Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 02:20:45 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 070600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 07/0818 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 164.9E
AT 070600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 HRVIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.
 MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
45 KNOTS INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  WINDS
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

SYSTEM BECOMING BETTER ORGAINSED SINCE PAST 12 HOURS. CDO PATTEN
REMAINS APARENT AND EVOLVING FURTHER. A LARGE BANDING FEATURE
PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF THE CDO. SST AROUND 30C. CDO DIAMETER 1.3
DEGREES YIELDS DT 0F 3.0. PT AND MET ALSO 3.0. DVORAK ANALYSIS
T3.0/3.0PLUS/S0.0/24HRS. TC KERRY IS MOVING WSW NORTH OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER OUTFLOW GOOD AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS
LOW AS TC MOVEMENT IS PARALLEL TO UPPER WIND FLOW. TC KERRY IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FURTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN WSW MOVEMENT FOR NEXT 24-36
HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 18.1S 162.5E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.0S 160.8E MOV WSW AT 8 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 19.1S 159.8E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 19.0S 158.9E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON KERRY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
071400 UTC.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.