Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 03:34:13 -0600

269 
WWPS21 NFFN 220900    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 22/0933 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F [996HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 166.2W AT
220900UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS.

LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTRE BUT A
CENTRE IS NOT CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH A MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CIRCULATION ALOFT. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT FPR
THE LAST 12 HOURS AND IS ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR BUT HIGH SHEAR MTO THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW
[250HPA]. A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW SUPPORTS ITS NORTHERN FLANK WHILE
GOOD SOUTHEASTERLIES SUPPORT THE SOUTH PART. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
[GFS/UK/GASP] DEEPEN 11F SLIGHTLY AND THEN MOVE IT SOUTHWARD.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.    

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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