Subject: Indian-S: Subj: Tropical Cyclone Warning

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Apr 2002 22:52:44 -0500

WTXS32 PGTW 110300
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (BONNIE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 10.0S1 122.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 122.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 10.1S2 119.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 10.3S4 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 10.4S5 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 10.5S6 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 121.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (BONNIE), LOCATED OVER SAVU SEA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND A 35 KNOT SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORT (ZCAO7).
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 22S HAS CLEARED THE
ISLAND OF TIMOR AND IS CURRENTLY REDEVELOPING OVER THE SAVU SEA. A
102214Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS SHOWED DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
SIDES. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH SUMBA ISLAND. AFTER TC 22S MOVES WEST OF SUMBA
ISLAND AND BACK OVER THE OPEN WATER IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSITY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF FIVE NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS THAT INCLUDE NOGAPS, UK-MET OFFICE, NCEP AVIATION,
AFWA MM5 AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S (DIANNE-JERY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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