Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 242051zjan03//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 24 Jan 2003 16:15:31 -0600

WTPS21 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 242051ZJAN03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 12.6S9 162.0E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 241730Z7 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 162.0E9. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY
240 NM SOUTH OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM)
AND QUIKSCAT PASSES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS
CONSOLIDATING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252100Z0.//

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