Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 1999 11:01:33 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

219
ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/241800Z/251800Z JAN 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241357Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5N5 78E5
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR. ANIMATED
CONSIDERABLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 241200Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.7S3 100.0E1 MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE
REFERENCE A (WTXS31 241500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA
NEAR 5S5 97E6 AND HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 8 HOURS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9
65E1 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSUPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/HERRON/HOWELLS/GLASS//
BT
#7570

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