Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -090332 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 09 Aug 1996 03:32:17 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 60337
WTPN31 PGTW 090900
1. TYPHOON KIRK (13W) WARNING NR 023
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z5 --- 25.2N9 132.3E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N9 132.3E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 25.3N0 131.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 25.2N9 131.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 25.2N9 130.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 25.1N8 129.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 25.6N3 127.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION 25.2N9  132.1E7
TYPHOON KIRK (13W) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS. IT HAS CONTINUED
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED OF
MOTION IS DUE PRIMARILY TO STEERING FLOW INDUCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS, ONCE AGAIN DIMINISHING THE FORCE OF THE STEERING FLOW,
WHICH IS WHY OUR FORECAST IS FOR FORWARD MOTION TO DECREASE TO 2
KNOTS AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHTLY
GREATER STEERING FLOW SHOULD RESUME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BRINGING FORWARD MOTION BACK UP TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. TY KIRK
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS INHIBITED INTENSIFICATION OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST WEEK IS DIMINISHING, AND STRONGER CONVECTION IS
ENHANCING SYSTEM OUTFLOW ALOFT FURTHER DECREASING THE INHIBITING
EFFECT OF THE WIND SHEAR. THUS TY KIRK SHOULD INTENSIFY AT OR VERY
NEAR TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE (APPROXIMATELY 1 DVORAK T-NUMBER PER
DAY). NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9), 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z
100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8) AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100751Z4). MAXIMUM SEAS AT
090600Z ARE 35 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.//

NNNN