Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 19 Apr 1999 12:56:30 -0500

999
ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/191800Z/201800Z APR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACTMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351Z APR 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N4
81.5E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N6 81.5E4. ANIMATED VISIBLE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS GONE FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION, THE 191200Z2 SYNOPTIC
DATA SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LIES BENEATH THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE UW-CIMSS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CHART CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MODERATE WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED WEST OF THE
ANDAMAN ISLANDS NEAR 6N6 91E0 HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND EXTENDS
BETWEEN 5N5 80E8 AND 6N6 90E9. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISORGANIZED, AND THE
191200Z3 SYNOPTIC DATA IS BEGINNING TO REFLECT BROAD TROUGHING IS
BENEATH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CHART
INDICATES A MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 191200Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6
92.3E4 AND WAS MOVING SOUTH AT 02 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8S8 91E0 IS
THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA 2.A. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5S2 48E2
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONG CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/THOMAS/PARKER//
BT
#XXXX

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