Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (anacelle) Warning Nr 015

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 12 Feb 1998 20:22:49 -0600

094
WTXS31 PGTW 130300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNING NR 015
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- 27.7S6 62.6E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S6 62.6E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 30.1S4 65.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 32.8S3 69.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 35.7S5 73.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 39.0S2 79.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION 28.3S3   63.3E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED TO
17 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 130001Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
75 KNOTS. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TENDENCY OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO EXPAND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND GAIN SPEED AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TRANSITIONING
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(ANACELLE) SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE
WEAKENING WILL BE SLOW BECAUSE OF THE SYSTEM=S RAPID FORWARD
MOTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4) AND 140300Z8 (DTG
140151Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  22S (VICTOR) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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