Subject: FIJI: Part 02

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 02:14:47 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 080600
PART 02

4.5. DVORAK ANALYSIS
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. TC KERRY IS MOVING WSW TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH IN NW
SECTOR, BUT ENHANCED IN SE SECTOR BY DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
250 HPA TROUGH. REDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALLOWS FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TC KERRY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEAKEN IN THE 12-48 HOUR
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST AROUND 29C. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST SLOWING WSW MOVEMENT THEN EITHER A TURN TO W OR WNW
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OR RECURVATURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 18.8S 159.3E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 19.1S 158.9E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 19.2S 158.5E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 19.5S 158.1E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC KERRY AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO BRISBANE'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS.

END PART 02 OF 02

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