Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 14:57:57 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- NEAR 5.0N5 87.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.0N5 87.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 5.0N5 86.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 5.0N5 86.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 5.1N6 86.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 5.3N8 86.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 6.1N7 86.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 5.0N5 87.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS REMAINED
RELATIVELY QUASISTATIONARY WITH A MEASURED MOTION OF WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH GOOD OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN
THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SITS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR. TC 02B
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OUT OF
INDIA. TC 02B IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PULSE IN INTENSITY
AS NEITHER THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOR CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS
ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION PAST WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THE APPROACH OF THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROF LATE MAY WILL SEE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THEREBY
INCREASING THE INTENSITY BY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OF NOGAPS, UKMET AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL OF
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PHNC FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 141321ZJAN05 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO22 PGTW 141330 ) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150300Z9, 150900Z5, 151500Z2 AND 152100Z9.//

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