Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 04:03:15 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 191002
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 2N79W 4N100W 3N110W 5N125W
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS
BETWEEN 103W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
AXIS W OF 138W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 150W APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NEWD AT 10-15 KT OVER A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE WELL N OF THE AREA ALONG 125W. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS SWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
30N130W TO 20N135W. LARGE AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
EXISTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND IS BEING ADVECTED NNEWD BY A 50-60 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET. MAIN FEATURE WITHIN THIS AREA IS A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE NOTED ABOVE.
THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NRN MEXICO NEAR 30N105W SWWD
THROUGH 26N115W TO A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR
17N122W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 125W. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS W OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
FROM THE ITCZ/10N TO 23N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. AN UPPER LEVEL
JET WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 75-90 KT IS LOCATED JUST E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 100W.
ALSO SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
130W.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE.

E OF 105W...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC SW FLOW IS FOUND EAST OF 105W AS A
RESULT OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. A WEAK
IMPULSE ALONG 85W HAS SHIFTED THE FLOW MORE TO THE WEST IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AREA IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 103W AND 107W.
AT THE LOW LEVELS STRONG WIND CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SWELLS FROM THIS AREA OF WIND WILL SPREAD S OF
EQUATOR TO NEAR 8S REACHING GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AS WELL.

$$
COBB

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