Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2008 03:18:04 -0600

993 
WWPS21 NFFN 150900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 15/0917 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.7S 169.5E AT
150600UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 28-29
DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION HAS SLIGTLY INCREASED WITIHN THE LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO
DIURNAL VARIATION HOWEVER ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CIMMS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM STILL LIES IN A REGION OF UPPER DILUENCE IN A LOW
LEVEL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT PICKED UP THE SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.       

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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