Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 02 Feb 2004 15:07:44 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 013
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 17.2S0 69.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 69.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 18.1S0 70.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 19.3S3 71.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 20.7S9 71.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 22.4S8 72.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 69.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 600 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM TAU 24 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 10S WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND
032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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