Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 02:18:28 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 012
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 12.6S9 171.3W2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 171.3W2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 14.4S9 169.2W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 16.6S3 167.4W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 18.9S8 165.4W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 21.5S8 163.1W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 27.6S5 159.5W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 170.8W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 160530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
AND 155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A WELL DEFINED EYE.
TC 19P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGH
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AN APPROACHING
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH (MSWT) WILL CAUSE TC 19P TO ACCELERATE
SLIGHTLY. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND NO SIGNIF-
ICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASED WIND SHEAR FROM
THE MSWT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3, 162100Z0,
170300Z1 AND 170900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.