Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 02:37:10 -0600

175
WTXS32 PGTW 110900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z8 --- NEAR 15.7S3 124.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 15.7S3 124.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 16.6S3 124.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 17.2S0 124.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 17.7S5 123.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 18.3S2 123.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 124.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 3 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TC 06S (THELMA) IS DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA EAST OF YAMPI SOUND. THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(THELMA) SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE COMBINED
EFFECTS
OF THE DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM MAINLAND AUSTRALIA REDUCING THE
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS
AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8).//

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