Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm Mort (31w) Warning Nr 003a Corrected

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Nov 1997 02:23:28 -0600

951
WTPN31 PGTW 110900 COR
1. TROPICAL STORM MORT (31W) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z8 --- 11.9N1 138.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N1 138.5E7

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    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 12.3N6 137.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 12.8N1 136.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 13.2N6 134.7E5

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   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 13.5N9 133.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 13.8N2 130.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE

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                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION 12.0N3  138.2E4
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO
TROPICAL STORM MORT (31W). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS). THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED
AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED WITH
CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80C. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN, WE HAVE INCREASED THE
INTENSITY TREND TO SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN NORMAL WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT
THIS LATITUDE. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN
THE GFDN MODEL AND OTHER DYNAMIC MODEL FORECASTS AFTER 36
TO 48 HOURS. OUR FORECAST REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF OUR
OBJECTIVE AIDS ENVELOPE AND WE HAVE USED CLIMATOLOGY FOR

PAGE 06 RUHGSGG9905 UNCLAS
THE TRACK SPEED WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE
JGSM OR JTYM MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 (DTG
111351Z2), 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8), 120300Z6 (DTG
120151Z0) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6). JUSTIFICATION: TO
CORRECTED THE REMARKS SECTION.//
BT
#9905

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