Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 010251z Mar 04//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 29 Feb 2004 21:03:50 -0600

WTPS21 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 010251Z MAR 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S3 134.8E6 TO 13.9S3 140.2E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MET-SAT IMAGERY AT
292330Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5
138.2E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.1S6 137.9E0 IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S5 138.2E4, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD LINES CONVERGING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION INCREASING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 020300Z5.//

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