Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 25 Jan 1998 08:23:34 -0600

294
WTXS31 PGTW 251500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z0 --- 17.9S7 119.4E5

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     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 119.4E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 18.7S6 117.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 19.2S2 116.0E8

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   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 19.5S5 114.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 19.6S6 113.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG7566 UNCLAS
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION 18.1S0  118.9E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON 251730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE FORWARD SPEED OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY)
SHOULD SLOW AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ITS
SOUTHWEST BY THE 24 HOUR POSITION. BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION, AND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
ORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG7566 UNCLAS
SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT
CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION AND
THEREAFTER, INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AT A MORE STEADY RATE AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG
260151Z5) AND 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (LES) WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.//
BT
#7566

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