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Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 19:48:02 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTPS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 15.3S9 138.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 138.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.1S8 138.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.1S9 138.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 17.9S7 138.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.5S4 139.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 138.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (HARVEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL
FIXING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, AND A
062039Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TC 16P IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
INTO AUSTRALIA. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24
DUE TO DISRUPTED INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z3 AND 080300Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  15P (MEENA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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