Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 2 Mar 2000 11:40:52 -0600

214
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z MAR 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021353Z MAR 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020755Z MAR 00//
REF/C/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021357Z MAR 00//
NARR/REF A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 021200Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0S7 48.8E0 AND WAS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 021500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 020600Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.9S8 112.4E8 AND WAS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 020900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) AT 021200Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S3
86.2E6 AND WAS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF C
(WTXS33 021500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
73.4E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8 72.2E1 WITHIN AN ACTIVE MONSOON
TROUGH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF WEAK
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED FROM THE EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS FAIR
OUTFLOW ALOFT. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
133.0E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S6 130.8E2, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
REMAINED INTACT AS THE REMNANTS OF TC 14P (STEVE) CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK WEST ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE LLCC HAS RETAINED
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
CIRCULATION, BUT UNTIL THE LLCC MOVES BACK OVER THE OPEN WATER,
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LLCC AND ALLOW FOR
REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. IF THIS HAPPENS, A REGENERATED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED NEAR 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/THOMAS/NEAULT//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.