Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 19 [190238]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 18 Jul 1997 21:39:01 -0500

670
WTPZ43 KNHC 190238
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 1997

THE INTENSITY OF FELICIA HAS HELD STEADY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS
WITH DVORAK INTENSITY T NUMBER ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.5 TO
6.0 BUT PRIMARILY 5.5.  THE INNER MOST RING OF CLOUD TOPS HAS WARMED
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS SO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT AND 12 HOUR FORECAST INTENSITY
REMAINS 100 KTS.  THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE STORM
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER AFTER CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM BETWEEN
THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS.

THE HEADING OF FELICIA IS 280/14...SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY AND FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED MORE WESTERLY
AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND THE CURRENT GFDL,
NHC91 AND CLIPER GUIDANCE MODELS...THREE OF OUR BETTER PERFORMERS IN
THIS BASIN.  THE GUIDANCE IS DOMINATED BY THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE
NORTH THAT THE CURRENT AVIATION RUN MAINTAINS.

GROSS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     19/0300Z 15.6N 126.0W   100 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 15.9N 128.1W   100 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 16.2N 130.5W    90 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 132.7W    80 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 16.8N 134.9W    70 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 139.3W    45 KTS

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