Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 02:35:18 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z7 --- NEAR 14.3S8 121.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 121.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 14.0S5 121.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 14.0S5 122.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 14.3S8 122.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 14.7S2 122.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 121.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. PREVIOUS POSITION
FIXING CORRELATED TO DEEP COVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. 010425Z2 TRMM, 010108Z0 SSMI,
312243Z5 SSMI AND 312228Z8 AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES SUPPORT
THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF THE LLCC OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
AND THE RELOCATED WARNING POSITION. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO
INITIALLY TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND TURN SOUTHWARD
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE LOCATED IN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING
THE STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL STEERING ENVIRONMENT
IS WEAK. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS DO NOT INITIALIZE
WELL ON THIS SYSTEM. NOGAPS HOLDS NO CIRCULATION ON THIS
SYSTEM WHILE UK MET FORECASTS TC 07S TO BE QUASISTATIONARY
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NCEP GFS DEPICTS A FASTER
TRACK NORTHEAST THEN SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT OF UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODEL DEPICTED STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TC 07S IS REDUCED.
TC 07S SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 AND 020900Z1.//

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