Subject: Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Gu/090751z Mar 98//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 Mar 1998 02:46:41 -0600

638
WTXS22 PGTW 100800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100753Z MAR 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/090751Z MAR 98//
AMPN/REF A IS INITIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22
PGTW
090800))//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S6 88.4E0 TO
14.6S1 82.0E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA
DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25
KNOTS.  METSAT IMAGERY AT 100530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S7 87.9E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
BECOME COLDER.  ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES POOR
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS GOOD.
3.  THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 110800Z0.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INCORRECT MESSAGE WAS SENT.//

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