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Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 10:44:52 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 201644
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 4N77W 3N95W 6N115W 6N138W
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM
106W TO 115W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
DEEP LAYER STATIONARY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 26N117W BRINGING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO S BAJA CALIFORNIA A ND NW MEXICO AS
VORTEX FORCES DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER AREA.  JET CORE OF 75K SPLITS
WIDELY ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
S-SW TO 9N120W WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ON E SLOPE RACING NE
INDICATING NEGATIVE TILT WITH PRECIPITATION EVENT LIKELY OVER
NW MEXICO AND SW CONUS...W TEXAS AND S NEW MEXICO.  CONVECTION
STRETCHES WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N11W TO 30N108W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 240 NM OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

E OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 98W AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WITH STRONG
SPEED CONVERGENCE FORCES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 110W
EXCEPT MINOR BUILD UP ALONG ITCZ FROM 83W TO 93W.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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