Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Jan 2003 20:00:10 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310000Z4 --- NEAR 22.1S5 168.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 168.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 23.2S7 166.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 24.0S6 164.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 24.3S9 162.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 24.0S6 159.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8  167.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO
55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 AND
010300Z4.//

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