Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 9 Feb 1998 02:55:41 -0600

998
WTXS32 PGTW 090900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z5 --- 27.2S1 43.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S1 43.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 29.5S6 43.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 31.9S3 43.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 34.5S2 44.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 37.0S0 46.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION 27.8S7   43.6E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY WITH A 082010Z1
SCATTEROMETER PASS AND 090509Z3 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 082010Z1 SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH
INDICATED AN AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS AS WELL AS COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD DUE TO
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT
RECURVES TOWARD THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AT THE 48 HOUR
POSITION AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE WATER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. THE NEXT
WARNING WILL BE AT 091500Z (DTG 091353Z1). THE FOLLOWING
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY 12 HOURS. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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