Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s (frederic-evrina) Warning Nr 025

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 5 Apr 1999 09:12:31 -0500

999
WTXS31 PGTW 051500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 025
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z8 --- NEAR 19.0S0 69.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 69.7E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 19.1S1 67.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 19.7S7 65.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 20.6S8 62.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 22.0S4 60.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0   69.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 31S HAS RAPIDLY SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLCC) AND FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD DURING THE INITIAL 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE
MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSING THE TRACK TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 31S
(FREDERIC-EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER WATER,
FINALLY DISSIPATING BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061351Z6). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

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