Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -141444 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 1996 14:44:23 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 63352
WTPN32 PGTW 142100
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WARNING NR 007
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- 17.3N1 145.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N1 145.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 18.0N9 144.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 18.8N7 143.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 19.6N6 141.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION 17.5N3  145.3E3
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W HAS
TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING UNDER
INCREASING NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AS A FULLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST 02 HOURS INDICATES A FEW SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE VERY TIGHT LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND TD 31W HAS HAD A LONG HISTORY OF
SURVIVING STRONG SHEAR CONDITIONS. TD 31W IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN 24
TO 36 HOURS WHICH MAY FAVOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT
THAT TIME. UNTIL THEN, WE ANTICIPATE THE USUAL CONVECTIVE
FLARE-UPS WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS SYSTEM AS A 25 TO
30 KNOTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5
(DTG 150755Z3) AND 152100Z9 (DTG 151955Z6) IF THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER ANTICIPATES THAT THIS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, THEN A
STANDARD 72 HOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE, 36 HOUR TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNINGS WILL BE
UPDATED EVERY 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION  30W (ABEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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