Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2000 11:29:37 -0600

817
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z JAN 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.4S8
43.0E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6S9 45.7E6, OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA AND A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LAND
EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR AND THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
OVER THE AREA WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
95.0E4, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/CANTRELL/PARKER/GLASS/WHITCOMB//

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