Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B1 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 20:26:53 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 120000    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 12/0223 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 179.5W  AT
120000 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE. 

LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A COMMON CENTRE.
BANDING HAS BECOME EVIDENT TO THE NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE LLCC IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS SUGGESTING BETTER ORGANISATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. 08F IS LOCATED IN A REGION
OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE SOUTH OF A 250 HPA OUFLOW. ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY SHEARED AND RATE OF DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.
DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON A LOG10 WRAP OF .40 GIVES DT=2.5,
MET=PT=2.0. FINAL T NUMBER BASED ON PT GIVING T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN OPINION ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF 08F.
BRACKNELL AND JMA INDICATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND STEER THE
SYSTEM SOUTHEAST. ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOT KEEN. 

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F WILL BE ISSUED AT
120830UTC. 

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