Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 06:37:23 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 031217
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 23/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12

2.A POSITION 2005/02/03 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3S / 58.4E 
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 MOINS /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 030   SE: 030   SO: 030   NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/04 00 UTC: 23.0S/56.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.
24H: 2005/02/04 12 UTC: 24.8S/54.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/05 00 UTC: 27.4S/54.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/02/05 12 UTC: 30.5S/54.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/02/06 00 UTC: 34.6S/56.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2005/02/06 12 UTC: 38.0S/58.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS SMALL SYSTEM IS ALMOST A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, PASSING NEAR COATS OF
 LA REUNION DURING THE NIGHT, BEFORE TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARDS IN THE
TROUGH THE 02/04.

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