Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2000 11:15:43 -0600

244
ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/251800Z/261800Z JAN 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250953Z JAN 00/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT./
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3S7
39.1E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.0S4 38.0E1 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WEAK
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7
105.0E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 106.0E7 APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECOMING SHEARED FROM THE
CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7
56.5E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S8 56.5E6, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
OF MADAGASCAR, AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 251000). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF A FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/BRANDON/NEAULT//

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