Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 02:53:24 -0600

WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z9 --- NEAR 16.0S7 42.1E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 42.1E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 18.4S3 41.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 20.3S5 41.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 22.2S6 41.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 24.0S6 42.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 41.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 ENHANCED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77
KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS BRINGING FAVOR-
ABLE VENTILATION FOR TC 12S. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CON-
TINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE WARM WATERS OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 AND
220900Z3.//

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