Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 01 Jan 2004 14:20:48 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 8.5S3 174.8W0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S3 174.8W0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 8.7S5 174.1W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 9.7S6 174.0W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 11.3S5 174.6W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 12.6S9 174.9W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.1S7 173.5W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 8.5S3 174.6W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
375 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 07P CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND RECURVE TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS
ARE SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS DEPICT A SHARP RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE TC RECURVING
BACK UPON ITSELF AND CROSSING OVER THE HISTORICAL TRACK.
THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS DEPICT A MORE GRADUAL RECURVE
SITUATION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5.//

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