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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 00:43:45 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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WTIO30 FMEE 150629

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 19/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/15 AT 0600 UTC :
22.0S / 54.5E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/15 18 UTC: 22.5S/53.2E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/02/16 06 UTC: 23.0S/52.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/16 18 UTC: 23.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/17 06 UTC: 23.7S/50.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/17 18 UTC: 23.9S/49.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/18 06 UTC: 24.0S/48.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKEN, ALLOWING
DEEP CONVECTION TO REBUILD DUE TO CONVERGENCE WITH THE TRADE FLOW. CENTRE
REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THIS CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SLOW DOWN AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS IN THE SOUTH.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO THIS SCENARIO AT SHORT RANGE AND DISAGREE
AFTERWARDS.
STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES.

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

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