Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2004 17:58:16 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 122330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/122330Z-131800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121351ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122251ZMAR2004//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 121200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA)
WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8S8 85.6E9, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTHWEST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 121500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.5S9
46.4E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.7S1 47.3E4, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS REVEALED A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS AND REMAINS OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SEE REF B

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