Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2008 01:34:53 -0600

574 
FXPQ60 PGUM 120734
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
534 PM CHST TUE FEB 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MARIANAS...AND
A SHEAR LINE IS EVIDENT ON VIS SAT IMAGERY A BIT OVER 300 MILES NW 
OF THE ISLANDS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH SE OF GUAM ALONG 148E
IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SOME SHOWERS ABOUT 150 MILES SE OF THE
ISLANDS. BETWEEN THE SHEAR LINE AND TROUGH...THE RIDGE IS KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VIRTUALLY NO SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS AND
THEIR COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS AND UKMET KEEP THE RIDGE OVER US TONIGHT...SO WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND UNUSUALLY COOL NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING DROPPED TO 72
AT THE GUAM AIRPORT AND INTO THE UPPER 60S IN SOME LOW INLAND
LOCATIONS. WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT THEN
INCREASED WINDS SHOULD KEEP NIGHTS WARMER THE REST OF THE WEEK.

MODELS BRING THE SHEAR LINE DOWN ON THURSDAY...AND THAT COMBINED
WITH THE WEAKENING TROUGH PASSING BY JUST SOUTH OF GUAM SHOULD
BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BACK INTO THE MARIANAS. 

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
WAVE-WATCH MODEL INDICATES THAT NORTH SWELL WILL INCREASE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND WE MAY NEED A HIGH SURF ADVY THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY
FOR NORTH-FACING EXPOSURES...ESPECIALLY FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS GENERATED BY TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS MOVED 
SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OUT OF THE 
FORECAST ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THESE 
TWO ISLANDS TONIGHT. THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET FOR A FEW DAYS. 
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS GENERATED BY TRADE-WIND 
CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. 
AT THE PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE 
GENERATED BY THIS AREA. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. 

WAVE WATCH MODELS SHOW A LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL ENTERING THE AREA 
AFTER FRIDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THEN.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE AREA OF SHOWERS GENERATED BY TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE MENTIONED 
ABOVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ACROSS CHUUK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  

FOR KOROR AND YAP...ANTICIPATE MAINLY PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. 

THE LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS FORECASTED BY THE WAVE WATCH MODELS TO
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA MAY BRING LARGE SWELLS TO CHUUK
STATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/ZIOBRO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.