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Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2008 13:40:58 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products
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822
FXPQ60 PGUM 171940
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
540 AM CHST FRI JAN 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS GUAM THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WEAK
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO
GUAM AND ROTA THIS MORNING. GFS TIME-HEIGHT MODEL OUTPUT ALSO
HINTS AT CLOUDS UNTIL 00Z THIS MORNING. SINCE THE TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK I COULD SEE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. THE
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE DO NOT REACH TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND AS A RESULT THE ZONES ARE SPLIT FOR THIS REASON.

ON TO THE SHEARLINE. LEFT FORECAST AS IS SINCE MODELS STILL ARE
NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON SHEARLINE PASSAGE THROUGH THE MARIANAS.
GFS STILL SHOWS THE SHEARLINE GOING SOUTH OF GUAM...ALBEIT IN A
WEAKER FORM. NGPS STILL ALLOWS THE SHEARLINE TO SAG ONLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS ANATAHAN. UKMET STILL DOES NOT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH BUT
SHOWS IT NORTH OF SAIPAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HINTS AT THE
SHEARLINE MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS GUAM. WITH ALL THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS DID NOT WANT TO TAMPER WITH THE FORECAST
SINCE IT IS ANYBODIES GUESS AS TO IF THE SHEARLINE WILL MAKE IT.

&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE HERE. TRADE-WIND INDUCED EAST SWELL AND A NORTH
SWELL REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WEAK IMPULSES TRAVELING ALONG AXIS OF CONVERGING TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA. HAVE KEPT
SCATTERED POPS IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.
THEREAFTER MAIN CONVERGENCE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. THOUGH ON SUNDAY...GFS PROGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP FOR
KOSRAE. FURTHER TO THE EAST...EXPECT MAJURO TO ENCOUNTER STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE THROUGH SATURDAY...OWING TO THE FORECAST INCREASED POPS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORIES CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MAJURO AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
APPEARS THAT KOROR WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY AS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH KEEPS REGION UNSTABLE. OVER YAP...A
DRIER PATTERN WILL NEGATE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME. APPENDED
PRECIP TO CHUUK FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO NORTHWARD
SHIFT OF THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF AFOREMENTIONED AXIS OF
CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THIS TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...STABLE...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD AND SCOUR
OUT ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY...KEEPING WEATHER FAVORABLE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/LEE

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