Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2008 03:06:13 -0600

023 
WWPS21 NFFN 140900    
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 14/0905 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S 178.9W AT
140600UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 29-30
DEGREE CELCIUS.
A DEFINITE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH
MULTIPLE LOWS EMBEDED IN THE ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE. CONVECTION HAS
SLIGTLY INCREASED WITIHN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. QUIKSCAT MAINTAINS A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY
ARE RISING SLIGHTLY. THERE IS A PULSE OF CONVECTION IN THAT AREA BUT
WITH NO DEFINITE ORGANISATION. CIMMS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM STILL
LIES IN A REGION OF UPPER DILUENCE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A
CONVERGENCE ZONE REMAINS ACTIVE TO THE NORTH AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE LOST 08F.

POTENTIAL FOR 08F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.       

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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