Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 5

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 Aug 1997 09:37:09 +1900

494
WTPZ41 KNHC 181434
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 18 1997

VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH IGNACIO.  THE
DEPRESSION IS NEARING 23 DEG C SSTS SO FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN 36 HOURS BUT
ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED SOONER THAN THAT SINCE THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SOON BECOME INSIGNIFICANT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM IGNACIO SHOULD BE ADVECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 345/12.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK MAINTAINS THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR 36 HOURS...BY WHICH TIME THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE DISSIPATING.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW LAYER
STEERING MODEL...BAMS.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     18/1500Z 25.1N 121.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 26.8N 122.2W    25 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 29.0N 123.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 31.5N 123.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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