Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 01 Mar 2003 08:12:09 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 011500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z4 --- NEAR 23.7S2 37.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S2 37.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 23.6S1 37.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 23.0S5 37.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 22.3S7 36.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 21.6S9 35.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 23.7S2 37.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AFRICAN CONTINENT, AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR BUILDS AS WELL. TC 19S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE SHORT TERM, THEN BEGIN
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. TC 19S SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WHILE NEARLY STATIONARY,
THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES CONFINED EQUATORWARD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET SPECTRAL MODEL (EGRR) TAKING TC 19S ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z4 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 AND 021500Z8.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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