Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2008 16:01:59 -0600

873 
WWPS21 NFFN 172100    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 17/2201 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 22S 162E AT
171800UTC. LOCATION IS GOOD DUE TO QUIKSCAT PASS, MTSAT VIS IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOUD ORGANISATION IS WELL DEFINED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO SHEAR
OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF 13F.  
THERE IS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION RIGHT UP TO 300 HPA WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS AROUND
26 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UK AND US] ARE AGREEING ON A SLOW
SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT INITIALLY, INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WITH A SLIGHT DEEPENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CUCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS LOW.  

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.     

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