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Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 13:18:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='DCC_BULK_LOW! 0,
LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671, __DCC_BODY 0, __DCC_FUZ1 0, __DCC_FUZ2 0,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTIO30 FMEE 051812

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 3/13/20042005
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 13

2.A POSITION 2005/02/05 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 57.5E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/06 06 UTC: 23.0S/56.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/06 18 UTC: 23.8S/55.1E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/07 06 UTC: 24.4S/53.9E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/07 18 UTC: 25.0S/52.5E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2005/02/08 06 UTC: 26.3S/51.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.
72H: 2005/02/08 18 UTC: 28.1S/49.1E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.
CONVECTION ALWAYS FLUCTUATING, HAS INTENSIFYED DURING THE LAST HOURS.
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK  SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER SLOWLY, AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.

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