Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2002 02:23:13 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- NEAR 16.2S9 75.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 75.5E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 17.3S1 76.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 18.2S1 76.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 19.0S0 76.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 19.8S8 75.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 75.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
270530Z7 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 270412Z6 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS REVEALS A 21 NM EYE. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 102
KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS A RESULT OF
INTERACTION WITH THE MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE ENTERING THE
WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, THE UKMET
SPECTRAL, GFDN AND THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z2 AND 280900Z9.//

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