Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Apr 2000 13:51:36 -0500

783
ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/101800Z/111800Z APR 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
53.0E8 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5S3
102.5E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 100.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HOWEVER, RECENT
QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) THE COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.5S3 37.5E5, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.8S4
37.6E6. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC (ABOUT 120 NM AVERAGE DIAMETER). HOWEVER,
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS FLUCTUATED IN INTENSITY
BUT HAS STARTED TO SHOW SOME CURVATURE. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THIS AREA IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12.0S3 128.0E1,
APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT IMPROVING CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A
SECONDARY LLCC OVER LAND NEAR 17.08 127.0E0. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE AREA IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (5) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//