Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 08 Mar 2004 12:14:36 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 081817
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 27/9/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9  (GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/08 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 42.8E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 450   SE: 250   SO: 500   NO: 500

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/09 06 UTC: 20.2S/41.9E, MAX WIND=050KT.
24H: 2004/03/09 18 UTC: 22.2S/42.2E, MAX WIND=055KT.
36H: 2004/03/10 06 UTC: 23.8S/43.4E, MAX WIND=065KT.
48H: 2004/03/10 18 UTC: 24.7S/45.2E OVERLAND.
60H: 2004/03/11 06 UTC: 25.2S/47.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.
72H: 2004/03/11 18 UTC: 25.5S/49.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0+. GOOD POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED
 IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR. GAFILO SHOULD TRACK MORE POLEWARDS.GAFILO IS
FORECASTED TO LAND A SECOND TIME OVER THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, AND
CROSS
THE ISLAND.=

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