Subject: Indian-S: Gu 261423z Dec 97 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Dec 1997 21:11:31 -0600

654
WTXS32 PGTW 270300
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 261423Z DEC 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS22 PGTW 261430)
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- 14.6S1 110.8E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 110.8E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 15.4S0 109.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 15.9S5 108.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 16.3S0 107.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 16.8S5 105.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION 14.8S3  110.5E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS STILL CONSOLIDATING AND DIFFICULT TO
POSITION. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE A SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT CONSOLIDATES.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE MOVING TC 09C SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG
271353Z1) AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280153Z9). THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 261423Z DEC
97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 261430)
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (SID) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#1571

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