Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2001 12:15:05 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/251800Z/261800Z OCT 01//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251621Z OCT 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N2
94.5E8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N2 92.6E7, JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
BURMA COAST, IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLING CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
LLCC LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2S9
96.4E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5S2 95.7E1, SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THIS AREA IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE
(SSM/I) PASS INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION IS ISOLATED TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE REGION IS BELOW WEAK NORTHERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/WARREN/JACOBS/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//

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