Subject: Indian-S: Ocean/071800z/081800zfeb2003//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2003 12:43:27 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 071800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/071800Z/081800ZFEB2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071351ZFEB2003//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 071200Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S0 105.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAVA,
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTXS31 PGTW 071500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
92.4E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S1 90.7E6, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATE
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM IN A
MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 15.1S7 55.7E7, APPROXIMATELY
320 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. OVERNIGHT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PERSISTANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LLCC. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AREA IS UNDER FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006
MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KENDALL/JACOBS/VAN LOAN/NUTONGLA//

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