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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 20:29:47 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B17  Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS12 NFFN 160000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B17  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 16/0227 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [925HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 172.4W
AT 160000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN
120 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OLAF CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH EYE WARMING AND CONVECTIVE TOPS
COOLING FURTHER. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH AN OW
EYE IN CDG SURROUND YIELDING T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24 HRS. DT=7, PT=6.5 AND
MET=7.0. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. SHEAR
ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE FURTHER ALONG PATH. OLAF IS BEING STEERED
SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SYSTEM STILL
ANTICIPATED TO TURN  EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A
SOUTHEAST TRACK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT
TERM.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 13.4S 170.9W MOV SE 9KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 14.8S 169.7W MOV SE 9KT WITH 125KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC NEAR 16.0S 168.5W MOV SE 9KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC NEAR 17.1S 166.8W MOV SE 9KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
160830 UTC.

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