Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Nov 2000 11:58:57 -0600

984
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/231800Z/241800Z NOV 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
      A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
            (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N2

76.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N8 68.4E8, IN THE SOUTH EASTERN
ARABIAN SEA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. SYNOPTIC

ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE LLCC.
THE UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, BUT REMAINS
UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
BASED ON THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
            (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
      B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
      A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
      B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
                (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0S7
97.0E6 JUST SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
UNORGANIZED CONVECTION, WHILE A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A
POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER   THE UW-CIMSS PRODUCT ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE AREA IS IN A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. BASED ON THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
            (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//