Subject: Indian-S: 01 Tive Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 3 Dec 1998 03:09:21 -0600

812
WTXS31 PGTW 030900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05YYWARNING NR 003
   01 TIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 17.0S8 118.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
W   PRESENT WIND D
ISTRIBUTION:,
2   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RHFGGI035 KT WINDSH- 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAOHMLPA QUMPS8#118.MM
L PAAV
H
   FORECASTS:
   120#:-, CKBMAAV   PEQIPPZ2 --- 16.9S6 117.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
               8            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 17.2S0 115.9E6
92   MAX SUSTAINZDQINDS - 040 KT, GUST
S 050 KT
   RADIUS OF PET KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECT36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
   36 HRS, VA
ID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 18.0S9 114.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 19.2S2 113.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS
 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 22.0S4 111.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035#KT
   DISSIPATINGPA SIL IFICANT TROPICA :6:)9,3 9;34 2-534
REMARKS:
030900ZGW POSITITN NEAR 17.0S8  117.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S HAS BEGUN TRACKING WESTWARD AOPY KNOTS DURING
OHE PASTPUVHOURS. THLWARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON AN ERLIER
030038:(?.8:492-;3 8.-<34 0--- -,$ 030530Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENYQTQ IS BHDOLUPM NLE CURRENT
INTENSITYPESTIMCOLOF 35 KNOTS AND PREVIOUS SUPPORTING SHIP
REPORTS. IATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN THAT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WEAKENED STEERING FLOW AND THE SYSTEM;S ASYMMETRIC
VSTRUCTURE MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FORTHE SUDDEN TRACK CHANGE AND SLOWER
MOVEMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST,
CAUSING THE AFOCMENTIONED WZM
BOEERING FLO. TROPICAL CYCLONE
05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS UNTIL RETURNING TO A MORE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, RESULTING IN IBRE SOUTHWESTWARD TRN ER THE 24 HOURS
FORECASTLOSITION. TROPICAL CYCLONEI05S  EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
UNDERGMIINCREASING SHEAR AS THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW REINSTATES.
5#343>94+, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05LIS FORECAST TO STCENTHEN ONLY
BIGHTLYPT
HROUGHOUT THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.THEN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO DWSSIPATE OVY WATER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT ATPPEPYPPZ IS 14
FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3), 032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9),
040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1) AND 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7).//

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