Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 26 Nov 2001 11:29:40 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/261800Z/271800Z NOV 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260321 NOV 01/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5N0
54.5E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N4 51.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST
OF SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DISORGANIZED, CYCLING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) A WEAK CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 6.1N7 92.1E2,
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE NICOBAR ISLANDS. A 261126Z8
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN A
BROAD TROUGH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PERSISTENT, YET UNORGANIZED, CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A RECENT
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALED LITTLE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THE DISTURBANCE. 200MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE AREA
IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, UNDER
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4S2 95.6E0 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5S2 94.6E9, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. A RECENT SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALED THAT THE CONVECTION IS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1002 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SCOTT/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//

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