Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 07b Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 19 Nov 1998 19:49:01 -0600

942
WTIO31 PGTW 200200
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z2 --- NEAR 13.4N8 89.8E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N8 89.8E5
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 14.4N9 88.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 M NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 15.6N2 86.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 17.0N8 85.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VCDEL WWPPPPZ4 --- 19.0N0 85.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS POP KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEASTISEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.7N1 89.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS FORMED IN THE BAY O BENGAL AND IS
TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION
N
IS BASED UPON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A 191634Z4 SCATTEROMETER PASS. TC 07B IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK TURNS
THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC 07B;S CONVECTION
HAS BEEN SHEARED NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS. WEAKENING EASTERLY SHEAR, HOWEVER, IS NOW
ALLOWING THE FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 07B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY CLIMATOLOGICALLY THROUGHOUT
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
20000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 HGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN
WEST GU 191051Z NOV 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21
PGTW 191100) NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201353Z4), 210300Z6
(DTG 210153Z2), AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5).//

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