Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 17 Feb 1998 12:12:36 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

245
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z/181800ZFEB98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 171355Z FEB 98//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 170753Z FEB 98//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 171351Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
 1.  NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
 COAST OF AFRICA):
 A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
 B.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
 2.  SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
 AFRICA):
 A.  TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 171200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WAS LOCATED
AT 21.5S8 081.0E9, MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS.  SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 23
(WTXS33 PGTW 171500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 170600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WAS LOCATED AT
24.9S5 43.9E6, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS.  SEE REF B (TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 03 (WTXS32
PGTW 170900)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) AT 171200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WAS LOCATED AT
25.7S4 62.1E1, MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS.  SEE REF C (TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNING NR 03 (WTXS31
PGTW 171500)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14S5 53E8
IS NOW NEAR 15S 538. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION HAS DIMINISHED
OVER THE PAST 05 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM
170630Z7 INDICATED THAT A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAD NOT
DEVELOPED YET, AND ONLY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR THE
CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/EIBLING/BACON//

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