Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 20 Nov 2000 11:47:04 -0600

468
ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/201800Z/211800Z NOV 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N1
78.5E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N3 79.0E6, JUST WEST OF NORTHERN SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT, BUT
WEAKENING, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A DEFINITE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 20-25
KNOT WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, A 201601Z0 TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH WEAK BANDING PRIMARILY OVER LAND. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE AREA IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH 15 TO 20
KNOTS EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1
86.4E8 (ASSOCIATED WITH TC 02S) HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//