Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 08 Feb 2005 15:51:08 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 082150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 4N77W 6N95W 4N105W 11N120W 
8N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 93W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 2N148W. THE UPPER FLOW IS 
ANTICYCLONICALLY SE INTO THE REGION  OF 13N ALONG 140W...AND 
CONTINUES SE TO NEAR 3N120W WITH ONE BRANCH TURNING NE AND THE 
OTHER BRANCH DIVING BACK ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 110W.
  
AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 25N125W IS NOW DRIFTING NNE WITH 
ANOTHER WEAKER CYCLONE NOTED NEAR 23N134W. TOGETHER THESE 
CYCLONES DEFINE THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW THAT DOMINATED THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 121W. MODERATE TO STRONG DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED SW OF OF LINE ALONG 30N132W 20N120W 
1S123W.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES IS CENTERED AT 30N130W 1023 MB... 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 21N101W. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO 
BLOCK THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED 
ALONG 32N136W 27N143W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 10N91W WITH ANTICYCLONIC  
FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 120W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS ALONG 10N127W TO 20N115W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING E 
OF THE TROUGH...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 
10N121W 23N114W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS 
ADVECTED NE BY A WIND MAXIMA ALONG THE E PERIPHERY OF THE 
MID-UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE RESULTANT PLUME SPREADING NE ACROSS 
THE SE NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE S-CENTRAL CONUS. OTHERWISE 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED SE OF POINTS 3N105W 
20N100W 27N80W...AND CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR 
THE SMALL AREA ALONG THE ITCZ.

AN ITCZ AXIS S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 4S80W 3S120W IS NOT AS WELL 
DEFINED AS 24 HOURS AGO. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS AT THE MOMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH ALL THE OROGRAPHIC GAPS..TEHUANTEPEC... 
PAPAGAYO... FONSECA AND PANAMA THROUGH WED...THEN INCREASE TO 30 
KT THU WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.  

$$
NELSON

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