Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 31 Jan 2004 06:36:13 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 311200

 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

 0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 16/7/20032004
 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7  (FRANK)

 2.A POSITION 2004/01/31 AT 1200 UTC :
 15.5S / 61.9E
 (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
 EAST)

 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.0/5.5 PLUS /W  1.0/18 H
 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 940 HPA
 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
 30 KT       NE: 180   SE: 230   SO: 180   NO: 230
 50 KT       NE: 090   SE: 090   SO: 090   NO: 090

 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

 1.B FORECASTS:
 12H: 2004/02/01 00 UTC: 16.1S/62.5E, MAX WIND=090KT.
 24H: 2004/02/01 12 UTC: 17.0S/63.4E, MAX WIND=100KT.
 36H: 2004/02/02 00 UTC: 18.0S/64.6E, MAX WIND=105KT.
 48H: 2004/02/02 12 UTC: 19.0S/66.2E, MAX WIND=095KT.
 60H: 2004/02/03 00 UTC: 19.3S/68.2E, MAX WIND=090KT.
 72H: 2004/02/03 12 UTC: 19.8S/70.3E, MAX WIND=080KT.

 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
 THE SYSTEM HAS LIGHTLY WEAKENED DUE TO THE COOLER SEAS (DUE TO ITS ALMOST
 -STATIONNARITY AT THIS PLACE SINCE MORE THAN 24 HOURS).
 IT SEEMS TO HAVE STARTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. DURING NEXT DAYS
 IT SHOULD TEMPORARILY AND SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACK SOUTHEASWARD.

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