Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 05 Dec 2002 11:42:30 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/051800Z/061800ZDEC2002//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
      (1) THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR 8.6N4 86.3E7 HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. VISIBLE ANIMATION AND
TRMM IMAGERY DEPICT MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. THEREFORE, THE SUSPECT AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE LLCC PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1S9 79.0E6 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.4S2 79.8E4 ABOUT 445 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A
051508Z9 SSM/I 85 GHZ (PCT) IMAGE REVEALED TWO BANDING FEATURES
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE WEAK STEERING FLOW OF A LOW/MID
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S7
59.5E9 IS NOW CENTRALLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5S3 60.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 365
NM SOUTHEAST OF THE SEYCHELLES. IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA NOW
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC HAS OPENED UP. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE GENERATING THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/RONSEE/SCHAEFER/ANDERSON//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.