Subject: Indian-N: 1. Immediate Delivery Req To Amconsul Calcutta And Amembassy Dhaka

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Nov 2002 15:15:07 -0600

WTIO21 PGTW 222100
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N4 86.4E8 TO 8.5N3 87.3E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
221800Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N2
87.0E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N7 87.6E1 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.3N2 87.0E5, APPROXIMATELY 455 EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AREA
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232100Z8.//

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