Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 27 Jan 2008 17:47:08 -0600

856 
WWPS21 NFFN 272100    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 27/2346 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [992 HPA] CENTRE ANALYSED NEAR 16.8S 179.3E
AT 272100UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED RADAR, HRES MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS.

LLCC LOCATED OVER LAND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTLINE OF VANUIA LEVU.
ORGANISATION IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD
TO EAST BUT STILL DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. INTERACTION WITH VANUA LEVU
LANDMASS SOMEWHAT HINDERING INTENSIFICATION. DEPRESSION MOVING
SOUTHWEST UNDER DEEP-LAYER MEAN NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. 12F MOVING
INTO MINIMAL SHEAR REGION. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE
TO HIGH. 

NO OTHER DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.            

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