Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 03:03:25 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 18.7S6 58.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 58.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 20.4S6 58.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 22.4S8 57.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 24.6S2 58.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 27.4S3 59.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 058.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
125 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 020530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS AND ENTERS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF UKMET
(EGRR), GFDN, NCEP GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 AND
030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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