Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -211547 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 1996 15:47:54 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 64523
WTPN31 PGTW 212100
1. TROPICAL STORM CARLO (33W) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- 19.5N5 148.2E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N5 148.2E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 20.1N3 147.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 20.8N0 145.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 21.5N8 144.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 22.1N5 142.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 23.0N5 139.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION 19.7N7  147.9E1
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM CARLO (33W) HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED. A WELL-
DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL (DOWN TO -
88C) EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. DUE TO ONLY INFRARED IMAGERY
BEING AVAILABLE AT NIGHT, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF THE SYSTEM CENTER IS
MOVING UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION, THEN CARLO WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT AROUND 90 TO 100 KNOTS IN 72
HOURS. IF, HOWEVER, THE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES,
THEN CARLO WILL ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS WE HAVE INDICATED IN
OUR FORECAST. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
21/1730Z DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 TO 50
KNOTS). MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 991 MB.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3), 220900Z3 (DTG
220753Z9), 221500Z0 (DTG 221353Z6) AND 222100Z7 (DTG 221953Z2).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W WARNING (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//

NNNN

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