Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2002 12:39:36 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/131800Z/121800Z JUN 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8
82.2E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 78.4E9, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION IS BEING
SHEARED FROM THE NORTHWEST. A 131532Z5 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE LLCC
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION. THE
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS POLEWARD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/PIVIN/KUMAGA//

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