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Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 10:11:31 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 041611
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 3N77W 8N85W 4N97W 9N128W
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF
AXIS W OF 127W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 79W.

..DISCUSSION...

N OF 18N W OF 105W...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N
E OF 128W WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 118W. TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
NWD SLOWLY ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...FLOW IS
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ALONG 141W.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX CONTINUES TO SWEEP CYCLONICALLY
AROUND THE TROUGH ALONG 31N127W 28N117W THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 140 KT OR GREATER
PER SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND GRIDDED DATA FROM THE GLOBAL
FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL. DRY AIR ALOFT LOCATED WITHIN 5-8 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED
WITH TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF MEXICO N OF
20N. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 24N111W TO
18N120W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 16N130W. POST FRONTAL TROUGH IS
LOCATED THROUGH 32N118W TO 29N116W TO 22N123W. NW WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LOCATED W OF THE TROUGH.

S OF 18N W OF 105W...
SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE TROPICS AND WAS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG
THE ITCZ W OF 127W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WAS MARKED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT.

E OF 105W...
LIGHT WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF
105W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE AREA E OF 80W. GAP WIND REGIMES PREDOMINATE WITH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AND OVER THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA WINDS ARE NE 20 TO 30 KT AS WELL.

$$
COBB

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