Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 00:36:53 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 200636

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 11/9/20042005
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9  (DAREN)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/20 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 71.8E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.0 /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 060   SE: 090   SO: 090   NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/20 18 UTC: 17.1S/67.9E, MAX WIND=050KT.
24H: 2005/01/21 06 UTC: 17.9S/64.9E, MAX WIND=050KT.
36H: 2005/01/21 18 UTC: 18.3S/62.3E, MAX WIND=050KT.
48H: 2005/01/22 06 UTC: 18.8S/60.0E, MAX WIND=045KT.
60H: 2005/01/22 18 UTC: 19.0S/57.7E, MAX WIND=045KT.
72H: 2005/01/23 06 UTC: 19.6S/55.1E, MAX WIND=045KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.0+
THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING UNDERGOING A NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND
LLCC IS EXPOSED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
DAREN SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER QUICKLY ON
THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DRY ENVIRONMENT, AND MONSOON FLOW IS
WEAK.
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS LIMITED.=

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