Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 08:22:46 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z1 --- NEAR 18.6S5 159.6E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 159.6E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 18.9S8 159.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 18.9S8 158.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 19.0S0 158.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 19.3S3 157.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 159.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
440 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED. A 080721Z8 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. A 081013Z3 SSMI PASS AT
85 GHZ DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CLOUD FILLED EYE. TC 08P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. MODEL
DEPICTED STEERING ENVIRONMENTS DISAGREE AMONG THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THE TRACK OF TC 08P HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.//

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