Subject: Pacific-SW: South Pacific Ocean Reissued/042200z/050600zfeb2003//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 16:16:12 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 042200
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN REISSUED/042200Z/050600ZFEB2003//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.0S3 151.9E6
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6S6 148.8E1, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM OFF THE EAST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE NORTH OF ANY
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER WINDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 10.0S1 162.4W3, APPROXIMATELY
540 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
IS STARTING TO ORGANIZE AROUND A POSSIBLE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO POOR AND
ADDED PARA 2.B.(2).
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KENDALL/JACOBS/VAN LOAN/NUTONGLA//

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