Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 10:14:28 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 311614
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 31 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W  5N82W  6N119W  9N132W  9N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS AREA FROM 30N128W TO 12N140W. WEAK
SUBTROPICAL JET CORE CARRIES 50-60 KT SW WIND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTED INTO S CALIFORNIA AND N BAJA.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF FORCING AGENT BUT SOME
MIGHT DEVELOP WELL INLAND.  DRY SLOT FROM 12N TO 21N W OF 128W
ALONG TROUGH AXIS.

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK COLD FRONT FROM 30N126W TO 28N135W ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH.
FRONT BECOMING DIFFUSE NEXT 24 HRS BY LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AS
MOST ENERGY HAS GONE WELL N OF AREA.  LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG
ITCZ AS UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS MINIMIZE IT.  MINOR
CONVECTION NEAR 10N130W WHERE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SPLIT UPPER WINDS CREATING SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

E OF 110W...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 103W ACROSS MEXICO INTO EPAC WITH
BROAD RIDGE E OF AXIS. VERY DRY MID/UPPER ATMOSPHERE WITHIN 240
NM OF AXIS AND ENTIRE S MEXICO REGION PLUS CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE NE AND E WINDS CROSSING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ENTER
EPAC WATERS N OF 8N AND E OF 100W AND MERGE IN MODERATE TO LARGE
SWELLS ALONG N OF 5N E OF 110W.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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