Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 23 Jan 2001 13:07:53 -0600

567
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/231800Z/241800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751Z JAN 01//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 230600Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (CHARLY) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.8S0 70.2E9 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 230900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.1S4
51.5E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6S9 50.5E0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. A 231130Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SUSPECT
AREA REMAINS WITHIN A WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12.0S3 111.0E3
APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED
SATELLITE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A LLCC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SUSPECT
AREA IS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/WAUGAMAN/JACKSON/PIVIN//

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