Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 14:30:52 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- NEAR 5.2N7 83.5E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.2N7 83.5E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 5.7N2 84.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 6.0N6 84.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 5.9N4 83.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 5.9N4 82.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 6.2N8 80.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 5.3N8 83.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE, DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES. DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 01B
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, ALTERING TO A WESTWARD TRACK BY
THE MID-PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL ADVERSELY AFFECT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATE PERIOD. DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH
WIDE VARIATION IN THE EXTENT OF THE CONSOLIDATION AND THE
RESULTING STEERING INFLUENCES. TWO ALTERNATE SCENARIOS EXIST
BASED ON THESE MODELS, WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK AS A VERY WEAK
SYSTEM UNTIL THE MID-PERIOD IN NOGAPS AND, ALTERNATELY, A
WESTWARD TURN EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DEMONSTRATED
IN NCEP GFS. DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATION IN ALL AVAILABLE AIDS,
CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL FORECAST IS ONLY MODERATE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 09 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31
PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 072300Z JAN 05
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 072251) NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z2, 090900Z8, 091500Z5 AND 092100Z2.//

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