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Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 03:37:36 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 200937
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N78W 6N89W 5N94W 10N123W 5N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 89W TO 95W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 120W...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS FOUND FROM 15N TO 25N ACROSS THIS AREA OF THE E PACIFIC. JUST
N OF THE AREA...RATHER VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 33N132W AND MOVING ESE AS IT TRIES TO DIG A
BIT FURTHER SE. VORTEX IS HELPING TO INDUCE 70-90 KT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL JET WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 29N130W TO
32N143W.

AT THE SURFACE...1000 MB GALE FORCE LOW CENTER LIES N OF THE
AREA WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC
WATERS ALONG 30N130W TO 23N140W. BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS DENOTES
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR AND THE ONSET OF 25 KT NLY
WINDS NW OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH SUN BEFORE
WEAKENING AS ITS NORTHERN PORTION REACHES THE UPPER BAJA
PENINSULA ON MON.

FROM 120W TO 100W...
BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC NEAR
8N113W TO NEAR 20N100W INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. UPSTREAM OF
THE RIDGE AXIS...ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS ALONG A
60-80 KT SUBTROPICAL JET CROSSING THIS AREA.

E OF 100W...
IMPRESSIVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FOUND EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE NEAR 11N95W. SE OF THE LOW CENTER...WEAK TO
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN A SMALL AREA OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA FROM 4N TO 9N
BETWEEN 87W TO 92W. ASIDE FROM THIS EQUATORIAL E PACIFIC
MOISTURE ISLAND...THE REMAINDER OF THIS AREA IS QUITE DRY IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...SHIP REPORTS OVER LAST 12 HOUR SUPPORT 25 KT
EVENT IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT IN THE
AREA FROM 8N TO 12N E OF 90W. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
..WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS W CARIBBEAN PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER IN THE
TROPICAL E PACIFIC.

$$
HOLWEG

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