Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 15 Mar 2003 07:46:04 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 021
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z9 --- NEAR 28.7S7 66.2E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S7 66.2E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 31.0S4 66.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 29.3S4 66.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVE
DUE TO THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE IMAGERY
ALSO SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS DISSIPATING WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND BE
EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. RELEASED
BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//

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