Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 27 Jan 2003 15:04:25 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (CILLA) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z8 --- NEAR 19.9S9 173.9W0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 173.9W0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 20.3S5 172.0W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 20.5S7 170.5W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 20.7S9 168.5W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 20.8S0 166.1W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 20.0S2 173.4W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (CILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
271730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR, ENHANCED INFRARED, VISIBLE AND RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP CONVECTION IS STRONGEST IN
THE NORTHEAST SECTOR OF 13P AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES THE TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. OUTFLOW REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE POLEWARD.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH 36 HOURS,
THEN BEGIN A MORE EASTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER, WITH THE SYSTEM
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO SLOWLY
DISSIPATES 13P THROUGH 48 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z9 AND 282100Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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