Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 31 Jan 2004 08:09:20 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311200Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 96.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 96.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 17.7S5 95.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 18.2S1 94.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 19.0S0 93.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 20.0S2 92.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311130Z9
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS
INCREASING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD FOR 12 HOURS AND THEN TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. TC 11S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, JGSM, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR IS THE OUTLIER, KEEPING THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST STRONGER, RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH
LESS EMPHASIS ON EGRR.//

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