Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 Nov 2002 11:23:34 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 141800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS NEAR 5.5S0 78.0E5, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
STRONG WESTERLY WIND BURST IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A 141220Z0
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES TROUGHING ALONG 5.0S5 WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS ON BOTH THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD SIDES OF THE TROUGH. A
141502Z3 SSM/I PASS FAILS TO SHOW ANY ORGANIZATION TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE WITH
BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. DUE TO THE RECENT
SSM/I PASS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HEATH/DUKES/COOK//

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