Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 01 Jan 2004 03:54:45 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 010600

 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

 0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 13/4/20032004
 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4  (DARIUS)

 2.A POSITION 2004/01/01 AT 0600 UTC :
 WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5S / 59.0E
 (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
 EAST)

 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/4.0 /S  0.5/24 H
 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 980 HPA
 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
 30 KT       NE: 180   SE: 250   SO: 200   NO: 100
 50 KT       NE: 050   SE: 080   SO: 070   NO: 010

 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

 1.B FORECASTS:
 12H: 2004/01/01 18 UTC: 17.1S/58.9E, MAX WIND=055KT.
 24H: 2004/01/02 06 UTC: 18.0S/58.8E, MAX WIND=055KT.
 36H: 2004/01/02 18 UTC: 19.4S/58.1E, MAX WIND=045KT.
 48H: 2004/01/03 06 UTC: 20.9S/57.6E, MAX WIND=040KT.
 60H: 2004/01/03 18 UTC: 22.1S/57.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
 72H: 2004/01/04 06 UTC: 24.1S/57.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.

 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
 THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITS THE DEVELOPPMENT OF DARIUS,
 WHICH SEEMS HAVING  REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY LAST NIGTH.
 DARIUS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTHWARD, UNDERGOING A MID
 LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST, THEN MORE QUICKLY AT THE
 ARRIVAL OF A DEEP TROUGH IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM=

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