Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 10 [142036]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Jul 1997 15:49:08 -0500

626
WTPZ42 KNHC 142036
TCDEP2
HURRICANE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 14 1997

THE EYE HAS REAPPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES
FROM SAB AND AFGWC.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT AS
SYMMETRIC AS 24 HOURS AGO AND THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INVOLVED
WITH THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE WEST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE FROM CLIMATOLOGY.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 310/13.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE DEEP LAYER BAM RECURVES THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN RESPONSE TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 25N132W.  HOWEVER...THIS LOW
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.  SINCE OUR TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING...OUR OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE
LOWER LAYER BAM AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH ENRIQUE IS GOING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER...
IT IS NOT GOING TO DISSIPATE BY 1200Z ON 15 JULY AS INDICATED BY THE
UKMET MODEL.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     14/2100Z 15.9N 125.0W    90 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.1N 126.7W    85 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.7N 128.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 130.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N 134.5W    50 KTS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.