Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 11:39:02 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9S4
77.3E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9S4 74.2E3, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EX-
POSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING,
AND DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD, AWAY FROM THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANAL-
YSIS INDICATES THAT A THIN BAND OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BOUNDED
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BY STRONGER SHEAR. DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS DE-
CREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, DESPITE A POINT SOURCE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EST-
IMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIF-
ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO
POOR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.4S8
42.7E3, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2S8 44.3E1, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT MICROWAVE IM-
AGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED OVER LAND IN SOUTH-
WESTERN MADAGASCAR TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES
GOOD POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN
THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY IS LOW BUT INCREASES SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.