Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 03:29:50 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 050929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 4N77W 8N100W 10N114W 8N129W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS 
NEAR 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
FROM 112W TO 117W. 

DISCUSSION...

W OF 130W...
UPPER RIDGE W OF AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 15N145W 30N143W 39N119W 
DOMINATES THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS AREA. 
THIS RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN...OR BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM LOW CONTINUES TO BUILD THE 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE.

FROM 130W TO 110W...
PERSISTENT AND WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR 
27N114W OVER THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. ENVELOPE OF 
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 12N...WITH WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE 
CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 113W-130W. JET STREAM 
CUTS THROUGH THIS REGION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
CIRCULATION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 20N140W 12N121W BEFORE FLOW 
SPLITS WITH NORTHERN BRANCH PUSHING AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND SW TEXAS. 

E OF 110W...
UPPER HIGH IS 10N90W WITH RIDGE AXIS NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BLANKETS THIS PORTION OF THE TROPICAL E 
PACIFIC OCEAN.

AT THE SURFACE...NLY 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...FONSECA...AND 
PANAMA. CURRENT GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY WITH WINDS DROPPING TO SUB GALE 
FORCE BY SUN MORNING.
 
$$
HOLWEG

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