Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 2 Mar 1999 11:14:19 -0600

691
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020551 MAR 99/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 4N4 82E0 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MAY EXIST BENEATH
THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5N5 76E3
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 020600Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6S5
89.6E3 AND REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
020600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13S4 126E9
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11S2 127E0 SOUTH OF TIMOR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 24 HOURS NEAR
24S6 50E5 SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE
REGION. SYNOPTIC AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE REMNANTS OF TC 23S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/JOHNSON/BALDINGER//

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