Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B14 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 02:42:50 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 150600    
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B14  issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 15/0840 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [REASSESSED 945HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR
11.7S 174.6W AT 150600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS.
REASSESSED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100
KNOTS INCREASING TO 110 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33
KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.  

EYE STILL DISCERNIBLE ON EIR THOUGH UNDERGONE COOLING PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED FURTHER, WITH A CDG RING NOW
DEVELOPING AROUND THE LLCC.  DVORAK ASSESSMENT T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24 HRS.
DT, PT, AND MET ALL AGREE WITH 6.0. OLAF LIES IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SHEAR EXPECTED TO DECREASE
FURTHER ALONG SYSTEM'S TRACK. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.   

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 13.4S 172.8W MOV SE 13KT WITH 105KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 15.2S 170.6W MOV SE 13KT WITH 110KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 17.5S 168.7W MOV SE 13KT WITH 115KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 19.5S 167.1W MOV SE 13KT WITH 120KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.  

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OLAF WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
151430 UTC. 

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