Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 29 Feb 2004 02:46:40 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290600Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 115.8E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 115.8E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 20.1S3 115.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 21.3S6 115.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 22.8S2 116.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 24.9S5 117.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 115.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 290530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115 KNOTS. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 15 NM EYE. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND TRACK OVER LAND.
TC 14S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND
TLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7, 292100Z4,
010300Z4 AND 010900Z0.//

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