Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 11:57:14 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081800Z/091800Z JAN 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.0S 77.1E5.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLING CONVECTION AND A 080029Z9
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LLCC IS IN A NARROW REGION
OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/LEEJOICE/JACOBS/SHERRY/KUMAGA

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