Subject: Pacific-SW: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 1996 21:12:22 -0600

254
WTPS32 PGTW 290300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z1 --- 24.1S7 173.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S7 173.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 27.2S1 175.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 30.3S6 178.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 33.7S3 178.3W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 36.7S6 173.9W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 24.9S5  173.7E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (FERGUS) CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW CALEDONIA. WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. FERGUS IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT PICKS UP STRONGER STEERING FLOW
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
FERGUS IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG
291357Z7) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300157Z6).//

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