Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 1 Feb 1999 01:48:56 -0600

115
WTXS32 PGTW 010900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z7 --- NEAR 18.7S6 78.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 78.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 19.7S7 76.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 20.2S4 74.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 20.7S9 71.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 20.9S1 68.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 78.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (CHIKITA) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 010530Z9 ANIMATED VISUAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING AT THIS TIME. TC 17S
(CHIKITA) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT IS STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. WIND RADII ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
LAST WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 (DTG 011951Z7) AND 020900Z1 (DTG
020751Z5).//
BT
#0001

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