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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 18:11:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Vii And Metarea Viii (s)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO22 FMEE 160010
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/02/2005
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 16/02/2005 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 1000 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 53.0E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES  EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS BETWEEN 50 NM AND 350 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN
THE
EASTERN SECTOR.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 110 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS
UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN  QUADRANT AND UP
TO
250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/02/16 AT 12 UTC:
22.4S / 51.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/02/17 AT 00 UTC:
22.5S / 51.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON REGULARLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON
THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THEN SLOW DOWN AS A
TROUGH SHIFTS IN THE SOUTH.
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AT SHORT RANGE.
STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=

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