Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Mar 1999 14:26:16 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 072100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 015
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 17.2S0 69.4E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 69.4E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 17.7S5 66.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 18.4S3 63.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 19.1S1 60.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 20.1S3 57.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 68.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY (105 KTS) ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FIX POSITIONING FROM AFWA, SUITLAND, AND LA-
REUNION. THESE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE
SYSTEM TO BE BETWEEN 102 TO 115 KTS. ANIMATION INDICATES A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE
AND A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATION ALSO
SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER
THAN NORMAL RATE DUE TO THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. WIND
RADII ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3) AND 082100Z1 (DTG
081953Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  26S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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