Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 07:01:25 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 101230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/101230Z/101800ZFEB2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZFEB2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100752ZFEB2003//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 100000Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA) LOCATED
NEAR 16.7S4 95.4E8, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 100 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 100600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7
54.2E1, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8
85.3E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 82.1E1, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS
IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
SOUTH OF DEEP CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS NEAR A POINT SOURCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9
65.3E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 65.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERY SMALL. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/RONSSE/ANDERSON/MENEBROKER//

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