Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 21 Jun 2001 15:47:39 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- NEAR 26.0S8 36.3E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S8 36.3E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 25.6S3 38.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 25.6S3 39.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 25.7S4 41.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 26.3S1 43.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 25.9S6 36.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF MAPUTO. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER AND TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 16 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 211651Z6 JUN 01
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 211700) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.//

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