Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2008 01:50:37 -0600

887 
FXPQ60 PGUM 130750
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
550 PM CHST SUN JAN 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATED A QUIET FORECAST PERIOD AS TRADE-WIND
REGIME DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. A TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE NEAR SAIPAN AND TINIAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY CLEAR
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. MODIFIED SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND KEPT THE REST OF
THE GRIDS UNTOUCHED.

&&

.MARINE...
KEPT GRIDS THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. WW3 DATA SUGGEST A
NORTH SWELL OF 4 FEET ARRIVING ALONG NORTHERN EXPOSURES OF THE
MARIANAS BY WEDNESDAY. TRADE-WIND GENERATED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES
WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE RIP RISK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ELEVATE SURF
HEIGHTS NEAR ADVISORY-LEVEL.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS IN AN EAST-WEST BAND 
THAT SHOULD AFFECT POHNPEI AND MAJURO THROUGH TUE OR TUE NIGHT. 
KOSRAE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE ACTION UNTIL MON NIGHT...WHEN SHOWERS 
SHOULD MOVE IN AND PERSIST INTO WED. GFS SHOWS THE TW CONVERGENCE 
PETERING OUT FROM EAST TO WEST ON THU AND FRI.

LATEST WW3 MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES SURF HEIGHTS WILL DROP BELOW HIGH 
SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR CHUUK...POHNPEI AND 
KOSRAE...AND THEN RISE BACK TO ADVISORY LEVEL BY MONDAY NIGHT. SURF 
HEIGHTS ON MAJURO MAY APPROACH 15 FT MON NITE OR TUE...AND WILL NEED 
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGH SURF WARNING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE DISCUSSED ABOVE SHOULD BRING SCT SHOWERS TO 
CHUUK MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AFTER WHICH DRYING SETS IN AS GFS 
PUSHES BAND SOUTH OF CHUUK AND MAIN AREA OF CONVERGENCE MOVES WEST. 
FOR WED THROUGH FRI...THE TRADE DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE 
NEAR-EQ TROUGH AND THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION TAKING 
SHAPE. THIS SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOL THUNDER 
TO YAP/PALAU WED-FRI.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

BAQUI/MIDDLEBROOKE

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