Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 14:48:06 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 222100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- NEAR 20.3S5 54.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 54.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 21.1S4 53.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 22.1S5 52.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 23.3S8 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 24.5S1 52.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 54.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
NORTHWEST OF REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 38 NM EYE
DIAMETER, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, IS NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TC 10S (DINA) WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH, LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WILL STEER THE
SYSTEM POLEWARD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET) WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED TRACK SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z4 AND 232100Z8.//

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