Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 08:26:42 -0600

664
WTXS32 PGTW 141500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z8 --- 21.4S7 80.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 80.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 22.1S5 80.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 23.2S7 80.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 24.5S1 80.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 26.0S8 80.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION 21.6S9 80.8E6
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S
(ELSIE) IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR FROM THE
WEST.  THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 141130Z0
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CURRENT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHICH SHOWS A MAJORITY
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHERLY
TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA WITH INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 16 FEET.  NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5) AND 151500Z2 (DTG
151353Z8).//

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