Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 19:57:01 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- NEAR 19.0S0 59.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 59.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 20.2S4 59.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 21.6S9 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 23.1S6 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 24.7S3 59.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 59.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 15S HAS A 13 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH DECREASING DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW
AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.
THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ITS INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
ON FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED. GFDN INDICATES A STRONG SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC TROUGH. ALL
THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM, TRACKING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT
190000Z0 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9, 191500Z6, 192100Z3
AND 200300Z5.//

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