Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 03:13:34 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 020913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...3N78W 6N90W 8N115W 4N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
 
DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 23N127W WITH 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...DRYING AIR...N OF 21N FROM 120W 
TO 135W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE JET STREAM FROM 
20N120W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS INDICATE WINDS OF 100 TO 110 KT IN THE CORE OF THE 
JET INCREASING TO 120 TO 130 KT OVER MEXICO. THE JET IS 
ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVER THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 120W.

E OF 100W...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 100W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 95W...WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE BETWEEN 95W-100W. THE SUBSIDENCE IS PREVENTING ANY 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITCZ. STRONG WINDS 
CONTINUE ACROSS BOTH GULF OF PANAMA AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO LIKELY 
TO REMAIN THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS. COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO...AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER S TODAY WINDS WILL 
INCREASE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
DGS

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