Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 11 Nov 2002 01:36:01 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 110730
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N2 82.E0 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 12.4N7 82.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101217Z2 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THE
LLCC HAS UP TO 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND HAS GOOD UPPER
LEVEL POLEWARD DIVERGENCE WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE
IMPROVED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 101800Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ATANG) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S3 48.9E1, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
MADAGASCAR, TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 102100) FOR FURTHER THE
FINAL WARNING.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC
02S IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 45.6E5, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTHWEST OF
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION
AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 2.A.(1) AND ADDED FAIR
AREA TO PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//

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