Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 01 Jan 2003 11:16:09 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/011800Z/021800ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZJAN2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 010600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DELFINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S4 39.1E3, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM INLAND IN MOZAMBIQUE,
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 010900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S1 91.0E0 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE
THE LLCC IS EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKENED
OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BENEATH
MODERATE UPPER EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) A NEW LLCC HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 07.0S7 66.0E2. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF POORLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LLCC DEPICTED
ON THE 011324Z1 QUICKSCATT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS LLCC IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: JEFFRIES/RONSSE/SCHAEFER/SPANSKI//

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