Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2001 12:46:38 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z APR 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/020552Z APR 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0
63.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3 62.0E8, OVER THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN
OCEAN. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATE
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SUSPECT AREA HAS
REMAINED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8S5
80.0E8 HAS DISSIPATED AND NO LONGER HAS POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.2S6 86.4E8
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
      (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6
108.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 106.6E3 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REF A). MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATION
DEPICTS WEAK LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITH SOME GOOD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 020600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
      (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//

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