Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 36

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 8 Aug 1997 09:34:08 -0500

863
WTPZ44 KNHC 081437
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 08 1997

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS AROUND THE WELL
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

GUILLERMO REMAINS ON A 290/11 TRACK.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
DISAGREEMENT BEYOND 24 HOURS.  ONE GROUP OF MODELS ..LBAR.. GFDI
..BAMM ..BAMD.. TURNS GUILLERMO NORTHWARD AND EVEN NORTHEASTWARD. A
SECOND GROUP...AVN..NHC91..BAMS...MOVES THE STORM WEST-NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD AND OTHERS...UKMET...NOGAPS...CLIPER...KEEP THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. SINCE
GUILLERMO IS WEAKENING...AND BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL
PROBABLY BE STEERED BY THE MID TO LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
THEREAFTER. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN 72 HOURS.

JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     08/1500Z 18.7N 136.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 19.2N 138.4W    50 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 20.2N 140.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 21.3N 142.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 22.6N 144.1W    25 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 25.8N 146.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING

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