Subject: Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 09:25:57 -0600

034
WTPS21 PGTW 221500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 221451Z NOV 96//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA
SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1S2
159.8E3 TO 12.7S0 162.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 221200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2 159.9E4. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
BOTH ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE
SOLOMON ISLANDS JUST SOUTH OF GUADALCANAL AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE
SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM THE SOLOMONS AT 221200Z ALSO
SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS
HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT SAN CRISTOBAL IN THE SOLOMONS AS OF 221200Z.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR ARE PRESENT ALOFT. THE LEVEL OF CONVECTION WAS
INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 231500Z1.//

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