Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2008 01:02:05 -0600

346 
FXPQ60 PGUM 310702
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
502 PM CHST THU JAN 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAVE
MOVED WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT RADAR NOW ONLY SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DID VERY LITTLE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS. STILL ANTICIPATE A WEAK
IMPULSE TO MOVE INTO THE MARIANAS OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE
SHORT DURATION OF THIS EPISODE DID NOT WARRANT INCLUSION IN GRIDS.
LIKEWISE...GFS AND MM5 SHOW ANOTHER BRIEF BOUT OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOMETIME LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...SPATIAL COVERAGE AS WELL AS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM DID NOT JUSTIFY ADDING TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MICRONESIA...
GFS/UKMET KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN IN PLACE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SOUTH OF ALL THE
FORECAST LOCATIONS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MODELS HINT THAT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY START COMING BACK AND BRING SHOWERS CLOSER TO
PALAU...CHUUK... PONPEI AND KOSRAE...BUT TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
THAT YET. SO HAVE STAYED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND ISOLATED FROM PREV
FORECAST.

SURF HAS SUBSIDED FOR NOW...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF 
HAZARDOUS SURF FOR A FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION IS KOSRAE...WHERE 
8-FOOT SURF MAY RETURN TO EASTERN EXPOSURES SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

LEE/MIDDLEBROOKE

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