Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 21 [191432]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 19 Jul 1997 09:31:36 -0500

312
WTPZ43 KNHC 191432
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 1997

THE AVERAGE DVORAK T-NUMBER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS REMAINS
6.0...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
FELICIA IS CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM AT THIS TIME SO GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/14.  FELICIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THIS RIDGE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GENTLE BEND TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS CLOSER TO CLIPER
THAN TO THE BAM GUIDANCE.  THE LATTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
FASTER.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     19/1500Z 15.8N 128.8W   115 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 16.0N 130.9W   105 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.4N 133.5W    90 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 16.9N 136.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 138.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W    45 KTS

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