Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 20:53:32 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z9 --- NEAR 11.6S8 82.8E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 82.8E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 12.4S7 80.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 13.2S6 77.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 14.5S0 74.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 16.1S8 71.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0 82.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
172330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANI-
MATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ORGANIZING CONVECTION
OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 11S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 170921Z9JAN05 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 170930) NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z5 AND 190300Z3.//

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