Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 25 Oct 1997 01:56:49 -0500

209
ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/250600Z/260600Z OCT 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/241351ZOCT97//
NARR/REF A, TS IVAN (27W) WRNG NR 46//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 241200Z9 TROPICAL STORM IVAN (27W) WAS
LOCATED AT 27.3N2 136.1E1, MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 11
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL STORM IVAN
(27W) WARNING NR 46 (WTPN31 PGTW 241500)) FOR THE FINAL
WARNINGS ON THIS SYSTEM.
     (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8N8 172E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7N7 171E9. A 241950Z1 SSM/I
PASS OVER THIS AREA SHOWED A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WHICH CONCURS WITH ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST CONVECTION THAT CORRESPONDS TO THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS APPROXIMATELY 130 NM TO THE WEST.
SYNOPTIC DATA SUPPORTS THE SATELLITE FIX POSITION. THE
250000Z7 UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM MAJURO (WMO 91376)
INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE 250300Z0
SURFACE REPORT SHOWED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1005 MB, A
2 MB FALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE WEAK CIRCULATION
PASSED TO THE NORTH OF THE ATOLL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY OVER THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11S2 178E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 177E5. A 241117Z6
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER,
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME DISORGANIZED DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/HILDEBRAND/SANCHEZ/HALL//

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