Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 01 Feb 2004 02:15:25 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 010
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z7 --- NEAR 16.0S7 62.9E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 62.9E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 16.7S4 64.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 17.3S1 66.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 18.2S1 68.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 19.3S3 70.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 63.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 760 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. TC 10S WILL
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
OUTFLOW WEAKENS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
WBAI, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z4 AND 020900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  09S (ELITA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  11S
(LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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