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Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 09:25:00 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 121524
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG LINE 6N78W 4N100W
6N120W 7N130W 10N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7.5N TO 12N W OF 132W.

..DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 20N130W TO
BEYOND 32N132W SITS BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW W OF
AREA NEAR 150W...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INLAND OVER
WESTERN U.S. NEAR SE COLORADO. DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER
AREA...SW FLOW IS VERY STRONG WITH A JET STREAM OF 100-115 KT
OVER FAR NW CORNER OF AREA. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND SW
OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOW...A STRONGER NW JET STREAM OF
130-150 KT EXTENDS FROM 34N124W TO OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO.  OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...STRONG W-NW
FLOW IS MAINLY N OF 25N...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS S OF 25N. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME W TEXAS ACROSS NW MEXICO
AND THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND BAJA PENINSULA ALONG 27N110W 24N115W
22N123W.  THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AND IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA IS W OF 130W
WHERE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD BY
STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR 150W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUDINESS N OF 20N W OF 135W. THIS
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE EAST WILL
THE UPPER LOW WEST OF THE AREA MOVES NORTHWARD.  THE RIDGE WILL
THEN SLIDE EAST AND REMAIN THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE AREA.

S OF 20N W OF 100W...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS A LARGE HIGH
CONTROLS THE FLOW OVER MOST OF THIS AREA. THE RIDGE MENTIONED
IN SECTION ABOVE IS ANCHORED BY A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N130W.
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED OVER MOST OF AREA. THE HIGH IS
PRODUCE AN AREA OF DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE ITCZ W OF 130W. THIS
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION.

S OF 20N E OF 100W...
NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR SW TO NEAR 1N97W. SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH FROM THE ITCZ
NORTH TO COSTA RICA AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS W OF TROUGH. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...WITH ONLY CHANGE BEING
A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER SE
MEXICO WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...AN INCREASE IN
NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BECOMING GALE FORCE
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  MORNING QUIKSCAT DATA CONTINUED TO DETECTED
NE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.

$$
BROWN

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