Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2008 14:07:26 -0600

298 
FXPQ60 PGUM 172007
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
607 AM CHST MON FEB 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEAR LINE
JUST SOUTH OF GUAM MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS. RATHER LITTLE RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
ELEVATED AND MAY GET GUSTY AT TIMES BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS KEEP THE SHEAR LINE IN OUR AREA THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THEN
IT GRADUALLY RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH. WE THEN SHOULD FALL INTO
A DRIER TRADE-WIND PATTERN. WE SHOULD STAY IN THIS PATTERN FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WHICH IS TO SAY AT LEAST THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH SWELLS ARE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF...AND IN
FACT SHOULD BUILD A FOOT TUESDAY. THERE IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
SAIPAN AND TINIAN WATERS. DEFINITELY ONE FOR MARINERS TO KEEP AN
EYE ON...AS WELL AS SURF WATCHERS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT POHNPEI AND KOSRAE UNTIL 
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN INTENSIFYING TROUGH MOVES THRU THE REGION. 
CONVERGENCE TRAILING BEHIND THIS TROUGH IS ABOVE TO PUSH WEST OF 
MAJURO THIS MORNING. THEREFORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 
THIS AFTERNOON. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE DATELINE WILL 
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MAJURO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND 
LAST THRU THURSDAY. THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TO AFFECT KOSRAE 
AND POHNPEI BY THURSDAY.

DETAILS IN HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STILL 
HOLD PRETTY GOOD. NO UPDATE IS NEEDED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
BOTH KOROR AND YAP WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN INTO 
MID-WEEK AS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH STAYS 
ALONG 5N. UPPER-LEVEL FLOWS WILL STREAM MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...QUIET 
WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END FOR CHUUK BY TUESDAY EVENING AS A 
POWERFUL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE EAST. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS WEST OF 
CHUUK ON THURSDAY...IT MIGHT PLAY A ROLE ON THE WEATHER OVER YAP AND 
PALAU.

LARGE NNE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PALAU AND YAP STARTING 
TUESDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BY 300 PM CHST 
THIS AFTERNOON FOR A 6 TO 12 HOUR LEAD TIME.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.