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Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 03:07:34 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GERARD) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 24.7S3 57.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S3 57.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 27.4S3 57.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 30.8S1 57.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 35.3S1 60.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 39.0S2 65.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 25.4S1 57.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GERARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN IT'S CURRENT INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//

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