Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2000 12:28:47 -0600

937
ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/291800Z/301800Z JAN 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291353Z JAN 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290755Z JAN 00//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 291200Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE)
WAS LOCATED AT
19.8S8 54.7E6, ABOUT 160 NM WEST OF MAURITIUS, AND MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS32 PGTW 291500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 290600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WAS
LOCATED AT 20.4S6 107.6E4, ABOUT 285 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA, AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 290900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.6S8 72E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2 70.0E7 SOUTH OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED DISORGANIZED. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS STRONG TO MODERATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/THOMAS/NEAULT//

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