Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 23 [200232]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 19 Jul 1997 21:30:42 -0500

075
WTPZ43 KNHC 200232
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 1997

THE EYE HQAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT AND GOOD OUTFLOW IS
LIMITED TO ONE QUADRANT.  THUS THE PEAK HAS PROBABLY PASSED AND
DECAY WILL BEGIN DUE TO LOWER SSTS ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAKENING COULD BE MORE RAPID DUE TO
THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.

CURRENT FORECASTS ARE A CONTINUATION OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE
FORWARD SPEED IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT ACTUAL MOVEMENT.  THE
FASTER MOTION SUGGESTS NO TURN IS IMMINENT.  HOWEVER A TROUGH LATE
IN THE FORECAST COULD BRING BOTH SHEAR...HENCE WEAKENING...AND A
TURN TO THE RIGHT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

JARRELL

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     20/0300Z 16.2N 131.7W   110 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.6N 134.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.1N 136.8W    85 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.6N 139.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 18.1N 142.1W    60 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 19.0N 147.0W    40 KTS

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