Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/291800zfeb-011800zmar2004//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 29 Feb 2004 11:57:02 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 291800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/291800ZFEB-011800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/291352ZFEB2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 291200Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.8S8 115.6E3, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 135 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 291500) FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.
        (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.7S1 72.7E6
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES INDICATE FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, BUT MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO MARGINAL SHEAR
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
        (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: MAJOR GRUBER, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM:  GRUBER/HEATH/SPANSKI//

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