Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 24 Mar 2004 11:36:35 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/241800Z/251800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240752ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZMAR2004//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241353ZMAR2004//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 240600Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 15.8S4 121.7E1, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRANSITIONED TO A MORE POLEWARD
TRAJECTORY, MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80
GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 240900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 241200Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.6S1 95.3E7, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS
IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 55 GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 241500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) AT 241200Z9 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S WAS LOCATED NEAR
8.7S5 56.1E2, APPROXIMATELY 835 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAD BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 20 GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTXS33 PGTW 241500)
FOR FINAL WARNING. SEE PARA 2.B(1) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
AREA.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 8.7S5 56.1S2, APPROX-
IMATELY 800 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS SUBSIDED
IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE
THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE NEAR TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
RELEASED BY: LCDR ARENDS, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: ARENDS/KENDALL/WAUGAMAN/KELSEY

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