Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 4 [130832]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Jul 1997 03:32:27 -0500

238
WTPZ42 KNHC 130832
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 1997

ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH WELL-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND GOOD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER ALL QUADRANTS.
USING THE CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE YIELDS A T-
NUMBER OF 3.5...CORRESPONDING TO 55 KNOTS.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER
TODAY.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...300/14...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE LATEST AVN MODEL RUN SHOWS A DEEP-LAYER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING BETWEEN 20N-35N AND 120W-140W.  IF
THIS FEATURE VERIFIES...ENRIQUE SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THEREFORE A FURTHER NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS MADE...ALBEIT NOT AS FAR NORTH
AS SOME OF THE MODEL TRACKS.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     13/0900Z 11.2N 118.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 12.1N 119.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 13.4N 122.2W    70 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 14.8N 124.8W    75 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 16.2N 127.2W    75 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 19.0N 132.0W    75 KTS

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