Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number 17 [032018]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 3 Aug 1997 15:29:38 -0500

253
WTPZ44 KNHC 032018
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL...WELL-DEFINED EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD SURROUNDING TEMPERATURES.  THE NOAA
HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION IS CONDUCTING A VORTEX MOTION EXPERIMENT
WITH TWO P-3 AIRCRAFT.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED WIND DATA
FROM ALL QUADRANTS AND DO NOT KNOW IF THE PLANE HAS FOUND THE
MAXIMUM WINDS YET.  FOR NOW...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LEFT AT 135
KNOTS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE AMONG THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
THIS KEEPS GUILLERMO A BORDERLINE CAT 4/CAT 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...AND WE ARE BETTING THAT THIS WILL
BE THE PEAK INTENSITY.  THE HURRICANE IS OVER 29C WATER AT THE
PRESENT TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 27C WATER AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM AS A RESULT OF EYEWALL CYCLES...AND IN THE LONGER
TERM WE EXPECT TO SEE SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING.  HOWEVER ...GUILLERMO
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
3 DAYS OR SO.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/11.  A PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER
MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GUILLERMO WILL ALLOW THE GENERAL WESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE.   THE CURRENT TRACK IS A
LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK SINCE THE NWS AVIATION
MODEL FROM 1200Z SUGGESTS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAY BE STRONGER
THAN WAS INDICATED ON THE PREVIOUS RUN.  CURRENT TRACK IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND BAM GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE GFDL AND NOGAPS.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     03/2100Z 13.9N 112.1W   135 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.1N 113.8W   135 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.4N 116.0W   130 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 14.7N 118.5W   125 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 15.1N 121.0W   120 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 16.0N 126.5W   110 KTS

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