Subject: Pacific-SW: Amembassy Suva Req Pass To Usaid Ofda Advisor

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2003 08:43:59 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 291500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z4 --- NEAR 17.8S6 165.0E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 165.0E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 19.2S2 166.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 20.3S5 167.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 21.8S1 166.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 23.4S9 164.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 165.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 127 AND 140 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EASTWARD BY 12 HOURS. A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD FROM TASMANIA AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY 24 HOURS. TC 12P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS BY MID PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION
(AVN), TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z4 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 AND 301500Z9.//

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