Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 12:18:16 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 211800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 14/10/20012002
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (GUILLAUME)
2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC  21/02/2002 : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF
    POINT 26.4S/62.9E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
    SIXTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 3.5/4.0  /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 55 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30: 130 KM   SE30: 220 KM
    SW30: 220 KM   NW30: 130 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 27.7S / 64.8E FI=3.0

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 28.7S / 66.9E FI=2.5

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 30.5S / 71.0E FI=
    EXTRATROPICAL
4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : ON THE 0840 UTC TRMM SWATH,
    CENTRE WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
    CONVECTION, DESPITE OF THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
    ON THE IR IMAGERY, CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. GUILLAUME
    KEEPS ON HOWEVER REGULARLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD.=

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