Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2008 01:13:43 -0600

432 
FXPQ60 PGUM 010713
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
513 PM CHST FRI FEB 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE OVER THE MARIANAS HAS PUSHED WEST
OF THE ISLANDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO INDICATES A RATHER
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND TODAY'S TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE
ALLOWING FOR A DECENT WEEKEND. ON MONDAY...GFS AND MM5 PROG
ANOTHER WEAK TRADE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARIANAS...SO
HAVE INTRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO THE GRIDS. LEFT PRECIP ISOLATED
FOR NOW AS THESE FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PEG BEYOND
24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INTACT.

&&

.MICRONESIA...

DRY PATTERN SHOULD HOLD FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...THOUGH THE GFS TRIES 
TO BRING TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS BACK INTO MICRONESIA BY 
SUNDAY. BUT THE UKMET KEEPS EVERYTHING WELL SOUTH OF ALL FORECAST 
LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND THE NOGAPS ALSO REMAINS 
FURTHER SOUTH THAN GFS. I HAVE NOTED OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS THAT 
THE GFS TENDS TO OVERDO TRADE CONVERGENCE AND PUSH IT TOO QUICKLY 
NORTH. SO...WILL STAY WITH DRY FOR NOW UNTIL SOMETHING CONCRETE 
DEVELOPS. 

WW3 SHOWS TRADE SWELL INCREASING AGAIN AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO...AND 
HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCATIONS FURTHER 
WEST SHOULD STAY OUT OF HIGH SURF FOR THE TIME BEING...AS NO 
SIGNIFICANT NORTH SWELL IS FORECAST AND EAST SWELL SHOULD REMAIN TOO 
SMALL FOR 12-FOOT SURF ON EASTERN EXPOSURES.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

LEE/MIDDLEBROOKE

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