Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 12:17:39 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 311815

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 12/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/01/31 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 65.0E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/01 06 UTC: 18.4S/63.6E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/01 18 UTC: 19.0S/62.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/02 06 UTC: 19.5S/61.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/02/02 18 UTC: 20.3S/60.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/02/03 06 UTC: 20.9S/59.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
72H: 2005/02/03 18 UTC: 21.5S/58.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS SYTEM LOOKS LIKE A MONSOON DEPRESSION, AND DVORAK ANALYSIS IS
NOT
AVAILABLE AT PRESENT.
WINDS ARE WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, TOTALLY EXPOSED, AND REACH 20/25
KT
FAR FROM THE CENTRE WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS, IN THE NORTH, IN THE
MONSOON
 FLOW, AND EAST OF 65E.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS.=

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