Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 01 Feb 2004 08:18:54 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 008
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z4 --- NEAR 18.8S7 95.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 95.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 19.7S7 94.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 20.8S0 93.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 21.9S2 92.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 94.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011130Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS,
GFDN, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z5 AND 021500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S
(FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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