Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06s (charly) Warning Nr 011

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 24 Jan 2001 14:10:34 -0600

875
WTXS31 PGTW 242100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z5 --- NEAR 23.5S0 61.4E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 61.4E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 24.6S2 58.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 25.9S6 56.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 27.0S9 54.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 27.8S7 52.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 23.8S3 60.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 06S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY WITH REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241712Z7
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS FURTHER INDICATES A FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 06S SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 (DTG 250751Z0) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3).//

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