Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 6 [152046]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Jul 1997 15:52:54 -0500

935
WTPZ43 KNHC 152046
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 1997

CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRANSIENT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  HOWEVER
...THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE
CLASSIFICATION SITES SUPPORT UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM
FELICIA.  WINDS ARE SET AT 35 KT.  THIS STATUS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE TRACK OF THE CENTER HAS SHIFTED A
BIT TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW NEAR 315/8 KT.

THE 18Z AVN IS SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR IN SHOWING A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN RESPONSE...THE AVN BENDS THE
TRACK BACK TOWARD THE WEST.  IN FACT...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS
SHOW THE OBSERVED NW HEADING.  ALL NWS MODELS HEAD TOWARD THE WNW.
THE NHC FORECAST TRACK TURNS THE TRACK BACK TOWARD THE WNW.

MODEST INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR IF THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
DIMINISHES.  THE AVN MODEL FORECASTS THAT TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     15/2100Z 12.8N 113.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.5N 114.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.3N 115.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 15.2N 117.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W    50 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W    55 KTS

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