Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06b Warning Nr 001a Amended

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 02:22:57 -0600

608
WTIO31 PGTW 140900 AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 001A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z1 --- NEAR 14.2N7 85.7E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N7 85.7E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 16.0N7 84.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 17.6N4 83.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 18.9N8 83.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 19.8N8 83.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.7N2 85.4E7. THIS WARNING IS AMENDED
BASED ON INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK CHANGES. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B HAS BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT 13 KNOTS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST.  THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 140530Z3 VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND 140256Z8 MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. BASED
ON RECENT DATA, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND APPROACH
THE COAST OF INDIA BY THE 36 HOUR PERIOD.  ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER WATER THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST.
AFTERWARDS, INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z1 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5) AND 150300Z9
(DTG 150151Z3).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.