Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 11:41:27 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/311800Z JAN O2/011800Z FEB 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N8
86.OE4 IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF BENGAL HAS MOVED WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS
NOW NEAR 8.6N4 82.1E1, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST OF SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION
THAT IS ATTEMPTING TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK, THIS SYSTEM HAS A LIMITED
OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
LAND MASS OF SRI LANKA AND SOUTHERN INDIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW
UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8
91.5E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 89.9E6 APPROXIMATELY 420 NM WEST
OF THE COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. SATELLITE ANIMATION
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) NOTED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH. SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN A REGION OF WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: HOLWEG/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//

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