Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 050051z Jan 03//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 04 Jan 2003 19:48:11 -0600

WTPS21 PGTW 050100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 050051Z JAN 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S7 133.6E3 TO 11.1S3
136.0E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 042330Z2 INDICATE
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.4S6 135.4E3. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RAINBANDS APPEAR TO BE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), THOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY, IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE RADAR LOOP FROM THE
GOVE SITE ON THE ARNHEM COAST. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE
OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060000Z6.//

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