Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm Keith (29w) Warning Nr 010

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Oct 1997 20:02:14 -0600

858
WTPN31 PGTW 300300
1. TROPICAL STORM KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z3 --- 7.6N3 161.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N3 161.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 7.9N6 159.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 8.5N3 157.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 9.3N2 155.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 10.4N5 153.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 12.8N1 147.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION  7.7N4  161.1E9
TROPICAL STORM KEITH (29W) HAS REACHED AN INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS BASED ON BOTH INFRARED AND VISUAL 292330Z9
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS MOVING AT 9 KNOTS TO THE WEST.
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MUCH MORE
ORGANIZED AND IS FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THROUGH THE 12 TO 24 HOUR
POSITIONS, TS KEITH IS FORECAST TO MOVE PRIMARILY TOWARD
THE WEST AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO
THE NORTH. AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE IN A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. CURRENT WIND
RADII ARE BASED ON A 291205Z9 SCATTEROMETER PASS AND
SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300900Z2 (DTG 300751Z6), 301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3),
302100Z6 (DTG 301951Z9) AND 310300Z7 (DTG 310151Z1).//

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