Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 23 Jan 2004 11:47:25 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZJAN2004//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8
54.0E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S8 49.3E6, ON THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. LATEST MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO DISCERNABLE CENTRAL CIRCULATION.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ALONG THE MADAGASCAR COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW BUT SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATOR-
WARD OF THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/KLINZMANN/VOHS//

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