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Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2005 10:25:35 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 101625
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 7N78W 5N95W 6N109W 8N122W 6N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION NEAR 7N79W 5N83W 5N88W AND 7N118W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST APPROACHES 140W BECOMING SOURCE OF
NEW TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO AREA BY STRONG JET CORE OF
OVER 100 KT.  LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 120W
HAS CYCLONIC VORTEX WELL N OF AREA. MAINTAINS A DRY PATCH
BETWEEN RIDGE AND 123W.  ANOTHER STRONG JET BETWEEN TROUGH AND
NARROW RIDGE TO ITS E SUPPLIES ABUNDANT WATER FOR PRECIPITATION
EVENTS N OVER SW CONUS WHERE UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING
CONTINUOUS CONVECTION.  S OF BORDER...MOISTURE LACKS ENOUGH
UPWARD FORCING TO CREATE SUCH EPISODES BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE
DUE TO ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF WATER.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1014 MB LOW PRES AT
28N137W TO 30N132W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND
JUST E OF FRONT N OF 29N.  1020 MB HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS MOST EPAC BASIN.

E OF 110W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND ACROSS S HALF OF MEXICO AND MOST
OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO N HALF OF NICARAGUA MAINTAINS AREA FREE
OF VERTICAL CLOUDS.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT DUE TO HIGH LEVEL CONFLUENCE.  DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER S HALF OF NICARAGUA SE TO COLOMBIA.  ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER ITCZ E OF 90W,

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG NE WIND OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN SPILL OVER
INTO EPAC THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...AND HIGH PRES
OVER GULF OF MEXICO CAUSING GALE FORCE WIND OVER GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.  WIND EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS AS
RIDGE MOVES FURTHER E.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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