Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 20:14:39 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 116.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 116.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 16.9S6 116.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 17.2S0 116.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 17.0S8 115.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 17.0S8 115.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 116.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS SUSTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 062218Z9 SSMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A PAR-
TIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS, TC 17S WILL RESIDE IN A VERY WEEK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING SUBTRO-
PICAL RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF TC 17S WILL RISE SLOWLY AS NO DECENT
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 061751Z FEB 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 061800) NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.//

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