Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 4 Dec 1999 21:53:40 -0600

689
ABIO10 PGTW 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/050400Z/051800Z DEC 99//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041721Z DEC 99//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N0
54.8E7 DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED INTO NORTHERN SOMALIA, AND IS NO
LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW
041730) FOR THE CANCELLATION MESSAGE.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD
31W PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N1 100.6E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N5
97.6E2, IN THE EASTERN ANDAMAN SEA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/CANTRELL/THOMAS/GLASS/WHITCOMB//

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