Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2008 14:12:28 -0600

905 
FXPQ60 PGUM 292012
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
612 AM CHST WED JAN 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ON 
RADAR AND SATELLITE THIS MORNING. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST AS NEW MODEL DATA IS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST. SAW NO REASON TO CHANGE...ALTHOUGH DID FRESHEN
WINDS HERE AND THERE AS WELL AS GUST GRIDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE FORECAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE HERE AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT FOR
SEAS...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE UP TODAY AS WELL. ALSO KEPT HIGH
SURF ADVISORY OUT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO FIGURE IT IS
BEST TO GET UPDATED SURF OBS DURING DAYLIGHT BEFORE CANCELING OF
THE ADVISORY. NORTH SWELL DOMINATES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN MICRONESIA AND 
GRADUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OUT. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING 
SLIGHTLY FOR MAJURO AS A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. 
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS DISTURBANCE...SO LEFT JUST 
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN.

COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTH 
FACING SHORES THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. 
AFTERWARD SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER CHUUK THIS MORNING BUT FAIR 
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FROM THE EAST BY THIS EVENING. A TRADE 
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY WELL EAST MIGHT AFFECT CHUUK OVER THE WEEKEND 
BUT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL. LATEST MODEL RUN INDICATES BOTH PALAU AND 
YAP WILL ENJOY DRY TRADE REGIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR WILL CAUSE THE TRADE 
DISTURBANCE TO SINK TOWARD THE EQUATOR...SPARING THESE ISLANDS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM CHST THURSDAY 
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/STANKO

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