Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Dec 1997 12:41:51 -0600

589
WTXS22 PGTW 261430
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261423Z DEC 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS OF 13.6S0 112.5E9 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG3367 UNCLAS
TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S1 112.2E6.  THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 261529Z5 INDICATED THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN
HAD WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS
BEEN LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER DURING MUCH OF THE DAY, RECENT SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FORM CLOSER
TOWARDS THE CENTER.  SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 271430Z7.
4. MSG RELEASED FOR NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU.//
BT
#3367

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