Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 20:35:29 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 170001
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 26/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/17 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 51.5E 
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /W  0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/17 12 UTC: 21.4S/51.0E, MAX WIND=020KT.
24H: 2005/02/18 00 UTC: 21.5S/50.5E, MAX WIND=020KT.
36H: 2005/02/18 12 UTC: 21.6S/50.0E FILLING UP.
48H: 2005/02/19 00 UTC: 21.7S/49.5E FILLING UP.
60H: 2005/02/19 12 UTC: 21.9S/49.0E DISSIPATED.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WHICH
SHOULD INTENSIFY.
THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF
THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION.
WINDS ARE CALIBRATED ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AT 1357Z.

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