Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Mar 2004 15:16:37 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (GRACE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z3 --- NEAR 21.6S9 158.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 158.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 22.9S3 159.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 158.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (GRACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
A 221530Z3 AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED 1 DEGREE NORTH OF RAPIDLY
DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), TCLAPS, AVN, WBAI AND
TLAPS MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 18
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

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