Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 27 Mar 2002 14:41:07 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 272100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 17.4S2 76.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 76.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 18.1S0 77.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 18.7S6 77.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.4S4 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 19.9S9 77.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 76.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
MICROWAVE AND 271730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102
AND 115 KNOTS. A 271459Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION
(TRMM) PASS REVEALS THAT THERE IS NO LONGER AN EYE FEATURE AND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-LEVEL
VORTEX. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE MID-LEVEL HAS ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS KEPT THE CURRENT SOA WITH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. TC 20S SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES DECOUPLED AND ENTRAINS COOLER AIR. TC
20S IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. THEN, AS IT
WEAKENS, THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
SHOULD STEER IT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, THE UKMET SPECTRAL, AFWA MM5, NGPS, GFDN
AND THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 271800Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 AND 282100Z3.//

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