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Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 08:15:01 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 131200
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/1408 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY 09F CENTRE [987hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
164.6W AT 130600 UTC MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION
FAIR BASED ON 130559 UTC SSMI IMAGE AND GOES9/10 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO
CENTRE, INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH
THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

CDO PERSISTING WITH EXPANDING AREA OF COLD TOPS DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WEAK NORTHWEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST APPEARS TO BE LIMITING NANCY'S RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON MET=3.0:  T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. NANCY
REMAINS SOUTH OF A 250 HPA OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL
RETURN FLOW AND ALSO GOOD IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT RESTRICTED TO
THE WEST. CYCLONE STILL LIES UNDER WEAK STEERING FIELD. CONSENSUS
FORECASTS AN INITIAL SOUTHWARD TURN BEFORE A GRADUAL ACCELERATION
TOWARD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 13.8S 164.4W MOV S 03KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 14.4S 164.2W MOV SSE 03KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 15.6S 163.4W MOV SSE 04KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 16.5S 162.9W MOV SE 06KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 132000 UTC.

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