Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2000 11:57:24 -0600

877
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/121800Z/131800Z JAN 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751Z JAN 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 120600Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 27.8S7 70.0E7, EAST OF MAURITIUS, AND WAS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 120900) FOR DETAILS
AND THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0S0
43.0E7 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT
BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
125.5E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 122E5, OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST
OF AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DEPICT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BOTH ON AND OFF SHORE. SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/MORRIS/JACKSON//
BT
#XXXX

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