Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon Keith (29w) Warning Nr 029

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 3 Nov 1997 15:22:37 -0600

531
WTPN31 PGTW 032100
1. TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 029
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- 16.1N8 138.0E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N8 138.0E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 16.4N1 135.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 17.6N4 134.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 19.2N2 135.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 20.9N1 135.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 25.5N2 137.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION 16.2N9  137.5E6
SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY IN INTENSITY.
KEITH=S EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLOUD COVERED AND MORE DISTINCT
DURING THE PAST 02 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND
OUTFLOW CIRRUS SHIELD HAVE BECOME ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AND THIS OFTENTIMES INDICATES FUTURE MOTION
BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE HAVE SHARPENED OUR
TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS INDICATING RECURVATURE A LITTLE SOONER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BUT WE HAVE THE FORWARD SPEEDS
SLOWER THAN OUR DYNAMIC FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING. WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AVERAGE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF CI7.0 (140 KNOTS) AND A BETTER DEFINED EYE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 35 FEET. REFER
TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040153Z3), 040900Z3 (DTG 040753Z9),
041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6) AND 042100Z7 (DTG 041953Z2).
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM LINDA (30W) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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