Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 14:47:37 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- NEAR 15.3S9 160.9W6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 160.9W6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 17.6S4 159.4W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 20.1S3 159.3W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 22.0S4 159.9W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 23.5S0 160.2W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5  160.5W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
NORTH OF RARATONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102, 115, AND
127 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD
DIVERGENCE WHICH CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM. TC 18P IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 AND 152100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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