Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2008 01:16:28 -0600

441 
FXPQ60 PGUM 040716
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
516 PM CHST FRI JAN 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH SHEAR LINE
STAYING WELL TO OUR NORTH. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT
ON RADAR AND IN SAT IMAGERY. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST GFS/UKMET ARE NOW TRYING TO BRING THE SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY
BETWEEN PAGAN AND ANATAHAN DOWN NEAR GUAM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SAT LOOP HAS SHOWN NO MOTION SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY...AND MODELS SHOW IT WEAKENING EVEN IF IT DOES COME
DOWN. SO UNTIL MOTION BECOMES EVIDENT I WILL BE SKEPTICAL AND STAY
THE COURSE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW...THOUGH THE SITUATION
CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
HAVE CANX THE HI SURF 2 HR EARLY...AS NW SWELL IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING. BUT SURF ON NORTH FACING REEFS WILL BE RUNNING NEAR 
8 FEET ALL WEEKEND WITH MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...SO THIS BEARS
WATCHING AS WELL.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE...AS EVIDENT ON LATEST VISIBLE 
IMAGERY...CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR POHNPEI NORTHEASTWARD TO THE 
DATELINE. HEAVY SHOWERS BROUGHT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AND 
VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE OVER THE MARSHALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY. GFS AND 
UKMET WEAKEN TRADE CONVERGENCE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND 24 HOURS...SO 
HAVE KEPT GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING WITH PERIODS OF MOSTLY 
CLOUDY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LATEST CWFPQ1.

LATEST WW3 MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT ADVISORY LEVEL SURF HEIGHTS 
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR MAJURO AND...DUE TO LOWER 
CRITERIA...INTO MONDAY FOR KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL MEANDER WELL SOUTH OF KOROR OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL NOT BE A MAJOR WEATHER FACTOR FOR KOROR 
OR YAP. HAVE KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING THROUGH PERIOD. CHUUK WILL 
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF MAIN AXIS OF TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO 
AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EFFECTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING AT 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR YAP AND PALAU THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/LEE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.