Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Apr 2003 03:24:05 -0500

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 15.3S9 112.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 112.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 15.6S2 112.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 16.5S2 112.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 18.0S9 113.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 20.4S6 115.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 25.1S8 123.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 112.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTH AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 26S
CONTINUES TO RECURVE INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH
THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
INCREASES. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD AUSTRALIA.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060600Z2 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2, 062100Z9, 070300Z0
AND 070900Z6. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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