Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2004 08:29:29 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z6 --- NEAR 12.1S4 95.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 95.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 13.4S8 96.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 14.8S3 95.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 15.9S5 95.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 17.0S8 94.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 95.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
70 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND 45
KNOTS. RECENT MULTSPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN RECURVE TO A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 11S IS APPROACHING A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A WESTWARD
STEERING INFLUENCE TOWARDS THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WEAK
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET
EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 310300Z7 AND 311500Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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