Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 34s Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 19 Apr 1998 21:35:23 -0500

930
WTXS31 PGTW 200300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z2 --- 11.6S8 71.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 120 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 71.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 12.5S8 69.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 13.3S7 67.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 14.1S6 65.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 15.0S6 63.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION 11.8S0   71.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34P IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. THE SY
STEM HAS
DECREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12-HOURS. WE HAVE INDICATED A
DEGRADED
POSITION ACCURACY OF 120 NM DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY OF LOCATING THE LOW
LEVEL
CENTER IN THE INFRARED FROM LIMITED SATELLITE COVERAGE. TROPICAL CYCL
ONE
34S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT TH
E
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL DATA FROM DIEGO GARCIA (WMO 61967) INDIC
ATES
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. WE EXPECT THI
S TO HALT
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT INTENSIFICA
TION AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND VERTICAL W
IND SHEAR
ABATES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT W
ARNINGS AT
201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2) AND 210300Z6 (DTG 210151Z0).//

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