Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 05 Jan 2004 02:38:25 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 018
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 14.5S0 173.6W7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 173.6W7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 16.4S1 172.6W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 18.6S5 170.8W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 21.5S8 168.5W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 24.1S7 165.8W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 29.7S8 160.2W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 173.3W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 140 KNOTS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALONG A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITIONS INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z1, 052100Z8, 060300Z9 AND 060900Z5.//

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