Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -220912 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 1996 09:12:36 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 71246
WTPN31 PGTW 221500
1. TROPICAL STORM CARLO (33W) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z7 --- 19.4N4 147.1E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N4 147.1E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 19.9N9 146.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 20.2N4 144.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 20.4N6 142.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 20.8N0 141.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 22.9N3 138.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION 19.5N5  146.8E9
TROPICAL STORM CARLO (33W) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS. IT IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 24
HOURS DUE TO INCREASED EASTERLY STEERING FLOW INDUCED BY THE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO ITS NORTH. BEYOND 36 HOURS TS CARLO IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY 72 HOURS
DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2), 230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4), 230900Z4 (DTG
230753Z0) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231353Z7). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z7 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//

NNNN

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