Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 15:48:45 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 082148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

..ITCZ...5N78W 6N87W 8N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS E OF 86W...AND BETWEEN 128W
AND 132W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
MUCH OF AREA REMAINS UNDER STRONG SW-W FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS BEING
PROVIDED BY COMBINATION OF LARGE LOW WELL N OF AREA NEAR THE
UNITED STATES PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY W OF AREA NEAR 142W. ACTIVE JET
STREAM WITH 100-120 KT WINDS EXTENDS N OF 29N FROM 130W TO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE A SOUTHERN BRANCH WITH SIMILAR WIND
SPEEDS EXTENDS FROM 21N-26N OVER AN AREA W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TO 130W. BOTH JET STREAMS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SW UNITED STATES...AS WELL AS OVER AREA N
OF 10N W OF 130W WHERE ITCZ MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN
NORTHEASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE... COMPLEX PATTERN IS IN PLACE AS
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N125W-28N140W...WITH A 1009 MB
LOW ALONG FRONT NEAR 30N134W. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM...THIS ONE
A COLD FRONT...EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE 1009 MB LOW SW TO 21N140W.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG...LARGE NORTHERLY
SWELLS WILL SPREAD OVER AREA N OF 20N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ADDING TO THIS...MODERATE SWELLS FROM SOUTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE N
ACROSS EQUATOR AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE MENTIONED SWELL TRAINS
MAKING QUITE CONFUSED SEAS IN MERGING SWELL HEIGHTS.

ELSEWHERE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 8N125W TO NEAR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MID/UPPER FLOW IS MORE NORTHERLY
BETWEEN 110W-120W...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY MID
LEVEL AIR MAINLY S OF 15N. AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 HIGH IS
LOCATED OFF THE BAJA COAST NEAR 26N117W.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 143W WILL MOVE E AND REACH 130W IN ABOUT
36 HOURS. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP N PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA
UNSETTLED AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOME...MAINLY ALONG 115W-120W...WHICH WILL
HELP TO KEEP AREA UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

E OF 110W...
STRONG SW-W FLOW NOTED W OF 110W EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
MEXICO MAINLY N OF 20N. S OF 20N...FLOW BECOMES LIGHTER AND OUT
OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NICARAGUA TO ABOUT 7N95W. E OF THE TROUGH...SLIGHTLY STRONG W
FLOW TO 50 KT EXTENDS S OF PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA. MOST OF AREA W OF TROUGH IS MARKED BY DRY AIR ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE. ALONG AND E OF TROUGH...SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...AS WELL AS OVER THE PACIFIC E OF 86W ALONG THE ITCZ.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRES STRENGTHENING OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

$$
MOLLEDA

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