Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 1998 04:14:33 -0600

072
WTXS32 PGTW 290900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 010
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG3471 UNCLAS
   WARNING POSITION:
   290600Z7 --- 14.4S9 127.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 127.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 14.7S2 126.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 15.0S6 124.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG3471 UNCLAS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 15.4S0 123.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 15.8S4 122.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 16.7S4 119.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG3471 UNCLAS
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION 14.5S0  127.3E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.

INTENSITIES AND WIND RADII ARE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO A SLIGHT DIPPING OF THE SYSTEM'S TRACK AND
SUBSEQUENT EARLY LANDFALL. THE EFFECTS OF LAND SHOULD BE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL AS IT COVERS A GREATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
THERE IS NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS

AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3), 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9), 300300Z6
(DTG 300153Z2) AND 300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
BT
#3471

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