Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 03 Feb 2004 12:14:23 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 031800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 35/6/20032004
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 6  (EX-ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/03 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 47.4E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 600   SE: 800   SO: 800   NO: 500

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/04 06 UTC: 22.4S/48.4E, MAX WIND=040KT.
24H: 2004/02/04 18 UTC: 23.3S/49.7E, MAX WIND=050KT.
36H: 2004/02/05 06 UTC: 24.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=055KT.
48H: 2004/02/05 18 UTC: 25.2S/51.9E, MAX WIND=060KT.
60H: 2004/02/06 06 UTC: 26.2S/53.1E, MAX WIND=060KT.
72H: 2004/02/06 18 UTC: 26.8S/54.3E, MAX WIND=060KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
MODELS DO REINTENSIFY ELITA ONCE IT'S OFF MADAGASCAR. THEY DO DIFFER
ON
TRACK. UK-MO MAKES IT RETURN FOR THE FOURTH TIME OVER MADAGASCAR,
ECMWF
KEEPS ON TRACKING GENERALLY AND SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS, AND ARP/T MAKES IT
UNDERGO FRANK'S INFLUENCE, AND MAKES IT KEEPS ON TRACKING TOWARDS
MASCARENES ISLANDS.=

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