Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 20s (alistair) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 18 Apr 2001 08:52:05 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (ALISTAIR) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z2 --- NEAR 14.3S8 124.5E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 124.5E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 15.9S5 122.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 17.2S0 119.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 18.3S2 117.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 19.4S4 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 21.3S6 110.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2  124.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (ALISTAIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
181130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING CONVECTION AND THE DEVELOPMENT A
BANDING EYE FEATURE. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVER
AUSTRALIA. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA IS MOVING OVER THE TIMOR SEA AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW. UNDER THIS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181200Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2, 190300Z3,
190900Z9 AND 191500Z6.//

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