Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -282053 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 28 Sep 1996 20:53:16 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 53751
WTPN32 PGTW 290300
1. TYPHOON ZANE (29W) WARNING NR 021
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z1 --- 26.4N2 126.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            200 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N2 126.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 27.7N6 128.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            190 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 28.7N7 130.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            180 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 29.6N7 133.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            180 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 30.4N7 136.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            180 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 32.1N6 145.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            180 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 26.7N5  126.8E7
TYPHOON ZANE (29W) IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS. RADAR DATA OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS INDICATE THAT
IT HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE TRACK IT HAD BEEN
FOLLOWING FOR THE PREVIOUS THREE TO SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS IS DUE TO THE INDUCED
RIDGE BETWEEN TY ZANE AND TY YATES (28W) SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH DURING THIS TIME. BECAUSE OF THIS SHIFT IT
IS LIKELY THAT TY ZANE WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH BEFORE
MAKING THE EASTWARD TURN AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO
STAY NORTH OF OKINAWA. THE LIKELIHOOD OF EYE PASSAGE IS
THUS REDUCED OVER OKINAWA BUT INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN
RYUKYU ISLANDS SUCH AS AMAMI, TOKUNO, AND OKINO ISLANDS.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, TY
ZANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SHARP ENOUGH TURN TOWARD THE
EAST BY 24 HOURS TO REMAIN SEAWARD OF THE MAIN JAPANESE
ISLANDS OF HONSHU, SHIKOKU, AND KYUSHU. DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE INDUCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TY ZANE
AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL NORTH OF JAPAN STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6), 291500Z7 (DTG
291353Z3), 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9) AND 300300Z6 (DTG
300153Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS
24 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. REFER TO TYPHOON YATES (28W) WARNIGNS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN