Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s (dera) Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001 19:57:04 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 130300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- NEAR 42.2S8 50.8E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 54 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 42.2S8 50.8E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 48.0S2 57.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 43.6S3 52.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AT 54
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
122330Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION POLEWARD OF THE
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. A DISTINCT
FRONTAL SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITH OPEN-CELL, COLD-AIR CUMULUS NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE 250MB STREAMLINE/ISOTACH ANAL DEPICTS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEST OF TC 15S WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POLAR JET, OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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