Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Feb 2005 03:37:58 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 060937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 3N77W 9N106W 9N116W 6N124W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE 
AXIS FROM 115W TO 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS FROM 124W TO 131W. 

DISCUSSION...

W OF 128W...
UPPER RIDGE W OF AREA EXTENDS AXIS N TO S ALONG 140W. WEAK 
ANTICYCLONIC TO ALMOST NEUTRAL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH 
OF THIS AREA WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE 
TO DIGGING MIDDLE LATITUDE VORTEX NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
32N146W...MOVING ESE INTO THE RIDGE.

FROM 100W TO 128W...
DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS HELPING 
TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY THE PRE-EXISTING TROUGH ALONG 115W. 
CONVERGENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 128W IS RESULTING IN 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATING 100 KT WESTERLIES AS FAR S AS 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 
128W WITH SECONDARY 100 KT WIND MAXIMA FOUND FURTHER N WITHIN 
120 NM OF LINE 30N128W 27N119W AND IS TIED DIRECTLY WITH THE 
PACIFIC POLAR FRONT. 

E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...STRONG ADVECTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES 
PLAINS. A WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS 
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN REPORTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY 
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALMOST THE ENTIRE 
STATE OF OKLAHOMA.

E OF 100W...
STRONG MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
IN THE AREA OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO 
CREATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF 
THIS REGION. SIMILARLY...CONVECTION WITHIN OR NEAR THE ITCZ IN 
THIS PORTION OF THE E PACIFIC IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT.

AT THE SURFACE...TEHUANTEPEC GALE IS ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE 
WITH WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ORDER OF 25 KT BY SUNRISE TODAY AND 
LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON MORNING. IN CONTRAST...N TO NE 20 TO 25 
KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO... 
FONSECA...AND PANAMA WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. 
 
$$
HOLWEG

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