Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 34s Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 21 Apr 1998 00:36:35 -0500

042
WTXS31 PGTW 210300 RTD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z3 --- 12.3S6 66.0E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 66.0E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 13.1S5 63.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 14.0S5 61.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 15.0S6 59.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 16.0S7 56.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION 12.5S8   65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
210003Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A 210003Z6 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S HAS EXPERIENCED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THIS STEERING FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z9 (DTG 211351Z3)
AND 220300Z7 (DTG 220151Z1).//

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