Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 14 Jan 2003 01:32:15 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 140600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN CORRECTED/140600Z/150600ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140151ZJAN2003//
AMPN/REF A IS AN AMENDED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.2N5
113.0E5 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2
176.9E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N6 170.0E8, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MAJURO. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER A REGION OF TROUGHING. A RECENT SSM/I PASS WAS
INCONCLUSIVE IN DETERMINING WHETHER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS PRESENT.  OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA AT EBON AND JALUIT
ATOLLS SUGGEST A WEAK LLCC IS PRESENT, HOWEVER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE AREA HAS EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 140000Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.2S2 178.9W5, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FIJI
ISLANDS, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 140300 AMD) FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE BROAD CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9
136.4E4 IS NOW LOCATED INLAND NEAR 14.0S5 133.5E2 BASED ON SYNOPTIC
REPORTS. THEREFORE THE AREA IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED LONGITUDE IN PARA 2.A.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HEATH/EDBERG//

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