Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 11:59:26 -0500

921
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z APR 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351Z APR 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 7.1N8 72.7E6,
WEST OF SOUTHERN INDIA, OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 021200Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.5S1 51.6E2, ABOUT 84 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR
AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
021500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S9
76.0E3, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.0S4 83.0E1
ABOUT 770 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A FLARE UP OF THE CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BRANDON/WHITCOMB//