Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Mar 2003 21:14:02 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 110300 RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 012
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.9S7 65.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 65.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 18.1S0 65.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 18.5S4 64.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 19.2S2 64.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 19.7S7 64.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 65.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED EHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AROUND
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. TC 23S WILL WEAKEN
SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POLEWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
AND AFWA MM5, NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
THE AVAILABLE MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND
120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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