Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 22 Dec 2002 11:59:16 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N9
79.3E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.1N4 80.6E4, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH
OF SRI LANKA. A 221433Z5 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE
200MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AREA EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. SEE REF A
(WTIO21 PGTW 221300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5S2
69.5E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0S9 70.2E9, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULAION CENTER. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD
DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/STATEN/KUMAGA//

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