Subject: Indian-N: Amembassy Dhaka And Amembassy New Delhi.

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 May 1998 15:05:53 -0500

383
WTIO31 PGTW 182100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA,
AMEMBASSY DHAKA AND AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI.
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z8 --- 18.0N9 89.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N9 89.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 19.5N5 90.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 20.8N0 90.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 21.7N0 91.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 22.4N8 91.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 23.5N0 91.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION 18.4N3 90.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR
THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 181730Z0
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE STEERING FOR THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL AND
HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM=S
INTENSITY AND SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW THE SYSTEM=S FORWARD SPEED BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z
IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG 190151Z7), 190900Z9
(DTG 190751Z3), 191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0) AND 192100Z3 (DTG
191951Z6).//

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