Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 4 Jan 2000 19:20:16 -0600

413
ABIO10 PGTW 050030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/050030Z/051800Z JAN 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041651Z JAN 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTION//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6
82.2E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 82.1E1, APPROXIMATELY
640 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA AND REMAINS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE
REF A). ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 50 NM TO THE
WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR
1000 MB. SEE (WTXS21 PGTW 041430 COR) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0S9 98.0E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8W7 99.2E0,
ABOUT 190 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF
THE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.SYNOPTIC DATA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LLCC EMBEDDED IN A NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH AND 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
HAS INCREASED OVER THE REGION DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE SHIFT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1006 MB. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO
POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: DOWNGRADED PARA 2.B(2) TO POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/MORRIS/BALDINGER//

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