Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 1998 07:58:42 -0600

276
WTXS31 PGTW 121500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z6 --- NEAR 18.9S8 090.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 090.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 18.7S6 090.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 18.5S4 089.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 18.3S2 088.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 18.2S1 088.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8  090.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 3
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
121130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 121130Z8 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND 121030Z7
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION INDICATIVE OF A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE
04S (ALISON) IS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ITS DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES
THE SYSTEM TOWADS THE WEST-NORTHWEST BECOMING MORE WESTWARD WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTAT 21200Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1) AND 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4).//

NNJHX

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