Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 15 Mar 2004 15:28:58 -0600

WTXS22 PGTW 152030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 152022ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW/
152000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S4 130.7E1 TO 11.8S0
126.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 151730Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 130.3E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
131.2E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 130.3E7, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SUSTAINED CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THE SURFACE.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE REGION WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 162030Z2.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.2S9 85.6E9.//

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