Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2002 14:31:18 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 202030
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2
75.7E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2 76.1E4, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-
DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 201501Z9 SSM/I PASS SUGGESTS A
NARROW BAND OF TROUGHING IN THE REGION AND TWO POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS. THE 200MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO PGTW 201951) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 1.B.(1) TO GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/STATEN/KUMAGA//

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