Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Feb 1999 13:59:44 -0600

459
WTXS31 PGTW 132100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- NEAR 23.1S6 37.9E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 37.9E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 24.5S1 38.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 25.8S5 38.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 27.6S5 38.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 29.9S0 39.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 34.0S7 44.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 23.4S9 37.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND IS GOOD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST, FAIR ELSEWHERE. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35
KNOTS AUGMENTED BY 131525Z7 MICROWAVE DATA. THE MICROWAVE DATA
SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS UNDER THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING
PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER 36 HOURS, THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 21S IS
ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS A MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND BEGINS TO TRANSIT
COOLER WATER. WIND RADII AFTER 36 HOURS ARE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THE EFFECTS OF SYSTEM MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4),
140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0), 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7) AND 142100Z8 (DTG
141953Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCB15920441950

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