Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 8 Mar 2000 14:31:17 -0600

429
ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/082030Z/091800Z MAR 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070755Z MAR 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071351Z MAR 00//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 080600Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.9S4 92.5E6, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, AND WAS
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 080900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 081200Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.9S5 113.0E5, EAST OF CARNAVARON, AUSTRALIA, AND WAS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS35 PGTW 081500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2S7
79.5E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S3 86.0E4 ABOUT 920 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
MINIMAL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
     (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.1S6
37.3E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.0S7 36.0E9, ABOUT 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF
INHAMBANE, MOZAMBIQUE. A 081740Z0 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING
MISSION (TRMM 37 GHZ) PASS DEPICTED A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(2) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/JACKSON//
BT
#XXXX

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