Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 05 Feb 2003 17:29:14 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 12.0S3 110.8E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 110.8E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 12.1S4 109.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 12.2S5 107.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 12.4S7 106.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 12.9S2 104.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 14.7S2 101.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 110.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PRODUCTS DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM, MORE POLEWARD THEREAFTER, INTENSIFYING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF NGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL,
THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND
062100Z9.//

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