Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 15:54:20 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 052154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 1N79W 6N92W 6N106W 10N114W 
7N121W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM 
OF AXIS W OF 137W. 

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OF THE AREA HAS MEAN AXIS ALONG 8N140W 
26N144W TO 37N143W. ITS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THIS 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 10N W OF 130W WITH UPPER MOISTURE SPILLING 
ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS TO NEAR 23N124W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW 
BECOMES CYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED 
NEAR 26N110W. ALTHOUGH THIS CYCLONE IS LOSING IDENTITY ITS 
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS BEING RE-ENFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE 
CURRENTLY DIGGING SSE ALONG 33N124W. THE UPPER CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION STILL DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 7N BETWEEN 128W AND 
108W. MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN 180 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N112W 20N115W 13N130W. AT THE SURFACE 
THERE IS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 32N135W TO 22N112W.

THE UPPER FLOW EXTENDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH THE FLOW SPLITTING NEAR 12N113W...WITH 
ONE BRANCH TURNING CYCLONICALLY NE AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CONUS. WHERE THE UPPER FLOW SPLITS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH 
LIES ALONG 10N120W 22N107W. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE...AND OCCASIONALLY ISOLATED STRONG... 
CONVECTION E OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH. CURRENTLY THE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 7N112W TO 20N108W. THE UPPER FLOW 
THAT CONTINUES NE IS ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS 
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO WITH THE PLUME SPREADING 
OUT OVER MUCH THE CENTRAL CONUS.

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
ESTIMATED OVER COLOMBIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 22N E OF 94W AND IS 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE...NLY 20 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS INCLUDING THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND 
FONSECA AND PANAMA AND THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME 
MOSTLY DIURNAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WAS EXTENDED EARLIER...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
BELOW GALE FORCE IN 24 HOURS.
 
$$
NELSON

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