Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Mar 1999 08:12:31 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 13.4S8 97.2E8
   APMH PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION AC?UA TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY PPSU:UIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -  KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 97.2E8
    ---
 ?FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 13.1S5 95.2E6
 AAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 DPOSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   0811B>-- 13.60 92.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 14.0S5 90.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 14.4S9 89.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 15.1S7 85.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 96.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE NORTH OF ITS LAST
POSITION.  RELOCATION IS DUE TO PARTIAL EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY SHEARED TO THE WEST.
TC 26S HAS MOVED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. WARNING POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
SOUTHWEST OF THE WARNING POSITION. FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN TURN TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF TC 25S (DAVINA). INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN MORE
RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH BETTER ORGANIZATION. WIND
RADII ARE GREATER TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 (DTG
071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5), 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1) AND
081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

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