Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Viii (s)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 12:20:46 -0600

WTIO20 FMEE 021819
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/02/2005
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/02/2005 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12 1000 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1S / 61.4E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST
) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING
UP
TO 300 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS FAR FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/02/03 AT 06 UTC:
20.6S / 59.7E, MAX WIND = 35 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/02/03 AT 18 UTC:
21.7S / 58.0E, MAX WIND = 40 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER,
BUT
 IS NOT ORGANIZED. NEVERTHELESS THIS CONFIGURATION GIVES ROOM FOR
POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A CLASSICAL TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER SLOWLY AT
SHORT RANGE BEFORE RECURVING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS AT LATER RANGE.=

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