Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 311851z Dec 03//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 31 Dec 2003 11:51:56 -0600

WTPS21 PGTW 311900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 311851Z DEC 03//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301851Z DEC 03//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 13.4S8 176.9W3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 311730Z5 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 177.1W6. THE SYSTEM IS
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5
176.7W1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 177.1W6, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
WEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION IS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 011900Z1.//

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