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Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 14:27:08 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GERARD) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 28.5S5 58.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5S5 58.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 33.2S8 60.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 38.0S1 64.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 42.2S8 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 29.7S8 59.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GERARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY TRACKING POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSI-
ENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AFTER TAU 12 AND FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8.//

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