Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B5 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 20:06:35 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 130000    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 13/0203 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 178.1W AT
130000 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 

OVERALL ORGANISATION INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. STILL
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LLCC UNDER THICK CIRRUS OUTFLOW. CONVECTION
INCREASING IN ORGANISATION AND COOLING ABOUT THE CENTRAL AREA.
BANDING TO NORTH DEVELOPING AND BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND A DEVELOPING
CENTRE. 08F STILL INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL EFFECTS. CONVECTION WRAPS 0.2
ON LOG10 YIELDING A DVORAK OF T1.5/1.5/D0.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C.
08F REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENT SHEAR IS
MINIMAL AND ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE FURTHER.  STEERING OVER
DEPRESSION IS WESTERLY, AGAINST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE [JMA/UK],
FORECASTING A SOUTHWEST TRACK WHLST NOGAPS, SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON 08F. ALL THREE MODELS FAVOUR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.    

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
130830 UTC. 

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