Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 3 Jul 2000 12:23:49 -0500

534
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/031800Z/041800Z JUL 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N6
83.1E2, IN THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS
NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
96.0E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S5 93.5E7, ABOUT 200 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PULSING OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IMAGERY
ALSO DEPICTS CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST 5
HOURS. A 031504Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. RECENT QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER AND
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND SUPPORT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS
BENEATH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1003 MB. BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND THE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//