Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gemma) Warning Nr 013

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Apr 1998 20:47:35 -0500

046
WTXS31 PGTW 130300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- 14.9S4 078.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 01 KT
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 078.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 15.1S7 078.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 15.5S1 078.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 16.3S0 078.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 17.3S1 078.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION 15.0S6  078.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SUBJECT TO UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE
CENTER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 122330Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
121406Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
FEATURES REMAIN WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED IN SPITE OF THE
SHEARING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. AFTER 12 HOURS, IT IS EXPECTED THAT
CONTINUED SHEARING CONDITIONS WILL INDUCE AN INCREASED STEERING
INFLUENCE BY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. SYNOPTIC RIDGING LOCATED
TO THE SYSTEM=S SOUTH WOULD ALLOW FOR A WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4) AND 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2).

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