Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A19 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 08:14:53 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 151200    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 15/1405 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NANCY CENTRE [950HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 158.8W
AT 151200 UTC MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE
SOUTHSOUTHWEST. CYCLONE WEAKENING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/10
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 95
KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE, DECREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE, ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE. 

SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS OVER NANCY. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED
ON EMBEDDED CENTRE YIELDING DT=5.0, MET=5.0 AND PAT=4.5. FINAL T
BASED ON DT: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/12HRS. NANCY REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE AND OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST. STEERING OVER
SYSTEM HAS TURNED NORTHERLY AND EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY AROUND
25S DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON GRADUAL WEAKENING AND A SOUTHWEST TRACK IN THE
SHORT TERM, AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH OLAF LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST MAY CAUSE
NANCY TO DRIFT SOUTHSOUTHEAST IN THE OUTLOOK ACCORDING TO SOME
MODELS.   

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 21.5S 158.8W MOV S 10KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 23.2S 159.5W MOV SSW 10KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC NEAR 24.5S 160.7W MOV SW 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC NEAR 25.7S 151.9W MOV SW 10KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NANCY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 152000 UTC. 

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