Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 28 Dec 1997 21:14:31 -0600

383
WTXS32 PGTW 290300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z1 --- 17.6S4 107.0E8

PAGE 02 RUEDMCB0183 UNCLAS
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 107.0E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 18.8S7 106.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:

PAGE 03 RUEDMCB0183 UNCLAS
   300000Z3 --- 19.9S9 105.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 20.3S5 104.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 20.4S6 102.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---

PAGE 04 RUEDMCB0183 UNCLAS
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 17.9S7  106.8E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
BUT HAS MAINTAINED A HIGH INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 36
HOURS, CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. AS TC 09S
(SELWYN) SHEARS, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG
291353Z3) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2).//
BT
#0183

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