Subject: Indian-N: 010353z Feb 99//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 1999 22:41:19 -0600

986
WTIO21 PGTW 010400
UBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERO
010353Z FEB 99//
RKAXRMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEAKVRBOR HI/310353Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGVW 310400)//
RMKS/
1. IMMSPNLDEL
VERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONEHI POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N4 90.0E9 TO 13.5N9 83.7E8
WITHIN THE NEQQTO
4 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA FOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF FUMBERED TROIICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 M 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 312330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CDNTZR IS LOCATED
NSEN2 9.0E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A./-,8.-9
PERSISTSHOVER THIS ISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER CTNTINUES TO GENERATE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.

IF VERTICALLSHEAR WEAKENS, THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER RGANIZATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

TRPICAL CYCL EHDEVEPOPMENT WITHICBHOURSREMAINS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 020400Z6.//

I

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