Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 08:25:10 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 061200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
JAN 06/1422 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [987HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 169.3E
AT 061200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION.  CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 45 KNOTS DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE IN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS.  WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

THE SYSTEM HAS INDICATED SIGNS OF WEAKENING. CIRCULATION IS BEGINING
TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE LAND MASS. THE BANDING FEATURE AND CONVECTION
HAS ALSO WEAKENED SINCE PAST 12 HOURS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND
IS PLACED JUST EAST OF LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DRAWN INTO NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SST AROUND
30C. BANDING FEATURE WITH WRAP OF 0.45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS DT 0F
2.5. PT AND MET SUGGESTS 3.0. FT BASED ON DT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
T2.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS. TC KERRY REMAINS IN A WEAK UPPER [250 HPA]
TROUGH AREA. UPPER OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN EASTERN SECTORS. ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR STILL REMAINS WEAK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
KERRY WHILE MOVING IT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 15.9S 166.8E MOV WSW AT 13 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 16.7S 163.8E MOV WSW AT 14 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 17.2S 161.2E MOV WSW AT 13 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 17.7S 158.8E MOV WSW AT 13 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON  WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
061930 UTC.

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