Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 19:55:33 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 050000    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 05/0153 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [965HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 164.1W
AT 050000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. 

MEENA HAS INTENSIFIED SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A BANDING EYE
APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTOR BY STRONG CROSS
EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CURVED BAND WRAP OF
1.2 YIELDS DT=4.0, MET=4.5, PT=FT=4.0, CI=4.5: T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS.
EXPECT SYSTEM RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DECREASE AS MEENA
ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH AN
ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.   

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 15.8S 163.2W MOV SE AT 8 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 17.5S 162.4W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 19.5S 161.1W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 22.3S 158.9W MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
050830 UTC.

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