Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 11:54:53 -0600

259
ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/101800Z/111800Z NOV 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6N2
86.3E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7N7 86E4, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF
SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
HOWEVER, CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC IS SPARSE AND CONFINED WEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR CHARTS
INDICATE THAT THE AREA IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 200 MB
CHART SHOWS THAT THE AREA IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 8S8 76E3,
APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED IN A BROAD TROUGH. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL
SHEAR CHART INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/THOMAS/JACKSON//
BT
#XXXX

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