Subject: Indian-N: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 Dec 1999 19:34:27 -0600

999
WTIO21 PGTW 040030
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N7 54.7E6 TO 10.3N4 51.6E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 032330Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.5N6 54.0E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N1
57.9E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N9 54.4E3, SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF
SOCOTRA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS AND
ANIMATED
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT THE SYSTEM IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 050030Z8.//

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