Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 04 Mar 2004 14:45:03 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 042100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 13.1S5 58.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 58.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 13.9S3 56.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 14.7S2 54.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 15.3S9 53.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 16.1S8 51.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 57.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
NORTH OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 and
90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-
WESTWARD FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CONVECTION,
THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEYOND CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO EXCELLENT POLAR,
CROSS EQUATORIAL, AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR,
GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8.//

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