Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropic>? Qd:t1=nhe Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 Jan 1999 12:28:53 -0600

999
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPIC>? QD:T1=NHE INDIAN
OCEAN/171800Z/181800Z JAN 99//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171353Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF A/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 171200Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.3S9 38.6E7 MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS.
SEE REFERENCE A (WTXS31 171500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22S4 113E5
ON THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9 61E7
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. 171200Z1
SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THIS AREA IS LOCATED WITHIN A PORTION
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST, WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4 79E6
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9S9 72E9 IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA ANALYSIS INDICATE A
SMALL LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MONSOONAL TROUGH
CONVERGENCE GENERATING PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
FOR 24
HOURS NEAR 7S7 100E1 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN, AND
HAS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (5) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 12 HOURS NEAR 9S9
50E5 NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. THIS CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT
IN 171200Z1 SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (6) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/PARKER/JACKSON//

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