Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2000 21:19:17 -0600

231
ABIO10 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/230300Z/231800Z MAR 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7
102.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S6 100.7E8, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT
CONVECTION WITH AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED SUSPECT AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/LAFRAMBOISE/TON//