Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 09:26:28 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 071525
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG LINE 5N77W 6N110W
8N140W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SPARSE WITH ONLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 7.5N139.5W.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A FAST PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND LOWS CONTINUES TO
TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST JUST N OF THE AREA. WEAKENING FRONTS
WITH THESE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE S OF 32N. AN OCCLUDED GALE
CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM WSW OF SAN FRANCISCO AND ITS COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 30N124W 23N135W. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATES THAT A SECOND BOUNDARY IS SAGGING S OF 30N
BETWEEN 127W-138W. THE UPPER FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL OVER THE FRONT
AND THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION JUST N OF 32N MOVING
TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FARTHER S...A BROAD UPPER TROF IS
AMPLIFYING ALONG A LINE FROM 24N105W 18N130W WITH FLOW
CONFLUENCE PRODUCING A SMALL POCKET OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 115W-125W. INCREASED UPPER MOISTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS 140W BETWEEN 4N-20N TOWARDS A LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 7N114W...WHICH IS FUNNELING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS NEWD INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO.

E OF 110W...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROF STRETCHES FROM BELIZE SW TO 9N102W AND
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 92W BUT OTHERWISE DEEP CONVECTION IS
NON-EXISTENT. A FEW TSTMS HAVE ALSO BEEN POPPING OVER WRN
COLOMBIA WITH SOME MOVING TO THE COAST. THE GAP WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PANAMA HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH MODERATE WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.

$$
LL

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