Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Mar 1999 08:00:08 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 261500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- NEAR 13.8S2 114.8E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 114.8E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 14.8S3 112.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 15.6S2 111.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 16.0S7 108.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 16.0S7 105.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 15.4S0 100.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 114.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTWEST AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
261130Z3 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) MAY
EXIST BENEATH THE CONVECTION. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS). TC 31S
HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IF FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTWEST DURING THE INITIAL
24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE
TOWARDS THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 31S HAS REMAINED AT A RELATIVELY CONSTANT INTENSITY
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSOLIDATION
OF CONVECTION NEAR THE PRIMARY LLCC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN A
REGION OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 31S IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE ENTIRE 72 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6),
270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2) AND 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9).//

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