Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 06 Mar 2004 12:11:07 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 061813
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 19/9/20032004
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9  (GAFILO)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/06 AT 1800 UTC :
15.0S / 51.5E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 7.0/7.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 895 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 125 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 600   SE: 550   SO: 500   NO: 600
50 KT       NE: 200   SE: 200   SO: 180   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/07 06 UTC: 15.4S/49.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2004/03/07 18 UTC: 16.6S/48.0E OVERLAND.
36H: 2004/03/08 06 UTC: 18.0S/46.6E OVERLAND.
48H: 2004/03/08 18 UTC: 20.0S/45.2E OVERLAND.
60H: 2004/03/09 06 UTC: 22.0S/45.2E OVERLAND.
72H: 2004/03/09 18 UTC: 24.0S/46.2E OVERLAND.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=7.0+.
THE EYE REMAINS CIRCULAR AND WELL DEFINED, WITH A DIAMETER OF 16 NM.
THE CENTRE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN VICINITY OF ANTALAHA, FOR THE END
OF
NEXT NIGHT.
DURING THE EYE CYCLE, AN EXTERNAL RING HAS FORMED (SSMI DATA)
ANNOUNCING
A WEAK DIMINUTION OF STRONGER WINDS.=

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