Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 09 Jan 2008 01:37:25 -0600

659 
FXPQ60 PGUM 090737
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
537 PM CHST WED JAN 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS EARLY IN THE DAY. AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN A THIN BAND.
THIS AREA WAS MAINLY OUTSIDE THE GUAM COASTAL WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS40 AND ECMWF INDICATE SHOWER AREA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM BUBBLING UP OVERNIGHT AND BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A
BRIEF TIME TO GUAM. UKMET SHOWS SAME AREA BUT KEEPS IT FURTHER
SOUTH. RADAR AND SATELLITE SEEM TO AGREE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AND FOR THAT REASON SPLIT GUAM FROM THE REST OF THE MARIANAS.

KEPT THE REST OF THE FORECAST BASICALLY AS IS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOME BREEZY
ACROSS GUAM TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE
MARIANAS. THESE ELEVATED TRADE-WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&
.MARINE...
A TRADE-WIND INDUCED EAST SWELL PREVAILS THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE
EARLIER FORECAST HAD THIS IN AND I FELT NO NEED TO TAKE THIS OUT.
ALSO THE EARLIER FORECAST HAD PERIODS OF NORTH SWELL MOVING ACROSS
THE MARIANAS AND THE LATEST WW3 CONCURS. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE...TRADE-WIND SURGE SET TO INFRINGE UPON EASTERN 
MICRONESIAN ZONES TOMORROW. IN RESPONSE...HAVE BROUGHT SCATTERED 
POPS TO MAJURO TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...THEN TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FROM 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GLOBAL WAVE WATCH MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE 
COMBINED SEAS THAT WILL BREACH HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS FOR ALL 
LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND 
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION SOUTH 
OF YAP CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LATEST 
SATELLITE LOOP IS IN LINE WITH UPDATED GFS OUTPUT IN KEEPING SHOWER 
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER YAP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ECMWF 
AND GFS PROG ACTIVITY TO ENCROACH ON PALAU WATERS BY TOMORROW 
MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 
PAST SEVERAL FORECASTS...SO SEE NO NEED TO DEVIATE. FURTHER 
TO THE EAST...A WEAK IMPULSE THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS FAILED TO 
RESOLVE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR CHUUK TONIGHT. 
OTHERWISE CHUUK WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF THE TRADE SURGE TO 
RULE OUT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/LEE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.