Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 03:47:43 -0600

ABIO10 PGTW 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN REISSUED/171000Z-171800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170152ZJAN2005//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170753ZJAN2005//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 170000Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 170300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 170600Z0, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SEE REF
B (WTXS31 PGTW 170300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S8
85.8E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4 84.5E7, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INC-
REASING CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CEN-
TER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8S6
60.8E4 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S3 57.7E9, APPROXIMATELY 890 NM
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PER-
SISTENT CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CEN-
TER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED PARA 2.B.(1) TO GOOD, AND
PARA 2.B.(2) TO FAIR. UPDATED INFORMATION IN PARA 1.A.(1) AND
PARA 2.A.(1) TO REFLECT FINAL WARNINGS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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