Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 21 Jan 1999 20:48:01 -0600

286
WTXS21 PGTW 220100 COR
220057Z JAN 99//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 140 NM RADIUS OF 12.6S9 110.3E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 110.3E5.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS INCREASED ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DESPITE
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST. IF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WEAKENS, THIS SYSTEM IS IN AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH TO DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 230100Z6.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT IN A DIFFERENT BASIN.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCC26360220241

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