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Date: Tue, 08 Jan 2008 03:00:10 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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425
FXPQ60 PGUM 080900
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
700 PM CHST TUE JAN 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
88D AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER SHOWED SHEAR LINE
CONVECTION TRAINING OVER GUAM AND ROTA EARLIER...BUT BEGINNING TO
BOOMERANG NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DIFFUSE TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE APPEARS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY UPSTREAM OF THE
MARIANAS...CENTERED AROUND 155E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST-MINUTE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST SCENARIO. SHEAR LINE REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE IN THE MODELS. A LATE GLANCE AT THE SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWED THE SHEAR LINE CRACKING BACK TO THE NORTH...SO ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NEXT MOVE WAS TO PLAY THE USUAL
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM AND CALLED FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
END EVERYWHERE SOON AFTER SUNRISE.

NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING OTHER MINOR TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DISTURBANCES LOOK
TOO WEAK AT PRESENT TO DEPART FROM PARTLY CLOUDY/ISOLATED WORDING
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. REFRESHED WINDS AND DEW POINTS THROUGH
DAY 4 AND TOOK THE LIBERTY TO TRIM BACK WIND SPEEDS ON DAY 9 IN THE
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SUSPECTED HIGH BIAS IN WIND SPEEDS TOWARD THE
END OF THE MODEL RUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS JUST ABOVE THE SCA THRESHOLD IN GUAM AND ROTA WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO ADVISORIES FORESEEN. NORTH SWELL WILL DROP
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY DROP BELOW THE MODERATE RISK
THRESHOLD BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE... TRADE SURGE STILL PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE REGION
BY MID-WEEK. UPPED FORECAST TO SCATTERED POPS FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
STARTING THURSDAY...LEFT MAJURO UNTOUCHED. WW3 STILL FLIP-FLOPPING
ON FORECAST COMBINED SEAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...18Z RUN
PROGGED 13 FT SEAS FOR SUNDAY. LATEST RUN NOW ONLY SHOWS ABOUT
10 FT. TOOK THE MIDDLE ROAD AND WENT WITH 10 TO 12 FT. IN ANY
CASE...WITH FORECAST PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS THIS WILL BE AT LEAST AN
ADVISORY EVENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE GFS PROGS A WEAK CIRCULATION CURRENTLY MIGRATING NORTHWEST ALONG
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF KOROR TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF YAP
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ECMWF TAKES IT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THIS POSITION. IN EITHER CASE...STRONG CONVERGENCE INTO THE LOW WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER YAP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AND SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR KOROR
INTO THE WEEKEND. DO NOT THINK THE FULL BRUNT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TRADE-WIND SURGE WILL MAKE IT TO CHUUK...SO HAVE KEPT GENERALLY
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM
CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PMZ153-154.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM CHST
WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151-152.

&&

$$

MCELROY/LEE

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