Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 4 Dec 1998 00:42:57 -0600

188
ABIO10 PGTW 040630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/040630Z/041800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/040151Z DEC 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 040000Z TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.2S1 116.9E7, MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9 88E6 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 9S9 87E5. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STEADY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 10S1 135E9 IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 9N9 AND 134E.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD PERSISTENT
AREA OF CONVECTION WITH CYCLONIC TURNING. SHIP REPORTS IN THE
ARAFURA SEA INDICATE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 15 TO 25
KNOT WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED WITHIN A WELL
DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVERLIES THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREA
3. JUSTIFICATION: TO UPGRADE AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.2.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/JOHNSON/BACON//

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