Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 24s (errol) Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 13 May 2002 15:15:14 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 132100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 8.8S6 95.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S6 95.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 9.4S3 96.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 10.4S5 96.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 11.6S8 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 13.1S5 96.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 8.9S7 96.0E5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL) HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211
NM MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
AND 35 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION AND A 131515Z6 MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DECREASING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL PERIPHERY RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 24S IS
FORECASTED
TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS INTO AN
INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INCLUDE NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AVIATION, GFDN, AND THE
BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE BLEND OF ALL THE AIDS.
HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND
142100Z8.//

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