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Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 14:55:42 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 30.7S0 161.3W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.7S0 161.3W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 33.6S2 162.1W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 37.0S0 162.6W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 40.3S7 161.7W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 43.5S2 159.3W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 31.4S8 161.5W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560
NM SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 191730Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE REVEALS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, INDICATING THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND BY TAU 48, TC 19P IS EXPECTED SHOULD BECOME A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND 202100Z5.//

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