Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 059

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 16 Dec 1997 18:32:47 -0600

248
WTPN31 PGTW 170300
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 059
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z8 --- 13.7N1 143.0E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 143.0E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 13.7N1 141.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 13.7N1 139.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 13.8N2 137.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 14.0N5 135.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 14.5N0 132.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION: 13.7N1 142.4E1
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TYPHOON PAKA
(05C) HAS CONTINUED ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK AND INCREASED
FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY TO 9 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH SHOWS A 26NM DIAMETER EYE. ADDITIONALLY, THE INNER
EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ELONGATED AND APPEARS TO BE
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTRAL EYE FEATURE. CURRENT WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM SAIPAN (WMO 91232) AND ANDERSEN
AIR FORCE BASE ON GUAM. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME AS TY PAKA IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FORECAST
FORWARD SPEEDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT
INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. TY PAKA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 38 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 (DTG 170751Z), 171500Z4
(DTG 71351Z), 172100Z1 (DTG 171951Z) AND 180300Z2
(180151Z).//

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