Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -160910 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 1996 09:10:05 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 31902
WTPN33 PGTW 161500 PAA
1. TROPICAL STORM BETH (32W) WARNING NR 013
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z0 --- 17.5N3 126.2E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT
 GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N3 126.2E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS
 VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 17.5N3 124.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT
 GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS
 VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 17.3N1 123.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT
 GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS
 VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 17.1N9 121.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT
 GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS
 VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 17.0N8 119.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT
 GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS
 VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 16.5N2 114.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT
 GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION 17.5N3  125.9E7
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS
 TROPICAL STORM BETH (32W) HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED.
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING
TO APPEAR. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL
QUADRANTS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 16/1200Z
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 TO 70
KNOTS)
 BUT WAS HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE EYE BEING
CLOUD-COVERED AND A DRY INTRUSION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR PREVIOUS  FORECAST TRACK
SCENARIO UNTIL WE ARE CERTAIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
MOTION IS A PERMANENT TREND. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 980 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 (DTG
161955Z7)
 170300Z1 (DTG 170155Z9)
 170900Z7 (DTG
170755Z5) AND 171500Z4 (DTG 171355Z2). THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 122351Z OCT
96 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 130000 )

NNNN

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