Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Mar 2004 03:05:52 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z8 --- NEAR 13.2S6 124.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 124.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 13.6S0 123.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 14.1S6 122.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 14.9S4 121.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 15.5S1 120.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 124.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
520 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 200530Z0 ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, TLAPS, TCLAPS AND
EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND
210900Z2.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.