Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 31 Jan 2004 12:07:17 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 311800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 23/6/20032004
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 6  (EX-ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/31 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8S / 44.6E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/01 06 UTC: 21.0S/42.7E, MAX WIND=025KT .
24H: 2004/02/01 18 UTC: 20.3S/41.6E, MAX WIND=030KT .
36H: 2004/02/02 06 UTC: 19.3S/41.2E, MAX WIND=035KT .
48H: 2004/02/02 18 UTC: 18.8S/42.5E, MAX WIND=035KT .
60H: 2004/02/03 06 UTC: 19.5S/43.7E, MAX WIND=040KT .
72H: 2004/02/03 18 UTC: 20.5S/44.0E, MAX WIND=050KT .

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTRE OF THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION SHOULD GO BACK OVER THE WARM
WATER
 OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND EX-ELITA SHOULD
FIND
AGAIN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST AND
GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW).=

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