Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 6 Dec 1998 12:08:08 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

407
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/061800Z/071800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/061351Z DEC 98//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/060753Z DEC 98//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 061200Z TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.6S0 115.6E3, MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 061500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THIS WAS THE FINAL WARNING ON
TC05S
(BILLY).
     (2) AT 060600Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WAS LOCATED NEAR
9.6S5 130.9E3, MOVING WESTWARD AT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 060900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
     (3) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 88E6 IS
NOW NEAR 12S3 93E2. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA
OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. ALSO 061200Z9 SHIP REPORTS (J8FN AND 9KKS) HAVE REPORTED 25-37
KNOTS ABOUT 150NM UPSTREAM. THIS APPROACHING SURGE SHOULD LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HENCE, THIS AREA IS UPGRADED
FROM POOR TO FAIR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (2)  A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9S9 71E8 OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION AND DEIGO GARCIA (WMO 61967) HAS
REPORTED GUSTS UP TO 17KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. AN EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER PASS (051800Z4) INDICATED 15-20KT WINDS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS CIRCULATION. CURRENT SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH SURROUNDING THE CIRCULATION THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM:
PARSONS/MCCULLOCH/HERRON/PARKER/BALDINGER/JACKSON/JONES//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.