Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 08:14:30 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 191500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- NEAR 20.1S3 59.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 59.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 21.5S8 58.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 22.9S3 58.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 24.6S2 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 26.1S9 60.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6   58.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 191130Z5 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S MAINTAINS A 10 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH
DECREASING CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH
DIFLUENT FLOW AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS,
GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON FORECAST
TRACK AND SPEED. GFDN INDICATES A STRONG SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC TROUGH. ALL THE
OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM, TRACKING IT SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z3 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3, 200300Z5, 200900Z1
AND 201500Z8.//
BT
#0001

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