Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -230111 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 23 Sep 1996 01:11:18 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 83552
ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/230600Z/240600Z SEP 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/230157Z SEP 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/230153Z SEP 96//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/230151Z SEP 96//
REF/D/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/230555Z SEP 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 230000Z5 TYPHOON VIOLET (26W) WAS LOCATED AT
41.5N0 146.7E8, MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 080 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TYPHOON VIOLET (26W)
WARNING NR 044 (WTPN33 PGTW 230300)) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) AT 230000Z5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (WILLIE)
WAS LOCATED AT 18.0N9 104.3E8, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 27W (WILLIE)WARNING NR 022 (WTPN32 PGTW
230300)) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) AT 230000Z5 TROPICAL STORM YATES (28W) WAS
LOCATED AT 15.9N5 157.1E4, MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF C (TROPICAL STORM
YATES (28W) WARNING NR 02 (WTPN31 PGTW 230300)) AND SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
   (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
 (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5N5 145E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N9 144.6E5. ENHANCED
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SEVERAL CONVERGING
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WERE NOTED SPIRALING INTO THE
SYSTEM CENTER AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS
DEVELOPED ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD AND THIS SYSTEM IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF D (WTPN22 PGTW
230600) FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
      (2) AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR
MORE THAN 12 HOURS NEAR 08N8 171.5E4 OR ABOUT 180 NM EAST
OF KWAJALEIN. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED BENEATH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR DUE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.
      (3) AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS NEAR 09.5N4 126.5E4. SYNOPTIC AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CO-LOCATED BENEATH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED
ANTICYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR DUE
TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CARLE/STEWART/WOFFORD/BOGLE/PUGH//

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