Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Dec 1998 03:24:40 -0600

192
WTXS32 PGTW 100900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z7 --- NEAR 13.4S8 126.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 13.4S8 126.1E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 13.9S3 125.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 14.4S9 124.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 15.2S8 123.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 15.8S4 122.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 125.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
100530Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF 100530Z9 SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS PRESENTLY DISPLAYING A
30-NM PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE, BUT ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE FEATURE HAS EXPANDED AND
CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS
APPARENTLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR
INTRUSION FROM THE FLOW COMING IN OFF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z7 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9) AND
110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7).//

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