Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 16 Jan 2001 11:32:23 -0600

014
ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 160600Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU), WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.8S1 62.1E9, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
160900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0
92.0E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 87.0E5, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161506Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION HAS BEEN CYCLING, THE ENVIRONMENT HAS REMAINED FAVORABLE
WITH A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//

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