Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Apr 2003 02:24:53 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 14.5S0 113.2E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 113.2E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 14.9S4 112.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 15.6S2 112.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 16.6S3 112.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 18.2S1 113.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 23.1S6 116.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 113.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
050530Z3 MULTI-SPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 130 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 18NM (APPROX.) SYMMETRICAL
EYE. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY RECURVE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS
INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A PASSING MID-LAT TROUGH. THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO CALL FOR LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA IN ABOUT
60 HOURS. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAIN DRYER AIR AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TWO CLUSTERS OF
MODELS DIFFER IN THE DEGREE OF WESTERLY INFLUENCE IN THE STORM
TRACK. NGPS AND AFWA MM5 CALL FOR A STRONGER WESTERLY INFLUENCE AND
TRACK TC 26S TOWARD PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. NCEP AVIATION (AVN),
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND THE AUSTRALIAN TC MODEL (TCLAPS) BRING TC
26S CLOSER TO LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. BASED ON CURRENT ANALYSIS, OUR
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE SECOND MODEL CLUSTER WITH EGRR, AVN,
AND TCLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1, 052100Z8, 060300Z9 AND 060900Z5.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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