Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2004 06:14:07 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 121217
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 8/10/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10  (HELMA)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/12 AT 1200 UTC :
19.7S / 85.5E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/3.5 /W  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 180   SE: 180   SO: 180   NO: 180

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/13 00 UTC: 20.4S/84.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2004/03/13 12 UTC: 21.6S/83.4E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2004/03/14 00 UTC: 23.7S/82.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2004/03/14 12 UTC: 25.4S/81.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2004/03/15 00 UTC: 27.2S/80.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2004/03/15 12 UTC: 29.0S/79.0E DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+, CI=3.5-.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE CLEARLY APPEARS ON THE IMAGERY IN
THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. HELMA IS STRONGLY
NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARDS.=

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