Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 11:29:35 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZFEB2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031421ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.4S6
63.1E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3S7 58.4E7, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION AND DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY RE-
VEALS A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH INDICATIONS OF A DEVELOPING
EYE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND A NARROW REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNFAVOR-
ABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
031430) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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