Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Feb 2003 21:15:41 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 270230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 270221Z FEB 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4S2 118.9E9 TO 20.5S7
120.8E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 262330Z6 INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7S5 119.2E3. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
 (1) THE SURFACE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3S1
118.8E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S5 119.2E3, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). QUIKSCAT REVEALS ENHANCED
WESTERLY WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA WHILE
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280230Z5.
4.RELEASED BY CAPT. KENDALL, USAF.//

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