Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 16

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Oct 1997 07:58:44 -0600

950
WTPN31 PGTW 311500
1. TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 16
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311200Z7 --- 9.8N7 155.8E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N7 155.8E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 10.8N9 153.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 11.8N0 151.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 12.7N0 148.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 13.6N0 146.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 15.3N9 140.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION 10.1N2  155.3E4
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS RESUMED
RAPID INTENSIFICATION WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS.  AN EYE HAS BECOME VERY SHARP AND DISTINCT
IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO
COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE EYE.  TYPHOON KEITH HAS
MADE A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 03 TO
05 HOURS WHICH MAY ONLY BE A TEMPORARY TREND DUE TO
BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF THE EYE.  OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 TO
125 KNOTS) FROM JTWC, KGWC, AND KWBC SATELLITE ANALYSTS,
AND RECENT WARMING OF THE EYE.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 24 FEET.  REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2), 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0), 10900Z0
(DTG 010753Z6) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3).//

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