Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 12:12:42 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 211811

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 13/8/20042005
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/21 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0S / 41.9E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.5/4.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 150   SE: 150   SO: 150   NO: 150
50 KT       NE: 050   SE: 050   SO: 050   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/22 06 UTC: 19.9S/41.6E, MAX WIND=080KT.
24H: 2005/01/22 18 UTC: 21.9S/41.7E, MAX WIND=085KT.
36H: 2005/01/23 06 UTC: 23.8S/42.6E, MAX WIND=085KT.
48H: 2005/01/23 18 UTC: 25.4S/43.9E, MAX WIND=075KT.
60H: 2005/01/24 06 UTC: 26.6S/45.5E, MAX WIND=060KT.
72H: 2005/01/24 18 UTC: 27.8S/48.2E, MAX WIND=050KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5+
ERNEST KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
AN
EYE IS WELL DEFINED AGAIN SINCE 1630 UTC. ERNEST IS A SMALL SYSTEM
(ROUGHLY 300 KM OF DIAMETER). THE SYSTEM IS NOW ABOUT 120 KM
SOUTHWEST OF
 JUAN DE NOVA. ERNEST IS EXPECTED TRACKING SOUTHWARDS THEN
SOUTHEASTWARDS
 AND IT WOULD P
ASS BETWEEN EUROPA ISLAND AND MALAGASY COAST TOMORROW  SATURDAY
BETWEEN
1800 AND 2200 UTC.=

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