Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 20:36:18 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z7 --- NEAR 4.4N8 86.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.4N8 86.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 4.6N0 85.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 4.9N3 85.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 5.7N2 86.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 7.0N7 86.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 8.9N7 87.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 4.4N8 86.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS DRIFTED WEST-
WARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CYCLING DEEP CON-
VECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIR-
CULATION CENTER. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR. TC 02B IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM BE-
GINS TO TRACK POLEWARD AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z6, 161500Z3, 162100Z0 AND 170300Z1.//

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