Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 14:58:40 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z5 --- NEAR 20.3S5 158.3W7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 158.3W7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 22.4S8 158.6W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 23.9S4 159.4W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 25.0S7 160.1W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 26.3S1 160.0W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 158.4W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
100 NM NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 151730Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
POLEWARD THEN BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER TAU 36. THE INTENSITY OF TC 18P
IS DECREASING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 AND 162100Z0. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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