Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 4 May 2002 15:15:22 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 10.1S2 65.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 65.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 10.5S6 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 10.9S0 63.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 11.2S4 62.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 11.4S6 60.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.2S3 65.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 041730Z5 SSM/I PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. USE OF THE
37 GHZ CHANNEL ON THE SSM/I PASS HELPED TO PINPOINT THE VORTEX. THE
MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DECOUPLED TO THE
WEST. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND A MID-LAT LOW MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TRACK
OF TC 23S THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS,
UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MESOSCALE MM5) WAS USED AS A BASIS
FOR OUR FORECAST. TC 23S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS BENEATH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND
052100Z8.//

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