Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 21 May 1998 13:28:14 -0500

375
ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/211800Z/221800Z MAY 98//
REF/A/RMG NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/201951Z MAY 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 201800Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.3N9 93.8E0 AND WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B FINAL WARNING NR 11 (WTIO31 PGTW
202100)) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1
91E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8S8 92E1. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CIRCULATION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND THE CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS POOR AND THUS HAS NOT
SHOWN ANY INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 8S8 57E2.  THE
AREA OF CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION ARE LOCATED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS BOTH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS MODERATE, BUT THE CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS MODERATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LUNSFORD/HILDEBRAND/SANCHEZ/BACON//

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