Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 9 Apr 2002 12:45:12 -0500

WTXS22 PGTW 091730
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
195 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.0S8 128.9E0 TO 11.0S2 123.5E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
091540Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5S3
128.0E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S0 130.5E9, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5 128.8E9, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN
IN THE TIMOR SEA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG
12.0S3. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101730Z2.//

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