Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 06:33:34 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 011231

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 15/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/02/01 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7S / 64.6E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/02 00 UTC: 19.8S/63.7E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/02 12 UTC: 20.1S/62.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/03 00 UTC: 20.4S/59.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/02/03 12 UTC: 20.5S/58.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/02/04 00 UTC: 21.0S/57.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/02/04 12 UTC: 21.5S/55.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
MONSOON DEPRESSION SYSTEM : LARGE LLCC, WITH STRONGEST WINDS FAR FROM
THE
 CENTRE. UNTIL NOW, DRY AIR INTRUSION IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL INHIBITS
THE
 DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
THE WHOLE SYSTEM (LLCC AND CONVECTIVE BANDS) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER SLOWLY, GIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
MASCARENES
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.=

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