Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 02:56:52 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 16.1S8 78.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 78.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.4S1 79.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 16.8S5 79.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 17.3S1 80.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 18.0S9 81.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 78.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A
RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A WELL-
DEVELOPED EYE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER. 200MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, TLAPS, TCLAPS,
AND UK-MET GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL DYNAMIC MODELS TO ACCOUNT FOR
COMPENSATING ERRORS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  13S (CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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