Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Mar 2003 20:56:55 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- NEAR 20.4S6 64.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 64.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 21.3S6 64.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 22.4S8 64.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 23.9S4 64.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 25.6S3 64.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 64.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST, BELOW THE AXIS
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 23S WILL
WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE POLEWARD MOVEMENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO BE SLOW DUE TO A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT
36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
AFWA MM5, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND
140300Z8.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

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