Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 01:58:36 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z1 --- NEAR 24.7S3 43.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S3 43.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 27.5S4 46.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 30.7S0 51.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 34.5S2 56.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 36 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 38.3S4 64.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 25.4S1 44.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 230530Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTEN-
SITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS
FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS TC 12S IS SITUATED ALONG THE MADAGASCAR COAST.
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC). THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH (MSWT) BEGINS TO CONTROL THE STEERING FLOW.
TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE MSWT
AFTER TAU 24 AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MSWT DECOUPLES THE CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 AND
240900Z5.//

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