Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04s (ando) Warning Nr 008

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Jan 2001 02:42:50 -0600

600
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 19.4S4 53.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 53.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 20.7S9 53.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 21.9S2 52.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 22.8S2 51.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 23.8S3 50.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 53.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (ANDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 060553Z9 QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 TO 127 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 25-NM ROUND EYE.
A 060534Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS INTENSE,
SOLID CORE CONVECTION WITH PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. A 060553Z9 QUIKSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 35-KNOT WIND
RADIUS EXTENDING TO ABOUT 150 NM. TC 04S SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAKNESS
CREATED BY A QUASI-STATIONARY LONGWAVE TROUGH, SITUATED OVER SOUTH
AFRICA, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 04S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061952Z3) AND
070900Z6 (DTG 070752Z1).//