Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 25 Mar 2004 00:14:53 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 250623
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/11/20032004
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11

2.A POSITION 2004/03/25 AT 0600 UTC :
9.3S / 53.9E
(NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/25 18 UTC: 09.0S/53.5E, MAX WIND=020KT.
24H: 2004/03/26 06 UTC: 08.7S/54.1E, MAX WIND=020KT.
36H: 2004/03/26 18 UTC: 09.5S/54.5E, MAX WIND=020KT.
48H: 2004/03/27 06 UTC: 10.0S/54.0E, MAX WIND=020KT.
60H: 2004/03/27 18 UTC: 10.5S/53.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2004/03/28 06 UTC: 11.5S/53.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
THE MONSOON FLOW IS STRONGER AND MOISTER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK.
AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=

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