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Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 14:18:52 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 14.2S7 122.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 122.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 14.5S0 123.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 15.0S6 124.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 15.9S5 126.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 122.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS LAND AS IT IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
BUFFER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS BRINGING THE
SYSTEM PERIODS OF UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, ENOUGH POLEWARD DISPLACEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN SUPPORTING
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE CONFIDENCE
IN FORECAST TRACK HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY NOW THAT MOST
OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED ON THE SYSTEM. ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL IN LESS
THAN 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5.//

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