Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 08a Warning Nr 012

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Dec 1998 14:54:31 -0600

266
WTIO31 PGTW 152100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z5 --- NEAR 17.5N3 64.5E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 17.5N3 64.5E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 18.6N5 62.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 19.3N3 60.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 19.8N8 58.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 20.1N3 57.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 20.5N7 55.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.8N6  64.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A 151615Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. THE NORTHERN
COMPONENT OF TC 08A=S TRACK HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
AND IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD. IN
ADDITION, THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO BROADEN AND MAY BE SPLITTING INTO TWO
SEPARATE CIRCULATIONS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A IS FORECAST TO TAKE A
MORE WESTWARD TURN WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH MOVES SOUTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUING
TO BE ADVECTED TO THE NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH A LARGE AMOUNT OF THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST. IN ADDITION, TC
08A HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151800Z5 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG 160157Z0),
160900Z6 (DTG 160757Z6), 161500Z3 (DTG 161357Z3) AND 162100Z0 (DTG
161957Z9).//

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