Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 9 Mar 1999 02:39:57 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 090900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 018
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z5 --- NEAR 19.6S6 60.1E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 60.1E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 21.0S3 57.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 22.1S5 54.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 22.9S3 51.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 23.2S7 48.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 59.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 090433Z9 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENISTY
ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TC 25S (DAVINA) HAS CONTINUED TO
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS ENTERING INTO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE
CURRENT STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A EASTWARD BUILDING RIDGE
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WHILE CONTINUING ON
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE STEERING FLOW OF THE EASTWARD BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL. TC 25S (DAVINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE INITIAL 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE WESTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEW STEERING FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH
NEARBY ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BEGIN WEAKENING TC 25S (DAVINA)
DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD TAKE
TC 25S (DAVINA) THROUGH THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGES AND ON MORE
OF A SOUTHWARD TRACK AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE CURRENT
STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z5 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7)
AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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