Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 14 Feb 1998 08:57:13 -0600

092
WTXS33 PGTW 141500 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 015A CORRECTED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z8 --- 18.1S0 101.6E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 101.6E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 18.5S4 99.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 18.9S8 96.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 19.5S5 94.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 20.1S3 92.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 21.5S8 89.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION 18.2S1 101.0E2
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(VICTOR) CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST AT 12 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 141130Z0 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC22S HAS
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FAIR OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.
HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS FROM THE NAVY=S
GLOBAL PREDICTION SYSTEM INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 12
HOUR PERIOD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS
25 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG 141955Z5), 150300Z9
(DTG 150155Z7), 150900Z5 (DTG 150755Z3) AND 151500Z2 (DTG
151355Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) FINAL
WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. JUSTIFICATION
FOR COR: CORRECTED WARNING NUMBER.//

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