Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 03 Jan 2004 00:14:44 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 030600
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 21/4/20032004
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4  (DARIUS)

2.A POSITION 2004/01/03 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 57.9E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 MOINS /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 300   SO: 250   NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/01/03 18 UTC: 24.2S/58.0E, MAX WIND=040KT.
24H: 2004/01/04 06 UTC: 27.3S/59.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2004/01/04 18 UTC: 30.6S/60.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2004/01/05 06 UTC: 35.0S/63.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 CI=3.0+
THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING. DARIUS WILL
BECOME
AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT SHORT RANGE.=

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