Subject: Indian-S: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 00:27:59 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 280621

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 7/11/20042005
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11  (FELAPI)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/28 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4S / 43.4E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /S  0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 050   SE: 050   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/28 18 UTC: 24.7S/43.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/01/29 06 UTC: 22.9S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/01/29 18 UTC: 21.3S/41.6E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/01/30 06 UTC: 20.2S/40.3E, MAX WIND=035KT.
60H: 2005/01/30 18 UTC: 19.4S/39.2E, MAX WIND=040KT.
72H: 2005/01/31 06 UTC: 18.5S/37.6E, MAX WIND=040KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+.
THE LLCC CENTRE IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED, OFF TOLIARI. CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINS ARE NOW OVERLAND, EAST OF THE LLCC. FELAPI IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN MALGASY COAST DURING 24 HOURS, BEFORE
CURVING NORTHWESTWARDS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST, SPEEDING
 UP AND INTENSIFYING
 SLIGHTLY.

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