Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 14 Feb 2008 02:13:34 -0600

786 
FXPQ60 PGUM 140813 CCA
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
607 PM CHST THU FEB 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...THE TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER WITHIN
THE GUAM COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. RADAR INDICATES THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THESE CELLS WITH TOPS
OVER 50K. OTHERWISE SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS EXIST OVER ROTA AND GUAM
WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY HAVING MOVED OFF TO THE WEST.
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE AMOUNTED TO OVER 1.2 INCHES
AND OVER 2 INCHES ON ANDERSEN AFB. A SHEAR LINE STILL LINGERS
NORTH OF THE SAIPAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS40...ECMWF...UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW
A SERIES OF SHEAR LINES PUSHING THROUGH THE MARIANAS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT THE PRECIP THAT ANY OF
THESE WILL BRING TO THE ISLANDS IS QUESTIONABLE AND NOT CONSISTENT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THIS FORECAST DOES NOT COMMIT TO SCATTERED 
SHOWERS
FOR ANY OF THESE EPISODES...BUT ADDS SOME CLOUDINESS AS AN INDICATOR
THAT WEATHER WILL PROBABLY BE PASSING THROUGH. WINDS SEEM A LITTLE
HEAVIER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT I WAS NOT SURE IF THIS WAS A NEW
TREND OR JUST A BIAS THAT HAD BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN BY THE PREVIOUS 
SHIFTS. I TRIED NOT TO CHANGE THE WINDS MUCH AND SO SOME PERIODS ON 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY INDICATED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT. WE WILL HAVE TO
SEE.

&&

.MARINE...WW3 RUNS SEEM CONSISTENT AND KEEP THE SIG WAVES JUST
BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE
PUSH TO 10 FEET OVER SAIPAN AND TINIAN OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE 
OUTLOOK...
AFTER TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE WAVES MAY GET STRONGER. SWAPPED PRIMARY
AND SECONDARY GRIDS AS THE NORTH SWELLS SEEM CONSIDERABLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT THAN THE EAST SWELL.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...

CORRECTED

LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS THE 
IMPACT OF THE EXPECTED NNW SWELLS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LARGE 
NNW SWELLS FROM 5 TO 7 FEET WITH PERIODS UP TO 14 SECONDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURF OVER 
KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND MAJURO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OVER 9 FEET.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL DOMINATE LOCAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL-DISTURBANCE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF 
YAP THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REACH YAP IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 
HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING. 
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 
STRENGTHENING TRADE-WINDS CONVERGING FROM THE EAST OF CHUUK WILL 
INDUCE A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER CHUUK 
BY LATE MONDAY. THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. 
A NORTH SWELL OF 6 TO 7 FEET WILL REACH THE ISLANDS BY SATURDAY 
NIGHT. CHUUK WILL LIKELY OBSERVE HAZARDOUS SURF PEAKING SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CHST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 
     GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

EDSON/BAQUI

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