Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Mar 2003 23:42:37 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN/090600Z/100600ZMAR2003//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 22P PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9
154.8E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 154.8E8, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS CYCLING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5
172.0E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S2 172.2E2 APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE
AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/RONSEE/MENEBROKER//

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