Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2000 17:54:58 -0600

369
ABIO10 PGTW 270000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/270000Z/271800Z JAN 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261353Z JAN 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 261200Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WAS LOCATED AT
14.5S0 55.5E5 AND MOVING NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
261500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S8
56.5E6 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7
106.0E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 111.0E3, SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS
ISLAND. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE INDICATED A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC DUE TO MODERATE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.0S4
38.0E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5S9 38.0E1 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WEAK
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 9S9 79E6, SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY HAD INDICATED A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE REGION. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST 6 HOURS NEAR THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADDED SUSPECT AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(4).
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/BRANDON/TON//
BT
#XXXX

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