Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B18 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 02:59:16 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 160600    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B18  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 16/0856 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 171.1W
AT 160600 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15
KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 125
KNOTS, DECREASING TO 115 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES
OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.  

OLAF APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY WITH SOME LOSS OF EYE
DEFINITION IN RECENT EIR IMAGES. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE TOPS ENCIRCLING
THE EYE REMAIN VERY COLD [<-80C]. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE
PATTERN WITH AN LG EYE IN CDG SURROUND YIELDING DT=6.5. MET=PT=6.5,
BUT CI HELD AT 7.0: T6.5/7.0/D0.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF
STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND OUTLFOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RELATIVE
SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AS OLAF ACCELERATES SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK
WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD AS OLAF INTERACTS
WITH THE REMNANTS OF NANCY.      

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 14.9S 169.2W MOV SE 12KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 17.1S 168.0W MOV SE 10KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 18.8S 166.8W MOV SE 8KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 165.6W MOV SE 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.  

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
161430 UTC. 

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