Subject: Indian-S: Ocean/061800z/071800zjan2003//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 06 Jan 2003 11:12:49 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/061800Z/071800ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060551ZJAN2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE/
WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DELFINA), PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED OVER MOZAMBIQUE NEAR 15.1S7 39.4E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
17.3S1 38.2E3, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE,
MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, SYMMETRIC, LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM REMAINS BENEATH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND IS IN A REGION OF
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
NEAR 10.0S1 71.0E8. ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR
OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S1
134.0E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 132.0E6, OVER LAND IN AUSTRALIA
APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER
LAND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD. HOWEVER, UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC REMAINS UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. SEE REF A

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