Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number 27

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 6 Aug 1997 03:31:25 -0500

321
WTPZ44 KNHC 060831
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 06 1997

THE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE HAS BEEN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING...AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY.  MY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE ABOVE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK RULES FOR WEAKENING
SYSTEMS...WHICH KEEP WINDS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE DATA T-NUMBER
WOULD INDICATE.  IN ANY EVENT...THE WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.  A MORE RAPID DECLINE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SINCE SSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 26 DEG
C AFTER 36 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION...280/14...IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A FEW TENTHS
OF A DEGREE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL RUN AND CLIPER.  THE
GFDL...NOGAPS AND AVN MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
THIS IS APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING IN THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GUILLERMO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IF THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS TREND...A FARTHER NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE NHC TRACK FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     06/0900Z 15.3N 125.9W   120 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.6N 128.0W   115 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 16.2N 130.7W   110 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 133.3W   105 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 17.8N 135.8W    95 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 19.5N 140.0W    75 KTS

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