Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Mar 2004 06:53:07 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 141258
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 46/9/20032004
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 9  (GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/14 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3S / 56.4E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 100   SE: 100   SO: 100   NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/15 00 UTC: 27.8S/59.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2004/03/15 12 UTC: 28.6S/62.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2004/03/16 00 UTC: 28.3S/64.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2004/03/16 12 UTC: 26.9S/63.6E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2004/03/17 00 UTC: 25.8S/62.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
72H: 2004/03/17 12 UTC: 25.0S/61.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INTENSIFYING WITH BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF
A SMALL CLUSTER ABOVE TE LLCC IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW
SHOULD
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE THE POLAR FRONT AND INTENSIFY LIGHTLY (DUE
TO
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, SST OF 26 TO 29AOC), AND THEN SLOWDOWN
AND
TURN NOTHW
ESTWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.=

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.