Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (anacelle) Warning Nr 011

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 Feb 1998 20:01:54 -0600

211
WTXS31 PGTW 110300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) WARNING NR 011
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- 18.2S1 059.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 059.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 19.5S5 059.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 20.6S8 059.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 22.4S8 059.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 24.7S3 060.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION 18.5S4  059.2E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 102330Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM=S CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
INTENSIFIES, ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED DURING
THE PAST 03 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE DOMINANT ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH 36
HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS, THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN
RECURVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ERODES THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE=S STEERING INFLUENCE. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (ANACELLE) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAK-
ENING AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 22 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS  AT 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2) AND 120300Z6 (DTG
120151Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  22S (VICTOR) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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