Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 24 Oct 1999 22:02:38 -0500

274
ABIO10 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/250300Z/251800Z OCT 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240551 OCT 99/
AMPN/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0N1
100.6E7 (SEE REF A, ABPW10 PGTW 240600) HAS CROSSED THE MALAY
PENINSULA AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5N7 98.5E2 IN THE ANDAMAN
SEA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
INCREASED CONVECTION WITH SOME INDICATION OF ORGANIZATION.
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AND UW CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE A MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8
69.3E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 68.5E9, SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA.
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER. THE
CONVECTION IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.5S4 62.5E3 AND
HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 8 HOURS. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT
YET EVIDENT IN ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA
SUGGESTS A REGION OF TROUGHING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADD POOR IN PARA 1.A.(1) AND PARA 2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: COX/CANTRELL/JOHNSON/GLASS//

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