Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 25 Jan 2004 11:37:06 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZJAN2004//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7 51.7E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2 53.5E3, APPROXIMATELY 200NM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS DIFFUSE CONVECTION WITH NO DISCERNABLE CENTRAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW BUT MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0 62.2E0 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S4 62.4E2, APPROXIMATELY 750NM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 200 MB
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S0 43.5E2,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S0 42.8E4, APPROXIMATELY 85NM OFF THE WEST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/VOHS//

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