Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 Mar 2004 15:51:47 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/212200Z/220600ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211953ZMAR2004//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 211800Z2, TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.6N3 125.7E5, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA
AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 212100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 211800Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (GRACE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.7S7 155.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 212100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S0
151.7E4, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE
PARA 2.A.(1) FOR DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8S7
166.0E3, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8S7 169.1E7, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEAL A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.
       (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARA 2.A.(1), UPGRADED PARA
2.B.(2) TO FAIR, AND UPDATED ALL ELSE.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/WAUGAMAN/KELSEY//

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