Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 24s (errol) Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 May 2002 04:06:48 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 120900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z9 --- NEAR 6.3S9 95.0E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.3S9 95.0E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 6.7S3 94.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 7.2S9 93.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 7.7S4 92.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 8.2S0 91.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 6.4S0 94.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
REMAINED STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 120530Z1 MULTISPRECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS CYCLING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 24S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE NOGAPS, UK MET
GLOBAL, AVIATION, GFDN, AND THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TCLAPS MODELS.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS
IT TRACKS TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND
130900Z3.//

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