Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Feb 2003 21:16:01 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z1 --- NEAR 23.9S4 37.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S4 37.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 24.1S7 37.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 24.3S9 37.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 24.6S2 37.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 24.5S1 37.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 24.0S6 37.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER SOUTH AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF TC 19S. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME POLEWARD MOVEMENT
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.  AFTERWARDS, TC 19S SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY
WESTWARD GUIDED BY THE RIDGE. TC 19S SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
COOLER AIR IMPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL
(EGRR), AFWA MM5 AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) HAVE HAD POOR FORECAST
PERSISTENCE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN TWO
CLUSTERS. FIRST, GFDN AND EGRR FORECAST THE BUILDING RIDGE TO
STRENGTHEN AND AS A RESULT, TRACK TC 19 WESTWARD ON SHORE WITHIN 48
HOURS. AVN AND NOGAPS HOWEVER, LOOP AND TRACK THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS FUTURE
STEERING IS GUIDED BY THE DEEP, OVERALL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE FULL BETA ADVECTION MODEL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS ARE AT 011500Z7 AND 020300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(GRAHAM) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF//

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