Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 20:03:04 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 040000    
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 04/0159 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MEENA CENTRE [980HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 167.5W
AT 040000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEAST LATER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, WINDS
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST
THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF
CENTRE. 

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN EXPOSED LLCC JUST EAST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS THE CENTRE HAS SLIPPED
UNDER THE CDO, IMPLYING A DECREASE IN ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THE CDO IS
REJUVENATING AND CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AGAIN AFTER A MORNING
MINIMUM, SUGGESTING DIURNAL INFLUENCES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
ASSOCIATED CVA ABOUT MEENA IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EAST OF AN UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW IN A
REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY
STRONG CROSS EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW AND REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN GIVES DT=3.0, MET=3.5
AND PT=3.5. FINAL T BASED ON MET: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON SLOW EASTSOUTHEAST MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN
ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM TOMORROW.   

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 15.3S 165.9W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 16.7S 164.4W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 18.0S 163.3W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 19.9S 162.2W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MEENA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
040830 UTC.

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