Subject: Indian-N: Africa):

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 11:36:28 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 101800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 101200Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA) LOCATED
NEAR 16.7S4 93.4E6, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 101500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 100600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY) LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7
54.2E1, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7
82.1E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4 82.3E3, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE INDICATES
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AREA EQUATORWARD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1
65.0E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8 64.4E4, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE AREA
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. SEE REF C

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