Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 141330zjan2005//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 08:24:23 -0600

WTIO21 PGTW 141330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 141330ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 4.8N2 87.0E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131130Z9 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.8N2 87.0E5. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERCEDES REF A. AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8 84.7E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N2 87.0N5, APPROXI-
MATELY 445 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW  AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. DUE TO CONTINUED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151330Z3.//

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