Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 05 Mar 2003 15:14:23 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 10.9S0 76.5E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 76.5E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 10.9S0 75.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 11.3S5 74.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 12.3S6 73.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 13.6S0 72.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.9S0 76.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 40 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 23S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN POLEWARD AS A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND
THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED
ON UKMET, THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT
060900Z5 AND 062100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT SMITH,
USN//

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