Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 Nov 2000 11:22:47 -0600

710
ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/091800Z/101800Z NOV 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N8 72.6E5
IN THE SOUTHERN ARABIAN SEA IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N8 71.6N4 AND IS
NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4
86.5E9 IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3
85.6E9. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A POSSIBLE ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/MORRIS/WAUGAMAN/HARRISON//