Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -110051 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 1996 00:51:52 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 40625
WTPN31 PGTW 110530
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- 14.0N5 125.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N5 125.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 15.2N8 126.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 16.5N2 125.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 16.9N6 122.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 17.8N6 119.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 19.1N1 116.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
110530Z5 POSITION 14.6N1  125.9E7
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
APPROXIMATELY 80NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CATADUANES ISLAND IN
THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
110430Z9 AND DATA FROM SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES INDICATES THAT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 1003MB LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS WITHIN A LARGER MONSOONAL
CIRCULATION THAT STRETCHES ALMOST 400NM TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS
CLEARLY DEFINED IN THE VISUAL IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA,
ALMOST ALL THE HEAVY CONVECTION AND STRONGER WIND REPORTS
ARE LOCATED IN TWO STRONG CONVECTIVE AREAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 140NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND 350NM TO THE
NORTHEAST, RESPECTIVELY.  ALTHOUGH A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE CONVECTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST, THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TOWARD AND INTERACT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE CONSOLIDATION
TAKES PLACE. A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER A
STRONG WESTERLY STEERING RIDGE STRUCTURE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100530Z9 IS 08 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS BOTH NAVPACMETOCCEN
WEST GU 100729Z OCT 96 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 100730) AND 101521Z OCT 96 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 101530).
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5), 111500Z8 (DTG
111351Z2), 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8) AND 120300Z6 (DTG
120151Z0).//

NNNN

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