Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2000 11:33:33 -0600

341
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/121800Z/131800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121351Z FEB 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 121200Z6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WAS LOCATED
AT 16.5S2 67.2E5, AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 121500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4
99.0E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 98.0E7, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH
OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE AREA. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6
118.0E0, NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO
LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/PARKER/TON//

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