Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 09 Mar 2003 15:00:37 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- NEAR 10.5S6 130.8E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 130.8E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 10.7S8 132.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 11.1S3 133.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 11.7S9 134.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 12.6S9 136.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 10.5S6 131.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, ACROSS THE
TOP END OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, IN NEAR EQUATORIAL WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION SLOWLY, DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION, IN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLY
ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) CONTINUE TO AGREE AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

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