Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 1999 12:40:36 -0600

503
ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071800Z/081800Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071355Z FEB 99//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 4N4 76E3 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 8 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE WINDSHEAR ACROSS
THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 071200Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6S5
108.6E5 DRIFTING WESTWARD AT 2 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 071500Z) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 52E7
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13S4 49E3. THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED, THOUGH 070600Z3 SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS IN THE AREA. INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
OUTFLOW ALOFT APPEARS FAIR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/ROBERTS/MORRIS/BALDINGER/GLASS//

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