Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gwenda) Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 6 Apr 1999 03:11:26 -0500

999
WTXS32 PGTW 060900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 15.4S0 116.9E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 116.9E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 16.6S3 116.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 18.0S9 115.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 19.3S3 114.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 20.7S9 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 23.9S4 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3  116.7E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S
(GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
UPON 065330Z7 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 32S
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 32S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS
WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 32S IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHEN INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, THEN WEAKEN IT RAPIDLY.
LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF EXMOUTH GULF IS EXPECTED WITHIN 60 HOURS
AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4), 070300Z0
(DTG 070153Z6) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
BT
#004

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