Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 06:45:15 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 011241
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 19/11/20042005
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 11  (FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/02/01 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0S / 49.5E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE:       SE: 100   SO: 100   NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/02 00 UTC: 27.6S/49.6E, MAX WIND=030KT .
24H: 2005/02/02 12 UTC: 27.7S/48.6E, MAX WIND=030KT .
36H: 2005/02/03 00 UTC: 28.5S/48.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-FELAPI IS NOW CLOSE TO HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. DUE TO THE
GRADIENT EFFECT, STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
 THE SYSTEM.

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