Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 May 1998 17:13:11 -0500

412
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z MAY 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10N0 86E4 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 10N0 82E0.  THIS CONVECTION IS PART OF A
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE ARABIAN
SEA AND OVER SOUTHERN INDIA.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 8S8 83E1.  THIS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR 24 HOURS.  MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, ANIMATED IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1006 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 15S6 75E2.  THIS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR 24 HOURS.  ANIMATED IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT
1007 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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