Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Depression Eleven-e Discussion Number 1

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 Aug 1997 09:55:27 +1900

847
WTPZ41 KNHC 171452
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 1997

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE
WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THERE IS
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER AND FURTHER
STRENGTHENING...TO A TROPICAL STORM...APPEARS LIKELY TODAY.  HOWEVER
THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24 DEG C IN 24 HOURS.
THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

CENTER LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN BUT FIXES USING 85 GHZ DATA GIVE A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 12 KNOTS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH...AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  HOWEVER BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WHICH TO BE CONCERNED.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     17/1500Z 21.7N 119.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 23.4N 119.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 25.2N 120.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 27.0N 121.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 29.0N 121.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 32.5N 119.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING

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