Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 232021zoct2002//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 15:41:02 -0500

WTIO21 PGTW 232030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 232021ZOCT2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222021ZOCT2002//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 222030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N6 82.4E4 TO 15.2N8 80.1E9
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231930Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.4N8 81.6E5. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N5
81.4E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N8 81.6E5, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 222030)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242030Z1.//

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