Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 2 Dec 1998 11:59:30 -0600

859
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z DEC 98/031800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/020751Z DEC 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION OFF THE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COAST
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14S5 120E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2
119.2E3 AND HAS BECOME THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (REF A). SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1000MB. SATELLITE
INFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS THIS CIRCULATION DEVELOPED ALONG THE
TAILEND OF A SHEARLINE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS
IT IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 021026Z1
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDICATED A CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTION WRAPPING ABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER. 200MB ANALYSIS
AND UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD. SEE REF A (WTXS21 020800Z) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
    (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7S7 87E5 IS
NOW NEAR 7.5S2 89.0E7. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES
THE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS (021200Z5) AND PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATE
A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
200MB ANALYSIS AND UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS
INDICATE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1008MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM:
PARSONS/BOYER/MCCULLOCH/PARKER/HERRON/EIBLING/JONES/BALDINGER/
JACKSON//

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