Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 25 Nov 2001 03:03:33 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/250900Z/251800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N7
56.7E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N6 56.0E1, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM EAST OF SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES WEAKENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 6.5S1 95.9E3,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN
APPARENT LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE REGION IS IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL WIND SHEAR WITH A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A BROAD
LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADDED PARA 2.B.(1). NO OTHER CHANGES.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/LEEJOICE/WHITCOMB/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.