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Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 15:57:17 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 222157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N77W 7N85W 3N101W 8N107W 5N129W 8N132W
6N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS W OF 130W.

DISCUSSION...
A 1300 NM WIDE WESTERLY JETSTREAM IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE
TROUGH 15N140W TO 17N115W WHERE THE FLOW SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH
CONTINUING CYCLONICALLY NE TO BEYOND 30N99W. THE SECOND BRANCH
TURNS ANTICYCLONICALLY SE AND LOSES IDENTITY ALONG 104W WHERE
CLOUD TRACERS DISSIPATE IN STRONG DRY UPPER AIR.

N OF THE JET A MID TO UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
34N122W AND IS NOW MOVING E WITH TIME. AT THE SURFACE THE LOW IS
ANALYZED AT 1008 MB WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT LYING ALONG
32N116W TO 25N120W.

IN THE TROPICS...UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7N142W TON 9N129W...ORIGINATING FROM
ITCZ CONVECTION NEAR 7N147W AND FROM THE CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IS
INDICATED S OF THE JET.

IN THE SUBTROPICS...THE UPPER LEVELS N OF THE JET...ROUGHLY N OF
20N...ARE DRY INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WITHIN THE JET...A 600 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER
MOISTURE HAS AXIS ALONG 14N140W 16N120W...THEN NARROWS TO 180 NM
WIDE TO OVER THE MEXICAN COAST AT 22N106W...THEN THE PLUME
WIDENS AGAIN COVERING MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 9N98W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 8N61W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALONG POINTS 1N88W 13N74W 15N63W. BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 3N86W TO TO
11N78W AND IS SHIFTING E AND LOSING IDENTITY WITH TIME.
RESULTANT
STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED SE OF LINE 10N111W 22N82W.

NE WINDS ARE SPREADING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE PAC
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 12N87W 8N93W. NLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY
INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT USUALLY
DECREASE BEFORE SEAS CAN BUILD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
NELSON

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