Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 12:16:19 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z MAR 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N6 93.0E2, WEST OF THAILAND, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO
LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
105.4E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S3 104.7E2, APPROXIMATELY
NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS ALSO WEAKENED, AND CONVECTION IS SCATTERED.
UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
LATEST SYNOPTIC AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE A 15 TO 25 KNOT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8
87.5E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8X3 84.8E0, EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED
BUT INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. RECENT QUIKSCAT
AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A VERY BROAD LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IN WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TIMOR SEA
NEAR 12.0S3 123.0E6. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED,
MODERATE, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA.
SYNOPTIC AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE A WEAK LLCC. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICAN
T TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/MAYER/TON//

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