Subject: Pacific-SW: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Mar 2004 07:17:44 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 141400
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141400Z-150600ZMAR2004//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.0N3
142.6E3, HAS BEEN RELOCATED 120 NM FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR
5.0N5 141.9E6, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. A RECENT
140812Z6 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY LARGE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE UNDER AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF
DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS POSSIBLE MID LEVEL ROTATION. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 1.B.(1). FROM POOR TO
FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/VOHS//

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