Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 19:58:04 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 070000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 07/0153 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [990hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 166.7E
AT 070000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 HRVIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION.  CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

A CDO HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS ALTHOUGH MIDDLE LEVEL DRY
AIR HAS MAINTAINED A CLEAR SLOT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A LARGE
BANDING FEATURE PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF THE CDO. A WELL DEFINED LLCC
IS EVIDENT ON 2154 UTC MICROWAVE IMAGE. SST AROUND 30C. CDO DIAMETER
1.2 DEGREES YIELDS DT 0F 3.0. PT AND MET ALSO 3.0. DVORAK ANALYSIS
T3.0/3.0PLUS/W0.5/24HRS. TC KERRY IS MOVING WSW NORTH OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO NORTH BY UPPER TROUGH,
BUT ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW AS TC MOVEMENT IS PARALLEL TO
UPPER WIND FLOW. TC KERRY IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE VANUATU ISLAND GROUP AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN WSW MOVEMENT FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 17.2S 164.0E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 18.2S 161.9E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.6S 160.6E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 18.9S 159.9E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
070800 UTC.

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