Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 14 Mar 2003 20:28:54 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 020
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z6 --- NEAR 26.0S8 65.5E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S8 65.5E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 27.7S6 66.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 30.2S5 66.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 26.4S2 65.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23S IS EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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