Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 15:38:42 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 016
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 18.5S4 91.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 91.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 19.8S8 90.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 21.7S0 90.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 23.8S3 92.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 25.5S2 94.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 91.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
111130Z7 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
MOVES EASTWARD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), AND AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE AFWA MM5
TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AS A RESULT OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION
WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS THE MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND
121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 16S (GERRY)
(WTXS33 PGTW), TC 17S (HAPE)(WTXS32), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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