Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01a Warning Nr 020

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 26 May 2001 08:52:30 -0500

WTIO32 PGTW 261500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 020
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- NEAR 17.6N4 67.8E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N4 67.8E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 18.2N1 67.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 18.8N7 67.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 19.8N8 67.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 20.7N9 67.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 22.8N2 68.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.8N6 67.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
BOMBAY, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
AND INFRARED IMAGERY, AND A 260634Z1 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING
MISSION PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. TC 01A
SHOULD TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01A IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 23 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1,
270300Z2, 270900Z8 AND 271500Z5.//

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