Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 11 Oct 1999 04:10:34 -0500

801
ABIO10 PGTW 110930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/110930Z/111800Z OCT 99//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 17N8 61E7 AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. UW
CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORALBE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12S3
70E7, SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADD PARA 1.B.(1) AS POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/CANTRELL/PARKER/GLASS//

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