Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 27 Oct 1997 00:47:39 -0600

509
ABPW10 PGTW 270600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/270600Z/280600Z OCT 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/270151ZOCT97//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/270453ZOCT97//
NARR/REF A, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P WARNING NR 02 (WTPS31
PGTW 270300), REF B, TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 270500)//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7N7 169E6 HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. 270000Z9
SYNOPTIC DATA FROM AILINGLAPALAP (WMO 91367) AND JALUIT
(WMO 91369) SHOWED A DISTINCT SURFACE CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB.
SEE REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
270500)) FOR FURTHER  DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE  DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9N9 135E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8N8 136E0. 270000Z9
SYNOPTIC DATA FROM YAP (WMO 91413) AND KOROR (WMO 91408)
AND A 262330Z2 SSM/I PASS SHOWS A MONSOON LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS SHOW
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
IS MODERATELY STRONG OVER THIS AREA RESULTING IN MOST OF
THE CONVECTION LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE
CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 270000Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P WAS LOCATED AT
13.5S9 173.5E6 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P
WARNING NR 02 (WTPS31 PGTW 270300)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/HILDEBRAND/SANCHEZ/HALL//

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