Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 03 Jan 2004 02:47:00 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 10.0S1 174.0W2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 174.0W2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 11.2S4 174.1W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 12.5S8 174.1W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 14.0S5 173.7W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 15.7S3 172.6W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 20.5S7 168.4W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 10.3S4 174.0W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 030530Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. A 030554Z7 SSM/I PASS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 07P IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 36 HOURS,
AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET
(EGRR), GFDN, WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9, 032100Z6, 040300Z7 AND 040900Z3.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.