Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Nov 2002 14:26:13 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 232100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z4 --- NEAR 12.3N6 88.8E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N6 88.8E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 13.7N1 88.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 14.8N3 89.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 15.8N4 89.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 16.5N2 89.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 18.1N0 91.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.6N9 88.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST OF THE
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A SYNOPTIC REPORT OF 42
KNOTS. TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS
AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET, AND AVN, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
48 HOURS WHILE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 48
HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AS IT TRACKS ABOVE THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9, 240900Z5,
241500Z2 AND 242100Z9.//

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