Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 15 Mar 1998 20:25:47 -0600

392
WTXS32 PGTW 160300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z7 --- 23.1S6 77.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 77.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 24.1S7 77.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 25.6S3 78.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION 23.4S9  77.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
INTERPOLATION BETWEEN 152330Z4 AND 152333Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 152330Z4 SATELLITE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN A TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS
THE FRONT PASSES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) HAS EXPERIENCED
A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE
BY THE 24 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 161500Z3 (DTG 161353Z9).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.