Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Vii And Metarea Viii (s)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 17 Feb 2005 06:12:32 -0600

WTIO22 FMEE 171211
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/02/2005
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY  17/02/2005 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 1004 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0S / 52.1E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES  SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
 EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT:          QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 300 NM RADIOUS OF THE CENTER, MAINLY IN
THE
 EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80
NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH
SEAS  BETWEEN 60 NM AND 250 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/02/18 AT 00 UTC:
22.2S / 51.9E, MAX WIND = 20 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/02/18 AT 12 UTC:
21.9S / 51.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTRE HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY SINCE LAST NIGHT.
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS UNFAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO  TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS
, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING IN THE
SOUTHWEST,
 PROGRESSIVELY FILLING UP.
CLOCKWISE  CIRCULATION IS VERY WEAK, QUITE DISORGANIZED, THIS THE
LAST
WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT REINTENSIFICATION.=

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