Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 12:22:13 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 251820

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 3/15/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 15

2.A POSITION 2005/02/25 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2S / 83.3E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/26 06 UTC: 11.9S/82.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/26 18 UTC: 12.6S/82.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/27 06 UTC: 13.7S/82.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/27 18 UTC: 14.9S/82.7E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2005/02/28 06 UTC: 15.8S/83.2E, MAX WIND=045KT.
72H: 2005/02/28 18 UTC: 16.8S/83.8E, MAX WIND=050KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONSREMAIN GOOD, BUT THE LOW LEVEL IN
FLOW IS RATHER POOR

SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OR REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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