Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 15:11:15 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 242130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/242130Z-250600ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.0N3
178.0E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.4N6 179.4E1, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF HOWLAND. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW. QUICKSCAT REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3 179.0W7
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 179.6W3, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM NORTHWEST OF
WESTERN SAMOA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
INDICATED IN A 241752Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES-
SURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
       (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 1.B.(1) AND UPGRADED PARA
2.B.(1) TO GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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