Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -150103 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 1996 01:03:43 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 63365
ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/150600Z /160600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/141951Z OCT 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/141953Z OCT 96//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/150155Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 141800Z4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (ABEL)WAS
LOCATED AT 18.1N0 113.0E5, MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A ((TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 30W (ABEL) WARNING NR 16 (WTPN31 PGTW 142100))
AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) AT 141800Z4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WAS LOCATED
AT 17.3N1 145.6E6, MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W
WARNING NR 07 (WTPN32 PGTW 142100)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (3) AT 150000Z6 TROPICAL STORM BETH (32W) WAS
LOCATED AT 16.9N6 130.2E6, MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF C (TROPICAL STORM BETH (32W)
WARNING NR 07 (WTPN33 PGTW 140300)) AND SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 8N8 155E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N9 148E3.
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A WEK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZATION WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
 (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12N3 176E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12N3 168E5. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PRIMARILY CONVERGENCE IN THIS
AREA WHILE CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE
REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1011 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/MCELROY/MEST/PUGH//

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