Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 15:44:29 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 072144
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 7N100W 6N120W 7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 76W-80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 83W-86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS W OF 136W.

..DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
A HIGHLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA WITH A PAIR OF
UPPER LEVEL LOWS CENTERED OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST AND OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE UPPER FLOW S OF THESE FEATURES EXTENDS INTO
THE AREA AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY SWIFT 70-90 KT JET STREAM AT
250 MB. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS WHICH
ARE QUICKLY SKIRTING THROUGH THE AREA ON A DAY-BY-DAY BASIS.
CURRENTLY...A 988 MB STORM CENTER IS MOVING INLAND NEAR SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILS INTO THE AREA
ALONG 32N120W 28N124W 24N131W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATING THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND OVER THE NRN BAJA
PENINSULA. FARTHER W...A SECOND COLD FRONT HAS JUST APPROACHED
140W FROM THE W AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N
OF 25N BETWEEN 132W-140W. ELSEWHERE...A PAIR OF UPPER RIDGES ARE
CENTERED ALONG 5N135W 17N127W AND FROM 7N112W NEWD TOWARDS
ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WESTERNMOST RIDGE FROM 4N-21N W OF 120W BUT
THERE IS LITTLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

E OF 100W...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST SINCE YESTERDAY
AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS GUATEMALA SWWD
TO 2N100W. THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 100W IS DOMINATED BY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SO CONVECTION IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE VALUES HAVE BEEN INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM
EAST TO WEST JUST OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AND A FEW TSTMS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FORM ALONG THE ITCZ W OF COLOMBIA. ONLY THE
GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE ACTIVE AT THE MOMENT
RESULTING FROM STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
BERG

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.