Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 09 Jan 2005 14:41:58 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SALLY) WARNING NR 004

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   091800Z8 --- NEAR 15.5S1 98.6E3

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 98.6E3

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z7 --- 16.8S5 96.5E0

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z0 --- 16.9S6 93.6E8

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z8 --- 17.5S3 90.4E3

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 18 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z1 --- 18.1S0 86.7E1

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

    ---

REMARKS:

092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 98.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (SALLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
INTENSITY AND WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF DRIER
AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4.//

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