Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 20

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 1 Nov 1997 09:37:56 -0600

665
WTPN31 PGTW 011500
1. SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 20
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z4 --- 12.7N0 150.0E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N0 150.0E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 13.7N1 146.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 14.2N7 143.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 14.8N3 141.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 15.4N0 138.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 16.7N4 134.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION 13.0N4  149.2E6
SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WHILE
ACCELERATING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF CI 7.5 (155 KNOTS) AND A CIRCULAR,
20 NM DIAMETER EYE THAT HAS WARMED TO 24 DEGREES CELSIUS.
SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF POSSIBLY
MAKING A TURN MORE TO THE WEST, BUT WE ARE GOING TO WAIT
FOR ADDITIONAL FIX INFORMATION DURING THE NEXT 3 HOURS
BEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES. IF NEW RADAR
AND SATELLITE FIX INFORMATION INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK, THEN WE WILL AMEND THIS WARNING AND TAKE THE TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROTA CHANNEL OR
NORTHERN END OF GUAM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z4 IS 40 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 (DTG
011953Z9), 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1), 020900Z1 (DTG
020753Z7) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021353Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM LINDA (30W) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUHGSGG30273051353

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