Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2005 15:59:51 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 102159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 7N77W 5N97W 6N110W 8N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 88W.

..DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
AREA IS UNDER STRONG ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW CAUSED BY A LARGE
LOW WELL N OF AREA. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALONG 30N
JUST OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST WHERE AIRCRAFT DATA FROM
EARLIER TODAY INDICATED A 120-140 KT JET STREAM ACROSS THAT
AREA. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH IN LESSER AMOUNTS THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. UPPER WINDS DECREASE OVER MEXICO...WITH OBSERVED
WINDS MAINLY IN 50-70 KT RANGE UNDER WEAK RIDGE NEAR 105W.
SURFACE FEATURES IN THIS AREA ARE RATHER COMPLEX...WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO ALONG
32N121W-28N133W TO WEAK LOW 1017 MB NEAR 26N140W. THIS FRONT IS
BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE NW WHICH WAS
LOCATED ALONG 32N130W-30N140W. ONLY AREAS OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
TO MID CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS. FARTHER E...A
NEARLY STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE BAJA COAST
NEAR 26N119W. PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SLIGHT CHANGES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STRONG LOW N OF AREA MOVES INLAND OVER
CALIFORNIA...AND ANOTHER STRONG LOW W OF AREA DEEPENS NEAR 150W.
THIS WILL PLACE DISCUSSION AREA UNDER RIDGING ALOFT...WITH MAIN
AREAS OF DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW STAYING W OF 140W. JET
STREAM WILL BECOME REORIENTED NW-SE OVER AND OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

S OF 20N...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N128W TO A BROAD AND
WEAK LOW NEAR 9N125W. FARTHER E...PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR 8N115W TO BEYOND 20N108W. SW UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURE IS HELPING TO ADVECT ITCZ MOISTURE NE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE MEXICO. ELSEWHERE S OF 20N W OF 110W...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF AREA.
OVER SE PORTION OF AREA...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO 3N97W HAS DRIFTED W OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WESTWARD MOVEMENT HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA WHILE PERSISTING
OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. W OF THE TROUGH...THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS QUITE DRY UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE FEATURES
S OF 20N ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
EXCEPT FOR WESTERN TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY AND
MOVE RAPIDLY E ALONG 20N TOWARDS THE MEXICAN COAST.

SURFACE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT. STRONG NE
WINDS OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

$$
MOLLEDA

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