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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 06:17:00 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
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WTIO30 FMEE 151215

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 20/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/15 AT 1200 UTC :
22.3S / 53.7E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/16 00 UTC: 22.9S/52.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/02/16 12 UTC: 23.3S/51.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/17 00 UTC: 23.5S/50.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/17 12 UTC: 23.6S/49.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/18 00 UTC: 23.4S/49.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/18 12 UTC: 23.0S/48.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CENTRE REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THIS CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SLOW DOWN AS
THE
TROUGH SHIFTS IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO THIS SCENARIO AT SHORT RANGE AND
DISAGREE
AFTERWARDS, AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILD IN THE
SOUTHWEST.=

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