Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 06 Feb 2004 11:49:23 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 061758
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 47/6/20032004
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6  (EX-ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/06 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.2S / 51.9E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 250   SE: 500   SO: 500   NO: 500

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/07 06 UTC: 26.0S/51.8E EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2004/02/07 18 UTC: 25.9S/51.5E EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2004/02/08 06 UTC: 25.7S/51.3E EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2004/02/08 18 UTC: 25.5S/51.2E EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2004/02/09 06 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SEVERAL LOWS EXIST WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
MODELS DIFFER A LOT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK. THEY ALL MAKE IT SLOW
BUT
 IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, FOLLOWING THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOON FLOW OR THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING IN THE
SOUTHWEST. UK MO ADOPTS A SOUTHWARDS TRACK, ECMWF AN EASTWARDS ONE,
AND
ARP/T A NORTHWARDS
 ONE.=

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