Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 17 [181449]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 18 Jul 1997 09:48:33 -0500

780
WTPZ43 KNHC 181449
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 1997

FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK
INTENSITY T NUMBER ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.5 TO 6.0. THE STORM HAS A
SYMMETRIC PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WELL-FORMED EYE.
THEREFORE THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 100 KTS. THE STORM IS SOUTH OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL BE OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SO SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  AFTER 24
HOURS THE STORM INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS.

THE INITIAL HEADING IS 280/12 AND THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION. THE GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL MODEL
SUGGESTS MORE OF A WESTWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL PREDICTION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE MEDIUM
BAM. IF THE STORM TRACK FOLLOWS THE GFDL MORE CLOSELY THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN FORECAST.

DEMARIA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     18/1500Z 15.4N 123.2W   100 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 15.7N 125.1W   105 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 16.2N 127.5W   100 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 16.7N 130.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 17.1N 132.4W    75 KTS
72HR VT     21/1200Z 17.8N 137.1W    50 KTS

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