Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 01 Mar 2004 15:07:42 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010251ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (EVAN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 14.0S5 135.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 135.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 14.1S6 133.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 14.2S7 130.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 14.4S9 128.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 14.7S2 125.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.8S4 120.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 135.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 15P HAS MADE LANDFALL. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS MODERATELY
INCREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALTHOUGH TC 15P IS OVER LAND.
TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA AND MODERATELY INCREASE INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS
BACK OVER WATER AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5, 020900Z1,
021500Z8 AND 022100Z5.

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