Subject: Pacific-NW: Tropical Weather Summery -041359 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 04 Aug 1996 13:59:36 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 73211
ABPW10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN/041800Z/050600Z AUG 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/041353Z AUG 96//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/041351Z AUG 96//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 041200Z7 TROPICAL STORM JOY (12W) WAS LOCATED AT
33.9N5 154.9E9, MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL STORM JOY (12W) WARNING NR 26 (WTPN32
PGTW 041500)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 041200Z7 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W WAS LOCATED AT
25.0N7 130.0E4, MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
SEE REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE 13W WARNING NR 04 (WTPN31 PGTW 041500))
AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
       (3)  NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
       (1)   THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR 13N4
113E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13N4 111E3. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A BAND OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION
LYING WEST THE PHILIPPINES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS FAIR.
       (2)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24N6
178E6 REMAINS NEAR 24N6 178E6. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CIRCULATION TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR ELEMENT DRIFT WINDS
INDICATE THIS TUTT CELL IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE CONVECTION. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS NOT YET BEEN
DETECTED ON ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETRY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1012 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2.  WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: KALAFSKY/DEOCARIZA/BOYD//
BT
#7862

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