Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Vii And Metarea Viii (s)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 00:21:42 -0600

WTIO22 FMEE 150613
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/02/2005 AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY   15/02/2005 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 1001 HPA 
POSITION:           22.0S / 54.5E 
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES  SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS BETWEEN 50 NM AND 350 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 75 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
  BETWEEN 60 NM AND 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN  QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/02/15 AT 18 UTC: 
22.5S / 53.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/02/16 AT 06 UTC: 
23.0S / 52.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTRE REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE CLUSTER.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON REGULARLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THEN SLOW DOWN AS A
TROUGH SHIFTS IN THE SOUTH.
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION.
STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES.

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

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