Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 08 Mar 2004 02:11:09 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 18.1S0 44.2E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 44.2E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 19.4S4 43.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 20.8S0 43.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 22.2S6 44.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 24.0S6 46.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 43.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
180 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 77 KNOTS. TC 16S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE BACK OVER MADAGASCAR.
TC 16S IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AGAIN DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
EGRR, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//

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