Subject: Indian-S: 1. Tropical Cyclone 08s Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 01 Jan 2004 14:45:02 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 012100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 16.5S2 122.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 122.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 16.6S3 120.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 16.9S6 118.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 17.3S1 115.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 17.8S6 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 121.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
320 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 011730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.  TC 08S IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST ALONG THE EQUATORWARD
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL  RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET
(EGRR), WBAR AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 011500 ). NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1
AND 022100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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