Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 02s Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 29 Sep 1998 10:18:35 -0500

231
WTXS31 PGTW 291500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z4 --- 8.7S5 77.8E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S5 77.8E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 8.8S6 77.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 8.9S7 76.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 9.0S9 75.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 9.2S1 74.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 9.5S4 73.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION  8.7S5   77.6E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S CONTINUED
TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 291130Z6 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  291130Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION
APPROXIMATELY 20NM TO WEST. ANIMATION INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS SIMILAR AS TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD AS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.  AFTERWARDS, TC 02S IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9),
300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2), 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8) AND 301500Z9 (DTG
301353Z5).//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUHPSGG16632721353

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