Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2000 07:50:19 -0600

226
ABIO10 PGTW 051330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/051330Z/051800Z JAN 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041651Z JAN 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTION//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6
82.2E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 82.1E1, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA AND REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 50 NM TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1000 MB. SEE (WTXS21 PGTW 041430 COR) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S7
99.2E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8 98.5E2, ABOUT 100 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT INCREASING PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A
BANDING FEATURE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. SYNOPTIC DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED LLCC EMBEDDED IN A NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH.
UW-CIMSS CHARTS SHOW THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE AREA HAS FAIR
OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED PARA 2.B(2) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//
BT
#XXXX

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