Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 14 Jan 2003 02:55:44 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z1 --- NEAR 21.0S3 177.9W4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 177.9W4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 25.0S7 173.9W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 35 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 28.9S9 167.4W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 39 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 32.9S4 159.6W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 176.9W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHEAST SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 22 NM IRREGULAR EYE. TC 10P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR),
TCLAPS, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHT AT 140600Z1
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5.//

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