Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -050025 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Oct 1996 00:25:54 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 35064
ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/050600Z /060600Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 16N7
149E4. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS
AREA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120NM WEST OF THE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS VISIBLE WITHIN THE CONVECTION ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, BOTH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND AVAILABLE
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY
WITHIN AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1011 MB. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 6N6
159E5. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A
WEAK MONSOONAL LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AREA EXIST PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 9N9 143E8 HAS WEAKENED. A WEAK 1008MB MONSOONAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA REMAINS NEAR 8N8 141E6 AND IS ANALYZED IN
BOTH THE SYNOPTIC DATA AND WEAKLY IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
LINES; HOWEVER, HIGHER PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE BUILDING IN
OVER THE AREA AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
A DRYING TENDENCY IN THIS REGION. THIS AREA IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT.
(4) THE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR 23N5
123E6 HAS DISSIPATED UNDER A STRONG PUSH FROM A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND SHEAR ZONE THAT MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT.
      (5) THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21N3 132E6 HAS WEAKENED UNDER THE
SAME PUSH FROM THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN PARAGRAPH
1.B.(4) ABOVE. THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT.
      (6) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6S6 157E3 HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER SHOWS ANY SIGN OF
ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SMALL LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE AREA, IT APPEARS TO BE
UNRELATED TO THE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. THIS
AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/BOGLE/PUGH//

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