Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 2005 03:37:36 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 200937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N78W 6N89W 5N94W 10N123W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 89W TO 95W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 120W...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS FOUND FROM 15N TO 25N ACROSS THIS AREA OF THE E PACIFIC. JUST 
N OF THE AREA...RATHER VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 33N132W AND MOVING ESE AS IT TRIES TO DIG A 
BIT FURTHER SE. VORTEX IS HELPING TO INDUCE 70-90 KT MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL JET WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 29N130W TO 
32N143W. 

AT THE SURFACE...1000 MB GALE FORCE LOW CENTER LIES N OF THE 
AREA WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC 
WATERS ALONG 30N130W TO 23N140W. BAND OF OVERCAST CLOUDS DENOTES 
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR AND THE ONSET OF 25 KT NLY 
WINDS NW OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH SUN BEFORE 
WEAKENING AS ITS NORTHERN PORTION REACHES THE UPPER BAJA 
PENINSULA ON MON.

FROM 120W TO 100W...
BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC NEAR 
8N113W TO NEAR 20N100W INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. UPSTREAM OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS...ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE 
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO EASTERN TEXAS ALONG A 
60-80 KT SUBTROPICAL JET CROSSING THIS AREA.

E OF 100W...
IMPRESSIVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FOUND EMBEDDED IN STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE NEAR 11N95W. SE OF THE LOW CENTER...WEAK TO 
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN A SMALL AREA OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA FROM 4N TO 9N 
BETWEEN 87W TO 92W. ASIDE FROM THIS EQUATORIAL E PACIFIC 
MOISTURE ISLAND...THE REMAINDER OF THIS AREA IS QUITE DRY IN 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

AT THE SURFACE...SHIP REPORTS OVER LAST 12 HOUR SUPPORT 25 KT 
EVENT IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT IN THE 
AREA FROM 8N TO 12N E OF 90W. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
..WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
AS W CARIBBEAN PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER IN THE 
TROPICAL E PACIFIC. 

$$
HOLWEG

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