

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Tue, 08 Feb 2005 06:12:03 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j17MBweX006069	for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 08 Feb 2005 06:11:59 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j17Lhegl016612; Mon,
07 Feb 2005 16:07:45 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          177375 for [email-masked]; Mon,
07 Feb 2005 16:07:45 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j17M7i3r102480
for <[email-masked]>; Mon, 07 Feb 2005 16:07:44 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j17M7aLH002790
for          <[email-masked]>; Mon,
07 Feb 2005 16:07:36 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j17M7aGW002789 for [email-masked]; Mon,
07 Feb 2005 16:07:36 -0600 (CST)
Date: Mon, 07 Feb 2005 16:07:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 072207
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 2N78W 2N86W 4N93W 3N99W
8N126W 8N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS
BETWEEN 116W AND 123W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1S143W WITH ITS RIDGE
EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 13N150W. THE UPPER FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC
OVER THE REGION S OF 10N W OF 130W...AND CONTINUES ESE BACK
ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 100W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 20N130W CONTINUES TO MOVE SE TOWARDS INTO
A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE-TILT MID-UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS
MEAN AXIS ALONG 32N112W TO 13N103W. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME IS
SHIFTING THROUGH THE TROUGH...GENERALLY TO THE E OF 128W.
MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED N OF 13N W OF
128W. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES ID CENTERED AT 31N133W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 20N115W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT FROM 7N127W TO 17N112W...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
ESTIMATED NEAR 8N88W WITH A RIDGE AXIS NE TO NEAR 23N75W AND IS
COLLAPSING SE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E. MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED SE OF POINTS 5N110W 24N99W 32N80W...
AND CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL THE OROGRAPHIC GAPS..TEHUANTEPEC...
PAPAGAYO... FONSECA AND PANAMA THROUGH WED...THEN INCREASE TO 30
KT THU WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
NELSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.