Subject: Indian-N: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 2 Dec 1999 18:51:51 -0600

443
WTIO21 PGTW 030030
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N4 59.3E7 TO 12.7N0 50.3E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
022230Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N1
57.9E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N0 58.2E5 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.9N1 57.9E1, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST OF THE HORN OF
SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS SHOWS A CONVECTIVE BAND NORTH OF THE LLCC
AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS CHARTS
INDICATE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT HAS FAIR
OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 040030Z7.//

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