Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 02 Jan 2004 02:42:13 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 7.9S6 174.1W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S6 174.1W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 8.6S4 173.6W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 9.4S3 174.0W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 10.4S5 174.5W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 12.0S3 174.8W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 14.9S4 173.9W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 8.1S9 174.0W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0
INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 45 AND 55
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 07P
IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN
CONTINUE RECURVING TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR) AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS ARE SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS DEPICT A SHARP RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE
TC RECURVING BACK UPON ITSELF AND CROSSING OVER THE HISTORICAL
TRACK. THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MORE
GRADUAL RECURVE SITUATION. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8, 022100Z5, 030300Z6 AND 030900Z2.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.