Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number 33

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 7 Aug 1997 15:36:06 -0500

988
WTPZ44 KNHC 072035
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 07 1997

INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEEN VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  GUILLERMO WAS FORMERLY A VERY
STRONG AND LARGE HURRICANE AND IT WILL SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AS COOLER
WATER TAKES ITS TOLL.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12.  CURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHALLOW LAYER BAM.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS AND
UKMET MODELS.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     07/2100Z 17.6N 133.8W    70 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 18.3N 135.7W    60 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 19.1N 138.1W    50 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 20.1N 140.4W    40 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.2N 142.8W    35 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 23.5N 147.5W    30 KTS

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