Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 30 Mar 1999 07:51:20 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 301500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z6 --- NEAR 17.1S9 96.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 96.0E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 17.1S9 93.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 17.8S6 90.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 18.8S7 88.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 20.0S2 86.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9   95.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED TOWARD THE WEST AT 13
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
301130Z8 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS). TC 31S
(FREDERIC) HAS REMAINED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE SYSTEMS TRACK AS TC 31S (FREDERIC) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 31S (FREDERIC) HAS RETAINED A
WELL DEFINED EYE AND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR IS THEN FORECAST TO MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION, AND EVEN SLOWLY BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z6 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310151Z1) AND
311500Z0 (DTG 311351Z4).
//
BT
#0001

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.