Subject: Indian-N: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 15:16:10 -0500

WTIO21 PGTW 222030
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N6 82.1E1 TO 16.2N9 81.5E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
221730Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N2
82.0E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N5
81.4E3 IS RELOCATED TO A POSIT NEAR 13.8N2 82.0E0, APPROXIMATELY 110
NM NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. THE RELOCATION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS.
ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALED RAINBANDS
TO
THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232030Z0.//

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