Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B12 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 14:26:57 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 141800    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B12  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 14/2023 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [935HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 175.8W AT
141800 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE
SOUTHEAST. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 115
KNOTS INCREASING TO 120 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33
KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.  

OLAF CONTINUES ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE
EYE REMAINS DEFINED IN RECENT EIR IMAGES, WITH A DG SHADE SURROUNDED
BY CMG. DVORAK ASSESSMENT YIELDS DT=7.0, MET=6.0 AND PAT=6.5. FT
BASED ON PAT: T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS. OLAF LIES IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
PEAK INTENSITY. WEAK EASTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS PRESENT, BUT MAY
DECREASE AS OLAF MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PREDICTING SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AS NORTHWEST STEERING DOMINATES. SOME
MODELS FORECAST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES WITH OLAF
WEAKENING AND MERGING WITH NANCY IN 3-4 DAYS.   

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 11.2S 174.7W MOV SE 10KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 12.7S 173.4W MOV SE 10KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 14.2S 171.9W MOV SE 10KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 15.9S 170.2W MOV SE 15KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.  

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
150230 UTC. 

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