Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 12 Apr 1999 14:35:09 -0500

999
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/121800Z/131800Z APR 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12N3 92.6E7 AND HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. 121200Z6 SYNOPTIC DATA AND
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13S4 70E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13S4 68E4. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC HAS ELONGATED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ALSO, MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH WAS
DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 8S8 85.2E5 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. 121200Z6 SYNOPTIC DATA
SUGGESTS A LLCC MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA. THE CONVECTION IS
IN AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/COX/HERRON/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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