Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B28 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2005 14:18:55 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 181800    
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B28  issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 18/2016 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF CENTRE [950HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0S 160.9W
AT 181800 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED
TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF THE CENTRE,
WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES ELSEWHERE, WINDS ABOVE 33
KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 180 MILES OF THE CENTRE ELSEWHERE.  

EYE NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WARMING STEADILY DUE
STRENGTHENING SHEAR. CONVECTIVE BAND STILL WRAPS TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC.
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND DECREASING ELSEWHERE.
DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON CURVED BAND WRAPPING 1.4 ON LOG10 SPIRAL.
DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. CI HELD AT 5.5; FT BASED ON DT:
T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER
WEAKENING AND SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.      

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC NEAR 29.0S 160.5W MOV SSE 20KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC NEAR 33.0S 160.4W MOV SSW 20KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC NEAR 35.8S 161.0W MOV SSW 15KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 201800 UTC NEAR 37.8S 162.0W MOV SSW 10KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.  

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLAF FROM
RSMC NADI. 

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