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Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 10:01:39 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 151601
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 6N77W 2N92W 8N197W 3N122W
7N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 95W
AND WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 116W AND W OF 135W.

..DISCUSSION...
A MID-UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE REGION AT 32N135W TO A
BASE NEAR 28N135W. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING
ALONG 32N132W 25N140W.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES HAS MEAN AXIS
ALONG 30N97W 19N98W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE AN UPPER
CYCLONE IS NEAR 30N120W AND IS WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS E. AN
UPPER TROUGH TRAILS SW FROM THE CYCLONE ALONG 21N126W 10N131W TO
A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 5N134W.

UPPER ANTICYCLONES ARE NOTED IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPICAL
BELT. ONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 12N150W WITH A RIDGE E ALONG 15N140W
TO A CREST AT 13N132W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 9N119W WITH A
RIDGE SW TO NEAR 6N127W AND A RIDGE NE TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE AT
11N103W. RESULTANT UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING A CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ.

A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE OBSERVED AT 3N78W MOVING NE. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE OVER W SEMICIRCLE ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 85W.

UPPER LEVEL DRYNESS AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED N OF 24N
BETWEEN 125W AND 112W AND OVER THE TROPICS EXCEPT FOR THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENHANCED AREAS ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
NELSON

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