Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 2 Nov 1997 11:27:33 -0600

473
ABPW10 PGTW 021730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN/021730Z/030600Z NOV 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/021353ZNOV97//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/021351ZNOV97//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 021200Z5 SUPER TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WAS
LOCATED AT 14.8N3 144.3E2 AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
150 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 180 KNOTS. SEE REF A (SUPER
TYPHOON KEITH (29W) WARNING NR 24 (WTPN31 PGTW 021500))
AND 6 HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 021200Z5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA (30W) WAS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 70 KNOTS.
SEE REF B (TROPICAL STORM LINDA (30W) WARNING NR 08
(WPTN32 PGTW 021500)) AND 6 HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND
PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS NEAR 5N5 175E3. 021200Z5
SYNOPTIC DATA, SATELLITE ANIMATION, AND EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE A BROAD, BUT WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXISTS BENEATH VERY
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SATELLITE
ANIMATION INDICATE A GOOD WESTERLY WIND BURST HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 165E2 LONGITUDE EASTWARD
TO THE DATELINE. ALSO, THE 021200Z5 MAJURO (WMO 91376)
SOUNDING INDICATES THIS CIRCULATION IS VERTICALLY DEEP
BASED ON THE 30 TO 35 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM 925
MB UP TO 700 MB. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM EXISTS IN TWO BANDS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE MAJURO SOUNDING FROM
925 MB UP TO 600 MB, LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. WESTERN SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (180 WEST TO 135E):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR RE-ISSUANCE OF THIS ADVISORY: TO ADD
POOR SUSPECT AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/EIBLING/BACON//

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