Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 09s (vincent) Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2001 01:29:57 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 140900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (VINCENT) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z1 --- NEAR 16.3S0 118.9E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 118.9E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 17.1S9 119.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 18.0S9 120.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 19.2S2 120.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 20.7S9 120.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 119.1E2.
TC 09S (VINCENT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM NORTH OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS
OF 35 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATION DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NEW DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
ABOUT 40 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH, UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THEN, TC 09S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 09S SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS BACK OVER THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG 141951Z1) AND 150900Z5 (DTG
150751Z9).//

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