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Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 14:29:33 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 Issued From Rsmc Nadi
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=X, Probability=10%, Report='LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

WTPS11 NFFN 121800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 12/2017 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY 09F CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
165.8W AT 121800 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED
ON GOES9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE
IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

A SMALL CDO IS DEVELOPING OVER LLCC. MAIN BAND TO EAST DEVELOPING AND
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND IT. CONVECTIVE TOPS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY
PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.6 TO 0.7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MET AND PT AGREE AT 3.0. NANCY REMAINS IN A
REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH AND
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE CAUGHT UNDER REGION OF WEAK STEERING,
HOWEVER, CONSENSUS FORECASTS AN INITIAL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TURN BEFORE
TREKKING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC NEAR 13.4S 165.8W MOV S 3KT WITH 40KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 13.8S 166.5W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 14.5S 166.3W MOV SSW 3KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 15.4S 165.6W MOV S 3KT WITH 60KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 130200 UTC.

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