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Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 06:36:27 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 191235

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 4/8/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8

2.A POSITION 2005/01/19 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1S / 49.3E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/20 00 UTC: 11.3S/47.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/01/20 12 UTC: 12.6S/46.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/01/21 00 UTC: 14.0S/45.3E, MAX WIND=020KT.
48H: 2005/01/21 12 UTC: 15.2S/44.1E, MAX WIND=020KT.
60H: 2005/01/22 00 UTC: 16.5S/43.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/01/22 12 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
ASSOCIATED WINDS REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. PRESSURE OBS REMAIN RATHER
HIGH
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM.
NWP ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TRACK FORECAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD,
WITHOUT INTENSIFYING, TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL
.=

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