Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 1 Apr 1999 19:49:18 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 020300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 018
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z2 --- NEAR 18.6S5 87.2E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 18.6S5 87.2E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 18.9S8 86.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 19.2S2 85.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 19.4S4 84.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 19.6S6 83.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6  86.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 012330Z9 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 100 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TC 31S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT USING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
UNDERGO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HENCE, THE INTEGRATION OF
VISUAL IMAGERY IN THE NEXT WARNING MAY LEAD TO A RELOCATION OF THE
FORECAST TO THE EAST IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEING SHEARED
AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AS IT DIGS INTO A RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS
SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2) AND 030300Z6
(DTG 030151Z0).//
BT
#0018

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