Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 16 Apr 1999 11:30:56 -0500

999
ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z APR 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13N4 83E1
IN THE BAY OF BENGAL IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11N2 84E2. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG CONVECTION ADVECTING OVER
SOUTHERN INDIA. 1612000Z0 SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PRESENT BENEATH THE CONVECTION.
LOW PRESSURES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
SUMATRA NEAR 9S9 84E2 IS NO LOCATED NEAR 11S2 86E4. ANIMATED
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A DECREASE IN AREAL
EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. 161200Z0 SYNOPTIC
DATA ALSO SUGGESTED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BENEATH THE
CONVECTION. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK TO MODERATE WITH NO WELL
DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/COX/JOHNSON/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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