Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -040401 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 04 Aug 1996 04:01:13 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 82231
WTPN31 PGTW 040900
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- 23.5N0 131.2E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N0 131.2E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 24.7N3 129.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 55 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: ??? DEG/ ?? KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 26.3N1 127.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: ??? DEG/ ?? KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 28.5N5 126.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: ??? DEG/ ?? KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 30.4N7 126.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: ??? DEG/ ?? KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 32.8N3 127.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
040600Z0 POSITION 23.5N0  131.2E7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. IT IS
LOCATED AT THE END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH HAS BEEN SWINGING
NORTHWARD. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUPPORT THE CONCEPT OF A MONSOON GYRE FORMING IN THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC TO THE WEST OF TD 13W. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO ADVECT AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS MONSOON GYRE AND THEN ESCAPE OUT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT AN
AVERAGE RATE AND REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY WITHIN
APPROXIMATELY 12-24 HOURS. OUR APOLOGIES FOR ISSUING THIS WARNING
LATER THAN USUAL. WE HAVE SUFFERED A MAJOR COMPUTER CRASH OF OUR
AUTOMATED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST (ATCF) SYSTEM AS WELL AS A
CRASH OF OUR LOCAL AREA NETWORK. THIS WARNING HAS BEEN HAND EDITED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUED WARNING, AND EXACT VECTORS AND DIRECTIONS
TO EACH POSITION ARE NOT YET AVAILABLE. NEXT WARNING AT 041500Z0
(DTG 041351Z4). MAXIMUM SEAS AT 040600Z ARE 11 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM JOY (12W) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

BT
#7849

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