Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2005 21:30:59 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 270330
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...3N78W 7N86W 5N97W 7N112W
6N135W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 106W AND 110W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS W OF THE AREA HAS FLATTENED
AND EXPANDED FURTHER E TO ALONG 119W/120W. SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND GRIDDED OUTPUT FROM NWP MODELS INDICATE A POWERFUL
130-150 KT JET CONTINUES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND S
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH N OF THE AREA ALONG 141W. THE JET RUNS
ALONG 32N140W 32N130W TO 28N120W. JET IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EWD TO ALONG 125W N OF 27N. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DRYNESS IS OBSERVED BY SATELLITE S OF 27N W OF 120W
IMPLYING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO
25N133W...BECOMING A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N140W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY S OF 20N W OF 120W.

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA E OF 119W/120W.
THERE ARE ACTUALLY TWO TROUGHS WITHIN THIS AREA. THE FIRST...A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INTERIOR CALIFORNIA SEWD
TO THE SEA OF CORTEZ NEAR 27N111W AND IS SWINGING NEWD AT 15 KT.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER NW MEXICO N OF
25N ALONG 110W. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N113W SSEWD TO
A DIFFUSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 7N111W. DIFFLUENT
FLOW E OF THIS CIRCULATION CENTER IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
106W AND 110W. UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG 20N112W THROUGH 30N107W
INTO THE SW CONUS IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MARKED BY
OVERCAST MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUDS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 107W...AND ALONG 110W

E OF 105W...
EAST OF 105W SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WESTERN FLANK OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS AREA IS
CLOUD FREE WITH MARKED SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS. ONLY BROKEN LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS ARE INDICATED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

AT THE SURFACE...WIND CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN ISTHMUS WITH 20 KNOTS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND ALSO
THE GULF OF PANAMA.

$$
COBB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.