Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 02 Feb 2004 07:08:20 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 021200

 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

 0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 30/6/20032004
 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6  (ELITA)

 2.A POSITION 2004/02/02 AT 1200 UTC :
 19.2S / 42.7E
 (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
 EAST)

 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 /D  0.5/6 H
 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 980 HPA
 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
 30 KT       NE: 500   SE: 150   SO: 500   NO: 500
 50 KT       NE:       SE: 060   SO: 060   NO: 200

 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1500 KM
 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

 1.B FORECASTS:
 12H: 2004/02/03 00 UTC: 19.4S/43.3E, MAX WIND=060KT.
 24H: 2004/02/03 12 UTC: 20.0S/44.0E, MAX WIND=065KT.
 36H: 2004/02/04 00 UTC: 20.8S/44.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
 48H: 2004/02/04 12 UTC: 21.5S/45.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
 60H: 2004/02/05 00 UTC: 22.3S/46.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND.
 72H: 2004/02/05 12 UTC: 23.2S/47.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.

 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
 T=CI=4.0-
 ELITA EVOLVES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS INTENSIFICATION.
 NWP PRODUCTS, ECMWF, UKMO AND ARP ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREE

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