Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 02:44:22 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 22.0S4 159.3W8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 159.3W8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 23.8S3 158.8W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 25.9S6 157.9W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 28.0S0 156.3W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 29.9S0 153.5W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 159.2W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT
ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPID
DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND
170900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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