Subject: Pacific-SW: 01 Active Tropical Cyclone In Southpac

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2003 02:12:24 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 070900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z3 --- NEAR 16.9S6 164.3W4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 164.3W4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 17.9S7 165.5W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 19.0S0 166.8W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 19.8S8 167.5W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 21.0S3 168.0W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 164.6W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC
15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS, ALONG THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A
DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD, CAUSING THE TRACK TO BECOME MORE POLEWARD. TC
15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON NGPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL,
THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//

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