Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm Paka (05c) Warning Nr 018

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Dec 1997 14:15:34 -0600

439
WTPN31 PGTW 062100
1. TROPICAL STORM PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 018
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN WESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- 8.9N7 179.5W2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N7 179.5W2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 9.0N9 178.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 9.1N0 176.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 9.3N2 174.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 9.8N7 172.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 12.0N3 169.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU) ON TROPICAL STORM
PAKA (05C). THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 061730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM PAKA HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
BUT STILL REMAINS DISORGANIZED. WATER VAPOR DERIVED WINDS
SHOW THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TS PAKA
TRACKS TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY
FLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO TURN THE STORM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK AT THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM IS
ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 15 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070400Z1, 071000Z8,
071600Z4 AND 072200Z1.//

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