Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 24 Feb 2004 15:00:11 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z5 --- NEAR 14.6S1 168.2E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 168.2E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 16.1S8 167.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 17.8S6 167.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 20.0S2 167.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 22.8S2 168.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6  168.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
190 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 241730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING IMPROVED OUTFLOW THROUGH A A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP TO 48 HOURS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z6 AND 252100Z0.//

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