Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 2 Jan 2001 11:10:50 -0600

411
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020921Z JAN 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3
61.8E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4 60.4E0, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST
OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). A 021404Z1 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) JUST EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
020930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N3 92.5E6
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N5 91.8E8, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SUMATRA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS WITH A WEAKLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND. A 021450Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS AND
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW NO INDICATION OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/SMITH/WILSON/CUTMAN//