Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 18:40:10 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 040036
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 25/12/20042005
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12

2.A POSITION 2005/02/04 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6S / 57.3E 
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.5/3.5 /D  1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 060   SE: 080   SO: 080   NO: 060
50 KT       NE: 030   SE: 030   SO: 030   NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/04 12 UTC: 25.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=040KT.
24H: 2005/02/05 00 UTC: 28.0S/56.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2005/02/05 12 UTC: 31.0S/57.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/02/06 00 UTC: 34.6S/58.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/02/06 12 UTC: 37.9S/61.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/02/07 00 UTC: DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5
THE SYSTEM REMAINS SMALL AND CONTINUE INTENSIFYING.
THE SYSTEM PRESENTS A CLASSIC STRUCTURE OF CURVED 9 TENTHS BAND PATTERN
WITH LLCC LOCATED UNDER DEEP CONVECTION.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE MAINLY LOCATED IN THE EAST DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURES.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS BEFORE HEADING
SOUTHWARDS IN THE  DIRECTION OF THE TROUGH PRESENT TO THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM BEGIN NOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM COATS OF LA REUNION.

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