Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Mar 2003 18:52:05 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 090100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN REISSUED/090100Z/090600ZMAR2003//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 22P PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5
154.1E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 154.8E8, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER
THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
NEAR 14.0S5 172.0E0, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA, PARA 2.B.(2).
4. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/INGRAM/JACOBS/COOK/NUTONGLA//

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