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Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2008 01:47:15 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
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402
FXPQ60 PGUM 100747
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
547 PM CHST SUN FEB 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STARTED OFF BREEZY THIS
MORNING BUT DECREASED DURING THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LATEST GFS
DECREASES WINDS TOO FAST TONIGHT...SO LEFT WIND FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AS IS. RE-WORKED WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS GFS AND NGPS
INDICATES WINDS MAY BE MORE NORTHEAST THAN IN OLD FORECAST.

THE NEW GFS (00Z) RUN INCREASES WINDS CONSIDERABLY BY NEXT
SATURDAY. THE NEW RUN HAS WIND SPEEDS THAT ARE ALMOST DOUBLE OF
WHAT IS IN FORECAST NOW. LEFT FORECAST AS IS BECAUSE I WAS NOT
CERTAIN IF THIS WAS A BRIEF MODEL HALLUCINATION. WILL WAIT FOR MORE
CONFIRMATION BEFORE WORKING THIS IN TO FORECAST.

&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LET SMALL CRAFT
EXPIRE AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS BECOME VERY
LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. IN FACT IT WILL PROBABLY THE LIGHTEST
WINDS OF THE YEAR SO FAR. SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS UNLIKELY FOR
THE COMING WEEK. A NORTH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL ENTER THE
MARIANAS BY WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH THIS SWELL...SEAS WILL STAY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A BRIEF SHOWER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER LONG TERM SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OF LOW
PROBABILITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SO LOOK FOR INCREASING
VALUES OF KBDI FOR THE NEAR TERM. THE ONLY THING THAT WILL SAVE US
FROM A RED FLAG WARNING THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CURRENT FORECAST IS OVERALL SIMILAR AS BEFORE. ONLY CHANGE IS TO
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE FOR TONIGHT.
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
POHNPEI BY MONDAY AND KOSRAE BY TUESDAY. MODERATE TRADES WILL THEN
BRING IN A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN AROUND MID-WEEK. MAJURO IS
ALREADY IN THE DRY TRADES AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NO NEED TO UPDATE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO.
LATEST MODEL RUN IS IDENTICAL AS PREVIOUS...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL
SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MAJURO MONDAY MORNING AND
KOSRAE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
BOTH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE UPSTREAM SOUTHEAST OF KOROR. WITH THE WEAK CIRCULATION
NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTHWEST OF KOROR...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER YAP THIS EVENING DUE TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE. THEN DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO YAP BY MONDAY AND
EXTEND INTO PALAU BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW ON
ADVANCING THE TRADE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER CHUUK. SHOWERS WILL
BE KNOCKING ON THEIR DOOR THIS EVENING. HINDERED BY THE WEAK
CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF KOROR...THIS TRADE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS
GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR THE ISLAND. THEREFORE
MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.

NO HIGH SURF FORESEEN DURING THE SHORT TERM. WAVE WATCH TABULAR DATA
SUGGEST NORTH SWELL EVENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

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