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Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2005 06:33:13 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 261231

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 1/11/20042005
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 11

2.A POSITION 2005/01/26 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5S / 40.5E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/27 00 UTC: 20.8S/40.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/01/27 12 UTC: 21.1S/40.9E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2005/01/28 00 UTC: 21.3S/40.4E, MAX WIND=045KT.
48H: 2005/01/28 12 UTC: 21.0S/39.9E, MAX WIND=055KT.
60H: 2005/01/29 00 UTC: 20.7S/39.5E, MAX WIND=065KT.
72H: 2005/01/29 12 UTC: 20.3S/39.2E, MAX WIND=075KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

SEVERAL CENTRES MAY EXIST. THE MENTIONNED CENTRE IS THE MAIN ONE,
ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED UNDER DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IS GOOD (ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, GOOD LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WITH ESTABLISHED MONSOON AND TRADE WINDS FLOWS, WARM
SST, 28
TO 30AOC, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE), AND
THIS
SYSTEM, WICH GENERATES IMPORTANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, COULD RAPIDLY
DEEPEN IN THIS
AREA.=

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