Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B7 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 08:05:23 -0600

WTPS12 NFFN 131200    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B7  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 13/1400 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 177.5W AT
131200 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW-MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 35
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING PAST 6 HOURS.
CDO DEVELOPING FURTHER AND INCREASING. CONVECTIVE TOPS CONTINUE TO
COOL. SPIRAL BANDING TRYING TO WRAP AROUND CDO. A BANDING EYE IS
EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. DVORAK ASSESSMENT YIELDS MET=3.0,
PT=2.5: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 30C. 08F REMAINS IN A REGION
OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF A WEAK EAST-WEST TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR IS LOW AND STEERING OVER THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY WEAK.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT PREDICTING AN ACCELERATION
TOWARDS THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.   

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.  

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
132030 UTC. 

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.