Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 002a Amended

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 11 Nov 2001 12:31:21 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 111500 AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 002A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 15.4N0 84.1E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N0 84.1E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 16.8N5 83.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 17.9N7 82.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 18.4N3 81.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.7N3 83.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED JUST OFF OF THE ORISSA COAST OF
INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED POLEWARD OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 04B MAY EXPERIENCE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 04B
IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN A WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
NOGAPS AND THE UKMET GLOBAL AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. JUSTIFICATION
FOR AMENDMENT: ADJUSTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON A
111245Z4 QUIKSCAT PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5
IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9.//

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