Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2004 14:32:24 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z8 --- NEAR 24.3S9 170.7E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S9 170.7E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 28.5S5 172.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 34.6S3 175.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 34 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 40.6S0 179.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 25.4S1 171.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS ACCLERATED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. A RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THAT TC 13P STILL HAS A 12 NM IRREGULAR
EYE. HOWEVER, TC 13P HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DIMINISHED
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 13P
WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 24 TO 36
HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR),
NOGAPS, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9
AND 282100Z3.//

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