Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 14:44:11 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072121ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SALLY) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- NEAR 14.2S7 99.6E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 99.6E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 14.9S4 98.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 15.7S3 96.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 16.6S3 94.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 17.7S5 91.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 99.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (SALLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPACT, WITH DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER, NOT YET ENTRAINING INTO IT. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST, THEN
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 09S IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
UNDER MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE CONTINUING PRESENCE
OF DRIER AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//

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