Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Feb 1999 12:04:17 -0600

249
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150753Z FEB 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4N4 95E4
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7N7 88E6. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION REMAINS SPORADIC WITHIN A MODERATE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, 150600Z2 SHIP SYNOPTIC
DATA INDICATES A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST WEST OF
THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS NEAR 4S4 75E2. THIS CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10-15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.8S2
39.6E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S8 40.7E1 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE REF A (WTXS31
150900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ALONG 4S4 FROM
40E4 TO 60E6, EAST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA, IS NOW NEAR 7S7 55E0.
HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SPORADIC AS THE SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. SINCE NO LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS HAVE FORMED BENEATH THE CONVECTION, THIS AREA IS NO
LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PARSONS/HERRON/BALDINGER//

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