Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 09:23:29 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 301523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 3N78W 5N90W 6N120W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 80W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR 35N108W 
WSWWD THROUGH 30N116W...A SHEARED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
NEAR 25N128W TO 23N133W. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE UNDERCUTTING 
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE N OF THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 130W.  
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED WITHIN 120-240 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS DESCRIBED ABOVE. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET 
STREAM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS NOTED ABOVE EXTENDS FROM 22N122W 
NEWD THROUGH 28N110W INTO W-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WAS ADVECTING 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS NORTHERN 
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN CONUS. CORE SPEEDS WERE 110-120 KT PER 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG RIDGE 
EXTENDED FROM 30N127W THROUGH 25N120W TO 20N110W. NE TO E WINDS 
OF 20-25 KT WERE OCCURRING S OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO 8N.  

E OF 105W...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERED VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 105W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION 
WAS AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE ITCZ E 
OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

AT THE SURFACE...QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1200 UTC THIS MORNING 
INDICATED NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH INDICATED LOW CLOUDS BANKED IN 
THE PASSES OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS LEADING INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. 

$$
COBB

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