Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 13:20:32 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/241800Z/251800ZOCT2002//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232021ZOCT2002//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N9
82.5E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N4 81.5E4, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AND A 241253Z7 QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL THE LLCC; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. SEE REF A
(WTIO21 PGTW 232030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA/JUAREZ//

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