Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 12:47:40 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N0
82.5E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N5 81.4E3, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
DEPICTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR THE FIX POSIT AND TROUGHING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//

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