Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2002 14:47:02 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/051800Z/061800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751Z FEB 02/
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060752Z FEB 02/
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
NEAR 5.0N5 67.3E6, IN THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING IN THE REGION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES CONVECTION RESIDES UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 060600Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.4S2 79.9E5 AND WAS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTXS31 PGTW 060900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 060600Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.2S5 119.7E8 AND WAS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTXS32 PGTW 060900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.1S3
40.1E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8E0 40.8E2, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE IS AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS BENEATH A REGION OF DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
REGION IS CURRENTLY MODERATE TO STRONG AND THE CONVECTION THAT FORMS
IS RAPIDLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/EDBERG//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.