Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 8 Dec 1998 11:36:04 -0600

448
ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081800Z/091800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/080753Z DEC 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9N9 79E6 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N9 72E9. SYNOPTIC DATA AND ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOW THIS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED OFF SOUTHERN INDIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS CONVECTION IS WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 080600Z4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
11.6S8 129.5E7, MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 120 KNOTS GUSTING TO 145 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
080900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 95E4
HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA
OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH THROUGHOUT THIS
REGION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FAIR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/SANCHEZ/BACON//

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