Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 28 Jan 2001 11:28:32 -0600

456
ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/281800Z/291800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL/280121Z JAN 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S7
73.0E0 HAS DISSIPATED AND NO LONGER HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7
123.3E9. IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 124.7E4 AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING CONVECTION ORGANIZING ABOUT A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OR TROUGH. RECENT SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND PRODUCTS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/WAUGAMAN/HARRISON//

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