Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -080121 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 08 Oct 1996 01:21:17 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 51273
WTPN21 PGTW 080600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080551Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/070551Z OCT 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
070600)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N7
141.6E2 TO 11.5N7 134.9E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
080430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N2 140.3E8.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THE BROAD TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT IS MOVING TOWARD
ULITHI AND YAP AND SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM MAY BE CONSOLIDATING TOWARD THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER, BUT OVERALL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING
DIURNAL MINIMUM. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 090600Z5.//

NNNN

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