Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01a Warning Nr 008

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 08:46:30 -0500

WTIO32 PGTW 231500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231200Z8 --- NEAR 15.9N5 70.5E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N5 70.5E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 16.3N0 69.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 16.8N5 69.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 17.2N0 68.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 17.6N4 66.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 18.2N1 64.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.0N7 70.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
231130Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A 12-
NM OBLONG EYE WITH A BANDING FEATURE IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. A MID-
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23.0N5 59.0E4 WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE
EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 01A IS FORECAST TO
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z8 IS
22 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8, 240300Z9, 240900Z5 AND 241500Z2.//

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