Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 26 Feb 2004 03:04:14 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z4 --- NEAR 17.6S4 168.4E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 168.4E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 19.2S2 168.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 21.3S6 169.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 23.8S3 170.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 27.1S0 170.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 168.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 260530Z6 ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. TC 13P HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND, DIMINISHED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 AND 270900Z8.//

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