Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 00:13:38 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 300612

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 6/12/20042005
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12

2.A POSITION 2005/01/30 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 70.3E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/30 18 UTC: 15.9S/68.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/01/31 06 UTC: 16.7S/67.1E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2005/01/31 18 UTC: 17.6S/65.8E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2005/02/01 06 UTC: 18.4S/64.8E, MAX WIND=040KT.
60H: 2005/02/01 18 UTC: 19.0S/62.7E, MAX WIND=045KT.
72H: 2005/02/02 06 UTC: 19.6S/62.6E, MAX WIND=050KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.

WIDE AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WHITH
SEVERAL
POSSIBLE CENTRES. THE MAIN ONE IS ESTIMATED UNDER CONVECTION, WICH IS
CONSOLIDATING AS THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS IMPROVING.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SLOWLY
DEEPEN.

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY AT PRESENT ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS
.=

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