Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 2 Mar 2002 11:15:22 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/021800Z/031800Z MAR 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6 64.9E9 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 65.3E4, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING,
WEAK DEEP CONVECTION, AND A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. PREVIOUS
QUIKSCAT AND CURRENT, SPARSE SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE A LLCC EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIR OUTFLOW
OVER THIS AREA, ENHANCED TO THE SOUTH BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
20S2 80E8. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND A WEAK LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/MORRIS/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

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