Subject: Indian-S: Ocean/071800z/081800zjan2003//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 07 Jan 2003 11:56:23 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 071800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/071800Z/081800ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070321ZJAN2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070551ZJAN2003//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND REF B IS A/
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH/
PACIFIC OCEAN//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DELFINA), PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 17.3S1 38.2E3, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8S0 37.8E8,
APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED, AND IS MOVING UNDER THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS NOW IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
71.0E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2 70.4E1. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLIC DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED, AND IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTOR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA
HAS DECREASED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 070330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER LAND NEAR
13.2S6 132.0E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 133.4E1, APPROXIMATELY 155
NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS
OVER LAND, PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS
UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 997 MB. SEE REF A (ABPW10 PGTW 070600) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/INGRAM/JACOBS/VAN LOAN/MENEBROKER/COOK//

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