Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 13s (chris) Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 02:55:50 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 050900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 18.7S6 120.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 120.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.4S4 119.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.2S4 119.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.2S5 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.2S6 118.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 120.0E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (CHRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE BROOME RADAR DEPICT A 22 NM IRREGULAR EYE FEATURE. A RECENT
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC
13S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE PERIPHERAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC
13S SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN LATER AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR),
NOGAPS, GFDN, TCLAPS, AND TLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC
MODELS TO ACCOUNT FOR COMPENSATING ERRORS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND
060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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