Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 00:20:53 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 210619

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 13/9/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9  (EX-DAREN)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/21 AT 0600 UTC :
16.8S / 66.4E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.5 /W  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 050   SE: 100   SO: 100   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/21 18 UTC: 17.0S/63.9E, MAX WIND=030KT .
24H: 2005/01/22 06 UTC: 17.2S/61.5E, MAX WIND=028KT .
36H: 2005/01/22 18 UTC: 18.0S/59.3E, MAX WIND=028KT .
48H: 2005/01/23 06 UTC: 18.9S/57.3E, MAX WIND=025KT .
60H: 2005/01/23 18 UTC: 19.9S/55.7E, MAX WIND=025KT .
72H: 2005/01/24 06 UTC: 21.8S/53.9E, MAX WIND=025KT .

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DAREN UNDERGOES A MODERATE  NORTHNORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE CENTER
IS
FULLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION.
THE
SYSTEM IS MEETING DRY ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE TO REINTENSIFICATION.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND WEAKENING.
NWP
 AGREE TO TRACK IT IN THE VICINITY OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS.
STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT
EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=

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