Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2008 16:24:12 -0600

527 
WWPS21 NFFN 202100    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 20/2223 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11P [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S 168.2W AT
202100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE
CELCIUS.

THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND IS EMBEDDED IN A
SURFACE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
ALOFT. CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANISED BUT ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW
[250HPA]. A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW SUPPORTS ITS NORTHERN FLANK WHILE
GOOD SOUTHEASTERLIES SUPPORT THE SOUTH. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
[GFS/EC/UK/GASP] DEEPEN 11F AND THEN MOVE IT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.    

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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