Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 6 May 2002 03:41:38 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 10.6S7 61.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S7 61.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 10.7S8 59.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 10.5S6 57.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 10.4S5 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 10.6S7 54.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 10.6S7 60.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 060530Z4 MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS,
AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING 65 TO 70 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTOR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED VENTILATION
NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALED A POSSIBLE BANDING EYE FEATURE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS TUCKED IN NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL
HIGH POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS,
UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MESOSCALE MM5) WAS USED AS A BASIS
FOR OUR FORECAST. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO
MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6.//

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