Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 01 Apr 2003 20:19:49 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z2 --- NEAR 10.9S0 119.4E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 119.4E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 11.6S8 117.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 11.9S1 116.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 12.2S5 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 12.8S1 114.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 119.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUMBA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KNOTS. ANIMATED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING IN A
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AFTER 36 HOURS, TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWEST
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DIFFERENCES IN TRACK DIRECTION
AND SPEED ARE DUE TO VARYING INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES, AS
WELL AS SOME INTERACTION WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
SUMATRA. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 AND 030300Z6.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN//

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