Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 9 Oct 1999 21:18:31 -0500

558
ABIO10 PGTW 100200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/100200Z/101800Z OCT 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
72E9, SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 70E7.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR
OVER 24 HOURS AND INIDCATES THE AREA IS IN A MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AND A 091557Z7 SSM/I PASS DEPICT A
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF CONVECTION.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE SUSPECT AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1)
TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/COUTURE/JOHNSON/NEAULT//

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