Subject: Indian-S: 03 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 1999 22:30:31 -0600

704
WTXS31 PGTW 240300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 004
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z6 --- NEAR 14.8S3 102.6E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 102.6E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 15.5S1 101.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 16.3S0 99.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 17.1S9 98.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 18.0S9 96.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            175 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6  102.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 232330Z3
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS).
TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS CONTINUED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE FOR THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREFORE, TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GRADUALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADS ALOFT. DECREASING SHEAR HAS ALSO
ALLOWED FOR A MORE SYMMETRIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INFRARED IMAGERY HAS OCASSIONALLY
INDICATED A WARM CENTER, OR EYE-LIKE FEATURE, BRIEFLY APPEARING IN
SOME IMAGES. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS THEREFORE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY THROUGOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
WWPN30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z2 (DTG 241357Z2) AND 250300Z0 (DTG 250157Z0). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  14P (PETE) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCC09150240239

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