Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Apr 2003 13:16:11 -0500

WTIO30 FMEE 111813
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER     :3/15/20022003
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 15  (LUMA)

2.A POSITION 2003/04/11 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 36.0 S / 64.9 E (THIRTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS     : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE     : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
 30 KT      NE:  200     SE:  250    SO: 300   NO:  150
50 KT     NE:  060    SE: 060   SO:  040  NO:  030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
 12H: 2003/04/12 AT 06 UTC:
 38.7 S/  73.0 E   MAX WIND =  050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24H: 2003/04/12 AT 18 UTC:
 43.6 S/  78.0 E   MAX WIND =  045 KT EXTRATROPICAL

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM STARTS TO WEAKEN THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND
SHOULD
FILL UP FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER COOLER WATERS DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION PH
ASE.=

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