Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 18 Nov 1997 00:52:36 -0600

211
ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/180600Z/190600Z NOV 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/180151Z NOV 97//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/180321Z NOV 97//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
 (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21N3 168E5 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. ANIMATED
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TROPICAL UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT WAS LOCATED ABOVE THE AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST AND NOW AN ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING GOOD UP
PER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FOR THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1010MB. SEE REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 1803
30)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
 (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 9N9
171E9. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM KWAJALEIN (WMO
91366) AND MAJURO (WMO 91376) INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE REGION WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIM
UM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
 (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
 (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.5S3 170.0E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 165.4E6 AND IS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. ANIMATED VISUAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS CONVECTION HAS BEC
OME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CENTRALLY LOCATED. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN
ED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 180200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
 (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/HILDEBRAND/SANCHEZ/HALL/JONES//

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