Subject: Indian-N: Ocean

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Mar 2002 16:32:20 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 231200
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5
83.3E4, IS NOW NEAR 9.8S7 77.0E4, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WITH INCREASINGLY
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE EARLIER DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD
OVER THE SYSTEM INDICATES ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TIME BEING.
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UW-CIMMS CHARTS SHOW THERE IS WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/SHERRY

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