Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 02 Feb 2008 13:09:29 -0600

075 
FXPQ60 PGUM 021909
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
509 AM CHST SUN FEB 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WSR-88D SHOWS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MARIANAS FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LEFT THE FORECAST VIRTUALLY UNTOUCHED. LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LACK OF PRECIP COUPLED WITH FRESH TRADES...LOW
HUMIDITY...AND UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ADD TO THE
WILDFIRE THREAT. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING
TODAY. EXPECT LITTLE RESPITE FROM THE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH ONLY NOMINAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SYSTEM
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARIANAS TOMORROW WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT AT THIS POINT SCATTERED
PRECIP LOOKS TOO FAR FETCHED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MICRONESIA...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS. MAIN FORECAST 
STORY REMAINS HIGH SURF EVENT CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS IN EASTERN 
MICRONESIA. DID NOT REFRESH CURRENT CFWPQ...BUT WILL SUGGEST THE DAY 
SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS. WAVE WATCH APPEARS TO HAVE
TRENDED A BIT DOWNWARD WITH HIGH SURF EVENT ON MAJURO. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SURF WILL THREATEN THE HIGH SURF THRESHOLD FOR MAJURO ON
NORTH AND EAST EXPOSURES THROUGH THURSDAY...COURTESY OF A SECOND
SURGE ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. WAVE WATCH TABULAR DATA CALL FOR HIGH
SURF ALONG NORTH AND EAST EXPOSURES ON KOSRAE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CHUUK APPROACHES THE HIGH SURF THRESHOLD FOR EASTERN
EXPOSURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FALLS ABOUT A
FOOT SHORT. NEXT CHANCE FOR HIGH SURF ON PALAU AND YAP WILL BE FOR
EASTERN EXPOSURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEATHER FORECAST
ASSUMES LONGEVITY AND WESTWARD MOTION OF TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY CENTERED BETWEEN KOSRAE AND MAJURO AND ALSO SOUTH AND
WEST OF CHUUK. FORECAST IN WESTERN MICRONESIA ASSUMES SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST POINTS. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP SYSTEM SOUTH OF CHUUK INTO A CIRCULATION BY
WED...WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE HERE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...RED FLAG WARNING VALID FROM 6AM TO 6PM CHST TODAY GUZ001.
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH VALID FROM 6PM CHST TODAY UNTIL 6PM CHST
MONDAY GUZ001. 
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

LEE/MCELROY

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