Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Jan 2001 02:24:52 -0600

551
WTXS32 PGTW 080900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 13.6S0 73.5E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 73.5E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 14.6S1 73.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 15.4S0 72.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 15.9S5 71.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 16.1S8 70.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 73.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT
IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE 36-HOUR POINT. AFTERWARDS
TC 05S SHOULD TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG
081951Z4) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(ANDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//