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Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 20:38:05 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B9  Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS12 NFFN 140000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B9  issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0228 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [975HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 178.1W AT
140000 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON 132033 UTC SSMI IMAGE AND GOES9
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE NEAR STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST IN NEXT 24 HOURS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN
90 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING PAST 6 HOURS
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN IRREGULAR EYE IN RECENT EIR IMAGES. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN YIELDS DT=5.0. MET=4.5, FT BASED ON
PT=4.0: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION
OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF A WEAK EAST-WEST TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR IS LOW, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT
TERM. STEERING FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY WEAK. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST AS WESTERLY STEERING INCREASES IN THE BROADER CIRCULATION
AROUND NANCY. SOME MODELS FORECAST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES WITH OLAF WEAKENING AND MERGING WITH NANCY IN 3-4 DAYS.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 9.6S 177.2W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 10.7S 175.4W MOV SE 12KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 12.6S 173.3W MOV SE 14KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 14.4S 171.1W MOV SE 15KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
140830 UTC.

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