Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Oct 2002 01:29:46 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 060700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/060700Z/061800Z OCT 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 7.6S3 75.9E1,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEAL CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER A WEAK, SOMEWHAT BROAD, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA//

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