Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Nov 2000 11:47:43 -0600

069
WTIO30 FMEE 121800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 2/2/20002001
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC  12/11/2000 : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF
    POINT 11.2S/79.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
    SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 2.5/2.5  /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30: 10 KM   SE30: 20 KM
    SW30: 120 KM   NW30: 60 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 11.6S / 79.9E FI=2.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 12.0S / 80.0E FI=2.5

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 12.3S / 80.7E FI=3.0

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : T=CI=2.5-. THE SYSTEM HAS
    LIGHTLY INTENSIFYED DURING THE DAY, WHITH A REGULAR CDO
    PATTERN AT 14TU, AND CONVECTION HAS NOW WEAKEN, SHOWING SIGNS
    OF A HIGH LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY SHEARING SOUTH OF 12S, WHAT IS
CONFIRMED BY UW-CIMSS DATA.
IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD A ROUGH FAR IN THE SOUTH.
WINDS EXTENTION BASED ON ERS DATA AT 05TU ON 12/11/2000=