Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Nov 1997 14:16:54 -0600

405
WTIO32 PGTW 102100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- 12.1N4 67.6E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N4 67.6E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 12.7N0 66.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 13.1N5 64.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 13.6N0 63.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 14.1N6 62.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 14.9N4 60.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION 12.2N5   67.2E5
POSITION BASED ON 101832Z5 SATELLITE FIX FROM AIR FORCE
GLOBAL WEATHER CENTRAL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS).
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 04A IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS
TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG
110151Z9), 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5), 111500Z8 (DTG
111351Z2) AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8).//

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