Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Mar 1999 02:04:11 -0600

999
WTXS32 PGTW 130900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WARNING NR 026
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z0 --- NEAR 22.2S6 52.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 52.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 22.2S6 53.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 22.7S1 53.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 22.2S6 52.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 KTS OFF
THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 130530Z2 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND A 35 KNOT SHIP REPORT 120 NM
TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 25S
IS A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ALL OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A
MODERATELY TIGHT WRAPPING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A
CYCLONIC PATH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL STEERING.
IT CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUES
TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
TC 25S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS TC 25S IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  27P (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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