Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 02:58:27 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 14.9S4 77.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 77.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.1S7 77.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 15.7S3 77.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 16.1S8 77.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 16.5S2 78.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 77.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND A BANDING FEATURE
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A CYCLONE
ALOFT AND GOOD OUTFLOW. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION
(AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR) IS AN
OUTLIER. EGRR, THE OUTLIER, CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WESTWARD BIAS.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND BLENDS ALL DYNAMIC MODELS
TO ACCOUNT FOR COMPENSATING ERRORS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 040600Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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