Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -201108 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 20 Aug 1996 11:08:20 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 58015
ABPW10 PGTW 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/201600Z/210600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/201353Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 201200Z5 TYPHOON NIKI (18W) WAS LOCATED AT
17.1N9 116.7E5, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90
KNOTS. SEE REF A ((WTPN31 PGTW 201500) TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING NR 11) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18N9 143E8 REMAINS NEAR 18N9 143E8. THE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CLEARLY DEFINED; HOWEVER,
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
26N8 164E1 REMAINS NEAR 26N8 164E1. SYNOPTIC DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THIS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL, WHICH HAS EXTENDED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ISOLATED TO THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (3) THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 29N1 139E3 IS WEAKENING AND IS POORLY
ORGANIZED. THEREFORE, IT IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT.
      (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
22N4 171E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25N7 172E1. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED BENEATH DIFFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CARLE/WOFFORD/REZA//

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