Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2002 15:05:30 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z2 --- NEAR 5.7N2 83.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.7N2 83.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 6.0N6 84.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 5.8N3 85.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 5.5N0 85.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 5.0N5 86.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 5.8N3 83.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KTS. A 240300Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF THE
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUATORIAL BUFFER CELL AND
IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN),
AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AGREE IN THE EARLY PERIOD, HOWEVER, AFTER
THE EARLY PERIOD NOGAPS BEGINS TO STEER TC 05B UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POSSIBLE TWIN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AVN DEFINES THIS FEATURE AS THE DOMINANT, LARGER,
SYSTEM, WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO THE WEAKENING OF 05B AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THERE DOES EXIST
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURES AND CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF TC 05B.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z9 AND 250900Z6.//

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