Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 13:55:30 -0600

419 
FXPQ60 PGUM 141955
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
555 AM CHST FRI FEB 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...THE TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE LINGERS SW OF GUAM...BUT IS 
MOVING AWAY. A SHEAR LINE IS NEAR GUAM...WITH MOST OF ITS CLOUDINESS 
NEAR AND WEST OF THE ISLANDS. LIKEWISE...RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS 
WEST OF THE THE ISLANDS BUT VERY LITTLE TO THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHEAR LINE WILL 
KEEP SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE AREA ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. MADE 
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF SKY COVER.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...LATEST WW3 OUTPUT BRINGS 10-FOOT SEAS INTO THE WESTERN 
HALF OF THE MARIANAS WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO HAVE HOISTED A 
SMALL CRAFT ADVY. OTHERWISE...HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS ON TRACK. LOOKS 
LIKE THERE MAY BE A GAP IN THE HIGH SURF MONDAY...THEN MORE NORTH 
SWELL ARRIVES TUESDAY OR SO TO PUMP SURF BACK TO HAZ LEVELS.

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE LATEST GFS RUNS SEEM TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
MICRONESIA. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF POHNPEI IS
GENERATING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERWARD THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE
THRU SUNDAY. KOSRAE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE FAIR
WEATHER DAY BEFORE TRADE CONVERGENCE INDUCED SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
MODERATE TRADE SURGE IS PUSHING IN WET WEATHER OVER MAJURO THIS
MORNING. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PULL WEST OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AFFECT POHNPEI ON MONDAY.

STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A SHEAR LINE HAVE BEEN DEPICTED 
BY QUIKSCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE BLOWING ACROSS JAPAN INTO 20N. 
WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE IS PREDICTING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THESE WINDS TO BE ARRIVING AT CHUUK AND POHNPEI BY SUNDAY 
EVENING...AND KOSRAE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL 
BE LIKELY FOR THESE STATES.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONDITIONS FOR PALAU AND YAP ARE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST 
EXCEPT FOR BRINGING IN A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS OVER PALAU SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THE CIRCULATION STILL LINGERING WEST OF
PALAU...THE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING YAP WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE CONVERGENCE OVER PALAU SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH OF CHUUK WILL KEEP PROVIDING
CLOUDS INTO THIS EVENING. MODERATE DRY TRADE FROM BEHIND WILL
PROMISE PLEASANT CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
INCLEMENT WEATHER FOR CHUUK EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS STILL OVER MAJURO AND IS WAY TOO EARLY TO
JUMP ON THE WAGON AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CHST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 
     GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM CHST 
SATURDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.