Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Soarnhemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Dec 1998 13:45:23 -0600

680
WTXS32 PGTW 122000
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOARNHEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BAD
ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 18.6S5 123.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 123.9E5
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, V CBMKAAVL QEPYPPZ0 --- 19.4S4 123.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
8  VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   1318#0Z3 --- 20.1S3 122.5E0
)-  MAX SUSTAINED WIND - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 20.6S8 121.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
<;3594 59 48 HR POSIT: 225
EG/ 06 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 21.5S8 120.5E8
   VAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.867  123.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6
KNTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
121730Z4 INFRARED SATERLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 121730Z4 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TROPICAL CYLONE PYS
(THELMA) HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW
FROM TVBYOPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESERT, THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING GOOD UPPEG LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOIST
INFLOW FROM THE COAST, WHICH HAS ALLOED THE SYSTEM TO TEMPORARILY
INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INITIALLY, AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, IN

THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND
STEADY ORGANIZED STRUCTURE, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS
FORECAST TO ONLY WEAKEN TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT CLOUD SIGNATURE. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z3 (DTG 13075$Z9) AND 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2).//

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