Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 14:31:19 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z9 --- NEAR 20.6S8 58.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 58.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 21.6S9 58.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 22.7S1 58.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 24.3S9 58.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 25.8S5 59.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 58.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 191730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC
15S HAS A 15 NM IRREGULAR EYE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
BEGINNING IN THE MID-PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS,
GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO SLOW AND FAST
CLUSTERS, WITH GFDN HAVING THE GREATEST TRANSLATION SPEED INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE FLOW. ALL THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM
WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD BIAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND 202100Z5.//

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