Subject: Indian-S: Technical Discussion (Automatic)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 27 Jan 1997 02:40:03 -0600

363
WTXS31 PGTW 270900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 016
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- 12.8S1 90.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 90.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 12.1S4 91.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 11.6S8 91.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 11.3S5 90.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 11.5S7 89.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION 12.6S9   90.9E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  AFTERWARDS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY,
THEN MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO EASTERLY STEERING FLOW.  NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG 271953Z7) AND 280900Z9 (DTG
280753Z5). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS
18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

5 (DTG 271351Z9),
272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z60, AND
280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270600Z IS 20 FEET.//

ROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND
MOVE INWARDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CARLE/MEST/REZA//
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TTT

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