Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 17 Apr 1998 08:53:22 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

934
ABIO10 PGTW 171300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/171300Z/171800Z APR 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9
135E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S1 130E4.  THIS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER.  THIS AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN AN
AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
GOOD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
55E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13S4 59E4. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4
91E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 84E2. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADE SUSPECT AREA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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