Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01a Warning Nr 014

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 21:36:02 -0500

WTIO32 PGTW 250300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z7 --- NEAR 17.0N8 68.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N8 68.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 17.3N1 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 17.7N5 67.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 18.2N1 67.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 18.9N8 66.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 20.6N8 66.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.1N9 68.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 04 KTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES TC 01A HAS LOST ITS EYE FEATURE AND IS UNDERGOING SHEAR.
TC 01A IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER CENTRAL INDIA BUILDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 240000Z6 IS 30 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6, 251500Z3, 252100Z0
AND 260300Z1.//

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