Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 011

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Jan 2001 14:31:37 -0600

182
WTXS32 PGTW 122100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 18.1S0 69.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 69.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 19.0S0 68.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 19.8S8 68.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 20.3S5 67.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 20.7S9 66.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 69.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND NOW HAS A 15 NM RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE.
A WELL DEFINED PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER
FROM THE SOUTH QUADRANT, AND DEEPENING EYEWALL CONVECTION IS ALSO
EVIDENT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OF TC 05S ALONG 35.0S8
WILL INFLUENCED THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER
THE 12 HOUR PERIOD. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 05S SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7) AND
132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0).//

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