Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 5 Jan 2001 15:07:51 -0600

728
WTXS31 PGTW 052100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 17.8S6 54.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 54.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 19.1S1 54.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 20.4S6 53.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 21.4S7 53.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 22.7S1 52.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 54.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051716Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. THE SSM/I IMAGE DEPICTS A
PRIMARY BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AND A 20 NM CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WELL-ORGANIZED, SYMMETRIC SYSTEM. TC 04S SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROUGH, SITUATED OVER SOUTH
AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 04S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051800Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG 060752Z0) AND
062100Z9 (DTG 061952Z3).//