Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 31 Mar 1999 19:38:38 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 010300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z1 --- NEAR 17.6S4 90.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 17.6S4 90.1E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 18.0S9 88.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 18.5S4 86.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 19.2S2 85.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 20.0S2 83.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 89.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC)HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON
312330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 155 AND 130 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TC 31S NOW HAS A 10 NM DIAMETER EYE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO ELONGATE DUE TO AN INCREASED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. SINCE THE ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS DEEPENED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, THE FORECAST TRACK IS NOW SLIGHTLY MORE
EQUATORWARD. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED AND TC 31S SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9).//
BT
#0016

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