Subject: Indian-S: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2002 22:50:09 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 221700
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.4S1 142.7W4 TO 29.6S7
147.1W3 WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 221430Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 25.8S5 143.1W9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 25.4S1 142.9W6 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 25.8N5 143.1W9, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
DAHUREI ISLAND, IN THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGE (SSMI) PASS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. 200 MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AREA IS UNDERNEATH FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231700Z3.//

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