Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 09 Jan 2003 11:52:29 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/091800Z/101800ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZJAN2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
     (1) AT 091200Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.8S4 71.4E2, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 091500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DELFINA), PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 24.1S7 37.7E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.0S0 40.5E9,
APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FULLY EXPOSED AND DISSIPATING.
THEREFORE, THE AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER LAND NEAR
13.8S2 133.8E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 134.5E3, APPROXIMATELY 200
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GOVE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS
OVER LAND, WITH DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE COAST IN THE GULF
OF CARPENTARIA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS
UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/HEATH/SHERRY/DUKES//

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