Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2004 11:11:19 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 121716
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 9/10/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10  (HELMA)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/12 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1S / 85.6E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/3.0 /W  1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 120   SO: 120   NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1800
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/13 06 UTC: 21.0S/85.5E, MAX WIND=035KT.
24H: 2004/03/13 18 UTC: 22.5S/85.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2004/03/14 06 UTC: 24.5S/84.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
48H: 2004/03/14 18 UTC: 26.0S/84.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2004/03/15 06 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
HELMA IS STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
SHOULD
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARDS.=

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