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Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 02:00:10 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 130600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 13/0757 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY 09F CENTRE [990HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
164.6W AT 130600 UTC MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION
FAIR BASED ON 130559 UTC SSMI IMAGE AND GOES9/10 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO
CENTRE, INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH
THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

CDO PERSISTING WITH EXPANDING AREA OF COLD TOPS DURING DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. WEAK NORTHWEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPEARS TO BE LIMITING NANCY'S RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON MET=3.0:
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. NANCY REMAINS SOUTH OF A 250 HPA OUTFLOW IN A
REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL RETURN FLOW AND ALSO GOOD IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE, BUT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. CYCLONE STILL LIES UNDER WEAK
STEERING FIELD. CONSENSUS FORECASTS AN INITIAL SOUTHWARD TURN BEFORE
A GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND FUTURE SOUTHWARD
TRACK.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 13.7S 164.5W MOV S 03KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 14.2S 164.4W MOV SSE 03KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 15.0S 163.9W MOV SSE 08KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 16.5S 162.9W MOV SE 09KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 131400 UTC.

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