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Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 14:42:30 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian
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ABIO10 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/232100Z-241800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231952ZJAN2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZJAN2005//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 231800Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.7S3 43.9E6, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA-
SCAR, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PREVIOUS 06
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 232100) FOR FINAL WARNING.
(2) AT 231800Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (TIM) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S7 109.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PREVIOUS
06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 112.0E4
IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA 1.A.(2) FOR
DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S0 79.1E7
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2 79.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 665 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS ORGANIZING CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATE PARA 2.A.(1) FOR FINAL WARNING, ADD
PARA 2.A.(2), AND UPGRADE PARA 2.B.(2) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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