Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 Mar 2004 23:57:20 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/
AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZMAR2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZMAR2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 190000Z0, TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N7 127.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 190300)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 145.9E9
HAS BEEN RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
16.3S0 146.1E2, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED RADAR AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A DEEPENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH VARIOUS
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORTING MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE VALUES AROUND 998 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
GOOD VENTILATION FROM A POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD OFFSET SOMEWHAT
BY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. DUE TO DEEPENING
OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/PITTS/HEATH/KELSEY//

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