Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Rick Discussion Number 6

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 8 Nov 1997 20:24:56 -0600

161
WTPZ44 KNHC 090224
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM PST SAT NOV 08 1997

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND SOME BANDING FEATURES. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
3.0+ AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  SINCE THE WIND SHEAR
IS LIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INCREASES THE WIND TO 60
KNOTS BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT RICK MAY REACH THE COAST AS A
HURRICANE AS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS97.  THEREFORE A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED.  JUST A REMAINDER...THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY
FORECAST.

RICK HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 11
KNOTS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-ESTABLISHED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CONSEQUENTLY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION
IS ANTICIPATED AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS.  ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLIER.   FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A PROBLEM FOR THIS PREVIOUSLY
HIT AREAS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SOME POINTS OVER THE BAY CAMPECHE BEYOND
48 HOURS BUT BY THEN...RICK IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     09/0300Z 14.5N 101.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 15.7N 100.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N  99.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N  97.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N  94.5W    20 KTS
72HR VT     12/0000Z 19.5N  92.0W    20 KTS

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