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Date: Sun, 06 Jan 2008 01:35:22 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
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265
FXPQ60 PGUM 060735
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
535 PM CHST SUN JAN 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT WSR-88D LOOP SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS
AND THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHEAR LINE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
ANATAHAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHEAR LINE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...AND CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
THIS SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...HAVE
UPPED THE CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS SYSTEM
DOES BEAR WATCHING AS IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO INCREASE POPS TO
SCATTERED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE...AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN TWO
ISLANDS. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT ISOLATED IN
THE FORECAST. LATER IN THE WEEK...GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE WEST PAC. THIS MAY KICK UP THE WINDS
INTO THE FRESH CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
WW3 SHOWED A MARKED DECREASE IN NORTH SWELL HEIGHT. THIS CORRELATED WELL
WITH RELIABLE REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SURF ON NORTHERN
EXPOSURES THAN YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALLOWED THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KBDI CONTINUES TO CLIMB. CURRENTLY AT 553 IT WILL BREACH
600...EXTREME FIRE DANGER...BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF WETTING
RAINS ARE NOT RECEIVED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
HIGH SURF EVENT CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN...APPEARS TAIL END OF THE CURRENT
EVENT WILL END ON KOSRAE BY TOMORROW MORNING. LOOKS LIKE NEXT
CHANCE FOR HIGH SURF WILL BE A COMBINATION OF NORTH SWELL AND
TRADE-WIND SURGE ARRIVING LATE ON THURSDAY.

WEATHER IN EASTERN MICRONESIA FOCUSES ON BEHAVIOR OF CONVECTION
CONCENTRATING WITHIN THE ZONE OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE.
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS CURRENTLY APPEAR IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI AND NORTHEAST OF MAJURO.
KOSRAE APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LARGELY AVOID SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE
FOR MAJURO AND POHNPEI. MAJURO SHOULD BE AFFECTED MONDAY NIGHT BY
THE LOW-LEVEL VORT TO THE EAST...AND POHNPEI WILL RECEIVE
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS THE OTHER LOW-LEVEL VORT
PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST.

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
BEST CHANCES FOR HIGH SURF THROUGH DAY 5 APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO
EASTERN MICRONESIA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE HERE EITHER. LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR CHUUK
AS WELL. TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST
TOMORROW TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO END. YAP IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH DAY
5. FORECAST FOR KOROR CALLS FOR NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION TO RETREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY DAWN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

LEE/MCELROY

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