Subject: Pacific-NC: Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number 46

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 10 Aug 1997 21:33:16 -0500

650
WTPA44 PHNL 110300
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST SUN AUG 10 1997

GUILLERMO IS STILL HEADING NORTHWESTWARD ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE 24
DEGREE ISOTHERM. LARGER SCALE REARRANGEMENT OF THE FLOW PATTERN IN
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC PLACES A STRONG HIGH NEAR 45N 150W IN 48 TO
72 HOURS. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM 15 DEGREES TO THE
SOUTH WHICH SHOULD DRAW GUILLERMO INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N 150W AND
PERHAPS WARM ITS CORE A LITTLE AS WE THEN WOULD BE OVER 26 DEGREE
WATER WITH MUCH IMPROVED LATENT AND SENSIBLE HEAT TRANSFERS PLUS
GOOD DYNAMICS.  IN OTHER WORDS WILL NOT DROP GUILLERMO TOO QUICKLY.
WILL KEEP WINDS AT 30 KT THRU 36 HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE AT LEAST
THAT STRONG ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION ADJACENT TO THE
BUILDING HIGH. THE TRACK HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY KEPT SOUTH OF THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IN CLOSE COMPANY WITH THE GFDL MODEL.
ROSENDAL

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     11/0300Z 26.2N 142.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 27.0N 143.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 27.7N 145.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 28.0N 147.6W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     13/0000Z 28.3N 150.0W     0 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     14/0000Z 28.8N 155.3W     0 KTS...DISSIPATING

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