Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 07 Jan 2003 21:12:09 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070321ZJAN2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- NEAR 11.0S2 70.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 70.1E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 11.9S1 69.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 13.4S8 70.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 15.6S2 70.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 17.7S5 70.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4 70.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLIC DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED, AND HAS BEGUN TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL. TC 09S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE INITIALLY, THEN MORE
SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 070321Z JAN 03 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 070330). NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//

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