Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Jan 2001 07:37:41 -0600

633
WTXS21 PGTW 181200 COR
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 181151Z JAN 01//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 13.0S4 86.1E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180830Z0 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S7 85.8E1.  THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA HAS
IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS.  ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT SYNOPTIC
REPORTS AND A RECENT QUICKSCATT PASS INDICATE A WELL DEFINED 25
KNOT CIRCULATION. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191200Z3.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.