Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 1998 11:22:06 -0600

954
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/041800Z/051800Z NOV 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N3 80E8
HAS MOVED OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13N4 71E8 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 16N7 68E4. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREA, BUT REMAINS
IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 11N2 85E3 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN A
REGION 0F WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/SMITH/HATFIELD/JONES//

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