Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 24 Apr 1999 12:41:19 -0500

999
ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/241800Z/251800Z APR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151Z APR 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12N3 80.5E3 HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED MINIMAL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS, BUT A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 06 HOURS
OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA NEAR 9S9 96E5. THE AREA IS IN A MODERATE TO
STRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT WINDS, BUT STRONG
CONVECTION.  THE 241200Z9 SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A BROAD TROUGH
IS BENEATH THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 240000Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2S9 83.4E5 AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 240300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3S3 60E6 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 3S3 62E8, NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT, STRONG CONVECTION
TRAVELLING EASTWARD. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CANNOT BE DISCERNED ON
THE 241200Z9 SURFACE ANALYSIS, WHICH NOW DEPICTS AN EXTENDED TROUGH
BENEATH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, SINCE AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED A LOW LEVEL WAS PRESENT, AND THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IS
RELATIVELY DATA SPARSE, A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY STILL BE
PRESENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/PARKER/GLASS//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.