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Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 08:03:23 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A15 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='DCC_BULK_LOW! 0,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, __DCC_FUZ1 0, __DCC_FUZ2 0, __HAS_MSGID 0,
__LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 141200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 14/1358 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [935HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 162.1W
AT 141200 UTC MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
CURVE SOUTH. POSITION GOOD BASED GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE,
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 110 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

NANCY HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS,
RESULTING IN A SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN. THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD
FILLED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, POSSIBLY DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH CMG
SURROUNDING BLACK EYE YIELDING DT=6.0. MET=6.0 AND PAT=6.0. FT BASED
ON DT AND PAT: T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF
STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTORS, ASSISTED BY AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS
LIKELY THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARPENING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE FURTHER, CAUSING NANCY TO BEGIN
A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RECENT MOVEMENT HAS BEEN
TOWARDS THE EAST SOUTHEAST BUT A SOUTHWARD TURN IS FORECAST DUE TO A
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH
SOME TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH OLAF TO THE
NORTHWEST.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 15.9S 160.4W MOV SSE 12KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 18.1S 160.0W MOV S 12KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 20.6S 160.2W MOV S 12KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 22.0S 160.7W MOV SSW 08KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 142000 UTC.

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