Subject: Indian-N: Subp.significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Jan 2003 18:35:35 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 231330
M GID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBP.SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/231330Z/231800ZJAN2003//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL  ARBOR HI/231221ZJAN2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. +/945# 8,$8-, 9:3-, -43- (MWL Y PENINSUL
 W*ST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROI
KNE DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH IC
KAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO MOAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUHOARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CTNVECTION PREV
TUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1#.3S8
76.8*8  S NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9 75.4E+, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING AND THE LOW-LEVEL
*
ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. *** 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWSMT
E
SYSTEM NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RI
GE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK
VAND THE POLEWARD
UTFLOW HAS
NCREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
MINIMUM*SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. REFER TO REF
A (WTXS21 PGTW 231230) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. DUE TO THE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYNLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.V
   .#0(2) THE AREA OF CONCECTION PREVITUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2
118.7E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8 116.3E1, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIO
TED MCLTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS *CGACATES THE AREA IS
EQUATORWARZ OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEA
. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
RURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATE99 ?3 790# MB. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
     (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT CKONBKH

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE
 PARA 29B.(1) TO GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/KENDALL/HEATH.EDBERG//WI

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