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Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 22:14:30 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 010414
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...3N77W  6N105W  6N120W  8N130W
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 126W TO 137W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 95W...
DEEP LAYER POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM SW
CONUS THROUGH 30N108W TO 16N140W.  UPPER LEVEL JET CORE NOW
DECREASING TO 100 KT ADVECTS ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS E PAC BASIN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND GULF COASTAL
STATES.  SOME WATER FINALLY AVAILABLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ FROM 120W TO 130W.  MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE N OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 135W.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE WITH HIGH PRES CENTER AT 31N132W
PRODUCING STRONG WIND AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WHICH INCLUDES MOST
FORECAST WATERS N OF 7N W OF 115W.

E OF 95W...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERED VIRTUALLY
ENTIRE AREA E OF 95W ALL THE WAY THROUGH CARIBBEAN AND NW COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...CONTINUED PASSAGE OF WINDS ACROSS GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL EXTEND TO GULF OF PANAMA NEXT 24-48 HRS AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER SW N ATLC.  FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS WRN GULF OF
MEXICO LIKELY TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WIND OVER GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN NEXT 72 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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