Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 May 2002 04:04:35 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 12.4S7 51.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 51.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.5S8 .6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 12.6S9 48.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 12.5S8 46.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 12.2S5 45.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 50.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090530Z7 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS.
RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE FEATURE.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN
AREA OF POINT DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM HAS AIDED INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
GUIDED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS RECENT SHORT TERM TREND OF INTENSIFICATION WILL GIVE
WAY IN THE MID PERIOD TO A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, INTERACTING WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND AVIATION MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.//

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