Subject: Indian-N: 1. Immediate Delivery Req To Amconsul Calcutta And Amembassy Dhaka

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 10 Nov 2001 08:47:17 -0600

WTIO21 PGTW 101430
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N8 82.4E4 TO 16.0N7 81.9E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101200Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.0N5 82.4E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANDING CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DATA ALONG THE COAST OF INDIA
INDICATE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND UW CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE REGION IS
NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111430Z0.//

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