Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2004 08:02:19 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 014
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z7 --- NEAR 29.9S0 61.4E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S0 61.4E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 36.2S1 64.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 51 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 44.9S7 71.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 31.5S9 62.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING OF CONVECTION OVER PAST SIX HOURS. TC 06S HAS
TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 13 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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