Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 28 Jan 2004 08:53:20 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 15.5S1 45.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 45.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 16.4S1 46.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 17.9S7 47.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 19.4S4 48.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 45.9E8.
TC 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TC 09S IS
NOW MAKING LANDFALL JUST WEST OF MAHAJANGA, MADAGASCAR. TC 09S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD AND REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, WBAI, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 AND 291500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.