Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2004 08:34:00 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z2 --- NEAR 17.0S8 43.5E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 43.5E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 16.6S3 43.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 16.3S0 44.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 16.1S8 44.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 16.1S8 45.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 43.6E3.
RECENT SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC) 09S (ELITA) IS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.
BASED ON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY, WE RELOCATED THE POSITION ABOUT
120 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. TC 09S (ELITA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 271126Z9 SSM/I
PASS REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS FURTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE WEST. BY TAU 24, TC 09S
WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD IN AND
TAKE OVER THE STEERING PATTERN. THE RELOCATION HAS SHIFTED THE
OVERALL FORECAST TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. TC 09S IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TC 09S WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH LAND CAUSING A LOSS IN INTENSIFICATION. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, GFDN,
AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NCEP
AVIATION IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WHILE THE OTHER THREE MODELS KEEP
THE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH
MORE EMPHASIS ON NCEP AVIATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND
281500Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  10S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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