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Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 23:36:11 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S9
142.0E7 IS NOW LOCATED OVER LAND NEAR 16.7S4 143.1E9, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SAT-
TELITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ENHANCED INFRARED
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL REGION OF CYCLING CONVECTION
LOCATED PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT 220300Z7 DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
VERTICALLY STACKED TO A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS LOW AND DIVERGENCE IS FAVORABLE, THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY IN THE PAST 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER, IT WILL
MOST LIKELY DEVELOP AS IT ALREADY HAS DYNAMICS IN PLACE FOR FAVORABLE
INTENSIFICATION.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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