Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Mar 2003 02:53:17 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 060900
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 11.3S5 76.3E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 76.3E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 11.9S1 75.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 12.5S8 74.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 13.1S5 74.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 13.9S3 73.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 76.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (KALUNDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
060530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS. A 060406Z6 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, AFWA MM5,
TLAPS, AND THE UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) MODELS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
21S (HARRIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN./

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