Subject: Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 1996 21:32:18 -0600

494
WTPS32 PGTW 280300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z0 --- 18.6S5 168.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 168.0E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 21.0S3 169.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 23.1S6 171.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 25.7S4 173.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 28.6S6 175.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION 19.2S2  168.4E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM
BURTONFIELD (WMO 91565) AND BAUERFIELD (WMO 91557). THE
WARNING INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-
DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES FERGUS HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND HAS SHOWN
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. FERGUS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SAME GENERAL MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONGER STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG
281357Z6) AND 290300Z4 (DTG 290157Z4).//

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