Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (damien) Warning Nr 016

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Jan 1999 08:05:36 -0600

881
WTXS31 PGTW 281500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 16.8S5 89.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
OUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 89.1E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 17.6S4 87.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 17.9S7 85.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 17.9S7 83.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 17.8S6 80.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 17.5S3 76.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 88.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY (50
KNOTS) IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS
CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 50NM NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION.
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS TC 15S HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
ABOUT 60NM FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS. TC 15S (DAMIEN)
IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH OF TC 15S. THOUGH OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD
ON THE WESTERN SIDE, MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM
WILL INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281200Z3 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 (DTG 281957Z2),
290300Z4 (DTG 290157Z4), 290900Z0 (DTG 290757Z0) AND 291500Z7 (DTG
291357Z7).//

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