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Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 15:09:07 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 13.6S0 167.1W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 167.1W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 13.8S2 165.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.2S8 164.4W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.9S6 163.4W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.8S7 162.1W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 166.7W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND
45 KNOTS. THE 031719Z1 AMSU/B AND 031754Z0 SSM/I MICROWAVE IM-
AGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS RECENTLY
BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD
EASRLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, INTENSIFYING SLOWLY IN AN ENVIR-
ONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. AFTER
12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z2 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 031351ZFEB2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 031400). NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND
042100Z7.//

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