Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -131537 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 1996 15:37:50 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 92911
WTPN32 PGTW 132100
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WARNING NR 003
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- 13.0N4 150.0E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N4 150.0E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 12.4N7 149.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 12.4N7 147.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 12.8N1 146.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 13.5N9 144.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 16.3N0 142.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION 12.8N1  149.7E1
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-WESTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY.
TD 31W IS EXPERIENCING SOME UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALMOST ALL OF OUR 13/18Z OBJECTIVE
FORECAST AIDS TRACK TD 31W SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST
ALONG 12N LATITUDE AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GUAM IN 60 HOURS. OUR
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER
BASED ON AN EXPECTED PUSH FROM THE EAST BY THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES NEAR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. WE HAVE KEPT
THE INTENSITIES LOW THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN EXPECT TD
31W TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN NORMAL BASED ON THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS
FORECAST BY THE NOGAPS MODEL. OF COURSE, ALL OF THIS
HINGES ON HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DEVELOPS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG
140155Z6), 140900Z4 (DTG 140755Z2), 141500Z1 (DTG
141355Z9) AND 142100Z8 (DTG 141955Z5). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM ABEL (30W) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN

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