Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 03a Warning Nr 013

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Jun 1998 03:02:54 -0500

291
WTIO31 PGTW 070900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z3 --- 14.9N4 067.8E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N4 067.8E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 16.3N0 067.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 17.8N6 066.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 19.3N3 066.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 20.8N0 067.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 23.8N8 068.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION 15.2N8   067.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
IN THE ARABIAN SEA. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 070416Z8
MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I). THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A SATELLITE DERVIED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
CI4.5 (77 KNOTS). TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST FOR TC 03A IS FOR IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THEN SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR DIMINISHES. WIND RADII IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3
IS 19 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7), 072100Z0
(DTG 071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5) AND 080900Z7 (DTG
080751Z1).//

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