Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 01:27:31 -0600

263 
FXPQ60 PGUM 120727
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
527 PM CHST SAT JAN 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS...CLOUDY AND SHOWER
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS DID SHOW...AND THE LAST FEW
FORECASTS DID INCLUDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...IT WAS HARD TO SEE IF THE CLOUDS WOULD REALLY
MATERIALIZE. THE REASON FOR THE DIFFICULTY IN ACCEPTING THIS WAS
THAT REALITY WAS NOT FORTHCOMING. EARLIER SATELLITE IMAGERY DID
NOT SHOW ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE THE CLOUDS. THIS HAS CHANGED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SATELLITE DOES NOW INDEED SHOW CLOUDS TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA IN THE FORM OF A WEAK TRADE- WIND
DISTURBANCE...HEDGEHOG. THE TIMING OF THE HEDGEHOG WOULD INDICATE
CLOUDS COMING IN JUST BEFORE NOON ON SUNDAY. ITS MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY AND YOU MIGHT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO EXIT THE AREA LATER ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SATELLITE DOES SHOW ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...A HEDGEHOG PUP...BEHIND THE FIRST ONE. SO WITH THIS
IN MIND LEFT CLOUDS IN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE CLOUDS BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHEN THE SHOWERS WILL BE
NEARLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY DRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF LONG-
RANGE MODELS DO INDICATE A SHEARLINE SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
MARIANAS NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. I DID PUT THIS IN THE GRIDS BUT
ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

&&
.MARINE...
THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THAT THE SEAS AND SWELLS THAT ARE IN THE
FORECAST ARE VALID. KEPT THIS IN AND AS THERE WILL NO REASON TO CHANGE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS ALIVE AND WELL IN EASTERN MICRONESIA... 
EXTENDING FROM POHNPEI EAST ACROSS MAJURO TO THE DATE LINE. GFS AND 
UKMET EXTEND THIS BAND WESTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING MAJURO 
AND POHNPEI IN SCT SHWRS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. KOSRAE SHOULD SEE 
A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT THE GFS/UKMET KEEP THE CONVERGENT ZONE 
JUST NORTH OF THERE THEREAFTER...SO JUST ISOLATED FROM SUNDAY ON.

WW3 MODEL SHOWS A BREAK IN THE HIGH SURF FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE SUN 
NITE AND MONDAY...BUT HIGHER SEAS RETURN TUESDAY. HAVE UPDATED THE 
CFWPQ TO REFLECT THAT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENT ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE REACHES CHUUK SUNDAY AND 
STAYS A FEW DAYS WITH SCT SHWRS. MEANWHILE...PALAU AND YAP STAY 
FAIRLY DRY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH UNTIL 
WEDNESDAY WHEN TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE MEETS THE NEAR-EQ WESTERLIES 
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO BOTH LOCATIONS 
WED-THU AS THE GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP A WEAK BROAD CIRCULATION SOUTH 
OF PALAU. THE HIGH SURF DISCUSSION ABOVE ALSO APPLIES TO CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/MIDDLEBROOKE

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