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Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 00:16:51 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 220614

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 15/8/20042005
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/22 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6S / 41.9E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.5/5.5 MOINS /D  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 200   SE: 200   SO: 120   NO: 120
50 KT       NE: 090   SE: 070   SO: 060   NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/22 18 UTC: 22.5S/42.1E, MAX WIND=090KT.
24H: 2005/01/23 06 UTC: 24.5S/42.9E, MAX WIND=085KT.
36H: 2005/01/23 18 UTC: 26.2S/44.5E, MAX WIND=070KT.
48H: 2005/01/24 06 UTC: 28.0S/46.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/01/24 18 UTC: 30.2S/49.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2005/01/25 06 UTC: 33.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5
ERNEST HAS INTENSIFIED DURING LAST HOURS, REACHING PROBABEBLY WAHAT
WILL
REMAIN ITS MAXIMAL INTENSITY, WHITH A WARM SMALL WELL DEFINED EYE.
IT IS A SMALL DISYMETRIC SYSTEM, WHITH STRONG WINDS MAINLY PRESENT IN
THE
EASTERN PART (DUE TO THE MOVMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT
WHITIH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST).
IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
THE
TROUGH.=

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