Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 08 Feb 2008 01:18:51 -0600

232 
FXPQ60 PGUM 080718
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
518 PM CHST FRI FEB 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE ONCE AGAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE MARIANAS. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
NEAR THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TALK ABOUT. MODEL REL HUMIDITY FORCASTS SHOW
DRYING ABOVE 900 MB NEXT WEEK...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO 10 PCT
STARTING MONDAY...AND PUT SLT CHC OF SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST.
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEK NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING IF WINDS TURN OUT STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. 

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
TUE OR WED A NEW BATCH OF NORTH SWELL COULD BRING HIGH SURF TO NORTH-
FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN 
MICRONESIA. CONVERGENT TRADE-WINDS HAVE INTENSIFIED THE TRADE WIND 
TROUGH...PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG 5N THROUGH THE SOUTHERN 
MARSHALL ISLANDS...AND KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES. INCREASING 
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT KOSRAE TONIGHT AND SPREAD 
INTO POHNPEI ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAJURO AND ISLANDS TO THE EAST 
AND NORTH WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS DURING THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. HAZARDOUS SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 
ADVISORY-LEVEL FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. 
LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SURF HEIGHTS GENERATED BY 
TRADE-WIND SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT POHNPEI 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE LA NINA 
COULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION IN POHNPEI STATE 
FROM 12 TO 16 FEBRUARY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF KOROR APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND IS 
RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WFO GUAM AOR. 
HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL DOES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR 
WILL INCREASE AND BUILD OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS BY SATURDAY. THE 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED WITH CLEARING BY SUNDAY. THE 
TRADE-WIND TROUGH SOUTH OF CHUUK SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY 
NIGHT OR SUNDAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAGOON ISLANDS. MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE 
MOISTURE AT CHUUK DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT HOLD THE DEEP MOISTURE 
BELOW 25K FT. MOISTURE WILL NEED TO DEEPEN FOR THUNDERSTORMS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LAST INTO MONDAY. GFS KEEPS YAP IN A 
STRONGLY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE ISLAND. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL 
TIDES AND THE LA NINA COULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL 
INUNDATION IN CHUUK AND YAP STATES AND ON THE LOW ISLANDS OF PALAU 
FROM 12 TO 16 FEBRUARY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/GUARD

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