Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Q

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Feb 1999 11:32:42 -0600

852
ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL Q
T$TR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081800Z/091800Z FYFGUA
C1AY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4N4 76E3
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A  SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 081200Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0S0
107.3E1 DRIFTING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 081500Z) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4 49E3
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 12 HOURS NEAR 21S3
36E9 OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR ZONE OVER THE
COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/PARKER/JACKSON//
BT
#XXXX

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