Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 05 Sep 2002 09:49:16 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/051500Z/051800Z SEP 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS NEAR 3.6S9 63.2E1,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM WEST-NORTWESTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE BURST OF CONVECTION AND OBVIOUS
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MAY BE
FORMING BENEATH THIS BURST OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A RECENT TRMM
PASS WAS INCONCLUSIVE OF ANY LLCC. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
AREA OF CONVECTION IS UNDER A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MID-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES GOOD VORTICITY IS PRESENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1002 MB. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT UPPER AIR CONDITIONS AND THE MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HEATH/DUKES/MCCOPPIN//

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