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Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2008 01:07:46 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
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187
FXPQ60 PGUM 170707
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
507 PM CHST THU JAN 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES ARE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE MARIANAS. VISIBLE SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY DRY CUMULUS IN THE AREA...BUT A WEAK TRADE
DISTURBANCE IS CROSSING 150E AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE ISLANDS
LATE TONIGHT OR FRI MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. RADAR STILL
DOWN. MISS IT TERRIBLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS AND UKMET ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A SHEAR LINE SETTLING INTO
THE MARIANAS BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOMEWHAT
HIGHER WINDS COMING IN BEHIND IT. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS ARE MINOR...AND DO NOT WARRANT ANY CHANGES IN THE GRIDS.

CURRENT VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEAR LINE IN PLACE FROM THE BONIN
ISLANDS TO SOUTHERN LUZON WAITING FOR A NEW MID-LATITUDE LOW-
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST FROM JAPAN...FOLLOWED BY THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS SUPPOSED TO DRIVE THE SHEAR LINE SOUTH
INTO THE MARIANAS. THE WEAK LINK IN THIS WHOLE SCENARIO IS THAT
THE LOW-PRESSURE AREA IS NOT YET EVIDENT BUT IS FORECAST TO FORM
JUST EAST OF JAPAN FRI MORNING. ONCE THAT DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE...
OUR CONFIDENCE WILL RISE.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
ONLY MODERATE RIP RISK THE NEXT FEW DAY...BUT A HIGH SURF EVENT IS
LIKELY LOOMING MON NIGHT/TUE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE SHEAR
LINE AND A SURGE OF NORTH SWELL FROM THE SYSTEM MOVIING EAST FROM
JAPAN COMBINE TO PUSH SEAS UP TO 11-12 FEET.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED BETWEEN POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATING
SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND NORTH OF KOSRAE. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE HAS
BEEN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS
WESTWARD INTO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL START
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THESE ISLANDS AS WELL. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER A WEAK WAVE MIGHT
SPOIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND ON KOSRAE WITH MORE SHOWERS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH SURF SITUATION AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO...WHERE
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
MAJURO AND FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS OVER KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY OVER CHUUK THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN
THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PAY A SHORT VISIT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE REMAINS HIGH OVER PALAU AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH. AIDED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS
ARE PREDICTING THE TROUGH TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE EQUATOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PALAU TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT. YAP IS
SITUATED AT THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. SOME
CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD OVER FROM TIME TO TIME BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT IS EXPECTED FROM THE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN

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