Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 May 2002 16:04:14 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KESINY) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 11.5S7 57.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 57.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 11.9S1 56.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 12.4S7 54.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 12.6S9 52.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 12.9S2 51.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 57.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KESINY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION IN
ALL QUADRANTS AND POOR OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, AND AVIATION MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.

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