Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 06:18:54 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 241217

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 1/15/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 15

2.A POSITION 2005/02/24 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.4S / 83.8E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/25 00 UTC: 08.7S/83.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/25 12 UTC: 09.2S/82.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/26 00 UTC: 09.7S/82.1E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/02/26 12 UTC: 10.2S/81.7E, MAX WIND=040KT.
60H: 2005/02/27 00 UTC: 10.8S/81.1E, MAX WIND=045KT.
72H: 2005/02/27 12 UTC: 11.5S/80.5E, MAX WIND=045KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE, AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
GOOD.
THE SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO PROGRESSIVELY INTENSIFY.

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OR REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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