Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 24 Nov 2002 14:44:47 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 242100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z5 --- NEAR 15.4N0 88.3E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N0 88.3E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 16.3N0 88.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 17.0N8 88.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 17.7N5 88.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 18.3N2 89.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 19.3N3 91.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.6N2 88.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241730Z7
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET GLOBAL, AND AVN, ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. GFDN DEPICTS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER INDIA, RESULTING IN AN EASTWARD TRACK.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, MINUS GFDN, AND
THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 16
FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0, 250900Z6, 251500Z3 AND 252100Z0.//

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