Subject: Pacific-NC: Tropical Depression One-c Discussion Number 1 [270230]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 26 Jul 1997 21:35:31 -0500

453
WTPA41 PHNL 270230
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST SAT JUL 26 1997

ONE-C IS BARELY A DEPRESSION...BUT WITH A WESTWARD TRACK OVER 28C
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48
HOURS.  ALSO...THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND
SHEAR TO PREVENT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

ALL OBJECTIVE AIDS MOVE ONE-C TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST
TRACK FAVORS CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTANCE WHICH...ALONG WITH
EXTRAPOLATION...ARE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.

CRAIG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     27/0300Z 11.4N 164.8W    25 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 11.5N 165.6W    25 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 11.8N 166.9W    25 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 12.1N 168.1W    30 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 12.4N 169.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 13.1N 172.1W    40 KTS

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