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Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2005 10:20:04 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 101619
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...3N78W 6N100W 14N123W 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 140 NM WIDE FROM 114W TO 117W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W
DEEP LAYER LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH COVERS AREA WITH CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION VORTEX WELL N OF AREA.  UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM
110-115 KT ENTERS AREA AT 32N133W DIPPING SE TO TROUGH BASE AT
9N128W WHILE DECREASING SPEED BELOW 70 KT.  AIR MASS CONFLUENCE
CAUSING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...DRY AIR ALOFT W OF
TROUGH AXIS N OF 10N.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESS CENTER AT 20N121W WITH STRONG TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 28N120W TO 8N128W CAUSING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS.  DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES
ADVECTING NE.  HIGH PRES RIDGE W OF LOW/TROUGH MAINTAINS BRISK
TRADE WINDS W OF AXIS.  VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ
APPARENTLY CAUSED BY MENTIONED SUBSIDENCE.

E OF 115W
MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS AREA AS BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE
REMAIN WELL ANCHORED IN PLACE.  JET CORE OF 70 KT ROUNDING BASE
OF UPSTREAM TROUGH FORECASTED BY GFS MODEL TO INCREASE TO 130 KT
ALONG UPPER BAJA PENINSULA CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
CONSEQUENTLY ENHANCING MORE CONVECTION IN THAT CORNER.
REMAINDER MOISTURE ADVECTED INLAND NW MEXICO FINDING ITS WAY
INTO SW CONUS.

MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR S OF 20N E OF 110W COVER S
HALF OF MEXICO AND GULF...CENTRAL AMERICA AND ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

COLD FRONT ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO FORCING GALE FORCE WIND ACROSS
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO E PAC SHOULD REMAIN NEXT 48 HRS.
MODERATE TO STRONG WIND OVER GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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