Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 1 Mar 1999 06:19:21 -0600

640
WTXS21 PGTW 011230
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 011221Z MAR 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 280 NM RADIUS OF 11.1S3 88.1E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 010600Z7 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 88.5E1.  THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION BENEATH A PERSISTENT AND INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MAY ALSO EXIST.
UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR CHARTS INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK WESTWARD VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE
REGION. A 281600Z7 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A NEARLY CLOSED
CIRCULATION WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT
AROUND 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ARE ESTIMATED NEAR
1003 M

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