Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Nineteen-e Discussion Number 2

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 7 Nov 1997 20:24:42 -0600

124
WTPZ44 KNHC 080225
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM PST FRI NOV 07 1997

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION
HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION AND THE T-NUMBERS
CONTINUE AROUND 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION.   PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LATEST SHIPS97 CALL FOR
INTENSIFICATION AND SINCE SHEAR REMAINS LOW...SOME STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED.

INITIAL MOTION IS 360/07.  THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN
A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF
THE MODELS TURN THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH MODELS AND
BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48
HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO PRIMARILY FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...INCLUDING ACAPULCO...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING.

THE AVN MODEL DOES NOT HAVE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE INITIAL
ANALYSIS. ON THE OTHER HAND...NOGAPS SHOWS A CIRCULATION IN THE
CORRECT PLACE.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     08/0300Z 12.1N 103.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 13.1N 103.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 14.5N 103.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 15.5N 102.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 16.5N 100.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 18.5N  97.5W    30 KTS...INLAND

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