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Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 21:34:56 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
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X-Perlmx-Spam: Gauge=XXXIIIIIIII, Probability=38%,
Report='HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2 3.4, LINES_OF_YELLING_3 0.671,
__HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

AXPZ20 KNHC 060334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 6N90W 6N120W 8N140W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-134W.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
LOW PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA NEAR
32N137W AND IS RACING TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWD TO 28N137W BEYOND 24N140W. THE LOW AND FRONT
ARE ACCOMPANIED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG
32N134W 25N135W WHICH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF
25N BETWEEN 129W-136W...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY WEAKENING
AS IT OUTRUNS THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL AND DRY EXTENDING
DUE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS UNTIL IT REACHES AN ANTICYCLONE
NEAR 11N119W WITH RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING NE TO NEAR MAZATLAN
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING BROAD SWLY FLOW TO ITS NORTH
WITH MOISTURE...DERIVED FROM ITCZ CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE
DAY...EXTENDING FROM 130W TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NRN MEXICO.
BROAD SFC HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS THIS AREA ANCHORED BY A 1024
MB HIGH SW OF SAN DIEGO NEAR 31N121W.

E OF 110W...
A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MEXICO CITY SWWD TO 10N104W 1N111W WITH THE ENTIRE AREA E OF
110W UNDER MODERATE TO VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF CNTRL AMERICA AND SRN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
ALSO SUPPRESSING ALL DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. AT THE
SFC...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WHICH ARE FUNNELING MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE GULFS OF PANAMA...PAPAGAYO...AND FONSECA. THE WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE OBTAINING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHAUNTEPEC ARE QUICKLY DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

$$
BERG

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