Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 20:26:17 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- NEAR 17.8S6 160.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 160.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 18.2S1 159.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 18.3S2 158.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 18.3S2 157.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 18.3S2 157.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 160.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
425 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45, 65, AND 75 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY WITH INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 072140Z4 SSMI
PASS AT 85 GHZ DEPICTS A SYMMETRICAL, CLOUD FILLED EYE. TC 08P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TO SLOW DOWN TO NEAR QUASISTATIONARY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 08P IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IN THE
POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDN, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, WBAR AND NCEP GFS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MM5 IS A SIGNFICANT
POLEWARD OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MODELS. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS WITH LESS
EMPHASIS ON MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//

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