Subject: Pacific-NC: National Weather Service Honolulu Hi [120300]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Jul 1997 21:33:39 -0500

281
WTPA41 PHNL 120300
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST FRI JUL 11 1997

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES DOLORES TO THE NORTHWEST INITIALLY AND
THEN SLOWS IT SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES MORE WEST NORTHWEST AFTER 24
HOURS. THIS TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHALLOW BETA
ADVECTION MODEL AND THE AVIATION MODEL. THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED THROUGH 48 HOURS AS DOLORES MOVES BENEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH AND TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE DECELERATION MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REDEVELOP OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
LARSON

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     12/0300Z 22.7N 141.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 24.0N 143.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 25.5N 146.8W    30 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 26.4N 149.7W    30 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 27.0N 152.6W    30 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 27.7N 157.8W    25 KTS

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