Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 21:07:02 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 010306
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 6N95W 4N108W 8N123W 8N140W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM
123W TO 130W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING N AREA NEAR 30N124W THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 19N126W TO 13N133W EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
AND DRIFT E ALONG 120W DURING NEXT 48. ASSOCIATED POLAR FINGER
WITH 100 KT MAX N OF 17N...NEW 110 KT MAX BRANCH ENTERS NW AREA
SUN. MID/UPPER MOISTURE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BUT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED NEAR DIVERGENT QUAD OF JET
MAX N OF 16N W OF 122W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS FROM 14N TO
22N W OF 130W W OF TROUGH AXIS.

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 30N120W 27N126W 27N133W ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH. FRONT CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED WITH TIME. MAINLY
LOW MID DECK MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM. LITTLE
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AS UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS MINIMIZE IT.

E OF 110W...
UPPER TROUGH OVER W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS HONDURAS INTO EXTREME EPAC
WITH BROAD RIDGE SE OF AXIS. VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES
ENTIRE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE TRADES SPILLING OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ENTERING
EPAC WATERS N OF 8N AND E OF 100W AND MERGE IN HEAVY SWELLS
ALONG N OF 5N E OF 110W.

$$
ROBERTS

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