Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2004 14:47:15 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 18.5S4 115.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 115.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 19.2S2 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 20.0S2 113.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 20.6S8 112.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 21.0S3 112.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 20.5S7 110.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 115.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25, 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 08S REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALED THAT THE POSTION OF TC 08S WAS
ACTUALLY LOCATED FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST RESUTLING IN TC 08S
BEING RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 08S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE AIDS
CONSIST OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET (EGRR). THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8, 050900Z4, 051500Z1
AND 052100Z8.//

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