Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2004 02:25:27 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z3 --- NEAR 15.6S2 167.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 167.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 17.3S1 167.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 19.0S0 167.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 21.4S7 168.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 24.3S9 169.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 167.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTH-WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 250530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH 36 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WESTERLIES.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0
AND 260900Z7.//

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