Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -101045 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 1996 10:45:37 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 67388
WTPN22 PGTW 101530
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 101521Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/100729Z OCT 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
100730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N2
131.9E4 TO 20.2N4 128.6E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
151235Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.8N5 131.5E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND CONCENTRATE NEAR
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS DEPICTED BY SYNOPTIC
SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WHICH IS ALSO THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 100730).  BOTH OF THESE CIRCULATIONS
ARE LOCATED BENEATH DIFFLUENT, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW; HOWEVER,
WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE AN ORGANIZED
ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN MOST
CIRCULATION (THE SUBJECT OF THIS TCFA), WHICH FAVORS
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 111530Z1.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT LOCATED NEAR 13.0N4 126.0E9//

NNNN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.