Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2005 00:21:18 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 100619

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 5/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/10 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9S / 54.0E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/10 18 UTC: 17.8S/53.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/02/11 06 UTC: 18.3S/53.2E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/11 18 UTC: 19.1S/52.9E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/12 06 UTC: 20.5S/52.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/02/12 18 UTC: 22.0S/52.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/13 06 UTC: 23.5S/53.1E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, CONVECTION NOW EXISTS
ABOVE THE LLCC, BUT IT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND POORLY ORGANIZED.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AT SHORT RANGE.
AT MEDIUM RANGE, FORECASTED TRACKS OF NWP MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENTS.
IT
SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS TOWARD THE TROUGH, MORE OR LESS EAST OR WEST
OF
MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS.

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT ACTUALLY JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.