Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2001 14:35:00 -0600

418
WTXS31 PGTW 192100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z9 --- NEAR 15.1S7 83.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 83.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 15.5S1 82.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 15.9S5 81.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 16.1S8 79.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 16.1S8 77.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 83.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY) HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 800
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 06S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191730Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 06S HAS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191125Z9
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS CYCLED AS THE SYSTEM
CONSOLIDATES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH A NORTHWESTERLY JET
ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW. A LOW-MID LEVEL HIGH, CENTERED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TC 06S AT APPROXIMATELY 33S6 91E0, IS PROVIDING THE
DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
GENERALLY WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER 12-24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 190621Z JAN 01 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 190630) NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z1 (DTG 200751Z5) AND 202100Z5 (DTG 01951Z8).//

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