Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (billy) Warning Nr 010

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 4 Dec 1998 20:12:14 -0600

084
WTXS31 PGTW 050300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z5 --- NEAR 19.4S4 116.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 19.4S4 116.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 20.2S4 116.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 20.9S1 116.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 21.7S0 115.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 22.5S9 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 116.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 3 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 042330Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE, AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS AS WELL AS
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT TC 05S (BILLY) IS
UNDERGOING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH TC
05S (BILLY) CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
ITS SOUTHEAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CHANGE ITS
ORIENTATION TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE SOUTHWARDLY TRACK. DUE TO THE HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, TC 05S (BILLY) SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES LANDFALL AND SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 (DTG 050751Z8), 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5),
052100Z8 (DTG 051951Z1) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3).//

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