Subject: Indian-S: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southern Hemisphere

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 29 Jan 2001 14:12:36 -0600

788
WTXS31 PGTW 292100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (TERRI) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z0 --- NEAR 16.9S6 120.7E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 120.7E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 17.4S2 119.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 17.5S3 118.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 17.9S7 117.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 18.3S2 116.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 20.5S7 116.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8  120.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (TERRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291730Z2 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ORGANIZING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 291222Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS
INDICATED THE LLCC WAS FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST EQUATORWARD
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS. TC
O7S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD AFTER THIS TIME THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LAT
TROUGH. TC 07S SHOULD INTENSIFY IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z0 IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE LAST
WARNING BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL
HARBOR). THE NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY NAVPACMETOCCEN,
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN UNDER THE SAME MANOP HEADER (WTXS31 PGTW). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 (DTG 300751Z6) AND 302100Z6 (DTG
301951Z9).//

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