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Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2005 03:14:02 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 270913
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...2N79W 4N90W 5N110W 2N123W
6N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 8N105W AND 6N110W. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ E OF 140W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST N OF THE REGION
ALONG 140W WITH A VORTICITY CENTER NEAR 37N140W. A SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED JUST NE OF THE VORT CENTER WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW TO NEAR THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE NE PACIFIC HAS BECOME ZONAL S OF
30N WITH A 125 KT JET PUSHING E TO 120W BEFORE WEAKENING AND
TURNING SEWD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE S
OF 20N W OF 115W. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC
SHEAR WITH THE STRONG JET TO THE N.

A STATIONARY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LIES OVER THE REGION N OF
20N WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE RIDGE. A
MULTILAYERED BAND OF CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE
FRONT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA.

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 110W AND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY E. THE
TROUGH IS PART OF A LARGER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER EXTREME NW
MEXICO AND BACK OVER CA. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED INTO MEXICO AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS DRAWING
MOISTURE FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W
AND 110W.

AN OPEN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 10N90W NORTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE N OF 20N. S OF
20N THROUGHOUT THE RIDGE THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY ACCORDING TO
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS BEING PRODUCED BY A COMBINATION OF
ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR AND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE HIGH LEVEL
WINDS. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AREA IS NOT ALLOWING CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 100W.

GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
HONDURAS S TO PANAMA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS
PRODUCING A MODERATE NE WIND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHICH IS
FLOWING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE
COAST. SSMI SHOWS WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OFF THE NW COAST OF COSTA
RICA. WINDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT SW AND W OF 10N88W. QUIKSCAT
DERIVED WINDS SHOW N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT S OF PANAMA TO NEAR
5N.

$$
RRG

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