Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 20:34:52 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z6 --- NEAR 10.7S8 175.1W4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 175.1W4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 12.2S5 173.3W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 14.1S6 171.2W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 16.0S7 169.1W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 18.4S3 166.8W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 23.2S7 162.3W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 174.6W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARN-
ING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102, 115 AND 127 KNOTS. TC 19P IS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
HAS INCREASED SPEED DUE TO THE ENHANCED GRADIENT INDUCED
BY THE STEERING RIDGE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 19P CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD EQUATORWARD
DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
SLOWLY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150900Z5, 151500Z2, 152100Z9 AND 160300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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