Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1999 22:08:57 -0500

015
WTIO31 PGTW 170300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z8 --- NEAR 17.8N6 85.2E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N6 85.2E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 18.5N4 84.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 19.3N3 83.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 20.2N4 82.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.0N9 84.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS, APPROXIMATELY 65 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF INDIA, AND
HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THEREFORE, AN
ADDITIONAL WARNING HAS BEEN GENERATED FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 162330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS AND A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING
MISSION (TRMM) PASS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALL, TIGHT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A COMPACT 5 NM EYE.
THE TRMM PASS SHOWS A BANDING FEATURE COMPLETELY ENCLOSING THE EYE.
ANOTHER STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND IS SITUATED WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
THE VORTEX. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOW
SITUATED OVER THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 8 TO 1O HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. AFTER LANDFALL,
THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170000Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3),
172100Z1 (DTG 171953Z6).//
BT
#0001

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