Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 08a Warning Nr 016

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Dec 1998 14:14:52 -0600

322
WTIO31 PGTW 162000
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- NEAR 18.0N9 59.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 18.0N9 59.9E3
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 18.6N5 57.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 19.3N3 55.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 20.0N2 54.4E3
   MAB SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.2N1 59.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS AND 35 KNOTS SHIP
OBSERVATIONS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS TC 08A IS

TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK

PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED AND TC 08A SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER WATER

UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL JUST AFTER THE 12 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AT
THAT TIME, TC 08A WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER LAND. THE WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE 35 KNOT WINDS REFLECTED IN AN
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z6 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170157Z1), 170900Z7 (DTG

170757Z7), 171500Z4 (DTG 171357Z4) AND 172100Z1 (DTG 171957Z0).//

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