Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 06 Jan 2004 22:26:05 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 023
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 22.3S7 167.0W4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S7 167.0W4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 25.1S8 164.5W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 27.8S7 162.0W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 30.3S6 159.4W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 33.1S7 156.6W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 23.0S5 166.4W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 061730Z7 ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90, 102 AND
115 KNOTS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE NORTHWESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET
(EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z6 AND 072100Z0.//

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