Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Guillermo Discussion Number 26

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 5 Aug 1997 21:36:19 -0500

288
WTPZ44 KNHC 060236
TCDEP4
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EYE...BUT THE SURROUNDING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM UP.  WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY REMAINS AT T NUMBER 7.0...OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE BELOW
6.0 AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED 5 KNOTS TO 130 KNOTS.
THE FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH THE HURRICANE MOVING OVER
WATER COLDER THAN 26C AFTER 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STEADY AT 275/15.  ALL OF THE MODELS
CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A DEEP LAYER
MEAN RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     06/0300Z 15.0N 124.5W   130 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.2N 126.7W   125 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.5N 129.6W   120 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.3N 132.2W   115 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N 135.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 19.0N 139.0W    85 KTS

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