Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 01 Feb 2004 13:07:37 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 011800

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 27/6/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6  (ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/01 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0S / 42.5E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 180   SE: 150   SO: 500   NO: 400

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA 8.A VERTICAL
EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/02 06 UTC: 18.6S/42.9E, MAX WIND=050KT.
24H: 2004/02/02 18 UTC: 18.8S/43.5E, MAX WIND=050KT.
36H: 2004/02/03 06 UTC: 19.1S/44.1E, MAX WIND=055KT.
48H: 2004/02/03 18 UTC: 19.5S/44.7E OVERLAND.
60H: 2004/02/04 06 UTC: 20.0S/45.3E OVERLAND.
72H: 2004/02/04 18 UTC: 20.6S/46.1E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ELITA SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT GOES FAR FROM THE COAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AND TO LAND AFTER A NEW LOOP THE EASTWARD.

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