Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 18:09:45 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 140008

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 16/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/14 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2S / 57.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/14 12 UTC: 21.6S/56.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/02/15 00 UTC: 22.0S/55.2E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/15 12 UTC: 22.5S/53.1E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/16 00 UTC: 22.8S/51.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/16 12 UTC: 22.9S/50.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/17 00 UTC: 22.9S/50.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A WEAK TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR, CONVECTION IS
LOCATED
 EAST OF THE LLCC, RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTRE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REMAINS FLUCTUATING WITH A STRONG DIURNAL CYCLE.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE LAST FEW
HOURS,
 NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES.
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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