Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 01 Mar 2003 11:05:32 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/011800Z/021800ZMAR2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZMAR2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010751ZMAR2003//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 011200Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 23.7S2 37.6E6, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST, REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO 140
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 010600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRAHAM) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 20.6S8 120.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM INLAND OVER
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA, TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 280900) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 13.1S4 103.8E2 HAS
DEVELOPED AND REMAINED PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. A 011435Z4
SSM/I PASS INDICATED A GOOD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SURFACE ANALYSIS
STILL SUGGESTS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE AREA HAS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HEATH/EDBERG//

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