Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 11:24:45 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACTMETOCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8N2 87.0N5
REMAINS NEAR 4.8N2 87.0N5, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
RECENT 141320Z1 SSMI PASS REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM; THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH AN OLDER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 140026Z3. ANALYSIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
OFFSET BY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 121.8E2
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8 121.7E1, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTHWEST
OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
WEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY WITH UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8S4 86.9E3
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9S4 89.5E2, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM NORTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BOUNDED BY HIGH VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE
NORTH AND WEAK OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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