Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 8 Feb 1998 02:24:24 -0600

740
WTXS31 PGTW 080900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- 13.2S6 62.7E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 62.7E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 13.2S6 61.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 13.3S7 60.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 13.5S9 59.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 13.9S3 58.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 14.6S1 57.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION 13.2S6   62.5E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST 06 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 080408Z0
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM FJDG.  ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND 35
KNOTS FROM FJDG AND KGWC.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 13 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4), 090300Z2
(DTG 090151Z6) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2).//

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