Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 25 Dec 1998 12:13:00 -0600

999
ABIO10 PGTW 251800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/251800Z/261800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/251500Z DEC 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 251200Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CATHY) WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.0S8 97.4E0 MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED ARE 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR 15N6 100E1
HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CATHY). SEE ITEM 2.A.(1)
AND REF A ABOVE FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS
NEAR 14.5S0 124.0E7. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS
AND THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED CLOSE TO LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS
NEAR 11.0S2 133.0E7. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED CLOSE TO LAND AND ANY DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/MCCULLOCH/BROOKS//

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