Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 1999 03:28:08 -0600

702
WTXS31 PGTW 300900 COR
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WARNING NR 022A CORRECTED

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z9 --- NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 16.8S5 72.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SPGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
   24 HR, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 16.74 76;3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED W
DS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 16.8S5 74.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KV
 , DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL VLONE OVER WATAR
REMARKS:
300900Z+ POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 80.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HASPMOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WI  SHEAR FRM THE NORTHEAST
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST=
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEX12 HOURS AS IT MOVES OUT OF A WEAKNESS IN

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN, THE TRACK CONTINUES MORE WESTWARD UNDER

THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENC OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS

SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE

PREVIOUS WARNING AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
302100Z6 (DTG 301957Z5) AND 340900Z3 (DTG GEQPUTUZ3)=
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTC RECT NAME CIXNAUVAWVLINE
AUXX
BT
?0001

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