Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 06 Feb 2004 06:46:51 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 061217

 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

 0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 46/6/20032004
 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6  (EX-ELITA)

 2.A POSITION 2004/02/06 AT 1200 UTC :
 WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3S / 51.5E
 (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE
 DEGREES EAST)

 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 992 HPA
 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
 30 KT       NE: 400   SE: 600   SO: 600   NO: 400

 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 1000 KM
 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

 1.B FORECASTS:
 12H: 2004/02/07 00 UTC: 26.3S/51.3E, MAX WIND=040KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
 24H: 2004/02/07 12 UTC: 26.2S/51.1E, MAX WIND=035KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
 36H: 2004/02/08 00 UTC: 26.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
 48H: 2004/02/08 12 UTC: 25.9S/50.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING.
 60H: 2004/02/09 00 UTC: DISSIPATED.
 72H: 2004/02/09 12 UTC: DISSIPATED.

 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
 SEVERAL LOWS EXIST WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
 MODELS DIFFER A LOT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK. THEY ALL MAKE IT
SLOW BUT
 IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, FOLLOWING THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF THE
 MONSOON FLOW OR THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING IN THE
 SOUTHWEST. UK MO ADOPTS A SOUTHWARDS TRACK, ECMWF AN EASTWARDS ONE, AND
 ARP/T A NORTHWARDS
  ONE.

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