Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 01 Jan 2004 20:28:09 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z2 --- NEAR 8.0S8 174.1W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.0S8 174.1W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 8.4S2 173.3W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 9.8S7 173.7W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 11.2S4 174.4W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 13.0S4 174.9W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 15.8S4 173.7W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 8.1S9 173.9W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
385 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY ORGANIZED
OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P IS
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
RECURVE TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS ARE SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS DEPICT A SHARP RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE
TC RECURVING BACK UPON ITSELF AND CROSSING OVER THE
HISTORICAL TRACK. THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS DEPICT A MORE
GRADUAL RECURVE SITUATION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1, 021500Z8, 022100Z5 AND 030300Z6.//

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