Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 28 Feb 2004 02:59:13 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z6 --- NEAR 19.3S3 117.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 117.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 19.4S4 116.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 19.9S9 115.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 20.7S9 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 21.8S1 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 25.0S7 117.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 117.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 280530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC
14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN
POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TS 14S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MID-PERIOD AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6, 282100Z3, 290300Z4
AND 290900Z0.//

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