Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 12s (alda) Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 Jan 1999 01:32:46 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 162100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- NEAR 22.7S1 40.8E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S1 40.8E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 24.7S3 41.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 27.1S0 41.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 29.7S8 44.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 31.9S3 48.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 40.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 161731Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). 160701Z5
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES 30 TO 35 KNOT SURFACE WINDS CONVERGING
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. TC 12S (ALDA) IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND COMPLETE TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO INCREASED TRANSLATIONAL SPEED, THEN
WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. WIND RADII ARE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM 160701Z5 SCATTEROMETER DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 16 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 161051Z JAN 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 161100) FUTURE WARNINGS WILL COMMENCE AT 170300Z1
(DTG 170153Z7) AND 171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCA28320170725

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