Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 31s (frederic-evrina) Warning Nr 021

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 3 Apr 1999 08:20:45 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 031500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) WARNING NR 021
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z6 --- NEAR 17.9S7 80.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 80.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 17.9S7 78.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 18.1S0 76.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 18.5S4 73.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 19.1S1 71.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 79.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST
AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031130Z8 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENISTY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 AND T4.0 (55 KNOTS AND
65 KNOTS, RESPECTFULLY). TC 31S (FREDERIC-EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH
ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO APPEAR
GOOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1) AND 041500Z0 (DTG 041351Z4).//
BT
#0001

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