Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 02:11:52 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 050600    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 05/0809 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [960HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 163.7W
AT 050600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES
OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. 

MEENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. CDO
TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AND BANDS WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. AN EYE
APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN RECENT IR IMAGES. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED IN THE NORTHEAST SECTOR BY STRONG CROSS
EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE YIELDS
DT=5.0, MET=4.5, PT=FT=4.5, CI=4.5: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS. EXPECT
SYSTEM RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DECREASE AS MEENA ACCELERATES
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH AN ACCELERATION
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.   

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 17.0S 162.9W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 19.1S 161.8W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 21.6S 160.6W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 24.0S 159.3W MOV SSE AT 18 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
051430 UTC.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.