Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s (frederic) Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 28 Mar 1999 07:40:10 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 281500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 15.6S2 106.8E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 106.8E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 16.4S1 104.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 17.3S1 102.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 17.8S6 99.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 18.3S2 97.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4  106.3E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S
(FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS SOUTH OF JAVA. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
UPON 281130Z5 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TC 31S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INCREASES ITS DISTANCE FROM THE SHEAR LINE TO
THE SOUTH EAST AND MOVES INTO A LOWER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS RETURNED UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION.
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE FOR A STANDARD RATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290151Z8) AND 291500Z7 (DTG 291351Z1).//
BT
#0009

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