Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 27s (elsie) Warning Nr 003a Amended

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 13 Mar 1998 03:11:24 -0600

289
WTXS32 PGTW 130300 AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WARNING NR 003A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---

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   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- 19.4S4 081.2E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 81.2E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 20.1S3 080.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:

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   140000Z5 --- 20.7S9 080.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 21.2S5 079.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 21.9S2 078.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

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                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
A REANALYSIS OF 130605Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND HAS A
SMALL, WELL-DEFINED CLOUD-FREE EYE. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ASSIMILATES THE SOUTHERN
CONVECTIVE MASS. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
48 HOURS UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTH. JUSTIFICATION
FOR AMENDMENT: TO INCREASE THE WARNING INTENSITY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8.//

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BT
#3356

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