Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1998 14:30:00 -0600

593
WTIO31 PGTW 142000
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- NEAR 15.3N9 66.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTR
W-- MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORIR RI               PIP NM EL
SEWHERE
   REPEAT POSKON9 66.5E7
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 17.5N3 65.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 -KCSJRA 64.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
H
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 19.8N8 62.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RA
L050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NOR
RCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DOTX QP KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 20.1N3 60.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS GK
I RADIUS OF 050 KT WI 4-4
-3-- RADIUS OF 035 KT WIVIPBCE
 VWCIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 20.5N7 57.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.8N4   66.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141630Z5
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLON08A HAS BEE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE SYSTEM

IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST=
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BEGINS TO
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL PRIOR TO THE 72-HOUR TRACK POSITION.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3),
150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9), 151500Z2 (DTG 151351Z6) AND 152100Z9 (DTG
151951Z2).//

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