Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A21 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 19:56:26 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 160000    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A21 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 16/0152 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [970HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 159.4W
AT 160000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECELERATE. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
GOES9/10 VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF
CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100
MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE. 

W-NW SHEAR STEADILY INCREASING OVER NANCY. OVERALL ORGANISATION
DECREASED PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION WARMING STEADILY. SHEAR PATTERN
WITH LLCC SHEARED ABOUT 30NM FROM DEEP CONVECTION YIELDS DT=3.5,
MET=3.5 AND PT=2.5/3. FINAL T BASED ON DT: T3.5/4.5/W1.5/24HRS.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND DECREASING ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED FURTHER SOUTHWEST UNDER DEEP-LAYER MEAN N/NE FLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAKENING AND AT A SOUTHWEST TRACK.    

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 23.0S 160.5W MOV SSW 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 24.1S 161.8W MOV SW 9KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC NEAR 25.0S 163.2W MOV SW 8KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC NEAR 25.3S 163.9W MOV SW 7KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160800 UTC. 

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