Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 09:01:52 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 012
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- NEAR 16.4S1 97.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 97.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 17.2S0 95.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 18.0S9 92.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 19.1S1 90.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 20.3S5 89.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 97.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
091130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE EYE HAS FILLED. COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC
14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5
AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z4 AND 101500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME)
WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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