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Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 14:39:03 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 24.9S5 160.8W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S5 160.8W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 28.1S1 160.3W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 30.7S0 160.2W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 33.1S7 160.5W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 36.7S6 161.7W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 25.7S4 160.7W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
181730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77, 90 AND 115
KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. A RECENT 181743Z4 SSMI PASS AND ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS BEING WRAPPED IN FROM THE WEST. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO DEVIATE MORE  SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS. TC 19P IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.//

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