Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Nov 2002 20:41:10 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 232100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 002
      01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
        ---
      WARNING POSITION:
      231800Z4 --- NEAR 12.3N6 88.8E4
          MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
          POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
          POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
      PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
      RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        060 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        090 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                                        075 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
      REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N6 88.8E4
        ---
      FORECASTS:
      12 HRS, VALID AT:
      240600Z2 --- 13.7N1 88.9E5
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
      RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        065 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        090 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                                        075 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
      VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
        ---
      24 HRS, VALID AT:
      241800Z5 --- 14.8N3 89.0E7
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
      RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        070 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        085 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                                        085 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
      VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
      36 HRS, VALID AT:
      250600Z3 --- 15.8N4 89.2E9
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
      RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        075 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        085 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                                        085 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
      VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
      EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
      48 HRS, VALID AT:
      251800Z6 --- 16.5N2 89.6E3
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
      RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        075 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        085 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                                        085 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
      VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
        ---
      72 HRS, VALID AT:
      261800Z7 --- 18.1N0 91.5E5
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
      RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        075 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                                        075 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                                        085 NM
NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 88.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST OF THE
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A SYNOPTIC REPORT OF 42
KNOTS. TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS
AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET, AND AVN, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH

48 HOURS WHILE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 48
HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS IT TRACKS ABOVE THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9, 240900Z5,
241500Z2 AND 242100Z9.//

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