Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 11:57:22 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 221755

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 17/8/20042005
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/22 AT 1800 UTC :
23.0S / 42.4E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.0/5.5 /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 941 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 150   SE: 120   SO: 090   NO: 120
50 KT       NE: 090   SE: 070   SO: 050   NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/23 06 UTC: 25.0S/43.8E, MAX WIND=075KT.
24H: 2005/01/23 18 UTC: 27.1S/45.9E, MAX WIND=060KT.
36H: 2005/01/24 06 UTC: 30.0S/49.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/01/24 18 UTC: 33.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/01/25 06 UTC: 36.1S/60.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ERNEST IS NOW WEAKENING, THE EYE  BECOMES COLDER INTO A MORE
DISYMETRIC
CONVECTION.
IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM, WHITH STRONG WINDS MAINLY PRESENT IN THE
EASTERN
PART (DUE TO THE MOVMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WHITIH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST).
IT SHOULD GOES ON TRACKING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE EVACUATE
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH.=

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