Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Nov 1997 20:35:51 -0600

396
WTIO32 PGTW 110300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- 12.3N6 66.8E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY EXTRAPOLATION
     AND SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N6 66.8E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 13.0N4 65.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 13.8N2 64.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 14.6N1 63.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 15.2N8 63.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 16.5N2 62.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION 12.5N8   66.5E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND HAS INTENSIFIED. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 102200Z5 SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF CI3.0 (45 TO 50 KNOTS) AND THE
PRESENCE OF A LARGE CDO FEATURE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE AMONG OUR FORECAST AIDS AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS.
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS TRACK TC 04A WESTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN OMAN WHEREAS THE OUR DYNAMIC AID, GFDN, SLOWLY
RECURVES THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. OUR FORECAST IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF OUR OBJECTIVES AIDS ENVELOPE WITH A SLOW
NORTHWARD TRACK INDICATED AFTER 48 HOURS. THE 101200Z4
NOGAPS MODEL RUN DEVELOPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST
AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS WHICH
APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH ANIMATION OF METEOSAT IMAGERY.
HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ARABIAN SEA AND SAUDI ARABIA
IS STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER, ALMOST ALL OF OUR FORECAST
GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY DECREASING THE FORWARD
MOTION OF TC 04A. WE EXPECT TC 04A TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5), 111500Z8 (DTG
111351Z2), 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8) AND 120300Z6 DTG
120151Z0).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.