Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 25a Corrected

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 2 Nov 1997 17:26:27 -0600

132
WTPN31 PGTW 022100 COR
1. SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 25A CORRECTED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- 15.2N8 142.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N8 142.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 16.0N7 140.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 16.6N3 138.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 18.0N9 136.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 19.7N7 135.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 23.0N5 136.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION 15.4N0  142.3E0
SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WHILE MAINTAINING ITS
INTENSITY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSES RANGING FROM CI7.0 (140 KNOTS)
TO CI7.5 (155 KNOTS) AND FOR THE CIRCULAR, 15 NM DIAMETER
THAT HAS DECREASED IN SIZE IN RADAR IMAGERY DURING THE
PAST 03 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS, RECURVATURE IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY AS KEITH TRACKS INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z1 IS 44 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6
(DTG 030153Z2), 030900Z2 (DTG 030753Z8), 031500Z9 (DTG
031353Z5) AND 032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1). REFER TO TYPHOON
LINDA (30W) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED WARNING
NUMBER.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUHGSGG35023070153

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