Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B13 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 19:43:22 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 150000    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B13  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 15/0139 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [930HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 175.0W
AT 150000 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS INCREASING TO
125 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF
THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.  

OLAF HAS PERSISTED IN ITS DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE EYE
REMAINS DEFINED IN RECENT EIR IMAGES, WITH A LG SHADE SURROUNDED BY
CMG. DVORAK ASSESSMENT GIVES DT=PAT=6.5 AND MET=6.0. FT BASED ON DT:
T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS. OLAF LIES IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE NORTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EQUATORIAL NORTHWESTERLIES ARE STEERING THE
CYCLONE SOUTHEAST NOW AND IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM IN THE
OUTLOOK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME MODELS
FORECAST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES WITH OLAF WEAKENING
AND MERGING WITH NANCY IN 3-4 DAYS.   

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 12.2S 173.9W MOV SE 10KT WITH 125KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 13.8S 172.2W MOV SE 10KT WITH 125KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 15.4S 170.5W MOV SE 10KT WITH 125KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 17.7S 168.6W MOV SE 15KT WITH 125KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.  

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
150830 UTC. 

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