Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 15 Apr 2000 12:56:26 -0500

285
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z APR 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351Z APR 00//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150951Z APR 00//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 151200Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S3
102.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND,
AND WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4
84.5E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S3 79.7E3 IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN
OCEAN AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE
REF B). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. A RECENT
QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
DEPRESSION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS JUST
NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER EASTERLY FLOW OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS UNDER
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.7S3
40.3E7 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12.1S4 120.5E8,
APPROXIMATELY 207 NM SOUTHWEST OF TIMOR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING OUTFLOW ALOFT. A
151008Z5 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC
IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//