Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 037

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Dec 1997 08:29:42 -0600

347
WTPN31 PGTW 111500
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 037
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- 6.9N5 167.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 03 RUEOMCB0158 UNCLAS //NO3145//
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.9N5 167.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 7.1N8 166.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 7.4N1 165.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM

PAGE 04 RUEOMCB0158 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 7.6N3 163.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 7.7N4 160.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

PAGE 05 RUEOMCB0158 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 8.4N2 155.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION: 7.0N7 167.7E1
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
111300Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS AN 11NM

PAGE 06 RUEOMCB0158 UNCLAS //NO3145//
CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND AN 111200Z5 DOPPLER RADAR REPORT
FROM KWAJALEIN (WMO 91366). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TY PAKA HAS BECOME
MORE INTENSE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS INDICATED BY
COOLING CLOUD TOPS. THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS PAKA
TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN THE 24 AND 48 HOUR PERIOD THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTERLY AS A MID
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND TY PAKA
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN EASTERLY FLOW. TY PAKA IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT THE 36 HOUR
PERIOD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTERWARDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z),120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z), 120900Z2
(DTG 120751Z) AND 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z).//
BT
#0158

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