Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 4 Sep 1998 12:52:10 -0500

627
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/041800Z SEP 98/051800Z SEP 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/040553 SEP 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10S1 85E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11S2 79E6. A
041517Z8 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA
OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED AT 9.5S4 78.4E9. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS THE MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR AS THE AREA
OF CONVECTION IS ABOUT 46NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
WELL DEFINED AND IS STILL CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
ABATES AND ALLOWS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. SEE
REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WTXS21 PGTW
040630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/PATTERSON/GOODMAN//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.