Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 03 Jan 2008 13:51:24 -0600

473 
FXPQ60 PGUM 031951
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 AM CHST FRI JAN 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHEAR LINE RUNS JUST NORTH OF THE MARIANAS WATERS COASTAL ZONES
AROUND ANATAHAN VOLCANO. RADAR IS RETURNING A FEW ECHOES FROM IT
WITH TOPS OF OVER 30 THOUSAND FEET. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED
TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS KEEPING UP A RATHER DRY TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SAW NO REASON TO MAKE CHANGES OTHER THAN A REFRESH OF THE WINDS
SINCE THEY SEEMED TO BE DECREASING A BIT FURTHER IN THE NEW RUN
AND OBSERVATIONS SEEMED TO BE SUPPORTING THAT. SHEAR LINE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL ZONES FOR A FEW DAYS
THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
BETWEEN THE DECREASING WINDS AND A PLUNGE OF 1 FOOT IN THE IPAN
BUOY READING OVER THE LAST 4 HOURS AND RETREATING 10 FOOT COMBINED
SEAS IN THE GRIDS...DECIDED THIS WAS PROBABLY A GOOD TIME TO
RETIRE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SWELLS ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT...
BUT SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND WILL CONTINUE A
DOWNWARD TREND.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
BASED ON LATEST QUIKSCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE PERSISTENT HIGH 
PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND IS INTRODUCING ANOTHER 
TRADE-WIND SURGE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 10N THROUGH THE 
MARSHALL ISLANDS AND INTO EASTERN MICRONESIA. THIS HAS PROVIDED 
ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONCE THE CORE OF THE TRADE SURGE HAS 
PASSED THROUGH THE ISLANDS DURING SATURDAY...SHOWERS WILL BECOME 
LESS ORGANIZED FROM EAST TO WEST. WEAK TO MODERATE TRADES ARE THEN 
SCHEDULED TO RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK.

LATEST WAVE MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT SURF HEIGHTS WILL DROP 
BELOW HIGH SURF WARNING CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON ON MAJURO BUT 
REMAIN AT HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR 
KOSRAE....HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER POHNPEI HAS NOT REACHED CHUUK 
THIS MORNING. THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF CHUUK IS PROBABLY 
HINDERING ITS PROGRESS. BOTH GFS AND UKMET ARE DELAYING THE EFFECTS 
OF THE TRADE CONVERGENCE FOR CHUUK UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 
SINCE CONVERGENCE TENDS TO WEAKEN OVER TIME...DECIDED TO KEEP 
ISOLATED POP FOR CHUUK AT THIS POINT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO 
STAY OVER PALAU AND YAP THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL CONVERGENCE 
FLOWING TOWARD THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE 
SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME.

COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING AT 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR YAP AND PALAU THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

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