Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 13:17:34 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 301840
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 8/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12

2.A POSITION 2005/01/30 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3S / 69.5E 
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.5/2.5 /D  0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/31 06 UTC: 19.5S/68.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/01/31 18 UTC: 19.9S/67.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/02/01 06 UTC: 19.7S/65.5E, MAX WIND=040KT.
48H: 2005/02/01 18 UTC: 19.5S/63.5E, MAX WIND=050KT.
60H: 2005/02/02 06 UTC: 19.3S/63.0E, MAX WIND=050KT.
72H: 2005/02/02 18 UTC: 20.3S/62.5E, MAX WIND=050KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAIN CONFUSED WITH SEVERAL POSSIBLE CENTERS.
THE MENTIONNED CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE THE MAIN  BUT ANOTHER CENTER IS
REVEALED BY RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 16.4S/69.3E .
SYSTEM IS TRACKING YET QUICKLY SOUTHWARDS IN THE DIRECTION OF A TROUGH
BECAUSE HIGH PRESSURES ARE MOVING EASTWARDS BUT IS EXPECTED PROGRESSIVLY
TO RECURVE ITS TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS IN THE NORTHEN EDGE OF
 THE HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN SOUTHWEST.
IT IS EXPECTED INTENSIFYING SLOWLY .

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