Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 15:07:50 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 003
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- NEAR 17.7S5 66.1E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 66.1E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 18.3S2 67.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 18.9S8 69.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 19.7S7 71.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 21.0S3 73.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 66.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED
BY A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 111726Z8 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS
A 13 NM EYE AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH 48 HOURS GUIDED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS
WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.