Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 08:33:49 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 071200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 07/1430 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [985HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 163.6E
AT 071200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 1028Z SSMI DATA AND PERIPERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS INCREASING
TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40
MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

SYSTEM CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANISED SINCE PAST 24 HOURS. LLCC
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN LG SHADE. LATEST SSMI PASS SUGGESTS DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.  SST AROUND 30C. THE CURVED
BAND PATTERN WITH 0.9 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS DT 0F 3.5. PT AND
MET ALSO 3.5. DVORAK ANALYSIS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.
TC KERRY IS MOVING WSW NORTH OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER
OUTFLOW GOOD AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW AS TC MOVEMENT IS
PARALLEL TO UPPER WIND FLOW. TC KERRY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER AS IT MOVES WEST AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GLOBAL
MODELS MAINTAIN WSW MOVEMENT FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 18.0S 160.8E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 19.1S 159.8E MOV WSW AT 8 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 19.0S 158.9E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.2S 157.9E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
072000 UTC.

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