Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 07 Apr 2003 09:04:30 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 18.3S2 114.8E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 114.8E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 20.0S2 116.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 22.0S4 119.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 115.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED
EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 26S SHOULD CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING UNDER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 18 TO 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS OVER
LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR
FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0, 080300Z1 AND
080900Z7.//

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