Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 12:01:14 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 160600Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 52.9E6, 160 NM EAST OF MADAGASCAR, TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2S9 51.6E2 IS NOW THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA 2.A.(1) FOR DETAILS.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 15.0S6 68.0E4, APPROXIMATELY
500 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ON THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM TC 15S. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/MAYER/LAM/TON//

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