Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 01 Feb 2004 12:45:15 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 011800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 21/7/20032004
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7  (FRANK)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/01 AT 1800 UTC :
16.9S / 65.0E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.5/5.5 /D  1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 500   SE: 500   SO: 200   NO: 500
50 KT       NE: 150   SE: 070   SO: 050   NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/02 06 UTC: 17.7S/66.3E, MAX WIND=100KT.
24H: 2004/02/02 18 UTC: 18.6S/67.6E, MAX WIND=105KT.
36H: 2004/02/03 06 UTC: 19.4S/68.9E, MAX WIND=100KT.
48H: 2004/02/03 18 UTC: 20.3S/69.9E, MAX WIND=090KT.
60H: 2004/02/04 06 UTC: 21.3S/70.4E, MAX WIND=085KT.
72H: 2004/02/04 18 UTC: 22.3S/71.0E, MAX WIND=080KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5+
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER WARMER WATERS (WHERE IT HASN'T PASSED
BEFORE) IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, GOOD
LOW
LEVEL INFLOW AND POOR SHEARING), FRANK HAS SUDENLY RE-INTENSIFIED
DURING
LAST HOURS WITH A RATHER CLEAR EYE AND A COOLER DEEP CONVECTION.=

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