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Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 04:56:00 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert/131021zfeb2005//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS22 PGTW 131030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/131021ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S0 178.0W6 TO 10.2S3 175.1W4
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
130530Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3
177.4W9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4
178.0W6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3 177.4W9, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. A 130744Z9 SSM/I PASS INDICATES A POSSIBLE
BANDING EYE. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CONSOL-
IDATION AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141030Z9.//

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