Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 12:13:13 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 011811

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 20/11/20042005
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 11  (EX-FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/02/01 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.8S / 49.8E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE:       SE: 100   SO: 100   NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/02 06 UTC: 28.3S/49.4E, MAX WIND=030KT , SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2005/02/02 18 UTC: 29.4S/49.5E, MAX WIND=025KT , SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2005/02/03 06 UTC: 29.5S/48.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING.
48H: 2005/02/03 18 UTC: 28.4S/48.3E DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
WINDS ARE STRONGER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF EX-FELAPI  DUE TO
THE
GRADIANT.
A NEW TROUGH IS ARRIVING SOUTH, THEN A NEW CELL OF HIGH PRESSIONS IS
QUICKLY COMING.
  EX-FELAPI IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR WEAKENING.=

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