Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 04 Jan 2003 13:16:22 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 041730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN REISSUED/041730Z/050600ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S6
136.4E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2 135.9E8, OVER THE ARAFURA SEA
JUST NORTH OF CAPE WESSEL. INFRARED ANIMATION AND THE BOM GOVE RADAR
LOOP DEPICT A BROAD, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. THIS
MORNING'S 041200Z7 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1002 MB. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND A DECREASING SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE TREND, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) SUSPECT AREA TO
FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/KENDALL/SHERRY//

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