :
24.8S / 57.6E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 /D  1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 150   SO: 100   NO: 100
50 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/04 18 UTC: 26.7S/57.8E, MAX WIND=055KT.
24H: 2005/02/05 06 UTC: 29.0S/58.0E, MAX WIND=045KT.
36H: 2005/02/05 18 UTC: 31.2S/59.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/02/06 06 UTC: 34.5S/62.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM REMAINS SMALL AND CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, BUT SHOULD
RAPIDLY
SUFFER FROM A UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW .
STRONGEST WINDS ARE MAINLY LOCATED IN THE EAST DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURES.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON  HEADING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS IN
THE
DIRECTION OF THE TROUGH PRESENT TO THE SOUTH.=

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