Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number 9 [012157]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 1 Aug 1997 17:01:26 -0500

566
WTPZ44 KNHC 012157
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 1997

THE EYE HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET AS EXPECTED EARLIER TODAY. THE SYSTEM
CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...CDO..AND A FEW CURVED BANDS.
GUILLERMO'S DEVELOPMENT HAS TEMPORARILY LEVELED OFF BUT BOTH UPPER
LEVELS AND SST OCEAN TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING SHOULD
CONTINUE.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  THERE IS LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. GUILLERMO IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THAT LARGE ANTICYCLONE.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS WHICH SUGGEST A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE AVN MODEL CHANGED FROM
THE EARLIER RUN AND IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS TAKING
GUILLERMO ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     01/2100Z 12.5N 102.8W    65 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 12.6N 104.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 12.8N 106.2W    75 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 13.0N 108.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 13.5N 110.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 15.0N 114.5W    90 KTS

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