Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 03 Mar 2004 00:13:40 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 030614
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/9/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9  (GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/03 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4S / 63.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 /D  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 050   SE: 150   SO: 150   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/03 18 UTC: 13.8S/61.0E, MAX WIND=050KT.
24H: 2004/03/04 06 UTC: 14.5S/58.5E, MAX WIND=060KT.
36H: 2004/03/04 18 UTC: 15.1S/56.6E, MAX WIND=070KT.
48H: 2004/03/05 06 UTC: 15.6S/54.3E, MAX WIND=080KT.
60H: 2004/03/05 18 UTC: 15.9S/52.0E, MAX WIND=090KT.
72H: 2004/03/06 06 UTC: 16.4S/50.2E, MAX WIND=090KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-.
CENTRE IS NOW LOCATED UNDER DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS ORGANIZED OVER
LAST
NIGHT.
NWP MODELS, ARPEGE, ECMWF AND UK-MO ARE IN AGREEMENT, AND MAKE GAFILO
GENERALLY TRACK WESTWARDS. NOGAPS (RUN OF 200403031200) MAKES GAFILO
TRACK TOWARDS MASCARENES ISLANDS.=

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