Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 14s (fiona) Warning Nr 008

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2003 08:37:10 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 12.6S9 105.4E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 105.4E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 13.2S6 103.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 14.2S7 101.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.4S0 99.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.5S2 97.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 105.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING OUTFLOW OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
48 HOURS ALONG THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.//

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