Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2001 01:15:51 -0500

WTXS21 PGTW 020600
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7S6 108.5E4 TO 9.6S5 105.7E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020230Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6 107.9E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN
APPARENT CIRCULATION CENTER. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THE ORGANIZATION MAY BE IN THE MID LEVELS
ABOVE A LESS ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, BUT BELOW AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE, WHICH IS
ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030600Z9.//

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