Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 23 Sep 2001 23:59:48 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 240500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/240500Z/241800Z SEP 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 17.2N0 69.8E3,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BOMBAY, INDIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS WITH IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH. A 240038Z7 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS UNDER THE 200 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND WITHIN
A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED FAIR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/LEEJOICE/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//

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