Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 03 Jan 2004 20:49:12 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z4 --- NEAR 11.0S2 175.1W4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 175.1W4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 12.1S4 175.2W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 13.6S0 174.8W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 15.3S9 173.7W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 17.1S9 172.0W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 22.2S6 165.8W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.3S5 175.1W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 032330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS.
RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE
TO RESIDE IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THIS SYSTEM. TC 07P IS
FORECASTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P WILL REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN
30 TO 42 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR. TC 07P WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT LINKS UP WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCELERATES RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z3, 041500Z0, 042100Z7 AND 050300Z8.//

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