Subject: Pacific-SW: Amembassy Suva Req Pass To Usaid Ofda Advisor

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 13 Jan 2003 19:55:09 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 140300 AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 005A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z5 --- NEAR 19.2S2 178.9W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 178.9W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 22.9S3 176.4W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 26.7S5 171.6W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 36 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 30.7S0 164.7W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 40 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 35.1S9 156.8W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 178.3W9.
THE 131800Z3 WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BASED ON VISIBLE AND
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
VENTILATED THE SYSTEM MORE THAN EXPECTED, INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 29 NM IRREGULAR EYE HAS FORMED.
TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW NEAR NEW ZEALAND. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN),
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND
142100Z8.//

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