Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 13 [151456]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Jul 1997 10:25:25 -0500

917
WTPZ42 KNHC 151456
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 1997

ENRIQUE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SSTS AND WIND
SHEAR.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED.  HENCE...
ENRIQUE IS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE IR CLOUD
PATTERN IS NOT VERY HELPFUL IN IDENTIFYING THE LOCATION OF THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  SOME REPOSITIONING MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE
NEXT ADVISORY WHEN VISIBLE PICTURES WILL BE AVAILABLE.  INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/15 KT.

MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES STREAMING NORTHWARD...DRAWN
AWAY FROM THE CENTER BY THE LOW ALOFT TO THE NW.  AS ENRIQUE
WEAKENS...THE IMPACT OF THIS LOW ON THE TRACK SHOULD DIMINISH.  THE
TRACK RESEMBLES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOWS A TRANSITION FROM
DEEP TO SHALLOW STEERING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WNW AND
THEN...PERHAPS...THE WEST.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     15/1500Z 19.0N 128.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 20.5N 130.4W    45 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 21.7N 131.9W    35 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 22.8N 133.4W    30 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 23.6N 135.2W    25 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 24.5N 137.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING

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