Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B15 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 08:30:54 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 151200    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B15  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 15/1428 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [935HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 173.9W
AT 151200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND
EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES
OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE,
WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.  

CONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND LLCC HAVE BECOME EXTENSIVE AND CONTINUE TO
COOL. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH A BLACK EYE IN CMG
SURROUND YIELDS T6.0/6.5/S0.0/24 HRS. DT, PT, AND MET ALL AGREE AT
6.0. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. HOWEVER,
ACCORDING TO CIMMS, SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST 12 HOURS
DUE TO A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AND MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BUT OLAF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER DUE TO
REDUCED DIFFLUENCE AND INCREASING SHEAR.     

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 13.4S 172.0W MOV SE 10KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 15.5S 170.3W MOV SE 15KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 17.9S 168.7W MOV SE 15KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC NEAR 19.7S 167.1W MOV SE 10KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.  

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
152030 UTC. 

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.