Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001 02:13:22 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 160800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/160800Z/161800Z MAR 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N6 93.0E2, WEST OF THAILAND, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO
LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5
105.9E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 105.4E0, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, JAVA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS SUPPORT A
LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. A 160234Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A
CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4
91.0E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8 87.5E0, APPROXIMATELY 900 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR A LLCC. A RECENT SSM/I PASS
REVEALED A BROAD LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTION, AND A 152359Z5 QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED WEAK LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
IN WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: UPGRADE 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/HARRISON/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.