Subject: Indian-N: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 May 1998 05:01:08 -0500

981
WTIO21 PGTW 170730
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 170721Z MAY 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N1 83.4E5 TO 17.1N9 86.0E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 170530Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N6 84.0E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE BAY OF BENGAL HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD.
CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPIRAL INFLOW PATTERN BEGINNING TO DEVELO
P
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 180730Z9.//

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