Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Mar 1999 11:38:14 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/061800Z/071800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061353 MAR 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061421 MAR 99//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 12 HOURS NEAR 4N4
87E5 IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DEEP CONVECTION, BUT NO LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 061200Z9 SYNOPTIC AND SHIP DATA INDICATE
A BROAD, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION BUT NO DISTINCT LLCC IS
DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 061200Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S1 76.3E6 AND WAS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 061200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
110.0E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 101.7E9 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 061430)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/ROBERTS/MORRIS/BALDINGER//

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