Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2004 23:16:02 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 280500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 280451ZJAN2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 6.0S6 88.8E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280430Z7 INDICATES THAT
A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S9 88.8E4. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NEAR 5.4S9 88.8E4,
HAS BEEN RELOCATED EAST NEAR 6.0S6 89.5E2, APPROXIMATELY 990NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS AT 280015Z6
INDICATES THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND IS NOW CO-LOCATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS AND BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED, YET REMAINS CYCLIC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. DUE TO
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290500Z6.
//

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