

by ms1.ust.hk (Sun Java System Messaging Server 6.2-3.03 (built Jun 27 2005))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for [email-masked]; Tue,
05 Feb 2008 15:50:54 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from wx-out-0506.google.com (wx-out-0506.google.com [66.249.82.232])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id m157ooJQ045823	for <[email-masked]>;
Tue, 05 Feb 2008 15:50:52 +0800 (HKT)
Received: by wx-out-0506.google.com with SMTP id h26so2072936wxd.22 for
<[email-masked]>; Mon, 04 Feb 2008 23:50:50 -0800 (PST)
Received: by 10.142.139.19 with SMTP id m19mr4017286wfd.7.1202197849598; Mon,
04 Feb 2008 23:50:49 -0800 (PST)
Received: by 10.143.17.19 with SMTP id u19cs199631wfi; Mon,
04 Feb 2008 23:50:49 -0800 (PST)
Received: by 10.65.242.11 with SMTP id u11mr14979429qbr.19.1202197847679; Mon,
04 Feb 2008 23:50:47 -0800 (PST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx.google.com with ESMTP id e13si6463691qbe.31.2008.02.04.23.50.46; Mon,
04 Feb 2008 23:50:47 -0800 (PST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id m145Arh3009237; Tue,
05 Feb 2008 01:50:11 -0600 (CST)
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5)
with spool id 14687733 for [email-masked]; Tue,
05 Feb 2008 01:50:10 -0600
Received: from relay8.cso.uiuc.edu (relay8.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.111])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id m157oAqN000386 for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 05 Feb 2008 01:50:10 -0600 (CST)
Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48])
by relay8.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id m157o4Fo010312 for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 05 Feb 2008 01:50:10 -0600 (CST)
Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [127.0.0.1])
by weather3.admin.niu.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id m157o3vb000828 for
<[email-masked]>; Tue, 05 Feb 2008 01:50:03 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by weather3.admin.niu.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2/Submit)
id m157o33g000827 for [email-masked]; Tue, 05 Feb 2008 01:50:03 -0600
Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2008 01:50:03 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
designates 128.174.5.113 as permitted sender) client-ip=128.174.5.113;
Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of
[email-masked] designates 128.174.5.113 as permitted sender)
smtp.mail=[email-masked]
spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0
classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=3.1.0-0801230000
definitions=main-0802040092
Original-recipient: rfc822;[email-masked]
__CP_URI_IN_BODY 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __HELO_GMAIL 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0,
__MIME_TEXT_ONLY 0, __RDNS_GMAIL 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

874
FXPQ60 PGUM 050749
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
549 PM CHST TUE FEB 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS. VIS
SAT ALSO SHOWS A GAS/ASH PLUME STREAMING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
ANATAHAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS
ALL KEEP THE MARIANAS UNDER DRY TRADE WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE RAIN
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE EAST TO EAST-
NORTHEAST...SO THE PLUME FROM ANATAHAN WILL NOT BE AFFECTING THE
MARIANAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE KBDI ABOVE 600 IN SPITE OF YESTERDAY'S RAIN...AND WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE RE-ESTABLISHED...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FELL BELOW 50 PCT TODAY AND SHOULD DO SO EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...ANY INCREASE IN WINDS
MAY REQUIRE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS A ITCZ-LIKE FEATURE OF TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE IN A LINE ALONG 5N WITH SOME CONVERGENCE SOUTH TO THE EQUATOR.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS...I EXPECT THAT AT SOME POINT THIS
SHOWER-ONLY AREA WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME PERIODS OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AMOUNT OF RAIN EACH ISLAND WILL GET DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD THEN DEPENDS A BIT ON HOW MUCH THIS LINE MEANDERS...AND
FLARES. MODELS...PRIMARILY ECMWF...NOGAPS AND GFS TODAY ARE MOSTLY
IN AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THEY DO SUGGEST THAT KOSRAE IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO GET
THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS...BUT WITH POHNPEI AND MAJURO LYING JUST TO THE
NORTH. BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK MODELS FINALLY BEGIN TO HIT
MAJURO AND THEN ALSO POHNPEI BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SEEMS TO FOLLOW
WITH CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...SO BASICALLY FOLLOWED WITH
ONLY SOME LIGHT ADJUSTMENTS.

WW3 WAVE WATCH FORECAST MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH SURF-CRITERIA
BEING MET FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. I
EXTENDED THE PREVIOUS COMMENTS FROM THE EARLIER SHIFTS SUGGESTING
THAT WEDNESDAY WOULD BE THE PEAK DAY TO THE LATER END OF THE WEEK
TIME FRAME.  IN FACT THE NOGAPS VERSIONS OF THE WW3 SHOWS A NEW
SURGE COMING INTO THE MAJURO AREA BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS THE LIKELY END OF THE HIGH SURF PERIOD.
FOR POHNPEI...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE CURRENT HIGH SURF
EPISODE ENDING TONIGHT AND THEN STARTING BACK UP BY THURSDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE ISLANDS. TODAY...
CHUUK HAD SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PERIOD OF ALMOST CONTINUOUS RAIN WILL
END SOMETIME TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS PLENTY
OF HEAVY SHOWERS...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...STRETCHING BACK ALMOST TO
POHNPEI. SO POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT CHUUK MIGHT CONTINUE TO RECEIVE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...I JUST KEPT IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED BY THE MODELS TO BEGIN
AFFECTING KOROR AND YAP BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE INTENSITY DOES NOT
APPEAR AS STRONG OR AS SUSTAINED. SO WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR KOROR
AND YAP BY THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER.

WW3 SHOWS ALL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY SWELL DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH THE
MODERATE TRADES NOT MEETING THE HIGHER EAST FACING REEF CRITERIA FOR
12 FOOT SURF.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/EDSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.