Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 3 Dec 1998 14:13:44 -0600

996
WTXS31 PGTW 032100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 17.5S3 117.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 117.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 17.8S6 116.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 18.3S2 115.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 19.0S0 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 20.0S2 113.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 22.6S0 112.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4  117.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 3 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 031730Z4 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS STEERING SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY)
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL THE 24-HOUR TRACK POSITION AT WHICH
TIME THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW
THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY)
IS LOCATED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SUGGESTING
THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS IT
MOVES AGAINST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG
040151Z1), 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7), 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4) AND
042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0).//

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