Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 21:35:07 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 070334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 6N95W 6N110W 8N130W 8N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
98W-103W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS W OF
138W.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A FAST PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND LOWS CONTINUES TO
TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST JUST N OF
THE AREA WITH OCCASIONAL WEAKENED BOUNDARIES SWINGING S OF 32N.
AN OCCLUDED GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 430 NM WSW OF SAN
FRANCISCO AND ITS COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N127W
25N134W 24N140W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT A SECOND
BOUNDARY IS JUST NOW SAGGING S OF 30N BETWEEN 130W-140W. THE
UPPER FLOW IS MOSTLY FLAT OVER THE FRONT...HOWEVER...AND THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT IS N OF 32N MOVING
TOWARDS SRN CALIFORNIA. FARTHER S...A BROAD UPPER TROF IS
AMPLIFYING ALONG A LINE FROM 27N110W 16N130W WITH FLOW
CONFLUENCE PRODUCING A SMALL POCKET OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
16N-23N BETWEEN 122W-135W. INCREASED UPPER MOISTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS 140W BETWEEN 4N-20N TOWARDS A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 7N114W...WHICH IS FUNNELING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN BAJA PENINSULA INTO NRN MEXICO.

E OF 110W...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROF STRETCHES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SWWD PAST THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 10N100W EQ105W AND IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NICARAGUA.
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 98W-103W
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE TROF AXIS BUT OTHERWISE DEEP CONVECTION IS
NON-EXISTENT. A FEW TSTMS HAVE ALSO BEEN POPPING OVER WRN
COLOMBIA WITH SOME OCCASIONALLY MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PANAMA
HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH MODERATE
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

$$
BERG

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