Subject: Indian-N: 010353(

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 1999 02:27:29 -0600

741
WTIO21 PGTW 010400
SUBPXTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
010353(
 3? 199//
43/E/RMG/NAVPAMETOCCEN PEAR  -4?94  8/310353Z JN KBOXX
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ART (WTIO21 PGTW 310400)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO IMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. STJMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIOLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N4 90.0E9 TO 13.5N9 83.7E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.-AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
LISSU
ANCE OF NUMBEHED TRTPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ERE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 59 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT -12330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULETION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3NW OMPE7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR

 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WINF SHEAR

PERSISTS OVER THIS DISTUROANCE. HOWEVERPN A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
N
CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO GENERATE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.

IF VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS, THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHZR ORGANIZATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELO WITHIN
R HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
4. THISNALE VALID UNTIL 020400Z6.//

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