Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 02:27:13 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 4.2N6 86.3E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.2N6 86.3E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 4.2N6 86.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 4.5N9 85.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 4.9N3 85.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 5.8N3 86.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 7.8N5 87.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 4.2N6 86.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY EST-
IMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CYCLING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 02B IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR.
TC 02B IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD AFTER 12 HOURS
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO TRACK POLEWARD AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3,
162100Z0, 170300Z1 AND 170900Z7.//

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