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Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2008 13:32:04 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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346
FXPQ60 PGUM 041931
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
531 AM CHST SAT JAN 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE MARIANAS AND A SHEAR LINE BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEAR LINE SEEMS ON SATELLITE TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD. SOUTH MOVEMENT IS BEING CAUSED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR IN THE MID-LATITUDES. SPLIT ZONES TO INCREASE CLOUDS AT
TINIAN AND SAIPAN. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE
WHATSOEVER. NEW GFS40 SEEMS TO DO SOME SQUIRRELLY THINGS WITH THE
WINDS WITH SUDDEN INCREASES AND DECREASES...SO DID NOT EVEN
REFRESH THE WINDS TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGED THE CLOUDS AS MENTIONED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND
SURGE HAS LIFTED NORTHWEST OF MAJURO AND KOSRAE...BUT IS STILL OVER
POHNPEI AND THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. AS THE
RESULT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVER KOSRAE AND MAJURO
TODAY...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER POHNPEI AND THE
NORTHERN MARSHALLS INTO THE EVENING. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MIGHT HELP
TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER POHNPEI AS WELL. FAIR CONDITIONS
SHALL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY. A NEW TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
WILL THEN BRING MORE RAIN FOR THE MARSHALLS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD INTO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY
MID WEEK.

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL SUGGESTS HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAJURO...AND INTO MONDAY FOR KOSRAE. SURF
HEIGHTS SHALL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL FOR MAJURO BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE INDUCED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS FINALLY MAKING ITS
WAY TOWARD CHUUK. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER CHUUK TODAY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERS ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RESIDUE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECT TO KEEP CLOUDINESS OVER THE
ISLAND STATE INTO NEXT WEEK. A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH PALAU AND
YAP WILL ADD SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING AT
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR YAP AND PALAU THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SURF HEIGHTS WILL THEN SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

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