Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 34s Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 19 Apr 1998 03:13:06 -0500

686
WTXS31 PGTW 190900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z6 --- 10.5S6 74.2E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 74.2E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 10.8S9 72.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 11.3S5 70.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 11.8S0 68.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 12.5S8 66.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 14.1S6 63.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION 10.6S7   73.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 190530Z8 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST
REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WEAK TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW ONLY A SLOW RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0), 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6), 200300Z5 (DTG
200151Z9), AND 200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
35S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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