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Date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 04:10:13 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 231009
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N77W 5N90W 4N100W 6N114W 5N125W 6N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

DISCUSSION...
JETSTREAM CONSISTING OF TWO ENERGIZED BRANCHES IS CENTERED ALONG
A LINE FROM 15N140W TO 15N113W WHERE THE FLOW SPLITS. ONE BRANCH
TURNS CYCLONICALLY NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS TO
BEYOND 30N88W. THE SECOND BRANCH TURNS ANTICYCLONICALLY SE AND
BECOMES DIFFUSED ALONG 105W.

N OF THE JET...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL...NEGATIVE TILT...SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MOVING
INLAND NEAR 33N119W. ITS SURFACE REFLECTION IS INDICATED AS
A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N116W TO 25N120W.

IN THE TROPICS...UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7N149W ALONG 7N120W TO 7N115W...
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION NEAR 6N146W AND FROM THE
CONVECTION THAT EARLIER DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 129W.
OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IS INDICATED S OF THE JET MERGING WITH EVEN
DRIER AIR DESCRIBED BELOW.

THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE SUBTROPICS...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 20N...
ARE DRY INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
WITHIN THE JET...A 600 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE HAS AXIS
ALONG 14N140W 14N120W...THEN NARROWS TO 150 NM WIDE TO ACROSS
MEXICO AT 21N105W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 2N135W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND RESULTANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA SE OF THE JETSTREAM
E OF 110W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN ELSEWHERE S OF THE
SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH.

NE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH  NLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KT NEAR
THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE

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