Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -190115 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 19 Aug 1996 01:15:32 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 75471
ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/190600Z/200600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/190153Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) TROPICAL STORM NIKI (18W) HAS BEEN UPGRADED
FROM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT 190000Z0 TROPICAL STORM
NIKI WAS LOCATED AT 17.4N2 125.6E4, MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A ((WTPN31 PGTW 190300) TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NR
05) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15N6 150E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16N6 145E0. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE
DISORGANIZED; HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CONTINUES TO BE CLEARLY DEFINED.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
28N0 174E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28N0 168E5. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK, LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8N8 114E6 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT.
      (4) THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 31N4 139E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29N1 139E3.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HINDERING
THE SYSTEM=S DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (5) SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N7 139E3. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (6) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 20N2
170E8. SYNOPTIC DATA, SCATTEROMETRY, AND ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (7) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: KALAFSKY/DEOCARIZA/BOYD//

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