Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 23 Mar 2004 17:13:43 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 232100 RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z4 --- NEAR 8.5S3 56.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S3 56.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 8.6S4 56.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 8.9S7 55.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 9.5S4 55.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 10.1S2 54.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 8.5S3 56.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 825 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
AND HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 KNOTS AND QUIKSCAT WINDS DEPICTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS NORTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THEN
BEGIN TO TRACK POLEWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THEN INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS AS TWO OF THE THREE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS,
WBAR, AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS
INITIALIZES ON TC 21S AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM AND DOES NOT EXPECT IT TO
DEVELOP MUCH DUE TO A FORECASTED ENVIRONMENT OF LINEAR FLOW ALOFT AND
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
EGRR, WBAI AND GFS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 AND
242100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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