Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 039

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Dec 1997 20:54:05 -0600

437
WTPN31 PGTW 120300
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 039
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z3 --- 7.6N3 166.5E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM

PAGE 03 RUEDMCA0392 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N3 166.5E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 7.9N6 165.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 8.1N9 163.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

PAGE 04 RUEDMCA0392 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 8.4N2 161.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 8.8N6 159.8E3

PAGE 05 RUEDMCA0392 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 9.5N4 156.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION: 7.7N4 166.3E6
TYPHOON PAKA (05C) HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

PAGE 06 RUEDMCA0392 UNCLAS //NO3145//
AT 9 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 112330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
120000Z DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATION FROM KWAJALEIN (WMO
91366).  THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER RAPIDLY DEVELOPING, AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE DERIVED
ESTIMATE OF 105 KNOTS.  TYPHOON PAKA (05C) SHOULD TRACK A
LITTLE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT THEN
TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THIS TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTHWARD
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  TYPHOON PAKA (05C) SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALTHOUGH AT A SLOWER RATE AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 23 FEET.  REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6), 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3),
122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9) AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1).//
BT
#0392

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