Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2004 02:50:02 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNING NR 006
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z9 --- NEAR 16.3S0 62.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 62.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 16.4S1 61.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 17.0S8 60.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 17.8S6 60.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 18.6S5 59.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 61.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 300530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90
AND 102 KNOTS. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD.
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD. TC 10S IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND INCREASE SPEED ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS
AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
302100Z6 AND 310900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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