Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 20 Apr 1998 14:04:09 -0500

528
ABIO10 PGTW 201800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/201800Z/211800ZAPR98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/201351ZAPR98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 201200Z3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S WAS LOCATED AT
11.7S9 68.4E8 AND MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 34S WARNING NR 06
(WTXS31 201500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
?(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1
99E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 105E6. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS AREA HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY DISORGANIZED
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS
EVIDENT, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
?(2) A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE IN 2.B.(1) NEAR 4S4 90E9 OVER THE
PAST 12-18 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
WEAK CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTION IS WIDELY DISPERSED AND
DISORGANIZED.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTS LONGITUDE IN SECTION 2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: EDSON/LUNSFORD/SCHIBER/MCCULLOCH/BACON//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RUEDMCA19481101858

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