Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2005 12:04:41 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9S7
55.8E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S6 53.9E7, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATEL-
LITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT INTO THE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A THIN AXIS OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER THE LLCC IS BOUN-
DED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD BY REGIONS OF MODERATE WIND SHEAR. MAXI-
MUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. THE JTWC HOMEPAGE WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FROM APPROXIMATELY 150200Z7
TO 150830Z7FEB DUE TO MAINTENANCE.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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