Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Mar 2003 03:43:13 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 009
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z9 --- NEAR 16.9S6 159.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 159.7E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 17.9S7 160.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 18.7S6 160.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 19.4S4 162.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 20.0S2 164.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 159.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
120530Z1 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TC 22P IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG 17.0S8. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION
(AVN), AUSTRALIA TLAPS AND TCLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3. REFER TO TC 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) AND TC 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//

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