Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2004 02:29:57 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- NEAR 21.3S6 169.3E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 169.3E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 24.3S9 170.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 28.4S4 171.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 32.6S1 173.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 37.6S6 176.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.1S5 169.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DIMINISHED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 13P
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 AND 280900Z9.//

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