Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 17:57:58 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 022100    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 02/2353 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15S 168W AT
022100 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND 022001Z SSMI DATA. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 12S
169W 14S 165W 16S 167W 14.5S 168W 14S 169W 12S 169W. 

SYSTEM ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL CDO. RECENT HIRES QUIKSCAT DATA
INDICATE POSSIBLE GALES IN NORTHWEST SECTOR. SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ENHANCED BY STRONG CROSS
EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED IN SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON MET=2.0. PT=2.5 BUT FT IS CONSTRAINED BY
INITIAL ANALYSIS TIME OF 020000 UTC TO T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN
ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATER.   

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC 15.0S 166.3W MOV ENE AT 04 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC 14.9S 165.5W MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC 15.4S 164.2W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC 16.7S 163.0W MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 030230
UTC.

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