Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 1999 03:09:03 -0600

775
WTXS32 PGTW 310900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
   02 ACTILE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   310600Z0 --- NEAR 16.3S0 85.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 85.4E7
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 16.8S5 82.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUSNOF 035 KT WINDS - 070 /,. -975# -3.8:84:)3
   0                        055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KS
   24 64-, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 17.3S1 79.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 17.6S4 76.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   JADIUSHMF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 17.4S2 73.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDN- 155 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 1(558,$- - 015#NM
MGL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 N
M SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            0
5 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR PMSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 17.3S1 68.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                2       -   100 NM ELSEWHERE
REMARKS:
310900Z- POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 84.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF
TC 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IN THE SOUTX INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON 310530Z2 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY

 ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AUGMENTED BY 35 KNOT SHIP SYNOPTIC REPORTS.
 POSITION RELOCATION IS DUE TO THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF VISIBLE
 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED ORGANIZATION, WITH
MULTIPLE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
 IS FAIR TO THE NORTHEAST, AND GOOD SOUTHWARD. THE WIND FIELD
 IS ASYMMETRICAL, WITIPGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
 SEMICIRCLE DUE TO TRANSLATIONAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, AND
 LOCATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS
 INTO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH. BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS, THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD COURSE AS
IT MOVES OUT OF THE WEAKNESS. TC 17S IS
 EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A WEAK TO
 MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER
 TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 (DTG 311351Z4), 312100Z7 (DTG 311951Z0),
010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8) AND 010900Z0 (DTG 010751Z4). REFER TO
 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW)
 FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
BT
?0001

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