Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 21:33:35 -0600

797
ABIO10 PGTW 300200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/300200Z/301800Z JAN 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291957Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6N6 93E2 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 9N9 91E0 WEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION,
HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ORGANIZING AROUND A DEFINABLE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 291800Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.9S7 83.3E4 MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE
REFERENCE A (WTXS31 292100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15S6 94E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 93.9E1. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS REGENERATED AND CONSOLIDATED
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OUTFLOW ALOFT IS POOR IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 09 HOURS NEAR 7S7
50E5 NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SCATTERED RECURRENT CONVECTION BUT NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 291200Z4 SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A BROAD,
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 08 HOURS NEAR 13S4
118E0 OVER THE TIMOR SEA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOOSELY ORGANIZED IN AN AREA OF
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. 291800Z0 SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: TO UPGRADE POOR AREA IN 2.B.(1) FROM
POOR TO FAIR, AND TO ADD THE POOR AREA IN 2.B.(3).
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/THOMAS/BROOKS//

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