Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Jan 2003 08:43:20 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z6 --- NEAR 24.0S6 42.2E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S6 42.2E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 25.5S2 42.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 26.4S2 43.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 24.4S0 42.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
WEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
301130Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC
DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTWARDS AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND PROPAGATES EASTWARDS FROM THE
SOUTH OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS, AS IT
TRACKS IN AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND AVN,
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
310300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (CILLA) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.