Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Mar 1999 14:18:25 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 082100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 017
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- NEAR 18.4S3 63.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 18.4S3 63.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 19.2S2 60.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 20.1S3 58.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 21.1S4 55.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 21.5S8 52.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5  62.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON 081730Z9 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 100 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOUD FILLED EYE AS TC 25S APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD. TROPICAL CYCLONE
 25S (DAVINA) CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE
 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AS AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD, THE RIDGE
SHOULD REBUILD TO THE SOUTH AND THE FORECAST TRACK ONCE AGAIN
STRIKES OUT WESTWARD BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT APPROACHES THE
EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
AND INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS OF REUNION AND MAURITIUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  26S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0017

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