Subject: FIJI: Part 02

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 14:36:51 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 071800
PART 02

4.0. DVORAK ANALYSIS
T4.0/4.0MINUS/D1.0/24HRS. TC KERRY IS MOVING WSW NORTH OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER OUTFLOW GOOD BUT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC KERRY IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST SLOWING WSW THEN W OR WNW MOVEMENT
DURING NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.3S 160.3E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 19.2S 159.2E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 19.3S 158.6E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 19.1S 157.8E MOV WNW AT 5 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
080200 UTC.

END PART 02 OF 02

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