Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 04:19:27 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 251019
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N78W 5N95W 4N110W 8N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 95W-96W.

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT JETSTREAM COMPOSED OF TWO ENERGIZED BRANCHES IS 
CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 15N140W ALONG 15N125W TO 17N115W 
WHERE THE FLOW SPLITS. ONE BRANCH TURNS CYCLONICALLY NE ACROSS 
OLD MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE SECOND BRANCH TURNS 
ANTICYCLONICALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES DIFFUSED NEAR 101W.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS REVEAL MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE RANGE 70-90 
KT WITHIN THE JET CORE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH GENERALLY WITHIN 
THE AREA CONFINED FROM 20N-26N E OF 120W.

N OF THE JET...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RACING 
EASTWARD FROM 32N124W SW ALONG 24N127W TO 18N135W. MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING W OF THE TROUGH IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH 
ASSOCIATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SINKING AIR SEEN N OF THE 
JETSTREAM W OF 130W. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW JUST E OF THE AREA 
N OF 25N E OF 117W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE 
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA.

IN THE TROPICS...UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9N125W TO 10N110W...ORIGINATING FROM 
FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN 120W-126W. ELSEWHERE...
DRY AIR IS INDICATED S OF THE JET MERGING WITH EVEN DRIER AIR 
DESCRIBED BELOW.

IN THE SUBTROPICS...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 18N E OF THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED TROUGH ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING 
ENE TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES 
RIDING ALONG THE MOISTURE PLUME AS SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY ARE HELPING TO TRIGGER OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERED AND 
ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME.

NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 2N126W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA SE 
OF THE JETSTREAM E OF 110W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN 
ELSEWHERE S OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH.

$$
AGUIRRE

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