Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 14:28:56 -0600

WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 21.4S7 159.0W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 159.0W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 24.7S3 155.1W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 27.5S4 150.6W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 30.0S3 145.5W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 32.4S9 139.8W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 22.2S6 158.0W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATEL-
LITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMA-
TED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND AN EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL START TO MERGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

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