Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 16 Mar 2004 20:44:20 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 170300 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED AND RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z8 --- NEAR 12.0S3 127.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 127.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 12.4S7 126.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 12.5S8 125.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 12.3S6 124.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 12.1S4 122.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 127.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 162330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS EXPOSED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM FURTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. THIS WARNING IS AMENDED TO CORRECT
FOR TRACK INITIALIZATION. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS
AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.//

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