Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 21:56:58 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 240356
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 4N77W 3N82W 5N90W
4N100W 8N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF
7.5N122.6W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45-60 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 102W.

OTHER CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 45
NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO ALONG 104W.

..DISCUSSION...
WEST OF 100W...
SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW CORNER OF
THE AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N130W SEWD TO NEAR 26N124W. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SWING NNEWD AT 15-20 KT. 130 KT JET CONTINUES TO
DIG SE BEHIND TROUGH AND WILL KEEP IT MOVING NEWD OVER THE NEXT
18-24 HOURS. TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N129W 20N134W.
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 16N140W. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT AND USHERING IN LARGER
SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 FT.

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N114W AND IS NOW
DRIFTING TO THE NW. FEATURE REMAINS ELONGATED ALONG A NW-SE AXIS
AND THE NW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 118W. SOME
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN WITHIN THIS
TROUGH AND IS WRAPPING AROUND TO THE E OVER CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA...THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND NW MEXICO. VERY NARROW RIDGE
WHICH WAS BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS HAS NOW DEGENERATED INTO AN
AXIS OF DEFORMATION ROUGHLY ALONG 32N123W 26N118W.

ANOTHER BUT WEAKER UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE THROUGH
22N107W SWWD TO 11N126W. THE AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE
NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND TEXAS IN AN AREA WITHIN 500 NM SE OF THIS TROUGH.

EAST OF 100W...
SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THIS AREA.  THE
SOUTHERLY WIND IS LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF A LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
THE AREA IS DRY ALOFT WITH IMPLIED UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
LITTLE CONVECTION IS IN THIS AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP IN
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SUGGESTING THAT STRONG WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO BLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS.

$$
COBB

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