Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 8 Nov 1998 11:50:19 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

778
ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081800Z/091800Z NOV 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/081351Z NOV 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11N2 68E4 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 13N4 68E4. THIS AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC
CURVATURE. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA AND A 071752Z2 SCATTEROMETER
PASS INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A 081359Z6
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS SHOWS NO DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE CONVECTION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 9N9 96E5 AND HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 10 HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS WITHIN A REGION
OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10N1 95E4
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
     (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 081200Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) WAS LOCATED AT
11.8S0 98.2E9 AND MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 081500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 99E8 IS
NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA 2.A.(1) FOR
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/SMITH/HATFIELD/JONES//

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