Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 4 Oct 2001 12:54:21 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN /041800Z/051800Z OCT 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.0N9 86.0E4,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS MORNINGS 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE REGION IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN
DIFFLUENT EASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
       (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8
82.0E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S3 82.5E5 IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHEARING OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LATEST
MICROWAVE IMAGERY PLACES THE LLCC TO THE NORTHEAST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS MORNINGS 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON//

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