Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 22s (bonnie) Warning Nr 012

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Apr 2002 09:48:24 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 151500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z9 --- NEAR 16.1S8 98.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 98.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 16.4S1 95.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 97.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A
151138Z9 SSM/I PASS. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF
RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND ONLY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE NORTHWEST REMAINS. MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING LLCC. TC 22S SHOULD TRACK TO THE WEST AND DISSIPATE UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND THE SHALLOW BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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