Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 30 Sep 2001 03:19:31 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 300730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/300730Z/301800Z SEP 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 14.0N5 87.0E5, IS NOW
LOCATED AT APPROXIMATELY 15.5N1 83.1E2, JUST OFF THE COAST OF INDIA
IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND STRONG SHEAR OF THE CONVECTION. A 291236
Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED A WEAK CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE CO
NVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION REMAINS SOUTH OF TH
E UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB
. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 14.4N9 72.5E4
OVER THE ARABIAN SEA JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE SUSPE
CT AREA HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, A 300409Z6 SSM/
I PASS REVEALED LITTLE IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION. THE 200 MB ANAL INDIC
ATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. SYNOPTIC D
ATA SHOWS CONVERGING MONSOONAL FLOW BENEATH THE
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADD POOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2)
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/VILPORS/HARRISON/EDBERG//

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