Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 27 Mar 2004 08:12:59 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z2 --- NEAR 19.1S1 90.6E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 90.6E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 20.4S6 89.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 21.6S9 89.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 23.1S6 89.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 24.8S4 90.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 90.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
540 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 24, TC 20S WILL PASS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN
TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHILE INTERACTING WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 20S WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO A VERY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, TLAPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS, AFWA, AND EGRR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z2 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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