Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 28 Feb 2004 14:41:52 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z9 --- NEAR 34.4S1 176.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 38 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 34.4S1 176.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 41.0S5 177.9W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 39 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 48.0S2 173.2W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 36.0S9 178.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS ACCELERATED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 38 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 13P IS WEAKENING
RAPIDLY WITH A RECENT 281858Z4 SSMI PASS SHOWING THAT THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF A NOW
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BY APPROXIMATELY
TWO DEGREES. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 290900Z0.//

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