Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm Keith (29w) Warning Nr 045

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 7 Nov 1997 14:41:21 -0600

904
WTPN31 PGTW 072100
1. TROPICAL STORM KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 045
   DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 29W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- 27.7N6 144.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            165 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N6 144.9E8
    ---

PAGE 03 RUHGSGG8574 UNCLAS
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 29.9N0 149.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 31.9N3 154.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 34.1N8 160.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

PAGE 04 RUHGSGG8574 UNCLAS
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 36.4N3 166.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 54 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   54 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 37.7N7 170.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION 28.2N2  146.0E1
TYPHOON KEITH HAS WEAKENED WHILE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
AND, THEREFORE, HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
KEITH (29W). CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER

PAGE 05 RUHGSGG8574 UNCLAS
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. KEITH IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OWING TO MERGER WITH A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 24 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7),
080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3), 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0) AND
082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6).//
BT
#8574

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