Subject: Pacific-SW: 1.tropical Cyclone 12p (fritz) Warning Nr 001

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 11 Feb 2004 20:38:01 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 120000
RMKS/
1.TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (FRITZ) WARNING NR 001
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z3 --- NEAR 16.7S4 140.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 140.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 17.2S0 138.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 17.5S3 136.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 139.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FRITZ), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
EAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, HAS
MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY
FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A GOOD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SYNOPTIC WIND REPORTS
ARE LOWER THAN THE SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND SHEAR IS MINIMAL. TC 12P
HAS TIME AND THE ENVIRONMENT TO DEVELOP FURTHER BEFORE LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 121500Z9.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.