Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 2 Apr 1999 07:58:34 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 021500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z5 --- NEAR 18.2S1 85.5E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 85.5E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 18.6S5 84.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 18.8S7 82.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 18.9S8 80.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 19.0S0 79.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 85.2E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S
(FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 021130Z7 ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPERLEVELS IS
INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS
WEAKENING IT RAPIDLY. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOSING ITS
CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNDERGO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
020225Z1 SSM/I MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS INDIATES A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE CONVECTION BEING ADVECTED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS SOUTH, AND WEAKEN IN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0) AND 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3).//
BT
#0019

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