Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/011800zmar-021800zmar2004//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 01 Mar 2004 11:25:45 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 011800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/011800ZMAR-021800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/011352ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 011200Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 21.4S7 115.6E3, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHEAST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.
        (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S9
71.5E3 IS EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH AND NOW RELOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 71.2E0,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTANT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
        (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: LT MOHAMMED, USN.
FORECAST TEAM:  MOHAMMED/DIXON/JACOBS/SCHULTZ/HEILER//

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