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Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 11:44:40 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZFEB2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061751ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1
116.9E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8 116.8E6, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION,
AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AT 060949Z8, A QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL
ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY DECOUPLED FROM THE REGION OF
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDER-
NEATH THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21
PGTW 061800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4
58.2E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4S0 56.3E4, APPROXIMATELY 194 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
HOWEVER IT IS BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BOUNDED TO THE WEST BY A REGION OF MODERATE TO
HIGH SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXI-
MUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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