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Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 02:38:24 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B6  Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS12 NFFN 130600
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B6  issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/0833 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 177.6W AT
130600 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION
FAIR BASED ON 130606 UTC SMMI IMAGE AND GOES9 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN
120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 35
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING PAST 6 HOURS
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO AND SOME SPIRAL BANDING. A BANDING EYE
IS EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. DVORAK REASSESSMENT YIELDS
MET=3.0, PT=2.5: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C. 08F REMAINS IN
A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF A WEAK EAST-WEST TROUGH.
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LOW AND STEERING OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY WEAK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT PREDICTING
AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. SOME MODELS WEAKEN
THE CIRCULATION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
131430 UTC.

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