Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 18s Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 20:45:43 -0600

WTXS34 PGTW 120300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 003
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z3 --- NEAR 16.4S1 82.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 82.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 17.0S8 83.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 17.8S6 83.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 18.6S5 84.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 19.5S5 85.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3  82.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION AND
ORGANIZATION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BELOW A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE
AXIS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR)
AND NCEP GFS, GFDN, GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z9 AND 130300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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