Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 17:55:02 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 012353

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 21/11/20042005
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 11  (FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/02/02 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.7S / 49.7E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT   NE:       SE: 060   SO: 060   NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/02 12 UTC: 28.5S/49.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2005/02/03 00 UTC: 28.6S/48.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2005/02/03 12 UTC: 27.9S/48.2E DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
STRONGERWINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF EX-FELAPI
DUE
TO THE GRADIANT, BUT ARE NOW WEAKENING.
A NEW TROUGH IS ARRIVING SOUTH, THEN A NEW CELL OF HIGH PRESSIONS IS
QUICKLY COMING.
  EX-FELAPI IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR WEAKENING.=

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