Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 00:00:08 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZJAN2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA)
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 124.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO INTERACTION
WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING
INTENSIFICATION DESPITE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR THE
END OF THE ADVISORY VALID TIME, AT WHICH POINT CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARM
OPEN WATER THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.2S 172.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS DISSIPATED AND
IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUBJECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

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