Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Jimena Discussion Number 10

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Aug 1997 15:34:03 -0500

173
WTPZ42 KNHC 272035
TCDEP2
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 27 1997

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH THE NESDIS SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS
BRANCH AND THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER AGREE AT 115 KNOTS.
HOWEVER THE SMALL EYE IS STARTING TO FILL IN WITH CLOUDS AND THE
CLOUD TOPS ARE GRADUALLY WARMING.  THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS
BECOMING A LITTLE DISTORTED.  THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY THAT JIMENA HAS
PEAKED.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  SHEARING MAY INCREASE LATER
IN THE PERIOD...WHICH WOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING PROCESS.

MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE BECOMING MORE DIVERGENT.  MEDIUM/SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING AND THE
AVN MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TURN WHEREAS DEEP-LAYER STEERING AND THE
NHC91...WHICH USES DEEP-LAYER MEAN HEIGHTS...SHOW A NORTHWARD TRACK.

IT IS FELT THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATER IN THE PERIOD IS A
REASONABLE FORECAST FOR A WEAKENING SYSTEM.  HENCE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THIS TURN...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE UK MET OFFICE
MODEL AND NOGAPS PREDICTIONS AS WELL.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     27/2100Z 14.7N 136.2W   115 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.7N 136.5W   110 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 17.0N 137.3W   105 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 18.0N 138.5W    95 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N 140.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 143.0W    70 KTS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.