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Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 19:58:17 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 130000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/0151 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY 09F CENTRE [993hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
165.3W AT 130000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF
CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60
MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

NANCY IS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SMALL CDO PERSISTING PAST 12 HOURS.
MAIN BAND TO EAST STRUGGLING TO WRAP AROUND CDO. DIURNAL EFFECTS AND
SHEAR STILL PROMINENT. CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED SLIGHTLY PAST FEW
HOURS. CONVECTION WRAPS ABOUT 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. MET=3.5. PT=3.0. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF
STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE STILL LIES UNDER WEAK STEERING FIELD. CONSENSUS
FORECASTS AN INITIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TURN BEFORE TREKKING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 13.5S 166.0W MOV SW 4KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 14.0S 166.0W MOV SW 3KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 14.5S 166.3W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 15.4S 165.9W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 130800 UTC.

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