Subject: Indian-S: 04 Active Tropical Cyclones In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Jan 1999 21:10:32 -0600

107
WTXS31 PGTW 230300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 002
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z5 --- NEAR 14.6S1 104.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 104.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 15.5S1 102.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 16.5S2 101.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 17.5S3 99.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 18.8S7 97.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            165 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3  104.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 222330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS).
TC 15S HAS UNDERGONE MODERATE SHEAR, DISPLACING THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 15S HAS
TRACKED UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING FORCE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE SYSTEMS ON ITS WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15S IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A LOWERER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
INTENSITY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY AFTER THE 12 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWXS31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z1
(DTG 231357Z1) AND 240300Z9 (DTG 240157Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  13P (OLINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  14P
(PETE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

AUTODIN MESSAGE RECEIVD AT AFGWC: RHHMMCA28130230233

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