Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s (frederic) Warning Nr 010

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 28 Mar 1999 19:41:04 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 290300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z1 --- NEAR 15.6S2 104.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 15.6S2 104.7E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 15.8S4 102.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 16.2S9 100.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 16.6S3 98.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 17.2S0 96.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 104.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS SOUTH OF JAVA. THE WARNING POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 282330Z8 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 31S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS
DIVERGENCE CHARTS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN ALL
QUADRANTS, WHICH CAN BE A PRECURSOR TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THUS,
TC 31S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND
THEN INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER RATE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7
(DTG 291351Z1) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300151Z0).//

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