Subject: Indian-S: Ampn/ref Is Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (wtxs21 Pgtw 181200)//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2001 01:37:03 -0600

484
WTXS21 PGTW 190630
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181151Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 181200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 15.0S6 83.6E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190530Z8 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8 84.8E0. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS SHOWN
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO MOVE BENEATH THE CONVECTION. A RECENT
QUICKSCATT PASS INDICATES INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE.
UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200630Z1.//

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