Subject: Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Gu/181521z Apr 98

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 12:31:52 -0500

354
WTXS21 PGTW 181500
181451Z APR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/181521Z APR 98
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S4 127.4E4 TO 13.4S8
121.6E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 181200Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 126.2E1.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
LATEST SERIES OF ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGES INDICATES THAT THE
CIRCULATION IN THE TIMOR SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT WIND INTENSITIES
OF UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED EARLIER BY
DATA FROM THE ERS-1 SCATTEROMETER AT 18/0139Z WHICH SHOWED WINDS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IN THE REGION IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION, BUT IS CURRENTLY BEING SLIGHTLY INHIBITED BY
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
SEE REF A (WTXS22 PGTW) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 191500Z6.//

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