Subject: Pacific-NC: Tropical Depression Four-c Discussion Number 4

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Oct 1997 20:23:35 -0600

957
WTPA44 PHNL 010300
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER  4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST FRI OCT 31 1997

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
WEAKEN...

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST...AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH REMAINS ALMOST
THE SAME INTENSITY AS SIX HOURS AGO. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM MODELS. THE AVIATION MODEL TRACKS THE
SYSTEM ON A CURVING NORTHWARD TRACK...BUT WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
NOW SOME DISTANCE FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...THIS
APPEARS QUITE UNLIKELY.

FARRELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     01/0300Z 10.2N 173.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z  9.7N 175.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     02/0000Z  9.7N 179.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED

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