Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -161517 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 1996 15:17:09 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 104158
WTPN33 PGTW 162100 PAA
1. TYPHOON BETH (32W) WARNING NR 014
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM BETH (32W)
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- 17.6N4 125.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT
 GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N4 125.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS
 VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 17.5N3 123.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT
 GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS
 VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 17.5N3 121.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT
 GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS
 VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 17.3N1 119.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT
 GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS
 VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 17.2N0 117.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT
 GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS
 VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 16.9N6 113.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT
 GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION 17.6N4  124.7E4
TROPICAL STORM BETH HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD COURSE AND
INTENSIFIED INTO TYPHOON BETH (32W) DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS. AN INTERMITTENT CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 16/1730Z DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 TO 70 KNOTS) ARE
THE REASONS FOR OUR INCREASE TO TYPHOON INTENSITY.
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS WHILE
THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS REMAINED STEADY.
COLD OVERSHOOTING TOPS OF -86 TO -88C WERE STILL NOTED IN
THE EYEWALL WHICH SUGGESTS CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
LIKELY BEFORE TYPHOON BETH MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON NEAR DIVALACAN BAY IN ABOUT 18
HOURS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 976
MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170155Z9)
 170900Z7
(DTG 170755Z5)

NNNN

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