Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -300936 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 1996 09:36:42 -0600

ZCZC DD+ 71175
WTPN31 PGTW 300900 COR
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z9 --- 11.1N3 100.8E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N3 100.8E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 12.1N4 99.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 13.1N5 98.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 14.2N7 96.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION 11.4N6  100.5E6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34W IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS. IT HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY, EVEN USING MULTISPECTRAL TECHNIQUES
(COMPUTER COMBINED VISIBLE AND INFRARED) AND ANIMATION.
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY (SSM/I) HAS NOT BEEN OF MUCH
USE EITHER DUE TO THE VERY WEAK NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AT VARIOUS OIL RIGS COURTEOUSLY
PROVIDED BY MARINE WEATHER SERVICES AND UNOCAL HAS BEEN
OF TREMENDOUS VALUE IN IDENTIFYING WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS AT. WE ALSO ANTICIPATE THAT ONE OF THE
NEXT DESCENDING PASSES FROM THE ERS-2 SATELLITE CARRYING
A SCATTEROMETER WILL COVER THIS AREA BY OUR NEXT WARNING
AND PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT THE STRUCTURE
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER
WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS. TD 34W IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO
THE BAY OF BENGAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN WHILE CROSSING THE BALAUKTAUNG RANGE
ON THE NORTHERN MALAY PENINSULA. AFTER EMERGING BACK OVER
WATER IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY REGAIN ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSIFY. NEXT WARNINGS AT, 302100Z6 (DTG 301957Z5), AND
310900Z3 (DTG 310757Z3). IF THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER ANTICIPATES THAT THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL
REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, THEN A STANDARD 72 HOUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE, 36
HOUR TROPICAL DEPRESSION WARNINGS WILL BE UPDATED EVERY
12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z9
IS 09 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. JUSTIFICATION FOR NEXT WARNING
TIMES.//

NNNN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.