Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s (dianne) Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Apr 2002 21:46:57 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- NEAR 16.5S2 89.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 89.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 17.7S5 88.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 19.1S1 87.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 20.7S9 86.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 22.7S1 86.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 89.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE-JERY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A 15 NM EYE HAS DEVELOPED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WEAKENS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SIX AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, TCLAPS, TLAPS,
AND GFDN. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN 24
HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091500Z5 AND 100300Z4.//

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