Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 7 Apr 2001 03:51:48 -0500

WTXS33 PGTW 070900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 008
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z3 --- NEAR 21.2S5 62.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 62.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 23.9S4 63.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 26.6S4 65.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 29.9S0 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 34.1S8 71.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 62.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
27 KTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
070530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. THE
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 18S HAS ACCELERATED IN A
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 070416Z8
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS SHOWED WEAKENING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INDICATIONS OF EYEWALL
EROSION. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH INCREASING
SPEED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 AND 080900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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