Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2005 03:34:33 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 100934
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 7N78W 5N95W 6N109W 8N122W 6N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION NEAR 7N79W 5N83W 5N88W AND 7N118W.

..DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED WELL N OF AREA
DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOWN INTO NW PORTION OF
DISCUSSION AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
OVER EXTREME N PART OF AREA EXTENDING ALONG 128W N OF 26N.
AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N124W
TO 28N130W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 28N138W. INTERACTION OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST E OF FRONT N OF 29N. ANOTHER MAIN
FEATURE IN THE AREA IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR
9N120W WHICH HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER AREA BETWEEN
110W-120W TO OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N118W. SW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED JET
STREAM OF 100-110 KT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 24N122W NE TO ACROSS
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE JET STREAM IS
ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 120W OVER THE RIDGE AXIS
AND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...MUCH OF NW MEXICO...AND SW UNITED
STATES. W OF 120W...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DUE IN PART TO CONFLUENT W-NW FLOW SW OF THE
SHORTWAVE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT S OF 15N E OF 120W ON
E SIDE OF MID/UPPER RIDGE.

SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NE AND MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING
BEHIND STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER AREA N OF 20N. RIDGE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY E AND REMAIN BETTER DEFINED S OF 20N.

E OF 110W...
MAIN FEATURE IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NICARAGUA SW OVER THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 3N94W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
W OF THE TROUGH IS NW-N WHICH IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO CONFLUENCE. THIS DRY AIR
COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM NICARAGUA WESTWARD. ALONG AND E OF TROUGH...DEEP MOISTURE
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG
ITCZ E OF 93W. STRONG LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IS
CAUSING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS NEAR CARIBBEAN COASTLINE OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING MOIST
CONDITIONS OVER SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG NE WIND OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE
SPILLING OVER INTO EAST PACIFIC THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND
FONSECA...AND HIGH PRES OVER MEXICO IS CAUSING GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING.

$$
RRG

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