Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 15:11:02 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- NEAR 15.7S3 111.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 111.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 15.8S4 108.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 16.0S7 106.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 16.0S7 103.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 16.2S9 100.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 110.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
171730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EAST OF THE
DECREASING CONVECTION. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND
172100Z1.//

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