Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 14:21:25 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z4 --- NEAR 27.0S9 46.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S9 46.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 30.3S6 50.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 34.1S8 55.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 27.8S7 47.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
480 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM
ALL FIXING AGENCIES. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 12S IS IN THE FIRST
STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 12S IS FORECAST
TO RAPIDLY TRACK POLEWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECOUPLES THE
CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231800Z4 IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (TIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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