Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 15 Apr 1999 12:34:49 -0500

999
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z APR 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 12 HOURS NEAR
13N4 83E1 IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG CONVECTION WITH A HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD OBSCURING THE
LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER, 1512000Z9 SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AN 141645Z1
SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
PRESENT BENEATH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE
THE AREA IS IN A MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
SUMATRA NEAR 9S9 84E2 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. HOWEVER, 151200Z9 SYNOPTIC DATA REVEALS A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH THE CONVECTION, AND THE UW-CIMSS
WINDSHEAR PRODUCT SHOWS A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/LAFRAMBOISE/BALDINGER//

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