Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2002 12:09:53 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/271800Z/281800Z AUG 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.4N6
64.7E7 IS RELOCATED TO A POSITION NEAR 22.0N4 62.8E6, APPROXIMATELY
230 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION. A 271412Z7 TRMM PASS DEPICTS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND VERY LITTLE CONVECTION. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN INDIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 6.3S9 77.0E4,
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AREA EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A
DIFFLUENT REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//

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