Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 032

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 4 Nov 1997 07:59:38 -0600

938
WTPN31 PGTW 041500
1. TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 032
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z7 --- 17.1N9 135.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            250 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N9 135.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 18.0N9 134.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            180 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 19.0N0 134.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 20.4N6 134.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 22.0N4 135.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 26.3N1 138.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION 17.3N1  135.5E4
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TYPHOON
KEITH (29W) HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST TO 8 KNOTS. THIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY KEITH HAS
A 30 NM RAGGED EYE WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS. FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONTINUED SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST MOTION
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS CURRENT
NUMERICAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGN OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORWARD ACCELERATION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 040115Z1 SCATTEROMETER
PASS AND SURROUNDING SHIP REPORTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 30 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z7 (DTG 041953Z2), 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4), 050900Z4
(DTG 050753Z0) AND 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7).//

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