Subject: Indian-N: 102121z Nov 98//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1998 16:33:24 -0600

667
WTIO21 PGTW 102130
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
102121Z NOV 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/092121Z NOV 98//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 092130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N5 65.9E0 TO 11.3N5 61.9E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101647Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N6 65.4E5.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY, 101317Z3 MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL IS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO
AN AREA WITH INCREASED WIND SHEAR, A POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 112130Z8.//

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