

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Wed, 19 Jan 2005 23:57:08 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0JFv2GI026094	for
<[email-masked]>; Wed, 19 Jan 2005 23:57:03 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0J8IYLc049974; Wed,
19 Jan 2005 09:54:28 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8e)
with spool id 203878 for [email-masked]; Wed,
19 Jan 2005 09:54:27 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0JFs2dH086360
for <[email-masked]>; Wed, 19 Jan 2005 09:54:02 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0JFrvu1029808
for          <[email-masked]>; Wed,
19 Jan 2005 09:53:57 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11/Submit)
id j0JFrvxg029807 for [email-masked]; Wed,
19 Jan 2005 09:53:57 -0600 (CST)
Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 09:53:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 191553
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 1N79W 4N104W 2N110W 5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
101W AND 107W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 96W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 124W.

..DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 150W
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT E ABOUT 10 DEG A DAY. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN N ATLC HAS
MEAN AXIS AROUND 70W WITH ZONAL FLOW N OF 25N BETWEEN 100W AND
45W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE W
HALF OF THE LONGWAVE RESULTING IN A TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE SW CONUS INTO THIS DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N118W THROUGH AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 17N122W AND CONTINUING SW TO
TROUGH 11N129W THEN W TO AN ILL-DEFINED BASE ESTIMATED NEAR
10N150W.

TO THE NW OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 15N163W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO NEAR 10N136W. ANOTHER
UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED NEAR 30N130W AND APPEARS TO BE
MOVING NE WITH TIME. THE UPPER FLOW IS DIVERGENT OVER THE AREA N
OF 21N W OF 135W. ADDITIONALLY UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED...BUT
PRIMARILY IN THE SW FLOW AROUND THE NEAR ANTICYCLONE...AND THE
MOISTURE ENDS UP IN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NW CONUS.

STRONG UPPER DRYNESS/SUBSIDENCE NOTED N OF 10N BETWEEN 132W AND
120W AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF TROUGH AXIS W OF 115W...THEN
NARROWING ALONG THE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. TO THE S OF THE
SUBSIDENCE LINE...A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WIND MAXIMA IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE ALONG 7N140W 10N121W THEN WIDENS ALONG
20N110W TO 26N100W WHERE THE FLOW TURNS ZONAL FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR 65W. ALTHOUGH ONLY A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS
ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 155W...THEIR
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE IN THIS WIND MAXIMA EVENTUALLY
DRYING OVER THE EXTREME E-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

OVER THE SE PORTION...A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR
11N92W AND IS SHIFTING NE WITH TIME. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW
ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO A CREST NEAR 30N108W. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO
EXTENDS E FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW IS WEAK S OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE PAC.
SMALL UPPER CYCLONES APPEAR TO BE FORMING NEAR 6N84W AND 5N105W.
THE UPPER FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR 5N015W AND
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND 86W. OTHERWISE...STRONG UPPER
DRYNESS/SUBSIDENCE NOTED SE OF LINE 1N130W 10N110W 21N100W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N127W 22N144W AND
ALONG 32N127W TO NEAR 20N110W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ALTHOUGH LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS 40 KT
EXPECT A SURGE TO 45 KT THIS MORNING AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
WILL DROP OFF MAX TO 40 KT IN 24 HOURS THEN DROP GALE IN 48
HOURS. EXPECT 30 KT MAX IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA TODAY
..THEN WEAKEN TO 25 KT IN 24 HOURS AND 20 KT IN 48 HOURS.
NW SWELLS FROM TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL MERGE WITH NE SWELLS E OF
93W AND SPREAD S OF EQUATOR. LATEST NNW3 GUIDANCE SPREADS SWELLS
SSW ACROSS EQUATOR OVER THE WATERS TO W OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS...BUT I WILL INCLUDE THAT AREA AS WELL...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE ANY REPORTS TO VERIFY.

$$
NELSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.