Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 16:54:58 -0500

257
ABIO10 PGTW 122000 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/122000Z/131800Z JUNE 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 15N6 88E6. THE
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HOWEVER, INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
GOOD ORGANIZATION AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. ALSO, THE CONVECTION IS
NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN ANALYZED TO BE OVER LAND FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGEST POSSIBLE
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND LIGHT UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. A 121223Z MICROWAVE
IMAGERY (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES LITTLE LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 08N8 102E3. THE
AREA IS DISORGANIZED WITH SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION, BUT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG A SHEAR LINE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMEN
T
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
3. JUSTIFICATION: TO CORRECT GRAMMAR.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/JOHNSON/TIRSCHEL//

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