Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 1999 14:13:05 -0600

196
WTXS32 PGTW 012100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 19.4S4 75.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 75.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 19.6S6 73.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 20.0S2 70.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 20.1S3 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 20.1S3 65.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 75.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY (40
KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SHIP REPORTS TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATES TC 17S HAS BEGUN TO
SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS WINDSHEAR REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE AREA.
EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A FAIRLY LARGE AND ASYMMETRICAL WINDFIELD ON THE SOUTHERN HALF. TC
17S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINATE STEERING FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AS TC 17S CONTINUES TO GET SHEARED,
IT WILL COME UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TC 17S IS THUS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS
THE SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST 35 KNOT WIND
RADII IS OMITTED AFTER THE 12 HOUR POSITION SINCE MAX WINDS ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO BE 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0
IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 (DTG 020751Z5) AND 022100Z5
(DTG 021951Z8).//

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