Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 25 Nov 2001 22:29:00 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 260430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/260430Z/261800Z NOV 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260321 NOV 01/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N6
56.0E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N0 54.5E4, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST
OF SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9S6 95.1E5 IS
RELOCATED, BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, TO A POSITION NEAR
8.4S2 95.6E0, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(SEE REF A). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. RECENT
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1002 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BASED
ON THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 2.B.(1) TO GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: COX/LEEJOICE/WHITCOMB/WHITCOMB/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.