Subject: Pacific-SW: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Jan 2003 07:28:38 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 311500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311200Z7 --- NEAR 23.8S3 165.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 165.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 24.1S7 163.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.9S4 165.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 311130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE REMAINING ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 20
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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