Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 310727z Oct 97//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Oct 1997 01:18:06 -0600

094
WTPN21 PGTW 310730
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 310727Z OCT 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N9
118.0E0 TO 9.0N9 112.5E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 310530Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N3 118.5E5. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS CROSSED THE SOUTHERN
PHILLIPINE ISLANDS AND IS NOW LOCATED IN THE SULU SEA.
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SUPPORTS CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL TO FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD ONCE IT CROSSES PALAWAN ISLAND AND ENTERS
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 010730Z1.//

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