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Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 14:23:38 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311721ZDEC2004//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z3 --- NEAR 15.6S2 120.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 120.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 15.9S5 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 16.2S9 120.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 16.6S3 119.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.9S6 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 120.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
311730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. A RECENT 311132Z1
COLOR ENHANCED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. THIS IMAGE ALSO REVEALED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
CONVERGING TOWARDS THE CENTER. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED IN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE
INITIALIZED ON THIS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE CONFIDENCE OF
THE TRACK. TC 07S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3
IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
311721Z DEC 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 311730 ) NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4.//

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