Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 22 Jan 2003 12:04:43 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7
80.9E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 80.0E8, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 220639Z2 TRMM PASS DEPICTS A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0
122.9E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2 118.7E7, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.8S2
39.9E1, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IS NOW OVER LAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS WEAK AND
BECOMING DISORGANIZED. THEREFORE, THE AREA IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/GRUBER/LAM/KUMAGA//

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