Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 3 Jan 1998 00:56:11 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

637
ABIO10 PGTW 030700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/030700Z JAN 98 /031800Z JAN 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 21S3
89E7. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 030432Z2 AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AT 0302252 INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS THE REMNANT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SELWYN).  THE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE
THAT A MODERATE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT
OVER THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER, FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS HAD CONVECTION PERSISTENTLY FLARING UP
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DESPITE THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/SMITH/SANCHEZ/UROGI//

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