Subject: Indian-N: Rsmc / Tropical Cyclone Centre / La Reunion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2005 18:10:42 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 270008

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 2/11/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11

2.A POSITION 2005/01/27 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0S / 40.8E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 2.0/2.0 /W  0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/01/27 12 UTC: 22.6S/40.6E, MAX WIND=030KT.
24H: 2005/01/28 00 UTC: 22.7S/40.1E, MAX WIND=040KT.
36H: 2005/01/28 12 UTC: 22.4S/39.6E, MAX WIND=050KT.
48H: 2005/01/29 00 UTC: 21.8S/39.4E, MAX WIND=060KT.
60H: 2005/01/29 12 UTC: 20.9S/39.5E, MAX WIND=070KT.
72H: 2005/01/30 00 UTC: 20.0S/40.1E, MAX WIND=080KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION IS GOOD (ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, GOOD LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WITH ESTABLISHED MONSOON AND TRADE WINDS FLOWS, WARM
SST, 28
 TO 30AOC, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE), AND
THIS
 SYSTEM, WICH GENERATES IMPORTANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, COULD RAPIDLY
DEEPEN IN THIS
AREA.=

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