Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2003 08:54:49 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 013
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 18.4S3 64.9E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 64.9E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 18.8S7 64.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 19.4S4 64.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 20.1S3 63.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 20.8S0 63.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 64.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME COMPLETELY SYMMETRICAL. TC 23S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
23S WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INCREASINGLY POLEWARD OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND AFWA MM5, NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE EGRR MODEL HAS THE SYSTEM AT A WEAKER
INTENSITY AND RESULTS IN A STEERING LEVEL THAT PROPAGATES THE SYSTEM
MORE WESTWARD THAN THE OTHER DYNAMIC AIDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
A PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z6 AND 121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT
LEEJOICE, USAF.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.