Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien-birenda) Warning Nr 021

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 15:03:09 -0600

933
WTXS31 PGTW 292100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WARNING NR 021
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z0 --- NEAR 17.9S7 83.3E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 83.3E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 18.1S0 80.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 18.4S3 78.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 18.8S7 76.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 19.3S3 73.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 82.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE
CENTER CONTINUES TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
AND 45 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z0 IS 19 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2
(DTG 300757Z2) AND 302100Z6 (DTG 301957Z5).//

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