Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 2 Dec 1998 20:34:40 -0600

726
WTXS31 PGTW 030300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z3 --- NEAR 17.2S0 118.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 118.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 18.5S4 117.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 19.8S8 116.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 21.4S7 116.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 23.2S7 116.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 26.1S9 119.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3  118.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S HAS CONTINUED TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AT 8 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 022330Z0 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A SUPPORTING
SHIP REPORT. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE
24 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 05S BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 05S IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. AS TC 05S CONTINUES ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNTIL MAKING
LANDFALL PRIOR TO THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 (DTG
030751Z6), 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3), 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9) AND
040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1).//

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