Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 04:07:13 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 221007
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 6N90W 4N100W 5N115W 5N125W 6N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

DISCUSSION...
A 900 NM WIDE WESTERLY JETSTREAM IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE TROUGH 
15N140W TO 13N122W WHERE THE FLOW SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH 
CONTINUING CYCLONICALLY NE TO BEYOND 23N100W. THE SECOND BRANCH 
TURNS ANTICYCLONICALLY SE AND LOSES IDENTITY ALONG 100W WHERE 
STRONG DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED. MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE 
JET CORE REACH UP TO 90 KT WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
JET W OF 135W...AND BETWEEN 113W-125W. DRY AIR IS INDICATED S OF 
THE JET...EXCEPT FOR A MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG 
7N W OF 130W.

N OF THE JET A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVE 
TILT WITH TIME WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N122W ALONG
24N120W TO 20N118W. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST N OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N125W AND IS MOVING SE WITH TIME. ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
IS WEAKENING FROM 32N117W TO 25N120W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVELS N OF THE JET AXIS ARE DRY INDICATING MODERATE 
TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ INTO ARIZONA.

A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS OBSERVED 4N98W MOVING ESE 17 KT.
PRONOUNCED DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT NOTED SE OF LINE 10N114W 25N80W 
EXCEPT FOR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMANATING FROM FORMER ITCZ 
CONVECTION ADVECTED NE OVER WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN.

NE WINDS ARE SPREADING W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE PAC 
FROM 8N TO 12N E OF 91W...AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST FOR ABOUT
ANOTHER 48 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE

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