Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 03:04:50 -0600

072 
WWPS21 NFFN 120900    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 12/0904 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.3S 179.1W AT
120600UTC AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT EIR/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 29-30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
RECENT QUIKSCAT SHOWS FEW CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE TROUGH BUT
A MORE DEFINED CENTRE NEAR 14.5S 178.0E, WHICH MAY MOST LIKELY BE THE
ORIGINAL CENTRE. HOWEVER, THE 0600UTC POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY
SURFACE REPORTS. CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE TO THE NORTH BUT IS STILL
DISORGANISED. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER 250HPA RIDGE WITH UPPER LEVEL WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLIES STEERING IT SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH AN ACTIVE
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,EC,GFS]
PREDICT 08F TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE IT SOUTHEAST IN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.     

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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