Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2000 11:31:03 -0600

457
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/141800Z/151800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141351Z FEB 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 141200Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WAS LOCATED
AT 18.2S1 58.6E9, AND WAS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 141500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0
99.5E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 101.4E6, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HOWEVER,
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT ABOUT 200 NM NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141039Z8 SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS
AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//

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