Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 12:52:46 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 051830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051830Z-060600ZFEB2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050752ZFEB2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051821ZFEB2005//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 050600Z1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.8S3 163.8W8, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA,
AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 050900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2
139.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S0 140.0E5, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 050833Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONG NORTHER-
LY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SUR-
FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES-
SURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. SEE REF B (WTPS22 PGTW 051830) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFI-
CANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 2.B.(1) TO GOOD AND
UPDATED PARA 2.A.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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