Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Jan 2003 02:19:37 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z9 --- NEAR 11.4S6 179.9W6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 179.9W6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 12.4S7 179.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 13.9S3 180.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 15.6S2 179.5W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 17.9S7 177.8W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 180.0E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P,
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI  HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, WITH A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, BEFORE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD, AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP,
UK MET OFFICE, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND
130900Z3.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.