Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2008 13:37:03 -0600

869 
FXPQ60 PGUM 311936
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
536 AM CHST FRI FEB 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE MOVED INTO THE MARIANAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BROUGHT SOME CLOUDS WITH IT. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MY FIRST THOUGHT WAS THAT THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
THE MARIANAS WOULD HAVE ENOUGH HOLES IN IT TO KEEP TODAY'S SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT THERE
ARE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. LOOKING AT A THE
SATELLITE LOOP FROM YESTERDAY INDICATED THAT THE DISTURBANCE HELD
ITS GROUND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL
WANING WAS APPARENT. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND PUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PROJECTING THE BACK END OF THE DISTURBANCE ON THE
SATELLITE IMAGES BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BY 6Z. THE TRADE
WIND DISTURBANCE SEEMS QUITE WEAK SO KEPT THE SHOWER COVERAGE AS
ISOLATED. 

THIS DISTURBANCE IS THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. LEFT EVERYTHING ELSE BASICALLY ALONE EXCEPT FOR A
TWEAKING OF THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FORECAST. PUT IN GUST TO ANY
EXTENDED PERIOD THAT HAD WINDS GREATER AND EQUAL TO 17 KNOTS.
USED NO GUST FOR LIGHTER WIND FIELDS. 

&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR A FEW TWEAKS HERE
AND THERE. PRIMARY NORTH SWELL AND SECONDARY EAST TRADE WIND
SWELL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST. 

&&

.MICRONESIA...

GFS/UKMET KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SOUTH OF ALL THE FORECAST 
LOCATIONS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MODELS HINT THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
MAY START COMING BACK AND BRING SHOWERS CLOSER TO PALAU...CHUUK... 
PONPEI AND KOSRAE...BUT TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO THAT YET. SO HAVE 
STAYED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED FROM PREV FORECAST. 

SURF HAS SUBSIDED FOR NOW...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF 
HAZARDOUS SURF THROUGH SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS SURF MAY BEGIN TO SHOW UP 
AGAIN AROUND SUNDAY AT KOSRAE...POHNPEI...CHUUK AND YAP.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/STANKO

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