Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Jan 2001 04:48:34 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

893
ABIO10 PGTW 221100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/221100Z/221800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
      A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
      B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
            (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N1

83.6E7 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
            (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
      A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
            (1) AT 220600Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WAS
LOCATED
NEAR 18.3S2 73.9E9 AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE

REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
            (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
      B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
            (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND IS LOCATED NEAR 21.1S4 51.5E1. ANIMATED
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS REVEALED A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SUSPECT AREA IS LOCATED WITHIN
A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
          (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADDED 2.B.(1) POOR SUSPECT AREA.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/SMITH/WILSON/CUTMAN//

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