Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 15 Feb 1998 08:18:42 -0600

851
WTXS33 PGTW 151500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z9 --- 20.1S3 92.8E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 92.8E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 20.7S9 89.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 21.4S7 87.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 22.2S6 84.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 23.2S7 81.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION 20.3S5 92.0E1
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(VICTOR) HAS CONTINUED ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151203Z2 MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 151130Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC22S HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY, ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STILL VERY WELL ORGANIZED.
150830Z7 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY DISTINCT CIRCULATION
CENTER AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIGHT WRAPPING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CUMULOFORM CLOUDS.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A TRACK
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 12 HOURS AND TURN MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
DEVELOPS.  TC22S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151200Z9 IS 19 FEET.  SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AT
TWELVE-HOURLY INTERVALS.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG
160155Z8) AND 161500Z3 (DTG 161355Z1).//

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