Subject: Indian-N: Ampn/ref Is Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (wtio21 Pgtw 102100)//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 Dec 1999 14:57:00 -0600

388
WTIO21 PGTW 112100
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102051Z DEC 99//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 102100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N6 85.2E5 TO 10.4N5 81.5E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111930Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 9.0N9 84.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSM/I) PASS DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST
OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS SITUATED
BENEATH THE CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER A
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 122100Z6.//
BT
#0001

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