Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 02:48:34 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z8 --- NEAR 12.6S9 45.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 45.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 14.0S5 43.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 15.4S0 42.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 17.1S9 41.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 19.2S2 41.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 45.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 12S HAS DEVELOPED
VERY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS A DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL
BECAME ESTABLISHED AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE SLI-
GHTLY INCREASED. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A WELL DEVELOPED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE BEGINNING DEVELOP-
MENT OF AN EYE IS EVIDENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOP-
MENT IS FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVI-
RONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUED GOOD OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8
IS 16 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPAC-
METOCCEN 191321ZJAN2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

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