Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 02 Mar 2003 02:35:01 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 020900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 14.1S6 106.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 106.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 14.7S2 108.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 15.2S8 109.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 15.8S4 111.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 16.3S0 113.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 107.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS AND A 020006Z8 TRMM PASS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF UKMET
(EGRR) AND NOGAPS. UKMET TRACKED THE SYSTEM FASTER WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF EGRR, NOGAPS,
AND THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z8 IS 15 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 012051Z9 MAR 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

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