Subject: Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 26 Jan 1997 19:24:22 -0600

663
WTXS32 PGTW 270300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNING NR 017
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- 25.7S4 38.8E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S4 38.8E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 26.2S0 37.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 26.6S4 37.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 27.1S0 37.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 27.9S8 36.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION 25.8S5   38.5E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEAKENED REGION OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM,
TC 20S (GRETELLE) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5
(DTG 271355Z3) AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280155Z1). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 17 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.