Subject: Indian-N: The Southwest Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 20 Oct 1999 07:55:17 -0500

513
WTIO20 FMEE 201126
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  99/10/20 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
 WARNING SUMMARY : NIL

PART 2 :
 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

AN AREA OF CONVECTION ELONGATED LOCATED ON THE CENTER OF  THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN INSIDE A WIDE LOW PRESSURE AERA (BUFFER ZONE) PERSITS.
SINCE YESTERDAY, IT HAS LITTLE MOVED SOUTHWARD AND SPREADS BETWEEN
03 AND 11 SOUTH AND 65 AND 90 EAST. THE CONVECTION, WEAK TO
MODERATE, HAS INCREASED A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, EVEN IF
CLOUDS ARE NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION IS ABOVE ALL IN
VINCITY AT THE EASTERN OF DIEGO-GARCIA, WHERE THE PERTUBATED AREA
IS ASSOCIATED, IN THE LOWER LEVELS, TO A CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WHICH HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WINDS ARE ABOUT
15/20 KT, LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT IN SOUTHERN PART, LOCALLY 30 KT
UNDER THUNDERSQUALLS . MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 1003 HPA.

ALTITUDE ENVIRONMENT IS STABLE WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW,
MODERATE EASTERN OF 75E, AND FASTER WESTERN OF 70E, WHERE SHEARING
REMAINS IMPORTANT.

POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESYS IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN YESTERDAY BUT REMAINS
POOR JUST FOR NOW.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION REMAINS POOR.=

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