Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 15

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 13 Aug 1997 09:36:42 +1900

734
WTPZ45 KNHC 131436
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 13 1997

THE CENTER OF HILDA IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES AND
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.  SYSTEM CONSISTS OF
A SHAPELESS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHOUT BANDING FEATURES.  HILDA
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LOW WHICH IS MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEED AS THE STORM.  HILDA APPEARS TO BE
MOVING AT 300/10 WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER-LOW.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...EXCEPT THE AVN AND
NOGAPS...SUGGEST THAT THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST
NORTHWEST TRACK IN AGREEMENT WITH BAM...GFDL AND CLIMATOLOGY.

HILDA CONTINUES WITH 45-KNOT WINDS.  THE FORECAST TRACK...INDICATE
THAT HILDA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
THEREFORE... ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     13/1500Z 15.3N 123.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 16.0N 125.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 127.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.5N 136.0W    60 KTS

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