Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 Jan 2003 20:56:51 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 110300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- NEAR 23.3S8 70.0E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S8 70.0E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 25.9S6 70.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 27.8S7 72.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 30.0S3 74.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 32.3S8 77.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 24.0S6 70.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
WRAPPING IN FROM WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WITH SHEARING ALSO
INDICATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 12 HOURS, COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NGPS, GFDN, UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. AFWA MM5 AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM, RATHER THAN COMPLETING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
A CONSENSUS OF NGPS, GFDN, EGRR AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 20 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z8 AND 120300Z6.//

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