Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2002 12:10:24 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 241800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 5/4/20022003
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (CRYSTAL)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC  24/12/2002 : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF
    POINT 14.3S/62.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
    SIXTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 4.0/4.0 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 55 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30: 80 KM   SE30: 230 KM
    SW30: 280 KM   NW30: 120 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1000 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 15.5S / 61.2E FI=4.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 16.6S / 60.6E FI=4.5

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 17.7S / 59.9E FI=5.0

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST TRACK OF CRYSTAL
    REMAINS SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED ALONG THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
    PRESENT EAST OF MASCAREIGNS.=

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