Subject: Indian-S: 1. Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 5 Jan 2001 19:07:18 -0600

814
WTXS22 PGTW 060000
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3S2 83.0E1 TO 11.0S2 75.4E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 052330Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 9.6S5 81.2E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY, NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE 200 MB ANAL
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER
RIDGE, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING OVER THE
LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 070000Z7.//