Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2008 11:45:14 -0600

WTPN21 PGTW 121730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 121.0E TO 13.6N 114.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 121200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 120.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
WARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT METSAT AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS REVEAL AN
A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA IN-
DICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE LLCC WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CORE. THE UPPER LEVEL EN-
VIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS GOOD POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES OVER THE DISTURBANCE ARE LOW TO MODERATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 131730Z.//

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