Subject: Pacific-SW: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 13:44:56 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 092100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- NEAR 22.2S6 169.2W8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 169.2W8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 23.5S0 169.2W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 24.7S3 169.3W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 25.6S3 169.5W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 26.7S5 170.0W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 22.5S9 169.2W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE EAST.
AFTERWARDS, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WILL INFLUENCE A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, INTO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ENTRAINS DRY AIR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN,
UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z8 IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.