Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 5 May 2002 16:43:18 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 10.4S5 62.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 62.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 10.9S0 60.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 11.3S5 59.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 11.3S5 57.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 11.3S5 55.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.5S6 61.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE VORTEX HAS TUCKED FURTHER
BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. THAT, AND IMPROVED VENTILATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, HAS HELPED THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AVN,
AFWA MESOSCALE MM5) WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR OUR FORECAST. AN
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9.//

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