Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 08:05:24 -0600

879
WTXS33 PGTW 111500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- 15.6S2 115.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 115.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 15.8S4 113.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 16.0S7 112.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 16.3S0 110.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 16.4S1 109.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION 15.6S2 115.3E0
LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST AT
9 KNOTS AND HAS MAINTAINED ITS ITENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 22S CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATION AND
111130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMIANS SIMILAR AS TC22S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENISFY AS IT BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS
14 FEET.  REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 (DTG 120155Z4) AND
121500Z9 (DTG 121355Z7).  REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  20S
(ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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