Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 5 Feb 1998 12:20:02 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

511
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/051800ZFEB98/061800ZFEB98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19S0
44E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20S2 46E0. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS TRACKED EAST OVER MADAGASCAR. ORGANIZATION HAS
REMAINED GOOD AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER.
    (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 09S9
078E5 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE RATHER
THAN A DISTINCT CIRCULATION AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
    (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 11S2 085E3.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. LIMITED SYNOPTIC
DATA SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
    (4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 24 HOURS AND IS
LOCATED NEAR 13S4 134E8 OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCTIVE
CIRCULATION WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
45 NM TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: HILDEBRAND/HATFIELD/JONES//

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