Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To ?ambassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Feb 1999 08:29:53 -0600

553
WTXS31 PGTW 141400
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO ?AMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   141200Z8 --- NEAR 22.8S2 39.6E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KP WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMIIRCLER
          #                 040
M ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S2 39.6E8
   FOEQASTS:
   12 HRS, VWLID AT:
   150000Z6 ---2.2S/ 40.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 0 KT WIND - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
,)                          050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 22.0S4 39.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDAVQ45 KT, <7-5- 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                       ,#   065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 22.3S7 3893E4
 ) MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
 # RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NMISOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
88BNM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRSVALID AT:
   161200;+0 --- 22.4S8 37.1E1
   MAPSUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -,1-9 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEM
CIRCLE
                            90 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO UW HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 22.5S9 34.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 22.7S1 39.8E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE WARNING POSIOION IS BASED UPON QQQEPZ0
ANIATED INFRARED SATELLIE IMAGERY. THE WARNING CNTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY JSOIMATES OF 25 AND $0 KNOTS AND
ARUNCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATESHQGO :9,;3:589, 8- -#3-43$ 59 53
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS
DIFFICULT TT HINPTNT AS THE FIXWTIONSTVER THE PAST KPHOURS
ARE VARIED. THIS FORECAST MAKES A BREA FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY OF TC 21S RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST=
NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING T97<# -975# 9>
THE SYSTEM. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTD TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND PROVSIPBVOOWARD
STEI
G INFLUENCE OVER TC 21S. HENCE, OUR NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS
TC 21S TRAVELLING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN
TURNING MORE WESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PONTA SAO
SEBASTIAO, MOZAMBIQUE IN PROXIMATELY 60 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 60 HOURS, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER IT, ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THEN, TC
21S SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM
SIG ICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8
(DTG 141953Z3), 150300Z9 (DTG 1501-3Z5), 150900Z5 ($5< 150753Z1)
AND 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

GWW

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