Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Feb 1999 01:40:58 -0600

351
WTXS31 PGTW 150900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z2 --- NEAR 19.8S8 40.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 40.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 19.0S0 40.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 18.8S7 39.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 40.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON A 150530Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
SHOW TC 21S IS NOW A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH 12
HOURS AND THEN TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO FRICTIONAL SPINDOWN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE
24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150600Z2 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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