Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Feb 1998 12:51:04 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

759
ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/251800Z/261800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 250630Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
    A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
 AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF CARPENTERIA LOCATED
NEAR 15.4S0 139.3E6 IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT.  SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW) FOR DETAILS.  NOTE: THIS AREA IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF 135E9 AND IS INCLUDED IN THE EVENT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THIS ADVISORY AREA.
?(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2S0 41.5E0 IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE COAST
OF WESTERN MADAGASCAR NEAR 17S8 45E9.  THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS.  ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN
ALL QUADRANTS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1005 MB. DUE TO SYSTEM INTERACTION WITH LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3S5 54.4E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0S5
56.4E5.  ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS
REGENERATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS POOR TO THE SOUTH, FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE.  251055Z8
SURFACE SYNOPTIC REPORT FROM PLAISANCE (WMO NUMBER 61990) INDICATES
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA PREVIOUSLY
NEAR 07S7 71E8 REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY.  ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS CONVECTION APPEARS
TO BE THE RESULT OF LINEAR CONVERGENCE AT THE GRADIENT LEVEL.  NO
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A
RESULT, THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT TO
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
?(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
AJTWC SENDS
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/EMERY/BELCHER//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUHPSGG50830561758

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