Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 28 Jan 1998 22:12:23 -0600

263
WTXS31 PGTW 290300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 015
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z1 --- 19.5S5 109.9E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

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     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 109.9E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 19.6S6 108.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---

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   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 20.0S2 106.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 20.6S8 104.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:

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   310000Z4 --- 21.4S7 102.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 19.5S5  109.4E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. THIS HAS REDUCED THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY
AS WELL AS ITS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. TC 15S (TIFFANY) IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HIGH VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR
12 HOURS AND CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 282330Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7
(DTG 291351Z1) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG2108 UNCLAS
BT
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