Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 16 Mar 2004 16:09:41 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ//TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- NEAR 12.3S6 126.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 126.9E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 12.6S9 126.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 12.9S2 125.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 13.0S4 124.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 12.9S2 122.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 126.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 161730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES 35 AND 45 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS BUT IS STRONGEST NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, TLAPS, TCLAPS AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.//

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