Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 016

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Jan 2001 01:36:33 -0600

612
WTXS32 PGTW 150900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z2 --- NEAR 19.9S9 65.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 65.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 20.5S7 63.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 22.2S6 62.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 24.0S6 60.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 26.6S4 59.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD INITIALLY, THEN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 (DTG
151951Z2) AND 160900Z6 (DTG 160751Z0).//

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