Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 07:07:03 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 021252
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 19/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/02/02 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0S / 62.7E 
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/03 00 UTC: 20.4S/61.2E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/02/03 12 UTC: 20.9S/59.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2005/02/04 00 UTC: 22.2S/57.8E, MAX WIND=050KT.
48H: 2005/02/04 12 UTC: 24.2S/56.4E, MAX WIND=050KT.
60H: 2005/02/05 00 UTC: 26.8S/55.2E, MAX WIND=040KT.
72H: 2005/02/05 12 UTC: 30.2S/54.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
CONVECTION EXISTS NEAR THE CENTER MORE THAN 12 HOURS AGO BUT ORGANISATION
 IS LACKING AT THIS STAGE.
THIS SITUATION HOWEVER GIVES ROOM FOR POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS
SYSTEM WHILE ASSUMING MORE TYPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTERN.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER SLOWLY AT
SHORT RANGE BEFORE RECURVING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARDS AT LATER RANGE.

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