Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 09 Mar 2004 08:40:38 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- NEAR 13.6S0 91.0E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 91.0E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.2S7 90.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 15.3S9 89.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 16.6S3 88.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 17.9S7 87.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 90.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
350 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
091130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA ESTIMATES OF
50 KNOTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 17S IS NOW BEGINING TO MAKE ITS
POLEWARD TURN AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS OF
THE UPPER LEVELS SHOW WEAK OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS
ALLOWING TC 17S TO INTENSIFY. THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MIDWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, TC 17S SHOULD REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND LEVEL
OFF OR EVEN WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. MOST MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AT THIS TIME, THE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES CAUSING INCREASED
VERTICAL SHEAR AND LINEAR OR EVEN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, WBAR,
EGRR, AFWA, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND
101500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  16S (GAFILO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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