Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 08:15:20 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 013
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z0 --- NEAR 13.3S7 170.1W9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 170.1W9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 15.3S9 168.4W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 17.4S2 166.9W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 19.5S5 165.1W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 22.1S5 163.1W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 27.5S4 160.6W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.8S2 169.7W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 161130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
AND 155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED
EYE. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH (MSWT). THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS
FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MSWT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TC 19P. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0, 170300Z1,
170900Z7 AND 171500Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARN-
INGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked] or see http://wxlist.5280tech.com. For more
information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage
at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.