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Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:54:10 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 212153
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 6N105W 7N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE DEVELOPING WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 91W.

DISCUSSION...
A 900 NM WIDE WESTERLY JETSTREAM IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE TROUGH
15N140W TO 14N120W WHERE THE FLOW SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH
CONTINUING CYCLONICALLY NE TO BEYOND 24N100W. THE SECOND TURNS
ANTICYCLONICALLY SE AND LOSES IDENTITY IS STRONG DRY UPPER AIR.
ADDITIONALLY DRY AIR IS INDICATED S OF THE JET.

N OF THE JET A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVE
TILT WITH TIME...BUT ITS MEAN AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG 32N123W
20N118W. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N125W. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT LIES
ALONG 32N118W 25N119W 19N133W.

THE UPPER LEVELS N OF THE JET AXIS ARE DRY INDICATING MODERATE
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. AN EXCEPTION IS N OF 27N ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS ARE ENHANCED WITH THE DEBRIS
MOISTURE ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN THE UPPER WIND
MAXIMA...WITH AXIS 11N140W 16N120W 27N90W.

A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED NEAR 3N81W AND ANOTHER NEAR
12N88W. PRONOUNCED DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT NOTED SE OF LINE 10N114W
26N81W EXCEPT FOR THE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THIS CONVECTION
IS ADVECTING NE TO OVER WESTERN PANAMA COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA...HOWEVER NO CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

NE WINDS ARE SPREADING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE PAC
FROM 9N TO 12N E OF 92W. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
NELSON

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