Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 05 Feb 2003 08:31:23 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050451ZFEB2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z8 --- NEAR 11.8S0 110.8E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 110.8E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 12.0S3 109.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 12.1S4 107.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 12.3S6 105.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.5S8 104.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 14.0S5 101.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0  110.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
PRODUCTS DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE INTENSIFYING AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 050451Z FEB 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 050500) NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9,
060900Z5 AND 061500Z2.//

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