Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 May 2002 10:22:00 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 13.0N4 62.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N4 62.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 13.4N8 61.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 13.7N1 60.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 14.3N8 59.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 15.1N7 58.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 16.3N0 55.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.1N5 62.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED IN THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA
APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OMAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 MULTISPRECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED OUTFLOW IN THE NORTH WESTERN QUADRANT. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN
INDIA. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS
INCLUDING NOGAPS, AVIATION, UKMET SPECTRAL, AND GFDN MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0,
080300Z1, 080900Z7 AND 081500Z4.//

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