Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2008 01:09:11 -0600

378 
FXPQ60 PGUM 190709
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
509 PM CHST SAT JAN 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE...AND THE NEWLY REPAIRED
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN THE AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OLD SHEAR LINE REMNANT OVER ANATAHAN
AND PAGAN IN THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS...AND ANOTHER SHEAR LINE
NORTH OF THAT UP AROUND 19-20N.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAKENING SHEAR LINE INTO
THE MARIANAS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT IS JUST A GHOST OF
THE SHEAR LINE THAT THE MODELS WERE ADVERTISING 2 OR 3 DAYS AGO.
OF THE TWO SHEAR LINES SEEN ON SAT IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE ONE
FURTHER NORTH AT 19-20N IS THE ONE THE MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO
BRING DOWN. IT HAS MADE LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TODAY...AND EVEN
IF IT MAKES IT TO GUAM AND SAIPAN LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY THE MODELS
WEAKEN IT FURTHER AS IT COMES. THUS IT NOW APPEARS THAT WHILE THE
SHEAR LINE MAY BRING SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS TO THE ISLANDS FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...SHOWERS WILL NOT INCREASE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FORECAST OF SCATTERED. SO HAVE KEPT THE MOSTLY CLOUDY...
BUT HAVE GONE WITH ONLY ISOL SHOWERS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
IT APPEARS THE NORTH SWELL WILL RISE ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 10 FT
BY SUNDAY MORNING...SO HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR SUN MORN
THRU MON MORN. SURF CONTINUES JUST BELOW THE HAZARDOUS CRITERION
OF 9 FT ON NORTH-FACING REEFS. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT SITUATION
CAREFULLY...SINCE ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN THE NORTH SWELL WOULD
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG
THOSE NORTHERN REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL PROVIDE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SLACKEN TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MONDAY NIGHT OVER KOSRAE AND 
BY TUESDAY FOR POHNPEI AND MAJURO. THERE IS NO MAJOR WEATHER 
PRODUCER IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SURF FOR KOSRAE REMAINS NEAR ADVISORY-LEVEL FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH SOUTH OF PALAU IS NOT EXPECTED TO 
IMPACT CONDITIONS OVER PALAU AS THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. UNSTABLE WEATHER OVER CHUUK 
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY CLEAR IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THEREFORE...
EXPECT MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM 
     SUNDAY TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/BAQUI

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