Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s (frederic) Warning Nr 008

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 27 Mar 1999 19:38:12 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 280300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z0 --- NEAR 15.2S8 108.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 15.2S8 108.9E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 16.1S8 106.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 16.9S6 104.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 17.4S2 102.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 18.0S9 100.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 108.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 272330Z7 ANIMATED
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TC 31S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 15 FEET. THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER IS SWITCHING TO 12 HOURLY WARNINGS ON THIS SYSTEM
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0) AND
290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8).//
BT
#0008

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