Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 23 Apr 1999 12:52:35 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/231800Z/241800Z APR 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351Z APR 99//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12N3 80.5E3 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED MINIMAL DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS, BUT A WELL-DEFINED LLCC REMAINS. THE UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR PRODUCT CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA NEAR 13.5N9 75.5E7 HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 231200Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE 33S (HAMISH) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S0 84.4E6 AND WAS MOVING WEST AT 7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 231500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 3S3 60E6 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 230600Z1 SCATTEROMETER IMAGE INDICATES A PERSISTENT, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SCHIBER/THOMAS/GLASS//

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