Subject: Pacific-EN: National Weather Service Miami Fl

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 7 Nov 1997 14:42:32 -0600

921
WTPZ44 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST FRI NOV 07 1997

A SECOND CIRCULATION CENTER DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER SSW OF ACAPULCO LAST NIGHT AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED
OVER THIS NEW CENTER TODAY.  SOME BANDING FEATURES ARE OBSERVED AS
WELL.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT STARTING
ADVISORIES ON THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THE VERGE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.

INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 330/6 KT.  SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A
LARGE...MOSTLY LOW LEVEL...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE 06Z AND 12Z
INITIALIZATION OF THE AVN AT 850 MB BEAR LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO WHAT
SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST IS REALITY.  THE 500 MB ANALYSIS LOOKS
MORE REASONABLE AND THE TRACK FORECASTS BASED ON THE AVN ALSO SEEM
CREDIBLE.  THEY SHOW THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST...WITH A POTENTIAL THREAT TO SOUTHWEST
MEXICO IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SIMILAR
TRACK.

THE SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS
THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN RATHER QUICKLY.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     07/2100Z 10.9N 103.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 11.7N 104.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 12.8N 104.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 13.8N 103.6W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 14.7N 102.7W    55 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 16.5N 100.5W    60 KTS

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