Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2008 08:40:40 -0600

ABPW10 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201500Z-210600ZFEB2008//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201421ZFEB2008//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.1S 157.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.7S 162.7E, APPROXIMATELY
535 NM EAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
EAST BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THIS DISTURBANCE,
WHICH HAS LIMITED ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE DISTURBANCE IS
BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS TRACKING
RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 201430) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. DUE TO THE DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND INCREASING
INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1)
TO POOR.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

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