Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 May 2002 05:01:07 -0500

WTIO32 PGTW 110900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z8 --- NEAR 12.7N0 95.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N0 95.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 14.3N8 95.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 15.8N4 95.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 17.4N2 96.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 19.1N1 96.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 22.5N9 98.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.1N5 95.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF
RANGOON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 MULTISPRECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF EGRR, AVN, NOGAPS AND THE MEDIUM BAROTROPIC
ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 14
FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.