Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 04 Feb 2004 02:46:08 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ELITA) WARNING NR 014
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 24.8S4 50.5E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S4 50.5E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 28.4S4 53.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 32.5S0 54.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 25.7S4 51.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ELITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
TC 09S HAS ACCELERATED SINCE MOVING OFFSHORE WITH CONVECTION AND
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING POLEWARD OF THE NOW EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE RAPID MOTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WESTWARD OF
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 24 HOURS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR, ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. OUR FORECAST FOLLOWS
CONSENSUS TRACK AND NOGAPS SPEED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 040600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 10S (FRANK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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