Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 12:21:56 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 191820

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 10/9/20042005
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9  (DAREN)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/19 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3S / 73.8E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 MOINS /D  1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 060   SE: 090   SO: 090   NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/20 06 UTC: 16.6S/70.7E, MAX WIND=040KT.
24H: 2005/01/20 18 UTC: 17.6S/67.5E, MAX WIND=045KT.
36H: 2005/01/21 06 UTC: 18.2S/64.4E, MAX WIND=050KT.
48H: 2005/01/21 18 UTC: 18.6S/61.9E, MAX WIND=050KT.
60H: 2005/01/22 06 UTC: 19.0S/59.2E, MAX WIND=045KT.
72H: 2005/01/22 18 UTC: 19.8S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-.
DAREN SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS QUICKLY ON THE
NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS.
WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, BUT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS A DRY ENVIRONMENT, AND MONSOON FLOW IS WEAK.
POTENTIAL
FOR INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED.=

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