Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -160114 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 1996 01:14:48 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 10535
ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/160600Z /170600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/151951Z OCT 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/160153Z OCT 96//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/160155Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 151800Z5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (ABEL) WAS
LOCATED AT 14.9N4 111.1E4, MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A ((TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 30W (ABEL) WARNING NR 18 (WTPN31 PGTW 152100))
AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) AT 160000Z7 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WAS LOCATED
AT 20.5N7 142.2E9, MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W
WARNING NR 10 (WTPN32 PGTW 160300)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (3) AT 160000Z7 TROPICAL STORM BETH (32W) WAS
LOCATED AT 17.9N7 127.6E6, MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF C (TROPICAL STORM BETH (32W)
WARNING NR 11 (WTPN33 PGTW 160300)) AND SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 9N9 148E3 HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT.
  (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12N3 176E4 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 11N2
132E6.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF
CONVECTION IN THIS AREA, HOWEVER SYNOPTIC DATA AND VISUAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ONLY SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXIST
IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO TROPICAL STORM BETH
(32W) TO THE NORTH. WINDS DERIVED FROM WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THERE IS A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THIS AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/MCELROY/MEST/PUGH//

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