Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 16:16:57 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 302216
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 3N78W  5N90W  6N120W  5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
DEEP LAYER POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 
30N120W TO 20N130W.  TROUGH STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE PREVIOUSLY 
WELL-ANCHORED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 100W.  
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS. 
JET STREAM ON E SIDE OF TROUGH ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROPICAL MOISTURE NE ACROSS S BAJA CALIFORNIA...N MEXICO AND 
INTO S CENTRAL CONUS WITH CORE SPEEDS TOPPING 135 KT. 

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG RIDGE EXTEND ALONG 130W PROPULSING 
MODERATE TO STRONG NE TRADES ALONG WIDE SWATH OF E PAC ALONG ITS 
PERIPHERY.  

E OF 100W...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERED VIRTUALLY 
ENTIRE AREA E OF 100W EXCEPT SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED CONVECTION 
FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. 

AT THE SURFACE...NE TO E WIND OF 20-25 KT OVER GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD ABATE AS RIDGE IS PUSHED E WITHIN NEXT 36 
HR. 

$$
WALLY BARNES

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