Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2001 19:57:49 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 020030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/020030Z/021800Z APR 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S9
64.4E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0 63.0E9 OVER THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN
OCEAN. VISIBLE AND INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICT THAT COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. NO DEFINITIVE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT IN
EITHER THE ANIMATION IMAGERY OR THE 010427Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS. 200 MB ANAL REVEALS THAT THE SUSPECT AREA HAS
REMAINED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 7.8S5 80.0E8 EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. VISIBLE AND INFRARED
ANIMATION DEPICT WEAK, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, HOWEVER, A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A BROAD LLCC EMBEDDED ON THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
IS LOCATED NEAR 10.4S5 109.9E9 JUST SOUTH OF JAVA. INFRARED AND
VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE LLCC.
IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS CUMULUS LINES SOUTHEAST OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SUSPECT AREA IS
BENEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW, HOWEVER, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: ADDED PARA 2.B.(3) POOR AREA.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/WILSON/CUTMAN//

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