Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 Feb 2004 06:09:49 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 101218
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 62/6/20032004
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6  (EX-ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/10 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0S / 58.0E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 150   SE: 300   SO: 600   NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/11 00 UTC: 26.4S/56.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2004/02/11 12 UTC: 26.7S/54.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2004/02/12 00 UTC: 27.2S/52.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2004/02/12 12 UTC: 28.4S/50.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2004/02/13 00 UTC: 30.5S/49.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2004/02/13 12 UTC: 33.7S/50.0E DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
MODELS (ECMWF, UK-MO AND ARP/T) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD
TRACK WESTWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH,
AND THEN TRACK POLEWARDS AS THE THALWEG SHIFTS, OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
60
OURS.=

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