Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 14 Mar 2003 02:19:43 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 014
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z1 --- NEAR 23.0S5 168.8E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 168.8E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 25.3S0 172.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 27.8S7 176.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 30.5S8 179.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 32.5S0 177.8W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 169.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
AND 90 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. TC 22P HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE INTERACTING WITH NEW CALEDONIA OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING IN INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE ALL IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH UKMET (EGRR) AS THE OUTLIER AT TAU 36 AND 48 WITH A
MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
DYNAMIC AIDS EXCEPT EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//

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