Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 06 Mar 2004 07:02:00 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 061223

 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

 0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 18/9/20032004
 1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9  (GAFILO)

 2.A POSITION 2004/03/06 AT 1200 UTC :
 14.8S / 52.5E
 (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
 EAST)

 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 7.0/7.0 /S
 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 900 HPA
 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 125 KT

 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
 30 KT       NE: 500   SE: 550   SO: 450   NO: 350
 50 KT       NE: 180   SE: 180   SO: 150   NO: 100

 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

 1.B FORECASTS:
 12H: 2004/03/07 00 UTC: 15.5S/50.8E, MAX WIND=115KT.
 24H: 2004/03/07 12 UTC: 16.7S/49.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, OVERLAND.
 36H: 2004/03/08 00 UTC: 18.0S/47.7E OVERLAND.
 48H: 2004/03/08 12 UTC: 19.5S/46.4E OVERLAND.
 60H: 2004/03/09 00 UTC: 20.8S/45.8E OVERLAND.
 72H: 2004/03/09 12 UTC: 22.5S/46.0E OVERLAND.

 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
 DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOWS, THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED THE STAGE OF
 VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE END OF LAST NIGHT (T=CI=7.0)
WITH A
VERY WELL DEFINED CIRCULAR AND WARM 20 NM DIAMETER EYE.  GAFILO SHOULD
MAINTAIN AT THIS MAXIMAL STAGE DURING NEXT HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
 AS IT APPRO
 CHES LANDS.
 IT SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF MASOALA PENINSULA DURING NEXT
 NIGHT OR ON SUNDAY MORNING.

 GAFILO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF
 THE SYSTEM, AND THEN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THIS MID-LEVEL HIGH MOVES EAST
  OF GAFILO.

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