Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01s Warning Nr 010 [222100]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Jul 1997 15:45:12 -0500

637
WTXS31 PGTW 222100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z3 --- 9.2S1 75.4E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 75.4E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 10.0S1 74.7E8

PAGE 03 RUHGSGG4372 UNCLAS
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 11.1S3 74.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 12.1S4 73.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER

PAGE 04 RUHGSGG4372 UNCLAS
WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 13.0S4 72.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION  9.4S3   75.2E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 221730Z
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON 211746Z SATELLITE SCATTEROMETRY DATA.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE
TO STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A

PAGE 05 RUHGSGG4372 UNCLAS
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER WITHIN 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221730Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 (DTG 230751Z8) AND
232100Z8 (DTG 231951Z1).//
BT
#4372

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