Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2002 12:34:34 -0500

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N3
83.2E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N0 82.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 211539Z1 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS
A WEAK RAIN BAND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LLCC AND A SECOND RAIN
BAND SOUTH OF THE LLCC IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AREA EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN A
DIFFLUENT REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//

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