Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 29 Feb 2004 14:20:42 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z0 --- NEAR 20.1S3 115.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 115.1E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 21.3S6 115.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 22.7S1 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 24.6S2 116.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 27.1S0 118.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 115.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 14S IS MAKING ITS TURN POLEWARD
TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. A 291800Z0 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT
BARROW ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 37 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 47 KNOTS AND A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 995.2 MB AND FALLING.
TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 14S IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST AFTER THE 12 HOUR TAU AND
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4, 010900Z0, 011500Z7 AND
012100Z4.//

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