Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 27 Jan 2008 13:58:38 -0600

759 
FXPQ60 PGUM 271958
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
558 AM CHST MON JAN 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING GUAM AND
ROTA. THESE SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY PROPAGTING NORTH ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
MOVING SOUTHWEST...AND SHOULD THEREFORE REACH TINIAN AND SAIPAN A
LITTLE LATER TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEAR LINE IS SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH...BRINGING THE SHOWERS
BACK WITH IT. THEREFORE UPGRADED TODAY FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
TO ISOLATED. ALSO MADE THE FIRST TWO FORECAST PERIODS MOSTLY
CLOUDY. OTHERWISE...JUST REFRESHED THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FROM
THE MODEL SMART INITS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY WEEK AHEAD...BUT MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE BACKED OFF JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
ALSO...IT SEEMS WE MAY GET A WETTING RAIN TODAY AFTER ALL. THIS
WOULD MINIMIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED
FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER FORECAST...EXPECT SEASONABLE DRY TRADES 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL 
RUNS...MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERDO CURRENT PRECIP COVERAGE OVER 
EASTERN MICRONESIA. SO HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED POPS THROUGHOUT THE 
PERIOD.

APPROACHING NORTHERLY SWELLS HAVE WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH 
SURF ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR KOSRAE. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE 
ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY ISSUED FOR CHUUK AND POHNPEI. THESE LONG 
PERIOD NORTH SWELLS GENERATED BY A FETCH OF NORTHERLIES OVER THE 
NORTHWEST PAC WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTH FACING SHORES OF 
KOSRAE...CHUUK AND POHNPEI THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PALAU AND YAP AS TAIL END OF 
SHEAR LINE WAVERS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS 
TO BE SCANT ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT SCATTERED POPS. LATER IN THE 
WEEK...GFS PROGS THE SURGE IN TRADES CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN 
MICRONESIAN TO NOSE WESTWARD TOWARDS PALAU SO HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY 
CLOUDY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM THE 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY...TRADES CONVERGING EAST AND OVER CHUUK WILL 
GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/LEE

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