Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 07 Feb 2005 00:27:01 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 070625

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 9/13/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13

2.A POSITION 2005/02/07 AT 0600 UTC :
26.3S / 54.7E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 050   SE: 090   SO: 090   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/07 18 UTC: 26.9S/53.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.
24H: 2005/02/08 06 UTC: 27.1S/51.4E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2005/02/08 18 UTC: 27.4S/49.5E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/02/09 06 UTC: 27.9S/48.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/02/09 18 UTC: 28.3S/46.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/10 06 UTC: 28.8S/46.0E, MAX WIND=020KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM PATTERN (SHEAR PATTERN ASSOCIATED TO WEAK CONVECTION) AND
ASSOCIATED INTENSITY ACCORDING DVORAK TECHNIQUE DO NOT CORRESPOND TO
ESTIMATED FORCE WINDS (30/35 KT, OR EVEN 40 KT IN THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM
, DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES).
SO THIS WARNING DOES NOT APPLY DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=

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