Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 1999 22:31:33 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

396
ABIO10 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/110300Z/111800Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 19.6S6 36.2E1
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20S2 40E4 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHEARLINE OVER THE CHANNEL. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SHEARLINE OVER THE
CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16N7 112E4
IS NOW NEAR 15.5S1 113.5E0. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A POSSIB;LE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SHEARED JUST EAST OF THE CONVECTION.
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARD. THIS AREA IS AT
THE END OF A SHEARLINE OFF THE COAST OF NORTHWEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA.
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND WINDSHEAR HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 2.B.(2) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/ROBERTS/MORRIS/BALDINGER/GLASS//

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