Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 07b Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 20 Nov 1998 09:09:33 -0600

889
WTIO31 PGTW 201500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSULCALCUTTA AND AMAMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 003
   01
CTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
 0 201200Z5 --- NEAR 15.7N3 87.5E0
     MOVEMNT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITIOM ACCQRATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASD ON CENTER LOCATED BY S
TELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF KIAVKT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICI
CLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                         ) 090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPET POSIT: 15.7N3 87.5E0
   FO
ECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 17.5N3 86.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WIN
S - 050 NM EST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
WP  RADIUS OF035 KT WPND
S - 155 NM EAST BICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 19.8N8 86.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WAR
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUA035 KT WINDS - 155 NMPN SEMICPRCLE
                  0                OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 3+ HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 21.6N9 86.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE OVAR WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
              ,                    OVER WATER
                            070 NVLELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 22.9N3 87.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF WPET KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.2N9 87.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE NORTHWES AT 10 KNOTS
FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 211130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE PREVIOUSLY ACCELERATED
FORWARD MOTIOM OF THE SYSTEM WAS SHORT LIVED AS IT HAS SLOWED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. LIOTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED REGARDING THE
SYSTEM;S OVERALL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT,
HOWEVER, REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THESTEERING MECHANISMS
FOR THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH TO ITS WEST. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AND THEN
BECOME NORTHWARD AFTER THKQINHOUR PEVIOD. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER THE 24-HOUR POINT AND THEN TC 07B IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. LAND EFFECT  ARE EXPECTED
TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
WWIM31 PGFW FO
 ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARN NGS AT
210300Z6 (OG 210153Z2) AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5).//

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