Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 4 [311430]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 31 Jul 1997 09:29:50 -0500

180
WTPZ44 KNHC 311430
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUL 31 1997

FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GUILLERMO HAS A
BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER...DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND IT APPEARS TO
BE A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE POSITION PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
GUILLERMO HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE VERY MUCH AND CONSISTS OF TWO
FAIRLY ILL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITHOUT CENTRAL FEATURES. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS SUPPORT ONLY 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME BUT A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED SINCE THE WATER IS WARM AND THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/06.  THERE IS A LARGE
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THE FLOW AROUND THAT HIGH WOULD LIKELY STEERED GUILLERMO TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS MOTION IS ALSO INDICATED BY MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS EXCEPT NGAPS WHICH IS FASTER AND MOVES THE SYSTEM NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 3 DAYS.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     31/1500Z 13.1N  97.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 13.6N  98.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 14.0N 100.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 102.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 104.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 16.0N 109.0W    70 KTS

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