Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2004 14:22:05 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 13.2S6 174.1W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 174.1W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 15.0S6 173.1W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 17.0S8 171.7W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 19.5S5 169.8W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 22.1S5 167.4W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 26.9S7 161.4W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 173.8W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 041730Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127
KNOTS. A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS
REVEALS A SYMMETRICAL 10 NM DIAMETER EYE. TC 07P IS FORECASTED TO
TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ANALYSIS OF THE FORECASTED UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT OF BOTH THE UKMET AND NCEP GFS MODELS SHOWS THAT TC 07P
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS IN A
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. TC 07P WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER
24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z8, 050900Z4, 051500Z1 AND 052100Z8.//

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