Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 10:27:09 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 091626
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...3N78W  8N113W  11N122W  6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 
5N88W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 120W 
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF 
AREA WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 33N130W.  MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE...DRY AIR...S OF 20N W OF 125W. 
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRES CENTER AT 15N123W WITH TROUGH TO 
22N123W INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH. COLD 
FRONT ENTERS AREA FROM 32N131W TO 26N140W.  

E OF 120W
JET CORE OF OVER 130 KT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND CENTRAL MEXICO.  DEEP CONVECTION APPROACHING MEXICAN COAST 
LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
MOVES NE AND DECREASES ITS INFLUENCE. 
AT THE SURFACE...

MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGHOUT AREA E OF 115W WITH 
110-120 KT JET STREAM FROM 23N120W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA 
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.  JET ADVECTING ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE 
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
/DRY AIR S OF 20N E OF 105W.  SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSES CONVECTION 
ALONG ITCZ EXCEPT FOR AREA OF SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG ITCZ FROM 
87W TO 91W.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING GULF OF MEXICO TO PUSH 
AIRMASS ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC CAUSING DEVELOPING GALE ON 
PACIFIC SIDE WITHIN NEXT 36-42 HRS.  

MODERATE TO STRONG WIND CONTINUE CROSSING INTO E PAC FROM SW 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE NEXT 36-48 HRS.  MERGING SWELLS WITH TEHUANTEPEC GALE 
TO INCREASE SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY. 

$$
WALLY BARNES

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