Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 5 Feb 1999 21:00:28 -0600

201
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE PV SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WIS BASED ON O
E-MITE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 18.8S7 111.2E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND D1(--;) MAX SUSZDCIKIVQRP WN GUSTS 050 K
   RADIUS OT KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTVWEST SEMICIRCEVL
 NM ELSEWHERE
   REP POSIT: 18.8S7 111.2E5
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VAD AT:
   061200Z9 --- 18.9S8 109.1E19
   MASINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUUTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 - +-IUN NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                       070 NM ELSEWHERE
 VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 19.1S1 107.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRNLE
             888 080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 365: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
880;CQZ0 ---)19.2S2 105.4EEAPL MAX SUFTAINED WIN
DS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OK 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
        ,                  080 NM ELSEWRE
   VYCTOR TO 48 HRTSIT: 265 DEGWX PO KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 19.3S3 103.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 19.33 99.7E5
-   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KTJGUSTS
065(5
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 110.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITPMLBASED ON 052330ZJLICV
IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE VIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EPOSED L=
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCCGLM AS SUCH, THE INITIAL OSITION HW
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND FORWARD SPEED INCREASED TO REFLECT
THIS MORE CONFIDENT POSITION FIX. THE ARNING INTENSITY WAS BASED ON

A COMBINATION OF 852330Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KNOTS AND A 051537Z1 MICROWAVE SCATTEROMETER
PASS. THE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 35 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING OUT
ABT 120MM SOUTHWO OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE THE
CONVECTION IS SHEARUT 90NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TC 18S IS

EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OUT OF THE
STRONGER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE WIND RADII WERE EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD TO REFLECT THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT

WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 15 FEET. RETO WWT30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG
060755Z3), 061500Z2 (DTG 061355Z0), 062100Z9 (DTG 061955Z6) AND
070300Z0 (DTG 070155Z8).//

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