Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2002 09:05:59 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 221300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/221300Z/221800Z MAR 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5S2
81.5E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5 83.3E4, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED VISIBLE

IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS ALONG WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MIGRATING TOWARDS THE CENTER

OF THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UW-CIMSS CHARTS SHOW
THERE IS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 11.0S2.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL

FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

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