Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 10 Feb 2004 00:24:36 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 100633
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 61/6/20032004
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6  (EX-ELITA)

2.A POSITION 2004/02/10 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.5S / 57.5E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 150   SE: 300   SO: 600   NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2004/02/10 18 UTC: 26.5S/56.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2004/02/11 06 UTC: 26.6S/54.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2004/02/11 18 UTC: 27.3S/52.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2004/02/12 06 UTC: 28.5S/50.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2004/02/12 18 UTC: 30.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2004/02/13 06 UTC: 33.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-ELITA IS STRONGLY SHEARED, AWITH A RESIDUAL CONVECTION LOCATED IN
THE
SOUTH-EST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. MODELS (ECMWF, UK-MO AND ARP/T)
ARE IN
 GOOD AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTWARDS, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE
OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH, AND THEN TRACK POLEWARDS AS THE
THALWEG
 SHIFTS,
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.=

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