Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 03:02:10 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220900Z-230600ZJAN2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5N
116.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 115.9E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER
THE LLCC, AS WELL AS A CONTINUED AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVERGENT
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 20-KNOT 220300Z SURFACE
WIND OBSERVATION WAS OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOWS THE LLCC IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING FOR LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA
SURFACE TEMERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE
INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
166.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 166.7W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE MULTIPLE LLCCS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD,
ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING. A 220039Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS CONVERGENT
BANDING ON THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS OF THE WESTERN-MOST
LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PAGO PAGO INDICATE SLP NEAR 997 MB
AND SUSTAINED WINDS AT 16 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS FAVOR-
ABLE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARING MOST OF THE CONVECTION OFF
THESE LOW LEVEL VORTICES TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24 THE MODELS
INDICATE AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE LLCC AS WELL AS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. ALTHOUGH OBSERVED PRESSURES ARE LOW WITH STRONG
WINDS ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE, THE LLCC IS
ELONGATED AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL.
THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B (1) TO
FAIR, UPDATED POSITION FOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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