Subject: Indian-N: Ocean Reissued/301200z/301800zdec2002//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 30 Dec 2002 06:26:00 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 301200
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/301200Z/301800ZDEC2002//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8
43.3E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S1 42.8E4, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM WEST
OF MADAGASCAR IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC REMAINS SPARSE BUT HAS BECOME MORE
PERSISTENT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1010 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/INGRAM/JACOBS/VAN LOAN/MENEBROKER/COOK//

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