Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2002 04:56:44 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 210930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/210930Z/211800ZOCT2002//
RMKS/
ABIO10 PGTW 210930
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N2
84.7E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N3 83.2E3, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT QUIKSCAT AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUPPORT A POTENTIAL LLCC ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IN THE
FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. BASED ON INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/KENDALL/DANIEL/RONSEE/EDBERG/SCHAEFER//

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