Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 2 Apr 1999 13:24:26 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 021800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z APR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351 APR 99/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCL0NE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 5N5 86E1.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THE CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED OVER THIS REGION FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION. 021200Z5 200 MB CHART INDICATES WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
021200Z5 SURFACE CHART REVEALS NO INDICATION OF A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 021200Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 18.2S1 85.5E8 AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 021500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 132E6
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 09S9 131E5. THE 021200Z5 SURFACE CHART SHOWS A
BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADDED PARA 1.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/ROBERTS/MORRIS/BALDINGER//

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