Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 03 Nov 2002 12:14:24 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/031800Z/041800ZNOV2002//
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N0
60.2E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N9 57.2E4, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MOGADISHU, SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEAL A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED CYCLING
DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE WEST. A 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0S7
71.0E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9S5 68.8E2, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE AREA TRACKS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/LUTZ/RONSSE/EDBERG//

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