Subject: FIJI: Part 02

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 20:11:56 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 080000
PART 02

4.5. DVORAK
ANALYSIS T4.5/4.5MINUS/D1.5/24HRS. TC KERRY IS MOVING WSW TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH IN NW SECTOR, BUT ENHANCED IN SE SECTOR BY DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING 250 HPA TROUGH. REDUCING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ALLOWED FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHED THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. TC KERRY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS A
LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEAKEN IN THE 12-48 HOUR
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST AROUND 29C. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST SLOWING WSW MOVEMENT THEN EITHER A TURN TO W OR WNW
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OR RECURVATURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.6S 160.1E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 19.0S 159.5E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.2S 159.1E MOV WSW AT 0 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 19.4S 158.7E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
080800 UTC.

END PART 02 OF 02

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