Subject: Indian-S: This Warning Upgrades And Supersedes The Tropical

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 9 Feb 1998 21:23:12 -0600

064
WTXS33 PGTW 100300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 001
   THIS WARNING UPGRADES AND SUPERSEDES THE TROPICAL
   CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW) FOR THIS SYSTEM
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z1 --- 15.4S0 120.5E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 120.5E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 15.5S1 118.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 15.9S5 116.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 16.6S3 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 17.5S3 112.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 15.4S0  120.0E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 092330Z7 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED
RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S IS ANTICIPATED
TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND LACK OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101355Z5) AND 110300Z5
(DTG 110155Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

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