Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 02 Jan 2003 11:40:38 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/021800Z/031800ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S1 91.0E0 HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED CYCLING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD TROUGH. RECENT MICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT PASSES SHOW THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 07.0S7
66.0E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1S8 66.5E7, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM WEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF POORLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH DEPICTED ON A RECENT
QUICKSCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/JACOBS/SCHAEFER/SPANSKI//

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