Subject: Indian-S:

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 13 Apr 1998 09:17:41 -0500

444
WTXS31 PGTW 131500

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1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z7 --- 14.6S1 77.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 77.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 14.6S1 77.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS

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    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 14.8S3 78.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 15.4S0 78.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 16.1S8 78.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE

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    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION 14.6S1   77.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 131130Z9
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S
(GEMMA) CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER WEAK STEERING
FLOW, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGHOUT THE 12 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AFTER THAT TIME, TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD
TRACK AS THE 700 MB AND 850 MB RIDGE REBUILDS SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. AFTER THE 36 HOUR POSITION, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S'S (GEMMA) CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY
FROM ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN AREA OF WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2) AND
141500Z1 (DTG 141351Z5).//

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