Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 242021zoct2002//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 16:48:42 -0500

WTIO21 PGTW 242030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 242021ZOCT2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232021ZOCT2002//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 232030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N7 82.7E7 TO 13.8N2 80.4E2
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 242000Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.4N8 82.2E2. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS:
YESTERDAY'S VISIBLE ANIMATION AND A 241618Z2 37 GHZ TRMM IMAGE
CONINTUE TO DEPICT TWO POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE
241800Z5 POSITION IS BASED ON THE CIRCULATION WITH THE MOST DEFINED
BANDING FEATURE. NOGAPS AND UKMET DISSIPATE THE VORTEX WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GFS (AVN) RUN INDICATES A WEAK REFLECTION MOVING
OVER THE ORISSA COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE LOW/MID STEERING
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE VERY WEAK AS A WEAKENING HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BAY REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THE TCFA HAS BEEN
REISSUED BASED ON FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THE PERSISENT
BANDING FEATURE OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252030Z2.//

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