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Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 08:32:53 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 17.8S6 163.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 163.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.7S6 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 19.2S2 159.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 19.3S3 158.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 19.2S2 157.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 163.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
310 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 55 AND 77
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT
SURPRISE ISLAND REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF
998.3 MB. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.//

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