Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B3 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 08:21:31 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 121200    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B3  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 12/1418 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 178.9W AT
121200 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE. 

EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LLCC. BANDING HAS RECENTLY APPEARED TO
THE EAST OF THE LLCC, EVIDENTLY DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES. LOG10
SPIRAL WRAPS 0.3. DVORAK ANALYSIS STANDS AT T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS. SST
AROUND 30C. 08F REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE SOUTH OF A
250 HPA OUFLOW. ENVIRONMENT SHEAR IS DECREASING AND MAY LEAD TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN OPINION ABOUT 08F.
BRACKNELL AND NOGAPS FAVOUR INTENSIFICATION, WHILE, ECMWF, GFS AND
GFDL SUPPORT 09F AT THE EXPENSE OF 08F. ENVIRONMENT STEERING IS WEAK
AND 08F IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
122030 UTC. 

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