Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2002 11:47:13 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/121800Z/131800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121951Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 111800Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
26.7S5 86.5E9 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 112100)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND DEEP SURFACE LOW PERSISTS
NEAR 13.1S5 135.0E9, OVER LAND SOUTHWEST OF GOVE, AUSTRALIA. THE
LOW HAS TRACKED EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES 25-30 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS
NORTH OF GOVE, AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE ARAFURA SEA
PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER WATER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/MAYER/WEAVER/TON//

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