Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 21:39:01 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 260338
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...3N77W 5N88W 4N98W 7N113W
6N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 110W AND 113W.

OTHER CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF 19.5N
112.5W.

..DISCUSSION...
WEST OF 105W...
EXPANSIVE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 155W/160W
HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA WEST OF 125W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED WEST OF 125W...WITH AN AREA OF VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INDICATED S OF 20N W OF 130W. 135-150 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CONTINUES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
EXTENDS FROM 32N140W 29N133W TO 24N125W. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
IN THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM
SE OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 30N131W TO 23N140W. TWO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS THAT APPEARED IN PHASE EARLIER ARE BECOMING
SEPARATED. THE FIRST...ALONG 32N121W SSEWD TO NEAR 23N118W IS
SWINGING ENEWD 15-20 KT. THE SECOND TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 17N119W SSEWD TO 5N118W AND IS MOVING E 10 KT. DIFFLUENT
FLOW E OF BOTH TROUGHS HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND FURTHER NORTH WITHIN 45
NM OF 19.5N 112.5W. MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT ARE
ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA...THE SEA OF CORTEZ...NW MEXICO INTO THE SW CONUS.

EAST OF 105W...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW COVERS MOST OF
THE AREA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER COLOMBIA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS FLOW REGIME IS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING EWD 15 KT OVER HONDURAS.

$$
COBB

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