Subject: Pacific-NC: Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 54

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 1997 21:31:41 +1900

342
WTPA44 PHNL 130300
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST TUE AUG 12 1997

GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST WITH
ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CLIPPER AND GFDL MODELS. THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES SINCE
GUILLERMO HAS TAKEN ON SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH CONVECTION
INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CENTER AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CELL TO THE NORTH IS GREATEST. LARSON

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     13/0300Z 31.0N 150.1W    40 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 31.5N 152.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 32.0N 154.9W    35 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 32.6N 157.7W    35 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 33.6N 160.3W    35 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 36.2N 165.1W    30 KTS

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