Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Eight-e Special Discussion Number 1 [141608]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Jul 1997 11:58:06 -0500

727
WTPZ43 KNHC 141608
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
9 AM PDT MON JUL 14 1997

THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF BAJA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BANDING TYPE PATTERN AND
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE AMONG
VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATER BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED AT THIS TIME.  ALSO...
THE INFLOW INTO ENRIQUE COULD RETARD DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT.  GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIFOR.

THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED...AND THERE MAY BE SOME ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13.  AT
THIS TIME...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
STEERING WILL CONTINUE MOVING THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TURN IT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WAKE OF
ENRIQUE.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     14/1600Z 10.2N 109.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 10.6N 111.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 11.1N 114.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 11.7N 117.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 12.3N 120.3W    55 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N 127.0W    65 KTS

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