Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Jan 2001 12:08:54 -0600

041
ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/181800Z/191800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181151Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S5
85.4E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 86.0E4, THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN.
THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF A FOR FURTHER DETAILS
(WTXS21 PGTW 181200). THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7 119.0E1 AND
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS
DEPICT THE CONVECTION IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1003 MB.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//

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