Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -220147 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 22 Aug 1996 01:47:04 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 36891
ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/220600Z/230600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/220153Z AUG 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/220155Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 220000Z4 TYPHOON NIKI (18W) WAS LOCATED AT
18.6N5 109.1E1, MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 100 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W WARNING NR 17 (WTPN31
PGTW 220300)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 220000Z4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WAS LOCATED
AT 22.4N8 143.2E0, MOVING NORTHWARD AT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE 19W WARNING NR 2
(WTPN32 PGTW 220300)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
25N7 162E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27N9 157E3. THIS AREA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL, WHICH EXTENDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ISOLATED TO THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH DEEPER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
28N0 171E9 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT.
 (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 27N9 134E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28N0 132E6. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST TWELVE HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: DUARTE/NICKLAS/EBARLE/BOYD//

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