Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Cancellation 251921z Oct 02//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 14:31:10 -0500

WTIO21 PGTW 251930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 251921Z OCT 02//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242021Z OCT 02//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO PGTW 242030)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS:
THIS CANCELS REF A.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N3 80.9E7 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 14.7N2 80.7E5, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA, JUST
WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 251620Z6 SSM/I
PASS DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF A WEAK LLCC.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. DUE TO THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION AND EXPECTED MOVEMENT INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//

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