Subject: FIJI: Part 01

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 15:43:00 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 122100
PART 01

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 12/2133 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1S 160.3E
AT 121800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN
60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER KERRY'S LLCC DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. NORTHERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVED FURTHER EAST. DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE AND SHEAR PATTERNS
YIELDING DT OF 3.5, T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS. KERRY HAS REMAINED SLOW
MOVING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
SOUTHWEST STEERING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE RIDGE.  GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, COMBINED WITH
REDUCED SHEAR WILL ALLOW KERRY TO REINTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. GLOBAL MODELS AND
CONSENSUS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 23.2S 159.5E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 24.2S 157.8E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :

END PART 01

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.