Subject: FIJI:

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 02:17:31 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 060600

PART 01

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 06/0814 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 170.3E
AT 060600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION.  CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS BUT
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.  WINDS
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE CDO AND BANDING FEATURE HAVE WEAKENED SINCE PAST 6 HOURS. LATEST
IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTION BEGINING TO ORGAINISE NEAR LLCC. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AIDED BY DIURNAL
INFLUENCE. LLCC IS JUST NORTH OF DEEP CONVECTION. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY
AIR APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DRAWN INTO NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SST AROUND
30C. DT FROM BANDING FEATURE WITH WRAP OF 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
DT 0F 3.0. PT AND MET SUGGESTS 3.5. FT BASED ON PT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12HRS. UPPER OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTORS. WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE INTERACTION WITH LAND OCCURS AROUND 061800
UTC. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE KERRY SOUTHWEST THEN WEST
SOUTHWEST, WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 15.7S 167.6E MOV WSW AT 14 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

END PART 01

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