Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 11:29:29 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/161800Z-171800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161352ZJAN2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161353ZJAN2005//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 161200Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA,
HAS DRIFTED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 161200Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S1
86.8E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1S8 85.8E, APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0S9
61.5E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S6 60.8E4, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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