Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Ten-e Discussion Number 9

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 11 Aug 1997 21:31:45 +1900

014
WTPZ45 KNHC 120230
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 11 1997

TEN-E CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SHEARING FROM THE CIRCULATION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED TO ITS WEST-NORTHWEST.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGES SHOW THAT THIS UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD...BUT THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AS WELL.  THEREFORE IT APPEARS THAT
THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  AS IN EARLIER NHC FORECASTS...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED LATER IN THE PERIOD...SINCE THE SHEAR MAY
EVENTUALLY LESSEN SOMEWHAT.

THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BASED ON THE CHANGE IN HEADING.  THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM HAS APPARENTLY BEEN IN RESPONSE TO LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS SINCE IT IS NOT A VERY STRONG/DEEP TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  SHOULD THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT...IT COULD BE
STEERED MORE TO THE RIGHT...DUE TO THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER
CYCLONE.  SINCE I AM NOT FORECASTING ANY GREAT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH...THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS ALONG THE
TRACK GIVEN BY THE SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING MODEL BAMS...BUT NOT QUITE
AS FAST.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     12/0300Z 13.1N 118.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 13.3N 119.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 13.9N 121.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.6N 123.3W    35 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 125.3W    40 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N 129.5W    45 KTS

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