Subject: Pacific-EN: Hurricane Jimena Discussion Number 12

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Aug 1997 03:24:49 -0500

454
WTPZ42 KNHC 280826
TCDEP2
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 28 1997

THE EYE IS NOT LONGER OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES BUT IT IS
PROBABLY OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY. JIMENA HAS AN EMBEDDED
CENTER SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND I WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE EYE BRIEFLY REAPPEARS LATER TODAY. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 100 KT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/09.

WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF JIMENA BUT ALSO THERE IS A MID TO LOW
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS MEANS AN
EASTERLY STEERING AT THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING ABOVE.  THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT IS
INDICATED BY THE WESTWARD MOTION SUGGESTED BY BAM SHALLOW AND THE
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK SUGGESTED BY BAM DEEP AND MEDIUM.  SINCE JIMENA
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING DUE TO SHEAR AND COOL WATERS...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
WEST AFTER 24 HOURS AS INDICATED BY BAM SHALLOW.  THIS FORECAST IS
ALSO CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS...UK AND AVN MODELS AND CLIMATOLOGY.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     28/0900Z 16.5N 136.8W   100 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.8N 137.3W    90 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 18.9N 138.7W    80 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 140.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 142.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 20.5N 145.0W    30 KTS

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