Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 17

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Oct 1997 14:49:02 -0600

747
WTPN31 PGTW 312100 COR
1. SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 17
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z3 --- 10.6N7 154.5E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N7 154.5E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 11.7N9 151.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 12.6N9 149.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 13.4N8 146.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 14.1N6 144.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 15.4N0 139.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION 10.9N0  153.8E7
TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS ACCELERATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W)
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE 311200Z7 NOGAPS AND JGSM
MODEL RUNS ARE ALMOST ON TOP OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.AS
A RESULT, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST
TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY OTHER THAN WE EXPECT KEITH TO SLOW
ITS FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY. WE ALSO EXPECT SUPER TYPHOON
KEITH (29W) TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT 150 TO
155 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS JUST PRIOR TO TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 311800Z IS 26 FEET.REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG
010153Z0), 010900Z0 (DTG 010753Z6), 011500Z7 (DTG
011353Z3) AND 012100Z4 (DTG 011953Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 30W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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