Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2008 13:58:58 -0600

787 
FXPQ60 PGUM 161958
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
558 AM CHST SUN FEB 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO BE DRAPED ACROSS ROTA. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW CHANGES HERE AND THERE. MODELS DO SHOW
THAT THE SHEAR LINE OVER THE AREA WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY.
GFS AND UKMET HINT AT A BRIEF RESURGENCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. 
ALSO KEPT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER THAT.

&&
.MARINE...
NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK. WW3 INDICATES
THAT SURF OVER GUAM SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW HAZARDOUS. THE SAME
MODEL INDICATES THAT IT WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SAIPAN. REMEMBERING
THAT THE POINT FOR GUAM IN THIS MODEL IS FURTHER SOUTH...DECIDED
NOT TO SPLIT HAIRS AND KEPT GUAM IN HAZARDOUS SURF. SWELLS MAY
DECREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT INCREASE AGAIN BY MID-WEEK. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAZARDOUS SURF IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
HIGH SURF EVENT SHOULD BE BEGINNING ON NORTHERN SHORES OF CHUUK AND 
POHNPEI AS THIS IS WRITTEN. KOSRAE WILL PROBABLY BE ADDED LATER 
TODAY...AND PERHAPS MAJURO LATER. WAVE WATCH TABULAR GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS A SECOND SURGE WILL REINVIGORATE SURF HEIGHTS TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY...MEANING HIGH SURF MAY LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

TROUGH HAS MOVED PAST MAJURO...WHICH WILL HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARING 
WEATHER TODAY. CONVERGENCE WILL PROBABLY PERSIST LONGER NEAR KOSRAE 
DUE TO ITS MORE SOUTHERN LATITUDE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL 
GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST ANOTHER WAVE EAST OF MAJURO AROUND 175E. THIS 
WILL PROBABLY ENCROACH ON MAJURO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SINCE IT HAS 
NOW LASTED A SECOND RUN...WENT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT KEPT ISOLATED 
SHOWERS STILL FOR NOW.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WAVE WATCH TABULAR DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MARGINAL HIGH SURF 
EVENT TO BE POSSIBLE ON KOROR. DAY SHIFT MAY WISH TO ADD KOROR WHEN 
IT IS NECESSARY TO UPDATE THE SURF ADVISORY ANYWAY. DID NOT DO 
ANYTHING FOR NOW AS THE KOROR ADVISORY PROBABLY WILL NOT ARRIVE 
UNTIL TONIGHT OR MONDAY AND THE ADVISORY DID NOT EXPIRE UNTIL THIS 
AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY...EVENT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE 
ON YAP. WAVE WATCH TABULAR DATA ALSO HINT AT A MORE IMPRESSIVE EVENT 
ARRIVING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS PACKAGE SEEMED TO BE IN 
GOOD SHAPE WEATHERWISE...SO MADE VERY FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS. 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AS NORTHEAST TO 
SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED RIDGE STEERS SYSTEMS TOWARD THE EQUATOR.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/STANKO

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