Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gemma) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 Apr 1998 21:23:54 -0500

385
WTXS31 PGTW 100300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z1 --- 15.6S2 72.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 72.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 16.1S8 72.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 16.6S3 72.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 17.0S8 71.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 17.3S1 71.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 15.7S3   72.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON 092300Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (KGWC). WE ARE EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, THEN
BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. TC 32S (GEMMA) IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24-HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AFTER THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG
101351Z1) AND 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9)./

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