Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 13 Mar 2004 11:39:50 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN /131800Z-141800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131421ZMAR2004//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 131200Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA)
WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1S6 84.2E4, APPROXIMATELY 975 NM SOUTHWEST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 131500) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.6S1
49.2E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.8S3 50.2E7, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND HAS BECOME DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUS LLCC HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8 96.4E9,
APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED, BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. A
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A COMPACT LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
REGION WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
RELEASED BY: LT BRYANT, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/LAM/ANDERSON/FUNK//

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