Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2001 09:29:20 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 031500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z6 --- NEAR 10.1S2 102.6E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 102.6E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 10.3S4 101.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 10.5S6 99.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 11.2S4 97.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 12.2S5 96.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 10.1S2 102.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031130Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BANDING FEATURES AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE LLCC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC
17S SHOULD CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 AND 041500Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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