Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 Oct 1999 14:58:18 -0500

153
WTIO31 PGTW 172100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z7 --- NEAR 19.2N2 84.7E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N2 84.7E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 20.2N4 84.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 21.2N5 84.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.5N5 84.7E9.
AT 171730Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B MADE LANDFALL, ABOUT 10 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BRAHMAPUR PACKING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS. TC 04B HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS OVER THE ORISSA COAST. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 171730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. THE WIND RADII HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I)
PASS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TC 04B HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD OVER LAND IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER NORTHERN INDIA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH UNDER THE POLEWARD FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 04B SHOULD
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4).//
BT
#0001

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