Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 12:15:34 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 061800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 13/8/20012002
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE (FRANCESCA)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC  06/02/2002 : 17.8S/80.8E (SEVENTEEN
    DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
    EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 4.0/4.5  /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 65 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30: 280 KM   SE30: 450 KM
    SW30: 350 KM   NW30: 220 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 18.6S / 81.5E FI=4.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 19.3S / 81.8E FI=4.0

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 20.8S / 82.3E FI=3.5

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : T=4.0+ CI=4.5-.
FRANCESCA SHOULD ENTER INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR, SO ITS INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY.=

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