Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 4 Apr 2001 08:52:50 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 041500
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNING NR 004
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z7 --- NEAR 10.5S6 98.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 98.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 11.1S3 96.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 11.9S1 95.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 12.8S1 93.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 14.1S6 92.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 10.7S8 97.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTHEAST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS COLD CLOUD TOPS PERSIST OVER TC 17S. A
040448Z0 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTED A
PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF TC 17S. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITHIN A NARROW UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD AS AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
TC 17S WILL CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z8 AND 051500Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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