Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 05 Mar 2003 21:24:16 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 052100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 002B AMENDED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 10.9S0 77.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 77.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 11.2S4 76.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 11.6S8 76.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.1S4 75.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 12.8S1 75.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 77.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER EAST BASED ON A
052032Z2 SSMI PASS. TC 23S HAS TRACED A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION,
HOWEVER THE ORGANIZATION HAS NOT IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. TC 23S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 23S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AVN AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 AND 070300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
21S (HARRIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.