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Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 20:36:15 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 042051ZJAN05//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 10.2S3 173.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S3 173.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 11.6S8 172.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 13.3S7 171.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 14.4S9 169.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.0S6 167.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.6S7 173.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND MICRO-
WAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-
WARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZING POORLY ON THIS SYSTEM
BRINGING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK CONFIDENCE. TC 08P
SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A MOD-
ERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 09 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 042100 ). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 AND 060300Z9.//

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