Subject: Indian-S: 04 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 1999 08:06:02 -0600

840
WTXS31 PGTW 221500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 001
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z7 --- NEAR 13.4S8 107.7E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 13.4S8 107.7E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 14.0S5 106.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 14.9S4 105.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 15.8S4 103.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 16.7S4 101.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 107.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SOUTH OF JAVA. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON A 221130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WITH
A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TC 15S HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE THE AREA OF
CONVECTION IS UNDERGOING SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL WRAPPED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION JUST SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S IS FORECAST TO ONLY
SLOWLY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR. THE WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED
SYSTEM AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z7 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN 220051Z JAN 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 220100). NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (DTG
230157Z8) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231357Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
WARNINGS(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCA23110221354

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