Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Jan 2001 17:34:15 -0600

502
ABIO10 PGTW 140000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/140000Z/141800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130751Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 130600Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU), WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.1S1 68.9E3, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST OF PORT MATHURIN,
RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90
KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 130900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7
91.6E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 94.0E3 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA OVER
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
UNORGANIZED CONVECTION ABOUT A WEAK, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN SYNOPTIC AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UW-CIMSS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//

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