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Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 21:54:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 020354
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 6N86W 4N98W 5N110W 5N120W 7N130W 7N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 132W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG 120W PENETRATING INTO S CENTRAL AREA NEAR
3N120W EXPECTED TO MOVE E ALONG 114W IN NEXT 24. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ASSOCIATED W OF 118W. MID/UPPER MOISTURE S OF POLAR
BRANCH SPILLING OVER BAJA/MEXICO E OF 118W. SUBTROPICAL JET WITH
70 KT MAX EXTENDS FROM 19N120W TO SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THEN ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. ANOTHER 100 KT JET MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR BRANCH N OF 27N IS ENTERING THE NW
AREA DIGGING INTO TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL TROUGH NO
LONGER EVIDENT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ EXCEPTED
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 132W.

E OF 110W...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER MEXICO/SW TX FORECAST TO BUILD AND MOVE E
ALONG 92W DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. MID TROUGH NOW OVER SW
CARIB/GULF OF PANAMA INTO EXTREME EPAC NEAR 5N81W. VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES ENTIRE REGION WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. LATEST QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
DEPICTED LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY TRADES UP TO 20 KT SPILLING OVER
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ENTERING EPAC WATERS/GULF OF PAPAGAYO
SPREADING W TO 115W. WIND EVENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 48
HR.

$$
ROBERTS

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