Subject: Indian-S: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Mar 1999 00:04:42 -0600

999
WTXS21 PGTW 200600
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 17.8S6 101.7E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 200300Z5 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S0 101.0E2.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXTRAPOLATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION BENEATH AND AREA OF PERSISTANT AND INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR WIND CHARTS INDICATED
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 210600Z9.
//

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