Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 15:39:40 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/312200Z-011800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311951ZDEC2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1). AT 311800Z3, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.1N4 121.6E0, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
PORT HEDLUND, AUSTRALIA, TRACKING SOUTHWESTWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 312100)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (CHAMBO), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.2S9 70.3E0, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 25.5S2 69.6E1, APPROXIMATELY 810 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA
REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PAR-
TIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER A REGION OF
UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED POLEWARD OF THE
LLCC. 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LLCC WITH HIGH VERTICAL SHEAR EAST AND
WEST OF THE LLCC AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND A WELL
FORMED LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2 120.9E2
IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARAGRAPH 2.A.(1)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1 133.9E6
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S9 133.4E1, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION.
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A GOOD ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED TO REFLECT WARNING #1 FOR TC 07S.
RELEASED BY: MAJOR GRUBER, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: GRUBER/FJELD/SCHULTZ//

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