Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert/301351zjan2005//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 08:02:47 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 301400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/301351ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1S7 69.7E2 TO 20.8S0 65.2E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301130Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S2 69.4E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
71.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 69.4E9, APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION AND
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED
ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 311400Z9.//

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