Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 270453z Oct 97//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 26 Oct 1997 23:17:11 -0600

682
WTPN21 PGTW 270500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 270453Z OCT 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/260453Z OCT 97//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
260500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.1N8
169.9E5 TO 7.9N6 165.8E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 270330Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.5N1 169.0E6.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS
FROM AILINGLAPALAP (WMO 91367) AND JALUIT ATOLL (WMO
91368). SHORTLY AFTER REF A WAS ISSUED, THE AREA OF
CONVECTION BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CENTRAL
CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER,
THROUGH THE LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS THE CENTRALIZED
CONVECTION WEAKENED AND SHEARED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. WITH RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ONCE AGAIN
DISCERNIBLE WITH A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC DATA,
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA
CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 280500Z5.//

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