Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2002 07:20:08 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 170900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z4 --- NEAR 14.5S0 56.3E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 56.3E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 15.1S7 57.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 16.5S2 59.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 18.6S5 59.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 21.6S9 59.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 56.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 170515Z9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 15S HAS DEVELOPED A 09 NM EYE AND HAS A WELL
DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 15S IS TRACKING UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS AND HAS DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS

UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. AFTERWARDS, AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z4 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 AND 180900Z8.//

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