Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 02:50:15 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 17.4S2 79.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 79.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 18.0S9 80.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 18.5S4 81.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 19.2S2 81.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 19.9S9 82.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 80.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1035 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
060530Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 80
AND 102 KNOTS. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 200MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND UK-MET GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF
ALL DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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