Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2001 03:46:40 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 13.0S4 77.0E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 77.0E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 12.3S6 76.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 12.0S3 75.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 11.8S0 74.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 11.6S8 73.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 11.4S6 72.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1  76.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, WAS RELOCATED 120 NM TO THE NORTHWEST BASED ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALING AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 050530Z3 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY
INTERACTING WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST IN A POSSIBLE
FUJIWHARA CIRCULATION. THIS HAS CAUSED A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE GENERAL CIRCULATION INHIBITING
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 16S SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN MORE WESTWARD AS IT BREAKS FROM THE
DIRECT INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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