Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 03b Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2002 14:13:52 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 112100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- NEAR 16.3N0 85.3E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N0 85.3E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 18.7N6 86.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 21.3N6 88.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 22.9N3 89.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 24.3N9 91.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 25.9N6 94.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.9N6 85.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW IS PRESENT TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN 111527Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSM/I) PASS REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TC 03B
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY PERIOD AND THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ABOVE THE RIDGE AXIS
INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DISSIPATION IS COMPLETE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z6, 120900Z2, 121500Z9 AND 122100Z6.//

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