Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 23:33:36 -0600

TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZFEB2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250151ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.4N6
179.4E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.3N6 177.9E4, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL
ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR. A 241755Z4
QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW WITH A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDERNEATH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE.
ADDITIONALLY, 850 MB VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DESPITE THE CHANGE IN
DEEP CONVECTION ORIENTATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFI-
CANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 250000Z7, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P WAS LOCATED NEAR
8.4S2 178.2W8, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTHWEST OF WESTERN SAMOA, AND
HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 250300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8
179.6W3 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//

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