Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert 072300z Jan 05//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 16:48:00 -0600

WTIO21 PGTW 072300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 072300Z JAN 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
85 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.0N3 85.5E8 TO 4.8N2 82.6E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 072130Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.5N8 84.7E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
3.7N0 84.7E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8 84.7N9, APPROXIMATELY
350 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO PERSIST OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). SPIRAL BANDS ARE BECOMING EVIDENT POINTING TO INCREASED
ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS OF THE
UPPER LEVELS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR AND ADEQUATE OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. HOWEVER,
MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS STILL EXISTS JUST WEST OF THE
FEATURE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 082251Z8.//

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