Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 00:34:09 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 120632

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 12/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/12 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 57.0E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/12 18 UTC: 18.8S/57.6E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/13 06 UTC: 20.2S/58.1E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/13 18 UTC: 21.5S/57.1E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/14 06 UTC: 22.4S/55.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/02/14 18 UTC: 22.4S/54.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/15 06 UTC: 23.4S/52.3E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION ALWAYS VERY FLUCTUATING, HAS REBUILT DURING LAST HOURS, AS
A
CLUSTER LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
PRESSURES REMAINS HIGH INTO THE AREA.
DEPLACEMENT REMAINS SLOW SOUTHEASTWARDS.=

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