Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 11:45:52 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

979
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/231800Z/241800Z NOV 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.5S9 70.5E2 HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
SOME OF THE CONVECTION IS SHEARING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE AREA OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS
ORGANIZED THAN 12 HOURS AGO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13S5 113E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14S5 116E8, NORTHWEST OF
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 36 HOURS
AND CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE AREA
OF CONVECTION IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND ON 231023Z1 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM:
SCHIBER/WAKEHAM/PATTERSON/TIRSCHEL/GOODMAN/BROOKS/HOWELLS/BALDINGER/
JACKSON//

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