Subject: Indian-S: 1. Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 23 Jan 2001 19:05:00 -0600

383
WTXS21 PGTW 240100
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.1S4 50.6E1 TO 23.2S7 47.1E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
232200Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.5S8
49.7E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.6S9
50.5E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5S8 49.7E0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE IMAGERY OVER
THE LAST 3 HOURS INDICATES A LESSENING OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS BEGINNING TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION (LLCC). UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS FURTHER SUPPORTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT FURTHER
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN UW-CIMSS DATA
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS CURRENTLY AIDING OUTFLOW OVER THE
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250100Z8.//

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