Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 22 Apr 1999 12:27:07 -0500

999
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/221800Z/231800Z APR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACTMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351Z APR 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N7 80.5E3 IS NOW LOCATED 12N3 80.5E3, JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
MOVING OVER SOUTHERN INDIA TOWARDS THE ARABIAN SEA. THE 221200Z7
SURFACE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS STILL SUPPORTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA, ALTHOUGH ALL THE CONVECTION IS WELL
WEST OF THE LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR PRODUCT CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AS THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TOWARDS THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN INDIA AND IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N9 75.5E. AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
ARABIAN SEA IT COULD RE-DEVELOP A LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 221200Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0S8 86.9E3 AND WAS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/JOHNSON/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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