Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 27 Mar 1999 01:47:18 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 270900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- NEAR 13.8S2 111.8E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 111.8E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 14.1S6 110.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 14.7S2 108.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 15.2S8 107.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 15.7S3 105.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 17.1S9 101.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 111.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS SOUTH OF
JAVA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED UPON 270530Z7 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT A STANDARD RATE. THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND REMAINS IN A LOW-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  ALTHOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INCREASED
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FIX POSITION FOR THIS FORECAST, THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 (DTG
271351Z9), 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5), 280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7) AND
280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3).//
BT
#0001

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