Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 12:08:50 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 281807

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 9/11/20042005
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11  (EX-FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/28 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8S / 44.5E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/29 06 UTC: 25.3S/45.0E OVERLAND.
24H: 2005/01/29 18 UTC: 26.0S/46.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-FELAPI'S CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE ON THE ANIMATED
IR
IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERLAND BETWEEN TULEAR AND SAINTE-MARIE
CAPE.
EX-FELAPI HAS LOST STRUCTURE. LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS
BADLY
DEFINED. DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ERODES
CONVECTION,
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR SOUTH OF 25AOS IS STRONG.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF
REGENERATION.=

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