Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 27 Feb 2003 14:49:23 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZFEB2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRAHAM) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z8 --- NEAR 17.9S7 120.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 120.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 18.3S2 121.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 18.8S7 121.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 19.3S3 122.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9  120.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (GRAHAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEADLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
271730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25,
30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. OUR FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH INCLUDE: NOGAPS, NCEP
AVIATION, UKMET GLOBAL MODEL, AND AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 20 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 270221Z FEB 03
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 270230). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280900Z9 AND 282100Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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