Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 21:36:54 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 100336
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 7N78W 5N90W 6N110W 7N125W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED WELL N OF AREA
DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOWN INTO NW PORTION OF
DISCUSSION AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
OVER EXTREME N PART OF AREA EXTENDING ALONG 133W N OF 26N.
AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N124W
TO 28N130W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 28N138W. INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST E OF FRONT FROM 28N126W-31N123W.
OTHER MAIN FEATURE IN THE AREA IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 9N120W WHICH HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NE OVER AREA BETWEEN 110W-120W TO OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
27N118W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A JET STREAM OF 100-110 KT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 24N122W
NE TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. JET
STREAM IS ADVECTING COPIOUS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 125W
OVER THE RIDGE AXIS AND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...MUCH OF NW
MEXICO...AND SW UNITED STATES. W OF 125W...MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DUE IN PART TO
CONFLUENT W-NW FLOW W AND S OF THE SHORTWAVE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EVIDENT S OF 15N E OF 120W ON E SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE.

SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING BEHIND STRONG
ZONAL FLOW OVER AREA N OF 20N. RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY E AND
REMAIN BETTER DEFINED S OF 20N.

E OF 110W...
MAIN FEATURE IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NICARAGUA SW OVER THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 3N94W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
W OF THE TROUGH IS NW-N WHICH IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO CONFLUENCE. THIS DRY AIR
COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM NICARAGUA WESTWARD. ALONG AND E OF TROUGH...DEEP MOISTURE
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG
ITCZ BETWEEN 81W-87W. STRONG LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS IS CAUSING PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS
NEAR CARIBBEAN COASTLINE OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING MOIST CONDITIONS OVER SECTIONS OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG NE WIND OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE
SPILLING OVER INTO EAST PACIFIC THROUGH GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND
FONSECA...AND HIGH PRES OVER MEXICO IS CAUSING GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.

$$
MOLLEDA

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