Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 09:44:59 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 131600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN CORRECTED/131600Z-131800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACTMETOCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N6 89.5E2
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8 84.7N9, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCUL-
ATION CENTER (LLCC). SPIRAL BANDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHERN SECTION
POINTING TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM.
ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5
127.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 015.0S6 123.5E1, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH
OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER
WATER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE. 850 MB VORTICITY TRENDS SHOW INCREASING STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8S4 86.9E3,
APPROXIMATELY 860 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
INCREASING ORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. 850 MB VORTICITY TRENDS
SHOW INCREASING STRENGTH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED FAIR PARA 2.B.(1) TO INCLUDE
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS BULLETIN LISTING AS FAIR AREA.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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