Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 18:18:23 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 210016

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 13/9/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9  (EX-DAREN)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/21 AT 0000 UTC :
16.4S / 67.8E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.5 /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 040   SE: 070   SO: 070   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/21 12 UTC: 16.7S/65.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/01/22 00 UTC: 17.0S/62.6E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/01/22 12 UTC: 17.3S/60.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/01/23 00 UTC: 17.9S/58.1E, MAX WIND=020KT.
60H: 2005/01/23 12 UTC: 18.5S/56.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2005/01/24 00 UTC: 19.5S/54.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG NORTHERLY TO
WESTNORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SINCE THE END OF LAST NIGHT AND LLCC
IS
FULLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTWESTERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. DRY
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE TO REINTENSIFICATION.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS MAKE THE RESIDUL VORTEX TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, IN THE VICINITY OF MASCARENES ISLANDS, FILLING
IT UP
.=

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