Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 01 Feb 2004 15:33:43 -0600

WTXS33 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNING NR 009
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 19.3S3 94.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 94.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 20.0S2 94.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 94.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011503Z0 SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OF TC 11S IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. TC 11S HAS TRACKED INTO AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF CONFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 21 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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