Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2003 18:42:50 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 013
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- NEAR 21.2S5 164.4E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 164.4E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 22.4S8 166.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 24.7S3 170.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 27.4S3 174.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 29.7S8 177.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 165.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 105 KNOTS. TC 22P IS NOW IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO NEW CALEDONIA, AND HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE INTERACTING
WITH LAND OVER THE PAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MID-PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND
NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE ALL IN REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

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