Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 5 Feb 2002 00:17:15 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 050600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 10/8/20012002
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (FRANCESCA)
2.A POSITION AT 0600 UTC  05/02/2002 : 16.1S/78.7E (SIXTEEN
    DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN
    DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 5.5/6.0 MOINS /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 100 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30: 350 KM   SE30: 450 KM
    SW30: 350 KM   NW30: 280 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 16.5S / 79.5E FI=5.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 17.1S / 80.9E FI=5.5

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 19.0S / 82.0E FI=5.0

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : T=5.5+ CI=6.0+ FRANCESCA IS
    GOING TO ENTER INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK SHOULD
    MAINTAIN SOUTHEASTWARD, AT LOW SPEED.=

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