Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 10

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 9 Nov 1997 14:39:55 -0600

018
WTPZ44 KNHC 092041
TCDEP4
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST SUN NOV 09 1997

BURSTS OF STRONG CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE ESTIMATED
CENTER...AND THE EYE IS OBSCURED ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  HOWEVER THE
EYE CONTINUES VISIBLE ON THE ACAPULCO RADAR.  THE RADAR ALSO SHOWS
THAT RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTLINE IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  RICK SHOULD WEAKEN
RAPIDLY ONCE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST AND ENCOUNTERS THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 065/11.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING THIS GENERAL MOVEMENT FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE CENTER SHOULD BE CROSSING THE COASTLINE
LATER TODAY.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER COULD EMERGE
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER ON...BUT BY THAT TIME THE CIRCULATION
SHOULD HAVE BEEN MOSTLY DESTROYED AND BE IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLIES.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     09/2100Z 15.7N  98.1W    75 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N  96.5W    50 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.6N  94.8W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     11/0600Z 18.5N  93.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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