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Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 09:24:16 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 041524
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE 4N78W 4N105W
11N115W 7N130W 7N140W.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS.

OTHER CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN
THE AREA 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 117N109.7W TO
12.4N112.4W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
A RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA EXTENDS EAST TO 135W NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THIS
AREA.  OTHERWISE THE DOMINATING FEATURE IS A MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N118W WITH ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 135W TO 105W.  THE
AREA IS DRY ALOFT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IMPLIED
WITHIN THE AREA.  JET STREAM EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 23N140W
16N125W 20N114W THEN NORTHEAST BEYOND 26.5N109W OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO.  SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES WIND OF 100 TO 120 KT
FOUND WITHIN THIS JET. SURGING NE BRANCH OF JET INTO MEXICO IS
HELPING TO ADVECT SUBSTANTIAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THAT AREA OF MEXICO.  CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED IN THE AREA
MENTIONED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A BROAD RIDGE.

E OF 105W...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES AREA AND CONTINUES TO STIFLE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA OF THE E PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WINDS...20 TO 25 KT....CONTINUE TO BLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS INCLUDING THE GULFS OF
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
SIMILARLY...A MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE IN 36 HOURS...AND CONTINUE
TO BLOW AT NEAR 25 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
LL

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