Subject: Pacific-NC: Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 53

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 1997 15:31:31 +1900

226
WTPA44 PHNL 122100
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST TUE AUG 12 1997

GUILLERMO REMAINS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH
PRESSURE CELL CENTERED TO ITS NORTHEAST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE SOMEWHAT SUSPECT AS THIS SYSTEM HAS SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WITH A COLD CORE LOW ALOFT. GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT TROPICAL STROM INTENSITY BASED ON SURFACE SHIP
REPORTS AND THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN THE
NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE BETWEEN IT AND THE NEARBY HIGH CENTER. THE
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY PARALLELS THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN
48 HOURS. LARSON

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     12/2100Z 30.5N 148.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 31.1N 150.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 31.8N 152.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 32.5N 155.3W    35 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 33.1N 158.1W    30 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 35.1N 164.0W    30 KTS

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