Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 8 Feb 2001 11:55:53 -0600

254
ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081800Z/091800Z FEB 01//
RMKS/1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S7
116.7E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S8 114.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY,
HOWEVER, INDICATES IMPROVING OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT DUE
TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/SMITH/BALDINGER/CUTMAN//

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