Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 9 Mar 2002 08:16:36 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- NEAR 12.9S2 51.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 51.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.3S8 51.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 16.2S9 51.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.3S2 51.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 20.5S7 51.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7  51.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE D=AMBRE, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 25 NM EYE WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. TC 18S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND A TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
18S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH MADAGASCAR=S
EAST COAST AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET
GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND 101500Z7.//

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