Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2001 15:17:43 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 272100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z8 --- NEAR 19.2N2 62.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N2 62.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 19.4N4 61.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 19.4N4 59.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 19.4N4 58.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 19.2N2 56.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.2N2 62.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271730Z0 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE UW-CIMSS DERIVED WIND
ANALYSES INDICATE GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM, BUT WEAK-MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
WEAKENING CONVECTION 35 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE AVAILABLE MODELS OF AVN, NOGAPS, AND THE
GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMIC-NAVY (GFDN), ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK AND THE WEAKENING TREND. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
NEAR KUWAIT, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
ARABIAN SEA, REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM,
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS,
ALONG WITH A ZONAL MID-LATITUDE PATTERN, SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE NUMERICAL AIDS CONSENSUS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH
CLIMATOLOGY AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENTRAINS DRY
AIR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX  FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3, 280900Z9,
281500Z6, AND 282100Z3.//

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