Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 6 May 2002 14:04:54 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/061800/071800Z MAY 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751Z MAY 02//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/052251Z MAY 02//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N2
66.3E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N3 65.6E7 OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED NEAR 14.0N5 70.0E7, UNDER A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5
KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
SEE REF B (WTIO21 PGTW 052300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 060600Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 10.6S7 61.0E7, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/LAM/TON//

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