Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 8 Nov 2001 11:56:42 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081800Z/091800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N6 82.5E5, IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N1 82.5E5 IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS CYCLING CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS AND UW CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE REGION IS UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. A 081221Z4 QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATES A WEAK, BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EMBEDDED IN A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9S5
88.4E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 89.5E2, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE 081200Z1 SURFACE ANALYSIS, IN
COMBINATION WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS, REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN A LINE OF TROUGHING NEAR
8.0S8. THE 200MB ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATE THE AREA IS
ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SCOTT/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.