Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 6 May 2001 13:08:28 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/061800Z/071800Z MAY 01//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO
COAST OF AFRICA):
      A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
      B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
            (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N7
69.8E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N1 68.0E4 IN THE ARABIAN SEA. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
            (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
      A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
      B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
            (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2S7
129.3E5 IN THE BANDA SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
            (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 4.5S9 78.2E7 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 7.1S8 75.6E8, 200 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS NEAR
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
            (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/EDBERG//

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