Subject: Indian-N: Warning For Metarea Viii (s)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2004 00:10:51 -0600

WTIO20 FMEE 180617
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/03/2004
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY  18/03/2004 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 1004 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2S / 75.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST-NORTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WHEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY
IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS MAINLY IN
THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, REACHING LOCALLY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2004/03/18 AT 18 UTC:
15.9S / 72.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.
24H, VALID 2004/03/19 AT 06 UTC:
15.5S / 70.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS RATHER HIGH, AND STRONG WINDS EXIST
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH
THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH.

DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INTENSIFIED DURING LAST HOURS ABOVE THE
LOW
WHICH IS STILL BADLY DEFINED. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
WESTNORTHWESTWARD
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT A WEAK STAGE DURING
THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT THIS STAGE, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=

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