Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 06:17:26 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 161216

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 24/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/16 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9S / 51.7E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/17 00 UTC: 23.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/17 12 UTC: 24.3S/51.7E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/18 00 UTC: 24.9S/51.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/18 12 UTC: 25.3S/51.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/19 00 UTC: 25.8S/51.6E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/19 12 UTC: 26.1S/51.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE WESTNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
AND
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE MAIN
CLUSTER ; THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IS WEAK. LATEST
SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM RECENTLY SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS AT LOW SPEED,
TOWARDS THE TRO
UGH. STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.=

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