Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Vii And Metarea Viii (s)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 21:21:22 -0600

WTIO22 FMEE 140007
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 14/02/2005 AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY    14/02/2005 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 1003 HPA 
POSITION:          WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2S / 57.7E 
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO
 300 NM IN THE  EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF
THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25/30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS  IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
  SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/02/14 AT 12 UTC: 
21.6S / 56.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT.
24H, VALID 2005/02/15 AT 00 UTC: 
22.0S / 55.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT INTENSIFY AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. IT IS NOW
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
SHORTLY, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

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