Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 26 Dec 1998 20:24:27 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 270300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CATHY) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- NEAR 16.7S4 93.6E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 93.6E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 16.7S4 92.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 16.8S5 90.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 16.8S5 89.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 16.7S4 87.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4   93.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CATHY) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF 262330Z6 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CATHY) CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH. THE SYSTEM=S DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH OF ITS
LOW-LEVEL, A REFLECTION OF THE WIND SHEAR OCCURRING OVER THE SYSTEM.
SHEAR HAS INTERMITTENTLY RELAXED ALLOWING THE SYSTEM=S DEEP
CONVECTION TO REBUILD OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS
HAS ALLOWED TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CATHY) TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ITS
PRESENT INTENSITY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CATHY) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
TO ITS SOUTH. AS TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CATHY) TRACKS WESTWARD, IT
WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9) AND 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7).//

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