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Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 07:00:22 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 201259

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 8/8/20042005
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/20 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 44.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/3.5 /D  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 050   NO: 050
50 KT       NE: 025   SE: 025   SO: 025   NO: 025

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/21 00 UTC: 15.3S/42.7E, MAX WIND=050KT.
24H: 2005/01/21 12 UTC: 17.0S/42.0E, MAX WIND=055KT.
36H: 2005/01/22 00 UTC: 19.0S/41.6E, MAX WIND=060KT.
48H: 2005/01/22 12 UTC: 20.6S/41.7E, MAX WIND=065KT.
60H: 2005/01/23 00 UTC: 21.9S/42.0E, MAX WIND=065KT.
72H: 2005/01/23 12 UTC: 23.6S/43.0E, MAX WIND=065KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED QUICKLY DURING THE SECOND PART OF LAST NIGHT
AND
THE BEGINNING OF THIS MORNING WITH FORMATION OF AN EYE WITHIN THE
HEAD OF
THE CLOUD COMMA ASSOCIATED TO THE CURVED BAND PATTERN.
THE EYE HAS DISSEPEAR ON INDOEX IMAGERY SINCE 0830Z AND THE SYTEM
PRESENTS NOW A CLASSIC STRUCTURE OF CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN THE LLCC.
WHEN SYSTEM TRACK OVER MAYOTTE, SEA LEVEL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT
995.2
HPA WITH MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS OF 43KT AND GUST OF 60KT.
MAXIMUM RAIN OF THE SYTEM EXISTS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
WOULD
CONCERN COMORES AND MAYOTTE ON THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
CONCERNING JUAN DE NOVA AND NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COAST DURING THE
NEXT
24 HOURS.
ERNEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS
IN
THE CHANNEL AND INTENSIFYING REGULARY.
SOME AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST A LANDFALL OF THE SYSTEM ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN MALAGASY COAST NEXT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.=

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