Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Jan 2001 14:01:21 -0600

306
WTXS31 PGTW 202100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z1 --- NEAR 17.0S8 80.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 80.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 17.5S3 78.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 17.8S6 76.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 17.9S7 74.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 18.2S1 71.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 80.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
201730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A BANDING EYE. A 201629Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING INTO THE
WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD OUTFLOW, AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LAT TROUGH
POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERALLY WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE BY MID-
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 (DTG 210751Z6) AND 212100Z6 (DTG
211951Z9).//

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