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Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 08:20:09 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 031200
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 03/1404 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [985hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 167.5W
AT 031200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 0834 UTC SSMI IMAGE. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5
KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SYMMETRICAL CDO. THE AREA OF COLD
TOPS HAS EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY.  MEENA IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF UPPER
[250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL
WIND FLOW AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENT SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON MET ADJUSTED UP BY 0.5: T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC 14.5S 167.2W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 15.0S 166.5W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 16.4S 165.5W MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 18.0S 164.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
031930 UTC.

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