Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 14:08:30 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 092100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- NEAR 12.2S5 55.0E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 55.0E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 11.8S0 55.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 12.4S7 55.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 13.5S9 55.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 14.7S2 56.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 55.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS
SOMEWHAT BROAD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO LOOP TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT CONSOLIDATES
BEFORE TRACKING POLEWARD AS A DEEPENING TROUGH WEAKENS A RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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