Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 29 Feb 2004 17:58:05 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 292330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/292330ZFEB-010600ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/290751ZFEB2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 290600Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY) WAS
LOCATED AT 40.3S7 178.5W1, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
37 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31
PGTW 290900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA NEAR 15.2S8 137.8E9 HAS BEEN RELOCATED 70 NM FURTHER
NORTH NEAR 14.1S6 137.9E0, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.1 FROM POOR TO FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/TINOCO//

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