Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 11:54:34 -0600

133
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/231800Z/241800Z DEC 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8
77.0E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S7 75.5E7, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 231312Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND FORMING SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS CHARTS
INDICATE THAT THE AREA IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 12 HOURS NEAR
8.0S8 92.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH. A PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATES TROUGHING BUT NO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPARENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/BRANDON/GLASS//

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