Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 07:28:18 -0500

171
WTIO31 PGTW 160900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 16.6N3 87.4E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N3 87.4E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 17.5N3 85.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 18.5N4 84.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 19.3N3 83.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.8N5 86.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST OF INDIA AT 10 KNOTS AND HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED
152330Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04B HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. INDEED, A 160324Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE/IMAGER
PASS INDICATED THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A 10
NM DIAMETER EYE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER EASTERN INDIA
BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AT THAT POINT, TC 04B SHOULD
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z3 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5) AND 170900Z7
(DTG 170753Z3).//
BT
#0001

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