Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 07:58:23 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 121200    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 12/1349 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 166.7W
AT 121200 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 30 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 50
MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 

A SMALL CDO HAS APPEARED JUST EAST OF THE LLCC RECENTLY. CONVECTION
WRAPS 0.55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. DT, MET AND
PT AGREE AT 2.5. 09F REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR AND THIS HAS RETARDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM SOFAR. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO STEER 09F SOUTHWARDS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STARTED TO DIFFER IN OPINION ABOUT 09F. BRACKNELL
AND NOGAPS FAVOUR INTENSIFICATION OF DEPRESSION 08F LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 09F. ECMWF, GFS AND GFDL SUPPORT 09F AT THE EXPENSE OF
08F.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 09F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
122030 UTC. 

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