Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 5 Mar 2002 10:11:16 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 051630
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0S1 66.7E9 TO 13.2S6 62.2E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051130Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 65.7E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S4
66.5E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 65.7E8, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS INDICATES A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE LLCC. A 051414Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS ALSO
REVEALS IMPROVED SYSTEM ORGANIZATION. 200MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA
IS UNDER WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061630Z6.//

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