Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 06:17:10 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 311215

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 11/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/01/31 AT 1200 UTC :
16.6S / 65.2E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/01 00 UTC: 17.0S/64.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/01 12 UTC: 17.7S/62.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/02 00 UTC: 18.3S/61.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2005/02/02 12 UTC: 19.3S/60.5E, MAX WIND=045KT.
60H: 2005/02/03 00 UTC: 20.2S/59.6E, MAX WIND=050KT.
72H: 2005/02/03 12 UTC: 21.0S/58.5E, MAX WIND=055KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS SYTEM LOOKS LIKE A MONSOON DEPRESSION, AND DVORAK ANALYSIS IS
NOT
AVAILABLE AT PRESENT. WINDS ARE WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, AND REACH
20/25
 KT FAR FROM THE CENTRE WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS; IN THE NORTH, IN THE
MONSOON FLOW, AND EAST OF 65E.
ENVIRONEMENT IS A T PRESENT UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION ;
WESTERLY
WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE TO STRONG, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS NOT GOOD
(EXISTENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW), AND AIR IS DRY IN THE WESTERN
SECTOR.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, SLOWLY INTENSFYING.=

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