Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -170114 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 17 Aug 1996 01:14:13 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 61333
WTPN21 PGTW 170600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 170549Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N2
134.7E5 TO 16.8N5 129.4E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  METSAT IMAGERY
AND  SYNOPTIC DATA AT 170330Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N1 133.3E0.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  WATER-
VAPOR WINDS COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN AND
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WHICH IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 180600Z5.//

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