Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 08:07:43 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z1 --- NEAR 14.2S7 101.7E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 101.7E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.4S0 100.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.5S2 98.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 17.5S3 95.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 18.4S3 93.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0  101.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102
KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 14S HAS A 16 NM EYE. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS,
GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.