Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 12:20:11 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 281819

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 2/12/20042005
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12

2.A POSITION 2005/01/28 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.5S / 73.3E
(SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/29 06 UTC: 07.5S/71.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/01/29 18 UTC: 08.6S/70.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/01/30 06 UTC: 09.8S/69.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/01/30 18 UTC: 11.0S/67.7E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2005/01/31 06 UTC: 12.1S/66.4E, MAX WIND=040KT.
72H: 2005/01/31 18 UTC: 13.0S/65.1E, MAX WIND=045KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW BUT DO NOT DEEPEN IT QUICKLY. FORECAST
TRACK
IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILBLE MODELS.=

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