Subject: Pacific-SW: Ref/a/rmg/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/110921zjan2003//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 2003 14:40:56 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 112100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110921ZJAN2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- NEAR 11.2S4 179.2W9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 179.2W9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 12.4S7 179.4W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 13.7S1 179.5W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 15.4S0 178.7W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 17.4S2 177.2W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 179.2W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH OF
THE FIJI ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED
INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS CYCLIC, HOWEVER, CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE. TC
10P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION
(AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), NOGAPS AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 110921Z JAN 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 110930). NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND
122100Z6.//

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