Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 03 Jan 2004 08:48:06 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z6 --- NEAR 10.7S8 174.2W4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 174.2W4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 12.0S3 174.5W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 13.1S5 174.5W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 14.4S9 173.9W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 16.0S7 172.7W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 20.1S3 168.5W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 174.3W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN INCREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BUILDING MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A PASSING TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING
RIDGE. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH 36 HOURS, AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO TRANSITION INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6, 040300Z7, 040900Z3 AND 041500Z0.//

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