Subject: Pacific-NC: Tropical Depression Five-c Discussion Number 1

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 2 Dec 1997 08:46:16 -0600

540
WTPA41 PHNL 021500
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST TUE DEC 02 1997

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT
1100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS INTENSIFIED
AND HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO DEPRESSION STATUS. THE GFDL AND
BETA ADVECTION MODELS INITIALLY MOVE T.D. 5C SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND
LATER ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION
INDICATED BY THE GFDL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INITIALLY THIS SYSTEM IS
KEPT STATIONARY THEN BEGINS A NORTHWEST TRACK. SHOULD T.D. 3C
REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY LATER TODAY IT WILL BE NAMED PAKA.
LARSON

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     02/1500Z  7.2N 166.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z  7.2N 166.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z  7.6N 166.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z  8.1N 167.6W    35 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z  8.6N 169.7W    30 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z  9.3N 173.9W    25 KTS

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