Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 32s (gwenda) Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 5 Apr 1999 21:16:57 -0500

999
WTXS32 PGTW 060300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 14.6S1 117.2E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 14.6S1 117.2E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 16.0S7 115.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 17.5S3 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 19.1S1 113.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 20.7S9 111.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 116.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S (GWENDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD NORTHWEST OF
AUSTRALIA AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 052330Z3 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 32S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS
IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 32S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH TC
32S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE NORMAL
RATE, INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TC 32S.
INDEED, A LOW PROBABILITY FORECAST SCENARIO EXISTS IN WHICH TC 32S
UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS AND BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 18 FEET.
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IS SWITCHING TO SIX-HOURLY WARNINGS
ON THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5
(DTG 060753Z1), 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8), 062100Z9 (DTG 061953Z4) AND
070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLYUPDATES.//
BT
#0003

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