Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 07:32:44 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 191400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/191400Z-191800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190752ZJAN2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191321ZJAN2005//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 190600Z6, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.3S7 77.1E5, APPROXIMATELY 1190 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 190900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S3
52.9E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 49.2E5, APPROXIMATELY 715 NM NORTH-
WEST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMA-
GERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. ADDITIONALLY, MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT DECOUP-
LING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A
DECREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUS-
TAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. SEE REF B (WTXS22
PGTW 191330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT DETAILED IN PARA 2.B.(1)
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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