Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 31 Dec 2007 13:51:28 -0600

023 
FXPQ60 PGUM 311951
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 AM CHST TUE JAN 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH PREVAILED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST AS NEW MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THE OLD FORECAST. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND STAY THAT WAY FOR A FEW DAYS. FAIR DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHEAR LINE MOVES DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GFS KEEPS IT NORTH OF SAIPAN AND ECMWF ALLOWS IT TO SAG
OVER SAIPAN. WENT WITH THE GFS FOR NOW. 

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS STILL HAVE NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING WEDNESDAY AND KEPT THIS
IN THE FORECAST. 
&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE LARGE AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EAST OF 150E HAS 
DISSIPATED. THIS SEEMS TO FIT THE COLLECTIVE THREE PRIMARY MODELS 
THAT I USED...GFS40...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS. THUS HAVE TONED DOWN ALL 
THREE SITES TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE 
JET JUST NORTH POHNPEI HAD ME KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR 
POHNPEI AS I JUST DID NOT THINK IT WAS...THAT...DRY. INCREASED CLOUD 
COVER AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE MODELS FOR THE 
WEEKEND...HOWEVER WITH NO DISTINCTIVE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURE...THESE 
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE HARD TO TIME. THE COMBINED SEAS FORECAST ARE A 
BIT EASIER AND SHOW THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH SURF ADVISORIES BEING 
REQUIRED BY WEDNESDAY FOR MAJURO AND BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY 
FOR KOSRAE. SURF ON THE EASTERN FACING REEFS FOR MAJURO COULD 
POSSIBLY REACH UP TO 15 FEET BY THURSDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
BIGGEST CHANGE HERE WAS FOR THE WEATHER FOR PALAU AS SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND MODELS HAVE PUSHED MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY 
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HAVE ALSO WEAKENED THE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE 
EQUATORIAL TROUGH. FORECASTS FOR YAP AND CHUUK REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 
PREVIOUS RUN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE CHUUK MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE 
EFFECTS OF THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE DISCUSSED ABOVE BY SATURDAY. 
AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE 
NORTH FACING COASTS OF KOROR AND YAP MAY BE REQUIRED BY THURSDAY OR 
FRIDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/EDSON

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