Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 03 Feb 2004 02:24:33 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 014
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 17.5S3 70.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 70.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 18.1S0 71.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 19.2S2 71.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 20.6S8 71.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 22.4S8 71.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 70.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 600 NM SOUTH OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS
TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE ORIENTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS,
AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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