Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 06:17:04 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 131215

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 15/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/13 AT 1200 UTC :
20.4S / 58.6E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/14 00 UTC: 22.0S/58.4E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/02/14 12 UTC: 22.9S/56.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/15 00 UTC: 23.6S/54.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/15 12 UTC: 23.7S/52.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/16 00 UTC: 23.8S/51.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/16 12 UTC: 24.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-.
FLUCTUATING CONVECTION WITH STRONG DIURNAL CYCLE.
A CLUSTER IS ALWAYS LOCATED EAST TO THE CENTRE.
THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARDS OVER THE LAST  HOURS, NPW ARE AGREE
TO
TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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