Subject: Indian-N: Immediate Delivery Req To Amconsul Calcutta And Amembassy Dhaka

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 15:41:09 -0500

WTIO32 PGTW 232100
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z4 --- NEAR 16.2N9 70.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N9 70.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 16.8N5 69.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 17.3N1 69.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 17.8N6 68.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 18.2N1 67.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 19.0N0 66.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.3N0 70.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
231730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE BANDING EYE FEATURE AND IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE AND PRODUCING A
MORE NORTHERLY JOG EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND STEER TC 01A ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK BY THE
MID-PERIOD. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THEN BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z9, 240900Z5, 241500Z2 AND 242100Z9.//

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