Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -161339 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 1996 13:39:14 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 73654
ABPW10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/161800Z /170600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/151951Z OCT 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/160153Z OCT 96//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/160155Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 151800Z5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (ABEL) WAS
LOCATED AT 14.9N4 111.1E4, MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A ((TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 30W (ABEL) WARNING NR 18 (WTPN31 PGTW 152100))
AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) AT 161200Z0 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WAS LOCATED
AT 21.9N2 141.7E3, MOVING NORTH AT 07 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WARNING NR
11 (WTPN32 PGTW 161500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
     (3) AT 161200Z0 TROPICAL STORM BETH (32W) WAS
LOCATED AT 17.5N3 126.2E1, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF C (TROPICAL STORM
BETH (32W) WARNING NR 13 (WTPN33 PGTW 161500)) AND SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED ACROSS THE
DATELINE AND IS LOCATED NEAR 6.0N6 179.0E7. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
AND MODERATE SPEED CONVERGENCE BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER, ANIMATION OF SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SOME BROAD, WEAK CYCLONIC ROTATION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE PAST 3 NAVY NOGAPS MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THIS IS THE
REASON FOR RE-ISSUANCE OF THIS ADVISORY. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (2) AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS MOVED ACROSS
THE DATELINE AND IS LOCATED NEAR 8.2N0 175.5E8. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND MODERATE SPEED CONVERGENCE BENEATH UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY
NEAR 11N2 132E6 HAS REORGANIZED NEAR 6.0N6 139.0E. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BENEATH MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO
IMPINGING ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/MILLER/HONG//

NNNN

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