Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 22s (bonnie) Warning Nr 011

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2002 21:36:21 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 150300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 15.5S1 101.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 101.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 16.8S5 99.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 17.5S3 98.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 17.8S6 97.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 18.2S1 96.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 101.1E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
142330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142302Z2 SSM/I PASS. THE
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BUT REMAINS DISORGANIZED. RECENT
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 22S REMAINS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR NORTH
WEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK-MET
SPECTRAL, NCEP AVIATION, AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2 AND 160300Z0.//

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