Subject: Indian-S: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 4 Apr 1999 00:47:11 -0600

999
WTXS21 PGTW 040630
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S0 124.3E0 TO 13.5S9
116.3E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 040530Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 123.3E9.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC ROTATION OF THE AREA IS EVIDENT IN
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC DATA HAS ALSO
SUGGESTED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION. THE AREA IS WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR AND DIRECTLY BENEATH THE AXIS OF THE 200MB RIDGE. THIS HAS
PROVIDED IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS IS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 050630Z4.//

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