Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 08 Jan 2005 05:08:43 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 081100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/081100Z-081800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072251ZJAN2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZJAN2005//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B
IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
NEAR 3.7N0 84.5N7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9N2 84.1N3, APPROXIMATELY
310 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF THE
UPPER LEVELS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
AND ADEQUATE OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. HOWEVER, MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS EXIST WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW
072300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
        (1) AT 080600Z4 TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (SALLY) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 13.9S3 100.2E3, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 080900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
        (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S1
100.5E6 IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA
2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING
STATUS.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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