Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 11:50:13 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072251ZJAN2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZJAN2005//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B
IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
NEAR 3.9N2 84.1N3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N5 83.7E7, APPROXIMATELY
380 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE CYCLIC OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
MORE DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE AND RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES
A BROADER LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 072300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
        (1) AT 080600Z4 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (SALLY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 13.9S3 100.2E3, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 080900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
        (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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