Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 9 Jan 2001 17:45:38 -0600

891
ABIO10 PGTW 100000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/100000Z/101800Z JAN 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091952Z JAN 01//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951Z JAN 01//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 091800Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ANDO), WAS LOCATED NEAR
28.0S0 50.7E2, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 091800Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU), WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2S9 72.7E6, AND WAS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2
132.0E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S2 132.0E6, OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA.
THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER LAND AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR
THE SYSTEM TO MOVE OUT OVER WATER AGAIN. RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES NOT DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE
IN CONVECTION, WHILE RECENT SYNOPTIC SURFACE DATA SUGGEST 15 KNOT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
       (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION: DOWNGRADE 2.B.(1) TO POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/PARKER/EDBERG//