Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 4 May 2002 03:35:55 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 10.1S2 66.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 66.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 10.8S9 66.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 11.5S7 65.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 12.0S3 63.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 12.3S6 62.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 10.3S4 66.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATING 40 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS DECOUPLED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA IS FORECAST TO BUILD THROUGH THE
PERIOD CREATING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING MOTION FOR TC 23S.
AVAILABLE NWP AGREE WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS EVENINGS 200
MB ANAL REVEALED A NARROW RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 23S SHOULD
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS BENEATH THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//

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