Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 4 Apr 2001 15:53:05 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 005
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 14.9S4 77.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 77.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 14.6S1 76.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 14.3S8 75.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 14.2S7 74.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 14.0S5 73.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 14.2S7 70.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 77.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARICA, HAS TRACKED WEST AT 11 KTS IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 041730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION
DEPICT A SUDDEN BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATION ALSO REVEALS DIRECT INTERACTION
(FUJIWHARA) WITH THE FAIR SUSPECT AREA TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS
CAUSED A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
WATER VAPOR AND 200 MB ANAL INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 16S SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS BENEATH THE
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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