Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 07 Feb 2008 13:49:45 -0600

645 
FXPQ60 PGUM 071949
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
550 AM CHST FRI FEB 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAGGED REMAINS OF AN OLD SHEAR LINE 
TRICKLING THROUGH THE MARIANAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS JUST ENOUGH 
SHOWER COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL STILL BE 
SCATTERED TODAY. RIDGE HAS REBUILT NORTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES AND 
ANATAHAN...SO THE VOG PLUME FROM THE VOLCANO IS TRAILING OFF TO THE 
WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. LEFT FORECAST GRIDS INTACT 
WHILE REFRESHING WIND AND DEW POINT GRIDS THROUGH DAY 5. USED 35 
PERCENT GUST FACTOR AND 5 KT GUST DIFFERENTIAL FOR ALL THE WIND 
GRIDS. FORECASTER LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL. ONLY 
ITEM ON THE HORIZON...GFS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SHEAR LINE 
SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH NEXT FRIDAY. WILL PASS ON ANY RESPECTIVE 
GRID EDITS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEAR TERM...WITH 
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN STORE FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS. 
SWELL GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NEXT HIGH SURF EVENT FOR NORTH FACING 
REEFS STILL SCHEDULED TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/BAQUI

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