Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Eight-e Discussion Number 5 [151454]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Jul 1997 10:26:26 -0500

915
WTPZ43 KNHC 151454
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 1997

THE SYSTEM IS UNDER NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR.  SOME DEEP CONVECTION
HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS PUT THE CYCLONE AT THE THRESHOLD OF
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  FROM IR PICTURES...THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED
TO BE MOVING TOWARD 285/8 KT WHICH IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANALYZED.  THE FIRST TWO VISIBLE PICTURES HINT THAT THE CENTER MIGHT
BE ABOUT 30 NM NE OF THAT SHOWN IN THIS ADVISORY.  IF CONFIRMED IN
ADDITIONAL PICTURES...A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED WITH LESS OF A WESTWARD
COMPONENT WOULD BE APPROPRIATE.

THE SHEAR IS IN PART DUE TO THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
ENRIQUE.  AS ENRIQUE WEAKENS...THE INFLUENCE SHOULD WEAKEN AND THE
TD IS THEN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY.

THE 06Z AVN SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE WILL BE
NORTH OF THE TD.  THIS WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A W TO WNW TRACK
WITH SOME ACCELERATION...AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  OF
COURSE...THIS CONTRADICTS THE CURRENT MORE NORTHWARD MOTION HINTED
AT BY THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES.  FOR NOW...THE NHC TRACK
IS TOWARD THE WNW AND CLOSEST TO THE GFDL...BUT SLOWER.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     15/1500Z 11.8N 112.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 12.1N 114.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 12.7N 116.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.1N 118.6W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 13.7N 121.1W    55 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W    65 KTS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.