Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 05 Jan 2008 13:47:35 -0600

773 
FXPQ60 PGUM 051947
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
547 AM CHST SUN JAN 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS THE SHEAR LINE JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN. SOME OF
THE MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS HAVE TOPS AROUND 45 THOUSAND FEET. IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE CLOUDINESS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MOSTLY
CLOUDY LEVELS...WENT AHEAD AND UPPED THE CLOUDS A BIT SO THE
FORECAST NOW READS PARTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF PARTLY CLOUDY. MODELS
SEEM TO BE COMING INTO LINE SAYING THAT THE SHEAR LINE WILL STALL
JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN RETREAT BACK TO
THE NORTH. RATHER DRY PATTERN OF SHEAR LINES TO THE NORTH...
TROPICAL SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH...AND NOTHING OVER US SEEMS LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. A BIG HIGH IS SUPPOSED
TO MOVE OUT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH COULD CAUSE WINDS TO KICK UP
A BIT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE HIGH AS IT MOVES OFF CHINA.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HARD EVIDENCE LIKE SURF OBSERVATIONS OR ALTIMETRY TO JUDGE
WHETHER OR NOT TO CANCEL THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. EVEN THE BUOY IS
NOT VERY USEFUL...BEING SHIELDED FROM NORTH SWELL BY ITS LOCATION.
THEREFORE FIGURED THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET WAS TO EXTEND THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY UNTIL ZONE ISSUANCE TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS
WERE ALREADY SOMEWHAT UNDER DOING THE SWELL. ACCOMPLISHED THIS
MERELY BY INCREASING THE PERIOD OF THE NORTH SWELL BY 1 SECOND SO
THAT IT MATCHED THE PERIOD FROM LAST NIGHT. THIS IS A DECISION FOR
THE DAY SHIFT TO MAKE AFTER RECEIVING SOME VISUAL REPORTS
CONFIRMING THAT THE WAVES HAVE NOW IN FACT DECREASED BELOW
CRITERIA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASED WINDS MENTIONED
ABOVE...WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL IS FORECASTING A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AROUND FRIDAY. IF THE WINDS MATERIALIZE THIS COULD INDEED
HAPPEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KBDI CONTINUES ITS SLOW RELENTLESS CLIMB WITH NO END IN
SIGHT...REACHING 553 TODAY. OF NOTE...BOTH THE ECMWF HI-RES AND
GFS40 PREDICT A CHANCE OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL DEFINITELY BE A SITUATION TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR KOSRAE AND 
MAJURO UNTIL MONDAY. CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP CLOUDS 
AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER POHNPEI TODAY...THEN FAIR WEATHER WILL FOLLOW 
INTO MONDAY AS WELL. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THAT A 
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WET WEATHER FOR THE MARSHALL 
ISLANDS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK WESTWARD INTO 
KOSRAE AND THEN POHNPEI NEXT WEEK.
 
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL SUGGESTS HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE 
INTO MONDAY FOR KOSRAE. FOR MAJURO...SURF HEIGHTS HAS DECREASED 
BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTING POHNPEI IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CHUUK AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO 
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE ALSO PREDICT THE SAME 
TRADE DISTURBANCE SPREADING INTO CHUUK AROUND MID WEEK.

WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD CLOSER TO 
PALAU....INCREASING CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THE STATE INTO TONIGHT. RESIDUE CONVERGENCE WILL THEN 
KEEP CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. YAP WILL BE 
TOO FAR NORTH TO BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY THE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL 
FLOW WILL STREAM HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ISLAND FROM TIME TO TIME. BOTH 
STATES WILL THEN ENJOY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

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