Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2002 13:15:48 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 281800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 11/12/20012002
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (IKALA)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC  28/03/2002 : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF
    POINT 20.1S/80.5E (TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
    EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 2.5/3.5  /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30: 250 KM   SE30: 600 KM
    SW30: 850 KM   NW30: 150 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1000 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SMALL
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 21.1S / 81.1E FI=2.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 22.5S / 81.0E FI=
    EXTRATROPICAL
3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 24.7S / 78.7E FI=
    EXTRATROPICAL
4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : RAPID WEAKENING DUE TI VERY
    STRONG VERTICAL SHEARING AND LOW LEVEL ENTRAINMENT OF COOL
    AIR. CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND ONLY EXISTS SOUTH OF THE
    CENTRE, WHICH IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHT IR INDOEX
    IMAGERY. EXTENTION OF WINDS ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT=

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