Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2008 13:57:10 -0600

743 
FXPQ60 PGUM 101957
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
557 AM CHST FRI JAN 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRESH SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE
MARIANAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPUTER MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI WILL BE ENTERING
THE MARIANAS ON SUNDAY. AMONG THE MODELS...BOTH GFS AND UKMET ARE
EXTENDING THE TROUGH ONTO THE SURFACE WHILE MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS SCENARIO WILL
HAPPEN OR NOT. FOR THE TIME BEING...INTRODUCED MORE CLOUDS OVER
THE MARIANAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING TRADES WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD REACHING 7 TO 9 FEET
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EAST SWELL IS ALSO GRADUALLY
RISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COMBINING WITH A NEW LONG PERIOD NORTH
SWELL ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURF ALONG NORTHEAST AND EAST
FACING SHORES MIGHT APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAJURO 
AND KOSRAE THROUGH SATURDAY. NEW AREAS OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE 
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MAJURO STARTING SUNDAY...THEN 
BUILD INTO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL 
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AS FRESH TRADES CONTINUE TO BLOW 
ACROSS THE WEST PACIFIC.

WIND WAVES COMBINED WITH SWELLS KEEP SEAS NEAR 10 FEET THROUGH THE 
FORECAST. GLOBAL WAVE WATCH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE COMBINED 
SEAS THAT WILL BREACH HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS FOR ALL EASTERN LOCATIONS 
THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ALL 
EASTERN LOCATIONS WITH A 24 HOUR LEAD TIME.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PALAU THIS MORNING. 
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT THE SITUATION STILL 
BEARS WATCHING FOR THOSE LOCATED WEST OF OUR AREA. IT MAY EVENTUALLY 
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE 
CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL GENERATE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AT YAP AND THROUGH SATURDAY AT 
PALAU.

FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CHUUK STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. 
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THIS STATE 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

COMBINED SEAS STAY IN THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS CHUUK STATE. SEAS WILL RISE 
ABOVE 10 FEET BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR 
CHUUK WITH A 24 HOUR LEAD TIME.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CHAN/STANKO

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