Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01a Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 21:06:07 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 090300
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- NEAR 14.3N8 58.8E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N8 58.8E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 15.1N7 57.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 15.9N5 55.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 16.9N6 54.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.1N0 53.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.5N0 58.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. A 082159Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSM/I) PASS REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES OMAN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND,
ENTRAINING DRY AIR. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG OMAN=S SOUTHERN COAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF UKMET SPECTRAL MODEL, ALL FORECAST AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THEREFORE THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND ON THE FOLLOWING DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, AVIATION AND
GFDN MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z8, 091500Z5, 092100Z2 AND 100300Z4.//

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