Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 6 Mar 2002 08:46:06 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z9 --- NEAR 11.6S8 62.2E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 62.2E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 11.8S0 60.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.0S3 58.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 12.3S6 56.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 12.7S0 54.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 61.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, THEREFORE TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (GFDN,
AVN, NOGAPS AND EGRR) AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 AND 071500Z3.//

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