Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s (chris) Warning Nr 004

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2002 17:28:51 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 042100
   1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 18.2S1 120.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 120.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 19.3S3 120.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.6S8 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.7S0 119.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 23.2S7 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 20.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTHEAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE BROOME RADAR DEPICT A 17 NM
IRREGULAR EYE AND A DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT UNDER THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE PERIPHERAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 13S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S
(FRANCESCA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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