Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 231351z Jan 05//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 07:39:48 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 231351Z JAN 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2S7 110.9E1 TO 18.5S4 105.3E9 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231130Z0 INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 110.0E2. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5
112.0E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 110.0E2, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPEC-
TRAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ADDITIONALLY, ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDERNEATH AN AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SURFACE INFLOW AS EVIDENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AND THE PERSISTENCE IN DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVEL-
OPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241400Z1.//

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