Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 2 Mar 2002 01:57:18 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 020800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/020800Z/021800Z MAR 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 11.4S6 64.9E9,
APPROXIMATELY 510 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE REGION LIES BENEATH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADD FAIR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/MAYER/LAM/TON/WEAVER//

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