Subject: Indian-N: The Southwest Indian Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Jan 2001 06:08:50 -0600

196
WTIO20 FMEE 201155
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  01/01/20 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
 WARNING SUMMARY :
WARNING NUMBER 010/05 RELATED TO THE SEVERETROPICAL STORM 05
(CHARLY).

PART 2 :
 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

1) THE I.T.C.Z. IS WELL-DEFINED, MATERIALIZED BY DISCONTINUOUS
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE  ACTIVITY, EXTENDING ALONGTHE AXIS
10S/50E-08S/77E AND WITH TWO MAIN FEATURES : LINEAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXTENDING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD FROM DIEGO-GARCIA'S AREA AND A
CLOUD CLUSTER NEAR 10S/52E. AN ANOTHER AREA OF UNORGANIZED
CONVECTION LOCATED OUTSIDE THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY, SOUTHWEST OF
SUMATRA, IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING.
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED TO THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS, NO
REMARKABLE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS PRESENT, THOUGH A WEAK LOW
(ESTIMATED 1008 HPA) MIGHT BE DETECTED WEST OF AGALEGA, NEAR
10.5S/54.2E, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLUSTER, WHICH EVOLVES
WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOT
CONSIDERED SUSPECT. SO THAT
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS POOR.

2) A WEAK CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT IN THE MOZAMBIC
CHANNEL. IT HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, SO
SETTING LESS CLOSE FROM THE MALAGASY COAST. THE LOW IS ESTIMATED AT
1003 HPA, AND WAS LOCATED AT 11 UTC BY 21.1 SOUTH AND 42.8 EAST.
GENERATED WINDS ARE WEAK, 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTION IS POOR, MOSTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE MALAGASY COAST, AND NOT IN PHASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER WINDS INDICATE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEARED CONDITIONS.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION REMAINS POOR.

3) AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND REUNION ISLAND, BETWEEN 18 AND
24 SOUTH, FROM 48 TO 54 EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD,
BUT NO CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS DISCERNABLE, BOTH ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (WEAK RIDGE INSTEAD).
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS POOR.

4) THE TROPICAL SYSTEM N 05 HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS, BEING NAMED CHARLY YESTERDAY AND IS NOW A SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM.
FOR MORE DETAILS, SEE WARNINGS NUMBER 010/05 AND FOLLOWINGS.=

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