Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 21:02:54 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z3 --- NEAR 16.4S1 117.6E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 117.6E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 16.6S3 116.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 17.0S8 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 17.5S3 113.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 18.0S9 111.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 18.9S8 109.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 117.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 022330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN
TRANSITION TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN,
UKMET (EGRR), AND WBAR. THE WBAR SOLUTION IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER
RELATIVE TO THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS, RECURVING TC 08S TOWARDS THE
EQUATOR. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS
WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2, 031500Z9, 032100Z6 AND 040300Z7.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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