Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 Mar 2004 15:10:26 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (GRACE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- NEAR 19.7S7 155.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 155.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 22.0S4 157.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 24.1S7 159.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 25.5S2 161.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 26.0S8 163.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 155.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (GRACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
500 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND 45 KNOTS
AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.//

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