Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Jul 1998 06:48:18 -0500

404
WTXS31 PGTW 230900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z1 --- 10.5S6 76.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 76.4E7
    ---

PAGE 03 RUEDMCC2178 UNCLAS
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 10.7S8 75.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 11.0S2 73.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 11.2S4 72.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---

PAGE 04 RUEDMCC2178 UNCLAS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 11.4S6 70.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 12.1S4 68.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION 10.5S6 76.0E3. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01S IS MOVING
WEST AT 7 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS BEEN RETARDING THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSIFICATION, HAS ABATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT
WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE

PAGE 05 RUEDMCC2178 UNCLAS
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE INTERPRETATION OF A DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY OF 2.0 (30 KNOTS). THE WIND RADII ARE A COMBINATION OF
CLIMATOLOGY AND SATELLITE INTERPRETATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TROPICAL FORECAST AIDS AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS NORTH

OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SINCE NOGAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY COME UNDER ADDITIONAL SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS,

WHICH WOULD RETARD FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO

INTENSIFY JUST SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT

WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 230451Z5 JUL 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 230500Z0) NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z1
(DTG 231351Z5), 232100Z8 (DTG 231951Z1), 240300Z9 (DTG 240151Z3) AND

240900Z5 (DTG 240751Z9).//
BT
#2178

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