Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/121800z/131800znov2002//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2002 12:04:34 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/121800Z/131800ZNOV2002//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 121200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B WAS LOCATED NEAR
23.2N7 89.2E9, APPROXIMATELY 61 NM NORTHEAST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 121500) FOR FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 121200Z6 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ATANG) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S1 41.4E9, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF TANZANIA, AND HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 121500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 4.6S0 60.7E3,
APPROXIMATELY 720 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF BROAD TROUGHING WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA IS CYCLIC AND DISORGANIZED. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/CUTMAN/ANDERSON//

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