Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 012

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Jan 2001 01:27:55 -0600

699
WTXS32 PGTW 130900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z0 --- NEAR 19.1S1 68.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 68.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 19.5S5 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 19.5S5 66.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 19.6S6 65.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 20.0S2 63.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 68.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, AS WELL AS ITS RAGGED EYE. AN SLOT OF DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS IS ENHANCING
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AS WELL AS SUBSIDING DRY AIR INTO THE INFLOW
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INITIALLY
THEN TURN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN INITIALLY, THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER A
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0) AND
140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8).//

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