Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 4 Oct 1998 03:30:42 -0500

630
ABIO10 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/040900Z/041800Z OCT 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 11N2 98E7 JUST
OFFSHORE IN THE ANDAMAN SEA. THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WAS INDICATED BY 031603Z3 SCATTEROMETER DATA AND IS LOCATED WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THE AREA ITSELF HAS MAINTAINED NO PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOR
THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR RE-ISSUE: ADDED FAIR AREA IN PARA 1.B.1.
FORECAST TEAM: LUNSFORD/JOHNSON/TIRSCHEL//

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