Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 14 [172029]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 17 Jul 1997 15:28:22 -0500

549
WTPZ43 KNHC 172029
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 17 1997

FELICIA SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN.  CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
STEADY.  WE STILL EXPECT SOME ROOM FOR INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN THE
SHEARING ENVIRONMENT OF THE PRESENT AND RECENT PAST...AND COOL
WATER.  OUR FORECAST IS STEADY 24 H THEN SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
FOLLOWED BY DECAY IN THE FINAL 24 H.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.  NONE OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
THEREFORE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS MADE
TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED PRESENT MOTION.

JARRELL

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     17/2100Z 14.7N 119.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.2N 121.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.8N 123.1W    65 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.4N 125.4W    70 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.9N 127.3W    70 KTS
72HR VT     20/1800Z 17.7N 131.2W    60 KTS

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