Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 6 Mar 2002 20:42:21 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- NEAR 11.7S9 59.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S9 59.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.0S3 57.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 12.4S7 54.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 12.9S2 53.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 13.9S3 51.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 16.5S2 50.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0 58.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 062300Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED
WRAPPING DEEP CONVECTION ENCOMPASSING A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 18S WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS
GUIDED BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER THIS TIME
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENABLING A MORE POLEWARD
TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.//

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