Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 7 Apr 2002 13:18:50 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071800Z/081800Z APR 02//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/071351Z APR 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 071200Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 95.8E2, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, AND WAS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 071500) FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S4
99.1E9 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR 8.0S8
134.0E8, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN. UW-CIMSS ANALYSES
INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA WITH FAIR
OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEE LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR 7.5S2
66.0E2, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 071336Z0
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEE LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/JACOBS/SHERRY//

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