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Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 04:12:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 171012
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 5N90W 4N100W 4N115W 4N130W 7N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER THE N
PORTION OF THE AREA IS LOCATED N OF ABOUT 15N W OF 125W WITH
MEAN AXIS ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 32N129W AND EXTENDING
ALONG 24N130W SSW TO 15N137W. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
..N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N131W. SPOKES OF VORTICITY CONTINUE
TO ROTATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE AREA
N OF 23N BETWEEN 125W AND 137W CREATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE SMALL POCKETS BROKEN TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY
A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 30N122W ALONG 23N125W TO 17N130W.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SW
WINDS EARLIER OBSERVED WITHIN A JET STREAM TO THE E OF THE
TROUGH HAVE SHIFTED TO OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO
..HOWEVER PLENTIFUL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SW UNITED
STATES. TO THE W OF TROUGH SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
PRESENT BOUT MOVING LITTLE AT THIS DUE TO VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW AND TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY LIMITED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
...EXCEPT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAKENING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 105W...AND
ALSO THE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN ABOUT 500 NM SE
OF JET STREAM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE COSTA
RICAN COAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN MAINLY S OF 14N
BETWEEN 100W-130W...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS REMAINDER OF AREA.

$$
AGUIRRE

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