Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2000 11:33:24 -0600

667
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/131800Z/141800Z JAN 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0S0
43.0E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.3S8 43.2E9, IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) STRADDLING SOUTHWESTERN
MADAGASCAR. SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS THE STRONGER WINDS REMAIN
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, SIMILAR TO A MONSOON
DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
FORMING PRIMARILY OVER LAND DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS UNDER
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1
122E5, OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OVER
LAND AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/MORRIS/JACKSON//
BT
#XXXX

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