Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gemma) Warning Nr 011

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 Apr 1998 21:15:34 -0500

475
WTXS31 PGTW 120300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z3 --- 15.1S7 077.0E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 077.0E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 15.5S1 077.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 16.1S8 077.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 16.9S6 076.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 17.5S3 076.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
1200Z6 POSITION 15.2S8  077.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) IS QUASISTATIONARY IN THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE SYSTEM
BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE THAN 18 HOURS AGO. THE SHEAR IS HINDERING
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH NOT CAUSING A MARKED WEAKENING. TC
32S (GEMMA) IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111747Z SCATTEROMETER
PASS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER
PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3) AND 130300Z7 (DTG
130151Z1).//

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