Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 067

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Dec 1997 21:26:38 -0600

571
WTPN31 PGTW 190300
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 067
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z0 --- 15.3N9 136.3E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG7590 UNCLAS
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N9 136.3E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 15.7N3 134.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG7590 UNCLAS
   200000Z2 --- 16.1N8 132.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 16.9N6 131.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 17.0N8 130.3E7

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG7590 UNCLAS
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 16.6N3 127.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS: 190300Z3 POSITION: 15.4N0 135.9E8
TYPHOON PAKA (05C) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. THE
LASTEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS DECREASED TO 115 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN AFTER THE 24
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH

PAGE 06 RUHPSGG7590 UNCLAS
FROM THE WEST.  AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE
NORTH A WESTWARD TRACK WILL RESUME NEAR THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG
190751Z), 191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z), 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z),
AND 200300Z5 (200151Z).//
BT
#7590

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