Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 14 Mar 1998 21:17:37 -0600

840
WTXS32 PGTW 150300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG7582 UNCLAS
   150000Z6 --- 21.3S6 79.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 79.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 21.6S9 79.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG7582 UNCLAS
   160000Z7 --- 22.0S4 79.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 22.7S1 78.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 23.8S3 78.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION 21.4S7 79.8E4.

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG7582 UNCLAS
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
INTERPOLATION BETWEEN 142330Z3 AND 142333Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WARNING POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE USING
INFRARED IMAGERY WHILE THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 142330Z3 SATELLITE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) HAS BEEN
DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM RIDGING LOCATED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AT PRESENT, THE SYSTEM IS BEING
SHEARED VERTICALLY WITH IT'S CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AFTER
THE 24 HOUR POSITION, TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) SHOULD BEGIN
TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHOULD TRACK MORE
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ELSIE) SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES TO BE
VERTICALLY SHEARED AND MOVE INTO COLDER SEA SURFACE

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG7582 UNCLAS
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8) AND
160300Z0 (DTG 160153Z6).//
BT
#7582

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