Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 31 Jan 2004 20:59:59 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 007
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z1 --- NEAR 17.7S5 95.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 95.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 18.6S5 95.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 19.7S7 94.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 20.7S9 93.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 21.8S1 92.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 95.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
312330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. 010001Z2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHWARD. MORE RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF COLD DRY AIR WEST
OF THE FORECAST TRACK THAT WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 11S IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD AND TO STEER THE SYSTEM INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF CONFLUENT SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 AND 020300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA)
AND 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS31/WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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