Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s (dianne) Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Apr 2002 08:50:08 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 15.4S0 90.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 90.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.7S4 88.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.1S0 86.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.8S8 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 21.7S0 85.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 90.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED A DEVELOPING CLOUD FILLED BANDING EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPROVED SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF SIX AVAILABLE NWP
MODELS (NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND GFDN).
TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS BENEATH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.//

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