Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 10:03:49 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 111603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...4N77W 5N89W 3N101W 10N118W 
7N122W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 85W 
TO 90W.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 130W
RIDGE AXIS POKES INTO THE AREA ALONG 17N140W NE TO 30N133W. AREA 
OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 15N W OF 
130W. RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT AS TROUGH/CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WELL N OF THE AREA PUSHES E TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW 
COAST AND IN DOING SO...IS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AXIS.

FROM 130W TO 105W
RATHER WELL DEVELOPED DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTER IS NEAR 32N120W 
WITH TROUGH AXIS SW TO 10N126W. VERY LARGE AREA OF STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 
118W AND 130W. E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WELL DEVELOPED JET IS 
TAPPING INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE AND 
PUMPING IT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF 
THE SW UNITED STATES. CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE JET 
SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 90 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 
118W TO THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. THIS ENTIRE FEATURE WILL 
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW 
CENTER ALOFT REACHES THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND MOVES 
FURTHER INLAND THROUGH SAT.
 
E OF 105W
AREA OF VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATED MUCH OF THIS AREA IN 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. INDICATIONS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 15N85W 10N105W APPEAR IN BOTH WATER VAPOR 
AND CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED DATA. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS 
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT W TO SW.

MARINE GALE WARNINGS...
CURRENTLY GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BOTH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGIONS. 

LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION SUPPORTS A THIN 
BAND OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING WSW FROM THE COAST. THIS AREA 
OF GALES WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT WITH GALE ENDING SAT NIGHT.

SAME QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTS ALREADY ESTABLISHED GALES IN THE 
TEHUANTEPEC. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THIS EVENT 
LIKELY TO WEAKEN BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$
HOLWEG

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.