Subject: Pacific-NW: This Warning Supersedes And Cancels Navpacmetoccen West

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Nov 1997 12:06:46 -0600

624
WTPN31 PGTW 101800
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 091851Z NOV 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 091900 )
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- 11.2N4 140.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N4 140.0E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 11.4N6 138.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 11.7N9 137.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 12.0N3 135.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 12.4N7 133.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 13.4N8 129.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
101800Z4 POSITION 11.2N4  140.0E5
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED
INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W AND HAS AN ESTIMATED
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TD 31W HAS BECOME MORE CENTRALLY LOCATED
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS SHOW
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WHICH HAS ENHANCED THE OUTFLOW ABOVE THE
SYSTEM. TD 31W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN AN AREA
WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ITS
FORWARD SPEED AFTER THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE NAVY, AVIATION AND JAPANESE MODELS
SUPPORT THIS FORECAST AS THEY DEVELOP TD 31W THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG
110153Z1), 110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7), 111500Z8 (DTG
111353Z4) AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0). THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 091851Z NOV
97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
091900)//

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