Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A13 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 20:04:00 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 080000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 08/0159 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [970HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 161.0E
AT 080000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, 2140Z MICROWAVE DATA AND PERIPERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MOVEMENT WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS, SLOWING TO
12 KNOTS IN PAST 6 HOURS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER
47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES
OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

SYSTEM ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A CLOUD FILLED EYE
EVIDENT AT TIMES DURING PAST 3 HOURS. CDO DIAMETER 1.5 DEGREES WITH
BANDING FEATURE GIVES DT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT AND PT=4.5. DVORAK
ANALYSIS T4.5/4.5MINUS/D1.5/24HRS. TC KERRY IS MOVING WSW TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH IN NW SECTOR, BUT ENHANCED IN SE SECTOR BY DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING 250 HPA TROUGH. REDUCING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ALLOWED FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHED THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. TC KERRY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS A
LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEAKEN IN THE 12-48 HOUR
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST AROUND 29C. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST SLOWING WSW MOVEMENT THEN EITHER A TURN TO W OR WNW
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OR RECURVATURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.6S 160.1E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 19.0S 159.5E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.2S 159.1E MOV WSW AT 0 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 19.4S 158.7E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
080800 UTC.

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