Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 01 Jan 2003 04:34:43 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 011030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/011030Z/011800ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZJAN2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 010600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DELFINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S4 39.1E3, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM INLAND IN MOZAMBIQUE,
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 010900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.9S8 91.5E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 91.0E5 OVER THE SOUTH
INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BENEATH MODERATE UPPER
EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1004 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADE PARA 2.B.(1) TO POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/HEATH/CUTMAN//

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