Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2001 16:34:58 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 022300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/022300Z/031800Z DEC 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951Z DEC 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N0 87.6E1 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N5 85.0E3, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST OF SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING,
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A 021431Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSM/I) REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
WEAK WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. UW CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCTS AND
THIS MORNINGS 200MB ANAL INDICATE THAT THERE IS WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.3N8
58.9E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N9 56.4E5, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST
OF SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA
OF CONVECTION THAT HAS SHOWN INCREASED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 021800Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BESSI-BAKO) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2S0 85.9E2, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 6 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 022100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED PARA 1.B.(2) TO FAIR AND UPDATED PARA
2.A.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/MORRIS/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//

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