Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 23:48:08 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZJAN2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
115.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FROM A COOLER AND
DRIER MIDLATITUDE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. THE LLCC HAS
BECOME LESS DEFINED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HAS TRACKED NORTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. A 230032Z SSMI/S 85GHZ MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
AS A RESULT OF GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DISPLACING THE CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS THE LLCC
TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. SINCE THE DISTURBANCE
STILL HAS 15 TO 20-KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
166.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 167.2W, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT THE CENTER
AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 230122Z TRMM
37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING DISPLACED TO THE EAST. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A QUASI-
STATIONARY LOW LEVEL THAT IS CUT OFF FROM THE STEERING FLOW. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WRAPPING TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A SKEW-T ANALYSIS AT PAGO PAGO SHOWS DRIER AIR
HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE MID-LEVELS, AS A RESULT OF THE BAROCLINIC
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. DUE TO THE WELL-DEFINED
LLCC, BUT THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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