Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 5 May 2001 12:50:41 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/051800Z/061800Z MAY 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N8
69.0E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N7 69.8E3 IN THE ARABIAN SEA. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7S3
130.6E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2S7 129.3E5, IN THE BANDA SEA.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS SOME ABATEMENT IN DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR A POSSIBLE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A SUB-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, SITUATED OVER THE REGION, CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN NEAR 4.5S9 78.2E7. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE LLCCS IN THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSM/I) PASS SUPPORTS THIS ANALYSIS. THIS AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN MODERATE EASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/EDBERG//

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