Subject: Indian-S: N

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 1999 14:25:38 -0600

431
WTXS32 PGTW 012000
SUBJ:  TVMVQAL CYCTONE WARNING
N
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) LACNCVG NR 006
   PQ ACTIVENTROPICAL CYCLON IN SOUTHERNMHEMISPHYE
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVRAGEOM
.) WARNING POSITIOP:
   0118000 --- NEA QOMP UTMOE15
     MOVEMENT PASTPSIX HOU
 - 26 VDEGRENAT QR KTS
O
W    POSITPACCURATE TM WITHT060,,.
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   MAXSUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUST050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS -090 MMNKLUEMICIRCLE
 -      , ,8,)  8          060 MV ELSEWME
   REPEAT POFIGNPQOMRS4 75.9E19,
O
   FORECASTS:
   12 VRS, VALID AT:
   02;60+8 ---19.6S6 72.3E3
N  MAXMSUSTAINED WINDS - 040,KT, GUUTS 050 KT
ADIUS O035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHEVE
PP VETR TO 21 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
   24
S, VALID AT:
-   021800ZS AAA WPMPS2 70.6E3
   MAX SUSTMAINEDIIF
QZT KT, GUSTS 045 KT
OZ   VTO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
   36 HRS, VI
 AC
   MSSTAINEWINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
-   EXTENDED OUT
OOK,
.00I HRS, VALID AT:
   031800ZQMMDAQS3 65.1E2
--)#MAX SUSTAINED WINENQ35 (5, GUSTS 045 KT

   DISSIHUOINGAVCFICANT TROPICALCYCLONE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
-))000;24 POS
ON NER 19.5S5 75.3E5.
TMPIQAL CYCTONE 17S (CHIKITA) #-)54-:3$-:92-4$ -5 14 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON PQQUEPZ2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY (40
KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF TT
KNOTS AND EZRAPOLATION FROM SHIP REPORTS TO TH STGH. OVER THENM
PAST FEW HOURS, SATELLIEHUVWOUTION INDICATEBT 7S HAS BEGUN TT
SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING IVCISJIHNYEMAINS MODERATE OVER THE AREA.
EARLIER VISIBLEIOAGERY AND RECENT SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICAOEVA
 FAIRLQ LARGE AND ASYMMETRICAL WINDFIELD ON THE SOUOVN OEF. ;-:
17S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDE THENMMINATE STEERINVMMZFT
SUBTROPICAT RINGE TO THE SOUTG. AS TC 17S CONT NUES TO GET SHEAMGMOM
IT WIW VOME UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THEHLOW-MID
PEOS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TC 17S IU THUS FTRECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCEOF THE LOWAMID LEVEL FLOW OF TVM
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUH. MTLATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS
THE SYSTEM WILL INHIBITNER DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TMCPMUT THEMXRECAST PERIOD. THE FOECAST 35 KNOT WIND
RADII IS OMITTED AFTER THE 12 HOUR POSITION SINCE MAX W NDS ARE ONLY

FORECAST TT BE 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z
WQR FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SOGEIGHT
INFOQMATUON. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 (DTG 020751Z5) AND 022100Z5
(DTG 02958;+8).//

W

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