Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 1998 01:54:32 -0500

014
WTXS21 PGTW 040630
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040553Z SEP 98//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2S3 82.8E8 TO 14.4S9 73.6E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040230Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S0 81.5E4.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  A 040245Z5 MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS CONFIRMS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED. 040230Z9 SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 30 KNOTS. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED
80 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, HOWEVER THE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 050630Z4.//

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