Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 24 Dec 1999 12:55:42 -0600

234
ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/241800Z/251800Z DEC 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240230 DEC 99/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S7
75.5E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13S4 71.3E1, SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, IS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF A (WTXS21
PGTW 240230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CAN
BE DISCERNED WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE 241200Z9 UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8
92.0E1 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY, SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE 241200Z9 SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A BROAD LLCC MAY BE FORMING WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH
LOCATED BENEATH THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/MAYER/TON//
BT
?XXXX

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