Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Mar 2003 08:32:25 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 311400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 311351ZMAR2003//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S7 122.8E3 TO 11.2S4 118.6E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311130Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 122.5E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3S1 126.8E7 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 122.5E0, NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF EAST TIMOR IN
THE SAVU SEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ANALYSIS ALOFT INDICATES WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011400Z6.
4. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//

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