Subject: Indian-N: Ampn/ref Is Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (wtio21 Pgtw 150330)//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 22:41:50 -0500

WTIO21 PGTW 160330
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150321Z OCT 01//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 150330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4N9 80.3E1 TO 12.5N8 84.9E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 160230Z2 INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N8 82.7E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE PAST 24 HOURS, YET HAS REMAINED UNORGANIZED. THE
200MB ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE AREA IS LOCATED UNDER FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170330Z4.//

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