Subject: Pacific-SW: Amembassy Suva Req Pass To Usaid Ofda Advisor

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 13 Jan 2003 14:41:41 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 132100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- NEAR 16.7S4 179.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 179.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 19.5S5 178.6W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 22.9S3 175.3W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 26.7S5 169.4W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 39 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 30.8S1 161.8W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 179.7W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BEING ENHANCED BY A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-
LATITUDE LOW NEAR NEW ZEALAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8.//

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