Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert/122151zfeb2005//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 16:06:07 -0600

WTPS21 PGTW 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/122151ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
091 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S9 166.6W9 TO 14.0S5
163.4W4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MET
SAT IMAGERY AT 121730Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2 166.0W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTH
EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8
167.0W4, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2 166.0W3, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 121221Z9 AMSR-E PASS
DEPICTS A SMALL WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WITH CONTINUED CROSS-EQUATORIAL
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 132200Z8.//

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