Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 17

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Aug 1997 09:53:28 -0500

652
WTPZ42 KNHC 291454
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 1997

GOES9 INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE 1230Z SHOWS THAT DRASTIC SHEARING HAS
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND THE NEAREST CONVECTION IS ABOUT 200 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO
55 KNOTS AND THIS IS PROBABLY AN OVERESTIMATE.  DISSIPATION SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEEN
REDUCED TO A LOW CLOUD SWIRL.

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW BEING STEERED BY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL SHOWS VERY
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS RESULTING FROM A
HIGH NORTHWEST OF THE STORM BLOCKING ITS PROGRESS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
ONLY GOES TO 48 HOURS BY WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
DISSIPATED.  THE UKMET MODEL SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO.

SINCE THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST OF 140 DEGRESS WEST
LONGITUDE...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN H0NOLULU.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     29/1500Z 20.8N 140.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 21.6N 141.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 22.8N 143.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 24.0N 143.9W    25 KTS
48HR VT     31/1200Z 25.0N 144.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     01/1200Z                          DISSIPATED

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