Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2000 21:48:23 -0600

199
ABIO10 PGTW 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/210400Z/211800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151Z FEB 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200153Z FEB 00//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 210000Z3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S2 37.1E1, AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 210000Z3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FELICIA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7S4 74.0E1, AND WAS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B
(WTXS32 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4S2
105.0E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S9 107.8E6, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 08 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER, CONVECTION
IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND IS NOT PERSISTENT. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA IS NOW WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS UNDER
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1005 MB. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
75.7E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S4 74.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 950 NM EAST
OF MAURITIUS, AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
(SEE REF B). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
CONVECTION ORGANIZING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: RE-ISSUED TO DOWNGRADE GOOD AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1)
TO POOR, AND UPGRADE GOOD AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/HOWELLS//
BT
#XXXX

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