Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Ten-e Discussion Number 7

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 11 Aug 1997 09:30:43 -0500

577
WTPZ45 KNHC 111429
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 11 1997

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E REMAINS WEAK. A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN THE PAST SIX HOURS.  THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTHWEST. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KNOTS...AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE INHIBITED IN THE SHORT TERM DUE
TO THE SHEARING.  I HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE MORE ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW MOVES WESTWARD FAST ENOUGH AND SEPARATES SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE
DEPRESSION AS FORECAST BY THE AVIATION MODEL.  HOWEVER...IF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THIS
STRENGTHENING MAY NEVER OCCUR.  OUR CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIFOR AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO FIND IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A GUESS AT A CENTER NEAR THE SMALL CLUSTER
OF DEEP CONVECTION FITS A REASONABLE EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE LAST
INFRARED FIX. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/04. THE CURRENT TRACK
DIRECTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS. HOWEVER THE TRACK SPEED
IS MUCH SLOWER THAN BEFORE...BUT SLOWLY INCREASES WITH TIME.

JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     11/1500Z 12.8N 116.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 13.1N 116.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 13.5N 117.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 14.1N 118.4W    35 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 14.6N 119.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 15.6N 122.0W    45 KTS

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