Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Mar 2003 08:34:26 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z1 --- NEAR 14.4S9 69.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 69.7E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.1S7 68.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.0S7 68.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 16.9S6 67.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 17.8S6 66.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 69.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 23S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, HOLD STEADY AND
THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EQUATORWARD OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND THE UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090300Z2 AND 091500Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  21S (HARRIET)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT
KENDALL, USAF.//

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