Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2008 13:51:51 -0600

156 
FXPQ60 PGUM 151951
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 AM CHST SAT FEB 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS A FINE LINE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN ROTA AND TINIAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY RUNNING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LINE MAY
DROP A SMALL AMOUNT OF RAIN ON ROTA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE SHEAR LINE HAVING SPENT MUCH OF ITS ENERGY AT THIS
TIME...WEATHER SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER TODAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THE GFS40 RE-INVIGORATES IT THIS WEEK...BRINGING DOWN ANOTHER
SURGE OF 25 TO 30 KNOT TRADE WINDS BEHIND IT. ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD
AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN SO THIS DOES SEEM
REASONABLE. MAIN IMPACT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF SAIPAN HOWEVER.

&&

.MARINE...
SLOWLY DECREASING SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. BUOY 121 HAS DROPPED A FOOT OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. JUST ENOUGH SWELL ENERGY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS TO KEEP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALIVE. AN INCREASE IN WIND
WAVES COULD RESURRECT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT DETERMINATION FOR
FUTURE TEAMS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS CREATING 
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND KOSRAE TODAY. 
AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY...A FEW COLD 
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN VISIBLE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM 
THE FORECAST. BEING NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE POHNPEI WILL ENJOY 
FAIR WEATHER UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS CONDITIONS FINALLY IMPROVE 
OVER MAJURO AND KOSRAE SUNDAY EVENING...INCLEMENT WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER POHNPEI AND LAST THRU MONDAY. DRY TRADE 
PATTERN WILL RETURN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUESDAY.

LATEST ALTIMETRY HAS DETECTED LARGE LONG PERIOD NNW SWELLS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A SHEAR LINE TO BE NEAR 15N. WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE 
ARRIVAL TIME OF THESE SWELLS ON CHUUK AND POHNPEI BY EARLY SUNDAY 
MORNING...AND KOSRAE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TO GIVE ISLAND RESIDENTS 6 
TO 12 HOURS LEAD TIME...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR 
THESE ISLANDS BY 300 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. A SURFACE 
TROUGH PASSING THRU WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS OVER YAP TODAY AND 
PALAU FOR TONIGHT. EARLIER CONCERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER YAP IS 
NO LONGER A THREAT SINCE MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF YAP HAS 
DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT. CHUUK WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NNE SWELLS GENERATED BY THE SAME SHEAR LINE 
MENTIONED ABOVE MIGHT BRING HIGH SURF ADVISORY EVENT FOR PALAU AND 
YAP STARTING MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CHST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 
     GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

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