Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 06 Feb 2004 00:49:27 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 060600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 45/6/20032004
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6  (EX-ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/06 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.9S / 52.3E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 400   SE: 600   SO: 600   NO: 400

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1500
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/06 18 UTC: 27.1S/52.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2004/02/07 06 UTC: 26.9S/53.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2004/02/07 18 UTC: 26.7S/54.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2004/02/08 06 UTC: 26.8S/53.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2004/02/08 18 UTC: 27.4S/53.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2004/02/09 06 UTC: 27.5S/54.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SEVERAL LOWS EXIST WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
MODELS DIFFER A LOT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK. THEY ALL MAKE IT SLOW
BUT
 IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, FOLLOWING THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOON FLOW OR THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING IN THE
SOUTHWEST. UK MO ADOPTS A SOUTHWARDS TRACK, ECMWF AN EASTWARDS ONE,
AND
ARP/T A NORTHWARDS
 ONE.=

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