Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2008 13:51:41 -0600

955 
FXPQ60 PGUM 301951
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 AM CHST THU JAN 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS MORNING. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST. MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
AND THEREFORE LEFT FORECAST PACKAGE PRETTY MUCH INTACT. UKMET AND
GFS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SATELLITE DOES SHOW A FEW CLOUDS NEAR
150E AND THIS IS WHAT THESE TWO MODELS PREDICT COMING INTO THE
MARIANAS. FIGURED THIS IS A LOW CHANCE AND LEFT SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.

&&
.MARINE...
MODELS AND A LATE NIGHT SURF OB SHOWED THAT SURF HAD FALLEN BELOW
HAZARDOUS. SO ELIMINATED THE HAZARDOUS SURF ADVISORY AND ALSO
BROUGHT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE. MODELS AND BUOY ALSO
INDICATE SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WITH THIS IN MIND ALSO TOOK DOWN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY DRY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. KEPT 
FORECASTS FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE BASICALLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUS 
SHIFT...HOWEVER HAVE REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER FOR MAJURO AS I COULD 
NOT FIGURE OUT THE SOURCE THAT WOULD GIVE IT PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY 
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAY PERIOD. PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDS 
WILL INTRUDE FROM THE SOUTH...OTHERWISE THERE IS VERY LITTLE 
DOWNSTREAM WITH REGARDS TO TRADE-WIND SHOWERS.

WW3 MODELS FROM BOTH THE NOGAPS RUN AND THE GFS RUN SUGGEST THAT 
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI SHOULD END TODAY AS IT 
ALREADY IS BORDERLINE FOR KOSRAE. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR A RENEWED SURGE 
FOR BOTH ISLANDS BY SUNDAY. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MOSTLY DRY...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE AREA TO SOUTH OF YAP AND KOROR 
MIGHT BRUSH PARTS OF THE REGION WITH SOME SHOWERS AND HIGHER CLOUD 
COVER TODAY. AFTERWARD...ALL THREE ISLANDS LOOK FAIRLY DRY FOR THE 
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KOROR. HERE...GFS...NOGAPS AND 
ECMWF RUNS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ENHANCED SHOWERS...PROBABLY 
ORIGINATING FROM THE REGION TO THE SOUTH...STARTING ON SUNDAY.

CHUUK'S HIGH SURF SHOULD ALSO END TODAY...BUT MAY RESUME AGAIN LATE 
SUNDAY...IF WE CAN TRUST THE WW3 MODELS.   

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/EDSON

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