Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 12s (alda) Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 Jan 1999 11:14:36 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 171500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z1 --- NEAR 24.3S9 38.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 24.3S9 38.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 25.7S4 37.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 27.9S8 38.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION NEAR 24.7S3 38.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS WEST
OF MADAGASCAR. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
COMBINATION OF A 171131Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WITH A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA OF 40 KNOTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND
EAST. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN 12 HOURS, ALDA WILL MOVE POLEWARD OVER
THE RIDGE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. AS IT MOVES OVER THE RIDGE, IT
WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE MAJORITY
OF DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST
SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 15 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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