Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 Jan 1999 11:26:30 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

999
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/181800Z/191800Z JAN 99//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181353Z JAN 99//
AMPN/REF A/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 181200Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S3 (ALDA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
28.0S0 39.2E4 MOVING SOUTH AT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REFERENCE A
(WTXS31 181500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9 61E7
HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. 181200Z2
SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THIS AREA IS LOCATED WITHIN A PORTION
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST, WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9 72E9
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12S3 67E3 IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA ANALYSIS INDICATE A
SMALL LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MONSOONAL TROUGH
CONVERGENCE GENERATING PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7S7 100E1
HAS MOVED NEAR 7S7 105E6 WEST OF JAVA. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. 181200Z2 SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9S9
50E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8S8 48E2, NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN.
181200Z1 SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/HERRON/HOWELLS//

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