Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 21 Jan 2003 11:40:49 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/211800Z/221800ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1
81.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 81.7E6, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) PASS REVEAL A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ASSOCIATED WEAK DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM,
WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO MODERATE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SECTOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6S0
124.5E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 122.9E4, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE, ENHANCED
INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF MID-
LEVEL TURNING OVER A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC AND DISORGANIZED OVER THE
AREA. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 22.8S2 39.9E1, IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD
THE NORTH, WITH NEWLY-DEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC FOR
THE PAST 3 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE IFFLUENCE
ALOFT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/INGRAM/RONSSE/ANDERSON/MENEBROKER//

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