Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2001 15:22:07 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 262100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z7 --- NEAR 18.7N6 65.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N6 65.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 19.0N0 63.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 19.7N7 62.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 20.2N4 61.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 20.5N7 60.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 21.3N6 58.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.8N7 64.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A, LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPROXIMATELY 45NM EAST OF
THE CLOUD SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS (UKMET-O GLOBAL
GRID, NOGAPS, AVN RUN OF THE MRF, AND GFDN) HAVE SHOWN LITTLE SKILL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. NOGAPS, INDICATES A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK, WHILE AVN AND UKMET RUNS REVEAL A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
GFDN RUNS REVEAL AN EASTWARD TRACK (MODEL RESOLUTION FAILURE WITHIN
A MONSOON TROUGH LOW/MID LEVEL REFLECTION EXTENDING OFF OF INDIA).
BECAUSE OF THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, CLIPPER, BLENDED WITH THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS TC 02A
TRACKS BENEATH A COL IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2,
270900Z8, 271500Z5, AND 272100Z2.//

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