Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 06s (charly) Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Jan 2001 02:38:02 -0600

506
WTXS31 PGTW 220900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WARNING NR 006
      01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
        ---
      WARNING POSITION:
      220600Z0 --- NEAR 18.3S2 73.9E9
          MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
          POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
          POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
      PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
      RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                                        020 NM
ELSEWHERE
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                                        080 NM
ELSEWHERE
      REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 73.9E9
        ---
      FORECASTS:
      12 HRS, VALID AT:
      221800Z3 --- 19.2S2 71.6E4
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
      RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                                        035 NM
ELSEWHERE
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                                        090 NM
ELSEWHERE
      VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
      24 HRS, VALID AT:
      230600Z1 --- 20.1S3 69.3E8
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
      RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
      RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                                        040 NM
ELSEWHERE
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                                        095 NM
ELSEWHERE
      VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
      36 HRS, VALID AT:
      231800Z4 --- 20.8S0 66.8E0
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
      RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                                        020 NM
ELSEWHERE
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                                        080 NM
ELSEWHERE
      VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
      EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
      48 HRS, VALID AT:
      240600Z2 --- 21.6S9 64.2E2
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
      RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                                        020 NM
ELSEWHERE
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                                        075 NM
ELSEWHERE
        ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 73.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (CHARLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 930 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST

6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 33 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH IMPROVED SYSTEM

ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 220030Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING

THE EYE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW

OVER TC 06S, AND ALSO SHOWS AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH. TC 06S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CREATED BY THE APPROACHING MID-LAT TROUGH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AFTERWARDS, TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220600Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 (DTG 221951Z0) AND
230900Z4 (DTG 230751Z8).//

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