Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Nov 2002 04:44:26 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 150830
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6S2
77.6E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S4 76.1E4, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CYCLING
DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A
150051Z2 QUIKSCAT PASS AND ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA OF
CONVECTION AND ELONGATED TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS GOOD DIVERGENCE WITH BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRAED TO GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED SUSPECT AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA//

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