Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 20:43:58 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 020230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/020230Z/021800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011951 FEB 01/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N4
82.1E1 IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF BENGAL HAS MOVED WESTWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N9 78.6E1, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST OF SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED CYCLING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF SRI LANKA. A 011254Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS WEAKENED AS IT PASSED NEAR SRI
LANKA. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 011800Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WAS LOCATED AT 13.5S9
85.4E7 AND MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
012100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7
89.9E6 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.4S8 119.0E1
AND HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS WITHIN A
REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, DIVERGENCE IS GOOD.

A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THE FORMATION OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARA 2.B.(2). UPDATED 2.B.(1).
ADDED 2.A.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/EDBERG//

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