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Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 23:25:01 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__FRAUD_419_LOC 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

ABIO10 PGTW 180500
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/180500Z-181800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180152ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 180000Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S WAS LOCATED NEAR
11.6S8 82.8E8, APPROXIMATELY 655 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0
84.0E2, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
56.1E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S7 54.7E6, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.7S2 102.3E6, APPROX-
IMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED EN-
HANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE DIF-
FLUENCE, AND A STEADY RATE OF 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFI-
CANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING, ADDED
PARA 2.B.(3), AND UPDATED ALL OTHER AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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