Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 06:27:11 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 171225

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 28/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/17 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0S / 52.1E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/18 00 UTC: 22.2S/51.9E, MAX WIND=020KT.
24H: 2005/02/18 12 UTC: 21.9S/51.8E, MAX WIND=020KT.
36H: 2005/02/19 00 UTC: 21.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=020KT.
48H: 2005/02/19 12 UTC: 21.9S/51.0E, MAX WIND=020KT.
60H: 2005/02/20 00 UTC: 22.0S/50.5E DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/02/20 12 UTC: 22.2S/49.8E DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTRE HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY SINCE LAST NIGHT.
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS UNFAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO  TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS
, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING IN THE
SOUTHWEST,
 PROGRESSIVELY FILLING UP.
CLOCKWISE  CIRCULATION IS VERY WEAK, QUITE DISORGANIZED, THIS THE
LAST
WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT REINTENSIFICATION.=

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