Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 4 Apr 2001 03:55:55 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 004
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 15.5S1 80.0E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 80.0E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.7S3 78.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 16.1S8 76.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 16.4S1 75.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 16.6S3 73.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 16.9S6 71.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 79.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S HAS TRACKED WEST AT 11 KTS IN THE PAST 6
HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA ISLAND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 040530Z2 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 032037Z5 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS
REVEALED A CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC
16S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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