Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 17 Mar 2001 11:49:47 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/171800Z/181800Z MAR 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S3
104.7E2 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 171339Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICT
CYCLING, WEAK, DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171100Z0 QUIKSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
AREA IS NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AND UNDER 15 TO 20-KNOT
EASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S3
84.8E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 79.5E1, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS POORLY-ORGANIZED, DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171520Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A BROAD, FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA
IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE AREA IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
123.0E6 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MAYER/TON//

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