Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 02 Mar 2003 08:36:57 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 021500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 010
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z5 --- NEAR 22.2S6 35.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 35.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 21.6S9 34.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 21.3S6 33.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 20.9S1 32.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 20.5S7 31.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 35.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24
HOURS. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH
LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
(EGRR) AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 AND 031500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT
WINGEART, USN.//

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