Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 17s (chikita) Warning Nr 009a Relocated

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 3 Feb 1999 06:39:51 -0600

925
WTXS32 PGTW 030900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 009A RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 19.7S7 63.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 63.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 19.7S7 58.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 20.1S3 53.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 21.9S2 50.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7   62.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
030830Z4 SATELLITE IMAGERY (KGWC AND FJDG). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING INTENSITY. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S (CHIKITA) HAS BECOME
EXPOSED AND RELOCATED THREE DEGREES WEST OF THE ORIGINAL 030600Z9
WARNING POSITION. THE SYSTEMS REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE ORIGINAL 030600Z9 WARNING. TC 17S (CHIKITA)
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST, WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS. TC 17S (CHIKITA) IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A 35 KNOT WINDFIELD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION EXTENT OF THE WINDFIELD WILL DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. TC 17S (CHIKITA)IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6
(DTG 031951Z9) AND 040900Z3 (DTG 040751Z7).
//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCC12500341226

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