Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 017

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Jan 2001 14:24:31 -0600

780
WTXS32 PGTW 152100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z5 --- NEAR 20.5S7 64.4E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 64.4E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 21.6S9 63.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 23.3S8 61.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 25.3S0 61.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 27.4S3 60.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 64.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF
PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC
05S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS ON THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 151740Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH
CONVECTION ELONGATED SOUTHEASTWARD. A 151305Z5 QUIKSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVERGENT FLOW AND
GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC, EQUATORWARD OF A HIGH SITUATED
NEAR 37S0 65E1. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BASED ON QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND IS ALSO
FORECAST TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160751Z0) AND 162100Z0 (DTG
161951Z3).//

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