Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 08:39:36 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 008
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z1 --- NEAR 15.4S0 73.0E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 73.0E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 16.4S1 74.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 17.6S4 76.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 19.2S2 78.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 20.9S1 79.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 73.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH TC
16S (GERRY). A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE CENTER, WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-
DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH TC 16S AND ENCOUNTERS
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
TLAPS, AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH TC 16S. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING.//

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