Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 3 Apr 2001 03:44:01 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 13.7S1 84.2E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 84.2E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 14.0S5 82.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 14.2S7 81.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 14.7S2 79.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 15.0S6 76.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 15.1S7 73.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 83.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KTS IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS CURRENTLY APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA ISLAND. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. A
RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALED A
COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 16S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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