

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sun, 30 Jan 2005 20:15:59 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0UCFtsa013366	for
<[email-masked]>; Sun, 30 Jan 2005 20:15:56 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0U8O3ot025922; Sun,
30 Jan 2005 06:07:48 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          463287 for [email-masked]; Sun,
30 Jan 2005 06:07:48 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0UC7lHx088354
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 30 Jan 2005 06:07:47 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0UC7bvU027870
for          <[email-masked]>; Sun,
30 Jan 2005 06:07:37 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j0UC7b2O027869 for [email-masked]; Sun,
30 Jan 2005 06:07:37 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 06:07:37 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 301206

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 14/11/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11  (EX-FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/30 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5S / 49.0E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/31 00 UTC: 22.9S/49.9E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/01/31 12 UTC: 22.2S/51.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/01 00 UTC: 23.3S/51.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
48H: 2005/02/01 12 UTC: 24.5S/51.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2005/02/02 00 UTC: 25.9S/50.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/02/02 12 UTC: 27.6S/50.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW DUE TO THE
HIGH
, IN AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION, WHICH IS
RE-BUILDING
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE.
IT IS FORECASTED TO STAY AT A RATHER WEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN
MADAGASCAR
AND MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS, THEN EVACUATE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH IN A
WESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.=

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.