Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2003 14:52:55 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- NEAR 15.2S8 159.6E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 159.6E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 16.7S4 160.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 17.8S6 161.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 18.5S4 162.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 19.0S0 163.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 159.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
WEST OF VANUATU, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED
OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS
IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THEN WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT
WINGEART, USN.//

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