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Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 03:30:26 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%, Report='DCC_BULK_LOW! 0,
HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, __DCC_FUZ2 0,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 160930
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 6N78W 8N86W 5N95W
8N122W 7N132W 7N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE BETWEEN 7N
AND 11N FROM 111W TO 116W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 6N136W.

..DISCUSSION...

.W OF 115W...
AN UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE EXTREME W PORTION OF THE AREA
BUILDING NORTHWARD BUT MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS E. AN UPPER TROUGH
WAS STATIONARY FROM N CENTRAL BAJA WSW TO 20N130W. A WEAKER
SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET OVER THE MID PACIFIC WAS CURVING
ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM 27N140W TO 20N130W WITH SPEEDS OF 100 KT.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WAS JUST W OF THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WAS
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH NW OF THE AREA BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO
MOVE S OF 30N OR E OF 140W DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER
LARGE SWELL FROM THE STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. SWELL WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 FT
IN 48 HRS.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE LIES E TO W ALONG 5N WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS
IN THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS
DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE W OF 130W ALONG THE ITCZ.

.E OF 115W...
A WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 8N111W AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS NOTED ON IT'S NW
SIDE.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE LIES N OF 10N KEEPING THE ZONAL WESTERLIES N
OF 20N. SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS KEEPING CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. UPPER WINDS ACCELERATE
ANTICYCLONICALLY E OF 95W WHICH IS AIDING SCATTERED CONVECTION S
OF PANAMA. BETWEEN 10N AND 16N AND S OF 4N WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
SPILLING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHAUNTEPEC PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO STORM FORCE. THESE CONDITIONS AREA FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 24 HR WITH GALES POSSIBLE THROUGH 72 HR.

$$
RRG

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