Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2003 23:56:18 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z3 --- NEAR 22.2S6 42.8E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 42.8E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 23.3S8 41.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 25.3S0 41.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 27.3S2 43.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.5S9 42.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW OVER WATER. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND DISSIPATE BY THE 36 HOUR POINT, AS IT TRACKS IN AN
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND AVN, ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z3 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 AND 310300Z7.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.