Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 11 Mar 2004 08:17:49 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 111500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 18.5S4 87.5E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 87.5E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 20.2S4 85.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 22.0S4 84.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 24.4S0 84.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 27.0S9 84.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 87.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
660 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 111130Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BEGINS TRANSITION INTO A
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, WBAR, TLAPS, TCLAPS, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND
121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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