Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Mar 1999 13:56:46 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 132100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 027
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- NEAR 22.0S4 53.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 22.0S4 53.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 22.3S7 53.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 22.7S1 53.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.1S5  53.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 2 KNOTS OFF
THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 131730Z5 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH 131438Z0 MICROWAVE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TC 25S IS A TOTALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S IS EMBEDDED IN
WEAK STEERING FLOW DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN A SLOW CYCLONIC
LOOP AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH BEGINS TO BECOME DOMINANT. ALTHOUGH TC 25S CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
SPINNING DOWN SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, A 131553Z8 MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING, AND TC 25S
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0) AND 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
BT
#0027

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