Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2001 12:07:56 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 031800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 10/4/20012002
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BAKO)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC  03/12/2001 : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF
    POINT 18.0S/86.4E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
    EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 3.5/4.0 MOINS /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 60 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30: 150 KM   SE30: 400 KM
    SW30: 400 KM   NW30: 150 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 18.8S / 86.5E FI=3.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 19.6S / 86.2E FI=3.0

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 21.0S / 85.0E FI=2.5

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : T=3.5-, CI=4.0. BAKO GOES
    ON WEAKENING DUE TO A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WEAKENING.=

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