Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 06 Sep 2002 15:23:53 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4S7
62.0E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9S2 58.4E7, IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN
OCEAN. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE
PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 061408Z9 SSM/I PASS SHOWS
IMPROVED SYSTEM ORGANIZATION IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS UNDER THE
SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND WINDS SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR. JTWC EXPECTS TO UPGRADE THIS
SUSPECT AREA TO GOOD WITHIN THE NEXT 06 HOURS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT WILL BE ISSUED AT THAT TIME.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/KENDALL/RONSSE/SCHAEFER/EDBERG/COOK
BT

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.