

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sun, 13 Feb 2005 22:11:42 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1DEBbpw001591	for
<[email-masked]>; Sun, 13 Feb 2005 22:11:38 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1D6jY0d096974; Sun,
13 Feb 2005 08:05:04 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          291195 for [email-masked]; Sun,
13 Feb 2005 08:05:03 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1DE52As050064
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 13 Feb 2005 08:05:02 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j1DE4qvJ025974
for          <[email-masked]>; Sun,
13 Feb 2005 08:04:52 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j1DE4qZV025973 for [email-masked]; Sun,
13 Feb 2005 08:04:52 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 08:04:52 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B7  Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS12 NFFN 131200
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B7  issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/1400 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 177.5W AT
131200 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW-MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 35
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING PAST 6 HOURS.
CDO DEVELOPING FURTHER AND INCREASING. CONVECTIVE TOPS CONTINUE TO
COOL. SPIRAL BANDING TRYING TO WRAP AROUND CDO. A BANDING EYE IS
EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. DVORAK ASSESSMENT YIELDS MET=3.0,
PT=2.5: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C. 08F REMAINS IN A REGION
OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF A WEAK EAST-WEST TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR IS LOW AND STEERING OVER THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY WEAK.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT PREDICTING AN ACCELERATION
TOWARDS THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
132030 UTC.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.