Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 02:42:07 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 250600    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 25/0839 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [985 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 177.7W
AT 250600 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO
EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

TC PERCY HAD CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT DRIFTS
EAST-SOUTHEAST. A WARM SPOT APPEARED ON EIR IMAGERY AT 0126 IMAGERY
BUT HAS FILLED SINCE. PERCY STILL REMAINS AS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
SYSTEM AND BREAKS DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
BANDING FEATURE [WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL] YIELDS
T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS. TC PERCY REMAINS EMBEDDED AND STEERED BY DEEP
MONSOONAL WESTERLY WINDS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. SST
AROUND 31 DEGREE CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL EASTWARD
TRACK AND UK SUGGESTS RAPID INTESIFICATION. A CONCENSUS FORECAST
BASED ON  NOGAPS,UK,JMA AND GFS MAINTAINS THE EAST-EASTWARD TRACK
BEFORE CURVING IT SOUTHEAST BY 261200 UTC. 

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 9.1S 175.8W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 9.4S 174.0W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 9.8S 172.8W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 10.4S 171.6W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AT 251400 UTC. 

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