Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01b Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 May 1998 03:31:19 -0500

212
WTIO31 PGTW 180900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z5 --- 15.5N1 88.8E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N1 88.8E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 16.5N2 89.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 17.6N4 90.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 18.7N6 91.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 20.0N2 92.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 21.9N2 92.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION 15.8N4   89.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL AND IS
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY (30 KNOTS) IS BASED UPON 180530Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B IS A BROAD CIRCULATION AND IS
LOCATED ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS AT 200MB. THEREFORE IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS. ADDITIONALLY,
SINCE THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
EASTERN TIP OF BANGLADESH BY THE 72 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z5 (DTG 181351Z9), 182100Z2 (DTG 181951Z5), 190300Z3 (DTG
190151Z7) AND 190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 171551Z MAY 98 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 171600)//

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