Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 07 Jan 2004 14:45:27 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 025
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 28.8S8 160.6W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S8 160.6W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 31.6S0 158.0W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 34.1S8 155.8W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 36.4S3 154.2W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 29.5S6 159.9W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 071730Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS COOLER, DRIER AIR BEING
ENTRAINED FROM THE WEST WHICH IS CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH
MID-LATITUDE NORTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR),
AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.//

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