Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2008 14:02:41 -0600

383 
FXPQ60 PGUM 112002
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
602 AM CHST SAT JAN 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF THE
MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS40 BRINGS A WEAK IMPULSE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME. FORECAST ALREADY HAD AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...
AND IT IS NOT AT ALL CERTAIN THAT SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO
MERIT SCATTERED WORDING...SO NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD
AND REFRESHED WINDS WITH THE NEWEST DATA WHICH WAS A LITTLE BETTER
AT THE ANALYSIS FRAME AND SIMILAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE-WIND SURGE IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVES AND SWELL.
HOWEVER...THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. JUST SOMETHING FOR THE MARINERS TO BE
AWARE OF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND IS 
PUSHING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF TRADE-WIND SURGE INTO THE EASTERN 
MICRONESIA. THIS HAS CREATED A TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY 
MEANDERING ACROSS THE EASTERN MICRONESIAN STATES AND MARSHALL 
ISLANDS ALONG 6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SAILING ACROSS THE MARSHALLS 
AND KOSRAE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT. 
AFTER A BRIEF DELAY OF RAINFALL TODAY...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER 
POHNPEI LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. FOR NOW MODELS ARE STALLING THE 
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS POHNPEI THROUGH NORTH OF KOSRAE TO THE 
MARSHALLS INTO NEXT WEEK. WETNESS WILL PERSIST OVER POHNPEI AND THE 
MARSHALLS WHILE KOSRAE WILL ESCAPE MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM THE 
BOUNDARY.

BESIDES RAIN THE TRADE-WIND SURGE IS ALSO PUSHING IN NORTHEAST SWELL 
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATES SURF ALONG 
NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING SHORES OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE HAS 
REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR MAJURO DANGEROUS SURF IS EXPECTED TO 
ARRIVE BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE KEEP ALL SURF ADVISORIES ACTIVE FOR ALL 
THE MAJOR ISLANDS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL 
TROUGH IS SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS YAP AND PALAU. LINGERING 
CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP CLOUDINESS OVER YAP AND MORE SHOWERS FOR PALAU 
TODAY. THE TROUGH SHALL STAY SOUTH AND WEST ENOUGH TO PROVIDE BOTH 
STATES WITH RELATIVELY DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHUUK WILL 
STAY DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN TRADE CONVERGENCE FINALLY VISITS 
FROM THE EAST. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL WET THE ISLAND INTO MIDWEEK. 
THIS SAME CONVERGENCE ZONE MIGHT EVENTUALLY PROVOKE THE 
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SWINGING BACK OVER PALAU AND YAP BY MIDWEEK. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

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