Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 04 Feb 2008 02:06:42 -0600

343 
FXPQ60 PGUM 040806
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
606 PM CHST MON FEB 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
TODAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE...PRONGED TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS TO PASS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL DISTURBANCE NEAR
152E...BUT LEFT THIS OUT OF FORECAST AS IT LOOKS SMALL AND MAY NOT
MAKE IT. AFTER THE SHOWERS END TONIGHT MODELS KEEP US DRY...SO
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST TO THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHO KNOWS THOUGH IF WE WILL GET ANOTHER TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE OR TWO LIKE THE ONE THAT PASSED ACROSS THE ISLANDS
TODAY. THESE THINGS ARE TOO SMALL AND EPHEMERAL FOR THE MODELS TO
PICK UP ON.

WINDS STAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND DECREASE THEREAFTER. THIS DECREASE
IS VERY TEMPORARY AS MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING UP WINDS AGAIN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS STILL HAS A VIGOROUS TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. AT THE PRESENT TIME THIS
MODELS KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. 

&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE HERE AS THE NORTH SWELL AND EAST TRADE WIND SWELL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WW3 SHOWS TWO NORTHERLY
SWELLS LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT SINCE THESE WERE OF SIMILAR SIZE
AND PERIOD I AVERAGED THE DIRECTION AND SWELL.  

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE POTENTIAL IS STILL EXTREME WITH THE KDBI WELL ABOVE 600. WE
DID HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT WITH RECENT RAINSHOWERS THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE ISLAND TOMORROWS RED FLAG WILL HAVE TO BE EVALUATED LATER ON.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE DROPPED EARLY IF THE RAINS APPEAR TO
HAVE DECREASED THE FIRE DANGER. IN ANY EVENT THIS RESPITE WILL ONLY
BE TEMPORARY AS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
AIDED BY LIMITED DIFFLUENT FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVEL...TRADE 
CONVERGENCE INDUCED SHOWERS MIGHT ACCOMPANY BY A THUNDER OR TWO OVER 
POHNPEI TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS OVER KOSRAE WILL BEGIN TO EASE 
A LITTLE TUESDAY MORNING AS BACK EDGE OF THE TRADE DISTURBANCE 
PUSHES WESTWARD. HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF TRADE CONVERGENCE IS MOVING 
INTO SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE MORE 
RAIN FOR BOTH ISLANDS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE SOME SHOWERS 
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAJURO WILL ESCAPE THE BRUNT OF THIS 
SYSTEM BY BEING NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE. 

MODEL STILL POINTING AT HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND 
MAJURO THRU WEDNESDAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON SURF HEIGHTS BASED 
ON THE LATEST OUTPUT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN FIRING UP CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF 
KOROR THE WHOLE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT. THINGS WILL 
IMPROVE A BIT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TRADE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS A 
LITTLE. THE TRADE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF CHUUK WILL BE APPROACHING 
JUST SOUTH OF KOROR BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SILL 
SUPPORTING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS 
LIKELY. IT IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT IF YAP GOING TO BE DIRECTLY 
AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE NOT LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION 
YET BUT WILL LEAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS IS MARCHING TOWARD CHUUK THIS EVENING. 
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO SHIFT TOWARD CHUUK BY LATE 
TONIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO QUIET DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS 
SOUTHWARD. GFS ARE BLOWING UP A TRADE DISTURBANCE OVER CHUUK ON 
THURSDAY EVENING. SEEMS UNREALISTIC FOR THIS TO HAPPEN EVEN WITH 
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY.

LATEST WW3 NO LONGER SUPPORTS HAZARDOUS SURF HEIGHTS FOR 
CHUUK...PALAU AND YAP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL KEEP 
MONITORING DATA FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

&&

.
.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

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