Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Dec 1998 13:39:42 -0600

599
WTXS32 PGTW 122100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 18.6S5 123.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 123.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 19.4S4 123.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 20.1S3 122.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 20.6S8 121.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 21.5S8 120.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7  123.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
121730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 121730Z4 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(THELMA) HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESERT, THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOIST
INFLOW FROM THE COAST, WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO TEMPORARILY
INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INITIALLY, AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, IN
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND
STEADY ORGANIZED STRUCTURE, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS
FORECAST TO ONLY WEAKEN TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT CLOUD SIGNATURE. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9) AND 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2).//

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