Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 29 Oct 1998 12:36:54 -0600

209
ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/291800Z/301800Z OCT 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13N4 85E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17N8 83E1.  291208Z2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE WEST ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
IS HINDERING OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER
THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN INDIA. UN-OFFICIAL SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS
FROM OFF-SHORE PLATFORMS SUGGEST SHORT DURATION WINDS TO BE NEAR 35
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC DATA FROM SHORE STATIONS IN THE AREA
INDICATE A MAX OF 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED. PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, IN CONJUNCTION WITH EXPECTED
INCREASED LAND INTERACTION, SHOULD HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM STALLS, THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF LAND MAY BE
MINIMIZED. THIS IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR KEEPING THIS DISTURBANCE
CATAGORIZED AS A =FAIR= SUSPECT AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 92E1
HAS DISSIPATED WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD TROUGHING AND NON-PERSISTANT
DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED TO BE SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 09S9 086E4. ALTHOUGH
THIS CONVECTION HAS ONLY PERSISTED FOR APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS, A
291208Z MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES FAIRLY ORGANIZED
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEATURES. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE AREA IS MODERATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BOYER/PATTERSON/GOODMAN//

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