Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 28s (elaine) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Mar 1999 20:12:00 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 190300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 007
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z0 --- NEAR 23.1S6 111.2E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 23.1S6 111.2E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 25.2S9 110.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 26.5S3 109.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 26.9S7 108.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 111.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OFF
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 182230Z6 ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 28S IS ELONGATING AND DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS
CHANGED IN LINE WITH THE SHEARED SYSTEM SCENARIO. THE LOW LEVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 28S IS BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION
AND IS TRACKING MORE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. HENCE, TC 28S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEGINS
TO BE STEERED WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD
IN THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5),
191500Z6 (DTG 191353Z2), 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8) AND 200300Z5
(DTG 200153Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE)
WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0007

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