Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 11:23:58 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4
84.5E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0 84.0E2, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3
57.7E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6 57.2E4, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM NORTH
OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZING
CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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