Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert/172021zjan2005//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 14:53:29 -0600

WTXS22 PGTW 172030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/172021ZJAN2005//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170921ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 170930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S8 56.5E6 TO 11.8S0 51.9E5
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
171730Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
56.1E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6
57.2E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.01 56.1E2, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTH
OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182030Z4.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4 84.5E7.//

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