Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 15:53:12 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 062152
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 6N95W 6N114W 8N140W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W-104W.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
A ZONAL UPPER WIND PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE AREA WITH FAIRLY
RAPID CHANGES TAKING PLACE ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG 116W CONTINUES TO SWEEP EWD AT 30-35 KT MOVING
INLAND OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SRN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER W...A
FLAT RIDGE AXIS ALONG 135W EXTENDS FROM 23N THROUGH 32N WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH N OF THE AREA AND ALONG 140W. THIS TROUGH IS
LENDING LIMITED SUPPORT TO A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
32N130W SWWD TO NEAR 25N140W. THE FRONT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
100 NM WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS. FURTHER S...A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 8N116W COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N AND E OF 130W...AND EXTENDS
TO ALONG 100W. SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED STABLE AIR AROUND THE
ANTICYCLONE WAS NOT ALLOWING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE ITCZ.
HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 15N AND 20N ARE ROTATING AROUND RIDGE.
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE AND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG 116W EXTENDS FROM 14N126W ENEWD TO CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. CORE SPEEDS WERE AROUND 100 KT. THIS
JET STREAM WAS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD INTO
NRN MEXICO AND THE CONUS.

E OF 100W...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SWWD
THROUGH 13N100W TO EQ109W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS RADIATING AWAY FROM SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 98W-104W DUE TO DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROF. ELSEWHERE...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED ON THE ITCZ
E OF 80W.

$$
COBB/BERG

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