Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 00:51:48 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 200650

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 7/8/20042005
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/20 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7S / 45.4E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 050   SE: 050   SO: 050   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/20 18 UTC: 14.1S/43.7E, MAX WIND=040KT.
24H: 2005/01/21 06 UTC: 15.9S/42.1E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2005/01/21 18 UTC: 17.9S/41.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/01/22 06 UTC: 19.8S/40.9E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/01/22 18 UTC: 21.4S/41.1E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/01/23 06 UTC: 23.5S/41.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPPED QUICKLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH FORMATION
OF
AN EYE WITHIN THE HEAD OF THE CLOUD COMMA ASSOCIATED TO THE CURVED
BAND
PATTERN.
MAYOTTE WAS CONCERNED BY THE MAXIMUM WINDS AREA IN THE SOUTWEST OF
THIS
EYE HAS MEASURED MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS OF 22 M/S WITH A PEAK GUST OF
30KT
 (MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE WAS 995.5 HPA).=

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