Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -120122 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 1996 01:22:05 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 87865
ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/120600Z /130600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/120151Z OCT 96//
REF/B/RMG/NACPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/120121Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 120000Z3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W WAS LOCATED
AT 17.5N3 118.7E7, MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 26 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W
WARNING NR 05 RELOCATED (WTPN31 PGTW 120300)) AND SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 16N7 144E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14N5 141E6. ANIMATED
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A
CLEARLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PRESENT.
CONVECTION IN THIS AREA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD. REFER TO REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
WTPN21 PGTW 120130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 10N1 154E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13N4 151E7. ANIMATED
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PRESENT BUT CONVECTION REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS PRESENT TO THE
EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: KALAFSKY/NICKLAS/DEOCARIZA/UROGI//

NNNN

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