Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 26 Mar 2004 15:00:54 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 262100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 022A AMENDED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 120.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 120.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 20.2S4 120.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 21.1S4 120.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 22.2S6 120.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 120.0E3.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED BASED ON A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL MUCH
SOONER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 18S
IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED DUE SOUTH AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 261720Z8 BROOME RADAR IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK DUE SOUTH BY A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. A 261756Z7 MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15 NM
DIAMETER EYE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF THE
COMMUNITY OF PARDOO AT APPROXIMATELY 270200Z1 AND WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND 272100Z2.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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