Subject: Indian-S: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2005 18:21:42 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 280020

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 6/11/20042005
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11  (FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/28 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.4S / 42.9E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 060   SE: 070   SO: 050   NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/28 12 UTC: 22.6S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2005/01/29 00 UTC: 22.1S/43.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2005/01/29 12 UTC: 21.3S/42.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/01/30 00 UTC: 20.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/01/30 12 UTC: 19.2S/40.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.
72H: 2005/01/31 00 UTC: 18.0S/39.0E, MAX WIND=040KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+.
CENTRE IS ESTIMATED UNDER CONVECTION, BUT THE SYSTEM IS HARDLY
INTENSIFYING DUE TO THE APPROACH OF COASTS.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL, AND THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS WHILE
ACCELERATING, DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST.=

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