Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 02 Jan 2005 14:19:48 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (RAYMOND) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 15.2S8 124.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 124.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 16.0S7 125.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 16.5S2 127.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 124.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (RAYMOND) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
70 NM NORTH OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WAR-
NING POSITION IS BASED ON A 021803Z4 AMSU PASS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING AND THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY. THE SYS-
TEM IS FORECAST MAKE TO LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF KURI BAY,
AUSTRALIA. AVAILABLE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN APPROXIMATELY 6 TO 8 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WAR-
NINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6.//

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