Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A14 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 01:57:10 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 140600    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 14/0753 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [950HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 163.4W
AT 140600 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTH.
POSITION FAIR BASED GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, INCREASING TO
110 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES
OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. 

NANCY HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS,
RESULTING IN A SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN WITH AN IRREGULAR BUT WARM
EYE. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH COLD MEDIUM GRAY
SURROUNDING MG EYE YIELDING DT=6.5. MET=5.0 AND PAT=5.5. FT BASED ON
PAT, BREAKING CONSTRAINTS: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS. NANCY REMAINS IN A
REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ASSISTED BY TWIN OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO
NORTH AND SOUTHEAST, AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. WEAK
NORTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND NANCY IS
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER. RECENT MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TOWARDS THE
EAST BUT EXPECTED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT SOON DUE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
AND SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH SOME TURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH OLAF TO THE NORTHWEST. 

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 15.4S 162.8W MOV SSE 05KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 16.9S 162.5W MOV S 10KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 18.5S 162.1W MOV S 10KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 20.2S 161.7W MOV SSE 10KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 141400 UTC. 

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