Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -040027 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 04 Nov 1996 00:28:00 -0600

ZCZC DD+ 35137
WTPN22 PGTW 040630
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040555Z NOV 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/031753Z NOV 96//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 031800)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.9N3 135.8E7 TO 7.1N8 127.8E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 040530Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.0N5 132.4E0.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 040530Z AND 040557Z INDICATE
S
THAT THE CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH OF KOROR (WMO 914
08)
IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM MINDANAO TO CHUUK (WMO 91334). ALTHOUGH WI
NDS
DERIVED FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THERE IS SOME MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THIS SYSTEM, THIS IS EXPECTED
TO
RELAX WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC DATA SHOW SURFACE WINDS ARE IN EXCESS OF 2
5
KNOTS NORTH OF 10 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, THESE WINDS ARE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENHANCED TRADES NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WI
NDS
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER ARE NOT AS STRONG. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSU
RE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 050630Z1.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 9.0N9 151.9E6//

NNNN

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