Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Oct 2001 13:18:48 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081800Z/091800Z OCT 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/080752Z OCT 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6N4
70.0E7, OVER THE ARABIAN SEA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081625Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS FAILED TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION. THIS MORNINGS MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MID
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. 200 MB WIND ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
       (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
       (1) AT 080600Z4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S7
82.6E6, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND WAS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 080900)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
       (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/VILPORS/HARRISON/EDBERG//

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