Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 1999 12:01:03 -0600

637
ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/251800Z/261800Z JAN 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251357Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5N5 78E5
HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT BUT POORLY ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 251200Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.5S2 95.5E9 MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE
A (WTXS31 251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
SUMATRA NEAR 5S5 97E6 IS NOW LOCATED 5S5 96E5. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
INTERMITTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/THOMAS/BROOKS//

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