Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2003 20:24:07 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z3 --- NEAR 19.0S0 167.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 167.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 20.5S7 168.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 22.1S5 168.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 23.6S1 167.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 24.9S5 166.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 168.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 115 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD IN 12 HOURS. A DEEPENING TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD FROM TASMANIA AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY
24 HOURS. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS
BY MID PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 300000Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 AND 310300Z7.//

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