Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2001 10:03:58 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 261500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- NEAR 18.6N5 65.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N5 65.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 19.3N3 64.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 19.9N9 64.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 20.4N6 63.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 20.8N0 62.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 21.3N6 61.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.8N7  65.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A, LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REMAINED BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUD SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS (UKMET-O GLOBAL
GRID, NOGAPS, AVN RUN OF THE MRF, AND GFDN) HAVE SHOWN LITTLE SKILL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE AVN AND
GFDN RUNS REVEAL A SOUTHEAST TRACK (MODEL RESOLUTION FAILURE WITHIN
A MONSOON TROUGH LOW/MID LEVEL REFLECTION EXTENDING OFF OF INDIA).
BECAUSE OF THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS TC 02A TRACKS BENEATH A COL IN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 10
FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1, 270300Z2 AND 270900Z8.//

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