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Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 08:17:03 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A17 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 061200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 06/1414 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 160.6W
AT 061200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9&10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE FURTHER. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 115 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 120 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70
MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE
EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 24 HOURS. EYE STILL WELL
DEFINED IN IR. SOME SLIGHT WARMING OF TOPS PAST 3 HOURS. SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONE LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF JET ENTRANCE REGION. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW
EYE EMBEDDED IN W SURROUND, THUS YIELDS T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS. CYCLONE
STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MEENA IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST UNDER A STRENGTHENING
NORTHWEST STEERING FIELD.  GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT WITH AN ACCELERATION AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 22.4S 158.4W MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 115
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 25.1S 155.2W MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 120
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 27.1S 151.1W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 28.7S 147.4W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC MEENA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 062030 UTC OR EARLIER.

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