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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 02:23:21 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 150600
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 15/0819 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [945hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 159.2W
AT 150600 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
CURVE SOUTH. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 100
KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

EYE NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. SHEAR AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER NANCY.
DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON WHITE SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.0, THUS,
T5.0/5.5/W0.5/12HRS. MET=4.0 AND PAT=4.5. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION
OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST AIDED BY THE
TUTT TO SW. STEERING OVER SYSTEM IS NORTHWEST BUT TURNING NORTHERLY
SOUTH OF 20S AND NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 25S. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON GRADUAL WEAKENING ON A SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY A SOUTHWEST
TRACK AND SLOWING.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 20.1S 158.9W MOV S 12KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 22.4S 158.8W MOV S 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 23.6S 159.0W MOV SSW 9KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 25.2S 159.1W MOV SSW 9KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 151400 UTC.

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