Subject: Indian-N: Ampn/ref Is Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (wtio21 Pgtw 290430)//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Mar 2000 22:50:57 -0600

890
WTIO21 PGTW 300430
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290430Z MAR 00//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 290430)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 14.1N6 89.5E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 300000Z3 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N6 89.5E2.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
THE AREA OF CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 14.1N6 89.5E2 HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. A 300006Z9
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD. 500 MB ANALYSIS REVEALED A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO
MODERATE WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE
BAY OF BENGAL. EARLIER QUICKSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTED A CIRCULATION
SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION AT APPROXIMATELY 10.0N1. THEREFORE, THE
TCFA AREA WAS CONSTRUCTED TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE RELOCATION FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 310430Z1.//
BT
#XXXX