Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 16:13:53 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 122230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/122230Z-130600ZFEB2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/222151ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.5N2 171.0E9, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
        (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.5S4
178.0W6, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND A DEVELOPING ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8
167.0W4, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2 166.0W3, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 121221Z9 AMSR-E PASS
DEPICTS A SMALL WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WITH CONTINUED CROSS-EQUATORIAL
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. SEE REF A

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