Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 15:49:11 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 052148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 5N77W 6N100W 7N120W 8N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 124W-133W.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM 24 HOURS AGO IN
THIS REGION. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 11N121W NEWD TO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA IS SHIFTING EWD 15-20 KT. FLOW TO THE SW OF THE
ANTICYCLONE IS STRONGLY DIFFLUENT WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N136W 25N136W WITH SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SWEEPING OVER THE AREA N OF 15N W OF
133W. A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N138W 26N140W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING N OF 26N BETWEEN 134W-138W. UPPER LEVEL
JET PUNCHES NEWD FROM 23N137W 30N125W AND TURNS MORE EASTWARD
ALONG THE U.S. MEXICO BORDER TO THE SW CONUS. JET IS
TRANSPORTING VAST AMOUNTS OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO A MAJOR
WINTER STORM IN PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND MIDWEST U.S.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRES
NEAR LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA S THEN SE ALONG 23N118W 15N107W.

E OF 110W...
WEAKENING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS AREA FROM 95W TO 115W
N WITH MAIN AXIS EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MEXICO TO 5N107W. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD IN THE FACE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA MODERATE TO VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS CENTRAL MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...WIND
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FUNNELING MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PANAMA...PAPAGAYO...FONSECA AND TEHUANTEPEC GAPS WITH
SOME ROUGH SEAS.

$$
BERG

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