Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 May 2002 21:33:09 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 080300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- NEAR 12.8N1 62.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N1 62.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 13.2N6 60.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 13.6N0 59.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 14.3N8 57.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 15.2N8 55.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 17.4N2 53.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.9N2 61.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA
APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. TC 01A IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING
NOGAPS, AVIATION, UKMET SPECTRAL, AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7, 081500Z4,
082100Z1 AND 090300Z2.//

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