Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 06:13:09 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 091211

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 3/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/09 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 55.6E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/10 00 UTC: 18.4S/54.9E, MAX WIND=020KT.
24H: 2005/02/10 12 UTC: 18.9S/54.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/11 00 UTC: 19.4S/54.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/11 12 UTC: 21.1S/54.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/12 00 UTC: 22.5S/53.4E, MAX WIND=020KT.
72H: 2005/02/12 12 UTC: 23.7S/53.4E, MAX WIND=020KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5+
POORLY ORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, MAINLY LOCATED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH SLIGHT SOUTHERN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS
SYSTEM
 MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OF MASCARENES ISLANDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT INTENSI
FICATION.
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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