Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 21 Dec 2002 11:47:18 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2
76.1E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.7N9 79.3E9, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
211306Z3 PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS SURFACE TROUGHING AND
CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 211447Z9 SSM/I
PASS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE 200MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AREA EQUATORWARD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO PGTW 211130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/STATEN/KUMAGA//

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