Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -270109 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 27 Sep 1996 01:09:51 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 43941
ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/270600Z/280600Z SEP 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/270151Z SEP 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/270153Z SEP 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
       (1) AT 270000Z9 TYPHOON YATES (28W) WAS LOCATED AT
18.9N8 141.2E8, MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TYPHOON YATES (28W)
WARNING NR 18 (WTPN31 PGTW 270300)) AND SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
       (2) AT 270000Z09 TYPHOON ZANE (29W) WAS LOCATED AT
21.0N3 126.5E4, MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
130 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TYPHOON ZANE (29W) WARNING NR 13
(WTPN32 PGTW 270300)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
   (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 9.0N9 179.9E6 HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY AND
IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT.
      (2) THE BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH PREVIOUSLY EXTENDING FROM 9.5N4
128.5E6 EASTWARD TO 13.0N4 133.5E2 TO 14.5N0 147.0E2 TO
16.0N7 157.03 NOW EXTENDS FROM 10.0N1 127.0E0 TO 12.0N3
137.0E1 TO 19.0N 149.0N4. LOW-LEVEL/GRADIENT (3000 FT)
ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS CONVERGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS NEAR TYPHOONS YATES (28) AND ZANE (29W). TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS; THEREFORE, THIS REGION IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT, BUT WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS
THE TWO TYPHOONS MOVE FURTHER NORTHWARD.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 10N1
110E9. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
CONVECTION IS UNORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CARLE/WOFFORD/BOGLE/PUGH

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