Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 20:29:29 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- NEAR 16.3S0 166.7E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 166.7E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 17.3S1 164.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 18.1S0 161.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 19.0S0 160.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 19.3S3 159.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 166.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSED THROUGH VANUATU.
A RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT LAMAP, VANUATU REPORTED
30 KNOTS SUSTAINED WHILE BAUERFIELD TO THE SOUTH REPORTED
A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1000.3 MB. A 061900Z6 QUIK-
SCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO RE-
SIDE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDN, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, WBAR AND NCEP GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.//

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