Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2008 13:52:29 -0600

127 
FXPQ60 PGUM 181952
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
552 AM CHST SAT JAN 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS MORNING. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER FORECAST. THE BIG QUESTION STILL IS...WILL
THE SHEAR LINE MAKE INTO THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS? ALL EXCEPT THE GFS
ARE LEANING AWAY FROM PUSHING THE SHEAR LINE SOUTH OF SAIPAN.
UKMET WASHES OUT THE SHEAR LINE. NGAPS AND KMA KEEP THE SHEAR LINE
NORTH OF SAIPAN. ITS HARD TO PIN DOWN WHAT THE ECMWF IS TRYING TO
SHOW. IT HAS BLOBS OF SHOWERS DANCING AROUND FROM DIFFERENT 12
HOUR PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZED FOCUS. THE GFS BRINGS DOWN
CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAS SHOWERS MOVING INTO SAIPAN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA MONDAY. THINGS CLEAR OUT BY
TUESDAY. 

ITS HARD TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. SATELLITE AND QUICK SCAT ANAL
DO SHOW SHEAR LINES TO THE NORTH. THESE SHEAR LINES SEEM WEAK
THOUGH. EVEN IF THEY DO MAKE IT DOWN IT IS HARD TO SAY IF THEY
WILL CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...KEPT
FORECAST AS IS SINCE I WOULD HATE TO FLIP FLOP ON THE FORECAST
NOW.

EXCEPT FOR SOME WINDY PERIODS LATER IN THE FORECAST...LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MAJOR WEATHER MAKERS WILL AFFECT THE MARIANAS AFTER TUESDAY.

&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE HEAR. THE EAST TRADE-WIND INDUCED SWELL AND THE
NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE HEIGHTS OF THE
SURF REMAINS JUST UNDER HAZARDOUS. AT PRESENT TIME THE CURRENT
WAVE WATCH FORECAST DOES NOT PUSH THE SURF INTO THE HAZARDOUS
RANGE...BUT ONLY A FOOT SEPARATES US FROM HAZARDOUS AND IT WOULD NOT BE
DIFFICULT TO BROACH THIS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS 
THROUGH TODAY. WEATHER IMPROVES FOR ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT THOUGH AS 
AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. HAVE KEPT PARTLY 
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN WORDING BEYOND TONIGHT AS 
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE 
REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY CANCELED FOR MAJURO. EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR KOSRAE THOUGH...DUE TO THEIR LOWER 
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST TWO FORECAST 
PERIODS FOR CHUUK. BEYOND THAT...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL 
USHER IN FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION. FURTHER TO WEST OVER 
PALAU...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SCATTERED POPS FOR FIRST FEW FORECAST 
PERIODS...IR SATELLITE AND MODELS WERE JUST NOT SUPPORTING COVERAGE. 
UNANTICIPATED SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OFF THE PHILIPPINE 
COAST MAY HAVE SAPPED SOME OF THE ENERGY THAT MODELS HAD PROGGED FOR 
TODAY. SO HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THEM. NO 
CHANGES TO THE YAP FORECAST...LOOKS LIKE FAVORABLE WEATHER THROUGH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/LEE

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