Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 28 Feb 2004 09:16:23 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 19.3S3 117.0E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 117.0E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 19.6S6 115.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 20.5S7 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 21.5S8 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 23.1S6 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 27.0S9 119.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 116.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES A BANDING EYE. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TS 14S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
MID-PERIOD AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3,
290300Z4, 290900Z0 AND 291500Z7.//

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