Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 011

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Jan 1999 02:03:44 -0600

045
WTXS31 PGTW 270900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 011
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 93.1E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 14.2S7 92.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 14.1S6 90.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 14.1S6 89.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 14.3S8 88.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 14.5S0 85.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 92.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED
270530Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH TC 15S
(DAMIEN) REMAINS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FORM JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHEAR AFFECTING TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. INDEED, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS TC 15S AS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 45NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE TC 15S (DAMIEN) CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE, TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A 55 TO 65 KNOT SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG 271957Z1) AND 280900Z9 (DTG 280757Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
001

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