Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 1 Jan 1999 17:32:15 -0600

999
ABIO10 PGTW 011800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/011800Z/021800Z JAN 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N3
79.5E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4N4 70E7. SYNOPTIC DATA AND ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THIS CONVECTION WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION APPEARS
TO HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED
OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA AND APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 58E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S1 54E9. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, 011200Z4 SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS AND AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
PASS SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 20S2 35E8 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS. THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AREA
IS LOCATED NEAR ZIMBABWE  AND MOZAMBIQUE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER
THE AREA. PRESENTLY, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER
MOZAMBIQUE, BUT DRIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
ONCE OUT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (IN 24-36
HRS), THIS SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(JTWC) HAS SHIFTED OPERATIONS TO THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY
AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NPMOC) PEARL HARBOR, HI. PRODUCT
DISSEMINATION IS THROUGH THE FOLLOWING METHODS:
    A. AUTODIN FROM NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//JTWC//=
    B. NIPRNET WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.NPMOC.NAVY.MIL (LOWER CASE).
PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE AT OUR OLD SITE,
HTTP://NPMOCW.NAVY.MIL/NPMOCW/PRODS/JTWC.HTML (LOWER CASE) FOR A
LIMITED TIME.
    C. SIPRNET WEBSITE: 198.97.106.240. PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO BE
AVAILABLE AT 206.36.192.40 FOR A LIMITED TIME.
    D. AUTOMATED WEATHER NETWORK (AWN): ALL BULLETIN HEADERS AND
TIMES REMAIN UNCHANGED. AS OF 1 JANUARY, NEW CONTACT NUMBERS FOR
THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER (TDO) ARE (A) 474-2320 (C) 808-474-2320.
JTWC LOOKS FORWARD TO PROVIDING THE SAME LEVEL OF PROFESSIONAL
METOC SUPPORT TO ALL OUR CUSTOMERS FROM OUR NEW VENUE.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: TO ADD PLA.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/PARSONS/HERRON/BALDINGER//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCC00370012239

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