Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Dec 1998 13:42:17 -0600

970
WTIO31 PGTW 132100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- NEAR 11.5N7 67.1E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N7 67.1E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 12.3N6 66.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 13.0N4 65.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 13.6N0 64.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 14.1N6 63.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 14.9N4 60.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.7N9   66.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131701Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATION. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS
IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55
KNOTS AND PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTH. THE RIDGE IS WEAK AT PRESENT, DUE TO A PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TAKE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A CONTINUES INTENSIFY AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT WILL REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2),
140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8), 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5) AND 142100Z8 (DTG
141951Z1).//

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