Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 11s (eddy) Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 15:10:43 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 252100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 16.3S0 88.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 88.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 18.0S9 88.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 19.5S5 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 20.3S5 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 21.1S4 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 88.5E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251235Z8 TRMM PASS SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 11S
SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH INITIALLY, AND THEN TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARDS AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 11S SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE
UK MET GLOBAL, NOGAPS, GFDN, TCLPS, TLAPS, AND AVIATION MODELS. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 AND 262100Z1.//

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