Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 31 Jan 1998 20:54:04 -0600

245
WTXS32 PGTW 010300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 021
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z1 --- 18.8S7 122.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG4641 UNCLASS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 122.7E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 19.8S8 122.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 20.4S6 121.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 20.9S1 121.1E5

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG4641 UNCLASS
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 21.2S5 120.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION 19.1S1  122.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AT 07 KNOTS.  THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
312330Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DRY AIR IS
BEING ENTRAINED FROM THE GREAT SANDY DESERT TO THE SOUTH AND
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER.  A SINGLE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOIST MARITIME AIR.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG4641 UNCLASS
AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  SEVERAL OF OUR DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS
SUGGEST AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE COAST AND MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY THROUGH
ENTRAINMENT OF MOIST MARITIME AIR.  THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW.  THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER WILL NOW
ISSUE TWELVE-HOURLY WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES).
SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MOVE BACK OVER THE COAST AND INTENSIFY, SIX-
HOURLY WARNINGS WILL BE RESUMED.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 12 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG
011353Z3) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1).//
BT
#4641

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