Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 07 Mar 2004 02:25:19 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z3 --- NEAR 15.1S7 49.3E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 49.3E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 16.0S7 46.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 17.4S2 45.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 19.1S1 44.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 20.9S1 44.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 48.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
275 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS AND A WEAKENING TREND.
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT EROSION OF THE SOUTH-
WESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR'S TERRAIN.
TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE LOCATED TOTHE SOUTHEAST. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TRANSITION TC 16S INTO A
MORE POLWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTENSITY FOR TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON EGRR AND NOGAPS
DUE TO BETTER INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//

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