Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 May 2002 03:06:33 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 090900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 14.6N1 57.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N1 57.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 15.4N0 56.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 16.4N1 54.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 17.7N5 53.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.8N3 57.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS
UNFLAGGED 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.
ANIMATED IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN SECTOR, WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BUT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OMAN
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND, ENTRAINING DRY AIR. LANDFALL IS
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE 30 HOUR MARK ALONG OMAN=S SOUTHERN COAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF UKMET SPECTRAL MODEL, ALL FORECAST AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
NOGAPS, AVIATION AND GFDN MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z5 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5, 092100Z2, 100300Z4 AND
100900Z0.//

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