Subject: Indian-N: Ampn/ref Is Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (wtio21 Pgtw 091021)//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 May 2002 05:35:33 -0500

WTIO21 PGTW 101030
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091030Z MAY 02//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 091021)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6N5 95.2E6 TO 16.8N5 93.4E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 02 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
100900Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N5
95.0E4. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS
REVEALED A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CONTINUED
ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE VORTEX. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. UW
CIMSS CHARTS REVEAL WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111030Z6.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.centerone.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.