Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -040103 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 04 Nov 1996 01:03:55 -0600

ZCZC DD+ 43121
ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/040600Z/050600ZNOV96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/031753ZNOV96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/040555ZNOV96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7N7 138E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5N5 132E6 AND IS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B
(TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 040630))
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8N8 150E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N9 152E8 AND IS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF A
(TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 031800))
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 23N5
173E1.  SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
CONVECTION TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
TROUGH EXISTS WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/MCELROY/MEST/PUGH//

NNNN

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