Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 01 Feb 2004 06:12:54 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 011200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 26/6/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6  (ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/01 AT 1200 UTC :
18.6S / 42.4E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 100   SO: 300   NO: 300

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/02 00 UTC: 17.9S/42.4E, MAX WIND=040KT .
24H: 2004/02/02 12 UTC: 17.4S/43.0E, MAX WIND=045KT .
36H: 2004/02/03 00 UTC: 18.0S/43.8E, MAX WIND=050KT .
48H: 2004/02/03 12 UTC: 18.5S/44.5E OVERLAND.
60H: 2004/02/04 00 UTC: 19.2S/45.3E OVERLAND.
72H: 2004/02/04 12 UTC: 20.0S/46.4E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ELITA SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT GOES FAR FROM THE COAST. IT IS EXPECTED
TO
INTENSIFY AND TO LAND AFTER A NEW LOOP THE EASTWARD.=

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