Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2008 01:48:33 -0600

429 
FXPQ60 PGUM 240748
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
548 PM CHST THU JAN 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA OF
THE MARIANAS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST ONE
MORE MAJOR LINE OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH OF ROTA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A RATHER CLEAR EVENING IN STORE TONIGHT.
MODELS CURRENTLY EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT...DUE TO THE NEAR APPROACH OF A SHEAR LINE IN THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SHOW THIS ROUND OF COLD AIR
HAS LOST MOST OF ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH...BUT SINCE THE FORECAST IS
WORDED MAINLY FOR INCREASED CLOUDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
RAIN...LEFT IT ALONE AT THIS TIME. JUST REFRESHED THE WINDS SINCE
THEY SEEMED TO HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE AND IT WAS A BIT WINDY LAST
NIGHT AT LEAST IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH SWELL ARRIVING SOON WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY ON NORTH FACING REEFS. WHEN THIS IS COMBINED WITH WIND
WAVES THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SOMETHING FOR THE MARINERS TO KEEP
IN MIND IF THEY ARE PLANNING TRAVEL FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOME VERY ISOLATED 
SHOWERS...MOST ISLANDS IN THIS REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
A BREEZY AND DRYING TRADE WIND REGIME. MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN 
THE OUTLOOK. ON THE OTHER HAND...WW3 SUGGESTS THAT THE SURF SHOULD BE 
BACK UP TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH HUGGING THE EQUATOR THIS WEEK... 
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY DRY NORTH OF 5N...WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR PALAU AND CHUUK. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS REMAIN A GOOD POSSIBILITY TOMORROW FOR THESE TWO ISLANDS AS WELL.  

SURF  AT CHUUK HAS WEAKENED BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA THIS 
AFTERNOON...BASED ON BOTH VERSIONS OF THE WW3 MODEL...HOWEVER EXPECT 
A NEW SURGE AS WITH POHNPEI BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVE MODEL INDICATES 
THAT HAZARDOUS SURF SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR YAP AND OR 
SUNDAY PALAU ON NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN FACING REEFS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/EDSON

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