Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B27 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 08:10:04 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 181200    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B27  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 18/1407 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [925HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2S 161.4W
AT 181200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT 95 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES ELSEWHERE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN
200 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120
MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.  

OLAF HAS MAINTAINED A CLOUD FILLED EYE, WHICH IS GRADUALLY COOLING
AND BECOMING DISTENDED. INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR HAS ERODED CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
AND DECREASING ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON LG EYE IN A
BLACK SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. CI HELD AT 5.5;
FT BASED ON DT: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS. INCREASING RELATIVE SHEAR, AS
OLAF CURVES SOUTHWARDS AND DECELERATES, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON GRADUAL WEAKENING AND
TURNING OLAF SOUTHWARDS [AND LATER SOUTHWEST] AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES THE DOMINATING STEERING FORCE.      

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC NEAR 26.5S 160.6W MOV SSE 18KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC NEAR 28.0S 160.4W MOV S 15KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC NEAR 29.4S 160.3W MOV SSW 15KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC NEAR 30.9S 160.9W MOV SW 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.  

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
182030 UTC. 

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.