Subject: Indian-S:

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 6 Mar 1998 10:39:20 -0600

667
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS

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SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (DONALINE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z9 --- 17.3S1 067.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 067.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 18.9S8 068.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---

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   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 20.8S0 070.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 23.1S6 072.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 25.9S6 073.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE

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    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION 17.7S5   067.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (DONALINE) HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN
INDIAN OCEAN AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061101Z9
VISUAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM KGWC AND 060941Z0
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM FJDG. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 26S (DONALINE) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN TAKE A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE 48 HOUR POSITION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 26S (DONALINE) SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ITS TRACK WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SURFACE
RIDGING THROUGH THE 24 TO 48 HOUR POSITIONS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 1200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7).//

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BT
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