Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06s (charly) Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 Jan 2001 02:16:54 -0600

994
WTXS31 PGTW 210900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z9 --- NEAR 17.3S1 78.2E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 78.2E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 18.2S1 76.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 19.3S3 73.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 20.4S6 71.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 21.7S0 69.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 77.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM POSSESSES A
BANDING EYE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
A 210341Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A PRIMARY
BAND WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LAT TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 06S SHOULD TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MOVE
POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
WEAKENING BY MID-PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE WIND RADII HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG 211951Z9) AND 220900Z3 (DTG
220751Z7).//

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