Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2004 02:33:27 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z5 --- NEAR 13.2S6 126.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 126.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 13.5S9 125.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 13.8S2 125.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 14.0S5 124.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 14.4S9 123.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 126.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS BEEN MOSTLY
QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 172330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
AND 65 KNOTS AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. RECENT ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA SHOWS A DEFINITE CIRCULATION JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CAPE TALBOT. AN 180700Z6 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT
TROUGHTON ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AT 27 KNOTS AND A MEAN
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 994.1 MB. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
BUT AT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN A CLIMOTOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO INFLOW OF
HOT, DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL THE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND 190900Z9.//

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