Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 04 Feb 2004 15:47:41 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 017
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 19.2S2 69.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 69.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 19.8S8 70.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 20.7S9 70.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 21.9S2 71.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 23.3S8 72.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 69.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED 710 NM EAST OF
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102
AND 115 KNOTS. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY OR WEAKEN
IN INTENSITY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WEAKENS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND
UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  09S (ELITA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.