Subject: Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Nov 1996 01:34:32 -0600

261
WTPS31 PGTW 230900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z1 --- 13.3S7 160.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 160.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 15.7S3 161.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 18.3S2 161.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 21.2S5 162.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 23.7S2 164.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION 13.9S3  160.8E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IT
HAS REACHED AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON 230530Z3
IMAGERY ANALYSIS (DVORAK T2.5). THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NEAR 48 HOURS IT MAY
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING STEERING
FLOW FROM MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z8 (DTG 231951Z1) AND 240900Z5 (DTG 240751Z9).
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 221451Z NOV 96 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 221500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z1 IS 12 FEET.//

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