Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2001 11:19:28 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z MAR 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N0 93.0E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N6 93.0E2, WEST OF
RANGOON, THAILAND. THE LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN THE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS CONVECTION HAS SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED LLCC ALONG THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS, WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS AT 20 KNOTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
95.0E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4 91.0E0, WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS POORLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR A LLCC. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALED
A BROAD LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A LARGE
LLCC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
110.0E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 105.9E5, SOUTH OF JAVA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/PARKER/EDBERG//

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