Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Vii And Metarea Viii (s)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 08 Feb 2005 18:06:36 -0600

WTIO22 FMEE 090005
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 09/02/2005
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 2/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 09/02/2005 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 1003 HPA
POSITION:           18.1S / 56.2E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:          STATIONARY 0 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING
UP TO
 180 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS NEAR THE CENTRE,
LOCALLY
 REACHING 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
18.3S / 56.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/02/10 AT 00 UTC:
18.5S / 55.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CLUSTER ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT SHOW A REAL ORGANIZATION,
AND
HAS A FLUCTUATING ACTIVITY. THE CLUSTER IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL
 CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION.
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IS NOT GOOD.
SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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