Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Apr 2003 14:41:37 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 16.4S1 113.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 113.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 17.7S5 113.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 19.4S4 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 21.5S8 117.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 23.5S0 120.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 113.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. TC 26S HAS BEGUN RECURVATURE AND BEGUN TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST, INCREASING TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 26S IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SPEED AND TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INCREASES. TC 26S IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AUSTRALIA, DISSIPATING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR
FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061800Z5 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0, 070900Z6, 71500Z3
AND 072100Z0.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//

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