Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 12 Mar 2004 20:50:36 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 130300 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NICKY-HELMA) WARNING NR 010A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- NEAR 21.1S4 83.8E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S4 83.8E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 22.8S2 82.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 24.2S8 81.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 25.7S4 81.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 83.4E5.
THIS WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED TO REMOVE THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (NICKY-HELMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
900 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30,
35 AND 45 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FULLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 17S HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
WBAR, EGRR, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND 140300Z8.//

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