Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 11:27:24 -0600

094
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351Z FEB 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 151200Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0S0 55.6E6, AND WAS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 151500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0
101.4E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 104.0E5, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151352Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS SHOWS SOME ORGANIZATION, BUT ALSO INDICATES POSSIBLE
MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS IN THIS AREA. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//

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