Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 27 Jan 1998 07:38:42 -0600

310
WTXS31 PGTW 271500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z2 --- 19.3S3 115.8E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 115.8E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 19.9S9 114.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 20.3S5 112.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 20.5S7 110.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 20.5S7 109.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 20.5S7 107.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION 19.5S5 115.3E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED SLIGHTLY TO
9 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271200Z2 RADAR OBSERVATION FROM DAMPIER
(WMO 94308). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE
DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY OF 127 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS SIMILAR AS TC 15S (TIFFANY) IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE WEST AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 24
HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS AN AREA WITH INCREASING WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 280300Z3 (DTG
280151Z7), 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3) AND 281500Z6 (DTG
281351Z0).//

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