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Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 08:27:15 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

ABIO10 PGTW 231430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/231430Z-231800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230752ZJAN2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJAN2005//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 230600Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.7S3 43.9E6, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANA-
RIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PREVIOUS 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 230900) FOR FURTHER DE-
TAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5
112.0E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 110.0E2, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPEC-
TRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 231400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN SURFACE INFLOW AS EVIDENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE
PERSISTENCE IN DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3S9
80.5E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S0 79.1E7, APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION OVER A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CEN-
TER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS AN ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER DIVERGENCE IS FAVORABLE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH-
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO GOOD AND
UPDATED ALL OTHER AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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