Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 5 Apr 1999 21:12:00 -0500

999
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 026
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 18.5S4 68.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 18.5S4 68.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 18.4S3 66.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 18.7S6 64.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 19.1S1 63.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 67.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
052330Z3 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, BUT
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS SHEARED AWAY FROM TC 31S,
NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. HENCE, TC 31S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY AS
IT TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVER WATER BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2
DTG 061351Z6) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070151Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
32S (GWENDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0026

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