Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 13

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Oct 1997 14:14:27 -0600

734
WTPN31 PGTW 302100
1. TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 13
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301800Z2 --- 8.6N4 158.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N4 158.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 9.3N2 155.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 10.1N2 153.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 11.1N3 150.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 12.2N5 148.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 14.7N2 143.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION  8.8N6  157.6E9
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS
UNDERGONE RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING WHILE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATING. OUR WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 21 NM RAGGED EYE AND A 301730Z4
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS). WE
EXPECT TYPHOON KEITH TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND
REACH SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH (130 KNOTS) WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS BASED ON THE FAVORABLE INFLOW-OUTFLOW
PATTERN THAT HAS DEVELOPED. THERE IS NO COMPETITION FOR
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WITH KEITH BEING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
CIRCULATION IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN. ALSO, MANUAL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AT 301200Z6 INDICATES TYPHOON KEITH=S
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS LINKED UP WITH 3 TUTT CELLS TO
THE NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST, AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH
ARE ACTING AS MASS SINKS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS
CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND FOR KEITH TO
MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY WHEN IT TRAVERSES THE
SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS IN ABOUT 60 HOURS AS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3), 310900Z3 (DTG
310753Z9), 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6) AND 312100Z7 (DTG
311953Z2).//

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