Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 02 Apr 2003 08:13:17 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z5 --- NEAR 11.3S5 118.5E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 118.5E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 11.7S9 117.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 12.3S6 116.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 13.0S4 114.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 13.7S1 113.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 118.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUMBA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 AND 55
KNOTS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER
36 HOURS, TC 26S IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY AND TRACK MORE
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC
26S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, GFDN, NOGAPS, AND THE
AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 AND 031500Z9. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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