Subject: FIJI: Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 Issued From Rsmc Nadi

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 14:17:13 -0600

WTPS11 NFFN 051800
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 05/2013 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [995hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 171.5E
AT 051800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION.  CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS.  WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED WITH THE DEVELOPMENMT OF A CDO AND BANDING
FEATURE IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. LLCC NOW APPEARS TO BE UNDER NORTHERN
EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN CDO. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION IN WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SST AROUND 30C.
CDO DIAMETER 1.2 DEGREES YIELDS A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/12HRS. TC KERRY IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A 250HPA
OUTFLOW AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE DUE TO APPROACHING SHARP
TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM. WEAK NORTHERLY ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DECREASE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE KERRY
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST, WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 14.6S 169.2E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 15.4S 166.2E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 15.8S 163.3E MOV W AT 15 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 16.0S 160.9E MOV W AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC KERRY WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 060200 UTC.

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