Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 19s Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Feb 2003 08:15:30 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- NEAR 21.5S8 39.6E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 39.6E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 21.1S4 38.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 21.2S5 37.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 21.6S9 36.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 22.2S6 35.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 39.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST OF
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED  NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 19S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN START TO TURN
POLEWARD BEHIND THE PASSING RIDGE. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WHILE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 AND
271500Z5. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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