Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -302131 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 30 Aug 1996 21:31:29 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 47194
WTPN32 PGTW 310300
1. TROPICAL STORM ORSON (19W) WARNING NR 038
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310000Z4 --- 29.1N2 145.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            185 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.1N2 145.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 29.8N9 143.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            190 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 30.4N7 142.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            195 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 31.8N2 141.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            195 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 33.5N1 142.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            190 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 37.1N1 144.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            190 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION 29.3N4  144.7E6
TROPICAL STORM ORSON (19W) IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
OF TS ORSON HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY. IT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND
IT WILL LIKELY REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN BY
01/0000Z1 SEP. WE HAVE SEVERAL NUMERICAL FORECAST MODELS
AVAILABLE WHICH INDICATE TS ORSON SHOULD INTENSIFY, BUT
RECURVE BEFORE IT REACHES HONSHU. NONE OF OUR AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
REACH HONSHU, ALTHOUGH STATISTICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE IT MAY
COME CLOSE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 (DTG 310755Z1),
311500Z0 (DTG 311355Z8), 312100Z7 (DTG 311955Z4) AND
010300Z4 (DTG 010155Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310000Z4 IS 19 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 22W (RICK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN