Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 02 Feb 2008 01:54:27 -0600

057 
FXPQ60 PGUM 020754
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
554 PM CHST SAT FEB 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARIANAS. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE AROUND TINIAN AND
SAIPAN...BUT ONLY DRY CUMULUS AROUND GUAM AND ROTA. GUAM MORNING 
SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG TRADE-WIND INVERSION AT ABOUT 5000 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SHOW DRY DAY COMING
UP SUNDAY...SO TRIMMED SUNDAY POPS TO 10 PCT. FROM SUN NIGHT ON...
LOOKS LIKE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS. TOOK
OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SUN NIGHT...BUT KEPT IT IN FOR MON AND MON
NIGHT AS GFS STILL BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. 

LOOKS LIKE SURF SHOULD STAY DOWN FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...WITH A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO MAJURO THIS 
EVENING. A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY BTW NORTHEASTERLIES AND EASTERLIES 
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE TROUGH TO JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI. BASED ON 
THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND KWAJALEIN RADAR IMAGERY...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM THE DATELINE TO MAJURO ACROSS SOUTH OF 
KWAJALEIN TO NORTH OF KOSRAE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
OVER MAJURO THRU TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD OVER TO KOSRAE SUNDAY MORNING 
AND POHNPEI IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAKER TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL 
KEEP CLOUDINESS OVER MAJURO INTO MID-WEEK. PERIODS OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT KOSRAE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ON TOP OF THE ISLAND. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL 
DECREASE OVER POHNPEI BY WEDNESDAY AS CONVERGENCE SHIFTS SOUTH OF 
THE AREA.

LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATES SURF WILL BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY 
LEVELS ALONG NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING SHORES FOR KOSRAE THRU 
TONIGHT...THEN RISES TO 9 FT BY SUNDAY EVENING. SURF ON MAJURO WILL 
STAYS AT 11 TO 13 FT THRU SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SUBSIDES TO BTW 10 
AND 12 FT BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR 
POHNPEI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURF EXPECT TO REACH 11 TO 13 FT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF CHUUK WILL PUSH WEST ALONG 
WITH THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AHEAD 
OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST MIGHT STAY SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW 
CHUUK TO ENJOY RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER INTO MID-WEEK. DRY TRADE-WIND 
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE YAP WITH BEAUTIFUL WEATHER 
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE BREAKING THE DRY TRADE 
REGIME OVER PALAU ON MONDAY BY INTENSIFYING THE TRADE DISTURBANCE 
SOUTH OF THE STATE. DO NOT SEE ANY REASONS TO SUPPORT THIS YET.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON CHUUK BY SUNDAY EVENING AS SURF 
RISES TO BTW 11 AND 12 FT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN

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