Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 15:26:37 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 102100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- NEAR 15.6S2 64.2E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 64.2E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 17.3S1 63.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 19.2S2 63.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 21.0S3 62.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 23.1S6 61.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 64.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 101741Z4 SSM/I
PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH TC 16S
(GERRY). THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, UKMET (EGRR),
AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
AVN AND NOGAPS TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST, INDICATING NO
INTERACTION WITH TC 16S. BASED ON THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TWO
CYCLONES, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE EGRR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 100521ZFEB2003 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100530) NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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