Subject: Indian-S: 1. Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 3 Mar 1999 04:23:38 -0600

506
WTXS21 PGTW 031030
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0S3 122.4E9 TO 12.0S3
112.3E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 030830Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 120.5E8.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF A PERSISTENT
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. 030600Z9 SYNOPTIC DATA SUPPORTS A SURFACE
CIRCULATION, WITH ONE SHIP OBSERVATION OF 25 KNOTS (10-MINUTE
AVERAGE) NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. MODERATE SHEAR HAS
DISPLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, INDICATED
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ARE ESTIMATED NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 041030Z8.
//

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