Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2005 05:50:48 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 271200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/271200Z-271800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.6S0 77.3E7,
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN
ROTATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER (LLCC). ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW, HOWEVER IT IS BOUNDED TO THE
NORTH BY A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DIVERGENCE IS VERY
FAVORABLE, AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXI-
MUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARA 2.B.(1) AS POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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