Subject: Indian-N: The Southwest Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Dec 1999 07:40:03 -0600

118
WTIO20 FMEE 311152
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  99/12/31 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
 WARNING SUMMARY : WARNING NR 28/01 ISSUED ON THE 31/12 AT 06 TU.

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ?ASTRIDE?, LOCATED ON THE 31ST AT 06 UTC BY
12.7S/51.2E, AND MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, 9KT.

SEE WARNING 28/01 AND FOLLOWINGS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

PART 2 :
 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

THE ITCZ IS AXED ALONG THE 7 S, WELL DEFINED BY A FLUCTUATING
CONVECTION LINE BETWEEN 60  E AND 100 E.

1- A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN BE DETECTED NEAR 10S/91E,
ACCORDING TO ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY. ASOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS
WEAK.
ECMWF'S MODEL ANALYSE A MINIMUM OF ABSOLUTE VORTICITY AND MAINTAINS
IT QUASI-STATIONNARY..

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION REMAINS POOR.

2- AN AREA OF FLUCTUATING CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS NEAR 7S/76E. THIS AREA IS SITUATED IN A WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AND NO OBVIOUS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CAN BE DETECTED WITH THE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ECMWF'S MODEL ANALYSE A MINIMUM OF ABSOLUTE VORTICITY IN THIS AREA
AND MOVES IT SOUTHWARD IN THE NEXT DAYS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THIS AREA
IS FAIR BEYOND 24 HOURS.=

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