Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 Dec 1999 11:16:53 -0600

472
ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/111800Z/121800Z DEC 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102051 DEC 99/
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110753 DEC 99/
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110451 DEC 99/
NARR/REFS A AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.
REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 10.6N7 84.3E5 IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N9 85.4E7 AND REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). A 111225Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I) DEPICTS ISOLATED CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC DATA CONFIRMS
A DEFINED LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW
102100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 110600Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ILSA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
10.9S0 100.2E3 AND WAS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. SEE
REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 110900 COR) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5
119.0E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4 120.3E6 AND REMAINS THE SUBJECT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF B). ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. SYNOPTIC DATA REVEALS A LLCC WITH STRONGER
WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 200 MB AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR
CHARTS INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1003 MB. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW
110500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2
99.1E9 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA.
2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/MORRIS/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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