Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 04 Mar 2003 23:24:16 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 050300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z5 --- NEAR 20.2S4 154.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 154.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 19.2S2 153.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 18.1S0 152.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 17.4S2 150.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 16.6S3 149.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 153.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM, EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
042330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS EXPERIENCED A DECREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 AND 060300Z9. JUSTICATION FOR CORRECTION:
GRAMMATICAL ERROR IN REMARKS. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.