Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Mar 1999 12:20:24 -0600

999
ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/101800Z/111800Z MAR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100753 MAR 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 100600Z5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.7S0 55.7E7 AND WAS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7S7 51E6 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6S6 53E8 NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
DRIFTING WESTWARD. ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
MINIMUM VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 13S4 72E9, AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S. SATELLITE
ANIMATION SHOWS THIS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (DAVINA).
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION NEAR THE EASTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE WINDSHEAR WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS
FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/ROBERTS/MORRIS/BROOKS//

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