Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2004 11:04:50 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZJAN2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300752ZJAN2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301353ZJAN2004//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 300600Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S0 62.1E9, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS,
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 300900) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
      (2) AT 301200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1S4 95.7E1, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW 301500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S (ELITA), LAST WARNED ON 290000Z1,
ARE LOCATED NEAR 21.5S8 49.2E5, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM OFF THE EASTERN
COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR, AND HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK, SCATTERED CONVECTION. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REGION REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOVEMENT, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: MAJOR GRUBER, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/TINOCO//

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