Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 11:39:41 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4
39.8E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4S7 42.6E2, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED BUT SMALL
AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EVIDENT IN QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.5N6 84.8E0,
APPROXIMATELY 415 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. EARLIER
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT FLOW. QUIKSCAT IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED OVER THE EQUATOR.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW BUT MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ES-
TIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE SECTION//

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