Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 14 Mar 2004 19:31:28 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 150200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/150200Z-150600ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150152ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY/
FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1N6
142.4E1, HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 6.7N3 140.0E5, APPROXIMATELY 200
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO REFLECT AN ELONGATED TROUGH NEAR THE SURFACE THAT IS
CONSOLIDATING AND CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH, HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS NOW DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THAT CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE REGION, INDICATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
135.2E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S0 134.2E0, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM
NORTH OF MANINGRIDA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION
WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. FURTHER BULLETINS ON THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE CARRIED ON THE ABIO (SEE REF A). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.
     (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO FAIR AND
RE-LOCATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/NOREN/ANDERSON/FUNK//

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