Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2008 17:45:01 -0600

270 
WWPS21 NFFN 152300    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 15/2344 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD 10F [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.4S 163.0E AT
152100UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND
28 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITIHN THE LAST 12 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL
VARIATION WITH ORGANISATION BECOMING WELL ORGANISED. CIRCULATION IS
MORE LOW-MID LEVEL WITH MODERATE SHEAR ALOFT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF 10F. HOWEVER, MINIMAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY CIMMS.
10F LIES TO THE WEST OF AND UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS[AVN/UKGC/US] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH A SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR TD 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
12 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.       

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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