Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 Mar 2004 23:41:32 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z/230600ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZMAR04//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211953ZMAR04//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 220000Z4, TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.7S7 155.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 211800Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (GRACE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 19.7S7 155.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 212100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8S7
169.1E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5S8 169.5E1, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEAL A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BUT WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: MOHAMMED/JACOBS/SCHULTZ/HEILER//

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