Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2003 08:04:34 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z7 --- NEAR 21.7S0 64.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 64.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 22.7S1 64.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 24.0S6 64.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 25.6S3 64.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 27.4S3 64.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 64.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BELOW THE
AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
23S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A POLEWARD TRACK
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND
141500Z1. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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