Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06b Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 20:48:57 -0600

885
WTIO31 PGTW 150300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z6 --- NEAR 16.1N8 83.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N8 83.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 17.0N8 83.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 17.9N7 82.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 18.9N8 82.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 20.0N2 81.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.3N0 83.7E8.  ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED TO 6 KNOTS.  THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
142330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TC 06B REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.
AFTERWARDS, TC 06B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 (DTG 151351Z6)
AND 160300Z0 (DTG 160151Z4).//

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