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Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 20:10:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 050000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 05/0203 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [998HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 173.5E AT
050000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9
VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS FROM SECTORS NORTHWEST
THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ORGANISATION INCREASED PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION ALSO INCREASED AND
COOLED WITH  FORMATION OF A CDO. BANDING TO EAST DEVELOPING WITH SOME
CURVATURE. LLCC PLACED UNDER NORTHWEST EDGE OF DEVELOPING CDO.
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES EXPOSED TO WEST, WHICH IS ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY
ORGANISED DEEP CONVECTION. SST AROUND 30C. CONVECTION WRAPS ABOUT 0.4
ON LOG10 YIELDING A DVORAK OF T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. 05F IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF A 250HPA OUTFLOW AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND DECREASING. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE 05F SOUTHWEST WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR TD05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 05F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 050800 UTC.

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