Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 15:02:01 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122151ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- NEAR 13.6S0 164.2W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 164.2W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 15.0S6 163.5W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 16.8S5 162.5W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 18.9S8 161.9W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 21.2S5 161.7W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 164.0W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
380 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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