Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 02 Sep 2002 13:10:39 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 021800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0S4
77.0E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5S9 75.1E3, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION SHEARED BY UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES.
A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS REVEALS THAT THE
AREA REMAINS UNORGANIZED. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/KENDALL/RONSSE/AYALA/SCHAEFER/EDBERG/COOK//

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