Subject: Indian-N: Ref/a/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/210722z May 01//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 21 May 2001 15:05:44 -0500

WTIO32 PGTW 212100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210722Z MAY 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- NEAR 13.8N2 69.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N2 69.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 13.9N3 70.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 14.1N6 71.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 14.7N2 72.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 15.3N9 72.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 16.2N9 73.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.8N2 70.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A HAD FORMED OVER THE EASTERN REGION OF THE
ARABIAN SEA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. A 211623Z5 SSM/I
PASS DEPICTED DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC
01A IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER SOUTHERN INDIA CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210722Z4
MAY 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO22 PGTW 210730)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7, 220900Z3, 221500Z0 AND 222100Z7.//

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