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Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2008 03:01:16 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
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550
WWPS21 NFFN 130900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/0900 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 179.0W AT
130600UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND
29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
A DEFINITE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS STAGE BUT
QUIKSCAT SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES
IN THE VICINITY ARE LOW SO CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLS ARE MINIMAL AT THIS
STAGE. THERE IS NOW ORGANISED CONVECTION WITH MAJOR ACTIVITY LOCATED
TO THE NORTH. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 08F REMAINS UNDER A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LIES
JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER 250HPA RIDGE. WITH AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE
TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE LOST 08F.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 204S 174.5W AT
130600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS HARD TO SEE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MAJOR CONVECTION IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS
WITHOUT MUCH ORGANISATION. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS] HAVE PICKED UP THE
SYSTEM BUT DO NOT DEEPEN IT FURTHER AND ALL AGREE ON A GENERAL
SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR 09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

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