Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 11:31:25 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 241730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/241730Z-250600ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.8N1
174.5E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N3 178.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH WEAK OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH
MICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT IMAGERY DOES NOT INDICATE A DISTINCT SURFACE
ROTATION, ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW LOW TO MID-
LEVEL INFLOW AROUND A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, 850 MB VORTICITY HAS INCREASED IN STRENGTH
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4S3 179.0W7
APPROXIMATELY 490 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ORGANIZING OVER A POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIG-
NIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
       (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADD PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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