Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 20:37:51 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- NEAR 18.3S2 159.2E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 159.2E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 18.4S3 158.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 18.5S4 158.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 18.6S5 157.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.8S7 157.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 159.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
295 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF POUM, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A 11 NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE. TC 08P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. TRACK IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN SLOW AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
WEAK. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN AN
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION.
MODEL DEPICTED STEERING ENVIRONMENTS ARE IN VERY POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH 3 CLUSTERS
REMAINING. UKMET EGRR AND NCEP GFS STEERING THE SYSTEM
NORTHWEST, TOWARD THE EQUATOR, WITH THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE ALTERING TO THE RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. GFDN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
THE TWO RIDGES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOGAPS TRACKS
THE SYSTEM POLEWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING TRACK SPEED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH CONSIDERATION OF THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z9 IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4.//

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