Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 00:18:10 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 290616

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 3/12/20042005
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12

2.A POSITION 2005/01/29 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2S / 74.3E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/29 18 UTC: 12.7S/73.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/01/30 06 UTC: 14.4S/71.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/01/30 18 UTC: 15.8S/69.8E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/01/31 06 UTC: 17.8S/68.4E, MAX WIND=040KT.
60H: 2005/01/31 18 UTC: 18.8S/67.6E, MAX WIND=040KT.
72H: 2005/02/01 06 UTC: 19.3S/66.3E, MAX WIND=050KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY AT PRESENT ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS

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