Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 11:07:57 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 311800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/311800ZJAN-011800ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2
69.4E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2 65.4E5, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AND DRY AIR IS NOW BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN FROM
THE WEST. A 311415Z5 SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED IN
ALMOST ALL QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
AFRICA ACROSS MADAGASCAR. DIVERGENCE IS FAVORABLE ALONG THE OUTFLOW
REGION, BUT 850 MB VORTICITY HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH-
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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