Subject: Indian-N: The Southwest Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 20 Nov 2000 05:47:23 -0600

310
WTIO20 FMEE 201144
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  00/11/20 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
 WARNING SUMMARY : Nil

PART 2 :
 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

1 - The tropical disturbance nr2 has almost dissipated since
yesterday and convection has disappeared. A residual low level
centre is still visible, located near 15.6S/78.2E at 10h00 UTC =
its westsouthwestward movement has slowed down during last hours. A
Quikscat pass of 0h31 UTC confirms that winds have weakened : 10/15
kt near the centre, reaching locally 20/25 kt in the southern
semi-circle. Environment remains moderately northerly sheared. CEP
model still analyses this system but dissipates it at short range.

2 - A new area of convection has formed in the northnortheast of
this system during the last 12 hours, located north of 10S, between
75E and 90E. A Quikscat pass of this morning (0h31) shows a weak
clockwise circulation in the eastnortheast of the main convective
mass. INDOEX derived winds data show a moderate to strong
northeasterly wind shear over this area.

3 - In the Mozambique Channel, the monsoon flow is well established
and convection is organized in a convergence line. A low level
clockwise circulation can be observed around a low estimated 1006
hPa centred overland near 23S/35E at 06hUTC. Environment remains
moderately westerly sheared. NWP models do not develop this system.

For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical
depression is poor.