Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 28 Jan 2004 12:14:48 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 281800
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/7/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7  (FRANK)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/28 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 64.1E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 180   SE: 280   SO: 200   NO: 120
50 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/01/29 06 UTC: 16.2S/63.7E, MAX WIND=070KT.
24H: 2004/01/29 18 UTC: 17.1S/63.0E, MAX WIND=075KT.
36H: 2004/01/30 06 UTC: 17.8S/62.6E, MAX WIND=080KT.
48H: 2004/01/30 18 UTC: 18.1S/62.0E, MAX WIND=085KT.
60H: 2004/01/31 06 UTC: 18.4S/61.3E, MAX WIND=090KT.
72H: 2004/01/31 18 UTC: 18.7S/60.8E, MAX WIND=090KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0+.
UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS  ALLOWS TO EXPECT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
WHAT
IS CONFIRMED WITH THE RECENT FORMATION OF A SMALL EYE WHICH IS
ALREADY
FORMED IN MEDIUM LEVEL, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SSMI IMAGERY AT 1507
UTC.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TRACK GENERALY SOUTHWARD, THEN IT IS
EXPECTED
 TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH.=

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