Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 181721z Nov 97//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 18 Nov 1997 11:49:34 -0600

490
WTPN21 PGTW 181730
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 181721Z NOV 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/180321Z NOV 97//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
180330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.1N7
166.4E7 TO 28.8N8 163.4E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  METSAT IMAGERY
AT 181131Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.7N3 166.0E3.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.  ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 10 HOURS.  THEREFORE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT HAS BEEN REISSUED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS MOTION.  ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY IMPROVED SLIGHTLY
DURING THIS TIME, TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A
SHIP REPORT NEAR 26.5N3 AND 165.0E2.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 191730Z1.//

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