Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Dec 1998 08:03:00 -0600

095
WTIO31 PGTW 161500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z0 --- NEAR 18.0N9 61.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 18.0N9 61.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 18.3N2 59.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 18.7N6 57.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 19.3N3 56.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 20.0N2 54.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.1N0  61.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A 161100Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE AND A FIX POSITION BASED UPON A 160628Z3
SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON BOTH A
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS AND THE
SCATTEROMETER PASS, WHICH INDICATED 40 KNOTS MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH
TC 08A. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TC 08A IS UNDER
CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LASTEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
SURROUNDED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WHICH ARE PEALING OFF TO THE
WEST. THE LLCC AND THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH WILL
MAKE THE SYSTEM HARDER TO TRACK UNTIL WE REGAIN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS
NOT CHANGED AND TC 08A SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 08A SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER WATER UNTIL MAKING
LANDFALL JUST AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AT THAT TIME, TC
08A WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER LAND. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE 35 KNOT WINDS REFLECTED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161200Z0 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 (DTG 161957Z9),
170300Z1 (DTG 170157Z1), 170900Z7 (DTG 170757Z7) AND 171500Z4 (DTG
171357Z4).//

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