Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 1999 21:10:19 -0600

861
WTXS32 PGTW 310300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   310000Z4 --- NEAR 16.7S4 88.4E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
 ) MAX SUAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 88.4E0
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AHC
   311200Z7 7#$IQSMWYMYE0
   AX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000ZY AAA QUMYS4 84.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT
 GUSTS 050 K
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 08.0S9 829E9
   X SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 T, LUSTS 055-;(5
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                 ;    ,0 .0075 NMIELSEWHERE
-  VWTOR TO 48 HR POSIT:-255 DEG. 09 KTS
O  AAV
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 18.4S33)-30
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
              0 # 2- 1   080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 19.3S3 78.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 87.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF
TC 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS GENERATED SOUTHWEST

OF THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE NORTHEAST, GOOD ELSEWHERE. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 302330Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AUGMENTED BY A PARTIAL
301707Z8 SCATTEROMETER PASS. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS SYSTEM ORGANIZES. THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRICAL, WITH
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO TRANSLATIONAL
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS

UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.

BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS THIS SYSTEM ILEXPECTEB TM LO
PL
XNPTACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. TC 17S IS EXPCTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THRUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WIND
RADII ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM 301707Z8 SCATTEROMETER DATA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFIANT WAVE HEIGHT IS ESTIMATED AT 13,FDCEFER TO WWIO30
P
FW FRWTIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 301021Z JAN 99 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 301030). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WARNED UPON AT 06-HOURLY INTERVALS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 (DTG 310751Z7), 311500Z0 (DTG 311351Z4),
312100Z7 (DTG 311951Z0) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE

FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//

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