Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 1 Feb 1998 07:44:17 -0600

400
WTXS32 PGTW 011500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 022
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z4 --- 20.4S6 122.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 122.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 21.6S9 121.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 22.6S0 122.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 23.2S7 122.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION 20.7S9 122.1E6
AMIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(LES) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND
OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESERT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND
IT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN THAT
SUGGESTS A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH
THROUGH 24 HOURS WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, DRY AIR FROM THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN
AND WIND SHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW 35 KNOTS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5
(DTG 020153Z1) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021353Z4).//

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