Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 26 Jan 2004 07:32:09 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 261300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261251Z JAN 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.8S5 42.8E4 TO 21.5S8 44.6E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 261200Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3S2 43.4E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTMATED TO BE 1002 MB.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271300Z3.//

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