Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -211536 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 1996 15:36:59 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 42993
WTPN33 PGTW 212100 PAA
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (BETH) WARNING NR 033
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- 15.5N1 108.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT
 GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N1 108.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS
 VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 15.1N7 107.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT
 GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION 15.4N0  108.5E4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (BETH) HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 TO 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR. THERE IS NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE POORLY
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALL OF THE
STRONGER DEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA IS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH TD 32W=S
DECAYING CIRCULATION
 ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CENTER IS
ALMOST ONSHORE THE CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM CARLO (33W) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

RCULATION BENEATH UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
       (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 211200Z6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANTOINETTE)
WAS LOCATED AT 13.4S8  58.7E0
 MOVING WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
WARNING NR 10 (WTXS31 PGTW 211500)) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/MCELROY/MEST/PUGH//
KS.
      C. WE ARE FORECASTING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH
36 HOURS AND THEN A NORMAL RATE OF 20 KNOTS PER DAY
THROUGH 72 HOURS WHEN CARLO IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY. HOWEVER
 DURING THE PAST 04 TO 06 HOURS

TROPICAL STORM CARLO HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF UNDERGOING
POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE CDO FEATURE HAS
EXPANDED AND TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST 03 HOURS
 BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL
REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO
SOME WEAK WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. IF CARLO CAN
OVERCOME THIS SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 06 TO 18 HOURS
 THEN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN ONCE AN INTENSITY
OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS IS REACHED WHICH WILL MAKE OUR
INTENSITY FORECASTS TOO LOW. CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS REGION
INDICATES THAT CARLO COULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80
TO 100 KNOTS IN 72 TO 96 HOURS.
      D. FORECAST WIND RADII IS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ASYMMETRIES ARE BASED
ON THE SYSTEM=S FORWARD MOTION.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/MCELROY/MEST/PUGH//
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR RELAXES SLIGHTLY.
BY THE 72-HR POSITION

NNNN

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