Subject: Indian-N: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 21 May 2001 02:13:57 -0500

WTIO22 PGTW 210730
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 225 NM RADIUS OF 15.4N0 70.9E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210630Z2 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N5 68.8E2. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N6 64.0E0 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 14.0N5 68.8E2, IN THE ARABIAN SEA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT BANDING CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NEAR THE CENTER OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATE
D AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPI
CAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220730Z4.//

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