Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 06 Feb 2008 01:56:28 -0600

478 
FXPQ60 PGUM 060756
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
556 PM CHST WED FEB 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MARIANAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL
ASH/GAS PLUME STREAMING WEST FROM ANATAHAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW WINDS SLACKING OFF A BIT THU/FRI...THEN PEAKING AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS. FIRE CONDITIONS WILL NEED
CLOSE MONITORING. ON THE MARIANAS WATERS...SEAS SHOULD BE 8 FEET
OR BELOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL...PRETTY QUIET FOR A WHILE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY ADJUSTMENT IS TO BRING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAJURO LATE 
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS 
LOW CLOUD TOPS SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVERGENCE 
BOUNDARY IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD MAJURO. OTHERWISE SPORADIC 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL STILL 
PERSIST OVER KOSRAE THRU SATURDAY...AND WILL ALSO SHIFT INTO POHNPEI 
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER 
DUE TO INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.

LATEST WW3 AND ALTIMETRY INDICATE SURF HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED TO BTW 9 
AND 10 FT ON POHNPEI AND WILL REMAIN SO THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. 
THEREFORE DECIDED TO CANCEL HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR POHNPEI. IT IS 
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO HAZARDOUS CRITERIA BY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR 
BOTH KOSRAE AND MAJURO...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 
FRIDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS TO YAP UNTIL THURSDAY AS CONVECTION 
IS STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE. FORECAST FOR KOROR IS PRETTY MUCH 
SAME AS PREVIOUS. MODELS ARE TRYING TO AMPLIFY THE NEXT TRADE-WIND 
DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE EASTERN MICRONESIA OVER BOTH STATES 
LATER THIS WEEKEND. DO NOT WANT TO JUMP INTO THIS CONCLUSION THIS 
EARLY. HELD OFF WET WEATHER TO CHUUK UNTIL FRIDAY SINCE THE SURFACE 
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS STILL SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ALSO GO 
AGAINST THE MODELS BY KEEPING NORTHEAST WIND FOR CHUUK INTO THURSDAY 
NIGHT...SINCE EASTERLY FLOW IS ONLY EVIDENT AT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE 
BASED ON SATELLITE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN

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