Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 066

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Dec 1997 14:25:07 -0600

783
WTPN31 PGTW 182100
1. SUPER TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 066
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z8 --- 15.2N8 137.2E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N8 137.2E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 15.5N1 135.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 15.7N3 133.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 15.8N4 132.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 15.9N5 130.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 16.0N7 128.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION: 15.3N9 136.7E7
SUPER TYPHOON PAKA (05C) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 181730Z0
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUPER TYPHOON PAKA
(05C) APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING MORE STEADILY NOW AS
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CLOUD
SHIELD SHRINKING AND BECOMING ELONGATED DUE TO SOME
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO REFLECT A MORE DISTINCT
WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL
THE 72 HOUR POSITION WHEN SUPER TYPHOON PAKA (05C) STARTS
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 28 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG 190151Z7),
190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3), 191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0) AND
192100Z3 (191951Z6).//

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