Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 14 Feb 1998 20:43:00 -0600

682
WTXS33 PGTW 150300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z6 --- 19.6S6 096.2E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 096.2E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 20.5S7 092.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 21.1S4 089.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 21.6S9 087.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 21.8S1 085.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION 19.8S8   095.3E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS. THIS REPRESENTS A RELOCATION FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING POSITION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS, REVEALING AN
EXTREMELY WELL-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) IS FORECAST TO DECELERATE AS IT CONTINUES
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT DISSIPATES OVER
WATER BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. HOWEVER, THE
CONCENTRATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER
MAY RESULT IN REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION, PROLONGING THE
TROPICAL NATURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2
(DTG 151355Z0) AND 160300Z0 (DTG 160155Z8).//

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