Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 8 [140842]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Jul 1997 03:41:59 -0500

543
WTPZ42 KNHC 140842
TCDEP2
HURRICANE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 14 1997

ENRIQUE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED
SLIGHTLY.  MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 305/13.  THE HURRICANE IS RESPONDING
TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CLEARLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED NEAR 26N 131W.  THE LATEST AVN FORECAST SHOWS THIS LOW
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT.  HOWEVER I
HAVE NOT SHOWN QUITE AS MUCH OF A NORTHWARD TURN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD BECAUSE BOTH ENRIQUE AND THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO
WEAKEN...AND THE WEAKENED ENRIQUE MAY RESPOND MORE TO LOW/MID-LEVEL
STEERING BY THAT TIME.  THE 72-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS VERY CLOSE TO
THAT SHOWN BY THE MEDIUM-DEPTH BAM.

THE EYE IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED AT THIS TIME. INTENSITY IS HELD AT
90 KNOTS AS PER SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE HIGH CLOUD PATTERN IS
BECOMING ELONGATED TO THE NORTH AND THE OUTFLOW IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC
AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...AND
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WHEN ENRIQUE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS NEAR
20N LATITUDE.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     14/0900Z 14.1N 122.9W    90 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.3N 124.6W    90 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.9N 126.8W    90 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 18.7N 128.8W    90 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 130.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W    60 KTS

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