Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 00:15:06 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 310613

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 10/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/01/31 AT 0600 UTC :
16.6S / 65.7E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/2.0 /W  0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/31 18 UTC: 17.3S/64.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/01 06 UTC: 18.0S/63.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/01 18 UTC: 18.6S/61.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/02 06 UTC: 19.4S/60.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/02/02 18 UTC: 20.5S/59.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
72H: 2005/02/03 06 UTC: 21.5S/57.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5, CI=2.0-
THE CENTRE PREVIOUSLY FOLLOWED IS NOT DEFINED ANYMORE ON THE LAST VIS
IMAGERY. MAIN CENTRE OF THE CIRCULATION IS RELOCATED IN THE
NORTH-WEST,
FAR AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.
THIS SYTEM LOOKS LIKE A MONSOON LOW, WITH WEAK WINDS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE,
 AND WINDS OF THE OREDER OF 20/25 KT WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS; IN THE
NORTH, IN THE MONSOON FLOW, AND EAST OF 70E.
SYSTEM IS BADLY ORGANIZED, AND INTENSITY IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANALYZED.=

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