Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 9 Feb 1998 14:37:30 -0600

550
WTXS31 PGTW 092100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- 14.4S9 60.7E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 60.7E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 14.8S3 60.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 15.2S8 59.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 15.5S1 58.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 15.8S4 58.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 16.2S9 57.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION 14.5S0  60.5E1
TROPICAL CYLONE 20S (ANACELLE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY, ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE CHANCE SCENERIO OF SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT DUE TO THE SYSTEM REMAINING IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
WEAKENESS CONTINUES. TC 20S (ANACELLE) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARNING POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100751Z4) AND 102100Z4 (DTG
101951Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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