Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 20:05:47 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 060030
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 4/13/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13

2.A POSITION 2005/02/06 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6S / 57.0E 
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/06 12 UTC: 22.9S/56.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/02/07 00 UTC: 23.7S/55.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2005/02/07 12 UTC: 24.4S/54.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2005/02/08 00 UTC: 25.2S/53.5E, MAX WIND=045KT.
60H: 2005/02/08 12 UTC: 25.8S/52.0E, MAX WIND=040KT.
72H: 2005/02/09 00 UTC: 26.2S/50.4E, MAX WIND=035KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.
CONVECTION ALWAYS FLUCTUATING, HAS INTENSIFYED DURING THE LAST HOURS.
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK  SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER SLOWLY, AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.

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