Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 28 Feb 2004 14:25:31 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (MONTY) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z9 --- NEAR 19.3S3 116.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 116.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 19.7S7 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 20.5S7 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 21.8S1 114.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 23.2S7 115.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 27.2S1 119.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 116.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (MONTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS SUPPORTING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS. TC 14S IS THEN EXPECTED TO
TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MID-PERIOD AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS OVER LAND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
EGRR, NCEP GFS, AND TLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 AND 292100Z4.//

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