Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 34s Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 21 Apr 1998 20:57:23 -0500

258
WTXS31 PGTW 220300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z4 --- 11.8S0 62.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 62.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 11.9S1 60.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 12.2S5 58.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION 11.8S0   61.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
220001Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 220001Z5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS,
SYNOPTIC DATA AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM.  THIS STEERING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S HAS EXPERIENCED AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 10 HOURS. HOWEVER, BOTH A 211931Z7
SCATTEROMETER PASS AND A 211630Z3 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM=S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE
ELONGATED.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 34S SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNING AT 221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4).//

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