Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01a Warning Nr 013

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 May 2002 21:13:46 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 100300
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z1 --- NEAR 15.7N3 54.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N3 54.1E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 16.8N5 52.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.5N4 51.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.0N7 53.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA
APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF YEMEN NEAR THE OMAN
BORDER, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN SECTOR, WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST. LANDFALL IS
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE 9 HOUR MARK ALONG YEMEN=S NORTHERN COAST NEAR
THE OMAN BORDER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. ALL FORECAST AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
AVIATION, UKMET SPECTRAL AND GFDN MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0, 101500Z7 AND
102100Z4.//

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