Subject: Indian-S: Immediate Delivery Req To Amembassy Port Louis

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2003 08:43:59 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 291500
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (FARI) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z4 --- NEAR 21.6S9 45.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 45.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 23.2S7 43.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 24.9S5 42.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 26.8S6 42.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 29.2S3 43.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 45.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (FARI), LOCATED OVER LAND APPROXIMATELY
170 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE OVER LAND AND
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UK MET GLOBAL, AND
AVN, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 09 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 AND
301500Z9.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.