Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 1999 12:01:57 -0600

880
ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/301800Z/311800Z JAN 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300757Z JAN 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301021Z JAN 99//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
NARR/REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6N6 92E1 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N0 91.4E4 WEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED
TO THE NORTH, HOWEVER SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ORGANIZING AROUND A
DEFINABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 300600Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0 MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE A (WTXS31 300900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15S6 94E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S3 91.6E6 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B (WTXS22 301000) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7S7
50E5 NORTH OF MADAGASCAR HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED RECURRENT CONVECTION
BUT NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE AREA IS AT THE END OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1009MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4
118E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11S2 113E5 SOUTH OF JAVA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN RECURRENT CONVECTION BUT NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 301200Z6 SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES A CONVERGENCE ZONE SOUTH OF JAVA AND THE LESSER SUNDA
ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/THOMAS/BROOKS//

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