Subject: Indian-N: 181051z Nov 98//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 1998 06:05:57 -0600

947
WTIO21 PGTW 181100 COR
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
181051Z NOV 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/180121Z NOV 98//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW
180130)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N4 95.8E2 TO 13.9N3 87.9E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N6 94.7E0.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), NR
10.5N6 94.7E0, IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ORIGINAL POSITION NR 13.1N5
93.4E6. THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION HAS SHEARED AWAY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM THE LLCC. AS THE LLCC MOVES OVER THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS
AND INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL, IT WILL ENTER INTO AN AREA FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 191100Z2.
5. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUANCE: TO RELOCATE THE LLCC IN PARAGRAPH
3.//

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