Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 04 Mar 2003 11:47:39 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040621ZMAR2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z7 --- NEAR 21.6S9 154.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 154.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 22.0S4 154.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 20.9S1 154.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 19.7S7 152.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 18.3S2 151.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0 154.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM, EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 22S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12
HOURS UNDER WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE BEFORE TURNING EQUATORWARD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTH OF TC 22S BUILDS EQUATORWARD. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP
AVIATION, AUSTRALIA'S GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AND UKMET (EGRR)
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE ABOVE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7
IS 15 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 040621ZMAR2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

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