Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2008 03:19:13 -0600

636 
WWPS21 NFFN 110900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 11/0918 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA CENTRE [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.6 SOUTH 172.2 WEST AT 110600 UTC.

FOR FUTTHER INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ELISA PLEASE REFER
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADIJan
11/0805 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [10001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 175.4E AT
110600UTC AND SLOW MOVING EAST. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. HOWEVER,
IT SEEMS THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CENTRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL
TROUGH AND IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHICH ONE WILL BE MORE DOMINANT. SST
AROUND 29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS. CONVECTION IS ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT, BUT STILL LACKS ORGANISATION. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH A
VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS]
PREDICT 08F TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE.     

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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