Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 23 Dec 2002 15:10:47 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231151ZDEC2002//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z4 --- NEAR 4.9N3 81.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.9N3 81.9E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 5.4N9 82.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 5.7N2 83.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 5.6N1 84.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 5.3N8 85.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 5.0N5 82.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B HAS DEVELOPED OVER A NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF SRI LANKA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B HAS TRACKED
NORTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 231730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SSMI/ IMAGERY, AND
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WITHIN THE
STEERING FLOW OF THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EQUATORIAL BUFFER CELL AND IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, AND UKMET GLOBAL)
INITIALIZED THE VORTEX FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT POSITION.
HOWEVER, ALL REVEAL A DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A POSSIBLE TWIN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR
3.0S3 85.0E3. AVN AND UKMET DEFINE THIS FEATURE AS THE DOMINANT,
LARGER, SYSTEM WHICH IS WHY THE MODELS LOSE 05B LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION BELOW THE EQUATOR NEAR THIS POSITION HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SO, THE SCENARIO SEEMS POSSIBLE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 231151Z DEC 02 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 231200) NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z5 AND 242100Z9.//

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