Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 09 Mar 2004 03:17:13 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 090900 RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 015
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z5 --- NEAR 19.7S7 42.0E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 42.0E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 21.1S4 42.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 22.5S9 43.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 23.6S1 43.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 24.5S1 44.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.0S2 42.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 16S IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND THEN WEAKEN
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5,
WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE DYNAMIC AID EGRR
CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER DUE TO EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH
A SECONDARY CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST THAT THE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT INITIALIZE ON. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, EXCLUDING EGRR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  17S (NICKY)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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