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Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 15:07:46 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031421ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 23.0S5 58.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 58.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 24.2S8 57.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 25.6S3 56.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 27.1S0 56.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 28.7S7 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.3S8 57.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHEAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 EN-
HANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A STRONG
BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT THEN WEAKEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2
IS 19 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
031421ZFEB2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 031430)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.//

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