Subject: Indian-S: Warning For Metarea Vii

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2005 06:24:29 -0600

WTIO24 FMEE 291218
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/01/2005 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY  29/01/2005 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 (EX-FELAPI) 1000 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3S / 46.5E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT:          SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS , LOCALLY
REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2005/01/30 AT 00 UTC:
28.0S / 47.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
24H, VALID 2005/01/30 AT 12 UTC:
30.5S / 51.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY AT PRESENT ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS
.
THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH EX-FELAPI BECAME OVER SEA AGAIN DURING LAST
NIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXTENDING FAR IN THE SOUTH DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH HIGH SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES BUILDING SOUTHWESTERLY.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVACUATE  RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE DIRECTION
OF A TROUGH EXISTING BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE'S BUILDING.

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