Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2004 22:11:49 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310000Z4 --- NEAR 15.0S6 96.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 96.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 16.6S3 96.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 17.5S3 95.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 18.4S3 95.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 18.8S7 94.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 96.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 302330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. TC 11S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD CAUSING TC 11S TO TRANSITION
TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE UKMET MODEL DOES NOT FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD
KEEPING TC 11S ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310000Z4 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 AND 010300Z4. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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