Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Jan 2003 01:40:06 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 230700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/230700Z/231800ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
80.0E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8 76.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING AND THE LOW-LEVEL
ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2
118.7E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8 116.3E1, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(2) TO FAIR AND
UPDATED PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/KENDALL/HEATH/EDBERG//

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