Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2001 21:35:31 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 100300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z1 --- NEAR 19.3N3 67.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N3 67.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 19.6N6 66.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 19.9N9 65.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 20.1N3 64.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 20.2N4 62.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.4N4 66.8E0.
TC 03A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS (BASED ON CONSTRAINTS). IN RESPONSE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WE WILL KEEP THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT
30 KNOTS WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF 25 KNOTS IN 6 HOURS. WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION AND 850 MB MOISTURE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT DRY AIR FROM
THE NORTH HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM HINDERING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 03A WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UK MET-O GLOBAL GRID POINT, GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS-NAVY
(GFDN), AND THE AVIATION RUN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE BAMS, PERSISTENCE, AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS. TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 08
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0, 101500Z7, 102100Z4, AND 110300Z5.//

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