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Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 20:53:32 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- NEAR 11.6S8 82.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 82.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 12.4S7 80.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 13.2S6 77.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.5S0 74.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 16.1S8 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0 82.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
172330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANI-
MATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ORGANIZING CONVECTION
OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 11S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 170921Z9JAN05 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 170930) NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z5 AND 190300Z3.//

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