Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 24 Jan 2001 17:34:11 -0600

471
ABIO10 PGTW 242330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/242330Z/251800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951Z JAN 01//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242251Z JAN 01//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 241800Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5S0 61.4E1 AND WAS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.5S8
49.7E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.2S6 48.3E5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AND IS NOW
LOCATED INLAND OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ORGANIZATION OF
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, EAST OF THE LLCC. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 242300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR RE-ISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/HOLWEG/MAYER/WHITCOMB//

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