Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Apr 2003 09:08:52 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z8 --- NEAR 14.6S1 113.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 113.0E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 14.9S4 112.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 15.5S1 112.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 16.3S0 112.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 19.0S0 114.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 23.6S1 118.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 112.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. THE
EYE FEATURE IS CLOUD-FILLED AT THIS TIME. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY RECURVE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY
A PASSING MID-LAT TROUGH. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAIN DRYER AIR AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AT AN INCREASING RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MODEL GUIDANCE AND
FORECAST REASONING. OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR EGRR, AVN, AND
TCLAPS MODEL SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE TC 26S WILL
ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
OF LATITUDE 20S. THE  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9, 060900Z5 AND 061500Z2.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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