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Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 11:37:14 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 220600Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 20.5S7 42.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PREVIOUS 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 220900)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0S5 112.0E4,
APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAVA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.3S9 80.5E3,
APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE, AND 850 MB VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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