Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 May 2000 12:59:06 -0500

932
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/131800Z/141800Z MAY 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
       (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 19.6N6 66.7E9,
APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN IN THE ARABIAN SEA.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 200MB AND 500MB ANALYSES DEPICT A WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS FURTHER SHOWS THAT THIS CUT-OFF LOW STACKS
WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT. HOWEVER, SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ARABIAN SEA HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY LOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
FROM 1004-1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON THE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
       (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/TON//