Subject: Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 1996 08:22:57 -0600

612
WTPS32 PGTW 241500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z9 --- 13.5S9 158.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 158.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 14.2S7 158.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            005 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 14.9S4 158.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 15.8S4 158.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 16.8S5 158.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION 13.7S1  158.8E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
SOLOMON ISLANDS AND TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO GAIN LATITUDE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED
BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 09 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 (DTG 250157Z0) AND 251500Z3
(DTG 251357Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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