Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 14:13:49 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 010
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 20.3S5 58.2E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 58.2E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 22.0S4 58.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 24.6S2 58.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 28.0S0 59.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 32.0S5 62.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 20.7S9 58.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT LINKS UP WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 06S WILL
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48 HOURS AND
ACCELERATE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, NCEP GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z2 AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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