Subject: Indian-N: The Southwest Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 7 Jul 2000 07:04:49 -0500

379
WTIO20 FMEE 071040
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  00/07/07 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
 WARNING SUMMARY : NIL.

PART 2 :
 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

PERSISTENCE OF AN AREA OF FLUCTUATING CONVECTION EAST OF 90 E. IN
THE LOW LEVELS A RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CAN BE DETECTED
NEAR 12 S/88 E, WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE
ON THE LAST SATELLITE PICTURES.  THE CENTRAL SEALEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1004 HPA AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AT 10/15 KT REACHING
LOCALLY 20 KT . THIS LOW IS MOVING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD. HOWEVER
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVOURABLE WITH MODERATE EASTNORTHEASTERLY
SHEARING.

SOME NWP MODELS ANALYSE A MINIMUM OF ABSOLUTE VORTICITY WHICH THEY
TRACK WESTWARD WITHOUT DEVELOPING IT.

POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTH
WEST INDIAN OCEAN REMAINS POOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.=