Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1998 08:43:14 -0600

150
WTXS31 PGTW 101500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z4 --- NEAR 16.3S0 92.8E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 92.8E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 17.6S4 91.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 19.0S0 91.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 20.5S7 91.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 22.3S7 91.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 92.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALISON) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
8 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATION. THE
TRACK WAS CONFIRMED BY 100343Z1 SCATTEROMETRY DATA. TC 04S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THROUGH THE 12-HOUR PERIOD, TC 04S IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BY THE 36-HOUR POINT, THE PASSING
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SOUTHWARD TURN IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 16
FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9) AND 111500Z8 (DTG
111351Z2).

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.