Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 15:26:51 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 172126
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2045 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 2N77W 7N90W 2N99W 10N121W
6N131W 7N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 7N87W AND 4N95W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN
114W AND 125W.

..DISCUSSION...
WEST OF 110W...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH MEAN AXIS ALONG 160W
IS NOW SHIFTING E ABOUT 10 DEG A DAY.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA
WITH AXIS ALONG LINE FROM 31N107W TO NEAR 10N126W.  WEST OF THE
TROUGH A RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING NORTH OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WITH BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS N OF 24N W OF 133W.  THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AXIS AND THIS AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE IS DRY IN THE UPPER LEVELS
INDICATING UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN THE AREA EXCEPT FOR NORTH OF 20N E OF 130W
WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMANATING
FROM CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ IS FLOWING NORTH JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS MOVING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

EAST OF 110W...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FOUND IN THE AREA AND IS THE RESULT OF
A LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.  MOST OF
THIS AREA IS VERY DRY ALOFT INDICATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE.  THE EXCEPTION IS ITCZ CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR
4.5N95W AND ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ NEAR
6N87.5W.  AT THE SURFACE CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST NEARLY 500 NM
FROM THE COAST.  STRONG SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ISTHMUS WITH STORM
CONDITION IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  NE SWELL FROM THIS AREA
OF WIND WILL SPREAD S OF EQUATOR BY 36 HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AS WELL.

$$
LL

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