Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 14:48:57 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 251800    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 25/2010 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [960 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 175.0W
AT 251800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES 9 & 10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND
INTENSIFYING. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS CLOSE TO
CENTRE INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR
FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

A RAGGED EYE HAS APPEARED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE
PATTERN WITH CMG EYE WITH CDG SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.5, MET=4.0 AND
PAT=4.5. FT BASED ON PAT: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS. DVORAK CONSTRAINTS
BROKEN. PERCY REMAINS IN A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD IN
ALL QUADRANTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
PERCY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE SYSTEM FURTHER. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
IS LOW AND ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW ALONG PROJECTED TRACK. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY STEERED BY DEEP EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON INITIAL EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK, BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND DECELERATION WITH FURTHER INTESIFICATION.  

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 9.8S 172.6W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 10.4S 171.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 11.0S 170.0W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 11.6S 169.5W MOV SSE AT 5 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 260200 UTC. 

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