Subject: Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Gu/240251z Dec 98//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 Dec 1998 23:36:36 -0600

999
WTXS21 PGTW 240430
240421Z DEC 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/240251Z DEC 98//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 240300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S5 100.3E4 TO 20.7S9
100.4E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 240330Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 100.4E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN
THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT, FAIR ELSEWHERE. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 250430Z4.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.7S4 148.5E8.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCC06883580523

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