Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 28s (fiona) Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 18 Mar 1998 08:54:43 -0600

409
WTXS31 PGTW 181500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z2 --- 19.8S8 59.9E3

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG1141 UNCLAS
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 59.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 20.3S5 59.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 20.9S1 58.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG1141 UNCLAS
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 21.5S8 58.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 22.2S6 57.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG1141 UNCLAS
05 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
181200Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THIS SYSTEM HAS
LESSENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN INTENSITY. NO SIGNIFICANT (CHANGE TO
FORECAST TRACK REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN TURN
MORE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE FROM THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS EAST, THEN AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MODIFY THE STEERING FLOW. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN LEVEL OFF AS IT ENCOUNTERS
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z2 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 AND 191500Z6.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR THE
INITIAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#1141

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