Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 1998 03:09:32 -0600

998
WTIO31 PGTW 140900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z1 --- NEAR 13.2N6 66.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N6 66.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 14.5N0 65.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   15060 +6KJJ
+R:SM 64.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 16.7N4 63.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 17.4N2 61.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 18.0N9 57.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.5N9   66.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
140500Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPROVE
IN ORGANIZATION. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OR
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS FORM THREE PRIMARY
ENVELOPES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (GFDE, NOGAPS AND NOGAPS BASED
BAMS) INDICATE THE EVENTUAL WESTWARD TRACK THAT THE FORECASTED TRACK
REFLECTS. ALTHOUGH NOGAPS AND THE BAMS FOLLOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
PATH AFTER 36 HOURS. THE STATISTICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL AIDS ARE
UNEVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN A NORTHWARD TRACK AND A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK,
WITH THE MAJORITY FOCUSING ON THE NORTHWARD OPTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1
(DTG 141351Z5), 142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1), 150300Z9 (DTG 150151Z3) AND
150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9).//

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