Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Feb 2002 11:14:26 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/231800Z/241800Z FEB 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2S4
40.8E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.2S7 40.9E3 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION IS ALIGNED WITH
A LINE OF CONVERGENCE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION AND
CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED APART. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1S9
109.2E2 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A SUSPECT AREA
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN//

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