Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 01 Mar 2004 14:25:56 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 21.7S0 115.8E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 115.8E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 22.6S0 116.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 24.0S6 116.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
TC 14S HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR MARDIE, AUSTRALIA. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 14S HAS DIMINISHED AND THE
SYSTEM IS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGRR, NCEP GFS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
NEXT WARNING AT 020300Z5.

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