Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -070103 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 07 Oct 1996 01:03:20 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 71521
WTPN21 PGTW 070600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 070551Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N4
146.5E6 TO 10.3N4 138.3E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 070430Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N8 145.5E5.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS FORMED IN THE CAROLINE ISLANDS
APPROXIMATELY 300NM SOUTH OF GUAM AND JUST EAST OF WOLEAI
ATOLL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATE A 1007MB SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER EXISTS UNDER
A SERIES OF WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS. A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXISTS OVER THE REGION
THAT SHOULD ENCOURAGE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 080600Z4.//

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