Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 03 Mar 2004 12:21:08 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 031822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 7/9/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9  (GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/03 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6S / 61.3E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/3.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 100   SE: 220   SO: 220   NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/04 06 UTC: 12.1S/59.2E, MAX WIND=055KT.
24H: 2004/03/04 18 UTC: 12.0S/57.2E, MAX WIND=060KT.
36H: 2004/03/05 06 UTC: 12.3S/55.1E, MAX WIND=065KT.
48H: 2004/03/05 18 UTC: 13.0S/53.1E, MAX WIND=070KT.
60H: 2004/03/06 06 UTC: 13.8S/51.4E, MAX WIND=080KT.
72H: 2004/03/06 18 UTC: 14.7S/49.5E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION. GAFILO  IS TRACKING
ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST.=

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