Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 241021z Jul 97// [241030]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Jul 1997 06:32:37 -0500

653
WTPN21 PGTW 241030
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 241021Z JUL 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/231000Z JUL 97//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
231000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N0
144.5E4 TO 10.8N9 139.1E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 240830Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.6N4 143.5E3.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
SOUTH OF GUAM REMAINS PERISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED.
SYNOPTIC DATA AND ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 251030Z1.//
BT

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