Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2008 16:46:11 -0600

611 
WWPS21 NFFN 192100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 19/2245 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1004HPA] NEAR 16S 167W SLOW MOVING.POSITION
POOR BASED MTSAT VISH/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL
VARIATION. HOWEVER,ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR AT THIS STAGE WITH
MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  CIMSS INDICATES HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR ABOUT THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS MORE LOW-MID LEVEL WITH UPPER DIFLUENT [250HPA] TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [AVN/GFS/EC/US] HAVE PICKED UP
THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS LOW.    

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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