Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 03 Jan 2004 15:13:01 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (HETA) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 10.7S8 174.8W0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 174.8W0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 11.8S0 175.2W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 13.0S4 174.9W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 14.7S2 173.9W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 16.8S5 171.9W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 21.1S4 166.8W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 174.9W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 031730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. TC 07P CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW EVIDENT ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 07P WILL REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN 36 TO
48 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR. TC 07P WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
IN 60 TO 72 HOURS AND ACCELERATE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, AND NCEP
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z7, 040900Z3, 041500Z0 AND 042100Z7.//

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