Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 4 Apr 1999 20:48:00 -0500

999
WTXS31 PGTW 050300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 024
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z5 --- NEAR 19.1S1 72.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 72.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 19.7S7 70.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 20.7S9 68.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 21.9S2 66.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 22.6S0 64.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 72.1E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 042330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY (55 KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HENCE THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY FROM THE LAST WARNING. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS TC 31S MOVES SOUTHWEST
IT WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY THE 36 HOUR
POSITION. THE WEAKNESS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO SHEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE LLCC SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AS IT MOVES WITH THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS IT BEGINS EXPERIENCING INCREASING
 VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 060300Z9
(DTG 060151Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0024

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.