Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 05 Jan 2004 08:51:35 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z8 --- NEAR 15.5S1 172.9W9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 172.9W9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 17.4S2 171.6W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 20.1S3 169.4W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 23.0S5 167.2W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 26.0S8 164.6W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 31.8S2 158.8W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 172.6W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC
07P HAS PEAKED AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN,
AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051200Z8 IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9,
060900Z5, AND 061500Z2.//

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