Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 03 Jan 2005 09:42:55 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 031542
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 5N95W 7N110W 8N130W 7N135W 8N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60-90 NM OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 134W AND 138W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM
OF THE ITCZ E OF 80W.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERED THE AREA N OF 16N.
VIGOROUS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 34N128W WAS DIVING SSEWD AT
20-25 KT. COLD AIR ALOFT WAS GENERATING AN AREA OF BROKEN
OPEN CELLULAR CUMULUS WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS. 130 KT POLAR
JET WAS DIGGING ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDED
FROM 31N133W SEWD TO NEAR 23N121W. MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT WAS
INDICATED N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. AT THE SURFACE...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 30N120W 25N126W 28N137W. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM A 1012 MB SFC LOW NEAR 28N118W TO 20N120W.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FRONT OVER THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE AT 10-15 KT.

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM 3N83W TO 18N105W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR THROUGHOUT THE
RIDGE. THE DRY CONDITIONS WERE DETRIMENTAL TO ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS AN AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE
ITCZ E OF 80W.

$$
COBB

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