Subject: Indian-N: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen West Gu/080029z Oct 98//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 19:47:27 -0500

861
WTIO21 PGTW 090030
090029Z OCT 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/080029Z OCT 98//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW
080030)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 240 NM RADIUS OF 13.0N4 67.4E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081955Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N1 69.8E3.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. 081415Z9 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE AREA IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED
TOWARDS THE WEST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM=S INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES
REF A.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 100030Z4.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.