Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 27 Mar 2004 02:23:50 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 023
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- NEAR 20.4S6 120.1E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 120.1E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 21.2S5 120.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 21.9S2 121.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 120.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY) MADE LANDFALL 90 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA APPROXIMATELY 6 HOURS
AGO. TC 18S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED DUE SOUTH AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
270530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 270610Z6 BROOME
RADAR IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AROUND A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS TC 18S
CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER INLAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AND EGRR
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNING AT 272100Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(OSCAR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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