Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 11:05:24 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

081
ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/091800Z/101800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/090753Z DEC 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9N9 72E9 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11N2 66E2. SYNOPTIC DATA AND ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF INDIA IN THE ARABIAN SEA.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, SHOWS THAT THIS CONVECTION IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 090600Z5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
12.3S6 127.9E9, MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 130 KNOTS GUSTING TO 160 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
090900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 95E4
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 95E4. A 090332Z7 SCATTEROMETER PASS
IDENTIFIES A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (SHOWING 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS) REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PERSISTENT CONVECTION.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A
DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/SANCHEZ/BACON//

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