Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 6 Apr 2002 20:15:29 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061051Z APR 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 12.4S7 98.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 98.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 13.1S5 96.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 13.9S3 94.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 14.8S3 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 15.9S5 89.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 97.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN ABOUT
76 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. TC 21S HAS TRACED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
SATELLITE ANIMATION AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF OF THE
WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, AND AVN) WERE
USED AS THE BASIS OF OUR FORECAST. TC 21S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7
IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 061051Z APR 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 061100) NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.//

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