Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southwest Pacific

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 27 Jan 1998 02:38:46 -0600

546
WTXS31 PGTW 270900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- 19.0S0 116.9E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG3671 UNCLAS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 116.9E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 19.5S5 116.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG3671 UNCLAS
   280600Z6 --- 19.9S9 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 20.2S4 113.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG3671 UNCLAS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 20.5S7 112.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 20.6S8 109.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG3671 UNCLAS
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION 19.1S1  116.7E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS IN A REGION OF WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING.  THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 270530Z6 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM DAMPIER (WMO
NUMBER 94308).  THIS SYSTEM HAS A 20 NM WELL-DEFINED EYE AND
GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
FORECAST REASONING.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY) IS
FORECAST TO PEAK IN INTENSITY BY THE 24 HOUR POINT THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MAJORITY
OF OUR STATISTICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST AIDS SUGGEST
THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD RECURVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVE INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW.  THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 23 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS
AT 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 280300Z3
(DTG 280151Z7) AND 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3).//

PAGE 06 RUHPSGG3671 UNCLAS
BT
#3671

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.