Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 3 Feb 1998 21:48:18 -0600

584
ABIO10 PGTW 040330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/040330ZFEB98/051800ZFEB98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20S2
36E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18S9 40E4. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS TO HAVE WARMED OVER THE
PAST 4 HOURS AND HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AFFECTS HAVE DECREASED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 KNOTS TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
   (2) THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 08S8 077E4.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTANT FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AT 031426Z6 AND A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 031752Z8 INDICATE
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20
KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
   (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: TO ADD A SUSPECT AREA.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/SMITH/MCCULLOCH/BACON//

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