

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Mon, 17 Jan 2005 00:08:20 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0GG8Go0044760	for
<[email-masked]>; Mon, 17 Jan 2005 00:08:17 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0GFT1tE038342; Sun,
16 Jan 2005 10:05:20 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8e)
with spool id 145106 for [email-masked]; Sun,
16 Jan 2005 10:05:20 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0GG5JDs032932
for <[email-masked]>; Sun, 16 Jan 2005 10:05:19 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0GG5DMC002947
for          <[email-masked]>; Sun,
16 Jan 2005 10:05:14 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11/Submit)
id j0GG5DbJ002946 for [email-masked]; Sun,
16 Jan 2005 10:05:13 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 10:05:13 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 161604
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 6N77W 2B90W 9N118W 4N131W
6N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 92W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W AND 118W.

..DISCUSSION...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH MEAN
AXIS ALONG 170W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR
16N152W...MID LEVEL NEAR 20N146W...WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING NE TO WELL BEYOND 33N143W. UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATES THIS DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 15N W OF 130W...WITH UPPER
MOISTURE SPILLING ACROSS RIDGE INTO REGION N OF 22N135W ATTM. AN
EMBEDDED SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 24N135W...AND APPEARS
STATIONARY PAST FEW HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A 1026 MB HIGH PRES IS
CENTERED AT 31N128W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 23N144W.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES HAS MEAN AXIS
N OF 22N ALONG 95W...AND IS SHIFTING E WITH TIME. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO REGION ALONG 28N106W 27N120W WITH THE
TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO A BASE NEAR 12N127W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS JUST N OF THE TROUGH AT 29N120W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING N ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. STRONG UPPER
DRYNESS/SUBSIDENCE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 27N121W 30N109W
32N82W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 8N140W WITH A RIDGE SE TO
A SHARP CREST AT 5N130W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG ITCZ BETWEEN 133W-156W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 5N111W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER
ITS W SEMICIRCLE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 111W-118W.

A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 15N107W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING E ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN CRESTING
JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE UPPER FLOW S OF THIS RIDGE
DIVERGES OVER THE ITCZ E OF 92W AND IS ENHANCING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ATTM.

UPPER LEVEL DRYNESS AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ELSEWHERE
IN THE TROPICS FROM 80W TO WELL BEYOND 160W.

$$
NELSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.