Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 Mar 2000 10:28:36 -0600

795
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/031800Z/041800Z MAR 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031353Z MAR 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030755Z MAR 00//
REF/C/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031357Z MAR 00//
REF/D/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351Z MAR 00//
NARR/REFS A, B, C AND D ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 031200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S7 46.5E5, OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR, AND WAS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 031500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 030600Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7S7 106.3E0, ABOUT 465 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH
AUSTRALIA, AND WAS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS GUSTING TO 145 KNOTS.
SEE REF B (WTXS32 030900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) AT 031200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8
84.1E3, APPROXIMATELY 860 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND WAS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTXS33 031500)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (4) AT 031200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.3S0 127.3E3, OVER KIMBERLEY AUSTRALIA, AND WAS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 5 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF D (WTXS35 031500)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (5) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8
72.2E1 HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 12.8S1 73.0E0 BASED ON MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY. ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST OF THE CONVECTION. UW-
CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE REGION. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1006 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THEREFORE,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
     (2) THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 14P
(STEVE), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S6 130.8E2, IS NOW THE SUBJECT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA 2.A.(4) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/NEAULT//

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