Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 30 Nov 2001 03:46:43 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/300900Z/301800Z NOV 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300751Z NOV 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N5 91.1E1 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N5 90.4E3, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF SUMATRA. VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, PARTICULARLY, COMPARED TO THE VIS 24 HOURS AGO
WHICH REVEALED DISTINCT LOW CLOUD LINES OUTLINING THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED CENTER. THIS EVENINGS 200 MB ANAL INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN THE UPPER EASTERLIES (EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS) EXTENDING OVER
THE REGION. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2N7
61.7E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N0 63.5E4, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST
OF SOMALIA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 300600Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI-BAKO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4S9 88.4E0, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, AND WAS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 300900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION: DOWNGRADED PARA 1.B.(1) TO POOR. UPDATED PARA 2.A.
(1).
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/ROBERTS/WHITCOMB/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

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