Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 01 Feb 2004 02:33:56 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 008
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z7 --- NEAR 19.2S2 43.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 43.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 19.0S0 42.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 18.7S6 42.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 19.0S0 43.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 19.5S5 43.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 43.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
010530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC
09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET
EGRR, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 AND
020900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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