Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 21:44:19 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 070344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 2N78W 2N106W 8N125W 6N131W 
6N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
115W AND 122W AND BETWEEN 128W AND 137W.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WEST OVER THE WEST PORTION HAS MEAN AXIS ALONG 
135W S OF 23N. AN UPPER CYCLONE CYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY SE 
THROUGH THE NW CORNER OF DISCUSSION AREA...WITH CIRCULATION 
CENTER AT 27N136W. OTHERWISE...A NEGATIVE TILT MID TO UPPER 
TROUGH HAS MEAN AXIS FROM 32N114W TO 13N107W. A BAND OF UPPER 
MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 25N133W 20N113W THEN NARROWS TO WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 
25N106W 32N976W.

MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N122W 16N109W 23N99W THEN NARROWS TO 
BEYOND 32N93W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG 32N132W 
19N107W.

TO THE N OF 15N...THE UPPER MOVES ELY ACROSS THE RIDGE THEN 
CONTINUES CYCLONICALLY E THEN NE ACROSS MEXICO. TO THE S OF 15N 
THE UPPER FLOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE RIDGE WITH FLOW SPLITTING 
NEAR 8N110W...WITH ONE BRANCH TURNING CYCLONICALLY NE MERGING 
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER FLOW. THE OTHER BRANCH TURNS SE INTO 
A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 5N102W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL 
EVIDENT FROM 5N122W TO 20N110W.    

OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
ESTIMATED OVER COLOMBIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 21N E OF 90W AND 
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. 

AT THE SURFACE...THE GALE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 
WEAKENED...BUT NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH 
THIS OROGRAPHIC GAP AND SIMILAR GAPS FURTHER TO THE S...
INCLUDING THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA AND PANAMA. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT...BECOMING MOSTLY 
DIURNAL SURGES...OCCASIONALLY TO 25 KT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

$$
NELSON

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