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Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 20:50:39 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131021ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 9.4S3 178.0W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 178.0W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 8.8S6 177.8W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 9.5S4 176.1W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 12.0S3 173.0W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 14.8S3 169.7W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 21.2S5 164.0W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 9.3S2 178.0W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
520 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
TC 19P CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
AND HAS REMAINED NEARLY QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING THAT IS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED STRONG RADIAL,UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
RESULTING IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT AN
APPROXIMATELY CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z5 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 141500Z1.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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