Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Mar 2004 03:20:17 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (GRACE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z0 --- NEAR 20.3S5 155.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 155.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 21.5S8 157.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 22.9S3 159.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 24.0S6 161.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 25.1S8 163.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 156.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (GRACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
600 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED MULTIPSECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 19P
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND 230900Z4.//

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