Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 00:13:17 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 160611

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 23/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/16 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6S / 52.3E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/16 18 UTC: 22.6S/51.1E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/17 06 UTC: 22.7S/50.6E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/17 18 UTC: 22.7S/50.2E, MAX WIND=020KT.
48H: 2005/02/18 06 UTC: 22.6S/49.8E, MAX WIND=020KT.
60H: 2005/02/18 18 UTC: 22.2S/49.4E, MAX WIND=020KT.
72H: 2005/02/19 06 UTC: 21.9S/48.9E, MAX WIND=020KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE WESTNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
AND
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE MAIN
CLUSTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WESTWARDS,
SLOWING
DOWN AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.=

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