Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Feb 1999 02:04:28 -0600

894
WTXS31 PGTW 080800
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 19.0S0 107.6E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 107.6E4
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 19.1S1 107.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATQNG AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 19.1S1 106.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT:,275 DEG/ 05 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 19.0S0 105.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0  107.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON 080530Z6
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, LOW LEVEL CLOUD DRIFT WIND SPEED, AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 18S REAINS WITHIN THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE

 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THERE APPEARS TO BE NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS, THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
STILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT. THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS CONTINUED TO BROADEN AND WEAKEN. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE WEST, EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO A STRONGER
WESTWARD STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE 12 TO 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
MIXING WITH COLD AIR STRATUS AND ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
IS FORECASTED CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
FINALLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4
(DTG 081355Z2), 082100Z1 (DTG 081955Z, 090300Z2 (DTG 090155Z0)
AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090755Z6).
//
BT
?7674

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