Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Mar 2002 08:53:53 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 121500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z6 --- NEAR 26.4S2 54.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S2 54.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 28.9S9 56.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 31.1S5 58.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 32.8S3 60.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 34.1S8 62.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 27.0S9 55.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTH OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
121100Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY
RESIDES TO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EXTENT HAS
REMAINED CONSTANT OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. TC 18S SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN,
AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 AND 131500Z0.//

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