Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2008 13:35:43 -0600

303 
FXPQ60 PGUM 151935
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
535 AM CHST WED JAN 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WSR-88D REMAINS DOWN. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TRADE-WIND 
DISTURBANCE THAT AFFECTED THE MARIANAS YESTERDAY HAS MOVED INTO THE 
PHILIPPINE SEA. ONLY MINOR TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES ARE SEEN EAST OF 
THE MARIANAS. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE MARIANAS 
APPEARED TO HAVE THINNED ENOUGH TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING 
BEGINNING WITH THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE JUST A FEW CHANGES. WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE
START BASED ON THE CLEARING TREND MENTIONED ABOVE. ADDED MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SHEAR LINE
PROGGED INTO THE FORECAST ZONES BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER KOSRAE AND MAJURO THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS 
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...POHNPEI WILL REMAIN 
FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVERGENCE TO GARNER ONLY 
ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE BY
LATE ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW WEATHER TO IMPROVE A PRECIP CATEGORY FOR
KOSRAE AND MAJURO.

COMPUTER GUIDANCE AND ALTIMETRY OUTPUT ALLOWED FOR THE CANCELLATION 
OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT POHNPEI. MODEL OUTPUT SUPPORTS 
CONTINUING THE ADVISORY FOR KOSRAE AND MAJURO SO HAVE EXTENDED IT. 
AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE HIGH SURF CRITERIA WILL BE MET THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH LOCATED OVER
WESTERN MICRONESIA WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PALAU. CONVECTION LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF YAP WILL MIGRATE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND BRING
SCATTERED PRECIP TO YAP STATE TONIGHT. GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAK CIRCULATION MIGRATING WESTWARD WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSTABLE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR YAP AND PALAU. BEYOND THAT...DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING FAVORABLE WEATHER
TO THE REGION. THIS SAME AIRMASS WILL KEEP CHUUK IN A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MARINE GRIDS. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR COMBINED SEAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TRADE-
WIND SURGE APPEARS TO BE PEAKING SO WENT WITH SURF JUST BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLD ON EAST FACING REEFS TODAY. ANOTHER ITEM TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE NORTH FACING REEFS TOMORROW AS LONG PERIOD
NORTH SWELL ARRIVE. AGAIN...SURF WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO THE
ADVISORY THRESHOLD ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST THURSDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MCELROY/LEE

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