Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -210124 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 21 Aug 1996 01:24:49 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 37187
ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/210600Z/220600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/210153Z AUG 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/202259Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 210000Z3 TYPHOON NIKI (18W) WAS LOCATED AT
17.2N0 114.1E7, MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90
KNOTS. SEE REF A ((WTPN31 PGTW 210300) TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING NR 13) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18N9 143E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20N2 143E8 AND IS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B
(TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION  ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 202300))
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
26N8 164E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25N7 162E9.  THIS AREA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL, WHICH EXTENDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ISOLATED TO THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ALTHOUGH DEEPER CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO FORM NEAR THE CIRCULATION=S CENTER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
25N7 172E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28N0 171E9. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DECREASED CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(4)  AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 27N9
134E8. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED NEAR THE SYSTEM=S CENTER OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: TREHUBENKO/MEST/BOGLE/HONG//

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