Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 9 Jan 2001 02:12:34 -0600

568
WTXS32 PGTW 090900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z5 --- NEAR 15.7S3 72.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 72.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 15.8S4 71.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 16.0S7 71.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 16.1S8 70.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 16.2S9 70.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3   72.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A 10 NM RAGGED EYE. A
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
EYEWALL. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5) AND 100900Z0 (DTG
100751Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  04S (ANDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//