Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Jimena Discussion Number 15

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Aug 1997 21:29:00 -0500

005
WTPZ42 KNHC 290231
TCDEP2
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 28 1997

FOLLOWING THE RESTRENGTHENING OF EARLIER TODAY...JIMENA IS AGAIN
WEAKENING.  THE EYE IS GONE FROM IR AND VISIBLE PICTURES AND THE
EXPECTED SHEARING PATTERN IS DEVELOPING.  LOW CLOUD LINES ARE NOW
ELONGATED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE UPPER CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N147W.  WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND SSTS SLOWLY DECREASING FROM THEIR CURRENT 25-
26C VALUES...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

THE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NNW AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS.  THE
18Z AVN MODEL MAINTAINS AN E-W LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
JIMENA... ALONG 31N...BUT SHOWS IT TO BE RATHER WEAK.  THIS ALLOWS
JIMENA TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NNW TO NORTH...AND HELPS
EXPLAIN WHY BAMS SHOWED A SIMILAR TRACK 6 HOURS AGO.  THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THEIR GUIDANCE AND IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 24-36 HOURS.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     29/0300Z 20.4N 138.1W   105 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 21.7N 138.9W    90 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 23.5N 139.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 25.1N 139.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     31/0000Z 26.5N 140.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 28.0N 140.0W    30 KTS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.