Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm Paka (05c) Warning Nr 018a Corrected

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Dec 1997 16:08:29 -0600

354
WTPN31 PGTW 062100 COR
1. TROPICAL STORM PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 018A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN WESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- 8.9N7 179.5W2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N7 179.5W2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 9.0N9 178.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---

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   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 9.1N0 176.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 9.3N2 174.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 9.8N7 172.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 12.0N3 169.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    ---

PAGE 04 RUEDMCA1446 UNCLAS
REMARKS:
THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU) ON TROPICAL STORM
PAKA (05C).  THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 061730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM PAKA HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS BUT STILL REMAINS DISORGANIZED.  WATER VAPOR
DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.  THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
TS PAKA TRACKS TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
EASTERLY FLOW.  ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE STORM ON A MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AT THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES.  JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED

PAGE 05 RUEDMCA1446 UNCLAS
FUTURE WARNING MANOP TIMES AND DTG.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 15 FEET.  REFER TO WWPW31 PGTW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z), 070900Z6 (DTG 070751Z), 071500Z3
(DTG 071351Z), AND 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z).//
BT
#1446

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