Subject: Indian-S: 03 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 17 Feb 1998 04:29:36 -0600

354
WTXS32 PGTW 170900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (BELTANE) WARNING NR 003
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z4 --- 24.9S5 43.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG4738 UNCLAS
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S5 43.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 25.5S2 44.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 26.1S9 45.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 26.7S5 46.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG4738 UNCLAS
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 27.3S2 46.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION 25.1S8   44.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (BELTANE) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 6
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS EXPERIENCING
UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 170530Z
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 23S (BELTANE) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ONCE IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND. CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT UNTIL NEAR THE

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG4738 UNCLAS
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 (DTG 171953Z6) AND 180900Z8
(DTG 180753Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  22S (VICTOR) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#4738

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