Subject: Indian-N: 010353zfeb Qooxx

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 1999 23:40:59 -0600

044
WTIO21 PGTW 010400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
010353ZFEB QOOXX
REF/E/RMG/NAVPACMETOVDX PEAR  -4?94  8/310353Z JAN KBOXX
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 3)400)//
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO IMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. STJMATION OF A STNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N4 90.0E9 TO 13.5N9 83.7E8
)WITH
IN THE NEXT 1+ TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBEHED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 59 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 312330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULETION CENTER ILOCATED
NEAR 9.3N2 9.0E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDNAT 04
KNOTS.
3. REMARS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. ANCMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR

SATELLE IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PERSISTS OVER OHIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO GENERATE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.

IF VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS, THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHZR ORGANIZATION. THE POTENTIAL FTR SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELTPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 020400Z6.//

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