Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 20 Dec 1998 11:38:12 -0600

999
ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/201800Z/211800Z DEC 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7N7 73E0 HAS
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 100E1
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S1 98E7. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS, BUT HAS VARIED IN INTENSITY. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS
RETARDING INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION, THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH THE CONVECTION. INDEED, THE
201200Z5 SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH IS BENEATH THE
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (2) THERE ARE NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/THOMAS/MORRIS/GOODMAN/BROOKS//
DUPE ALL

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