Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 14:27:25 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z1 --- NEAR 14.2S7 43.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 43.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 16.1S8 42.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 18.2S1 41.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 20.5S7 41.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 22.7S1 42.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 43.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC 12S HAS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ENANCED BY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL OUTLFOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 201426Z5 TRMM PASS INDICATES A MORE SYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TC 12S THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE AS UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND CONTINUED OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 AND 212100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
11S (DAREN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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