Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 21:56:47 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 060356
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 1N79W 6N94W 5N104W 9N113W 
7N121W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM 
OF AXIS W OF 122W. 

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA HAS MEAN AXIS N TO S ALONG 140W 
WITH A CREST ALONG 32N143W 35N137W 30N130W. ITS ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW DOMINATES THIS DISCUSSION AREA N OF 8N W OF 128W WITH UPPER 
MOISTURE SPILLING E ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION N OF 
22N W OF 116W. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC N OF 10N ALONG 
118W IN RESPONSE TO A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS NW TO 
SE ALONG 32N119W 14N111W. A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
27N108W IS SHIFTING NE WITH TIME AND RAPIDLY LOSING IDENTITY. 

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STILL DOMINATES THE AREA 
N OF 8N BETWEEN 118W AND 103W...MODERATE TO STRONG DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM 8N TO 21N BETWEEN 
19W AND 110W WITH A 90 NM WIDE BAND ALONG 20N111W TO 30N108W. 

AT THE SURFACE... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N117W 30N123W 
31N131W...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 32N135W TO 21N111W.

THE UPPER FLOW EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH THE FLOW SPLITTING NEAR 10N108W...
WITH ONE BRANCH TURNING CYCLONICALLY NE CONTINUING ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CONUS. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG 10N121W 23N107W. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE...AND OCCASIONALLY ISOLATED STRONG...CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N110W 19N104W. THE BRANCH OF THE 
UPPER FLOW/JET THAT CONTINUES NE IS ADVECTING THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION ACROSS MEXICO WITH THE PLUME 
SPREADING OUT OVER MUCH THE CENTRAL CONUS.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
ESTIMATED OVER COLOMBIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 22N E OF 94W AND IS 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...NLY 20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS INCLUDING THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND 
FONSECA AND PANAMA AND THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE 
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS 
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE 
BY SUNRISE SUN. 
 
$$
NELSON

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