Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 25 Nov 2001 11:54:12 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/251800Z/261800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N6
56.0E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N0 54.5E4, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST
OF SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5S1
95.9E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9S6 95.1E5, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. BASED ON THE INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER DISTURBANCES.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/BRYANT/KENDALL/MAYER/PIVIN/WEAVER/TON//

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