Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2000 11:38:54 -0600

010
ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/191800Z/201800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351Z FEB 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190451Z FEB 00//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 191200Z3 TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.9N1 40.9E3, AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2
103.7E1 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. THIS AREA IS THE SUBJECT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF B). ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB. SEE REF B
(WTXS22 PGTW 190500Z5) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N4
76.2E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9 77.5E9, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEAL RELATIVELY POORLY ORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITHIN
A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SCATTEROMETER
IMAGERY, HOWEVER, INDICATES A BROAD LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS SUGGESTS FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: PATLA/MAYER/GLASS//

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