Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 08:21:43 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 311200    
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 31/1419 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA CENTRE [992hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 176.8W
AT 311200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 TO 40
KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS
FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE. 

DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTED OVER CENTRAL AREA PAST 8 HOURS AND
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED. LLCC, PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED DURING THE DAY SLIPPED
UNDER DEVELOPING CDO. OVERALL ORGANISATION INCREASED MARKEDLY. COLD
CONVECTIVE BAND TO EAST WRAPPING WITH MORE CURVATURE AROUND CDO.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND NORTH BUT RESTRICTED TO WEST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS YIELDS T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST EXPECTED
TO HELP STEER LOLA GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON GRADUAL WEAKENING WHILST TREKKING SOUTH AND SLOWING.   

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 24.3S 175.5W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 27.0S 175.0W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 29.0S 175.4W MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 30.6S 176.2W MOV SW AT 8 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LOLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
312030 UTC.

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