Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 03:02:03 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 14.5S0 79.6E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 79.6E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 14.8S3 78.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 15.0S6 78.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.6S2 78.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 15.9S5 78.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 79.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTARD AT 06 KNOTS

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE FORMING AN EYE. TC 12S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND MOVE POLEWARD AS A
PERIPHERAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS EGRR, WHICH
TRACKS THE SYSTEM FURTHER WESTWARD BEFORE SHOWING A TURN POLEWARD.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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