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Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2008 13:42:26 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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914
FXPQ60 PGUM 281942
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
542 AM CHST TUE JAN 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS A SHEAR LINE WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT
TINIAN AND SAIPAN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF GUAM SLOWLY APPROACHING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HINT AT A DRY DAY TODAY FOR GUAM. SAME SHOULD HOLD TRUE FOR
THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE HAS NOT
BEEN THAT MUCH RAIN AT SAIPAN THIS MORNING WITH ONLY 0.08 INCHES
OVERNIGHT. QPF SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALLOWING THE KBDI TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE EXTREME
CATEGORY. VEGETATION LOOKS ONLY MILDLY STRESSED SO FAR BUT THAT
CAN CHANGE PRETTY QUICKLY WHEN THE NEAR SURFACE WATER RUNS LOW.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A TRADE SURGE OVER EASTERN
MICRONESIA...THIS IS NO SURPRISE AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
IT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THIS FEATURE...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE.
PRECIP COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED POPS THOUGH.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...A WEAKER TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL NOSE
INTO MAJURO AND KOSRAE BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AGAIN.

COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SHEAR LINE HAS WAVERED NORTH...DRIER TRADES HAVE ALREADY
FILTERED SOUTH OVER YAP AND PALAU AND WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AT YAP AND MOST OF THE WEEK
AT PALAU. THE TRADE-SURGE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA COULD
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK TO PALAU ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ERODING WITH EACH NEW
MODEL UPDATE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EVIDENT ON THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE WARRANTED AN UPDATE TO CHUUKS FORECAST TO INCLUDE
SCATTERED POPS TODAY AS LEADING EDGE OF SURGE PUSHES INTO REGION.
BEYOND TODAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/LEE

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