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Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 20:14:40 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='DCC_BULK_LOW! 0,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, __C230066_P2 0, __DCC_FUZ1 0, __DCC_FUZ2 0,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 250000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 25/0212 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [995 hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 178.4W
AT 250000 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY,
LATEST SSMI DATA AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS
IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100
MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO EAST TO
SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

TC PERCY HAD AN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOMENT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT DRIFTS EAST. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LLCC. A WARM SPOT NOW
APPEARS IN THE LATEST EIR IMAGERY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BANDING
FEATURE [WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL] YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. THE
SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER [250 HPA] WEAK TROUGH. TC PERCY REMAINS
EMBEDDED AND STEERED BY DEEP MONSOONAL WESTERLY WINDS. OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. SST AROUND 31 DEGREE CELCIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK. A CONCENSUS FORECAST
BASED ON ECMWF, NOGAPS AND UK MAINTAINS THE EASTWARD TRACK BEFORE
CURVING IT SOUTHEAST BY 261200 UTC.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 9.4S 176.9W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 8.8S 174.3W MOV ENE AT 15 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 8.7S 171.6W MOV E AT 15 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 9.5S 170.2W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY will
be issued at 250800 UTC.

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