Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2008 01:24:03 -0600

592 
FXPQ60 PGUM 180723
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
523 PM CHST MON FEB 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
VISIBLE SAT LOOP SHOWS THAT THE SHEAR-LINE SEGMENT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE MARIANAS HAS RE-ACTIVATED...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOW
MOVING INTO THE ISLANDS AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FROM THE LOOKS OF THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GFS/UKMET...
IT APPEARS THE SHEAR LINE WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS IN THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HINTS THAT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO TUE NITE OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN...BUT UKMET OFFERS
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THAT. SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CLOUDS THROUGH TUE
NITE THEN BACK TO P/C AND ISOL THE REST OF THE WEEK. 

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
HIGH SURF SHOULD PEAK AT 8-10 FT WED...THEN SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS
THE NORTH SWELL DECLINES. THE WW3 GUIDANCE CLIPS THE TINIAN/SAIPAN
WATERS WITH A HIGHER EAST SWELL TUESDAY...AND THIS ALONG WITH
THE NORTH SWELL MAY PUSH SEAS UP TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVEL OF 
10 FEET TUESDAY AND/OR TUE NITE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION OVER POHNPEI... 
AND TRADE-WIND GENERATED SHOWERY CLOUDS WEST OF MAJURO ARE HEADING 
TOWARDS KOSRAE TONIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH SOUTH OF POHNPEI IS 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER POHNPEI TONIGHT. PRECIP 
WATER FOR THE 18/00Z POHNPEI SOUNDING WAS OVER 2 INCHES. MODELS HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON POPS OVER POHNPEI AND KOSRAE DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 36 HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EAST OF MAJURO IS EXPECTED TO
REACH MAJURO BY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THROUGH 
FRIDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
BOTH KOROR AND YAP WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN DURING 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST WILL REACH CHUUK IN 
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CHUUK BY 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL DATA EXTENDED NNW SWELLS ON CHUUK THROUGH 
FRIDAY. LARGE NNE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PALAU AND YAP BY 
TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/BAQUI

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