Subject: Pacific-SW: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southpac

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 05 Feb 2003 17:29:14 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 052100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 13.0S4 162.9W8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 162.9W8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 13.9S3 162.5W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 15.0S6 162.4W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 15.8S4 163.1W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 16.2S9 164.2W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 162.8W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER, WHILE INTENSIFYING
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP, CONSISTING OF NGPS,
THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 050651ZFEB2003 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS23 PGTW 050700). NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z5 AND 062100Z9.//

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