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Date: Wed, 09 Jan 2008 13:46:19 -0600
From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas
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906
FXPQ60 PGUM 091946
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
546 AM CHST THU JAN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...RADAR DISPLAYS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER GUAM AND ADJACENT
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE ON-GOING SHOWER ACTIVITY
EAST AND SOUTH OF GUAM THIS MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO
INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ISLAND OF GUAM AND COASTAL WATERS.
AUTOMATED WEATHER SENSORS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN GUAM RECEIVED OVER
ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION SINCE MID-NIGHT. GFS HINTS THAT MOST OF
THIS SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL BE CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
OVER THE ISLAND OF GUAM. IT WILL BE A QUIET WEEKEND AS TRADE WIND
REGIME DOMINATES LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KEPT
MOST OF THE GRIDS UNTOUCHED EXCEPT FOR WEATHER AND POPS FOR THE
FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS WW3 DATA...THEREFORE KEPT THE SWELLS
UNTOUCHED. EXPECT TRADE-WIND GENERATED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RIP
RISK CURRENT AT MODERATE LEVEL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND SURGE NOW AFFECTING THE EASTERN MICRONESIAN ISLANDS
EXCEPT POHNPEI. MOST OF THE CONVERGENCE SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF
POHNPEI SO CHANGED THE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED THERE.

GLOBAL WAVE WATCH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE COMBINED SEAS THAT
WILL BREACH HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS FOR ALL EASTERN LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND ADVISORIES
WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
SOUTH OF YAP CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER YAP AND PALAU FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FURTHER TO THE EAST...A WEAK IMPULSE THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS FAILED
TO RESOLVE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR CHUUK
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE CHUUK WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE TRADE
SURGE TO RULE OUT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

BAQUI/STANKO

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