Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Feb 1999 03:07:25 -0600

015
WTXS31 PGTW 140900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 004 RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z1 --- NEAR 23.5S0 38.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 38.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 24.4S0 39.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 25.6S3 39.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 27.1S0 40.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 28.6S6 42.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 32.2S7 46.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.7S2 39.0E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. RELOCATION IS BASED ON
RELOCATED FIXES FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTER AND THE
140600Z1 FIX FROM THE METEO-FRANCE AT LA REUNION WHICH HOLD THE
SYSTEM APPROXIMATELY 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LAST WARNING
POSITION. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A
140530Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AS WELL AS 140600Z1 SHIP SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF
35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
GOOD IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. AFTER 48 HOURS, TC
21S IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. WIND RADII WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND UNTIL IT BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN BY 48 HOURS,  BEGIN
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WEAKEN, AND ACCELERATE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7), 142100Z8
(DTG 141953Z3), 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5) AND 150900Z5 (DTG
150753Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

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