Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 23 Mar 2004 20:31:25 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 002
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z6 --- NEAR 14.6S1 96.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 96.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 14.7S2 95.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 14.9S4 93.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 15.5S1 92.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 16.0S7 91.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 96.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 232330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
232337Z0 QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A 232337Z0 QUIKSCAT
PASS DEPICTING 45 TO 50 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. A RECENT 232335Z8
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BANDING EYE BEGINNING TO FORM, WHILE
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD
DIRECTION. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR, GFDN AND EGRR
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS IS AN EQUATORWARD
OUTLIER, INITIALIZES ON THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK CIRCULATION, AND
FORECASTS IT TO REMAIN THAT WAY. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON
NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 AND 250300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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