Subject: Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 27 Dec 1996 08:29:06 -0600

588
WTPS32 PGTW 271500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z2 --- 16.3S0 165.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 165.5E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 18.9S8 166.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 21.2S5 168.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 23.2S7 169.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 25.6S3 170.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION 17.0S8  165.8E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE CORAL SEA. TC 13P HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG
280157Z3) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281357Z6). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 27/1200Z2 IS 18 FEET.//

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