Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 14:15:59 -0600

WTPS32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNING NR 014
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- NEAR 14.4S9 169.2W8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 169.2W8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 16.5S2 167.9W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 18.4S3 166.4W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 20.7S9 164.8W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 22.9S3 163.3W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 27.1S0 160.9W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 168.9W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
90 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127, 140 AND
155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL
DEFINED EYE. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
EASTWARD UNDER STEERING INFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE EAST AND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TC 19P.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 46 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1, 170900Z7, 171500Z4 AND 172100Z1.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  18P (NANCY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//

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