Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s (harriet) Warning Nr 012

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Mar 2003 02:26:00 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 060900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 012
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 19.0S0 114.8E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 114.8E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 19.9S9 113.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 20.7S9 112.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 21.6S9 111.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 22.6S0 110.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 25.0S7 107.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 114.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
060530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z2, 062100Z9, 070300Z0 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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