Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 Oct 1999 02:42:46 -0500

499
WTIO31 PGTW 170900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z4 --- NEAR 18.0N9 84.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N9 84.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 18.6N5 83.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 19.3N3 83.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 20.2N4 82.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.2N1 84.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE COAST OF INDIA. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
UPON 170530Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TC 04B AS A TIGHT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH
A COMPACT 15 NM EYE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN 10 HOURS NORTHEAST OF
VISAKHAPATNAM AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1
(DTG 171953Z6) AND 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4).//

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