Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 012

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Oct 1997 07:38:27 -0600

162
WTPN31 PGTW 301500
1. TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z6 --- 8.3N1 159.5E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.3N1 159.5E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 9.0N9 157.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
  31120 +KJJ
KR:SY 155.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS -  LMS5
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 10.6N7 152.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 11.6N8 150.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 14.1N6 144.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION  8.5N3  159.0E5
TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WHILE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
06 HOURS.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 301130Z8
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (75 TO 85 KNOTS).
AN EYE HAS INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 5 HOURS BUT WAS CLOUD COVERED AT
WARNING TIME.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  HOWEVER, WE EXPECT TYPHOON
KEITH TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY A LITTLE SOONER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND ALSO HAVE A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN
60 TO 72 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z6 IS 21 FEET.  REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6 (DTG
301953Z1), 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3), 310900Z3 (DTG
10753Z9) AND 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6).//

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