Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2008 03:08:24 -0600

513 
WWPS21 NFFN 180900
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 18/0907 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 22S 165W AT
180600UTC. POSITION IS GOOD DUE TO QUIKSCAT PASS, MTSAT VIS IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOUD ORGANISATION IS WELL DEFINED WITH
FRESH BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO SHEAR OFF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF 13F.  
THERE IS A DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION RIGHT UP TO 200 HPA WITH THE
SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IS AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UK AND US] ARE AGREEING ON WEAKENING 13F WHILST
MOVING IT SOUTHEAST INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AT THE
SAME TIME DEEPENING A LOW THAT IS YET TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF
13F.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CUCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS LOW.  

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.     

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