Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 5 Mar 1999 02:20:33 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 050900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 13.5S9 83.4E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 83.4E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 13.9S3 80.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 14.4S9 77.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 14.9S4 75.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 15.4S0 72.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 82.6E6.  RELOCATED
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN EYE IS FORMING AND THAT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PREVIOUSLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT HAS WEAKENED.
DESPITE RECENT WARMING OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, TC 25S HAS
INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION AND IS AT TYPHOON INTENSITY. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 050530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND T4.0 (65 KNOTS).
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECREASE ITS TRANSLATIONAL SPEED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ALL DYNAMIC AND THE MAJORITY OF
STATISTICAL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.
TC 25S (DAVINA) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW INCREASES IN ORGANIZATION AND
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CEASES. WIND RADII ARE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
OUTWARD DUE TO VISIBLE SATELLITE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8
(DTG 051953Z3) AND 060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1).//
BT
#0008

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