Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 03 Nov 2002 15:53:24 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 032130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/032130Z/041800ZNOV2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032051ZNOV2002//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N0
60.2E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N9 57.2E4, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MOGADISHU, SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEAL A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED CYCLING
DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE WEST. A 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9S5
68.8E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8S4 67.6E9, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING
LLCC. A 031722Z5 SSMI IMAGE INDICATES INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN THE
MID-LEVELS WITH AN IMPROVED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE AREA
TRACKS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS PGTW 032100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION OF REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 2.B.(1) TO GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/DANIEL/RONSSE/SCHAEFER/EDBERG//

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