Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A17 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 20:05:33 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 150000    
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A17 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 15/0202 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [940hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 159.8W
AT 150000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE
SOUTH. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9/10 EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS CLOSE
TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE. 

NANCY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND
RAGGED. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME COLDER. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WHITE SURROUNDING BLACK EYE
YIELDING DT=5.0. MET=4.5 AND PAT=5.0. FT BASED ON DT:
T5.0/6.0/S0.0/24HRS. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTORS. A
SHARPENING TROUGH FROM THE WEST IS ADVECTING INCREASING SHEAR OVER
NANCY AND THE WEAKENING TREND FOR THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
MOVEMENT IS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BUT A SOUTHWARD TURN IS FORECAST
TONIGHT, DUE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH OLAF TO THE
NORTHWEST. 

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 19.1S 158.8W MOV SSE 15KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 21.4S 158.8W MOV S 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 23.7S 159.4W MOV SSW 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 25.6S 159.8W MOV S 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 150800 UTC. 

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