Subject: Indian-S: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 11 Feb 2001 20:22:00 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 120200
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 15.8S4 110.8E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 112330Z0 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S5 110.8E0. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS PERSISTED IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN,
410 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WEST OF THE
LLCC. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS PRODUCT DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS CLEARLY
DEPICTS A 20 KNOT LLCC. THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130200Z6.//

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