Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 03a Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Jun 1998 03:32:54 -0500

732
WTIO31 PGTW 060900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- 12.3N6 69.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N6 69.0E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 12.7N0 68.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 13.4N8 67.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 14.0N5 67.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 14.7N2 67.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 15.9N5 67.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION 12.4N7   68.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
IN THE SOUTH EASTERN ARABIAN SEA. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON A 060433Z6 MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS AND ANIMATION OF
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A SATELLITE DERIVED DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF CI 4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND A SHIP REPORT OF 60
KNOTS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N6 69.0W5. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST TRACK. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS
THE VERTICAL SHEAR DIMINISHES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060600Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6),
062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2), 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4) AND 070900Z6
(DTG 070751Z0).//

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