Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 02 Mar 2004 00:21:43 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 020622
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 1/9/20032004
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2004/03/02 AT 0600 UTC :
12.9S / 70.8E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/02 18 UTC: 13.2S/68.8E, MAX WIND=035KT .
24H: 2004/03/03 06 UTC: 13.7S/66.6E, MAX WIND=040KT .
36H: 2004/03/03 18 UTC: 14.0S/64.3E, MAX WIND=050KT .
48H: 2004/03/04 06 UTC: 14.3S/62.0E, MAX WIND=060KT .
60H: 2004/03/04 18 UTC: 14.8S/59.8E, MAX WIND=070KT .
72H: 2004/03/05 06 UTC: 15.3S/57.5E, MAX WIND=080KT .

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE CENTRE FOLLOWED IS EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN
EDGE
OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE DIFFLUENCE IS GOOD, AND THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD
POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION.=

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