Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Mar 1999 02:36:30 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 070900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z3 --- NEAR 15.3S9 97.2E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 9999 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 97.2E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 15.4S0 93.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 9999 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 15.6S2 90.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 9999 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 15.9S5 87.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 16.2S9 84.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 17.3S1 77.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 96.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF JAVA IN THE SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN. POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM TO BE NEAR 30 KTS. THE SYSTEM
 HAS DEVELOPED INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AND HAS
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. UW-CIMSS DIVERGENCE PRODUCT INDICATES TC 26S IS
IN AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, HOWEVER THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FIX POSITION.
 FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK AS TC 25S (DAVINA)
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE
WAKE OF DAVINA AND ESTABLISHES BETTER ORGANIZATION. WIND RADII ARE
GREATER TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
CONVECTION IN THS SEMI-CIRCLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070600Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN
061421Z4 MAR 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
061430Z) NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7), 072100Z0 (DTG
071951Z3), 080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5) AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001

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