Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 14:51:20 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNING NR 005
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 16.6S3 69.6E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 69.6E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 16.2S9 71.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 15.9S5 72.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 16.4S1 73.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 17.5S3 73.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 70.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HAPE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1080 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
KNOTS 07 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 80
KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE
NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.  UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT TC 17S WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EQUATORWARD
INITIALLY THEN POLEWARD THEREAFTER, INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND
132100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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