Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 12:30:02 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 041800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 9/8/20012002
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (FRANCESCA)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC  04/02/2002 : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF
    POINT 15.5S/77.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
    SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 6.0/6.0 MOINS /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 100 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30: 280 KM   SE30: 300 KM
    SW30: 300 KM   NW30: 280 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 16.0S / 78.1E FI=6.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 16.4S / 78.4E FI=6.5

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 17.2S / 79.4E FI=6.0

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : T=CI=6.0+. THE OUTFLOW IN
    ALTITUDE IS VERY GOOD FOR THIS INTENSIFYING VERY SMALL
    SYSTEM. MODELS PRODUCTS ARE VERY DIFFERENTS. THE TURN
    SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD INDICATES THAT IT IS NOW UNDER THE
    STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY A HIGH AT 400 HPA NORTHEAST OF IT.=

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