Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 14:51:23 -0600

WTIO31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z5 --- NEAR 4.6N0 86.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 4.6N0 86.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 4.7N1 86.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 5.0N5 85.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 5.5N0 85.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 6.3N9 86.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 8.5N3 87.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 4.6N0 86.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
151730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM
ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WEAK INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK POLEWARD AND THE
OUTFLOW IMPROVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS
17 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0, 160900Z6, 161500Z3 AND
162100Z0.//

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