Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 09s (vincent) Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2001 01:54:42 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 130900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z0 --- NEAR 15.1S7 115.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 115.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 15.6S2 117.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 16.1S8 119.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 16.7S4 121.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 17.4S2 122.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 115.8E5.
TC 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL
ANIMATION DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM TO THE
WEST. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD,
WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF STRONG
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09S SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SYSTEM BY MID PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z0 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0) AND
140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8).//

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