Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 24s (errol) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 May 2002 15:42:19 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 122100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (ERROL) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 7.4S1 94.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S1 94.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 8.1S9 93.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 8.7S5 93.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 9.4S3 92.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 9.8S7 91.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 7.6S3 94.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
WAS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
INCLUDING NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AVIATION, GFDN, AND THE BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 132100Z7.//

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