Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Feb 2003 07:52:43 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 23.3S8 37.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S8 37.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 23.7S2 37.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 24.1S7 37.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 23.8S3 36.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 23.2S7 36.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.4S9 37.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281130Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS.
TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AFTERWARDS, TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS EQUATORWARD NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL
(EGRR), AFWA MM5 AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE IN
TRACK SOLUTION FOR 19S. NOGAPS TRACKS THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWARD TRACK AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD, GFDN AND AVN TAKE A MUCH
SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD AND EGRR CONTINUES TO
TRACK THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN THE RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF THE RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE
SYSTEM, AS WELL AS IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH,
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL FIELDS ACCOUNTING
FOR THE DISPARATE TRACKS. IN ALL CASES THE TRACK SPEED REMAINS SLOW
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MEANING THE SPATIAL DISTANCE BETWEEN
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW. IN CONSEQUENCE, POTENTIAL FOR
MODIFICATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY
HIGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 AND
011500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRAHAM) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//

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