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Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2005 10:16:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 111616
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS  5N77W  4N98W  6N10W  8N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 90W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N135W TO 1N140W
CONTROLS FLOW OVER WRN PART OF REGION. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE S OF
18N RESTRICTS ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT ISOLATED CONVECTION
NEAR 6N129W.  DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS E OF RIDGE FROM S TEXAS
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTEND SW TO
10N120W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 5 DEG E OF TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS DRY AIR ALOFT OVER EPAC FURTHER E TO 90W.  BULK OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS N OF 30N AS STRONG 130 KT
JET CORE FEEDS WATER TO AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING
RAIN EPISODE N OF BORDER.  PATTERN TO CHANGE NEXT 24 HRS AS LOW
PRES N OF AREA MOVES INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA AND LOW PRES W OF
AREA DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES 140W.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 30N121W TO 27N130W MOVE
NE OF AREA WITHIN 24 HRS TO CONTINUE PROVIDING WITH LIFTING
ENERGY OVER SW CONUS.  NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURE
OBSERVED IN ANALYSIS EXCEPT LACK OF ACTIVITY IN ITCZ...
UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN AIRMASS DRYNESS.

E OF 90W...
NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO MAINTAINS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS AREA.
TO ITS W ...DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO EPAC W OF 90W EXTENDING DRY AREA ACROSS
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH N NICARAGUA.  ACCELERATING UPPER WIND FLOW
S OF NICARAGUA PROVIDES UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMANIAN WATERS.

SURFACE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED
BELOW GALE FORCE.  STRONG NE WIND OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
HAVE ALSO DECREASED.  BOTH AREAS BECOME UNDER 20 KT WITHIN NEXT
12 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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