Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 23 Feb 2004 15:35:32 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z4 --- NEAR 13.7S1 170.2E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 170.2E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 13.8S2 168.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 14.5S0 168.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 15.7S3 167.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 17.2S0 166.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 169.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
270 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 75 KNOTS. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT TC 13P MORE POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY MORE THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A STRONG CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z5 AND 242100Z9.//

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