Subject: Indian-S: 98//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 6 Feb 1998 06:01:57 -0600

974
WTXS21 PGTW 060800 COR
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED 061151Z FEB
98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 060751Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S7 65.9E0 TO
16.2S9 58.0E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30
KNOTS.  METSAT IMAGERY AT 060351Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 64.5E5.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION
ORGANIZING IN BANDS AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
060351Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGER DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION OF 051831Z8
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE A RELATIVE CLOUD-MINIMUM, LIGHT
WIND CORE OF ROUGHLY 90NM RADIUS SURROUNDED BY AN ANNULUS OF
STRONGER WINDS AND DEEP CONVECTION.  UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
CURRENTLY POOR TO FAIR BUT IMPROVING.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS GOOD.
JUSTIFICATION: TO CORRECT MONTH IN SUBJECT LINE.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 070800Z5.//

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