Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2000 02:41:44 -0600

609
ABIO10 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/100900Z/101800Z NOV 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
      A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
      B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
      A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
      B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
            (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4
86.5E9 IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3
85.6E9. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A POSSIBLE ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED

AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
            (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADE 2.B.(1) TO FAIR
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//