Subject: Indian-N: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Dec 2002 02:08:50 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 250900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY COLOMBO AND AMCONSUL MADRAS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z3 --- NEAR 7.6N3 85.6E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N3 85.6E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 8.0N8 86.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 7.7N4 87.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 7.2N9 88.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 6.5N1 88.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 7.7N4 85.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST OF SRI
LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 250530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. A 250245Z8 SSM/I PASS
DEPICTS A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION AT THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS FROM
12 HOURS AGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS
(LLCC). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE EQUATORIAL
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EQUATORIAL BUFFER CELL AND IS FORECAST
TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA
MM5 AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS.
AVN AND AFWA MM5 INDICATE THE STEERING REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE BUFFER CELL TO THE SOUTH, FOR A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE
REMAINING MODELS KEEP THE STORM DEEPER, RESULTING IN A NORTHEASTERLY
TRACK THROUGH THE EARLY PERIOD, THEN A WESTWARD TRACK AS THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. THE
NORTHEASTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK HAS NOT VERIFIED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND THE SYSTEM HAS NOT INCREASED IN INTENSITY, MAKING THIS
TRACK LESS LIKELY. HENCE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS IN THE EARLY PERIOD AND A FOCUS ON MM5
AFTERWARDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z0 AND 260900Z7.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.