Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2008 14:02:41 -0600

745 
FXPQ60 PGUM 102002
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
6 AM CHST MON FEB 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A FEW CLOUDS IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT 
EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

.DISCUSSION...
DID NOT ADJUST MUCH IN THE PREVIOUS GRIDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. LATEST GFS WINDS INDICATED A PERIOD OF 
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND MID WEEK BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS. WILL 
FOLLOW NOGAPS AND KEEP THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
A NORTH SWELL OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL ENTER THE MARIANAS BY WEDNESDAY. 
EVEN WITH THIS SWELL...SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW LIGHT 
SPRINKLES THIS MORNING BUT NOT LOOKING AT ANY MAJOR WETTING RAIN 
EVENT.  

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
KEPT EVERYTHING THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. TRADE-WIND 
REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICIPATE MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
OVER MAJURO AND POHNPEI...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED POPS OVER KOSRAE IN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MAJURO WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS MORNING... 
LEAVING KOSRAE UP FOR TODAY. SURF OVER KOSRAE IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL OF 12 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE HIGHLY-TALKED NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF KOROR OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS IS STILL ALIVE BASED ON THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS 
AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LOT OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
TROUGH LIES TO THE SOUTH OF YAP AND EAST OF KOROR. SHOWER ACTIVITY 
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS KOROR TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
YAP WILL ANTICIPATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS 
AS DRIER AIR EXPANDS TO THE NORTH OF YAP. CHUUK WILL BE OBSCURED 
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED POPS CONNECTED TO NORMAL 
TRADE-WIND WEATHER CONDITIONS. 

STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FARTHER NORTH OF YAP ARE 
RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING LARGE SWELLS OVER 6 FEET TOWARD THE END 
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WAVE WATCH DATA INDICATED A COMBINATION OF 
NNW AND NNE SWELLS ARRIVING NEAR YAP AND KOROR BETWEEN THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS IT MAY REQUIRE ADVISORY FOR 
BOTH RESPECTIVE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MILLER/BAQUI

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