Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 13:45:23 -0600

846 
FXPQ60 PGUM 221945
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
545 AM CHST WED JAN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL DRY SEASON TRADE-WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS EXCEPTED UKMET ARE TRYING TO BRING A NEW SHEAR LINE
DOWN TO THE MARIANAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEMS TO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHEAR LINE ARE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN JAPAN...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ASIAN
CONTINENT. GREAT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY
OF BOTH SYSTEMS. THEREFORE WILL ONLY MENTION CLOUDINESS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
LARGE NORTH SWELLS AROUND 5 FEET WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 1 FOOT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH FACING REEFS TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS EVENING. A NEW SURGE OF LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS IS
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER
DANGEROUS SURF EVENT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
MODELS KEEP DRY NORTHEASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE REGION ALL THE WAY 
TO THE EQUATOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE ABSENCE OF LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE...ONLY ISOLATED TRADE SHOWERS EXPECTED.

LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE SHOWS SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES ON 
POHNPEI SHOULD REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL OF 9 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN AT CHUUK...AND SHOULD AFFECT PALAU TONIGHT 
AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AT YAP AND 
CHUUK. 

LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE SHOWS SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES ON 
CHUUK SHOULD REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL OF 9 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. 
MEANWHILE...TRADE-GENERATED SWELL SHOULD BRING HIGH SURF AT 12 FEET 
OR HIGHER TO EASTERN SHORES OF YAP AND PALAU BY EARLY THURSDAY 
MORNING. HENCE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WITH THIS 
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

CHAN/MIDDLEBROOKE

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