Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2002 14:39:33 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 14.3S8 54.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 54.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 14.3S8 55.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 15.0S6 56.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 15.9S5 57.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 16.7S4 58.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 54.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTING EYEWALL DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BANDING EYE AND A PRIMARY BAND
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE DEVELOPS. TC 15S IS TRACKING
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ON BOTH SIDES. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEFORE RESUMING CLIMATOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT BY THE 24 HOUR POINT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND ARE SUPPORTED BY THE BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODELS. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND
172100Z1.//

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