

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sun, 06 Feb 2005 02:59:26 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j15IxL3U064395	for
<[email-masked]>; Sun, 06 Feb 2005 02:59:23 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j15FfpYY069044; Sat,
05 Feb 2005 12:53:53 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          125973 for [email-masked]; Sat,
05 Feb 2005 12:53:53 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j15IrqJt023688
for <[email-masked]>; Sat, 05 Feb 2005 12:53:52 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j15IrhaK002654
for          <[email-masked]>; Sat,
05 Feb 2005 12:53:43 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j15IrhGx002653 for [email-masked]; Sat,
05 Feb 2005 12:53:43 -0600 (CST)
Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 12:53:43 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 051821z Feb 05//
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS22 PGTW 051830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051821Z FEB 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3S6 139.3E6 TO 17.9S7 140.6E1 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051430Z3 INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6S0 140.0E5. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2
139.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S0 140.0E5, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 050833Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONG NORTHER-
LY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SUR-
FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES-
SURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOP-
MENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061830Z8.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.