Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2008 13:48:00 -0600

695 
FXPQ60 PGUM 131947
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
547 AM CHST THU FEB 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GUAM AND
ROTA THIS MORNING...WHILE A SHEAR LINE LURKS BETWEEN SAIPAN AND
ANATAHAN. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SAIPAN AND TINIAN ARE HIGH
AND DRY BUT CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END FOR GUAM/ROTA AROUND MID-DAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE...GFS AND UKMET BRING WEAK
SHEAR LINE INTO THE MARIANAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
HIGH SURF ADVY LOOKS GOOD THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT AS NORTH
SWELL PEAKS FRI NIGHT THEN DIMINISHES ONLY SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE 
TO DOMINATE EASTERN MICRONESIA. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE ALONG 5 TO 6N TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR MAJURO WILL BE FRIDAY. KOSRAE COULD SEE 
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

LATEST WAVE WATCH DATA SHOWS A LONG PERIOD (16 SEC) NORTHWEST SWELL 
OF 6 FT ARRIVING AT MAJURO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE HIGH 
SURF ON LAURA AND THE NORTHWEST ISLANDS OF THE ATOLL ON MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY. A LONG PERIOD NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT 
POHNPEI ON SUNDAY AND COULD PRODUCE HIGH SURF THERE. COMBINED SEAS 
OF 10 TO 11 FT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY COULD BE A HAZARD TO 
SMALL BOATS IN POHNPEI STATE. KOSRAE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH SURF 
ADVISORY IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MOSTLY FAVORABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS NEARING 140E...BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO HAVE ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE WEATHER AT YAP AND 
PALAU...MAINLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE 
STRENGTHENS FRIDAY...FORMING A SINGLE LINE CLOSE TO 5N. HEAVIER 
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH A 
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR ISLANDS IN THE LATITUDE BAND 4-6N 
SOUTH OF PALAU AND YAP. THIS COULD BRING SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF TO 
SOUTHWESTERN CHUUK AND SOUTHEASTERN YAP STATES. WET WEATHER WILL 
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF CHUUK...YAP AND KOROR-BABELDAOB OVER 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT OVER MOST 
OF THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

5 TO 6 FOOT NORTH SWELLS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE PERIOD AT CHUUK... 
YAP AND PALAU. HOWEVER...SURF SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. 
WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASING WIND WAVES...COMBINED SEAS OF 9 TO 10 
FEET COULD MAKE INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL HAZARDOUS STARTING AROUND 
SATURDAY NIGHT AT CHUUK AND MONDAY AT YAP AND PALAU.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/STANKO

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