Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2005 12:30:37 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/271800Z-281800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6S0 77.3E7,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7S1 77.0E4 APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER (LLCC). ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW BUT IS BOUNDED TO THE NORTH BY
A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 22.5S9 41.5E0
APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW BUT IS BOUNDED TO THE SOUTH BY
A REGION OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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