Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Apr 2003 13:37:53 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 15.0S6 112.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 112.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 15.5S1 112.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 16.5S2 113.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 17.8S6 113.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 19.5S5 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 23.8S3 119.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 112.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. THE
CLOUD FILLED EYE HAS BECOME A BANDING EYE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC
26S HAS BEGUN RECURVATURE INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 26S
WILL TRANSITION TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND ENTRAIN DRIER AIR AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD, WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM AT AN INCREASING RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 48
HOURS, INTERACTION WITH LAND OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL
FURTHER INCREASE THE RATE OF DISSIPATION FOR THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
REASONING. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS, WITH A BIAS TOWARDS NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND
THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL (TLAPS) MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9, 060900Z5,
061500Z2 AND 062100Z9.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//

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