Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In South Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Apr 1998 10:27:04 -0500

465
WTXS31 PGTW 121500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z6 --- 14.7S2 78.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 78.0E5
    ---

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG0153 UNCLAS
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 14.9S4 78.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 15.5S1 79.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 16.7S4 79.6E2

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG0153 UNCLAS
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 17.9S7 78.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION 14.7S2   78.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) HAS BEEN TRACKING EASTWARD AT 5
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
121130Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 121130Z8 AND 121132Z0 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG0153 UNCLAS
OF 45 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STEERING FLOW FROM THE 700 MB AND 850 MB NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THIS STEERING
INFLUENCE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 36 HOUR POSITION AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SYSTEM'S NORTHEAST.  BY THE 48
HOUR POSITION, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW
LEVEL FLOW.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM'S CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED
AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121200Z IS 14 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1)
AND 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4).//
BT
#0153

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