Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2005 06:32:26 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 271231

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 4/11/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11

2.A POSITION 2005/01/27 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 41.3E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /W  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/28 00 UTC: 22.4S/41.8E, MAX WIND=035KT.
24H: 2005/01/28 12 UTC: 22.8S/42.0E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2005/01/29 00 UTC: 23.1S/41.4E, MAX WIND=045KT.
48H: 2005/01/29 12 UTC: 22.7S/40.7E, MAX WIND=055KT.
60H: 2005/01/30 00 UTC: 22.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=065KT.
72H: 2005/01/30 12 UTC: 21.0S/39.0E, MAX WIND=075KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-.
CONVECTION IS NOW BETTER ORGANIZED. CENTRE IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN
EDGE
 OF THE CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
AND
THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS.=

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