Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Apr 2003 15:08:01 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 14.0S5 113.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 113.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 14.7S2 113.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 15.4S0 112.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 16.2S9 112.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 17.5S3 113.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 21.1S4 116.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   DISSIPATING OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 113.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC
26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
EARLY PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARDS, TC 26S WILL BEGIN RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
26S WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE SHORT TERM IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUING DURING
THE EARLY PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES THE RIDGE AXIS,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO AS THE POINT OF RECURVATURE DIFFERS IN THE MODELS.
NGPS, GFDN AND AFWA MM5 RECURVE EARLY, MAKING FOR LANDFALL EAST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR)
AND THE AUSTRALIAN TYPHOON MODEL (TCLAPS) RECURVE LATER, MAKING FOR
LANDFALL NEAR LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NGPS AND AFWA
MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z8, 050900Z4, 051500Z1 AND 052100Z8.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//

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