Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:43:04 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZJAN2008//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101951ZJAN2008//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA)
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N 127.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC IS EVIDENT IN A 102057Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE LLCC REMAINS
WEAK AND IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FUELING CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 110000Z TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (ELISA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.0S 173.3W, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA,
FIJI, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 102100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

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