Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 06:30:40 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 311229

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 18/11/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11  (EX-FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/31 AT 1200 UTC :
23.1S / 50.7E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/2.0 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/01 00 UTC: 23.9S/50.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/01 12 UTC: 25.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=020KT.
36H: 2005/02/02 00 UTC: 26.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
48H: 2005/02/02 12 UTC: 27.2S/49.8E DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING, AND THE TRACK IS NOW SOUTHWARDS, TOWARDS AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS
REINTENSIFICATION
.=

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