Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2004 20:35:32 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z3 --- NEAR 10.9S0 94.5E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 94.5E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 12.3S6 94.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 13.7S1 94.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 15.0S6 93.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 16.2S9 93.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 11.3S5 94.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
165 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
TC 11S IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 AND 310300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE
HOURLY UPDATES.//

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