Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 1 Aug 2000 00:28:30 -0500

194
ABIO10 PGTW 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/010400Z AUG 00/011800Z AUG 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 6.1S7 78.9E4
ABOUT 400 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
SWATH INDICATED STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
200 MB ANALYSIS, HOWEVER, SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING BENEATH
30 TO 40 KNOT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/MORRIS/CUTMAN//