Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -110637 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 11 Sep 1996 06:37:55 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 70272
WTPN23 PGTW 111100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 111051Z SEP 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/102021Z SEP 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
102030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N2
132.3E9 TO 17.5N3 124.8E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 110900Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N4 131.0E5. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT IN A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MONSOON TROUGH FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS.
SYNOPTIC DATA SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MINIMAL UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 121100Z5.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT LOCATED NEAR 12.1N4 153.1E0.//

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