Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 03:06:19 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z2 --- NEAR 5.1N6 86.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.1N6 86.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 5.1N6 86.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 5.0N5 85.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 5.0N5 85.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 5.2N7 85.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 6.0N6 85.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 5.1N6 86.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 150530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING IN-
TENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO REMAIN REL-
ATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR. TC 02B
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORE-
CAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. WEAK INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 48 AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK POLEWARD AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 17 FEET. REFER
TO WWIO30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z2, 152100Z9, 160300Z0 AND 160900Z6.//

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