Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 1998 08:32:22 -0600

285
WTXS31 PGTW 291500 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 016
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z4 --- 19.8S8 108.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 108.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 20.0S2 107.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 20.4S6 106.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 20.8S0 105.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION 19.9S9  108.5E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE SURFACE
RIDGING TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING
RAPIDLY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WATER
BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0) AND
301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  14P (LES)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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