Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 28s (fiona) Warning Nr 003 Relocated

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 17 Mar 1998 20:38:31 -0600

591
WTXS31 PGTW 180300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z9 --- 18.7S6 60.6E2

PAGE 02 RUHPSGG8561 UNCLAS
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 60.6E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 19.2S2 59.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 19.7S7 59.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

PAGE 03 RUHPSGG8561 UNCLAS
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 20.5S7 58.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 21.3S6 58.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---

PAGE 04 RUHPSGG8561 UNCLAS
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION 18.8S7  60.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) HAS REINTENSIFIED BY REDEVELOPING
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE CURRENT WARNING
POSITION IS RELOCATED FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON 171706Z2 SSM/I AND
171913Z2 SCATTEROMETER DATA. TC 28S (FIONA) REMAINS IN A WEAK
STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT AND A SLOW SOUTHWEST AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TRACK IS INDICATED BY MOST OF OUR OBJECTIVE FORECAST
AIDS. WE HAVE DISCOUNTED THE 171200Z1 NOGAPS MODEL RUN DUE TO
POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE POSITION OF TC 28S. WE HAVE FOLLOWED
THE GFDN MODEL'S INTENSITY FORECAST OF STEADY DEVELOPMENT WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM AND
RESTRICTING THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS HAS WEAKENED AND
LIFTED OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS NO LONGER AFFECTING TC 28S
(FIONA). OUR CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
FROM OUR PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON THE RELOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND, AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT TC28S (FIONA) TO TRACK

PAGE 05 RUHPSGG8561 UNCLAS
OVER OR JUST EAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z5 (DTG 181351Z9) AND 190300Z3 (DTG
190151Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  27S (ELSIE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
BT
#8561

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