Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 06 Feb 2004 17:35:37 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 062343
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 48/6/20032004
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6  (EX-ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/07 AT 0000 UTC :
25.4S / 52.2E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 250   SE: 500   SO: 500   NO: 500

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/07 12 UTC: 24.3S/51.8E EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2004/02/08 00 UTC: 24.0S/51.3E EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2004/02/08 12 UTC: 24.3S/50.9E EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2004/02/09 00 UTC: 24.6S/51.2E EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2004/02/09 12 UTC: 25.9S/51.7E DISSIPATING.
72H: 2004/02/10 00 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
MODELS DIFFER A LOT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK. THEY ALL MAKE IT SLOW
ON
ERRATIC TRAK, BUT IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, FOLLOWING THE STRONGEST
INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW OR THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH
BUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST.=

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