Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Mar 1999 19:40:49 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 270300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- NEAR 14.0S5 112.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 112.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 14.6S1 109.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 15.2S8 107.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 15.9S5 105.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 16.5S2 103.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 17.3S1 100.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 111.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF
JAVA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED UPON 262330Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
SLOWING OF THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
SYSTEMS POSITION AS IT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8
(DTG 270751Z2), 271500Z5 (DTG 271351Z9), 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5) AND
280300Z3 (DTG 280151Z7).//
BT
#0004

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