Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert/170921zjan2005//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 03:46:42 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 170930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/170921ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2S0 84.9E1 TO 10.4S5 81.8E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
170900Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4
84.5E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S8
85.8E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4 84.5E7, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INC-
REASING CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CEN-
TER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180930Z1.//

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