Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 25 Mar 2004 14:39:35 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 020
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z6 --- NEAR 18.0S9 120.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 120.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 19.2S2 119.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 20.5S7 119.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 21.5S8 120.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 120.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST
AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 251730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 251800Z6
BROOME AUSTRALIA RADAR OBSEVATION. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 90
KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO MAINTAIN INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 18S INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS,
AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 AND 262100Z1.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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