Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 01 Jan 2004 06:52:21 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 011200
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 14/4/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4  (DARIUS)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/01 AT 1200 UTC :
17.2S / 58.6E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/4.0 /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 180   SE: 250   SO: 200   NO: 100
50 KT       NE: 060   SE: 070   SO: 060   NO: 010

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/01/02 00 UTC: 18.5S/58.3E, MAX WIND=055KT.
24H: 2004/01/02 12 UTC: 20.1S/58.0E, MAX WIND=050KT.
36H: 2004/01/03 00 UTC: 21.8S/57.1E, MAX WIND=050KT.
48H: 2004/01/03 12 UTC: 23.4S/56.2E, MAX WIND=040KT.
60H: 2004/01/04 00 UTC: 25.6S/56.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.
72H: 2004/01/04 12 UTC: 28.0S/57.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND
SHEAR, WHICH SHOUKD LIMIT ITS DEVELOPPMENT.
ACCORDING TO THE MOST OF THE NWP, DARIUS SHOULD TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
 PASSING IN THE EAST OF MAURICE ISLAND. THEN AT THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP
TROUGH, SOUTHWARDS.=

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