Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 07 Feb 2008 13:47:35 -0600

347 
FXPQ60 PGUM 071947
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
547 AM CHST FRI FEB 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAGGED REMAINS OF AN OLD SHEAR LINE 
TRICKLING THROUGH THE MARIANAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS JUST ENOUGH
SHOWER COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED TODAY. RIDGE HAS REBUILT NORTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES
AND ANATAHAN...SO THE VOG PLUME FROM THE VOLCANO IS TRAILING OFF
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. LEFT FORECAST GRIDS INTACT
WHILE REFRESHING WIND AND DEW POINT GRIDS THROUGH DAY 5. USED 35
PERCENT GUST FACTOR AND 5 KT GUST DIFFERENTIAL FOR ALL THE WIND
GRIDS. FORECASTER LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL.
ONLY ITEM ON THE HORIZON...GFS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
SHEAR LINE SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH NEXT FRIDAY. WILL PASS ON
ANY RESPECTIVE GRID EDITS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
CONVERGENT TRADE-WINDS ACROSS MAJURO...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ARE
FAVORABLY IN-SYNC WITH A FEW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS THAT MAY ENHANCE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAJURO WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAZARDOUS SURF
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS FOR KOSRAE
AND MAJURO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL DATA
SUGGEST SURF HEIGHTS GENERATED BY TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WAVES
ALONG EAST-FACING EXPOSURES OF POHNPEI WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
GFS KEEPS A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH OF KOROR MOVING WESTWARD IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KOROR AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WEST OF CHUUK IS
EXPECTED TO REACH YAP BY SUNDAY. OVERALL...IT WILL BE WET AND
BREEZY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEAR TERM...WITH
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN STORE FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING
REEFS. SWELL GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NEXT HIGH SURF EVENT FOR
NORTH FACING REEFS STILL SCHEDULED TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/BAQUI

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