Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2008 13:32:04 -0600

346 
FXPQ60 PGUM 041931
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
531 AM CHST SAT JAN 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE MARIANAS AND A SHEAR LINE BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEAR LINE SEEMS ON SATELLITE TO BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD. SOUTH MOVEMENT IS BEING CAUSED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR IN THE MID-LATITUDES. SPLIT ZONES TO INCREASE CLOUDS AT
TINIAN AND SAIPAN. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE
WHATSOEVER. NEW GFS40 SEEMS TO DO SOME SQUIRRELLY THINGS WITH THE
WINDS WITH SUDDEN INCREASES AND DECREASES...SO DID NOT EVEN
REFRESH THE WINDS TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGED THE CLOUDS AS MENTIONED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND 
SURGE HAS LIFTED NORTHWEST OF MAJURO AND KOSRAE...BUT IS STILL OVER 
POHNPEI AND THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. AS THE 
RESULT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVER KOSRAE AND MAJURO 
TODAY...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER POHNPEI AND THE 
NORTHERN MARSHALLS INTO THE EVENING. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MIGHT HELP 
TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER POHNPEI AS WELL. FAIR CONDITIONS
SHALL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY. A NEW TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE 
WILL THEN BRING MORE RAIN FOR THE MARSHALLS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS 
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD INTO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BY 
MID WEEK.

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL SUGGESTS HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAJURO...AND INTO MONDAY FOR KOSRAE. SURF 
HEIGHTS SHALL DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL FOR MAJURO BY EARLY SUNDAY 
MORNING. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE INDUCED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS FINALLY MAKING ITS 
WAY TOWARD CHUUK. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER CHUUK TODAY WITH SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERS ARRIVING THIS EVENING AND LAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. 
RESIDUE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECT TO KEEP CLOUDINESS OVER THE 
ISLAND STATE INTO NEXT WEEK. A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH PALAU AND 
YAP WILL ADD SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. 
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING AT 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR YAP AND PALAU THROUGH THIS EVENING. 
SURF HEIGHTS WILL THEN SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY EARLY SUNDAY 
MORNING.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

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