Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 1999 11:23:33 -0600

584
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/041800Z/051800Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040753Z FEB 99//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040751Z FEB 99//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040255Z FEB 99//
NARR/REF A AND REF B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 040600Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N8
84.1E3 MOVING NORTH AT 02 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE A
(WTIO31 040900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6N6
65E1 HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 040600Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.9S8 55.6E6 MOVING WEST AT 24 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE B
(WTXS32 040900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
     (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16S7
117E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S3 118.7E7 NEAR BARROW ISLAND OFF
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THIS AREA IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF C (WTIO21 PGTW 040300Z)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8S8 66E2
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9S9 66E2. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HAS REMAINED
INTACT BUT HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE AREA HAS MOVED INTO
A PORTION OF MONSOON TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN, AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/THOMAS/BROOKS//

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