Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Nov 1999 11:44:18 -0600

060
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/121800Z/131800Z NOV 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N4
86.5E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N5 86.7E1, ABOUT 315 NM EAST OF SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
(SSM/I) PASS DEPICT SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CHART INDICATES A MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6S6 76E3 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6S1 75.6E8, ABOUT 240 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN SSM/I PASS DEPICT CONVECTION
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE. SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEFINED LLCC. 200 MB CHART INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/MORRIS/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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