Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 08:27:26 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131021ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z7 --- NEAR 9.3S2 177.4W9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S2 177.4W9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 9.2S1 176.5W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 9.8S7 175.2W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 11.1S3 173.3W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 12.8S1 171.4W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 9.3S2 177.2W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHWEST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30, 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VER-
TICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS
17 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
131021ZFEB2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW
131030). NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND 141500Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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