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Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 04:13:07 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 191012
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 4N90W 3N100W 5N120W 6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.

DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N E OF W OF 133W
WITH MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N122W SSW ALONG 22N125W THEN
TO 17N132W. A WEAKENING SURFACE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM
32N125W AND EXTENDS S TO 27N135W. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS N OF THE
AREA TO LOW PRES OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE TROUGH. VERY PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
EXTENDS FROM 21N120W NE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
CONTINUES NE TO THE SW UNITED STATES. THE STRONGEST WINDS...
UP TO NEAR 100 KT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET CORE MAXIMUM ARE BEING
OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. THESE
WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO ADVECT TROPICAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES WITHIN ROUGHLY
300 NM SE OF THE JET STREAM. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE JUST
OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH TIME. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED N OF 13N W OF 118W.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR A BROAD EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 13N95W MOVING N 15 KT AND SLOWLY BECOMING DIFFUSE. RATHER
DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY....EXCEPT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 92W-96W AND 115W-125W. AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LOCATED COATED WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM SE OF JET STREAM.

$$
AGUIRRE

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