Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 15:20:33 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 102100
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 005
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- NEAR 11.8S0 54.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 54.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 12.4S7 55.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 13.1S5 56.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 14.3S8 57.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 15.8S4 58.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 54.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. A 101743Z6 SSM/I DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH TC 17S
LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR),
AVN AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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