Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 12:14:18 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 111812

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 10/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/11 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3S / 56.1E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/12 06 UTC: 18.7S/56.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/12 18 UTC: 19.1S/57.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/13 06 UTC: 20.2S/57.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/13 18 UTC: 21.2S/56.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/02/14 06 UTC: 22.1S/56.1E, MAX WIND=035KT.
72H: 2005/02/14 18 UTC: 22.5S/54.9E, MAX WIND=040KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0-
THE SYSTEM GETS DIFFICULTIES TO INTENSIFY, CONVECTION REMAINS
FLUCTUATING
 IN COVERAGE AND STRENGHT.
SITUATION IS UNCERTAIN, AND NWP ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ; EITHER THE
SYSTEM
 REMAINS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND GETS DIFFICULTIES TO INTENSIFY (ARPEGE),
EITHER IT TRACKS POLEWARDS AND SLOWLY INTENSIFIES (UKMO AND ENSEMBLE
FORECAST AT ECMWF). THIS LAST SCENARIO HAS BEEN CHOSEN.=

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