Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 01 Mar 2004 08:07:15 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z4 --- NEAR 21.4S7 115.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 115.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 22.6S0 116.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 24.0S6 116.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 26.0S8 117.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0 115.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 011130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR MARDIE, AUSTRALIA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A RAIN
BAND EXTENDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, AND
TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4, 020300Z5,
020900Z1 AND 021500Z8.//

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