Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 01 Jan 2004 03:02:24 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z7 --- NEAR 9.5S4 175.4W7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S4 175.4W7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 8.9S7 174.4W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 9.3S2 173.2W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 10.4S5 172.7W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 12.6S9 172.6W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 15.1S7 172.8W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 09.3S2 175.1W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
300 NM NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 07P HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD, EMBEDDED IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, TC 07P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7, 012100Z4, 020300Z5 AND 020900Z1.//

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