Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 03 Feb 2008 02:13:29 -0600

693 
FXPQ60 PGUM 030813
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
613 PM CHST SUN FEB 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTED INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
BRIEFLY TODAY. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASIC TRADE-WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW OF THE
MODELS DECREASE THE WINDS SLIGHTLY...BUT BELIEVE WINDS WILL STAY
AS IS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND DECREASE THEREAFTER. SPARSE RAINFALL
THROUGH FORECAST. VERY WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF
THE MARIANAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD. EARLIER FORECAST HAD MOSTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PROGRESSING THE CLOUDS ON THE
SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THEY WOULD REACH US NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SO WORDED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS VERY WEAK AND I WAS TEMPTED TO
JUST KEEP IT PARTLY CLOUDY...BUT PEGGED MY HOPES ON SOME DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT. GOING ALONG WITH THIS LINE OF THOUGHT...I KEPT THE
CLOUDS ON UNTIL AFTERNOON FIGURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY WOULD
BREAK UP ANY CLOUDS.

GFS HINTS AT A SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE
PASSING SOUTH OF GUAM SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF US
EVEN IF IT DOES DEVELOP. 

&&
.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE HERE. NORTHERLY SWELL AND EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST. NO MAJOR SWELLS OR SURF EVENTS ON THE
HORIZON AS OF YET. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED TODAY...BUT CANCELED WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS. FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS STILL UP UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY. MODELS
KEEP WINDS UP UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH MAYBE EXTENDED. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...

CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP 
SHOWERS OVER KOSRAE INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND POHNPEI INTO TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE MOVING INTO MAJURO THIS 
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE THUR MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TRADE 
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE DATELINE WILL BRING MORE WETNESS 
TO MAJURO ON TUESDAY BUT DRY TRADE PATTERN WILL RETURN QUICKLY BY 
MID-WEEK. THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT KOSRAE FROM TUESDAY 
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. POHNPEI SEEMS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE 
DIRECTLY AFFECTED AT THIS TIME. 

LATEST WW3 OUTPUT SHOWS DANGEROUS SURF WILL CONTINUE TO POUND THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN SHORES ON POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO THUR 
MID-WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MERGING OF A TRADE DISTURBANCE INTO THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH 
HAS CAUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT FURTHER NORTH TOWARD KOROR 
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REMAINING JUST 
SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND KOROR. THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD 
COVERAGE OVER KOROR FOR THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT KEEP 
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE 
STILL SPINNING UP A CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF KOROR BY WEDNESDAY BUT 
WILL NOT BUY IT FOR NOW. REGARDLESS...YAP WILL BE STAYING OUT OF ANY 
MAJOR ACTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WET WEATHER CURRENTLY OVER POHNPEI WILL EVENTUALLY REACH CHUUK BY 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY 
TRADES WILL DRY THINGS OUT BRIEFLY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER 
DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST MIGHT BRING MORE CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. WAVE 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY MIGHT BE 
NEEDED ON CHUUK BY MONDAY MORNING. EVENING SHIFT FORECASTER WILL 
HAVE THE FINAL SAY ON THIS.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MIGHT ALSO BE WARRANTED FOR YAP AND PALAU FROM 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEED TO BE MONITORED ON MONDAY. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

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