Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Mar 2004 22:22:01 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.3S1 89.0E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 89.0E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 18.8S7 87.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 20.4S6 86.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 22.0S4 85.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 24.0S6 84.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5   88.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC
17S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR, TLAPS, TCLAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT THEIR TRACKS
SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.