Subject: Indian-N: A. Tropical Cyclone Summary: None.

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 26 Jan 2004 07:53:33 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 261330
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 63.3E2
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0 64.1E1, APPROXIMATELY 820NM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 200 MB
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0 42.9E5,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S2 43.4E1, APPROXIMATELY 50NM OFF THE WEST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO GOOD AND
UPDATED PARA 2.B.(1).
4. RELEASED BY: LT MOHAMMED, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/DIXON/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//

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