Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Mar 2003 08:23:11 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 011
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z4 --- NEAR 17.5S3 66.4E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 66.4E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.1S0 65.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 18.5S4 65.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 19.2S2 65.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 20.1S3 65.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 66.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
AND QUIKSCAT PASSES REVEAL A DECREASING INTENSITY TREND, AND THAT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 23S.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK AROUND THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. TC 23S WILL WEAKEN
SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND THEN WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
AND AFWA MM5, NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
THE AVAILABLE MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND
111500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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