Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 15:28:04 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 152127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE 2N78W 6N90W 
3N99W 2N116W 8N128W 7N140W. 
THERE IS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N119W TO 16N140W.  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ALONG A LINE THROUGH 32N123W TO 20N130W 
THEN BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO 14N140W.  WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 20N.  SCATTERED 
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.  THE 
UPPER LEVELS WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE DRY INDICATING MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 360 NM 
LINE MARKING THE TROUGH.  

ELSEWHERE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED.  MOST OF THE RIDGE AREA 
IS DRY HOWEVER THERE ARE TWO EXCEPTIONS.  ONE IS WITHIN 500 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 32N119W TO 20N130W WHERE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHWESTERN 
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  OVERCAST MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL ACCOMPANY THIS MOISTURE.  THE OTHER EXCEPTION IS 
WHERE THE ITCZ CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS RELEASING MOISTURE 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEAST 
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM FAR EASTERN MEXICO TO NICARAGUA.  NOT MUCH 
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH LARGE AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND 
IN THE RIDGE AREA.

$$
LL

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