Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 01 Jan 2004 08:52:15 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z4 --- NEAR 8.7S5 175.0W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S5 175.0W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 8.5S3 174.4W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 8.9S7 173.7W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 10.4S5 173.5W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 12.5S8 173.3W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 15.0S6 173.3W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 8.7S5 174.8W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
320 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 07P CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD AND RECURVE TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS
ARE SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS DEPICT A SHARP RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE TC RECURVING
BACK UPON ITSELF AND CROSSING OVER ITS HISTORICAL TRACK.
THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS DEPICT A MORE GRADUAL RECURVE
SITUATION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z4, 020300Z5, 020900Z1 AND 021500Z8.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.