Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 12 Feb 1998 02:54:07 -0600

755
WTXS33 PGTW 120900 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 006A COR
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z9 --- 14.8S3 112.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 112.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 14.7S2 110.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 14.7S2 109.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 14.8S3 107.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 14.9S4 105.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 15.0S6 101.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION 14.8S3  112.1E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED TO 08 KNOTS A
ND
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION I
S BASED
UPON 120532Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM KGWC ANALYSTS. THE WARNI
NG
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KN
OTS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION TRACK FOR THE
FORECAST
PERIOD AS RIDGING TO THE SOUTH IS STEERING THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLO
NE 22S
(VICTOR) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD
REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ALONG THE FORECASTED
TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT
121500Z0 (DTG 121355Z7), 122100Z6 (DTG 121955Z3), 130300Z7 (DTG 13015
5Z5)
AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130755Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE)
WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION: TO CHANGE NEXT W
ARNING
TIMES.//

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