Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2008 02:15:31 -0600

130 
FXPQ60 PGUM 200815
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
615 PM CHST SUN JAN 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SHEAR LINE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF SAIPAN. ONLY A FEW TRADE-WIND
SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHEAR LINE IS LOCATED NORTH OF SAIPAN WITH
ANOTHER SHEAR LINE NORTH OF THAT. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE SHEAR
LINE DOWN TO TINIAN AND SAIPAN. UKMET ALSO DOES THE SAME. DID NOT
GO TO HEAVY HANDED WITH THE SHEAR LINE...BUT BROUGHT CLOUDS DOWN TO
TINIAN AND SAIPAN AFTER MID NIGHT TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL PUSH DOWN TO GUAM AND ROTA MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE NOT
SO CERTAIN WHAT HAPPENS AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...BUT I LEFT THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FIGURING ASSORTED JUNK CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM THE DISSIPATING SHEAR LINE WILL MOVE ACORSS
THE AREA. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY WEDNESDAY AS THE SHEAR LINE
TOTALLY EVAPORATES...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO A FEW OF THE MODELS.
 
&&

.MARINE...
SURF OBS INDICATE THAT HIGH SURF HAS REACHED GUAM. FOR THIS REASON
AND INCREASED SURF ON THE WAVE WATCH PRODUCTS THE HAZARDOUS SURF
ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TO GUAM AND ROTA. IT WAS ALSO EXTENDED IN
TIME...TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REACH POHNPEI AND NORTH OF 
KOSRAE EARLY MONDAY MORNING. KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER POHNPEI FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND LEFT 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER KOSRAE. NUMERICAL MODELS 
ARE CONSISTENT BY KEEPING TRADE-WIND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WAVE WATCH MODEL DATA REPORTED SUBSIDING 
TRADE-WIND GENERATED SWELLS FOR KOSRAE THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE 
CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT 3 PM CHST. A NORTH SWELL NEAR 6 
FT MAY ARRIVE TO POHNPEI BY TUESDAY...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS 
SITUATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MAY REQUIRE ADVISORY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR IS CONNECTED TO A WEAK 
CIRCULATION SOUTH OF CHUUK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 
CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH AND WEST OF CHUUK LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EXISTING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO 
DRIFT WESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH MEANS THAT SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. 
TRADE-WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
DAYS...CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS TO MOVE OVER YAP AND 
KOROR BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM CHST TUESDAY 
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/BAQUI

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