Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 01 Jan 2008 02:08:53 -0600

439 
FXPQ60 PGUM 010808
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
608 PM CHST TUE JAN 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE NEAR 150E.
A RIDGE NORTH OF SAIPAN IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADES. A SHEAR
LINE NORTHWEST OF GUAM REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PLACING THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHEAR LINE BY
FRIDAY MORNING AND IT MAY NOT REACH GUAM AT ALL. STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE SHEAR LINE WILL REINFORCE TRADES MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
THE MARIANAS. A RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE TRADES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS DONE WITH
THE GRIDS...CURRENT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS. TRADE WIND REGIME WILL DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG NORTH-FACING EXPOSURES...AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED ON
THIS SHIFT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
GFS/UKMET KEEP A FAIRLY QUIET TRADE-WIND PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS FROM POHNPEI EAST. AS A RESULT...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. BIG ISSUE IS THE SHARP INCREASE IN 
NORTHEAST SWELL DUE TO HIT MAJURO LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING HIGH 
SURF OVER 12 FT WED NITE AND THU. IN ADDITION...KOSRAE IS DUE FOR 
HIGH SURF OF 8 FT OR MORE BY THU AS WIND WAVES PICK UP AND SWELL 
ARRIVES. THUS...WILL NEED HIGH SURF ADVY FOR THESE LOCATIONS WED 
MORNING. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHWRS INVADING SOUTHERN PALAU WATERS... 
SO HAVE FCST SCT SHWRS TONIGHT OVER THOSE WATERS. OTHERWISE...MODELS 
KEEP YAP AND PALAU BETWEEN SHEAR LINE TO THE NORTH AND NEAR-EQ 
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEXT FEW DAYS. CHUUK 
IS IN THE SAME QUIET TRADE-WIND PATTERN AS POINTS EAST...THUS ONLY 
ISOLATED THERE AS WELL. .EASTERN MICRONESIA...

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CHST FRIDAY FOR 
     GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

BAQUI/MIDDLEBROOKE

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