Subject: Indian-S: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In South Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 19 Mar 1999 15:19:43 -0600

999
WTXS34 PGTW 192100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z9 --- NEAR 14.7S2 118.9E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 118.9E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 16.0S7 117.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 17.7S5 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 19.7S7 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 21.7S0 114.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 25.6S3 115.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6  118.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8
KNOTS.  FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME.  TC30S IS BEING
STEERED BY AN ANTI-CYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  IT WILL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTH AS IT FOLLOWS THE FLOW AROUND THIS MID-LEVEL
HIGH.  THIS STEERING WILL BE AUGMENTED BY A MID-LATITUDE WAVE
APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST, FORCING TC30S TO RECURVE INTO THE AUSTRALIAN COAST.
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE AT A NORMAL RATE UNTIL LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200157Z5), 200900Z1 (DTG 200757Z1),
201500Z8 (DTG 201357Z8) AND 202100Z5 (DTG 201957Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

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