Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 12 [170834]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 17 Jul 1997 03:34:23 -0500

588
WTPZ43 KNHC 170834
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 17 1997

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE NO STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.  IN FACT...FELICIA HAS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING ON
SATELLITE IMAGES.  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HURRICANE IS PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY SHEARING.  THE AVN MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE ON
FELICIA FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS.  SO...I HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATER IN THE PERIOD IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL LESSEN...SO SOME
STRENGTHENING SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAKE PLACE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OR TRACK FORECAST.  BASED ON THE 500 MB FORECAST FROM THE
AVN MODEL...A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELICIA SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE PERIOD.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     17/0900Z 13.5N 117.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 14.0N 118.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     18/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     18/1800Z 15.2N 122.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     19/0600Z 15.8N 124.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     20/0600Z 16.5N 128.0W    75 KTS

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