Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 191321z Jan 05//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 07:31:50 -0600

WTXS22 PGTW 191330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191321Z JAN 05//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181821Z JAN 05//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 182030)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 270
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2S3 50.1E6 TO 14.7S2 42.9E5 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191130Z5 INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 49.2E5. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S3
52.9E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 49.2E5, APPROXIMATELY 715 NM NORTH-
WEST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMA-
GERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. ADDITIONALLY, MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT DECOUP-
LING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A
DECREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUS-
TAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201330Z9.//

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