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Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 14:34:27 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 311800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 31/2032 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA CENTRE [990HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7S 176.5W
AT 311800 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 311837Z SSMI DATA. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM
NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTED SINCE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS LOCATED TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LLCC MAKING IT A SHEAR PATTERN. DRY AIR INTRUSION
EVIDEND TO THE SOUTHWEST QUARDRANT WHICH INHIBITS CONVECTION. SYSTEM
LOCATED SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REMAINS GOOD IN OTHER
SECTORS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST EXPECTED TO HELP STEER
LOLA GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON GRADUAL
WEAKENING WHILST TRACKING SOUTH AND SLOWING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 24.5S 175.9W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 26.3S 175.3W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 27.2S 175.0W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC 28.1S 174.7W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LOLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
010230 UTC.

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