Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 20:09:51 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/051821Z FEB 05//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 14.0S5 140.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 140.0E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 14.9S4 139.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 15.9S5 139.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 16.8S5 138.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 17.6S4 138.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 139.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (HARVEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
052330Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30, AND 35
KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. A
052105Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH INCREASED WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 16P IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS
IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY SHOULD SLOW-
LY RISE DUE TO DECREASED SURFACE INFLOW AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 051821Z7 FEB 05 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 051830). NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z2 AND 070300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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