Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 11:43:22 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
2.6N8 84.5E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9N2 84.0E2, APPROXIMATELY
295 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLING CONVECTION OVER A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN END OF A WEAK, ELONGATED TROUGH. THE MOST RECENT
UW-CIMSS CHARTS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL VOR-
TICITY IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA, RESOLVING MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY FURTHER EAST WHERE MOST OF THE MODELS INITIALIZE ON
A CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A RE-
GION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXISTS JUST WEST OF THE FEATURE. THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPERIENCING SOME OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIREC-
TION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1 99.7E5,
APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT 061131Z2 QUIKSCAT
PASS DEPICTS A SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH CONVERGENT BANDING WRAPPING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A 061410Z2 SSMI PASS INDICATES POSSIBLE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES SPIRALING IN TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE MOST
RECENT UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOWS A REGION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IND-
ICATES THAT THE FEATURE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROP-
ICAL RIDGE AXIS, BOUNDED BY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR FROM EASTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH AND POSSESSES GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIR-
ECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. MINI-
MUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
THE EXISTENCE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LLCC,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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