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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 14:01:46 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A20 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 151800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 15/1958 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [950HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 158.5W
AT 151800 UTC MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE
SOUTHSOUTHWEST. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/10
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85
KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

W-NW SHEAR INCREASING OVER NANCY. OVERALL ORGANISATION DECREASED PAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTION WARMING STEADILY. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON
EMBEDDED CENTRE YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=4.5 AND PT=4.0. FINAL T BASED ON
DT: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24HRS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND DECREASING
ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER
DEEP-LAYER MEAN N/NE FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND A SOUTHWEST TRACK.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 22.4S 158.8W MOV S 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 23.8S 159.8W MOV SSW 9KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 25.0S 161.0W MOV SSW 8KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 26.2S 162.2W MOV SSW 8KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC.

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