Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 05 Jan 2003 11:26:19 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/051800Z/061800ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DELFINA) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED OVER MOZAMBIQUE NEAR 14.7S2 38.7E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
15.1S7 39.4E6 DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST. VISIBLE
ANIMATION DEPICTS A SMALL, SYMMETRIC, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN MOST EXTENT OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH.
PAST MOTION HAS BEEN A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, ALTHOUGH,
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION ONCE THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE CHANNEL. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM REMAINS BENEATH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/KENDALL/SHERRY//

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