Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 13:42:03 -0600

181 
FXPQ60 PGUM 231941
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
541 AM CHST THU JAN 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING SHEAR LINE ARE 
LINGERING ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF JAPAN WILL KEEP DRY NORTHEASTERLIES
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CHINA...A COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
IWO JIMA EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH OF OKINAWA NEAR 23N128E
THEN THROUGH SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND BEYOND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ALONG 20N TOUCHING THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANAS. AS THIS SYSTEM
ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND ON SATURDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF CHINA WILL HELP TO FORM A SHEAR LINE AT THE
TAIL OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ALL MODELS EXCEPTING UKMET ARE BRINGING THIS SHEAR LINE SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND...
HAD DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDINESS BY A DAY TO SUNDAY. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS SHEAR LINE BUT IT IS
JUST TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
CHOPPY SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS RESIDUAL NORTH SWELL AND WIND WAVES
PERSIST. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NORTH SWELL GENERATED BY A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ENTER THE MARIANAS ON
SATURDAY EVENING. HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG NORTHERN EXPOSURES IS
LIKELY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH HAS SUNK DOWN VERY NEAR THE EQUATOR... 
AND IS FORECAST TO DISAPPEAR ALTOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND 
BE REPLACED BY DRY NORTHEASTERLY TRADES. THUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS PALAU...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS ALL OF MICRONESIA. 

HIGH SURF SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING AT CHUUK AND POHNPEI AS THE 
NORTH SWELL DIMINISHES...BUT WAVE MODEL INDICATES THAT HAZARDOUS 
SURF SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SAT ON EASTERN SHORES OF PALAU AND YAP.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CHAN/MIDDLEBROOKE

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