Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 15:07:49 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 007
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- NEAR 15.3S9 53.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 53.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 17.0S8 54.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 18.3S2 55.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 19.5S5 56.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 20.9S1 58.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 53.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHILE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THEN REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE,
NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS
(WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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