Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 13:36:30 -0600

198
ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/241800Z/251800Z NOV 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/240051Z NOV 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5S5 71S8
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6S6 69E5. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, 241200Z9 SYNOPTIC REPORTS INDICATE THAT A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTS IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. SEE
REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 240100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14S5
116E8, NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA, HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND IS NOW SPORADIC. ADDITIONALLY, 241200Z9
SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE AREA RATHER THAN A
DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, THE AREA IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LUNSFORD/SANCHEZ/TRETHEWEY//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCA00293281909

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