Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 022

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 1999 03:16:59 -0600

394
WTXS31 PGTW 300900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 022
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z9 --- NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     OSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS PTP KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 16.8S5 78.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 0-5 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 16.7S4 76.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 0 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVE WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 16.8S5 74#)031
   M
B SUSTAINED I
KIU25 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATEJ AS A STNIFWCANT TROPICAL CYCLVBVMY
NL;1  -7=
REMARS
R
300.00QKDPOSITION NEAR 17.1S9 80.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HAS MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIEN
C
E
 MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE LO
W
-LEVEQ
 CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENS
I
TY ARE
 BASED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSI
T
Y IS
 ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IS FORE
C
AST
 TO CONTINU
 MOVIM-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXZ 12 HOAS IT MOVES
 OUT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN, THE TRACK CONTINUE
S

 MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. MHIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED T CONTINUE W
EAKENING
 DUETO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLAT
I
ON FROM T
?HE PREVIOUS
 WARNING AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICAN
T
 WAVE HEIG
?HT AT 300600Z
 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATI
T
N. NEXT WA
?RNING
 ATP302Z6 (DTG 301957Z5) AND 310900Z3 (DTG 310757Z3).//
BT

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