Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 12:21:16 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 211819

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 15/9/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9  (EX-DAREN)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/21 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0S / 62.8E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/2.0 /W  1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/22 06 UTC: 17.8S/60.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/01/22 18 UTC: 18.4S/58.2E, MAX WIND=020KT.
36H: 2005/01/23 06 UTC: 19.5S/56.6E, MAX WIND=020KT.
48H: 2005/01/23 18 UTC: 20.8S/55.4E, MAX WIND=020KT.
60H: 2005/01/24 06 UTC: 23.2S/54.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/01/24 18 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 AND CI=2.0
DAREN UNDERGOES A MODERATE  NORTHNORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE CENTER
REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
CONVECTION
. THE SYSTEM IS MEETING DRY ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE TO
REINTENSIFICATION.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND WEAKENING.
NWP
 AGREE TO KEEP IT TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS.
STRONGER WINDS EXIST FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT
EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=

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