Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 Apr 1998 09:19:40 -0500

599
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- 13.8S2 72.0E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 72.0E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 14.2S7 72.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 14.7S2 72.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.4S0 72.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.2S9 73.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 13.9S3   72.1E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 3
KNOTS FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071100Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 071100Z9 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S HAS
BEEN SLOWLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THIS WEAK STEERING FLOW IS DUE TO THE
PRESENT PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH HAS WEAKENED
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND
INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S LOCATED TO THE SYSTEM=S
EAST.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AFTER
THE 12 HOUR POSITION DUE TO THE CONTINUED FORECASTED WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S SHOULD SLOWLY
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1
(DTG 080151Z5) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8).  REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 33S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
WARNINGS.//

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