Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 17 Nov 2001 11:56:45 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/171800Z/181800Z NOV 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6
75.4E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 75.0E2, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES CONVECTION MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF WEAKER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/WARREN/JACOBS/LAM/SHERRY/KUMAGA//

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