Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 18:22:15 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 130020

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 14/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/13 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 59.5E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S  0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/13 12 UTC: 20.6S/59.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/02/14 00 UTC: 21.8S/59.2E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/14 12 UTC: 22.7S/57.7E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/15 00 UTC: 23.3S/55.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/15 12 UTC: 23.7S/54.1E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/16 00 UTC: 23.8S/52.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
FLUCTUATING CONVECTION WITH STRONG DIURNAL CYCLE.
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDSHEAR, VISIBLE ON
THE
IR IMAGERY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ; THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE POLEWARDS
AROUND
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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