Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 2 May 2002 08:21:30 -0500

WTXS21 PGTW 021000
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1S7 63.0E9 TO 11.6S8 60.0E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
020600Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.4S1
62.2E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8S5
65.01E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S1 62.2E0, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
ANIMATION INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVE
R
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. TH
E
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN TH
E
NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
031000Z4.//

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