Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 071

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 19 Dec 1997 20:44:39 -0600

057
WTPN31 PGTW 200300
1. TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 071
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z2 --- 16.7N4 133.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH QUADRANT
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 03 RUEDMCC3454 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTH QUADRANT
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N4 133.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 17.1N9 132.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH QUADRANT
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH QUADRANT
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 17.3N1 131.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH QUADRANT
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH QUADRANT

PAGE 04 RUEDMCC3454 UNCLAS //NO3145//
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 17.2N0 129.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH QUADRANT
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH QUADRANT
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 16.9N6 128.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH QUADRANT
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---

PAGE 05 RUEDMCC3454 UNCLAS //NO3145//
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 15.9N5 125.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION: 16.8N5 133.2E9
LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TYPHOON
PAKA (05C) HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A
SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 ALONG WITH A
SHORT TERM WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY PAKA
HAS A CENTER THAT IS LOCATED BY SPIRAL BANDING RATHER
THAN A DISTINCTIVE EYE FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY, IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PAKA APPEARS TO BE
TRACKING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WHICH INDICATES THE

PAGE 06 RUEDMCC3454 UNCLAS //NO3145//
SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME AS PAKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CHINA. AFTERWARDS,
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH PAKA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TY PAKA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS
THE NORTH AND ENTER WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z2 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG
200751Z), 201500Z8 (201351Z), 202100Z5 (DTG 201951Z) AND
210300Z6 (210151Z).//
BT
#3454

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