Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Apr 2003 19:40:55 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z5 --- NEAR 14.3S8 113.6E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 113.6E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 15.0S6 113.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 15.7S3 112.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 16.5S2 113.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 17.9S7 113.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 21.7S0 117.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 113.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 140 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS AN 18NM SYMMETRICAL EYE. TC 26S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE EARLY
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARDS, TC 26S WILL BEGIN RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 26S
WILL WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY PERIOD AS IT TRACKS THROUGH A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUING.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES THE RIDGE AXIS, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TC
26S. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO WITH THE POINT OF RECURVATURE CONTINUING TO DIFFER IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS. NGPS AFWA MM5 RECURVE SLIGHTLY EARLIER, MAKING FOR
LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR) AND THE AUSTRALIAN TYPHOON MODEL (TCLAPS) RECURVE
LATER, MAKING FOR LANDFALL JUST EAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NGPS AND AFWA MM5. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z4, 051500Z1, 052100Z8 AND 060300Z9.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//

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