Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 08 Dec 2002 22:46:41 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 090500
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4
57.8E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6 56.8E9, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS WEAK AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LLCC REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA TO PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/STATEN/KUMAGA//

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