Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 13 Feb 1998 00:21:08 -0600

673
WTXS21 PGTW 130600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 130553Z FEB 98//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 275 NM RADIUS OF 17.7S5 43.3E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 130300Z
INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.5S3 43.0E7.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED NEAR
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 12 TO
14 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA FROM WMO NUMBERS 61972, 61970, 67117 AND
67037 INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND HAS 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 120721Z3 INDICATED STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND 10 TO 15 KNOT CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW NORTH OF IT. THIS
SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC AND IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 140600Z1.//

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