Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 1999 15:09:14 -0600

088
WTXS32 PGTW 012100
SQBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WCWNG
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
R1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 1
7FN(CHIKITA) WARNINL NR 00)
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX FUSTAINED AINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
0   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 19.4S4 75.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESEQT WIND DIUTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINEDWINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS 90 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWMERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19;4S4 75.9E1
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS,-VALID AT:
   010600Z8 --- 19.6S6 73.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POWT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
   24 HRS, VLID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 20.0S2 70.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 20.1S3 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
   EXOUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 20.1S3 65.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATERM
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.51-5 75.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASEON 011730Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY (40
KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SHIP REPORTS TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATES TC 17S HAS BEGUN TO
SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS WINDSHEAG REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE AREA.

EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE

A FAIRLY LARGE AND ASYMMETRICAL WINDFIELD ON THE SOHERN HALF. TC
17S IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINAT STEERING FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPCAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AS TC 18S CONTINUES TO GET SHEARED,
IT WILL COME UNDER THE PRIMARYNSTEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TC 17S IS THUS FORECAST TOPONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THELLOW-MID LEVEL FLOW OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MODE
TE VERTICAL WIDSVEAR ACROSS
THE SYSTEM WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOVMEVT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE

SYSTEM THOUGHOUT THE FOEC
TT H
T
WM THE FORECAST 35 KNOT WIND
RADII IS OMITTED AFTER THE 12 HOUR POSITION SINCE OAX WINDS ARE ONLY

FORECAST TO BE 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0

IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
RINFORMAT
ION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 02090Z1 (DTG 020751Z5) AND 02270#Z5
951Z8).//

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