Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 4 Dec 1998 10:19:15 -0600

933
WTXS31 PGTW 041500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z7 --- NEAR 18.9S8 116.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 116.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 19.7S7 116.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 20.8S0 115.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 21.9S2 115.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 22.9S3 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 24.5S1 113.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1  116.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 041130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
040949Z6 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS AND ANIMATION. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON 041130Z9 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER DISPLAYING AN EYE
FEATURE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER THE
24-HOUR TRACK POSITION. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM=S
DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BE CARRIED SOUTHWARD IN THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE 36-HOUR FORECAST TRACK
POSITION, SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. AFTER THE 36-HOUR TRACK POSITION, THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE MORE WESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE INFLUENCED
BY THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 (DTG 041951Z0),
050300Z8 (DTG 050151Z2), 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8) AND 051500Z1 (DTG
051351Z5).//

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