Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 25 Feb 2003 11:58:34 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/251800Z/261800ZFEB2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S3
118.5E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S3 118.7E7, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SPORADIC WEAK CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY. A 250947Z7 QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE ALONG 16.0S7. 200 MB
ANALYSIS PLACES THE AREA EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.6S9
42.4E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3S6 42.1E7, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS CONTINUED CYCLING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. A 250343Z7
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF TROUGHING ALONG 22.0S4.
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HEATH/EDBERG//

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