Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 2 Jan 2000 18:52:30 -0600

847
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z JAN 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S5
107.6E4 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
77.0E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S1 80.6E4, IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN
OCEAN. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.5S4 91.0E0,
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WHICH HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POOR.
      (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ASTRIDE) IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 43.8E5 IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH AN AREA OF BROKEN
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POOR.
      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/THOMAS/NEAULT/DAWSON//

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