Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 25 Jan 2003 13:25:57 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/251800Z/261800ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.8S8
116.6E4 HAS TRACKED OVER LAND NEAR PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY INLAND AND DISSIPATE.
THEREFORE, THE SUSPECT AREA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
     (2) THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S HAS PERSISTED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4 63.5E4,
APPROXIMATELY 765 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS REGAINED SOME OF ITS
INTENSITY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE DISTURBANCE IS AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH TWO LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTERS SEPARATED BY 3 DEGREES. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES A COL
AREA IN THE UPPER LEVELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/RONSSE/ANDERSON/MENEBROKER//

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