Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2004 14:19:40 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z6 --- NEAR 16.3S0 167.8E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 167.8E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 18.0S9 168.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 19.9S9 168.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 21.9S2 168.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 24.5S1 169.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 167.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90, 102 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A 10 NM EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY THROUGH
24 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WESTERLIES.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z7 AND 262100Z1.//

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