Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 4 Dec 1998 11:13:18 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

009
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/041800Z/051800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/041351Z DEC 98//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/040951Z DEC 98//
NARR/REF A, TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B, TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 041200Z TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.9S8 116.4E2, MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 041500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 135E9
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9S9 134E8 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 041000)). THIS BROAD
AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE ARAFURA SEA HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE
ORGANIZED. SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA AND A 040100Z5 SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOW
A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THIS CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
    (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9 87E5 HAS
REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA
OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST AND
IS SHOWING EVIDENCE OF MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS. THIS AREA
REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FAIR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PATTERSON/TRETHEWEY//

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