Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2005 06:18:35 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 221216

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 16/8/20042005
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8  (ERNEST)

2.A POSITION 2005/01/22 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 42.1E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.5/5.5 /S  0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 200   SE: 200   SO: 120   NO: 120
50 KT       NE: 090   SE: 070   SO: 060   NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/23 00 UTC: 23.9S/42.9E, MAX WIND=090KT.
24H: 2005/01/23 12 UTC: 25.9S/44.5E, MAX WIND=080KT.
36H: 2005/01/24 00 UTC: 27.8S/46.8E, MAX WIND=060KT.
48H: 2005/01/24 12 UTC: 30.8S/50.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/01/25 00 UTC: 33.6S/55.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5
ERNEST HAS KEEPEN ON ITS INTENSITY AND HAS TRACKED REGULARY SOUTHWARD
DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS.
IT IS A SMALL DISYMETRIC SYSTEM, WHITH STRONG WINDS MAINLY PRESENT IN
THE
 EASTERN PART (DUE TO THE MOVMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT
 WHITIH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST).
IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN NEXT NIGHT, AND TRACK SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD
BEFORE
 EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE TROUGH.=

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