Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number 29

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 6 Aug 1997 15:39:23 -0500

078
WTPZ44 KNHC 062038
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 06 1997

A SMALL AND WELL DEFINED EYE HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY...BUT THE
SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPS HAVE WARMED.  THE DVORAK T NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED A LITTLE
TO 110 KNOTS.  GUILLERMO IS STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  GUILLERMO SHOULD BE MOVING OVER 25 TO 26C WATER WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15.  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  SOME MODELS SHOW A
DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...AND OUR TRACK
REFLECTS THIS.  CURRENT TRACK IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
MODELS...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND BAMM.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     06/2100Z 16.1N 129.1W   110 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 16.6N 131.4W   105 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 17.4N 134.2W    95 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 18.2N 137.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 18.9N 139.6W    75 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N 144.5W    65 KTS

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