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Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 09:51:25 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 141551
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 1N79W 5N91W 1N107W 8N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 3N149W WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE EXTENDING NE CRESTING IN THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 20N130W.
A LARGE MID TO UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED NEAR 17N112W WITH
ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA
N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 90W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE SW AN
UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 9N112W.

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE HAS MID TO UPPER CENTER N OF THE AREA
NEAR 36N136W AND IS SHIFTING ENE WITH TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE CYCLONE ALONG 30N140W 27N140W. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 32N128W 21N140W.

THE AXIS OF A WESTERLY UPPER WIND MAXIMA ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
15N140W AND CONTINUES E TO NEAR 16N130W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW
SPLITS. ONE BRANCH TURNS CYCLONICALLY NE ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
SPLITTING AGAIN NEAR 30N130W. THE OTHER BRANCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SPLIT OF THE WESTERLY JET CONTINUES SE INTO THE UPPER CYCLONE AT
9N112W AND LOSES IDENTITY AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES.

UPPER DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING ITCZ
CONVECTION NEAR 6N93W. STRONG UPPER DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF LINE 10N120W 25N115W
30N90W.

N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 48 HOURS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
MAINTAINING A DIURNAL 20 KT WIND THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
GAPS E OF 94W... BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GULF OF PANAMA IN 24
HOURS.

$$
NELSON

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