Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 12:22:45 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/011800Z/021800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010151 FEB 01/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N4
82.1E1 IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF BENGAL, HAS MOVED WESTWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N9 78.6E1, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST OF SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED CYCLING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF SRI LANKA. A 011254Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS WEAKENED AS IT PASSED NEAR SRI
LANKA. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7
89.9E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S9 86.1E5, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM WEST
OF THE COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AND IS THE SUBJECT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (SEE REF A). SATELLITE ANIMATION
INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE

IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/EDBERG//

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