Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 12:05:11 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/281800Z/291800Z SEP 02//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY. NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 4.0S4 62.6E4,
APPROXIMATELY 615 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AREA
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/MORRIS/KUMAGA/STATEN//

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