Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 23 Mar 2004 11:52:07 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 231800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN CORRECTED/231800Z-241800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230753ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZMAR2004//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 230600Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.2S7 120.6E9, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHWEST OF
YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 105 GUSTING TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 230900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 231200Z8 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S2 98.5E2, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS
IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 231500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S6
102.9E2 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
1.A.(2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 6.7S3 56.7E8,
APPROXIMATELY 995 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OF THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (3). NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED COORDINATES IN PARAGRAPH
2.B.(2).
RELEASED BY: MAJ GRUBER, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/ARENDS/PITTS/HEATH/VOHS//

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