Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 02 Feb 2004 14:48:22 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 011
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 19.4S4 43.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 43.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 19.8S8 43.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 20.5S7 44.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 21.5S8 45.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 22.5S9 46.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 43.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS MODERATE EQUATORWARD
VENTILATION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 12 HOURS
AS IT REMAINS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM,
TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND UKMET EGRR,
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND 24 HOURS,
INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE STORM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z2 AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.

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