Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 011

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Jan 2001 14:14:21 -0600

519
WTXS31 PGTW 072100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 011
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 23.7S2 51.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S2 51.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 25.1S8 50.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 26.4S2 49.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 28.2S2 48.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 30.2S5 48.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 24.0S6 51.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANAKARA, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A 9 NM
CLOUD-FILLED EYE. A 071704Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS
DEPICTED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. TC 04S (ANDO) SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A
WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SLOW MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z7 (DTG 080752Z2) AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081952Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//