Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Mar 2004 02:45:37 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 017
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z7 --- NEAR 22.4S8 45.0E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S8 45.0E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 23.2S7 46.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 23.7S2 47.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 23.9S4 47.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 24.1S7 48.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 22.6S0 45.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 16S MADE LANDFALL AT
APPROXIMATELY 102300Z6 JUST NORTH OF MOROMBE, MADAGASCAR. THE
100000Z1 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT MOROMBE REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 27 KNOTS AND A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 986.8 MILLIBARS.
TC 16S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ISLAND OF MADAGASCAR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, AND NCEP
GFS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
INITIALLY AND THEN ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS NOT APPLICABLE.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (NICKY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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