Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 015

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 9 Jan 2001 17:44:53 -0600

679
WTXS31 PGTW 092100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 015
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- NEAR 28.0S0 50.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.0S0 50.7E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 28.9S9 51.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 30.6S9 51.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 32.6S1 51.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 28.2S2   50.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOLANARO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 3 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091716Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUICKSCATT PASS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS ALSO INDICATES AN EXPOSED LLCC,
WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 04S (ANDO)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SLOW
MOVING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DISSIPATE BY THE 36 HOUR
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100752Z5) AND 102100Z4 (DTG
101952Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  05S (BINDU) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//