

by ims1.ust.hk (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 Patch 1 (built Aug 19 2002))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for alau@ims-ms-daemon
(ORCPT [email-masked]); Sat, 22 Jan 2005 00:11:48 +0800 (CST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx1.ust.hk (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0LGBhVW074930	for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 22 Jan 2005 00:11:44 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0LBHaat033362; Fri,
21 Jan 2005 09:54:35 -0600
Received: from LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU
(LISTSERV-TCP/IP release          1.8e)
with spool id 261542 for [email-masked]; Fri,
21 Jan 2005 09:54:34 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (delyte.lib.siu.edu [131.230.73.222])
by          vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0LFsXx4016392
for <[email-masked]>; Fri, 21 Jan 2005 09:54:33 -0600
Received: from delyte.lib.siu.edu (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by delyte.lib.siu.edu          (8.12.11/8.12.11) with ESMTP id j0LFsRfk019586
for          <[email-masked]>; Fri,
21 Jan 2005 09:54:28 -0600 (CST)
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by delyte.lib.siu.edu (8.12.11/8.12.11/Submit)
id j0LFsRk6019585 for [email-masked]; Fri,
21 Jan 2005 09:54:27 -0600 (CST)
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 09:54:27 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
Message-id: <[email-masked]>
Precedence: list
X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 211554
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 4N77W 2N83W 3N103W
12N110W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS FROM 113W TO 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30
NM OF AXIS NEAR 132W. DISSIPATING SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75
NM OF THE AXIS NEAR 96W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 125W...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING N ALONG 21N137W TO
BEYOND 32N135W. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THAT TROUGH SWEEPS INTO THE
AREA IN 48 HOURS COMPLETELY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AXIS.

CURRENTLY S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS LIES ALONG
14N WITH VERY ACTIVE WESTERLY WINDS...ON THE ORDER OF 80-100 KT
AS NOTED IN CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED DATA...ARE FOUND S OF THE
SHEAR AXIS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 12N125W 14N132W.

BETWEEN 100W AND 125W...
VERY DOMINANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS PUSHING SLOWLY
E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 28.6N
113.4W. W OF THIS FEATURE...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NLY WINDS ARE
PUSHING S TOWARD THE BASE OF AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS NEAR
16N112W. CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS
RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE FOUND FROM
16N TO 23N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W.

FURTHER SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DIFFLUENT FLOW FOCUSED MAINLY
FROM 10N TO 20N E OF 110W IS PRODUCING MUCH CLOUDINESS AND SOME
POSSIBLE AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION. SIMILARLY...THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS IN THIS AREA CONTINUE TO PUMP MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL E PACIFIC MOISTURE NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

E OF 100W...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA
QUITE DRY WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
ITCZ.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATES ONLY A
NARROW...60-75 NM WIDE SWATH OF 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINIMAL SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REMAINING IN
24 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM A8BZ6 AND DHAF AT 1200 UTC INDICATE THAT
WESTERN EXTENT OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LIE ALONG 90W. BOTH
VESSELS APPEAR TO BE TRANSITING SE AND EARLIER REPORTS FROM 0600
UTC...W OF 90W...INDICATED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WHILE LATEST OBS
NEAR 89W ARE UP IN THE 25 KT RANGE. THIS WIND EVENT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO GET BELOW 20 KT BY THAT TIME.

$$
HOLWEG

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.