Subject: Pacific-NW: Marine Warning -141519 (AUTOMATIC)

From: Charley Kline <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 1996 15:19:43 -0500

ZCZC DD+ 38230
WTPN33 PGTW 142100
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W WARNING NR 006
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- 16.2N9 130.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N9 130.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 16.5N2 129.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 16.8N5 128.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 17.0N8 126.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 17.3N1 125.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 17.8N6 121.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION 16.3N0  130.3E7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY
JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED TO THE WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS CLOUD TOPS OF -86 TO -91C NOTED
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. OUR CURRENT POSITION IS VERY CLOSE
TO OUR LAST WARNING POSITION BASED ON NEW SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHICH BETTER DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER, TD 32W IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BUT AT
SLOWER SPEED THAN INDICATED IN OUR PREVIOUS WARNING.
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE FIRST
VISIBLE IMAGERY IN ABOUT 3 HOURS WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. IF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION, THEN TD 32W
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. SLOW BUT
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR FROM THE EAST IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150157Z9), 150900Z5 (DTG
150757Z5), 151500Z2 (DTG 151357Z2) AND 152100Z9 (DTG
151957Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS
15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION  30W
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION  31W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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