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Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 20:04:10 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='DCC_BULK_LOW! 0,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, __DCC_FUZ1 0, __DCC_FUZ2 0, __HAS_MSGID 0,
__LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 120000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 12/0157 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE [997hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 167.3W
AT 120000 UTC  MOVING EASTWARDS AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
GOES10 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 25
TO 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE LLCC IS SLIPPING UNDER THE CDO. SYSTEM ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BANDING TO THE EAST, WRAPPING 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL.
DVORAK ASSESSMENT DT =3.0, MET=PT=2.5 GIVING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. 09F
REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
THE WEST IS WEAKENING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED. OUTFLOW
BECOMING GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS ENHANCED BY CROSS-EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW
TO THE NORTH AND BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WESTERLY STEERING EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS 09F
INTERACTS WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 13.7S 166.9W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 13.9S 167.1W MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 14.3S 167.3W SSW 05 WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 15.1S 167.1W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 09F WILL BE ISSUED AT
120830 UTC.

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