Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Ten-e Discussion Number 6

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 11 Aug 1997 03:25:04 -0500

444
WTPZ45 KNHC 110823
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 11 1997

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E REMAINS WEAK...WITH ONLY A SMALL AND
DIMINISHING CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM
IS EXPERIENCING SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST.
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KNOTS...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE INHIBITED IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE
SHEARING.  WE HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE MORE ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW MOVES WESTWARD FAST ENOUGH AND SEPARATES SUFFICIENTLY FROM THE
DEPRESSION AS FORECAST BY THE AVIATION MODEL.  HOWEVER...IF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THIS
STRENGTHENING MAY NEVER OCCUR.  OUR CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIFOR AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT EASILY DETERMINED IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A GUESS AT A CENTER NEAR THE SMALL CLUSTER
OF DEEP CONVECTION FITS A REASONABLE EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE LAST
LIGHT VISIBLE PICS THAT DID SHOW A VERY WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/04.  THE AVIATION MODEL PERSISTS IN
SHOWING A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SO A
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITH TIME.  OUR
CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IN CLOSEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL NHC91.  THE
SHALLOW-LEVEL BAM AND GFDL MODELS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY BUT
ARE SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

MAYFIELD

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     11/0900Z 12.5N 115.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 12.8N 116.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 14.6N 119.2W    40 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.6N 121.3W    45 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W    45 KTS

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