Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 03 Feb 2004 15:11:29 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 013
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 21.7S0 47.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 47.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 22.7S1 48.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 24.0S6 49.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 25.3S0 50.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 26.6S4 51.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4  047.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45 KNOTS. TC 09S IS STEERING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AS IT ENTERS A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSITY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031800Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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