Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2001 12:23:32 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/141800Z/151800Z MAR 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N8 93.0E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N6 93.0E2, NORTH OF THE
ANDAMAN ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS POORLY
ORGANIZED, CYCLING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, A
141426Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 141146Z7
QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 20-25
KNOT WINDS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
95.0E4 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
RECENT QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SYNOPTIC DATA DEPICT A WEAK
LLCC WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS, UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 11.0S2 110.0E2,
SOUTH OF JAVA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. A 141151Z3 QUIKSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AND UNDER MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/PARKER/EDBERG//

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