Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 2004 12:38:12 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 111841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/10/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10  (HELMA EX-NICKY)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/11 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2S / 87.4E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 180   SE: 250   SO: 200   NO: 180
50 KT       NE: 020   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/12 06 UTC: 20.4S/86.3E, MAX WIND=055KT.
24H: 2004/03/12 18 UTC: 21.9S/85.3E, MAX WIND=050KT.
36H: 2004/03/13 06 UTC: 23.2S/84.4E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2004/03/13 18 UTC: 24.4S/83.7E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2004/03/14 06 UTC: 26.0S/82.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2004/03/14 18 UTC: 27.5S/81.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CIMSS DATA SHOW AN IMPORTANT VERTICAL NORTHNORTHWEST SHEARING SOUTH
OF
20S.=

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