Subject: Pacific-SW: South Pacific Ocean Reissued/112130z/120600zjan2003//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 2003 15:34:16 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 112130
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN REISSUED/112130Z/120600ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111951ZJAN2003//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111751ZJAN2003//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A SIGNIFICANT/
TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.5N7
109.6E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2 108.1E0, JUST OFF THE WESTERN
COAST OF BORNEO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CYCLIC BUT MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION, WITH THE LLCC
STATIONARY. 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1011 MB. BASED ON DECREASED ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2
179.9E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.0N2 178.8E4. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH A PULSE OF WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
EQUATOR, IN THE MID-LEVELS. DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND IS DISORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 111800Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P WAS LOCATED NEAR
11.2S4 179.2W9, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS,
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 112100) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9
135.8E7, IS NOW LOCATED OVER WATER NEAR 15.1S7 136.3E3,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. SCATTEROMETRY
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER BUT REMAINS VERY WEAK. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE,
OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. SEE REF B (ABIO10 PGTW
111800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6
178.9W5 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(2) TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING, DOWNGRADED PARA 1.B.(1) TO POOR AND UPDATED ALL
OTHER AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/INGRAM/JACOBS/VAN LOAN/COOK//

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