Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2005 03:23:11 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 110922
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG LINE 4N77W 5N110W
9N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

..DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
AREA IS UNDER STRONG ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW DUE TO TWO LARGE
UPPER LOWS LOCATED N AND W OF AREA. JET STREAM OF 120-130 KT IS
OVER NW PORTION OF AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W IN SW-W FLOW...WHILE
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY WEAKER JET IS N OF 30N E OF 130W WITH WINDS OF
100-120 KT. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA...WITH MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED W OF 130W. UPPER WINDS DECREASE OVER MEXICO...WITH
OBSERVED WINDS MAINLY IN 60-80 KT RANGE. MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN
THIS AREA IS A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS AREA NEAR 32N125W AND
EXTENDS SW TO 27N135W. FARTHER E...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1022 MB
HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR 25N120W.

PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SLIGHT CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE LOW N OF AREA MOVES INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA...AND
THE LOW W OF AREA DEEPENS NEAR 150W. THIS WILL PLACE AREA N OF
20N DISCUSSION AREA UNDER BROAD RIDGING ALOFT...WITH MAIN AREA
OF DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW W OF 135W IN AREA OF INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION. JET STREAM WILL BECOME REORIENTED NW-SE OVER
AND OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND...WITH
ANOTHER STRONG JET JUST NW OF DISCUSSION AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW W OF AREA.

S OF 20N...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 10N124W TO 24N105W IS IS MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD...LEAVING BEHIND A BROAD AND WEAK LOW NEAR
10N126W. FARTHER E...PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
HIGH NEAR 8N115W TO OVER MEXICO AT 20N100W. SW UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURE IS HELPING TO ADVECT ITCZ MOISTURE NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE MEXICO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS REMAINDER OF AREA S OF 20N W OF 110W. OVER SE
PORTION OF AREA...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO 3N97W IS NEARLY STATIONARY. DEEP
MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG AND E OF TROUGH FROM PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA EASTWARD ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. W OF THE
TROUGH...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY UNDER MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE WEAK WESTERN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVING RAPIDLY E NEAR 20N TOWARDS THE MEXICAN COAST WHILE THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND BECOME RELOCATED NEAR 130W.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY...KEEPING AREAS FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA
RATHER WET.

SURFACE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE
DECREASING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUNRISE
TODAY. STRONG NE WIND OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION HAVE ALSO
DECREASED AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

$$
LL

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