Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 26 Jan 1998 07:38:42 -0600

098
WTXS31 PGTW 261500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- 18.6S5 118.1E1

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG9772 UNCLAS
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 118.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 18.9S8 117.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG9772 UNCLAS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 19.3S3 116.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 19.6S6 115.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG9772 UNCLAS
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 19.9S9 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 20.6S8 111.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG9772 UNCLAS
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION 18.7S6  117.9E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 261130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A CLOUD FILLED
EYE 14 NM IN DIAMETER. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS BASED
UPON AN AVERAGE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND
100 KNOTS. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING SHIP OBSERVATIONS
LOCATED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AT 260600Z4 AND 260900Z7.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TRACKING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A
REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALLOWING FOR SOME
WEAKENING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

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MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6),
270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).//
BT
#9772

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