Subject: Indian-N: Immediate Delivery Req To Amconsul Calcutta And Amembassy Dhaka

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 04:50:48 -0600

929
WTIO31 PGTW 220900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z0 --- NEAR 19.9N9 87.8E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N9 87.8E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 20.2N4 87.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 20.8N0 87.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 21.4N7 87.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 22.1N5 87.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.0N2 87.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 220530Z2
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B HAS BECOME
SHEARED. THE SYSTEM=S UPPER LEVEL DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING
CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXPOSED. WITHOUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B
HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B TO SLOWLY DRIFT OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND THEN BEGIN MOVING NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 221500Z7 (DTG 221353Z6) AND 230300Z4 (DTG 230153Z4).//
BT

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