Subject: Pacific-SW: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 14:14:59 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 082100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- NEAR 19.6S6 168.0W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 168.0W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 20.8S0 168.5W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 22.2S6 168.5W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 23.6S1 168.0W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 24.7S3 167.3W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 168.1W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. TC 15P HAS A
14 NM SYMMETRICAL EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES ENHANCED OUTFLOW CONTINUES POLEWARD AND TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 16 HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, A MORE POLEWARD TRACK IS
FORECAST AS THAT RIDGE WEAKENS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE BUT BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTERWARDS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//

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