Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2008 01:50:25 -0600

373 
FXPQ60 PGUM 140750
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
550 PM CHST MON JAN 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST AND
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST
TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DWELLS NORTHWARD OF THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT 48 TO
72 HOURS. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO LAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

MARINE...
MADE CHANGES FOR THE MARINE GRIDS...MODIFIED TRADE-WIND GENERATED
SWELLS AND UPDATED THE ARRIVAL TIME FOR THE EXPECTED NORTH SWELLS.
OBVIOUSLY...TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELLS WILL REMAIN AT 5 TO 7 FEET
WHICH WILL KEEP RIP RISK HEIGHTS AT MODERATE-LEVELS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SURF HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THEREFORE EXPECT A FEW SMALL BUMPS ALONG EAST AND
NORTHEAST SHORES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
GFS AND UKMET SHOW HAVE SHIFTED GEARS A BIT SINCE 24 HOURS AGO... 
WEAKENING THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SOMEWHAT AND PUSHING IT 
SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS 
END AT POHNPEI BY TUE MORNING AND AT MAJURO BY WED MORNING. KOSRAE 
PICKS UP SCT SHWRS TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...WHEN GFS PUSHES THE 
BAND JUST SOUTH OF THERE. KEPT ISOL FOR THU THU-SAT AT KOSRAE...BUT 
SHOWERS REMAIN CLOSE TO SOUTH SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODEL 
RUNS. NO REAL CHANGE TO THE SURF FORECAST...WITH HAZ SURF MOST OF 
THE WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING ON THE NEAR-EQ TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE WEST 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DEVELOP A CIRCULATION. IT SHOULD BRING SHOWERS 
TO CHUUK THRU TUE NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOL THUNDER 
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST...KOROR AND YAP SHOULD SEE SCT SHWRS 
AND ISOL THUNDER MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

BAQUI/MIDDLEBROOKE

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