Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Mar 2004 05:24:39 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 141130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141130Z-150600ZMAR2004//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 3.0N3 142.6E3,
APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT 140812Z6 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY LARGE
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE UNDER
AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION NEAR THE
STRONGEST WINDS. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 1.B.(1). TO POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/VOHS//

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