Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2001 09:14:36 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 091500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- NEAR 18.6N5 68.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N5 68.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 18.9N8 67.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 19.3N3 66.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 19.5N5 65.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 19.6N6 64.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 19.7N7 62.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.7N6 68.1E5.
TC 03A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES
DEPICT CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE 090913Z2 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS
37 GHZ SENSOR INDICATES LOW LEVEL CONVECTION REMAINS MORE INTENSE ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE IN CONVERGENT FLOW. THE 200 MB ANAL INDICATES THAT
TC 03A IS SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN DIFFLUENT FLOW
FAVORING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO STEER TC O3A ON A WESTWARD
TRACK BY THE FORECAST MID-PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS AGREE ON A
WESTWARD TRACK. THE BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODELS (BAMS) INDICATE A
MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z2 IS 08 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2, 100300Z4, 100900Z0 AND
101500Z7.//

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