Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2003 22:03:42 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- NEAR 13.4S8 103.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 103.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 14.3S8 101.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.3S9 100.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.3S0 98.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 17.1S9 95.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 103.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
072330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. A 072320Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
DEPICTS AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN PARTIAL CONCENTRIC BANDS. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF
DRIER AIR. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//

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