Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 14 Feb 1998 13:34:55 -0600

853
WTXS33 PGTW 142100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- 18.4S3 100.5E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 100.5E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 18.7S6 98.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 19.2S2 96.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 19.8S8 94.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 20.4S6 92.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 21.9S2 89.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION 18.5S4 99.9E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS AND HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 141730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH
TC22S IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS, TC22S IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS. TC22S IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z4 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWPWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150155Z7),
150900Z5 (DTG 150755Z3), 151500Z2 (DTG 151355Z0) AND 152100Z9
(DTG 151955Z6).//

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