Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05s (bindu) Warning Nr 015

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Jan 2001 14:00:53 -0600

394
WTXS32 PGTW 142100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BINDU) WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- NEAR 20.4S6 68.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 68.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 21.2S5 67.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 22.0S4 65.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 22.7S1 64.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 23.5S0 63.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 67.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST OF PORT
MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05S HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD
UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 (DTG 150751Z9) AND
152100Z9 (DTG 151951Z2).//

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