Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 01:52:09 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (TIM) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z2 --- NEAR 16.1S8 108.1E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 108.1E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z5 --- 16.5S2 106.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z3 --- 17.1S9 105.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 17.8S6 103.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 18.3S2 101.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 107.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (TIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATEL-
LITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGEN-
CIES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
IS CYCLING, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
SOMEWHAT QUASISTATIONARY. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN STAGNANT AS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETS THE SURFACE
INFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND 250900Z6.//

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