Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2008 13:54:52 -0600

376 
FXPQ60 PGUM 071954
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
554 AM CHST TUE JAN 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SHEAR LINE IS JUST SOUTH OF GUAM...BRINGING SCATTTERED SHOWERS TO
GUAM AND ROTA. DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO TINIAN AND SAIPAN...
ENDING THE SHOWERS UP THERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE DETAILS OF THE SHEAR LINE VERY WELL...
KEEPING THE ACTIVE PORTION A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH. RADAR LOOP SHOWS
NO NORTH-SOUTH MOVEMENT OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS...WHICH IS
AFFECTING ONLY GUAM AND ROTA...AND MODELS GIVE NO REAL REASON TO
EXPECT THE LINE TO GO BACK NORTH BEFORE IT WEAKENS. THUS I HAVE
ENDED SCT SHOWERS FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN...BUT WILL KEEP ISOLATED
JUST IN CASE! BY WEDNESDAY THE SHEAR LINE WEAKENS TO THE POINT
THAT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST...THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL LINGER UNTIL THU.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE SCA AS IN PREVIOUS FCST...WITH 10-FT SEAS FOR
MARIANAS WATERS TODAY AND GUAM/ROTA WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ADJUSTED A FEW THINGS...I LOWERED THE COMBINED SEAS FOR MAJURO TO 
NEAR 10 FT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL 
INDICATED SEAS INCREASING FROM 6 TO 7 FT ON WEDNESDAY TO 8 TO 10 FT 
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WW3 WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS DATA MAY 
FLUCTUATE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. KEPT WINDS FROM THE EAST FOR THE 
FIRST TWO PERIODS OVER KOSRAE. A TRADE SURGE JUST NORTH OF THE 
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS 
ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT MAJURO THE MOST BUT WILL LOOK OUT FOR POHNPEI 
AND KOSRAE FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. SCATTERED POPS ARE INCLUDED 
IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST OVER MAJURO TO REFLECT THIS EVENT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
GFS IS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF KOROR AROUND THURSDAY...
THUS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST MAY REACH YAP DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...HAVE INCLUDED SCATTERED POPS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY TO REFLECT THIS EVENT. CHUUK WILL BE
LESS AFFECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR PMZ153-154.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM CHST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151-152.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/BAQUI

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