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Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 21:58:09 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 220357
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 6N105W 7N120W 7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 112W AND 116W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 125W...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING N ALONG 21N137W TO
BEYOND 32N134W. RIDGE EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THAT TROUGH SWEEPS
INTO THE AREA IN 36-42 HOURS AND COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN THE
RIDGE AXIS. S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 15N125W WSWWD TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 9N139W.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...80-90 KT AS NOTED IN CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED DATA...ARE FOUND S OF THE SHEAR AXIS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE 14N125W 13N132W.

BETWEEN 100W AND 125W...
WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 30N112W HAS
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND MAY IN
FACT BE DRIFTING WWD. W OF THIS FEATURE...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
NLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SE TOWARD THE BASE OF AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 18N115W.

FURTHER SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DIFFLUENT FLOW FOCUSED MAINLY
FROM 10N TO 20N E OF 115W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND SOME POSSIBLE AREAS OF WEAK CONVECTION.
IN ADDITION...STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS IN THIS AREA
CONTINUE TO PUMP MID/UPPER LEVEL E PACIFIC MOISTURE NE INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO AND NW GULF OF MEXICO...FEEDING INTO A DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONUS.

E OF 100W...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 95W
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA QUITE DRY WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WAS NOTED ALONG 80W BUT WAS MASKED BY HIGH CIRRUS FANNING
WWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...
20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL SWELL IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT REMAINING IN 6-12 HOURS. 00Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS
FROM DHAF INDICATE THAT WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 20 KT RANGE OVER
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS WIND EVENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BELOW 20 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
COBB

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