Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 6 Mar 2000 11:38:19 -0600

220
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/061800Z/071800Z MAR 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060755Z MAR 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351Z MAR 00//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 060600Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7S9 92.4E5, OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND WAS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
060900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 061200Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.6S8 116.2E0, ABOUT 150 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND
WAS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS35
PGTW 061500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7
80.0E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S7 79.5E1, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. A 061250Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHEARED ABOUT 60 NM WEST OF THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.7S9
43.3E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2S5 41.4E9, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION HAS FLUCTUATED IN INTENSITY AND IS PRIMARILY FORMING EAST
OF THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS UNDER WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/HERRON/DAWSON//

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