Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 16 Nov 2001 12:21:36 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
76.0E3, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6 75.4E6, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES CONVECTION
MOVING INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR OUTFLOW
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/WARREN/JACOBS/LAM/SHERRY/KUMAGA//

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