Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s (dianne-jery) Warning Nr 010

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 09:56:06 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 111500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-JERY) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 22.7S1 89.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S1 89.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 24.6S2 89.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 89.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (DIANNE-JERY) IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM)
PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL WITH THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SEVEN AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK-MET OFFICE, NCEP AVN,
TCLAPS, TLAPS, AFWA MM5 AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111200Z5 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THEE FINAL
WARNING.//

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