Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 25 Mar 2004 02:57:48 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 019
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z3 --- NEAR 17.4S2 121.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 121.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 18.2S1 121.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 19.1S1 120.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 20.2S4 120.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 21.2S5 121.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 121.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 250530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND REDUCED OUTFLOW
ALOFT. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AND WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 18S
INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z0 AND 260900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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