Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 08:52:28 -0500

007
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- 12.0S3 93.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 93.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 13.1S5 95.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 14.2S7 96.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.3S9 97.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.6S3 98.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 12.3S6   94.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071143Z6 MICROWAVE IMAGER
PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON 070600Z3 SURFACE
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 25 KNOT (INTERPOLATED FROM TEN-MINUTE
AVERAGES) WINDS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE SYSTEM=S CENTER. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD REMAIN
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S IS BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AND THE FORECASTED MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG
080155Z9) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081355Z2).//

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