Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2000 17:54:55 -0500

111
ABIO10 PGTW 182300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/182300Z/191800Z OCT 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171351Z OCT 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 181200Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N0
83.0E1 AND WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31
PGTW 181500) FOR FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SIX
HOURS NEAR 13.0S4 079.0E6. LATEST SYNOPTIC AND SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATE A POORLY ORGANIZED CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION. LATEST UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
WINDS INDICATE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: JEFFRIES/ROBERTS/WHITCOMB/BALDINGER/CUTMAN//