Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 04 Mar 2004 18:13:40 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 050013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 12/9/20032004
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9  ( GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/05 AT 0000 UTC :
13.1S / 57.6E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.5/4.5 /D  1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 300   SE: 300   SO: 300   NO: 400
50 KT       NE: 060   SE: 060   SO: 060   NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/05 12 UTC: 13.7S/56.3E, MAX WIND=075KT.
24H: 2004/03/06 00 UTC: 14.5S/54.9E, MAX WIND=080KT.
36H: 2004/03/06 12 UTC: 15.2S/53.5E, MAX WIND=085KT.
48H: 2004/03/07 00 UTC: 16.0S/52.1E, MAX WIND=090KT.
60H: 2004/03/07 12 UTC: 16.9S/50.8E, MAX WIND=100KT.
72H: 2004/03/08 00 UTC: 17.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=105KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFY. GAFILO IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENEING AT MIDDLE RANGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD IN
MEDIUM RANGE.=

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