Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 01:21:40 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z6 --- NEAR 13.3S7 77.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 77.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 14.7S2 73.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 16.2S9 70.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 17.3S1 67.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 18.1S0 65.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 76.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1190 NM EAST-NORTH-
EAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190530Z8 MULTISPEC-
TRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A STEADY RATE IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
AND CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
DEEPER AS WELL AS MORE CONSOLIDATED. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CRESTS THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MORE UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 09 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 AND 200900Z1.//

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