Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Dec 1998 12:33:11 -0600

690
ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/101800Z/111800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/100753Z DEC 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11N2 66E2
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. SYNOPTIC DATA AND ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF INDIA IN THE ARABIAN SEA.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, SHOWS THIS CONVECTION IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 100600Z7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.4S8 126.1E0, MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 95E4
HAS DISSIPATED. ALTHOUGH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS, ANIMATED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THIS ARE IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM:
PARSONS/MCCULLOCH/HERRON/PARKER/BALDINGER/JACKSON/JONES//

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