Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 13 Feb 1998 14:24:21 -0600

319
WTXS33 PGTW 132100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 012
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- 17.8S6 105.2E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 105.2E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 17.9S7 102.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 18.0S9 100.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 18.1S0 097.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 18.3S2 095.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 18.7S6 091.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION 17.8S6  104.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE OF RIDGING POSITIONED TO ITS SOUTH.
THIS RIDGING HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS,
LESSENING THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF THE TC=S MOTION. ANIMATED
WATERVAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS RIDGING
BUILDING TO THE WEST OF TC 22S (VICTOR), HINDERING THE OUTFLOW
ON THIS SIDE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8
(DTG 140155Z6), 140900Z4 (DTG 140755Z2), 141500Z1 (DTG
141355Z9) AND 142100Z8 (DTG 141955Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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