Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 11:14:18 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/151800Z-161800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACTMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351ZJAN2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151451ZJAN2005//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 151200Z9, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B WAS LOCATED
NEAR 4.9N3 86.5E9, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 151500)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.3S8 121.7E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 117.5E4, APPROXI-
MATELY 370 NM NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN
HE IMMEDIATE VICINITY AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIF-
ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9S4
89.5E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3S9 88.5E1, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY RE-
VEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE EST-
IMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS RE-
MAINS POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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