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Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 02:20:30 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A22 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__C230066_P2 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 160600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 16/0817 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [975HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4S 159.8W
AT 160600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CURVE WEST. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
GOES9/10 VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 40 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE, ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

W-NW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STEADILY INCREASING OVER NANCY AS LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ORGANISATION DECREASED RAPIDLY IN PAST 6 HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED SE OF LLCC. SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC <0.5 DEGREE FROM DEEP
CONVECTION YIELDS DT=3.0, MET=3.5 AND PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT, BUT CI
STILL 4.0: T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT
DECREASING ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND OLAF. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING WITH NANCY'S REMNANTS BEING
ABSORBED INTO CIRCULATION AROUND TC OLAF WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 23.5S 161.2W MOV WSW 08KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 24.0S 162.8W MOV W 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
NANCY WEAKENING BELOW TC INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS AS RESIDUAL LLCC
MERGES WITH TC OLAF.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 161400 UTC.

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