Subject: FIJI:

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 01:57:54 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 120600

PART 01

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 12/0754 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 160.3E
AT 120600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 250
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED. DVORAK BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN. POORLY
DEFINED LLCC LOCATED ABOUT 0.5 DEGREES NORTH OF DEEP CONVECTION
YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. DVORAK ANALYSIS T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS. WARNINGS ON
TC KERRY IS PRIMARY ISSUED BY BRISBANE AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CURVE SOUTHWEST AND BE LOCATED IN THEIR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.
KERRY IS EXPECTED TO BE CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND BE STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. DRY AIR INTRUSION
AT LOWER LEVELS ALSO APPARENT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME
SUPRESSED. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. TC KERRY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT RECURVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
SST AROUND 27C. MOST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN KERRY WHILE
RECURVING IT TOWARDS TO SOUTHWEST.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 22.2S 160.1E MOV SSW AT 5 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 23.4S 158.8E MOV SW AT 8 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :

END PART 01

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