Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Mar 1999 08:54:16 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 061500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
 ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z9 --- NEAR 15.5S1 76.3E6
  MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION AC UATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 76.3E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 16.3S0 73.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 16.9S6 70.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 17.5S3 68.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 18.1S0 65.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 19.5S5 61.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 75.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS AND IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED, MOSTLY CLOUD
FILLED EYE AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM
SLIGHTLY. 060522Z5 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 061130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90
KNOTS) AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S
(DAVINA) IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC AND
STATISTICAL OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS TRACK
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061200Z9 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4),
070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6), 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2) AND 071500Z3 (DTG
071353Z9).//
BT
#0001

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