Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 15:06:37 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 14.1S6 80.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 80.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 14.3S8 79.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 14.5S0 78.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 14.9S4 77.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.2S8 77.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 80.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AND THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. TC 12S IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND MOVE POLEWARD AS THE SYSTEM IS AFFECTED BY
STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS,
GFDN, AVIATION (AVN), AND BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TCLAPS AND TLAPS
MODELS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM AND DEVELOP
A PERIPHERY RIDGE AND SUGGEST CONTINUED CHANGE TO A POLEWARD TRACK
AFTER 36 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6.//

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