Subject: Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/020552z Apr 01//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2001 15:07:40 -0500

WTXS21 PGTW 022000
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020552Z APR 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 020600)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S8 106.3E0 TO 10.8S9 100.7E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021930Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2 105.8E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM NORTH OF
CHRISTMAS ISLAND REMAINS ORGANIZED. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT
CIRCULATION CENTER. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT MUCH OF THE ORGANIZATION MAY BE IN THE MID LEVELS ABOVE A
LESS ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, BUT BELOW AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE, WHICH IS ENHANCING THE
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS REMAINS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032000Z5.//

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