Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 09 Mar 2004 14:34:48 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GAFILO) WARNING NR 016
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- NEAR 20.9S1 43.2E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 43.2E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 21.8S1 43.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 22.4S8 44.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 23.0S5 44.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 23.6S1 45.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 43.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GAFILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 16S IS FORECASTED
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AFWA MM5, WBAR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT.
UKMET EGRR DEVELOPS A RIDGE OVER MOZAMBIQUE, TURNING THE SYSTEM
EQUATORWARD AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OTHER MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AS IT TRACKS OVER MADAGASCAR, BUT VARY IN SPEED. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (NICKY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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