Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 22 Mar 2003 12:04:50 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/221800Z/231800ZMAR2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S3
79.4E0, HAS DISSIPATED IN A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 7.8S5 44.4E2,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA. MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY INDICATES A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/RONSSE/MENEBROKER//

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