Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 2 Dec 1998 13:56:00 -0600

644
WTXS31 PGTW 022100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 16.5S2 119.3E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 119.3E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 17.2S0 118.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 17.9S7 117.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 18.7S6 117.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 19.6S6 116.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4  119.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (30 KNOTS) ARE BASED
ON 021130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE.  SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS TC 05S HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS NOW SPIRALING AROUND
THE CENTER. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEEPENING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1000MB. A 021026Z1
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS ALSO INDICATED A CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTION WRAPPING ABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS AND UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER
THE AREA. TC 05S SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  TC 05S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH, TC 05S SHOULD BEGIN
TO EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800ZZ1 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 020751Z DEC 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW020800) NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 (DTG
030151Z0), 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6), 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3) AND
032100Z6 (DTG 031951Z9).//

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