Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2001 15:40:19 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 202100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z1 --- NEAR 19.4S4 112.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 112.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 20.8S0 111.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 22.2S6 110.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 23.8S3 110.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 112.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
201730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS. ENHANCED
INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z6, 210900Z2, 211500Z9 AND 212100Z6.//

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