Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 31 Jan 2004 14:37:30 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z3 --- NEAR 15.7S3 62.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 62.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 16.5S2 62.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 17.3S1 63.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 18.1S0 65.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 19.1S1 67.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 62.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. THE LATEST ANALYSIS
OF ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE 15 NM DIAMETER IRREGULAR
EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND HAS WARMED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE.
TC 10S WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE OUTFLOW WEAKENS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAI, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 AND 012100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S
(LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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