Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06s (charly) Warning Nr 010

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 24 Jan 2001 02:01:52 -0600

305
WTXS31 PGTW 240900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z2 --- NEAR 22.6S0 64.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 64.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 23.3S8 61.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 24.2S8 58.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 25.6S3 56.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 27.2S1 53.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.8S2 63.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
240530Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 06S HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND HAS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINING. THE UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS IN AN AREA OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST
WHICH HAS ALSO SERVED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 (DTG 241951Z2) AND 250900Z6 (DTG
250751Z0).//

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