Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Mar 2003 02:37:44 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z7 --- NEAR 12.0S3 157.8E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 157.8E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 12.6S9 158.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 13.3S7 159.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 13.9S3 160.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 14.8S3 161.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 158.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), HAS REGENERATED AND IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, AND HAS
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. RELEASED BY CAPT
KENDALL, USAF.//

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