Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 2 Jul 2000 14:43:35 -0500

776
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z JUL 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 15.0N6 83.1E2 IN
THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION LOCATED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5S3
96.2E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 96.0E5 NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPID DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND QUICKSCAT PASSES
INDICATE A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA AND INCREASING TO
THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/MAZANY/PARKER/DAWSON//