Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Eight-e Discussion Number 3 [150249]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Jul 1997 21:48:56 -0500

782
WTPZ43 KNHC 150249
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 14 1997

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BAND REMAINS OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST
QUADRANTS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 30 TO 35 KT.  IF
CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND MORE OF THE CENTER AND BECOMES MORE
PERSISTENT...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON.  THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER WARM WATER AND AS
ENRIQUE MOVES NORTHWARD WITH ITS EFFECTS DIMINISHING ON THIS
SYSTEM...WE FORECAST HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THIS SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY UP TO 00Z HAS PROVIDED A FAIR ESTIMATE OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
285/13...SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD THEN PREVIOUSLY.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK.  BECAUSE
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION...WE HAVE SLOWED
THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY TO BE MORE IN CONSISTENT WITH NHC91 AND
CLIPER...MODELS WHICH STATISTICALLY PROVIDE OUR BEST GUIDANCE ON LOW
LATITUDE...WESTWARD MOVING STORMS.

GROSS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     15/0300Z 10.9N 112.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 11.3N 113.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 11.7N 116.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 12.2N 118.9W    50 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 12.7N 121.3W    55 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 13.3N 125.6W    65 KTS

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