Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 02 Apr 2003 21:15:36 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INIGO) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z3 --- NEAR 11.9S1 118.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 118.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 12.5S8 117.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 13.0S4 116.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 13.7S1 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 14.3S8 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 117.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INIGO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUMBA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
022330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. A 022334Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
INDICATES SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS DEVELOPED A 25 NM EYE. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 26S IS
NOW EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER THE RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING
SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, AND THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL (TLAPS)
AND REGIONAL (TCLAPS) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. AVIATION AND
EGGR INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM WEAKER AND AS A RESULT, TRACKS TC 26S
WESTWARD OF THE OTHER DYNAMIC AIDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON EGRR AND
AVIATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 AND 040300Z7.//

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