Subject: Indian-N: Gale Warning For Metarea Vii

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 08 Mar 2004 06:35:11 -0600

WTIO24 FMEE 081224
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/03/2004 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY    08/03/2004 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GAFILO) 988 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 43.1E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP
TO 500 NM FROM THE CENTRE  IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND HIGH SEAS EXIST ALONG WESTERN MALAGASY
COASTS, BETWEEN 13S AND 18S, LOCALLY REACHING STORM FORCE WINDS 45/50 KT
BETWEEN 13S AND 16S.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXIST IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BETWEEN 12S AND 20S.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2004/03/09 AT 00 UTC:
20.3S / 42.4E, MAX WIND = 65 KT.
24H, VALID 2004/03/09 AT 12 UTC:
21.9S / 43.3E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, OVERLAND.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, DUE TO
THE GRADIENT EFFECT BETWEEN THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AND THE MONSOON
FLOW. THE MOST ACTIVE CLUSTERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO THIS CONFLUENCE BETWEEN
THESE TWO FLOWS.
GAFILO HAS COME BACK TO SEA, IN THE SOUTH OF THE TOWN MAINTIRANO. IT
SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS, BEFORE LANDING IN THE SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

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