Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 09:28:38 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 011528
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 6N100W 5N120W 8N130W 8N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
LONGWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING N PORTION OF AREA WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG
130W. MAIN FEATURE WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA IS A RATHER
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N123W SWD TO
13N129W. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE DIGGING ESEWD E 10-15 KT.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INDICATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...WITH A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND GENERALLY S OF 15N. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW WITHIN A BUILDING RIDGE EXISTS E OF THE TROUGH GENERALLY
OVER AN AREA EXTENDING FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 115W AND THE
TROUGH AXIS. OVERCAST AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
INDICATED WITHIN THE AREA. TRANSVERSE BANDING WITHIN THE CLOUD
FIELD SUGGEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE. SUBTROPICAL JET
WITH 100 KT MAX EXTENDS FROM 22N123W TO S-CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA THEN ACROSS N-CENTRAL MEXICO. ANOTHER 110 KT JET MAX
IS DIVING SE BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A THE SURFACE A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N116W TO 24N130W. FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AS UPPER RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS
MINIMIZE IT.

E OF 110W...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W EXTENDS SSWD OVER HONDURAS INTO EXTREME
EPAC WITH BROAD RIDGE SE OF AXIS. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
IMPLIED DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES ENTIRE REGION WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. MODERATE ELY TRADES OF UP
TO 20 KT SPILLING OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ENTERING EPAC
WATERS N OF 10N AND E OF 90W WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT 48 HR.

$$
COBB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.