Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 02s Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1998 10:27:40 -0500

640
WTXS31 PGTW 011500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z4 --- 13.4S8 71.2E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST
 SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 71.2E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG0475 UNCLAS
   020000Z2 --- 15.7S3 69.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 17.4S2 67.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
 WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 17.8S6 65.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
 WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION 14.0S5   70.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S HAS RE-GENERATED IN THE SOUTHERN

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG0475 UNCLAS
INDIAN OCEAN AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
THE PAST 06  HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
ANALYSIS OF 011130Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED UPON A
COMBINATION OF A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30
KNOTS, A PREVIOUS 301734Z8 SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWING
AT LEAST 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION, AND A SHIP REPORT FROM 010000Z1
INDICATING 30 KNOT WINDS (10 MINUTE AVERAGE). A 1
MINUTE AVERAGE WOULD INDICATE 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM, THEREFORE, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS NEARER THE CENTER.
CONVECTION BEGAN TO RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER EARLIER
TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT HAS REMAINED SHEARED TO THE SOUTH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES TO
ITS SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR
PERIOD. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FORECASTED TO BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SYSTEM, AND LOWER LEVEL

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG0475 UNCLAS
FLOW FROM THE EAST, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
EVEN MORE AND SHOULD SHEAR OFF THE REMAINING
CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN
TURNING TOWARDS THE WEST UNDERNEATH LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THEN
DISSIPATE BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1) AND 021500Z8 (DTG
021353Z4).//
BT
#0475

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