Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 132321zapr2003//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Apr 2003 18:39:28 -0500

WTPS21 PGTW 132330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 132321ZAPR2003//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S3 179.4W1 TO 18.4S3
174.5W7 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 132030Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 178.4W0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8
178.5W1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 178.4W0, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE, WHILE CONTINUING TO TURN CYCLONICALLY INWARD TOWARD THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL
OVER THE AREA. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IS
APPARENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA, HELPING TO ACCENTUATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004
MB. BASED ON CONTINUED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142330Z3.
4. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.