Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 25 Nov 2000 02:31:53 -0600

690
ABIO10 PGTW 250730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/250730Z/251800Z NOV 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N9
68.0E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N4 67.0E3 ABOUT 586 NM WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
BAND MOVING IN TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS DISTINCT CUMULUS LINES OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BECAUSE
OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED PARA 1.A.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/WILSON/BALDINGER/CUTMAN//