Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Jan 2001 11:42:30 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

067
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150751Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 150600Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU), WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.9S9 65.9E0, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF PORT MATHURIN,
RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAD TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 150900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
94.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0 92.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 8
HOURS WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CURVATURE. A
151128Z8 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED, BUT WELL-
DEFINED LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
BASED ON AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//

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