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Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 18:18:54 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 220017

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 16/9/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9  (EX-DAREN)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/22 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1S / 61.3E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/2.0 /W  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/22 12 UTC: 17.7S/59.2E, MAX WIND=025KT .
24H: 2005/01/23 00 UTC: 18.7S/57.2E, MAX WIND=020KT .
36H: 2005/01/23 12 UTC: 19.7S/55.8E, MAX WIND=020KT .
48H: 2005/01/24 00 UTC: 21.6S/54.6E, MAX WIND=020KT .
60H: 2005/01/24 12 UTC: 23.9S/54.1E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 AND CI=2.0
DAREN UNDERGOES A MODERATE  NORTHNORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE CENTER
REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM IS MEETING DRY ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE TO
REINTENSIFICATION
BUT RECENT INFRARED INDOEX IMAGERY REVEALS NEW CONVECTION AREA NEAR
THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTH SINCE 2100 UTC.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
NWP AGREE TO KEEP IT TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF MASCAREIGNES
ISLANDS.
STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT
EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=

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