Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 07 Feb 2005 21:58:30 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 080358
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 5N77W 3N87W 6N93W 3N101W 
7N124W 6N133W 9N139W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 120W TO 125W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1N145W WITH ITS RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 14N150W. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
CONTINUES SE INTO THE REGION FROM 4N TO 12N ALONG 140W...AND 
CONTINUES SE BACK ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 100W.
  
AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 21N129W CONTINUES TO MOVE E INTO A 
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE-TILT MID-UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MEAN AXIS ALONG 
32N113W TO 13N111W. AN UPPER MOISTURE PLUME IS SHIFTING ENE 
THROUGH THE TROUGH...GENERALLY TO THE E OF 124W.  MODERATE TO 
STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED N OF RIDGE...ALONG 10N...W OF 
127W. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES IS CENTERED AT 32N132W 
1023MB...WITH A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 21N115W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 7N130W 15N122W TO 20N115W...WITH 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING 
E OF THE TROUGH...ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
10N121W 23N106W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS 
ADVECTED NE...MERGING WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME DESCRIBED 
ABOVE...WITH THE RESULTANT PLUME SPREADING NE ACROSS THE SE 
CONUS. 
     
OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
ESTIMATED NEAR 8N88W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO A 
COLLAPSING CREST NEAR 22N75W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
NOTED SE OF POINTS 3N110W 20N100W 31N80W...AND CONTINUES TO 
SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE AT BEST. 

NOTE THAT AN ITCZ AXIS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING S OF THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 3S79W 5S95W 3S120W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS AT THE MOMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL THE OROGRAPHIC GAPS..TEHUANTEPEC... 
PAPAGAYO... FONSECA AND PANAMA THROUGH WED...THEN INCREASE TO 30 
KT THU WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  

$$
NELSON

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