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Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2005 15:48:05 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 112147
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 5N77W 5N110W 7N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND
132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

..DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N133W-20N130W SITS
BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW W OF AREA NEAR 150W...AND
ANOTHER POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SW UNITED STATES.
DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER AREA...SW-S FLOW IS VERY STRONG WITH A
JET STREAM OF 100-120 KT OVER FAR NW CORNER OF AREA. DOWNSTREAM
OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND S OF THE SW UNITED STATES LOW...A STRONGER
NW JET STREAM OF 130-150 KT EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO JUST OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SW ON THE E SIDE OF THE SW U.S. TROUGH.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
SW OVER THE PACIFIC TO 25N131W. S OF THE FRONT...A WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT 1023 MB HIGH SITS NEAR 23N122W. A BAND OF
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS IS ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF
THE FRONT...HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. W OF
130W...BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
EASTWARD INTO AREA FROM THE LOW WELL W OF AREA. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER AREA...WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL NW WINDS CONTINUING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SHIFTING E INTO PORTIONS OF NW MEXICO. W OF 130W...INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION E OF LARGE LOW
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

S OF 20N W OF 100W...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS TWO HIGHS CONTROL THE
FLOW IN THIS AREA. ONE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 16N126W AND COVERS
AREA S OF 20N W OF 120W...AND THE OTHER HIGH IS NEAR 8N111W.
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED OVER MOST OF AREA. THE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS A WEAK NE-SW MID/UPPER TROUGH WHICH SPLITS THE
HIGHS... EXTENDING FROM 20N106W-5N123W. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE
LIES ALONG THE TROUGH...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ITCZ CONVECTION
NEAR 130W ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY WEAK WESTWARD-MOVING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION MOVING ALONG ITCZ. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING AREA
UNDER PREDOMINANT HIGH ALOFT.

S OF 20N E OF 100W...
NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER SW TO NEAR 5N100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS E OF THE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS W OF TROUGH.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...WITH ONLY CHANGE
BEING A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH THE TROUGH...HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE AREA W OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA TROUGH.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PAPAGAYO...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THESE AREAS
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$
MOLLEDA

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