Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 28 Feb 2004 23:58:57 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600ZFEB-010600ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR/281951ZFEB2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 281800Z8, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY) WAS
LOCATED AT 34.4S1 176.9E3, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
38 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31
PGTW 282100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 15.2S8 137.8E9,
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT QUIKSCAT
INDICATE AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/MENEBROKER/KELSEY//

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