Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 1999 11:34:59 -0600

999
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/121800Z/131800Z JAN 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8S8 53E8
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6S6 52E7. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5S5 92E1 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 5S5 91E0. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. 121200Z6 SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING EXTENDING WEST FROM SUMATRA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 09 HOURS NEAR 20S2
35E8 OVER THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION FORMING NEAR A SHEAR LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 121200Z6 SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER FURTHER INLAND WITH CONVERGENCE CONTRIBUTING TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: FINTA/PARKER/JACKSON//
BT
#XXXX

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