Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -040049 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 04 Aug 1996 00:49:11 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 73207
ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN/040600Z/050600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/040153Z AUG 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/040151Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
        (1) AT 040000Z4 TROPICAL STORM JOY (12W) WAS LOCATED AT
32.8N3 155.6E7, MOVING NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL STORM JOY (12W) WARNING NR 24
(WTPN32 PGTW 040300)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 040000Z4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WAS LOCATED AT
22.2N6 132.6E2, MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE 13W WARNING
NR 02 (WTPN31 PGTW 040300)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
       (3)  NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
       (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4N7 136.14E1 IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
REFER TO PARAGRAPH 1.A.(2) ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 13W.
       (2)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR
08N8 119E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13N4 113E5. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A BAND OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT
CONVECTION LYING WEST THE PHILIPPINES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
       (3)  AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 24N6 178E6.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR ELEMENT DRIFT WINDS INDICATE THIS
TUTT CELL IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
CONVECTION. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS NOT YET BEEN
DETECTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETRY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1012 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: KUBAT/HAM/UROGI//

BT
#7852

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