Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2002 05:12:49 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 201100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/201100Z/201800ZDEC2002//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.3N6
73.2E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.1N3 75.9E1, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION OVER A WELL-
DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSSIBLE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH.
A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALS THE
CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH. 200MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/RONSSE/SPANSKI/ANDERSON/NUTONGLA//

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