Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 05 Feb 2004 02:06:03 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 018
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 19.9S9 69.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 69.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 20.7S9 70.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 21.7S0 70.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 22.7S1 72.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 23.9S4 73.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 70.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 700 NM EAST OF
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90
AND 102 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
DECREASES. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. GFS FIELDS INDICATE
FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, RESULTING IN A FASTER
TRACK. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z1 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//

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