Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 14:51:20 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 009
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 17.9S7 55.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 55.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 19.2S2 57.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 20.7S9 58.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 22.1S5 60.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 23.5S0 62.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 56.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 75 KNOTS. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS, THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN
AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z3 AND 132100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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