Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -230939 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 1996 09:39:57 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 72116
WTPN31 PGTW 231500 PAA
1. TYPHOON CARLO (33W) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231200Z8 --- 20.5N7 145.0E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT
 GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N7 145.0E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS
 VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 22.1N5 144.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT
 GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS
 VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 24.7N3 143.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT
 GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS
 VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 27.6N5 144.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT
 GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS
 VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 30.5N8 146.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT
 GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS
 VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 36.2N1 152.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT
 GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION 20.9N1  144.8E7
TYPHOON CARLO (33W) IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TY CARLO HAS AN
EYE APPROXIMATELY 12 NM IN DIAMETER THAT IS SLOWLY CONTRACTING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. IT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON 23/1130Z SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING
90 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK T5.0). WIND RADII ON
THIS WARNING HAVE BEEN ENLARGED SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE AS SUPPORTED BY SYNOPTIC DATA. GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER ARE BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON WIND FLOW. THIS LARGE WIND RADII
ASYMMETRY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL
WITH TIME DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE FORWARD MOTION OF TY CARLO
AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND ACCELERATES IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 (DTG
231953Z3)
 240300Z9 (DTG 240153Z5)
 240900Z5 (DTG 240753Z1) AND

NNNN

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