Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 15:34:58 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 152200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/152200Z-161800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACTMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151952ZJAN2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151953ZJAN2005//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 151800Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B WAS LOCATED
NEAR 4.6N0 86.4E8, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, AND HAD DRIFTED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 152100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 151800Z5, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4S0 116.5E3, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 152100)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5S0 117.5E4 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING IN PARA 2.A.(1).
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9S4
89.5E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3S9 88.5E1, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY RE-
VEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE EST-
IMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS RE-
MAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IN PARA 2.A.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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