Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 9

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 9 Nov 1997 08:46:07 -0600

414
WTPZ44 KNHC 091447
TCDEP4
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM PST SUN NOV 09 1997

THE EYE HAS BEEN MAKING OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES ON SATELLITE IMAGES.
THE WALL APPEARS OPEN TO THE SOUTH ON THE ACAPULCO RADAR BUT THIS
PROBABLY DUE TO ATTENUATION FROM THE STRONG RAINBANDS NORTH OF THE
EYE.  SOME OF THESE BANDS ARE ALREADY ONSHORE.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 75 KNOTS...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT
INTENSITY.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
LANDFALL.

MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
CONSEQUENTLY AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE HURRICANE WARNINGS WAS
DONE.  THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
RICK SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...THE STORM SURGE AND ACCOMPANYING
WAVES WILL BE A MAJOR HAZARD.  JUST INLAND... HOWEVER...THE THREAT
BECOMES HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     09/1500Z 15.6N  99.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 16.4N  97.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N  95.5W    35 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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