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Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 23:28:51 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian
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__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 240530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/240530Z-241800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231952ZJAN2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZJAN2005//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 231800Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.7S3 43.9E6, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADA-
GASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PREVIOUS
06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 232100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
(2) AT 231800Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (TIM) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S7 109.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PREVI-
OUS 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
112.0E4 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
1.A.(2) FOR DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2
79.0E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0S8 78.5E0, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION, AND A
240104Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WAVE WITH INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEUTRAL DIVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY,
850 MB VORTICITY HAS DECREASED IN BOTH STRENGTH AND AERIAL COVERAGE
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTI-
MATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED PARA 2.B.(2) TO POOR AND
UPDATED ALL OTHER AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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