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Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 15:28:27 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 142128
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 5N95W 7N105W
4N115W 8140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 106W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 84W TO 89W.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED W OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING
MULTI LAYERED COLDS AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF 135W.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF 25N ALONG 120W MOVING EAST 35 KNOTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 110W IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A  MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 10N124W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE
FROM ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND THE SW UNITED STATES.

E OF 110W...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SE U.S. EXTENDS S
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER NICARAGUA WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH
AXIS FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA SW TO 8N105W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A COUPLE OF AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...DRY AIR FROM
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 110W.

COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING S BEHIND THE FRONT IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WIND OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

$$
LL

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