Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 08 Jan 2004 02:54:42 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 026
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 31.7S1 158.7W1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.7S1 158.7W1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 33.9S5 157.4W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 32.3S8 158.4W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
SOUTH OF RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
080530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT TC 07P HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE LOW LEVEL REMAINS EXPOSED WITH COLD, DRY AIR
ENTRAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND COMPLETE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 20 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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