Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 02:35:12 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 008
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z9 --- NEAR 16.6S3 54.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 54.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 17.9S7 55.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 19.3S3 57.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 20.8S0 58.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 22.2S6 60.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 54.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 36
HRS, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 17S (HAPE)(WTXS33 PGTW), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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