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Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 03:36:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 020936
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N80W 5N93W 8N119W 7N127W 8N140W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N132W TO 7N140W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ALONG 115W IS SPREADING
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INTO BAJA. A TRAILING LINE
OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM LOWER BAJA TO 12N117W. THE LINE IS
MOVING ENE 10 KT. THE SHORTWAVE HAS PHASED IN WITH A LARGER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST
SSE TO 25N120W. A POLAR JET WITH 95 KT SPEED MAX IS DIVING SE
BEHIND THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM
LOWER BAJA TO 23N125W BECOMES STATIONARY BACK TO 28N140W.

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 5N95W AND EXTENDS N OVER MEXICO.
THE RIDGE IS NOT ALLOWING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ITCZ.
THE ONLY ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS W OF 130W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS EXTEND E FROM
110W TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. ONLY LOW AND MID CLOUDS
DEFINE THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA.

$$
RRG

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