Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 15s Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2001 19:50:48 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- NEAR 18.4S3 40.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 40.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 19.4S4 40.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 19.9S9 40.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 20.4S6 40.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 20.9S1 39.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 40.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH OF
EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS. A 082100Z1 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (37 GHZ) PASS
DEPICTED THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO
THE EAST SEMI-CIRCLE. ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION REVEALS DEVELOPING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. POLEWARD ORIENTED LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF
MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE FORWARD MOTION OF TC 15S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 15S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 080951Z MAR 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 081000) NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND
100300Z4.//

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