Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 23 Mar 2004 03:03:35 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z1 --- NEAR 14.2S7 120.6E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 120.6E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 14.8S3 120.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 15.7S3 120.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 16.5S2 119.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 17.3S1 119.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 19.1S1 118.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9  120.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (FAY), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 230530Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 AND 115
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK EYE FEATURE WITH
DECREASED BANDING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN
A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE WEAKNESS HAS BEEN
CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 18S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THAT TROUGH FILLS. ADDITIONALY, THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY UNDER A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AND TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, TCLAPS, WBAI,
AFWA MM5, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 AND 240900Z5.//

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