Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Mar 2003 15:08:41 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 018
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 19.5S5 113.6E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 113.6E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 20.1S3 112.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 21.3S6 110.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 23.2S7 110.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 25.1S8 109.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 31.0S4 112.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 113.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOTH DEEP CONVECTION AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARD THEREAFTER
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, AS MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HOLDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. AFTER
24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COLDER SST
WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS
ARE IN GO0D AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL FURTHER WEST.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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