Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Feb 2003 01:48:24 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRAHAM) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z6 --- NEAR 18.3S2 120.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 120.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 18.9S8 121.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 19.6S6 121.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 20.4S6 121.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 121.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GRAHAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD BECOMING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL (TLAPS) AND REGIONAL (TCLAPS) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TLAPS AND TCLAPS. THESE TWO MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM MORE SOUTHEASTWARD THAN OTHER AIDS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON TCLAPS AND TLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 AND 010900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S
(JAPHET) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//

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