Subject: Indian-S: Ocean/291800z/301800z Jan 99//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 13:01:53 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

975
ABIO10 PGTW 291800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
OCEAN/291800Z/301800Z JAN 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291357Z JAN 99//
NE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 12 HOURS NEAR 6N6
93E2 NORTHWEST OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOSELY ORGANIZED WITH A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, NO SPECIFIC LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
DISCERNIBLE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. 291200Z4 SHIP SYNOPTIC IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 291200Z4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.8S6 83.9E0 MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE
REFERENCE A (WTXS31 291500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17S8 122E5
ON THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA HAS DISSIPATED. THIS AREA IS NO
LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4 99E8
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15S6 94E3. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
THE PAST 12 HOURS. OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FAIR IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS BUT POOR ELSEWHERE WITH WEAK EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 09 HOURS NEAR 7S7
50E5 NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SCATTERED RECURRENT CONVECTION BUT NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 291200Z4 SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A BROAD,
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:  TO CORRECT MESSAGE DTG FOR
REFERENCE A.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/THOMAS/BROOKS//

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