

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Thu, 17 Feb 2005 10:12:12 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1H2C7Lp089000	for
<[email-masked]>; Thu, 17 Feb 2005 10:12:08 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1GN9OQT029528; Wed,
16 Feb 2005 20:08:38 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          367183 for [email-masked]; Wed,
16 Feb 2005 20:08:38 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1H28bEN094674
for <[email-masked]>; Wed, 16 Feb 2005 20:08:37 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1H28Etf014212
for          <[email-masked]>; Wed,
16 Feb 2005 20:08:14 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j1H28Eku014211 for [email-masked]; Wed,
16 Feb 2005 20:08:14 -0600 (CST)
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 20:08:14 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B21  Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS12 NFFN 170000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B21  issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 17/0205 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [920HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 168.1W
AT 170000 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS,
DECREASING TO 100 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63
KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

OLAF HAS MAINTAINED NEAR CONSTANT INTENSITY FOR PAST 6 HOURS, WITH
SOME SIGNS OF EYE CONTRACTION. EYE TEMP SHADE VARYING BETWEEN MG AND
BLACK, BUT SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN VERY COLD [<-80C].
DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH AN MG EYE IN CMG SURROUND
YIELDING DT=6.5. MET=6.5. PT=6.5, FT BASED ON DT:
T6.5/6.5/W0.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
AND OUTLFOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RELATIVE SHEAR EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW AS OLAF MOVES SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH SOME VARIATIONS
IN SPEED DURING THE 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD AS OLAF INTERACTS WITH THE
REMNANTS OF NANCY.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC NEAR 17.7S 166.7W MOV SE 12KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC NEAR 19.2S 165.3W MOV SE 10KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC NEAR 20.8S 164.0W MOV SE 12KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC NEAR 23.2S 162.2W MOV SE 15KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
170830 UTC.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.