Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 06:42:45 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 291236

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 4/12/20042005
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12

2.A POSITION 2005/01/29 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 74.4E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/30 00 UTC: 13.8S/72.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/01/30 12 UTC: 15.2S/71.2E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/01/31 00 UTC: 16.0S/69.8E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/01/31 12 UTC: 16.4S/68.8E, MAX WIND=040KT.
60H: 2005/02/01 00 UTC: 16.8S/68.1E, MAX WIND=040KT.
72H: 2005/02/01 12 UTC: 17.2S/67.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY AT PRESENT ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS
.
BETWEEN 10S AND 16S AND BETWEEN 67E AND 80E CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CONFUSED AND SEVERAL CENTERS MAY EXIST.
THE MENTIONNED CENTER IS ESTIMED TO BE THE MAIN, ANOTHER CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION NEAR 11.8S/71.6E IS ALSO REVEALED ON RECENT INDOEX SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL MAINTAIN WITH A MOSOON FLOW UP TO 10/15KT
EQUATORWARD AND TRADE WINDS UP TO 15/20 KT POLARWARD.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND SLOWLY DEEPEN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND APPROACHING AN UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WITHIN
SUNDAY EVENING WHICH WOULD FAVOUR TO BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL POLAR OUTFLOW
AND A POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW AND DEEPEN IT SLOWLY WITHIN 24 TO
48 HOURS

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