Subject: Pacific-SW: A. Tropical Cyclone Summary: None.

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 Feb 2004 00:18:55 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 100000
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.0N3 153.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N0 150.1E7, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE AREA IS IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S2 153.9E8
HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO NEAR 13.1N5 147.1E3, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF CYCLING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYIS REVEALS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE
AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY LT MOHAMMED, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/ANDERSON/NEWTON//

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