Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 27 [210253]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 20 Jul 1997 21:51:49 -0500

088
WTPZ43 KNHC 210253
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 1997

THE EYE DISAPPEARED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS 90
KNOTS IN ACCORD WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED ESTIMATES.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF 145W.  THEREFORE SHEARING OVER FELICIA
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  MY INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE IN ESTIMATING THE RAPIDITY OF THE
WEAKENING PROCESS.

NO CHANGE TO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...285/15.  NOT MUCH CHANGE
IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST EITHER.  FELICIA CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY THE EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM/SHALLOW BAM AND
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  THE DEEP-LAYER BAM SHOWS
RECURVATURE BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN SINCE FELICIA IS
LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY SHALLOWER-LAYER FLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     21/0300Z 17.4N 138.0W    90 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 17.9N 140.3W    80 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 18.6N 142.9W    70 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 19.5N 145.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 20.0N 148.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 152.0W    30 KTS

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