Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 03:45:46 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 180945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS AXIS 3N78W 2N86W 4N93W 3N108W
7N125W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
MAIN FEATURE IS A POSITIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ
NEAR 28N112W SWWD THROUGH 22N120W TO 12N132W. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT IS INDICATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE TROUGH FROM 8N TO 20N BETWEEN 123W AND 135W. A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES NW OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NWD OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS N OF 23N W OF 137W.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN THE AREA EXCEPT FOR NORTH OF 20N E OF
131W WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE TROPICS NEWD JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS AND IS MOVING OVER THE LOWER PART OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. 80-90 KT JET MAX CAPS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE. JET INCREASES TO OVER 100 KT OVER NRN MEXICO INTO
TEXAS.

E OF 110W...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FOUND IN THE AREA AND IS THE RESULT OF
A LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.  MOST OF
THIS AREA IS VERY DRY ALOFT INDICATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. AT THE SURFACE CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND
IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST NEARLY 500 NM FROM THE COAST. STRONG SURFACE FLOW OVER
THE ISTHMUS WITH GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  NE
SWELL FROM THIS AREA OF WIND WILL SPREAD S OF EQUATOR BY 36
HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AS WELL WITHIN 48
HOURS.

$$
COBB

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