Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 1999 13:48:29 -0600

689
WTXS32 PGTW 312100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z3 --- NEAR 17.5S3 81.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 81.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 18.3S2 78.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 19.0S0 75.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 19.3S3 72.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 19.3S3 69.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 81.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 311730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS BUT OVERALL INTENSITY REMAINS THE SAME. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING AT THIS TIME. TC 17S
(CHIKITA) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT IS STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
311800Z3 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. FUTURE WARNINGS WILL BE SENT EVERY 12 HOURS UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 (DTG 010751Z4) AND
012100Z4 (DTG 011951Z7).//

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