Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Storm 10w Warning Nr 07//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 05 Aug 2008 09:55:16 -0500

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (KAMMURI) HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED WHILE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION DESPITE SLOW CONSOLI-
DATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD AND A 051048Z SSMI PASS. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. TS 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
CLOUD DRIFT WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS EASTERN CHINA TO THE NORTH OF
TS 10W.
3. FORECAST REASONING
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ISSUE OF THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
TO THE NORTH. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TS 10W TO INTEN-
SIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL, BUT THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
TEMPERED BY PASSAGE OVER DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INCREAS-
ING LAND INTERACTION. AS TS 10W MOVES INLAND AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL
TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DISSIPATE FULLY BY TAU 48.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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