Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 08 Mar 2004 14:55:16 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 014
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- NEAR 18.7S6 43.0E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 43.0E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 19.5S5 42.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 20.6S8 43.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 21.5S8 44.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 22.7S1 45.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 42.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-WESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE BACK OVER MADAGASCAR. TC 16S IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AGAIN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE DYNAMIC AID EGRR IS NOT IN AGREEMENT DUE TO
OVER DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, EXCLUDING EGRR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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