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Date: Sat, 05 Jan 2008 01:45:51 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
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685
FXPQ60 PGUM 050745
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
545 PM CHST SAT JAN 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHEAR LINE NEAR ANATAHAN...CLOSE TO
WHERE THE GFS PROGGED IT SEVERAL DAYS AGO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE PRESENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE
SHEAR LINE. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM
POHNPEI STATE TO SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND. VORTICITY CENTERS WERE
RESOLVABLE SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK NEAR 5N154E AND NORTHWEST OF
KWAJALEIN NEAR 11N163E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF. SEE
MARINE DISCUSSION SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WEATHER FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED. REDUCED
CLOUDS FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN BASED UPON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AT PRESENT...LOOKS LIKE MARIANAS WILL BE POSITIONED TOO FAR
SOUTH TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE SHEAR LINE...AND TOO FAR
NORTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA.
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE
STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. LOOKS LIKE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KOSRAE AND MAJURO TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS INDUCED BY TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
KOSRAE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THURSDAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
LINGER ACROSS POHNPEI UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS POHNPEI UNTIL THURSDAY.

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL SUGGESTS HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING FOR MAJURO...AND INTO MONDAY FOR KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CHUUK
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATED FROM TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS CHUUK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATED BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS PREVAILING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PALAU THROUGH THURSDAY. NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT YAP THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT SURF HEIGHTS HAD DECREASED BELOW
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR YAP AND PALAU. FOR THIS REASON THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS DISCONTINUED FOR PALAU AND YAP.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE REISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT
BASED PRIMARILY ON AN AFTERNOON SURF OBSERVATION CALLED IN FROM
RITIDIAN POINT. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARINE SWELL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. BELIEVE SURF HAS PEAKED BASED ON WAVE WATCH TABULAR
DATA AND WEAKENED UPSTREAM FETCH OBSERVED IN THE LATEST QUIKSCAT
IMAGERY. KEPT COMBINED SEAS AT 9 FEET BASED ON PREVAILING SEAS
BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FEET AT THE IPAN BUOY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/ZIOBRO

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