Subject: Indian-S: L Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Jan 1999 09:16:56 -0600

278
WTXS31 PGTW 281500
SUBJ:  TROPI
L CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONL15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 016 0
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 16.8S5 89.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGEES AT 10 KTE
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF VZO KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWVERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 1/.8S5 89.1E8
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 17.6S4 87.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM E-32#343
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG 10 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200NKBMMBIOS7 85.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINEDWINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065    4-$87- ./#035 KT WINDS -
 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
      #00                   130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 17.9S7 83.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 17.8S6 80.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 ;4 09-85: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z78--- 17.5S3 76.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE    PPN
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 88.6E2.
TROPICAT CYCLONE 15S (DAMIENKBHAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY (50
KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF TT KNOTS

AND 45 KNOTS. VBLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 50NM NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION.
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS TC 15S HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
AMUT 60NM FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS. TC 15S (DEOIEN)

IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDVKPRIN TO THE SOUTH OF TC 15S. THOUGH OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD
ON THE WESTERN SIDE, MODERATE VRTICAL WINDEHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM
WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENTAND BEGIN TO WEAKEOVA SYSTEM
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281200Z3 IS 20 FEETLGOJY OO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS JOPUVVQQZ3 (DTG 281957Z2),
290300Z4 (DTG 290157
4), 290900Z0 (DTG 290757Z0) AND 292500Z7 (DTG
291357Z7).//

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