Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2008 13:42:35 -0600

748 
FXPQ60 PGUM 131942
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
542 AM CHST MON JAN 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED NORTH OF SAIPAN THIS
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATING WELL NORTHWEST OF
SAIPAN COASTAL ZONE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON QUIKSCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY...ANOTHER TRADE-WIND SURGE IS
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS CURRENT HIGH SURF EVENT/ROBUST
TRADE-WIND SURGE IN PROGRESS. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE STORY AND
STILL LOOKS LIKE MAJURO WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THE HIGH SURF
WARNING THRESHOLD. LOOKS LIKE EVENT WILL PEAK FROM EAST TO WEST
DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MODULATE THE
CONVECTION WITHIN THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE. ONE TROUGH WAS
MOVING WESTWARD FROM POHNPEI...WHILE A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
WAS APPROACHING THE DATE LINE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SURF EVENT PEAKS ON CHUUK THURSDAY. SURFACE 
TROUGHING/RELATED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT CHUUK THROUGH TUESDAY 
NIGHT. WENT WITH THUNDER FIRST PERIOD AT CHUUK BASED UPON LIGHTNING 
DETECTION AND COLD CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING -90C. NOSE OF DEEP 
CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE WINGING WESTWARD FROM CHUUK A BIT FASTER THAN 
EARLIER THOUGHT...SO ADVANCED THE ARRIVAL TIMES ON YAP AND PALAU 
AROUND 12 HOURS. LEFT INHERITED SCATTERED COVERAGE TOWARD THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR YAP AND PALAU IN PLACE BASED UPON MODEL 
CONSENSUS SUPPORT...ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY ARGUES AGAINST SUCH A MOVE.

&&

.MARINE...
BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WAVES MIGHT WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DAY SHIFT FORECASTER
CAN MAKE THE FINAL CALL.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CHAN/MCELROY

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