Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 02 Mar 2003 14:23:10 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 14.9S4 108.3E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 108.3E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 15.3S9 109.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 15.6S2 110.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 15.9S5 112.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 16.0S7 113.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 108.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021421Z0 SSM/I PASS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 KNOTS AND THE SSM/I PASS. MIROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD CIRCULATION, HOWEVER ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO
POOR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS THROUGH 24 HOURS, ATERWARDS, TC
21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS THE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF UKMET (EGRR) AND NOGAPS. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF EGRR AND NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 030900Z2
AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE,
USAF.//

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