Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 3 Oct 2001 12:54:21 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN /031800Z/041800Z OCT 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2S7
83.5E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 82.0E0. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RECENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS BELOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON//

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