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Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 00:05:58 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5
141.2E8 IS NOW LOCATED OVER LAND NEAR 13.5S9 142.0E7, APPROXI-
MATELY 65 NM SOUTH OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
CAPE YORK. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY RE-
VEALS SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION PULSING OVER A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE ORGAN-
IZED. A SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT WEIPA (94170) AT 210500Z8 RE-
PORTED A SURFACE WIND OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 KNOTS AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESSURE. ENHANCED WESTERLIES IN THE ARAFURA
SEA REGION ARE VISIBLE IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH MAY LEAD
TO INCREASED DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IN-
DICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES-
SURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DESPITE THE FACT THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS IMPROVING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWN-
GRADED TO POOR DUE TO EXPECTATIONS THAT IT WILL REMAIN OVER
LAND FOR THE NEXT DAY.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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