

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Mon, 14 Feb 2005 10:19:47 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1E2Jgvq087551	for
<[email-masked]>; Mon, 14 Feb 2005 10:19:44 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1C9srDA018986; Sun,
13 Feb 2005 20:13:27 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          302410 for [email-masked]; Sun,
13 Feb 2005 20:13:27 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1E2DPmG064672
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 13 Feb 2005 20:13:26 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1E2D7CX005621
for          <[email-masked]>; Sun,
13 Feb 2005 20:13:08 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j1E2D7xh005619 for [email-masked]; Sun,
13 Feb 2005 20:13:07 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 20:13:07 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A13 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 140000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A13 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0210 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [965hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 164.0W
AT 140000 UTC MOVING SOUTH ABOUT 04 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED
GOES9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO 100 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF
CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT
WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH
THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

NANCY HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS,
RESULTING IN A SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN WITH AN IRREGULAR BUT WARM
EYE. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WHITE SURROUNDING MG
EYE YIELDING DT=6.0. MET=4.5 AND PT=5.0. FT BASED ON PT, BREAKING
CONSTRAINTS: T5.0/5.0/D2.0/12HRS. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ASSISTED BY TWIN OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO NORTH AND SOUTHEAST.
WEAK NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS CYCLONE MOVES PARALLEL TO SHEAR.
NANCY HAS COMMENCED SOUTHWARD  MOVEMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH
SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH OLAF TO THE
NORTHWEST.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 15.2S 163.3W MOV SSE 07KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 16.9S 162.9W MOV S 08KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 18.6S 162.9W MOV S 09KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 20.4S 162.7W MOV S 10KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 140800 UTC.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.