Subject: Indian-S: Msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor Hi/jtwc//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 02:42:10 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
DIRNSA FT GEORGE MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z5 --- NEAR 11.0S2 83.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 83.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 11.5S7 80.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 12.3S6 77.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 13.7S1 74.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 15.0S6 72.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 82.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 180530Z7 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATEL-
LITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED FURTHER EQUATORWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND THIS
WARNING REFLECTS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TC 11S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SLOWLY AS THE OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND 190900Z9.//

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