Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 20:10:02 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- NEAR 12.1S4 107.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 107.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.4S7 105.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 12.9S2 104.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 13.8S2 102.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 14.9S4 101.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 107.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 60 AND 70 KNOTS. TC 14S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.//

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