Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 07b Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 20 Nov 1998 03:38:52 -0600

634
WTIO31 PGTW 200900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z8 --- NEAR 15.4N0 87.8E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N0 87.8E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 18.6N5 86.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 21.6N9 86.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 23.9N4 88.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 25.6N3 89.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.2N9  87.4E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS CONTINUED TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AT
18 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 200530Z0 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A 200154Z2 MICROWAVE SENSOR
IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 07B HAS ACCELERATED SINCE
THE 200000Z2 WARNING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH TO ITS WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK
BECOMES MORE NORTHWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER THE 12 AND 24
HOUR FORECAST POSITION, RESPECTFULLY. TC 07B IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. RECENT DATA
ALLOWING FOR AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE LOCATION OF TC 07B, AND THE
OVERALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND ACCELERATED
LANDFALL. AFTERWARDS, TC 07B SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 16 FEET. REFER
TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. WARNING TIMES
WILL RETURN TO 12 HOUR INTERVALS AT THE 201200Z5 WARNING. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201353Z4) AND 210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2).//

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