Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -030603 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 03 Aug 1996 06:03:49 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 57039
WTPN21 PGTW 031100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 031051Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/030021Z AUG 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
030030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.8N5 134.2E0 TO 23.0N5
132.0E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 030830Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N2 133.9E6.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THE MONSOON DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SHIFT ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE ORGANIZING NEAR 18N9 133E7 WHICH PLACES THE
SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF THE PREVIOUS TCFA BOX. THIS IS THE JUSTIFICATION
FOR THE REISSUANCE OF THE TCFA. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE REGION
CONTINUES TO BE GOOD WITH MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
BT
#7841

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