Subject: Pacific-NC: Tropical Storm Paka Discussion Number 3

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 2 Dec 1997 20:44:20 -0600

994
WTPA41 PHNL 030300 COR
TROPICAL STORM PAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST TUE DEC 02 1997

...CORRECTED SST FROM 81C TO 28C...

PAKA WHICH BY THE WAY IS HAWAIIAN FOR PAT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE IT REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD SO HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THAT SINCE THERE ARE NO
FACTORS POINTING TOWARD THE CONTRARY. SST'S ARE AMPLE AT 28C. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOKS FAVORABLE BOTH IN THE IMMIDIATE VICINITY OF THE
CYCLONE AS WELL AS THE REGIONAL PATTERN. VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO
REMAINS SMALL WITH NO MAJOR TROUGH NEARBY FOR SHEARING OR
RECURVATURE. THE CLOUD PATTERN SHAPE IS RATHER CIRCULAR MEANING
THAT NO STRONG EASTERLIES OR WESTERLIES ARE AFFECTING THE
CIRCULATION. FORWARD MOTION SPEED HAS BEEN SLOW AS A SLOW WNW DRIFT
CONTINUES. THIS QUASISTATIONARY ASPECT OF COURSE IS BOTHERSOME WITH
RESPECT TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ESPECIALLY THIS LATE IN THE YEAR SO
WE ARE WATCHING PAKA CLOSELY. THE FORECAST WILL MOVE IT WNW AT 5 KT
OR SO GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE SOUTHERN
TWIN...AS WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A COUPLET OF VORTICES MIRROR IMAGED
ON THE EQUATOR...IS LOCATED AT NEARLY THE SAME LAT/LON SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR. IT HAS LAGGED A LITTLE IN DEVELOPMENT DURING TODAY BUT MAY
CATCH UP.    ROSENDAL

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     03/0300Z  7.5N 167.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z  7.6N 167.9W    50 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z  7.9N 168.6W    60 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z  8.5N 169.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z  9.0N 170.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     06/0000Z 10.5N 172.0W    70 KTS

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