Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 6 Feb 1998 12:16:28 -0600

312
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/061800ZFEB98/071800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 061151Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
NEAR 12.7S0 064.5E5 AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYLONE
FORMATION ALERT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ORGANIZED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. REFER TO REF A FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20S2
046E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20S2 045E9. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMIANS ORGANIZED AND HAS
STARTED A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER MADAGASCAR. SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC
DATA INDICATES A BRAOD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER PRESSURES.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR UNTIL THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 085E3
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH NO
ORGANIZATION. THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4 134E8
HAS MOVED OVER THE TIMOR SEA AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13S4 129E2.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS. HOWEVER, LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
50NM FROM THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED
OVER WATER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF LAND IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
    (5) NO OTHER SUSPECTS.
FORECAST TEAM: HILDEBRAND/HATFIELD/JONES//

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