Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 19 Mar 2001 11:47:22 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/191800Z/201800Z MAR 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION 400 NM NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES
ISLAND, NEAR 14.0S5 68.0E4, HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 10 HOURS.
VISIBLE AND INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS CYCLING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A PERSISTENT L0W LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191306Z0
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED A VERY WEAK LLCC EAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANAL INDICATES WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, NEAR 15.0S6 115.4E1, HAS PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER A POSSIBLE LLCC. RECENT QUIKSCAT
AND SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASSES DO NOT REVEAL
CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAK OUTFLOW IN AN AREA EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/HARRISON/WAUGAMAN//

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