

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Wed, 02 Feb 2005 08:29:18 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j120TEid083545	for
<[email-masked]>; Wed, 02 Feb 2005 08:29:15 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j11Mf1EU062778; Tue,
01 Feb 2005 18:24:06 -0600
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.3)
with spool id          47284 for [email-masked]; Tue,
01 Feb 2005 18:24:06 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j120O5qj037626
for <[email-masked]>; Tue, 01 Feb 2005 18:24:05 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.13.3/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j120Nv87006496
for          <[email-masked]>; Tue,
01 Feb 2005 18:23:58 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.13.3/8.12.11/Submit)
id          j120Nv2i006495 for [email-masked]; Tue,
01 Feb 2005 18:23:57 -0600 (CST)
Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 18:23:57 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-LibAffairs-MailScanner: Found to be clean
X-MailScanner-From: [email-masked]
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 020022

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 17/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/02/02 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 64.1E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/02 12 UTC: 20.2S/62.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/03 00 UTC: 20.7S/61.2E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/03 12 UTC: 21.4S/59.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/04 00 UTC: 22.6S/57.7E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2005/02/04 12 UTC: 24.6S/56.6E, MAX WIND=035KT.
72H: 2005/02/05 00 UTC: 27.0S/56.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
MONSOON DEPRESSION SYSTEM : LARGE LLCC, WITH STRONGEST WINDS FAR FROM
THE
CENTRE. UNTIL NOW, DRY AIR INTRUSION IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL INHIBITS
THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
CONVECTION IS BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOURS.
THE WHOLE SYSTEM (LLCC AND CONVECTIVE BANDS) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER SLOWLY, GIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
MASCARENES
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.=

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.