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Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2008 17:32:21 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary
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388
WWPS21 NFFN 132100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/2332 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S 179.3W AT
131800UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND
29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
A DEFINITE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS
STAGE. QUIKSCAT MAINTAINS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL
PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY ARE RISING SLIGHTLY. THERE IS A PULSE OF
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA BUT WITH NO DEFINITE ORGANISATION. CIMMS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM STILL LIES IN A REGION OF UPPER DILUENCE IN
A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS ACTIVE TO THE
NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE LOST 08F.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.5S 174.2W AT
132100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS HARD TO SEE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTION IS SHEARED BUT TO THE EAST WITHOUT MUCH ORGANISATION.
CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS [US,UKGC,EC] DO NOT DEEPEN THE SYSTEM ANY FURTHER AND MOVE IT
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

POTENTIAL FOR 09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

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