Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 072130z Jan 05//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 15:50:31 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 072130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 072130Z JAN 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S9 101.8E0 TO 16.4S1 97.8E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 071930Z0 INDICATES THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 101.0E2. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0 101.1E3,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 101.0E2, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND
PERSISTED OVER A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IND-
ICATES THAT THE FEATURE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROP-
ICAL RIDGE AXIS, BOUNDED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BY MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE APPROACH OF A TROF FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. MINI-
MUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 082121Z4.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.