Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 26 Jan 2004 03:57:55 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 261000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/261000Z-261800ZJAN2004//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S7 51.7E3
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S4 62.4E2
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 63.3E2, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED CONVECTION WITH A BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2S0 42.8E4,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0 42.9E5, APPROXIMATELY 70NM OFF THE WEST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. LATEST ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS FAIR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1), UPGRADED
AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO FAIR AND UPDATED PARA 2.B.(3).
4. RELEASED BY: LT MOHAMMED, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/DIXON/JACOBS/SCHULTZ//

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