Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 03:31:48 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 120931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...2N80W 4N90W 2N100W 9N120W 
6N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...
W OF 125W
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N WITH MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE..DRY AIR ALOFT. A 90-100 KT WIND MAX ENTERS 
THE AREA NEAR 28N140W TO 32N125W. SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER IS 
ANALYZED NEAR 26N133W...1018 MB. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 13N135W WITH 
TROUGH SW TO 8N139W MOVING RAPIDLY EWD.

E OF 125W
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 17N118W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 115W. A 100 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS 
FROM SOUTHERN BAJA NE INTO NEW MEXICO. THE JET IS ADVECTING 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SW UNITED STATES. 
DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N113W TO 26N114W THEN 
BECOMES DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 18N115W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRES 
IS JUST E OF THE FRONT ALONG THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 
24N10W...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE HIGH PRES FROM 
23N108W TO 12N115W. A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS E OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED S OF 20N E OF 110W...EXCEPT FOR A FEW 
SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ.

STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRES IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS.

$$
DGS

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