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Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 21:42:49 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 090342
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 6N78W 5N100W 6N115W 7N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W-129W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
85W AND 89W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
MOST OF AREA REMAINS UNDER STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SW-W FLOW
WHICH IS BEING PROVIDED BY COMBINATION OF LARGE LOW WELL N OF
AREA NEAR THE UNITED STATES PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT TO ENTER DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
140W. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH 100-120 KT EXTENDS WITHIN 2-3
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22N134W-28N122W-26N114W.  THE
JET STREAM IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SW
UNITED STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE... COMPLEX
PATTERN IS IN PLACE AS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO A LOW NEAR 30N131W 1009 MB...THEN W TO BEYOND
28N140W. ANOTHER RAPIDLY WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW TO 20N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF
LINE FROM 27N133W-29N130W. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING 140W IS
HELPING TO DRAW LARGE AREA OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ITCZ ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND
SURFACE LOW.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 8N123W
TO JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MID/UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NW-N ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 110W-120W...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY MID LEVEL AIR MAINLY S OF 15N
OVER THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
24N120W.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 140W WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E ACROSS N PART OF
AREA...HELPING TO KEEP N PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA UNSETTLED AS
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUE TO
MOVE NE ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG AND NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONT. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY...MAINLY BETWEEN 110W-120W...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
AREA UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
MID/UPPER LEVEL WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NW PART OF AREA BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

E OF 110W...
STRONG SW-W FLOW NOTED W OF 110W EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
MEXICO MAINLY N OF 20N...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OVER MEXICO ARE ONLY IN 60-80 KT RANGE. S OF 20N...FLOW
BECOMES LIGHTER AND OUT OF THE NW-N BEHIND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA TO ABOUT 7N95W. E OF THE
TROUGH...SLIGHTLY STRONG W FLOW TO 40-50 KT EXTENDS S OF PANAMA
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOST OF AREA W OF TROUGH IS
MARKED BY DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WHERE AREAS OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG AND
UPWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. ALONG AND E OF TROUGH...SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...AS WELL AS OVER THE AZUERO PENINSULA OF PANAMA. ITCZ
CONVECTION OFF THE COAST IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH...
MAINLY BETWEEN 85W-89W. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING
LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

$$
MOLLEDA

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