Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 08:19:59 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 111200    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 11/1417 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
168.5W AT 111200 UTC  MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON GOES10 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
25 TO 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR LLCC IN THE PAST 6-12 HOURS.
SYSTEM ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH SPIRAL BANDS REDEVELOPING IN
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. 09F IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A 250HPA OUTFLOW IN
A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LOW. OUTFLOW IS
GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ENHANCED BY CROSS-EQUATORIAL WIND
FLOW, AND IMPROVING ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY STEERING EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS 09F
INTERACTS WITH A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. DVORAK ASSESSMENT MET=2.0, PT=2.5,
FT CONSTRAINED BY RULES TO 2.0: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 13.5S 167.6W MOV ESE AT 04 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 13.6S 167.0W MOV ESE AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 13.8S 166.6W SLOW MOV WITH 45 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 14.0S 166.4W SLOW MOV WITH 50 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON 09F WILL BE ISSUED AT
112030 UTC. 

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.