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Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 10:00:47 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 061600
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 3N81W 6N95W 5N110W 9N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 79W TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
A ZONAL UPPER WIND PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE AREA WITH FAIRLY
RAPID CHANGES TAKING PLACE ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG 123W CONTINUES TO SWEEP EWD AT 30-35 KT. FURTHER
W...A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 135W EXTENDS FROM 23N THROUGH 32N WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH N OF THE AREA AND ALONG 140W. THIS TROUGH IS
LENDING LIMITED SUPPORT TO A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
30N133W SWWD TO NEAR 25N140W. THE FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A 90
NM WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
FURTHER S...A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
10N116W COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N AND E OF 130W...AND EXTENDS TO
ALONG 100W. SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED STABLE AIR AROUND THE
ANTICYCLONE WAS NOT ALLOWING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE ITCZ.
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 15N AND 20N ROTATING AROUND RIDGE.
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE AND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG 123W EXTENDS FROM 21N130W ENEWD ALONG 25N120W TO
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. CORE SPEEDS WERE AROUND
100 KT. THIS JETSTREAM WAS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE NEWD INTO NRN MEXICO AND THE CONUS.

E OF 100W...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SWWD
THROUGH 15N98W TO 6N104W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
NOTED ON THE ITCZ E OF 79W AND ALSO BETWEEN 100W AND 103W JUST
SE OF TROUGH AXIS NOTED ABOVE AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENT FLOW.

$$
COBB

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