Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2001 00:11:14 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 080500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/080500Z/081800Z OCT 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/070752Z OCT 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
       (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N5
69.3E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6N4 70.0E7. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WHICH HAS TRACKED WESTWARD OFF OF INDIA. 200MB ANALYSIS
PRODUCTS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW FAIR.
       (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
       (1) AT 071800Z6 TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5
82.1E1, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND WAS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 3O KNOTS GUSTING TO 4O KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 072100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
       (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED POOR SUSPECT AREA IN PARA
1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/BALDINGER/JACOBS/CUTMAN//

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