Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2002 15:04:26 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z5 --- NEAR 6.8N4 84.8E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.8N4 84.8E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 7.4N1 86.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 7.5N2 86.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 7.3N0 87.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 7.0N7 87.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 6.9N5 85.1E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST OF SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS. A 241406Z7 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS A CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUATORIAL BUFFER CELL AND IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), ARE SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS. NOGAPS AND GFDN KEEP THE STORM DEEPER THAN EGRR AND AVN, RESULTING IN A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE MID-PERIOD, THEN A WESTWARD TRACK AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. EGRR AND AVN INDI!
CATE MORE INFLUENCE WITH THE BUFFER CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND NOGAPS THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WITH THE EGRR AND AVN CLUSTER AFTER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z6 AND 252100Z0.//

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