Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 10:29:37 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 051629
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 2N77W 6N90W 9N130W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS AT 139W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 109W TO 117W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 130W...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 140W ENTERS REGION 
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING W OF 130W.  GOOD MOISTURE 
CONTENT IN AIR MASS EXCEPT QUITE DRY S OF 6N.  STRONG 80 KT JET 
CORE DECREASES SPEED TO LESS THAN 50 KT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM 
PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE E OF 130W.

FROM 130W TO 100W...
PERSISTENT AND WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONIC VORTEX REMAINS ANCHORED  
AT 28N112W OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SW TO 12N118W.  DECREASE
IN JET CORE WIND CAUSES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N 
WITHIN 600 NM NW OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
APPROACHING W SIDE OF VORTEX APPEARS WITH ENOUGH ENERGY TO 
ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN NEGATIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE 
CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND W CENTRAL MEXICO.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR 
PRECIPITATION AS TROPICAL WATER SOURCE EXTENDS S OF 5N.  
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXTENDS AS FAR E AS TEXAS.

E OF 100W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 90W MAINTAINS DRY 
AIRMASS OVER REMAINING AREA S OF 20N E OF 100W.  VERY DRY 
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA EXTEND INTO ITCZ WITH NO DEEP 
CONVECTION E OF 107W.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG RIDGE OVER SW N ATLC CONTINUES 
PROMPTING STRONG WIND OVER CARIBBEAN AND SPILLING OVER E PAC 
ACROSS PASSAGES IN GULFS OF PANAMA...PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC.
GALE WARNING AND OTHER STRONG WIND SPEEDS FORECASTED TO DECREASE 
SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT 24-36 HRS BUT SWELLS LIKELY TO REMAIN LONGER. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES

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