Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B24 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 14:10:02 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 171800    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B24  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 17/2007 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 165.8W
AT 171800 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS
AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30
MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.  

OLAF INTENSIFYED SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY IRREGULAR ALTHOUGH
STILL WARM. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH A LG EYE IN
WHITE SURROUND YIELDING DT=6.0, MET=6.0 AND PT=6.0; FT BASED ON DT:
T6.0/6.5/W0.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RELATIVE SHEAR IS LOW AS OLAF
MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, INCREASING SHEAR SOUTH OF 20S AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SOME
VARIATIONS IN SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD.      

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 21.0S 164.3W MOV SE 12KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC NEAR 22.9S 163.6W MOV SE 10KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC NEAR 24.8S 162.7W MOV SE 15KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC NEAR 27.1S 160.0W MOV SE 20KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.  

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
180230 UTC. 

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