Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 21:31:18 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 080331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N77W 4N90W 7N106W 6N114W 7N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
84W-89W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N-10N W OF 132W.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
A HIGHLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA WITH A PAIR OF
UPPER LEVEL LOWS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST AND OFF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLAND CHAIN. THE UPPER FLOW S OF THESE FEATURES
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SWIFT 70-90 KT
JET STREAM AT 250 MB. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING SEVERAL FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WHICH ARE QUICKLY SKIRTING THROUGH THE AREA ON A
DAY-BY-DAY BASIS. CURRENTLY...A 989 MB LOW HAS MOVED INLAND NOW
NEAR RENO NEVADA AND THE ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S OF LOS ANGELES INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N119W 25N126W
24N133W. LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 120
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N...WITH SOME MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NW
MEXICO. FARTHER W...A 1006 MB TRIPLE POINT LOW HAS JUST MOVED
INTO THE AREA NEAR 29N139W WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW BEYOND
26N140W...AND WARM FRONT STRETCHING E TO 29N132W. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 26N-30N
BETWEEN 128W-138W. ELSEWHERE...A PAIR OF UPPER RIDGES ARE
CENTERED ALONG EQ130W 13N124W AND FROM 7N111W NEWD TOWARDS
ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WESTERNMOST RIDGE FROM 5N-22N W OF 120W BUT
THERE IS LITTLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

E OF 100W...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST SINCE YESTERDAY
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS GUATEMALA SWWD
TO 2N103W. THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 100W IS DOMINATED BY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SO CONVECTION IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM EAST
TO WEST JUST OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO FORM ALONG THE ITCZ W OF COLOMBIA. ONLY THE GAP
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE ACTIVE AT THE MOMENT
RESULTING FROM STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 30 HOURS AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
BERG

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