Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 18:20:44 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 150020

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 18/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/15 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 55.8E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/15 12 UTC: 22.3S/55.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/02/16 00 UTC: 23.3S/53.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/16 12 UTC: 24.4S/52.7E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/17 00 UTC: 24.6S/52.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/17 12 UTC: 25.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/18 00 UTC: 25.4S/50.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKEN, SO DEEP
CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED, BUT ALWAYS LOCATED EAST OF THE CENTRE.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND PASSING THIS NIGHT ABOUT 30 NM SOUTH OF
REUNION
ISLANDS COAST.
AND THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITHIN 36 TO 48
HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IN A
MORE
AND MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RE-INTENSIFY DUE TO RATHER STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO THIS SCENARIO AT SHORT RANGE.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES.

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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