Subject: Indian-N: Ocean Reissued/142300z/151800znov2002//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 Nov 2002 17:31:50 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 142300
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/142300Z/151800ZNOV2002//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5S0
78.0E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6S2 77.6E0, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PRESENT AND THE CONVECTION HAS
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.  A 141809Z TRMM PASS SUGGESTED
LOW LEVEL TURNING.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT
DIVERGENCE WITH BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. DUE
TO THE INCREASING CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION, THE
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRAED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED SUSPECT AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HEATH/DUKES/COOK//

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