Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 13 Feb 2008 01:51:28 -0600

241 
FXPQ60 PGUM 130751
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 PM CHST WED FEB 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MARIANAS TODAY. THIS TROUGH BROUGHT A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO GUAM.
A SHEAR LINE WAS NORTH OF ANATAHAN.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER AROUND UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO BELIEVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
MOVE ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS BOTH OF THESE ISLANDS. LOOKING
AT THE SATELLITE...CLOUDS FURTHER EAST LOOK A LITTLE THICKER. WITH
THE THICKER CLOUDS AND FACTORING IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE...I BROUGHT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR GUAM AND ROTA. KEPT THE
SHOWERS SCATTERED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. 

LOOKS LIKE THE SHEAR LINE THAT WAS NORTH OF ANATAHAN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PUSH DOWN FAR ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY WITH THE
SHEAR LINE AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

WITH THE WEATHER DRY AND LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED THE FIRE DANGER
RATING WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THE ONLY THING KEEPING US FROM RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS THE LIGHTER WINDS. THIS MAY CHANGE DURING THE
WEEKEND. 

&&
.MARINE...
EARLIER MODELS HAD PREDICTED A SIX FOOT NORTHERLY SWELL TO ARRIVE
TONIGHT IN THIS PORTION OF THE MARIANAS. OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
THAT IT HAD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY. MODELS KEEP THE NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN A MARGINAL EVENT THOUGH WITH SURF
GETTING NO HIGHER THAN 9 OR 10 FEET. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA... EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TRADE WIND TROUGH HAS WEAKENED WITH BROAD ZONES OF CLOUDINESS
INTERSPERSED WITH LARGE BREAKS. THE TROUGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO
A SINGLE LINE OF PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS ALONG 5N BY FRIDAY. HEAVIER
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH A
CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR ISLANDS IN THE LATITUDE BAND 4-6N.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN FOR MAJURO WILL BE FRIDAY...BUT
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. KOSRAE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY.

LATEST WAVE WATCH DATA SHOWS A LONG PERIOD (16 SEC) NORTHWEST SWELL 
OF 6-7 FT ARRIVING AT MAJURO ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD CAUSE HIGH 
SURF ON LAURA AND THE NORTHWEST ISLANDS OF THE ATOLL ON MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY. A LONG PERIOD NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT 
POHNPEI ON SUNDAY AND COULD PRODUCE HIGH SURF THERE. COMBINED SEAS 
OF 10-11 FT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY COULD BE A HAZARD TO 
SMALL BOATS IN POHNPEI STATE. AT THIS TIME...HIGH SURF AND HIGH SEAS 
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR KOSRAE...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MOSTLY FAVORABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRADE WIND TROUGH HAS WEAKENED WITH BROAD ZONES 
OF CLOUDINESS INTERSPERSED WITH LARGE BREAKS. THE TROUGH SHOULD 
STRENGTHEN INTO A SINGLE LINE OF PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS 
ALONG 5N BY FRIDAY. HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL 
SLOWLY INCREASE...WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR ISLANDS IN 
THE LATITUDE BAND 4-6N. THIS COULD BRING SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF TO 
WESTERN CHUUK AND SOUTHEASTERN YAP STATE. WET WEATHER WILL LIKELY 
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF CHUUK...YAP AND KOROR-BABELDAOB OVER THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. TRADE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT OVER MOST OF 
THE REGION. 

A NORTH SWELL OF 5-6 FEET WILL REACH CHUUK BY THURSDAY AND A 5-6 
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY BUT NEITHER IS EXPECTED TO  
REACH ADVISORY LEVEL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE 9-10 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAKING INTER 
ISLAND TRAVEL DANGEROUS. COMBINED SEAS OF 9-10 FT WILL MOVE INTO YAP 
AND PALAU WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. A 5 FT NORTH SWELL WILL 
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR YAP AND PALAU...BUT SURF SHOULD 
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/GUARD

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