Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2008 02:06:41 -0600

860 
FXPQ60 PGUM 160806
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
6 PM CHST SAT FEB 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SHEAR LINE LOCATED OVER AND NORTH OF ROTA. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING WHETHER THE SHEAR LINE WILL 
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH AND REACH GUAM. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW 
RAIN BANDS JUST EAST OF ROTA. SHEAR LINE HASNT BEEN MUCH OF A 
RAINMAKER ALTHO IT DID DROP AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN OVER ROTA SINCE 
MIDNIGHT. OVERALL THIS SHEAR LINE SEEMS TO HAVE STALLED AND MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NO FURTHER MOVEMENT UNTIL THE NEXT SHEAR LINE BY 
MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE WATCH TABULAR DATA INDICATES THE EXISTING NORTH SWELL TO 
GRADUALLY DECREASE ON SUNDAY EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE 
DROPPING OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. HOWEVER A RESURGENCE OF ANOTHER 
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PUSH THE SURF HEIGHTS BACK UP SOMETIME LATE 
MONDAY AND MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
HIGH SURF EVENT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY MORNING ON 
CHUUK AND POHNPEI. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY FOR KOSRAE AS EVENT ONSET 
MAY BE A DAY OR MORE AWAY ON KOSRAE. DO BELIEVE CURRENT EVENT WILL 
ENVELOP ALL OF EASTERN MICRONESIA. WAVE WATCH TABULAR GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS A SECOND SURGE WILL REINVIGORATE SURF HEIGHTS TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY.

TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS COALESCED AROUND A TROUGH NEAR MAJURO. 
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY TRACKS THIS SYSTEM WESTWARD...WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF KOSRAE. HAVE KEPT EXTENDED SCATTERED COVERAGE THERE BASED UPON 
FAVORED LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO PERSISTENT TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE WELL EAST OF MAJURO 
AROUND 175E. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL ENCROACH 
ON MAJURO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE 
ATTITUDE WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WAVE WATCH TABULAR DATA COMING IN TOWARD THE END OF THIS SHIFT HAS 
TRENDED UPWARD A BIT AND SUGGESTS A MARGINAL HIGH SURF EVENT IS 
POSSIBLE ON KOROR. SUGGEST NIGHT SHIFT GO AHEAD AND ADD KOROR AS AN 
AFFECTED LOCATION. LATEST ALTIMETRY SHOWS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE COMBINED 
SEAS NORTH OF KOROR. INTERESTINGLY...EVENT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS 
IMPRESSIVE ON YAP. WAVE WATCH TABULAR DATA ALSO HINT AT A MORE 
IMPRESSIVE EVENT ARRIVING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MADE VERY FEW 
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT OF NOTE WAS TO ADVECT 
SYSTEM NEAR MAJURO TO VICINITY OF CHUUK ON TUESDAY...THUS ADDING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS 
RELATIVELY DRY AS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED RIDGE 
STEERS/SUPPRESSES SYSTEMS TOWARD THE EQUATOR.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CHST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 
     GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MILLER/MCELROY

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