Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 047

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Dec 1997 21:29:35 -0600

906
WTPN31 PGTW 140300
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 047
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z5 --- 10.4N5 157.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 03 RUEOMCB4915 UNCLAS //NO3145//
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N5 157.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 11.1N3 154.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 11.9N1 152.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM

PAGE 04 RUEOMCB4915 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 12.7N0 150.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 13.3N7 147.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

PAGE 05 RUEOMCB4915 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 13.5N9 143.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS: 140300Z8 POSITION:  10.6N 156.8E0
TYPHOON PAKA (05C) HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED TO 16 KNOTS WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. LATEST VISUAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

PAGE 06 RUEOMCB4915 UNCLAS //NO3145//
INDICATE THAT TYPHOON PAKA (05C) HAS A WELL DEFINED 11NM
EYE WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. CONDITIONS
ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION.
TYPHOON PAKA (05C) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A WEST-
NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD
AND THEN WESTWARD THEREAFTER. OUTER WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE WHILE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BASED
ON THE LATEST 131115Z2 SCATTEROMETER PASS AND CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 29 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z), 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z), 142100Z8
(DTG 141951Z), AND 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z).//
BT
#4915

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