Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 21:34:37 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 230334
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG AXIS ALONG 7N78W 2N83W
4N95W 4N105W 8N117W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

OTHER CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12.5N
TO 16N BETWEEN 107.5W AND 111.5W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITH AXIS ALONG 140W. TROUGH IS MOVING EAST AT 30 KT. VERY DRY
AIR IS NOTED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N TO 28N.
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 23N140W AND MOVING SE
20-25 KT. OVERCAST MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. NARROW...BUT
AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N128W TO
21N133W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND
WITHIN THE RIDGE IN AN AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO 22N W OF 128W.
THE RIDGE IS PINCHED BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE W AND AN MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 29N115W. THE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO DRIFT WWD. ASSOCIATED MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER SWWD TO
THE ITCZ NEAR 125W. UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX/JET OF 60-80 KT
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 13N120W 18N110W INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD
OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN CONUS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
FOUND WITHIN AREA FROM 20N TO 30N FROM 127W TO 135W. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

E OF 100W...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA DOMINATES THIS
AREA. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE INDICATIONS OF A NWWD EXTENSION OF
THIS ANTICYCLONE OVER THE AREA INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOME
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR ANOTHER GALE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
COBB

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