Subject: Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Nov 1996 01:24:45 -0600

554
WTPS31 PGTW 250900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z3 --- 18.3S2 160.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 160.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 19.1S1 160.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 20.0S2 160.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 20.8S0 161.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 21.4S7 161.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION 18.5S4  160.5E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
APPROXIMATELY 05 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED AND
THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT TC 06P FROM RE-INTENSIFYING,
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0
(DTG 251951Z3) AND 260900Z7 (DTG 260751Z1). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 13 FEET.//

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