Subject: Indian-S: Ocean/091800z/101800zfeb2003//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 11:27:21 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 091800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/091800Z/101800ZFEB2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351ZFEB2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090752ZFEB2003//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 091200Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA) LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S1 97.9E5, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 100 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 091500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 090600Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4
55.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER NORTH BASED UPON
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUPPORTING CONSOLIDATION IN THIS VICINITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW
090900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S5
85.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 85.3E6, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) PASS
REVEALS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SOUTHEAST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REGION IS UNDER
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
76.4E7 HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
66.5E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 65.3E4, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND RECENT
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A SMALL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/VAN LOAN//

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