

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Fri, 04 Feb 2005 15:38:48 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j147chlY018507	for
<[email-masked]>; Fri, 04 Feb 2005 15:38:44 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j147Vh7h012766; Fri,
04 Feb 2005 01:37:05 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          95433 for [email-masked]; Fri,
04 Feb 2005 01:37:05 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j147b4JK087618
for <[email-masked]>; Fri, 04 Feb 2005 01:37:04 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j147arn8010635
for          <[email-masked]>; Fri,
04 Feb 2005 01:36:54 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j147arvP010634 for [email-masked]; Fri,
04 Feb 2005 01:36:53 -0600 (CST)
Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 01:36:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 040600
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0734 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [975hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 166.9W
AT 040600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS AND IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, WINDS
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

A WEAK CDO HAS PERSISTED DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH PERIPHERAL
BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST APPEARS TO
BE LIMITING INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS EAST OF AN UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS
EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW AND REMAINS GOOD IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN
QUADRANTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WRAP OF 1.2 YIELDING
DT=MET=PT=4.0: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. EXPECT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
DECREASE AS MEENA ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST DURING 24
TO 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 14.8S 165.7W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 16.0S 164.4W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 17.6S 163.2W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 19.6S 161.8W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
041430 UTC.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.