Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Jan 2001 02:08:46 -0600

520
WTXS32 PGTW 100900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z7 --- NEAR 16.3S0 73.0E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 73.0E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 16.1S8 72.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 16.2S9 71.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 16.7S4 70.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 17.5S3 69.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0   72.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA IN THE
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS, UNDER INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS NO EYE
FEATURE EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ANY LONGER. A MID TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN WEAK STEERING FLOW. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AS IT BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DIP SOUTHWARD AFTER THE 24 HOUR
TIMEFRAME AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN A
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  04S (ANDO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//