Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 17

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 13 Aug 1997 21:38:05 +1900

729
WTPZ45 KNHC 140235
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 13 1997

HILDA DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS SHEARING THE UPPER PART OF THE
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  HILDA SEEMS TO BE MOVING IN
TANDEM WITH THIS LOW.  LAST VISIBLE PICTURES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER
WAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH-CLOUD OVERCAST.  DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN PULSATING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...HAS DIMINISHED.  THE SYSTEM IS BARELY OF TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH HILDA COULD MAKE A COMEBACK...A
CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT TREND WOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM
WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION...AND DISSIPATING IN A FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER
I HAVE MAINTAINED THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SINCE WE
ARE NOT THAT CERTAIN THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HOSTILE
FOR RE-STRENGTHENING.

INITIAL MOTION...290/10...IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY.
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PREDICTIONS BY THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SUPPORT
A CONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
MODEL TRACKS.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     14/0300Z 15.3N 125.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.8N 126.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.4N 128.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 130.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.7N 132.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 136.0W    30 KTS

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