Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 2 May 1998 13:02:16 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

210
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z MAY 98//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 06S6
72E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 07S7 72E9. VISIBLE POLAR ORBITER SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 020916Z8 INDICATED A GENERALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN.
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER DIEGO
GARCIA, WITH THE LOWEST PRESSURE RECORDED AT ABOUT 1007MB. MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AT 021607Z6 INDICATED THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL RATHER
BROAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1
093E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8S8 091E0. THE CONVECTION IS VERY
DISORGANIZED ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANALYSIS AT 012225Z2 AND
021025Z0 INDICATED SOME DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING TH
E
PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 021412Z0 INDICATED NO
ORGANIZATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE, THIS
AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 07S7 048E2 HAS NOW
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT.
      (4) THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 8S8 56E1. THE AREA OF
CONVECTION, LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NORTH OF MADAGASCAR, HA
S
BEEN PERSISTANT FOR NEAR 18 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGER
Y
INDICATE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COCKS/SCHIBER/JOHNSON/BOYD//

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