Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 21 Feb 2002 11:41:43 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/211800Z/221800Z FEB 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751Z FEB 02/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 210600Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.1S7 60.5E1, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF
PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW
210900) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8S6
41.6E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0 42.1E7 IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS
NEAR 13.6S0 103.4E8 APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PRESENT. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/BRYANT/WINGEART/MAYER/LAM/TON/WEAVER//

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