Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 23:27:54 -0500

080
WTXS31 PGTW 090300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- 17.5S3 96.4E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS

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     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 96.4E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 19.6S6 97.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 21.7S0 99.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS

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    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 23.4S9 101.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 24.4S0 104.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION 18.0S9 96.7E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) HAS
TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 6
HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (45 KNOTS) ARE BASED ON
THE 082330Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED IN
AN AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG7453 UNCLAS
AN AREA OF GREATER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS A
RESULT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING THE AREA. TC 03S
(ZELIA)IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO

ITS EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD
MOTION AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG WESTERLIES. TC 03S
(ZELIA) IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS IT
EXPERIENCES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
48-HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 15
FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 (DTG 091355Z3) AND 100300Z4
(DTG100155Z2).//
BT
#7453

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