Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 23 Feb 2004 02:12:38 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z1 --- NEAR 14.8S3 172.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 172.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 14.8S3 170.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 15.2S8 169.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 15.8S4 167.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 16.9S6 166.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 171.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 230530Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER
TAU 12, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CAUSING TC
13P TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 AND 240900Z5.//

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