Subject: Indian-S: Unclas //n03145//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2004 14:36:32 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 292100
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST//SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 005
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z0 --- NEAR 16.5S2 63.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 63.1E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 17.0S8 62.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 17.5S3 61.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 18.1S0 61.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 19.0S0 60.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 63.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 291730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED AND SLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND INCREASE ITS
SPEED. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS
AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
GFS BEING BIASED WITH INTERACTION WITH THE REMINANTS OF TC 09S.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS MINUS GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z9
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 AND 302100Z6. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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