Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 27 May 2001 08:55:20 -0500

WTIO32 PGTW 271500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 024
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z2 --- NEAR 19.0N0 67.6E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N0 67.6E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 20.1N3 67.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 21.1N4 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 21.7N0 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 22.3N7 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 23.5N0 68.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.3N3 67.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI,
PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH WELL-DEFINED CLOUD LINES. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 25N7 65E1 WITH MODERATE EASTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM. THE UW-
CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
01A SHOULD TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01A IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2,
280300Z3, 280900Z9 AND 281500Z6.//

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