Subject: Pacific-NW: Formation Alert -100232 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 1996 02:32:16 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 86100
WTPN21 PGTW 100730
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100729Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N1
126.4E3 TO 14.5N0 121.9E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
100530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N4 126.0E9.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
LATEST ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY
60NM NORTHEAST OF SAMAR AND 120NM SOUTHEAST OF CATADUANES
ISLANDS IN THE PHILIPPINES. NEWLY DEVELOPED CONVECTION IS
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THIS AREA HAS
BROKEN AWAY FROM A LARGE MONSOONAL SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED
JUST TO THE EAST AND THERE STILL REMAINS SOME INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED
TO BE COMPLETED PRIOR TO ANY INTERACTION WITH THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE TO OCCUR.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 110730Z2.//

NNNN

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