Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 11:25:07 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/031800Z/041800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751Z FEB 01/
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030752Z FEB 01/
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N4
77.0E4 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 030600Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S0 79.6E2 AND WAS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A

(WTXS31 PGTW 030900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 030600Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S3 121.3E7 AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32

PGTW 030900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 18.0S9 37.5E5,
NEAR THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. RECENT
VISIBLE ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MAY HAVE DRIFTED OFF THE COAST INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A REGION OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND AIDING MASS DIVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/EDBERG//

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