Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 26 Oct 1997 12:10:56 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

841
ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN
OCEAN/261800Z/271800Z OCT 97//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY NEAR 07N7 56E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 09.5N4
54.5E4.  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 261200Z1 SYNOPTIC
DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE.  THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HINDERED BY LAND
INTERACTION SINCE THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHWEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
SOMALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL
REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER
THE GULF OF ADEN IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR
MORE THAN 12 HOURS NEAR 7.5N2 75.0E2.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/GILLESS/HATFIELD/HONG/UROGI//

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