Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Jun 1998 20:44:07 -0500

405
WTIO31 PGTW 080300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- 17.4N2 067.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N2 067.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 18.9N8 067.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 20.4N6 067.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 21.9N2 067.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 23.3N8 068.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 25.5N2 069.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION 17.8N6   067.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
IN THE EASTERN ARABIAN SEA. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
080000Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. WIND
RADII ARE BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. BY 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES
NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL BRING TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A
INLAND NEAR THE BORDER OF PAKISTAN AND INDIA BETWEEN THE 48 AND
72 HOUR POSITION. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL LOCATED WITHIN THE
RIDGE AXIS, IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AT A STEADY STATE
UNTIL IT NEARS LAND. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY BY THE 72
HOUR POSITION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG
080751Z1), 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4) AND
090300Z2(DTG 090151Z6).//

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