Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2004 21:00:32 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z5 --- NEAR 13.8S2 174.2W4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 174.2W4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 15.3S9 173.5W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 17.1S9 172.3W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 19.5S5 170.1W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 22.4S8 167.4W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 27.9S8 160.0W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 174.0W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. A
RECENT MULTISPECTRAL PASS REVEALS A SYMMETRICAL 15 NM DIAMETER EYE.
ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED
DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. BOTH THE UKMET (EGGR) AND NCEP GFS MODELS
FORECAST THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
6 TO 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, TC 07P STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY
FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER ONE HALF ON THE DVORAK SCALE. TC 07P WILL REACH
PEAK INTENSITY IN 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 07P
IS FORECASTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48 HOURS. TC 07P SHOULD COMPLETE
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4, 051500Z1,
052100Z8 AND 060300Z9.//

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