Subject: Indian-N: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Northio

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 May 2002 09:06:31 -0500

WTIO31 PGTW 101500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 17.5N3 53.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N3 53.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 19.6N6 52.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.0N9 53.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED IN SOUTHWESTERN OMAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS NEAR THE CENTER. ANIMATED IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT TC 01A MADE LANDFALL NEAR SALALAH, OMAN AT
APPROXIMATELY 100900Z0. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MAY BE DECOUPLED EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT REMAINS OVER LAND. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, AVIATION, UKMET AND GFDN MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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