Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 1999 22:24:49 -0600

467
WTXS31 PGTW 280300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z0 --- NEAR 22.3S7 40.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S7 40.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 23.1S6 41.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 24.1S7 41.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 24.9S5 41.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 25.8S5 41.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 22.5S9  40.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON 272330Z7 INFRARED AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TC 23S HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NO
LONGER EVIDENT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INDICATES TWO POSSIBLE LLCCS. AS VISIBLE
IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE, RELOCATION OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH AND WINDSHEAR CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY.
 TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AFTER 24HRS, TC 23S SHOULD BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN,
TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL
 WINDSHEAR AND BEGIN WEAKENING. WIND RADII ARE NOT
INCLUDED FOR SYSTEMS LESS THAN 40 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS
10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6
(DTG 281351Z0) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8). REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GITA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#XXXX

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.