Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 21

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 1 Nov 1997 13:24:09 -0600

201
WTPN31 PGTW 012100
1. SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 21
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- 13.3N7 148.6E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N7 148.6E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 14.1N6 145.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 14.5N0 143.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 14.9N4 140.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z+RRE 138.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            165 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 16.5N2 134.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            175 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION 13.5N9  147.9E1
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS, SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS
CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED OF 16 KNOTS. SUPER TYPHOON
KEITH (29W) HAS NOW BECOME ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONES ON RECORD WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 872 MB. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
011730Z2 DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
CI8.0 (160+ KNOTS) AND CI7.5 (155 TO 160 KNOTS) FROM JTWC
AND KWBC SATELLITE ANALYSTS, RESPECTIVELY. THE GUAM
DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN INDICATING AN EYE FOR NEARLY 2
HOURS NOW AT ALTITUDES ABOVE 55,000 FEET MSL, AND BOTH
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE KEITH HAS MADE
ANOTHER WESTWARD JOG DURING THE PAST 02 HOURS. OVER THE
PAST 18 HOURS, KEITH HAS BEEN MAKING SMALL LOOPS IN THE
TRACK EVERY 06 HOURS. WHETHER OR NOT SUPER TYPHOON KEITH
(29W) TRACKS NORTH OR SOUTH OF ROTA WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING AND SIZE OF THE LOOPING MOTION. OUR FORECAST
TRACK CALLS FOR KEITH TO BASICALLY TRACK DIRECTLY OVER
THE ISLAND OF ROTA IN ABOUT 14 HOURS. THE 100-KNOT WIND
RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR KEITH=S
SLIGHT WEAKENING AFTER 06 TO 12 HOURS AND EXPECTED
INCREASE IN THE EYE DIAMETER FROM THE CURRENT 20 NM OUT
TO AT LEAST 25 NM BY THE TIME IT PASSES OVER ROTA. THE
35-KNOT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED AFTER 36 HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND
LONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FETCH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF JAPAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z0 IS 45 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG
020153Z1), 020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7), 021500Z8 (DTG
021353Z4) AND 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM LINDA (30W) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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