Subject: Pacific-SW: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southpac

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 15:32:58 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- NEAR 25.3S0 168.0W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S0 168.0W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 26.2S0 167.9W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 27.2S1 168.3W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 25.5S2 168.0W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC
15P HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET
(EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0
IS 30 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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