Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 19 Nov 2001 12:04:32 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/191800Z/201800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8S6
77.2E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 80.2E0, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHERLY
WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/BRYANT/KENDALL/MAYER/TON//

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