Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 8 Mar 2002 20:21:32 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 090300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- NEAR 11.6S8 52.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 52.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 12.6S9 52.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.3S8 51.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 16.2S9 50.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.2S1 51.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 52.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST OF CAPE D=AMBRE, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
2 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 24 NM EYE. TC 18S IS
AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HAS BEGUN TO
MAKE A POLEWARD TURN TOWARDS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM=S TRACK SPEED HAS SLOWED BUT IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE THE POLEWARD TURN IS COMPLETE. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS ITS WESTERN HALF INTERACTS WITH
MADAGASCAR=S EAST COAST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST PASSES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH, LIMITING THE OUTFLOW OF
THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS COMPRISE GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS
AND UK MET GLOBAL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4.//

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