Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2008 01:50:03 -0600

874 
FXPQ60 PGUM 050749
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
549 PM CHST TUE FEB 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS. VIS
SAT ALSO SHOWS A GAS/ASH PLUME STREAMING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
ANATAHAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS
ALL KEEP THE MARIANAS UNDER DRY TRADE WINDS WITH VERY LITTLE RAIN
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE EAST TO EAST-
NORTHEAST...SO THE PLUME FROM ANATAHAN WILL NOT BE AFFECTING THE
MARIANAS. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE KBDI ABOVE 600 IN SPITE OF YESTERDAY'S RAIN...AND WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO BE RE-ESTABLISHED...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FELL BELOW 50 PCT TODAY AND SHOULD DO SO EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...ANY INCREASE IN WINDS
MAY REQUIRE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS A ITCZ-LIKE FEATURE OF TRADE-WIND 
CONVERGENCE IN A LINE ALONG 5N WITH SOME CONVERGENCE SOUTH TO THE EQUATOR.
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS...I EXPECT THAT AT SOME POINT THIS 
SHOWER-ONLY AREA WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME PERIODS OF DIURNAL 
CONVECTION. AMOUNT OF RAIN EACH ISLAND WILL GET DURING THIS FORECAST 
PERIOD THEN DEPENDS A BIT ON HOW MUCH THIS LINE MEANDERS...AND 
FLARES. MODELS...PRIMARILY ECMWF...NOGAPS AND GFS TODAY ARE MOSTLY 
IN AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING DURING THIS 
FORECAST PERIOD. THEY DO SUGGEST THAT KOSRAE IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO GET 
THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWERS...BUT WITH POHNPEI AND MAJURO LYING JUST TO THE 
NORTH. BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK MODELS FINALLY BEGIN TO HIT 
MAJURO AND THEN ALSO POHNPEI BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SEEMS TO FOLLOW 
WITH CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...SO BASICALLY FOLLOWED WITH 
ONLY SOME LIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. 

WW3 WAVE WATCH FORECAST MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH SURF-CRITERIA 
BEING MET FOR MAJURO AND KOSRAE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. I 
EXTENDED THE PREVIOUS COMMENTS FROM THE EARLIER SHIFTS SUGGESTING 
THAT WEDNESDAY WOULD BE THE PEAK DAY TO THE LATER END OF THE WEEK 
TIME FRAME.  IN FACT THE NOGAPS VERSIONS OF THE WW3 SHOWS A NEW
SURGE COMING INTO THE MAJURO AREA BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AS THE LIKELY END OF THE HIGH SURF PERIOD. 
FOR POHNPEI...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE CURRENT HIGH SURF
EPISODE ENDING TONIGHT AND THEN STARTING BACK UP BY THURSDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE ISLANDS. TODAY...
CHUUK HAD SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. 
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PERIOD OF ALMOST CONTINUOUS RAIN WILL 
END SOMETIME TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS PLENTY 
OF HEAVY SHOWERS...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...STRETCHING BACK ALMOST TO 
POHNPEI. SO POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT CHUUK MIGHT CONTINUE TO RECEIVE 
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...I JUST KEPT IN MOSTLY 
CLOUDY. THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED BY THE MODELS TO BEGIN 
AFFECTING KOROR AND YAP BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE INTENSITY DOES NOT 
APPEAR AS STRONG OR AS SUSTAINED. SO WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR KOROR 
AND YAP BY THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER.

WW3 SHOWS ALL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY SWELL DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH THE 
MODERATE TRADES NOT MEETING THE HIGHER EAST FACING REEF CRITERIA FOR 
12 FOOT SURF.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/EDSON

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.