Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2002 11:53:22 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/091800Z/101800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090751Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.9N2
66.6E8, IS NOW RELOCATED NEAR 4.1N5 68.1E5, IN THE NORTH
INDIAN OCEAN. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT, HOWEVER CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 090600Z5 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.6S 84.8E0 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTXS31 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.5S9
41.8E3 IS DISSIPATED AND NO LONGER HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/BRYANT/JACOBS/CUTMAN/KUMAGA//

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