Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 00:19:24 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 030618

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 22/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12

2.A POSITION 2005/02/03 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8S / 59.6E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 030   SE: 030   SO: 030   NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/03 18 UTC: 23.2S/58.0E, MAX WIND=040KT.
24H: 2005/02/04 06 UTC: 25.1S/56.7E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2005/02/04 18 UTC: 28.1S/56.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/02/05 06 UTC: 31.6S/57.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/02/05 18 UTC: 34.5S/58.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2005/02/06 06 UTC: 37.4S/61.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING ABOVE THE CENTRE, ACCORDING TO LATEST
MICRO-WAVE
 SATELLITE IMAGERY (SSMI OF 0240 AND N15 DE 0211), SHOWING THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS TRANSITION AS A CLASSICAL
TROPICAL
SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS,
BEFORE TRACKING QUICKLY SOUTHWARDS IN THE TROUGH.=

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