Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Jan 1999 05:17:05 -0600

999
WTXS21 PGTW 161100
161051Z JAN 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.7S9 39.7E9 TO 24.6S2 43.3E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.2S5 40.2E6.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
THE AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL HAS SHOWN
INCREASING ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CICULATION CENTER IS ALSO PRESENT AND MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHICH
MAY RETARD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 171100Z0.
//

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