Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 6 Oct 1998 12:56:59 -0500

764
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/061800Z/071800Z OCT 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST/060759Z OCT 98//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR 13N4 072E9. THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT FOR 18 HOURS. SURFACE SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LARGE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OFF THE WEST
COAST OF INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS AND SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING IS EVIDENT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE THE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ANIMATED IMAGERY
SUGGESTS SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OCCURRING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR 12N3 086E4. THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR 24 HOURS. SURFACE SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LARGE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OFF THE EAST
COAST OF INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN NEAR 11S2 091E0. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (REF A (WTXS 21 PGTW 060800)). ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF
SUMATRA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. A 061147Z9 MICROWAVE IMAGER
PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PATLA/HATFIELD/HALL//

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