Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 23:43:30 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N2
171.0E9, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CON-
VECTION ORGANIZING AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUR-
FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
        (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8
167.6W0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8 167.0W4, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WITH STRONG CROSS-
EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. THE JTWC HOMEPAGE WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FROM APPROXIMATELY 150200Z8
TO 150830Z7FEB DUE TO MAINTENANCE.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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