Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 18 Apr 1998 23:16:49 -0500

369
WTXS31 PGTW 190300 COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z0 --- 10.2S3 74.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S3 74.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 10.4S5 73.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 10.7S8 71.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 11.2S4 69.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 11.8S0 67.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 13.4S8 64.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 10.2S3   74.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S HAS FORMED AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN INDICAN OCEAN. THE WARNING
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIME OF CI2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 34S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-HOURS THEN BEGIN
A TURN TOWEARD THE WEST-SOUTWEST. INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
SLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900 (DGT 190751Z3), 191500Z6 (DTG
191351Z0), 192100Z3 (DTG191951Z1), AND 200300Z5 (DTG
200151Z9). THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 181521Z APR 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 181530) REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 35S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:  TO CORRECT FORECAST TRACK.//

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