Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 07 Mar 2004 03:36:21 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 070930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/070930Z-071800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751Z MAR 04//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
 (1) AT 070600Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7 49.3E6, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-NORTH
EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WEST AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31
PGTW 070900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 15P (EVAN) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.6S5 118.5E5, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0S0 116.3E1, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY
INDICATES A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS MARGINABLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0S5 89.2E9,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION OVER A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT ON QUIKSCAT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
        (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARA 2.B.(2) AS A POOR.
RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM:  KENDALL/RONSSE/VOHS//

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