Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 28 Jan 1998 07:56:40 -0600

864
WTXS31 PGTW 281500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- 19.6S6 111.8E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG9356 UNCLAS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 111.8E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 19.8S8 109.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG9356 UNCLAS
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 19.9S9 108.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 20.0S2 106.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG9356 UNCLAS
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 20.1S3 104.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 20.3S5 102.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG9356 UNCLAS
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION 19.6S6 111.3E6
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(TIFFANY) HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AND CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE LAST 4 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS
THE WEST AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST
OF LEARMONTH. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS
THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED.
ADDITIONALLY, TC 15S (TIFFANY) IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE REMIANDER OF THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 22 FEET. SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS WILL BE
ISSUED AT 12 HOURLY INTERVALS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG
290151Z8) AND 291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1).//
BT
#9356

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