Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 08:13:41 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z9 --- NEAR 12.0S3 174.1W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 174.1W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 13.4S8 172.3W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 15.1S7 170.4W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 17.2S0 168.7W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 19.6S6 167.1W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 23.7S2 164.7W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6 173.6W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH-
WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
151130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND A 150553Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY TIGHT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN IT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LESS FAVORABLE OUT-
FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 43 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z9, 160300Z0, 160900Z6 AND 161500Z3. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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