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Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 15:49:13 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 132149
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 8N83W
4N89W 6N101W 1N113W 4N128W 2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 5N104W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF
AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 129W.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED WELL NW OF THE AREA IS
IMPARTING A CYCLONIC SW FLOW OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. SWLY WINDS OF 40-60 KT ARE SEEN IN THIS
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 110W IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 10N126W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS N ALONG 21N122W TO BEYOND 32N121W. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS MOVING OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

E OF 110W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS SOUTH
ACROSS SE TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO N OF 20N. WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A SEPARATE BROAD TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WITH AXIS FROM NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SW TO
4N108W. DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA E OF 110W
IS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.

COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG HIGH BUILDING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH GALE WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
BROWN

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