Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2004 00:52:59 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 180633

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 1/11/20032004
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11

2.A POSITION 2004/03/18 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2S / 75.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A
VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/18 18 UTC: 15.9S/72.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2004/03/19 06 UTC: 15.5S/70.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
THE MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS RATHER HIGH, AND STRONG WINDS EXIST MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH.

DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INTENSIFIED (WITH A 2 DEGRES DIAMETRE
CLUSTER) DURING LAST HOURS ABOVE THE LOW WHICH IS STILL BADLY DEFINED. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTNORTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT A WEAK STAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

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