Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 9 Mar 1999 13:55:48 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 092100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 019
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- NEAR 20.8S0 57.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 20.8S0 57.5E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 22.1S5 54.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 23.2S7 51.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 24.0S6 49.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 24.5S1 46.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 56.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS
REUNION AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH TC 25S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST BUILDS EASTWARD, TC 25S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD
BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POOR
PROBABILITY THAT TC 25S MAY STILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THAN THE
TRACK FORECAST IF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST DOESNT BUILD IN AS
PREDICTED. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 091800Z8 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6) AND
102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
BT
#0019

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