Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 04:56:40 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 131100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131100Z-140600ZFEB2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130751ZFEB2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131021ZFEB2005//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
        (1) AT 130600Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY) WAS LOC-
ATED NEAR 13.0S4 164.5W6, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
PAGO PAGO, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 130900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
        (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S4
178.0W6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3 177.4W9, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. A 130744Z9 SSM/I PASS INDICATES A POSSIBLE
BANDING EYE. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CONSOL-
IDATION AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. SEE REF B (WTPS22
PGTW 131030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0
165.2W4 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO WARN-
ING STATUS AND UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO GOOD.
4. THE JTWC HOMEPAGE WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FROM APPROXIMATELY 150200Z8
TO 150830Z7FEB DUE TO MAINTENANCE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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