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Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 16:30:33 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 042230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 4N77W 5N100W 8N120W 8N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 127W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA EXTENDS NE ALONG AXIS 25N145W
35N135W AND IS COLLAPSING E OVER THE NW CONUS. THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW DOMINATES THIS DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 135W WITH
UPPER MOISTURE SPILLING ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS. ALONG 135W THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 27N118W. THE ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
135W-105W...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A BROAD RIDGE WITH AN
AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 32N135W TO 20N118W.

AN UPPER WIND MAXIMA EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS CIRCULATION...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 22N140W 15N125W
TO 25N105W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH
CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CONUS.

THE UPPER FLOW ALSO SPLITS NEAR 15N112W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N114W TO 20N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 11N112W TO
21N108W. THE UPPER JET TAPS DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS
CONVECTION AND ADVECTS IT NE ALONG THE WIND MAXIMA ACROSS
CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND W TEXAS.

TO THE E OF 100W...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 9N90W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS NW TO NEAR 28N95W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED
AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...NLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS INCLUDING THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND
FONSECA AND PANAMA AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
SIMILARLY...A MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE IN 30 HOURS...AND CONTINUE
TO BLOW AT NEAR 25 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON

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