Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2000 00:50:54 -0600

975
ABIO10 PGTW 250700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/250700Z/251800Z JAN 00//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8S1
39.1E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3S7 39.1E3 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0
101.5E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 105.0E6 APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAVA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION.
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3S9
55.8E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7 56.5E6, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST
OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
RECENT PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS SUGGESTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPDATED PARA 2.B.(1) AND UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(2) AND
2.B.(3) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/PARKER/DAWSON/WHITCOMB//

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