Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 3 Jan 2001 14:24:00 -0600

040
WTXS31 PGTW 032100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 12.4S7 58.7E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 58.7E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 13.2S6 57.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 14.2S7 57.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 15.9S5 56.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 17.8S6 56.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 58.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP
OF MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED  SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND
INCREASED BANDING CURVATURE. CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. TC 04S HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE INTO THE WEAKNESS AND BEGIN
RECURVATURE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 (DTG 040752Z8) AND 042100Z7 (DTG
041952Z1).//