Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2001 03:34:40 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 002
      01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
        ---
      WARNING POSITION:
      220600Z0 --- NEAR 25.9S6 39.0E2
          MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
          POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
          POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
      PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
      REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S6 39.0E2
        ---
      FORECASTS:
      12 HRS, VALID AT:
      221800Z3 --- 25.8S5 41.2E7
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
      VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
      24 HRS, VALID AT:
      230600Z1 --- 25.9S6 43.1E8
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM
      VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
        ---
      36 HRS, VALID AT:
      231800Z4 --- 26.2S0 44.7E5
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
      VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
        ---
      EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
      48 HRS, VALID AT:
      240600Z2 --- 26.7S5 46.1E1
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
      DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
        ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 25.9S6 39.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST OF
MAPUTO. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS
SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER AND TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD

WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND
230900Z4.//

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