Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2003 05:03:14 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z8 --- NEAR 13.2S6 158.8E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 158.8E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 14.3S8 159.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 15.5S1 160.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 16.5S2 160.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 17.5S3 161.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 158.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (ERICA), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
110530Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55
KNOTS. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 22P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR, BUT
WEAK OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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