Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 00:34:12 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 040600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 8/8/20012002
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE (FRANCESCA)
2.A POSITION AT 0600 UTC  04/02/2002 : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF
    POINT 14.9S/77.4E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
    SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 5.0/5.0  /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 75 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30: 220 KM   SE30: 280 KM
    SW30: 280 KM   NW30: 220 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 15.0S / 76.7E FI=5.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 15.2S / 75.8E FI=6.0

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 15.8S / 73.5E FI=6.0

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : FRANCESCA SHOULD MAINTAIN
    ITS GENERALLY WESTSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
    OF A HIGH AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS ARRIVING SOUTH OF THE
    SYSTEM.
    NOTICE THAT THE NWP MODELS ARE DIVERGENT.=

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