Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 09 Mar 2003 23:19:22 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN/100600Z/110600ZMAR2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100021ZMAR2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 22P PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0
157.6E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 157.6E9, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR BUT
MAY BE REGENERATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3S9
172.7E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S9 172.4E4, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF
A (WTPS21 PGTW 100030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS GOOD.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/RONSSE/MENEBROKER//

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