Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2008 01:44:41 -0600

023 
FXPQ60 PGUM 210744
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
544 PM CHST MON JAN 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...RADAR DISPLAYS ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST OF GUAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TWEAKED A FEW GRIDS TO COMPLEMENT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODIFIED TEMPERATURES OVER
LAND AND WATER AS IPAN BUOY REPORTS A 1 DEGREE INCREASE IN SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER THE PAST DAY. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
IPAN BUOY REPORTED TRADE-WIND GENERATED SWELLS OF 6 TO 7 FEET AT
10 SECONDS THIS AFTERNOON. WW3 DATA KEPT THE NORTH SWELLS OVER
THE MARIANAS FOR ANOTHER DAY. I DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE WEEK...NORTH
SWELLS OF 4 TO 5 FEET MAY BUILD TO NEAR 6 FEET BY SATURDAY. WILL
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. THIS AREA WILL MOVE WEST 
AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER POHNPEI 
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND ACROSS KOSRAE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. 

MAJURO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY TRADE-WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FAIR WEATHER PATTERN 
WILL TAKE OVER POHNPEI TUESDAY NIGHT AND KOSRAE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST COMPUTER WAVES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SURF ALONG 
NORTH FACING SHORES ON POHNPEI WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL OF 9 FT 
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR POHNPEI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH RUNS THROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR...YAP AND 
CHUUK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
TROUGH WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE THREE MAJOR ISLANDS OF PALAU...YAP 
AND CHUUK. SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER 
PALAU AND CHUUK FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. YAP IS FAR 
ENOUGH NORTH NOT TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE COMING OFF THE ASIAN CONTINENT WILL STRENGTHEN TRADE WINDS 
ACROSS PALAU AND YAP AFTER MID-WEEK.

LATEST COMPUTER WAVES GUIDANCE INDICATES SURF ALONG NORTH FACING 
SHORES ON CHUUK WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL OF 9 FT AND WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FOR CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM CHST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

BAQUI/ZIOBRO

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