Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2004 00:23:48 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 120619

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 7/10/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10  (HELMA EX-NICKY)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/12 AT 0600 UTC :
19.4S / 85.8E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/4.0 /S  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 200   SE: 200   SO: 200   NO: 200
50 KT       NE: 020   SE: 020   SO: 020   NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A
VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/12 18 UTC: 20.1S/84.9E, MAX WIND=050KT.
24H: 2004/03/13 06 UTC: 21.3S/83.6E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2004/03/13 18 UTC: 23.0S/82.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2004/03/14 06 UTC: 25.0S/81.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2004/03/14 18 UTC: 26.9S/80.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2004/03/15 06 UTC: 29.2S/80.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5, CI=4.0-.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE APPEARS ON THE LAST SAT IMAGERY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CONVECTION. HELMA IS NORTHWESTERLY SHEARED. THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARDS.

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