Subject: Indian-S: 03 Active Tropical Clones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 1999 14:52:09 -0600

091
WTXS34 PGTW 272100
1. TROPICAL CCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 013
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL  CLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED
 WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAT
   WARNING POSITION:
   2718008 --- NEAR 14.9S 91.9E9
#    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245DGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACURATE TO WITHIN 060 PM
     POSITION BASED ON ENTER LOCATED BY SATOLITE
   PRE ZPKAV MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS MF 050 KT A NDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM OUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 91.9E9
   FORECASTS:
-  12 HR, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 15.5S1 90.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS AP KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025NM SOUTHWEST SEMIC
RCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NV SOUTHWEST SEM CIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
ALN
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 15.9S5 89.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUE TF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM STTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                   -       020-NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWRE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 16.1S8 88.7E7
)< MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS
070 KT
   RADIUS OF 0-0 K LINDS - 825 NM EOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
0                           020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 / 08 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 -.$(-1S8 86.4E8
   MAX SUSTEINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
G   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                           100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 0-;(5-
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 15.6S2 83.5E6
   MAX EUSTAINED WS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
 RAD US OF 035 KT WINDS- 140 NM SOMICIRC
E
                            100 NM ELSEWHER
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7   91.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS HE WEST-SOUTHWEST
 AT 7 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 271730Z0 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5
 (55 KNOTS). TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DUE TO VERTICAL SHEARING ON THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL STEERING IS TENDING TO XWRECT THANQONVQOION TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTS TO Y
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AT THE MID LEVELS. THE WEAKNESS MAY PROVIDE

WEAKER BUT MORE WESTWARD STEERING FLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
9
C 15S (DAMIEN) IS FVQAST TO CONTINUE ON MORA SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE UPPER
LEVELS DRIVING THE CONVECTION. AFTER THE 12 TO 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD, TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS EXPECTED TOLORACK BACK TOWARDS THST.
THE SHEARING ON THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE MID AND LOWERH3
STEERICG FLOW TO DOMINATE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS GOOD
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, BUT MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD
INHIBIT
NY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. TC 15S (=
.83,) IS THEREFORE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT A RELATIVELY CONSTANT INTENSITY WITH SOMU
SLOW WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TOWARDS THE END OF THEH
72 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIG FICANT WAVE HE
GHT AT 271800Z IS 20
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280308Z3 (DTG 280157Z3), 2809)0Z9 (DTG 280757Z9),
281500Z6 (DTG 281357Z6) AND -2200Z3 (DTG 281957Z2). REFERLTO
TROPICA):6:)9,3  14 (PETE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  16P (NONAME)WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPEATES.
//
BT
?7592

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