Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number 12 [021430]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 2 Aug 1997 09:37:19 -0500

283
WTPZ44 KNHC 021430
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 1997

THE EYE CAN NOT BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY YET BUT GIVEN THE WELL
DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO...THERE IS PROBABLY
AN EYE UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY.  MUCH BETTER AND DETAILED
INFORMATION OF THE INNER STRUCTURE OF GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. THERE WILL BE A RESEARCH MISSION CONDUCTED BY THE HURRICANE
RESEARCH DIVISION (HRD) TODAY AND THE P3 NOAA PLANE WILL STUDY
GUILLERMO.

DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE NEAR 80
KNOTS AND AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED.
THERE IS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD.   GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST AND WEST NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THAT HIGH WHICH IS
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN STATIONARY.  MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS RESPOND TO THE HIGH BY TAKING GUILLERMO TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST NORTHWEST.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     02/1500Z 13.5N 106.5W    80 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N 108.2W    85 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 14.2N 110.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 14.5N 112.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z 15.0N 114.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N 118.5W   100 KTS

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