Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 31 Aug 2002 13:08:27 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/301800Z AUG 02/011800Z SEP 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5S9
80.0E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0S6 80.0E8, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTS WITHIN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//

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