Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 01:51:30 -0600

871 
FXPQ60 PGUM 220751
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 PM CHST TUE JAN 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DRIER AIR NORTH OF SAIPAN.
RADAR DISPLAYS ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF GUAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. BASICALLY IN-TUNE WITH
THE ON-GOING TRADE-WIND WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. 

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WW3 DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PAST REPORTS.
THEREFORE...KEPT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER DAY. ANOTHER
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN WILL GENERATE LARGE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELLS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...GRIDS WERE
MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED EVENT BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. 
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SAW NO REASON TO QUESTION 
THE MODELS AND EARLIER FORECAST SO LEFT AS IS.

LATEST COMPUTER WAVES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SURF ALONG 
NORTH FACING SHORES ON POHNPEI WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL OF 9 FT 
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FOR POHNPEI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH HAS RETREATED TO NEAR THE EQUATOR. A 
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WAS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CHUUK STATE. 
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
ACROSS CHUUK. 

LATEST MODELS SHOW TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR PALAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

ALL THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF YAP AND AS A RESULT 
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THIS 
ISLAND.

LATEST COMPUTER WAVES GUIDANCE INDICATES SURF ALONG NORTH FACING 
SHORES ON CHUUK WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL OF 9 FT AND WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM CHST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

BAQUI/ZIOBRO

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