Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Mar 2003 15:19:07 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080951ZMAR03//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951Z MAR 03//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNING NR 001
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- NEAR 11.2S4 128.7E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 128.7E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 10.9S0 128.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 10.6S7 129.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 10.4S5 129.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 10.5S6 130.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 128.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 24S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING EQUATORWARD FOR THE SHORT TERM, UNDER A MID-
LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLY FLOW, BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD OVER THE TOP
END OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A RIDGE OVER THE
CONTINENT, SOUTH OF TC 24S. CURRENT FORECAST REASONING CALLS FOR TC
24S TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY ENVIRONMENT, THEN
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR),
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND THE AUSTRALIA BOM MODELS (TLAPS AND TCLAPS)
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 080951Z MAR 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS23 PGTW 081000). NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND
092100Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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