Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 02:06:02 -0600

221 
FXPQ60 PGUM 230805
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
605 PM CHST WED JAN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHEAR LINE JUST SOUTH
OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RE-ORGANIZED
SHEAR LINE LIES AT ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF GUAM. RADAR DISPLAYS
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF ROTA AROUND 5 PM LOCAL TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CONTINENT OF ASIA EXTENDS
OVER THE MARIANAS AND IS PLAYING A MAJOR ROLE BY KEEPING THE
ISLANDS UNDER DRIER BUT FAVORABLE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER HIGH FARTHER NORTH OF GUAM WILL HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON LOCAL WEATHER BUT AT A MINIMAL AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS PROJECT
A DEVELOPING SHEAR LINE NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND GUAM BY LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION
AS IT MAY BRING WETTING RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&
.MARINE...
DISCONTINUED HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE EXPECTED NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELL TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK MAY BE THE FIRST BIG EVENT FOR THIS SEASON. WAVE
WATCH MODELS SUGGEST THE FIRST SWELL TREND TO ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY PEAK OVER 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. WILL RELY
HEAVILY ON SHIP AND SPOTTER REPORTS...AND WILL MONITOR COMPUTER
DATA TO JUSTIFY THIS EXPECTED EVENT.

&&
.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK TRADE-WND DISTURBANCE NORTH OF KOSRAE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD. LOOKING AT THE MODEL AND ALSO PROJECTING THE
SATELLITE MOTION. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE A FEW
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AFTER THAT RELATIVELY DRY NORTHEASTERLY TRADES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE SHOWS SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES ON 
POHNPEI SHOULD REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVEL OF 9 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. 

LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND AND PART OF NEXT WEEK. THESE NORTH SWELLS
MAY POSSIBLY GENERATE HAZARDOUS NEAR 10 FEET ON NORTHERN
EXPOSURES ON MONDAY AT POHNPEI...MONDAY NIGHT FOR KOSRAE AND LATE
MONDAY EARLY TUESDAY FOR MAJURO. THIS EVENT WILL BE WATCHED FOR
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF ADVISORIES.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE EQUATOR SOUTH OF
CHUUK AND YAP. MODELS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF YAP AND CHUUK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PALAU TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AFTER THAT PALAU WILL BE DRY.

TRADE-WIND INDUCE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON
EASTERN EXPOSURES FOR YAP AND PALAU STARTING THURSDAY. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THESE ISLANDS. THIS HIGH SURF
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
EPISODE OF BIG SWELLS MAY GENERATE MORE HAZARDOUS SURF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

BAQUI/ZIOBRO

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