Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2004 02:16:18 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- NEAR 18.9S8 43.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 43.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 19.1S1 43.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 19.6S6 44.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 20.3S5 44.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 21.3S6 44.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 43.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
205 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 270429Z4 SSM/I
PASS REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 09S IS CURRENTLY IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 09S WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MORONDAVA, MADAGASCAR. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP AVIATION AND UKMET
EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE NOGAPS
DOES NOT INITIALIZE ON THE SYSTEM VERY WELL. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2
AND 280900Z9.//

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