Subject: Indian-S: 110521z Feb 99//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Feb 1999 01:02:53 -0600

727
WTXS21 PGTW 110530
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
110521Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 220 NM RADIUS OF 16.0S7 114.1E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 110230Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S4 114.4E0.  THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION, POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S,
GENERATING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.
THE AREA IS LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WEAK TO MODERATE WESTWARD SHEAR IS FORCING
MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
OUTFLOW APPEARS FAIR AND IMPROVING. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
NEAR 999MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 120530Z1.//

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