Subject: Indian-N: 1. Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Colombo And Amconsul Madras

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2002 14:32:17 -0600

WTIO21 PGTW 202000
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 1.7N8 77.9E3 TO 4.1N5 71.1E9
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
201800Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2
76.1E4.THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2 75.7E9 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2 76.1E4, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 201501Z9 SSM/I PASS SUGGESTS A NARROW BAND OF
TROUGHING IN THE REGION AND TWO POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE
200MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212000Z5.//

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