Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 1999 02:22:54 -0600

573
WTXS31 PGTW 300800
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNING NR 022
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z9 --- NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 17.2S0 81.1E0
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 16.8S5 78.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 16.7S4 76.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 16.8S5 74.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 80.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) HAS MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIEN

CE
 MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE LO

W-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENS

ITY ARE
 BASED ON INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSI

TY IS
 ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN-BIRENDA) IS FORE

CAST
 TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MO

VES
S
 MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

WEAKENING
 DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLA

TION FROM THE PREVIOUS
 WARNING AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICAN

T WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATI

ON. NEXT WARNINGS
 AT 302100Z6 (DTG 301957Z5) AND 310900Z3 (DTG 3PUTUZ3).//
BT
?0001

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