Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 23:59:28 -0600

WTXS22 PGTW 050500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 050451Z FEB 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S9 113.3E8 TO 12.2S5
107.6E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 050430Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9 112.6E0.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 113.6E1, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9 112.6E0 APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF JAVA.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTION NEAR A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060500Z1.//

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