Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A23 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 08:13:30 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 161200    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A23 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 16/1409 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [975HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1S 160.82
AT 161200 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CURVE WEST. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60
KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE 33
KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN
100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. 

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PREVAILS OVER NANCY AS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ORGANISATION DECREASED
RAPIDLY IN PAST 6 HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SE OF LLCC. SHEAR
PATTERN WITH LLCC <0.5 DEGREE FROM DEEP CONVECTION YIELDS DT=3.0,
MET=3.5 AND PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. CI KEPT AT 4.0:
T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND SOUTH BUT DECREASING
ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SOUTHWEST THEN WEST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND OLAF. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING WITH NANCY'S REMNANTS BEING
ABSORBED INTO CIRCULATION AROUND TC OLAF WITHIN 48 HOURS.    

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 24.3S 161.6W MOV SW 09KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC NEAR 25.0S 163.2W MOV WSW 09KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
NANCY WEAKENING BELOW TC INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS AS RESIDUAL LLCC
MERGES WITH TC OLAF.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 162000 UTC. 

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