Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 04 Dec 2002 11:47:01 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/041800Z/051800ZDEC2002//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
      (1) A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR 8.6N4 86.3E7. VISIBLE
ANIMATION DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) A BROAD LLCC HAS DEVELOPED OVER A NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH
NEAR 8.1S9 79.0E6 ABOUT 390 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. VISIBLE
ANIMATION DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
MORNINGS 200 MB ANAL REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARD THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THEREFORE, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/RONSEE/ANDERSON//

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