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Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 08:07:22 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 041200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 04/1404 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [970HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 165.9W
AT 041200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT AROUND 8 KNOTS AND
EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT.

MEENA HAS UNDERGONE INTENSIFICATION IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW AND HAS BECOME GOOD IN
ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN A WHITE
SHADE YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=PT=4.5: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. EXPECT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DECREASE AS MEENA ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN
ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 15.1S 164.6W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 16.4S 163.3W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 17.8S 162.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 19.9S 160.7W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
042030 UTC.

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