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Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 12:21:10 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Issued By Meteo-france/tropical Cyclone Centre/la Reunion
21/01/2005
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO20 FMEE 211819
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/01/2005
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY    21/01/2005 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (EX-DAREN) 1001 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0S / 62.8E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES  SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70
NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO NEAR GALE  FORCE 30 KT
AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI
-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/01/22 AT 06 UTC:
17.8S / 60.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/01/22 AT 18 UTC:
18.4S / 58.2E, MAX WIND = 20 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DAREN UNDERGOES A MODERATE  NORTHNORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE CENTER
REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
CONVECTION
. THE SYSTEM IS MEETING DRY ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE TO
REINTENSIFICATION.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND WEAKENING.
NWP
AGREE TO KEEP IT TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS.
STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT
EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=

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