Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 18:16:29 -0600

634 
WWPS21 NFFN 230000
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 23/0015 UTC 2008 UTC.

DEPRESSION 011F [996HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.7S 166.8W AT 222100UTC
MOVING SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT
PASS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREE CELCIUS.

LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTRE. THE CENTRE
IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGER. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT
AN ACTIVE FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS IN THE NORTHEASTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANTS. ORGANISATION REMAINS FAIR. CIMMS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR BUT HIGH SHEAR FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS WITH LLCC MORE EXPOSED. SYSTEM
LIES TO THE WEST OR NORTH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW [250HPA]. A
VIGOROUS MONSOONAL FLOW SUPPORTS ITS NORTHEASTERN FLANK WHILE GOOD
SOUTHEASTERLIES SUPPORT FROM THE SOUTHERN PART. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
[GFS/UK/GASP] SLIGHTLY DEEPENS 011F AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS MODERATE.    

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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