Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 068

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 19 Dec 1997 02:30:13 -0600

575
WTPN31 PGTW 190900
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 068
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z6 --- 15.5N1 135.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N1 135.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 16.0N7 133.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 16.7N4 132.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 17.4N2 131.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 17.1N9 129.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 16.6N3 126.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS: 190900Z9 POSITION:  15.1N7 135.0E9
TYPHOON PAKA (05C) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190530Z8 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ORGANIZATION OF TY PAKA HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD OUTFLOW. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN AFTER THE
24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AFTERWARD, TY PAKA IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OFF TOWARD THE EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD START WEAKENING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE 36
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190600Z IS 28 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG
191351Z), 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z), 200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z),
AND 200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z).//

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