Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Storm Rick Discussion Number 5

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 8 Nov 1997 14:41:55 -0600

185
WTPZ44 KNHC 082041
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST SAT NOV 08 1997

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A SMALL NET INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...INCLUDING THE SOMEWHAT LARGER AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED SINCE EARLIER TODAY.  THE CONSENSUS OF
THE THREE SATELLITE ANALYSIS UNITS IS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  IT BECOMES T.S. RICK ON THIS ADVISORY.

AN INCREASING EASTWARD COMPONENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED TODAY.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 040/7 KT.  THE AVN IS CONSISTENT
WITH RECENT RUNS...SHOWING A STEERING CURRENT THAT SHOULD DRIVE RICK
TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOW THAT MOTION AS WELL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

RAPPAPORT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     08/2100Z 13.6N 102.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 14.4N 101.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 15.6N 100.4W    50 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 16.8N  98.7W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     10/1800Z 17.7N  97.1W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.