Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A16 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 14:15:43 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 141800    
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A16 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/2012 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [940hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 160.8W
AT 141800 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE
SOUTH. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90
MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. 

NANCY IS SHOWING SMALL SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD
FILLED AND RAGGED, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH CMG SURROUNDING BLACK EYE
YIELDING DT=6.0. MET=5.5 AND PAT=5.0. FT BASED ON DT:
T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS, ASSISTED BY AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. CIMMS INDICATES A WEAKENING SHEAR
TENDENCY ABOUT NANCY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF
NANCY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
FURTHER WEST CONTINUES TO SHARPEN AND MAY RETROGRESS SLIGHLTY, AND
THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE NANCY TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR A
WHILE, DESPITE THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND. MOVEMENT HAS TURNED
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BUT A SOUTHWARD TURN IS FORECAST DUE TO A
MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH OLAF TO THE NORTHWEST. 

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 17.7S 159.6W MOV SSE 15KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 20.0S 158.8W MOV S 10KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 22.0S 158.9W MOV SSW 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 23.4S 159.6W MOV SSW 5KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 150200 UTC. 

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.