Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 20:06:56 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 031800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN CORRECTION/031800Z/041800Z MAY 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031021Z MAY 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2N7
96.4E9 HAS TRACKED OVER LAND AND DISSIPATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM
SOUTH OF MAWLAMYINE, MYANMAR. THEREFORE, THE AREA NO LONGER HAS
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 031030) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.8N3
70.3E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N8 69.0E5 OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE ARABIAN SEA. LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE MID AND UPPER-
LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. SFC OBSERVATIONS IN THE
VICINITY STILL INDICATE A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BECAUSE
OFTHE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO
POOR.
      (3) THE EXPOSED LLCC PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR 7.0N7 89.0E7 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N1 88.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC DATA
SHOWS 20-KNOT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE
LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES DIFFLUENT, MODERATE EASTERLIES
OVER THE LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR 6.7S3
132.4E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 132.1E7. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST SYNOPTIC DATA AND
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK LLCC EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 200 MB ANAL REVEALS A
SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, SITUATED OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH MAY BE STRONGER (22 TO 28 KNOTS). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECT VALID TIME IN SUBJECT LINE
AND CHANGE SENTENCE STRUCTURE IN PARA 2.B.1.
FORECAST TEAM: JEFFRIES/BALDINGER/HARRISON//

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