Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 11:18:46 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZFEB2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040751ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 040600Z0 TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GERARD) WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.7S3 57.5E7, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE
REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 040900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0
117.8E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S8 116.5E3, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CON-
VECTION OVER A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH
THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS WAS A MISS, A 032158Z9 PASS SHOWS EVI-
DENCE OF A TIGHT LLCC WITH ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW EQUATORWARD OF THE
REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE.
ADDITIONALLY, 850 MB VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.4S1 58.4E7,
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO CONSOLIDATE OVER A REGION OF INCREASED CYCLONIC FLOW. A 041403Z2
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF TC 14S. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVI-
RONMENT HAS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, 850 MB VORTICITY HAS NOT INCREASED IN STRENGTH
OR AERIAL COVERAGE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SUR-
FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES-
SURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOP-
MENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.