Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 00:15:43 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 210614

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 11/8/20042005
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/21 AT 0600 UTC :
16.2S / 42.0E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.5 /S  0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 100   SE: 120   SO: 100   NO: 080
50 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 250 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/21 18 UTC: 18.3S/41.2E, MAX WIND=065KT.
24H: 2005/01/22 06 UTC: 20.8S/40.8E, MAX WIND=080KT.
36H: 2005/01/22 18 UTC: 23.2S/40.7E, MAX WIND=090KT.
48H: 2005/01/23 06 UTC: 24.8S/41.5E, MAX WIND=070KT.
60H: 2005/01/23 18 UTC: 26.2S/42.8E, MAX WIND=060KT.
72H: 2005/01/24 06 UTC: 27.5S/44.7E, MAX WIND=050KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0, CI=4.5-
ERNEST IS A SMALL SYSTEM, WITH A ROUGHLY 300 KM DIAMETER.
ERNEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS
IN
THE CHANNEL IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
JUAN DE NOVA SHOULD BE DIRECTLY CONCERNED IN THE NEXT HOURS.=

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