Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 17 Mar 2004 15:01:21 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 172100 RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z7 --- NEAR 12.4S7 126.6E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 126.6E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 12.6S9 125.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 12.6S9 125.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 12.6S9 124.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 12.6S9 123.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.5S8 126.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 171730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. WESTERLY WINDS
TO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF TC 18S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTIBUTE TO
SLOW WESTWARD PROPGATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
BEYOND TAU 24 IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS AND EGRR
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD OF
THE DYNAMIC AIDS, THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.//

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