Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 061751z Feb 05//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 11:43:37 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061751Z FEB 05//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051751Z FEB 05//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
/PGTW 051800)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
120 NM RADIUS OF 16.5S2 117.1E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061430Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8 116.8E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1
116.9E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8 116.8E6, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION,
AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AT 060949Z8, A QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL
ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY DECOUPLED FROM THE REGION OF
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDER-
NEATH THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071800Z6.//

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