Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 06:36:12 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 301235

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 7/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/01/30 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7S / 69.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/31 00 UTC: 16.7S/67.4E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/01/31 12 UTC: 17.5S/65.8E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2005/02/01 00 UTC: 17.9S/64.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2005/02/01 12 UTC: 18.3S/63.2E, MAX WIND=045KT.
60H: 2005/02/02 00 UTC: 18.6S/61.9E, MAX WIND=050KT.
72H: 2005/02/02 12 UTC: 19.4S/60.4E, MAX WIND=055KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING WITH CONVECTION WHICH IS ORGANIZING ABOVE
THE
LOW LEVEL CENTRE.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS.=

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