Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 11:02:08 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/201800Z/211800Z JAN 02//
REF/A//RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751 JAN 02//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 200600Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.0S9 64.2E2 AND MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS. SEE REF A
(WTXS31 PGTW 200900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S9
40.5E9 HAS DISSIPATED OVER AFRICA AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7S4
88.0E6 HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONVECTION ACTIVITY. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATED A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE 200 MB

ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE WITHIN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/BRYANT/MAYER/LAM/BOSTIC//

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