Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B19 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 08:29:09 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 161200    
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B19  issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 16/1426 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [915HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 169.9W
AT 161200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS,
DECREASING TO 115 KNOTS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63
KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60
MILES OF THE CENTRE, WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.  

EYE COOLING PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE TOPS ENCIRCLING THE EYE
REMAIN VERY COLD [<-80C]. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH
AN LG EYE IN CMG SURROUND YIELDING DT=6.5. MET=PT=6.5, BUT CI HELD AT
7.0: T6.5/7.0/D0.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE AND OUTLFOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RELATIVE SHEAR
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AS OLAF ACCELERATES SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK
WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD AS OLAF INTERACTS
WITH THE REMNANTS OF NANCY.      

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 15.9S 168.0W MOV SE 15KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC NEAR 18.3S 166.6W MOV SE 13KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC NEAR 19.9S 165.2W MOV SE 12KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC NEAR 21.2S 164.0W MOV SE 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.  

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
162030 UTC. 

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