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Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 22:07:55 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

ABIO10 PGTW 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/080400Z-081800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
3.7N0 84.7E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N0 84.5N7, APPROXIMATELY
340 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO PERSIST OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
SPIRAL BANDS ARE BECOMING EVIDENT POINTING TO INCREASED
ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS OF THE
UPPER LEVELS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR AND ADEQUATE OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. HOWEVER,
MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS STILL EXISTS JUST WEST OF THE
FEATURE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0 101.1E3,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 100.5E6, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND
PERSISTED OVER A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE FEATURE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS, BOUNDED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR
CONDITIONS. THE APPROACH OF A TROF FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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