Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/091800z/101800zdec2002//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 09 Dec 2002 11:06:44 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/091800Z/101800ZDEC2002//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6
56.8E9 HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 53.0E8, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS WEAK AND IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED. THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND CYCLIC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/INGRAM/JACOBS/JUAREZ/NUTONGLA/COOK//

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