Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 23s Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 27 Feb 1999 08:07:42 -0600

681
WTXS31 PGTW 271500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z2 --- NEAR 21.4S7 38.5E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 21.4S7 38.5E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 22.1S5 39.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 22.9S3 40.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 23.7S2 41.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 24.5S1 41.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.6S9 38.7E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 6 KNOTS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
271130Z4 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 23S HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S APPEARS TO BE
EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE TRACKING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
 ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HENCE,
TC 23S IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12
 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
 WIND RADII ARE NOT INCLUDED FOR SYSTEMS LESS THAN 40 KNOTS.
 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 10 FEET. THIS
 WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
 261821Z FEB 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 261830) NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3
(DTG 280151Z7) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0).//
BT
#0001

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