Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 17 Mar 2004 11:23:52 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/170752ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 170600Z4 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) WAS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 170900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.5S2 83.0E1, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2 83.0E1, APPROXI-
MATELY 1050 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION IS WEAK AND
CYCLIC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
RELEASED BY: CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/DIXON/RONSSE/ANDERSON/FUNK//

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