Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 15:55:36 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 292155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG  5N77W  3N110W  4N130W 
4N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
E OF 80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 84W TO 
90W. 

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W
STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER WELL N OF AREA SW TO 30N120W...18N131W AND 7N134W.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG AND W OF TROUGH AXIS COVERS ENTIRE AREA 
W OF 128W.  STRONG JET CORE OF OVER 110 KT ON E SIDE OF TROUGH 
ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO S HALF OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO AND INTO S TEXAS.  FAIRLY ZONAL WIND 
CONDITIONS ON CREST OF VERY BROAD RIDGE E OF AREA DOES NOT 
PROVIDE SOURCES OF UPWARD FORCING OF MOISTURE AT THIS TIME.  
RIDGE REMAINS WELL ANCHORED IN POSITION NOT PERMITTING UPPER 
TROUGH TO INTRUDE INTO AREA AND DISTURB PRESENT CONDITIONS. 

AT THE SURFACE...WITH SO MUCH DRYNESS ACROSS E PAC...ITCZ LACKS 
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  MOST OF MOISTURE 
ADVECTION REMAINS N OF CONVERGENCE ZONE.  

E OF 100W
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST AND CONFLUENT WIND COMBINE TO MAINTAIN 
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 100W.  DRYNESS BROKEN BY PATCH OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM 3N TO 9N E OF 95W WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ SUPPLIES SOME UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF COSTA RICA-HONDURAS BORDER.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WIND ACROSS CARIBBEAN BASIN SPILL OVER 
INTO E PAC THROUGH PANAMA...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO GAPS WHILE 
SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES STRONG WIND ACROSS 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HR 
BEFORE ABATING ALL TOGETHER.  

$$
WALLY BARNES

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