Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 1 Jul 2000 21:35:49 -0500

580
ABIO10 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/020300Z/021800Z JUL 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.0S9 97.0E6,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATE AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-
CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/PARKER/DAWSON//