Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 13:40:39 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 041939

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 28/12/20042005
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12  (GERARD)

2.A POSITION 2005/02/04 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.6S / 58.6E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 MOINS /D  0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 220   SE: 300   SO: 280   NO: 160
50 KT       NE: 110   SE: 110   SO: 090   NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/05 06 UTC: 32.1S/61.0E, MAX WIND=060KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2005/02/05 18 UTC: 35.5S/65.0E, MAX WIND=060KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2005/02/06 06 UTC: 38.8S/70.5E, MAX WIND=055KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/02/06 18 UTC: 41.0S/77.0E, MAX WIND=055KT , EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/02/07 06 UTC: 44.0S/90.0E, MAX WIND=055KT , EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CI=T=4.0+
EXTENTION OF WINDS ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA
THE SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING (BIG EYE CAN BE SEEN ON MICRO-WAVE
IMAGERY; SEE SSMI OF 1456Z), BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY SUFFER FROM A UPPER
LEVEL
 STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW .
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON  HEADING SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS JUST BEFORE
THE
TROUGH.=

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