Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 1999 21:27:06 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/160300Z/161800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160251 MAR 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 60E6
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 62E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3 74E1
HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY. A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT IN THE 151200Z8 SURFACE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14S5 94E3
HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY AND DECREASED IN ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 - 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006MB.  THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4 120E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13S4 118E0 SOUTHEAST OF JAVA, AND IS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
      (5) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 11S2 133E7. THIS
AREA HAS DEVELOPED VERY RAPIDLY, AND IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20-25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1003 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(6) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
3. THIS BULLETIN REISSUED TO ADD THE NEW SUSPECT AREA IN PARA 2-B-
5, AND TO REFLECT THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT ON THE AREA IN PARA 2-B-4
FORECAST TEAM: MALMQUIST/JOHNSON/BROOKS//

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