Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 01 Feb 2004 15:04:10 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 009
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 18.9S8 42.6E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S8 42.6E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 19.1S1 42.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 19.5S5 42.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 20.0S2 43.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 20.6S8 44.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 42.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAVORABLE VENTILATION IN
THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING ENVIRONMENT
FOR THIS SYSTEM MID-WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING TC 09S
TO TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR AFTER 24 TO 36
HOURS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S
(FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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