Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 07 Mar 2004 19:52:10 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 080130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/080100Z-081800ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
 (1) AT 071800Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO) WAS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 15P (EVAN) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.0S0 115.6E3, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY. RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9S3
89.2E9, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4 89.5E2, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT MICROWAVE REVEALS A
POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC), ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION CO-LOCATED WITH THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 2.B.2 TO FAIR AND
UPDATE ALL OTHER AREAS.
RELEASED BY: LT MOHAMMED, USN.
FORECAST TEAM:  MOHAMMED/DIXON/JACOBS/SCHULTZ/HEILER//

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