Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 12:02:55 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/111800Z/121800Z FEB 01//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110751Z FEB 01//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 110600Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WINSOME) WAS LOCATED AT
14.8S3 135.2E1 AND MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 110900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7
112.8E2 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE WESTERN TIMOR SEA. SOME
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) BUT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OVER ALL. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LLCC EMBEDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UW-
CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, BUT WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//

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