Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 22s (bonnie) Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Apr 2002 21:46:12 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 140300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z5 --- NEAR 12.4S7 107.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 107.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 13.3S7 105.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 14.5S0 102.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 15.7S3 100.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 16.8S5 99.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 106.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED 290 NM SOUTH OF JAVA,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. A 132315Z5 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. TC 22S IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS AND REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR NORTHWEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND THE
MEDIUM BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 AND 150300Z9.//

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