Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -281426 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 1996 14:26:37 -0600

ZCZC DD+ 72425
WTPN21 PGTW 282030
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 282021Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/272021Z OCT 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
272030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.8N4
106.4E1 TO 9.0N9 100.6E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 281930Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.1N8 105.4E0.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. A 28/0251Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25
KNOTS. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF APPROXIMATELY 1004 MB. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
EQUATOR ARE HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN GOOD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 292030Z6.//

NNNN

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