Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 261251z Jan 03//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 26 Jan 2003 07:56:01 -0600

WTPS22 PGTW 261300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261251Z JAN 03//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5S1 177.6E1 TO 17.5S3
178.9W5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 261130Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 15.9S5 178.2E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S3 177.5E0 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 15.9S5 178.2E8, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271300Z3.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED LOCATION IN PARA.2.//

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