Subject: Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/052351z Jan 01//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Jan 2001 18:41:36 -0600

923
WTXS22 PGTW 070000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 062351Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/052351Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 060000)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1S3 78.7E2 TO 11.9S1 74.2E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062330Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4 77.7E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A REGION OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061727Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080000Z8.//