Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 00:12:24 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 170611

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 27/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/17 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0S / 52.0E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/17 18 UTC: 22.0S/51.6E, MAX WIND=020KT.
24H: 2005/02/18 06 UTC: 21.9S/51.2E, MAX WIND=020KT.
36H: 2005/02/18 18 UTC: 21.9S/50.5E, MAX WIND=020KT.
48H: 2005/02/19 06 UTC: 22.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=020KT.
60H: 2005/02/19 18 UTC: 22.2S/49.1E DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/02/20 06 UTC: 22.5S/48.4E DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTRE HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY DURING THE LAST HOURS.
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS UNFAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO  TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS
, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING IN THE
SOUTHWEST,
 PROGRESSIVELY FILLING UP.=

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