Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 27 Jan 2008 03:44:00 -0600

266 
WWPS21 NFFN 270900    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 27/0943 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [1001 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 178.9W AT
270600UTC. POSITION IS POOR ACCORDING TO IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS WITH QUIKSCAT PASS MISSING THE AREA. A LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STILL PERSISTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 500 HPA
WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. 12F IS LOCATED IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELCIUS. CONVECTION AROUND 12F IS STILL MAINTAINED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS WITH A WELL DEFINED INFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK. A WRAP OF
0.3 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVES 10F A DT OF 1.5. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
MODERATE. 
PAST 12 HOUR ANALYSIS HAS SEEN 10F MOVE SOUTHWEST AND GLOBAL MODELS
[UK, ECMWF, US] CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH A
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

NO OTHER DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.            

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