Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 17 Jan 2004 11:40:38 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
UNCLAS //N03145//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZJAN2004//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2 60.5E1,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY AND HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BROAD DEEP CONVECTION WITHOUT THE
PRESENCE OF A DEFINED CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES, HOWEVER,
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE, WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DUAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. RELEASED BY: LT WINGEART, USN.
FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/ARENDS/JACOBS/COOK//

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