Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 4 Apr 1999 21:34:49 -0500

999
WTXS32 PGTW 050300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z5 --- NEAR 12.2S5 120.8E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 120.8E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 12.7S0 119.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 13.4S8 117.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 14.3S8 116.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 15.2S8 115.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6  120.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S HAS DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA AND HAS
TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A PREVIOUS TRMM IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). TC 32S HAS
BEEN STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN APPROACHING MID LATTITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO FORCE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR THE 48
HOUR FORECAST POSITION. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TC 32S. WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT SUPPORTED BY THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY DURING THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 12
FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 040621Z APR
99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 040630 ) NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051351Z5) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060151Z3).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

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