Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 04:06:45 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 241006
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N82W 3N93W 3N105W 5N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W-119W.

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT JETSTREAM COMPOSED OF TWO ENERGIZED BRANCHES IS 
CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 15N140W ALONG 17N127W TO 13N113W 
WHERE THE FLOW SPLITS. ONE BRANCH TURNS CYCLONICALLY NE ACROSS 
OLD MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE SECOND BRANCH TURNS 
ANTICYCLONICALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES DIFFUSED ALONG 105W. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS REVEAL MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS UP TO 95 KT 
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 110W-120W.

N OF THE JET...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILT SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUT HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED 
EASTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED E OF ABOUT
117W INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS SLOWLY MOVING ESE OVER EXTREME
SW ARIZONA AND APPROACHING EXTREME NW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION IS NOTED AS A RATHER DIFFUSE TROUGH EXTENDING 
SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND INTO THE REGION TO NEAR 
27N120W. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE 
TROUGH. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

IN THE TROPICS...UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7N135W ALONG 7N120W TO 5N112W...
ORIGINATING FROM FORMER AND PRESENT ITCZ CONVECTION GENERALLY
BETWEEN 115W-132W. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IS INDICATED S OF THE JET 
MERGING WITH EVEN DRIER AIR DESCRIBED BELOW.

IN THE SUBTROPICS...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 20N...DRY AIR THAT WAS
PRESENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS GRADUALLY BEING REPLACED BY
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING E IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW. WEAK 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
DESCRIBED EARLIER IN THE DISCUSSION HAS AXIS EXTENDING FROM
30N133W TO 25N137W.
 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 2N126W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND RESULTANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA SE OF THE JETSTREAM
E OF 110W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN ELSEWHERE S OF THE 
SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRANCH.

NE WINDS TO 20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN COSTA RICA ARE 
SHOULD NOT CONTINUE PAST ANOTHER 12 HOURS AS LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY LOW SEA STATES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
NE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 110W THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

$$
AGUIRRE

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