Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -050014 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 05 Nov 1996 00:14:19 -0600

ZCZC DD+ 88379
WTPN23 PGTW 050600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 050551Z NOV 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.2N6
174.0E2 TO 28.9N9 170.1E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 050430Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N3 173.7E8.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR
APPROXIMATELY 18 HOURS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) INDUCED SURFACE CIRCULATION. CONVECTION HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 060600Z2.//

NNNN

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