Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 09:16:04 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 011500    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 01/1513 UTC 2005 UTC.

CORRECTION TO DVORAK ANALYSIS...

TROPICAL CYCLONE LOLA CENTRE [995HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1S 175.1W
AT 011200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 010904Z SSMI DATA. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM
NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE. 

DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 1 DEG TO SOUTHEAST OF EXPOSED LLCC. DRY
AIR INTRUSION REMAINS EVIDENT ABOUT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH
SUPPRESSED CONVECTION. SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA]
RIDGE WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND REMAINS GOOD IN OTHER SECTORS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC 0.7 DEGREES FROM DEEP CONVECTION YIELDS
T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST EXPECTED TO STEER
WEAKENING RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF TC LOLA TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING WITH CONSENSUS
TRACK CURVING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AND SLOWING.   

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 25.9S 176.1W MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 25.5S 177.7W MOV W AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 24.9S 179.4W MOV WNW AT 5 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 24.7S 179.6W MOV NW AT 05 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON LOLA UNLESS
IT RE-DEVELOPS AND/OR MOVES BACK INTO NADI'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

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