Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -010015 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 01 Nov 1996 00:15:50 -0600

ZCZC DD+ 88607
ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/010600Z/020600Z NOV 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 8N8 148E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6N6 144E9. THE
CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISSIPATED AND ORGANIZATION IS
MINIMAL; THEREFORE THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 14N5
162E9. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE END
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PRESENT
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF
THIS CONVECTION, AND THIS IS TOO DISTANT FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR SOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 11N2
117E9. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX (MCC) HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER THE PHILIPPINES FOR THE
PAST 48 HOURS AND THIS CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CIRCULATION. SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
HAS DROPPED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND THE CIRCULATION
MAY BE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PHILLIPINE ARCHIPELAGO
TOWARDS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
FAIR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: KUBAT/HAM/BOGLE//

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