Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 30s (vance) Warning Nr 011

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 Mar 1999 10:24:13 -0600

999
WTXS34 PGTW 210900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z9 --- NEAR 18.6S5 114.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 114.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 20.3S5 114.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 22.4S8 113.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 25.0S7 114.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 28.1S1 116.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 114.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR
THE SYSTEM REMAIN AT T6.5 (125 KNOTS). THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS WARNINGS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 30S (VANCE) IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AND MOVE INLAND. THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR OFF THE CONTINENT, INHIBITING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TC 30S (VANCE) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT A
RELATIVELY STEADY INTENSITY DURING THE INITIAL 12 HOURS, THEN
SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN,
FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 30 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
211500Z9 (DTG 211357Z9), 212100Z6 (DTG 211957Z5), 220300Z7 (DTG
220157Z7) AND 220900Z3 (DTG 220757Z3).//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.