Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 26 [202032]

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 20 Jul 1997 15:32:10 -0500

974
WTPZ43 KNHC 202032
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 1997

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/15.  THE AVIATION MODEL
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 150 WEST.  THIS IS
THE BASIS FOR SLOWING THE FORWARD SPEED A LITTLE.  THE DIRECTION OF
MOTION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME FOR 72 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE HELD STEADY FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO
BACK OFF A LITTLE ON THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE LATER FORECAST
PERIODS AS THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DO NOT GET REAL COLD.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     20/2100Z 17.2N 136.4W   100 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 17.7N 138.7W    95 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 141.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 19.2N 144.3W    65 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 19.9N 146.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 21.4N 151.0W    35 KTS

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