Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 23:06:43 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 050427
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 3N77W 6N86W 8N120W 8N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM
120W TO 132W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 120W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 129W HAS ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER NEAR 9N127W WHERE GOOD DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ENHANCES
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AXIS FROM 120W TO 132W.  MODERATE JET
CORE OF 70-90 KT ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO FORECAST AREA BUT WITH
NO TRIGGER TO PROMPT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

AT THE SURFACE...ONLY ITCZ ABOVE ACTIVITY MERITS ANY MENTION.

E OF 120W...
WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS AREA FROM 120W TO
100W WITH MAIN AXIS ALONG 112W.  TROUGH LIFTING NWD FORCED BY
CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 37N116W BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER SW
CONUS AND EXTEND THROUGH NW MEXICO.  VERY STRONG JETSTREAM...
WELL OVER 150 KT...SHOULD SPLIT FURTHER UPSTREAM AND COULD
ENHANCE UPWARD FORCING AS DIFFLUENT PATTERN MOVES INTO PLACE
OVER SW CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 22N SHOULD
KEEP CENTRAL MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA UNDER DRY AIRMASS.

PLENTY OF AIR SPILLS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FUNNELING STRONG
WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO...FONSECA AND TEHUANTEPEC GAPS CONVERGING
OVER SE CORNER OF EPAC BASIN INCREASING SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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