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Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2008 14:13:08 -0600
From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 01w Warning Nr 003
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WTPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 116.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 116.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 13.2N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.6N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 11.7N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.7N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 115.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT METSAT AND SCATTERO-
METER DATA INDICATES THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY
HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS AS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
OVERCOME THE WESTWARD TRACK INTO COOLER WATERS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TD 01W UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. TD 01W HAS CONTINUED
TO PULL IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATE WITH A COLD SURGE OFF THE
ASIAN CONTINENT. THE CONTINUAL TRACK INTO UNFAVORABLE WATERS, COLD AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE TD 01W TO DISSIPATE
OVER WATER PRIOR TO TAU 36. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ONE WITH DISSIPATION OVER WATER OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHERN VIETNAMESE COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND
142100Z.//

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