Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -221536 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 22 Aug 1996 15:36:43 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 73296
WTPN32 PGTW 222100
1. TROPICAL STORM ORSON (19W) WARNING NR 005 RELOCATED
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ORSON (19W)
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z3 --- 23.1N6 143.0E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N6 143.0E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 23.7N2 143.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 24.3N9 143.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 24.8N4 143.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 25.3N0 143.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 25.6N3 144.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION 23.3N8  143.0E8
TROPICAL STORM ORSON (19W) IS UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INTENSITY. IT IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTH AT
APPROXIMATELY 2 KNOTS OR LESS. TS ORSON LIES WITHIN A
REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH. OUR FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED DUE TO THE EXTREMELY WEAK
STEERING FLOW PRESENT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT TS ORSON WILL
MOVE UP THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST VERY SLOWLY.
ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IS FORMING TO THE EAST OF TS
ORSON AND THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY TREND OF TS
ORSON DEPENDS HIGHLY ON OUR INTERPRETATION OF FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS OTHER SYSTEM. NUMERICAL FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS OTHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE
FORWARD MOTION OF TS ORSON SLOW AND COMPETE WITH TS ORSON
FOR THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW NEEDED FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (DTG
230155Z6), 230900Z4 (DTG 230755Z2), 231500Z1 (DTG
231355Z9) AND 232100Z8 (DTG 231955Z5). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER
TO TYPHOON NIKI WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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