Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 10:19:53 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 061619
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1415 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 3AXIS 1N79W  5N92W  5N102W  
8N117W  7N134W  8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 122W TO 133W. 

DISCUSSION...
W OF 125W...
UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 138W CONTINUES MOVING E DISPLACING 
TROUGH DOWNSTREAM AND SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRES.  SPLIT IN 
JETSTREAM ALLOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AS MOISTURE 
MOVES INTO BASIN WITH RIDGE.

FROM 100W TO 125W...
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG W COAST BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED 
ALTHOUGH CYCLONIC VORTEX REMAIN WELL N OF AREA WITH NOT 
SUFFICIENT IMPACT IN DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN FORECAST 
WATERS. TROUGH STILL ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG 100W 
INTO S CENTRAL MEXICO...SE TEXAS AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS RESULTS 
FROM CONVERGING WINDS.

E OF 100W...
STRONG MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO 
CREATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF 
REGION.  CONSEQUENTLY...SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER 
FORECAST WATERS IS NON-EXISTENT.

AT THE SURFACE...TEHUANTEPEC WIND DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE AND 
CONTINUE TO DECREASE NEXT 24 HRS.  WIND AT GULFS OF PAPAGAYO... 
FONSECA AND PANAMA CONTINUE WITH 20 TO 25 KT WIND WITH 
CONDITIONS PERSISTING NEXT 2 DAYS. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES

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