Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 17:29:55 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 15.5S1 78.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 78.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.7S3 78.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.2S9 80.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 16.6S3 81.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 17.2S0 82.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 78.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A 041623Z6
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEVELOPED
EYE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 40-NM IRREGULAR EYE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY SOUTH. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AVIATION (AVN), AND UK-MET
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND BLENDS ALL DYNAMIC MODELS TO ACCOUNT FOR
COMPENSATING ERRORS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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