Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Jan 2001 14:13:16 -0600

009
WTXS32 PGTW 102100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- NEAR 16.5S2 72.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 72.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 16.7S4 71.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 17.0S8 70.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 17.6S4 69.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 18.4S3 68.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 72.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTHEAST OF
PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. A 101610Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED THAT THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT WAS VIRTUALLY CONVECTION FREE. 200 MB ANAL REVEALS MODERATE
UPPER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES OVER THE REGION. TC 05S IS TRACKING
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5) AND 112100Z5 (DTG
111951Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
FINAL WARNING.//