Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 May 2002 03:03:02 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 100900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 16.5N2 53.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N2 53.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 18.2N1 52.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 19.9N9 52.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.9N6 53.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA
APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF OMAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING 40 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER. ANIMATED IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE MAJORITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR, WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MADE A TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
LAND. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS NEAR SALALAH,
OMAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. ALL FORECAST AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, AVIATION, UKMET AND GFDN
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 11 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z7.//

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