Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2008 16:01:13 -0600

434 
FXPQ60 PGUM 152201 AAA
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
801 AM CHST SAT FEB 16 2008

.UPDATE...LINGERING SHEAR LINE JUST NORTH OF GUAM IS KEEPING
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR LINE HAS
INCREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM AIRPORTS AT ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SFC OBS INDICATE THE CEILING IS NEAR OVC SO AMENDED SKY
COVER AND WX TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE SHEAR LINE FOR CONTINUED PROGRESS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CHST FRI FEB 15 2008/ 

SYNOPSIS...THE TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE LINGERS SW OF GUAM...BUT IS 
MOVING AWAY. A SHEAR LINE IS NEAR GUAM...WITH MOST OF ITS CLOUDINESS 
NEAR AND WEST OF THE ISLANDS. LIKEWISE...RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS 
WEST OF THE THE ISLANDS BUT VERY LITTLE TO THE EAST.

DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHEAR LINE WILL 
KEEP SOME CLOUDINESS IN THE AREA ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. MADE 
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF SKY COVER.

MARINE...LATEST WW3 OUTPUT BRINGS 10-FOOT SEAS INTO THE WESTERN 
HALF OF THE MARIANAS WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO HAVE HOISTED A 
SMALL CRAFT ADVY. OTHERWISE...HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS ON TRACK. LOOKS 
LIKE THERE MAY BE A GAP IN THE HIGH SURF MONDAY...THEN MORE NORTH 
SWELL ARRIVES TUESDAY OR SO TO PUMP SURF BACK TO HAZ LEVELS. 

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS THE 
IMPACT OF THE EXPECTED NNW SWELLS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LARGE 
NNW SWELLS FROM 5 TO 7 FEET WITH PERIODS UP TO 14 SECONDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURF OVER 
KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND MAJURO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OVER 9 FEET.

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL DOMINATE LOCAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL-DISTURBANCE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF 
YAP THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REACH YAP IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 
HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING. 
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 
STRENGTHENING TRADE-WINDS CONVERGING FROM THE EAST OF CHUUK WILL 
INDUCE A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER CHUUK 
BY LATE MONDAY. THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. 
A NORTH SWELL OF 6 TO 7 FEET WILL REACH THE ISLANDS BY SATURDAY 
NIGHT. CHUUK WILL LIKELY OBSERVE HAZARDOUS SURF PEAKING SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CHST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR 
     GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MILLER

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