Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Sep 1999 12:44:20 -0500

429
ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/301800Z SEP 99/011800Z OCT 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N9
67.7E0, IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N1
67E3. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ORGANIZED WEAKENING AND
SHEARED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO
AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6S6 60E6,
SOUTHEAST OF THE SEYCHELLES, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7S7 60E6 AND HAS
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK ROTATION AND WEAKENING CONVECTION. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/LAFRAMBOISE/GLASS//

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