Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Ten-e Discussion Number 4

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 10 Aug 1997 16:32:50 -0500

380
WTPZ45 KNHC 102130
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 1997

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 360/05.  THE SCENARIO OF A
MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS THE SAME
AS BEFORE.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS THE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SOME WESTWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE GFDL MODEL WHICH ALONG WITH THE AVIATION MODEL SEEMS TO
MERGE THE DEPRESSION WITH THE LOW.

A SMALL COLD CDO HAS RECENTLY FORMED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BUT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
HAS BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED.  SO THE SYSTEM IS KEPT A DEPRESSION BUT
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS AND TO
CONTINUE STRENGHTENING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR NEARBY

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     10/2100Z 12.3N 114.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 13.0N 114.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 14.0N 115.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 15.2N 117.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     12/1800Z 16.2N 119.8W    50 KTS
72HR VT     13/1800Z 17.7N 124.6W    60 KTS

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