Subject: Indian-N: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Gu/102121z Nov 98//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 11 Nov 1998 15:41:08 -0600

549
WTIO21 PGTW 112130
112129Z NOV 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/102121Z NOV 98//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 092130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N0 63.7E6 TO 13.1N5 56.1E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N0 62.7E5.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SUSPECT AREA HAS ENTERED INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 111620Z1 MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS SUPPORTS THIS
NOTION BUT ALSO DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
HENCE, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED
WIND SHEAR, THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IMPLIES
THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE SHEAR
ABATES. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 122130Z9.//

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