Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cycwmnes In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 5 Dec 1998 14:27:16 -0600

710
WTXS31 PGTW 052000
1. ROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNING NR 013
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCWMNES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONWAMINKOE AVERAGE
   WARNINGPOSITIONC
   PTQIPPZ4 --- NEAR 20.3S5 115.0E79
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURWTE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTAUKT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM UTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 115.0E7
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 20.8S0 114.8EWR
R   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUS
TS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            0-0 NM ELSEWHEREO
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 21.3S6 114.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WIN - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 22.0S4 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LANF
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 22.9S3 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
D
   DISWIQWNG AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
   72 HRS,8VALID AT:
+   08180;Z7 --- 24.8S4 114.3-9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - #20 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6  115.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) HAS DSIFTED SOUTHWARD ATHPBKNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND CURRENTINTENSITY
(45KTS) ARE BASED ON 051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE ANALYSIS
TECHNIQUES AND A MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS (051253Z6).   ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOKRS. THE MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED. THIS EXPOSURE WOULD INDICATE
AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.  SYNOPTIC W ND REPORTS FROM
B FCVKS ISLANDNAUSTRALIA (WMO 94304) OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS IS QUASI-STATIONARY. UW CIMSS WINDSHEAR
PRODUCTS ANE WMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE TC 05S (BILLY) IS
MOVING INTO AN AREA OFMODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. -,8.-589, -)-9
REVEALS SEVERAL OUTFLODUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS QNTERSECTING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S (BILLY) IS FORECASTO
CONTPNUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW-MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY)
SHOULD ALSO COUNTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT AP49-:#3- 5#3 ,945#25 :9--5
OF AUSTRALIA DUE TO THE INCREASED WINDSHEAR ENVIRONONT. AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL, TC 05S (BILLY) SHOULD DISSIPATE EVEN MORE RAPIDLY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4

IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 JBR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3), 060900Z5 (DTG

060751Z9), 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6) AND 062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  06S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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