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Date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 10:27:09 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 091626
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...3N78W  8N113W  11N122W  6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF
5N88W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 120W
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF
AREA WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 33N130W.  MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...DRY AIR...S OF 20N W OF 125W.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRES CENTER AT 15N123W WITH TROUGH TO
22N123W INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH. COLD
FRONT ENTERS AREA FROM 32N131W TO 26N140W.

E OF 120W
JET CORE OF OVER 130 KT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND CENTRAL MEXICO.  DEEP CONVECTION APPROACHING MEXICAN COAST
LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
MOVES NE AND DECREASES ITS INFLUENCE.
AT THE SURFACE...

MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGHOUT AREA E OF 115W WITH
110-120 KT JET STREAM FROM 23N120W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.  JET ADVECTING ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
/DRY AIR S OF 20N E OF 105W.  SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSES CONVECTION
ALONG ITCZ EXCEPT FOR AREA OF SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG ITCZ FROM
87W TO 91W.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING GULF OF MEXICO TO PUSH
AIRMASS ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC CAUSING DEVELOPING GALE ON
PACIFIC SIDE WITHIN NEXT 36-42 HRS.

MODERATE TO STRONG WIND CONTINUE CROSSING INTO E PAC FROM SW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NEXT 36-48 HRS.  MERGING SWELLS WITH TEHUANTEPEC GALE
TO INCREASE SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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