Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 06 Feb 2008 14:04:42 -0600

366 
FXPQ60 PGUM 062004
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
604 AM CHST THU FEB 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR THIS
MORNING. A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THE MARIANAS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST AS NEW MODEL RUNS AGREE
WITH CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS SHOW WINDS DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY REACHING A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY REACHING A PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND. 

MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE. GFS DOES HINT AT A SHEAR LINE COMING DOWN INTO
THE LOWER MARIANAS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE ABOUT THAT AS MODELS ARE POOR WITH SHEAR LINE PREDICTION. 

BACK TO THE DRY WEATHER. WITH LITTLE RAIN LIKELY...UNLESS WE GET
A STRAY SHOWER...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME DURING
THE NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NOT SATISFY CRITERIA. 

&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH THE SAME NORTH SWELL AND EASTERLY TRADE-
WIND SWELL REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK EXPECTED. NONE OF THE MODELS TAKE US INTO HIGH SURF CRITERIA. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED FORECAST. FORECAST FOR MAJURO 
TODAY IS LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH MAJURO AT BEST ON THE NORTHERN EDGE 
OF THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE. HIGH SURF EVENT IS STILL PROCEEDING 
ON KOSRAE AND MAJURO. PEAK HEIGHTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY HAVE 
TRENDED UPWARD ON KOSRAE. RETURN OF HIGH SURF ON POHNPEI HAS TRENDED 
LATER...WITH WAVE WATCH SUGGESTING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EVEN SATURDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
NO HIGH SURF EVENTS FORESEEN. HAVE TWEAKED WINDS ON KOROR TODAY DUE 
TO PROXIMITY OF MONSOON TROUGH/CIRCULATION TO THE EAST. SHORT TERM 
WEATHER ON YAP LOOKS DRIER...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING ONLY 
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A CANOPY OF CIRRUS. TRADE DISTURBANCE STILL 
SHOULD ARRIVE OVER CHUUK TONIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST 
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK WILL AFFECT WEATHER ON KOROR AND YAP 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST CALLING 
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW DUE TI THE 
SMALL SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/MCELROY

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