Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 8 Dec 1998 02:09:33 -0600

090
WTXS32 PGTW 080900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 11.6S8 129.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 129.5E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 12.2S5 128.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 12.7S0 127.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 13.0S4 126.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 13.3S7 125.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9  129.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A SMALL CIRCULAR EYE
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ALONG THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 080530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS BELIEVED TO HAVE PEAKED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN ONLY SLOWLY. SYNOPTIC DATA AS WELL AS THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONTRACTED WIND RADII. THE
STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAKLY DOMINATED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6) AND 090900Z8 (DTG
090753Z4).//

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