Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 019a Corrected

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 1 Nov 1997 03:56:20 -0600

269
WTPN31 PGTW 010900 COR
1. SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 019A CORRECTED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z7 --- 12.1N4 151.8E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N4 151.8E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 13.0N4 149.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 13.8N2 146.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 14.4N9 144.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 14.9N4 141.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 15.7N3 136.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION 12.3N6  151.2E9
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 38 FEET.
SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENCE. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS. CPA TO ROTA
IS EXPECTED APPROXIMATELY AT 021300Z6 WITH SAIPANS CPA
ONE HOUR PRIOR TO THAT AND GUAM ONE HOUR LATER. REFER TO
WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3), 012100Z4 (DTG
011953Z9), 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1) AND 020900Z1 (DTG
020753Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM LINDA (30W) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION: SYSTEM NAME IN PARA. 1.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUHGSGG29413050753

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