Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 14:25:37 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z8 --- NEAR 15.4S0 67.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 67.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 16.6S3 66.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 17.2S0 64.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 17.4S2 63.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 17.5S3 62.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 67.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
181730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. TC 10S IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS
THE STEERING FLOW POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND
192100Z3.//

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