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Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 08:10:16 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 131430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/131430Z-131800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACTMETOCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N6 89.5E2
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8 84.7N9, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCUL-
ATION CENTER (LLCC). SPIRAL BANDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHERN SECTION
POINTING TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM.
ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0S6 123.5E1,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. 850 MB
VORTICITY TRENDS SHOW INCREASING STRENGTH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8S4 86.9E3,
APPROXIMATELY 860 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
INCREASING ORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. 850 MB VORTICITY TRENDS
SHOW INCREASING STRENGTH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 1.B.(1) TO GOOD, ADD PARA
2.B.(1) AS FAIR AND ADD PARA 2.B.(2) AS POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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