Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Bulletin (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 01:52:21 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 140600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN              : 11/11/20022003
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (HAPE)
2.A POSITION AT 0600 UTC  14/02/2003 : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF
    POINT 15.8S/73.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
    SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST).
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                 : 3.0/3.5 PLUS /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE                : 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN)  : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
    NE30: 150 KM   SE30: 150 KM
    SW30: 150 KM   NW30: 150 KM
7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SMALL
1.B FORECAST 12H                    : 17.0S / 75.1E FI=3.5

2.B FORECAST 24H                    : 18.4S / 76.5E FI=3.5

3.B FORECAST 48H                    : 21.5S / 78.1E FI=3.0

4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS              : THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
    TO HAPE HAS WEAKENED UNDERGOING A MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-EASTWARD,
    WHERE WIND SHEAR IS WEAKER.=

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