Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 10s Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 25 Dec 1998 12:14:35 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 251500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z0 --- NEAR 17.0S8 97.4E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOS- 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WINE DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 97.4E0
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 17.3S1 95.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 17.6S4 94.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 18.1I
TF   MAX BVC IDWIPDS - 040 KT,8GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 K WQNDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                 0         030 NM SEWHERE
   VECTOR TO GRIPPRNOSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOKC
   48 HRS, VIRBNEPL WUQWPPZ2 --- 18.8S7 90.4E3
   MAX USTAINE WINDS - 035 KTP GUSTS 045 KT
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 97.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TC10S) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ATL08 KNOTS WHILE MAINTAINING ITS IMTENSITY. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 25/5130Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIVATES
OWOF T2.0
 TO T2.5 (30-35 KT) AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF C10S HAS IM49;3$ ?75 5#3
DEEP CONVULNEAR THE SYSTEM CETER HAA
M
H
CONSIDERABLY. SATELLITOMAGERY INDICATES CBLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEING DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER ON
THE SOUTH SIDE WHICH IS ACTING TO DECREASE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMEPT. MOST OF TH LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO C10S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGTUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATER
(27C SST). AS A RESULT, LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 68 HOURS EVEN T OUGH TC10;- 8- >943:--5 59
REMAIN IN A LODGEAR ENVIRONMENT AND UNDERNEATH A FAVORABLE
200 ;? 48$<3 -/8-. OWING TO THE  ACK OF DEE :9,;3:589,...
TC10 IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED MORE BY THE EASTERLY LOW=
AND MID-LEVEL WIND FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT LIES ALONG 35S LATITUDE. MABWMUM
OQ
VPNEH
GHT AT 251200Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300ZQG$5< 260151Z5) AND 231500Z4 DTG
261351Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (CORA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNCN

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