Subject: Pacific-EN: National Weather Service Miami Fl [DDHHMM]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Jul 1997 10:43:10 -0500

339
WTPZ42 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
9 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 1997

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
SOUTH OF BAJA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW...DEEP CONVECTION
AND EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES.  THEREFORE...IT MAY BE A TROPICAL
STORM  LATER TODAY.  SINCE IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...WELL IN THE
DEEP TROPICS...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  MOST OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE...MAINLY BECAUSE THERE IS A
PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH
GUIDANCE.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     12/1600Z  9.1N 114.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z  9.5N 115.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 10.0N 117.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 10.5N 119.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 11.0N 121.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 12.5N 126.0W    80 KTS

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