Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 20 Nov 2001 05:07:47 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 201100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/201100Z/201800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
80.2E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 81.8E7, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
IS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/ROBERTS/WHITCOMB/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

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