Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 30 Jan 2004 20:02:35 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 310130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/310130Z-311800ZJAN2004//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301952ZJAN2004//
REF/B/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301353ZJAN2004//
REF/C/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302151ZJAN2004//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A/
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 301800Z2, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (FRANK) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S1 61.7E4, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS,
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 302100) FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
      (2) AT 301200Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (LINDA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1S4 95.7E1, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW 301500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S (ELITA), LAST WARNED ON 290000Z1,
ARE LOCATED NEAR 21.6S9 49.1E4, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM OFF THE EASTERN
COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR, HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND
ARE NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REF C).
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO
IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON LAND BEFORE IT REACHES TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. SEE
REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 302200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) FROM FAIR TO GOOD.
4. RELEASED BY: MAJOR GRUBER, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/HEATH/TINOCO//

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