Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 02 Feb 2004 02:24:40 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 010
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 19.3S3 42.6E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 42.6E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 19.9S9 43.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 20.4S6 43.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 21.0S3 44.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 21.9S2 45.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 42.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
020530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
VENTILATION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS
AS IT REMAINS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. AS A MID-LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING ENVIRONMENT
FOR THIS SYSTEM, TC 09S WILL TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF
MADAGASCAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, AND
UKMET EGRR, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND 24
HOURS, INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL RAPIDLY DECAY THE STORM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 AND 030900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S
(FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (LINDA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.