Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2008 23:39:07 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZJAN2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5N 116.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM. RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT FLOW AS
WELL AS WEAK TROUGHING. A 20-KNOT SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION WAS
OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOWS THE LLCC IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A RIDGE
AXIS ALLOWING FOR LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE TO
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. SINCE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
168.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 166.9W, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MULTIPLE LLCCS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD, ELONGATED
CYCLONIC TURNING. A 220039Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS CONVERGENT BANDING ON
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS OF THE WESTERN-MOST LLCC.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PAGO PAGO INDICATE SLP NEAR 997 MB AND
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 16 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS FAVORABLE,
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARING MOST OF THE CONVECTION OFF THESE
LOW LEVEL VORTICES TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24 THE MODELS
INDICATE AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE LLCC AS WELL AS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. ALTHOUGH OBSERVED PRESSURES ARE LOW WITH STRONG
WINDS ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE, THE LLCC IS
ELONGATED AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL.
THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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