Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2001 09:03:12 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 271500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z2 --- NEAR 19.0N0 62.6E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N0 62.6E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 19.2N2 61.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 19.4N4 59.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 19.3N3 58.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 19.2N2 56.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 18.6N5 53.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.1N1 62.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND PERSISTENCE. THE UW-CIMSS
DERIVED WIND ANALYSES INDICATE GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM, BUT
WEAK-MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CYCLING, ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE WEAKENING TREND, AND CONSIST OF THREE
MODELS: THE UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND THE GEOPHYSICAL
FLUID DYNAMIC-NAVY (GFDN) MODELS. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
NEAR KUWAIT, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
ARABIAN SEA, REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM,
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS,
ALONG WITH A ZONAL MID-LATITUDE PATTERN, SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE NUMERICAL AIDS CONSENSUS, AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. TC
02A IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENTRAINS DRY AIR AND INTERACTS WITH LAND AFTER
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 10 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z2, 280300Z3, 280900Z9 AND 281500Z6.//

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