Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:54:14 -0600

127 
FXPQ60 PGUM 011954
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
554 AM CHST WED JAN 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR LINE NOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MOVING
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. THE SHEAR LINE MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
SAIPAN. PROBABLY THE HARDEST THING TO FORECAST FOR IN THE MARIANAS
IS HOW FAR SOUTH A SHEAR LINE WILL PENETRATE INTO THE MARIANAS. 
EVEN IF IT DOES NOT GO ALL THE WAY TO GUAM...MODELS DO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR A FEW DAYS. OLD FORECAST BROUGHT IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. LOOKING AT NEW MODEL RUNS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...CHANGED THIS TO THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT THE CLOUDS IN
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TOO LONG.

WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN IN THE MODELS FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE MARIANAS TODAY. HAZARDOUS SURF WILL BE
GENERATED BY THIS SWELL AND REMAIN UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. 
&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS PROGGED BY ANY OF 
THE MODELS TO AFFECT THESE ISLANDS. BIGGEST THING IS A LOT OF CIRRUS 
AS SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS SET 
OF DISCUSSIONS...THE HIGH SURF FOR MAJURO FOR TODAY AND THE RETURN 
OF HIGH SURF FOR KOSRAE ON THURSDAY ARE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENTS 
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE TONED DOWN THE 
MAX HEIGHTS A LITTLE...THEY STILL ARE SUGGESTING SURF OF UP TO 15 FT 
REACHING THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MAJURO BY THURSDAY. KOSRAE STAYS 
JUST BELOW THE LOWER HIGH SURF CRITERION OF 8 FEET FOR EAST FACING 
REEFS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PALAU WATERS...BUT THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE WEAKENED A BIT OVER 
NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...MODELS WANT TO DRY OUT THIS REGION AS WELL. SO 
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AS IN THE ABOVE 
DISCUSSION...THE WAVE AND SURF ACTION APPEAR TO BE THE MOST 
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WAVE MODELS HAVE BEEN 
CONSISTENT FOR PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH BRINGING IN THE NORTH SWELL 
THAT HAS CURRENTLY REACHED THE MARIANAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IF 
ANYTHING...LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN EVEN HIGHER WITH NORTH SWELLS OF 
8 FEET AT 11 SECONDS EXPECTED TO PEAK BY THURSDAY AND THE INITIAL 
PULSE ARRIVING BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WE NO LONGER HAVE THE 
NICE NEAR REAL-TIME SATELLITE ALTIMETRY DISPLAY...WW3 ANALS SUPPORT 
THIS PREDICTION FAIRLY WELL. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/EDSON

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