Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2002 01:43:17 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 110730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/110730Z/111800ZDEC2002//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S1
49.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S5 48.7E9, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED.  UW-CIMSS UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/RONSSE/SCHAEFER/SPANSKI/ANDERSON//

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