Subject: Indian-S: 03 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 17 Mar 1999 02:49:31 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 170900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 003
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z4 --- NEAR 16.4S1 112.0E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 112.0E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 17.0S8 110.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 17.8S6 108.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 18.9S8 107.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            175 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 19.9S9 106.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 111.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS OFF
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 170530Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 28S (ELAINE) HAS A TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
EYE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO MOVE MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES WEAKENS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD, IN A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, UNTIL
THE 48 HOUR TIMEFRAME, WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR TO THE SOUTH. WIND RADII ARE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 161511Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 (DTG
171953Z6) AND 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P
(HALI)WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  29S (NONAME)WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

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