Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 09 Feb 2008 01:41:17 -0600

866 
FXPQ60 PGUM 090741
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
541 PM CHST SAT FEB 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUST IN THE
UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE TODAY. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD
WERE SEEN ACROSS THE MARIANAS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER WINDS
PERSISTING UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING THAN DECREASING THEREAFTER. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. GFS HINTS
AT A SHEAR LINE MAKING IT INTO THE MARIANAS NEXT SUNDAY...TOO
EARLY TO ADD THIS TO FORECAST. 

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AND THE FIRE DANGER RATING WILL REMAIN EXTREME.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. THIS WOULD KEEP THE CHANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING
AS UNLIKELY UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE HERE AS WELL. SURF REMAINS CONSTANT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
WHEN LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS ENTER THE MARIANAS. A HIGH SURF EVENT
LOOKS LIKELY AS THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH UP TO 6 FEET. THIS
WOULD EQUAL AT LEAST A 9 TO 11 FOOT SURF ON NORTHERN EXPOSURES.
NEW MODEL DATA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HELP REFINE THESE
FIGURES. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
STRONG TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED 
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 4-5N FROM SOUTHEAST 
OF MAJURO WESTWARD ALMOST TO CHUUK. THE GFS BRINGS IT NORTHWARD 
SLIGHTLY THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ENOUGH TO BRING SHOWERS TO POHNPEI 
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER THAT IT SAGS BACK SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS 
FROM EAST TO WEST. KOSRAE IS ALREADY UNDER THE BAND...BUT SHOULD 
BREAK OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO BRING IT BACK OVER KOSRAE 
AGAIN LATER ON...BUT WANT TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS 
BEFORE GOING WITH THAT. MAJURO SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE ACTION 
THROUGHOUT. 

SURF SHOULD FALL BELOW HAZ LIMIT OF 12 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE 
KOSRAE SHOULD FINALLY FALL BELOW ITS HAZ LIMIT OF 8 FEET MONDAY 
NIGHT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
NEAR-EQ TROF SOUTH OF PALAU SHOULD BRING SCT SHOWERS TO PALAU 
TONIGHT...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD GRAVITATE SOUTH OF THERE ON SUNDAY. 
THEN A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF GUAM SHOULD 
BRING SHOWERS TO YAP SUNDAY...AND TO PALAU MON NITE AND TUE. CHUUK 
SHOULD BE MAINLY FAIRLY DRY...BUT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND 
CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY EAST OF THERE SHOULD MOVE THRU CHUUK SUN NITE 
AND MONDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/MIDDLEBROOKE

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