Subject: Indian-S: 1 Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) We

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Jan 1999 21:43:34 -0600

314
WTXS31 PGTW 290300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL R LONE WARNING
1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WE
 NR 018
 # 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHYE
   MAM
AINE WINDS BSED ONONMINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z1 --
 ;,3-4 17.5S3 86.8E2
     MOVEME PAST SIX HOURL- 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWAPWCIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
  ,REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 86.8E2
   FZRCUAAVL QW HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z=1-.$181S0 84.6Z8
   MAX SUSTAINED AINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOU
LEST SEMCIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HRNMOSIT: 265 DEG11 KTS
   24 HRS, AELEHL EHPPZ3 --- 18.2S1 82.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - )50 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NMIUOUTH SEMI
  L
L            QEP NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTE
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   3012001386 - .# 1 79.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KTBN GUSTS 055 KT
AQEP NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
   EXTENDEE ITLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID ATC
   310000Z4 ---,10.1S0 77.6E0
   MUXSUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 0Q NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
   8

)  100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 2 HRNPOSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
   72 HRS, VALIDTC
   010000Z1 --- 17.8S6 73.0E8
   OAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 0408-=, (0(5
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATAR
   )8()035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE

REMARKEJLEPPZ4 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5   86.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (D.83,) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE I
Y. THE
LTWW INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTI
MATES
OF T3.0 AND T3,5 (45 AND 55 KNOTS). THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 15S (GWEN) REMAINS
UNDER TH STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST=
MUTHEAST. THE SYSAW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY
EXPOSED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE

LOW LEVEL CICCULATION, MOD
TE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION LOWDRICG THE STEERING LEVEL OF THE SYSTEM OVER TIME.
XQVIPVVYINGSMF OEERING LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC2-S (DAMIEN)
TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A BUILDING 700MB RIDGE
SOITHWEST OF THE SY EPM TC 15S (DAMIE
SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSU-/99 5#3 ->943.3,589,3$ -#3-48,< 9, 5#
R FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
TOPPPPZIS20 FEE. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINOS AT 290900Z0 (DTG 290757Z0), 291500Z7
(DTG ;,;+7),-92100Z4 (DTG 291957Z3) AND 300300Z+ ,15<
300157Z6).//

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