Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 14 Apr 2000 12:22:39 -0500

192
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/141800Z/151800Z APR 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141351Z APR 00//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140521Z APR 00//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 141200Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
107.0E8, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, AND WAS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 90 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 141500)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
84.5E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4 84.5E7 IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN
OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA
HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. HOWEVER, A 141214Z3 QUIKSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, BUT BROAD, LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 141159Z1 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION
PASS DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS AND 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT
THIS AREA IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.6S2
36.8E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.7S3 40.3E7, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH
OF EUROPA ISLAND IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF
THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT IS CANCELLED (SEE
REF B).
      (3) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//