Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 11:30:52 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/221800Z/231800Z JAN 02//
REF/A//RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751Z JAN 02//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 220600Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.5S5 58.5E8 AND MOVING WEST AT 11 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
220900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S9
90.0E9 IS NOW NEAR 10.0S1 86.4E8 APPROXIMATELY 620 NM WEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONTINUED WEAK CYCLING CONVECTION. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS VERY WEAK. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITHIN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: HOLWEG/LEEJOICE/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN//

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