Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Mar 1999 19:11:58 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 122100 COR
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 025A CORRECTED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 22.8S2 52.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 22.8S2 52.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 22.7S1 52.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 22.6S0 52.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.8S2  52.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 121730Z4 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TC 25S IS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER WEAK LOW LEVEL
STEERING. HOWEVER, TC 25S CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING OVER WATER. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 25S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS
TC 25S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 14 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION IS TO ADD NEXT WARNING REFERENCES IN
THE FOLLOWING SENTENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9), AND 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
BT
#0025

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