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Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 20:34:48 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='DCC_BULK_LOW! 0,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, __DCC_FUZ1 0, __DCC_FUZ2 0, __HAS_MSGID 0,
__LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 030000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 03/0211 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F CENTRE [997hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 167.4W
AT 030000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE AREA
BOUNDED BY 12S 169W 14S 165W 16S 165W 16S 167W 14S 167W 14S 169W 12S
169W.

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT ORGANISATION WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF A SMALL CDO. RECENT HIRES QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE
POSSIBLE GALES IN NORTHWEST SECTOR. SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL
WIND FLOW. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED IN SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENT
SHEAR HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON MET=2.5 AND PT=2.5 TO GET T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY
AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 14.7S 166.1W MOV ENE AT 03 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC 15.1S 164.8W MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 15.7S 163.6W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 17.7S 162.4W MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS DEPRESSION WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 030830
UTC.

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