Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 23 Apr 2001 02:18:02 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 230730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/230730Z/231800Z APR 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 7.1S8 80.1E9 AND HAS
PERISTED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCT SHOWS
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WITH FAVORABLE OUT FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) THE REMNANTS OF 20S (ALISTAIR) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.1S4 110.0E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.5S0 109.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 215
NM WEST OF CAPE CUVIER, AUSTRALIA. THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED SLOWLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER COOLER
WATER. SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AS THE LLCC MOVES OVER
WARMER WATERS ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
       (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADDED POOR SUSPECT AREA TO PARA. 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//

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