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Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 03:37:21 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 230937
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG AXIS ALONG 2N79W 2N92W
6N106W 8N123W 8N133W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 8N122W TO 8N129W. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ON ITCZ.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM
15N106W TO 10N114W THEN ISOLATED TO 11N123W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO
THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION TONIGHT. TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG
30N138W 23N136W AND MOVING E 20 KT. 140 KT JET DIGGING SE BEHIND
TROUGH WILL KEEP IT MOVING EASTWARD. TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ALONG 135W. SURFACE WINDS TO 25 KT ACCOMPANY FRONT. SINCE
UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL..AIRMASS FOLLOWING FRONT RELATIVELY WEAK.

AN UPPER LOW THAT HAD MOVED INTO EXTREME NW MEXICO LAST NIGHT AS
MOVED SW DURING THE PAST 24 HR TO NEAR 28N115W. LOW IS EMBEDDED
IN A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND IT'S CIRCULATION
FORCED THE LOW BACK OFF THE COAST. SOME EASTWARD MOTION IS NOTED
DURING THE PAST FEW HRS PROBABLY DUE TO THE ADVANCING STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.

OPEN UPPER RIDGE EVIDENT FROM 10N140W TO 20N128W TO 30N126W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE TO
20N114W BACK SW TO 4N130W. THE TROUGH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
UPPER WINDS ACCELERATE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ADVECTING HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION ON THE ITCZ NEWD INTO MEXICO.

E OF 110W...
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE LIES S OF 10N W OF 90W. THE ATMSPHERE IS
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N110W TO NEAR EQUATOR 85W. AN
UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS NW OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. STRONG ANTICYCLONIC TURNING OF THE UPPER WIND IS
RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE E OF 90W WHICH IS SUBDUING
ANY CONVECTION TRYING TO FORM OVER LOWER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
DRY ATMOSPHERE EXTENDS S TO THE EQUATOR AND E OF 90W TO THE
ECUADORIAN COAST.

$$
RRG

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