Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 25s (davina) Warning Nr 014

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Mar 1999 02:26:53 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 070900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 014
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z3 --- NEAR 16.5S2 73.0E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 73.0E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 17.2S0 70.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 18.0S9 67.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 19.0S0 64.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 20.2S4 61.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 72.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. WARNING POSITION BASED ON
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM TO BE NEAR 102 TO 115 KTS.
ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. TC 25S(DAVINA)IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER RATE DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. WIND RADII ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5) AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.