Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 04 Mar 2004 23:34:10 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 050530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/050530Z-051800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/041951ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
 (1) AT 041800Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 58.0E3, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 042100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 15P (EVAN) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4S3
120.8E1, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S9 119.4E5, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRAILIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS MOVED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST AND IS NOT WELL DEFINED. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS MARGINABLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATD NEAR 9.0S9 85.3E6,
APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER
CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 2.A.(1), PARA 2.B.(1), AND DISSIPATED
SYSTEM IN PARA 2.B.(2).
4. RELEASED BY: MAJOR GRUBER, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM:  GRUBER/MENEBROKER/ANDERSON/FUNK//

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