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Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2008 12:59:09 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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065
FXPQ60 PGUM 251859
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
459 AM CHST SAT JAN 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHEAST TRADES STILL IN PLACE TODAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S. LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG TRADE-WIND INVERSION
AT 6000 FEET. BUT IN SPITE OF THESE INHIBITING FACTORS...RADAR AND
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NARROW SW-NE ORIENTED BANDS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST GFS/UKMET MODEL RUNS ARE LITTLE-CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...
SHOWING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMIMG MORE EAST AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
ISOLD SHOWERS AROUND THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AS CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO FORM JUST UNDER THE INVERSION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAYTIME.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
NORTH SWELL EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING HAZ
SURF TO NORTHERN EXPOSURES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED...DRY TRADES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. HAVE
BROUGHT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK SYSTEM PROGGED BY GFS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION...SO LEFT ISOLATED POPS
IN THE FORECAST.

WW3 MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LARGE AND LONG PERIOD NORTH
SWELL ARRIVING TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ALL 3 LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE...KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR BOTH PALAU AND YAP. FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER CHUUK...BROUGHT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING ON MONDAY TO COINCIDE WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA.

HAZARDOUS SURF WILL PERSIST ALONG NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING REEFS
THROUGH TODAY FOR YAP AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PALAU. BY
TUESDAY...HIGH SURF MAY ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/LEE

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