Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 08:17:53 -0600

WTXS34 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNING NR 006
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z7 --- NEAR 19.9S9 85.5E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 85.5E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 21.4S7 86.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 22.6S0 88.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 23.8S3 91.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 24.9S5 94.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 85.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (ISHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1064 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO COOL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE LOW TO THE
SOUTH. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND
141500Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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