Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -131535 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 1996 15:35:37 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 73165
WTPN31 PGTW 132100
1. TROPICAL STORM ABEL (30W) WARNING NR 012
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- 20.2N4 115.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N4 115.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 21.0N3 114.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 21.9N2 113.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 23.4N9 112.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 24.4N0 111.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION 20.4N6  115.3E0
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM ABEL (30W) HAS
TRACKED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE EVEN THOUGH TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY. ALL OF OUR OBJECTIVE FORECAST AIDS STILL
CONVERGE ON HONG KONG IN 24 TO 30 HOURS AND THEN DIVERGE
AFTER 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF
OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT THAT WE HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY AND DECREASED THE INTENSIFICATION
RATE DUE TO EXPECTED SHEAR. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
A 13/1730Z DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 TO 40 KNOTS). MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 994 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4),
140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0), 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7) AND
142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 31W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION  32W WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN

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