Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Jimena Discussion Number 14

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Aug 1997 15:46:02 -0500

769
WTPZ42 KNHC 282047
TCDEP2
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 28 1997

DIGITAL DVORAK T-NUMBERS INDICATE THAT JIMENA HAS BEEN NEAR A T6.0
DURING THE DAY...SO INITIAL WINDSPEED IS ADJUSTED BACK TO 115 KNOTS.

HOWEVER A WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED...SINCE CONVECTION
IS DECREASING AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  WEAKENING SHOULD
ACCELERATE AS A RESULT OF INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLING SEA
TEMPS.

MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE RIGHT TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  IT IS
STILL EXPECTED THAT...WHEN JIMENA WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY...A TURN TO
THE LEFT WILL OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL STEERING BEGINS TO DOMINATE.
CURIOUSLY...THE SHALLOW-LAYER BAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS WESTWARD TURN
EVEN THOUGH LOW-CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGEST A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AT
THIS TIME.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     28/2100Z 19.3N 138.1W   115 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 20.9N 139.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 22.5N 140.0W    85 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 23.5N 141.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 24.5N 143.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     31/1800Z 25.5N 145.0W    30 KTS

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