Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 21 Apr 1999 21:08:01 -0500

999
WTXS31 PGTW 220300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z4 --- NEAR 16.5S2 88.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 88.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 18.1S0 87.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 19.8S8 86.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 21.2S5 84.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 21.9S2 82.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6   88.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 33S (HAMISH) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 5 KNOTS SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 212330Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS (210350Z1)
OF 45 KNOTS. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TC HAMISH HAS BECOME A
PARITIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NORTHWEST OF
THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR CHARTS INDICATE TC 33S IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY
HIGHER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. TC HAMISH IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING AND IS BEING STEERED AT THE LOWER LEVELS AS IT
BECOMES SHEARED. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 33S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z0 (DTG 221351Z4) AND
230300Z8 (DTG 230151Z2).//
BT
#0001

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