Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 17 Jan 1998 13:41:31 -0600

063
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z/181800Z JAN 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13S4 42E6 HAS NOW MOVED OVER LAND.  ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS
MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ONTO THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST.  AS
LONG AS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER LAND, SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.  HOWEVER,
THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN CASE
IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
     (2)  AN AREA OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR
11S2 75E2.  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA
OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA.  EARLIER, VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 170830Z INDICATED A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, ALTHOUGH ONLY MINIMAL CONVECTION WAS
PRESENT AT THAT TIME.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/SMITH/SANCHEZ/UROGI//

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