Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 12s (alda) Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 1999 21:34:45 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 170300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z8 --- NEAR 23.3S8 40.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S8 40.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 24.7S3 40.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 26.6S4 41.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 29.6S7 42.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 23.7S2 40.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 162331Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS DISSIPATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER AND NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 12S (ALDA) IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO INCREASED
TRANSLATIONAL SPEED, THEN WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG
171353Z0) AND 180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(DANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCC09660170327

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