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Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 16:16:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 302216
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 3N78W  5N90W  6N120W  5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
DEEP LAYER POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH
30N120W TO 20N130W.  TROUGH STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE PREVIOUSLY
WELL-ANCHORED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 100W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS.
JET STREAM ON E SIDE OF TROUGH ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE NE ACROSS S BAJA CALIFORNIA...N MEXICO AND
INTO S CENTRAL CONUS WITH CORE SPEEDS TOPPING 135 KT.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG RIDGE EXTEND ALONG 130W PROPULSING
MODERATE TO STRONG NE TRADES ALONG WIDE SWATH OF E PAC ALONG ITS
PERIPHERY.

E OF 100W...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERED VIRTUALLY
ENTIRE AREA E OF 100W EXCEPT SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W.

AT THE SURFACE...NE TO E WIND OF 20-25 KT OVER GULFS OF PAPAGAYO
AND TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD ABATE AS RIDGE IS PUSHED E WITHIN NEXT 36
HR.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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