Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Mar 1999 11:30:26 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/221800Z/231800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221357 MAR 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 54E9 4N4
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 221200Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) HAS MOVED
INLAND AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9S5 115.0E7 AND MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS34 PGTW
221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 14S5 42E6 OFF THE
NORTHEAST MOZAMBIQUE COAST. 221200Z7 SYNOPTIC DATA DEPICTS A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST OFF SHORE AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
  (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 70E7
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK CIRCULATION IS BENEATH THE
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17S8 102E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16S7 102E3. THIS REGION HAS MAINTAINED MINIMAL
CONVECTION BUT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS PERSISTED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/NORDMAN/THOMAS/PARKER/GLASS//
BT
#XXXX

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