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Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 21:56:47 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 060356
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 1N79W 6N94W 5N104W 9N113W
7N121W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM
OF AXIS W OF 122W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA HAS MEAN AXIS N TO S ALONG 140W
WITH A CREST ALONG 32N143W 35N137W 30N130W. ITS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW DOMINATES THIS DISCUSSION AREA N OF 8N W OF 128W WITH UPPER
MOISTURE SPILLING E ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION N OF
22N W OF 116W. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC N OF 10N ALONG
118W IN RESPONSE TO A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NW TO
SE ALONG 32N119W 14N111W. A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
27N108W IS SHIFTING NE WITH TIME AND RAPIDLY LOSING IDENTITY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STILL DOMINATES THE AREA
N OF 8N BETWEEN 118W AND 103W...MODERATE TO STRONG DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM 8N TO 21N BETWEEN
19W AND 110W WITH A 90 NM WIDE BAND ALONG 20N111W TO 30N108W.

AT THE SURFACE... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N117W 30N123W
31N131W...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 32N135W TO 21N111W.

THE UPPER FLOW EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH THE FLOW SPLITTING NEAR 10N108W...
WITH ONE BRANCH TURNING CYCLONICALLY NE CONTINUING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG 10N121W 23N107W.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE...AND OCCASIONALLY ISOLATED STRONG...CONVECTION WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N110W 19N104W. THE BRANCH OF THE
UPPER FLOW/JET THAT CONTINUES NE IS ADVECTING THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION ACROSS MEXICO WITH THE PLUME
SPREADING OUT OVER MUCH THE CENTRAL CONUS.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
ESTIMATED OVER COLOMBIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 22N E OF 94W AND IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...NLY 20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS INCLUDING THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND
FONSECA AND PANAMA AND THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE
BY SUNRISE SUN.

$$
NELSON

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