Subject: Indian-N: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 5 May 2002 18:24:46 -0500

WTIO21 PGTW 052300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 052251Z MAY 02//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 190 NM RADIUS OF 8.7N5 67.0E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 052200Z9 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N5 67.0E3. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS CONTINUED EXPANSION
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ORGANIZING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS OVER THE EAST AND NORTHERN
QUADRANTS. THIS EVENINGS QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED RAIN FLAGGED
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE SAME VICINITY. AVAILABLE NWP
(NOGAPS, AVN AND UKMET SPECTRAL) AGREE ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND
A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 062300Z1.//

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