Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 28 Jan 2004 01:09:43 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 280600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 3/7/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7  (FRANK)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/28 AT 0600 UTC :
13.0S / 64.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 180   SE: 100   SO: 100   NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 350 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/01/28 18 UTC: 14.3S/63.9E, MAX WIND=050KT.
24H: 2004/01/29 06 UTC: 15.3S/63.5E, MAX WIND=055KT.
36H: 2004/01/29 18 UTC: 15.7S/63.2E, MAX WIND=065KT.
48H: 2004/01/30 06 UTC: 16.0S/62.7E, MAX WIND=075KT.
60H: 2004/01/30 18 UTC: 16.3S/62.2E, MAX WIND=080KT.
72H: 2004/01/31 06 UTC: 16.8S/61.6E, MAX WIND=095KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0+.
UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS  ALLOWS TO EXPECT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALY SOUTHWARD, THEN IT IS
EXPECTED
 TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH.=

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