Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 29 Feb 2004 20:22:52 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z1 --- NEAR 20.5S7 115.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 115.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 21.6S9 115.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 22.9S3 116.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 24.8S4 117.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 115.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 292330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT TC 14S IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF BARROW
ISLAND AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. A 010100Z2 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION
AT VARANUS ISLAND NEAR 20.65S3 115.6E3 REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 63 KNOTS. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS, WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
OVER LAND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP
GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0,
011500Z7, 012100Z4 AND 020300Z5.//

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