Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 1 Mar 2000 22:01:24 -0600

607
ABIO10 PGTW 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/020400Z/021800Z MAR 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020153Z MAR 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA/011955Z MAR 00//
REF/C/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020157Z MAR 00//
NARR/REF A AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FROM JTWC. REF B A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING BY THE ALTERNATE JTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 020000Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7S2 49.7E0 AND WAS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 020300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 010600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.6S5 115.9E6 AND WAS TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 012100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) AT 020000Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.0S4 86.8E2 AND WAS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE
REF C (WTXS33 020300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5
73.8E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 73.4E4. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS AN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WHICH HAS BEGUN TO APPEAR MORE
ORGANIZED WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. A 011801Z1
SCATTEROMETER PASS (ERS-2) INDICATED A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
     (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 133.0E7,
APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEFINE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE).
CONVECTION REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
BROAD CIRCULATION, BUT AS THE LLCC CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE
WEST. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE LLCC MOVES CLOSER TO
THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED NEAR 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: COMPLETELY UPDATED ENTIRE ADVISORY, ADDING SUSPECT
AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) AND UPGRADED TO FAIR PARA. 2.B.(1).
4. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER, PEARL
HARBOR, HAWAII. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY
OFFICER AT NPMOC PEARL HARBOR DSN 474-2320.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/CANTRELL/THOMAS/JACKSON/DAWSON//

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