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Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 08:09:44 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 15.1S7 169.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 169.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.2S9 166.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.1S9 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.7S5 161.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 17.7S5 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 168.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30, 35 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE SYSTEM HAS LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 060626Z0 QUIKSCAT PASS
DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC SURFACE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
TC 08P WITH WEAKER WINDS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z9 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 AND 071500Z3.//

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