Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 11s (eddy) Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 14:53:53 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 242100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z5 --- NEAR 13.3S7 88.2E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 88.2E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 14.2S7 88.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 15.3S9 87.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 16.5S2 87.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 17.4S2 86.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 88.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (EDDY), APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE VORTEX CENTER AND IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OFF OF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA SHOULD INFLUENCE THE SYSTEMS

TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE UKMET
SPECTRAL, THE AVIATION RUN OF THE MRF, AND NOGAPS MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z6 AND 252100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//

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