Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2005 03:54:07 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 260953
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...2N78W  6N120W  7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM 8N110W.

OTHER CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM E OF LINE
FROM 17N115W TO 30N114W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
LARGE AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH BRINGS 140 KT JET CORE INTO NW
CORNER OF FORECAST AREA WITH CONFLUENCE AROUND BASE AT EQUATOR
AND 116W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINS ENTIRE AREA W
OF 119W VERY DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...NOT EVEN ITCZ ESCAPES EXTREME DRY AREA WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

E OF 105W...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE
COMBINED WITH JET ACCELERATION OF WIND TO NEAR 100 KT PRODUCING
SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED N-NE BY
JET ENCOUNTERING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING DEEP
CONVECTION FROM BASE OF TROUGH ALONG AND E OF 115W ALL THE WAY
TO 30N NOW CROSSING S BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ENTERING NW MEXICO.
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REACH SW CONUS IN VICINITY OF W TEXAS WITH
POSSIBILITY OF MORE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN AREA.

RENEWED SUBSIDENCE ON E SIDE OF RIDGE AND VERY SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 87W COMBINING TO DRY REMAINING OF
AREA E OF 100W COVERING THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MEXICO AND ALL OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WINDS CROSSING FROM CARIBBEAN AND GULF
OF MEXICO INTO EPAC BASIN DECREASING NEXT 36 HRS AS HIGH PRES
RESPONSIBLE FOR IT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E.

$$
WALLY BARNES

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.