Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 1998 13:46:52 -0600

784
WTXS32 PGTW 292100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING NR 012
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z0 --- 14.9S4 127.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 127.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 15.4S0 126.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 15.9S5 125.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 16.5S2 124.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 17.1S9 122.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 17.9S7 119.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION 15.0S6  126.9E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 291730Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
AN AVERAGE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST DUE TO A
SMALL WEAKNESS BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM,
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES). WHILE OVER LAND,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY DUE TO IT=S CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE
BY THE 36-48 HOUR POSITION AND BE BACK OVER THE OPEN WATER BY 72
HOURS. BY THE 72 HOUR POSITION, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
MORE WESTWARD WITH TIME DUE TO EASTERLY STEERING FLOW AND SHOULD
INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OVER THE OPEN WATER AT 291800Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2), 300900Z2 (DTG
300753Z8), 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5) AND 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  15S (TIFFANY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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