Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 21 Jan 2003 04:14:27 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/211000Z/211800ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
80.0E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 81.0E9, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ASSOCIATED SPARSE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 13.6S0 124.5E2,
APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING OVER A WEAK AND
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION IS
CYCLIC AND DISORGANIZED OVER THE AREA. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN 2.B.(2) AND UPDATED
ALL OTHER INFORMATION.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/NUTONGLA//

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