Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Mar 2003 15:07:40 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 13.5S9 72.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 72.1E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 14.0S5 71.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 14.6S1 70.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 15.5S1 68.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 17.4S2 66.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 71.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 125
KNOTS. A 071627Z3 SSM/I PASS REVEALS A 30 NM EYE. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS ABOVE THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 23S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND THE UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z7 AND 082100Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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