Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 060

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 17 Dec 1997 01:06:40 -0600

419
WTPN31 PGTW 170900
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 060
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z4 --- 13.7N1 142.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 142.1E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 13.7N1 140.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 13.7N1 138.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 13.8N2 136.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 14.0N5 134.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 14.3N8 131.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION: 13.7N1 141.4E0
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY PAKA (05C) HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST AT 9 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 125 KNOTS. OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUDS
OUTSIDE THE EYE WALL HAVE BECOME COLDER AS THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BECOME MORE COMPACT.  IF THE CLOUD TOPS
CONTINUE TO COOL THE INTENSITY MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) SHOWED TYPHOON
PAKA NOW HAS A SINGLE EYE FEATURE THAT MEASURES 26NM IN
DIAMETER. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS SIMILAR
AS PAKA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE 72 HOUR PERIOD
A WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH
ACCOUNTS FOR THE SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. TYPHOON PAKA IS STILL EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THE WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN SLOWED CONSIDERABLY
BASED ON THE RECENT INTENSITY INCREASE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 38 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171351Z),
172100Z1 (DTG 171951Z), 180300Z2 (DTG 180151Z) AND
180900Z8 (180751Z).//

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