Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 2 Jan 2001 04:44:01 -0600

438
ABIO10 PGTW 021100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021100Z/021800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020921Z JAN 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9
62.7E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 61.8E5, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR. THIS AREA IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 020930) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 8.5N3 92.5E6,
APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 9 HOURS WITH A WEAKLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. AN EARLIER
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTED A POSSIBLE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND
SOUTHEAST TO WEST OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: RE-ISSUED TO UPDATE PARA 2.B.(1), AND TO ADD THE
POOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//