Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Ten-e Discussion Number 2

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 10 Aug 1997 03:25:27 -0500

252
WTPZ45 KNHC 100823
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BANDING TYPE PATTERN WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS
30 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED AS LONG AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL
GUIDANCE AND SHIPS INTENSITY SCHEME.

THE DEPRESSION IS STILL GETTING ORGANIZED...AND THE CLOUD SYSTEM
CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  SATELLITE FIXES ARE JUMPING AROUND A
LITTLE AS USUAL ON A WEAK SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER
HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N120W WHICH
WOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH IF THE LOW WERE TO
REMAIN STATIONARY.  HOWEVER...THE NWS AVIATION MODEL INITIALIZES THE
LOW WELL...THEN MOVES IT WESTWARD AND WEAKENS IT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
IN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IF THIS VERIFIES...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH TIME.  OUR
CURRENT FORECAST IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL P91E GUIDANCE.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     10/0900Z 11.2N 114.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 11.8N 115.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 12.4N 116.1W    40 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 13.3N 117.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     12/0600Z 14.2N 118.9W    55 KTS
72HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 122.5W    60 KTS

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