Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1998 06:58:55 -0600

554
WTXS21 PGTW 141100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 141051Z DEC 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7S4 155.6E7 TO 24.5S1 158.8E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
140830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4
155.5E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE CORAL SEA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS
EXIST, THE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 19S0 156E2 IS BECOMING
DOMINANT. ADDITIONALLY, A 140745Z1 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDICATES A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHEAR CHARTS, HOWEVER,
SUGGEST THIS AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 151100Z8.//

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