Subject: Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 24 Nov 1996 18:48:40 -0600

606
WTPS31 PGTW 242100 AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 004A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z5 --- 17.6S4 161.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 161.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 18.0S9 161.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 18.7S6 161.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 19.3S3 162.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 20.0S2 164.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION 17.7S5  161.4E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (CYRIL) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT
APPROXIMATELY 02 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS AMENDED DUE TO A
SIGNIFICANT REPOSITIONING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHEARED THE
DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND
THIS WAS NOT IDENTIFIED UNTIL CONFIRMED BY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT LOCATION IS HIGH. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WE ANTICIPATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE ADDITIONAL FACTOR OF COOL OCEAN
WATER SHOULD ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO THIS WEAKENING TREND.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG 250751Z0) AND 252100Z0
(DTG 251951Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z5 IS 14 FEET.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.