Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -272129 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 27 Sep 1996 21:29:55 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 60092
WTPN32 PGTW 280300
1. TYPHOON ZANE (29W) WARNING NR 017
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z0 --- 22.8N2 125.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N2 125.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 23.6N1 125.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 24.5N1 125.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            200 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 25.3N0 126.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            205 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 26.1N9 127.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            200 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 27.7N6 131.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            185 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION 23.0N5  125.4E2
TYPHOON ZANE (28W) IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS. IT IS
IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING BUT HAS CONTINUED
MOVING AT THE SAME SPEED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. NEITHER
RADAR NOR SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THIS SYSTEM HAS MADE
AN EASTWARD TURN YET. WE ANTICIPATE TY ZANE TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND THE
WEAK INDUCED RIDGING TO ITS EAST. BY 36 HOURS THIS SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHERN
END OF THE INDUCED RIDGE AND START TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF TY ZANE HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO ACCENTUATE SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF TY ZANE, AND
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS QUICKER
ONSET OF PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCED WINDS. OTHERWISE THIS
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 (DTG 280753Z5), 281500Z6 (DTG
281353Z2), 282100Z3 (DTG 281953Z8) AND 290300Z4 (DTG
290153Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS
25 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. REFER TO TYPHOON YATES (28W) (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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