Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 13:38:01 -0600

682
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z MAR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/151353Z MAR 98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
    A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 151200Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WAS LOCATED
AT 22.5S9 077.9E3 AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WARNING NR8 (WTXS32
PGTW 151500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16S7
65E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14S5 67E3.  151521Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DEEP MID-
LEVEL CONVECTION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1007 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4
054E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9S9 51E6.  151130Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CIRCULATION.  ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
WEST.  HOWEVER, WESTERLY WINDS ARE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS ALLOWING FOR MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LUNSFORD/HILDEBRAND/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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