Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 14:51:27 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151451ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z5 --- NEAR 15.4S0 116.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 116.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 15.7S3 114.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 15.8S4 110.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 15.9S5 107.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 16.1S8 104.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 151649Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTEN-
SITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30,
35, AND 45 KNOTS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE. TC 10S IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE LLCC.
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, (WTXS21 PGTW 151500). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 160900Z6 AND 162100Z0.//

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