Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 03s Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 21:16:16 -0500

450
WTXS31 PGTW 080300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- 14.0S5 95.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 95.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 16.1S8 96.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 18.4S3 98.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 20.8S0 100.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 23.5S0 102.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION 14.5S0 95.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 072330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TC 03S HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY THE STEERING FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TC 03S IS
EXPERIENCING SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
MODIFY TC 03S WITH BOTH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND ACCELERATED MOTION, SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENING TC
03S. THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER INCREASINGLY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S AS WELL. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 12
FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081355Z2)
AND 090300Z2 (DTG 090155Z0).//

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