Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 09:51:08 -0600

AXPZ20 KNHC 011550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

..ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...4N77W 7N85W 5N112W 7N125W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 101W 
TO 106W.
 
DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERED THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 
100W AND 120W. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXIMA WERE ROTATING 
THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE FIRST NEAR EL PASO TEXAS WAS MOVING 
ENE 15-20 KT. THE SECOND WAS DROPPING SWD 20 KT DOWN THE 
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A 
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 25N110W 
WSWWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 22N132W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N140W. THIS SHEAR AXIS WAS 
UNDERCUTTING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE N OF THE AREA. MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...DRY AIR...IS INDICATED WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. TO THE EAST OF THE SHEAR 
AXIS...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-130 KT 
EXTENDED FROM 15N128W ENEWD THROUGH 24N115W INTO NRN MEXICO 
ALONG 27N/28N. THE JET IS ADVECTING AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS E PAC BASIN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND 
TEXAS. TRANSVERSE BANDING WITHIN THE CLOUD FIELD SUGGESTED 
MODERATE OR GREATER CLEAR AIR TURBULENCE. SURFACE RIDGE WITH 
AXIS FROM 32N132W TO 18N108W.

E OF 100W...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERED THE ENTIRE 
AREA E OF 100W. SUBSIDENCE PREVENTED ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT 
ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA. 1108 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 
KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATED LOW CLOUDS BANKED IN THE PASSES LEADING TO BOTH THE 
GULF OF PANAMA AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SUGGESTING MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN BOTH AREAS. 

$$
COBB

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