Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 08 Feb 2005 12:34:59 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 081833

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 1/14/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14

2.A POSITION 2005/02/08 AT 1800 UTC :
18.0S / 56.3E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/1.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/09 06 UTC: 18.4S/55.6E, MAX WIND=025KT .
24H: 2005/02/09 18 UTC: 19.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=025KT .
36H: 2005/02/10 06 UTC: 19.8S/53.9E, MAX WIND=025KT .
48H: 2005/02/10 18 UTC: 21.0S/52.6E, MAX WIND=025KT .

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5+
CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING AND BADLY ORGANIZED, BUT NOT FAR AWAY FROM
THE
LLCC, CLEARLY DEFINED ON QUIKSCAT AT 1403Z. WINDS HAVE BEEN
CALIBRATED
THANKS TO THESE QUIKSCAT DATA.
THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF
THE SUBTROIPICAL RIDGE.
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=

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