Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 06 Jan 2008 13:38:55 -0600

448 
FXPQ60 PGUM 061938
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
538 AM CHST MON JAN 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SAT AND RADAR BOTH SHOW A SHEAR LINE SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MARIANAS...ATTENDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
MOVING INTO TINIAN AND SAIPAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS SHOWS THE SHEAR LINE REACHING GUAM LATE THIS MORNING...
WHILE THE UKMET HAS IT NEAR GUAM THIS EVENING. I TEND TOWARD THE
LATER ESTIMATE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE TENDENCY FOR
SHEAR LINES TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME AS THE LEADING EDGE
ERODES DURING THE DAY. SO HAVE SPLIT THE ZONES...BRINGING SCT
SHOWERS TO TINIAN/SAIPAN TODAY...AND TO GUAM/ROTA TONIGHT. PC
SKIES AND ISOL SHWRS SHOULD RETURN TUE NITE AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
ALSO HAVE SPLIT ZONES FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS BEHIND
SHEAR LINE IN TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS. WITH SEAS RUNNING 10 FEET
UP THERE THRU TONIGHT...HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVY. BUT NO HI
SURF IS EXPECTED...SINCE NORTH SWELL HAS DIMINISHED AND HIGHEST
SURF IS ON EASTERN EXPOSURES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL 
PREVAIL ACROSS MAJURO...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. INCREASING CLOUDINESS 
AND SHOWERS ARE KEPT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TRADE-WIND 
DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES MAJURO AROUND 
TUESDAY MORNING. LOCAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT 
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHANGED THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ALL ISLANDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND KEPT 
MOST OF THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KOROR AND
YAP TODAY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAY SPREAD NEAR
KOROR DURING THE NEXT 8 TO 12 HOURS. YAP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE. HOWEVER...INCREASING
CLOUDINESS FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER YAP IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. STRONG WINDS ALOFT SOUTH OF CHUUK WILL FORCE HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA TODAY. BUT...LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY INFLUENCED
BY A TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE NEAR AND EAST OF CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING 
     TO 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/BAQUI

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