Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 041951z Feb 03//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 14:23:24 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 042000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 041951Z FEB 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5S6 98.5E2 TO 12.0S3 93.9E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041730Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 98.0E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2 98.4E1 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 98.0E7, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTHEAST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND OVERNIGHT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATE THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052000Z7.//

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