Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 18:25:59 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 210024

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 10/8/20042005
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/21 AT 0000 UTC :
15.0S / 42.7E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.5 /W  0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 150   SE: 120   SO: 100   NO: 100
50 KT       NE: 050   SE: 050   SO: 050   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/21 12 UTC: 16.8S/41.8E, MAX WIND=070KT.
24H: 2005/01/22 00 UTC: 18.7S/41.3E, MAX WIND=065KT.
36H: 2005/01/22 12 UTC: 20.7S/41.2E, MAX WIND=060KT.
48H: 2005/01/23 00 UTC: 22.7S/41.3E, MAX WIND=050KT.
60H: 2005/01/23 12 UTC: 24.6S/41.7E, MAX WIND=045KT.
72H: 2005/01/24 00 UTC: 26.8S/43.0E, MAX WIND=040KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0, CI=4.5-
ERNEST IS A SMALL SYSTEM, WITH A ROUGHLY 300 KM DIAMETER.
ERNEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS
IN
THE CHANNEL AND INTENSIFYING REGULARY.
JUAN DE NOVA SHOULD BE DIRECTLY CONCERNED IN THE NEXT HOURS.=

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