Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 022

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 1 Nov 1997 20:05:39 -0600

251
WTPN31 PGTW 020300
1. SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 022
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z2 --- 13.9N3 147.2E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N3 147.2E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 14.5N0 144.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 15.2N8 141.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 15.9N5 139.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            165 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 16.9N6 137.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            165 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 19.1N1 135.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION 14.1N6  146.5E6
SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR AT PEAK
INTENSITY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER, STY
KEITH (29W) CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE AND HAS BEEN ON A
WESTWARD JOG OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE A TEMPORARY TREND BASED ON PAST BEHAVIOR. TIME OF
CPA OVER ROTA IS 020900Z1. BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS,
SLOWING AND A MORE NORTHWARD COURSE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
IN PREPARATION FOR AN EVENTUAL RECURVE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 45 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7), 021500Z8 (DTG
021353Z4), 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0) AND 030300Z6 (DTG
030153Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM LINDA (30W) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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