Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -241530 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 24 Sep 1996 15:30:00 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 40703
WTPN31 PGTW 242100
1. TYPHOON YATES (28W) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z5 --- 16.0N7 149.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N7 149.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 15.9N5 146.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 15.9N5 144.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 16.6N3 141.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 18.5N4 139.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 23.7N2 137.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION 16.0N7  148.5E8
TYPHOON YATES (28W) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
CURRENT MOTION IS JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE LATEST
AVAILABLE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE WHICH
HAS REGENERATED. THE EYE IS APPROXIMATELY 10 NM IN
DIAMETER. INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM ZANE (29W) IS
STILL ENHANCING WESTWARD MOTION OF TY YATES. A WELL
DEFINED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF TY YATES IS ALSO
A STRONG FACTOR IN THIS MOTION. AT APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXIST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TY YATES AND RESULT IN A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD THIS BREAK. ALL OF OUR AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MOTION TOWARD THIS WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE WITH THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK, BUT THE SAME
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE SHORT TERM
MOTION DUE WEST. ALL OF OUR PRIMARY DYNAMIC GUIDANCE HAS
MISSED THIS WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. OUR
WARNING INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. WIND RADII AT
WARNING TIME ARE BASED UPON THE LATEST AVAILABLE
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY (SSM/I) ANALYSIS PROVIDED BY
AFGWC BLENDED WITH AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 250300Z0 (DTG 250151Z4), 250900Z6 (DTG 250751Z0),
251500Z3 (DTG 251351Z7) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 25 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM ZANE (29W) (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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