Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Ten-e Discussion Number 3

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 10 Aug 1997 09:35:56 -0500

473
WTPZ45 KNHC 101435
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 1997

THE FIRST VISIBLE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE INITAL MOTION IS ABOUT
360/05...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  THIS NORTHWARD
MOTION IS BELIEVED TO BE THE RESULT OF STEERING FROM A MID-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THIS
LOW DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD.  THIS  SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE SOME DURING  THE NEXT
3 DAYS AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICALLY BASED TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOMODATE THE INITIAL MOTION.

THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME AS
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND IS NOT INCREASING.
HOWEVER THERE IS GOOD BANDING AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH
VERTICAL SHEAR NEARBY TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  THE WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     10/1500Z 12.0N 114.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 12.8N 114.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 15.5N 117.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 16.0N 119.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     13/1200Z 17.0N 123.0W    60 KTS

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