Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 20:14:41 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 130000
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/0209 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [987hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4S 160.4E
AT 130000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN
60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR KERRY'S CENTRE HAS WEAKENED, REVEALING AN
EXPOSED LLCC. DRY AIR APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED THE CYCLONE CENTRE AND
TOGETHER WITH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS SUPPRESSED DEEP CONVECTION.
DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC <0.5 DEGREES FROM
DG, YIELDING DT OF 3.0. FT BASED ON DT AND MET, T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.
KERRY HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND BE
AFFECTED BY LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. OUTFLOW STILL GOOD
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. GLOBAL MODELS AND CONSENSUS AGREE ON A
SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 24.3S 159.5E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 25.1S 157.6E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 25.9S 156.2E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 26.9S 155.0E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL ADVISORY ON TC KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130800
UTC.

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