Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2000 07:46:26 -0500

683
ABIO10 PGTW 141300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/141300Z/141800Z OCT 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2N7
91.0E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N0 90.7E6, OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 75 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
SITUATED NORTH OF THE LLCC, OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY,
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. BASED ON A GENERALLY IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT, POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//