

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Mon, 07 Feb 2005 10:19:35 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j172JUTm094894	for
<[email-masked]>; Mon, 07 Feb 2005 10:19:31 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j170bA8b007854; Sun,
06 Feb 2005 20:14:50 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          161371 for [email-masked]; Sun,
06 Feb 2005 20:14:49 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j172EnU4078480
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 06 Feb 2005 20:14:49 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j172Ed2B026730
for          <[email-masked]>; Sun,
06 Feb 2005 20:14:39 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j172Ed2t026729 for [email-masked]; Sun,
06 Feb 2005 20:14:39 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 20:14:39 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 116.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 116.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.9S6 116.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.2S0 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 17.0S8 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 17.0S8 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 116.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS SUSTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 062218Z9 SSMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A PAR-
TIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS, TC 17S WILL RESIDE IN A VERY WEEK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING SUBTRO-
PICAL RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF TC 17S WILL RISE SLOWLY AS NO DECENT
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 061751Z FEB 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 061800) NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.