Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 02 Feb 2004 12:18:00 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 021800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 31/6/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6  (ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/02 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4S / 43.4E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 /D  1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 500   SE: 150   SO: 500   NO: 500
50 KT       NE:       SE: 060   SO: 060   NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/03 06 UTC: 20.0S/44.4E, MAX WIND=050KT .
24H: 2004/02/03 18 UTC: 21.1S/45.4E OVERLAND.
36H: 2004/02/04 06 UTC: 22.1S/46.9E OVERLAND.
48H: 2004/02/04 18 UTC: 22.5S/47.8E OVERLAND.
60H: 2004/02/05 06 UTC: 23.1S/48.6E, MAX WIND=020KT .
72H: 2004/02/05 18 UTC: 24.3S/48.9E, MAX WIND=025KT .

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ELITA BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD AGAIN TOWARDS THE MALAGASY COAST. IT IS
EXPECTED TO LAND NEAR MORONDAVA IN THE NEXT HOURS.
ELITA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACCROSS MADAGASCAR COMING BACK ONCE MORE
OVER
INDIAN OCEAN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.=

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