Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Mar 1999 13:03:31 -0600

999
ABIO10 PGTW 181800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/181800Z/191800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180753 MAR 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181355 MAR 99//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181357 MAR 99//
NARR/REF A, B, AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8N8 65E1
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 180600Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.6S6 110.7E9 AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32
PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 181200Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2
73.4E4 AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW
181500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) AT 181200Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S6 124.3E0 AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTXS34
PGTW 181500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11S2 58E3
5E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 62.3E1. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DETERIORATED. THE CONVECTION IN THE
AREA IS STILL SIGNIFICANT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1
95.5E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 90.0E9. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED IN A STRONG MONSOON TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 100.0E1 AND
HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 24 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED
IN A STRONG MONSOON DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION, 180000Z9 SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING BENEATH
THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: TO CHANGE THE VALID TIMES IN THE
SUBJ LINE.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/NORDMAN/LAFRAMBOISE/PARKER/JACKSON//
BT
#XXXX

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