Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 27 Sep 1998 14:32:09 -0500

399
ABIO10 PGTW 271800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN
OCEAN/271800Z/281800Z SEP 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A 5 P0L AYCLGFE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR
15N6 81E9. A MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDICATED AN AREA
OF STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL. SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA ARE LOW WITH VALUES
NEAR 1004 MB, AND 24 HOUR PRESSURE DROPS OF ABOUT 1MB.
HOWEVER, ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION THAT IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1001MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
 (1) THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR
5S5 84E2. A MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS AT 271321Z6
INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION TOWARDS THE CENTER.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN, WATER VAPOR WIND DATA AND SATELLITE
ANIMATION ALL INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ACROSS THIS REGION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/PATTERSON/GOODMAN//

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