Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 012

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 1999 07:33:39 -0600

354
WTXS31 PGTW 271500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 012
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z2 --- NEAR 14.5S0 92.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 92.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 14.6S1 91.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 14.7S2 90.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 14.7S2 89.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 14.7S2 88.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 14.6S1 85.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 92.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED
271130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 60KNOTS. ANIMATED
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) CONTINUES
 TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 700 MB RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
700 MB RIDGE, WHICH MAY DRIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD DIP IN THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 HOWEVER, THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS THE 700 MB RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 15S (DAMIEN) BY THE 24 HOUR
 FORECAST POSITION, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. HENCE, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED, CONTINUING
THE WESTWARD TRACK. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
 BUT THE CONVECTION IS NOW SHEARED ONLY 30 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
 IS NOW GOOD TO THE NORTHWEST AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. HENCE THE FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS 55 TO 65 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
 WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG 271957Z1), 280300Z3 (DTG 280157Z3),
280900Z9 (DTG 280757Z9) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281357Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

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