Subject: Indian-S: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 06:13:19 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 281211

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 8/11/20042005
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11  (EX-FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/28 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.0S / 44.0E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.5 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 050   SE: 050   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/29 00 UTC: 24.6S/44.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2005/01/29 12 UTC: 23.5S/44.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2005/01/30 00 UTC: 22.0S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/01/30 12 UTC: 20.8S/41.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2005/01/31 00 UTC: 19.5S/40.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.
72H: 2005/01/31 12 UTC: 18.4S/39.2E DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 ; CI=2.5
THE LLCC CENTRE IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED, OVERLAND, SOUTHEAST OF
TOLIARA.
 CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINS ARE NOW OVERLAND, EAST OF THE LLCC.
FELAPI IS
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERLAND DURING 12 TO 24 HOURS, BEFORE CURVING
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST, SPEEDING UP
AND
INTENSIFYING S
LIGHTLY.=

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