Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 24 Feb 2004 02:56:01 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z2 --- NEAR 13.7S1 169.1E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 169.1E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 14.3S8 168.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 15.4S0 167.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 16.9S6 167.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 18.8S7 167.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 168.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
245 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW,
APPROACHING TC 13P FROM THE SOUTHWEST, HAS CUT-OFF POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 240539Z3 TRMM PASS AND
A 240710Z4 SSM/I PASS DEPICT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO FILL AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD. AS THIS LOW MOVES OUT,
OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 48 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND
NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND
250900Z6.//

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