Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 04 Mar 2004 02:43:28 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 12.2S5 59.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 59.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 12.3S6 57.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 12.5S8 56.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 13.3S7 54.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 14.3S8 53.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 59.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
490 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. A RECENT ADVANCED MICROWAVE SOUNDING
UNIT (AMSU) PASS AT 040616Z7 SHOWS THAT TC 16S HAS FORMED
A SMALL, SYMMETRICAL EYE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
AND THEN BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN,
AFWA, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGGR
DOES NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AS FAST AS THE OTHER RESULTING
IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//

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