Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 14 Jan 2003 05:57:49 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 141100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/141100Z/141800ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS NEAR 23.3S8 50.8E3, APPROXIMATELY
280 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ON THE EAST AND
SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA HAS
GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. DUE TO THE LLCC AND THE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HEATH/EDBERG//

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