Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Sep 2001 22:06:05 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 270300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- NEAR 18.8N7 64.3E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N7 64.3E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 19.0N0 63.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 19.3N3 62.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 19.5N5 61.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 19.8N8 59.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 20.5N7 57.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.9N8 64.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A, LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
AND 35 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS PULSATING CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED 36NM TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS (UKMET-O GLOBAL GRID, NOGAPS, AVN RUN OF
THE MRF, AND GFDN) HAVE SHOWN LITTLE SKILL WITH THIS SYSTEM. NOGAPS,
INDICATES A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WHILE AVN, UKMET
RUNS, AND GFDN REVEAL A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. BECAUSE OF THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE, CLIPPER, AND FIELD ANALYSIS BLENDED WITH THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS TC 02A
TRACKS BENEATH A COL IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8,
271500Z5, 272100Z2, AND 280300Z3.//

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