Subject: Indian-N: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Colombo And Amconsul Madras

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 11:45:43 -0500

507
WTIO31 PGTW 161500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG3609 UNCLAS
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z0 --- 18.3N2 068.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N2 068.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 19.5N5 070.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 20.5N7 072.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG3609 UNCLAS
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 21.1N4 073.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 21.2N5 074.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION 18.6N5  069.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG3609 UNCLAS
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 161101Z0 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING
35 KNOT WINDS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A REMAINS A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A
IS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL AT THE 36-
HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0
IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170155Z9) AND 171500Z4
(DTG 171355Z2).//
BT
#3609

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