Subject: Pacific-NC: Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 49

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 11 Aug 1997 15:33:11 -0500

995
WTPA44 PHNL 112100
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST MON AUG 11 1997

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING...GUILLERMO STILL EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE WESTERLY WHEN IT LOSES SOME OF ITS CONVECTIVE MANTLE. INITIAL
PROJECTED PATH SIMILAR TO BAMS WITH FIRST PERIOD LEAN TOWARD
BAMM. THEREAFTER A GRADUALIZED SHIFT TOWARD THE AVIATION MODELS
MORE WESTERLY TRACK. SATELLITE INDICATIONS ARE OF A DECREASE IN
WINDS TO 25 KT...BUT WINDS OF 30 KT STILL NOTED IN SHIP OBSERVATION
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO BUTTING UP AGAINST HIGHER
PRESSURE THERE. WILL THUS MAINTAIN 30 KT WINDS THROUGH 36 HOURS
WITH RAPID DISSIPATION FOLLOWING AS IT MOVES INTO LESS FAVORABLE
POSITION WITH RESPECT TO UPPER TROUGH. FARRELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     11/2100Z 28.7N 143.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 29.5N 144.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 30.8N 146.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 32.0N 148.9W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     13/1800Z 33.5N 152.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     14/1800Z 36.3N 159.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED

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