Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 4 Feb 1999 14:15:59 -0600

404
WTXS31 PGTW 042000
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 17.9S7 116.0E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 116.0E8
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 18.4S3 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 195 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/,07 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 18.8S7 112.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            165 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 19.1S1 111.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 220 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 19.4S4 110.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 230 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            175 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 19.7S7 107.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 235 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            180 NM ELSEWHERE
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 115.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 09 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORMING OVER THIS DISTURBANCE, WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS ZXCEPT THE EAST WHERE IT IS FAIR.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF AUSTRALIA.
THE WNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 041730Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
040202Z8 SCATTEROMETER DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. AFTER 24 HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY
IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMNTAL CONDITIONS AND DECREASINX VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 040202Z8
SCATTEROMETER PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS
14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 040255Z FEB 99
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 040300). FUTURE
WARNINGS WILL BE PROVIDED 06-HOURLY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050155Z6), 050900Z4 (DTG 050755Z2),
051500Z1 (DTG 051355Z9) AND 052100Z8 (DTG 051955Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.//

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