Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 22s (bonnie) Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 09:55:05 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 111500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 10.0S1 119.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 119.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 10.1S2 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 10.3S4 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 10.6S7 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 11.1S3 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 119.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED ON THE WEST COAST OF
SUMBA ISLAND IN THE SAVU SEA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED A DECREASE IN CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM PASSED OVER SUMBA
ISLAND. 200 MB ANALYSIS AND UW CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A MARGINAL
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF
THE INDONESIAN ISLANDS EAST OF JAVA. THEREAFTER, IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND AND
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SEVEN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
THAT INCLUDE NOGAPS, UK-MET OFFICE, NCEP AVIATION, TCLAPS, TLAPS,
AFWA MM5 AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  21S (DIANNE-JERY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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