Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 1998 11:26:45 -0600

155
ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/281800Z/291800Z OCT 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14N5 85E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13N4 85E3. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED WHILE THE OVERALL BROAD CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE ELONGATED. 281306Z0 MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED
EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMING IN THE AREA. HOWEVER,
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING ITS
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 11S2 92E1 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. 281424Z1 MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONG IN THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LUNSFORD/MCCULLOCH/TRETHEWEY//

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