Subject: Indian-N: 02 Active Tropical Cyclones In North Io

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Dec 2001 14:27:37 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 312100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VAMEI) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z3 --- NEAR 5.5N0 91.2E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.5N0 91.2E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 5.9N4 90.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 6.4N0 89.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 6.9N5 87.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 7.3N0 86.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR  5.6N1   91.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VAMEI), LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL, HAS
DRIFTED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATION AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THIS MORNINGS 200 MB
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER
THE REGION. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 05B SHOULD TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. LITTLE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS BENEATH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z0 AND 012100Z4.//

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