Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 11 Feb 1998 20:44:30 -0600

739
WTXS33 PGTW 120300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z3 --- 15.0S6 113.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 113.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 14.3S8 110.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 14.1S6 108.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 14.0S5 106.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 14.0S5 105.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION 14.8S3 112.5E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 112330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED THE CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER
THE SYSTEM CENTER ALONG WITH BETTER ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
6 TO 8 HOURS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTOR) HAS
TAKEN A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS
DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF RIDGING TO ITS SOUTH. AFTER 24 HOURS,
THE MOTION TRACK SHOULD TURN BACK MORE WESTERLY AND SLOW SOME
IN SPEED AS THE RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z9 (DTG 121355Z7) AND 130300Z7 (DTG 130155Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  20S (ANACELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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