Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2001 05:23:27 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/251000Z/251800Z OCT 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N0
95.2E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N2 94.5E8, NEAR THE MOUTHS OF
AYEYARWADY IN THE NORTHERN ANDAMAN SEA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLING CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC
LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
LIGHT EASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6S2
98.6E3 HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 7.2S9 96.4E9, SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE
(SSM/I) PASS INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION IS ISOLATED TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE REGION IS BELOW WEAK NORTHERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPDATE POSITION IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND UPGRADE PARA
2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SCOTT/SHERRY/LAM/KUMAGA//

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