Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 18:15:46 -0600

100 
WWPS21 NFFN 130000
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/0015 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.1S 179.0W AT
122100UTC AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
A DEFINITE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS DIFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS STAGE BUT
QUIKSCAT SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES
IN THE VICINITY ARE LOW SO CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLS ARE MINIMAL AT THIS
STAGE. THERE IS NOW ORGANISED CONVECTION WITH MAJOR ACTIVITY LOCATED
TO THE NORTH. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 08F REMAINS UNDER A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LIES
JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER 250HPA RIDGE. WITH AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE
TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE LOST 08F
EXCEPT FOR THE EC MODEL WHICH DOES NOT FAVOUR ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.8S 174.5W AT
122100UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
LLCC IS EVIDENT IN THE RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. MAJOR CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WITHOUT MUCH
ORGANISATION. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM
BUT DO NOT DEEPEN IT FURTHER AND ALL AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTHERLY
MOVEMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR 09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS LOW.      

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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