Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Oct 1999 12:36:41 -0500

028
ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/251800Z/261800Z OCT 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N0
98.2E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N2 96.0E5 IN THE ANDAMAN SEA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED ORGANIZATION
OF CONVECTION AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA ALSO INDICATES SLOWLY FALLING
PRESSURES NEAR THE LLCC. SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND UW CIMSS SHEAR
CHARTS INDICATE A LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WITH FAIR OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7
68.5E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4 68E4, SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA.
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLUCTUATING CONVECTION NEARBY. THIS AREA HAS PERSISTED
FOR OVER A WEEK, BUT CONVECTION HAS FAILED TO PERSIST FOR LONGER
THAN 18 HOURS DURING EACH FLARE UP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4
62.5E3 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/JEDLICK/HERRON/JACKSON/TON//

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