Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 00:15:20 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 170613

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 1/8/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8

2.A POSITION 2005/01/17 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 57.6E
(NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/17 18 UTC: 09.6S/56.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/01/18 06 UTC: 09.9S/55.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/01/18 18 UTC: 10.3S/54.5E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/01/19 06 UTC: 10.7S/53.4E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2005/01/19 18 UTC: 11.1S/52.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/01/20 06 UTC: 11.6S/51.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
JUST SOUTH OF ITCZ, THE SYSTEM GOT RAPIDELY ORGANIZED LAST NIGHT.
UPPER
LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS FAVOURABLE, WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE, WEAK
VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WITH A MODERATE MONSOON FLOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND A
MODERATE TRADE WINDS FLOW IN THE SOUTH, CONVECTION CONSOLIDATED,
GIVING T
=CI=2.0.
NWP DO NOT ANALYZE CORRECTLY THE LOW ; THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES.=

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