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Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2005 18:18:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 110016

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 7/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0S / 55.0E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/11 12 UTC: 18.1S/55.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/12 00 UTC: 18.6S/56.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/12 12 UTC: 19.0S/56.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/13 00 UTC: 19.7S/56.9E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2005/02/13 12 UTC: 20.7S/56.9E, MAX WIND=040KT.
72H: 2005/02/14 00 UTC: 21.6S/56.8E, MAX WIND=040KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND POORLY ORGANIZED. LOCATION OF THE
POORLY DEFINED LLCC IS UNCERTAIN. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A POOR ORGANIZATION AND WEAK INTENSITY NORTH
OF
MASCARENES ISLANDS. AFTER THAT, NWP MODELS FORECASTED TRACKS ARE
DIFFERENT, BUT AN INTE
NSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS QUITE LIKELY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.=

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