Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -180439 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 18 Aug 1996 04:39:07 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 71811
WTPN22 PGTW 180930 COR
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180921Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/172223Z AUG 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW
172230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N3
148.8E1 TO 15.8N4 139.8E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
180830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N4 147.8E0.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED EAST OF THE MARIANAS
CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO BE POOR BUT THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS CLEARLY DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE.
MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 190930Z2.//

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