Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Feb 1999 15:40:42 -0600

564
WTXS31 PGTW 142100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- NEAR 22.1S5 40.3E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 40.3E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 21.5S8 40.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 21.1S4 39.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 21.2S5 38.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 21.5S8 36.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 22.2S6 33.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 40.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKEND SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS DUE TO
VERTICAL SHEAR. 141512Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 141730Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN TRACK TOWARD THE WEST
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH MOVES EAST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE ON THIS SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THIS SYSTEM DECREASES,
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER
MOZAMBIQUE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5), 150900Z5 (DTG 150753Z1),
151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8) AND 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4).//
BT
#0006

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