Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 007a Amended Relocated

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 1999 17:12:41 -0600

791
WTXS31 PGTW 251500 AMD
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 007A AMENDED RELOCATED
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z0 --- NEAR 15.9S5 95.8E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 95.8E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 15.4S0 93.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 15.2S8 91.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 15.3S9 89.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 15.7S3 87.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 95.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AND BECOME
DISORGANIZED AS CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
INCREASED. A 250954Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE CENTER OF
TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE FIELD OF COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER ACTING TO
DECREASE THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AT LEAST MODERATE CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS DESPITE REMAINING IN MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE
DECOUPLING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS, WE HAVE
BROUGHT OUR FORECAST TRACK FARTHER NORTH IN LINE WITH THE
DYNAMIC MODELS WHICH INDICATE THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW WILL BE
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. TC 15S (DAMIEN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THAT IT IS MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER, IF TC 15S SURVIVES THE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH, THEN
TC 15S MAY REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR 85E
LONGITUDE WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CUT OFF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z0 IS 23 FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: RELOCATION OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER FARTHER NORTH AND A CHANGE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG  260157Z1) AND 261500Z4
(DTG 261357Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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