Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 30 Dec 1997 10:11:55 -0600

877
WTXS32 PGTW 301500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z6 --- 16.4S1 101.1E3

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     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 101.1E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 15.6S2 99.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 15.1S7 97.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

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   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION 16.2S9  100.6E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED
SLIGHTLY TO 10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 301130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 09S HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS APPROXIMATELY
40NM AWAY FROM THE CLOSEST DEEP CONVECTION. THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS AN INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.

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NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3).//
BT
#4824

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