Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 1 Apr 1999 08:19:32 -0600

999
WTXS31 PGTW 011500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z4 --- NEAR 17.9S7 88.7E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 88.7E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 18.5S4 86.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 19.1S1 85.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 19.7S7 83.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 19.6S6 81.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0   88.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 011130Z6 SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS).
TC 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS
MOVED INTO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT RIDGE STEERING THE SYSTEM
AND ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND CAUSED THE EYE FEATURE TO FILL. THIS
VERTICAL SHEAR, COUPLED WITH THE ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR STRATUS
FROM THE SOUTH, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TC 31S
(FREDERIC/EVRINA) WHILE LOWERING THE LEVEL AT WHICH THE SYSTEM IS
STEERED. TC 31S (FREDERIC/EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING AGAIN TOWARDS THE WEST, POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD, AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED
BY THE PROMINANT LOWER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 31S
(FREDERIC/EVRINA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9) AND 021500Z8
(DTG 021351Z2).//
BT
#0017

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