Subject: Indian-S: 280253zjan98 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (wtxs22 Pgtw 280300)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 28 Jan 1998 15:32:42 -0600

779
WTXS32 PGTW 282100
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU
280253ZJAN98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 280300)
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 008 REGENERATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG0552 UNCLAS
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z9 --- 14.0S5 129.4E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 129.4E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 13.7S1 128.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 13.5S9 127.3E3

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG0552 UNCLAS
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 13.6S0 126.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 13.8S2 124.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG0552 UNCLAS
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 14.2S7 122.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION 13.9S3 129.2E4
LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS MOVED WESTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN TERRITIORY OF AUSTRALIA AND HAS REGENERATED IN THE

JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY.

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG0552 UNCLAS
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY.
ANIMATION SHOWS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW SURROUNDING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT AS WELL AS NORTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW
ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
CONVECTION IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P AND IS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII. CURRENTLY, TC 14P IS TRACKING

SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MOVEMENT THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INTERACTION WITH LAND
DIMINISHES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 13 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AT 6-HOUR INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER

NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290153Z0), 290900Z0 (DTG
290753Z6), 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3) AND 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9).//
BT
#0552

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