Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Feb 1999 16:24:38 -0600

900
ABIO10 PGTW 202300 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/202300Z/211800Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8N8
78E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7N7 74E1, JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME INTERMITTENT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
 (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18S9 119E1
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17S8 118E0. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ON A CYCLONIC MID LEVEL
ROTATION. 201500Z8 SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE COASTAL PRESSURES
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ALSO HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS CONVECTION. OUTFLOW
APPEARS FAIR WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
 (2) A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10S1 80E8.
MINIMAL CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE AREA, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE
ANIMATION SHOWS A DISTINCT CIRCULATION. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADE PARA. 2.B.(1) TO FAIR. NO OTHER CHANGES.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/HERRON/HOWELLS//
BT
#7780

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