Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 13 Mar 2002 08:48:08 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 131500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z7 --- NEAR 29.5S6 56.7E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S6 56.7E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 30.3S6 57.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 29.7S8 57.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH
OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL WITH THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 30 NM TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 24
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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