

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Tue, 01 Feb 2005 16:12:32 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j118CRjg005973	for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 01 Feb 2005 16:12:29 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j114CD1m037516; Tue,
01 Feb 2005 02:09:29 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          505926 for [email-masked]; Tue,
01 Feb 2005 02:09:29 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1189RUl029612
for <[email-masked]>; Tue, 01 Feb 2005 02:09:27 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1189I4Y000874
for          <[email-masked]>; Tue,
01 Feb 2005 02:09:18 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j1189IT0000873 for [email-masked]; Tue,
01 Feb 2005 02:09:18 -0600 (CST)
Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 02:09:18 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 010600
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0806 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA CENTRE [994hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5S 175.2W
AT 010600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 010034Z SSMI DATA. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8
KNOTS AND SLOWING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60
MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO SOUTHEAST OF EXPOSED LLCC HAS DECREASED IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS. DRY AIR INTRUSION REMAINS EVIDENT ABOUT THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION. SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF
UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. OUTFLOW
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REMAINS GOOD IN OTHER SECTORS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC 0.7 DEGREES FROM DEEP
CONVECTION YIELDS T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST
EXPECTED TO STEER WEAKENING RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF TC LOLA TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON RAPID
WEAKENING WITH CONSENSUS TRACK CURVING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AND
SLOWING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 25.2S 175.4W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 25.5S 176.5W MOV W AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 25.1S 178.5W MOV WNW AT 10 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 24.5S 179.6W MOV NW AT 05 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LOLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
011430 UTC.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.