Subject: Pacific-SW: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 21:00:10 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 160300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 011
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z7 --- NEAR 12.2S5 172.6W6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 172.6W6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 13.4S8 169.9W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 15.8S4 167.9W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 18.1S0 166.5W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 20.9S1 164.8W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 24.7S3 161.7W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.5S8 171.9W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 AND 155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SUSTAINED RADIAL OUFLOW AND STRONG DEEP CONVECTION. TC 19P HAS TRACKED EASTWARD OF THE FORECASTED TRACK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN TC 19P AND TC 18P.  TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6, 161500Z3, 162100Z0 AND 170300Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS!
  (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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