Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 08:34:22 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z9 --- NEAR 12.0S3 108.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 108.9E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 12.2S5 107.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.6S9 105.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 13.3S7 104.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 14.3S8 102.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.1S8 99.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 108.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 55, AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9, 070300Z0, 070900Z6 AND 071500Z3.//

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