Subject: Indian-N: Ocean/101800z-111800zmar2004//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Mar 2004 11:13:21 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 101800
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100751ZMAR2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101351ZMAR2004//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
 (1) AT 100600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO) WAS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
        (2) AT 101200Z4, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY) WAS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 101500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 15P HAS DEVELOPED A SUSTAINED
AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12.3S6 102.6E9, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES AN MODERATELY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES.
RELEASED BY: LT MOHAMMED, USN.
FORECAST TEAM:  MOHAMMED/DIXON/JACOBS/SPANSKI//

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