Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 04 Mar 2003 20:40:50 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z5 --- NEAR 15.4S0 114.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 114.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 16.1S8 115.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 17.2S0 115.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 18.5S4 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 19.6S6 113.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 21.1S4 111.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 114.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 21S HAS DECREASED IN
AREAL SIZE, AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM
THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE
INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY
POLEWARD AND ULTIMATELY REVERSING COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER MAKING THE TURN POLEWARD,
TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN,
GFDN, AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z4, 051500Z1, 052100Z8 AND 060300Z9.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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