Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 24 Mar 2004 19:56:00 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z7 --- NEAR 15.6S2 94.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 94.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 16.3S0 93.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 16.9S6 92.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 17.3S1 90.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 18.0S9 88.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 93.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES A BANDING EYE AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 24 THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK IN AND TRACK TC 20S SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR, GFDN AND EGRR ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 AND 260300Z1.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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