Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 02:34:45 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 010
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z0 --- NEAR 19.4S4 58.5E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 58.5E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 21.0S3 60.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 22.5S9 61.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 24.0S6 63.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 25.2S9 65.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 58.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT TC 16S HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE AS IT
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS
(WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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