Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 May 2002 12:49:40 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071800/081800Z MAY 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071351Z MAY 02//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751Z MAY 02//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 071200Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.0N4 62.8E6, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 071500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 11.1N3 65.6E7 IS
NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA 1.A.(1) FOR
DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 4.8N2 94.7E0,
APPROXIMATELY 80 WEST OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS CYCLING SCATTERED CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS IN A DIVERGENT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THAILAND. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 070600Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 10.9S0 59.2E6, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST OF THE
NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, AND WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 070900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/LAM/TON//

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