Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 16s Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2001 15:59:40 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 13.3S7 86.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 86.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 14.0S5 84.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 14.6S1 82.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 15.3S9 80.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 16.4S1 79.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9  86.1E5.
THE FAIR SUSPECT AREA PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 86.4E8
HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S ABOUT 900 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA ISLAND. THIS IS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM AND
DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ACTUAL STRENGTH. HOWEVER, A MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT A BANDING
EYE FEATURE MAY BE DEVELOPING. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
BETA ADVECTION MODELS, CLIPER AND HPAC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND
032100Z6.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.