Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 15:24:18 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 8.3S1 173.5W6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.3S1 173.5W6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 9.1S0 173.5W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 10.3S4 173.7W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 11.8S0 173.8W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 13.3S7 173.2W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 17.0S8 170.1W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 8.5S3 173.5W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS SUPPORTING CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WITH
STEADY INTENSIFICATION. STRONG EQUATORWARD WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
OF TC 07P ARE ALSO AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT. TC 07P IS BEGINNING TO
TRANSISITION TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS A HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST.
TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARDS AMERICA
SAMOA AND INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH IN A CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, WBAR, NCEP GFS AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS
HAVE MERGED INTO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6,
030900Z2, 031500Z9 AND 032100Z6.//

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