Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -201822 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 20 Aug 1996 18:22:08 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 81136
WTPN22 PGTW 202300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 202259Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.7N6
143.4E2 TO 24.0N6 141.3E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
201830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7N7 143.2E0.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED WITHIN A REVERSE-ORIENTED (SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST) MONSOON TROUGH, AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 212300Z8.
//

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