

by ms1.ust.hk (Sun Java System Messaging Server 6.2-3.03 (built Jun 27 2005))
with ESMTPS id <[email-masked]> for [email-masked]; Sat,
02 Feb 2008 16:05:56 +0800 (HKT)
Received: from wa-out-1112.google.com (wa-out-1112.google.com [209.85.146.182])
by mx2.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id m1285rgL096065	for <[email-masked]>;
Sat, 02 Feb 2008 16:05:55 +0800 (HKT)
Received: by wa-out-1112.google.com with SMTP id j37so1061057waf.7 for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 02 Feb 2008 00:05:53 -0800 (PST)
Received: by 10.142.240.9 with SMTP id n9mr2669686wfh.214.1201939553089; Sat,
02 Feb 2008 00:05:53 -0800 (PST)
Received: by 10.143.17.19 with SMTP id u19cs231584wfi; Sat,
02 Feb 2008 00:05:52 -0800 (PST)
Received: by 10.64.24.20 with SMTP id 20mr7541138qbx.64.1201939552192; Sat,
02 Feb 2008 00:05:52 -0800 (PST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by mx.google.com with ESMTP id e15si3206867qba.9.2008.02.02.00.05.49; Sat,
02 Feb 2008 00:05:52 -0800 (PST)
Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id m11JS2U6004610; Sat,
02 Feb 2008 01:54:34 -0600 (CST)
Received: by LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5)
with spool id 14646921 for [email-masked]; Sat,
02 Feb 2008 01:54:34 -0600
Received: from relay7.cso.uiuc.edu (relay7.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.108])
by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id m127sXwC001349 for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 02 Feb 2008 01:54:33 -0600 (CST)
Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48])
by relay7.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id m127sReO029871 for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 02 Feb 2008 01:54:33 -0600 (CST)
Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [127.0.0.1])
by weather3.admin.niu.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id m127sRfg011599 for
<[email-masked]>; Sat, 02 Feb 2008 01:54:27 -0600
Received: (from ldm@localhost) by weather3.admin.niu.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2/Submit)
id m127sRJs011598 for [email-masked]; Sat, 02 Feb 2008 01:54:27 -0600
Date: Sat, 02 Feb 2008 01:54:27 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
<[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Reply-to: [email-masked]
designates 128.174.5.113 as permitted sender) client-ip=128.174.5.113;
Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of
[email-masked] designates 128.174.5.113 as permitted sender)
smtp.mail=[email-masked]
spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0
classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=3.1.0-0801230000
definitions=main-0802010095
Original-recipient: rfc822;[email-masked]
__CP_URI_IN_BODY 0, __HAS_MSGID 0, __HELO_GMAIL 0, __LINES_OF_YELLING 0,
__MIME_TEXT_ONLY 0, __RDNS_GMAIL 0, __SANE_MSGID 0'

057
FXPQ60 PGUM 020754
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
554 PM CHST SAT FEB 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARIANAS. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE AROUND TINIAN AND
SAIPAN...BUT ONLY DRY CUMULUS AROUND GUAM AND ROTA. GUAM MORNING
SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG TRADE-WIND INVERSION AT ABOUT 5000 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SHOW DRY DAY COMING
UP SUNDAY...SO TRIMMED SUNDAY POPS TO 10 PCT. FROM SUN NIGHT ON...
LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS. TOOK
OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SUN NIGHT...BUT KEPT IT IN FOR MON AND MON
NIGHT AS GFS STILL BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME.

LOOKS LIKE SURF SHOULD STAY DOWN FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...WITH A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO MAJURO THIS
EVENING. A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY BTW NORTHEASTERLIES AND EASTERLIES
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE TROUGH TO JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI. BASED ON
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND KWAJALEIN RADAR IMAGERY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE DATELINE TO MAJURO ACROSS SOUTH OF
KWAJALEIN TO NORTH OF KOSRAE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER MAJURO THRU TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD OVER TO KOSRAE SUNDAY MORNING
AND POHNPEI IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAKER TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL
KEEP CLOUDINESS OVER MAJURO INTO MID-WEEK. PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KOSRAE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ON TOP OF THE ISLAND. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE OVER POHNPEI BY WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENCE SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATES SURF WILL BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVELS ALONG NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING SHORES FOR KOSRAE THRU
TONIGHT...THEN RISES TO 9 FT BY SUNDAY EVENING. SURF ON MAJURO WILL
STAYS AT 11 TO 13 FT THRU SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SUBSIDES TO BTW 10
AND 12 FT BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR
POHNPEI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURF EXPECT TO REACH 11 TO 13 FT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF CHUUK WILL PUSH WEST ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST MIGHT STAY SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW
CHUUK TO ENJOY RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER INTO MID-WEEK. DRY TRADE-WIND
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE YAP WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BREAKING THE DRY TRADE
REGIME OVER PALAU ON MONDAY BY INTENSIFYING THE TRADE DISTURBANCE
SOUTH OF THE STATE. DO NOT SEE ANY REASONS TO SUPPORT THIS YET.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON CHUUK BY SUNDAY EVENING AS SURF
RISES TO BTW 11 AND 12 FT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.