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Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 20:08:21 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- NEAR 15.4S0 168.2W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 168.2W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 17.3S1 166.6W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 19.4S4 165.2W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 21.7S0 163.7W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 23.9S4 162.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 28.1S1 160.7W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 167.8W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127, 140 AND
155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES TC 19P REMAINS RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH
A WELL DEFINED EYE. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE
CENTERED TO THE EAST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8
IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.//

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