Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 11:41:33 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0
56.1E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S7 55.8E8, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
WEST OF MAURITIUS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVEC-
TION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 091217Z0 TRMM MICROWAVE
PASS SHOW DECOUPLING OF THE CONVECTION FROM THE WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER THE LLCC IS BOUNDED
BY REGIONS OF MODERATE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR. DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FAVORABLE, AND THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUS-
TAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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