Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 07 Feb 2005 06:10:46 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 071204

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 10/13/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2005/02/07 AT 1200 UTC :
26.5S / 54.0E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 050   SE: 090   SO: 090   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/08 00 UTC: 27.0S/52.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.
24H: 2005/02/08 12 UTC: 27.1S/50.9E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2005/02/09 00 UTC: 27.6S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/09 12 UTC: 28.5S/48.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/02/10 00 UTC: 30.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2005/02/10 12 UTC: 32.0S/48.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM PATTERN (SHEAR PATTERN ASSOCIATED TO WEAK CONVECTION) AND
ASSOCIATED INTENSITY ACCORDING DVORAK TECHNIQUE DO NOT CORRESPOND TO
ESTIMATED FORCE WINDS (30/35 KT, OR EVEN 40 KT IN THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM
, DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES).
SO THIS WARNING DOES NOT APPLY DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THEN POLEWARDS WITH
THE
NEXT TROUGH BEYOND 36 HOURS.=

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