Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 014

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 1999 20:56:59 -0600

297
WTXS31 PGTW 080300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- NEAR 19.1S1 107.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 107.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 19.3S3 107.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 19.4S4 106.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 19.4S4 106.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 107.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 VISIBLE IMAGERY
ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING AND ESTIMATES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DRIFT WIND
SPEEDS. VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
LIMITED CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
ABOUT 150NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CIRCULATION. TC 18S REMAINS WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW OF THE
BROADER MONSOON TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. CONTINUED
SHEAR AND COOLER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE ENTRAINMENT IS EXPECTED
TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z7 (DTG 080755Z5), 081500Z4 (DTG 081355Z2), 082100Z1
(DTG 081955Z8) AND 090300Z2 (DTG 090155Z0).//

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