Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2001 03:25:46 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 270900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- NEAR 18.9N8 63.3E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N8 63.3E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 19.2N2 62.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 19.5N5 61.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 19.7N7 59.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 19.8N8 58.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 19.8N8 55.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.0N0 63.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 20 NM WEST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSIST OF
THREE MODELS: THE UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND THE
GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMIC-NAVY (GFDN) MODELS. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR KUWAIT, WITH RIDGE EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA, REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE ON
THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS, ALONG WITH A ZONAL MID-LATITUDE PATTERN, SHOULD ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE NUMERICAL AIDS
CONSENSUS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 10
FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5, 272100Z0, 280300Z3, 280900Z9.//

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