Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Sep 2001 08:01:19 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 281500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 19.3N3 60.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N3 60.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 19.2N2 59.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 19.1N1 58.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 18.9N8 57.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 18.4N3 55.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.3N3 60.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, WEAKENING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE
AVAILABLE MODELS OF AVN, NOGAPS, UK-MET (EGRR), AND THE GEOPHYSICAL
FLUID DYNAMIC-NAVY (GFDN), ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK. THE
LOW-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE NUMERICAL AIDS CONSENSUS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY.
TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AS IT ENTRAINS DRY AIR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND
NEAR 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 10
FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3, 290300Z4, 290900Z0 AND 291500Z7.//

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