Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 28 Jan 2004 09:03:33 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 281200

 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

 0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 4/7/20032004
 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7  (FRANK)

 2.A POSITION 2004/01/28 AT 1200 UTC :
 14.2S / 64.4E
 (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
 EAST)

 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/3.5 /D  2.0/24 H
 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 982 HPA
 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
 30 KT       NE: 150   SE: 300   SO: 300   NO: 150

 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

 1.B FORECASTS:
 12H: 2004/01/29 00 UTC: 15.2S/64.0E, MAX WIND=055KT .
 24H: 2004/01/29 12 UTC: 16.2S/63.8E, MAX WIND=065KT .
 36H: 2004/01/30 00 UTC: 16.8S/63.4E, MAX WIND=065KT .
 48H: 2004/01/30 12 UTC: 17.2S/63.0E, MAX WIND=080KT .
 60H: 2004/01/31 00 UTC: 17.5S/62.7E, MAX WIND=080KT .
 72H: 2004/01/31 12 UTC: 17.8S/62.3E, MAX WIND=085KT .

 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
 T=CI=3.5+.
 UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS  ALLOWS TO EXPECT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
 THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALY SOUTHWARD, THEN IT IS EXPECTED
  TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH.

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