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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 21:02:10 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Rmks/
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WTPS32 PGTW 160300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- NEAR 12.2S5 172.6W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 172.6W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 13.4S8 169.9W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 15.8S4 167.9W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 18.1S0 166.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 20.9S1 164.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 24.7S3 161.7W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.5S8 171.9W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 AND 155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SUSTAINED RADIAL OUFLOW AND STRONG DEEP CONVECTION. TC 19P HAS TRACKED EASTWARD OF THE FORECASTED TRACK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN TC 19P AND TC 18P.  TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6, 161500Z3, 162100Z0 AND 170300Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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