Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 02:27:10 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z0 --- NEAR 26.1S9 62.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S9 62.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 26.6S4 63.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 27.1S0 65.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 26.2S0 62.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 15S HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN,
AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS AGREE IN TRACK DIRECTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR TC 15S, BUT DIFFER IN FORECAST
SPEED, WITH GFDN REMAINING THE FASTEST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS MINUS
GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNING IS AT 222100Z7.//

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