Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 04:23:36 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 151023
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 4N90W 4N100W 4N110W 5N125W 8N130W 7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 97W-99W.

DISCUSSION...

WEST OF 120W...

DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH N OF 18N WITH AXIS ALONG 30N131W 24N135W 
18N140W IS ADVANCING EASTWARD QUICKLY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N127W 24N130W 17N140W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH WITH AMPLE MOISTURE PLUME 
NOTED AS BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NE. 
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 24N. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS NOTED W OF THE 
FRONT...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SE IN TO THE NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 26N W OF 
138W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE 
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS ENHANCING STRONG SW 
WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO 
INCREASE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EAST OF 120W...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EVIDENT MAINLY N OF 20N WITH MOISTURE 
BEING ADVECTED AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH NE ACROSS
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS REMAINDER OF AREA MOSTLY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY SINKING AIR IS KEEPING CONVECTION 
RATHER SUPPRESSED. ONLY EXCEPTION IS A MOISTURE PLUME FROM
THE ITCZ CONVECTION NOTED ABOVE BEING USHERED NORTHWARD IN 
SLY WINDS FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 90W-99W.

$$
AGUIRRE

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