Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 05 Feb 2004 19:37:11 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 060000

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 38/7/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7  (FRANK)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/06 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 72.0E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/4.0 /W  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 450   SE: 200   SO: 100   NO: 400
50 KT       NE: 130   SE: 050   SO: 040   NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A
VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/06 12 UTC: 22.6S/73.2E, MAX WIND=055KT.
24H: 2004/02/07 00 UTC: 24.0S/74.4E, MAX WIND=050KT.
36H: 2004/02/07 12 UTC: 25.3S/75.7E, MAX WIND=050KT.
48H: 2004/02/08 00 UTC: 26.7S/77.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2004/02/08 12 UTC: 27.8S/78.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2004/02/09 00 UTC: 29.0S/79.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5 ET CI=4.0+.
THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHEASTERLY SHEARED.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH.

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