Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Jimena Discussion Number 16

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 1997 03:36:34 -0500

885
WTPZ42 KNHC 290837
TCDEP2
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 1997

LAST AVAILABLE GOES9 IMAGE WAS AT 0400Z. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE THE CENTER OF JIMENA SINCE THE CONVECTION AND THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER APPEARS TO BE RACING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ON THE OTHER
HAND...ANIMATION OF LOW CLOUDS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF JIMENA
MAY BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
JIMENA IS WEAKENING FAST...BUT DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE STILL HIGH DUE
TO THE TECHNIQUE CONSTRAINTS.  ALTHOUGH...JIMENA CERTAINLY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE AS 90-KNOT HURRICANE ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE...I AM
NOT ABOUT TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE TRACK OR THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WITH OLD SATELLITE IMAGES.  JIMENA MAY BE JUST A SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS WHEN VIS PICTURES BECOME AVAILABLE LATER TODAY.  FOR
NOW...THIS FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

NOTE: REMAP GOES8 IMAGES SUGGEST THAT JIMENA IS SHEARING RAPIDLY.
AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     29/0900Z 20.6N 138.7W    90 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 22.0N 139.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 23.5N 140.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 25.0N 140.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     31/0600Z 26.0N 140.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 27.5N 139.5W    25 KTS

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