Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Mar 2004 00:23:52 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 130628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 44/9/20032004
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9  (EX-GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/13 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5S / 48.6E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/13 18 UTC: 23.6S/49.6E, MAX WIND=025KT .
24H: 2004/03/14 06 UTC: 23.6S/51.2E, MAX WIND=025KT .
36H: 2004/03/14 18 UTC: 23.8S/52.7E, MAX WIND=025KT .
48H: 2004/03/15 06 UTC: 24.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=025KT .
60H: 2004/03/15 18 UTC: 24.2S/55.5E DISSIPATING.
72H: 2004/03/16 06 UTC: 24.5S/57.0E DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTRE IS BACK OVER SEAS.
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IS WEAK TO MODERATE.=

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