Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 05 Mar 2004 12:14:51 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 051816
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 15/9/20032004
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9  (GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/05 AT 1800 UTC :
14.4S / 55.1E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 6.0/6.0 /D  1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 300   SE: 500   SO: 500   NO: 300
50 KT       NE: 100   SE: 150   SO: 150   NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/06 06 UTC: 15.7S/53.5E, MAX WIND=100KT.
24H: 2004/03/06 18 UTC: 16.5S/52.1E, MAX WIND=110KT.
36H: 2004/03/07 06 UTC: 17.5S/50.7E, MAX WIND=115KT.
48H: 2004/03/07 18 UTC: 18.5S/49.0E OVERLAND.
60H: 2004/03/08 06 UTC: 19.5S/47.2E OVERLAND.
72H: 2004/03/08 18 UTC: 21.3S/46.0E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0-.
WITH A TROUGH ARRIVING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, GAFILO SHOULD MAINTAIN
ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.=

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