Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01a Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 21 May 2001 20:39:26 -0500

WTIO32 PGTW 220300
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z4 --- NEAR 13.9N3 70.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N3 70.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 14.3N8 71.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 14.8N3 72.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 15.5N1 72.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 16.3N0 72.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 17.4N2 73.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.0N5 70.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 212330Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED
ANIMATION DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING INDICATIVE OF DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE VORTEX CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS
FORMATION OF A BANDING FEATURE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF INDIA. TC
01A IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER SOUTHERN INDIA CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z4 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220900Z3, 221500Z0, 222100Z7 AND 230300Z8.//

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