Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 21 Nov 2001 00:28:17 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 210600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 1/3/20012002
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.A POSITION AT 0600 UTC  21/11/2001 : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF
    POINT 12.0S/83.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
    EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 2.5/2.5 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30:        SE30: 250 KM
    SW30: 200 KM   NW30:
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1008 HPA / 1000
    KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 12.8S / 83.2E FI=2.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 13.6S / 83.4E FI=3.0

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 15.2S / 14.4E FI=3.0

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : EXTENSION OF WINDS
    ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA.
T=CI=2.5-. THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS
    SOUTHWARD, ATTRACKTED BY THE HIGH TROUGH WHICH SHOULD STAY
    SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAYS.
THE POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS WEAK BECAUSE OF THE
LIGHTLY INTENSIFICATION OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND THE COLDER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.=

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