Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2002 01:34:32 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 23.0S5 85.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 85.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 24.4S0 84.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 25.8S5 84.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 27.8S7 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 29.8S9 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.3S8 85.0E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WEAKENING BANDING EYE FEATURE. A 100334Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS DEPICTS CONTINUED EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
DISPLACED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONGER SHEAR SOUTH. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASINGLY STRONGER SHEAR AND
TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UK-MET GLOBAL ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS. WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND
110900Z1.//

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