Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Oct 1999 13:29:28 -0500

138
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/221800Z/231800Z OCT 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11N2 87.5E0
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N8 85.2E5. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE
LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7S7 75E2 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 9S9 74E1. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER AND
SYNOPTIC DATA SHOW A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONTINUE TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/CANTRELL/JOHNSON/GLASS//

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