Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Feb 1999 19:57:37 -0600

825
WTXS31 PGTW 150300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z6 --- NEAR 21.4S7 40.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 40.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 20.6S8 40.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 20.3S5 39.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 20.3S5 38.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.2S5 40.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE REMAINING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DISSIPATED DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. 141820Z6 MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL WELL-WRAPPED. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 142030Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO FRICTIONAL SPINDOWN AND
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150000Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 (DTG 150753Z1),
151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8), 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4) AND 160300Z0 (DTG
160153Z6).//
BT
#0007

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