Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Mar 2003 19:58:08 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 015
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 114.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 114.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 19.5S5 113.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 20.1S3 112.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 20.9S1 111.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 22.5S9 110.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 26.0S8 108.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 114.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THE 48 HOUR POINT, INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR),
TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 062330Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 071500Z3.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT MAZANY, USAF.//

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