Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 06:17:15 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 121215

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 13/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/12 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0S / 58.1E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/13 00 UTC: 19.7S/58.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/13 12 UTC: 21.5S/58.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/14 00 UTC: 22.8S/58.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/14 12 UTC: 23.4S/57.1E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/02/15 00 UTC: 23.9S/55.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/15 12 UTC: 24.3S/53.7E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
INTENSITY OF TRHE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNING.
CONVECTION ALWAYS VERY FLUCTUATING, HAS REBUILT , AS A CLUSTER
LOCATED
IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
DEPLACEMENT REMAINS SLOW SOUTHEASTWARDS.=

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