Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 00:42:27 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 020600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 17/4/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4  (DARIUS)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/02 AT 0600 UTC :
18.7S / 58.4E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.5 /S  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 180   SO: 180   NO: 100
50 KT       NE: 010   SE: 040   SO: 030   NO: 010

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/01/02 18 UTC: 20.3S/58.2E, MAX WIND=045KT.
24H: 2004/01/03 06 UTC: 21.3S/57.7E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2004/01/03 18 UTC: 22.8S/57.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2004/01/04 06 UTC: 25.0S/57.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2004/01/04 18 UTC: 27.4S/58.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2004/01/05 06 UTC: 29.5S/59.8E EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5.
THE INTENSITY OF DARIUS IS STATIONARY TO LIGHTLY WEAKENING DU TO THE
VERTICAL WIND SHAER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASED AS LONG AS THE
SYSTEM
TRACK SOUTHWARD. ONCE SHEARED, THE CENTRE SHOULD UNDERGOES THE THE
LOW
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE END OF PERIOD,
DARIUS SHOULD EVAC
UATE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.=

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