Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean)

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 06:05:26 -0600

WTIO30 FMEE 041204

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 27/12/20042005
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12  (GERARD)

2.A POSITION 2005/02/04 AT 1200 UTC :
26.5S / 57.7E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 /S  0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT       NE: 120   SE: 160   SO: 180   NO: 100
50 KT       NE: 040   SE: 040   SO: 040   NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/02/05 00 UTC: 29.2S/58.0E, MAX WIND=055KT.
24H: 2005/02/05 12 UTC: 31.9S/59.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2005/02/06 00 UTC: 34.6S/61.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2005/02/06 12 UTC: 37.2S/65.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2005/02/07 00 UTC: 39.7S/69.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2005/02/07 12 UTC: 42.0S/76.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM REMAINS SMALL AND CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, BUT SHOULD
RAPIDLY
SUFFER FROM A UPPER LEVEL STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW .
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON  HEADING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS IN
THE
 DIRECTION OF THE TROUGH PRESENT TO THE SOUTH.=

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