Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 22:55:51 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 110300
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-JERY) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 21.2S5 88.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 88.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 23.3S8 90.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 26.4S2 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0 89.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE-JERY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 110000Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 110000Z2 SSMI PASS ALSO INDICATES A
COMPLETELY EXPOSED LLCC. THE SSMI PASS ALSO SHOWS A LARGE BAND OF
DRY AIR TO THE NORTH BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THESE FACTORS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS WELL UNDER WAY.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24 HOURS. TC 21S
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF SEVEN AVAILABLE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INCLUDING
NOGAPS, UK-MET OFFICE, NCEP AVN, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND GFDN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 111500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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