Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 3 Jan 1998 23:32:28 -0600

604
WTXS23 PGTW 040500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040500Z JAN 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 165 NM RADIUS OF 15.7S3 141.0E6 WITHIN

PAGE 02 RUEOMCB1492 UNCLAS
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040230Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S3 141.0E6.  THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INTENSE CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER APPROXIMATELY 40 NM OFF THE
AUSTRALIAN COAST.  THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS AT 07 KNOTS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. IF THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN TURNS SOUTHWARD OR IF IT SLOWS IN
SPEED, IT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
MOVE INTO LAND THEREFORE PREVENTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
IF THE SYSTEM CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WATER THE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 050500Z0.//
BT
#1492

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