Subject: Pacific-NC: Tropical Storm Paka Discussion Number 6

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 3 Dec 1997 15:03:45 -0600

140
WTPA41 PHNL 032100
TROPICAL STORM PAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST WED DEC 3 1997

PAKA APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN ITS WESTNORTHWEST MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE
ITS CURRENT 10 KNOT MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF BEFORE
INTRODUCING A STANDARD ACCELERATION TOWARD 15 KNOTS. WITH MODELS
BEGINNING MODEST SHEARING ALOFT WITHIN 36 HOURS WILL KEEP PRESENT
SLOW GROWTH TREND AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SOMETIME EAGER SHIFOR MODEL...THIS DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WARM
28 DEGREE WATER UNDERLYING PAKAS PROJECTED PATH.  MATSUDA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     03/2100Z  8.6N 169.1W    45 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z  9.0N 170.8W    45 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z  9.6N 173.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 10.3N 175.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 11.1N 177.9W    50 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 12.9N 176.8E    45 KTS

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