Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 08:11:29 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 311430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/311430Z-311800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311351ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2
69.4E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2 65.4E5, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 310920Z5 AMSR-E AQUA PASS INDICATES THAT THE
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS ENTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF
COOLER AIR, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIMINISHED OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
DECREASED ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR. SEE REF A (WTXS21
PGTW 311400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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