Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 6 Dec 1998 13:51:23 -0600

974
WTXS32 PGTW 062100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 9.4S3 130.8E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 130.8E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 9.4S3 130.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 9.5S4 130.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 9.7S6 129.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 10.0S1 128.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 9.4S3 130.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND CURRENT INTENSITY (55KTS) ARE
BASED ON 061730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND
IS BEGINNING TO CONTRACT. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATION OF INCREASING
INTENSITY. AS IT CONTINUES TO CONTRACT AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THE
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SHOULD BECOME EASIER
TO LOCATE. UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN DIVERGENCE CHARTS AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS INCREASED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THEY ALSO
INDICATE MINIMAL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ABOVE THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO ITS SOUTH. AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, TC 06S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2) AND 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5).

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