Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 02s Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 1 Oct 1998 21:37:28 -0500

604
WTXS31 PGTW 020300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z2 --- 15.0S6 70.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 70.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 16.1S8 69.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 17.5S3 69.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 19.1S1 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION 15.3S9   70.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
020033Z8 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON 020033Z8 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S HAS
MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TRACK POSITION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM=S DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF ITS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 02S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 36-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS
12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 (DTG 021353Z4) AND 030300Z6 (DTG
030153Z2).//

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