Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 02b Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 May 2002 16:41:11 -0500

WTIO32 PGTW 112100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- NEAR 14.7N2 95.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N2 95.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 16.0N7 95.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 17.3N1 96.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 18.5N4 96.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 19.5N5 96.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.0N6 95.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF RANGOON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF EGRR, NOGAPS AND THE BAROTROPIC
ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 14
FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6, 120900Z2, 121500Z9 AND 122100Z6.//

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