Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2008 13:51:00 -0600

985 
FXPQ60 PGUM 181950
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
550 AM CHST TUE FEB 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. THE SHEAR LINE PRODUCING THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS40 SHOWS SHEAR LINE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IF THE MODEL IS
MORE THAN JUST A FEW MILES OFF...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LAST
BEYOND TODAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED WINDS THAT ARE JUST
BELOW BREEZY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. JUST A LITTLE WETTER THAN
NORMAL DRY SEASON WEATHER BUT NOT OVERLY SO.

&&

.MARINE...
RISING SEAS WILL REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AT TINIAN
AND SAIPAN...AND TONIGHT AT GUAM AND ROTA. NORTH SWELL WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR NORTH FACING REEFS AND BEACHES OF THE MARIANAS. ALL
IN ALL...A GOOD TIME TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER IF YOU POSSIBLY CAN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWER AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WILL KEEP THOSE LOCATIONS UNDER 
MOCLDY SKIES AND GIVE A SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. 
OTHERWISE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OF THE MARSHALLS WILL 
IMPACT MAJURO WITH SCATTERED POPS BY WEDNESDAY EVE AND SPREAD OVER 
THE REMAINING EASTERN ZONES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE 
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
BOTH KOROR AND YAP WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN DURING 
THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE A DISTURBANCE 
CURRENTLY EAST OF CHUUK WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS. SAID DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CHUUK LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

MULTIPLE SWELL COMPONENTS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH SURF FOR CHUUK. 
MEANWHILE...LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVING AT YAP AND PALAU WARRANTED A 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUANCE THIS AM THAT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE 
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL
     5 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR PMZ153-154.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING 
     TO 6 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151-152.

&&

$$

STANKO/LEE

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