Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Jan 2001 07:45:13 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

912
ABIO10 PGTW 061400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/061400Z/061800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060752Z JAN 01//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/052351Z JAN 01//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
2.5N7 88.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA IN THE BAY
OF BENGAL. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH ISOLATED, CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION NORTHWEST. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 200 MB ANLYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 060600Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO), WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.4S4 53.8E6, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 060900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S9
82.2E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S5 81.2E1, ABOUT 530 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF B). ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 060000). THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR RE-ISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 1.B(1).
UPDATED PARA 2.A.(1) AND PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/BALDINGER/TON//