Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Mar 2002 14:43:27 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 122100 AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 015 AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 27.3S2 55.4E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S2 55.4E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 29.4S5 57.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 31.1S5 59.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 27.8S7 55.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH
OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WEAKENING CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. REANALYSIS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS NEARING THE MID-POINT OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD.
TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT:
ADJUSTED FORECAST INTENSITIES AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z3.//

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