Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm Linda (30w) Warning Nr 013

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 3 Nov 1997 15:15:01 -0600

315
WTPN32 PGTW 032100
1. TROPICAL STORM LINDA (30W) WARNING NR 013
   DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON LINDA (30W)
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- 11.8N0 99.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N0 99.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 12.8N1 98.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 13.2N6 96.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 13.4N8 94.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 13.5N9 92.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 13.9N3 88.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION 12.1N4   99.3E1
TYPHOON LINDA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
THAILAND AND IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE MALAY
PENINSULA AND, AS A RESULT, HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
LINDA (30W). THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WINDS REMAIN EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING UNTIL THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA. MOST OF OUR FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LINDA WILL TRACK WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS,
BUT THERE IS A LOW PRROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT LINDA COULD
SLOW DOWN AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHERN ANDAMAN SEA AS
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH.
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 031730Z4 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF CI3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND LAND EFFECTS. OUR WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATIO
N.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1), 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7),
041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4) AND 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0). REFER TO SUPER
TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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