Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 16 Jun 2002 13:14:55 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 161800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/161800Z/171800Z JUN 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.6N6
67.3E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N2 67.5E8, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST
OF BOMBAY, INDIA IN THE ARABIAN SEA. FIELD ANALYSIS AND A RECENT
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM) PASS INDICATE THE AREA
OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORTEX. SURFACE
ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA,
BUT NO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
VERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT. 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND IN A
REGION OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DATE IN MANOP AND SUBJECT
LINES.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN//

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