Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 21 Nov 1997 15:30:50 -0600

089
ABPW10 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/212100Z/220600Z NOV 97//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
 (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26N8 160E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24N6 161E8. MODERATE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF A TUTT CELL CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THIS AREA. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST HAS MERGED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT
IN THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1015 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
 (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
26N8 137E1 IS DISSIPATED AND NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
 (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 07S7 173E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 08S8 166E3. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA STILL INDICATE A BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, CENTRAL CONVECTION APPEARS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SINGLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MINIMAL AS INDICATED BY
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
FAIR.
 (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR RE-ISSUANCE: UPGRADE SUSPECT AREA TO
FAIR IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1).
      FORECAST TEAM:
BOYD/BOYER/LUNSFORD/DEOCARIZA/JOHNSON/GILL//

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