Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 14:15:06 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 010
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z5 --- NEAR 12.2S5 173.6W7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 173.6W7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 13.8S2 171.5W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 15.9S5 169.6W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 18.0S9 168.1W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 20.3S5 166.8W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 24.2S8 164.6W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 173.1W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7 ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
127 AND 140 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SUSTAINED STRONG RADIAL OUFLOW AND A RECENT
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z5 IS 47 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0, 160900Z6,
162100Z0 AND 170300Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P
(NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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