Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 012

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 1999 10:21:04 -0600

403
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED O  -MINUTE AVERAOE
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 18.6S5 108.6>5
     MOVEMEN PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEOREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
  -PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   OAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 108.6E5
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 18.8S7 0 8.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT T
THICAL CYCLONE OV WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 18.9S8 107.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WIFDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 18.8S7 105.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5  108.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED

IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASE ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING AND ESTIMATED CLOUD DRIFT WIND SPEEDS. TC 18S
HAS REMAINED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO LOW-MID
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WEAK
STEERING FLOW CAN ALLOW FOR SOME SHORT TERM ERRATIC MOVEMENTS IN
THE SYSTEMS TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVENTU
Y RETURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN
THE 12 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
SLOWLY BUILDS EAST AND INCREASES STEERING FLOW ON THE SYSTEM.
CONTINUED SHEAR AND COLD AIR STRATUS ENTR
INMENT IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18 ORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER, FINALLY DISSIPATING COMPLETELY
BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM WGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080155Z9) AND
081500Z4 (DTG 081355Z2).//

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