Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 02:59:33 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122151ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z0 --- NEAR 13.0S4 164.5W6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 164.5W6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 14.0S5 163.5W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 15.4S0 162.9W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 17.0S8 162.5W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 18.5S4 162.2W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 164.2W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, AND HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY EST-
IMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER MODERATELY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 17 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 122151ZFEB2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 122200) NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND
140900Z4.//

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