Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclones In South Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Mar 1999 16:45:36 -0600

999
WTXS34 PGTW 202100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z1 --- NEAR 17.3S1 116.2E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 116.2E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 18.5S4 115.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 20.2S4 114.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 21.9S2 114.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 23.9S4 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 28.7S7 117.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4  115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS.
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME.  TC 30S WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST, RECURVING INTO
THE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COAST.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 201730 SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A 13NM CLOUD FILLED EYE.
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR LANDFALL DUE TO A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201800Z1 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z6 (DTG 210157Z6),
210900Z2 (DTG 210757Z2), 211500Z9 (DTG 211357Z9) AND 212100Z6 (DTG
211957Z5).//
BT
#0001

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