Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 08 Nov 2002 11:40:28 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N9
86.0E4 HAS WEAKENED. A 081449Z6 SSM/I PASS INDICATED ONLY WEAK
CONVECTION AND NO SUGGESTION OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THEREFORE THE AREA IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ATANG) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 8.8S6 52.6E3, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS INTACT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE AREA IS UNDER GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS A RESULT OF BEING NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. A
081447Z4 SSM/I PASS SUGGESTS ONLY THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HEATH/DUKES/COOK//

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