Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 038

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Dec 1997 14:32:41 -0600

231
WTPN31 PGTW 112100
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 038
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- 7.4N1 166.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM

PAGE 03 RUEOMCB0837 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N1 166.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 7.7N4 165.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 7.8N5 163.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

PAGE 04 RUEOMCB0837 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 7.9N6 161.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 8.2N0 159.3E8

PAGE 05 RUEOMCB0837 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 8.8N6 154.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION: 7.6N3 166.2E5
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TYPHOON PAKA (05C)

PAGE 06 RUEOMCB0837 UNCLAS //NO3145//
HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY NEAR 100 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 8 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF 111730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
111700Z0 DOPPLER RADAR REPORT FROM KWAJALEIN (WMO 91366).
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS THE SAME AS TY PAKA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS IT IS
INFLUENCED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTERWARDS IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE WEST
AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY EASTERLY FLOW, SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TY PAKA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO REACH
PEAK INTENSITY. AFTERWARDS, TY PAKA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS SUGGESTED BY CLIMATOLOGY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z), 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z), 121500Z9
(DTG 121351Z) AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z).//
BT
#0837

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.