Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 22s (bonnie) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Apr 2002 22:09:42 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 130300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- NEAR 11.4S6 111.2E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 111.2E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 12.1S4 108.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 13.0S4 105.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 14.3S8 103.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 16.1S8 100.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 110.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED 200 NM SOUTH OF JAVA,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 122217Z5 QUIKSCAT PASS. THE INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. TC 22S
REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR NORTH WEST CAPE, AUSTRALIA AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED ON A NWP BLEND USING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, TLAPS,
AND GFDN. THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 22S HAS BEEN HINDERED AS IT TRACKS
NEAR THE COAST OF JAVA, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM JAVA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8.//

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