Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Mar 2003 21:06:45 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 019
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- NEAR 19.7S7 113.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 113.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 20.5S7 111.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 22.1S5 110.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 112.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS, AND THEN ENCOUNTER COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COLDER
SST WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND
TCLAPS ARE IN GO0D AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL FURTHER
WEST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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