Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 14:53:32 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/172100Z-181800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4
84.5E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0 84.0E2, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S6 57.2E4
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 56.1E2, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTH OF
MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING OVER A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTI-
MATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT
1002 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE PARA 2.B.(2) TO GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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