Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 2 Jun 2002 07:33:50 -0500

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 021230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/021230Z/021800Z JUN 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N7
73.0E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1N5 73.4E4 APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH
OF BOMBAY, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING AND BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-LEVELS. A 020839Z2 TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM) PASS INDICATES POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH, WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND UW
CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOW THE AREA IS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS WITH
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT
1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN THE MID-LEVELS AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/NUTONGLA//

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