Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2008 12:44:28 -0600

408 
FXPQ60 PGUM 261844
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
444 AM CHST SUN JAN 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OLD SHEAR LINE STILL LIES BETWEEN GUAM AND CHUUK...WITH DRY
MODIFIED MID-LATITUDE AIR NORTHWEST OF THAT SHEAR LINE FLOWING
ACROSS THE MARIANAS. LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG INVERSION NEAR
6000 FEET...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. THUS WE
STILL HAVE STRATO-CUMULUS AT 4-6 THSD FT WITH ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.
BUT GFS/UKMET BRING WINDS BACK TO EAST LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY REPLACE THE MODIFIED POLAR AIR WITH
TROPICAL AIR. THIS IN TURN SHOULD KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AREA...BUT WITH OVERALL LESS CLOUDINESS THAN TODAY.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
NORTH SWELL WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF HIGH SURF ALIVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT ON NORTHERN EXPOSURES. BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COMBINED SEAS SHOULD BE 9 FT
OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY TRADES WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. 
HOWEVER...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF 
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY. 
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW...SO HAVE 
CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL 
UPDATES WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHETHER SCATTERED POPS SHOULD 
BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

WW3 MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE LARGE AND LONG PERIOD 
NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING IN THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE...KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD 
FOR BOTH PALAU AND YAP. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF SYSTEM OVER 
EASTERN MICRONESIA LED TO A REVISED CHUUK FORECAST...TO REMOVE 
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

BY TUESDAY...HIGH SURF MAY ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/LEE

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