Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2001 15:07:44 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 102130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/102130Z/111800Z FEB 01//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102021Z FEB 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
RMKS/1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S0
112.7E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 111.7E0. THIS AREA IS
EXPERIENCING A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN CONVECTION AND STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA.
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A BROAD SCALE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 40
KNOT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS A FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTH. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1002 MB. THEREFORE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
DOWNGRADED TO POOR. SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
CANCELLATION (REF A) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: DOWNGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//

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