Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 7 Apr 2001 09:09:06 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 071500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 010
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 17.9S7 95.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 95.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 19.7S7 95.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 20.7S9 94.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 21.5S8 93.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 22.3S7 92.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 95.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 17S IS BEING SHEARED BY UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17S IS LOCATED
POLEWARD OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE MID-PERIOD.  TC 17S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 AND
081500Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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