Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 22:14:30 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 010414
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...3N77W  6N105W  6N120W  8N130W 
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 126W TO 137W. 
 
DISCUSSION...
W OF 95W...
DEEP LAYER POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM SW 
CONUS THROUGH 30N108W TO 16N140W.  UPPER LEVEL JET CORE NOW 
DECREASING TO 100 KT ADVECTS ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ACROSS E PAC BASIN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND GULF COASTAL 
STATES.  SOME WATER FINALLY AVAILABLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ FROM 120W TO 130W.  MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE N OF TROUGH AXIS E OF 135W.  
  
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGE WITH HIGH PRES CENTER AT 31N132W 
PRODUCING STRONG WIND AROUND ITS PERIPHERY WHICH INCLUDES MOST 
FORECAST WATERS N OF 7N W OF 115W. 

E OF 95W...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERED VIRTUALLY 
ENTIRE AREA E OF 95W ALL THE WAY THROUGH CARIBBEAN AND NW COAST 
OF SOUTH AMERICA.  

AT THE SURFACE...CONTINUED PASSAGE OF WINDS ACROSS GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL EXTEND TO GULF OF PANAMA NEXT 24-48 HRS AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER SW N ATLC.  FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS WRN GULF OF 
MEXICO LIKELY TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WIND OVER GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN NEXT 72 HRS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES

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