Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Mar 2003 20:27:15 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 021
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- NEAR 21.0S3 111.3E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 111.3E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 22.2S6 109.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6 110.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME WEAK
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT THE SYSTEM IS
STILL VERY SMALL IN AREAL SIZE. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD, THEN SOUTH, PARALLEL TO THE AUSTRALIA COAST
IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA FROM THE INDIAN OCEAN. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
SHEAR, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH, AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TC 21S SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
WATER AS THE REMNANTS CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP
AVIATION, AND THE AUSTRALIA BOM MODELS (TLAPS AND TCLAPS) ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 11
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//

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