Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Warning//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 02:27:13 -0600

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 15.7S3 113.6E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 113.6E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 16.0S7 110.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 16.5S2 107.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 17.1S9 104.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 17.5S3 101.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 112.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURR-
ENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN-
TENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z3 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND
170900Z7.//

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