Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 24s (errol) Warning Nr 002 Relocated

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 May 2002 04:02:22 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 6.2S8 97.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S8 97.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 6.4S0 97.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 6.7S3 96.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 7.0S7 96.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 7.2S9 95.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 6.3S9 97.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS DRIFTED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION WAS RELOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION BASED ON
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS
REVEALED WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WEST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED IMAGERY
INDICATES DECREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 24S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVES EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  23S (KESINY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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