Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gemma) Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 Apr 1998 10:26:29 -0500

963
WTXS31 PGTW 091500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- 15.0S6 71.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 71.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 15.7S3 71.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 16.3S0 71.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 16.7S4 70.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 17.2S0 69.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION 15.2S8 71.8E6.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 09/1317Z INDICATES THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTH. POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS
FROM BOTH KGWC AND PGTW. IN ADDITION, ANIMATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS PULLING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
FORECAST IS FOR AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
CYCLONE BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE. LOCATED MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8) AND 101500Z7 (DTG
101351Z1).//

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