Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 02 Mar 2004 03:20:17 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 020930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/020930Z-021800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/020152ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/020853ZMAR2004//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/020821ZMAR2004//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A/
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 020000Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 22.0S4 116.1E9, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHEAST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65
KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 020000) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
        (2) AT 020600Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (EVAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8 134.6E4, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 2 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 020900 COR) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
        (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7
71.2E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4E7 70.7E4, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. SEE REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 020830) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
        (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARA 2.A.(2) AND UPGRADED PARA
2.B.(1) TO GOOD.
4. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/NOREN/VOHS//

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