Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 27 Jan 2003 15:02:22 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 272051ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.3S2 53.5E3 TO 20.2S4 50.4E9
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4 53.1E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S5 58.5E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4 53.3E1, APPROXIMATELY
225 NM EAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE IN INTENSITY, AND
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CYCLING CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS IN
A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS, AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA IS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF 11S WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281751Z4.//

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