Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2008 01:49:27 -0600

595 
FXPQ60 PGUM 280749
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
549 PM CHST MON JAN 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHEAR LINE HAS BACKED UP TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND ROTA...AND SHOULD CLEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN 
AROUND PM FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE TIME. WILL ADJUST GRIDS 
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AIR UPSTREAM FROM THE SHEAR LINE WILL HAVE A MORE MARITIME TROPICAL 
CHARACTER. BELIEVE PROMINENT TRADE-WIND INVERSION WILL BE WEAKER IN 
THIS AIR MASS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SEASONABLY DRY 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE BOOMERANGING BOUNDARY. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL RUNS HINT AT SOME TRADE-WIND 
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING LATER THIS WEEK...BUT NATURE AND TIMING OF 
ANY PERTINENT SYSTEMS TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL AS PREVIOUS WITH A TRADE-WIND SURGE
MOVING THRU EASTERN MICRONESIA. BASED ON VISIBLE AND QUIKSCAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CORE OF THE TRADE-WIND SURGE IS ENTERING
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE REST
OF MICRONESIA BY TUESDAY. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SURGE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE
MARSHALLS THRU TONIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI. MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE TRADE SURGE WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR MAJURO BY TUESDAY AND THEN THE REST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY.

LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORES THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CHUUK...POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE OLD SHEAR LINE IS KEEPING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PALAU THIS EVENING AND WILL LINGER THRU TONIGHT. DRYER TRADES
ALREADY OVER YAP WILL THEN REACH PALAU BY TUESDAY AS WELL.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF A TRADE SURGE MIGHT BRING BACK SOME
MORE CLOUDINESS FOR PALAU THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT NO MAJOR IMPACT
IS EXPECTED. YAP WILL BE OUT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD OVER CHUUK
FROM THE EAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE STABLE AIR MASS
MENTIONED ABOVE REACHES CHUUK ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVE WATCH HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH RESPECT TO COMBINED SEAS IN 
MARIANAS WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IPAN BUOY COMES IN BETWEEN 
5 AND 6 FEET...SO NORTH SWELL WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING 
COMBINED SEAS TO SCA HEIGHTS. MODEL WIND FORECAST GRIDS SEEM TO 
TRENDING DOWNWARD IN TANDEM...SO NO LONGER FORESEE AN SCA FOR 
COMBINED SEAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/CHAN

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