Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2005 08:14:00 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 20.5S7 159.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 159.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 21.3S6 160.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 22.2S6 159.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 23.0S5 158.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.7S9 160.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSI-
TION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS AND A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND
NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DECREASING CONVECTION AND DEEP INFLOW OF COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
WARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
STEADILY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS INTO AN ENVIRON-
MENT OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL, DRY AIR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9.//

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