Subject: Indian-N: Immediate Delivery Req To Amconsul Calcutta And Amembassy Dhaka

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Oct 1999 09:18:45 -0500

614
WTIO31 PGTW 281500
SUBJ:   TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 006
      01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
        ---
      WARNING POSITION:
      281200Z3 --- NEAR 18.6N5 87.7E2
          MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
          POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
          POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
      PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
      RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
      RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                                        050 NM
ELSEWHERE
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
                                                        100 NM
ELSEWHERE
      REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N5 87.7E2
        ---
      FORECASTS:
      12 HRS, VALID AT:
      290000Z1 --- 19.6N6 86.8E2
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
      RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
      RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
                                                        050 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
                                                        100 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
      VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
      24 HRS, VALID AT:
      291200Z4 --- 21.3N6 86.5E9
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
      RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
                                                        030 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
                                                        060 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
      VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
      36 HRS, VALID AT:
      300000Z3 --- 23.2N7 88.1E7
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
      BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
      RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
                                                        045 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
                                                        100 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
        ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.9N8 87.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 05B IS NOW
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 AND 140 KNOTS. TC 05B REMAINS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK

MORE NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AT APPROXIMATELY 290400Z5, TC 05B IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL 40 NM EAST OF CUTTACK, INDIA. TC 05B IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, BUT AS TC 05B TRACKS MORE
NORTHWARD ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. ALSO AS IT MOVES INLAND IT WILL PICK
UP JET SUPPORT, WHICH WILL SERVE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8) AND

291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1).//

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