Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 20 Sep 2002 12:40:43 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/201800Z/211800Z SEP 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N7
89.3E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N9 87.2E7, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED AND RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS DECOUPLED FROM THE CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION. NEW DEEP CONVECTION FORMED IS BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST.
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 201500Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATE THAT THE LLCC HAS OPENED UP AND IS NOW
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
WEAK OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO DEGRADED CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY. NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA/JUAREZ//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.