Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 21 Sep 2002 04:12:00 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/210900Z/211800Z SEP 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1N9
87.2E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N8 87.8E3, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE INCREASED CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE BUT THE
SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASED DEEP
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY. NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/KENDALL/RONSSE/SCHAEFER/EDBERG/COOK//
BT

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