Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 14s (fiona) Warning Nr 015

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 21:10:57 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 110300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 015
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.8S6 92.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 92.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 18.9S8 90.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 20.6S8 90.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 22.2S6 90.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 23.7S2 92.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 91.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BY MID-PERIOD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND
NCEP GFS TRACK TC 14S INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A
PASSING MID-LAT TROUGH. NOGAPS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE
OTHER AIDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
FIRST GROUP OF DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z2 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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