Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -131326 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 1996 13:26:18 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 79074
ABPW10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/131800Z /140600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/131351Z OCT 96//
REF/B/RMG/NACPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/131353Z OCT 96//
REF/C/RMG/NACPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/131355Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 131200Z7 TROPICAL STORM ABEL (30W) WAS
LOCATED AT 19.9N9 116.1E9, MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A ((TROPICAL STORM ABEL
(30W)) WARNING NR 11 (WTPN31 PGTW 131500)) AND SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) AT 131200Z7 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WAS LOCATED
AT 14.0N5 150.3E9, DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W)
WARNING NR 02 (WTPN32 PGTW 131500)) AND SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (3) AT 131200Z7 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W WAS LOCATED
AT 15.5N1 133.2E9, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS. SEE REF C (TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W) WARNING NR
01 (WTPN33 PGTW 131500)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 14N5 141E6 HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
32W.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 15N6 150E6 HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
31W.
(3) AN AREA OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY NEAR 8N8 170E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 07N7 163E0.
13/12Z SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED BENEATH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND HAS EVOLVED INTO A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
WITH NUMEROUS CLOUD TOPS OF -88 TO -91C NOTED, AND THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE RE-ISSUANCE OF THIS ADVISORY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (4) AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR
MORE THAN 18 HOURS NEAR 11N2 172E0. 13/12Z SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BENEATH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/HAM/BOYD//

NNNN

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