Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 17 Apr 2001 21:27:06 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z9 --- NEAR 12.4S7 127.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 127.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 13.6S0 124.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 13.9S3 122.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 14.4S9 120.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 15.4S0 117.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 17.6S4 111.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 126.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
172330Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED IMAGERY AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHED OVER AUSTRALIA. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TIMOR SEA AND WILL
PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BY THE MID-PERIOD. TC 20S
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z8, 181500Z5, 182100Z2 AND 190300Z3.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.