Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s (frederic) Warning Nr 014

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 20:44:08 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 310300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310000Z4 --- NEAR 17.3S1 93.6E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 93.6E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 17.4S2 91.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 17.8S6 89.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 18.4S3 86.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 19.3S3 85.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 93.1E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, ABOUT 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS
ISLAND. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (125 KTS) ARE BASED ON
302330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A (17 NM) EYE AND
HAS SLOWLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 31S
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 31S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INDUCES  A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE WIND RADII WAS
EXPANDED BASED ON SATELLITE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0
(DTG 311351Z4) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8).//

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