Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2008 03:39:18 -0600

153 
WWPS21 NFFN 100900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/0938 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [992HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.1 SOUTH 175.7 WEST AT 100600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR MTSAT
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH ABOUT 06 KNOTS
BUT EXPECTED TO TURN AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER
A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADIJan 10/0925 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 169.0E AT
100600UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 29-30
DEGREE CELCIUS. 
QUIKSCAT PASS CLEARLY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 14.8S 173E.
HOWEVER, IT SEEMS THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CENTRES EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOONAL TROUGH AND IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHICH ONE WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND IS ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT, BUT STILL LACKS ORGANISATION. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW SHEAR ZONE. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOROUS
MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH SUPPORTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 08F. THE
GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS] PREDICT 08F TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND MOVE IT EAST THEN GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.     

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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