Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Mar 2003 20:31:13 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 006
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- NEAR 21.9S2 177.8W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 177.8W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 22.4S8 173.4W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 23.8S3 168.5W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 27.1S0 162.8W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 39 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 33.0S6 156.8W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 176.7W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NUKU ALOFA, TONGA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED, VISIBLE, AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 105 KNOTS. TC 25P HAS ENTERED AN AREA
OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION, AND
ALLOWING FOR THE RELATIVELY BRIEF RESURGENCE SEEN OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, WHEREBY TC 25P HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 25P IS NOW FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND
140300Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(CRAIG) WARNING (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

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