Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2008 17:42:23 -0600

432 
WWPS21 NFFN 112100    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 11/2342 UTC 2008 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [996HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8S
168.7W AT 112100 UTC.POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. LLCC
EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. THE SYSTEM
IS WEAKENING FURTHER. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.4S 179.2E AT
111800UTC AND IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT EIR/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION.
IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHERE THE ACTUAL LOW-LEVEL CENTRE
MIGHT BE AT THIS STAGE. SST AROUND 29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS. 08F SEEMS TO
HAVE WEAKENED AND CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ALONG THE TROUGH BUT THERE IS
NO DEFINITE ORGANISTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. CIMMS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN A
DIFLUENT REGION. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A VIGOROUS MONSOONAL
FLOW TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH STILL
SUPPORTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS] PREDICT 08F
DEEPEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE.     

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.