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Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 14:21:11 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 031800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 03/2019 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [985HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 167.3W
AT 031800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, EXPECT WINDS
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST
THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100
MILES OF CENTRE.

AREAL COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS DIMINSHED AND LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS MEENA HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT IN THE LAST SIX HOURS,
ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF DIURNAL CHANGES. THE SYSTEM SEEMS
TO HAVE MET A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR AS WELL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT MEENA AND THE INCREASED CVA IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN
OR EVEN INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EAST
OF AN UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW AND
REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES DT=3.0, MET=3.0
AND PT=3.5. FINAL T BASED ON PT: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 15.1S 166.4W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 16.3S 165.1W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 17.5S 164.1W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 19.0S 163.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
040230 UTC.

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