Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Nineteen-e Discussion Number 4

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 8 Nov 1997 08:32:54 -0600

276
WTPZ44 KNHC 081433
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM PST SAT NOV 08 1997

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TWO ASSOCIATED BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  A SHIP 30 NM SOUTH OF
THE CENTER AT 12Z REPORTED WINDS OF 25 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB.
STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWARD AT 6 KT.  THE AVN SHOWS THE
WESTERLIES SAGGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
U.S. WEST COAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A CONTINUED INCREASE
IN THE EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS AS WELL.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     08/1500Z 13.0N 103.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 14.1N 103.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.6N 102.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 16.8N 101.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 17.9N  99.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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