Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 07 Nov 2002 09:17:45 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 071330 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/071330Z/071800ZNOV2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZNOV2002//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 7.1N8 86.2E6,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST OF SRI LANKA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING
AND DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 070600Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ATANG) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6S4 58.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR, AND HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 070900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED JUSTIFICATION IN PARA 3.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/CUTMAN/ANDERSON//

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