Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -160118 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 16 Aug 1996 01:18:36 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 73622
ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/160600Z/170600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/160151Z AUG 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/151953Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 160000Z7 TROPICAL STORM KIRK (13W) WAS
LOCATED AT 43.6N3 149.6E0 MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL STORM KIRK
(13W) WARNING NR 50 (WTPN31 PGTW 160300)) AND SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 151800Z5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WAS LOCATED
AT 32.9N4 166.7E0, MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
WARNING NR 7 (WTPN32 PGTW 142100)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16N7 123E6 HAS HAD A MARKED DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6N6 146E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11N2 139E3. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, LOCATED APPOXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION, HOWEVER IT REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NEAR 15N6
170E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15N6 164E1. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF MODERATE
STRENGTH EASTERLY WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE  POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: TREHUBENKO/NICKLAS/MEST/HONG/BOGLE//

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