Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 26 Dec 1998 08:12:25 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 261500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CATHY) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- NEAR 16.6S3 94.6E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 94.6E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 16.6S3 93.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 16.6S3 91.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 16.6S3 90.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 16.5S2 88.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 94.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CATHY) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF
261130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF CI 2.5 AND 3.0
(35 AND 45 KNOTS) AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER, VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
ACROSS THE SYSTEM CENTER AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 48
HOURS DUE TO LOWER TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM RIDGING TO ITS
SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).//

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