Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 22:26:19 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 300426
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG  4N77W  6N85W  4N94W 
6N107W  5N117W  7N130W  6N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 90W. 

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W
STRONG UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER WELL N OF AREA SW TO 30N115W...20N129W AND 4N131W.  HEFTY
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER N BAJA CALIFORNIA FINALLY 
MAKING DENT IN WELL ANCHORED RIDGE E OF 105W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
ALONG AND W OF LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS COVERS ENTIRE AREA W OF 
128W.  STRONG JET CORE OF 110-115 KT ON E SIDE OF TROUGH 
ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO S HALF OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO AND INTO S CENTRAL TEXAS.  FAIRLY ZONAL 
WIND CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM OF CREST OF BROAD RIDGE E OF AREA 
DOES NOT PROVIDE SOURCES OF UPWARD FORCING OF MOISTURE AT THIS 
TIME. 

AT THE SURFACE...WITH SO MUCH DRYNESS ACROSS E PAC...ITCZ LACKS 
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  MOST OF MOISTURE 
ADVECTION REMAINS N OF CONVERGENCE ZONE.  

E OF 105W
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST AND CONFLUENT WIND COMBINE TO MAINTAIN 
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 100W.  DRYNESS BROKEN BY PATCH OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM 3N TO 9N E OF 95W WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ SUPPLIES SOME UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF COSTA RICA-HONDURAS BORDER.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WIND ACROSS CARIBBEAN BASIN SPILL OVER 
INTO E PAC THROUGH PANAMA...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO GAPS WHILE 
SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES STRONG WIND ACROSS 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HR 
BEFORE ABATING ALL TOGETHER.  

$$
WALLY BARNES

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