Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 15:02:51 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 042100    
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 04/2100 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [965hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 165.0W
AT 041800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT AROUND 8 KNOTS AND
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CENTRE EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. 

MEENA HAS INTENSIFIED SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A CDO WITH
BANDING FEATURES PERSISTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS
EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW AND REMAINS GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN CMG SHADE YIELDING DT=5.0,
MET=PT=4.5: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS. EXPECT SYSTEM RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR TO DECREASE AS MEENA ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST,
ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY
FORECASTING SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.   

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 15.4S 163.9W MOV SE AT 7 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 16.6S 163.3W MOV SE AT 7 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 18.4S 162.1W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 21.0S 160.2W MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
050230 UTC.

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