Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Sep 2001 03:11:01 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 280900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z6 --- NEAR 19.3N3 61.4E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N3 61.4E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 19.3N3 60.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 19.2N2 59.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 18.8N7 57.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 18.3N2 56.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.3N3 61.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE AVAILABLE
MODELS OF AVN, NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID
DYNAMIC-NAVY (GFDN), ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK. THE LOW-
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE NUMERICAL AIDS CONSENSUS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY.
TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AS IT ENTRAINS DRY AIR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND
NEAR 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 10
FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6, 282100Z3, 290300Z4 AND 290900Z0.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.