Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 00:24:06 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 020630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/020630Z/021800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011951 FEB 01/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N9
78.6E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N0 78.0E5, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM OFF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIAN. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PERSISTS SOUTH OF DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THIS EVENINGS 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 011800Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WAS LOCATED AT 13.5S9
85.4E7 AND MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
012100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7
89.9E6 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8
119.0E1 HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A LLCC NEAR
RECENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS BENEATH A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEAL LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING OUTFLOW CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(2) TO FAIR.
CORRECTED REF TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IN AMPN LINE.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/MORRIS/LAM/WEAVER//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.