Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Dec 1999 12:03:19 -0600

804
ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/301800Z/311800Z DEC 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351 DEC 99/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 301200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S3 53.3E1, ABOUT 190 NM EAST OF MADAGASCAR, AND WAS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
301500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S0
120.5E8 IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
KIMBERLEY COAST, AUSTRALIA NEAR 13.5S9 122.2E7. ANIMATED VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE
301200Z6 SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER REMAINS BENEATH THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1S7
87.0E5, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4 89E7 NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 36 HOURS.
THE 301200Z6 SURFACE CHART SUGGESTS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/MAYER/GLASS//

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