Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 28 Feb 2004 02:59:11 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z6 --- NEAR 28.6S6 173.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.6S6 173.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 33.9S5 175.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 39.9S1 179.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 45.5S4 175.9W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 29.9S0 173.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77, 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z3 AND 290900Z0.//

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