Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Super Typhoon Paka (05c) Warning Nr 050a Amended

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Dec 1997 16:12:39 -0600

107
WTPN31 PGTW 142100 AMD
1. SUPER TYPHOON PAKA (05C) WARNING NR 050A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- 12.0N3 152.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N3 152.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 12.9N2 149.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 13.4N8 147.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 13.5N9 145.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 13.5N9 143.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 13.4N8 140.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS: 142100Z8 POSITION: 12.2N5 151.8E5
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE INDICATES THAT DURING THE PAST
HOURS THAT SUPER TYPHOON PAKA (05C) HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY AND IS NOW 140 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY IS BASED
ON OUR RECENT ANALYSIS OF OUR AUTOMATED INTENSITY
TECHNIQUE. THIS DATA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE FAIRLY ACCURATE
FOR TYPHOONS OF THIS KIND OF INTENSITY. TYPHOON PAKA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN
THE 24 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG MID-ATITUDE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF OF ASIA. HOWEVER, INITIAL
FORWARD SPEED WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS UNTIL THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO FEEL THE AFFECT OF THE
TROUGH PASSING TOWARDS THE NORTH. JUSTIFICATION: WARNING
INTENSITY AND TRACK AMENDED BASED ON ABOVE NEW
INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141800Z IS 30 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z), 150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z), 151500Z2
(DTG 151351Z), AND 152100Z9 (DTG 151951Z).//

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