Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Vii And Metarea Viii (s)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 18:03:03 -0600

WTIO22 FMEE 170001
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/02/2005
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY  17/02/2005 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 1004 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 51.5E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
 EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS BETWEEN 50 NM ET 150 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SECTOR.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80
NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH
SEAS  BETWEEN 60 NM AND 250 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/02/17 AT 12 UTC:
21.4S / 51.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/02/18 AT 00 UTC:
21.5S / 50.5E, MAX WIND = 20 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON THE IR IMAGERY.
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS UNFAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONFIRM ITS TRACK WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT
12 TO
 24  HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING IN
THE
SOUTHWEST, PROGRESSIVELY FILLING UP.=

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