Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 01a Warning Nr 012

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 May 2002 16:21:56 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 092100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- NEAR 15.6N2 55.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N2 55.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 16.7N4 53.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 18.3N2 52.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.9N5 54.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
WESTERN SECTOR, WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OMAN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
LAND, ENTRAINING DRY AIR. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED NEAR THE 13 HOUR
MARK ALONG OMAN=S SOUTHERN COAST NEAR THE BORDER OF YEMEN. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. ALL FORECAST AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, AVIATION, UKMET SPECTRAL
AND GFDN MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 14
FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4, 100900Z0 AND 101500Z7.//

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