Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Feb 2003 23:42:56 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN/180600Z/190600ZFEB2003//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 11.5S7 172.5E5,
APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTHWEST OF FIJI ISLANDS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, BUT REMAINS DISORGANIZED. A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
BROAD TROUGH. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE AREA IS UNDER
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA//

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