Subject: Indian-N:

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2001 05:27:54 -0600

WTIO20 FMEE 211059
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE:  01/03/21 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :
 WARNING SUMMARY : nil.

PART 2 :
 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :

Parceled and fluctuating convection can be observed within the
I.T.C.Z., mainly west of 80E and north of 16S.

1) The area of convection which has been monitored since a few days
is located between 58E and 65E, with a still fluctuating activity.
It remains associated to a low level clockwise circulation visible
on the satellite imagery, located near 12S/61E at 10h UTC. Central
pressure is estimated at 1008 hPa and winds are of the order of 15
to 20 knots. Upper level divergence is good and vertical windshear
is weak.
However, the NWP models do not develop any tropical low, even at
medium range.

2) Moderate and fluctuating convection can be observed over the
northern part of the Mozambique Channel, mainly between Madagascar
and Comoros, in a moderately easterly sheared environment.

For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical
depression remains poor.

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