Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 008

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 1999 20:06:23 -0600

073
WTXS31 PGTW 260300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 008
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z8 --- NEAR 15.2S8 94.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 94.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 14.8S3 92.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 14.8S3 89.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 15.0S6 87.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 15.4S0 85.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 93.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS PARTLY EXPOSED.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION
HAS REFORMED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 252330Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND EXTRAPOLATION
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY
WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF
STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z8 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261357Z4)
AND 270300Z2 (DTG 270157Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE)
WARNING (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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