Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 21s Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 03 Mar 2003 02:33:38 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 030900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 14.7S2 110.2E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 110.2E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 14.9S4 111.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 15.1S7 112.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.3S9 114.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 15.5S1 115.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 110.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1
MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
AND 30 KNOTS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 21S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF UKMET
(EGRR), GFDN, NOGAPS, AND GFS AVIATION (AVN). THE FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND
040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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