Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 01:52:25 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 14.3S8 123.6E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 123.6E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 14.8S3 125.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 16.1S8 126.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 124.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (RAYMOND) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120 NM NORTH OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 020530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ORGANIZED AND IMPROVED OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LAND AS IT IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF A BUFFER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER SOME UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HOWEVER, ENOUGH
POLEWARD DISPLACEMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN
SUPPORTING MODERATE INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
LESS THAN 18 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 022100Z5.//

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