Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 18:16:28 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 030014

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 21/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/02/03 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3S / 60.6E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/03 12 UTC: 21.4S/58.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/02/04 00 UTC: 23.2S/57.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2005/02/04 12 UTC: 26.2S/56.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/05 00 UTC: 29.2S/56.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/02/05 12 UTC: 33.0S/58.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2005/02/06 00 UTC: 36.6S/62.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, CONVECTION KEEPS UP NEAR THE
CENTRE BUT IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED ; TRANSITION INTO A CLASSICAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN INTENSIFICATION SEEMS NOW UNLIKELY BUT CAN
NOT
YET BE COMPLETELY EXCLUDED. PREDICTED MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWERED.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT
24
HOURS, BEFORE TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARDS IN THE TROUGH.=

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