Subject: Indian-N: And Amembassy New Delhi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 May 1998 22:48:25 -0500

591
WTIO31 PGTW 190300 COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA, AMEMBASSY DHAKA,
AND AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z0 --- 19.1N1 90.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N1 90.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 21.0N3 90.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 22.5N9 91.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 24.0N6 91.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 25.6N3 91.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 19.6N6   90.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
182330Z7 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 182330Z7 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL STEERING
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.  THIS
STEERING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION.  BY THE 36 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  JUSTIFICATION: TO CORRECT STORM
DIRECTION.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 14
FEET.  REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3),
191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0), 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6) AND 200300Z5
(DTG 200151Z9).//

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