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Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 15:55:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 292155
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG  5N77W  3N110W  4N130W
4N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS
E OF 80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 84W TO
90W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W
STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WELL N OF AREA SW TO 30N120W...18N131W AND 7N134W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND W OF TROUGH AXIS COVERS ENTIRE AREA
W OF 128W.  STRONG JET CORE OF OVER 110 KT ON E SIDE OF TROUGH
ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO S HALF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO AND INTO S TEXAS.  FAIRLY ZONAL WIND
CONDITIONS ON CREST OF VERY BROAD RIDGE E OF AREA DOES NOT
PROVIDE SOURCES OF UPWARD FORCING OF MOISTURE AT THIS TIME.
RIDGE REMAINS WELL ANCHORED IN POSITION NOT PERMITTING UPPER
TROUGH TO INTRUDE INTO AREA AND DISTURB PRESENT CONDITIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...WITH SO MUCH DRYNESS ACROSS E PAC...ITCZ LACKS
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  MOST OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINS N OF CONVERGENCE ZONE.

E OF 100W
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST AND CONFLUENT WIND COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 100W.  DRYNESS BROKEN BY PATCH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM 3N TO 9N E OF 95W WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ SUPPLIES SOME UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF COSTA RICA-HONDURAS BORDER.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WIND ACROSS CARIBBEAN BASIN SPILL OVER
INTO E PAC THROUGH PANAMA...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO GAPS WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES STRONG WIND ACROSS
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HR
BEFORE ABATING ALL TOGETHER.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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