Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2000 11:50:25 -0600

618
ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/201800Z/211800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351Z FEB 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200451Z FEB 00//
REF/C/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200521Z FEB 00//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 201200Z5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 22.4N8 37.9E9, AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 201500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2
103.7E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S2 105.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF B). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SOME ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 200500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N9
77.5E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 75.7E9, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF C). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB. SEE REF C
(WTXS21 PGTW 200530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//

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