Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2004 15:12:24 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z8 --- NEAR 13.2S6 126.0E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 126.0E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 13.5S9 125.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 14.0S5 124.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 14.6S1 123.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 15.2S8 122.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 125.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 181730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
AND 77 KNOTS. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, BUT
WILL BE HINDERED SLIGHTLY BY EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS,
TCLAPS AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AIDS WITH AN INCREASED
EMPHASIS ON TLAPS AND TCLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.//

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