Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 16:30:33 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 042230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 4N77W 5N100W 8N120W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 127W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA EXTENDS NE ALONG AXIS 25N145W 
35N135W AND IS COLLAPSING E OVER THE NW CONUS. THE ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW DOMINATES THIS DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 135W WITH 
UPPER MOISTURE SPILLING ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS. ALONG 135W THE 
UPPER FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER 
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 27N118W. THE ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
135W-105W...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A BROAD RIDGE WITH AN 
AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 32N135W TO 20N118W.

AN UPPER WIND MAXIMA EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THIS CIRCULATION...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 22N140W 15N125W 
TO 25N105W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH 
CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CONUS. 

THE UPPER FLOW ALSO SPLITS NEAR 15N112W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N114W TO 20N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 11N112W TO 
21N108W. THE UPPER JET TAPS DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS 
CONVECTION AND ADVECTS IT NE ALONG THE WIND MAXIMA ACROSS 
CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND W TEXAS.

TO THE E OF 100W...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 9N90W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS NW TO NEAR 28N95W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED 
AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...NLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS INCLUDING THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND 
FONSECA AND PANAMA AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 
SIMILARLY...A MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE IN 30 HOURS...AND CONTINUE 
TO BLOW AT NEAR 25 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON

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