Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 00:42:24 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 310641

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 17/11/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11  (EX-FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/31 AT 0600 UTC :
22.2S / 50.5E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/31 18 UTC: 22.0S/50.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/01 06 UTC: 22.5S/49.2E, MAX WIND=020KT.
36H: 2005/02/01 18 UTC: 24.0S/49.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
48H: 2005/02/02 06 UTC: 25.7S/50.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2005/02/02 18 UTC: 27.5S/51.0E DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BADLY ORGANIZED. EX-FELAPI SHOULD REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THEN THE RESIDUAL
CIRCULATION SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS, WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.=

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