Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A16 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 08:29:01 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 121200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 12/1426 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0S 160.2E
AT 121200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 200 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN
60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

KERRY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES EXPOSED TO
NORTH. DEEPER CONVECTION PERSISTENT TO SOUTH OF LLCC. OVERALL
ORGANISATION DECREASING STEADILY.  DVORAK BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN.
POORLY DEFINED LLCC LOCATED ABOUT 0.3 DEGREES NORTH OF DEEP
CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS. KERRY IS
EXPECTED TO BE CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
SUBSEQUENTLY STEERING IT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED.
GLOBAL MODELS AND CONSENSUS AGREE ON MOVING KERRY SOUTHWEST WHILST
WEAKENING FURTHER.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 23.0S 160.0E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 23.8S 158.3E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 25.0S 157.0E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 26.0S 155.5E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL ADVISORY ON TC KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 122000
UTC.

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