Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 27 Nov 2000 11:45:33 -0600

398
ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/271800Z/281800Z NOV 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271351Z NOV 00//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 271200Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N2
85.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM OFF THE EAST COAST OF INDIA COAST, AND
WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31
PGTW 271500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N1 61.0E7
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N3 52.0E7, OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOMALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS INDICATE THE AREA IS UNDER
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
109.0E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6 107.7E5 EAST OF CHRISTMAS
ISLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DEPICT PERSISTENT, BUT POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200
MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER 15 KT EASTERLY FLOW. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND PRODUCTS INDICATE THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/MORRIS/WAUGAMAN/HARRISON//