Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2000 11:42:06 -0600

286
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/141800Z/151800Z JAN 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.3S8
43.2E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.4S8 43.0E7, IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
SLIGHTLY IMPROVING ORGANIZATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE AREA IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 95.0E4,
SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/CANTRELL/PARKER/GLASS/WHITCOMB//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message.  For help with the
WX-TROPL or WX-TALK discussion groups write to [email-masked] or see
http://www.inlink.com/~landmb/intro.html.  For more information on
tropical weather products, see the NCEP Products Homepage at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nhcprod.html.