Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 022

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 1999 02:26:22 -0600

603
WTXS31 PGTW 300900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 022
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z9 --- NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 16.8S5 78.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 16.7S4 76.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 16.8S5 74.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 80.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HAS MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES OUT OF A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN, THE TRACK CONTINUES MORE WESTWARD UNDER
THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6
(DTG 301957Z5) AND 310900Z3 (DTG 310757Z3).//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCA30890300820

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