Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 02:34:33 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072121ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SALLY) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 13.9S3 100.2E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 100.2E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 14.3S8 98.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 14.3S8 97.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 14.5S0 95.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 15.2S8 93.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 99.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (SALLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 080530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
A 072338Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS AND 080341Z6 AMSU PASS DEPICT A SMALL
WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AN
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES EXISTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 09S THAT WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 072130Z JAN 2005
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 072130). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//

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