Subject: Pacific-NC: Tropical Storm Guillermo Discussion Number 59

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 Aug 1997 03:31:51 +1900

705
WTPA44 PHNL 140900
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 59
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST WED AUG 13 1997

GUILLERMO IS HEADING NORTHWESTWARD AND LATER NORTHWARD FOR WHAT
LOOKS LIKE RECURVATURE OVER THE SHIPPING LANES OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THE DYNAMIC MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ACCELERATION WITHIN
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS THE JET STREAM ALOFT IS STILL SOME DISTANCE
AWAY. IN ANY EVENT GUILLERMO IS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WHERE 500 MB HEIGHTS EXCEED 600 DEKAMETERS AND SURFACE PRESSURE ARE
ABOUT 1036 MB.  HAVE FOLLOWED THE PATH OF THE GFDL MODEL CLOSELY
WHICH HAS COME AROUND TO WHAT THE UK MET MODEL SUGGESTED YESTERDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HOWEVER SUGGESTS A MORE COUNTERCLOCKWISE OR
WESTWARD CURVING OF THE TRACK AS GUILLERMO AND ANOTHER VORTEX
ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER CYCLONICALLY.  WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES IN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL AFTER
48 HOURS AS THE COOLER WATERS WILL LIKELY BE TAKING ITS TOLL.
ROSENDAL

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     14/0900Z 34.0N 155.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 35.0N 156.1W    45 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 36.6N 157.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 38.0N 158.0W    35 KTS...BECMNG EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     16/0600Z 39.4N 158.6W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     17/0600Z 42.1N 159.0W    35 KTS

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