Subject: Indian-N: Ampn/ref Is Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (wtio21 Pgtw 082100)//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 Dec 1999 15:35:03 -0600

842
WTIO21 PGTW 092100
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082051Z DEC 99//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 082100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N4 86.1E5 TO 11.8N0 79.6E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091930Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.5N6 85.8E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.1N2 86.7E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N6 85.8E1, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS CHARTS
INDICATE AREA CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR,
HOWEVER 200 MB CHART INDICATES LLCC HAS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 102100Z4.
//

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