Subject: Pacific-SW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 Feb 2004 11:15:07 -0600

WTPS21 PGTW 101700
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5S9 146.2E3 TO 14.4S9
142.7E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MET
SAT IMAGERY AT 101521Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 145.6E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTH
WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5
147.1E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 145.6E6, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT STEWART, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING AND A RAPID
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 111700Z0.//
4. RELEASED BY: LCDR ARENDS, USN.

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