Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 1999 18:42:50 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

866
ABIO10 PGTW 240000 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/240000Z/241800Z JAN 99 AMENDED//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231357Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5N5 78E5
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD, DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION. A 231731Z7
SCATTEROMETER IMAGE INDICATED TWO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS, ONE NEAR
5.5N0 79.5E1 AND THE OTHER NEAR 2N2 80.5E3, ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
TO MODERATE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 231200Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WAS LOCATED NEAR 14S5
104.5E0 MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE A (WTXS31
231500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
70E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 69E5. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10S1 133E7
HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND IS NOW A SUSPECT AREA ON THE ABPW10 PGTW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADE 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/HERRON/HOWELLS/GLASS//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCC08880240033

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