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Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 12:10:20 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZFEB2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050751ZFEB2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051751ZFEB2005//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 050600Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GERARD) WAS LOCATED NEAR
33.8S4 62.4E2, APPROXIMATELY 835 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTXS31 PGTW 050900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S8
116.5E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 116.9E7, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION,
AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 051014Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS
A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED WINDS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 051800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S1
58.4E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4 58.2E5, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION OVER A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER,
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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