Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 00:43:17 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 010627
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 14/12/20042005
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2005/02/01 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3S / 64.5E 
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
 EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/01 18 UTC: 19.4S/63.4E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/02/02 06 UTC: 20.1S/61.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/02/02 18 UTC: 20.6S/59.6E, MAX WIND=020KT.
48H: 2005/02/03 06 UTC: 20.9S/57.4E, MAX WIND=020KT.
60H: 2005/02/03 18 UTC: 21.6S/55.2E, MAX WIND=020KT.
72H: 2005/02/04 06 UTC: 21.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=020KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS SYTEM LOOKS LIKE A MONSOON DEPRESSION, AND DVORAK ANALYSIS IS NOT
AVAILABLE.
WINDS ARE WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, MOSTLY EXPOSED, AND ARE STRONGER FAR
FROM THE CENTRE WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS, IN THE NORTH, IN THE MONSOON
FLOW NEAR 12S, AND EAST OF 65E.
WITH THE DRY AIR INTRUSION, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DO SO. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SYSTEM IS
CLOSELY MONITORED.
THE WHOLE SYSTEM (LLCC AND CONVECTIVE BANDS) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARDS RATHER SLOWLY, GIVING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON MASCARENES
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

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