Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 3 Jun 1998 22:03:41 -0500

581
WTIO31 PGTW 040300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z4 --- 11.7N9 70.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N9 70.1E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 11.9N1 69.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 12.0N3 68.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 12.1N4 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 12.2N5 67.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 12.6N9 66.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION 11.7N9   69.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ARABIAN SEA
AND IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 040100Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND ANIMATION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM
RIDGING BUILDING TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER, THIS FLOW IS RATHER WEAK
RESULTING IN A VERY SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT 72 HOURS
,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALTHOUGH AT A SLOW
SPEED DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A SLOW RATE AS SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE
PARTIALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE WIND RADII ASSYMETR
Y
WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7), 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4), 042100Z
7
(DTG 041951Z0) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 030159Z JUN 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 030100)//
BT
#0001

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