Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 14:18:52 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 14.2S7 122.4E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 122.4E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 14.5S0 123.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 15.0S6 124.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 15.9S5 126.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 122.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS LAND AS IT IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
BUFFER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS BRINGING THE
SYSTEM PERIODS OF UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, ENOUGH POLEWARD DISPLACEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN SUPPORTING
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE CONFIDENCE
IN FORECAST TRACK HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY NOW THAT MOST
OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED ON THE SYSTEM. ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL IN LESS
THAN 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5.//

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