Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 1 Jan 2000 11:10:02 -0600

165
ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/011800Z/021800Z JAN 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351 JAN 00/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 011200Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ASTRIDE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S9 47.0E1 AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 011500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
105.6E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S5 107.6E4, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STRONG CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4
73.0E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 77.0E4, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/THOMAS/NEAULT/DAWSON//

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