Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 16 Mar 1998 11:45:38 -0600

335
ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z MAR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/161353Z MAR 98//
RMKS/
1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
    A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 161200Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WAS LOCATED
AT 24.7S3 077.0E4 AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WARNING NR10 (WTXS32
PGTW 161500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15S6
062E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17S8 062E8. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS MAINTAINED IT=S ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER
ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 161101Z0 SATELLITE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WINDS OF 25 KNOTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS GOOD TO THE SOUTH
AND FAIR ELSEWHERE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LUNSFORD/HILDEBRAND/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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