Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 08 Jan 2008 13:53:13 -0600

596 
FXPQ60 PGUM 081953
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
553 AM CHST WED JAN 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS A SHEAR
LINE WEAKENS IN OUR REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE GFS40 SEEMED TO INITIALIZE REALLY WELL WITH
REGARD TO WINDS. SINCE THE CHANGES INTRODUCED ALL SEEMED TO BE
SLIGHT DECREASES IN WIND SPEED...LOADED IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA
FOR WINDS. BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE...JUST MADE TODAY PARTLY
SUNNY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHER THAN THAT...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS PACKAGE WAS REALLY IN FINE SHAPE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WIND WAVES DECREASING SLIGHTLY AND NORTH SWELL SLOWLY
ABATING...WE NO LONGER MEET THE CRITERIA FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
THIS WAS LARGELY AS EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...SO
WILL WORD IT AS AN EXPIRATION. CONDITIONS REMAIN NOT FAR BELOW THE
10 FOOT CRITERION...SO MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SEAS FOR A WHILE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND SURGE REMAINS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THIS WEEKS WEATHER 
DRIVEN-MECHANISM. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE EXPECTED TRADE-WIND 
SURGE OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES 
WITH SHOWERS INCREASING TO SCATTERED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GLOBAL WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COMBINED SEAS 
BUILDING NEAR 10 TO 11 FT FOR POHNPEI AND MAJURO TOWARD THE WEEKEND. 
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DATA FLUCTUATION FOR THE REGION 
TO AVOID SURPRISES.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS PROGS BY 
KEEPING THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 
48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING 
ACROSS YAP THIS MORNING...WITH MORE CLOUDS FLARING-UP FROM THE EAST 
TO SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. RAOB FROM THE 12Z RUN INDICATED A LITTLE 
OVER 2 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR BOTH YAP AND KOROR. INCREASING 
SHOWERS FROM THE EAST WILL VISIT KOROR BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOSE 
MONITORING OF EXPECTED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL AID 
LOCAL RESPECTIVE OFFICES TO ISSUE NECESSARY ADVISORIES. TRADE-WIND 
SURGE WILL MAKE IT TO CHUUK...SO HAVE KEPT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY 
CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/BAQUI

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