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Date: Mon, 04 Aug 2008 21:46:09 -0500
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Storm 10w Warning
Nr 03//
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WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) KAMMURI 10W HAS MOVED GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER
THE
PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. INTENSIFICATION HAS
HELD
STEADY WITH CONVECTION SLOW TO CENTRALIZE AROUND THE LLCC. A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE EAST HAS CONTINUED
TO EVACUATE MASS POLEWARD, WHILE BROAD-SCALE NORTHEASTERLY DIFFLEUNT
FLOW HAS PROVIDED EQUATORWARD EXHAUST. FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER HAS MADE POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFICULT.
B. MORE RECENTLY CONVECTIVE BANDING WITHIN ALL QUADRANTS OF THE STORM
HAS BEGUN TO MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
AS THE STORM CONSOLIDATES. THIS INWARD MIGRATION, COUPLED WITH A
042257Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE, OFFERS INCREASED CERTAINTY IN THE LOW LEVEL
POSITION.
THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, BUT AT A WEAKER CAPACITY, AS IT HAS SLIGHTLY FILLED AND
REMAINED
QUASISTATIONARY AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. EQUATORWARD
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED THE PRIMARY OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
BUT
HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO HEIGHTENED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES (BETWEEN
10
AND 20 KNOTS) OVER AN ALREADY BROAD SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ANALYSES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE
OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING. THE PREVIOUS STORM MOTION (BEST TRACK
POSITS) HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT BATCH OF POSITION
FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT THE 041800Z POSITION
FIXES AND SUBSEQUENT BEST TRACK POSIT WAS BASED ON HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
WITH MORE RECENT POSITION FIXES KEYING IN ON A NEWER AREA OF CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER. AS A RESULT, THE STORM TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FURTHER
NORTHWESTWARD WITH LANDFALL WITH MAINLAND CHINA EXPECTED SOONER (NEAR
TAU 36). INTENSITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR DECREASED TIME OVER FAVORABLE WATER PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.
B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE NORTH
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND SLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. EQUATOR-
WARD DIFFLUENCE, COMBINED WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA, WILL FACILITATE THIS
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24 AND PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU
36,
THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY MORE MODESTLY DUE TO LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT.
THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BETWEEN TAU
48 AND 72 OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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