Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 03 Jan 2004 20:47:18 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z4 --- NEAR 17.6S4 116.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 116.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 18.4S3 115.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 19.5S5 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 20.4S6 114.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 21.2S5 113.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 21.4S7 112.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 116.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 032330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
TC 08S CONTINUES TO REMAIN WEAK. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE. TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE AVAILABLE AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR).
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z4 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3, 041500Z0, 042100Z7 AND
050300Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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