Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 03:18:38 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 240918
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 3N78W 5N95W 6N109W
7N125W 5N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N95W AND
6N129W.

OTHER MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 8N100W AND FROM 16N106W TO NEAR
THE MEXICAN COAST AT 18N104W.

..DISCUSSION...
WEST OF 110W...
SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH HAS CLOSED OFF A CENTER
TONIGHT NEAR 30N130W. THE CENTER IS MOVING ENE 15 KT. THE NOSE
OF A 165 KT ZONAL JET IS WORKING IT'S WAY INTO THE NW CORNER OF
THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH DIVING SE BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CLOSED LOW CENTER ALONG 130W
AND IS MOVING EASTWARD ABOUT 15 KT. AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH IS ROTATING E TO 120W. A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED
NEAR THE UPPER LOW AT 32N130W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S AND
SW TO NEAR 16N140W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

A UPPER LOW NEAR NORTHERN BAJA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED
INLAND AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER AT 31N113W MOVING
N VERY SLOWLY. THE LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE ENTIRE WESTERN US. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER
LOW SE OVER WESTERN MEXICO.

EAST OF 110W...
SWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO. A WEAK 75 KT JET IS CROSSING
NORTHERN MEXICO AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET.

AN OPEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW FROM COLOMBIA TO SE TEXAS.
SWLY UPPER WINDS CURVE ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE RIDGE. AN
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS LIFTING N OVER HONDURAS AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOLLOWING FROM THE SW.
ANOTHER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED FROM THE GALAPAGO ISLANDS E
TO 85W WHERE STRONG HIGH LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE UPPER WINDS IS
EVIDENT PRODUCING VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH NO CONVECTION.

LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
SUGGESTING THAT STRONG WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BLOW THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SSMI AND QUIKSCAT
DERIVED WINDS INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KT NOW BLOWING
OVER THE GULF IN A 60 NM WIDE SWATH S AND SW TO NEAR 14N96W.

$$
RRG

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