Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 29 Feb 2004 08:10:33 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z4 --- NEAR 19.8S8 115.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 115.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 20.8S0 115.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 22.2S6 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 23.8S3 116.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 26.1S9 118.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 115.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. A 291102Z5 SSM/I
PASS DEPICTS A 9 NM EYE. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO ATTAIN PEAK
INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
OVER LAND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR,
NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z4, 010300Z4, 010900Z0 AND 011500Z7.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.