Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2008 03:44:52 -0600

481 
WWPS21 NFFN 200900    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 20/0944 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.3S 166.4W AT
200600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.

THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND IS EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ALOFT. CONVECTION HAS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR AT THIS STAGE. THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ALOFT BUT
250HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE VICINITY. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS [GFS/EC/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND INTENSIFY IT
SLIGHTLY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.    

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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