Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2000 05:53:14 -0600

391
ABIO10 PGTW 311100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/311100Z/311800Z MAR 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310421Z MAR 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310151Z MAR 00//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION. REF B
IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N6
89.0E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N6 89.5E2 AND WAS PREVIOUSLY THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (TCFA) (SEE REF A).
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AND CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS ALSO BECOME DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. SEE REF A
(WTIO21 PGTW 310430) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE CANCELLATION OF THE
TCFA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.0N4 84.1E3 OFF
THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 310000Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.0S8 64.3E3, ABOUT 165 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE
REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 310300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 15.0S6 85.0E3 IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION LOCATED
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPDATED PARA. 1.B.(1) AND 2.A.(1). ADDED PARA.
1.B.(2) AND 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/MORRIS/JACKSON//
BT
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