Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 008

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Jan 2001 02:03:30 -0600

010
WTXS32 PGTW 110900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z8 --- NEAR 16.7S4 71.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 71.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 17.1S9 70.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 17.4S2 69.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 18.0S9 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 18.6S5 66.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 71.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
A 110423Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND EAST OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, UNDER A COL REGION.
TC 05S IS TRACKING WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC
05S SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8) AND
120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6).//