Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2001 20:55:05 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 280300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z0 --- NEAR 19.3N3 61.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N3 61.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 19.4N4 60.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 19.4N4 58.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 19.3N3 57.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.3N3 61.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 27230Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND PRESSURE FIELD ANALYSIS OF 19
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE AVAILABLE MODELS OF AVN, NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE
GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMIC-NAVY (GFDN), ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK AND THE WEAKENING TREND. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE,
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS,
ALONG WITH A ZONAL MID-LATITUDE PATTERN, SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE NUMERICAL AIDS CONSENSUS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH
CLIMATOLOGY AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENTRAINS DRY
AIR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9, 281500Z6,
282100Z3, AND 290300Z4.//

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