Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 18:27:22 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 050025

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 29/12/20042005
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12  (GERARD)

2.A POSITION 2005/02/05 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.9S / 60.0E
(THIRTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/4.0 PLUS /W  0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 220   SE: 300   SO: 250   NO: 150
50 KT       NE: 110   SE: 110   SO: 080   NO: 080

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/05 12 UTC: 34.0S/63.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2005/02/06 00 UTC: 37.5S/67.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2005/02/06 12 UTC: 41.0S/75.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/02/07 00 UTC: 44.0S/83.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/02/07 12 UTC: 47.0S/92.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2005/02/08 00 UTC: 49.0S/#####E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EXTENTION OF WINDS ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AT 1406Z.
GERARD IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER COLL SST.
CONVECTION
HAS STRONGLY WEAKEN DURING LAST HOURS.
IT IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE TROUGH.=

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