Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 08:19:24 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 251200    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 25/1412 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [975 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 176.5W
AT 251200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND
INTENSIFYING. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO
CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES
OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO EAST TO SOUTH
AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION INCREASED MARKEDLY PAST 24 HOURS WITH CDO
INCREASING AND COOLING STEADILY. CONVECTION WRAPPING MORE TIGHTLY
AROUND CDO. EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL OCCURING. FORMATION OF EYE
ONLY A MATTER OF TIME, NOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND
WRAPPING 1.0 TO 1.1 ON LOG10 SPIRAL [3.5], WITH W BANDING [+O.5],
YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS. IF EMBEDDED CENTRE USED THEN DT WILL BE
AROUND 5.0. PERCY LIES UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW
DEVELOPING. VERTICAL SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE FURTHER ALONG
TRACK. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY DEEP MONSOON WESTERLY FLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON INITIAL EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK BEFORE TURNING
MORE SOUTHEAST WITH  FURTHER INTESIFICATION.  

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 9.6S 174.2W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 10.3S 172.1W MOV ESE AT 12 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 10.8S 170.7W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 11.6S 169.5W MOV ESE AT 9 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 252000 UTC. 

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