Subject: Pacific SE: Tropical Disturbance Summary

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 08 Jan 2008 02:53:46 -0600

683 
WWPS21 NFFN 080600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 08/0853 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S 176.5W AT
080600UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OSERVATION. SST AROUND
28-29 DEGREE CELCIUS.
CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR THE LAST 6-12 HOURS WITH
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MORE EVIDENT AT THE SFC. 07F LIES IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LLCC PARTLY EXPOSED. GLOBAL MODELS
[AVN,EC,GFS] PREDICT SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE MODELS EXPECT 07F TO
MOVE SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN
THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.     

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.           

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