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Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 00:28:50 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTIO30 FMEE 010627

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 14/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/02/01 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3S / 64.5E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/01 18 UTC: 19.4S/63.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/02 06 UTC: 20.1S/61.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/02 18 UTC: 20.6S/59.6E, MAX WIND=020KT.
48H: 2005/02/03 06 UTC: 20.9S/57.4E, MAX WIND=020KT.
60H: 2005/02/03 18 UTC: 21.6S/55.2E, MAX WIND=020KT.
72H: 2005/02/04 06 UTC: 21.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=020KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS SYTEM LOOKS LIKE A MONSOON DEPRESSION, AND DVORAK ANALYSIS IS
NOT
AVAILABLE.
WINDS ARE WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, MOSTLY EXPOSED, AND ARE STRONGER
FAR
FROM THE CENTRE WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS, IN THE NORTH, IN THE MONSOON
FLOW NEAR 12S, AND EAST OF 65E.
WITH THE DRY AIR INTRUSION, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DO SO. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SYSTEM
IS
CLOSELY MONITORED.
THE WHOLE SYSTEM (LLCC AND CONVECTIVE BANDS) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER SLOWLY, GIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
MASCARENES
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.=

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