Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 26s Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Mar 1999 07:44:45 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z1 --- NEAR 15.2S8 90.2E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 90.2E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.5S1 86.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.0S7 83.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 16.5S2 80.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 17.4S2 76.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 18.9S8 71.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 89.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC)IS
EVIDENT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT IN THE IMAGERY,
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS
EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND COLDER AIR FROM THIS AREA
IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FURTHER INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.
THE WARNING INTENSITY (30 KTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 26S IS
ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE
WINDSHEAR AND COLDER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM, THEN
INTENSIFY AS IT ORGANIZES AND MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z1 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081951Z4),
090300Z2 (DTG 090151Z6), 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2) AND 091500Z5 (DTG
091351Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  25S (DAVINA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001

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