Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 11 [170238]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Jul 1997 21:39:59 -0500

481
WTPZ43 KNHC 170238
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 16 1997

LAST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO INTERLOCKING
BANDS WITH THE SUGGESTION OF AN EYE BEGINNING TO FORM BETWEEN THEM.
TWO OF THE THREE DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 4.0.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES
...WE ARE UPGRADING FELICIA TO HURRICANE STATUS.  FELICIA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS SO STEADY
BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE 48-HOUR
VALUE IS HELD THROUGH 72 HOURS BECAUSE AVIATION MODEL...AND
INTENSITY GUIDANCE BASED ON THIS MODEL...INCREASES THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE INITIAL HEADING IS 295/07...MORE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS
HEADING AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED PRIMARILY
ON A SYNTHESIS OF NHC91...BAM MEDIUM...GFDL  AND UKM AND BEGINS WEST
NORTHWESTERLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AFTER 36 HOURS.  THIS IS A
RESULT OF GLOBAL MODELS BUILDING BACK THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF
FELICIA AFTER ENRIQUE MOVED THROUGH.

GROSS

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     17/0300Z 13.1N 116.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N 117.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N 119.3W    75 KTS
36HR VT     18/1200Z 14.4N 121.2W    80 KTS
48HR VT     19/0000Z 14.9N 123.4W    85 KTS
72HR VT     20/0000Z 15.8N 128.0W    85 KTS

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