Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 11:44:08 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
3.9N2 84.0E2 HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
NEAR 3.7N0 84.7E9, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO,
SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LAST FEW FRAMES OF
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
BEGINNING TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE CENTER. ANALYSIS OF THE
UPPER LEVELS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND
ADEQUATE OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. HOWEVER, MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS STILL EXISTS JUST WEST OF THE FEATURE.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 99.7E5,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0 101.1E3, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED, HOWEVER,
A RECENT 061108Z6 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH
25 KNOTS OF WIND NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IND-
ICATES THAT THE FEATURE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROP-
ICAL RIDGE AXIS, BOUNDED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BY MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE APPROACH OF A TROF FROM THE
SOUTHWEST COULD BRING ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINI-
MUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.