Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2008 02:13:15 -0600

077 
FXPQ60 PGUM 100813
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
6 PM CHST THU JAN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS 
PREVAIL OVER THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACTIVITY FOR 
THE MARIANAS THROUGH THE WEEKS END.  AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE 
SOMETIME SUNDAY IS A POSSIBILITY BUT STILL WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS 
CRITERIA. 

&&

.MARINE...
KEPT THE SAME STORY REGARDING SWELLS. BASICALLY WILL CONTINUE TO 
HAVE EAST SWELL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH SWELL COMING DOWN 
A LITTLE BUT BUILDING BACK TO 2 FT BY WEEKS END.

&&
.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS KOSRAE 
TONIGHT. VARIOUS OTHER AREAS OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL GENERATE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO ON DIFFERENT 
DAYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRADE-WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN 
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND 
WAVES COMBINED WITH SWELLS KEEP SEAS HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST.
GLOBAL WAVE WATCH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE COMBINED SEAS THAT 
WILL BREACH HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS FOR ALL EASTERN LOCATIONS THIS 
WEEKEND. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND ADVISORIES 
WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF PALAU THIS EVENING. THE 
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD. IT MAY 
EVENTUALLY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA. THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL 
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PALAU 
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL 
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CHUUK STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. 
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THIS STATE 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

COMBINED SEAS STAY IN THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS CHUUK STATE. SEAS WILL RISE 
ABOVE 10 FEET BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE GLOBAL WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATES THAT COMBINED SEAS MAY  BREACH 
HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS FOR CHUUK THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS 
SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED IF 
NECESSARY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MILLER/ZIOBRO

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