Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 14 [152050]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Jul 1997 15:53:36 -0500

945
WTPZ42 KNHC 152050
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 1997

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW ENRIQUE VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  A THICK
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER THE NW QUADRANT WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DEFINED BY STRATOCUMULUS.
THE CENTER IS MOVING TOWARD 305/15 KT.  THE ESTIMATED WIND SPEED IS
REDUCED TO 45 KT.

THE STEERING IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE GOVERNED BY A SURFACE-BASED
LAYER OF DECREASING DEPTH.  THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO RESEMBLE
THE BAMS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WNW AND THEN THE
W.

ENRIQUE IS LIKELY TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN AND THEN ESSENTIALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THIS IS ALSO FORECAST BY SHIFOR
AND THE GFDL.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     15/2100Z 19.7N 130.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.8N 131.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 21.9N 133.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 22.5N 135.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 23.0N 137.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING

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