Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 05b Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Dec 2002 14:19:29 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 252100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z6 --- NEAR 7.9N6 86.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N6 86.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 7.2N9 87.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 6.4N0 87.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 7.7N4 86.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST OF SRI
LANKA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8 INFRARED AND RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 05B SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 35 KNOTS, AND TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES AND INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, TLAPS, TCLAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5 AND UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR) CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS. AVN AND TLAPS
REFLECT THE FORECAST SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE REMAINING MODELS
SHOW NO INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SYSTEM AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, AVN, AND TLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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