Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A14 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 02:07:48 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 080600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 08/0804 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [970HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 160.0E
AT 080600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AVERAGE 24 HOUR
MOVEMENT WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS. WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER
47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES
OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

SYSTEM ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. EMBEDDED CENTRE WITH LG
SHADE GIVES DT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT AND PT=4.5. DVORAK ANALYSIS
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS. TC KERRY IS MOVING WSW TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH IN NW
SECTOR, BUT ENHANCED IN SE SECTOR BY DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
250 HPA TROUGH. REDUCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALLOWS FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TC KERRY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS A LOW
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEAKEN IN THE 12-48 HOUR
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SST AROUND 29C. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST SLOWING WSW MOVEMENT THEN EITHER A TURN TO W OR WNW
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OR RECURVATURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 18.8S 159.3E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 19.1S 158.9E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 19.2S 158.5E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 19.5S 158.1E MOV SW AT 5 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC KERRY AS IT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO BRISBANE'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS.

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