Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -040126 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Oct 1996 01:26:18 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 36224
ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/040600Z /050600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/031353Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 031200Z6 TROPICAL STORM ZANE (29W) WAS
LOCATED AT 31.8N2 155.8E9, MOVING EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL STORM ZANE (29W)
WARNING NR 39 (WTPN32 PGTW 031500)) FOR FINAL WARNING
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 8N8 148E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N9 143E8. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AND A FEW LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES MOVING INTO
THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SIDE. SYNOPTIC DATA DOES NOT
INDICATE WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION EXISTS OR NOT, BUT
DOES SUPPORT THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 21N3 123E6 HAS WEAKENED AND LEFT BEHIND A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION NEAR 23N5 123E6. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A CIRCULATION EXISTS WITHIN A WEAK
TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME, BUT IT MAY BUILD OVERNIGHT
DURING DIURNAL MAXIMUM DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO
THE TROUGH AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 21N3
132E6. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK CIRCULATION ALONG THE SAME TROUGH AXIS
AT THE SUSPECT AREA LISTED IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(2) ABOVE.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN WITH THE SUSPECT AREA LISTED
ABOVE, BUT STILL NOT VERY DEEP OR EXTENSIVE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 6S6
157E3. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A
WEAK CIRCULATION MAY HAVE SPUN UP NORTHEAST OF THE
SOLOMON ISLANDS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TROUGH IS
NOT YET VERY ACTIVE OR DEEP BUT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: KUBAT/HAM/BOYD//

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