Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Ten-e Discussion Number 1

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 9 Aug 1997 21:32:15 -0500

294
WTPZ45 KNHC 100230
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 1997

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS GONE FROM ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST...TO
NEARLY CIRCULAR.  DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE SYSTEM ALOFT.  ADVISORIES ARE NOW INITIATED ON THAT
SYSTEM...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT NEARBY LARGE SCALE FEATURE NOTED ON SATELLITE
PICTURES IS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE NNW OF THE
DEPRESSION...BETWEEN THE TD AND GUILLERMO.  WHILE THERE WAS NO 18Z
AVN OUTPUT AVAILABLE...THE 12Z RUN APPEARS TO HAVE HAD A GOOD
INITIAL HANDLE ON THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE AT
THAT TIME.  THAT MODEL ALSO SHOWED A 700 MB HIGH MOVING WNW FROM
NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE MODEL AND THE
TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM IT SHOW THE CYCLONE CONTINUING ON THE
NORTHWEST COURSE WITH SOME ACCELERATION WHILE REMAINING ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.  SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT.  WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THIS COULD BE A DIURNAL TREND.
BOTH CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY SCHEME SUGGEST
STRENGTHENING.  THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PATTERN OBSERVED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...UNLESS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES TOO CLOSE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     10/0300Z 10.9N 114.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     10/1200Z 11.6N 115.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     11/0000Z 12.3N 116.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     11/1200Z 13.1N 117.9W    45 KTS
48HR VT     12/0000Z 13.9N 119.3W    55 KTS
72HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 122.5W    60 KTS

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