Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 13 Feb 1998 12:17:12 -0600

649
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/131800Z/141800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 131351Z FEB 98//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 131355Z FEB 98//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 130551Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
 1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
 COAST OF AFRICA):
 A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
 B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
 2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
 AFRICA):
 A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 131200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WAS
LOCATED AT 30.5S8 66.6E8, MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE)
WARNING NR 16 (WTXS31 PGTW 131500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 131200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WAS LOCATED
AT 17.7S5 106.7E4, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING
NR 11A (WTXS33 PGTW 131800)) AND SIX-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18S9
44E8 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF
C (WTXS21 PGTW 130600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15S6
AND 70E7 REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO
PERSIST BUT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE DUE TO THE COVERAGE OF
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW FROM TC 20S (ANACELLE). SEA LEVEL PRESSURES
REMAIN HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BOYER/JOHNSON/BOYD//

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