Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2002 12:10:25 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 261800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N1
89.0E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N6 89.7E4, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST
OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST AND CYCLING. A RECENT TRMM PASS SHOWS LITTLE
ORGANIZATION NEAR THE SURFACE, BUT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
WELL-ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS IN
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 261200Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S4 59.8E2, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70
KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 261500) FOR MORE
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7S2
88.2E8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S7 88.9E5, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION
DECOUPLED WEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT THE AREA HAS NOT DEVELOPED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT STILL SHOWS A WEAK FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. SEE
REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 261800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/KENDALL/KUMAGA/STATEN//

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