Subject: Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Gu/181451z Apr 98//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 12:32:28 -0500

355
WTXS22 PGTW 181530
181521Z APR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/181451Z APR 98//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
181500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S8 81.0E9 TO 10.9S0 74.0E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.9S8 80.2E0.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS INDICATES THAT
THE AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED. LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND NUMERICAL WEATHER
MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 191530Z9.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 126.2E1 IN THE TIMOR SEA.//

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