Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 03:18:59 -0600

521 
WWPS21 NFFN 230900    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 23/0918 UTC 2008 UTC.

DEPRESSION 011F [992HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.20S 167.0W AT 230900UTC
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
QUIKSCAT PASS. SST AROUND 26 DEGREE CELCIUS.

LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTRE. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
HIGH SHEAR WITH LLCC EXPOSED. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [GFS/UK/GASP] HAVE
LITTLE INTESIFICATION OF 011F AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS
OVER COLDER WATERS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.    

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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