Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2004 23:46:42 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 310600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 15/7/20032004
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7  (FRANK)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/31 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 61.7E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.5/6.0 PLUS /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 200   SE: 250   SO: 200   NO: 250
50 KT       NE: 100   SE: 100   SO: 100   NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/01/31 18 UTC: 15.9S/61.1E, MAX WIND=090KT.
24H: 2004/02/01 06 UTC: 17.5S/61.0E, MAX WIND=100KT.
36H: 2004/02/01 18 UTC: 19.2S/61.8E, MAX WIND=100KT.
48H: 2004/02/02 06 UTC: 20.5S/63.1E, MAX WIND=095KT.
60H: 2004/02/02 18 UTC: 21.3S/64.9E, MAX WIND=090KT.
72H: 2004/02/03 06 UTC: 22.0S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS LIGHTLY WEAKENED DUE TO ITS STATIONNARITY. IT SHOULD
RE-INTENSIFY AS IT WILL START TO TRACK SOUTHWARD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN
HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED IN THE SOUTH.=

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