Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 26s Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Mar 1999 01:46:29 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 080900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 15.5S1 92.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 92.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 16.6S3 89.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 17.0S8 86.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 17.4S2 83.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 17.6S4 80.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 18.1S0 75.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 91.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SYMMETRICAL MASS OF CONVECTION ABOUT 250NM BY
250NM. A 071636Z3 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 35KTS WITHIN THE
CONVECTION, BUT NO EVIDENCE OF ANY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE WARNING POSITION, BUT STILL NO LLCC
DEVELOPMENT.  VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT IN THE
IMAGERY ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHILE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED.
A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM, AND COLD AIR FROM THIS AREA IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM. THE WARNING INTENSITY (35 KTS) IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE SCATTEROMETER PASS.
TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 26S IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY
THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE WINDSHEAR AND COLDER AIR BEING
ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 26S SHOULD DEVELOP AT A NORMAL RATE
AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AN AVERAGE SIZED TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081351Z8), 082100Z1 (DTG
081951Z4), 090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

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