Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 02:13:18 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z1 --- NEAR 14.0S5 163.5W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 163.5W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 14.9S4 162.8W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 16.5S2 162.2W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 19.0S0 161.9W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 21.9S2 162.5W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 163.3W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 140530Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING IN-
TENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90,
102, 115 AND 127 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH, WHICH HAS AIDED IN
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHT-
LY SOUTHWESTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS
WITH TC 19P. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 56 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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