Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 11:47:17 -0600

472
ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/261800Z/271800Z NOV 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8N8 57E2 IN
THE WESTERN ARABIAN SEA FOR THE PAST 10 HOURS. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A WEAK CIRCULATION MAY BE PRESENT
BENEATH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, NO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE THE AREA IS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEVELOPING FINGER OF THE
JET STREAM ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1
71E8, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION WEAKENED OVER NIGHT
AND THEN REINTENSIFIED DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS.  A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS SUGGESTS EVIDENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH BENEATH THE
AREA OF CONVECTION.  UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/MAYER/DAWSON/TON//
BT
#XXXX

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