Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 17 Jan 2001 11:34:34 -0600

137
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/171800Z/181800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 162100Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU), WAS LOCATED
NEAR 22.7S1 60.7E3, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
162100) FOR FINAL WARNING.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1
87.0E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S5 85.4E7, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION HAS BEEN CYCLING, THE ENVIRONMENT HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE
WITH A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//

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