Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2005 15:44:40 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 252144
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS...3N77W 5N100W 8N110W 8N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 7N FROM 104W TO 108W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N FROM 109W TO
119W.

OTHER CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE
OF LINE 25N115W 15N114W.

..DISCUSSION...
WEST OF 105W...
EXPANSIVE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 155W/160W
HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA WEST OF 125W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED WEST OF 125W...WITH AN AREA OF VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INDICATED S OF 20N W OF 134W. 130-135 KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CONTINUES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
EXTENDS FROM 32N140W 29N135W TO 23N125W. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR
IN THIS AREA EXCEPT FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM
SE OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 30N130W TO 23N140W. TWO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPEAR TO BE IN PHASE. THE FIRST...ALONG
32N122W SSEWD TO NEAR 20N121W IS SWINGING ENEWD 15-20 KT. THE
SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N120W SSEWD TO 5N118W AND HAS
NARROWED TO VIRTUALLY A SHEAR AXIS. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF BOTH
TROUGHS HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 109W AND
119W...AND FURTHER NORTH WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
25N115W 15N114W. MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT IS ADVECTING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE
SEA OF CORTEZ AND NW MEXICO.

EAST OF 105W...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW COVERS MOST OF
THE AREA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS FLOW
REGIME IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM YUCATAN SWD
TO GUATEMALA MOVING E 15 KT.

AT THE SURFACE...QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED 20-30
KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THUS AN END TO THE GALE
EVENT. ELSEWHERE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BUT
ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE RAPIDLY NEXT 12 HRS.

$$
COBB

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