Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Feb 1999 11:06:02 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

853
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/221800Z/231800Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
 (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22S4 37E0
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE OF MOZAMBIQUE INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A PASSING
SHEAR LINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
       (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19S0
119E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22S4 123.5E1. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER INLAND. THE SYSTEM IS NOW ABOUT 150NM INLAND OVER THE
GREAT SANDY DESERT. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER, IT IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 (3) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
76E3 IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. AS SUCH, IT IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
       (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5S5 58E3
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AS SUCH, IT IS NO
LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
       (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/WAKEHAM/MORRIS/GLASS//
BT
#7790

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