Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 9 Nov 1997 00:17:03 -0600

419
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/090600Z/100600Z NOV 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/080153ZNOV97//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 081200Z1 TROPICAL STORM KEITH (29W) WAS
LOCATED AT 29.9N1 156.1E3 AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 34 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.  SEE REF A (TROPICAL
STORM KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 48 (WTPN31 PGTW 081500))
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 11N2 144E9
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11N2 142E7.  ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING
WITHIN THIS DISTURBANCE, AND EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING
BANDING FEATURE.  THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
FORECAST TO IMPROVE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1010 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2)  AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 10N1
179E7.  ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
VERY SMALL BUT TIGHTLY WOUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/HATFIELD/HONG/UROGI//

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