Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Jan 2003 08:18:49 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 231230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231221ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S6 75.9E1 TO 15.9S5 68.7E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
231200Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9
75.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS INCREASING AND THE LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241230Z2.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.