Subject: Pacific-NC: Tropical Storm Paka Discussion Number 5

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 3 Dec 1997 09:16:15 -0600

026
WTPA41 PHNL 031500
TROPICAL STORM PAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST WED DEC 03 1997

PAKA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING IN
THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER OUTFLOW SEEMS TO BE STRONG AND NEW
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A FEEDER BAND IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE FORECAST CONTINUES A SLOW NORTHWEST TRACK
AND INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. LATER THE TRACK
TURNS MORE WESTWARD AND THE INTENSIFICATION ENDS AS PAKA MOVES
INTO A MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THAT OF
THE GFDL AND THE SHALLOW BETA ADVECTION MODEL BUT AT A SLOWER
WESTWARD SPEED. THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP PAKA THROUGH THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER SINCE PAKA HAS BEEN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THE PAST 24
HOURS AND HAS SHOWN ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THIS FORECAST IS NO
LONGER ACCEPTED. LARSON

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     03/1500Z  8.5N 167.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z  8.9N 168.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z  9.3N 169.7W    55 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z  9.6N 171.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z  9.9N 173.4W    50 KTS
72HR VT     06/1200Z 10.4N 178.2W    45 KTS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.