Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 5 Dec 1998 07:57:11 -0600

283
WTXS31 PGTW 051500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 012
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z8 --- NEAR 20.1S3 115.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 20.1S3 115.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 21.1S4 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 22.1S5 114.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 23.1S6 114.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 24.2S8 114.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6  115.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND CURRENT INTENSITY
(45KTS) ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGE ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES (55KTS) AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA (45 KTS).
THE MICROWAVE SCATTEROMETER PASS (050220Z9) INDICATED THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A FLARE-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM
OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS. THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION AROUND THE
CENTER INDICATES A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. UW
CIMSS WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS ALSO SHOW TC 05S (BILLY) IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S (BILLY) SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) SHOULD ALSO
COUNTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA DUE TO THE INCREASED WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL, TC 05S (BILLY) SHOULD DISSIPATE EVEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 14
FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1), 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3),
060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6).REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  06S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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