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Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 15:54:20 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 052154
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 1N79W 6N92W 6N106W 10N114W
7N121W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM
OF AXIS W OF 137W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA HAS MEAN AXIS ALONG 8N140W
26N144W TO 37N143W. ITS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THIS
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 130W WITH UPPER MOISTURE SPILLING
ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS TO NEAR 23N124W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR 26N110W. ALTHOUGH THIS CYCLONE IS LOSING IDENTITY ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS BEING RE-ENFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY DIGGING SSE ALONG 33N124W. THE UPPER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION STILL DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 7N BETWEEN 128W AND
108W. MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N112W 20N115W 13N130W. AT THE SURFACE
THERE IS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 32N135W TO 22N112W.

THE UPPER FLOW EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH THE FLOW SPLITTING NEAR 12N113W...WITH
ONE BRANCH TURNING CYCLONICALLY NE AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WHERE THE UPPER FLOW SPLITS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
LIES ALONG 10N120W 22N107W. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE...AND OCCASIONALLY ISOLATED STRONG...
CONVECTION E OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. CURRENTLY THE CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 7N112W TO 20N108W. THE UPPER FLOW
THAT CONTINUES NE IS ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO WITH THE PLUME SPREADING
OUT OVER MUCH THE CENTRAL CONUS.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
ESTIMATED OVER COLOMBIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 22N E OF 94W AND IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...NLY 20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS INCLUDING THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND
FONSECA AND PANAMA AND THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MOSTLY DIURNAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WAS EXTENDED EARLIER...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BELOW GALE FORCE IN 24 HOURS.

$$
NELSON

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