Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Vii And Metarea Viii (s)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 06:15:56 -0600

WTIO22 FMEE 141215
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/02/2005
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY    14/02/2005 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 1003 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4S / 57.0E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES  EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT:          QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING
UP TO
 400 NM IN THE  EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS
OF
THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS  IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN
  SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/02/15 AT 00 UTC:
21.8S / 55.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/02/15 AT 12 UTC:
22.6S / 53.3E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS CONSTRAINTED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MODERATE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED 70 NM EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF
THE
 CENTER.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND PASSING THIS NIGHT ABOUT 30 NM SOUTH OF
REUNION
ISLANDS COAST AND THEN TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITHIN 36 TO 48
HOURS IN A UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RE-INTENSIFY.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES.

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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