Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 9 Nov 2001 12:18:33 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/091800Z/101800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N7 82.4E4, IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N6 81.3E2 IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS CONTINUED CYCLING CONVECTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION NEAR THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND UW CIMSS
PRODUCTS INDICATE THE REGION IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH
MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8
89.5E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S5 92.3E4, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE LLCC. A 091436Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSM/I) PASS
REVEALED CONTINUED BANDING FEATURES. THE 200MB AND UW-CIMSS
ANALYSES INDICATE THE AREA IS UNDER FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/ROBERTS/WHITCOMB/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

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