Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 11:57:24 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.1S5
52.4E1, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS
DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9S5 83.2E3,
APPROXIMATELY 815 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS REMAINED NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
SHEAR FROM THE NORTH HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION POLEWARD CAUSING
THE LLCC TO BE FULLY EXPOSED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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