Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/211800z/221800znov2002//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 21 Nov 2002 11:29:32 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/211800Z/221800ZNOV2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZNOV2002//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 8.5N3 90.0E9,
APPROXIMATELY 360 WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUMATRA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DISORGANIZED AND CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE REGION, HOWEVER IT REMAINS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BY VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 211200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BOURA) LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S3 55.4E4, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 211500) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/INGRAM/JACOBS/SHERRY/JUAREZ/ANDERSON//

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