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Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2005 12:32:04 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 271830

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/11/20042005
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11  (FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/27 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 42.0E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 060   SE: 070   SO: 050   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/28 06 UTC: 22.1S/42.6E, MAX WIND=040KT.
24H: 2005/01/28 18 UTC: 22.2S/43.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2005/01/29 06 UTC: 21.8S/43.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2005/01/29 18 UTC: 21.0S/42.5E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2005/01/30 06 UTC: 20.0S/41.0E, MAX WIND=040KT.
72H: 2005/01/30 18 UTC: 18.6S/39.2E, MAX WIND=045KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+.
CENTRE HAS DRIFTED UNDER CONVECTION WHICH IS LIGHTLY ORGANIZING AND
INTENSIFYING.
LOCATION OF THE CENTRE HAS BEEN ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO MICRO-WAVE
IMAGERY
AT 1544Z, WICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LLCC.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD APPROACH MALAGASY COASTS, AND THEN TRACK
NORTHWESTWARDS
DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST.=

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