Subject: Indian-N: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2001 22:48:05 -0500

WTIO21 PGTW 090330
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1N0 70.2E9 TO 19.0N0 66.0E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090246Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 18.2N1 69.4E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
EARLY VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND A 090055Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED
THAT A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED
BENEATH AN INTENSE MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE. DEEP CONVECTION AND
STRONGER WINDS ARE SITUATED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. 200 MB ANAL
REVEALS DIFFLUENT FLOW EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100330Z7.//

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