Subject: Indian-S: Limmediate Delivery Req To Amembassy

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Feb 1999 02:37:21 -0600

156
WTXS31 PGTW 150800
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
LIMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY
PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNIG NR 0;8
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z2 --- NEAR 19.8S8 40.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 40.7E1
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 19.0S0 40.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 18.8S7 39.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTSP030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 40.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BSED UPON A 150530Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
SHOW TC 21S IS NOW A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S IS XORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH 12
HOURS AND THEN TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH  S BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TROHCA

CYCLONE 21S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO FRICTIONAL SPINDOWN AND DISSIPATE OVER AATER BY THE
24 HOIRS FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HIGHT AT
150610Z2 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

  HN

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