Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gemma) Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 8 Apr 1998 20:58:36 -0500

647
WTXS31 PGTW 090300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- 13.8S2 70.0E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 70.0E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 13.8S2 68.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.1S6 66.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 14.9S4 65.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 16.1S8 64.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION 13.8S2   69.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GEMMA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 082300Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
CI3.5 (KGWC). THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF WEAK
EASTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 32S (GEMMA) IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD THEN BEGIN A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S
(GEMMA) IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9) AND
100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8).//

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