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Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 02:45:22 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 21.2S5 162.9W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 162.9W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 24.0S6 161.3W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 26.4S2 161.0W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 28.5S5 161.1W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 30.5S8 161.4W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 162.5W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175
NM WEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
180530Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A DECREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE IS WARM-
ING, AND BECOMING RAGGED AND CLOUD-FILLED. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE
TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE TRACK WILL TURN SOUTHWARD
AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH
BUILDS WESTWARD AND BEGINS TO PROVIDE THE DOMINANT STEERING
FLOW. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR
AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND
190900Z9.//

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