Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 1 Nov 2001 03:04:56 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/010900Z/011800Z NOV 01//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311952Z OCT 01/
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 311800Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4 80.1E9 OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AND WAS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 312100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  VISIBLE ANIMATION AND A 010103Z5 SCATT PASS DEPICT THAT
THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF EX-TC 02S IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 78.7E2 OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. A 010046Z1
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) IMAGE SHOWS WEAK BANDING
FEATURES AND CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA
OF FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB.
BECAUSE OF THE EXISTENCE OF A DEFINED LLCC AND APPARENT BANDING
FEATURES, AND THAT IT IS MOVING BENEATH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/ROBERTS/WHITCOMB/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

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