Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2008 13:52:04 -0600

117 
FXPQ60 PGUM 191951
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 AM CHST WED FEB 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT SHEAR LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA
THIS MORNING. THIS SHEAR LINE GENERATED SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ACROSS GUAM TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS NEW MODELS KEEP THINGS THE
SAME. DID EXTEND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS NEW GFS INDICATES THAT THE 
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE DAY AS CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES A LOT OF "LEFT
OVER" CLOUDS IN AREA EVEN IF SHOWERS ARE NOT SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS DEPARTMENT AS WELL. NEW MODELS AGREE THAT
NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER FORECAST. ALSO THE
SWELL WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

NORTH SWELL CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
BE GREAT ENOUGH TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS SURF.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE...HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER 
FOR POHNPEI TODAY AND TONIGHT AS TAIL END OF WESTWARD MOVING WAVE 
EXITS THE REGION. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER OF NOTE...A SURFACE TROUGH 
AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE...MOVES INTO THE MARSHALLS TODAY. 
FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCLUDED SCATTERED POPS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER 
THERE AS WELL. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA AND IR IMAGERY CORRELATES WELL 
WITH THIS. OTHERWISE...CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER OVER MAJURO THROUGH 
THURSDAY BEFORE PROPAGATING WESTWARD OVER KOSRAE THEN POHNPEI BY 
LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THROUGH THE 
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS FOR PALAU AND YAP. FURTHER TO THE 
EAST OVER CHUUK...AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES INTO ZONES TODAY 
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 
TONIGHT. GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS ALL MAINTAIN THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES 
OVER YAP ON FRIDAY AND PALAU ON SATURDAY. SO HAVE MAINTAIN THE 
SCATTERED SHOWER WORDING AND MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING. HAVE 
LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PALAU...YAP AND CHUUK THROUGH 
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST THURSDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM CHST THURSDAY 
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

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