Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Mar 2004 20:33:04 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- NEAR 18.2S1 91.4E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 91.4E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 19.3S3 91.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 20.4S6 90.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 21.8S1 90.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 23.2S7 91.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 91.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
480 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, TLAPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS, AFWA, EGRR
AND GFDN ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 AND 280300Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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