Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 25 Aug 1998 13:23:19 -0500

296
ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/251800Z/261800Z AUG 98//
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9S9 72E9 IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 9S9 68E4. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS EXISTED FOR OVER
12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS
(250052Z4) INDICATED A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION, A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN NOT BE CONFIRMED AT
THIS TIME USING ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
HOWEVER, THE 200 MB SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE
THE CONVECTION IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/HATFIELD/GOODMAN//

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