Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2003 08:55:50 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 19.4S4 173.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 173.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 20.7S9 174.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 21.3S6 176.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 21.8S1 179.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 22.1S5 177.2W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 173.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
111130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 55 KNOTS. A
111019Z3 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL. TC 25P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS AND THEN EASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 25P IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE THE 48 HOUR
POINT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P
(ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//

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