Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 2003 08:13:01 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EBULA) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 25.8S5 69.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S5 69.7E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 27.3S2 70.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 29.1S2 71.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 31.7S1 74.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 26.2S0 69.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EBULA), LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
INCREASINGLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
09S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING, AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING
SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 09S IS
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS INDICATED BY THE INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NGPS, GFDN, UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), AND
BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF NGPS, GFDN,
EGRR, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111200Z5 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9.//

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