Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 00:22:20 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 240621

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 23/8/20042005
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/24 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.0S / 49.3E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.5 MOINS /W  1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 200   SE: 160   SO: 140   NO: 140
50 KT       NE: 020   SE: 020   SO: 020   NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/24 18 UTC: 32.5S/53.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2005/01/25 06 UTC: 35.8S/58.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2005/01/25 18 UTC: 39.2S/64.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/01/26 06 UTC: 42.5S/71.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ERNEST SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARDS RATHER QUICKLY, AND IS TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL VERY SHORTLY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS WEAKENING, BUT
WINDS
REMAIN STRONG, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE GRADIENT
EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, ADDED TO
THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. NEAR
 GALE EXTENSION IS GETTING WIDER WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.=

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