Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 22s (bonnie) Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Apr 2002 08:42:12 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 121500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z6 --- NEAR 10.5S6 114.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 114.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 10.9S0 112.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 11.6S8 109.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 12.3S6 106.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 13.2S6 104.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 10.6S7 114.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. A 121039Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION LACKS
ORGANIZATION AND IS SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 22S SHOULD MOVE IN
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON A NWP BLEND USING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL, NCEP
AVN, TLAPS, AND GFDN. TC 22S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT REMAINS NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND ENCOUNTERS EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130300Z7 AND 131500Z0.//

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