Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 003 Relocated

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Jan 1999 08:06:46 -0600

367
WTXS31 PGTW 231500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231200Z8 --- NEAR 14.0S5 104.5E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 104.5E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 14.3S8 103.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 14.8S3 102.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 15.6S2 100.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 16.4S1 99.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 104.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WAS RELOCATED NORTHWARD BASED ON A
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS AT
230136Z5. TC 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231130Z0 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS).
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 15S HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MORE CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATION ALSO
INDICATES MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA. TC 15S HAS TRACKED UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S (DAMIEN) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
A LOWER WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z8 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 (DTG 240157Z9) AND 241500Z2
(DTG 241357Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNING (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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