Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2002 12:50:38 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 151800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 2/10/20=12002
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC  15/02/2002 : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF
    POINT 15.7S/51.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
    FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 2.0/2.0  /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 25 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30:        SE30: 150 KM
    SW30: 150 KM   NW30:
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 14.8S / 51.7E FI=2.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 14.5S / 52.8E FI=2.5

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 14.3S / 54.2E FI=2.5

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : AN IRREGULAR CDO (DIAMETER
    IS 1,25 DEGREE) HAS DEVELOPPED OVER THE CENTRE. THE WEAK
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVOURABLE FOR A GRADUAL
    INTENSIFICATION.=

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