Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 14:43:40 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 16.4S1 118.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 118.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 16.7S4 117.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 17.1S9 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 17.6S4 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 18.1S0 113.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 18.9S8 110.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 118.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN MORE POLEWARD LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 08S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP
GFS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), WBAR AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. THE WBAR
SOLUTION HAS BECOME A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER RECURVING TC 08S TOWARDS THE
EQUATOR. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH
LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(DARIUS) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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