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Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 15:52:30 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 062152
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 1N79W 7N121W 5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OVER THE WEST PORTION HAS MEAN AXIS N TO S
ALONG 135W. A NEGATIVE TILT MID TO UPPER TROUGH HAS MEAN AXIS
FROM 32N115W TO 10N108W. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE THE PATTERN WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
25N140W 22N120W THEN NARROWS TO WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 24N109W
32N101W. MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N127W 16N112W 22N103W THEN NARROWS
TO BEYOND 32N95W. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG 32N113W 24N122W AND IS RAPIDLY LOSING IDENTITY AS A RIDGE
AXIS ALONG 32N134W 27N110W AND BRIDGES FRONT TO 22N111W.

THE UPPER FLOW EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH FLOW SPLITTING NEAR 8N111W. ONE BRANCH
TURNS CYCLONICALLY NE CONTINUING ACROSS THE UPPER CENTRAL CONUS.
THE OTHER BRANCH TURNS SE INTO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 4N101W.
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT FROM 7N122W TO 13N118W WITH
THE ITCZ CONVECTION ENHANCED BETWEEN 120W AND 125W...WITH THE
DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING SE WITH THE S SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
UPPER WIND MAXIMA.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
ESTIMATED OVER COLOMBIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 22N E OF 92W AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...THE GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
WEAKENED...BUT NE 20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH
THIS OROGRAPHIC GAP AND SIMILAR GAPS FURTHER TO THE S...
INCLUDING THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA AND PANAMA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT...BECOMING MOSTLY
DIURNAL SURGES TO 25 KT. SEVERAL MODELS DEPICT THESE SURGES FOR
THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

$$
NELSON

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