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Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 19:54:38 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 5.5N0 83.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5N0 83.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 5.7N2 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 5.9N4 83.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 5.8N3 82.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 5.6N1 81.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 5.9N4 80.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR  5.5N0 83.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE, DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 01B IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, ALTERING TO A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
BY THE MID-PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL ADVERSELY
AFFECT INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATE PERIOD. DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN VERY POOR
AGREEMENT, WITH WIDE VARIATION IN THE EXTENT OF THE
CONSOLIDATION AND THE RESULTING STEERING INFLUENCES.
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO EXISTS BASED ON THESE MODELS, WITH AN
EASTWARD TRACK AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM UNTIL THE MID-PERIOD
DEPICTED IN NOGAPS. DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATION IN ALL AVAILABLE
AIDS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST REMAINS MODERATE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 09 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4.//

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