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Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2005 15:52:58 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 262152
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...4N78W 4N95W 4N120W 7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 100 NM OF 8N109W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS W OF THE AREA HAS FLATTENED
AND EXPANDED FURTHER E TO ALONG 120W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
AND GRIDDED OUTPUT FROM NWP MODELS INDICATE A 130-150 KT JET
CONTINUES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALONG 31N140W 30N131W
TO 27N123W. JET IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EWD TO ALONG
127W N OF 28N. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DRYNESS IS
OBSERVED BY SATELLITE S OF 28N W OF 120W IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 32N122W TO 25N133W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT NORTH OF
27N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY S OF 20N W OF
120W.

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA E OF 120W. THERE
ARE ACTUALLY TWO TROUGHS WITHIN THIS AREA. THE FIRST...A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL W COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SEWD TO THE SEA OF CORTEZ NEAR 27N111W AND IS
SWINGING NEWD AT 20 KT. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N115W TO 21N115W. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 18N115W SSEWD TO A DIFFUSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
6N113W. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THIS CIRCULATION CENTER IS AIDING
IN A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 100 NM OF 9N108W. UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG 18N114W 27N109W
INTO THE SW CONUS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MARKED BY
OVERCAST MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUDS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.

E OF 105W...
EAST OF 105W SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WESTERN FLANK OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS AREA IS
CLOUD FREE WITH MARKED SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS. ONLY BROKEN LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS ARE INDICATED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

AT THE SURFACE...WIND CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN ISTHMUS WITH 20 KNOTS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ALSO
THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
COBB

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