Subject: Indian-S: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/020951z May 02//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 May 2002 01:49:59 -0500

WTXS21 PGTW 030630
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020951Z MAY 02//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 021000)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.8S4 64.9E9 TO 13.7S1 66.3E5
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
030600Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5
65.3E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 7.4S1 62.2E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5 65.3E4,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION AND INCREASED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM
HAS CONSOLIDATED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND TRACKED FURTHER EASTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS UNDER A REGION OF STRONG DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040630Z3.//

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