Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -140914 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 Nov 1996 09:14:44 -0600

ZCZC DD+ 94844
WTPN32 PGTW 141500
1. TROPICAL STORM ERNIE (37W) WARNING NR 040
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z8 --- 13.1N5 112.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N5 112.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 12.1N4 110.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 11.3N5 108.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 10.8N9 107.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 10.6N7 105.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 10.3N4 102.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION 12.8N1  112.4E8
TROPICAL STORM ERNIE (37W) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TS ERNIE REMAINS A
SMALL SYSTEM AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IT HAS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY, WHICH INDICATES
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS ERNIE HAS LESSENED
SLIGHTLY. WE ARE FORECASTING A VERY SMALL INTENSIFICATION
OF TS ERNIE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL BASED ON THE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION OF CONVECTION, WHICH MAY RESULT IN WEAK
INTENSIFICATION. NIGHT TIME DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND AN OFFSHORE FLOW FROM SOUTHERN VIETNAM AT THAT TIME
MAY ALSO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE SYSTEM,
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK INTENSIFICATION PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY, AND
SOUTH OF, CAM RANH BAY, TS ERNIE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVERLAND WHILE PASSING IN THE VICINITY OF HO CHI MINH
CITY. IT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MEKONG DELTA REGION AND
REACH THE GULF OF THAILAND WITHIN 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD
REMAIN A DISSIPATING SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. IF TS ERNIE
MAKES LANDFALL FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE REGION COULD POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM WITHIN 36 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z8 (DTG 141957Z7), 150300Z9 (DTG 150157Z9),
150900Z5 (DTG 150757Z5) AND 151500Z2 (DTG 151357Z2).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 16 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.//

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