Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 042

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Dec 1997 16:26:42 -0600

742
WTPN31 PGTW 122100
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 042
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- 8.4N2 164.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

PAGE 03 RUEOMCC0727 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N2 164.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 8.9N7 162.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 9.4N3 159.6E1

PAGE 04 RUEOMCC0727 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 10.1N2 157.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:

PAGE 05 RUEOMCC0727 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   141800Z4 --- 10.9N0 154.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 12.5N8 149.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION: 8.5N3 163.3E3

PAGE 06 RUEOMCC0727 UNCLAS //NO3145//
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TYPHOON PAKA
(05C) HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
AS IT CONTINUES TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY REFLECTS A
SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115
KNOTS. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS SIMILAR AS TY PAKA
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST AND PAST A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION HAS
MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTH AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW PAKA TO TRACK
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TY PAKA IS
STILL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT REMAINS IN AN AREA
WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR PERIODS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT

PAGE 07 RUEOMCC0727 UNCLAS //NO3145//
130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z), 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z), 131500Z0
(DTG 131351Z) AND 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z).//
BT
#0727

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.