Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 26 Dec 2002 18:19:30 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 270030
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N1
89.0E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N6 89.7E4, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST
OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST AND CYCLING. A RECENT TRMM PASS SHOWS LITTLE
ORGANIZATION NEAR THE SURFACE, BUT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
WELL-ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS IN
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 261200Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CRYSTAL) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S4 59.8E2, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70
KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 261500) FOR MORE
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 261800Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.9S7
89.1E8, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS,
TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE
REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 262100) FOR MORE DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S7
88.9E5 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(2) FOR DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADD PARA 2.A.(2) AND UPDATE PARA 2.B.
(1).
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/KENDALL/KUMAGA/STATEN//

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