Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 1999 12:16:52 -0600

460
ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/311800Z JAN/011800Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311351Z JAN 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310353Z JAN 99//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
NARR/REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N0
91.4E4 AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
SEE REFERENCE B (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 311200Z7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0S8 83.3E4 MOVING WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE
A (WTXS32 311500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7S3
91.6E6 IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING, AND IS
DISCUSSED IN 2.A.(1) ABOVE. SEE REF A (WTXS32 3115000) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 113E5
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S4 112.1E5 SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF JAVA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS ARE WRAPPING TOWARD A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THIS DISTURBANCE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 09 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7S7
50E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 61E7. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT NO APPARENT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1009MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/THOMAS/BROOKS//

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