Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 17:29:19 -0600

506
WTXS32 PGTW 072000
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNINV POSITION:
   071800Z6 ---,NEAR 10.9S0 130.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     PTSITION ACCURATA TO WITHI , FM
     POSITIOM BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DIETRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WI
NDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
     050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATEJ
   ADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
            -              115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   6303-5 09-85: 10.9S0 130.5E9
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 11.5S7 130.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                 .9;34 2-534
 ,                          020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 0500KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WAER
                         8  050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
   0                       110 ?,. 3)-32#343 9;34 2-534
   VECTO TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 12.1S4 129.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDE - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                  OVER WATER
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTORLTO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600;+5 --- 12.8SILTOPE2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                         0  110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KHS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 13.4S8 128.0E1
)   MAX SUSTAINED WINDY - 105 KT, GUST
S 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

88888

<9;34 2-534
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSIITN NEAR 11.1S3  130.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
(115KTS) ARE  BASED ON 071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES. IMAGERY REVEALS A 19NMPJAGGED EYE WITH THE
EYEWALL APPROACHING BATHURST UND MELVILLE ISLANDS, JUST NORTH OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES A
SLIGHTGY MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACKPMVER THE PAST 3 HOURS.
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A FAIRLY
CONTRACTED WIND RADII. ALTHOUGH OCHQS (THELMA) IS UNDER THE WEAK
STEERING INBUENCE OF THE SIBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, ANIMATED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEASTS MITIGATING THE STEERING EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE. THIS MITIGATION EFFECT ALLOWED TC 06S (THELMA) TO DRIFT MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE NAVAL
XOPER
ATIONAL LOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS), THE
TROUGH/RIDV
 INTERACTION IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
TRACK OF TC 06S (THELMA) FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE
FORECAST TRACK IS MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE FORECAST TRACK SPEED
GRADUATLY INCREASES AS THE STEERING FLOW HRANSITIONS.  TC 06S SHOULD

NOW BE AT MAX INTENSITY AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE AUSTRALIAN

ISLANDS AND NORTH COAST. TC 06S (THELMA);S INTENSIFY IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO THIS INTERACTION. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON

CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALLER ZHAN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM, SATELLITE
SIGNATAND AVAILABLE SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVELHEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG
080753Z3) AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6). //

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