Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 8 May 2002 17:34:27 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- NEAR 12.0S3 53.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 53.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 12.2S5 51.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 12.5S8 49.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 12.8S1 48.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 13.0S4 46.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 52.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INCREASED OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE HAS AIDED THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RECENT SHORT TERM TREND OF
INTENSIFICATION WILL GIVE WAY IN THE MID PERIOD TO A SLOW WEAKENING
OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR,
INTERACTING WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND AVIATION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//

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