Subject: Indian-N: The Southwest Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 19 Apr 2000 09:14:30 -0500

091
WTIO20 FMEE 191054
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  00/04/18 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
 WARNING SUMMARY : WARNING RELATED TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
?EX-INNOCENTE?

FOR FURTHER DETAILS, SEE WARNING NR 025/14 AND FOLLOWINGS.

PART 2 :
 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

-1- A WEAK CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT IN THE SOUTH-EAST
OF MADAGASCAR.
CENTRE IS ELONGATED AND IS SITUATED NEAR 29S/49.5E AT 10 UTC,
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KT. MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1010 HPA AND ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE 10/15 KT, REACHING
25 KT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT (ERS
OVERPASS OF THE 04/19/00 AT 06H38 UTC). ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
REMAINS WEAK.

-2- A WEAK CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, WITHOUT CONVECTION, IS SITUATED
IN THE NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, NEAR 11.7S/52.9E AT 10 UTC.
ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE WEAK, REACHING 10 TO 15 KT, AND MINIMAL SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1010 HPA.

NWP MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL LOW AT SHORT
RANGE.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION REMAINS POOR.

NB : TROPICAL CYCLONE ?PAUL?, LOCATED TODAY AT 10 UTC BY
14.5S/95.2E, TRACKS WESTWARD AT  5 KT. IT SHOULD NOT GENERATE WINDS
SUPERIOR TO  30KT (NEAR GALE FORCE) OVER OUR AREA OF RESPONSABILITY
(WEST PART OF THE 90   E) IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.