Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2005 20:55:16 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- NEAR 19.2S2 159.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 159.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 19.7S7 158.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 20.2S4 158.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 20.7S9 158.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 21.1S4 157.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 159.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 102 KNOTS AND A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND
NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOW DEEP INFLOW OF COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL, DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNI-
FICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z8 AND 120300Z6.//

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