Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05b Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 21:17:09 -0500

150
WTIO31 PGTW 300300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z3 --- NEAR 20.8N0 86.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N0 86.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 21.4N7 86.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 22.6N0 86.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.0N3 86.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY NEAR JAJPUR OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN INDIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION
FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. AVERAGE
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER HAVE WARMED OVER TWENTY
DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO THE INFLUX OF
WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN STEADILY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY 24 HOURS. AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO EXISTS IN WHICH TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B MOVES EAST
OF TRACK INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL AND WEAKENS SLOWLY BEFORE MAKING A
SECOND LANDFALL OVER BANGLADESH. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IS CONSIDERED LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IS
OMITTED BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, HOWEVER A STRONG FETCH
EXISTS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL RESULTING IN ROUGH SEAS. REFER
TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNING
AT 301500Z9 (DTG 301351Z3).//

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