Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 33s (hamish) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 22 Apr 1999 09:35:27 -0500

999
WTXS31 PGTW 221500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z7 --- NEAR 17.0S8 86.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 86.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 17.4S2 85.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 17.6S4 83.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 17.5S3 80.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 17.3S1 77.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9   86.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 33S (HAMISH) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 221130Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KNOTS) AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 33S
(HAMISH) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, THEREFORE, LOWERING THE LEVEL IN
WHICH THE SYSTEM IS STEERED. THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH HAS BEGUN TO TRACK THE SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE WEST. THIS
STRONG WESTWARD FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEMS REMAINING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE
EAST. THE LLCC IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER
THE 12 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. TC 33S (HAMISH) MAY OCASSIONALLY BUILD
BACK SOME SHORT TERM CONVECTION, BUT A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE
LLCC IS FORECASTED BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND RADII
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DUE TO A PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER IMAGE AND AN
ENHANCE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEMS CENTER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z8 (DTG 230151Z2) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231351Z5).//
BT
#0007

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