Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 08a Warning Nr 014

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Dec 1998 02:15:12 -0600

418
WTIO31 PGTW 160900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 18.0N9 63.6E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N9 63.6E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 18.4N3 62.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 18.9N8 60.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 19.4N4 58.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 19.7N7 55.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.1N0   63.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A 160500Z2
VISIBLE SATELLITE (METEOSAT) IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL DECREASE OF WINDS IN A RAPID SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS TC 08A HAS UNDERGONE CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
IS NOW DISORGANIZED, IT SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS SHEARED SYSTEM IS BASED ON THE LOWER LEVEL
STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH INFLUENCING A
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 08A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
EXPERIENCES CONDSIDERABLE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. TC 08A SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION.
THIS IS DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161500Z3 (DTG 161357Z3), 162100Z0 (DTG 161957Z9), 170300Z1 (DTG
170157Z1) AND 170900Z7 (DTG 170757Z7).//

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