Subject: Indian-N: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 28 Mar 2000 23:19:09 -0600

592
WTIO21 PGTW 290430
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 290421Z MAR 00//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N1 88.5E1 TO 13.1N5 83.8E9
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290230Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.6N7 87.8E3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPID INCREASE IN
AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 290019Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS RELATIVELY LOW CLOUD FREE. IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWED THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE WIND
SPEED, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE LLCC, HAS INCREASED NEAR THE LLCC
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALED A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
DEVELOPING FROM THE MID-LEVELS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INTENSE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE LLCC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 300430Z0.//