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Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 22:26:19 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 300426
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG  4N77W  6N85W  4N94W
6N107W  5N117W  7N130W  6N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 90W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W
STRONG UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WELL N OF AREA SW TO 30N115W...20N129W AND 4N131W.  HEFTY
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER N BAJA CALIFORNIA FINALLY
MAKING DENT IN WELL ANCHORED RIDGE E OF 105W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALONG AND W OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS COVERS ENTIRE AREA W OF
128W.  STRONG JET CORE OF 110-115 KT ON E SIDE OF TROUGH
ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO S HALF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO AND INTO S CENTRAL TEXAS.  FAIRLY ZONAL
WIND CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM OF CREST OF BROAD RIDGE E OF AREA
DOES NOT PROVIDE SOURCES OF UPWARD FORCING OF MOISTURE AT THIS
TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...WITH SO MUCH DRYNESS ACROSS E PAC...ITCZ LACKS
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  MOST OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINS N OF CONVERGENCE ZONE.

E OF 105W
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST AND CONFLUENT WIND COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 100W.  DRYNESS BROKEN BY PATCH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM 3N TO 9N E OF 95W WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ SUPPLIES SOME UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF COSTA RICA-HONDURAS BORDER.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WIND ACROSS CARIBBEAN BASIN SPILL OVER
INTO E PAC THROUGH PANAMA...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO GAPS WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES STRONG WIND ACROSS
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HR
BEFORE ABATING ALL TOGETHER.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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