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Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 22:00:05 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 020359
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...3N78W  7N100W  95N125W  7N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 99W TO
106W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERED AREA N OF 20N WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRYING AIR MASS N OF 21N FROM 120W TO
135W.  BROAD SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE N OF 10N E OF 120W
ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND ITS GULF.  SHORT WAVE NEAR
25N111W CAUSING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG W CENTRAL
MEXICO.  ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR 30N99W ENHANCING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS S TIP OF TEXAS AND ERN MEXICO WITH
DIFFLUENT JET CORE INCREASING SPEEDS FROM 80 KT TO ABOVE 130 KT.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS E PAC S OF 10N
W OF 120W MAINTAINING STRONG WIND AROUND ITS PERIPHERY.

E OF 105W...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERED ENTIRE
AREA E OF 105W.  SUBSIDENCE PREVENTS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG ITCZ.  STRONG WIND CONTINUE ACROSS BOTH GULF OF PANAMA AND
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS.  GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES E OF 95W
IN SW GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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