Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Vii And Metarea Viii (s)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 12:12:06 -0600

WTIO22 FMEE 151810
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/02/2005
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY   15/02/2005 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 1000 HPA
POSITION:           22.0S / 53.4E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES  SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS BETWEEN 40 NM AND 350 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN
THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 110 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS
  UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN  QUADRANT AND UP
TO
250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/02/16 AT 06 UTC:
22.2S / 51.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/02/16 AT 18 UTC:
22.5S / 50.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON REGULARLY TRACKING WESTWARDS AND THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES, THEN SLOW DOWN AS A TROUGH SHIFTS IN THE SOUTH.
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION AT SHORT RANGE.
STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=

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