Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05b Warning Nr 010

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 30 Oct 1999 09:14:28 -0500

585
WTIO31 PGTW 301500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z6 --- NEAR 20.3N5 85.8E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N5 85.8E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 20.1N3 85.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 20.0N2 85.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.3N5 85.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD, ESSENTIALLY
QUASI-STATIONARY, AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS, AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF TC 05B DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SPARSE WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NORTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PULLS
THE MAJORITY OF MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD, AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS CHARTS SHOW MODERATE
SHEAR OVER SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE RAPID WEAKENING.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD UNDER
WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY 24 HOURS. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG
310151Z1).//
BT
#0001

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