Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 26 Nov 2000 20:55:24 -0600

563
ABIO10 PGTW 270230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/270230Z/271800Z NOV 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151Z NOV 00//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 270000Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N4
89.1E8, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF SRI LANKA, AND WAS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW
270300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N3 65.5E6
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N2 61.0E7, ABOUT 640 NM EAST OF THE NORTHERN
TIP OF SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEFINITE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A 261344Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
PASS DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
A 261358Z5 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTS A WEAK LLCC ABOUT 60-
90 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10.0S1 109.0E0,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT PERSISTENT, BUT POORLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND
UNDER 15 KT EASTERLY FLOW. THE UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: REISSUED TO ADD POOR AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1) AND
UPDATED PARAGRAPH 1.A.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/PALMER/MAYER/TON//