Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 6 May 2002 16:12:47 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 062100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 10.9S0 60.1E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 60.1E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 11.1S3 59.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 11.1S3 57.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 11.2S4 55.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 11.3S5 53.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 59.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO
65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP
(NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AVN) WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR OUR
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0.//

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