Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 9 Oct 1998 09:11:39 -0500

354
WTXS31 PGTW 091500 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- 14.5S0 96.5E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 96.5E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.8S3 97.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 15.4S0 97.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 16.0S7 97.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 16.5S2 96.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION 14.6S1 96.6E1.
THE POSITION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) HAS BEEN RELOCATED.
RELOCATION WAS DUE TO EXTENSIVE SHEARING OCCURRING OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (WARNING
POSITION) IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND APPROXIMATELY 230NM NORTHWEST OF
THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATES TC 03S HAS MOVED
EASTWARD AT 8 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY (35 KTS) ARE BASED ON INFRARED (091130Z4) AND MICROWAVE
(091122Z5) SATELLITE ANALYSIS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THE SUDDEN SHIFT, BETWEEN 082100Z1-090300Z2, IN THE TRACK AS THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR INCREASED SEPARATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TRACKING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 03S SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. FORWARD MOTION
SHOULD SLOW AS TC 03S BEGINS TRANSITIONING BETWEEN THE STEERING
REGIMES. AS TC 03S REMAINS A LOW-LEVEL SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO BE
SHEARED, THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TC 03S SHOULD
DROP BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (35 KTS) IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2
IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 (DTG 100155Z2) AND 101500Z7
(DTG 101355Z5).//

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