Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 040

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 6 Nov 1997 12:02:54 -0600

786
WTPN31 PGTW 061500
1. TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 040
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z9 --- 22.2N6 137.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

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   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N6 137.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 24.3N9 139.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            180 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 26.7N5 142.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

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   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 29.5N6 147.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 31.9N3 152.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

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   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 36.6N5 164.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION 22.7N1  138.0E2
TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKENED, WHILE SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY.
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A
SATELLITE CURRENT T-NUMBER OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND A
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER OF CI5.0 (90 KNOTS), AND A MORE
RAGGED APPEARANCE TO THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN. NO
CHANGE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS WE STILL
EXPECT TYPHOON KEITH TO CONTINUE TO RECURVE AND STEADILY
WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO

PAGE 06 RUHGSGG7321 UNCLAS
WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4), 070300Z0 (DTG
070153Z6), 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2) AND 071500Z3 (DTG
071353Z9).//
BT
#7321

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