Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2000 11:45:55 -0600

436
ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/111800Z/121800Z JAN 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751Z JAN 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 110600Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 23.7S2 68.4E8, EAST OF MAURITIUS, AND WAS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 110900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0S0
43.0E7 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT PERSISTENT,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
128.0E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 125.5E3, OFF THE KIMBERLEY COAST
OF AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/CANTRELL/PARKER/GLASS/WHITCOMB//

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