Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/101800z/111800zdec2002//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 Dec 2002 11:08:06 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 101800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/101800Z/111800ZDEC2002//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3
53.0E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S1 49.0E3, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED
AND IS FULLY EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LLCC AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND CYCLIC. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/INGRAM/JACOBS/JUAREZ/COOK//

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