Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 29 Feb 2004 21:44:30 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/010400Z-011800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/010152ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 010000Z1, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 20.5S7 115.2E9, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105
KNOTS GUSTING TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 010300) FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.
        (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1
72.7E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S9 71.5E3, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 010114Z7 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE AREA EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
        (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO FAIR AND UPDATED
PARA 2.A.(1).
4. RELEASED BY: LT WINGEART, USN.
FORECAST TEAM:  WINGEART/HEATH/TINOCO//

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