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Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 18:13:28 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 220012

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 14/8/20042005
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/22 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 42.0E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.0/5.0 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 150   SE: 150   SO: 150   NO: 150
50 KT       NE: 050   SE: 050   SO: 050   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/22 12 UTC: 21.8S/41.9E, MAX WIND=085KT.
24H: 2005/01/23 00 UTC: 24.0S/42.6E, MAX WIND=085KT.
36H: 2005/01/23 12 UTC: 25.9S/43.9E, MAX WIND=075KT.
48H: 2005/01/24 00 UTC: 27.0S/45.5E, MAX WIND=060KT.
60H: 2005/01/24 12 UTC: 27.9S/47.9E, MAX WIND=050KT.
72H: 2005/01/25 00 UTC: 28.7S/51.2E, MAX WIND=040KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+
ERNEST KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
ERNEST IS A SMALL SYSTEM (ROUGHLY 300 KM OF DIAMETER). THE SYSTEM IS
NOW
ABOUT 250 KM WEST OF MORONDAVA AND ABOUT 300 KM SOUTH OF JUAN DE
NOVA.
ERNEST IS EXPECTED TRACKING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS AND IT
WOULD
PASS BETWEEN EU
ROPA ISLAND AND MALAGASY COAST BETWEEN 1200 UTC AND 1800 UTC.=

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