Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2000 11:30:21 -0600

302
ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/271800Z/281800Z FEB 00//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN YOKOSUKA JA/270951Z FEB 00//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 63.0E9 IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.9S3 61.8E5 AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLO
NE
FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLIT
E
IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION. AT 270155Z0 85H MICROWAVE IMAGE
RY
SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FORME
D WITH
THIS SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS DATA SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR AND UPPER LEV
EL
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOT
S.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS
IS GOOD. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 270930) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS
NEAR 12.5S8 74.0E1. ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYST
EM
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. UW-CIMSS DATA SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR A
ND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 1
5-20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POT
ENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER,
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY
OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA DSN 243-8872.
FORECAST TEAM: STEWART/MCKEOWN/WYNN/ILCZUK//
BT

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