Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 03 Apr 2003 21:02:01 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z4 --- NEAR 12.5S8 115.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 115.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 13.3S7 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 14.1S6 113.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 14.6S1 113.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 15.3S9 113.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 17.3S1 113.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 115.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
032330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC
26S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS AND
THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.
TC 26S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
AFTERWARDS, TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VERTICAL SHEAR
INCREASES AFTER RECURVATURE. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION MODEL, GFDN, AND THE
AUSTRALIAN TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 AND 050300Z8. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE,
USAF.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.