Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 08:25:31 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z5 --- NEAR 7.9S6 173.8W9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S6 173.8W9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 8.4S2 173.6W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 9.3S2 174.0W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 10.2S3 174.4W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 11.6S8 174.3W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 14.7S2 172.9W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 8.0S8 173.8W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
350 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND
THEN CONTINUE RECURVING TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS
ARE SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS DEPICT
A SHARP RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE TC RECURVING BACK UPON ITSELF
AND CROSSING OVER THE HISTORICAL TRACK. THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MORE GRADUAL RECURVE SITUATION. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5, 030300Z6, 030900Z2 AND 031500Z9.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.