Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 14:59:31 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 131800    
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/2054 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [985hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 164.1W
AT 131800 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 03 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
131550 UTC TMI IMAGE AND GOES9/10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE,
INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100
MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND
WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. 

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED DURING PAST 6 HOURS WITH TIGHTLY
WRAPPED BANDS AND EXPANDING AREA OF COLD TOPS. NORTHWEST VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED, ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. DVORAK
ASSESSMENT BASED ON MET=3.5 AND PT=3.5:  T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS. NANCY
REMAINS SOUTH OF A 250 HPA OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL
RETURN FLOW AND ALSO GOOD IN THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAM ENTRANCE REGION. OUTFLOW IS STILL RESTRICTED TO THE WEST.
NANCY LIES IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND FUTURE
SOUTHWARD TRACK. 

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 14.2S 163.8W MOV SSE 05KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 15.3S 163.3W MOV SSE 05KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 15.8S 163.3W MOV S 08KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 18.2S 163.4W MOV S 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 140200 UTC. 

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