Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2002 02:24:45 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z6 --- NEAR 18.9S8 77.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 77.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 20.1S3 78.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 20.9S1 78.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 21.6S9 76.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 22.9S3 75.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 78.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
280530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. A
280553Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS SLIGHTLY DECOUPLED TO THE
NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX AND THAT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 20S HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. TC 20S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE AND ENTRAIN
COOLER AIR. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND
THEN TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, THE UKMET SPECTRAL, NGPS, GFDN AND
THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 AND 290900Z0.//

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