Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 03:29:48 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 040929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N78W 8N88W 6N105W 13N113W 7N131W 7N140W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 
109W TO 115W.

DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
DOMINATING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N119W 
WITH ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FOUND N OF 19N BETWEEN 
131W AND 111W. AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND W OF THE LOW 
CENTER IN AREA OF MODERATE W CONVERGING WITH NW WINDS ALOFT. 
VERY ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET EXTENDS ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 22N139W 
17N123W THEN TURNING NE TOWARD THE INLAND PORTIONS OF N MEXICO 
NEAR 24N109W. CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED DATA INDICATES WINDS OF 
100 TO 120 KT FOUND WITHIN THIS JET. SURGING NE BRANCH OF JET 
INTO MEXICO IS HELPING TO ADVECT SUBSTANTIAL MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THAT AREA OF MEXICO TONIGHT.  

AT THE SURFACE...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LOW IS HELPING TO SPARK SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 
THE ITCZ NEAR 112W. 

E OF 105W...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES AREA AND CONTINUES TO STIFLE ANY 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA OF THE E PACIFIC. 

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WINDS...20 TO 25 KT....CONTINUE TO 
FUNNEL INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA AND WILL PERSIST 
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SIMILARLY...A MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE IN 36 
HOURS...AND CONTINUE TO BLOW AT NEAR 25 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
HOLWEG

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