Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 03 Jan 2008 00:46:45 -0600

167 
FXPQ60 PGUM 030646
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
446 PM CHST THU JAN 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE HAS DEEPENED TO 700 MB SINCE YESTERDAY IN MODERATE TRADE-
WIND FLOW...AS SHOWN BY THE MORNING SOUNDING. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED
SMALL SHOWERS SPRINKLED ACROSS THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE SHEAR
LINE NW OF THE ISLANDS HAS MADE NO PROGRESS SINCE YESTERDAY...IN
FACT IT HAS RETREATED A BIT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAST 3 GFS RUNS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THRU THE REGION
ON FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF SLACKENING OF THE TRADES FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT NO INCREASE IN SHOWERS. THIS SLACKENING IS
INCLUDED IN THE HOURLY WIND GRIDS BUT HAS LITTLE EFFECT ON THE
TEXT FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE IN OUR PATTERN OF MODERATE
TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVYS STILL ON TRACK TO EXPIRE FRI
EVENING AS NW SWELL DIMINISHES. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN MICRONESIA. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER DEGREE. HAVE KEPT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WITH ISOLATED PRECIP COVERAGE IN
THE FORECAST...OWING TO LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

LATEST WW3 OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH SURF WARNING CRITERIA 
ALONG NORTHEAST EXPOSURES OF MAJURO AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA 
ALONG NORTHEAST EXPOSURES FOR KOSRAE...HAVE EXTENDED HIGH SURF 
PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...LACK OF MAJOR WEATHER 
FEATURES WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST CWFPQ2.

WW3 CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR YAP AND 
PALAU THROUGH SATURDAY...HAVE EXTENDED HIGH SURF PRODUCTS 
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY 
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/LEE

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