Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Vii And Metarea Viii (s)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 00:36:33 -0600

WTIO22 FMEE 310629
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2005 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY    31/01/2005 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 (EX-FELAPI) 1000 HPA 
POSITION:           22.2S / 50.5E 
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST
) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:          NORTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,MAINLY IN THE
 NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. 
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/01/31 AT 18 UTC: 
22.0S / 50.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/02/01 AT 06 UTC: 
22.5S / 49.2E, MAX WIND = 20 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-FELAPI HAS LOST IN ORGANIZATION. THERE ARE NO CLUSTERS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE. ITS MOVEMENT IS ALMOST STATIONARY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND MASCARENES ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS,
 WEAKENING, AND THEN TRACK SOUTHWARDS.

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