Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Sep 2001 12:55:28 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/281800Z/291800Z SEP 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/281352Z SEP 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 281200Z3,TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.3N3 60.9E5, OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. TC 02A WAS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTIO31 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0N5 87.0E5 IN
THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG A LINE OF TROUGHING AT THE SAME
LATITUDE. THE CIRCULATION APPEARS ELONGATED AND BROAD AT THIS TIME.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION IS BENEATH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON//

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