Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 02 Mar 2004 02:15:23 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 020900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EVAN) WARNING NR 004A
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 14.3S8 134.6E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 134.6E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 14.5S0 133.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 134.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 020530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FULLY EXPOSED WITH NO REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION. THE REMNANTS OF TC 15P ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA WITH A POSSIBILITY OF RE-
GENERATION IF THE LLCC EMERGES OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP
GFS, GFDN AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TC 15P REMAINING
OVERLAND FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC AIDS
HAVE NOT INITIALIZED OR VERIFIED WELL ON THE CURRENT SPEED OR
INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DATE/TIME GROUP.//

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