Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 14:28:26 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (TIM) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z4 --- NEAR 16.0S7 109.5E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 109.5E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 16.9S6 108.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 17.6S4 106.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 18.1S0 105.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 18.6S5 104.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 109.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
231730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER A WELL
DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 13S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TO MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 231351ZJAN2005 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 231400) NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z5 AND 242100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  12S (ERNEST)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//

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