Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -010315 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 01 Sep 1996 03:15:29 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 10107
WTPN32 PGTW 010900
1. TYPHOON ORSON (19W) WARNING NR 043
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z7 --- 31.4N8 143.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.4N8 143.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 33.3N9 143.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 35.5N3 145.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 38.0N1 148.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 40.5N9 153.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 43.3N0 164.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION 31.9N3  143.2E0
TYPHOON ORSON (19W) IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT APPROXIMATELY
06 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THE EYE OF TY ORSON HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS FOR TY ORSON TO
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND THEN TURN NORTHEAST. ALL OF OUR AVAILABLE
OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREE WITH OUR FORECAST
TRACK. AS TY ORSON MOVES NORTH OF THE RIDGE IT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. NEAR THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION TY ORSON
SHOULD BEGIN TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY
04/0000Z4 SEP, WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO SUSTAIN GALE
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE TRANSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011500Z7 (DTG 011355Z5), 012100Z4 (DTG 011955Z1),
020300Z5 (DTG 020155Z3) AND 020900Z1 (DTG 020751Z5).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 28 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (RICK)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW 311500) FOR DETAILS ON
THE OTHER ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE.//

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