Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 12:16:33 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z OCT 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150321Z OCT 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9N3
81.8E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N8 81.2E1, OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL,
AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE
REF A). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLING CONVECTION. A 151232Z4
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED A 25 TO 30 KNOT LLCC. THE 200 MB ANAL
INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF
A (WTIO21 PGTW 150330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: JEFFRIES/VILPORS/MORRIS/JACOBS/CUTMAN//

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