Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2002 11:05:50 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 310900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 002A
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310600Z0 --- NEAR 16.2S9 41.3E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 41.3E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 16.2S9 40.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 16.0S7 39.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 16.0S7 38.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 41.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 310530Z2 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND SEVERAL
RAINBANDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z0 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7 AND
010900Z0. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER.//

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