Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2000 23:09:34 -0600

264
ABIO10 PGTW 230500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/230500Z/231800Z JAN 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351Z JAN 00/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING./
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 221200Z7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3S3
116.1E9 APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA.
MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4S4
39.2E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21S3 40E4 ABOUT 300 NM WEST OF MADAGASCAR
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
SYNOPTIC DATA NO LONGER INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 11S2 96E5,
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A DEVELOPING LLCC BENEATH
THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO POOR AND ADDED
POOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/MORRIS/BALDINGER/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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