Subject: Indian-S: 020751z Dec 98//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 2 Dec 1998 01:39:00 -0600

480
WTXS21 PGTW 020800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
020751Z DEC 98//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8S3 121.8E2 TO 18.0S9
117.1E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 020530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 15.4S0 120.6E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. IN ADDITION, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 030800Z1.//

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