Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 16:30:26 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 012230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...4N77W  7N85W  5N112W  7N125W 
5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 101W TO 106W.
 
DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERED AREA N OF 20N WITH MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRYING AIR MASS N OF 21N FROM 120W TO 
135W.  BROAD SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE N OF 10N E OF 120W 
ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND ITS GULF.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
NEAR 25N 105W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS S TIP OF TEXAS AND ERN 
MEXICO WITH DIFFLUENT JET CORE INCREASING SPEEDS FROM 80 KT TO 
ABOVE 100 KT. 

AT HTE SURFACE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS E PAC S OF 10N
W OF 120W MAINTAINING STRONG WIND AROUND ITS PERIPHERY.
 
E OF 105W...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERED ENTIRE 
AREA E OF 105W.  SUBSIDENCE PREVENTS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT 
ALONG ITCZ.  STRONG WIND CONTINUE ACROSS BOTH GULF OF PANAMA AND 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS.  GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES E OF 95W 
IN SW GULF OF MEXICO. 

$$
WALLY BARNES

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