Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2001 12:58:33 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/271800Z/281800Z OCT 01//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270752Z OCT 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6N3
91.5E5, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7N7 89.3E0, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTH OF BANGLADESH IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC HAS TRACKED POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO A
REGION OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 270600Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S3 92.1E2, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, AND WAS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 270900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/PIVIN/WEAVER/TON//

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