Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 10 Nov 2001 12:21:16 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/101800Z/111800Z NOV 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100951Z NOV 01/
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101421Z NOV 01/
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N6 81.3E2, IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N5 81.8E7 IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATED A BETTER ORGANIZED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND UW CIMSS PRODUCTS
INDICATE THE REGION IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF B (WTIO21 PGTW 101430) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S5
92.3E4, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 94.3E6, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION
(TRMM) PASS REVEALED DECREASED ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION OF THE
LLCC. THE 200MB AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE AN APPROACHING HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH BEGINNING TO IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN A
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 101000) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/ROBERTS/WHITCOMB/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

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