Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -170125 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 17 Aug 1996 01:25:05 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 81950
ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/170600Z/180600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/170549Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:  NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11N2 137E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14N5 135E9. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER VAPOR-DERIVED UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OF THE DISTURBANCE,
WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 170600)) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15N6 161E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15N6 157E3. CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AT APPROXIMATELY 16/1200Z
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TD 17W IS LOCATED NEAR 26N8 179E7. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK, LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 8N8
112E4. THE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK, LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SUPPORTED BY
SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: KALAFSKY/MCELROY/DEOCARIZA/BOYD//

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