Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2000 11:07:48 -0600

704
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/031800Z/041800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351Z FEB 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8
108.9E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 108.7E6, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND, AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 031400)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR 20S2 35N8. A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. BANDS
OF CONVECTION ARE WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY OVER LAND IN MOZAMBIQUE, BUT HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE CHANNEL AND DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/HERRON/NEAULT//

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