Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 03 Feb 2004 02:45:58 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 012
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 20.8S0 45.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 45.1E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 21.3S6 45.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 22.5S9 47.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 23.5S0 48.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 24.8S4 50.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 45.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145
NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 030530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH 24 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND REINTENSIFY ON
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BY TAU 36. TC 09S IS STEERING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
REINTENSIFICATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE
MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AFTER TAU 24 WITH EGRR KEEPING THE SYSTEM
QUASISTATIONARY WHILE NCEP GFS LINKS THE SYSTEM WITH A PASSING
TROUGH AND INITIATES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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