Subject: Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Dec 1996 08:03:23 -0600

725
WTPS32 PGTW 251500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z0 --- 10.8S9 159.6E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            005 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 159.6E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 10.7S8 161.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 11.8S0 163.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 13.2S6 164.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 14.8S3 165.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION 10.8S9  160.0E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) HAS MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
IN THE SOLOMON SEA, NEAR GUADALCANAL ISLAND. FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND ACCELERATE IN ITS FORWARD MOTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG 260157Z1) AND 261500Z4 (DTG
261357Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  12P WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

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