Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 02b Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 May 2002 16:22:30 -0500

WTIO32 PGTW 102100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- NEAR 11.4N6 95.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N6 95.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 12.7N0 95.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 14.2N7 96.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 15.5N1 96.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 17.2N0 96.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 18.4N3 96.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.7N9 95.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH OF
YANGON, MYANMAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TC 02B HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES EAST BASED
ON 101326Z3 SSM/I 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE ANDAMAN SEA. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE NWP, INCLUDING NOGAPS, AVN, AND UKMET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5,
110900Z1, 111500Z8 AND 112100Z5.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.