Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Feb 2003 17:09:24 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 262300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/262300Z/271800ZFEB2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZFEB2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 261500Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.4S7 39.2E4, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST OF MADAGASCAR, TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 261500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) A SURFACE CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3S1
118.8E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S3 119.2E3, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.5S9
42.4E0 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR.
4. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/RONSSE/ANDERSON//

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