Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 29 Dec 1997 09:09:01 -0600

187
WTXS32 PGTW 291500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z4 --- 18.1S0 104.1E6

PAGE 02 RUEOMCA2258 UNCLAS
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 104.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 18.9S8 102.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 19.4S4 100.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

PAGE 03 RUEOMCA2258 UNCLAS
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 19.8S8 98.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 20.2S4 96.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION 18.3S2  103.6E0

PAGE 04 RUEOMCA2258 UNCLAS
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
AND TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WE BELIEVE THAT THE DOMINANT STEERING
FLOW ON 09S (SELWYN) WILL BE THE EASTERLIES EQUATORWARD
OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC (850 MB) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 291130Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 09S (SELWYN) IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG
300153Z2) AND 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5).//
BT
#2258

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