Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 03a Warning Nr 014

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Jun 1998 09:25:43 -0500

035
WTIO31 PGTW 071500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- 16.0N7 68.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N7 68.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 17.6N4 68.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 19.3N3 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 21.1N4 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 23.1N6 68.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 26.1N9 70.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 16.4N1   68.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 9 KNOTS.  THE
SYSTEM IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ALTHOUGH LIGHT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES FROM OUTFLOW OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST.  TC 03A IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH 48 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.
AFTERWARDS, A NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO LESSEN AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS.
ACCORDINGLY, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL
WHICH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.  WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77
KNOTS) AND 5.0 (90 KNOTS).  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 21 FEET.  REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3),
080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5), 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1) AND 081500Z4
(DTG 081351Z8).//

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