Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 11:30:22 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN /121800Z-131800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N6
89.5E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N5 89.8E5, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDING FEATURES INTO
THE LARGE LLCC, HOWEVER THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS EVIDENT. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE PREVIOUSLY
ELONGATED LLCC IS NOW CONSOLIDATING WITH HIGHER WINDS EVIDENT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0
128.7E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 127.0E0, OVER LAND NEAR
KALUMBURU, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLIC DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAK, BUT
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, LLCC. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAK LLCC MAY BE LOCATED OVER LAND. 200 MB ANALYSIS
REVEALS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. DUE
TO EXPECTED IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLCC MOVES
OVER OPEN WATER IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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