Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:15:33 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/171800Z/181800Z JAN 02//
REF/A//RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170621 JAN 02//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NEAR 7.0S7 75.8E0 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S5 73.8E8 AND IS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP BANDING FEATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. SEE REF A (WTSX21 PGTW 170630) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 14.5S 44.5E, IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AND HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION
WITHIN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 170319Z QUIKSCAT
PASS SUGGESTS A BROAD LLCC POSITIONED WITHIN A ELONGATED TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 1007MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/LEEJOICE/JACOBS/SHERRY/KUMAGA//

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