Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Mar 1999 01:51:13 -0600

999
WTXS34 PGTW 200900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z8 --- NEAR 15.9S5 117.2E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 117.2E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 17.1S9 116.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 18.9S8 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 20.8S0 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 22.6S0 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 26.4S2 115.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9  116.9E7.
TROPICAL STORM 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
200530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 AND T6.0 (102 AND
115 KNOTS, RESPECTFULLY). TC 30S (VANCE) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AS IT STEERS TC 30S (VANCE) TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE INITIAL 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN AXIS
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 30S (VANCE) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA AROUND THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. TC 30S (VANCE) IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 29 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8
(DTG 201357Z8), 202100Z5 (DTG 201957Z4), 210300Z6 (DTG 210157Z6)
AND 210900Z2 (DTG 210757Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.

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