Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 4 Apr 2001 03:59:01 -0500

WTXS33 PGTW 040900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 002
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 11.9S1 63.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 63.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 12.6S9 64.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 13.2S6 63.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 13.7S1 63.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 14.0S5 62.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 63.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 12 KTS IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND IS APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH OF RODRIGUES ISLAND.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 040530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS CONVECTION HAS CYCLED OVER THE LLCC. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THEN TURN SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z7 AND 050900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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