Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Nov 1997 03:02:33 -0600

879
WTIO32 PGTW 120900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z9 --- 14.1N6 64.3E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N6 64.3E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 14.8N3 63.5E4

PAGE 03 RUHGSGG0403 UNCLAS
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 15.5N1 62.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 16.2N9 62.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 04 RUHGSGG0403 UNCLAS
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 17.0N8 62.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 18.0N9 61.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION 14.3N8   64.1E1

PAGE 05 RUHGSGG0403 UNCLAS
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A HAS TRACKED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 04A
NOW HAS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 120530Z1 SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF CI 3.5 (55 TO 60 KNOTS) AND
THE SHEAR PATTERN. NOW THAT TC 04A IS EXPERIENCING SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WE ARE HOLDING THE INTENSITY STEADY
THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH SLOW WEAKENING AFTER THAT. THERE IS
A MODERATE PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT TC 04A
WILL SHEAR APART BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
IN WHICH CASE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WOULD MOVE MORE
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120600Z9 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 (DTG
121351Z3), 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9), 130300Z7 (DTG
130151Z1) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7).//
BT
#0403

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