Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Dec 1997 00:44:39 -0600

168
ABIO10 PGTW 180630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/180630Z/181800Z DEC 97//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12S3
119E1. ANIMATED VISUAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THIS AREA HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST 12
HOURS ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA NEAR 16N7 125E8. ANALYSES FROM ERS-2
SCATTEROMETER PASSES AT 171440Z7 AND 180139Z2 INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION UNDER THIS
CONVECTIVE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE
AUSTRALIAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR, BUT MAY IMPROVE BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
IF THE CONVECTION IS SUSTAINED.
(2) JUSTIFICATION: THIS BULLETIN REISSUED TO
INCLUDE ABOVE AREA IN TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/HONG/EIBLING//

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