Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number 18 [040240]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 3 Aug 1997 21:41:31 -0500

197
WTPZ44 KNHC 040240
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 1997

NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT GAVE US THREE CENTER FIXES DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 923
AND 930 MB AND THE HIGHEST 700 MB LEVEL WINDS WERE 145 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE EYE FEATURE TEMPORARILY DISSAPPEARED
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT IT IS BACK AGAIN.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
DECREASED WITHOUT THE EYE BUT ARE COMING BACK UP.  SO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY WIND SPEED OF 135 KNOTS LOOKS GOOD AND THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES
ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION WITH A STRONG RIDGE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE HURRICANE.  THE GFLD AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW A FASTER FORWARD
MOTION AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THESE
TWO MODELS.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     04/0300Z 14.0N 113.2W   135 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.2N 114.9W   135 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 14.5N 117.2W   130 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 14.9N 119.8W   125 KTS
48HR VT     06/0000Z 15.4N 122.5W   120 KTS
72HR VT     07/0000Z 16.3N 127.5W   110 KTS

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