Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2008 17:37:38 -0600

901 
WWPS21 NFFN 102300    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/2337 UTC 2008 UTC.

REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC
NADI Jan 10/2335 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.0S 172.2E AT
102100UTC AND SLOW MOVING EAST. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. HOWEVER,
IT SEEMS THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CENTRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL
TROUGH AND IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHICH ONE WILL BE MORE DOMINANT. SST
AROUND 29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS. CONVECTION IS ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT, BUT STILL LACKS ORGANISATION. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ZONE. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH
A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH SUPPORTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF 08F. THE GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS] PREDICT 08F TO INTENSIFY
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE IT EAST THEN GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.     

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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