Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2002 15:41:01 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 252100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 12.0S3 72.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 72.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 12.5S8 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 13.0S4 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 13.6S0 72.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 14.5S0 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 72.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A WEAK BANDING
FEATURE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES AN ELONGATED LLCC OR THE POSSIBILITY OF DUAL
CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE BLENDED WITH
THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 AND 262100Z1.//

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