Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 06:43:11 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 201241

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 12/9/20042005
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9  (DAREN)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/20 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 70.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/3.0 /W  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 060   SE: 090   SO: 090   NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/21 00 UTC: 16.8S/68.4E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/01/21 12 UTC: 17.4S/66.1E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/01/22 00 UTC: 18.1S/63.7E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/01/22 12 UTC: 18.9S/61.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/01/23 00 UTC: 19.3S/59.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/01/23 12 UTC: 19.9S/56.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=3.0
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG NORTHERLY TO
WESTNORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SINCE THE END OF LAST NIGHT AND LLCC
IS
NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST ON SHIPPING THE LLCC
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS NOT FAR ON THE NORTH OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS BUT
WEAKENING PROGRESSIVELY.=

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