Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Mar 1999 02:08:04 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 260900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z4 --- NEAR 13.0S4 116.2E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 116.2E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 13.9S3 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 14.7S2 113.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 15.4S0 111.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 15.9S5 108.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 15.9S5 103.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S HAS DEVELOPED OFF NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA AND HAS
TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 260530Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25
KNOTS). DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
AROUND THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT IN RECENT
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 31S HAS TRACKED UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AND IS MOVING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 72 HOUR
FORECAST AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE WEST. TC 31S IS CURRENTLY
WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260600Z4 IS 9 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN 260121Z2 MAR 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 260130). NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261351Z8),
262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4), 270300Z2 (DTG 270151Z6) AND 270900Z8
(DTG 270751Z2).//

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