Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 02:22:03 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z5 --- NEAR 16.7S4 59.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 59.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 18.1S0 59.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 19.7S7 60.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 21.3S6 60.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 23.2S7 60.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 59.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 180515Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS

A 10 NM ELONGATED EYE SURROUNDED BY 55 NM OF DEEP CONVECTION. TC 15S

IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15S
REMAINS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AFTER 24
HOURS. THEREFORE TC 15S SHOULD BE AT ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC

AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION
(AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS ARE IN TWO CLUSTERS, WITH AVN AND EGRR
SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND NOGAPS AND
GFDN TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
DIFFERENTIATING FACTOR IN THE MODELS IS THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION
WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND 190900Z9.//

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