Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 17:23:14 -0600

406 
WWPS21 NFFN 232100    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 23/2322 UTC 2008 UTC.

DEPRESSION 011F [992HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 25.0S 169.8W AT 232100UTC
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 26 DEGREE CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH LLCC EXPOSED. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF
A 250 HPA UPPER DILLUENT REGION AND NORTH OF AN INTENSE SURFACE
RIDGE. 011F HAVE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ALOFT.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS [GFS/UK/GASP] HAVE LITTLE INTESIFICATION OF 011F AND
CONTINUES THE SOUTHWEST MOVEMENTOVER COLDER WATERS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS LOW.    l

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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