Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 5 Apr 1998 12:36:43 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

262
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/051800Z/061800Z APR 98//RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8S8 72
E9 IN THE
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR 16.5S2 77.1E5. ANIMATED IN
FRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 051200Z8 SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE DEEP CONVE
CTION
FORMING OVER A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS F
AIR TO
GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25
KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 10
06 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOUR
S REMAINS
FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 18 HOURS IN THE SOU
TH INDIAN
OCEAN NEAR 12S3 72E9. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES D
EEP
CONVECTION FORMING IN AN ACTIVE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL O
UTFLOW IS
FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15
KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 10
09 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOUR
S IS POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 24 HOURS NORTHEAST
OF
MADAGASCAR NEAR 11S1 51E6. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 05
1200Z8
SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION FORMING AT THE N
ORTHERN
END OF A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. UPPER-LEVEL OU
TFLOW IS
POOR TO FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
24 HOURS
IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/EIBLING/BOYD//

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