Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 5 Mar 2000 11:18:24 -0600

391
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/051800Z/061800Z MAR 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050755Z MAR 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351Z MAR 00//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 050600Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.5S7 94.7E0, OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND WAS TRACKING
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65
KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 050900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 051200Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.1S1 119.2E3, ABOUT 80 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA, AND WAS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE
REF B (WTXS35 051500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S3
79.9E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7 80.0E8, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAK PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATED A BROAD, ELONGATED LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS
SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.4S6
43.1E8, AND THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING (SEE FINAL
WARNING WTXS31 PGTW 050900), IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7S9 43.3E0,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MORONDAVA, MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE LLCC, OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/JACKSON//
BT
#XXXX

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