Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2008 13:53:35 -0600

391 
FXPQ60 PGUM 161953
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
553 AM CHST THU JAN 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR OUTAGE CONTINUES...NOTHING REMARKABLE ON LATEST IR
IMAGERY...SAVE FOR ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION TYPICAL OF THE
DRY SEASON TRADES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...GFS 
AND ECMWF BRING SHEAR LINE INTO ZONES. GFS IS ESPECIALLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE SYSTEM...PUSHING IT TO NEAR 10N BY TUESDAY EVENING.
MODELS HISTORICALLY UNDER RESOLVE THESE SHALLOW FEATURES...SO THE
STRONG PUSH INDICATED BY GFS THIS TIME AROUND FORGED THE SCATTERED
PRECIP INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DID NOT SPLIT THE ZONES THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...BUT MAY
NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN LATER UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE....
HAVE CANCELED THE SCA IN RESPONSE TO SLACKENING WINDS. LOOKS
LIKE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE REISSUED SUNDAY EVENING AS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH SHEAR LINE ENTERING FORECAST REGION. IN ADDITION...REINFORCING
NORTHERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE FETCH BEHIND SHEAR LINE MAY
GENERATE HIGH SURF CRITERIA ON NORTHERN EXPOSURES BY MONDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE ZONE OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH KEEPING 
POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO RELATIVELY DRY TODAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A NEW AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL BRING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS TO KOSRAE AND MAJURO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH SURF SITUATION AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO...WHERE 
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT FOR 
MAJURO AND FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS FOR KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE 
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO PALAU TODAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS YAP FOR 
PART OF THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. 

THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CHUUK THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ALSO KEEP ANY AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
GENERATED BY TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE FAR AWAY FROM CHUUK. WITH THIS 
IN MIND...KEPT SHOWERS ISOLATED THROUGH MONDAY. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.

&&

$$

LEE/ZIOBRO

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