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Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 08:12:27 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 12.5S8 172.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 172.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 14.0S5 171.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.2S8 169.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.2S9 166.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.2S0 164.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 172.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AND BECOME DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS LEAVING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH-
WEST. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF
FIJI. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 AND 061500Z2.//

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