Subject: Indian-S: Ocean Reissued/161030z-161800zmar2004//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 16 Mar 2004 04:33:28 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 161030 COR
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/161030Z-161800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/151951Z MAR 04//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/160751Z MAR 04//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT, REF B
IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 160600Z TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S WAS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SEE
REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0S7 87.0E5, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S0 85.5E8, APPROXIMATELY
700 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW
IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30
TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THIS ALERT WAS REISSUED AS A RESULT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
OUTSIDE OF ORIGINAL TCFA AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 152000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5 130.3E7
IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEE PARA2.A.(1) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPRGRADE AREA IN PARA B.1.(2) TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED MANOP TIME.
RELEASED BY: LT MOHAMMED, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ/HEILER//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.