Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Feb 1999 09:11:38 -0600

711
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z1 --- NEAR 19.0S0 107.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 107.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 19.0S0 106.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 19.0S0 105.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 18.8S7 104.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0  107.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HAS DRIFTED TOWARDS THE WEST AT 3 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON
081130Z3 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION
FROM THE PREVI0US WARNING. TC 18S REMAINS WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING
FLOW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARDS
THE WEST, EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO A STRONGER WESTWARD STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODERATE WESTWARD SHEAR AND COLD AIR
STRATUS MIXING FROM THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO INHIBIT
NOTABLE DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 36
HOURS HAS ONLY BEEN SPORADIC AND SHORT LIVED. THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BROADEN BUT
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS, THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER
WATER BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081955Z8),
090300Z2 (DTG 090155Z0), 090900Z8 (DTG 090755Z6) AND 091500Z5
(DTG 091355Z3).
//
BT
#7675

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