Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Feb 1999 11:48:03 -0600

051
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/181800Z/191800Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N0
84.7E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7 81.2E1, JUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 12 HOURS NEAR
16S7 117E9, OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED
OVER LAND AND MOVED OVER WATER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND 200MB SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
 89E7 HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
 CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/LAFRAMBOISE/PARKER/JACKSON//
BT
#0000

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