Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 28 Mar 2002 14:47:57 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 282100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (IKALA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 20.2S4 80.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 80.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 22.0S4 81.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 80.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (IKALA), HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST, AND A 281631Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI)
PASS REVEALED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE LLCC. EARLIER ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT TC 20S HAS LINKED UP WITH THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HAS UNDERGONE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF PERSISTENCE, THE UKMET SPECTRAL, NGPS, GFDN AND THE MEDIUM BETA
ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 24
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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