Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 19 May 2001 12:44:26 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/191800Z/201800Z MAY 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N3
57.0E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N3 62.0E8 IN THE ARABIAN SEA. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NEAR THE CENTER OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. SYNOPTIC DATA DOES NOT
SUPPORT A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR 5.0S 76.0E3 IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, 200 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SYNOPTIC DATA SUPPORTS A WEAK CIRCULATION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IN WEAK NORTHEASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//

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