Subject: Indian-N:

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 14:51:42 -0500

526
WTIO31 PGTW 171500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A WARNING NR 004

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG7989 UNCLAS
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z1 --- 21.1N4 69.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N4 69.7E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 21.9N2 70.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG7989 UNCLAS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 22.7N1 71.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 23.2N7 72.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 23.5N0 73.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION 21.3N6   69.8E3.

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG7989 UNCLAS
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 4 KNOTS
FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 170730Z8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONTINUITY WITH
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A REMAINS A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LITTLE CONVECTION. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED FROM THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 05A IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.  TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0) AND 181500Z5 (DTG 181355Z3).//
BT
#7989

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