Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B10 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 02:17:29 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 140600    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B10  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 14/0814 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [970HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 177.7W AT
140600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST 05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST.
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE
63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150
MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES
OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.  

OLAF, FOLLOWING NANCY'S FOOTSTEPS, HAS ALSO UNDERGONE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. PRESENCE OF AN IRREGULAR WHITE EYE
SURROUNDED IN A COLD MEDIUM GRAY SHADE RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.5,
MET=PAT=4.5. FT BASED ON MET: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. OLAF REMAINS IN A
REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LOW, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. STEERING
FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY WEAK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN PREDICTING AN ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS WESTERLY
STEERING INCREASES IN THE BROADER CIRCULATION AROUND NANCY. SOME
MODELS FORECAST AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES WITH OLAF
WEAKENING AND MERGING WITH NANCY IN 3-4 DAYS.   

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 9.9S 176.8W MOV SE 05KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 11.2S 175.5W MOV SE 10KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 12.8S 173.8W MOV SE 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 14.5S 171.8W MOV SE 15KT WITH 100KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.  

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
141430 UTC. 

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