Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 17 Jan 1998 18:41:45 -0600

035
WTXS31 PGTW 180300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z9 --- 17.0S8 38.2E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 236 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG9668 UNCLAS
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 38.2E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 18.4S3 37.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 219 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 20.1S3 36.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 203 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---

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   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 21.8S1 36.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 23.4S9 36.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION 17.4S2 38.2E3
AS OF 172230Z5, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED IN THE
ZAMBEZIA PROVINCE OF MOZAMBIQUE, APPROXIMATELY 30NM
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG9668 UNCLAS
AT 13 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM 172230Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURROUNDING
SYNOPTIC DATA. PAST MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS SUGGESTS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND BE
LOCATED OVER WATER. SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA AND
NUMEROUS SHIP REPORTS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120NM
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS DATA ALSO SUGGESTS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S, IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW
FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES OVER WATER AND INTERACTION WITH LAND DIMINISHES.
AT THE 48 HOUR PERIOD, TC 13S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 13
FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG9668 UNCLAS
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z5 (DTG 181353Z1) AND
190300Z3 (DTG 190153Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P
(KATRINA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
BT
#9668

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