Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 15:12:24 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 13.5S9 85.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 85.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 13.5S9 83.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 13.5S9 82.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 13.5S9 80.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 13.6S0 79.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 84.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 12S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12S WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND AVIATION
(AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT DIFFER

IN SPEED. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL
THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS
11 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
010151Z FEB 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
010200. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5.//

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