Subject: Indian-N: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 8 Dec 1999 15:15:14 -0600

203
WTIO21 PGTW 082100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N1 88.0E6 TO 10.9N0 83.6E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 08 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081930Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.0N1 87.3E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10N1 87E5 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.1N2 86.7E1, 380 NM EAST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 081510Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER AND
THE 081756Z7 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASSES SHOW THE
PRIMARY CONVECTION BAND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UW-
CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CHART INDICATES AREA IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 092100Z2.
//

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