Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 03a Warning Nr 019

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 16:36:13 -0500

853
WTIO31 PGTW 082100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- 20.5N7 68.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N7 68.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 22.6N0 69.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 24.3N9 70.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 26.0N8 73.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION 21.0N3   68.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
BEFORE LANDFALL IS MADE. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL BENDING TOWARDS THE
EAST AS TC03A MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE POINT OF
EXPECTED LANDFALL HAS MOVED SOUTH APPROXIMATELY 90 MILES FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. THIS CHANGE REFLECTS A CHANGE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
HOWEVER THESE CHANGES OCCURRED ONLY RECENTLY. THEY MAY REFLECT A
TEMPORARY, OR PARTIAL, OSCILLATION. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE
REMAINING POSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL FURTHER TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2
(DTG 090151Z6), 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2), 091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9) AND

092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5).//
BT
#2099

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