Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 9 Nov 1998 08:38:30 -0600

704
WTXS31 PGTW 091400
1. TROPICAL CHCLONE 04S (ALISON) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- 13.8S2 095.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWGERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 095.6E0
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.2S7 094.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 14.6S1 093.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAT SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 15.1S7 091.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM VBOFYE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM E-32#343
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 15.6S2 090.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAET SEMICIRCLE
   #                        060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUT EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
-REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION 13.9S3  095.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLNE 04S (ALISON) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9
;(,95- 9;34 5#3 0--5 6 HOURS. THE WA
NING POSITION IS BASED ON
091142Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS IS BASED ON 091130Z4 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND
75 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) CONTINUES TO INOENSIFY AND
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. ANIMWTED WATER VAPOR IM YY
SHOWS TH S RIDGE IS REBUILDING AND HAS DEVELOPED A NORTHWEST=
1-975#3--5 9483,5-589,. THE STEERING FLOW FROM THI RIDGE SHOULD KEEP

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYC9,3 RS (ALISON) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THKOUGHOUT THE FORENAST PERIODWM MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHO AT 091200Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8) AND 101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1).//

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