Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 16 Nov 2001 05:34:23 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 161130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/161130Z/161800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8
80.0E8, IS NOW RELOCATED BASED ON 161030Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
TO A POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 76.0E3, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARGIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES CONVECTION MOVING INTO AN AREA
OF WEAKER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/PIVIN/MAYER/TON/WEAVER//

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