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Date: Mon, 07 Feb 2005 12:09:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 071808

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 11/13/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2005/02/07 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0S / 53.9E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 050   SE: 090   SO: 090   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/08 06 UTC: 28.1S/53.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2005/02/08 18 UTC: 29.2S/53.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2005/02/09 06 UTC: 31.6S/53.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/02/09 18 UTC: 34.3S/56.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM PATTERN (SHEAR PATTERN ASSOCIATED TO WEAK CONVECTION) AND
ASSOCIATED INTENSITY ACCORDING DVORAK TECHNIQUE DO NOT CORRESPOND TO
ESTIMATED FORCE WINDS (30/35 KT, OR EVEN 40 KT IN THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM
, DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES).
SO THIS WARNING DOES NOT APPLY DVORAK TECHNIQUE.

THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS SLOWING DOWN ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THEN POLEWARDS WITH
THE
NEXT TROUGH BEYOND 36 HOURS.=

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