Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 02:47:39 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z7 --- NEAR 23.7S2 168.8W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S2 168.8W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 24.7S3 168.6W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 25.7S4 168.5W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 26.7S5 168.5W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 27.5S4 168.7W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 24.0S6 168.8W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INTO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1.//

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