Subject: Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Dec 1996 13:58:38 -0600

655
WTPS31 PGTW 252100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z6 --- 13.2S6 139.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 139.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 13.4S8 138.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 13.5S9 137.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 13.8S2 137.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 13.9S3 136.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION 13.2S6  138.9E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WE BELIEVE TC 12P WILL NOT INTENSIFY FURTHER DUE
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRESENTLY ON THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 (DTG 260753Z3) AND
262100Z1 (DTG 261953Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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