Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -080940 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 08 Nov 1996 09:40:49 -0600

ZCZC DD+ 81424
WTPN32 PGTW 081500
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNIE (37W) WARNING NR 017
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z1 --- 14.2N7 118.4E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N7 118.4E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.0N6 117.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 15.6N2 117.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 16.4N1 117.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 17.4N2 117.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 19.1N1 118.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION 14.4N9  118.3E3
TROPICAL STORM ERNIE (37W), IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, HAS
MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS.  SYSTEM CENTER HAS
BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN NIGHT-TIME INFRARED
IMAGERY AND POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR.  WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A 081009Z KGWC MICROWAVE
FIX (DMSP), A 081130Z PGTW INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY FIX,
AND ANIMATED INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY.  WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON SYNOPTIC SHIP DATA TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  TS ERNIE (37W) IS
INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 39W, CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER LUZON ISLAND IN THE PHILIPPINES.  MERGER OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS IS ANTICPATED.  GENERALLY NORTHWARD (OR
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD) MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEMS
INTERACT. LONG-TERM INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED.
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION UP THE TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 101200Z AND 111200Z AS TYPHOON DALE
(36W), IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, RECURVES. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z1 (DTG 081957Z0), 090300Z2 (DTG 090157Z2),
090900Z8 (DTG 090757Z8) AND 091500Z5 (DTG 091357Z5).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. REFER TO TYPHOON DALE (36W) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 39W WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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