Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Mar 2003 15:06:25 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 011
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 18.9S8 161.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 161.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 19.7S7 161.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 20.3S5 162.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 21.3S6 165.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 22.5S9 167.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 161.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, AND WAS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 100 AND 115 KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND
NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO,
ALL MAINTAIN THE GENERAL TRACK SOUTHEAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 132100Z7. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (CRAIG) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

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