Subject: Indian-N: 010353z Feb Qooxx

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 31 Jan 1999 22:23:00 -0600

641
WTIO21 PGTW 010400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
010353Z FEB QOOXX
REF/E/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEAR #-4?94 #8/310353Z JAN KBOXX
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 310400)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO IMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. STJMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N4 90.0E9 TO 13.5N9 83.7E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBEHED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 59 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 312330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULETION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N2 9.0E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PERSISTS OVER THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO GENERATE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.

IF VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS, THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHZR ORGANIZATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 020400Z6.//

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