Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 19:39:48 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 010000    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 01/0138 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA CENTRE [994HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 175.6W
AT 010000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 312034Z SSMI DATA. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
35 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE. 

LLCC PARTLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO JUST SOUTHEAST.
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS
WARMING. DRY AIR INTRUSION REMAINS EVIDENT ABOUT THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WITH SUPRESSED CONVECTION. SYSTEM APPEARS SHEARED AND IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] RIDGE WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REMAINS GOOD IN OTHER
SECTORS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WITH WRAP .35 PATTERN
YIELDS T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST EXPECTED TO HELP
STEER LOLA GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS. GLOBAL MODEL CONCENSUS GENERALLY
AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING WHILST TRACKING LOLA INITIALLY SOUTH BEFORE
CURVING WESTWARDS AND SLOWING.   

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 24.8S 175.4W MOV S AT 07 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 25.5S 176.3W MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 25.1S 177.9W MOV WNW AT 08 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 24.5S 179.6W MOV W AT 05 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LOLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
010830 UTC.

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