Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 12:28:40 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 201826

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 13/9/20042005
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9  (DAREN)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/20 AT 1800 UTC :
16.2S / 69.0E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.5 /W  1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 040   SE: 070   SO: 070   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/21 06 UTC: 17.0S/66.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/01/21 18 UTC: 17.6S/64.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/01/22 06 UTC: 18.2S/62.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/01/22 18 UTC: 18.8S/60.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/01/23 06 UTC: 19.7S/58.0E FILLING UP.
72H: 2005/01/23 18 UTC: 21.2S/56.2E FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2. AND CI=2.5+
THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A MODERATE TO RATHER STRONG NORTHERLY TO
WESTNORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LLCC IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THE DRY ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS
 UNFAVORABLE TO REINTENSIFICATION.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS MAKE THE RESIDUAL VORTEX TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, IN THE VICINITUY OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS,
FILLING
UP IT.=

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