Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A13 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Feb 2005 08:17:10 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 051200    
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A13 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 05/1414 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [960hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 162.9W
AT 051200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES10 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND 0805 UTC SSMI IMAGE. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS OVER 63
KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 MILES
OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE EXTENDING 200
MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. 

MEENA HAS INTENSIED SLOWLY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS, SHOWING IMPROVED
SYMMETRY AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED BANDING. AN EYE IS EVIDENT IN SSMI DATA
BUT IS NOT YET APPARENT IN ENHANCED IR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITH SOME NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD AND IS ENHANCED IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR BY A JET
ENTRANCE REGION. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE YIELDS
DT=PT=5.0: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS. EXPECT SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
DUE TO LOW SYSTEM-RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WELL DEVELOPED
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT WITH AN ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.   

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 17.6S 162.0W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 20.1S 160.7W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 22.7S 158.7W MOV SSE AT 18 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 25.4S 155.6W MOV SSE AT 20 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
052030 UTC.

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