Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 05 Mar 2003 02:38:51 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042121ZMAR2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 11.4S6 77.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 77.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 11.4S6 76.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 11.5S7 75.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 11.9S1 75.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 13.1S5 74.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 77.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEAL THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 36 HOURS BEFORE
TURNING POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON UKMET, THE BETA EFFECT
MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1
IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 042121ZMAR2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

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