Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 02b Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 May 2002 22:00:58 -0500

WTIO32 PGTW 110300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- NEAR 12.0N3 95.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N3 95.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 13.1N5 95.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 14.3N8 95.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 15.6N2 95.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 16.8N5 96.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 18.6N5 96.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.3N6 95.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH OF
YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DIFFLUENT
EASTERLIES OVER THE REGION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, AVN, AND THE
MEDIUM BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z2 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1, 111500Z8, 112100Z5
AND 120300Z6.//

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