Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 31 Jan 1998 14:53:41 -0600

347
WTXS32 PGTW 312100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 020
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z3 --- 17.8S6 122.8E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG4135 UNCLASS
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 122.8E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 18.3S2 122.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 18.9S8 121.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG4135 UNCLASS
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 19.6S6 120.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 20.2S4 120.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG4135 UNCLASS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 21.3S6 119.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION 17.9S7 122.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER WATER AND LAND. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC DATA AND A SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
SIMILAR AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE.
HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM CONTNIUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DIMINISH. THEREFORE, AS

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG4135 UNCLASS
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P CONTINUES A TRACK ALONG THE COAST THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER WATER BETWEEN THE 24 AND 48
HOUR PERIOD WHERE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR. AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH LAND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0), 010900Z0
(DTG 010753Z6), 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3) AND 012100Z4
(DTG 011953Z9).//
BT
#4135

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