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Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 15:36:49 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 212136
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 3N77W 3N98W 6N110W
12N115W 11N127W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 114W TO 116W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 125W...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING N ALONG 21N138W TO
BEYOND 32N135W. RIDGE EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THAT TROUGH SWEEPS
INTO THE AREA IN 48 HOURS COMPLETELY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE
AXIS. S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM
16N125W WSWWD TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 9N140W.
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...ON THE ORDER OF 80-90 KT AS NOTED IN
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED DATA...ARE FOUND S OF THE SHEAR AXIS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 14N125W 13N132W.

BETWEEN 100W AND 125W...
WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 30N112.5W IS
PUSHING SLOWLY NE ACROSS EXTREME NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. W OF THIS FEATURE...MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL NLY WINDS ARE PUSHING S TOWARD THE BASE OF AN ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS NEAR 18N115W. CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FOUND FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W.

FURTHER SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DIFFLUENT FLOW FOCUSED MAINLY
FROM 10N TO 20N E OF 110W IS PRODUCING MUCH CLOUDINESS AND SOME
POSSIBLE AREAS OF WEAK CONVECTION. SIMILARLY...THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SW WINDS IN THIS AREA CONTINUE TO PUMP MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL E PACIFIC MOISTURE NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.

E OF 100W...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 95W
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA QUITE DRY WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WAS NOTED ALONG 80W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO...
SHIP OBSERVATION OF 15 KT FROM V2MK SUGGESTS WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
MINIMAL SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REMAINING IN 24 HOURS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM DHAF AT 1800 UTC INDICATE THAT WINDS
CONTINUE IN THE 25 KT RANGE. THIS WIND EVENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO GET BELOW 20 KT BY THAT TIME.

$$
COBB

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