Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 5 Feb 1999 13:51:45 -0600

983
WTXS31 PGTW 052100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CT?RHWE=MISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 19.1S1 112.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 112.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 19.2S2 111.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 19.6S6 109.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 19.8S8 108.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 19.9S9 106.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 19.6S6 103.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 112.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HAS MOVED WESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 051730Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES INTERMITTENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. AN EARLIER MICROWAVE PASS (051322Z3) INDICATED
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE
CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TC 18S IS AT THE
TAIL-END OF A SHEARLINE THAT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA. THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING THIS BOUNDARY
ARE CREATING THE WINDSHEAR OVER TC 18S. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. TC 18S IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OUT OF THE STRONG SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 15 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG 060155Z7), 060900Z5 (DTG 060755Z3),
061500Z2 (DTG 061355Z0) AND 062100Z9 (DTG 061955Z6).//

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