Subject: Pacific-NC: National Weather Service Honolulu Hi [211500]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 21 Jul 1997 09:35:16 -0500

798
WTPA43 PHNL 211500
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST MON JUL 21 1997

FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE
RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA AND THE
INCREASINGLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST SHEAR ALOFT IT IS MOVING INTO. IN
FACT...FELICIA HAS LOST PRACTICALLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION
LEAVING ONLY A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO FOLLOW.

THE FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM AND CLIPER SINCE
IT IS NOW THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW THAT IS DOING THE STEERING. THE
AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP
FELICIA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS.

THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA SHOULD MOVE CLOSE TO THE BIG ISLAND IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS BRINGING ENHANCED SHOWERS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STRONG WINDS TO THAT ISLAND.

CRAIG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     21/1500Z 17.5N 141.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 17.8N 144.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 18.2N 148.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 18.7N 151.9W    30 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.2N 155.6W    25 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 19.9N 162.8W    20 KTS

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