Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 04 Feb 2004 02:18:41 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 016
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 18.5S4 70.4E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 70.4E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 19.1S1 70.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 20.0S2 70.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 20.9S1 70.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 21.9S2 71.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 70.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 735 NM EAST OF
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND
115 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
10S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY FAVORABLE. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS,
AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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