Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -110407 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 1996 04:07:00 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 54524
ABPW10 PGTW 110600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/110600Z /120600Z OCT 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/100521Z OCT 96
REF/B/RMG/NACPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/100651Z OCT 96
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 100000Z1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W WAS LOCATED
AT 14.0N5 125.8E6, MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W
WARNING NR 01 (WTPN31 PGTW 100530)) AND SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13N4 127E0 AND 14N5 132E6 HAVE BEEN CONSOLIDATED
INTO ONE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARAGRAPH 1.A.(1),
ABOVE, AND REF A. FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 12N3 150E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16N7 144E9. ANIMATED
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA FROM
SAIPAN (WMO 91232) INDICATE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS PRESENT. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. A TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IS JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION, WHILE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE CONVECTION AND
TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. REFER TO REF B (WTPN21
PGTW) FOR INFORMATION ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEAR 9N9 159E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10N1 154E0. ANIMATED
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS PRESENT AND CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED. THE WIND FIELD DERIVED FROM ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS PRESENT TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/TREHUBENKO/MCELROY/MEST/BOGLE//

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