Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2001 09:00:39 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 051500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 006
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z8 --- NEAR 12.3S6 96.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 96.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 13.3S7 94.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 14.3S8 93.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 15.1S7 92.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 15.8S4 90.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 95.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION
INDICATES SOME WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKENING
TREND. AT 051200Z8, COCOS ISLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 33 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
17S SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS UNDER VERTICAL SHEAR NORTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM COULD EXPERIENCE
INTENSIFICATION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IF IT TRACKS
BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 AND 061500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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