Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2003 02:43:01 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 012
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z0 --- NEAR 20.2S4 162.0E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 162.0E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 21.3S6 163.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 22.3S7 165.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 23.9S4 169.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 26.2S0 172.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 162.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127
AND 140 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BELOW THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER, TC 22P IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT
KENDALL, USAF.//

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