Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Feb 1999 11:28:44 -0600

169
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/121800Z/131800Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25S7 45E9
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26S8 45E9 OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH APPARENT POOR UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION ATTACHED TO THE END OF A SHEARLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 18 HOURS NEAR
20.0S2 37.5E5 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WITH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT APPEARS
POOR IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, FAIR ELSEWHERE. 121200Z6
SYNOPTIC AND SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16S7 115E7
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0S3 116.2E0 JUST OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS REGENERATED OVER LAND DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR OVER THE
AREA HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. 121200Z6 SYNOPTIC AND
SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE COASTLINE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/LAFRAMBOISE/PARKER/JACKSON//
BT
#0000

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