Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 19 Sep 2002 03:55:51 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 190900
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.4N0 92.0E1,
APPROXIMATELY 255 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR, IN THE BAY
OF BENGAL. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MYANMAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY. NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA TO PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//

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