Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 14:50:55 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150051Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CXCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE DISTURBANCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S1 .7E0 IS NOW
RELOCATED TO A POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 51.6E2 EAST OF MADAGASCAR. RECENT
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS FURTHER NORTH AND ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS BENEATH A
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21
PGTW 150100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/MAYER/LAM/TON//

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