Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 05 Feb 2004 06:16:09 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 051200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 36/7/20032004
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7  (FRANK)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/05 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5S / 70.7E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/5.0 /W  1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 350   SE: 350   SO: 200   NO: 300
50 KT       NE: 080   SE: 060   SO: 060   NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/06 00 UTC: 21.4S/71.4E, MAX WIND=070KT .
24H: 2004/02/06 12 UTC: 22.5S/72.5E, MAX WIND=060KT .
36H: 2004/02/07 00 UTC: 23.8S/73.6E, MAX WIND=050KT .
48H: 2004/02/07 12 UTC: 25.1S/74.9E, MAX WIND=040KT .
60H: 2004/02/08 00 UTC: 26.7S/75.4E, MAX WIND=030KT .
72H: 2004/02/08 12 UTC: 28.5S/76.0E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
TROUGH.=

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