Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 18:21:05 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 230020

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 18/8/20042005
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/23 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9S / 42.5E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.5/5.0 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 150   SE: 120   SO: 090   NO: 120
50 KT       NE: 080   SE: 070   SO: 050   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/23 12 UTC: 26.3S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT.
24H: 2005/01/24 00 UTC: 28.9S/48.0E, MAX WIND=060KT.
36H: 2005/01/24 12 UTC: 31.9S/52.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/01/25 00 UTC: 34.8S/57.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/01/25 12 UTC: 38.1S/63.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ERNEST IS GOING ON WEAKENING, THE EYE  HAS DISAPEARED, AND CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE DISYMETRIC.
IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM, WHITH STRONG WINDS MAINLY PRESENT IN THE
EASTERN
PART (DUE TO THE MOVMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHITIH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST).
IT SHOULD GOES ON TRACKING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE EVACUATE
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH.=

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