Subject: Indian-N: 1. Tropical Cyclone 04b Warning Nr 008 Relocated

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Nov 2002 03:01:39 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 250900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMCONSUL CALCUTTA AND AMEMBASSY DHAKA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z3 --- NEAR 15.0N6 88.0E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N6 88.0E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 15.4N0 87.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 15.7N3 87.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 15.9N5 86.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 15.7N3 86.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.1N7 87.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, IS RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS POSITION AT 250000Z7, AND IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
450 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
250530Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER INDIA CAUSING A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK OF THE REMAINING
LLCC. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
GLOBAL, JAPANESE GLOBAL MODEL, AND GFS, ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. GFDN
IS THE LEADING AID DEPICTING A STRONGER RIDGE OVER INDIA RESULTING
IN A WESTWARD TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON GFDN, NGPS AND THE
BETA ADVECTION MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z3 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3, 252100Z0, 260300Z1 AND
260900Z7.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.