Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclones In South Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 Mar 1999 10:24:13 -0600

999
WTXS34 PGTW 210300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z3 --- NEAR 17.9S7 115.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 115.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 19.2S2 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 20.7S9 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 23.3S8 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 28.2S2 116.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1  115.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS.
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME.  TC 30S IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE NORTHWEST CAPE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.  IT WILL ACCELERATE OVER LAND AS IT RECURVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z3 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 (DTG
210757Z2), 211500Z9 (DTG 211357Z9), 212100Z6 (DTG 211957Z5) AND
220300Z7 (DTG 220157Z7).//
BT
#0001

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