Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 00:21:15 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 290616

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 3/12/20042005
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12

2.A POSITION 2005/01/29 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2S / 74.3E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/29 18 UTC: 12.7S/73.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/01/30 06 UTC: 14.4S/71.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/01/30 18 UTC: 15.8S/69.8E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/01/31 06 UTC: 17.8S/68.4E, MAX WIND=040KT.
60H: 2005/01/31 18 UTC: 18.8S/67.6E, MAX WIND=040KT.
72H: 2005/02/01 06 UTC: 19.3S/66.3E, MAX WIND=050KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY AT PRESENT ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS
.
SEVERAL CENTERS MAY EXIST. THE MENTIONNED CENTER IS THE MAIN ONE,
ESTIMATED TO RELOCATED NEAREST OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW BUT DO NOT DEEPEN IT QUICKLY. FORECAST TRACK
IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILBLE MODELS.

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