Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 05 Mar 2004 02:48:02 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 13.5S9 56.7E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 56.7E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 14.2S7 55.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 14.9S4 53.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 15.7S3 51.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 16.7S4 50.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 56.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BANDING EYE HAS ONCE
AGAIN CLOSED OFF INTO A 15 NM EYE. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND
THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY AS MOST OF THE MODELS PREDICT DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AFWA, WBAR,
AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5.//

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