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Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 02:42:20 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//
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WTPS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 9.2S1 177.9W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 177.9W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 9.1S0 177.0W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 9.9S8 175.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 11.5S7 173.7W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 13.5S9 171.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 19.4S4 165.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 9.2S1 177.7W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525
NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
WARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 140530Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY EST-
IMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING
TC 19P IS CURRENTLY WEAK. A DEVELOPING BRANCH OF THE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE
THE PRIMARY SOUTHEASTWARD STEERING FLOW AFTER TAU 12. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 19P HAS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSIFI-
CATION RATE IS FORECAST TO SLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS TC 19P BEGINS INTERACTING WITH TC 18P TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARN-
INGS AT 141500Z1, 142100Z8, 150300Z9 AND 150900Z5. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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