Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Cancellation/311351zjan2005//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 08:03:59 -0600

WTXS21 PGTW 311400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/311351ZJAN2005//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351Z JAN 05//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 301400)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 301400). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 69.4E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
16.5S2 65.4E5, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 310920Z5 AMSR-E AQUA
PASS INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS ENTERING AN
ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER AIR, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
DECREASED ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//

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