Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 04:16:50 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 161016
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 4N100W 4N110W 5N120W 6N130W 6N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA
..AND IS LOCATED N OF 21N W OF ABOUT 127W WITH ITS AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 32N131W ALONG 24N135W TO 16N140W WITH ITS 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N122W 
THEN TO 28N123W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES ALONG 
22N127W 16N133W TO 10140W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED NW OF THE FRONT. 
WEAKENING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 136W-139W 
DUE TO A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE 
DROPPING ESE 25-30 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION. 
GENERALLY...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT DRY 
SINKING AIR IS SEEN OVER THE AREA DEFINING THE TROUGH...EXCEPT N 
OF 27N W OF 126W WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH 
THE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES 
WITH RATHER DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY LIMITED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SEEN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO EXCEPTIONS. ONE IS WITHIN 
500 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 32N118W TO 18N133W WHERE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHWESTERN 
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. OVERCAST MID AND 
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THIS MOISTURE. THE OTHER EXCEPTION 
IS WHERE THE PREVIOUS ITCZ CONVECTION HAS RELEASED MOISTURE IN 
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS BEING ADVECTED NE TOWARDS THE 
AREA FROM FAR EASTERN MEXICO TO NICARAGUA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY 
OF CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE. SCATTERED LOW 
CLOUDS WITH LARGE AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND IN THE RIDGE 
AREA. EXCEPT ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE

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