Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 03:05:24 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 15.0S6 52.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 52.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 14.4S9 54.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 14.2S7 55.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 14.6S1 56.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 15.4S0 57.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 53.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM OFF THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. TC 15S HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
NOW DEPICTS THE BANDING FEATURE NOW EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TC 15S SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES GOVERNED
BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 15S IS TRACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE

AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET

GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL
THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND 170900Z7.//

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