Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2005 00:36:45 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 270635

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 3/11/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11

2.A POSITION 2005/01/27 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0S / 41.0E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/27 18 UTC: 22.4S/41.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.
24H: 2005/01/28 06 UTC: 22.8S/41.1E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2005/01/28 18 UTC: 23.2S/40.8E, MAX WIND=050KT.
48H: 2005/01/29 06 UTC: 23.0S/39.8E, MAX WIND=060KT.
60H: 2005/01/29 18 UTC: 22.4S/39.0E, MAX WIND=070KT.
72H: 2005/01/30 06 UTC: 21.5S/38.5E, MAX WIND=080KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-. POSITION CENTRE LOCATED AT A DISTANCE < 0.75AO FROM THE
CLUSTER
. POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IS GOOD (ACTIVE MJO PHASE, GOOD LOW
LEVEL
 INFLOW WITH ESTABLISHED MONSOON AND TRADE WINDS FLOWS, WARM SST, 28
TO
30AOC, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE).=

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