Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A14 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 14:38:57 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 051800    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 05/2034 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [940HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 162.3W
AT 051800 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9&10 EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 05/1727 UTC SSM/I IMAGE. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 13 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 100 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70
MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE
EXTENDING 200 MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. 

MEENA INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS, WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE. BANDS WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND CDO WITH TOPS COOLING TO
-86C. SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITH SOME
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD AND IS ENHANCED IN THE
SOUTHEAST SECTOR BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH EYE NUMBER OF 5 AND 0.5 ADJ YIELDING DT=PT=5.5:
T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS. CYCLONE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DUE TO
DECREASING SHEAR AND WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST
STEERING MEENA SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH AN ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.   

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 18.8S 161.2W MOV SE AT 13 KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 21.4S 159.6W MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 24.1S 157.0W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 26.4S 153.6W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 115
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC MEENA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 060230 UTC.

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