Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 23s Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 16 Feb 1998 13:43:21 -0600

108
WTXS32 PGTW 162100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 002
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- 24.4S0 42.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S0 42.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 25.6S3 43.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 26.7S5 44.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 27.8S7 45.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 28.8S8 46.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION 24.7S3 42.7E3
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.  THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 161801Z7 SATELLITE
ANALYSIS FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTRAL.  ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC23S
HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY,
THAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING MODERATE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE WEST BASED ON THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. TC23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN
AREA FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  AFTERWARDS, TC23S IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS AN AREA WITH INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 15
FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3) AND 172100Z1
(DTG 171953Z6).  REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  22S (VICTOR)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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