Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2004 08:37:35 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z7 --- NEAR 12.3S6 174.3W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 174.3W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 13.8S2 173.6W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 15.7S3 172.4W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 17.9S7 170.6W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 20.1S3 169.0W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 25.7S4 161.8W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0  174.1W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. A 040842Z8 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS
A 15 NM EYE. TC 07P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
ACCELERATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
24 TO 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z7 IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7, 050300Z8,
050900Z4, AND 051500Z1.//

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