Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 09:41:37 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 021541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

..ITCZ...
THE AXIS OF INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG
4N78W 4N94W 8N105W 8N130W 8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
 
DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
LARGE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF THE NORTHERN 
BAJA COAST NEAR 30N119W. THE CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW 
THROUGH THE CIRCULATION TO 21N127W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 25N E OF 128W. A JET STREAM EXTENDS SE OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 18N120W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND ACROSS 
MAINLAND MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATE WINDS OF 90-125 KT IN THE CORE OF THE JET FROM THE 
BAJA PENINSULA NE ACROSS MEXICO.

E OF 100W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 100W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 96W. THE SUBSIDENCE IS 
PREVENTING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITCZ. 
STRONG WINDS ACROSS BOTH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
48 HRS. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...
AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER S TODAY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
TONIGHT THEN CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.

$$
BROWN

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