Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -161529 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 16 Sep 1996 15:29:56 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 99056
WTPN33 PGTW 162100
1. TYPHOON VIOLET (26W) WARNING NR 019
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- 20.9N1 127.2E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            165 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N1 127.2E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 22.0N4 127.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 23.5N0 128.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 25.1N8 129.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 26.3N1 130.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 28.6N6 134.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION 21.2N5  127.4E4
TYPHOON VIOLET (26W) IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT APPROXIMATELY
07 KNOTS. IT HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TY VIOLET APPROACHES THE INDUCED
RIDGE TO ITS EAST THE SOUTHERLY STEERING COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE, RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHWARD
MOTION BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS TY VIOLET
IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO MAKE A
NORTHEASTWARD TURN AROUND THE RIDGE. WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING
115 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK CI 6.0). WIND RADII AT WARNING
TIME ARE A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC DATA, MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSM/I) ANALYSIS PROVIDED BY AFGWC (16/09Z), AND
SCATTEROMETRY (16/14Z). NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG
170157Z1), 170900Z7 (DTG 170757Z7), 171500Z4 (DTG
171357Z4) AND 172100Z1 (DTG 171957Z0). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 29 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER
TO TYPHOON TOM (25W) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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