Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 08 Mar 2004 20:58:47 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- NEAR 12.8S1 90.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 90.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 13.3S7 89.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.0S5 89.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 15.1S7 87.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 16.4S1 86.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 90.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. TC 17S IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EQUATORWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 17S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BETTER DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WILL INCREASE INTENSITY RATES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 09000Z9 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND
100300Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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