Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Jimena Discussion Number 7

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Aug 1997 21:27:08 -0500

283
WTPZ42 KNHC 270228
TCDEP2
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 1997

OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE PULLED BACK JUST A BIT FROM EARLIER WHILE
THE FORMAL APPLICATION ESTIMATES PLAY CATCH UP.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS NOW SET AT 100 KT.  JIMENA HAS A SMALL PATTERN OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED EYE.  THE EYE HAS BEEN
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 4 OR 5 KT THIS EVENING.

THE 18Z AVN...LIKE THE 12Z RUN...IS POORLY INITIALIZED WITH A LOW-
LEVEL VORTEX SEEMINGLY MUCH STRONGER THAN JIMENA PLACED ABOUT 10
DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE 18Z AVN
TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN EARLIER AND THIS IS MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE OBSERVED MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH ALL
GUIDANCE HEADS FROM W TO NW.  THE NHC TRACK IS ALSO SLOWED A LITTLE
MORE AND SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT
NORTHWARD HEADING.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     27/0300Z 12.5N 135.7W   100 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 13.0N 135.8W   115 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 13.7N 136.3W   115 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 14.6N 137.5W   110 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 15.5N 139.1W   100 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N 142.5W    85 KTS

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