Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 4 Apr 2001 00:39:26 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/040600Z/041800Z APR 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/031951Z APR 01//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/030152Z APR 01//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/031953Z APR 01//
REF/D/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/022121Z APR 01//
NARR/ REF A, REF B AND REF C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF D IS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 031800Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3Z9
81.9E8 AND MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 032100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 040000Z4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WAS LOCATED NEAR
10.1S2 100.6E7 AND MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF B
(WTXS32 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) AT 031800Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4S5
62.0E8 AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF C
(WTXS33 PGTW 032100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2
61.2E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S5 62.0E8 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA 2.A.(3) ABOVE. THIS CANCELS REF
D.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 7.8S5 80.5E3 HAS DEVELOPED AND
IS APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN EDGE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: TO ADD FAIR IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//

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