Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (anacelle) Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 8 Feb 1998 20:55:30 -0600

267
WTXS31 PGTW 090300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- 13.3S7 60.8E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 60.8E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 13.3S7 60.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 13.4S8 59.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 13.6S0 58.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 14.0S5 57.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 15.2S8 55.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION 13.3S7 60.7E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090001Z0 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
KGWC AND CONTINUITY WITH A 080607Z1 SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S= (ANNACELLE)
POSITION WAS FURTHER SOUTH AND ITS INTENSITY WAS LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS WARNINGS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS, THE
080607Z1 SCATTEROMETER PASS AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT
SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN IN 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE)
SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEER SHOULD REMAIN LOW
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2),
091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9), 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5) AND 100300Z4
(DTG 100151Z8).//

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