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Date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 18:27:38 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
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WTIO30 FMEE 100026

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 4/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/10 AT 0000 UTC :
18.3S / 54.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/10 12 UTC: 18.4S/54.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/11 00 UTC: 18.9S/53.7E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/11 12 UTC: 19.6S/53.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/12 00 UTC: 20.4S/52.8E, MAX WIND=020KT.
60H: 2005/02/12 12 UTC: 21.6S/52.4E, MAX WIND=020KT.
72H: 2005/02/13 00 UTC: 23.1S/52.6E, MAX WIND=020KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5+
POORLY ORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,  LOCATED ALSO
WEST
AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OF MASCARENES
ISLANDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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