Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 19 Feb 2005 01:57:05 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 020
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z6 --- NEAR 28.0S0 160.6W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.0S0 160.6W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 30.6S9 161.3W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 33.4S0 162.1W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 36.0S9 162.9W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 38.0S1 161.8W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 28.7S7 160.8W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH
OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190530Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CUR-
RENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMA-
TED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. BETWEEN TAUS 36
AND 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND BEGIN
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 48, TC 19P SHOULD BECOME A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 AND 200900Z1.//

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