Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 8 Nov 2001 18:31:04 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 090030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/090030Z/091800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N1 82.5E5, IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N7 82.4E4 IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS CYCLING CONVECTION WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION NEAR THE LLCC.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND UW CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE REGION IS
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS THAT THERE IS A WEAK LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) IMAGE PASS INDICATES INCREASED ORGANIZATION
OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8
89.5E2, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGE (SSM/I) PASS REVEALED THAT THE PREVIOUSLY BROAD TROUGH IS
BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE LLCC. THE 200MB AND UW-CIMSS
ANALYSES INDICATE THE AREA IS UNDER FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADED PARA 1.B.(1) AND PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SCOTT/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//

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