Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (dera) Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001 08:43:55 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z4 --- NEAR 24.4S0 40.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S0 40.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 26.2S0 40.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 28.0S0 41.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 31.2S6 42.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 34.9S6 44.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 24.9S5 40.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
GENERALLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE, RAGGED EYE.
HOWEVER, IMAGERY HAS BEGUN TO SHOW INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
UNDER SHEAR ON THE NORTH SIDE AND IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. SPECIFICALLY, DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A DRY SLOT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT
EAST OF THE EYE. A 100601Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS
DEPICTED A 30-NM RAGGED EYE WITH A BANDING FEATURE EAST WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S IS TRACKING WITHIN A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15S SHOULD INCREASE
SPEED WITH THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTH
AFRICA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND SHOULD
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8.//

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