Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 010

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 26 Jan 1999 21:03:18 -0600

850
WTXS31 PGTW 270300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 010
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- NEAR 14.4S9 93.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 93.5E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 14.1S6 92.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 14.0S5 91.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 14.0S5 90.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 14.1S6 89.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 14.4S9 86.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 93.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS AND HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 262330Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(DAMIEN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.  TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII ARE
ADJUSTED BASED ON 270000Z9 SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA. FUTURE WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED EVERY 06 HOURS, VALID OUT TO 72 HOURS UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (DTG 270757Z8), 271500Z5 (DTG 271357Z5),
272100Z2 (DTG 271957Z1) AND 270300Z2 (DTG 270157Z2). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM.//

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