Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 14:57:50 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 032100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 14.8S3 78.2E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 78.2E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 15.4S0 77.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 16.0S7 77.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 16.4S1 76.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 16.7S4 76.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 78.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED IN
INTENSIFYING. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM RESIDES NEAR THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE PERIPHERY RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET
GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AVIATION (AVN), AND BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. ONE
CLUSTER OF AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND GFDN, DEVELOP THE
PERIPHERY RIDGE AND MOVE THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
OTHER AIDS, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND EGRR, MOVE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TOWARD
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS MINUS NOGAPS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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