Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 9 Feb 1998 09:04:07 -0600

005
WTXS31 PGTW 091500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- 14.3S8 61.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 61.1E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 15.0S6 60.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 15.5S1 60.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 15.9S5 59.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 16.2S9 58.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 16.6S3 57.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION 14.5S0   61.0E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 5 KNOTS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT TERM TREND AS A PASSING MID-
LATTITUDE TROUGH EMPHASIZES THE WEAKENESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTER THE TWELVE HOUR POSITION, TC 20S (ANACELLE) IS
FORECAST TO REGAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT BECOMES
STEERED BY THE SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDS OF RIDGING LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT THE TC WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE RIDGE WEAKNESS AND CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SOUTHWARD. EITHER WAY, CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND
ORGANIZATION ARE EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5),
100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8), 100900Z0 (DTG 100751Z4) AND 101500Z7
(DTG 101351Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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