Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Apr 2002 20:41:39 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 120300
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 10.2S3 117.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S3 117.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 10.5S6 114.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 10.9S0 111.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 11.4S6 109.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 11.9S1 106.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 10.3S4  116.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF JAVA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. RECENT TRMM AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
DEPICT A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OFF
OF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 22S SHOULD MOVE IN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A NWP BLEND USING NOGAPS, UK-MET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, THE
BOM TLAPS, AND GFDN. INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IS
FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND AND BENEATH A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND 130300Z7.//

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