Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 031351zfeb2005//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 08:08:29 -0600

WTPS21 PGTW 031400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 031351ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
215 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S2 169.5W1 TO 17.6S4
163.2W2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 031130Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 168.1W6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTH
EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
168.1W6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 168.1W6, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041400Z9.//

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