Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 05 Mar 2004 19:51:47 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 060200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/060200Z-061800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951Z MAR 04//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 051800Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8 55.2E2, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH OF
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 052100)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 15P (EVAN) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.6S5 118.5E5, ARE NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4 118.5E5, APPROXIMATELY
110 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED AND
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE AREA IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 2.A.(1) AND DOWNGRADED
SYSTEM IN PARA 2.B.(1) FROM FAIR TO POOR.
4. RELEASED BY: LT MOHAMMED, USN.
FORECAST TEAM:  MOHAMMED/DIXON/JACOBS/TINOCO//

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