Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 1 Feb 1998 02:01:12 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

183
ABIO10 PGTW 010800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/010800Z FEB 98 - 011800Z FEB 98//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GUAM/010153ZJAN98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
   (1)  AT 010000Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WAS LOCATED
AT 18.8S7 122.7E2, MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LES) WARNING
NUMBER 21 (WTXS32 PGTW 010300)) AND TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
   (2)  NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 24 HOURS
NEAR 18S9 105E6.  THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (TIFFANY).  ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED 43 NM WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING
THE PAST 3 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS POOR IN ALL
QUADRANTS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
   (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 24 HOURS OVER
MOZAMBIQUE NEAR 16S8 36E6.  ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS POOR IN
ALL QUADRANTS. SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY BEING HINDERED
BY INTERACTION WITH LAND.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
   (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 24 HOURS IN THE
INDIAN OCEAN NEAR 11S2 65E1.  ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION LOOSELY ORGANIZED
AROUND A POORLY DEFINED CENTER.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE
NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS, POOR ELSWHERE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1007 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
   (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/SANCHEZ/PATTERSON/UROGI//

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