Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 11:31:02 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/291800Z/301800Z JAN 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.0N3
90.0E9 OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF BENGAL HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN INDUCED BY THE WESTERLY WIND BURST EVENT NEAR
THE EQUATOR AND THE MODERATE NORTHEAST MONSOONAL FLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6
99.9E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 95.1E5 JUST WEST OF COCOS ISLAND
OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS WEAK,
ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. THIS
MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS FAILED TO INDICATE A DEVELOPED LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/HARRISON/EDBERG//

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