Subject: Indian-N: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Colombo And Amconsul Madras

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Oct 1999 09:48:23 -0500

233
WTIO31 PGTW 261500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- NEAR 15.0N6 93.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 70 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            50 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N6 93.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 16.2N9 92.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 30 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
      VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 303 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 17.2N0 90.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 304 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 18.1N0 89.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 316 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 19.3N3 88.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.3N9 93.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND IS APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHWEST OF
RANGOON, MYANMAR. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH A DISTINCT
BANDING FEATURE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE 200 MB CHART INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. BOTH
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE TC 05B IS
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 05B SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).//
BT
#XXXX

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