Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 27 Mar 1999 13:41:13 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 272100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z8 --- NEAR 14.8S3 109.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 109.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 15.7S3 107.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 16.4S1 105.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 17.2S0 103.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 17.8S6 101.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 19.1S1 96.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 109.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
SOUTH OF JAVA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 271730Z0 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S CONTINUES TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, BUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A
WEAKENING IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 (DTG
280151Z7), 280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3), 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0) AND
282100Z3 (DTG 281951Z6).//
BT
#0007

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.