Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2008 13:51:41 -0600

014 
FXPQ60 PGUM 051951
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 AM CHST WED FEB 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WIND
FLOW WAS ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW THAT WINDS PEAK TODAY AND THEN WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY WINDS START INCREASING AND WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY. NGPS
ALSO HINT AT THE SAME STORY LINE. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A VIGORUS
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM SATURDAY. THE NGPS
AND ECMWF DO NOT SHOW THIS. BOTH THESE MODELS HOWEVER DO SHOW A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS...BUT KEEP THEM SOUTH OF 10N. THE WINDS
PROBABLY INCREASE BECAUSE OF THE TIGHTEND GRADIENT. STILL HARD TO
SEE IF WE GET ANY RAIN FROM THIS TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE DURING THE 
WEEKEND. THE GFS...THE MODEL THAT HAS SHOWN THIS FOR DAYS...KEEPS
THE BULK IF NOT ALL OF THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF GUAM. WILL KEEP IT OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN. WE PROBABLY WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW MORE SHOWERS...BUT PROBABLY NOT
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.

&&
.MARINE...
GUST TO 30 KNOTS IN FORECAST FOR TODAY. WITH GUST IN THE MID 20S
THIS MORNING AT APRA HARBOR AND MID 20S ON THE VAD SEEM THIS AS
QUITE POSSIBLE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GUST UNTIL SATURDAY WITH
INCREASE GRADIENT WINDS AS MENTIONED ABOVE. 

NORTHERLY SWELL AND EASTERLY TRADE-WIND SWELL CONTNIUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SEAS WILL BE AROUND 9 FEET UNTIL
SUBSIDING TONIGHT. BOUY SEEMS TO AGREE...SO WILL NOT ISSUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST REASONING. HIGH SURF EPISODE ON 
NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL 3 FORECAST 
POINTS...WITH A BRIEF PAUSE ON POHNPEI LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
BEFORE THE SURF REBUILDS. MAJURO FORECAST LOOKS RELATIVELY 
DRY...WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH. 
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS ALREADY SETTING UP OVER KOSRAE...WITH 
MODELS CALLING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH 
SATURDAY. UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS FORECAST SCENARIO 
IS PLAUSIBLE. FOR POHNPEI...STILL LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO 
RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE STORY WITH NO HIGH SURF EVENTS 
FORESEEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SAME SYSTEM AFFECTING POHNPEI 
WILL AFFECT CHUUK THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. 
TRADE-DISTURBANCE/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND TO 
KOROR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE TAKEN A WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE WITH 
RESPECT TO WEATHER SYSTEMS IN EASTERN MICRONESIA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/MCELROY

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