Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 08 Feb 2005 19:08:27 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 090010
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 2/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/09 AT 0000 UTC :
18.1S / 56.2E 
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/09 12 UTC: 18.3S/56.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/10 00 UTC: 18.5S/55.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/10 12 UTC: 19.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/11 00 UTC: 19.5S/54.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/11 12 UTC: 20.3S/53.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/12 00 UTC: 21.5S/52.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5+
POORLY ORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LOCATED NOW OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCLCKWISE CIRCULATION.
THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

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