Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 22 Feb 2004 14:29:43 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212021FEB2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z3 --- NEAR 15.9S5 173.7E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 173.7E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 15.8S4 172.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 16.0S7 171.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 16.8S5 169.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 17.8S6 168.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 173.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
320 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CAUSING TC 13P TO TRACK
MORE POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS MODELS. THIS WARNING SUPER-
SEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 212030) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 AND 232100Z8.//

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