Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 15 Mar 2003 02:15:35 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z2 --- NEAR 29.0S1 178.7E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.0S1 178.7E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 31.6S0 176.8W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 33.9S5 172.0W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 29.7S8 179.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND AND HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
22P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOL AIR
ENTRAINMENT. TC 22P IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR), ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 18
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE,
USAF.//

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