Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 08:32:53 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 17.8S6 163.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 163.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 18.7S6 161.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 19.2S2 159.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 19.3S3 158.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 19.2S2 157.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 163.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
310 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 55 AND 77
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT
SURPRISE ISLAND REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF
998.3 MB. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.//

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