Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Jan 2001 14:16:52 -0600

967
WTXS31 PGTW 062100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 20.9S1 53.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 53.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 22.2S6 52.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 23.6S1 51.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 25.0S7 50.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 26.4S2 50.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.2S5 52.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
WEST OF REUNION ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. AT 061800Z5, ST DENIS, REUNION, REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 18 NM IRREGULAR EYE. A
061808Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A
CONVECTIVE RING WRAPPING THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE EYE.
THE PASS ALSO SHOWED AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER REUNION ISLAND. TC
04S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SLOW
MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 (DTG
070752Z1) AND 072100Z0 (DTG 071952Z4).//