Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Nine-e Discussion Number 2 [310235]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 30 Jul 1997 21:36:29 -0500

353
WTPZ44 KNHC 310235
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 30 1997

SATELLITE PICS SHOW A BANDING TYPE PATTERN WITH A RATHER BROAD
CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL RAGGED AND THE
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS OVER WARM WATER...IN FACT SHOULD REMAIN OVER 29 TO 30C WATER
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ESTABLISHED.  INTENSIFICATION TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IS FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIFOR...SHIPS
...AND GFDI GUIDANCE.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL GOING THROUGH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT PHASE AND
AS USUAL THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE
0000Z SYNOPTIC FIXES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THE 1800Z SYNOPTIC FIXES.  THEREFORE...A LITTLE REPOSITIONING IS
REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT THE LOCATION CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW.  BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/05.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN SATELLITE ANIMATION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS ONLY MANIFEST AT HIGH LEVELS IN
THE 0000Z MEXICAN RAOB DATA.  THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...STILL
BASED ON THE 1200Z AVIATION RUN OF THE NWS GLOBAL MODEL... SHOWS THE
200 MB LOW MOVING WESTWARD WITH TIME AND WEAKENING WHILE MAINTAINING
A 700 TO 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO CONTINUE.
OUR CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY A LITTLE
SLOWER.  IT IS ALSO MIDWAY BETWEEN THE GFDI AND THE DEEP LAYER BAM
GUIDANCE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL
TRACK PREDICTION MODEL.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     31/0300Z 11.4N  95.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     31/1200Z 11.6N  96.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 12.0N  98.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 12.6N  99.9W    50 KTS
48HR VT     02/0000Z 13.4N 102.1W    60 KTS
72HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N 107.0W    70 KTS

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