Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 10

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 1997 03:29:40 +1900

939
WTPZ45 KNHC 120827
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HILDA.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 FROM SAB AND AFGWC AND THE T2.0 FROM
TAFB.  THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM MAY FINALLY BE ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW SOMEWHAT.  THE FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT OF HILDA WILL DEPEND IN PART ON THE SEPARATION BETWEEN
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE STORM.  OUR INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...SOMEWHAT LESS THAN INDICATED BY
SHIPS AND SHIFOR GUIDANCE...BUT MORE THAN SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL
MODEL.  IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWER THAN HILDA...SHEARING
WILL AGAIN INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.

THERE ARE NO CLEAR CUT CENTRAL FEATURES IN THE BURSTING TYPE
PATTERN...AND OUR SATELLITE FIXES ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.  BEST GUESS AT
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/08.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL RELATIVELY
WEAK...IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  OUR TRACK IS
ALONG THE LINE OF THE SHALLOW BAM...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER.  THIS IS
STILL FASTER THAN THE NHC90 AND NOGAPS.  IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS
MORE THAN FORECAST...IT COULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE RIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     12/0900Z 13.2N 118.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 13.5N 120.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.1N 122.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 124.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 127.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W    45 KTS

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