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Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 14:09:19 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__FRAUD_419_LOC 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DAREN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 15.2S8 74.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 74.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 16.8S5 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 17.8S6 67.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 18.7S6 65.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 19.4S4 62.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 73.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DAREN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 990 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191730Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS WITH A 05 KNOT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO REFLECT LOWER DVORAK FINAL-T INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
A WEAKENING TREND. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND 202100Z5.//

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