Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 09 Jan 2008 17:10:28 -0600

636 
WWPS21 NFFN 092300
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 09/2309 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [996HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.2S 175.6W AT
092100UTC AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OSERVATION. SST
AROUND 28-29 DEGREE CELCIUS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST
6-12 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANISED WITH 0.35 
BANDING ON THE LOG SPIRAL. 07F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS] PREDICT SOME MORE
INTENSIFICATION AND GRADUALLY MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK.

POTENTIAL FOR THE 07F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 169.0E AT
092100UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OSERVATION. SST AROUND
29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS,
BUT THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS ORGANISATION. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, BUT 08F IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITHIN 18 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS]
PREDICT 08F TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
EASTWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR THE 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.     

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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