Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 25 Feb 1999 11:58:43 -0600

934
WTXS21 PGTW 251830
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251821Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 20.6S8 37.1E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 251434Z9 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.6S8 36.0E9.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELITE DATA INDICATES
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THE AREA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IS DEVELOPING IN THE TAIL OF A SHEAR LINE. SYNOPTIC REPORTS IN
THE VICINITY ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 250751Z0
SHOWED 20 KNOTS ARROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER.MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ARE ESTIMATED
AT 1007 MB.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 261830Z0.//
BT
#XXXX

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