Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2008 02:06:38 -0600

261 
FXPQ60 PGUM 150806
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
606 PM CHST TUE JAN 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERY CLOUDS FROM THE EAST
MOVING OVER GUAM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NEAR GUAM AND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AUTOMATED WEATHER SENSORS ACROSS SOUTHERN GUAM REPORTED GUSTY
WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. CLOUD COVERAGE...WEATHER AND POPS
WERE MODIFIED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT SCATTERED POPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER GUAM AND COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...TRADE WIND REGIME WILL PERSIST. NUMERICAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF A SHEAR LINE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY AS IT
MAY BE TOO EARLY TO COMMENT ON THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY. WSR-88D IS
DOWN UNTIL MAINTENANCE TAKES PLACE IN A WEEK DEPENDING ON THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEEDED APPARATUS. THEREFORE...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING SPOTTER AND WEATHER SENSOR REPORTS FOR
POPS VERIFICATION.

&&

.MARINE...
INHERITED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAZARD EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WW3 INDICATED A RISE IN COMBINED SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT AND
THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NEAR 4 TO 5 FEET BY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL IS FORESEEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
THAT STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. THIS AREA HAS MOVED SOUTH 
OF POHNPEI...BUT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS KOSRAE AND MAJURO. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE 
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT AT KOSRAE AND MAJURO.

DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD FOR POHNPEI AND 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS KOSRAE AND MAJURO.

COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURF HEIGHTS ON CHUUK...POHNPEI AND 
KOSRAE ARE BACK AT ADVISORY LEVEL. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON 
THURSDAY FOR CHUUK AND POHNPEI...DURING THE WEEKEND FOR KOSRAE. ON 
MAJURO SURF WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL UNTIL SATURDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE THAT COVERS EASTERN MICRONESIA CONTINUES 
TO THE WESTERN HALF ACROSS CHUUK STATE. THIS AREA WILL BRING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CHUUK STATE THIS EVENING. 

AN EQUATORIAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PALAU. A SECOND AREA OF 
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PALAU AND YAP TONIGHT. THE 
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE THAT IS NEAR CHUUK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
WESTWARD AND COMBINED WITH THE OTHER TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE TO KEEP 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PALAU THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY 
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF YAP AND AS A RESULT DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
CHST THURSDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

BAQUI/ZIOBRO

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