Subject: Indian-N: The Southwest Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Apr 2000 07:08:22 -0500

869
WTIO20 FMEE 101129
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  00/04/10 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
 WARNING SUMMARY : NIL.

PART 2 :
 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

I.T.C.Z. IS BROKEN AND LOCALLY ACTIVE EAST OF 60E, MAINLY NORTH OF
12S. THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR
YESTERDAY HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED.

1) PERSISTENCE OF A SMALL AREA OF FLUCTUATING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIC CHANNEL.  ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY A LOW
LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CAN BE DETECTED NEAR 25S AND 38E AT 10
UTC. ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVOURABLE WITH HIGH SEALEVEL PRESSURES AND
MODERATE SHEARING. NWP MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP ANY TROPICAL LOW IN
THIS AREA.

2) PERSISTENCE OF AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 88E AND
102E. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
SOME NWP MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL LOW IN THIS AREA WITH A WESTWARD
TRACK CROSSING 90E AT MEDIUM RANGE.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTH WEST INDIAN OCEAN IS POOR.=