Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 21:03:00 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 070330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/070330Z-071800ZFEB2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070152ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 070000Z7 TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S1
116.3E1, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 070300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8
116.8E6, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.5S4
58.2E5 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4S0 56.3E4, APPROXIMATELY 194 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
HOWEVER IT IS BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BOUNDED TO THE WEST BY A REGION OF MODERATE TO
HIGH SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXI-
MUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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