Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 1999 20:20:56 -0600

953
WTXS31 PGTW 140300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z5 --- NEAR 23.8S3 38.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 38.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 25.1S8 38.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 26.5S3 39.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 28.2S2 39.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 30.2S5 41.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 33.4S0 45.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 24.1S7 38.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. 131833Z9
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 132330Z2 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. AFTER 36 HOURS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT TC 21S WILL RECURVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN LEVEL OFF AND BEGIN
WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 (DTG
140753Z0), 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7), 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3) AND
150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA)
WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCC06960450212

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