Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 26 Feb 2004 20:14:06 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 270230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/270230Z-271800ZFEB2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETTOCEN PEARL HARBOR/270151ZFEB2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.2S5 79.2E8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0 82.4E4, APPROXIMATELY
665 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF TROUGHING EVIDENT ON QUICKSCAT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.5S5 120.3E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3S3 120.8E1, APPROXIMATELY
140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. EARLY MULTI-
SPECTRAL AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OFF LAND AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC HAS INCREASED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
270200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
        (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(2). TO GOOD.
4. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: KENDALL/LAM/VOHS//

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