Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Mar 2004 00:51:54 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 100028

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 32/9/20032004
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9  (EX-GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/10 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7S / 43.9E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT   NE:       SE:       SO: 500   NO: 500

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A
VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/10 12 UTC: 22.1S/44.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2004/03/11 00 UTC: 22.7S/44.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2004/03/11 12 UTC: 23.2S/44.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2004/03/12 00 UTC: 23.7S/45.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2004/03/12 12 UTC: 24.2S/46.1E OVERLAND.
72H: 2004/03/13 00 UTC: 24.7S/47.0E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-GAFILO HAS MADE LANDFALL, LIKELY NORTH OF MOROMBE AT ABOUT 2000Z. MODELS
AGREE TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM QUASISTATIONARY BETWEEN 10/06UTC AND 11/12 UTC,
BUT IN DIFFERENT PLACES (MOZ CHANNEL FOR UK-MO, SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR FOR
ECMWF, AND SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR FOR ARPEGE).

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