Subject: Indian-N: And Amembassy New Delhi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 May 1998 10:00:29 -0500

114
WTIO31 PGTW 181500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA, AMEMBASSY DHAKA
AND AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z2 --- 17.0N8 89.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N8 89.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 18.7N6 90.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 20.1N3 90.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 21.2N5 90.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 22.0N4 91.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 23.6N1 91.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION 17.4N2   89.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 181130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B
IS ON THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS THE PREDOMINANT
STEERING FLOW. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE SYSTEM=S TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. BY THE 72
HOUR POINT, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR AT UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS. THEREFORE,
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z2 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181951Z5),
190300Z3 (DTG 190151Z7), 190900Z9 (DTG 190751Z3) AND 191500Z6
(DTG 191351Z0).//

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