Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Dec 1998 20:25:06 -0600

648
WTIO31 PGTW 130300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08A WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- NEAR 10.3N4 68.3E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N4 68.3E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 10.3N4 67.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 10.4N5 65.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 10.7N8 64.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 11.4N6 62.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 13.9N3 60.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.3N4  68.0E4.
TC 08A HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED, BUT SYNOPTIC REPORTS AND
A 121752Z8 SCATTEROMETER PASS SUPPORT THE PRESENCE OF 35 KNOT WINDS.
TC 08A IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES
A CONTINUED STEERING DOMINANCE BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH
THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. NEAR 48 HOURS, NUMERICAL MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AND SUBSEQUENT STEERING INFLUENCE OF
PERIPHERAL RIDGING TO THE SYSTEMS SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 112259Z DEC 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 112300) NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG
130751Z7),131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4), 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0) AND
140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2).//

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