Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 07 Feb 2005 16:07:36 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 072207
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 2N78W 2N86W 4N93W 3N99W 
8N126W 8N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 116W AND 123W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1S143W WITH ITS RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 13N150W. THE UPPER FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC 
OVER THE REGION S OF 10N W OF 130W...AND CONTINUES ESE BACK 
ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 100W.
  
AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 20N130W CONTINUES TO MOVE SE TOWARDS INTO 
A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE-TILT MID-UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS 
MEAN AXIS ALONG 32N112W TO 13N103W. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME IS 
SHIFTING THROUGH THE TROUGH...GENERALLY TO THE E OF 128W.  
MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED N OF 13N W OF 
128W. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES ID CENTERED AT 31N133W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 20N115W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL EVIDENT FROM 7N127W TO 17N112W...WITH 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.     

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
ESTIMATED NEAR 8N88W WITH A RIDGE AXIS NE TO NEAR 23N75W AND IS 
COLLAPSING SE AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED SE OF POINTS 5N110W 24N99W 32N80W...
AND CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. 

AT THE SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL THE OROGRAPHIC GAPS..TEHUANTEPEC... 
PAPAGAYO... FONSECA AND PANAMA THROUGH WED...THEN INCREASE TO 30 
KT THU WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  

$$
NELSON

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