Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number 15 [030834]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 3 Aug 1997 03:35:40 -0500

136
WTPZ44 KNHC 030834
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 1997

GUILLERMO IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING HURRICANE.  IT HAS A WELL-
DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
ARE HIGHER THAN WHEN THE NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE
SYSTEM JUST BEFORE 00Z.  THEREFORE IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WINDS HAVE
INCREASED FURTHER AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE IS LOWERED
ACCORDINGLY.   THIS CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO A COMPROMISE
OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. IT IS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT...IN
SPITE OF ITS STRENGTH...THE HURRICANES UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  OBVIOUSLY THIS
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A HINDERANCE TO THE DEEPENING PROCESS.  EVEN
THOUGH SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...I WILL ASSUME THAT
THE INTENSITY HAS REACHED A PLATEAU AND FORECAST NO FURTHER
INCREASE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS MAY OCCUR TODAY AS A RESULT OF EYEWALL
CYCLES.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME...275/11.  THE 06Z
AVN RUN SHOWS A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF
GUILLERMO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
HURRICANE ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST HEADING.  THEREFORE THE
TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD...AND SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN IN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES.  THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     03/0900Z 13.6N 109.8W   120 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 13.8N 111.5W   120 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z 14.0N 113.5W   120 KTS
36HR VT     04/1800Z 14.2N 115.5W   115 KTS
48HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 117.5W   110 KTS
72HR VT     06/0600Z 15.0N 121.5W   100 KTS

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