Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 28 Jan 2004 19:02:16 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 290000

 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

 0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 12/6/20032004
 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 6  (EX-ELITA)

 2.A POSITION 2004/01/29 AT 0000 UTC :
 WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1S / 47.2E
 (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
 EAST)

 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /W
 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 987 HPA
 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
 30 KT       NE: 100   SE: 050   SO: 050   NO: 300

 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

 1.B FORECASTS:
 12H: 2004/01/29 12 UTC: 18.2S/48.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
 24H: 2004/01/30 00 UTC: 19.3S/49.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
 36H: 2004/01/30 12 UTC: 19.7S/49.7E, MAX WIND=025KT.
 48H: 2004/01/31 00 UTC: 20.1S/49.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.
 60H: 2004/01/31 12 UTC: 20.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.
 72H: 2004/02/01 00 UTC: 20.9S/49.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.

 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
 THE SYSTEM IS WEAKNENING RAPIDLY OVER LAND AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD. IT
 HAS MADE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF MAJENGA AT AROUND 14 H UTC.
 DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS WAEKENING, BUT STILL EXISTS NEAR THE CENTRE
 AND LOCALLY FAR FROM THGE CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
 THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION SHOULD TEMPORALLY RE-INTENSIFY OVER
 SEAS AND THEN CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE BUILDING HIGH IN THE SOUTH.

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