Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -191432 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 1996 14:32:03 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 9567
WTPN33 PGTW 192100
1. TYPHOON BETH (32W) WARNING NR 026
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z9 --- 18.8N7 115.5E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N7 115.5E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 18.4N3 113.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 18.0N9 111.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 17.3N1 109.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 16.5N2 108.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 15.1N7 104.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION 18.7N6  115.0E7
TYPHOON BETH HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AND WEAKENED DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS
DECREASED  IN AREAL COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT AS TY
BETH (32W) HAS CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
POSSIBLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW
REMAINS FAIR TO GOOD, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. A
NEW CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 03 HOURS AND THIS IS THE
REASON WE ARE RELUCTANT TO TAKE BETH DOWN BELOW TYPHOON
INTENSITY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING AS BETH REMAINS ON TRACK.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 19/1730Z DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 976 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z5 (DTG 200155Z3), 200900Z1 (DTG 200755Z9),
201500Z8 (DTG 201355Z6) AND 202100Z5 (DTG 201955Z2).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. //

NNNN

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