Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 25 Nov 2000 19:41:51 -0600

073
ABIO10 PGTW 260200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/260200Z/261800Z NOV 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N4
67.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N3 65.5E6, ABOUT 700 NM WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, A 251357Z8
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION NORTH TO EAST. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, BUT IS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.6N3 95.0E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N8 93.3E5, APPROXIMATELY
290 NM WEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND IN THE ANDAMAN SEA. ANIMATED VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST 5 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT WEST OF THE LLCC WITH A DEVELOPING
CONVECTIVE BAND NORTH TO EAST OF THE CENTER. A 260000Z8 SYNOPTIC
SHIP REPORT NEAR 6.0N6 91.5E5, ABOUT 120 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC,
INDICATES A 23-KNOT WESTERLY SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LLCC
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER 15-20 KNOT
EASTERLY FLOW. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION: RE-ISSUED TO UPGRADE POOR AREA IN PARA 1.A.(2) TO
FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//