Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number 19 [040834]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 4 Aug 1997 03:35:01 -0500

121
WTPZ44 KNHC 040834
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 04 1997

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS ON SUNDAY.  CLOUD TOPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND
THE EYE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THIS IS STILL A
VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 130
KNOTS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS.
GUILLERMO MAY BE UNDERGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...IN WHICH
CASE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS TYPICALLY OCCUR.  THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS NO LARGE
INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR TODAY.  GUILLERMO SHOULD MORE OR LESS
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE.

CURRENT MOTION IS WESTWARD NEAR 12 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES IN THE EYE MOVEMENT.  WE CONTINUE TO SEE A
STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IN THE AVN
MODEL FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE
WEST TRACK IS FORECAST AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  THE GFDL MODEL
FORECAST MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND A LITTLE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST.

THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADIUS HAS BEEN IN INCREASED TO THE
SOUTHEAST BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER
CENTER.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     04/0900Z 14.0N 114.5W   130 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.1N 116.4W   130 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 118.8W   125 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 14.9N 121.3W   120 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 15.2N 123.5W   115 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W   105 KTS

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