Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 12:22:06 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 021821

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 20/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/02/02 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1S / 61.4E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/03 06 UTC: 20.6S/59.7E, MAX WIND=035KT .
24H: 2005/02/03 18 UTC: 21.7S/58.0E, MAX WIND=040KT .
36H: 2005/02/04 06 UTC: 23.1S/56.4E, MAX WIND=050KT .
48H: 2005/02/04 18 UTC: 25.6S/55.3E, MAX WIND=040KT .
60H: 2005/02/05 06 UTC: 28.1S/54.5E, MAX WIND=040KT .
72H: 2005/02/05 18 UTC: 30.3S/54.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER,
BUT
 IS NOT ORGANIZED. NEVERTHELESS THIS CONFIGURATION GIVES ROOM FOR
POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A CLASSICAL TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER SLOWLY AT
SHORT RANGE BEFORE RECURVING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS AT LATER RANGE.=

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