Subject: FIJI:

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 14:55:12 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 061800

PART 01

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 06/2011 UTC 2005 UTC.

**CORRECTION FOR FORECAST WINDS**
TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [990HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 168.4E
AT 061800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION.  CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  WINDS ABOVE
33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS WEAKENED AS MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR WAS
DRAWN INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS AND A LARGE BANDING FEATURE
PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF BUT SEPARATE FROM THE SYSTEM CENTRE. WELL
DEFINED LLCC EVIDENT ON 1343 UTC AQUA-1 MICROWAVE IMAGE. SST AROUND
30C. BANDING FEATURE CLOSE TO CENTRE WITH WRAP OF 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS DT 0F 3.0. PT AND MET ALSO 3.0. DVORAK ANALYSIS
T3.0/3.0/W0.5/12HRS. TC KERRY REMAINS IN A WEAK UPPER [250 HPA]
TROUGH AREA NORTH OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER OUTFLOW IS GOOD
IN EASTERN SECTORS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. TC KERRY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER ISLANDS IN VANUATU
DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY REINTENSIFY ONCE CLEAR OF THE
ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN WSW MOVEMENT FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :

END PART 01

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