Subject: Pacific-SW: Amembassy Suva Req Pass To Usaid Ofda Advisor

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 28 Jan 2003 09:15:41 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 281500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 15.6S2 161.0E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 161.0E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 16.4S1 161.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 17.3S1 162.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 18.0S9 164.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 18.9S8 165.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 161.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
04 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE
FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS.
A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR TASMANIA IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
BY 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN BY MID PERIOD AND TRACK
POLEWARD BY 48 HOURS. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z4 AND 291500Z7.//

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