Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 02:15:25 -0500

290
ABIO10 PGTW 180700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/180700Z/181800Z APR 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1
130E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11S2 130E4. THIS CONVECTION HAS
LOST ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER BUT AN 180137Z0 SCATTEROMETER PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE. ALTHOUGH
LITTLE SHEAR IS PRESENT, UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO HAVE
DECREASED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4
59E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18S9 64E0. THIS AREA HAS BECOME ALMOST
COMPLETELY SHEARED OF DEEP CONVECTION BY A PASSING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
84E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S1 82E0. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO COOLED. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BOYER/JOHNSON/BOYD//

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