Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 04 Mar 2003 02:44:57 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 15.0S6 112.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 112.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.4S0 113.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 16.0S7 113.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 18.2S1 113.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 19.8S8 112.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 112.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 21S IS BEING HAMPERED IN
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED BY THE NUMEROUS
ISLANDS THAT COMPRISE INDONESIA TO THE NORTH. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH, THEN MORE POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF SYSTEM. TC 21S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL AS THE
OUTLIER HOLDING TC 21S TO AN EASTERLY TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z7 AND 050900Z4. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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