Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 7 Mar 2002 09:44:41 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 11.3S5 57.4E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 57.4E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 11.2S4 55.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 11.8S0 53.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 13.2S6 52.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 15.0S6 51.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 18.2S1 51.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.3S5 56.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTED A DEVELOPING EYE AND THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW
IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND
CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THIS WEAKNESS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF ECMWF, GFDN, AVN,
NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NEAR THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.//

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