Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Feb 1999 10:33:18 -0600

627
ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/201800Z/211800Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8N8
78E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7N7 74E1, JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME INTERMITTENT OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
 (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19S0 116E8
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18S9 119E1. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INTERMITTENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM
AND DISSIPATE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE AREA IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
 (2) A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10S1 80E8.
MINIMAL CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE AREA, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE
ANIMATION SHOWS A DISTINCT CIRCULATION. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/HERRON/HOWELLS//
BT
#7779

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.