Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 13:24:13 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

435
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/141800Z/151800Z OCT 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16N7 66E2
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16N7 62E8. THIS AREA REMAINS WITHIN THE BROAD
MONSOON TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA ACROSS
INDIA INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME ORGANIZATION BUT NO DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STILL EXISTS OVER
THIS AREA. THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE SPORADIC OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15N6 82E0
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16N7 82E0 JUST OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA.
THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS AND IS LOCATED WITHIN THE BROAD MONSOON TROUGHING EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA ACROSS INDIA INTO THE BAY OF
BENGAL. 141200Z8 SYNOPTIC REPORTS SHOW EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR EXISTS OVER THIS AREA. LAND EFFECTS APPEAR TO BE INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: LUNSFORD/JOHNSON/TIRSCHEL//

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