Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 6 [132040]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Jul 1997 15:40:28 -0500

355
WTPZ42 KNHC 132040
TCDEP2
HURRICANE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 1997

AN EYE IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS... IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.
THE OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS...BASED ON THE WARM EYE TEMPERATURE AND THE
COLDEST SURROUNDING RING TEMPERATURE...PEAKED JUST BEFORE 1800Z DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EYE.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL IMPRESSIVE AND THE SYSTEM
IS OVER WARM WATER...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATER.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/16.  THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 28N132W WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ENRIQUE.  THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH TIME.  CURRENT TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT IS NOTED THAT SOME OF THE MODELS TURN ENRIQUE
EVEN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AFTER 48 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW.

THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE INCREASED SOMEWHAT BASED ON
LATEST INTERPRETATION OF THE SSM/I IMAGERY FROM THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL
WEATHER CENTER.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     13/2100Z 12.9N 121.1W    90 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.1N 123.3W    95 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N 125.8W   100 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 128.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 130.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N 133.5W    70 KTS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.