Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -052057 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 05 Sep 1996 20:57:44 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 84333
WTPN31 PGTW 060300
1. TROPICAL STORM SALLY (23W) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- 15.6N2 132.0E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N2 132.0E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 16.3N0 130.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 16.8N5 128.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 17.4N2 126.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 17.7N5 124.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            180 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 17.9N7 121.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION 15.8N4  131.6E1
TROPICAL STORM SALLY (23W) IS INTENSIFYING QUICKLY IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
OUR WARNING INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING A RANGE OF 45 TO 55 KNOT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK T3.0 TO T3.5). CURRENT
WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF CLOUD
FEATURES ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. VERY
LITTLE SYNOPTIC DATA AND NO SCATTEROMETRY OR MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY (SSM/I) WAS AVAILABLE TO REFINE OUR
WIND RADII ESTIMATES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE IS FORMING, WHICH
SUPPORTS OUR FORECAST OF REACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THIS
SAME TREND. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9),
061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6), 062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2) AND
070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z2 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//

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