Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 10 Mar 2004 21:32:04 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 110014

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 2/10/20032004
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10  (HELMA EX-NICKY)

2.A POSITION 2004/03/11 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2S / 88.9E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 /D  1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 180   SE: 250   SO: 200   NO: 180
50 KT       NE: 020   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A
VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/03/11 12 UTC: 18.5S/87.9E, MAX WIND=065KT .
24H: 2004/03/12 00 UTC: 19.8S/87.2E, MAX WIND=065KT .
36H: 2004/03/12 12 UTC: 21.0S/86.4E, MAX WIND=050KT .
48H: 2004/03/13 00 UTC: 22.1S/85.8E, MAX WIND=050KT .
60H: 2004/03/13 12 UTC: 23.0S/85.0E, MAX WIND=050KT .
72H: 2004/03/14 00 UTC: 23.4S/83.6E, MAX WIND=050KT .

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE.

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