Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 30 Dec 2002 16:03:19 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/302200Z/311800ZDEC2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951ZDEC2002//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 301800Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2
42.3E9, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST OF MOZAMBIQUE, TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 302100) FOR MORE DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S1
42.8E4 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 92.2E3 IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED
INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DECOUPLED EAST OF THE CONVECTION. UPPER AIR
AND UW CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE AREA IS UNDER MARGINAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARA 2.A.(1), UPGRADED 2.B.(1) TO WARNING, AND ADDED FAIR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/LAM/DUKES/SHERRY//

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