Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2003 20:08:48 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 018
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z5 --- NEAR 22.9S3 65.3E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 65.3E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 24.0S6 65.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 25.7S4 65.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 27.4S3 64.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 28.9S9 64.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 65.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BELOW
THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY, AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A
POLEWARD TRACK INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 23S WILL ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z5 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 AND 150300Z9.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

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