Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 3 Dec 1998 11:30:34 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

551
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/031800Z/041800Z DEC 98//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/031351Z DEC 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 031200Z TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.4S2 117.6E5, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 031500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2S0
118.7E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S2 117.6E5 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA 2.A.(1).
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9 88E6 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 9S9 87E5. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STEADY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 10S1 135E9 IN THE
ARAFURA SEA. THIS BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR
24 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS POOR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
     (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PATTERSON/TRETHEWEY//

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