Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 07b Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 20 Nov 1998 15:31:21 -0600

379
WTIO31 PGTW 201500
IMMEDIATE DEIVERREQ AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z5 --- NEAR 15.7N3 87.5E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N3 87.5E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 17.5N3 86.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 19.8N8 86.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 21.6N9 86.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 22.9N3 87.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.2N9 87.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS
FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 201130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE PREVIOUSLY ACCELERATED
FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WAS SHORT LIVED AS IT HAS SLOWED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED REGARDING THE
SYSTEM=S OVERALL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT,
HOWEVER, REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE STEERING MECHANISMS
FOR THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH TO ITS WEST. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AND THEN
BECOME NORTHWARD AFTER THE 12-HOUR PERIOD. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER THE 24-HOUR POINT AND THEN TC 07B IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. LAND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED
TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z6 (DTG 210153Z2) AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5).//

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