Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 232330z Mar 02

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 23 Mar 2002 16:49:34 -0600

WTXS22 PGTW 231200
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 232330Z MAR 02
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 225 NM RADIUS OF 11.5S7 76.4E7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231730Z6 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 77.4E8. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4S2
80.9E7, IS NOW NEAR 10.0S1 77.5E9, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN MINOR
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). HOWEVER ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETRY PASSES ALSO INDICATE A BROAD LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS AND
UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE
PRODUCTS INDICATE STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASING TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242330Z4.//

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