Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2003 19:19:55 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 17.3S1 165.2W4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 165.2W4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 18.1S0 166.2W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 19.0S0 167.1W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 20.4S6 167.9W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 22.1S5 168.1W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 165.5W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. TC 15P HAS
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AND HAS FORMED A SMALL SYMMETRICAL EYE IN THE PAST
12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD
OUTFLOW REMAINS TO THE EAST AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY THE MID-PERIOD AS IT PROPAGATES
EASTWARD, CAUSING THE TRACK TO BECOME MORE POLEWARD. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE BUT BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.//

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