Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2002 11:37:41 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081800Z/091800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 7.2N9 64.3E3,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N4 66.5E7, IN THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN. A
RECENT PASS OF THE SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) DEPICTS A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PRESENT. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES CONVECTION RESIDES NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, HOWEVER CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 080600Z4 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7S7 83.6E7 AND WAS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTXS31 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.9S4
41.6E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5S9 41.8E3, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A WEAK EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS BENEATH A
REGION OF DIFFLUENCE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY MODERATE AND DEEP CONVECTION IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: JEFFRIES/BRYANT/JACOBS/CUTMAN/KUMAGA//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.