Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 18:17:16 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 240015

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 22/8/20042005
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/24 AT 0000 UTC :
28.3S / 47.9E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL
NINE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 3.0/3.5 MOINS /W  1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 110   SE: 110   SO: 110   NO: 110
50 KT       NE: 020   SE: 020   SO: 020   NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/24 12 UTC: 31.5S/51.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2005/01/25 00 UTC: 34.9S/57.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2005/01/25 12 UTC: 38.8S/63.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/01/26 00 UTC: 42.5S/71.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ERNEST  QUICKLY EVACUATES WITH THE TROUGH. IT SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL
 DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN OTHER CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD STILL GENERATE
HEAVY
RAINFALLS OVER THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.=

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