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Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 18:18:50 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Issued By Meteo-france/tropical Cyclone Centre/la Reunion
22/01/2005
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO20 FMEE 220017
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/01/2005
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY  22/01/2005 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 (EX-DAREN) 1001 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1S / 61.3E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70
NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO NEAR GALE  FORCE 30 KT
AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI
-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/01/22 AT 12 UTC:
17.7S / 59.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/01/23 AT 00 UTC:
18.7S / 57.2E, MAX WIND = 20 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DAREN UNDERGOES A MODERATE  NORTHNORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE CENTER
REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM IS MEETING DRY ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE TO
REINTENSIFICATION
BUT RECENT INFRARED INDOEX IMAGERY REVEALS NEW CONVECTION AREA NEAR
THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTH SINCE 2100 UTC.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
NWP AGREE TO KEEP IT TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF MASCAREIGNES
ISLANDS.
STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT
EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=

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