Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 11:36:16 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN /131800Z-141800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACTMETOCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8
84.7N9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N9 88.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING NEAR AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW POTENTIAL AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
123.5E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2 123.5E1, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.8S4
86.9E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5S1 86.8E2, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A POSSIBLE LLCC WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLIC DEEP
CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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