Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2002 13:10:57 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 231800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 3/4/20022003
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM (CRYSTAL)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC  23/12/2002 : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF
    POINT 12.1S/65.8E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY
    FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 3.0/3.0  /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 40 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30: 50 KM   SE30: 240 KM
    SW30: 200 KM   NW30: 60 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SMALL
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 13.7S / 64.4E FI=3.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 15.3S / 63.3E FI=4.0

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 17.7S / 61.0E FI=4.0

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : CONVECTION HAS REBUILT OVER
    THE CENTRE AND FURTHER DEEPENING IS THUS EXPECTED WITH UPPER
    DIVERGENCE IMPROVING ALOFT BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. TRACK IS
    FORECAST TO MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTWARD STEERED ALONG THE
    MID-LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM.=

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