Subject: Indian-N: 130621z Nov 98//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 13 Nov 1998 00:46:47 -0600

080
WTIO21 PGTW 130630
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
130621Z NOV 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 11.0N2 87.1E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130300Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N3 95.0E4.  THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE AREA
HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IN ADDITION,
130308Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 140630Z4.//

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