Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 03 Feb 2004 14:44:02 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 015
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 18.2S1 70.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 70.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 18.9S8 71.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 20.1S3 71.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 21.3S6 71.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 22.4S8 71.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 70.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 640 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 102 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO REDUCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
ADDITIONALLY, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DRY AIR
ON THE EQUATORWARD SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE TC WHICH MAY BEGIN
TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3
AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.

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