Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 02:13:19 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 18.2S1 161.5W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 161.5W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 20.9S1 159.9W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 23.5S0 157.7W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 26.0S8 154.6W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 28.4S4 150.7W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 161.1W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
060530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DUAL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
EYE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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