Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 05 Jan 2004 20:14:11 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 021
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 18.1S0 171.0W9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 171.0W9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 20.4S6 169.2W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 22.7S1 167.2W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 25.1S8 164.8W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 27.1S0 162.0W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 30.9S2 156.7W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 170.5W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 052330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. TC 07P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P HAS PEAKED AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5,
061500Z2, 062100Z9 AND 070300Z0.//

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