Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 02 Mar 2004 06:27:07 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 021227
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 2/9/20032004
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2004/03/02 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 69.9E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/03 00 UTC: 14.5S/67.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2004/03/03 12 UTC: 15.2S/65.5E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2004/03/04 00 UTC: 15.6S/63.4E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2004/03/04 12 UTC: 16.2S/61.4E, MAX WIND=050KT.
60H: 2004/03/05 00 UTC: 16.5S/59.4E, MAX WIND=060KT.
72H: 2004/03/05 12 UTC: 17.0S/57.3E, MAX WIND=070KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
STATIONNARY INTENSITY.
THE FOLLOWED CENTRE IS STILL WEAK AND BADLY DEFINED (EXPOSED ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO A LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR), AND MAY BE NOT THE DEFINITIVE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING
LAST HOURS, IT HAS DEFORMED AND ACCELARATED SOUTHWESTWARD.=

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