Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s (frederic) Warning Nr 012

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 29 Mar 1999 20:36:14 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 300300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z3 --- NEAR 17.0S8 99.0E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 99.0E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 17.3S1 96.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 18.0S9 94.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 18.8S7 91.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 19.7S7 89.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 98.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31S (FREDERIC) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, ABOUT 1000NM WEST OF AUSTRALIA.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (115 KTS) ARE BASED ON 292330Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 292222Z9 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND DEVELOPED AN EYE AT
291930Z4. CURRENT IMAGERY SHOWS TC 31S NOW HAS A 25NM EYE. TC 31S
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
UW-CIMSS WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS AND ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOW THE SYSTEM TO
BE TRACKING IN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS ALLOWED TC 31S TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 31S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND STABLIZE BY THE 48HR POSTION. THE WIND RADII
WAS EXPANDED BASED ON SATELLITE ANAYSIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG
301351Z3) AND 310300Z7 (DTG 310151Z1).//

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