Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2000 12:11:08 -0600

048
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/181800Z/191800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351Z FEB 00//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180451Z FEB 00//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 181200Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LEON-ELINE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.5N5 44.8E6, AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 181500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
104.2E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 103.7E1, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. THIS AREA IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF B). ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 80 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS
NOW UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, SYNOPTIC
AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A TIGHTLY WOUND LLCC WITH 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB. SEE REF B
(WTXS22 PGTW 180500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4
81.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 76.5E8, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED NON-PERSISTENT CONVECTION FORMING NEAR A
WEAK BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES AN ELONGATED LLCC SITUATED WITHIN THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, IMAGERY DOES INDICATE THAT THE AREA HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. UW-CIMSS CHARTS INDICATE THAT THE REGION IS UNDER
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//

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