Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (alison) Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 8 Nov 1998 20:33:48 -0600

917
WTXS31 PGTW 090300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- 13.5S9 96.8E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 96.8E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 14.1S6 95.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.7S2 93.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 15.3S9 92.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 15.8S4 91.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION 13.7S1 96.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ALISON) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
JUST SOUTH OF COCOS ISLAND AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 082330Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME FOR
TC 04S (ALISON), THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
AND SLOWED DUE TO THE SHIFTING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FUTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE WIND
RADII ARE BASED UPON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH SURFACE SYNOPTIC
DATA FROM COCOS ISLAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9) AND 100300Z4
(DTG 100151Z8).//

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